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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The little CON polling flurry has come at a bad time for the l

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited February 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The little CON polling flurry has come at a bad time for the leadership plotters

We are living in a time when much of the talk at Westminster continues to be how many CON MPs have written to Graham Brady, 1922 Committee chair, asking for a vote of confidence to be held on Mrs. May. Once he’s received 48 of these Brady has to immediately set up a leadership ballot. The last time the process was invoked MPs were voting within 24 hours.

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Comments

  • Nah
  • She's doomed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,431
    edited February 6
    I think we may be seeing a similar effect to the beginning of the GE campaign when Labour infighting dominated the airwaves and crowded everyone else out.
  • FPT
    rcs1000 said:



    So, basically the most important thing is to look honest.

    I wonder if good/honest looking people are more likely to be acquitted.

    Male Jurors More Likely To Find Fat Women Guilty, According to Depressing Study

    https://tinyurl.com/LightBluesRockDarkBluesSuck
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,723

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:



    So, basically the most important thing is to look honest.

    I wonder if good/honest looking people are more likely to be acquitted.

    Male Jurors More Likely To Find Fat Women Guilty, According to Depressing Study

    https://tinyurl.com/LightBluesRockDarkBluesSuck
    Fat women are guilty of overeating?
  • I was told earlier on today that Graham Brady isn't required to hold a vote within 24 hours.

    In the case of IDS it just happened to be during the Parliamentary week when most MPs were nearby to hold the contest.

    If the sufficient number is triggered say on a Friday the vote would be on Monday.

    Plus there's a recess next week.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,657
    It would be bonkers to move on a leader who’s polling in the 40s, doubly so when it’s not clear that any named successor would be more popular nor do better in the Brexit negotiations. Leave her in place for another couple of years.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,601
    But - the plotters will actually start getting into gear if they think the next election is winnable. I mean, who wants to get all putschy, just to be remembered for leading them to defeat?

    So, with this polling - game on!!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,079
    In the country at large, the Tories are doing fine. 40% of the vote is very good 8 years into government. It would be higher still if headless chickens on the backbenches stopped throwing rocks at the Government, all gleefully reported by the enemies of our party and Brexit.

    We should keep buggering on.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,115

    She's doomed.

    Like Merkel, she'll be there in 10 years.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,075
    May was twenty points ahead. We know what happened next.

    I expect current polls are irrelevant to the machinations of the angry hoards behind her.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,657

    I was told earlier on today that Graham Brady isn't required to hold a vote within 24 hours.

    In the case of IDS it just happened to be during the Parliamentary week when most MPs were nearby to hold the contest.

    If the sufficient number is triggered say on a Friday the vote would be on Monday.

    Plus there's a recess next week.

    The Chairman, after consultation with the Leader, shall determine the actual date of such a vote which shall be held as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing.

    From: http://privatewww.essex.ac.uk/~tquinn/leadership_election_rules.htm

    I agree that if it’s late in the week or during a recess (when lots of ministers will be travelling) it might take a few days to arrange the vote.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,601
    Sean_F said:

    She's doomed.

    Like Merkel, she'll be there in 10 years.
    That will be one hell of a series of hung parliaments!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,261
    Sean_F said:

    She's doomed.

    Like Merkel, she'll be there in 10 years.
    Two years maybe, ten years no.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,817

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:



    So, basically the most important thing is to look honest.

    I wonder if good/honest looking people are more likely to be acquitted.

    Male Jurors More Likely To Find Fat Women Guilty, According to Depressing Study

    https://tinyurl.com/LightBluesRockDarkBluesSuck
    Does their evidence carry any weight?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,425
    What did for IDS was third place in the Brent East by election in late 2003, much as the Tory loss in Eastbourne contributed to Thatcher's downfall in 1990.

    At the moment with the Tory voteshare holding up, no alternative leader polling better than May and the local elections in May likely to be OK for the Tories nationally (helped by the collapse of UKIP) short of a by election disaster May will hold on until Brexit is done
  • Sandpit said:

    I was told earlier on today that Graham Brady isn't required to hold a vote within 24 hours.

    In the case of IDS it just happened to be during the Parliamentary week when most MPs were nearby to hold the contest.

    If the sufficient number is triggered say on a Friday the vote would be on Monday.

    Plus there's a recess next week.

    The Chairman, after consultation with the Leader, shall determine the actual date of such a vote which shall be held as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing.

    From: http://privatewww.essex.ac.uk/~tquinn/leadership_election_rules.htm

    I agree that if it’s late in the week or during a recess (when lots of ministers will be travelling) it might take a few days to arrange the vote.
    The plotters aren't as well co-ordinated as they were in 2003.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,115

    Sean_F said:

    She's doomed.

    Like Merkel, she'll be there in 10 years.
    That will be one hell of a series of hung parliaments!
    Like May, Merkel almost threw away her first election campaign, which she was expected to win easily. But, she did sufficiently well that no government could be formed without her. Like Merkel, she's fairly competent at administration, totally uncharismatic, and with few firm beliefs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,195
    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:



    So, basically the most important thing is to look honest.

    I wonder if good/honest looking people are more likely to be acquitted.

    Male Jurors More Likely To Find Fat Women Guilty, According to Depressing Study

    https://tinyurl.com/LightBluesRockDarkBluesSuck
    Does their evidence carry any weight?
    As long as they don't get a heavy sentence...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,723
    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:



    So, basically the most important thing is to look honest.

    I wonder if good/honest looking people are more likely to be acquitted.

    Male Jurors More Likely To Find Fat Women Guilty, According to Depressing Study

    https://tinyurl.com/LightBluesRockDarkBluesSuck
    Does their evidence carry any weight?
    Its not as if they didnt have enough on their plate without this
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,657

    Sandpit said:

    I was told earlier on today that Graham Brady isn't required to hold a vote within 24 hours.

    In the case of IDS it just happened to be during the Parliamentary week when most MPs were nearby to hold the contest.

    If the sufficient number is triggered say on a Friday the vote would be on Monday.

    Plus there's a recess next week.

    The Chairman, after consultation with the Leader, shall determine the actual date of such a vote which shall be held as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing.

    From: http://privatewww.essex.ac.uk/~tquinn/leadership_election_rules.htm

    I agree that if it’s late in the week or during a recess (when lots of ministers will be travelling) it might take a few days to arrange the vote.
    The plotters aren't as well co-ordinated as they were in 2003.
    Indeed. One of the dangers is that she’s upsetting both the Peter Bones and Anna Soubrys, for opposite reasons - the target number of letters could end up being received by accident rather than by design.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,723
    Dont know 11%
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,179
    Sean_F said:

    She's doomed.

    Like Merkel, she'll be there in 10 years.
    The Tories need to keep May until Brexit deal is done, then get her to step down and put a non-Boris, non-Mogg leader from the next generation in.

    There are two dangers for them. The first is panicking early and getting rid of May too soon. The second is getting complacent when they retake a decent lead after the deal and keeping her on.
  • Yer what?

    Clement Attlee should be a lot higher up that list.

    Not sure why Emmeline Pankhurst is so high on that list.

    Mind you, any girl who wants to chain herself to *my* railings and suffer a jet movement gets *my* vote!
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,179
    5% Guevara. That's the Momentum vote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,817
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:



    So, basically the most important thing is to look honest.

    I wonder if good/honest looking people are more likely to be acquitted.

    Male Jurors More Likely To Find Fat Women Guilty, According to Depressing Study

    https://tinyurl.com/LightBluesRockDarkBluesSuck
    Does their evidence carry any weight?
    As long as they don't get a heavy sentence...

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:



    So, basically the most important thing is to look honest.

    I wonder if good/honest looking people are more likely to be acquitted.

    Male Jurors More Likely To Find Fat Women Guilty, According to Depressing Study

    https://tinyurl.com/LightBluesRockDarkBluesSuck
    Does their evidence carry any weight?
    Its not as if they didnt have enough on their plate without this
    Put those two together and they would be really fed up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,601
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:



    So, basically the most important thing is to look honest.

    I wonder if good/honest looking people are more likely to be acquitted.

    Male Jurors More Likely To Find Fat Women Guilty, According to Depressing Study

    https://tinyurl.com/LightBluesRockDarkBluesSuck
    Does their evidence carry any weight?
    As long as they don't get a heavy sentence...
    Stone them.

    Twenty stone them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,943

    Yer what?

    Clement Attlee should be a lot higher up that list.

    Not sure why Emmeline Pankhurst is so high on that list.

    Mind you, any girl who wants to chain herself to *my* railings and suffer a jet movement gets *my* vote!
    Great shout.

    The NHS is also ridiculously high on the "proud to be British" list, whereas in truth the Magna Carta and Bill of Rights are far more important, IMHO.

    I put it down to a bad education.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,657
    Spacex launch now pushed to 20:45GMT. I think they’re gonna scrub.
    http://www.spacex.com/webcast
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,962
    Sean_F said:

    She's doomed.

    Like Merkel, she'll be there in 10 years.
    Jesus, you think Merkel has another 10 years in her.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,723
    5% dont respect any of them

    FFS which Northern Working Mens Club was this carried out in
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,657
    edited February 6

    Yer what?

    Clement Attlee should be a lot higher up that list.

    Not sure why Emmeline Pankhurst is so high on that list.

    Mind you, any girl who wants to chain herself to *my* railings and suffer a jet movement gets *my* vote!
    Great shout.

    The NHS is also ridiculously high on the "proud to be British" list, whereas in truth the Magna Carta and Bill of Rights are far more important, IMHO.

    I put it down to a bad education.
    They clearly didn’t ask anyone who has ever lived abroad, in any of these surveys that say people are proud of the NHS.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,428
    Sandpit said:

    Spacex launch now pushed to 20:45GMT. I think they’re gonna scrub.
    http://www.spacex.com/webcast

    Just as well: putting a used sports car into solar orbit is such an epic piece of trolling that the whole planet is toast when the first extraterrestrial notices it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,601

    5% dont respect any of them

    FFS which Northern Working Mens Club was this carried out in
    One hired by Donald Trump and Harvey Weinstein, on a night out with the lads?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,817
    I am always very uneasy about this modern fad for pardoning everybody who died years ago with a criminal record just because we don't approve of the laws they happened to be breaking. It seems to me to resemble the Mormon trait of ancestral baptism and to be about as meaningful.

    I have some sympathy with pardoning those still alive convicted under laws now repealed that left them with a criminal record, but I have to say I think it could be achieved differently.

    Also - serious question to the lawyers - under British law does accepting a pardon imply guilt, as in the US, or is it seen as an extension of the Royal Prerogative on justice?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,657
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    Spacex launch now pushed to 20:45GMT. I think they’re gonna scrub.
    http://www.spacex.com/webcast

    Just as well: putting a used sports car into solar orbit is such an epic piece of trolling that the whole planet is toast when the first extraterrestrial notices it.
    Martian orbit I think. Looks like they’re gonna go for it.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,957
    Why is this a trigger warning? Is there anyone who will be seriously upset by this?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,261

    Why is this a trigger warning? Is there anyone who will be seriously upset by this?
    I suspect the devotees of Clem and his representative on earth might be miffed at the loathed Thatcher polling significantly higher.....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,218
    ydoethur said:

    I am always very uneasy about this modern fad for pardoning everybody who died years ago with a criminal record just because we don't approve of the laws they happened to be breaking. [snip]

    In the case of the Suffragettes, some of the convictions were very much for offences which would still apply today - arson and bombings, for example. They'd be prosecuted under anti-terrorism laws nowadays.
  • Why is this a trigger warning? Is there anyone who will be seriously upset by this?
    Surprised, yes, but upset - really?

    Why is the Queen listed as a political figure?
  • Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,817
    edited February 6

    ydoethur said:

    I am always very uneasy about this modern fad for pardoning everybody who died years ago with a criminal record just because we don't approve of the laws they happened to be breaking. [snip]

    In the case of the Suffragettes, some of the convictions were very much for offences which would still apply today - arson and bombings, for example. They'd be prosecuted under anti-terrorism laws nowadays.
    Desertion, mutiny and murder are all still criminal offences today. That didn't stop the then government pardoning several hundred people executed in the First World War (most of whom on the first offence had been convicted and reprieved at least once already).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,601

    Why is this a trigger warning? Is there anyone who will be seriously upset by this?
    The LibDems. They were probably the 5% who voted "None of these", because of the lack of Saint Vince on that list.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,817

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Does Martin Luther King pass your test?
  • ydoethur said:

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Does Martin Luther King pass your test?
    Yup, he was Mr Non Violence
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,200

    Why is this a trigger warning? Is there anyone who will be seriously upset by this?
    Surprised, yes, but upset - really?

    Why is the Queen listed as a political figure?
    She may not express her opinions, but she's part of the political framework of the UK.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,957
    edited February 6

    Why is this a trigger warning? Is there anyone who will be seriously upset by this?
    The LibDems. They were probably the 5% who voted "None of these", because of the lack of Saint Vince on that list.
    The LDs on here don’t seem very keen on him (Foxy IIRC has never really been a fan, at least recently anyway). I have to say I’m finding the Lib Dems to be pretty underwhelming under Vince.
  • RobD said:

    Why is this a trigger warning? Is there anyone who will be seriously upset by this?
    Surprised, yes, but upset - really?

    Why is the Queen listed as a political figure?
    She may not express her opinions, but she's part of the political framework of the UK.
    Yeah, but stretching it a bit isn't it? Why not then, say, Mother Theresa, John Lennon, Stanley Matthews?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,928
    Elliot said:

    5% Guevara. That's the Momentum vote.
    Thatcher 22% v Attlee 6%

    Listen to the noisy left and you wouldn't imagine that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,115

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Who's the war criminal?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,962
    edited February 6
    Sean_F said:

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Who's the war criminal?
    Churchill, I presume.

    Edit to add, he said the following "I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against the uncivilized tribes… it would spread a lively terror."

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,115
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I am always very uneasy about this modern fad for pardoning everybody who died years ago with a criminal record just because we don't approve of the laws they happened to be breaking. [snip]

    In the case of the Suffragettes, some of the convictions were very much for offences which would still apply today - arson and bombings, for example. They'd be prosecuted under anti-terrorism laws nowadays.
    Desertion, mutiny and murder are all still criminal offences today. That didn't stop the then government pardoning several hundred people executed in the First World War (most of whom on the first offence had been convicted and reprieved at least once already).
    And that shows how silly it was.

  • Sean_F said:

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Who's the war criminal?
    Sir Winston Churchill.

    Dresden alone was a war crime.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,115

    Sean_F said:

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Who's the war criminal?
    Sir Winston Churchill.

    Dresden alone was a war crime.
    According to David Irving.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,041
    Very little MSM coverage of David Clews being raided - left to the Sun to report it

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/2191142/pro-union-activist-cops-donor-list-leak-david-clews/
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Who's the war criminal?
    Sir Winston Churchill.

    Dresden alone was a war crime.
    According to David Irving.
    And others.

    Churchill used chemical weapons as well.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,297

    Elliot said:

    5% Guevara. That's the Momentum vote.
    Thatcher 22% v Attlee 6%

    Listen to the noisy left and you wouldn't imagine that.
    Is that because many on the Left don't know who Attlee is?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,820
    HYUFD said:

    What did for IDS was third place in the Brent East by election in late 2003, much as the Tory loss in Eastbourne contributed to Thatcher's downfall in 1990.

    At the moment with the Tory voteshare holding up, no alternative leader polling better than May and the local elections in May likely to be OK for the Tories nationally (helped by the collapse of UKIP) short of a by election disaster May will hold on until Brexit is done

    Some high profile losses in the capital and the media narrative won't be so good...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,601
    edited February 6
    Sean_F said:

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Who's the war criminal?
    No Tony Blair on that list.

    How soon we forget.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,261
    Empire 2.0

    Below are a number of events and episodes in British history. Which, if any, make you especially proud to be British?
    Having the world’s largest empire in the 19th century
    Remain: 7
    Leave: 16

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iopahgu564/InternalResults_180205_Feminism_Suffragettes_w.pdf
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,261

    Sean_F said:

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Who's the war criminal?
    Sir Winston Churchill.

    Dresden alone was a war crime.
    According to Goebbels......

    Major railway junction 60 miles from the Eastern Front of no military value....no siree!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,297

    Empire 2.0

    Below are a number of events and episodes in British history. Which, if any, make you especially proud to be British?
    Having the world’s largest empire in the 19th century
    Remain: 7
    Leave: 16

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iopahgu564/InternalResults_180205_Feminism_Suffragettes_w.pdf

    A little counter intuitive, if not unexpected.
  • tlg86 said:

    Elliot said:

    5% Guevara. That's the Momentum vote.
    Thatcher 22% v Attlee 6%

    Listen to the noisy left and you wouldn't imagine that.
    Is that because many on the Left don't know who Attlee is?
    Nah. It is Chris Williamson telling the Corbynistas that Corbyn is better than Attlee.
  • IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    What did for IDS was third place in the Brent East by election in late 2003, much as the Tory loss in Eastbourne contributed to Thatcher's downfall in 1990.

    At the moment with the Tory voteshare holding up, no alternative leader polling better than May and the local elections in May likely to be OK for the Tories nationally (helped by the collapse of UKIP) short of a by election disaster May will hold on until Brexit is done

    Some high profile losses in the capital and the media narrative won't be so good...
    London losses and the media narrative won't be good. Sums up the London elite attitude to the rest of the country
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    The "plotters" will have a very long wait if they are waiting for Labour to pull ahead to the extent-shall we say-that Ed Miliband was ahead in 2012, or Neil Kinnock was ahead in 1990.

    We are living through a period when on past experience, the Opposition should be well ahead of the government. Its the most depressing time of the year, there is an NHS crisis, the prime minister lacks authority, her party is divided and publicly squabbling, the media is dominated by Remain propaganda, and yet astonishingly, this week the Tories are either level-pegging or ahead of Labour.

    I think Theresa May is pretty much guaranteed the keys of Number Ten until 2020. Even if there were a leaderhip contest, I think she would win it -and frankly if I were her having done so, the first thing I would do would be to sack both Johnson and Gove. I am sure there is a pantomime horse somewhere they could fill in the Summer season.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,261
    tlg86 said:

    Elliot said:

    5% Guevara. That's the Momentum vote.
    Thatcher 22% v Attlee 6%

    Listen to the noisy left and you wouldn't imagine that.
    Is that because many on the Left don't know who Attlee is?
    Some fascinating age skews.

    Nelson Mandela rated strongly (high 30s) across the board:

    Thatcher:
    18-24: 5
    65+: 40
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,962

    Sean_F said:

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Who's the war criminal?
    Sir Winston Churchill.

    Dresden alone was a war crime.
    According to Goebbels......

    Major railway junction 60 miles from the Eastern Front of no military value....no siree!
    Churchill was responsible for chemical weapons being used in Russia at the end of WW1. (And they were, at the time, banned by international treaty.)

    I don't think there was anything he did in WW2 that was a war crime.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,189

    Sean_F said:

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Who's the war criminal?
    Sir Winston Churchill.

    Dresden alone was a war crime.
    It's called war for a reason.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,398
    LibDem politics must be a nightmare.

    They're the only party that can point to unequivocal success in government. And yet, they don't bother.

    What they actually do is tart themselves up and promise some sort of favours to another party that has decided to line up behind the stupidest man in Christendom.

    Apart from those slight oddities.. They really should be the natural recipients of my vote, and yet they've never even been close to consideration.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,493
    The plotters have non-polling reasons to act.

    If there's a vote of confidence, what's the minimum number of MPs for Theresa May to be able to continue in practice? 200?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,428
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Who's the war criminal?
    Churchill, I presume.

    Edit to add, he said the following "I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against the uncivilized tribes… it would spread a lively terror."

    I am too tired to source this, but if you look at the context it is clear he was talking about tear gas. Indeed, that is implicit in your quotation, since a lethal gas would by definition kill people, so it would be odd to single out its secondary effect of spreading terror for special mention.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,195
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Who's the war criminal?
    Sir Winston Churchill.

    Dresden alone was a war crime.
    According to Goebbels......

    Major railway junction 60 miles from the Eastern Front of no military value....no siree!
    Churchill was responsible for chemical weapons being used in Russia at the end of WW1. (And they were, at the time, banned by international treaty.)

    I don't think there was anything he did in WW2 that was a war crime.
    And on the bombing of Kurdish tribes in Mesopotamia in the early Twenties.

    I have been inspired by recent films to read "Citizen Clem" the recent Attlee biography. I don't think he himself would be bothered by his place in that list. He seemed genuinely unassuming, and would be happy that his policies rather than personality were valued by posterity. It is a great book on prewar Britain btw.
  • The plotters have non-polling reasons to act.

    If there's a vote of confidence, what's the minimum number of MPs for Theresa May to be able to continue in practice? 200?

    218.

    She has to beat John Major's figure in 1995.
  • Billy bunters who collected on England during the ODIs will need little encouragement to keep backing the away side in the upcoming T20s. These bunfights are even more of a lottery but to the extent that form and ability count there is no reason to think Australia have the edge. Anything better than evens would appear to me charitable but Betfair are offering a juicy 2.32 against the Prisoners Of Mother England (11/8 in old money). Irresistible.

    Match starts 8.40 tomorrow morning.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    The plotters have non-polling reasons to act.

    If there's a vote of confidence, what's the minimum number of MPs for Theresa May to be able to continue in practice? 200?

    My understanding is that according to the new rules introduced in 1998, if the leader wins a simple majority he/she would continue in office. There are 317 Tory MPs, therefore May would require the votes of about 159 Tory MPs. I suspect she would get a lot more. I think she is quite safe whatever happens between now and 2019/20.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,315
    edited February 6
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Looking at that YouGov poll the top 5 includes 2 terrorists, a war criminal, and the country's biggest benefits sponger.

    I thought the British public had high standards, appears not.

    Who's the war criminal?
    Sir Winston Churchill.

    Dresden alone was a war crime.
    According to Goebbels......

    Major railway junction 60 miles from the Eastern Front of no military value....no siree!
    Churchill was responsible for chemical weapons being used in Russia at the end of WW1. (And they were, at the time, banned by international treaty.)

    I don't think there was anything he did in WW2 that was a war crime.
    And on the bombing of Kurdish tribes in Mesopotamia in the early Twenties.

    I have been inspired by recent films to read "Citizen Clem" the recent Attlee biography. I don't think he himself would be bothered by his place in that list. He seemed genuinely unassuming, and would be happy that his policies rather than personality were valued by posterity. It is a great book on prewar Britain btw.
    Sounds fascinating.

    You remind me of Churchill's remark that Atlee was a modest man with much to be modest about. I suspect Clem would have been happy with that!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,820

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    What did for IDS was third place in the Brent East by election in late 2003, much as the Tory loss in Eastbourne contributed to Thatcher's downfall in 1990.

    At the moment with the Tory voteshare holding up, no alternative leader polling better than May and the local elections in May likely to be OK for the Tories nationally (helped by the collapse of UKIP) short of a by election disaster May will hold on until Brexit is done

    Some high profile losses in the capital and the media narrative won't be so good...
    London losses and the media narrative won't be good. Sums up the London elite attitude to the rest of the country
    Cecil Parkinson extracted enough political capital from Tory gains in Wandsworth and Westminster, all those years ago, against a set of national local election results that were decidedly mediocre. What goes around comes around.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,179
    Who are the two terrorists? I presume you're now swallowing apartheid propaganda about Mandela. He never targeted civilians.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,179
    The Atlantic slave trade and the rape of the Congo both happened before women got the vote. Universal healthcare, the internet and space exploration all happened afterwards.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,817
    I do hope we don't read in the papers about a successful novelist being divorced by his wife for incorrigible chauvinism...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,601
    ydoethur said:

    I do hope we don't read in the papers about a successful novelist being divorced by his wife for incorrigible chauvinism...
    But she must have a serious sense of humour to have got this far....
  • Elliot said:

    Who are the two terrorists? I presume you're now swallowing apartheid propaganda about Mandela. He never targeted civilians.

    The Youth Wing of the Tory Party in the 80s used to wear 'Hang Nelson Mandela' badges because of the terrorism of the ANC.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,943
    edited February 6
    stevef said:

    The plotters have non-polling reasons to act.

    If there's a vote of confidence, what's the minimum number of MPs for Theresa May to be able to continue in practice? 200?

    My understanding is that according to the new rules introduced in 1998, if the leader wins a simple majority he/she would continue in office. There are 317 Tory MPs, therefore May would require the votes of about 159 Tory MPs. I suspect she would get a lot more. I think she is quite safe whatever happens between now and 2019/20.
    I'd say she needs 2/3rds of Tory MPs, about 214 MPs+, or to keep those that vote against her in double digits, so 220+ would be far safer.

    If she gets less than 200 MPs, even if it's a majority, she's toast.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,943
    I'm getting a bit fed up of the one-sided lauding of the Suffragettes.

    Many historians believe the militant wing of the WSPU actually set back the cause of women's suffrage, because their uncompromising extra judicial action put people off. Woman had the vote in local Government from 1897 onwards, and there were Bills in the HoC for votes for women from about 1905 onwards. Many Liberal MPs subsequently turned against women's suffrage because they were put off by the hardline campaign and even some of them thought that campaign vindicated arguments of their opponents.

    It was the quiet moderate majority that won woman the vote, and the very hard work so many millions of women did during WW1 to prove their point, not the publicity seeking Suffragettes.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,428
    Elliot said:

    Who are the two terrorists? I presume you're now swallowing apartheid propaganda about Mandela. He never targeted civilians.

    He also never said anything against Winnie's necklacing campaign, which very much targeted civilians. It takes about 20 minutes on average for a necklacing victim to die.
  • Since we seem to be drifting into Churchill territory, what's the general consensus here on the Darkest Hour film?

    Went to see it a week ago and liked it, but had some reservations.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    stevef said:

    The plotters have non-polling reasons to act.

    If there's a vote of confidence, what's the minimum number of MPs for Theresa May to be able to continue in practice? 200?

    My understanding is that according to the new rules introduced in 1998, if the leader wins a simple majority he/she would continue in office. There are 317 Tory MPs, therefore May would require the votes of about 159 Tory MPs. I suspect she would get a lot more. I think she is quite safe whatever happens between now and 2019/20.
    I'd say she needs 2/3rds of Tory MPs, about 214 MPs+, or to keep those that vote against her in double digits, so 220+ would be far safer.

    If she gets less than 200 MPs, even if it's a majority, she's toast.
    The rules require her only to have a simple majority in a confidence vote which is around 159 votes. True, it would be very embarrassing if she only received that bare majority or close to it. But if she were determined to go on, then she would be entitled to do so. After all, she carried on after the embarrassment of the lost majority in 2017, and after the disastrous conference speech.........
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,297

    I'm getting a bit fed up of the one-sided lauding of the Suffragettes.

    Many historians believe the militant wing of the WSPU actually set back the cause of women's suffrage, because their uncompromising extra judicial action put people off. Woman had the vote in local Government from 1897 onwards, and there were Bills in the HoC for votes for women from about 1905 onwards. Many Liberal MPs subsequently turned against women's suffrage because they were put off by the hardline campaign and even some of them thought that campaign vindicated arguments of their opponents.

    It was the quiet moderate majority that won woman the vote, and the very hard work so many millions of women did during WW1 to prove their point, not the publicity seeking Suffragettes.

    My mum's not impressed. Her grandmother didn't get the vote until 1928.
  • The late Ian Mikardo MP once advised me never to bet on a two horse race, but I wonder, who is going to go first, TMay or JZuma? Is anyone giving odds?
  • stevef said:

    stevef said:

    The plotters have non-polling reasons to act.

    If there's a vote of confidence, what's the minimum number of MPs for Theresa May to be able to continue in practice? 200?

    My understanding is that according to the new rules introduced in 1998, if the leader wins a simple majority he/she would continue in office. There are 317 Tory MPs, therefore May would require the votes of about 159 Tory MPs. I suspect she would get a lot more. I think she is quite safe whatever happens between now and 2019/20.
    I'd say she needs 2/3rds of Tory MPs, about 214 MPs+, or to keep those that vote against her in double digits, so 220+ would be far safer.

    If she gets less than 200 MPs, even if it's a majority, she's toast.
    The rules require her only to have a simple majority in a confidence vote which is around 159 votes. True, it would be very embarrassing if she only received that bare majority or close to it. But if she were determined to go on, then she would be entitled to do so. After all, she carried on after the embarrassment of the lost majority in 2017, and after the disastrous conference speech.........
    And I think the wider public will be very annoyed with the party indulging in fighting and overthrowing May at this time
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840

    The late Ian Mikardo MP once advised me never to bet on a two horse race, but I wonder, who is going to go first, TMay or JZuma? Is anyone giving odds?

    Ian Mikardo told me never to drop names.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,115
    It's interesting how few people describe themselves as feminists. Almost everybody would agree with votes for women, womens' rights to own property, equal pay etc., but many people find feminism off-putting.
  • tlg86 said:

    I'm getting a bit fed up of the one-sided lauding of the Suffragettes.

    Many historians believe the militant wing of the WSPU actually set back the cause of women's suffrage, because their uncompromising extra judicial action put people off. Woman had the vote in local Government from 1897 onwards, and there were Bills in the HoC for votes for women from about 1905 onwards. Many Liberal MPs subsequently turned against women's suffrage because they were put off by the hardline campaign and even some of them thought that campaign vindicated arguments of their opponents.

    It was the quiet moderate majority that won woman the vote, and the very hard work so many millions of women did during WW1 to prove their point, not the publicity seeking Suffragettes.

    My mum's not impressed. Her grandmother didn't get the vote until 1928.
    There's actually a rather good reason for that - because of the carnage of WW1, if there had been universal adult suffrage the electoral roll would have been people who had never voted before. Not saying it's a justification, but it was a concern at the time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,075
    edited February 6
    He's the next Katie Hopkins. Suspect Boris will make him women's minister. What an arsehole.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,742
    T -30 mins....
  • Sean_F said:

    It's interesting how few people describe themselves as feminists. Almost everybody would agree with votes for women, womens' rights to own property, equal pay etc., but many people find feminism off-putting.

    I heard someone call herself a feminine feminism today
  • The late Ian Mikardo MP once advised me never to bet on a two horse race, but I wonder, who is going to go first, TMay or JZuma? Is anyone giving odds?

    Ian Mikardo told me never to drop names.
    I mentioned him solely because he was an MP who ran a lucrative side-line in betting on politics, and was thus an authority on the subject.
This discussion has been closed.