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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The little CON polling flurry has come at a bad time for the l

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Cheddar Man looks an interesting fellow:

    twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/960997339111583744

    Justin Trudeau will be along in a mo to complain that it should be Cheddar manPerson....
    I'll be glad to see the back of him. Canadians seem to have realised what a complete numpty he is, it's a shame it took them this long and that they got taken in by the charlatan.
    Can an authentic airhead still be a charlatan?
    Trudeau exists in a happy place where his opponents vastly under-estimate him. He is the leader of the natural Party of Government. He dragged them out of third place. Why he is so under-estimated remains a mystery.
    What was the natural party of government doing in third place? ;)
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    HYUFD said:
    A reminder that the ballot paper referred to Welsh Labour /Llafur Cymru. Their leader isn't called Jeremy.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Cheddar Man looks an interesting fellow:

    twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/960997339111583744

    Justin Trudeau will be along in a mo to complain that it should be Cheddar manPerson....
    I'll be glad to see the back of him. Canadians seem to have realised what a complete numpty he is, it's a shame it took them this long and that they got taken in by the charlatan.
    Can an authentic airhead still be a charlatan?
    Trudeau exists in a happy place where his opponents vastly under-estimate him. He is the leader of the natural Party of Government. He dragged them out of third place. Why he is so under-estimated remains a mystery.
    What was the natural party of government doing in third place? ;)
    Badly led.
    Tories take note. :)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,002
    edited February 2018
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Cheddar Man looks an interesting fellow:

    twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/960997339111583744

    Justin Trudeau will be along in a mo to complain that it should be Cheddar manPerson....
    I'll be glad to see the back of him. Canadians seem to have realised what a complete numpty he is, it's a shame it took them this long and that they got taken in by the charlatan.
    Can an authentic airhead still be a charlatan?
    Trudeau exists in a happy place where his opponents vastly under-estimate him. He is the leader of the natural Party of Government. He dragged them out of third place. Why he is so under-estimated remains a mystery.
    Agreed, alongside Macron Trudeau is the most electorally successful and charismatic centre left leader in the western world at the moment
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2018
    Update on Falcon Heavy...

    Center Core looks like it ran out of the igniter on two of three engines. Hit the water at 300 mph

    Does Direct Line standard cover pay out for such accidents?
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    It’s ironic - but it’s actually JRM and his breed of Brexiteers who are to blame (at least in part) for this latest EU plan/punishment.

    If he hadn’t been so keen on the UK ignoring its obligations to, for instance, wait until we leave before negotiating trade deals, then the EU wouldn’t have though it necessary to build in safeguards for the UK trying to screw them over.

    I guess what goes around comes around.

    So we should have just agreed to the £100bn bill then?
    We should have never suggested that we would avoid paying our obligations.

    Theresa Mays line on the bill was basically okay -
    the problem was certain Brexiteers like JRM saying we wouldn’t give them a penny without a trade deal.
    And I think you will find that is TM position without a trade deal agreed in principle
    TM to her credit has always said we would meet our obligations.
    We will pay whatever deal is agreed.
    Yes but the point is an agreed deal

    The penalty clauses will only exist if there is an agreement.

    Amazing. The EU want the UK to sign up to the Brexit Bill and there will be penalties if we do not comply. Yet the EU don't want to sign up to the trade agreement and they will be free to welch on what they promise at any time. But that is OK if you are a Remainer....
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,288
    edited February 2018
    Not sure if already mentioned but Parliament breaking up for half term recess tomorrow (Thurs).

    Will provide brief respite for Theresa May - vote of no confidence challenge surely impossible in practice when MPs not at Westminster.

    Parliament returns on Tuesday 20 February.

    This also means that unless a GE is called by midnight tomorrow then the earliest possible legal date for a GE will become Thursday 29 March.

    Obviously all very unlikely but I think that would then make it effectively impossible for Corbyn to win in time to do anything to 2017/18 tax rates, allowances etc.

    So anyone worried about a Corbyn Govt should now take the opportunity to carry out any tax planning measures - eg realise large capital gains, receive dividends etc before 5 April 2018.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Cheddar Man looks an interesting fellow:

    twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/960997339111583744

    Justin Trudeau will be along in a mo to complain that it should be Cheddar manPerson....
    I'll be glad to see the back of him. Canadians seem to have realised what a complete numpty he is, it's a shame it took them this long and that they got taken in by the charlatan.
    Can an authentic airhead still be a charlatan?
    Trudeau exists in a happy place where his opponents vastly under-estimate him. He is the leader of the natural Party of Government. He dragged them out of third place. Why he is so under-estimated remains a mystery.
    What was the natural party of government doing in third place? ;)
    Canadian politics can be quite volatile; back in the 90s their Tories were reduced to just two seats in one election.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,996
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    What's the betting Zuma wants a full pardon for his kleptomania - and to get to keep his ill-gotten gains. Or he's going nowhere.....

    It would be excellent to see Mugabe and Zuma deposed within a few months of each other.
    I won't hold my breath that either of their successors will be any better though.
    I met Cyril Ramaphosa in my old job (we were the largest European shareholders of MTN for a time), and he came across as a very intelligent, extremely driven, and very un-ideological guy. Now, I realise he may have been putting on an act for Western finance people, but he was head and shoulders above any of the other South African CEOs (black or white) that I met at the time.
    As a matter of interest, when you meet CEOs, what factors give you such an impression? Are there specific things (e.g. knowing their brief), or is it mostly undefinable?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,986
    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Cheddar Man looks an interesting fellow:

    twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/960997339111583744

    Justin Trudeau will be along in a mo to complain that it should be Cheddar manPerson....
    I'll be glad to see the back of him. Canadians seem to have realised what a complete numpty he is, it's a shame it took them this long and that they got taken in by the charlatan.
    Can an authentic airhead still be a charlatan?
    Trudeau exists in a happy place where his opponents vastly under-estimate him. He is the leader of the natural Party of Government. He dragged them out of third place. Why he is so under-estimated remains a mystery.
    What was the natural party of government doing in third place? ;)
    Canadian politics can be quite volatile; back in the 90s their Tories were reduced to just two seats in one election.

    Unpopular leader, splits.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    rpjs said:


    Canadian politics can be quite volatile; back in the 90s their Tories were reduced to just two seats in one election.

    Unpopular leader, splits.
    Is that a forecast for our UK Tories,Mr Cole? I think it could well be.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    John_M said:

    Charles said:

    John_M said:

    Hope everyone remembers that it's also the 100th anniversary of when working class blokes also got the vote ;)

    And it only took a mere 700k deaths to get it, including all four of my great grandfathers.
    We’ve documented 72 family members killed in the Great War (including my great grandfather)
    I concede the field...
    We collected their obituaries in a single book in 2014 - it's a surprising emotional experience reading them given that (obviously!) I didn't know any of them.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Remember when Brexit was going to destroy the London property market?

    twitter.com/thomasknox/status/960994749363744769

    Just wait until Commie Corbyn gets in and steals their second homes....
    Another excellent reason to vote Labour :)
    Are you serious - maybe come after your £200,000 and land investments as well
    Nah, I will have cashed up and left the game by then.

    I am planning a retirement village on my paddock, 50 or so, along with a builder partner. Designed to provide low intensity social care at an affordable price
    I had lunch with the ceos of one of the big healthcare real estate investors - a lot of very big players are moving into that space, and mom and pops are getting squeezed out by the increased compliance burden. Just do it with your eyes open.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    It’s ironic - but it’s actually JRM and his breed of Brexiteers who are to blame (at least in part) for this latest EU plan/punishment.

    If he hadn’t been so keen on the UK ignoring its obligations to, for instance, wait until we leave before negotiating trade deals, then the EU wouldn’t have though it necessary to build in safeguards for the UK trying to screw them over.

    I guess what goes around comes around.

    So we should have just agreed to the £100bn bill then?
    We should have never suggested that we would avoid paying our obligations.

    Theresa Mays line on the bill was basically okay -
    the problem was certain Brexiteers like JRM saying we wouldn’t give them a penny without a trade deal.
    We never did. We just asked them to justify the number.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,986
    PClipp said:

    rpjs said:


    Canadian politics can be quite volatile; back in the 90s their Tories were reduced to just two seats in one election.

    Unpopular leader, splits.
    Is that a forecast for our UK Tories,Mr Cole? I think it could well be.
    Sadly, my forecasts are usually wrong. So I'm jusr reporting.

    However.........
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    It’s ironic - but it’s actually JRM and his breed of Brexiteers who are to blame (at least in part) for this latest EU plan/punishment.

    If he hadn’t been so keen on the UK ignoring its obligations to, for instance, wait until we leave before negotiating trade deals, then the EU wouldn’t have though it necessary to build in safeguards for the UK trying to screw them over.

    I guess what goes around comes around.

    So we should have just agreed to the £100bn bill then?
    We should have never suggested that we would avoid paying our obligations.

    Theresa Mays line on the bill was basically okay -
    the problem was certain Brexiteers like JRM saying we wouldn’t give them a penny without a trade deal.
    And I think you will find that is TM position without a trade deal agreed in principle
    TM to her credit has always said we would meet our obligations.
    We will pay whatever deal is agreed.
    Yes but the point is an agreed deal

    The penalty clauses will only exist if there is an agreement.

    Amazing. The EU want the UK to sign up to the Brexit Bill and there will be penalties if we do not comply. Yet the EU don't want to sign up to the trade agreement and they will be free to welch on what they promise at any time. But that is OK if you are a Remainer....
    How in Heavens name can the consequences of leaving be something you think can be blamed on the advocates of remaining?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,986

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    It’s ironic - but it’s actually JRM and his breed of Brexiteers who are to blame (at least in part) for this latest EU plan/punishment.

    If he hadn’t been so keen on the UK ignoring its obligations to, for instance, wait until we leave before negotiating trade deals, then the EU wouldn’t have though it necessary to build in safeguards for the UK trying to screw them over.

    I guess what goes around comes around.

    So we should have just agreed to the £100bn bill then?
    We should have never suggested that we would avoid paying our obligations.

    Theresa Mays line on the bill was basically okay -
    the problem was certain Brexiteers like JRM saying we wouldn’t give them a penny without a trade deal.
    And I think you will find that is TM position without a trade deal agreed in principle
    TM to her credit has always said we would meet our obligations.
    We will pay whatever deal is agreed.
    Yes but the point is an agreed deal

    The penalty clauses will only exist if there is an agreement.

    Amazing. The EU want the UK to sign up to the Brexit Bill and there will be penalties if we do not comply. Yet the EU don't want to sign up to the trade agreement and they will be free to welch on what they promise at any time. But that is OK if you are a Remainer....
    How in Heavens name can the consequences of leaving be something you think can be blamed on the advocates of remaining?
    As a Remainer I'm used to be blamed for everything Brexit going wrong.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Surely complacency is to blame 2017 on May and her campaign team.
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    I can't remember what 49, 4, and 499 are in Roman numerals, am I LIVID ?
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    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Cheddar Man looks an interesting fellow:

    twitter.com/The_ChrisShaw/status/960997339111583744

    Hardly surprising given that Man originated in Africa.
    Since 2017 it has been thought that the origin of man may well be Europe not Africa.

    See the New Scientist at

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2132026-our-common-ancestor-with-chimps-may-be-from-europe-not-africa/
This discussion has been closed.