Whatever happens, though, Corbyn is not going to be PM: 40% of the country will never vote for a party he leads and that will be enough to keep the Tories in office, if not in power, whoever leads them.
More than 40% voted for him last year.
If the Tories get 40% or more of the vote they are highly likely to get most seats given the in-built advantage they now have.
Sure, but you said 40% would never vote for him. That's not true.
I do reckon that we have a long way to go to understanding what is going on in the Labour party. Whilst we are not from the far left, there are some good things going. It is churlish to deny that Corbyn managed to connect with many people in a way that no-one has in years. It's not just hype.
And 40% won't. My point is that a Tory 40% will produce more seats than a Labour 40%. And the Tories have 40% more or less banked for as long as Corbyn is Labour leader.
Sorry @Southamobserver the idea Corbyn can't hit 40.0% is a nonsense and was disproved at GE2017.
Corbyn, Labour
12,878,460 40.0%
Turnout was decent too.
I am saying that with him as Labour leader the Tories have 40% banked.
Wow, the Tories must have done incredibly badly with swing voters in the last election then.
Off topic, but pb-related - does anyone know where I can get map templates of constituencies (preferably in groups by region) which are blank and capable of being coloured in?
The smell of Labour hubris is not a faint whiff, but a full-blown stink. If the Tories skip a generation and go for someone like Johnny Mercer then a substantial majority is theirs for the taking.
However, I suspect that a high-profile, pro-Brexit leader like Johnson or the Moggster would polarise opinion and keep the current Labour coalition together. I would certainly be looking to deny the Tories a majority if either of them were to take charge and in the Labour marginal where I live I would cast my vote accordingly.
Whatever happens, though, Corbyn is not going to be PM: 40% of the country will never vote for a party he leads and that will be enough to keep the Tories in office, if not in power, whoever leads them.
I knew you’d find a way to rationalise voting Labour despite Corbyn... you always do
Interesting idea. Don't know how a couple would fancy paying up to £3600/yr to cover a relatively small risk though.
Any solution that involves the tory client vote paying any more for their own care - at the expense of their offpsring - is a non-starter, while they remain in power.
It goes against the fundamental conservative principle that labour should subsidise capital.
Residential care is already paid for out of capital down to the last £23k, just not personal care. I have no problem with national insurance, pension care solutions etc being used to cover rising care costs
It kicks the Irish border question to the next cliff edge at the end of the "transition" period, ie end of 2020. Mrs May will be OK with this. Her entire focus is on surviving until March next year.
Not sure that's right. Remember that the UK solutions have to be agreeable to the EU27. If regulatory alignment is the agreed fall-back, then we are beholden to the EU27. IN other words we have no real sovereign decision-making power here. The EU27 may not make a final call until 2020, but the principle will be legally enshrined. It's hard to believe that the Moggster and his mates will not notice that.
Hmm. Possibly. It depends when the UK government has to demonstrate their solutions will work. The "creative and bold solutions that we haven't a clue about yet blah blah". Of course they won't be able to demonstrate that and probably won't seriously try. If they have to demonstrate feasibility before October this year, there won't be a transition arrangement or Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement. It's in everyone's interest to set the default to trigger after we have left, and in the EU's interest to do so before the next cliff edge at the end of 2020.
The UK government has committed to no hard borders between both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and between NI and Mainland Britain. There is one way to do that: the whole of the UK stays in the Single Market and Customs Union. We are not on board for that right now.
Off topic, but pb-related - does anyone know where I can get map templates of constituencies (preferably in groups by region) which are blank and capable of being coloured in?
Jeez it's Friday afternoon and that's the most interesting off-topic you can come up with??
May signed her political death warrant the moment she agreed to regulatory alignment to resolve the NI question just so she could achieve 'sufficient progress'.
It is simply utterly incompetent, stupid, idiotic and brainless to enter into negotiation with someone promising them that if you cannot agree then they will get what they always wanted by default. A CETA deal with no services and full alignment - how could the UK Government possibly come up with a worse endgame?
It is testament to the full control that the civil service have taken over her and Davis that she included this, the effect of which can only be to deliberately undermine the UK's own negotiating position.
Luckily Barnier is being his usual arrogant self. At this rate JRM might be Prime Minister by Easter. The first phase agreement was always going to fall apart under the weight of its own contradictions.
Regulatory alignment can just mean mutual recognition of the other side's regulations. We can just commit to recognise their regulations in Northern Ireland. If they want to not recogise ours and put a border up, we haven't breached any connitments.
May signed her political death warrant the moment she agreed to regulatory alignment to resolve the NI question just so she could achieve 'sufficient progress'.
It is simply utterly incompetent, stupid, idiotic and brainless to enter into negotiation with someone promising them that if you cannot agree then they will get what they always wanted by default. A CETA deal with no services and full alignment - how could the UK Government possibly come up with a worse endgame?
It is testament to the full control that the civil service have taken over her and Davis that she included this, the effect of which can only be to deliberately undermine the UK's own negotiating position.
Luckily Barnier is being his usual arrogant self. At this rate JRM might be Prime Minister by Easter. The first phase agreement was always going to fall apart under the weight of its own contradictions.
The smell of Labour hubris is not a faint whiff, but a full-blown stink. If the Tories skip a generation and go for someone like Johnny Mercer then a substantial majority is theirs for the taking.
However, I suspect that a high-profile, pro-Brexit leader like Johnson or the Moggster would polarise opinion and keep the current Labour coalition together. I would certainly be looking to deny the Tories a majority if either of them were to take charge and in the Labour marginal where I live I would cast my vote accordingly.
Whatever happens, though, Corbyn is not going to be PM: 40% of the country will never vote for a party he leads and that will be enough to keep the Tories in office, if not in power, whoever leads them.
Not necessarily Corbyn could become PM even if second on seats with SNP, Plaid and Green support
It’s not impossible that a dozen LDs hold the balance of power between a Con/DUP coalition on one side, and a Lab/Nat/Grn one on the other - with neither having a majority.
Off topic, but pb-related - does anyone know where I can get map templates of constituencies (preferably in groups by region) which are blank and capable of being coloured in?
Jeez it's Friday afternoon and that's the most interesting off-topic you can come up with??
It's for my benefit, no one else's. (Not yet anyway).
They are still second even on that poll and given the first placed Ciudadanos' position on Catalonia is also no independence referendum or independence it does not really change much on that front either unless they are really prepared to offer significantly more autonomy to the Catalans than the PP
Cs is led by a Catalan who speaks Catalan. The separatist claim is that Spain marginalises and disdains Catalonia. If the next Spanish PM comes from Barcelona and has a number of Catalan seats that narrative is impossible to sustain. The separatists are terrified of Cs. They need PP in power. But PP's vote is collapsing.
WRT the local elections, on current trends, they should be quite good for the Tories in May. The big headline losses will be in 2019, when the party is defending thousands of seats which it won in 2015.
London will surely be a bloodbath though and given the media's focus on the capital that will be the big story
On topic, Labour have to keep their coalition together and the Conservatives have to keep theirs. With or without a new leader, the Conservatives' job looks much harder after Brexit. What's their coalition's continuing purpose?
To run the country well, of course. That's always been the purpose, and it will be easier to keep the coalition together after Brexit.
Having spent years pursuing ideological zealotry, if the Tories try to claim pragmatism they will be laughed to scorn.
You regard anyone who disagrees with your own ideology as being a zealot.
We can all pick historic parallels and then note consequences to suit a conclusion. Major also polled 14m+ votes - if the next Tory leader does that, he or she will almost certainly win.
I expect that whichever party looks more like a government will be more important in determining who wins than the record of the previous few years. If the Tories are divided and indulging in bitter infighting, Labour will win. On the other hand, if they're led by someone capable of putting forward a positive vision for the country (and willing to do so!), and the party is seen as having managed Brexit as well as was manageable in the circumstances, Labour will remain out of power for another five years.
You're absolutely right about historic parallels being subjective. Major is often cited by Tories as a model to follow, whilst forgetting he had a much easier task because he inherited a 100 seat majority. The incoming Tory leader can only afford to lose and handful of seats. That's a big ask after 12 years, whoever is in the job.
Kinnock had a much bigger SDP Liberal Alliance vote in 1992 to squeeze though, the LDs have been squeezed about as low as they will go
WRT the local elections, on current trends, they should be quite good for the Tories in May. The big headline losses will be in 2019, when the party is defending thousands of seats which it won in 2015.
London will surely be a bloodbath though and given the media's focus on the capital that will be the big story
cf. the Richmond & Sleaford by-elections; obviously a gain is more exciting but the coverage of the latter was woeful.
Looking further forward, 2021 probably won't be great for the Tories given the triumphs of May 2017.
The smell of Labour hubris is not a faint whiff, but a full-blown stink. If the Tories skip a generation and go for someone like Johnny Mercer then a substantial majority is theirs for the taking.
However, I suspect that a high-profile, pro-Brexit leader like Johnson or the Moggster would polarise opinion and keep the current Labour coalition together. I would certainly be looking to deny the Tories a majority if either of them were to take charge and in the Labour marginal where I live I would cast my vote accordingly.
Whatever happens, though, Corbyn is not going to be PM: 40% of the country will never vote for a party he leads and that will be enough to keep the Tories in office, if not in power, whoever leads them.
Not necessarily Corbyn could become PM even if second on seats with SNP, Plaid and Green support
It’s not impossible that a dozen LDs hold the balance of power between a Con/DUP coalition on one side, and a Lab/Nat/Grn one on the other - with neither having a majority.
Perfectly possible yes, in which case we would probably return to the single market and customs union post transition as the price of their support. That likely means a minority Labour government as the Tories could not afford to revive UKIP band annoy their base by agreeing to that and leaving free movement in place though of course it would carry risks for Labour too in working class seats
On topic, Labour have to keep their coalition together and the Conservatives have to keep theirs. With or without a new leader, the Conservatives' job looks much harder after Brexit. What's their coalition's continuing purpose?
To run the country well, of course. That's always been the purpose, and it will be easier to keep the coalition together after Brexit.
Having spent years pursuing ideological zealotry, if the Tories try to claim pragmatism they will be laughed to scorn.
You regard anyone who disagrees with your own ideology as being a zealot.
One government minister last week decried all treasury estimates as worthless and accused civil servants of conspiring to undermine the government. Another said that we should proceed by evidence not dogma. Guess which one got censured by his superiors?
This is the most mindlessly ideological government in living memory.
On topic, Labour have to keep their coalition together and the Conservatives have to keep theirs. With or without a new leader, the Conservatives' job looks much harder after Brexit. What's their coalition's continuing purpose?
To run the country well, of course. That's always been the purpose, and it will be easier to keep the coalition together after Brexit.
Having spent years pursuing ideological zealotry, if the Tories try to claim pragmatism they will be laughed to scorn.
You regard anyone who disagrees with your own ideology as being a zealot.
The smell of Labour hubris is not a faint whiff, but a full-blown stink. If the Tories skip a generation and go for someone like Johnny Mercer then a substantial majority is theirs for the taking.
However, I suspect that a high-profile, pro-Brexit leader like Johnson or the Moggster would polarise opinion and keep the current Labour coalition together. I would certainly be looking to deny the Tories a majority if either of them were to take charge and in the Labour marginal where I live I would cast my vote accordingly.
Whatever happens, though, Corbyn is not going to be PM: 40% of the country will never vote for a party he leads and that will be enough to keep the Tories in office, if not in power, whoever leads them.
I knew you’d find a way to rationalise voting Labour despite Corbyn... you always do
I didn't in June 2017. But Johnson, Rees Mogg and the other Brexit loons are fanatics. I would do all I could to prevent them holding power.
Unlock the talent of minority ethnic people. And then, when they succeed beyond what we deem appropriate, we castigate them for being oppressors, manipulators, and international elites.
Whatever happens, though, Corbyn is not going to be PM: 40% of the country will never vote for a party he leads and that will be enough to keep the Tories in office, if not in power, whoever leads them.
More than 40% voted for him last year.
If the Tories get 40% or more of the vote they are highly likely to get most seats given the in-built advantage they now have.
Sure, but you said 40% would never vote for him. That's not true.
I do reckon that we have a long way to go to understanding what is going on in the Labour party. Whilst we are not from the far left, there are some good things going. It is churlish to deny that Corbyn managed to connect with many people in a way that no-one has in years. It's not just hype.
And 40% won't. My point is that a Tory 40% will produce more seats than a Labour 40%. And the Tories have 40% more or less banked for as long as Corbyn is Labour leader.
I know you dislike the direction Labour is going in, I'm not a massive fan myself, but you are letting it influence your analysis here. It really is fine margins in a hell of a lot of seats now. A small swing, or the Tories losing votes because they Brexit they've gone for isn't hard enough, would be all that is required to give Corbyn the maths to form a government.
Yep, I know. My "never" is poetic licence. Better stated, I think that if the Tories get 40% of the vote - and with Corbyn as Labour leader that looks bankable - it is highly unlikely that the Jezziah will ever make it into Number 10.
It was highly unlikely that we would Brexit, that Trump would win the Whitehouse, that Corbyn wins the Labour leadership, that the Tories would win and lose majority.
WRT the local elections, on current trends, they should be quite good for the Tories in May. The big headline losses will be in 2019, when the party is defending thousands of seats which it won in 2015.
London will surely be a bloodbath though and given the media's focus on the capital that will be the big story
No necessarily even there ad Labour already hold 20 London councils and the Tories just 9 and apart from Barnet where the Jewish vote hates Corbyn almost all the Labour target councils need at least around 10 Tory seats to fall to Labour for them to take control
WRT the local elections, on current trends, they should be quite good for the Tories in May. The big headline losses will be in 2019, when the party is defending thousands of seats which it won in 2015.
London will surely be a bloodbath though and given the media's focus on the capital that will be the big story
cf. the Richmond & Sleaford by-elections; obviously a gain is more exciting but the coverage of the latter was woeful.
Looking further forward, 2021 probably won't be great for the Tories given the triumphs of May 2017.
2020 May be better for the Tories given Labour won the 2016 Locals as they did in 2014
They are still second even on that poll and given the first placed Ciudadanos' position on Catalonia is also no independence referendum or independence it does not really change much on that front either unless they are really prepared to offer significantly more autonomy to the Catalans than the PP
Cs is led by a Catalan who speaks Catalan. The separatist claim is that Spain marginalises and disdains Catalonia. If the next Spanish PM comes from Barcelona and has a number of Catalan seats that narrative is impossible to sustain. The separatists are terrified of Cs. They need PP in power. But PP's vote is collapsing.
So what, Cameron was part Scottish. Cs is almost as anti Catalan separatism as the PP, policy wise it changes nothing regarding nationalist grievances. Cs are now the main unionist party in Catalonia's parliament but there is a pro separatist majority
Projecting the next election (assuming 2022) is unusually difficult.
There are deep and serious fractures in both the large parties.
Tory splits revolve around Brexit. If Brexit is in the past tense, they may be resolved and everyone lives happily ever after. Or they may leave such deep and raw wounds that the acrimony spreads covering every facet of policy and personality with argument and ill will. Not knowing if the party will be as one, who the leader will be and the fallout from Brexit gives us a difficult job in assessing Tory hopes in 2022. This is before we begin to contemplate the unknown state if the country they have run for a few years.
Labour also are a split party. They tend to be far more compliant than the Tories in swallowing bitter pills, dissent and disagreement silently for the good of the party, keeping dissent low key and locked away. However, they have a large chunk of MPs who are not enthusiastic paid up Corbyites. Then we have the Labour unknowns. Where will the power lie is 4 years time? The NEC, Momentum, Leaders Office, Unions? Will there be reselections (a far softer option than deselections, but the same thing)? What platform will they be offering in public (and in private)? If Labour have good Council results, who will be elected and will they enhance or trash the reputation? Will JC be leader?
The we have the LibDems under Vince. Enough said, he was a bad choice. If he is still there I suspect a doom laden result for them. However, they are intolerant of failed leaders (ask Ming, CK etc), so if they adopt a different leader will they peel votes away from either of the larger split parties?
So much is unknown right now, that 40% for any party looks optimistic.
Article 50 unilateral revocation case will be appealed to the Inner House of the Court of Session - interesting that MP Joanna Cherry QC is withdrawing as a petitioner
Projecting the next election (assuming 2022) is unusually difficult.
There are deep and serious fractures in both the large parties.
Tory splits revolve around Brexit. If Brexit is in the past tense, they may be resolved and everyone lives happily ever after. Or they may leave such deep and raw wounds that the acrimony spreads covering every facet of policy and personality with argument and ill will. Not knowing if the party will be as one, who the leader will be and the fallout from Brexit gives us a difficult job in assessing Tory hopes in 2022. This is before we begin to contemplate the unknown state if the country they have run for a few years.
Labour also are a split party. They tend to be far more compliant than the Tories in swallowing bitter pills, dissent and disagreement silently for the good of the party, keeping dissent low key and locked away. However, they have a large chunk of MPs who are not enthusiastic paid up Corbyites. Then we have the Labour unknowns. Where will the power lie is 4 years time? The NEC, Momentum, Leaders Office, Unions? Will there be reselections (a far softer option than deselections, but the same thing)? What platform will they be offering in public (and in private)? If Labour have good Council results, who will be elected and will they enhance or trash the reputation? Will JC be leader?
The we have the LibDems under Vince. Enough said, he was a bad choice. If he is still there I suspect a doom laden result for them. However, they are intolerant of failed leaders (ask Ming, CK etc), so if they adopt a different leader will they peel votes away from either of the larger split parties?
So much is unknown right now, that 40% for any party looks optimistic.
I would say Labour has a Corbyn problem. That's easy to solve. You get rid of him and while that might annoy factions, what's left looks reasonably functional. The Conservatives have a fundamental dispute about what they are there for. Remove Theresa May who is trying to keep the shit together and the whole thing falls apart. The reasons for NOT removing May are still there.
Just in time for an explosion in weekend papers with threats to bring down May etc etc
That will come to nothing. Again.
It is almost as if the press make things up to try to sell copies/get web traffic
Sadly all about the clicks and subscriptions these days, look at the Telegraph for the most obvious example - even the critiscm of their article yesterday was somewhat overblown.
Fewer and fewer proper journalists left now, so kudos to the Times for their front page on Oxfam today.
Projecting the next election (assuming 2022) is unusually difficult.
There are deep and serious fractures in both the large parties.
Tory splits revolve around Brexit. If Brexit is in the past tense, they may be resolved and everyone lives happily ever after. Or they may leave such deep and raw wounds that the acrimony spreads covering every facet of policy and personality with argument and ill will. Not knowing if the party will be as one, who the leader will be and the fallout from Brexit gives us a difficult job in assessing Tory hopes in 2022. This is before we begin to contemplate the unknown state if the country they have run for a few years.
Labour also are a split party. They tend to be far more compliant than the Tories in swallowing bitter pills, dissent and disagreement silently for the good of the party, keeping dissent low key and locked away. However, they have a large chunk of MPs who are not enthusiastic paid up Corbyites. Then we have the Labour unknowns. Where will the power lie is 4 years time? The NEC, Momentum, Leaders Office, Unions? Will there be reselections (a far softer option than deselections, but the same thing)? What platform will they be offering in public (and in private)? If Labour have good Council results, who will be elected and will they enhance or trash the reputation? Will JC be leader?
The we have the LibDems under Vince. Enough said, he was a bad choice. If he is still there I suspect a doom laden result for them. However, they are intolerant of failed leaders (ask Ming, CK etc), so if they adopt a different leader will they peel votes away from either of the larger split parties?
So much is unknown right now, that 40% for any party looks optimistic.
I would say Labour has a Corbyn problem. That's easy to solve. You get rid of him and while that might annoy factions, what's left looks reasonably functional. The Conservatives have a fundamental dispute about what they are there for. Remove Theresa May who is trying to keep the shit together and the whole thing falls apart. The reasons for NOT removing May are still there.
How are they going to get rid of him? He is worshipped by the cult. Maybe he goes of his own volition, citing age or whatever.
Projecting the next election (assuming 2022) is unusually difficult.
There are deep and serious fractures in both the large parties.
Tory splits revolve around Brexit. If Brexit is in the past tense, they may be resolved and everyone lives happily ever after. Or they may leave such deep and raw wounds that the acrimony spreads covering every facet of policy and personality with argument and ill will. Not knowing if the party will be as one, who the leader will be and the fallout from Brexit gives us a difficult job in assessing Tory hopes in 2022. This is before we begin to contemplate the unknown state if the country they have run for a few years.
Labour also are a split party. They tend to be far more compliant than the Tories in swallowing bitter pills, dissent and disagreement silently for the good of the party, keeping dissent low key and locked away. However, they have a large chunk of MPs who are not enthusiastic paid up Corbyites. Then we have the Labour unknowns. Where will the power lie is 4 years time? The NEC, Momentum, Leaders Office, Unions? Will there be reselections (a far softer option than deselections, but the same thing)? What platform will they be offering in public (and in private)? If Labour have good Council results, who will be elected and will they enhance or trash the reputation? Will JC be leader?
The we have the LibDems under Vince. Enough said, he was a bad choice. If he is still there I suspect a doom laden result for them. However, they are intolerant of failed leaders (ask Ming, CK etc), so if they adopt a different leader will they peel votes away from either of the larger split parties?
So much is unknown right now, that 40% for any party looks optimistic.
There's also the question of the SNP. If the SNP lose seats at Holyrood in 2021, could Sturgeon be replaced. If so, by who?
Projecting the next election (assuming 2022) is unusually difficult.
There are deep and serious fractures in both the large parties.
Tory splits revolve around Brexit. If Brexit is in the past tense, they may be resolved and everyone lives happily ever after. Or they may leave such deep and raw wounds that the acrimony spreads covering every facet of policy and personality with argument and ill will. Not knowing if the party will be as one, who the leader will be and the fallout from Brexit gives us a difficult job in assessing Tory hopes in 2022. This is before we begin to contemplate the unknown state if the country they have run for a few years.
Labour also are a split party. They tend to be far more compliant than the Tories in swallowing bitter pills, dissent and disagreement silently for the good of the party, keeping dissent low key and locked away. However, they have a large chunk of MPs who are not enthusiastic paid up Corbyites. Then we have the Labour unknowns. Where will the power lie is 4 years time? The NEC, Momentum, Leaders Office, Unions? Will there be reselections (a far softer option than deselections, but the same thing)? What platform will they be offering in public (and in private)? If Labour have good Council results, who will be elected and will they enhance or trash the reputation? Will JC be leader?
The we have the LibDems under Vince. Enough said, he was a bad choice. If he is still there I suspect a doom laden result for them. However, they are intolerant of failed leaders (ask Ming, CK etc), so if they adopt a different leader will they peel votes away from either of the larger split parties?
So much is unknown right now, that 40% for any party looks optimistic.
I would say Labour has a Corbyn problem. That's easy to solve. You get rid of him and while that might annoy factions, what's left looks reasonably functional. The Conservatives have a fundamental dispute about what they are there for. Remove Theresa May who is trying to keep the shit together and the whole thing falls apart. The reasons for NOT removing May are still there.
How are they going to get rid of him? He is worshipped by the cult. Maybe he goes of his own volition, citing age or whatever.
The mechanics of getting rid of Corbyn are tricky but as he is the problem, removing him makes the problem go away. Removing Theresa May aggravates the Tory problem further because it is existential and she is keeping it at bay by not dealing with it.
They are still second even on that poll and given the first placed Ciudadanos' position on Catalonia is also no independence referendum or independence it does not really change much on that front either unless they are really prepared to offer significantly more autonomy to the Catalans than the PP
Cs is led by a Catalan who speaks Catalan. The separatist claim is that Spain marginalises and disdains Catalonia. If the next Spanish PM comes from Barcelona and has a number of Catalan seats that narrative is impossible to sustain. The separatists are terrified of Cs. They need PP in power. But PP's vote is collapsing.
You do realise that, in Canada, it is the province that has contributed the most Prime Ministers of Canada that is the one that wants to secede.
10 Prime Ministers of Canada (including of course the present one) came from Quebec,
It is Narnia-Thinking to suggest that the separatist claim will go away just because there is a Spanish PM from Barcelona.
Projecting the next election (assuming 2022) is unusually difficult.
Labour also are a split party. They tend to be far more compliant than the Tories in swallowing bitter pills, dissent and disagreement silently for the good of the party, keeping dissent low key and locked away. However, they have a large chunk of MPs who are not enthusiastic paid up Corbyites. Then we have the Labour unknowns. Where will the power lie is 4 years time? The NEC, Momentum, Leaders Office, Unions? Will there be reselections (a far softer option than deselections, but the same thing)? What platform will they be offering in public (and in private)? If Labour have good Council results, who will be elected and will they enhance or trash the reputation? Will JC be leader?
The we have the LibDems under Vince. Enough said, he was a bad choice. If he is still there I suspect a doom laden result for them. However, they are intolerant of failed leaders (ask Ming, CK etc), so if they adopt a different leader will they peel votes away from either of the larger split parties?
So much is unknown right now, that 40% for any party looks optimistic.
I would say Labour has a Corbyn problem. That's easy to solve. You get rid of him and while that might annoy factions, what's left looks reasonably functional. The Conservatives have a fundamental dispute about what they are there for. Remove Theresa May who is trying to keep the shit together and the whole thing falls apart. The reasons for NOT removing May are still there.
How are they going to get rid of him? He is worshipped by the cult. Maybe he goes of his own volition, citing age or whatever.
The mechanics of getting rid of Corbyn are tricky but as he is the problem, removing him makes the problem go away. Removing Theresa May aggravates the Tory problem further because it is existential and she is keeping it at bay by not dealing with it.
It is not just Corbyn - it is everything that comes along with him. McDonnell, the rise of the influence of Momentum. Abbott. All the fellow travellers.
Getting rid of Jezza does not automatically mean getting rid of the rest. Indeed, it is possible that McDonnell could replace - and he is an even scarier prospect.
Doesn't sound rattled to me. Barnier expects the UK to accept the EU terms. The one comment I would make is that Barnier unlike most of the EU people isn't tactful. He doesn't bother to hide his contempt for Davis. Generally the EU are pretty tactful, eg on the pretence that the UK negotiated the exit fee down, but it is a tact that comes from knowing you will get your way.
They are still second even on that poll and given the first placed Ciudadanos' position on Catalonia is also no independence referendum or independence it does not really change much on that front either unless they are really prepared to offer significantly more autonomy to the Catalans than the PP
Cs is led by a Catalan who speaks Catalan. The separatist claim is that Spain marginalises and disdains Catalonia. If the next Spanish PM comes from Barcelona and has a number of Catalan seats that narrative is impossible to sustain. The separatists are terrified of Cs. They need PP in power. But PP's vote is collapsing.
You do realise that, in Canada, it is the province that has contributed the most Prime Ministers of Canada that is the one that wants to secede.
10 Prime Ministers of Canada (including of course the present one) came from Quebec,
It is Narnia-Thinking to suggest that the separatist claim will go away just because there is a Spanish PM from Barcelona.
Between 1997 and 2010 the UK PM were Scots*. Within a year the threshold for a Scottish independence referendum was achieved.
*Blair was Scottish because he was born in Edinburgh
Congrats to Richard Tyndall on the upcoming book launch. who was that Sean fellow again?
Lots of recognition just how up in the air things are. Will both main parties really be so awful next time? If one is able to look a lot more mainstream than the other they could win a landslide, but if they are still in the current modes of hard-left vs. crush the saboteurs it'll probably be tight again.
One assumption needs challenging though - that Brexit will be done and dusted by 2020. Who are you kidding? It'll dominate the next decade, the polarising approach by the Government has guaranteed that? We'll spend the first half of the next decade trying to negotiate trade deals and get some agreement on an end state, then the second half trying to implement it. I can see Brexit dominating not just the next GE but the one after that.
Doesn't sound rattled to me. Barnier expects the UK to accept the EU terms. The one comment I would make is that Barnier unlike most of the EU people isn't tactful. He doesn't bother to hide his contempt for Davis. Generally the EU are pretty tactful, eg on the pretence that the UK negotiated the exit fee down, but it is a tact that comes from knowing you will get your way.
If they get 100% of their way (as is often suggested), it could risk making it an unnecessarily unattractive deal to a lot of UK
They are still second even on that poll and given the first placed Ciudadanos' position on Catalonia is also no independence referendum or independence it does not really change much on that front either unless they are really prepared to offer significantly more autonomy to the Catalans than the PP
Cs is led by a Catalan who speaks Catalan. The separatist claim is that Spain marginalises and disdains Catalonia. If the next Spanish PM comes from Barcelona and has a number of Catalan seats that narrative is impossible to sustain. The separatists are terrified of Cs. They need PP in power. But PP's vote is collapsing.
So what, Cameron was part Scottish. Cs is almost as anti Catalan separatism as the PP, policy wise it changes nothing regarding nationalist grievances. Cs are now the main unionist party in Catalonia's parliament but there is a pro separatist majority
Catalan nationalism is very different to Catalan separatism. The first is cultural, the second is political. A Catalan speaking, Catalan PM in Madrid - Spain’s first - unties the bond between the two that PP created.
If you don’t understand that, so be it; but if you want to look at a UK example: Gordon Brown was a staunch unionist, but it did not help the SNP to have him in Number 10. Having him replaced by David Cameron, an English Tory toff, was a God send. The SNP need the Tories in Number 10; Catalan separatists need PP in the Moncloa.
Other interesting economic data today are that manufacturing output has increased for the eigth consecutive month. This equals the previous record in 1987 and longer than anything else dating back to 1968 (and probably a lot earlier).
As expected overall production output fell because of the North Sea problems - have they been resolved yet ?
And house construction in 2017 was at the highest for over 20 years (it was double that in 1997). PB anecdotes proved right on that one.
Of course people will continue to read into economic stats what they want to.
The North Sea will, sadly, gently tail off (unless there are some massive new discoveries). The fields there are (almost all) mature and in decline. If the tax regime were to change, you might see a bit more investment there, but the basin is very mature now, and new discoveries in the last few years have been of diminishing size, so it's hard to see a serious turnaround.
I agree to some extent. It will however be a very long tail. North Sea oil has some qualities that make it highly valued compared to Middle Eastern or US oil. This means that there is huge scope for redevelopment of fields. Whilst the majors are simply not equipped to do these sorts of redevelopments, smaller companies are very much able to take advantage and there is a lot of new work starting to be done. After the longest slump in North Sea history, suddenly everyone wants to drill again and it is not just the redevelopment but also significant new fields that are being discovered particularly West of Shetlands.
As well as the BP example mentioned below, Hurricane Oil have two discoveries last year which add up to around 1.5 Billion barrels of oil.
1.5 billion barrels of oil - assuming they are all recoverable barrels - would last the planet less than three weeks.
Depends what you use it for. I have said for years that North Sea Oil is too good to burn. As we move towards renewables more and more people will realise how lucky we were that we didn't waste our oil resources just making energy.
But on your point about the size. 1.5 billion barrels still makes it the 4th or 5th largest field ever found on the UK Continental shelf.
The EU don't appear to believe an Englishman's word is his bond i guess.
When David Davis says, immediately after agreeing a bunch of stuff in December, that it wasn't legally binding, you would expect the other side to "lack good faith" and be "discourteous".
Davis was absolutely right then and now. Until such times as there gas been an agreement on the whole A50 process nothing is legally binding and nor should it be. Barrier wants to bank concessions whilst refusing to deal with the main issues. It needs to be made clear yet again that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
The silly season seems to have started remarkably early this year.
A good test to apply to any story, particular Brexit-related stories, is: does this make the slightest sense?
You only have to ask the question: 'Would it make the slightest sense for France, Spain, Greece, Italy, Portugal, or Cyprus to make it hard to British tourists to hire a car?' to see the answer.
Okay I'll give it a try.
"Would a major trading nation willingly give up preferential to the largest and richest free trade area in the word?"
The answer is obviously no. So I guess we are not actually leaving the EU?
They are still second even on that poll and given the first placed Ciudadanos' position on Catalonia is also no independence referendum or independence it does not really change much on that front either unless they are really prepared to offer significantly more autonomy to the Catalans than the PP
Cs is led by a Catalan who speaks Catalan. The separatist claim is that Spain marginalises and disdains Catalonia. If the next Spanish PM comes from Barcelona and has a number of Catalan seats that narrative is impossible to sustain. The separatists are terrified of Cs. They need PP in power. But PP's vote is collapsing.
You do realise that, in Canada, it is the province that has contributed the most Prime Ministers of Canada that is the one that wants to secede.
10 Prime Ministers of Canada (including of course the present one) came from Quebec,
It is Narnia-Thinking to suggest that the separatist claim will go away just because there is a Spanish PM from Barcelona.
Of course separatism won’t go away. But it will lose its most compelling narrative: that Catalonia is disdained and marginalised by “Spain”. Rivera as PM will decouple Catalan nationalism from Catalan separatism. The two operated independently of each other for decades until Rajoy’s stupidity and ignorance brought them together.
I see we can now add the Jews to the list of those to blame for Brexit not being the cake walk the loons assured us it would be.
I can see you are getting more and more desperate to smear Leave supporters because you have nothing else left to argue with. I would have expected better of you.
Nope - I do not consider all Brexit supporters loons, just the ones who promised a cake walk on the basis that they need us more than we need them. If you are comfortable with the right wing press's anti-Semitic attacks on George Soros so be it. But I would have expected better of you.
They are not anti semetic. That is your own lunatic smear.
So yes I am entirely comfortable with the attacks on Soros.
The silly season seems to have started remarkably early this year.
A good test to apply to any story, particular Brexit-related stories, is: does this make the slightest sense?
You only have to ask the question: 'Would it make the slightest sense for France, Spain, Greece, Italy, Portugal, or Cyprus to make it hard to British tourists to hire a car?' to see the answer.
There'll be no need to hire a car. We'll all have driven to the Algarve because the airports will be shut.
Driven to Skegness, because of the massive customs queue at the Tunnel entrance.
No, we'll be roasting a turnip over a candle, as sterling will be worthless. Still, mustn't grumble.
We will be exporting our turnips to Europe via our customs union. Tories have played a blinder , we have choice of sell our soul and have EU running the country or No deal and fall flat on our faces. Roll on second independence referendum.
WRT the local elections, on current trends, they should be quite good for the Tories in May. The big headline losses will be in 2019, when the party is defending thousands of seats which it won in 2015.
London will surely be a bloodbath though and given the media's focus on the capital that will be the big story
I doubt if there will be big headline gains for London Labour, because they're already starting from a very strong position.
Doesn't sound rattled to me. Barnier expects the UK to accept the EU terms. The one comment I would make is that Barnier unlike most of the EU people isn't tactful. He doesn't bother to hide his contempt for Davis. Generally the EU are pretty tactful, eg on the pretence that the UK negotiated the exit fee down, but it is a tact that comes from knowing you will get your way.
If they get 100% of their way (as is often suggested), it could risk making it an unnecessarily unattractive deal to a lot of UK
What the EU thinks it to be and what it actually is may be different. I suspect the UK will think an arrangement that doesn't throw us into immediate chaos is a lot more attractive than the alternative. Also that when it comes to it, the UK electorate doesn't give a stuff about EU citizen rights and the UK right of objection, which are the sticking points. I and the EU may be wrong about that, of course.
The silly season seems to have started remarkably early this year.
A good test to apply to any story, particular Brexit-related stories, is: does this make the slightest sense?
You only have to ask the question: 'Would it make the slightest sense for France, Spain, Greece, Italy, Portugal, or Cyprus to make it hard to British tourists to hire a car?' to see the answer.
Okay I'll give it a try.
"Would a major trading nation willingly give up preferential to the largest and richest free trade area in the word?"
Why would Germany introduce friction and tariffs to trade between itself and a country that it has a £50Bn a year trade surplus with ?
We’re going to crash out in March 2019 with no deal onto WTO terms because we’ve run out of time.
It’ll be fun.
I can't see it, even in nightmares. But if we do - what's the mechanism? When does it all collapse under the contradictions? Is it soon (when we can't agree transition terms, could be as early as March) after the Government collapses by not being able to agree any proper ask for the end-state (summer) or Autumn where JRM and Corbyn combine to vote a lousy deal down in parliament?
When is the critical moment - looks like it's just drifting to me and that we are being played by the EU who are getting bored of us.
Other interesting economic data today are that manufacturing output has increased for the eigth consecutive month. This equals the previous record in 1987 and longer than anything else dating back to 1968 (and probably a lot earlier).
As expected overall production output fell because of the North Sea problems - have they been resolved yet ?
And house construction in 2017 was at the highest for over 20 years (it was double that in 1997). PB anecdotes proved right on that one.
Of course people will continue to read into economic stats what they want to.
The North Sea will, sadly, gently tail off (unless there are some massive new discoveries). The fields there are (almost all) mature and in decline. If the tax regime were to change, you might see a bit more investment there, but the basin is very mature now, and new discoveries in the last few years have been of diminishing size, so it's hard to see a serious turnaround.
I agree to some extent. It will however be a very long tail. North Sea oil has some qualities that make it highly valued compared to Middle Eastern or US oil. This means that there is huge scope for redevelopment of fields. Whilst the majors are simply not equipped to do these sorts of redevelopments, smaller companies are very much able to take advantage and there is a lot of new work starting to be done. After the longest slump in North Sea history, suddenly everyone wants to drill again and it is not just the redevelopment but also significant new fields that are being discovered particularly West of Shetlands.
As well as the BP example mentioned below, Hurricane Oil have two discoveries last year which add up to around 1.5 Billion barrels of oil.
1.5 billion barrels of oil - assuming they are all recoverable barrels - would last the planet less than three weeks.
Depends what you use it for. I have said for years that North Sea Oil is too good to burn. As we move towards renewables more and more people will realise how lucky we were that we didn't waste our oil resources just making energy.
But on your point about the size. 1.5 billion barrels still makes it the 4th or 5th largest field ever found on the UK Continental shelf.
Also worth a lot of money
Indeed. Combined with the Claire field which us the largest find ever on the European Continental shelf it has the potential for a great deal of revenue.
They are still second even on that poll and given the first placed Ciudadanos' position on Catalonia is also no independence referendum or independence it does not really change much on that front either unless they are really prepared to offer significantly more autonomy to the Catalans than the PP
Cs is led by a Catalan who speaks Catalan. The separatist claim is that Spain marginalises and disdains Catalonia. If the next Spanish PM comes from Barcelona and has a number of Catalan seats that narrative is impossible to sustain. The separatists are terrified of Cs. They need PP in power. But PP's vote is collapsing.
You do realise that, in Canada, it is the province that has contributed the most Prime Ministers of Canada that is the one that wants to secede.
10 Prime Ministers of Canada (including of course the present one) came from Quebec,
It is Narnia-Thinking to suggest that the separatist claim will go away just because there is a Spanish PM from Barcelona.
Of course separatism won’t go away. But it will lose its most compelling narrative: that Catalonia is disdained and marginalised by “Spain”. Rivera as PM will decouple Catalan nationalism from Catalan separatism. The two operated independently of each other for decades until Rajoy’s stupidity and ignorance brought them together.
The Quebec referendums occurred when the Prime Ministers of Canada were from ... Quebec (Trudeau and Chretien).
All that happened is that they were traduced as collaborationists and so widely distrusted in Quebec.
I see we can now add the Jews to the list of those to blame for Brexit not being the cake walk the loons assured us it would be.
I can see you are getting more and more desperate to smear Leave supporters because you have nothing else left to argue with. I would have expected better of you.
Nope - I do not consider all Brexit supporters loons, just the ones who promised a cake walk on the basis that they need us more than we need them. If you are comfortable with the right wing press's anti-Semitic attacks on George Soros so be it. But I would have expected better of you.
They are not anti semetic. That is your own lunatic smear.
So yes I am entirely comfortable with the attacks on Soros.
That genuinely surprises me, Richard. The borderless, wealthy, puppet master is an anti-Semitic trope going back to the 19th century. It’s been used against Soros by both the Telegraph and the Sun - just as it is used against him by far-right populists in Eastern Europe. I would have thought someone with your knowledge and intolerance of racism would have known that.
I'm less worried about Barnier vs Davis. The noisy paralysis in the Conservative party is far more concerning.
I agree. There is more to life than Brexit, but HMG doesn't seem able to achieve anything other than tinkering (cracking down on puppy farmers, support part-time military service, all very laudable, but...).
While I agree with Barnier on the transistion he is doing himself no favours by being so arrogant and the elephant in the room will be how the public view this arrogance.
If talks become deadlocked does anyone really believe the EU states will sit back and say it is upto Barnier while chaos is threatened across Europe.
And as for grounding our flights are they for real. Can anyone imagine how the rest of the world would perceive the EU and when we close our airspace to them how are transatlantic flights going to get into Europe.
The whole idea is so petty and pathetic indeed say a lot about why we need out
We’re going to crash out in March 2019 with no deal onto WTO terms because we’ve run out of time.
It’ll be fun.
I can't see it, even in nightmares. But if we do - what's the mechanism? When does it all collapse under the contradictions? Is it soon (when we can't agree transition terms, could be as early as March) after the Government collapses by not being able to agree any proper ask for the end-state (summer) or Autumn where JRM and Corbyn combine to vote a lousy deal down in parliament?
When is the critical moment - looks like it's just drifting to me and that we are being played by the EU who are getting bored of us.
By September we’ll know, WTO means the likes of Nissan pulling out, the economy tanking.
Then we’ll see Mrs May offering a referendum. Remain or Leave with no deal on WTO terms.
While I agree with Barnier on the transistion he is doing himself no favours by being so arrogant and the elephant in the room will be how the public view this arrogance.
You've been saying this for months, but public opinion isn't swinging behind Brexit at all.
They are still second even on that poll and given the first placed Ciudadanos' position on Catalonia is also no independence referendum or independence it does not really change much on that front either unless they are really prepared to offer significantly more autonomy to the Catalans than the PP
Cs is led by a Catalan who speaks Catalan. The separatist claim is that Spain marginalises and disdains Catalonia. If the next Spanish PM comes from Barcelona and has a number of Catalan seats that narrative is impossible to sustain. The separatists are terrified of Cs. They need PP in power. But PP's vote is collapsing.
So what, Cameron was part Scottish. Cs is almost as anti Catalan separatism as the PP, policy wise it changes nothing regarding nationalist grievances. Cs are now the main unionist party in Catalonia's parliament but there is a pro separatist majority
We’re going to crash out in March 2019 with no deal onto WTO terms because we’ve run out of time.
It’ll be fun.
I can't see it, even in nightmares. But if we do - what's the mechanism? When does it all collapse under the contradictions? Is it soon (when we can't agree transition terms, could be as early as March) after the Government collapses by not being able to agree any proper ask for the end-state (summer) or Autumn where JRM and Corbyn combine to vote a lousy deal down in parliament?
When is the critical moment - looks like it's just drifting to me and that we are being played by the EU who are getting bored of us.
WTO means the likes of Nissan pulling out .
Does it ?
The government would be advised to make a sharp adjustment to business and employment tax rates to compensate.
Would things have been any different negotiation wise had May won her desired majority? After all that appeared to be the stated aim of the election - to strengthen her hand
The EU don't appear to believe an Englishman's word is his bond i guess.
When David Davis says, immediately after agreeing a bunch of stuff in December, that it wasn't legally binding, you would expect the other side to "lack good faith" and be "discourteous".
Davis was absolutely right then and now. Until such times as there gas been an agreement on the whole A50 process nothing is legally binding and nor should it be. Barrier wants to bank concessions whilst refusing to deal with the main issues. It needs to be made clear yet again that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
Technically Davis was to correct to say the interim agreement was not legally binding. The context to his remarks however were to imply that he was prepared to backtrack on commitments he had made in the agreement. That's an example of the bad faith he accuses the EU side of. Actually sanctions on breach of a treaty are perfectly normal and not in "bad faith" unless they are unreasonable ones, eg sanctions on unavoidable outcomes.
While I agree with Barnier on the transistion he is doing himself no favours by being so arrogant and the elephant in the room will be how the public view this arrogance.
You've been saying this for months, but public opinion isn't swinging behind Brexit at all.
The silly season seems to have started remarkably early this year.
A good test to apply to any story, particular Brexit-related stories, is: does this make the slightest sense?
You only have to ask the question: 'Would it make the slightest sense for France, Spain, Greece, Italy, Portugal, or Cyprus to make it hard to British tourists to hire a car?' to see the answer.
Okay I'll give it a try.
"Would a major trading nation willingly give up preferential to the largest and richest free trade area in the word?"
Why would Germany introduce friction and tariffs to trade between itself and a country that it has a £50Bn a year trade surplus with ?
See also France.
You don't quite get it do you Harry, when you leave you are out , they will extract their pound of flesh. We have little to offer them and need their goods and don't they know it. You think we will be clamouring for Chinese cars.
They are still second even on that poll and given the first placed Ciudadanos' position on Catalonia is also no independence referendum or independence it does not really change much on that front either unless they are really prepared to offer significantly more autonomy to the Catalans than the PP
Cs is led by a Catalan who speaks Catalan. The separatist claim is that Spain marginalises and disdains Catalonia. If the next Spanish PM comes from Barcelona and has a number of Catalan seats that narrative is impossible to sustain. The separatists are terrified of Cs. They need PP in power. But PP's vote is collapsing.
You do realise that, in Canada, it is the province that has contributed the most Prime Ministers of Canada that is the one that wants to secede.
10 Prime Ministers of Canada (including of course the present one) came from Quebec,
It is Narnia-Thinking to suggest that the separatist claim will go away just because there is a Spanish PM from Barcelona.
Of course separatism won’t go away. But it will lose its most compelling narrative: that Catalonia is disdained and marginalised by “Spain”. Rivera as PM will decouple Catalan nationalism from Catalan separatism. The two operated independently of each other for decades until Rajoy’s stupidity and ignorance brought them together.
The Quebec referendums occurred when the Prime Ministers of Canada were from ... Quebec (Trudeau and Chretien).
All that happened is that they were traduced as collaborationists and so widely distrusted in Quebec.
And both were lost, weren’t they? Spain has never had a Catalan speaking leader or one from Catalonia.
Would things have been any different negotiation wise had May won her desired majority? After all that appeared to be the stated aim of the election - to strengthen her hand
Yes. She would have been able to deal with the Northern Ireland situation without having to worry about losing power.
I see we can now add the Jews to the list of those to blame for Brexit not being the cake walk the loons assured us it would be.
I can see you are getting more and more desperate to smear Leave supporters because you have nothing else left to argue with. I would have expected better of you.
Nope - I do not consider all Brexit supporters loons, just the ones who promised a cake walk on the basis that they need us more than we need them. If you are comfortable with the right wing press's anti-Semitic attacks on George Soros so be it. But I would have expected better of you.
They are not anti semetic. That is your own lunatic smear.
So yes I am entirely comfortable with the attacks on Soros.
Criticising Soros for being a Jew is appalling. Criticising him for his politics is perfectly legitimate.
They are still second even on that poll and given the first placed Ciudadanos' position on Catalonia is also no independence referendum or independence it does not really change much on that front either unless they are really prepared to offer significantly more autonomy to the Catalans than the PP
Cs is led by a Catalan who speaks Catalan. The separatist claim is that Spain marginalises and disdains Catalonia. If the next Spanish PM comes from Barcelona and has a number of Catalan seats that narrative is impossible to sustain. The separatists are terrified of Cs. They need PP in power. But PP's vote is collapsing.
You do realise that, in Canada, it is the province that has contributed the most Prime Ministers of Canada that is the one that wants to secede.
10 Prime Ministers of Canada (including of course the present one) came from Quebec,
It is Narnia-Thinking to suggest that the separatist claim will go away just because there is a Spanish PM from Barcelona.
Of course separatism won’t go away. But it will lose its most compelling narrative: that Catalonia is disdained and marginalised by “Spain”. Rivera as PM will decouple Catalan nationalism from Catalan separatism. The two operated independently of each other for decades until Rajoy’s stupidity and ignorance brought them together.
Unless a future PM Rivera devolves significantly more powers to the Catalan Parliament, Catalan separatism will not be going anywhere
Projecting the next election (assuming 2022) is unusually difficult.
There are deep and serious fractures in both the large parties.
Tory splits revolve around Brexit. If Brexit is in the past tense, they may be resolved and everyone lives happily ever after. Or they may leave such deep and raw wounds that the acrimony spreads covering every facet of policy and personality with argument and ill will. Not knowing if the party will be as one, who the leader will be and the fallout from Brexit gives us a difficult job in assessing Tory hopes in 2022. This is before we begin to contemplate the unknown state if the country they have run for a few years.
Labour also are a split party. They tend to be far more compliant than the Tories in swallowing bitter pills, dissent and disagreement silently for the good of the party, keeping dissent low key and locked away. However, they have a large chunk of MPs who are not enthusiastic paid up Corbyites. Then we have the Labour unknowns. Where will the power lie is 4 years time? The NEC, Momentum, Leaders Office, Unions? Will there be reselections (a far softer option than deselections, but the same thing)? What platform will they be offering in public (and in private)? If Labour have good Council results, who will be elected and will they enhance or trash the reputation? Will JC be leader?
The we have the LibDems under Vince. Enough said, he was a bad choice. If he is still there I suspect a doom laden result for them. However, they are intolerant of failed leaders (ask Ming, CK etc), so if they adopt a different leader will they peel votes away from either of the larger split parties?
So much is unknown right now, that 40% for any party looks optimistic.
There's also the question of the SNP. If the SNP lose seats at Holyrood in 2021, could Sturgeon be replaced. If so, by who?
More likely my grandmother will grow testicles than that scenario.
They are still second even on that poll and given the first placed Ciudadanos' position on Catalonia is also no independence referendum or independence it does not really change much on that front either unless they are really prepared to offer significantly more autonomy to the Catalans than the PP
Cs is led by a Catalan who speaks Catalan. The separatist claim is that Spain marginalises and disdains Catalonia. If the next Spanish PM comes from Barcelona and has a number of Catalan seats that narrative is impossible to sustain. The separatists are terrified of Cs. They need PP in power. But PP's vote is collapsing.
You do realise that, in Canada, it is the province that has contributed the most Prime Ministers of Canada that is the one that wants to secede.
10 Prime Ministers of Canada (including of course the present one) came from Quebec,
It is Narnia-Thinking to suggest that the separatist claim will go away just because there is a Spanish PM from Barcelona.
Of course separatism won’t go away. But it will lose its most compelling narrative: that Catalonia is disdained and marginalised by “Spain”. Rivera as PM will decouple Catalan nationalism from Catalan separatism. The two operated independently of each other for decades until Rajoy’s stupidity and ignorance brought them together.
Unless Rivera devolves significantly more powers to the Catalan Parliament, Catalan separatism will not be going anywhere
Of course it won’t. It will just be less of a political force.
While I agree with Barnier on the transistion he is doing himself no favours by being so arrogant and the elephant in the room will be how the public view this arrogance.
You've been saying this for months, but public opinion isn't swinging behind Brexit at all.
It is not swinging behind your vision either
Isn't that the most depressing thing about the whole saga? It's just reduced to 2 sides shouting at each other. I don't often see QuestionTime but did last night and regretted it. The other side couldn't even finish a sentence before being screamed at (and what a terrible advocate for Remain Terry Christian was.)
The entrenchment is so set that almost no-one is changing their mind now; any decent Government would be prioritising healing the awful divides but this one doesn't seem to care. It's why Brexit is still no sure thing - there's none of that sense of the nation coming together about this that TMay claimed in her election pitch, and no mandate or majority for any form of Brexit (other than giving the NHS lots of money which Brexit will make harder not easier.)
I see we can now add the Jews to the list of those to blame for Brexit not being the cake walk the loons assured us it would be.
I can see you are getting more and more desperate to smear Leave supporters because you have nothing else left to argue with. I would have expected better of you.
Nope - I do not consider all Brexit supporters loons, just the ones who promised a cake walk on the basis that they need us more than we need them. If you are comfortable with the right wing press's anti-Semitic attacks on George Soros so be it. But I would have expected better of you.
They are not anti semetic. That is your own lunatic smear.
So yes I am entirely comfortable with the attacks on Soros.
Criticising Soros for being a Jew is appalling. Criticising him for his politics is perfectly legitimate.
But the point is, there doesn't seem to be a mechanism for criticising him. It meets an automatic response of "you're being anti-semitic".....
I see we can now add the Jews to the list of those to blame for Brexit not being the cake walk the loons assured us it would be.
I can see you are getting more and more desperate to smear Leave supporters because you have nothing else left to argue with. I would have expected better of you.
Nope - I do not consider all Brexit supporters loons, just the ones who promised a cake walk on the basis that they need us more than we need them. If you are comfortable with the right wing press's anti-Semitic attacks on George Soros so be it. But I would have expected better of you.
They are not anti semetic. That is your own lunatic smear.
So yes I am entirely comfortable with the attacks on Soros.
Criticising Soros for being a Jew is appalling. Criticising him for his politics is perfectly legitimate.
Of course. And to reference him as a puppet master is to repeat a trope employed by anti-Semites since the 19th century.
The EU don't appear to believe an Englishman's word is his bond i guess.
When David Davis says, immediately after agreeing a bunch of stuff in December, that it wasn't legally binding, you would expect the other side to "lack good faith" and be "discourteous".
Davis was absolutely right then and now. Until such times as there gas been an agreement on the whole A50 process nothing is legally binding and nor should it be. Barrier wants to bank concessions whilst refusing to deal with the main issues. It needs to be made clear yet again that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
Technically Davis was to correct to say the interim agreement was not legally binding. The context to his remarks however were to imply that he was prepared to backtrack on commitments he had made in the agreement. That's an example of the bad faith he accuses the EU side of. Actually sanctions on breach of a treaty are perfectly normal and not in "bad faith" unless they are unreasonable ones, eg sanctions on unavoidable outcomes.
It's just the process of negotiating. It seems to be a foreign language, unspoken by most on here.
As for the sacred nature of the Treaty? You're having a laugh. Ask the French about sanctions when you break a Treaty.....they'll just smirk.
I see we can now add the Jews to the list of those to blame for Brexit not being the cake walk the loons assured us it would be.
I can see you are getting more and more desperate to smear Leave supporters because you have nothing else left to argue with. I would have expected better of you.
Nope - I do not consider all Brexit supporters loons, just the ones who promised a cake walk on the basis that they need us more than we need them. If you are comfortable with the right wing press's anti-Semitic attacks on George Soros so be it. But I would have expected better of you.
They are not anti semetic. That is your own lunatic smear.
So yes I am entirely comfortable with the attacks on Soros.
Criticising Soros for being a Jew is appalling. Criticising him for his politics is perfectly legitimate.
You said he was evil yesterday. What about his politics merits that?
The EU don't appear to believe an Englishman's word is his bond i guess.
When David Davis says, immediately after agreeing a bunch of stuff in December, that it wasn't legally binding, you would expect the other side to "lack good faith" and be "discourteous".
Davis was absolutely right then and now. Until such times as there gas been an agreement on the whole A50 process nothing is legally binding and nor should it be. Barrier wants to bank concessions whilst refusing to deal with the main issues. It needs to be made clear yet again that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
Technically Davis was to correct to say the interim agreement was not legally binding. The context to his remarks however were to imply that he was prepared to backtrack on commitments he had made in the agreement. That's an example of the bad faith he accuses the EU side of. Actually sanctions on breach of a treaty are perfectly normal and not in "bad faith" unless they are unreasonable ones, eg sanctions on unavoidable outcomes.
It's just the process of negotiating. It seems to be a foreign language, unspoken by most on here.
As for the sacred nature of the Treaty? You're having a laugh. Ask the French about sanctions when you break a Treaty.....they'll just smirk.
Maybe. Anyway it explains why the EU are screwing this down.
Comments
The UK government has committed to no hard borders between both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and between NI and Mainland Britain. There is one way to do that: the whole of the UK stays in the Single Market and Customs Union. We are not on board for that right now.
Looking further forward, 2021 probably won't be great for the Tories given the triumphs of May 2017.
This is the most mindlessly ideological government in living memory.
Only Labour can be trusted to condone violent language being used against women.
Unlikely is the new normal.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/961941638376579075
It is almost as if the press make things up to try to sell copies/get web traffic
There are deep and serious fractures in both the large parties.
Tory splits revolve around Brexit. If Brexit is in the past tense, they may be resolved and everyone lives happily ever after. Or they may leave such deep and raw wounds that the acrimony spreads covering every facet of policy and personality with argument and ill will.
Not knowing if the party will be as one, who the leader will be and the fallout from Brexit gives us a difficult job in assessing Tory hopes in 2022. This is before we begin to contemplate the unknown state if the country they have run for a few years.
Labour also are a split party. They tend to be far more compliant than the Tories in swallowing bitter pills, dissent and disagreement silently for the good of the party, keeping dissent low key and locked away. However, they have a large chunk of MPs who are not enthusiastic paid up Corbyites. Then we have the Labour unknowns. Where will the power lie is 4 years time? The NEC, Momentum, Leaders Office, Unions? Will there be reselections (a far softer option than deselections, but the same thing)? What platform will they be offering in public (and in private)? If Labour have good Council results, who will be elected and will they enhance or trash the reputation? Will JC be leader?
The we have the LibDems under Vince. Enough said, he was a bad choice.
If he is still there I suspect a doom laden result for them. However, they are intolerant of failed leaders (ask Ming, CK etc), so if they adopt a different leader will they peel votes away from either of the larger split parties?
So much is unknown right now, that 40% for any party looks optimistic.
Technology will take over any customs issues.
Another Remainer bogeyman in the dustbin.
Fewer and fewer proper journalists left now, so kudos to the Times for their front page on Oxfam today.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/961931118068019200
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/961928510553157634
I'd imagine the citizens of ROI may have an interest in this.
10 Prime Ministers of Canada (including of course the present one) came from Quebec,
It is Narnia-Thinking to suggest that the separatist claim will go away just because there is a Spanish PM from Barcelona.
Getting rid of Jezza does not automatically mean getting rid of the rest. Indeed, it is possible that McDonnell could replace - and he is an even scarier prospect.
*Blair was Scottish because he was born in Edinburgh
We’re going to crash out in March 2019 with no deal onto WTO terms because we’ve run out of time.
It’ll be fun.
Lots of recognition just how up in the air things are. Will both main parties really be so awful next time? If one is able to look a lot more mainstream than the other they could win a landslide, but if they are still in the current modes of hard-left vs. crush the saboteurs it'll probably be tight again.
One assumption needs challenging though - that Brexit will be done and dusted by 2020. Who are you kidding? It'll dominate the next decade, the polarising approach by the Government has guaranteed that? We'll spend the first half of the next decade trying to negotiate trade deals and get some agreement on an end state, then the second half trying to implement it. I can see Brexit dominating not just the next GE but the one after that.
If you don’t understand that, so be it; but if you want to look at a UK example: Gordon Brown was a staunch unionist, but it did not help the SNP to have him in Number 10. Having him replaced by David Cameron, an English Tory toff, was a God send. The SNP need the Tories in Number 10; Catalan separatists need PP in the Moncloa.
Will go on and on and on for another year. Yay.
"Would a major trading nation willingly give up preferential to the largest and richest free trade area in the word?"
The answer is obviously no. So I guess we are not actually leaving the EU?
Not great for us - but very ugly for them.
So yes I am entirely comfortable with the attacks on Soros.
See also France.
When is the critical moment - looks like it's just drifting to me and that we are being played by the EU who are getting bored of us.
All that happened is that they were traduced as collaborationists and so widely distrusted in Quebec.
If talks become deadlocked does anyone really believe the EU states will sit back and say it is upto Barnier while chaos is threatened across Europe.
And as for grounding our flights are they for real. Can anyone imagine how the rest of the world would perceive the EU and when we close our airspace to them how are transatlantic flights going to get into Europe.
The whole idea is so petty and pathetic indeed say a lot about why we need out
Then we’ll see Mrs May offering a referendum. Remain or Leave with no deal on WTO terms.
The government would be advised to make a sharp adjustment to business and employment tax rates to compensate.
The entrenchment is so set that almost no-one is changing their mind now; any decent Government would be prioritising healing the awful divides but this one doesn't seem to care. It's why Brexit is still no sure thing - there's none of that sense of the nation coming together about this that TMay claimed in her election pitch, and no mandate or majority for any form of Brexit (other than giving the NHS lots of money which Brexit will make harder not easier.)
As for the sacred nature of the Treaty? You're having a laugh. Ask the French about sanctions when you break a Treaty.....they'll just smirk.
What about his politics merits that?