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  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Infependent front page

    Tuition fees to be cut and incentives for science and tech students

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/treasury-paves-way-tuition-fee-cut/

    "The Treasury are happy to drop the maximum fee, if it makes the RAB [Resource Accounting and Budgeting] charge lower,” a well-placed source said."

    Smoke and mirrors?

    The RAB charge is (basically) the total % of tuition fee debt that the treasury doesn't get repaid.

    Reducing the RAB charge means making students pay more - Increasing the tuition fee burden.

    Which means Theresa would be backtracking on her October announcement...

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/9964

    This is going to be fun.
    I think it’s possible to reduce tuition fees but also RAB.
    Because the interest on the student debt is so high, and most never repay - that is theoretically a large amount of money Treasury miss out on.

    If Treasury reduced fees and made up the shortfall themselves (perhaps with a bit of a squeeze on universities to cut costs) then they could claim to have saved money. Bit of an accounting fiction.

    hmm. Interesting.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082


    Try putting that on the side of a bus.

    “Your vote is irrelevant. Your betters have decided because you got it wrong”

    That what you meant?

    You were told there was no downside to your vote, that your wages would go up, there’d be more public spending and lower taxes, but - hey - it didn’t happen, your job’s gone and your community’s falling to pieces. Go sovereignty

    You were told there would be an instant recession, sharp contraction in GDP and a surge in unemployment if you didn’t vote as you were told. And you voted how you wanted to anyway. That’s sovereignty.

    The alternative is just too economically damaging to large parts of the country.

    One thing that life has taught me is that just because an idea is bloody stupid and self damaging it doesn't mean that it won't happen. Indeed, I would venture that it is the normal human condition.

  • Try putting that on the side of a bus.

    “Your vote is irrelevant. Your betters have decided because you got it wrong”

    That what you meant?

    You were told there was no downside to your vote, that your wages would go up, there’d be more public spending and lower taxes, but - hey - it didn’t happen, your job’s gone and your community’s falling to pieces. Go sovereignty

    "Everything would have been fine if the Remainers hadn't fought for the side of the EU."

    I think people would rather believe that they were right, but other people ruined it, then that they were duped. Sincere apologies, human psychology.

    Dealing with the fall-out of a closed Nissan or Honda plant will undoubtedly involve the Brexit loons saying it is all the EU’s fault, but they are still going to have to deal with the aftermath. There are countless fractured communities across the UK still paying the price of government failure to manage the decline of heavy industry proactively in the 80s and 90s.

    Sure, there are going to be real consequences, but the Brexit loons won the public debate in 2016 and I see no sign of my side of the argument upping its game So who do you think is going to win the debate about who is to blame for the consequences?

    Being right is not enough. One also has to be persuasive. I know I just love being told how stupid I was whenever I've made a mistake.

    My point is that the blame game will be irrelevant. It’s dealing with the consequences of a bad Brexit that will count.

  • welshowl said:


    Try putting that on the side of a bus.

    “Your vote is irrelevant. Your betters have decided because you got it wrong”

    That what you meant?

    You were told there was no downside to your vote, that your wages would go up, there’d be more public spending and lower taxes, but - hey - it didn’t happen, your job’s gone and your community’s falling to pieces. Go sovereignty

    Yes the sky will fall and the waters rise and overwhelm us all.

    Or maybe not.

    Frankly as I said downthread it is clear by now this is existential to our independence. No price, I repeat no price, is not worth paying.

    Yep, for some of the more unhinged Brexiteers - especially the better off ones - that is undoubtedly the case.

  • Foxy said:


    Try putting that on the side of a bus.

    “Your vote is irrelevant. Your betters have decided because you got it wrong”

    That what you meant?

    You were told there was no downside to your vote, that your wages would go up, there’d be more public spending and lower taxes, but - hey - it didn’t happen, your job’s gone and your community’s falling to pieces. Go sovereignty

    You were told there would be an instant recession, sharp contraction in GDP and a surge in unemployment if you didn’t vote as you were told. And you voted how you wanted to anyway. That’s sovereignty.

    The alternative is just too economically damaging to large parts of the country.

    One thing that life has taught me is that just because an idea is bloody stupid and self damaging it doesn't mean that it won't happen. Indeed, I would venture that it is the normal human condition.

    I take your point and concede the danger, but there is still a part of me that believes enough Tory MPs would put country before party in order to prevent a final fall off the cliff. I admit I could be wrong, though.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited February 2018
    FF43 said:


    Just out of interest, do you think a Theresa May led government will achieve any better trade deals with the rest of the world post Brexit? My observation is she is hopelessly out of her depth negotiating with the EU and it does not bode well for any worthwhile trade deals with the three most important markets of China, India and the U.S. The talk about doing trade deals with New Zealand is welcome but small beer in the greater scheme of things. I still cannot understand the logic of walking away from the EU on economic grounds as it is like opening a corner shop but insulting the nearest shoppers and focusing on those furthest away.

    You may or may not be right but the UK voted to leave so leave we must
    Not so sure on that level, it is irresponsible in relation to the economy to proceed with something that overall is a worse position. I am fully aware people voted to Leave, however Johnson said we could have our cake and eat it or at the least try for a better deal than we had. Johnson even mentioned a second consultation of the people I seem to remember. If a Tory Brexit means the economy suffers severe structural changes then the political consequences will be dramatic and long lasting. The Tory brand will be tarnished for a generation. I still think that being part of the biggest trading block in the world with the ambition of enhancing a single market of prosperity that stretches across Europe was a better deal than the likely outcome of these botched negotiations. I still cannot accept the premise that creating barriers to high income yielding services to the EU are going to be replaced by equally high value services to third world countries. It just does not make sense.
    I think we will probably end up with a Norway type deal. It's a waste of time and resources that would have been better spent on priorities. We will also be rule takers instead of full participants in collective decision making. But it will keep a lot of what we have got and limit the damage. It's either that or a return to EU membership, but I can't see us stomaching that. At some point reality will impinge. The Canada FTA route is too uncertain, too long drawn out and too mediocre IMO.
    Canadian FTA at least allows an end to free movement, unlike the Norway option and that is why it remains the likely end result, unless say JRM replaces May before the end of March 2019 in which WTO terms becomes likely given his opposition to any regulatory alignment. That will be the case until we get Umunna or someone like him as a contender for PM and who is committed to the single market
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    welshowl said:



    Frankly as I said downthread it is clear by now this is existential to our independence. No price, I repeat no price, is not worth paying.

    The question here is how far people feel that they influence our Government's industrial policies to any meaningful extent. I think a lot of people reckon they don't, and are therefore not prepared to make enormous sacrifices to have trade rules decided by Mrs May rather than Mr Juncker.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237

    ...there is still a part of me that believes enough Tory MPs would put country before party...

    It's fair to say that for many MPs (not just the Conservative ones), this is not as true as it should be. The nature of partisan politics is that it is partisan, and it is all too easy for MPs to persuade themselves that what is good for the party is good for the country by definition.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237

    Sure, there are going to be real consequences, but the Brexit loons won the public debate in 2016 and I see no sign of my side of the argument upping its game So who do you think is going to win the debate about who is to blame for the consequences?

    Being right is not enough. One also has to be persuasive. I know I just love being told how stupid I was whenever I've made a mistake.

    You raise a wider point that is beginning to bother me quite a bit: namely, this isn't an political argument any more. The Government and PB is engaged in an argument with itself about what the shape of Brexit will be, and that argument is expressed in English between British people...which will be almost irrelevant to the outcome. We are now too close to Brexit Day for the optimistic outcomes and the window of opportunity for the others is closing fast. We should be debating what the shape of the final outcome will be, not what it should be, and making financial decisions accordingly.

    But the Remainers indulge in increasingly improbable Second Referendum rescue fantasies, and the Leavers engage in a doubling and redoubling of acceptable losses and blame. The former is the last reel of Brazil, and the latter is the Downfall speech. Neither is attractive nor useful.

    I wish I lived in a country that was governed by adults, but that seems not to be the case.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour got a small boost in the polls straight after the election, which took them up to 45% and 46% in some surveys.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    FWIW I suspect “trade deals” is a vastly over-rated aspect of BREXIT. Leaving the SM\CU after 40 years is a non-trivial challenge - but it won’t be the end of days. If we make stuff the world wants to buy, they’ll buy it. And if we don’t, they won’t. Whether or not we are in the SM/CU. There are significant challenges for companies with integrated supply chains - but they’ll adapt.
    I’d rather have 5% lower GDP in 15 years than no longer have voters trust the power of their vote.

    I for one do not trust the power of my vote. The Conservatives have been playing fast and loose with the rules over the last few years. I have much more faith in the EU institutions that I do in the UK ones. Thank you, Conservatives!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    edited February 2018
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:


    Just out of interest, do you think a Theresa May led government will achieve any better trade deals with the rest of the world post Brexit? My observation is she is hopelessly out of her depth negotiating with the EU and it does not bode well for any worthwhile trade deals with the three most important markets of China, India and the U.S. The talk about doing trade deals with New Zealand is welcome but small beer in the greater scheme of things. I still cannot understand the logic of walking away from the EU on economic grounds as it is like opening a corner shop but insulting the nearest shoppers and focusing on those furthest away.

    You may or may not be right but the UK voted to leave so leave we must
    Not so sure on that level, it is irresponsible in relation to the economy to proceed with something that overall is a worse position. I am fully aware people voted to Leave, however Johnson said we could have our cake and eat it or at the least try for a better deal than we had. Johnson even mentioned a second consultation of the people I seem to remember. If a Tory Brexit means the economy suffers severe structural changes then the political consequences will be dramatic and long lasting. The Tory brand will be tarnished for a generation. I still think that being part of the biggest trading block in the world with the ambition of enhancing a single market of prosperity that stretches across Europe was a better deal than the likely outcome of these botched negotiations. I still cannot accept the premise that creating barriers to high income yielding services to the EU are going to be replaced by equally high value services to third world countries. It just does not make sense.
    I think we will probably end up with a Norway type deal. It's a waste of time and resources that would have been better spent on priorities. We will also be rule takers instead of full participants in collective decision making. But it will keep a lot of what we have got and limit the damage. It's either that or a return to EU membership, but I can't see us stomaching that. At some point reality will impinge. The Canada FTA route is too uncertain, too long drawn out and too mediocre IMO.
    Canadian FTA at least allows an end to free movement, unlike the Norway option and that is why it remains the likely end result, unless say JRM replaces May before the end of March 2019 in which WTO terms becomes likely given his opposition to any regulatory alignment. That will be the case until we get Umunna or someone like him as a contender for PM and who is committed to the single market
    Isn't Norway's 'Free Movement" dependent on it's Schengen membership, not tt's EU deal?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941


    Isn't Norway's 'Free Movement" dependent on it's Schengen membership, not tt's EU deal?

    No. The four freedoms are laid out in the EEA agreement.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    RobD said:


    Isn't Norway's 'Free Movement" dependent on it's Schengen membership, not tt's EU deal?

    No. The four freedoms are laid out in the EEA agreement.
    So 'Norway' not an option then. Beginning to look like 'crash out'.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    PClipp said:

    FWIW I suspect “trade deals” is a vastly over-rated aspect of BREXIT. Leaving the SM\CU after 40 years is a non-trivial challenge - but it won’t be the end of days. If we make stuff the world wants to buy, they’ll buy it. And if we don’t, they won’t. Whether or not we are in the SM/CU. There are significant challenges for companies with integrated supply chains - but they’ll adapt.
    I’d rather have 5% lower GDP in 15 years than no longer have voters trust the power of their vote.

    I for one do not trust the power of my vote. The Conservatives have been playing fast and loose with the rules over the last few years. I have much more faith in the EU institutions that I do in the UK ones. Thank you, Conservatives!
    +1
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:


    Isn't Norway's 'Free Movement" dependent on it's Schengen membership, not tt's EU deal?

    No. The four freedoms are laid out in the EEA agreement.
    So 'Norway' not an option then. Beginning to look like 'crash out'.
    Why? Canada with a bit extra would do fine.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    PClipp said:

    FWIW I suspect “trade deals” is a vastly over-rated aspect of BREXIT. Leaving the SM\CU after 40 years is a non-trivial challenge - but it won’t be the end of days. If we make stuff the world wants to buy, they’ll buy it. And if we don’t, they won’t. Whether or not we are in the SM/CU. There are significant challenges for companies with integrated supply chains - but they’ll adapt.
    I’d rather have 5% lower GDP in 15 years than no longer have voters trust the power of their vote.

    I for one do not trust the power of my vote. The Conservatives have been playing fast and loose with the rules over the last few years. I have much more faith in the EU institutions that I do in the UK ones. Thank you, Conservatives!
    Ridiculous. Especially when you compare the UK to some of the rule breakers in the EU.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    What we too often seem to forget is that this situation...... how to organise leaving the EU is entirely down to the UK. The EU actively doesn't want us leave and is seeking to make the best of what, for it, is a very bad situation.
    It is therefore down to us to make the running on the arrangements, which, so far we have signally failed to do. We have told the club, formally, that we're leaving, but we still want to have some of the benefits of membership, but we don't appear to know what.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    What we too often seem to forget is that this situation...... how to organise leaving the EU is entirely down to the UK. The EU actively doesn't want us leave and is seeking to make the best of what, for it, is a very bad situation.
    It is therefore down to us to make the running on the arrangements, which, so far we have signally failed to do. We have told the club, formally, that we're leaving, but we still want to have some of the benefits of membership, but we don't appear to know what.

    It's not entirely down to the UK. The EU has choices too.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    RobD said:

    What we too often seem to forget is that this situation...... how to organise leaving the EU is entirely down to the UK. The EU actively doesn't want us leave and is seeking to make the best of what, for it, is a very bad situation.
    It is therefore down to us to make the running on the arrangements, which, so far we have signally failed to do. We have told the club, formally, that we're leaving, but we still want to have some of the benefits of membership, but we don't appear to know what.

    It's not entirely down to the UK. The EU has choices too.
    Basically it IS down to us. We started it!
  • Absolute wrong'un...

    Labour veteran Keith Vaz says he's too ill to be investigated over party with male escorts…but is fit enough to travel the world and cut ribbons

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5373877/Keith-Vaz-ill-male-escort-investigation.html
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Can anyone tell me why the UK government feels that:
    Refusing to guarantee permanent rights to EU nationals who come to live and work in Britain during the transition period
    is a point worth sticking on?!

    Because one of the characteristics of making a wrong decision is it leads on to other wrong decisions.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Can anyone tell me why the UK government feels that:
    Refusing to guarantee permanent rights to EU nationals who come to live and work in Britain during the transition period
    is a point worth sticking on?!

    Because the EU is saying “you’ve left” during transition but also asking for special rights
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    PClipp said:

    FWIW I suspect “trade deals” is a vastly over-rated aspect of BREXIT. Leaving the SM\CU after 40 years is a non-trivial challenge - but it won’t be the end of days. If we make stuff the world wants to buy, they’ll buy it. And if we don’t, they won’t. Whether or not we are in the SM/CU. There are significant challenges for companies with integrated supply chains - but they’ll adapt.
    I’d rather have 5% lower GDP in 15 years than no longer have voters trust the power of their vote.

    I for one do not trust the power of my vote. The Conservatives have been playing fast and loose with the rules over the last few years. I have much more faith in the EU institutions that I do in the UK ones. Thank you, Conservatives!
    Good point.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Charles said:

    Can anyone tell me why the UK government feels that:
    Refusing to guarantee permanent rights to EU nationals who come to live and work in Britain during the transition period
    is a point worth sticking on?!

    Because the EU is saying “you’ve left” during transition but also asking for special rights
    The lack of outrage for the EU's refusal to guarantee UK citizen rights is a sight to behold.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    New thread.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    What we too often seem to forget is that this situation...... how to organise leaving the EU is entirely down to the UK. The EU actively doesn't want us leave and is seeking to make the best of what, for it, is a very bad situation.
    It is therefore down to us to make the running on the arrangements, which, so far we have signally failed to do. We have told the club, formally, that we're leaving, but we still want to have some of the benefits of membership, but we don't appear to know what.

    We have repeatedly said what we want.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Charles said:

    What we too often seem to forget is that this situation...... how to organise leaving the EU is entirely down to the UK. The EU actively doesn't want us leave and is seeking to make the best of what, for it, is a very bad situation.
    It is therefore down to us to make the running on the arrangements, which, so far we have signally failed to do. We have told the club, formally, that we're leaving, but we still want to have some of the benefits of membership, but we don't appear to know what.

    We have repeatedly said what we want.
    What is it then?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:


    Just out of interest, do you think a Theresa May led government will achieve any better trade deals with the rest of the world post Brexit? My observation is she is hopelessly out of her depth negotiating with the EU and it does not bode well for any worthwhile trade deals with the three most important markets of China, India and the U.S. The talk about doing trade deals with New Zealand is welcome but small beer in the greater scheme of things. I still cannot understand the logic of walking away from the EU on economic grounds as it is like opening a corner shop but insulting the nearest shoppers and focusing on those furthest away.

    You may or may not be right but the UK voted to leave so leave we must
    Not so sure on that level, it is irresponsible in relation to the economy to proceed with something that overall is a worse position. I am fully aware people voted to Leave, e botched negotiations. I still cannot accept the premise that creating barriers to high income yielding services to the EU are going to be replaced by equally high value services to third world countries. It just does not make sense.
    I think we will probably end up with a Norway type deal. It's a waste of time and resources that would have been better spent on priorities. We will also be rule takers instead of full participants in collective decision making. But it will keep a lot of what we have got and limit the damage. It's either that or a return to EU membership, but I can't see us stomaching that. At some point reality will impinge. The Canada FTA route is too uncertain, too long drawn out and too mediocre IMO.
    Canadian FTA at least allows an end to free movement, unlike the Norway option and that is why it remains the likely end result, unless say JRM replaces May before the end of March 2019 in which WTO terms becomes likely given his opposition to any regulatory alignment. That will be the case until we get Umunna or someone like him as a contender for PM and who is committed to the single market
    Isn't Norway's 'Free Movement" dependent on it's Schengen membership, not tt's EU deal?
    No as that only relates to passport free movement not free movement to travel, study and work etc
This discussion has been closed.