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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The hard way. Gaining votes is not enough

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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,583

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    Scottish Fishermen have been anti EU throughout. I remember the anger of my father in law, a highly successful Scottish skipper, before we joined the EU
    South coast fisherman have always been opposed to it as well. And I can see their point. Never worked out why so many farmers are anti-EU though. I am sure someone on here can enlighten me.
    Maybe there's something in David Goodhart's ‘Somewheres’ versus ‘Anywheres’ analysis... Farmers tend to be very much 'somewheres', for obvious reasons.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    Scottish Fishermen have been anti EU throughout. I remember the anger of my father in law, a highly successful Scottish skipper, before we joined the EU
    South coast fisherman have always been opposed to it as well. And I can see their point. Never worked out why so many farmers are anti-EU though. I am sure someone on here can enlighten me.
    Maybe there's something in David Goodhart's ‘Somewheres’ versus ‘Anywheres’ analysis... Farmers tend to be very much 'somewheres', for obvious reasons.
    Farmers get extremely attached to their land in a way that most of us would find hard to understand.
  • Options
    calum said:

    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

    Quite right
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,583
    calum said:

    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

    Which makes me wonder, is a non-confidentiality agreement legal if it is used to supress reporting of criminal behaviour?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    calum said:

    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

    They couldn’t enforce them anyway if there was a criminal complaint...
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    Scottish Fishermen have been anti EU throughout. I remember the anger of my father in law, a highly successful Scottish skipper, before we joined the EU
    South coast fisherman have always been opposed to it as well. And I can see their point. Never worked out why so many farmers are anti-EU though. I am sure someone on here can enlighten me.
    Maybe there's something in David Goodhart's ‘Somewheres’ versus ‘Anywheres’ analysis... Farmers tend to be very much 'somewheres', for obvious reasons.
    Hadn't seen that, but it looks really interesting. Thanks for drawing it to my attention.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799

    calum said:

    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

    Which makes me wonder, is a non-confidentiality agreement legal if it is used to supress reporting of criminal behaviour?
    No.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    Scottish Fishermen have been anti EU throughout. I remember the anger of my father in law, a highly successful Scottish skipper, before we joined the EU
    South coast fisherman have always been opposed to it as well. And I can see their point. Never worked out why so many farmers are anti-EU though. I am sure someone on here can enlighten me.
    Maybe there's something in David Goodhart's ‘Somewheres’ versus ‘Anywheres’ analysis... Farmers tend to be very much 'somewheres', for obvious reasons.
    Farmers get extremely attached to their land in a way that most of us would find hard to understand.
    Especially when it farmed over generations - I spent some time in the Summer Country last year walking his land with a farmer whose family had worked that patch for close to a thousand years. There is a very different feel when people talk about making changes that might take 2 or 3 generations to see in their full glory
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    Scottish Fishermen have been anti EU throughout. I remember the anger of my father in law, a highly successful Scottish skipper, before we joined the EU
    South coast fisherman have always been opposed to it as well. And I can see their point. Never worked out why so many farmers are anti-EU though. I am sure someone on here can enlighten me.
    Maybe there's something in David Goodhart's ‘Somewheres’ versus ‘Anywheres’ analysis... Farmers tend to be very much 'somewheres', for obvious reasons.
    Farmers get extremely attached to their land in a way that most of us would find hard to understand.
    Especially when it farmed over generations - I spent some time in the Summer Country last year walking his land with a farmer whose family had worked that patch for close to a thousand years. There is a very different feel when people talk about making changes that might take 2 or 3 generations to see in their full glory
    Such privilege is a world where many have insufficient security to plan for next week.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    PeterC said:



    But the fact that the young are so anti-Brexit is nonetheless an important data point. So as a remainer it has no particular salience because we still lost and have no right to overturn the democratic decision. However if you are a leaver you could take the view that although we could go through with it, maybe we really shouldn't. Do you really want to wrench a generation away from something that they value? And in any case will reverse as soon as the opportunity arises? If enough leavers started coming forward saying that kind of thing we might just be able to get ourselves out of it. Search your consciouses guys!

    Young people become older and often change their views. What happened to young pro-marketeers (as they were called) in 1975? There is no evidernce that the population will necessarily become more pro-EU simply as the result of the passage of time
    No, they will become more pro-EU as a result of the passage of Brexit.

    Brexiteers face an electoral double whammy: a demographic time bomb, and a political backlash.
    How do you know how people will vote in the future?
    I return to my earlier question. What are Leavers doing to persuade Remain supporters to rethink?
    All that one can do is re-state one's arguments. Events will determine how Brexit is seen by future generations of voters. If it's a horror show, no doubt they'll wish to rejoin. If it turns out to be okay, then a natural bias towards the status quo will ensure that staying out of the EU is the received wisdom.
    That's far too complacent. Leave's conduct before and since the referendum has ensured that many voters will regard it as a horror show, whatever the objective facts. The disgust for Leave is visceral for many.

    Leave need to start showing that they have some interest in the large numbers of people who didn't vote for Leave and who so far think it's a mistake.
    I think that Theresa May's government will win over Remain voters like Carlotta Vance, HYUFD, John O, Ydoethur. I don't think that there is anything they could do to win over you, or voters who share your beliefs.
    Carlotta? She became a devotee of Theresa and Theresa's brand of Leaviness the instant Theresa assumed the leadership.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138

    Not sure that this has been linked to previously, but it's a very detailed analysis of how difficult it is going to be for the UK to replicate the trade agreements it currently has through the EU. Obviously, the Brexit loons will have no interest whatsoever, but it may give more pragmatic, thoughtful Leave supporters cause for concern.
    https://twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/963410432504614912

    There is so much hard work to be done in this area. The idea that it is being done by Fox is deeply depressing. It is not going to be straightforward but most of the issues can be sorted and agreed with considerable diligence, intelligence and realism. I'm scoring Fox 0/3 on that count.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Charles said:

    calum said:

    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

    They couldn’t enforce them anyway if there was a criminal complaint...
    They could if the complaint failed.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,583
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    calum said:

    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

    They couldn’t enforce them anyway if there was a criminal complaint...
    They could if the complaint failed.
    Bit late then, surely?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    Scottish Fishermen have been anti EU throughout. I remember the anger of my father in law, a highly successful Scottish skipper, before we joined the EU
    South coast fisherman have always been opposed to it as well. And I can see their point. Never worked out why so many farmers are anti-EU though. I am sure someone on here can enlighten me.
    Maybe there's something in David Goodhart's ‘Somewheres’ versus ‘Anywheres’ analysis... Farmers tend to be very much 'somewheres', for obvious reasons.
    Farmers get extremely attached to their land in a way that most of us would find hard to understand.
    Especially when it farmed over generations - I spent some time in the Summer Country last year walking his land with a farmer whose family had worked that patch for close to a thousand years. There is a very different feel when people talk about making changes that might take 2 or 3 generations to see in their full glory
    Such privilege is a world where many have insufficient security to plan for next week.
    Yes, it’s a privilege (I was just a visitor) but one which carries with it many obligations and duties.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Brexiteers are still searching for the killer argument against a second referendum.
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/963430125063888896

    Some young people are narcissistic and arrogant enough to think their votes should count for more. I wonder if they’ll think the same when they’re 65+?
    The argument isn't that their votes should count for more; it's that their votes will be counted again, and again, and again, and again, so if this will ultimately lead to Brexit being reversed, we might as well save ourselves the hassle and cancel it now. (With the bonus for Eurosceptics that we'd keep our opt-outs.)
    There is no special merit in the opinions of voters aged 18-24.
    But the fact that the young are so anti-Brexit is nonetheless an important data point. So as a remainer it has no particular salience because we still lost and have no right to overturn the democratic decision. However if you are a leaver you could take the view that although we could go through with it, maybe we really shouldn't. Do you really want to wrench a generation away from something that they value? And in any case will reverse as soon as the opportunity arises? If enough leavers started coming forward saying that kind of thing we might just be able to get ourselves out of it. Search your consciouses guys!
    Seems to me it should be left to the passage of time. If the people now young find that they retain their communal strong desire to be part of the EU, then they will bring up their own children with the mythology of what we lost/threw away.

    In 40 years' time, the EU will have come to seem so very desirable that the UK can join it wholeheartedly, as a full member of the emerging USE. Or not - their choice, in their own time.

    That, to me, will be a far better outcome than either trying to persuade people to abandon strongly held views on the matter or forcing a union on a population which is so divided.

    Good evening, everybody.
    Good evening Anne.

    It might not take forty years. If the UK rejoins the EU, it will do sans opt outs, just as the western Balkan states will. That would be healthier - I don't think there's much future for countries outside the Eurozone.
    If anything Europe will split into two in a few decades between a Eurozone inner core and an EFTA outer core if the euro becomes a requirement of EU membership
  • Options

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    I'm going on publicly available information that UK policy will shift from land/crop based subsidy by acreage to one based on biodiversity, preserving habitats and woodland, and public access. I also expect strengthening of animal welfare standards.

    I expect something similar for fisheries.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Brexiteers are still searching for the killer argument against a second referendum.
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/963430125063888896

    Some young people are narcissistic and arrogant enough to think their votes should count for more. I wonder if they’ll think the same when they’re 65+?
    The argument isn't that their votes should count for more; it's that their votes will be counted again, and again, and again, and again, so if this will ultimately lead to Brexit being reversed, we might as well save ourselves the hassle and cancel it now. (With the bonus for Eurosceptics that we'd keep our opt-outs.)
    There is no special merit in the opinions of voters aged 18-24.
    Seems to me it should be left to the passage of time. If the people now young find that they retain their communal strong desire to be part of the EU, then they will bring up their own children with the mythology of what we lost/threw away.

    In 40 years' time, the EU will have come to seem so very desirable that the UK can join it wholeheartedly, as a full member of the emerging USE. Or not - their choice, in their own time.

    That, to me, will be a far better outcome than either trying to persuade people to abandon strongly held views on the matter or forcing a union on a population which is so divided.

    Good evening, everybody.
    Good evening Anne.

    It might not take forty years. If the UK rejoins the EU, it will do sans opt outs, just as the western Balkan states will. That would be healthier - I don't think there's much future for countries outside the Eurozone.
    If anything Europe will split into two in a few decades between a Eurozone inner core and an EFTA outer core if the euro becomes a requirement of EU membership
    It already is a requirement. The only two countries with an opt out are the UK and Denmark. For political reasons, countries have been allowed to play silly sods with respect to ERM II, but they're all under a treaty obligation to join.
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    PlankPlank Posts: 71
    I am a bit under the weather today so spent sometime inside leafing through my copy of this month's "The Farmer". An article on the back page claimed that the average advertised salary in Agriculture was 9.5 percent higher in 2017 compared to 2016. Although the data may need a health warning as it was based on research paid for by a job site (CV-Library).
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Brexiteers are still searching for the killer argument against a second referendum.
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/963430125063888896

    Some young people are narcissistic and arrogant enough to think their votes should count for more. I wonder if they’ll think the same when they’re 65+?
    The argument isn't that their votes should count for more; it's that their votes will be counted again, and again, and again, and again, so if this will ultimately lead to Brexit being reversed, we might as well save ourselves the hassle and cancel it now. (With the bonus for Eurosceptics that we'd keep our opt-outs.)
    Implying that their opinion is fixed. It isn't.
    Do tell me what Leavers are doing to persuade Remain voters to rethink. Because from here it looks like Leavers are simply cementing Remain voters in their original decision.
    The issue was that a small, but influential and vocal group of Remainers started from almost the day after the vote trying to frustrate the vote. Even cases like Gina Miller - and this is setting aside the legal question she was testing - was presented (fairly or not) as an attempt to stop Brexit

    Against that backdrop it’s not surprising that Leave voters dug in and became defensive: they had won, unexpectedly and against the odds, and were facing a hideous caterwauling from people with the power to take their prize away from them.

    Perhaps they should have been better people and tried to reach out but o can understand why they didn’t
    To be fair Charles, had the referendum gone the other way there would still have been a "small, but influential and vocal group... trying to frustrate the vote", just on the other side.
    No, because the mechanics are asymmetrical. The government wouldn't have been obliged to do or not do anything after a remain vote, so where would leave direct a Gina miller type attack? And who would have been the Gina Miller figure, incidentally? I suspect leave would have struggled to find a figure head as ostensibly rational and attractive as her.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Brexiteers are still searching for the killer argument against a second referendum.
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/963430125063888896

    Some young people are narcissistic and arrogant enough to think their votes should count for more. I wonder if they’ll think the same when they’re 65+?
    The argument isn't that their votes should count for more; it's that their votes will be counted again, and again, and again, and again, so if this will ultimately lead to Brexit being reversed, we might as well save ourselves the hassle and cancel it now. (With the bonus for Eurosceptics that we'd keep our opt-outs.)
    There is no special merit in the opinions of voters aged 18-24.
    But the fact that the young are so anti-Brexit is nonetheless an important data point. So as a remainer it has no particular salience because we still lost and have no right to overturn the democratic decision. However if you are a leaver you could take the view that although we could go through with it, maybe we really shouldn't. Do you really want to wrench a generation away from something that they value? And in any case will reverse as soon as the opportunity arises? If enough leavers started coming forward saying that kind of thing we might just be able to get ourselves out of it. Search your consciouses guys!
    Seems to me it should be left to the passage of time. If the people now young find that they retain their communal strong desire to be part of the EU, then they will bring up their own children with the mythology of what we lost/threw away.

    In 40 years' time, the EU will have come to seem so very desirable that the UK can join it wholeheartedly, as a full member of the emerging USE. Or not - their choice, in their own time.

    That, to me, will be a far better outcome than either trying to persuade people to abandon strongly held views on the matter or forcing a union on a population which is so divided.

    Good evening, everybody.
    Good evening Anne.

    It might not take forty years. If the UK rejoins the EU, it will do sans opt outs, just as the western Balkan states will. That would be healthier - I don't think there's much future for countries outside the Eurozone.
    If anything Europe will split into two in a few decades between a Eurozone inner core and an EFTA outer core if the euro becomes a requirement of EU membership
    The debate in Poland is moving towards joining the Euro.

    http://www.rp.pl/Finanse/301019939-Przyjecie-euro---list-otwarty-Premierze-Morawiecki-juz-czas-na-euro.html
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    calum said:

    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

    They couldn’t enforce them anyway if there was a criminal complaint...
    They could if the complaint failed.
    I don’t think the courts would allow a contract that prevented a complaint to the police to stand as valid
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    I'm going on publicly available information that UK policy will shift from land/crop based subsidy by acreage to one based on biodiversity, preserving habitats and woodland, and public access. I also expect strengthening of animal welfare standards.

    I expect something similar for fisheries.
    Well there's a positive vision of Brexit. If it was like that across the board it might even win me over. And even if it didn't at least I'd have some nice wild flowers to look at in the time freed up by lost orders.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    calum said:

    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

    They couldn’t enforce them anyway if there was a criminal complaint...
    They could if the complaint failed.
    I don’t think the courts would allow a contract that prevented a complaint to the police to stand as valid
    On reflection I think you are right.
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    Well done Spurs 2 - 2
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    DavidL said:

    Not sure that this has been linked to previously, but it's a very detailed analysis of how difficult it is going to be for the UK to replicate the trade agreements it currently has through the EU. Obviously, the Brexit loons will have no interest whatsoever, but it may give more pragmatic, thoughtful Leave supporters cause for concern.
    https://twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/963410432504614912

    There is so much hard work to be done in this area. The idea that it is being done by Fox is deeply depressing. It is not going to be straightforward but most of the issues can be sorted and agreed with considerable diligence, intelligence and realism. I'm scoring Fox 0/3 on that count.
    Why was Liam appointed in the first place is what I want to know. His is arguably the most vital job of Brexit. If DD screwed up then the idea was that we'd have all these other trade deals to cushion the blow; but if Liam hasn't done them then it's economic Armageddon time. The nation's future is in Liam's hands as surely as it was in Churchill's in 1940.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Brexiteers are still searching for the killer argument against a second referendum.
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/963430125063888896

    Some young people are narcissistic and arrogant enough to think their votes should count for more. I wonder if they’ll think the same when they’re 65+?
    The argument isn't that their votes should count for more; it's that their votes will be counted again, and again, and again, and again, so if this will ultimately lead to Brexit being reversed, we might as well save ourselves the hassle and cancel it now. (With the bonus for Eurosceptics that we'd keep our opt-outs.)
    There is no special merit in the opinions of voters aged 18-24.
    Seems to me it should be left to the passage of time. If the people now young find that they retain their communal strong desire to be part of the EU, then they will bring up their own children with the mythology of what we lost/threw away.

    In 40 years' time, the EU will have come to seem so very desirable that the UK can join it wholeheartedly, as a full member of the emerging USE. Or not - their choice, in their own time.

    That, to me, will be a far better outcome than either trying to persuade people to abandon strongly held views on the matter or forcing a union on a population which is so divided.

    Good evening, everybody.
    Good evening Anne.

    It might not take forty years. If the UK rejoins the EU, it will do sans opt outs, just as the western Balkan states will. That would be healthier - I don't think there's much future for countries outside the Eurozone.
    If anything Europe will split into two in a few decades between a Eurozone inner core and an EFTA outer core if the euro becomes a requirement of EU membership
    It already is a requirement. The only two countries with an opt out are the UK and Denmark. For political reasons, countries have been allowed to play silly sods with respect to ERM II, but they're all under a treaty obligation to join.
    Which none of them in reality will ever implement, Sweden and Denmark both voted against the Euro in referendums and most of Eastern Europe has no interest in joining the Eurozone either
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Brexiteers are still searching for the killer argument against a second referendum.
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/963430125063888896

    Some young people are narcissistic and arrogant enough to think their votes should count for more. I wonder if they’ll think the same when they’re 65+?
    The argument isn't that their votes should count for more; it's that their votes will be counted again, and again, and again, and again, so if this will ultimately lead to Brexit being reversed, we might as well save ourselves the hassle and cancel it now. (With the bonus for Eurosceptics that we'd keep our opt-outs.)
    There is no special merit in the opinions of voters aged 18-24.
    But the fact that the young are so anti-Brexit is nonetheless an important data point. ward saying that kind of thing we might just be able to get ourselves out of it. Search your consciouses guys!
    Seems to me it should be left to the passage of time. If the people now young find that they retain their communal strong desire to be part of the EU, then they will bring up their own children with the mythology of what we lost/threw away.

    In 40 years' time, the EU will have come to seem so very desirable that the UK can join it wholeheartedly, as a full member of the emerging USE. Or not - their choice, in their own time.

    That, to me, will be a far better outcome than either trying to persuade people to abandon strongly held views on the matter or forcing a union on a population which is so divided.

    Good evening, everybody.
    Good evening Anne.

    It might not take forty years. If the UK rejoins the EU, it will do sans opt outs, just as the western Balkan states will. That would be healthier - I don't think there's much future for countries outside the Eurozone.
    If anything Europe will split into two in a few decades between a Eurozone inner core and an EFTA outer core if the euro becomes a requirement of EU membership
    The debate in Poland is moving towards joining the Euro.

    http://www.rp.pl/Finanse/301019939-Przyjecie-euro---list-otwarty-Premierze-Morawiecki-juz-czas-na-euro.html
    Not according to the polling
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,583

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    I'm going on publicly available information that UK policy will shift from land/crop based subsidy by acreage to one based on biodiversity, preserving habitats and woodland, and public access. I also expect strengthening of animal welfare standards.

    I expect something similar for fisheries.
    It would be great to see a cap applied to the maximum subsidy claimable by any one individual or business. The amount of our taxes paid to some large landowners is truly outrageous, e.g:
    https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/paul-dacre-langwell-estate
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    Scott_P said:
    So the prospect of Boris's great speech of healing and consolidation lasted, what, 48 hours?
  • Options

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    I'm going on publicly available information that UK policy will shift from land/crop based subsidy by acreage to one based on biodiversity, preserving habitats and woodland, and public access. I also expect strengthening of animal welfare standards.

    I expect something similar for fisheries.
    Well there's a positive vision of Brexit. If it was like that across the board it might even win me over. And even if it didn't at least I'd have some nice wild flowers to look at in the time freed up by lost orders.
    I think we're at a point in the Brexit process where the costs are obvious and immediate, whilst the benefits will take time to both become apparent and feed through. The UK economy and world will develop in ways we cannot possibly know today. It's a decision about tomorrow, not just today.

    I hope to win you over in time. Keeping it positive and about a brighter future is key, I agree.
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited February 2018
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    I return to my earlier question. What are Leavers doing to persuade Remain supporters to rethink?

    You could respond to earlier replies...
    You gave an explanation why they didn’t. That won’t do Leavers much good if in ten years no one has changed their minds. By then demography would ensure that they were in a definite minority.

    If Leavers want their insurrection to survive, they need to find a way to reach out to their former opponents. For nearly two years they’ve been calling them traitors and saboteurs. Not the best of starts.
    There was fault on both sides

    But until it is done then little healing can happen because there are those who insist on picking at the scabs
    You’re missing the point. In two different ways this is Leave’s problem. First, if Brexit is to be anything other than dismal, Leave need some form of consensus and not a divided country. Secondly, their voters will die off quite quickly and unless replaced they will soon be in a minority. Where are the replacements going to come from? Leave hasn’t exactly been conducting a charm offensive.
    You’ve made quite clear you don’t want to be charmed. The polls suggest a clear majority wants Brexit done (they may not have voted for it but they accept that the majority did)
    I would be one of the many voters who didn't vote for Brexit and who regards it as democratically necessary that it be seen through to its bitter conclusion. Bear that in mind before assuming that the public is phlegmatic about the prospect.
    Alastair, with the greatest of respect, you are neither representative of, nor understand, the British people
    When May apparently told Osborne that he should know his party better I wonder whether she prefaced that using "with the greatest respect".
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    Scottish Fishermen have been anti EU throughout. I remember the anger of my father in law, a highly successful Scottish skipper, before we joined the EU
    South coast fisherman have always been opposed to it as well. And I can see their point. Never worked out why so many farmers are anti-EU though. I am sure someone on here can enlighten me.
    Maybe there's something in David Goodhart's ‘Somewheres’ versus ‘Anywheres’ analysis... Farmers tend to be very much 'somewheres', for obvious reasons.
    Farmers get extremely attached to their land in a way that most of us would find hard to understand.
    Especially when it farmed over generations - I spent some time in the Summer Country last year walking his land with a farmer whose family had worked that patch for close to a thousand years. There is a very different feel when people talk about making changes that might take 2 or 3 generations to see in their full glory
    Such privilege is a world where many have insufficient security to plan for next week.
    Yes, it’s a privilege (I was just a visitor) but one which carries with it many obligations and duties.
    Which the vast majority of farmers are singularly failing to fulfil.

    Guardians of the countryside my arse.

    Time to buy another 4x4, paid for by the rest of us via the Brussels magic money tree.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    edited February 2018

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    I'm going on publicly available information that UK policy will shift from land/crop based subsidy by acreage to one based on biodiversity, preserving habitats and woodland, and public access. I also expect strengthening of animal welfare standards.

    I expect something similar for fisheries.
    Well there's a positive vision of Brexit. If it was like that across the board it might even win me over. And even if it didn't at least I'd have some nice wild flowers to look at in the time freed up by lost orders.
    It is a vision of British farming protected against agribusiness in a way rather incompatible with an FTA with chlorinated chicken land.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Toms said:

    When May apparently told Osborne that he should know his party better I wonder whether she prefaced that using "with greatest respect".

    And now he speaks to the Nation while she cowers in No 10
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Scott_P said:
    Still waiting for that senior minister to resign and call for Mrs M's replacement.....

    The Sun seem to be way off on politics recently. Is Shippers getting all the scoops? Deserves to, given the way he can write.
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    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:
    Still waiting for that senior minister to resign and call for Mrs M's replacement.....

    The Sun seem to be way off on politics recently. Is Shippers getting all the scoops? Deserves to, given the way he can write.
    The Sun article isn't a scoop; Boris's people will have briefed them.
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    PlankPlank Posts: 71



    Time to buy another 4x4, paid for by the rest of us via the Brussels magic money tree.

    Pish. Mitsubishi will sell a Hybrid 4x4 at 40% off the list price as a Business to Business fleet sale (even if a fleet of one). If sold after 4 years the various tax reliefs will cover the depreciation making the vehicle effectively free. Brussels magic money tree not required.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    I'm going on publicly available information that UK policy will shift from land/crop based subsidy by acreage to one based on biodiversity, preserving habitats and woodland, and public access. I also expect strengthening of animal welfare standards.

    I expect something similar for fisheries.
    Well there's a positive vision of Brexit. If it was like that across the board it might even win me over. And even if it didn't at least I'd have some nice wild flowers to look at in the time freed up by lost orders.
    I hope to win you over in time. Keeping it positive and about a brighter future is key, I agree.
    The future’s bright. The future’s European.

    The UK reversing Brexit will be an event of real geopolitical significance in a way that Brexit wasn’t able to be.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,322



    I'm going on publicly available information that UK policy will shift from land/crop based subsidy by acreage to one based on biodiversity, preserving habitats and woodland, and public access. I also expect strengthening of animal welfare standards.

    I expect something similar for fisheries.

    Looks like it on the first para, and very welcome. Haven't heard anything about fisheries yet - there is a Bill coming later this year, though.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Brexiteers are still searching for the killer argument against a second referendum.
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/963430125063888896

    Some young people are narcissistic and arrogant enough to think their votes should count for more. I wonder if they’ll think the same when they’re 65+?
    The argument isn't that their votes should count for more; it's that their votes will be counted again, and again, and again, and again, so if this will ultimately lead to Brexit being reversed, we might as well save ourselves the hassle and cancel it now. (With the bonus for Eurosceptics that we'd keep our opt-outs.)
    There is no special merit in the opinions of voters aged 18-24.
    Seems to me it should be left to the passage of time. If the people now young find that they retain their communal strong desire to be part of the EU, then they will bring up their own children with the mythology of what we lost/threw away.

    In 40 years' time, the EU will have come to seem so very desirable that the UK can join it wholeheartedly, as a full member of the emerging USE. Or not - their choice, in their own time.

    That, to me, will be a far better outcome than either trying to persuade people to abandon strongly held views on the matter or forcing a union on a population which is so divided.

    Good evening, everybody.
    Good evening Anne.

    It might not take forty years. If the UK rejoins the EU, it will do sans opt outs, just as the western Balkan states will. That would be healthier - I don't think there's much future for countries outside the Eurozone.
    If anything Europe will split into two in a few decades between a Eurozone inner core and an EFTA outer core if the euro becomes a requirement of EU membership
    It already is a requirement. The only two countries with an opt out are the UK and Denmark. For political reasons, countries have been allowed to play silly sods with respect to ERM II, but they're all under a treaty obligation to join.
    Which none of them in reality will ever implement, Sweden and Denmark both voted against the Euro in referendums and most of Eastern Europe has no interest in joining the Eurozone either
    With the changes to QMV last May, and the simple fact that the EZ countries agree their position before any CoM meeting, I think the political dynamics will change. Without the UK, the EZ can outvote the others.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,951
    edited February 2018
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Brexiteers are still searching for the killer argument against a second referendum.
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/963430125063888896

    Some young people are narcissistic and arrogant enough to think their votes should count for more. I wonder if they’ll think the same when they’re 65+?
    The argument isn't that their votes should count for more; it's that their votes will be counted again, and again, and again, and again, so if this will ultimately lead to Brexit being reversed, we might as well save ourselves the hassle and cancel it now. (With the bonus for Eurosceptics that we'd keep our opt-outs.)
    There is no special merit in the opinions of voters aged 18-24.
    Seems to me it should be left to the passage of time. If the people now young find that they retain their communal strong desire to be part of the EU, then they will bring up their own children with the mythology of what we lost/threw away.

    In 40 years' time, the EU will have come to seem so er or forcing a union on a population which is so divided.

    Good evening, everybody.
    Good evening Anne.

    It might not take forty years. If the UK rejoins the EU, it will do sans opt outs, just as the western Balkan states will. That would be healthier - I don't think there's much future for countries outside the Eurozone.
    If anything Europe will split into two in a few decades between a Eurozone inner core and an EFTA outer core if the euro becomes a requirement of EU membership
    It already is a requirement. The only two countries with an opt out are the UK and Denmark. For political reasons, countries have been allowed to play silly sods with respect to ERM II, but they're all under a treaty obligation to join.
    Which none of them in reality will ever implement, Sweden and Denmark both voted against the Euro in referendums and most of Eastern Europe has no interest in joining the Eurozone either
    With the changes to QMV last May, and the simple fact that the EZ countries agree their position before any CoM meeting, I think the political dynamics will change. Without the UK, the EZ can outvote the others.
    If it came to a forced choice between staying in the EU and joining the Euro or leaving and joining Norway in EFTA Sweden and Denmark would be likely to leave. Given a similar choice I would also expect Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic etc to leave the EU too
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    Scott_P said:

    Toms said:

    When May apparently told Osborne that he should know his party better I wonder whether she prefaced that using "with greatest respect".

    And now he speaks to the Nation while she cowers in No 10
    The New Statesman you mean? I'm not sure who else he has been talking to.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sean_F said:



    The argument isn't that their votes should count for more; it's that their votes will be counted again, and again, and again, and again, so if this will ultimately lead to Brexit being reversed, we might as well save ourselves the hassle and cancel it now. (With the bonus for Eurosceptics that we'd keep our opt-outs.)

    There is no special merit in the opinions of voters aged 18-24.
    Seems to me it should be left to the passage of time. If the people now young find that they retain their communal strong desire to be part of the EU, then they will bring up their own children with the mythology of what we lost/threw away.

    In 40 years' time, the EU will have come to seem so very desirable that the UK can join it wholeheartedly, as a full member of the emerging USE. Or not - their choice, in their own time.

    That, to me, will be a far better outcome than either trying to persuade people to abandon strongly held views on the matter or forcing a union on a population which is so divided.

    Good evening, everybody.
    Good evening Anne.

    It might not take forty years. If the UK rejoins the EU, it will do sans opt outs, just as the western Balkan states will. That would be healthier - I don't think there's much future for countries outside the Eurozone.
    If anything Europe will split into two in a few decades between a Eurozone inner core and an EFTA outer core if the euro becomes a requirement of EU membership
    It already is a requirement. The only two countries with an opt out are the UK and Denmark. For political reasons, countries have been allowed to play silly sods with respect to ERM II, but they're all under a treaty obligation to join.
    Which none of them in reality will ever implement, Sweden and Denmark both voted against the Euro in referendums and most of Eastern Europe has no interest in joining the Eurozone either
    With the changes to QMV last May, and the simple fact that the EZ countries agree their position before any CoM meeting, I think the political dynamics will change. Without the UK, the EZ can outvote the others.
    Not a recipe for harmony however.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Foxy said:

    On the subject of Brexit, I already see our fisheries and agriculture policies being much better and more sustainable outside the EU.

    I put that almost entirely down to Gove.

    It's telling that when the Government has competent ministers with vision, who can paint a picture of what'll be different and how it'll be be better, Brexit looks far more positive.

    Theresa May is not that person - far too technocratic - but it looks very much to me like Government policy is converging on high alignment in manufactured goods with intercontinental supply chains, and divergence in services and future digital tech.

    Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    I'm going on publicly available information that UK policy will shift from land/crop based subsidy by acreage to one based on biodiversity, preserving habitats and woodland, and public access. I also expect strengthening of animal welfare standards.

    I expect something similar for fisheries.
    Well there's a positive vision of Brexit. If it was like that across the board it might even win me over. And even if it didn't at least I'd have some nice wild flowers to look at in the time freed up by lost orders.
    It is a vision of British farming protected against agribusiness in a way rather incompatible with an FTA with chlorinated chicken land.
    Well we don't have either a high value biodiverse agro policy or a free market free for all FTA yet, so we might as well enjoy this brief period while there are still possibilities. A bit like when you are applying for jobs but before you have got one.
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    NEW THREAD
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Brexiteers are still searching for the killer argument against a second referendum.
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/963430125063888896

    Some young people are narcissistic and arrogant enough to think their votes should count for more. I wonder if they’ll think the same when they’re 65+?
    There is no special merit in the opinions of voters aged 18-24.
    Seems to me it should be left to the passage of time. If the people now young find that they retain their communal strong desire to be part of the EU, then they will bring up their own children with the mythology of what we lost/threw away.

    In 40 years' time, the EU will have come to seem so er or forcing a union on a population which is so divided.

    Good evening, everybody.
    Good evening Anne.

    It might not take forty years. If the UK rejoins the EU, it will do sans opt outs, just as the western Balkan states will. That would be healthier - I don't think there's much future for countries outside the Eurozone.
    If anything Europe will split into two in a few decades between a Eurozone inner core and an EFTA outer core if the euro becomes a requirement of EU membership
    It already is a requirement. The only two countries with an opt out are the UK and Denmark. For political reasons, countries have been allowed to play silly sods with respect to ERM II, but they're all under a treaty obligation to join.
    Which none of them in reality will ever implement, Sweden and Denmark both voted against the Euro in referendums and most of Eastern Europe has no interest in joining the Eurozone either
    With the changes to QMV last May, and the simple fact that the EZ countries agree their position before any CoM meeting, I think the political dynamics will change. Without the UK, the EZ can outvote the others.
    If it came to a forced choice between the staying in the EU and joining the Euro or leaving and joining Norway in EFTA Sweden and Denmark would be likely to leave. Given a similar choice I would also expect Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic etc to leave the EU too
    I think we're collectively speculating in advance of any evidence. There are interesting times ahead for both the EU and the UK. I'm wary of making predictions, so all I can do is point at what little data there is out there.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    British luvvie Minnie Driver stepping down as Oxfam ambassador.

    The brand is pretty toxic.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983



    Talk to some young people.

    Brexit is the only political topic I have ever heard my 19 year old nephew and 16 year old niece mention. There is clearly a grievance there but whether they'll ever get off Rocket League and Snapchat respectively to do anything about it remains to be seen.
This discussion has been closed.