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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs appear to be returning to their former role as NOTA –

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  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,248

    DavidL said:

    Toms said:

    US gun sales falling. The Chump Trump slump?
    Better late than not at all I guess.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/13/remington-bankruptcy-guns-trump-slump-sales

    7.7m "super owners" have 140 guns apiece? Christ.
    you have misread the article.
    Nope:
    "But just 3% of the population owns an average of 17 guns each, with an estimated 7.7 million super-owners in possession of 140 guns apiece."

    That is what the article says. I am of course presuming it is a correct statement of fact. 140 guns would arm more than a company of men.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,988
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?
    :smile:
    Nah, Nick swings with the wind when it comes to the Labour Party. He was a loyalist Blair follower, and now he's a loyalist Corbyn follower. If Labour elected as leader the newly-revealed love-child of Thatcher and Farage, he'd follow that leader to the polls, lauding the policies. ;)
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?
    :smile:
    You know who else believes in Keynesian economics? Donald J Trump.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    edited February 2018

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?
    :smile:
    Nah, Nick swings with the wind when it comes to the Labour Party. He was a loyalist Blair follower, and now he's a loyalist Corbyn follower. If Labour elected as leader the newly-revealed love-child of Thatcher and Farage, he'd follow that leader to the polls, lauding the policies. ;)
    Well, there are of course some crucial differences between Blair and Corbyn.

    One went against parliamentary consensus to be elected, lied about his intentions over student fees, was in thrall to his more radical Treasury spokesman, sucked up to dodgy regimes abroad, repeatedly gave misleading figures to Parliament and came from a privileged background which he found embarrassing and spent much time hiding.

    And the other one has a beard.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,988
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?
    :smile:
    Nah, Nick swings with the wind when it comes to the Labour Party. He was a loyalist Blair follower, and now he's a loyalist Corbyn follower. If Labour elected as leader the newly-revealed love-child of Thatcher and Farage, he'd follow that leader to the polls, lauding the policies. ;)
    Well, there are of course some crucial differences between Blair and Corbyn.

    One went against parliamentary consensus to be elected, lied about his intentions over student fees, was in thrall to his more radical Treasury spokesman, sucked up to dodgy regimes abroad, repeatedly gave misleading figures to Parliament and came from a privileged background which he found embarrassing and spent much time hiding.

    And the other one has a beard.
    LOL! ;)
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,248

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    It was always just a matter of time Nick. Welcome to the dark side.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,892
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?
    :smile:
    Nah, Nick swings with the wind when it comes to the Labour Party. He was a loyalist Blair follower, and now he's a loyalist Corbyn follower. If Labour elected as leader the newly-revealed love-child of Thatcher and Farage, he'd follow that leader to the polls, lauding the policies. ;)
    Well, there are of course some crucial differences between Blair and Corbyn.

    One went against parliamentary consensus to be elected, lied about his intentions over student fees, was in thrall to his more radical Treasury spokesman, sucked up to dodgy regimes abroad, repeatedly gave misleading figures to Parliament and came from a privileged background which he found embarrassing and spent much time hiding.

    And the other one has a beard.
    Chapeau :D
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,558

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?
    :smile:
    You know who else believes in Keynesian economics? Donald J Trump.
    Increasing the deficit during the good times is hardly Keynesian; increasing military spending hardly qualifies, either.

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,248

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?
    :smile:
    You know who else believes in Keynesian economics? Donald J Trump.
    Donald J Trump believes most profoundly in Donald J Trump. He's always been good at spending other peoples' money and he will spend as many US tax dollars as it takes to get himself re-elected.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?
    :smile:
    You know who else believes in Keynesian economics? Donald J Trump.
    Donald J Trump believes most profoundly in Donald J Trump. He's always been good at spending other peoples' money and he will spend as many US tax dollars as it takes to get himself re-elected.
    After passing the GOP (not Trump) tax plan he is about to test Cheney's dictum: Ronald Reagan proved deficits don't matter.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,558
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?
    :smile:
    You know who else believes in Keynesian economics? Donald J Trump.
    Donald J Trump believes most profoundly in Donald J Trump. He's always been good at spending other peoples' money and he will spend as many US tax dollars as it takes to get himself re-elected.
    And it's unlikely that someone who refuses to read one page memos will have a passing familiarity with the General Theory...
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,248
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?
    :smile:
    You know who else believes in Keynesian economics? Donald J Trump.
    Donald J Trump believes most profoundly in Donald J Trump. He's always been good at spending other peoples' money and he will spend as many US tax dollars as it takes to get himself re-elected.
    And it's unlikely that someone who refuses to read one page memos will have a passing familiarity with the General Theory...
    Shame. Great book. Very easy to follow and available free online!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,248

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?
    :smile:
    You know who else believes in Keynesian economics? Donald J Trump.
    Donald J Trump believes most profoundly in Donald J Trump. He's always been good at spending other peoples' money and he will spend as many US tax dollars as it takes to get himself re-elected.
    After passing the GOP (not Trump) tax plan he is about to test Cheney's dictum: Ronald Reagan proved deficits don't matter.
    Maybe. It is possible that the repatriated money and the tax ingathered from that will hide any underlying deficit increase in the short term. The economy is also growing quite fast which should throw off a fair bit of additional tax revenues although he seems keen to spend it even faster.
  • Options
    Good morning, everyone.

    I'd just add that it's interesting to see a small but consistent decline in the Green vote. I imagine many (well, some, at least) Green voters are tempted by Corbyn's far leftiness.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    Good morning, everyone.

    I'd just add that it's interesting to see a small but consistent decline in the Green vote. I imagine many (well, some, at least) Green voters are tempted by Corbyn's far leftiness.

    They thoughtthey might be In contention in parts of Bristol but instead labour were untouchable, apparently due to Corbynism, although I don't know that thangam debbonaire is a Corbynite.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,891
    edited February 2018
    "What is striking is that in the former UKIP seats the biggest gainer has been the LDs vote increase which, on the face of it seems counter-intuitive."
    You can't assume that NOTA voters are consistent voters and cast their votes as a block.
    In council elections the turnout is usually low. What is quite likely is that non-committed UKIP voters and NOTA UKIP voters are no longer voting in council elections. Conversely, between 2010 and 2015 the LibDems lost the centre NOTA voters as they were suddenly "one of the above". After the Brexit vote there is more reason for the latter group to be returning to the polling booths.

    The actual number of voters who have voted LD-UKIP-LD is likely to be insignificant.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,892
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    One Nation Conservative.

    I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party". :)
    But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?
    :smile:
    You know who else believes in Keynesian economics? Donald J Trump.
    Donald J Trump believes most profoundly in Donald J Trump. He's always been good at spending other peoples' money and he will spend as many US tax dollars as it takes to get himself re-elected.
    After passing the GOP (not Trump) tax plan he is about to test Cheney's dictum: Ronald Reagan proved deficits don't matter.
    Maybe. It is possible that the repatriated money and the tax ingathered from that will hide any underlying deficit increase in the short term. The economy is also growing quite fast which should throw off a fair bit of additional tax revenues although he seems keen to spend it even faster.
    It’s certainly an interesting experiment in turbocharging an economy. Lots of simultaneous large changes, with the tax increases from the repatriated corporate funds, associated increases in activity, personal tax cuts and infrastructure spending increases.

    Will be worth seeing the cumulative impact of all these changes, but I think that Trump has a better chance of re-election than the current odds suggest. The extra spending is going into the swing states and they’re going to notice.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:

    New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
    https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

    Conservatives can’t want to Remain. That in a nutshell is how the Conservatives are excluding 48% of the population from supporting them.
    Conservatives accept that a majority voted to follow a different path. We respect the sovereignty of the people.
  • Options

    Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

    ' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

    The answers being:

    (1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

    or

    (2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

    And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

    Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

    A good reason for Boris to give more publicity to the free trade issue in his speech on Wednesday.
This discussion has been closed.