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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poll shows Leave voters would stay mostly solid even if Brexit

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  • HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Next up - how the Scots can still win at Culloden and the case for a second battle of Agincourt gains momentum on twitter.

    We lost the sequel to Agincourt.

    Patay was a disaster.

    How embarrassing is it to be at war with France for 100 years and still lose.

    In mitigation I suppose we were led by Frenchmen too.
    The English campaigns of the 1420s and the 1430s in France weren't unlike the strategic problem the British faced during the American Revolution: we were simply too small with too few men and resources to win in a country so large and populous.

    We had to win every single battle to stay on top. On the other hand, we only had to lose big one to lose the war.
    Or occupying a foreign land permanently can only really be done with the population's consent
    Or you wipe them out.

    The other alternative is you simply occupy by force for a very long time and, using a carrot and stick approach, build a level of support for it.

    A bit like the Roman Empire in Britannia.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Correct. This is not Boris going rogue, this is a keynote speech by the Foriegn Secrety, cleared in advance by No.10 and representing the view of the Government.
    Whoever cleared Boris to criticise Remainers wasn’t doing him any favours.
    The critism is of those who wish to prevent Brexit from happening, not of those who voted Remain. It’s also one line in an otherwise positive speech about the opportunities of Brexit.
    It's the only line anyone is hearing this morning.

    It means that the delusional nonsense will go unheard.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    Beyond slogans and soundbites she has no idea what her desired end state should be. That is the problem.
    Oh, she knows.

    She just believes in keeping it under her hat until she's ready.
    There was a chorus before Christmas saying we were doomed on Brexit, because we would never reach an acceptable financial settlement. Or else, we would have to pay the £100 billion the EU was demanding.

    They then looked very foolish. However, undaunted, they pipe up again.....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Roger Scruton has an interesting piece in Telegraph today. Mainly on Brexit and national interest, but also shreds Corbyn's Labour:


    "...the mainstream Labour Party, which is now built on the continental model, as a mass movement of protest, which will take power only to protest at itself. It will then bequeath the ruins to its successor."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/14/tories-will-win-electorate-showing-prepared-put-national-interest/

    Yes I've just bought a paper copy of the Telegraph in order to read his article.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited February 2018
    Mr Cole,

    You could be right, I was wise not to go into the comedy business.

    I live just outside Liverpool, perhaps Islington is a better reflection of modern Britain.

    PS Sarcasm, surely?
  • Dan Hannan, the man who has spent the last 19 months strenuously claiming that Brexit wasn't about immigration, starts off his slot on R4 this morning by saying thank goodness we can now talk about immigration.

    Twat.
  • Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    Beyond slogans and soundbites she has no idea what her desired end state should be. That is the problem.
    Oh, she knows.

    She just believes in keeping it under her hat until she's ready.
    There was a chorus before Christmas saying we were doomed on Brexit, because we would never reach an acceptable financial settlement. Or else, we would have to pay the £100 billion the EU was demanding.

    They then looked very foolish. However, undaunted, they pipe up again.....
    Since the UK government settled for twice what had been estimated in 2016 and as much as was giving Leavers aneurysms in September 2017, it wasn't the most compelling of negotiating triumphs.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,743


    Oh, she knows.

    She just believes in keeping it under her hat until she's ready.

    A lot of that is politics of course. It keeps both the detractors within your own Party and the Opposition off balance if they don't know where you stand (even if they do agree about what you're standing in).

    May's weakness for me has been her desire to be inclusive. From the time she became Prime Minister until last June, the whole tone of her leadership was unifying and inclusive. "Trust me" was her motto - she was everybody's friend, she was everybody's ally. She supported everyone.

    The GE revealed the internal contradictions of that all-encompassing inclusivity. A lot of people didn't want to join her in the "Big Tent" and instead tried to pull it down.

    Since June, she has played the brinkmanship card whenever possible, with Ireland as a good example but bluff too often and eventually your bluff will be called and if you don't have a winning hand that will be it.

    There will come a point when she will have to stand up and declare what her vision of the UK's future economic relationship with the EU looks like and the impact of changes on immigration and a host of other areas. She knows at that point the Big Tent will fracture because you can only please all of the people some of the time.

    I agree with HYUFD the litmus test will be immigration policy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Correct. This is not Boris going rogue, this is a keynote speech by the Foriegn Secrety, cleared in advance by No.10 and representing the view of the Government.
    Whoever cleared Boris to criticise Remainers wasn’t doing him any favours.
    The critism is of those who wish to prevent Brexit from happening, not of those who voted Remain. It’s also one line in an otherwise positive speech about the opportunities of Brexit.
    It's the only line anyone is hearing this morning.

    It means that the delusional nonsense will go unheard.
    Most of his audience will have better hearing than you....
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    I love how questioning the result of a referendum that massively changed constitutional change on a 52/48 vote is ignoring democracy that uses project fear; but 30 years of Mail, Sun and Express making up stuff about the EU is just fine. Did those who didn't like the EEC referendum (won on 67% not 52%) hide away to "accept democracy"? Or did they organise, mobalise and change hearts and minds? Is democracy not a living thing that changes due to the real world, not a dead thing where once a decision is made it stays made forever, with no one changing it ever again?

    I think if we leave we will likely rejoin in my lifetime (I'm under 30) because the generation gap is SO wide that in 10/15 years time just too many of the older leave vote would have died, and young people will likely continue to view the EU positively because of the fringe issues (like freedom of movement and the internet meaning someone living in London can have more in common with someone in Paris and Berlin than Stoke or Cornwall). Intergration of nation states in some form or other looks inevitable (bar large scale war) because both sides want it; globalism benefits corporations and makes money but also breaks down social barriers between people and increases empathy / understanding in ways not possible in the past.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Correct. This is not Boris going rogue, this is a keynote speech by the Foriegn Secrety, cleared in advance by No.10 and representing the view of the Government.
    Whoever cleared Boris to criticise Remainers wasn’t doing him any favours.
    The critism is of those who wish to prevent Brexit from happening, not of those who voted Remain. It’s also one line in an otherwise positive speech about the opportunities of Brexit.
    It's the only line anyone is hearing this morning.

    It means that the delusional nonsense will go unheard.
    It's the only line you're hearing / wanting to hear.

    The BBC headline starts by saying he will say the vote is a cause for hope, not fear, and that Remainers belief in European solidarity is based on noble sentiments. He also says it's not good enough for Leavers to say "you lost, get over it".

    I'd recommend waiting for the speech on the "liberal case" first, before drawing conclusions.

    Where I would agree is that I'm not sure Boris is the best person to make the case; there's a lot of water under the bridge now, and it might have been better coming from someone like Amber Rudd.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Further evidence that Brexit was a heart-over-head decision. To quote Vinnie Jones 'it was emotional'. Not one single emotion, of course, but a range of them. Distaste for foreigners was (sadly) very much in the mix and I am surprised that that question is not included in this poll. Would you change your mind about Brexit if it led to a large INCREASE in immigration to the UK? I would predict that far more than 14% of Leavers would answer yes to that one. It would beat the NHS hands down. Such an outcome is extremely unlikely, I know, and Leavers probably understood that well enough, therefore this much heard 'they didn't know what they were voting for' sentiment is IMO nonsense. Veni vidi vici - they did, they acted accordingly, they won.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    Beyond slogans and soundbites she has no idea what her desired end state should be. That is the problem.
    Oh, she knows.

    She just believes in keeping it under her hat until she's ready.
    I wish I could believe that. But I don’t.

    Still, I was wrong about the referendum result and wrong about what would happen therefter. So what do I know.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Correct. This is not Boris going rogue, this is a keynote speech by the Foriegn Secrety, cleared in advance by No.10 and representing the view of the Government.
    Whoever cleared Boris to criticise Remainers wasn’t doing him any favours.
    The critism is of those who wish to prevent Brexit from happening, not of those who voted Remain. It’s also one line in an otherwise positive speech about the opportunities of Brexit.
    It's the only line anyone is hearing this morning.

    It means that the delusional nonsense will go unheard.
    Most of his audience will have better hearing than you....
    How that Remain bastion the Telegraph reported it:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/963548954016272385
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    Beyond slogans and soundbites she has no idea what her desired end state should be. That is the problem.
    Oh, she knows.

    She just believes in keeping it under her hat until she's ready.
    I wish I could believe that. But I don’t.

    Still, I was wrong about the referendum result and wrong about what would happen therefter. So what do I know.
    I think she's known for some time. She is just trying to see what's politically sellable in the Cabinet and within the Parliamentary coalition she has.

    Then she goes to ground again to re-work it.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Dan Hannan, the man who has spent the last 19 months strenuously claiming that Brexit wasn't about immigration, starts off his slot on R4 this morning by saying thank goodness we can now talk about immigration.

    Twat.

    Absolutely nobody is saying Daniel Hannan is a stupid person's idea of what an intelligent person is.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    Beyond slogans and soundbites she has no idea what her desired end state should be. That is the problem.
    Oh, she knows.

    She just believes in keeping it under her hat until she's ready.
    There was a chorus before Christmas saying we were doomed on Brexit, because we would never reach an acceptable financial settlement. Or else, we would have to pay the £100 billion the EU was demanding.

    They then looked very foolish. However, undaunted, they pipe up again.....
    https://twitter.com/StefanieBolzen/status/963406271524343808
  • Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    Beyond slogans and soundbites she has no idea what her desired end state should be. That is the problem.
    Oh, she knows.

    She just believes in keeping it under her hat until she's ready.
    There was a chorus before Christmas saying we were doomed on Brexit, because we would never reach an acceptable financial settlement. Or else, we would have to pay the £100 billion the EU was demanding.

    They then looked very foolish. However, undaunted, they pipe up again.....
    Very few people understand the divorce bill.

    In reality, it's pretty much keeping our payments "as is" until the end of the current EU budget period, and then a long tail of c.£1bn per year for 20+ years to deal with pension and salary liabilities, some of which are contingent on events.

    There's no big divorce "payment" upfront.
  • AndyJS said:

    Roger Scruton has an interesting piece in Telegraph today. Mainly on Brexit and national interest, but also shreds Corbyn's Labour:


    "...the mainstream Labour Party, which is now built on the continental model, as a mass movement of protest, which will take power only to protest at itself. It will then bequeath the ruins to its successor."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/14/tories-will-win-electorate-showing-prepared-put-national-interest/

    Yes I've just bought a paper copy of the Telegraph in order to read his article.
    I still have my Telegraph subscription from the days when plato would festoon pb with links to Telegraph articles, many of which I suspect she'd not actually read.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    So two years later, why would voters change their mind? Still no-one has made the positive case. Still Remainers rely on the failed project fear messages. Sometimes I think politicians know damn all about politics.

    Bollocks

    The Leave message was "Lose nothing, gain loads", neither of which is true.

    The Remain message was "You will lose things you already take for granted, for little gain"

    The DecrepitJohnL lesson in politics seems to be "Lie like a Mutherfucker if you want to win"
    Project Fib versus Project Fact and Project Fib won?
    Project Fear not fact -- unless we missed the emergency budget and outbreak of world war 3 or even a minor scuffle over Schleswig-Holstein that David Cameron warned about.
    You just made that up huh?
    I did not vote Leave, still less campaign for it. But I'm right about the failure of the Remain campaign's negativity.
    Indeed you are. But Scott's point was that lies won out over truth. The truth and negativity aren't incompatible. Remain's failure was ultimately its inability to expose those lies. The problem now is those lies will bite us.
    The problem now is the Remain side is still not making a positive case for the EU. It is doubling down on a failed strategy.
    There is no positive case for the EU other than "well we're a bit tangled up in this so its probably less hassle to resist being sucked into the giant squids mouth - save your energy and enjoy being devoured.."
  • Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    Beyond slogans and soundbites she has no idea what her desired end state should be. That is the problem.
    Oh, she knows.

    She just believes in keeping it under her hat until she's ready.
    There was a chorus before Christmas saying we were doomed on Brexit, because we would never reach an acceptable financial settlement. Or else, we would have to pay the £100 billion the EU was demanding.

    They then looked very foolish. However, undaunted, they pipe up again.....
    https://twitter.com/StefanieBolzen/status/963406271524343808
    What's the point in the article?

    As far as I'm aware the only discount was about the time value of money.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    edited February 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Correct. This is not Boris going rogue, this is a keynote speech by the Foriegn Secrety, cleared in advance by No.10 and representing the view of the Government.
    I'm sure you're right, and it's churlish to be cynical. (Though we'll know for certain if No. 10 is forced to play its 'that was just Boris being Boris' card when asked about one of its contentious points.) But does this then explain the change of tone? Paul Dacre is one of Theresa's last dependable allies. Perhaps Boris was going to sound conciliatory, but Theresa knew Dacre wouldn't want to hear that, so ordered Boris to Remoaner bash instead.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2018
    148grss said:

    I love how questioning the result of a referendum that massively changed constitutional change on a 52/48 vote is ignoring democracy that uses project fear; but 30 years of Mail, Sun and Express making up stuff about the EU is just fine. Did those who didn't like the EEC referendum (won on 67% not 52%) hide away to "accept democracy"? Or did they organise, mobalise and change hearts and minds? Is democracy not a living thing that changes due to the real world, not a dead thing where once a decision is made it stays made forever, with no one changing it ever again?

    I think if we leave we will likely rejoin in my lifetime (I'm under 30) because the generation gap is SO wide that in 10/15 years time just too many of the older leave vote would have died, and young people will likely continue to view the EU positively because of the fringe issues (like freedom of movement and the internet meaning someone living in London can have more in common with someone in Paris and Berlin than Stoke or Cornwall). Intergration of nation states in some form or other looks inevitable (bar large scale war) because both sides want it; globalism benefits corporations and makes money but also breaks down social barriers between people and increases empathy / understanding in ways not possible in the past.

    In the 1970s some people argued that the Tories wouldn't be able to win elections 20 or 30 years later because they were in third position behind the Liberals with young voters at the October 1974 election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    And a rather more than trivial chance of their voting against.

    The only time May had shown any propensity whatever to gamble was when the odds were massively in her favour - and she got severely burned at the subsequent general election. Expect the procrastination to continue.
    Has Theresa had any political successes throughout her entire career? Perhaps early on when the kitten heels and 'the nasty party' remark landed her some good press. (But she probably got lucky there: she was merely pointing out a favourite taunt of the Tories' enemies rather than, as was reported, making a bold and frank assessment of there failings.) Other than that I can't think of much.
    Well she has already made more progress in her negotiations with the EU than Cameron managed in his
    Really?
    She is through Phase 1 of the talks and onto FTA talks while ending free movement, it was Cameron's failure to get any concessions on free movement from the EU, even just to reflect the transition controls we could have had but Blair did not use, which got Leave over 50%
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Sandpit said:

    Correct. This is not Boris going rogue, this is a keynote speech by the Foriegn Secrety, cleared in advance by No.10 and representing the view of the Government.
    I'm sure you're right, and it's churlish to be cynical. (Though we'll know for certain if No. 10 is forced to play its 'that was just Boris being Boris' card when asked about one of its contentious points.) But does this then explain the change of tone? Paul Dacre is one of Theresa's last dependable allies. Perhaps Boris was going to sound conciliatory, but Theresa knew Dacre wouldn't want to hear that, so ordered Boris to Remoaner bash instead.
    Unfortunately there is a large strand of media now that would report Boris having a cup of coffee as a putsch to take over the leadership.


    Guido seems to be hyping up a soon to be breaking story..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited February 2018

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Next up - how the Scots can still win at Culloden and the case for a second battle of Agincourt gains momentum on twitter.

    We lost the sequel to Agincourt.

    Patay was a disaster.

    How embarrassing is it to be at war with France for 100 years and still lose.

    In mitigation I suppose we were led by Frenchmen too.
    The English campaigns of the 1420s and the 1430s in France weren't unlike the strategic problem the British faced during the American Revolution: we were simply too small with too few men and resources to win in a country so large and populous.

    We had to win every single battle to stay on top. On the other hand, we only had to lose big one to lose the war.
    Or occupying a foreign land permanently can only really be done with the population's consent
    Or you wipe them out.

    The other alternative is you simply occupy by force for a very long time and, using a carrot and stick approach, build a level of support for it.

    A bit like the Roman Empire in Britannia.
    Even the Roman Empire had to leave Britain eventually as barbarian forces gradually closed in on it from the outer reaches of the Empire. Short of mass genocide in North America (arguably against the native American indians) most of the colonists rebelling were from the British isles but it was imposing taxation on them without representation and consent which led to the War of Independence
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    I think Remoaners are absolutely terrified that if they cant stop the democratic will of the People on the EU in then next year, that Brexit will be a success.

    It makes them wake up in a soaking cold sweat..........................
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited February 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    This is the real danger for Leavebollah. If they don't make Brexit appealing to the younger generations (fuck knows how) then it's not going to endure.

    Technological progress has done much to reduce cultural and national differences. Young people see this more than most of us and wonder what the utility of Brexit is.

    I think this assumption is based on the average person noticing a difference in their relationship with other parts of Europe.

    For the average person that is stag weekends, holidays and not much else, for which there will be little discernible difference.

    Assuming there is no massive UK centric economic collapse, the average person (young or old) will be blissfully unaware of differences for 99% of their daily time and total lives.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    philiph said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This is the real danger for Leavebollah. If they don't make Brexit appealing to the younger generations (fuck knows how) then it's not going to endure.

    Technological progress has done much to reduce cultural and national differences. Young people see this more than most of us and wonder what the utility of Brexit is.

    I think this assumption is based on the average person noticing a difference in their relationship with other parts of Europe.

    For the average person that is stag weekends, holidays and not much else, for which there will be little discernible difference.

    Assuming there is no massive UK centric economic collapse, the average person (young or old) will be blissfully unaware of differences of 99% of their time and lives.
    By this logic then given 80% percent of young people worship Jezza, in 50 years time Labour will be on 80% in the polls ?

    Thankfully the young grow up - some take longer than others mind you.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    148grss said:

    I love how questioning the result of a referendum that massively changed constitutional change on a 52/48 vote is ignoring democracy that uses project fear; but 30 years of Mail, Sun and Express making up stuff about the EU is just fine. Did those who didn't like the EEC referendum (won on 67% not 52%) hide away to "accept democracy"? Or did they organise, mobalise and change hearts and minds? Is democracy not a living thing that changes due to the real world, not a dead thing where once a decision is made it stays made forever, with no one changing it ever again?

    I think if we leave we will likely rejoin in my lifetime (I'm under 30) because the generation gap is SO wide that in 10/15 years time just too many of the older leave vote would have died, and young people will likely continue to view the EU positively because of the fringe issues (like freedom of movement and the internet meaning someone living in London can have more in common with someone in Paris and Berlin than Stoke or Cornwall). Intergration of nation states in some form or other looks inevitable (bar large scale war) because both sides want it; globalism benefits corporations and makes money but also breaks down social barriers between people and increases empathy / understanding in ways not possible in the past.

    Predictions are so difficult to make, though, especially about the future. In 15 years time integration of nation states may well have advanced to a stage where the EU looks about as modern and fit for purpose as ceefax looks now from the internet age. Assume robotics and 3d printing progress by leaps and bounds; how far are we from the situation where a car or a washing machine is made from the ground up in the country it is to be sold in? That abolishes all this shit about supply chains and just in time stock keeping and stuff, and exports/imports dwindle to nothing but bulk commodities. What then is the EU for?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    philiph said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This is the real danger for Leavebollah. If they don't make Brexit appealing to the younger generations (fuck knows how) then it's not going to endure.

    Technological progress has done much to reduce cultural and national differences. Young people see this more than most of us and wonder what the utility of Brexit is.

    I think this assumption is based on the average person noticing a difference in their relationship with other parts of Europe.

    For the average person that is stag weekends, holidays and not much else, for which there will be little discernible difference.

    Assuming there is no massive UK centric economic collapse, the average person (young or old) will be blissfully unaware of differences for 99% of their daily time and total lives.
    If there are massive queues to get your passport (whatever colour) checked at Marbella airport after Brexit the most likely outcome is that British holiday makers will head to Cornwall or Florida the following year rather than flock to the Lib Dems and campaign for rejoining the EU.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This is the real danger for Leavebollah. If they don't make Brexit appealing to the younger generations (fuck knows how) then it's not going to endure.

    Technological progress has done much to reduce cultural and national differences. Young people see this more than most of us and wonder what the utility of Brexit is.

    I think this assumption is based on the average person noticing a difference in their relationship with other parts of Europe.

    For the average person that is stag weekends, holidays and not much else, for which there will be little discernible difference.

    Assuming there is no massive UK centric economic collapse, the average person (young or old) will be blissfully unaware of differences of 99% of their time and lives.
    By this logic then given 80% percent of young people worship Jezza, in 50 years time Labour will be on 80% in the polls ?

    Thankfully the young grow up - some take longer than others mind you.
    No, just that they will find it makes no difference to most peoples lives, and so is not a totemic issue.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Social Media Is Making Us Dumber. Here’s Exhibit A."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/11/opinion/social-media-dumber-steven-pinker.html
  • stevef said:

    I think Remoaners are absolutely terrified that if they cant stop the democratic will of the People on the EU in then next year, that Brexit will be a success.

    It makes them wake up in a soaking cold sweat..........................


    Since leavers are only able to describe a 'successful' Brexit in the most diaphanous terms, you're not really giving much for Remoaners to work with.

    Mind you, innovative jams did provide a few sleepless nights.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    TGOHF said:
    what utter bollocks , how many listen by radio or watch later. Does the clown not realise how many people are at work and don't get to watch TV.
    How many watch PM joke live.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    philiph said:

    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    This is the real danger for Leavebollah. If they don't make Brexit appealing to the younger generations (fuck knows how) then it's not going to endure.

    Technological progress has done much to reduce cultural and national differences. Young people see this more than most of us and wonder what the utility of Brexit is.

    I think this assumption is based on the average person noticing a difference in their relationship with other parts of Europe.

    For the average person that is stag weekends, holidays and not much else, for which there will be little discernible difference.

    Assuming there is no massive UK centric economic collapse, the average person (young or old) will be blissfully unaware of differences of 99% of their time and lives.
    By this logic then given 80% percent of young people worship Jezza, in 50 years time Labour will be on 80% in the polls ?

    Thankfully the young grow up - some take longer than others mind you.
    No, just that they will find it makes no difference to most peoples lives, and so is not a totemic issue.
    The pernicious thing about relative decline is that most people don't notice it happening, but that's hardly an argument in favour of it.
  • malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:
    what utter bollocks , how many listen by radio or watch later. Does the clown not realise how many people are at work and don't get to watch TV.
    How many watch PM joke live.
    A fair point Malcolm. But do you think that FMQs, or indeed PMQs, shape public perceptions? I can see they might in aggregate - but not one line here or there. Those lines are, I think much more important to MSPs/MPs who are listening much more carefully.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Remainers have constantly misread the situation - and underestimated Brexiteers. It’s quite comical.

    In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”

    The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”

    LOL, fantasy of the century.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    AndyJS said:

    148grss said:

    I love how questioning the result of a referendum that massively changed constitutional change on a 52/48 vote is ignoring democracy that uses project fear; but 30 years of Mail, Sun and Express making up stuff about the EU is just fine. Did those who didn't like the EEC referendum (won on 67% not 52%) hide away to "accept democracy"? Or did they organise, mobalise and change hearts and minds? Is democracy not a living thing that changes due to the real world, not a dead thing where once a decision is made it stays made forever, with no one changing it ever again?

    I think if we leave we will likely rejoin in my lifetime (I'm under 30) because the generation gap is SO wide that in 10/15 years time just too many of the older leave vote would have died, and young people will likely continue to view the EU positively because of the fringe issues (like freedom of movement and the internet meaning someone living in London can have more in common with someone in Paris and Berlin than Stoke or Cornwall). Intergration of nation states in some form or other looks inevitable (bar large scale war) because both sides want it; globalism benefits corporations and makes money but also breaks down social barriers between people and increases empathy / understanding in ways not possible in the past.

    In the 1970s some people argued that the Tories wouldn't be able to win elections 20 or 30 years later because they were in third position behind the Liberals with young voters at the October 1974 election.
    In the 70s the Conservatives were a mass party and had more direct members than the Labour Party. There were actual young Conservatives that you would see out canvassing. Nowadays they seem to me to be non-existent amongst the under 40s.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alexgallagher2: @Andrew_Adonis currently skewering John Redwood on #VictoriaLIVE @BBCNews . It transpires Redwood wanted a second referendum. First he denies then says it was different then, when confronted with actual words, waffles desperately.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:
    what utter bollocks , how many listen by radio or watch later. Does the clown not realise how many people are at work and don't get to watch TV.
    How many watch PM joke live.
    How does FMQ compare with PMQ's in terms of % of population that watch ? I genuinely don't know..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    malcolmg said:

    Remainers have constantly misread the situation - and underestimated Brexiteers. It’s quite comical.

    In ten years time, the question in London won’t be “should we rejoin the EU?”

    The question in Paris and Berlin will be “should we join the UK’s Economic Commonwealth?”

    LOL, fantasy of the century.
    It made the Glorious Leader choke on his cornflakes though. Not just Remainers who can do click bait. ;-)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    Beyond slogans and soundbites she has no idea what her desired end state should be. That is the problem.
    Oh, she knows.

    She just believes in keeping it under her hat until she's ready.
    There was a chorus before Christmas saying we were doomed on Brexit, because we would never reach an acceptable financial settlement. Or else, we would have to pay the £100 billion the EU was demanding.

    They then looked very foolish. However, undaunted, they pipe up again.....
    I think you will find it went like this:
    EU we want 50 Billion
    UK we will pay nothing
    EU we want 100 Billion
    UK OK we will offer 50 Billion , no way we are paying 100 Billion
    EU, Ha Ha Ha , it is a deal
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    AndyJS said:

    148grss said:

    I love how questioning the result of a referendum that massively changed constitutional change on a 52/48 vote is ignoring democracy that uses project fear; but 30 years of Mail, Sun and Express making up stuff about the EU is just fine. Did those who didn't like the EEC referendum (won on 67% not 52%) hide away to "accept democracy"? Or did they organise, mobalise and change hearts and minds? Is democracy not a living thing that changes due to the real world, not a dead thing where once a decision is made it stays made forever, with no one changing it ever again?

    I think if we leave we will likely rejoin in my lifetime (I'm under 30) because the generation gap is SO wide that in 10/15 years time just too many of the older leave vote would have died, and young people will likely continue to view the EU positively because of the fringe issues (like freedom of movement and the internet meaning someone living in London can have more in common with someone in Paris and Berlin than Stoke or Cornwall). Intergration of nation states in some form or other looks inevitable (bar large scale war) because both sides want it; globalism benefits corporations and makes money but also breaks down social barriers between people and increases empathy / understanding in ways not possible in the past.

    In the 1970s some people argued that the Tories wouldn't be able to win elections 20 or 30 years later because they were in third position behind the Liberals with young voters at the October 1974 election.
    In the 70s the Conservatives were a mass party and had more direct members than the Labour Party. There were actual young Conservatives that you would see out canvassing. Nowadays they seem to me to be non-existent amongst the under 40s.
    We still have a Conservative Prime Minister though, last time I checked. We have obviously mastered the art of doing more with less....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Scott_P said:

    @alexgallagher2: @Andrew_Adonis currently skewering John Redwood on #VictoriaLIVE @BBCNews . It transpires Redwood wanted a second referendum. First he denies then says it was different then, when confronted with actual words, waffles desperately.

    Don't tell me, the same second referendum that JRM called for in 2011? The one where first we'd have a referendum on whether Cameron should go to Brussels to renegotiate our membership, and then a second referendum to decide if we like'd what Cameron had got?

    That second referendum?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alexgallagher2: @Andrew_Adonis currently skewering John Redwood on #VictoriaLIVE @BBCNews . It transpires Redwood wanted a second referendum. First he denies then says it was different then, when confronted with actual words, waffles desperately.

    Don't tell me, the same second referendum that JRM called for in 2011? The one where first we'd have a referendum on whether Cameron should go to Brussels to renegotiate our membership, and then a second referendum to decide if we like'd what Cameron had got?

    That second referendum?
    David Davis said we should have a double referendum back in 2005.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alexgallagher2: @Andrew_Adonis currently skewering John Redwood on #VictoriaLIVE @BBCNews . It transpires Redwood wanted a second referendum. First he denies then says it was different then, when confronted with actual words, waffles desperately.

    Don't tell me, the same second referendum that JRM called for in 2011? The one where first we'd have a referendum on whether Cameron should go to Brussels to renegotiate our membership, and then a second referendum to decide if we like'd what Cameron had got?

    That second referendum?
    David Davis said we should have a double referendum back in 2005.
    Not much point in a second referendum if you remainers don't have any good ideas on how to win it.

  • Mr. Glenn, such arguments from those pro-EU would have more moral weight if they'd been made before polling day, when they thought they were going to win...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Mr. Glenn, such arguments from those pro-EU would have more moral weight if they'd been made before polling day, when they thought they were going to win...

    The pro-EU side wasn't represented in the referendum. Cameron just proved that being lukewarm on the EU isn't sustainable.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:
    what utter bollocks , how many listen by radio or watch later. Does the clown not realise how many people are at work and don't get to watch TV.
    How many watch PM joke live.
    A fair point Malcolm. But do you think that FMQs, or indeed PMQs, shape public perceptions? I can see they might in aggregate - but not one line here or there. Those lines are, I think much more important to MSPs/MPs who are listening much more carefully.
    Unfortunately neither are seen by many or we would perhaps have better governments. If more people so how poor the debate was and the sheer and utter uselessness of many of the participants we would perhaps get a few more intelligent politicians. FM's questions is really good for a laugh , watching the opposition parties following a script after being mauled in their first question is unbelievable, none of them seem to have the capacity to change tack when they get mauled but just keep leading with their chins and ask same again. It is pathetic. I would not be sure a lot of them could tie shoelaces.
  • Mr. Glenn, the campaign wasn't closed off. If those who are pro-EU didn't make the case, that's on them.
  • Mr. Glenn, such arguments from those pro-EU would have more moral weight if they'd been made before polling day, when they thought they were going to win...

    The pro-EU side wasn't represented in the referendum. Cameron just proved that being lukewarm on the EU isn't sustainable.
    Lead with your poster boys Adonis, Mandelson & Blair - victory nailed on!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Morning PB - I see FFR (Forces For Remain) are in a tizzy over Boris this morning! :D
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:
    what utter bollocks , how many listen by radio or watch later. Does the clown not realise how many people are at work and don't get to watch TV.
    How many watch PM joke live.
    A fair point Malcolm. But do you think that FMQs, or indeed PMQs, shape public perceptions? I can see they might in aggregate - but not one line here or there. Those lines are, I think much more important to MSPs/MPs who are listening much more carefully.
    Unfortunately neither are seen by many or we would perhaps have better governments.
    This is an excellent point - watch the news whether north or south of the border and the time given over to "experts" dissecting the events of the day swamps actual footage of elected representatives speaking in parliament.

    It's not a good experience.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Mr. Glenn, such arguments from those pro-EU would have more moral weight if they'd been made before polling day, when they thought they were going to win...

    The pro-EU side wasn't represented in the referendum. Cameron just proved that being lukewarm on the EU isn't sustainable.
    Nah. Cameron proved that people can't take yes for an answer.
  • Boris will create a tsunami of protest from remainers but he is not talking to the fanatics but is addressing the voters more generally and if he comes over full of optimism and acts as a rallying call he will have made a huge contribution to Brexit, enabled TM to build on the optimism, and no doubt enhanced his leadership chances.

    And I say this as someone who is not a Boris fan

    This forum is highly politically engaged and does not reflect public opinion in many ways

    And just to say another impressive speach from Penny Mordaunt - one to watch
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Glenn, such arguments from those pro-EU would have more moral weight if they'd been made before polling day, when they thought they were going to win...

    The pro-EU side wasn't represented in the referendum.
    william - Who would be front and centre of a EU Ref II campaign for Remain ?
  • Mr. Glenn, such arguments from those pro-EU would have more moral weight if they'd been made before polling day, when they thought they were going to win...

    The pro-EU side wasn't represented in the referendum. Cameron just proved that being lukewarm on the EU isn't sustainable.
    Lead with your poster boys Adonis, Mandelson & Blair - victory nailed on!
    You forgot Campbell.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    CD13 said:

    Mr Cole,

    You could be right, I was wise not to go into the comedy business.

    I live just outside Liverpool, perhaps Islington is a better reflection of modern Britain.

    PS Sarcasm, surely?

    Correction noted. You're probably right.

    I have no idea what people in Islington think. Nor have I means of finding out. I do though have relations scattered between Preston and Liverpool.
    North Essex, where I live, like Suffolk 'does different'.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Glenn, such arguments from those pro-EU would have more moral weight if they'd been made before polling day, when they thought they were going to win...

    The pro-EU side wasn't represented in the referendum.
    william - Who would be front and centre of a EU Ref II campaign for Remain ?
    Femi
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dura_Ace said:

    This is the real danger for Leavebollah. If they don't make Brexit appealing to the younger generations (fuck knows how) then it's not going to endure.

    Technological progress has done much to reduce cultural and national differences. Young people see this more than most of us and wonder what the utility of Brexit is.

    But you can view that in the opposite way: people don't need to belong to the EU in order to exchange messages and talk to people in other European countries and all around the globe. They can do that anyway.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    AndyJS said:

    148grss said:

    I love how questioning the result of a referendum that massively changed constitutional change on a 52/48 vote is ignoring democracy that uses project fear; but 30 years of Mail, Sun and Express making up stuff about the EU is just fine. Did those who didn't like the EEC referendum (won on 67% not 52%) hide away to "accept democracy"? Or did they organise, mobalise and change hearts and minds? Is democracy not a living thing that changes due to the real world, not a dead thing where once a decision is made it stays made forever, with no one changing it ever again?

    I think if we leave we will likely rejoin in my lifetime (I'm under 30) because the generation gap is SO wide that in 10/15 years time just too many of the older leave vote would have died, and young people will likely continue to view the EU positively because of the fringe issues (like freedom of movement and the internet meaning someone living in London can have more in common with someone in Paris and Berlin than Stoke or Cornwall). Intergration of nation states in some form or other looks inevitable (bar large scale war) because both sides want it; globalism benefits corporations and makes money but also breaks down social barriers between people and increases empathy / understanding in ways not possible in the past.

    In the 1970s some people argued that the Tories wouldn't be able to win elections 20 or 30 years later because they were in third position behind the Liberals with young voters at the October 1974 election.
    The difference is that the attitudes of the young have been shaped by the EU freedoms in a world of cheap air travel and internet communications; things that weren't available to older people when they were young, and providing perspectives that won't drop away as they get older. Just as the attitudes of older people have been shaped by having lived through events that the young only see in films as entertainment.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    edited February 2018

    Mr. Glenn, such arguments from those pro-EU would have more moral weight if they'd been made before polling day, when they thought they were going to win...

    The pro-EU side wasn't represented in the referendum. Cameron just proved that being lukewarm on the EU isn't sustainable.
    I'd agree with that. I'm as passionate a Remainer as anyone else; to my shame I ducked out of the EU referendum campaign as I was so turned off by the Remain campaign, only being shaken to my senses by the murder of Jo Cox. However the referendum was already lost by then.

    The Remain side have a powerful argument but seem unable to sell it. My advice in any future campaign would be to make the case for rejoining. Sell the EU for what it is at its best; a partnership of nations that has become a global superpower, where we've saved billions by pooling regulation costs, where we've hosted world-leading organisations, which has kept the peace in Europe like never before, and which has the weight to secure global trade deals as none of its members can on their own. The slogan: Together not Alone. Full of examples of EU achievements.

    The papers aren't going to talk up the EU's successes, but bizarre that the Remain campaign shied away from them as well. Education on what the EU does well is far more likely to shift minds (and hearts with the right examples) than predictions of GDP losses, or trying to blacken the name of every Brexiteer on issues nothing to do with Brexit. They also need to be smarter about the 'give the Government a kick' angle Labour Leave used so well - surely they could have got people to think about what would happen if Cameron was deposed, project reality in the weeks after the vote.

    I'm with those predicting a serious rejoin campaign unless the deal is amazingly good. We are just too entrenched, and the numbers are there in the 18-30s that if the next generation feel the same way, we're 15 years away from hundreds of MPs in this group and a majority in the country. Then it's all about whether the EU is in a state to justify rejoining. I would put money on it at decent odds.
  • Boris live on Sky and BBC
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    AndyJS said:

    148grss said:

    I love how questioning the result of a referendum that massively changed constitutional change on a 52/48 vote is ignoring democracy that uses project fear; but 30 years of Mail, Sun and Express making up stuff about the EU is just fine. Did those who didn't like the EEC referendum (won on 67% not 52%) hide away to "accept democracy"? Or did they organise, mobalise and change hearts and minds? Is democracy not a living thing that changes due to the real world, not a dead thing where once a decision is made it stays made forever, with no one changing it ever again?

    I think if we leave we will likely rejoin in my lifetime (I'm under 30) because the generation gap is SO wide that in 10/15 years time just too many of the older leave vote would have died, and young people will likely continue to view the EU positively because of the fringe issues (like freedom of movement and the internet meaning someone living in London can have more in common with someone in Paris and Berlin than Stoke or Cornwall). Intergration of nation states in some form or other looks inevitable (bar large scale war) because both sides want it; globalism benefits corporations and makes money but also breaks down social barriers between people and increases empathy / understanding in ways not possible in the past.

    In the 1970s some people argued that the Tories wouldn't be able to win elections 20 or 30 years later because they were in third position behind the Liberals with young voters at the October 1974 election.
    In the 70s the Conservatives were a mass party and had more direct members than the Labour Party. There were actual young Conservatives that you would see out canvassing. Nowadays they seem to me to be non-existent amongst the under 40s.
    LibDem membership almost certainly overtook Tory membership last year, noting that all the parties are cagey about releasing the exact figures.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Glenn, such arguments from those pro-EU would have more moral weight if they'd been made before polling day, when they thought they were going to win...

    The pro-EU side wasn't represented in the referendum.
    william - Who would be front and centre of a EU Ref II campaign for Remain ?
    Femi
    He's outstanding. Many political careers will be inspired by opposition to Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/963668404119982080
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Morning all.

    I'd join in, but I'm giving up Brexit for Lent.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Glenn, such arguments from those pro-EU would have more moral weight if they'd been made before polling day, when they thought they were going to win...

    The pro-EU side wasn't represented in the referendum.
    william - Who would be front and centre of a EU Ref II campaign for Remain ?
    If I can answer on his behalf, Jeremy Clarkson would be my first choice.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Thought for the day:

    Theresa May will soon be setting out her desired end state with the EU in more detail. Surely she would strengthen her hand by having the House of Commons vote on a resolution to support or reject her stance before the next set of negotiations begin, rather than waiting until October?

    It will be harder for MPs to vote against if they have already voted in favour.

    Beyond slogans and soundbites she has no idea what her desired end state should be. That is the problem.
    Oh, she knows.

    She just believes in keeping it under her hat until she's ready.
    There was a chorus before Christmas saying we were doomed on Brexit, because we would never reach an acceptable financial settlement. Or else, we would have to pay the £100 billion the EU was demanding.

    They then looked very foolish. However, undaunted, they pipe up again.....
    https://twitter.com/StefanieBolzen/status/963406271524343808
    What's the point in the article?

    As far as I'm aware the only discount was about the time value of money.
    Part of the massaging is to pay a chunk of money in advance of leaving, so it won't be counted as an exit payment. I think about €10 billion. The EU people have been tactful about the exit fee"negotiations"' so far and allowed the UK government spin to prevail.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Glenn, such arguments from those pro-EU would have more moral weight if they'd been made before polling day, when they thought they were going to win...

    The pro-EU side wasn't represented in the referendum.
    william - Who would be front and centre of a EU Ref II campaign for Remain ?
    Femi
    He's outstanding. Many political careers will be inspired by opposition to Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/963668404119982080

    Not quite getting this democracy thing?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Boris is an absolute, utter tosser.

    But he is also showbiz.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @holyroodmandy: And so, Boris Johnson makes jokes about 'cheapo flights to Europe so Brits can attend stag parties' while there is a Scot missing in Germany following a stag party. The man is an idiot.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    TOPPING said:

    Boris is an absolute, utter tosser.

    But he is also showbiz.

    :D
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @holyroodmandy: And so, Boris Johnson makes jokes about 'cheapo flights to Europe so Brits can attend stag parties' while there is a Scot missing in Germany following a stag party. The man is an idiot.

    He confirms Scots will still be able to get so bladdered that they fall in canals/run off with Ukranian hookers after Brexit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @holyroodmandy: 'Important' pro Brexit intervention speech from BoJo & so far innuendo about sex tourism, stag parties & dogging...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    calum said:
    Guess Adam Boulton's not a Boris fan then? I'm sure Faisal will be more kind? :D
  • Scott_P said:

    @holyroodmandy: 'Important' pro Brexit intervention speech from BoJo & so far innuendo about sex tourism, stag parties & dogging...

    Will there still be dog passports for the EU?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited February 2018
    Jeez Boris really is a dick.

    "How many people know the name of their Euro MP?" As an example of the EU being out of touch.

    And the charge against the EU is...it is anti-democratic.

    What a f*cking idiot.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GIN1138 said:

    calum said:
    Guess Adam Boulton's not a Boris fan then? I'm sure Faisal will be more kind? :D
    Faisal awaiting his spin lines email from Brussels.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    AndyJS said:



    But you can view that in the opposite way: people don't need to belong to the EU in order to exchange messages and talk to people in other European countries and all around the globe. They can do that anyway.

    But they "need" to belong to the EU to enjoy FoM to les pays limitrophes which is important.

    One of the most important things the dark side could do to cement Brexit would be to withdraw from Erasmus; that program is creating thousands of young people who cleave to a European identity every year.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited February 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Takes me back. We never did find out who was behind that did we?
  • John_M said:

    Morning all.

    I'd join in, but I'm giving up Brexit for Lent.


    You have just joined in.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited February 2018
    TOPPING said:

    Jeez Boris really is a dick.

    "How many people know the name of their Euro MP?" As an example of the EU being out of touch.

    And the charge against the EU is...it is anti-democratic.

    What a f*cking idiot.


    I love days like this on PB! :D
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Jeez Boris really is a dick.

    "How many people know the name of their Euro MP?" As an example of the EU being out of touch.

    And the charge against the EU is...it is anti-democratic.

    What a f*cking idiot.


    I love days like this on PB! :D
    This speech will cause a twitter triggerquake of 8.9 on the Newsnight scale.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Jeez Boris really is a dick.

    "How many people know the name of their Euro MP?" As an example of the EU being out of touch.

    And the charge against the EU is...it is anti-democratic.

    What a f*cking idiot.


    I love days like this on PB! :D
    This speech will cause a twitter triggerquake of 8.9 on the Newsnight scale.
    :D
  • I'm not watching live, but the excerpts on the Guardian live blog look very good. No doubt most people will respond according to their pre-existing prejudices, though.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    edited February 2018
    Scott_P said:

    @holyroodmandy: 'Important' pro Brexit intervention speech from BoJo & so far innuendo about sex tourism, stag parties & dogging...

    He really is a degenerate fuccboi.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Oh there is a Brexit Bonus now.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    If Angus Deayton hadn't done cocaine, Boris would not have hosted HIGNFY, he would not have become mayor, he would not have led Leave, we would not have left the EU and we would not have to hear this daft speech.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545

    I'm not watching live, but the excerpts on the Guardian live blog look very good. No doubt most people will respond according to their pre-existing prejudices, though.

    Yes that's true. I'm cringing from everything I've heard so far - but I think Boris is just sunk below the waterline on Brexit to me.
  • Boris is a polarising figure. If the Tories want to keep the Labour coalition together, he would be a great choice as the party's next leader. Ditto with Rees Mogg.
  • tpfkar said:

    Mr. Glenn, such arguments from those pro-EU would have more moral weight if they'd been made before polling day, when they thought they were going to win...

    The pro-EU side wasn't represented in the referendum. Cameron just proved that being lukewarm on the EU isn't sustainable.
    I'd agree with that. I'm as passionate a Remainer as anyone else; to my shame I ducked out of the EU referendum campaign as I was so turned off by the Remain campaign, only being shaken to my senses by the murder of Jo Cox. However the referendum was already lost by then.

    The Remain side have a powerful argument but seem unable to sell it. My advice in any future campaign would be to make the case for rejoining. Sell the EU for what it is at its best; a partnership of nations that has become a global superpower, where we've saved billions by pooling regulation costs, where we've hosted world-leading organisations, which has kept the peace in Europe like never before, and which has the weight to secure global trade deals as none of its members can on their own. The slogan: Together not Alone. Full of examples of EU achievements.

    The papers aren't going to talk up the EU's successes, but bizarre that the Remain campaign shied away from them as well. Education on what the EU does well is far more likely to shift minds (and hearts with the right examples) than predictions of GDP losses, or trying to blacken the name of every Brexiteer on issues nothing to do with Brexit. They also need to be smarter about the 'give the Government a kick' angle Labour Leave used so well - surely they could have got people to think about what would happen if Cameron was deposed, project reality in the weeks after the vote.

    I'm with those predicting a serious rejoin campaign unless the deal is amazingly good. We are just too entrenched, and the numbers are there in the 18-30s that if the next generation feel the same way, we're 15 years away from hundreds of MPs in this group and a majority in the country. Then it's all about whether the EU is in a state to justify rejoining. I would put money on it at decent odds.
    I don't often comment, but I just wanted to say thank you to tpfkar for this outstanding post.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Domestic fuel VAT cut - excellent news.
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