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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tick tock. Betting on the date of the UK’s exit from the EU

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    dr_spyn said:

    A tweet from Ben Bradley MP has vanished into the ether.

    “Corbyn sold British secrets to communist spies”. has gone

    Last week Tory MP Ben Bradley, who said people on benefits should have vasectomies, begs for his ‘mistakes’ to be forgotten.

    Few days later he tweets his now deleted Corbyn one.

    His other classics include 'unemployed wasters' should get vasectomies faces also saying he wanted cops to play 'splat the chav' with water canon if there were riots.

    Makes JO'M look mature
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    On university fees - this is one of the very few areas where I do go a bit technologist.
    It may all academic (haha) if MOOCs sort out their various issues and employers trust their qualifications.
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    MP Silja Dögg Gunnarsdóttir of the Progressive Party, who introduced the bill at the start of the month, said: "We are talking about children's rights, not about freedom of belief.

    "Everyone has the right to believe in what they want, but the rights of children come above the right to believe."
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    Have said from day one the timing of COB-gate is rather weird.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    stevef said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Dear Mrs May

    FYI regarding your speech to an empty room

    Most countries in Europe have no tuition fees.

    In 2014, Germany scrapped tuition fees.

    The cost to scrap tuition fees AND restore maintenance grants would cost £11.2 billion.

    Raising corporation tax to 2010 levels would raise around £19.4 billion.

    Love

    Jezza

    Does that include wiping out the debts of recent graduates and paying back those students who have started repaying their loans? Why should they be left out?

    Now what other tax would you raise to pay for the NHS and social care?

    Corporation tax cannot be spent twice, as I'm sure you - if not Jezza - realise.

    PS Most countries in Europe have a mix of private and public provision, including health insurance, to pay for health care. We do indeed have much to learn from EU countries, since you're on this meme.
    No it doesnt include wiping out debt of recent graduates as you are aware that wasnt in the Manifesto.

    19.4 Bn minus 11.2 Bn is 8.2Bn of CT still to use add to that £6.4Bn brought in by high rate income tax So thats £14.6Bn

    Then theres the Excessive pay surcharge on Companies wherby Companies paying staff more than £330,000 will pay a 2.5% surcharge while salaries above £500,000 will be charged at 5%. £2Bn

    Then theres the Robin Hood Tax £3Bn

    Then theres £3.7 billion from a series of reversals of Tory policy. It will repeal last year’s cut to capital gains tax, from 18% to 10% for basic rate payers, and from 28% to 20% for higher rate payers.

    Scrap married persons Tax Allowance reverse IHT changes etc etc

    £3.8 billion through an ‘efficiency review’ into the ‘range and scope of business tax reliefs and tax-planning structures like trusts’.

    The total increases for everything circa $48 Bn

    Its all there in the best Manifesto since WW2
    Not the best if you're paying the £48bn.

    But, let's assume for the sake of argument that billions of tax revenue would be raised with no economic ill effects, there would surely be bigger priorities than student fees and grants. It's a rather frivolous way of spending £11 bn, IMHO.
    The best manifesto since World War Two? Does that include 1945?

    And it contained very few Corbynite proposals. It states that Trident will be renewed for example. No mention of lifting the Tory ceiling on welfare. It also says that 95% of voters will pay no higher income tax or NI. Those things that were promised cannot be paid for.

    I agree with renewal of a Nuclear Deterrent.

    I have just listed how £48Bn of promises will be paid for.

    Did you not like the Manifesto
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    rkrkrk said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Oh dear, not the wisest tweet by Mr Bradley.
    I got him confused with the Labour MP of similar name... (Bradshaw?) and thought wow it’s really bad when your own party are calling you a spy.

    Corbyn should sue him and the Sun and say he will give the money to a veterans charity.
    What about the Telegraph and the Daily Mail?
    Have they said it too and incautiously?
    Then absolutely - get them in on it as well. Deep pockets at the Mail, although Telegraph I think maybe not so much.
    Let us all calm down. "Instructed solicitors to write a letter about" as against "to issue proceedings" is pretty milk and water stuff. If proceedings were issued and Corbyn were to succeed (and it is 100% certain that he would) I don't see a court battle and an examination of what he was actually up to in the 1980s improving his image particularly, and it might well do harm.
    I would imagine that Corbyn would just settle for an apology and maybe a small charitable donation.
    Isn’t that what the wrongly accused paedophile politician did?
    Yes, I think that is right.

    Point made, and you look graceful in victory.
    Well they do advice to not look directory at the sun.
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    I agree with renewal of a Nuclear Deterrent.

    I have just listed how £48Bn of promises will be paid for.

    Did you not like the Manifesto

    Only if those tax rises actually raise that tax revenue. Except that it won't, when you raise taxes it causes consequential effects which is why right now we have record corporation tax receipts while having low corporation tax rates.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,630
    edited February 2018
    John_M said:

    20Bn for NHS is the biggest commitment.

    i would agree £11Bn is ambitious but we cant go on giving our brightest and best a mountain of personal debt IMO

    I'd disagree that the ~50% of young men and women going to university are the 'brightest and best'. The chances are that many of the brightest and best will be in that group, but there will also be many more duds.

    In addition, there will be many people who did not attend university, who work hard and strive, do better than people who do go and sit in the student union all day, and should not have to pay for them.

    There seems to be a few people on here who think a degree is necessary to do or know anything, and that if you don't have a degree you are a pleb who should just stfu and pay for others to enjoy themselves for three years. ;)
    I got my degree via the OU when I was 42, so I have a foot in both camps :).

    One of the things that always irks me is the lazy 'boomers got free university education' meme. They didn't. Us non-graduates subsidised them via the tax system. This was not too iniquitous as relatively few people went to university (most didn't need to, as social mobility was still a thing - I prospered with mere A-levels).

    Expanding the HE system was daft - graduates used to be valued for their rarity. Now they're as cheap as chips.
    We also had higher basic rate income tax. The starting rate was 35% in the Seventies, and only went below 30% in 87.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    Yorkcity said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Oh dear, not the wisest tweet by Mr Bradley.
    I got him confused with the Labour MP of similar name... (Bradshaw?) and thought wow it’s really bad when your own party are calling you a spy.

    Corbyn should sue him and the Sun and say he will give the money to a veterans charity.
    What about the Telegraph and the Daily Mail?
    Have they said it too and incautiously?
    Then absolutely - get them in on it as well. Deep pockets at the Mail, although Telegraph I think maybe not so much.
    Let us all calm down. "Instructed solicitors to write a letter about" as against "to issue proceedings" is pretty milk and water stuff. If proceedings were issued and Corbyn were to succeed (and it is 100% certain that he would) I don't see a court battle and an examination of what he was actually up to in the 1980s improving his image particularly, and it might well do harm.
    I would imagine that Corbyn would just settle for an apology and maybe a small charitable donation.
    Isn’t that what the wrongly accused paedophile politician did?
    Yes, I think that is right.

    Point made, and you look graceful in victory.
    Well they do advice to not look directory at the sun.
    Directly
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    rkrkrk said:

    Oh dear, not the wisest tweet by Mr Bradley.
    I got him confused with the Labour MP of similar name... (Bradshaw?) and thought wow it’s really bad when your own party are calling you a spy.

    Corbyn should sue him and the Sun and say he will give the money to a veterans charity.
    Yeah, but it would be the IRA veterans... ;)
    Home run
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    MP Silja Dögg Gunnarsdóttir of the Progressive Party, who introduced the bill at the start of the month, said: "We are talking about children's rights, not about freedom of belief.

    "Everyone has the right to believe in what they want, but the rights of children come above the right to believe."
    What a good idea. Ban MGM. Until they're 18, anyway. Then they can make their own mind up. Also should the NHS provide the treatment? I don't think so. If you want to mutilate yourself for no clinical reason, then please pay for it yourself.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    stevef said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:



    19.4 Bn minus 11.2 Bn is 8.2Bn of CT still to use add to that £6.4Bn brought in by high rate income tax So thats £14.6Bn

    The Excessive pay surcharge on Companies wherby Companies paying staff more than £330,000 will pay a 2.5% surcharge while salaries above £500,000 will be charged at 5%. £2Bn

    the Robin Hood Tax £3Bn

    The £3.7 billion from a series of reversals of Tory policy. It will repeal last year’s cut to capital gains tax, from 18% to 10% for basic rate payers, and from 28% to 20% for higher rate payers.

    Scrap married persons Tax Allowance reverse IHT changes etc etc

    £3.8 billion through an ‘efficiency review’ into the ‘range and scope of business tax reliefs and tax-planning structures like trusts’.

    The total increases for everything circa $48 Bn

    Its all there in the best Manifesto since WW2
    The best manifesto since World War Two? Does that include 1945?

    And it contained very few Corbynite proposals. It states that Trident will be renewed for example. No mention of lifting the Tory ceiling on welfare. It also says that 95% of voters will pay no higher income tax or NI. Those things that were promised cannot be paid for.

    I agree with renewal of a Nuclear Deterrent.

    I have just listed how £48Bn of promises will be paid for.

    Did you not like the Manifesto
    The manifesto assumes that companies will stay here to pay the extra corporation and other taxes. I don't think such an assumption can be made. If staying in the UK means no or inhibited access to the Single Market, extra tariffs and extra tax, well some of them might well decide that decamping across the Channel makes more sense. The same may well apply to individuals. People and companies will change their behaviour in anticipation of and in response to tax changes. Any tax policy needs to understand this dynamic effect, as well as the other consequences of transferring so much purchasing power from people and entities to the state.

    It may work of course. But if it doesn't then the consequences for all of us could be very damaging. Previous examples in the UK of high taxation have not been very good and the big unknown is what sort of economy a post-Brexit Britain will have and what such policies will mean for it. On which point there is tumbleweed from Labour......
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    OchEye said:

    Just beginning to wonder, if all these attacks on Corbyn are a precursor to another GE. Not even TMay would be stupid enough to do that again. ... would she...

    No
    Who knows? I expect she will do whatever is necessary to stay in power.
    It is not like it used to be - almost impossible to just call a GE
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    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044


    I wonder how Corbyn and the Tooting Popular Front would react if the Tories abolished tuition fees before the next election. Like all political extremists of right and left before them, Corbyn and gang understand that youth movements are essential to the politics of the hard left with its mindless slogans and songs to the Leader.

    Corbyn and McDonnell are going to be in real trouble at the next election when they have to put their sums once more before the British people. They simply cannot explain how they will pay for pre Thatcherite spending on post Thatcherite tax. Taxing the rich is good but would not raise enough money. Just because you are on the left politically doesnt mean you have to be economically illiterate.

    I notice the 2017 manifesto made no mention of lifting the Tory cap on welfare, no promise to abolish Trident.

    No wonder the extremists of Momentum flood the internet to close down close scrutiny of
    Jeremy Corbyn and abuse those who criticise him.
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Ishmael_Z said:

    OchEye said:

    Just beginning to wonder, if all these attacks on Corbyn are a precursor to another GE. Not even TMay would be stupid enough to do that again. ... would she...

    Not her decision though, is it? There is every sign that Nick Timothy is regaining his political mojo.
    Oh Dear! His record is not particularly good at these sort of things, still if it takes minds off thinking about the mess the Tories are making of nearly everything, it might be a passable idea. But there are still many within the cabinet who dislike and distrust him.
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    OchEye said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    OchEye said:

    Just beginning to wonder, if all these attacks on Corbyn are a precursor to another GE. Not even TMay would be stupid enough to do that again. ... would she...

    Not her decision though, is it? There is every sign that Nick Timothy is regaining his political mojo.
    Oh Dear! His record is not particularly good at these sort of things, still if it takes minds off thinking about the mess the Tories are making of nearly everything, it might be a passable idea. But there are still many within the cabinet who dislike and distrust him.
    Are you guys on the sauce? There will not be an early GE.

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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,630

    MP Silja Dögg Gunnarsdóttir of the Progressive Party, who introduced the bill at the start of the month, said: "We are talking about children's rights, not about freedom of belief.

    "Everyone has the right to believe in what they want, but the rights of children come above the right to believe."
    What a good idea. Ban MGM. Until they're 18, anyway. Then they can make their own mind up. Also should the NHS provide the treatment? I don't think so. If you want to mutilate yourself for no clinical reason, then please pay for it yourself.
    Male circumcision on the NHS is just for clinical reasons at present.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    I agree! Well done Iceland for putting supporters of child mutilation on notice. Once the child is an adult, they can have it done if it is important to them.
    Why shouldn't the habit of piercing the ears of small female children also be included? As well as being vulgar, there is no reason - religious or otherwise - for it to be done. As you say, once the child is an adult they can have it done if it is important to them.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Thin skinned or thicker than two short ones?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/965679700101222405
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    MP Silja Dögg Gunnarsdóttir of the Progressive Party, who introduced the bill at the start of the month, said: "We are talking about children's rights, not about freedom of belief.

    "Everyone has the right to believe in what they want, but the rights of children come above the right to believe."

    Presumably children won't be forced by their parents to wear the skull cap or a hijab then, their rights being above the right to believe.......
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On taxes, my view is that income is already heavily taxed. Most people are paying 32%
    on any significant income and 42% if they are doing well, on top of which they're paying 2-5% gross contributions for pensions.

    Most people really struggle to have much left each month over after paying council tax on top
    (another £1k+) utility bills, food, mortgage/rent and transport costs. I don't think it's fair
    at all for the State to add to the burden.

    That may well be the case. But then people need to realise that if they don't pay more they can't have the public services they appear to want.

    Getting it into people's heads that if they want something they will have to pay for it, not expect someone else to do it, is essential if we're not going to go bankrupt as a nation.

    That may well mean that they will have to cut back on stuff that is now seen as essential but which were seen as luxuries decades back e.g. lots of foreign holidays, nice cars, phones upgraded every few months, etc etc. We can't keep on paying ourselves more than we earn. At some point, the Micawber rule is going to kick in......
    Maybe it's time to make the generation who need all the healthcare and social care services pay for it? Just a suggestion. At the moment we have a generation of above average earners aged between 24 and 40 unable to buy their own homes, paying rent to parasite landlords who are usually 55+ and now the parasite generation is looking to raise tax on the working population to pay for their old age care and healthcare. At some point the working classes will decide they've had enough of being a punching bag for their parents generation.
    That same generation that, when their earnings potential started to peak in the 1980s, had their income taxes slashed after their parents had shoulder high tax rates to fund their free higher education and lavish social security payments.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Cyclefree said:

    I agree! Well done Iceland for putting supporters of child mutilation on notice. Once the child is an adult, they can have it done if it is important to them.
    Why shouldn't the habit of piercing the ears of small female children also be included? As well as being vulgar, there is no reason - religious or otherwise - for it to be done. As you say, once the child is an adult they can have it done if it is important to them.
    +1
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    dr_spyn said:

    Thin skinned or thicker than two short ones?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/965679700101222405

    Surely CCHQ should back their man and call every possible witness in the trial.

    Sure, the libel action could cost £500,000, but it would be a barrage of press*

    *OK so that didn't work well last time. a Half million pound gamble...
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Foxy said:

    MP Silja Dögg Gunnarsdóttir of the Progressive Party, who introduced the bill at the start of the month, said: "We are talking about children's rights, not about freedom of belief.

    "Everyone has the right to believe in what they want, but the rights of children come above the right to believe."
    What a good idea. Ban MGM. Until they're 18, anyway. Then they can make their own mind up. Also should the NHS provide the treatment? I don't think so. If you want to mutilate yourself for no clinical reason, then please pay for it yourself.
    Male circumcision on the NHS is just for clinical reasons at present.
    Clinical reasons are very different from "... slice my son up to please some imaginary supernatural being"
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Oh dear, not the wisest tweet by Mr Bradley.
    I got him confused with the Labour MP of similar name... (Bradshaw?) and thought wow it’s really bad when your own party are calling you a spy.

    Corbyn should sue him and the Sun and say he will give the money to a veterans charity.
    What about the Telegraph and the Daily Mail?
    Have they said it too and incautiously?
    Then absolutely - get them in on it as well. Deep pockets at the Mail, although Telegraph I think maybe not so much.
    Let us all calm down. "Instructed solicitors to write a letter about" as against "to issue proceedings" is pretty milk and water stuff. If proceedings were issued and Corbyn were to succeed (and it is 100% certain that he would) I don't see a court battle and an examination of what he was actually up to in the 1980s improving his image particularly, and it might well do harm.
    I would imagine that Corbyn would just settle for an apology and maybe a small charitable donation.
    Isn’t that what the wrongly accused paedophile politician did?
    Yes, I think that is right.

    Point made, and you look graceful in victory.
    Well they do advice to not look directory at the sun.
    Directly
    Yes apologies, changed the word, without me noticing.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,238

    dr_spyn said:

    A tweet from Ben Bradley MP has vanished into the ether.

    “REMOVED”. has gone

    Last week Tory MP Ben Bradley, who said people on benefits should have vasectomies, begs for his ‘mistakes’ to be forgotten.

    Few days later he tweets his now deleted Corbyn one.

    His other classics include 'unemployed wasters' should get vasectomies faces also saying he wanted cops to play 'splat the chav' with water canon if there were riots.

    Makes JO'M look mature
    BJO

    Has it occurred to you that you have just effectively republished a tweet identified as libellous by its target?

    I know that you weren't aiming it at him but for Mike's sake please be careful.
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    NEW THREAD

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    @seanT is up for a fight on twitter.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited February 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    MP Silja Dögg Gunnarsdóttir of the Progressive Party, who introduced the bill at the start of the month, said: "We are talking about children's rights, not about freedom of belief.

    "Everyone has the right to believe in what they want, but the rights of children come above the right to believe."

    Presumably children won't be forced by their parents to wear the skull cap or a hijab then, their rights being above the right to believe.......
    Why should any child be forced to follow their parent's beliefs? Also, piercing kids ears is something that the child should have done when they are ready.

    It is their body, not the parents. The parents have no right to inflict bodily damage on their kids. In any other setting, inflicting such harm would be viewed as a serious assault.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,630

    Foxy said:

    MP Silja Dögg Gunnarsdóttir of the Progressive Party, who introduced the bill at the start of the month, said: "We are talking about children's rights, not about freedom of belief.

    "Everyone has the right to believe in what they want, but the rights of children come above the right to believe."
    What a good idea. Ban MGM. Until they're 18, anyway. Then they can make their own mind up. Also should the NHS provide the treatment? I don't think so. If you want to mutilate yourself for no clinical reason, then please pay for it yourself.
    Male circumcision on the NHS is just for clinical reasons at present.
    Clinical reasons are very different from "... slice my son up to please some imaginary supernatural being"
    Of course.
  • Options
    Cyclefree said:

    MP Silja Dögg Gunnarsdóttir of the Progressive Party, who introduced the bill at the start of the month, said: "We are talking about children's rights, not about freedom of belief.

    "Everyone has the right to believe in what they want, but the rights of children come above the right to believe."

    Presumably children won't be forced by their parents to wear the skull cap or a hijab then, their rights being above the right to believe.......
    I hope so.

    Though the difference is that a skull cap can be removed, genital mutilation reversal is a bit harder to reverse.
  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    OchEye said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    OchEye said:

    Just beginning to wonder, if all these attacks on Corbyn are a precursor to another GE. Not even TMay would be stupid enough to do that again. ... would she...

    Not her decision though, is it? There is every sign that Nick Timothy is regaining his political mojo.
    Oh Dear! His record is not particularly good at these sort of things, still if it takes minds off thinking about the mess the Tories are making of nearly everything, it might be a passable idea. But there are still many within the cabinet who dislike and distrust him.
    Are you guys on the sauce? There will not be an early GE.

    That's what everyone was saying this time last year, wonder what happened on that hillside in Wales...
This discussion has been closed.