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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s greater than a 1.25% chance that Emily Thornberry will

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  • Has yesterday's performance added any new letters to Brady's growing pile I wonder?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited February 2018
    William Hill fined £6.2 million after they failed to prevent money laundering.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43124258

    I'm going to say something that some may disagree with: as it is apparently caused by failings by senior management, the senior management at the time should have to shoulder much of the fine's burden.

    Too often firms make 'mistakes' like this, the company and shareholders get hit, whilst the management who made the decisions, or were utterly incompetent, face minimal or any consequences.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    hunchman said:

    A lot of tiresome anti-Russian propaganda on here tonight. Nobody has remotely proved anything about Russian collusion in UK and / or US elections. And talk about the pot calling the kettle black. We've never intervened in other countries affairs have we?! Obama didn't intervene in the EU referendum debate did he?! Lavrov and Putin have got more political skill in their little fingers compared to the appalling lack of talent of the likes of May, Alexander de Pfeffel Boris, Corbyn and Thornberry.

    I’m increasingly convinced you are a Russian troll bot. Either that, or you are incapable of reading headlines.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Has yesterday's performance added any new letters to Brady's growing pile I wonder?

    I would doubt it. As with Trump and Pence, her insurance policy is that at the moment Boris is still the obvious alternative. And if there is one person who has been less impressive than May recently it's BoJo. The PCP will surely be wary of voting in a contest where he might be in the top two.

    Her danger point will be this time next year if (a) another Cabinet minister has an impressive few months and (b) she doesn't resign first.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    Spot on. The Tories are just going to end up annoying everyone with this.
    For a long time I've been wondering if the Tories have a team of people watching me closely and then going away to work out how they can specifically cheese me off personally.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited February 2018

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    Spot on. The Tories are just going to end up annoying everyone with this.
    For a long time I've been wondering if the Tories have a team of people watching me closely and then going away to work out how they can specifically cheese me off personally.
    At least I can be sure they're not doing that with me. Irked though I was by Greening's removal at least I don't have to answer to the arrogant dogmatism and incompetence of Gove again!
  • AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    Spot on. The Tories are just going to end up annoying everyone with this.
    For a long time I've been wondering if the Tories have a team of people watching me closely and then going away to work out how they can specifically cheese me off personally.
    Since 5.30pm on July 13th 2016 Mrs May sole mission has to be annoy me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited February 2018
    To be honest I'm less worried about Corbyn ruining the City/The Financial Services Industry than I am about a no deal/WTO/Hard Brexit.

    There might be nothing left for Corbyn to trash.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good morning all.

    May is indecisive when she should be decisive and vice versa. It's dismaying (bum! tish!). Who on earth is advising her? Is it Nick Timothy reaching out from beyond the political grave?
  • Mr. M, she's shockingly inept. The grandees should've gotten tighter control when they forced Hill and Timothy out. Instead the magnates have been too busy jockeying for position with an eye on replacing May or getting allied to a potential successor.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ydoethur said:

    As a nation, I get the feeling we're more royally screwed than Messalina's bodyguards.

    Have you not seen David Davis's speech? It will not be a Mad Max post-apocalyptic wasteland, honest...

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/965846203643678720

    https://twitter.com/jenwilliamsmen/status/965729131706159105

  • hunchman said:

    A lot of tiresome anti-Russian propaganda on here tonight. Nobody has remotely proved anything about Russian collusion in UK and / or US elections. And talk about the pot calling the kettle black. We've never intervened in other countries affairs have we?! Obama didn't intervene in the EU referendum debate did he?! Lavrov and Putin have got more political skill in their little fingers compared to the appalling lack of talent of the likes of May, Alexander de Pfeffel Boris, Corbyn and Thornberry.

    I’m increasingly convinced you are a Russian troll bot. Either that, or you are incapable of reading headlines.
    Further evidence is provided by his vociferous denial of anthropogenic global warming, Russia being one of the few countries that are likely to benefit from a warmer world.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited February 2018

    hunchman said:

    A lot of tiresome anti-Russian propaganda on here tonight. Nobody has remotely proved anything about Russian collusion in UK and / or US elections. And talk about the pot calling the kettle black. We've never intervened in other countries affairs have we?! Obama didn't intervene in the EU referendum debate did he?! Lavrov and Putin have got more political skill in their little fingers compared to the appalling lack of talent of the likes of May, Alexander de Pfeffel Boris, Corbyn and Thornberry.

    I’m increasingly convinced you are a Russian troll bot. Either that, or you are incapable of reading headlines.
    Further evidence is provided by his vociferous denial of anthropogenic global warming, Russia being one of the few countries that are likely to benefit from a warmer world.
    hunchman has been around since forever. He's your honest-to-goodness home-grown British Nutcase. Wait until he talks about global financial cycles, honestly, it's fantastic.

    *edit* One of the minor sadnesses of Brexit is that PB has become stuck in a relatively small number of ruts. I miss people like Martin Day and Plato et al when it could get genuinely whacky. That said, I've only been around since '06 or thereabouts.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Scott_P said:

    ydoethur said:

    As a nation, I get the feeling we're more royally screwed than Messalina's bodyguards.

    Have you not seen David Davis's speech? It will not be a Mad Max post-apocalyptic wasteland, honest...

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/965846203643678720

    https://twitter.com/jenwilliamsmen/status/965729131706159105

    He's obviously not been to East Ham recently...

    We already have the Thunderdome on the other side of the river.

  • F1: Sauber's got some more backing. Along with the Alfa name, might be indicative of improving performance in the next few years. And survival.

    Renault and Sauber will be unveiling their cars today.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are just going to end up annoying everyone with this.

    That is May's signature move...
    Some people can impress by doing nothing. I think Theresa May may be one of those people.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Big-money Tory donor endorses Gavin Williamson as ‘like Churchill’ in fresh leadership headache for PM Theresa May

    Mr Temerko has given more than £1million to the party - and previously called for Theresa May to go after her general election debacle


    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/965866705103872000
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2018
    Scott_P said:

    Big-money Tory donor endorses Gavin Williamson as ‘like Churchill’ in fresh leadership headache for PM Theresa May

    Mr Temerko has given more than £1million to the party - and previously called for Theresa May to go after her general election debacle


    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/965866705103872000

    Gavin Williamson has two important points in his favour: (a) he isn't Theresa May and (b) he didn't go to Eton.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Pulpstar said:

    I dont understandn't what the Govt is doing wrt tuition fees.
    Why call for a review of the policy of scrapping them is completely off.the table.
    Why put the threshold up from 21 to 25k (A massive comparative change art median earnings and hence total cost of the scheme before the review)
    Why state greater variety is needed in the fees BEFORE the review.

    I am not saying fees are good or bad, but seriously don't get what the review is meant to decide, and why it has been called if govt policy is decided beforehand.

    It is looking into restoring the maintenance grant and cutting fees for courses with a lower graduate earnings premium and which cost less to run.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Scott_P said:

    Big-money Tory donor endorses Gavin Williamson as ‘like Churchill’ in fresh leadership headache for PM Theresa May

    Mr Temerko has given more than £1million to the party - and previously called for Theresa May to go after her general election debacle


    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/965866705103872000

    So £1M gives you a say in who becomes Tory leader? I always imagined it would cost rather more than that.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited February 2018
    rkrkrk said:

    Jezza to crush the city....

    Mr Corbyn has often criticised bankers, and promised a "fundamental shift" in economic policy if he wins power.

    A Labour government, he will say, "will take decisive action to make finance the servant of industry, not the masters of us all".

    In a speech to the EEF manufacturers' organisation on Tuesday, he will say his administration would be the first in 40 years - a period which includes 13 years of Labour government - to "stand up for the real economy".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43121199

    this concept of the "real economy" is very interesting, for about 30 years we have been told that the City and the Financial sector are fundamental to the UK economy....in that time it has grown significantly larger, has generated a massive bubble in central London and parts of the South East but most voters see very little physical benefit - hence the dire warnings about BREXIT and the City did not bother many....

    Perhaps JC has a point, the CIty has perhaps overblown its value the UK economy, RBS certainly
    JC doesn't have a point. He has a fundamental lack of understanding as to how to build a successful economy. He believes that Venezuela is the model we should follow. The man is seriously deluded.
    Where do I find out about this model that JC and Venezuela have in common?
    There is a case that the economic nationalism pursued by Venezuela has more in common with the Brexiteer arguments of BJ, JRM and Fox.....reduce your ties to your trading partners, develop a radical national rhetoric, make life harder for the poor and blame foreigners,,,,if you ask me, Venezuela looks more like elements of the Tory right's programme than anything JC et al have to say.
    Personally I think all these “we will be like country x or country y” comparisons are largely useless and the public ignores them.

    Possibly the only area where the British public has a firm view of this type IMO is that they don’t want a health system like the USA.
    From the other side of the debate I would wholeheartedly agree. The only thing I would add is we are pretty settled we don't want the US gun laws either.
  • Mr. Recidivist, "So £1M gives you a say in who becomes Tory leader? I always imagined it would cost rather more than that."

    *cough* It costs £3 for the same in Labour ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Scott_P said:
    A Canada style FTA that Dutch official talks about is not hard Brexit, that would be WTO terms
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Mr. Recidivist, "So £1M gives you a say in who becomes Tory leader? I always imagined it would cost rather more than that."

    *cough* It costs £3 for the same in Labour ;)

    Yes, much more democratic. You can see why they have more members.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are just going to end up annoying everyone with this.

    That is May's signature move...
    Some people can impress by doing nothing. I think Theresa May may be one of those people.
    She can be as shit as she likes as long as the Corbyn firewall is in place. If he goes, then the 1922 committee is going to be like the church scene in Kingsman.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Big-money Tory donor endorses Gavin Williamson as ‘like Churchill’ in fresh leadership headache for PM Theresa May

    Mr Temerko has given more than £1million to the party - and previously called for Theresa May to go after her general election debacle


    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/965866705103872000

    Gavin Williamson has two important points in his favour: (a) he isn't Theresa May and (b) he didn't go to Eton.
    The enormous black mark against him is that he is Gavin Williamson.
  • John_M said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Big-money Tory donor endorses Gavin Williamson as ‘like Churchill’ in fresh leadership headache for PM Theresa May

    Mr Temerko has given more than £1million to the party - and previously called for Theresa May to go after her general election debacle


    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/965866705103872000

    Gavin Williamson has two important points in his favour: (a) he isn't Theresa May and (b) he didn't go to Eton.
    The enormous black mark against him is that he is Gavin Williamson.
    I'd rather see Mark Reckless as Tory leader than Gavin Williamson.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Dura_Ace said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are just going to end up annoying everyone with this.

    That is May's signature move...
    Some people can impress by doing nothing. I think Theresa May may be one of those people.
    She can be as shit as she likes as long as the Corbyn firewall is in place. If he goes, then the 1922 committee is going to be like the church scene in Kingsman.
    Except no recent polling shows any alternative Tory leader doing better than May against Labour and no alternative Labour leader doing better than Corbyn against the Tories.

    Support for the two main parties is completely polarised for the foreseeable future post Brexit regardless of leadership
  • Mr. HYUFD, expecting objectivity or even sense from Faisal Islam is to be optimistic beyond reason. Any imbecile who can report on a 0.1% 'spike' in inflation writes his own headline before he has any of the pertinent information.

    Mr. Recidivist, I am unpersuaded that Labour becoming the plaything of SWP far leftists is an advance in democracy. One suspects that recent events in Leeds back up my perspective.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Scott_P said:

    Big-money Tory donor endorses Gavin Williamson as ‘like Churchill’ in fresh leadership headache for PM Theresa May

    Mr Temerko has given more than £1million to the party - and previously called for Theresa May to go after her general election debacle


    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/965866705103872000

    If Churchill was crossed with Alan Partridge
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Scott_P said:

    Big-money Tory donor endorses Gavin Williamson as ‘like Churchill’ in fresh leadership headache for PM Theresa May

    Mr Temerko has given more than £1million to the party - and previously called for Theresa May to go after her general election debacle


    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/965866705103872000

    Unbalanced, egotistical, clumsy in domestic policies, obsessed with war-related matters and hated and mistrusted by all his colleagues?

    I can see that parallel. I just can't see why they would want such a person as leader anent some major emergency that ruled out every other candidate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Big-money Tory donor endorses Gavin Williamson as ‘like Churchill’ in fresh leadership headache for PM Theresa May

    Mr Temerko has given more than £1million to the party - and previously called for Theresa May to go after her general election debacle


    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/965866705103872000

    If Churchill was crossed with Alan Partridge
    "We will fight them on the beaches...ah-hah!"
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    Big-money Tory donor endorses Gavin Williamson as ‘like Churchill’ in fresh leadership headache for PM Theresa May

    Mr Temerko has given more than £1million to the party - and previously called for Theresa May to go after her general election debacle


    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/965866705103872000

    Unbalanced, egotistical, clumsy in domestic policies, obsessed with war-related matters and hated and mistrusted by all his colleagues?

    I can see that parallel. I just can't see why they would want such a person as leader anent some major emergency that ruled out every other candidate.
    Temerko just proves the adage that money can't buy good taste.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Mr Corbyn is like Picasso who painted some of his greatest works in his 80s.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    John_M said:

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Big-money Tory donor endorses Gavin Williamson as ‘like Churchill’ in fresh leadership headache for PM Theresa May

    Mr Temerko has given more than £1million to the party - and previously called for Theresa May to go after her general election debacle


    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/965866705103872000

    Gavin Williamson has two important points in his favour: (a) he isn't Theresa May and (b) he didn't go to Eton.
    The enormous black mark against him is that he is Gavin Williamson.
    I'd rather see Mark Reckless as Tory leader than Gavin Williamson.
    I dunno. On the face of it, it's obviously fucking ludicrous but we're living in Brexitopia now where anything, no matter how stupid, can be marketed as logical or even inevitable.
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    Big-money Tory donor endorses Gavin Williamson as ‘like Churchill’ in fresh leadership headache for PM Theresa May

    Mr Temerko has given more than £1million to the party - and previously called for Theresa May to go after her general election debacle


    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/965866705103872000

    Unbalanced, egotistical, clumsy in domestic policies, obsessed with war-related matters and hated and mistrusted by all his colleagues?

    I can see that parallel. I just can't see why they would want such a person as leader anent some major emergency that ruled out every other candidate.
    When was he in the Liberal party though?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Mr Corbyn is like Picasso who painted some of his greatest works in his 80s.

    Again, he painted lots of things that look nothing like what he said they represented and overall were jarring and bewildering with the intention of shocking.

    Yep, can see that too.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:

    Jezza to crush the city....

    Mr Corbyn has often criticised bankers, and promised a "fundamental shift" in economic policy if he wins power.

    A Labour government, he will say, "will take decisive action to make finance the servant of industry, not the masters of us all".

    In a speech to the EEF manufacturers' organisation on Tuesday, he will say his administration would be the first in 40 years - a period which includes 13 years of Labour government - to "stand up for the real economy".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43121199

    this concept of the "real economy" is very interesting, for about 30 years we have been told that the City and the Financial sector are fundamental to the UK economy....in that time it has grown significantly larger, has generated a massive bubble in central London and parts of the South East but most voters see very little physical benefit - hence the dire warnings about BREXIT and the City did not bother many....

    Perhaps JC has a point, the CIty has perhaps overblown its value the UK economy, RBS certainly
    JC doesn't have a point. He has a fundamental lack of understanding as to how to build a successful economy. He believes that Venezuela is the model we should follow. The man is seriously deluded.
    Where do I find out about this model that JC and Venezuela have in common?
    There is a case that the economic nationalism pursued by Venezuela has more in common with the Brexiteer arguments of BJ, JRM and Fox.....reduce your ties to your trading partners, develop a radical national rhetoric, make life harder for the poor and blame foreigners,,,,if you ask me, Venezuela looks more like elements of the Tory right's programme than anything JC et al have to say.
    Personally I think all these “we will be like country x or country y” comparisons are largely useless and the public ignores them.

    Possibly the only area where the British public has a firm view of this type IMO is that they don’t want a health system like the USA.
    From the other side of the debate I would wholeheartedly agree. The only thing I would add is we are pretty settled we don't want the US gun laws either.
    Yes - good example.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    Big-money Tory donor endorses Gavin Williamson as ‘like Churchill’ in fresh leadership headache for PM Theresa May

    Mr Temerko has given more than £1million to the party - and previously called for Theresa May to go after her general election debacle


    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/965866705103872000

    Unbalanced, egotistical, clumsy in domestic policies, obsessed with war-related matters and hated and mistrusted by all his colleagues?

    I can see that parallel. I just can't see why they would want such a person as leader anent some major emergency that ruled out every other candidate.
    When was he in the Liberal party though?
    And he's never stood as an independent either, has he? Nor has he ever lost a by-election (ironically to a future cabinet colleague).

    Damn, it's not working as well as I thought.
  • NEW THREAD
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    stodge said:

    Scott_P said:

    ydoethur said:

    As a nation, I get the feeling we're more royally screwed than Messalina's bodyguards.

    Have you not seen David Davis's speech? It will not be a Mad Max post-apocalyptic wasteland, honest...

    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/965846203643678720

    https://twitter.com/jenwilliamsmen/status/965729131706159105

    He's obviously not been to East Ham recently...

    We already have the Thunderdome on the other side of the river.

    Have enough people seen Mad Max to even get the reference?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    HYUFD said:

    Except no recent polling shows any alternative Tory leader doing better than May against Labour and no alternative Labour leader doing better than Corbyn against the Tories.

    Support for the two main parties is completely polarised for the foreseeable future post Brexit regardless of leadership

    Of course, Theresa May won't go until either a) she is conclusively proven to be a vote-loser and b) someone else is conclusively proven to be a vote winner.

    Neither proposition is valid at the moment so she is safe. Even if a) became the case with declining poll ratings for the Conservatives, b) needs to be proven as it was in 1990 for a change of leadership to be initiated.

    The Conservatives aren't stupid enough to replace a winner with a loser or a loser with another loser. If no one else could do any better, May will lead the party to defeat and a new leader can start with a clean slate.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I dont understandn't what the Govt is doing wrt tuition fees.
    Why call for a review of the policy of scrapping them is completely off.the table.
    Why put the threshold up from 21 to 25k (A massive comparative change art median earnings and hence total cost of the scheme before the review)
    Why state greater variety is needed in the fees BEFORE the review.

    I am not saying fees are good or bad, but seriously don't get what the review is meant to decide, and why it has been called if govt policy is decided beforehand.

    Reviews don’t *decide* they provide political cover
    I know you're an intelligent man Charles, pray tell - precisely WHAT will this review give cover for.
    May doesn’t know. She’s a process monkey
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    stodge said:

    The Conservatives aren't stupid enough to replace a winner with a loser

    They already did
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Scott_P said:

    stodge said:

    The Conservatives aren't stupid enough to replace a winner with a loser

    They already did
    Not fair. Cameron spat his dummy. At the time, I was relieved that we got May rather than la Leadsom. Little did I know *cue Twilight Zone theme*
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Interesting bet by Mike, but I shall not be following him on this one. For Thornberry to become PM it needs:

    1) There to be a Labour leadership election
    2) Thornberry to win it
    3) Thornberry to then win a GE

    1) and 2) are possible, I agree.

    But I can`t see Thornberry (or any other female Labour leader) winning a GE. She won`t catch the zeitgeist as Corbyn has and, as I`ve said before, I cling to the hypothesis that the good old British public will accept a female right-wing PM but (like Americans) are too sexist to accept a female left-wing PM.


  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Mr. HYUFD, expecting objectivity or even sense from Faisal Islam is to be optimistic beyond reason. Any imbecile who can report on a 0.1% 'spike' in inflation writes his own headline before he has any of the pertinent information.

    Mr. Recidivist, I am unpersuaded that Labour becoming the plaything of SWP far leftists is an advance in democracy. One suspects that recent events in Leeds back up my perspective.

    I don't follow these things too closely so I am afraid the Leeds reference passes me by, but the SWP's few hundred followers would have to be very well practiced in mischief to have any impact on a party of several hundred thousand surely whatever they did in Leeds.

This discussion has been closed.