No it didn't Labour had an 11% lead in London in 2014 as SeanF ppints out and a 2% lead nationally, compared to current national polls which are almost neck and neck
Incidentally, there's an aspect of the Ben Bradley tweet story which is quite worrying from a Conservative point of view, which is that it shows a complete failure of Conservative message discipline. When the Sun story was published, all Tory MPs should immediately have been instructed not to touch the story with a bargepole unless they cleared it first with head office. Can you imagine Alastair Campbell in the New Labour days allowing a cock-up like that to happen?
On topic, Leavers aren't putting any effort into making Brexit a success. David Davis was the only one to engage seriously and he has more or less given up. It's up to erstwhile Remainers to make the best of a bad job.
Something new, or at least that I hadn't picked up before. Most Leavers don't care about the UK:
A majority of those in England who voted for the UK to leave the European Union are willing to risk the breakup of the UK to make Brexit happen
Eighty-eight per cent of leave voters felt that a ‘yes’ vote in a second referendum on Scottish independence was an acceptable price to pay in order to "take back control." A similarly high proportion, 81%, also felt that destabilising the Northern Ireland peace process would be worthwhile to see the UK exit the European Union.
The findings are taken from the 2017 Future of England survey, published by Cardiff University and the University of Edinburgh. I can't find the source for it.
Yougov has national voting intentions of Lab 53%, Con 33% in London, which is down 2% for Labour, and unchanged for the Conservatives.
The local voting intention is down 5% on the GE for the Conservatives, and down 1% for Labour.
At the General Election, the Conservatives led in 10 boroughs and Labour led in 22. A swing of 2% would put Labour in the lead in Barnet, making 23 to 9.
Oh, weren't people asking why he wasn't suing earlier?
Ben Bradley must be feeling a bit sick this morning - an MP's salary won't go too far towards Corbyn's legal costs and a "substantial" payment to a charity of his choice. And that's the cheaper route out for him now... Otherwise he's taking a six figure chance on rolling a six, where he'll just about break even if he wins. An invidious position to be in.
It's a bluff, let it go to Court and stay in the news for months. Party should cover Bradley's legal bills.
If it goes to Court then how is it a bluff? That BB deleted the tweet suggests he doesn't think he has much of a case.
Based on the information published in the Sun, Ben Bradley hasn't got a ghost of a case. What he claimed went far beyond what the documents showed. So unless he's got access to some as-yet unpublished evidence, he should apologise profusely and pay up.
I'd love to know what he said but I don't want Mike to get into trouble...
Mike is bulletproof provided he goes through the hoops specified in the UK: Defamation (Operators of Websites) Regulations 2013. It is the poster who is on the hook.
The Tories are finished in most parts of London because their core voters have moved to other parts of the country. For example Thurrock and Basildon used to be Labour seats even when Labour wasn't doing particularly well.
On topic, Leavers aren't putting any effort into making Brexit a success. David Davis was the only one to engage seriously and he has more or less given up. It's up to erstwhile Remainers to make the best of a bad job.
Something new, or at least that I hadn't picked up before. Most Leavers don't care about the UK:
A majority of those in England who voted for the UK to leave the European Union are willing to risk the breakup of the UK to make Brexit happen
Eighty-eight per cent of leave voters felt that a ‘yes’ vote in a second referendum on Scottish independence was an acceptable price to pay in order to "take back control." A similarly high proportion, 81%, also felt that destabilising the Northern Ireland peace process would be worthwhile to see the UK exit the European Union.
The findings are taken from the 2017 Future of England survey, published by Cardiff University and the University of Edinburgh. I can't find the source for it.
Yes, I had a thorough look for it yesterday as it seemed outlandish on the face of it. No problem turning up the 2014 version of the survey, but not this one.
Something new, or at least that I hadn't picked up before. Most Leavers don't care about the UK:
A majority of those in England who voted for the UK to leave the European Union are willing to risk the breakup of the UK to make Brexit happen
Eighty-eight per cent of leave voters felt that a ‘yes’ vote in a second referendum on Scottish independence was an acceptable price to pay in order to "take back control." A similarly high proportion, 81%, also felt that destabilising the Northern Ireland peace process would be worthwhile to see the UK exit the European Union.
The findings are taken from the 2017 Future of England survey, published by Cardiff University and the University of Edinburgh. I can't find the source for it.
Are you Yes yet?
One thing that a dissolution of the UK has going for it democratically is that it would undeniably be a very significant consequence of the 2016 referendum - nobody could say the voters had been ignored. It would deliver on the literal mandate for 'the UK' no longer to be a member state of the EU. And more importantly for the long-term, it would deliver a constitutional settlement in which English nationalism could be reframed in a more positive, internationalist way and would be more conducive to accepting our place in the family of modern European nations.
Incidentally, there's an aspect of the Ben Bradley tweet story which is quite worrying from a Conservative point of view, which is that it shows a complete failure of Conservative message discipline. When the Sun story was published, all Tory MPs should immediately have been instructed not to touch the story with a bargepole unless they cleared it first with head office. Can you imagine Alastair Campbell in the New Labour days allowing a cock-up like that to happen?
Isn't Bradley the youth czar who's supposed to be ushering in a new age of social media smarts for the Tories? I suppose 'youth' in some cases may be synonymous with naive idiocy.
The Tories are finished in most parts of London because their core voters have moved to other parts of the country. For example Thurrock and Basildon used to be Labour seats even when Labour wasn't doing particularly well.
Tell me about it. I was going through my clients' database earlier. Over the course of 15 years, I'd say half of them half of them have moved from Enfield to Hertfordshire and Essex. That's the Conservative-voting electorate.
Incidentally, there's an aspect of the Ben Bradley tweet story which is quite worrying from a Conservative point of view, which is that it shows a complete failure of Conservative message discipline. When the Sun story was published, all Tory MPs should immediately have been instructed not to touch the story with a bargepole unless they cleared it first with head office. Can you imagine Alastair Campbell in the New Labour days allowing a cock-up like that to happen?
Isn't Bradley the youth czar who's supposed to be ushering in a new age of social media smarts for the Tories? I suppose 'youth' in some cases may be synonymous with naive idiocy.
Certainly in the case of the Corbyn supporters it is.
On topic, Leavers aren't putting any effort into making Brexit a success. David Davis was the only one to engage seriously and he has more or less given up. It's up to erstwhile Remainers to make the best of a bad job.
Something new, or at least that I hadn't picked up before. Most Leavers don't care about the UK:
A majority of those in England who voted for the UK to leave the European Union are willing to risk the breakup of the UK to make Brexit happen
Eighty-eight per cent of leave voters felt that a ‘yes’ vote in a second referendum on Scottish independence was an acceptable price to pay in order to "take back control." A similarly high proportion, 81%, also felt that destabilising the Northern Ireland peace process would be worthwhile to see the UK exit the European Union.
The findings are taken from the 2017 Future of England survey, published by Cardiff University and the University of Edinburgh. I can't find the source for it.
The PB No to Indy Ref II Brexiteers are not representative it would appear.
Notice too that the author of the article heads it with a photo of a UKIP poster being held up by some thuggish looking characters thus attempting to associate 17 and a half million people who voted for Leave with a nasty right wing nationalist party.
Leave was supported by people from all political persuasions across the spectrum, right and left. Dennis Skinner the left wing Labour MP openly declared he would vote leave, The RMT the left wing Rail union campaigned for Leave, Jeremy Corbyn voted against every EU treaty for 30 years.
Its good to see Remoaners recognising that time is running out for them. By the end of 2018, however I am sure they will still be whingeing.
You are spectacularly wrong again.
Alastair didn't choose the picture, I did.
The fact you associate them with being thugs is interesting.
As a grammar Nazi, I chose this picture because it amuses me.
PB has regularly used this picture since October 2016.
I dont care who chose it, it heads the article and it attempts to make an association between Leavers in general and UKIP, when as I have pointed out Leave was supported across the spectrum.
Spectacularly wrong? A playground taunt. Do you deny that left wing Labour MPs that Dennis Skinner supported Leave, that Corbyn voted against the EU for 30 years, that the RMT union supported Leave. Are they UKIP supporters.
I have no illusions about UKIP, and although I voted Leave, I would not touch UKIP with a ten foot barge pole. You really should not be tarring 17 and a half million people with the UKIP brush. It is crude propaganda. You should show more respect to the majority of people who voted Leave.
If you are happy that this website should become a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, so be it. But it damages the Remoan cause-which is already fatally damaged anyway.
Yougov has national voting intentions of Lab 53%, Con 33% in London, which is down 2% for Labour, and unchanged for the Conservatives.
The local voting intention is down 5% on the GE for the Conservatives, and down 1% for Labour.
At the General Election, the Conservatives led in 10 boroughs and Labour led in 22. A swing of 2% would put Labour in the lead in Barnet, making 23 to 9.
To put that in context, if those national voting numbers were replicated across the country, the Conservatives would win a small majority, despite being 20% behind in London.
Something new, or at least that I hadn't picked up before. Most Leavers don't care about the UK:
A majority of those in England who voted for the UK to leave the European Union are willing to risk the breakup of the UK to make Brexit happen
Eighty-eight per cent of leave voters felt that a ‘yes’ vote in a second referendum on Scottish independence was an acceptable price to pay in order to "take back control." A similarly high proportion, 81%, also felt that destabilising the Northern Ireland peace process would be worthwhile to see the UK exit the European Union.
The findings are taken from the 2017 Future of England survey, published by Cardiff University and the University of Edinburgh. I can't find the source for it.
Are you Yes yet?
One thing that a dissolution of the UK has going for it democratically is that it would undeniably be a very significant consequence of the 2016 referendum - nobody could say the voters had been ignored. It would deliver on the literal mandate for 'the UK' no longer to be a member state of the EU. And more importantly for the long-term, it would deliver a constitutional settlement in which English nationalism could be reframed in a more positive, internationalist way and would be more conducive to accepting our place in the family of modern European nations.
I am a Scot who thinks both unions are good. So, No. Nevertheless whenever the English decide they don't want it anymore the gig's up for the United Kingdom.
I'm meeting it in Hammersmith later this afternoon.
The number isn't spurious. It is based on the hard Brexit (but not the WTO Brexit) that results in a GDP after 15 years that is 5% less than it would have been had we stayed in the EU. 5% of £2 trillion is £100 billion pa which is £2,000 million a week.
So you're quoting, as fact, a number from a 15 year forecast. Christ, and I thought the £350m for the NHS was mendacious. At least that had some vague grounding in reality.
LOL.
You can imagine the meeting.
'So, Ideas guys? Nothing is too barmy. Just shout it out' *SILENCE" 'Well, what worked for them before the referendum?' 'A Bus! We could have a bus. Because no-one likes novelty in the politics, right?' 'Don't you worry that having a bus drive around when there isn't a campaign on might look a bit, well, churlish? A bit juvenile? A bit unoriginal?' 'Nah, the people, they love a bus. And they hate Brexit. A bus is the answer to all our problems. A Bus, and Vince Cable calling for an exit from Brexit. Winning combo.'
Notice too that the author of the article heads it with a photo of a UKIP poster being held up by some thuggish looking characters thus attempting to associate 17 and a half million people who voted for Leave with a nasty right wing nationalist party.
Leave was supported by people from all political persuasions across the spectrum, right and left. Dennis Skinner the left wing Labour MP openly declared he would vote leave, The RMT the left wing Rail union campaigned for Leave, Jeremy Corbyn voted against every EU treaty for 30 years.
Its good to see Remoaners recognising that time is running out for them. By the end of 2018, however I am sure they will still be whingeing.
You are spectacularly wrong again.
Alastair didn't choose the picture, I did.
The fact you associate them with being thugs is interesting.
As a grammar Nazi, I chose this picture because it amuses me.
PB has regularly used this picture since October 2016.
I dont care who chose it, it heads the article and it attempts to make an association between Leavers in general and UKIP, when as I have pointed out Leave was supported across the spectrum.
Spectacularly wrong? A playground taunt. Do you deny that left wing Labour MPs that Dennis Skinner supported Leave, that Corbyn voted against the EU for 30 years, that the RMT union supported Leave. Are they UKIP supporters.
I have no illusions about UKIP, and although I voted Leave, I would not touch UKIP with a ten foot barge pole. You really should not be tarring 17 and a half million people with the UKIP brush. It is crude propaganda. You should show more respect to the majority of people who voted Leave.
If you are happy that this website should become a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, so be it. But it damages the Remoan cause-which is already fatally damaged anyway.
Playground taunts? From the chap who uses the term remoaner regularly.
You were spectacularly about who chose the picture. Move on.
As for a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, that's one of those irregular verbs.
I’m trying to get my head around the strategy of the Tory ideologues trying to press T May into a hard Brexit position...this is a minority position that stands no chance of getting Parliamentary approval.
The Tories are finished in most parts of London because their core voters have moved to other parts of the country. For example Thurrock and Basildon used to be Labour seats even when Labour wasn't doing particularly well.
Indeed Labour won Thurrock in 1992 and the Tories both Enfield seats then. Now Thurrock has a Tory MP and both Enfield seats are Labour. The Tories did not even win London in 2015 when they won an overall majority nationwide
MPs can't be sued for libel when they're inside Westminster.
Does that include posting on Twitter using the Parliamentary network?
John Hemming MP and Vince Cable MP made privileged statements in the past that were then widely reported. So I'd assume a tweet from the HoC is effectively 'safe'.
I’m trying to get my head around the strategy of the Tory ideologues trying to press T May into a hard Brexit position...this is a minority position that stands no chance of getting Parliamentary approval.
Tend to agree with you - but in the end TM will do a deal and then they take it or leave it
The Tories are finished in most parts of London because their core voters have moved to other parts of the country. For example Thurrock and Basildon used to be Labour seats even when Labour wasn't doing particularly well.
Surely this was ever so?
As people grow older and have families, they move out to the commuter belt, and later further afield in retirement. The difference is that they are increasingly not being replenished by young Tories in the metropolisme
Notice too that the author of the article heads it with a photo of a UKIP poster being held up by some thuggish looking characters thus attempting to associate 17 and a half million people who voted for Leave with a nasty right wing nationalist party.
Leave was supported by people from all political persuasions across the spectrum, right and left. Dennis Skinner the left wing Labour MP openly declared he would vote leave, The RMT the left wing Rail union campaigned for Leave, Jeremy Corbyn voted against every EU treaty for 30 years.
Its good to see Remoaners recognising that time is running out for them. By the end of 2018, however I am sure they will still be whingeing.
You are spectacularly wrong again.
Alastair didn't choose the picture, I did.
The fact you associate them with being thugs is interesting.
As a grammar Nazi, I chose this picture because it amuses me.
PB has regularly used this picture since October 2016.
I dont care who chose it, it heads the article and it attempts to make an association between Leavers in general and UKIP, when as I have pointed out Leave was supported across the spectrum.
Spectacularly wrong? A playground taunt. Do you deny that left wing Labour MPs that Dennis Skinner supported Leave, that Corbyn voted against the EU for 30 years, that the RMT union supported Leave. Are they UKIP supporters.
I have no illusions about UKIP, and although I voted Leave, I would not touch UKIP with a ten foot barge pole. You really should not be tarring 17 and a half million people with the UKIP brush. It is crude propaganda. You should show more respect to the majority of people who voted Leave.
If you are happy that this website should become a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, so be it. But it damages the Remoan cause-which is already fatally damaged anyway.
Playground taunts? From the chap who uses the term remoaner regularly.
You were spectacularly about who chose the picture. Move on.
As for a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, that's one of those irregular verbs.
And yet, we Leavers are expected to reach out, be magnanimous, basically give up on Brexit because the result was close? Hmmmmm.......
Notice too that the author of the article heads it with a photo of a UKIP poster being held up by some thuggish looking characters thus attempting to associate 17 and a half million people who voted for Leave with a nasty right wing nationalist party.
Leave was supported by people from all political persuasions across the spectrum, right and left. Dennis Skinner the left wing Labour MP openly declared he would vote leave, The RMT the left wing Rail union campaigned for Leave, Jeremy Corbyn voted against every EU treaty for 30 years.
Its good to see Remoaners recognising that time is running out for them. By the end of 2018, however I am sure they will still be whingeing.
You are spectacularly wrong again.
Alastair didn't choose the picture, I did.
The fact you associate them with being thugs is interesting.
As a grammar Nazi, I chose this picture because it amuses me.
PB has regularly used this picture since October 2016.
Anyone who thinks the people in the poster look thuggish must have lived a sheltered life. They look like ordinary middle aged and older middle England type folk.
Notice too that the author of the article heads it with a photo of a UKIP poster being held up by some thuggish looking characters thus attempting to associate 17 and a half million people who voted for Leave with a nasty right wing nationalist party.
Leave was supported by people from all political persuasions across the spectrum, right and left. Dennis Skinner the left wing Labour MP openly declared he would vote leave, The RMT the left wing Rail union campaigned for Leave, Jeremy Corbyn voted against every EU treaty for 30 years.
Its good to see Remoaners recognising that time is running out for them. By the end of 2018, however I am sure they will still be whingeing.
You are spectacularly wrong again.
Alastair didn't choose the picture, I did.
The fact you associate them with being thugs is interesting.
As a grammar Nazi, I chose this picture because it amuses me.
PB has regularly used this picture since October 2016.
Anyone who thinks the people in the poster look thuggish must have lived a sheltered life. They look like ordinary middle aged and older middle England type folk.
Yep, the kippers in the picture have a Pooteresque quality far removed from thuggery.
I have just seen May's Phillip Schofield interview. Dear God.
When will this national humiliation end ?
She's not primarily in office to give interviews on TV. A lot of people probably like the fact that she isn't a smooth politician like Blair and Cameron.
I have just seen May's Phillip Schofield interview. Dear God.
When will this national humiliation end ?
She's not primarily in office to give interviews on TV. A lot of people probably like the fact that she isn't a smooth politician like Blair and Cameron.
Not sure there is evidence that she is liked anywhere.
I have just seen May's Phillip Schofield interview. Dear God.
When will this national humiliation end ?
She's not primarily in office to give interviews on TV. A lot of people probably like the fact that she isn't a smooth politician like Blair and Cameron.
While there might be a grain of truth in that, the unfortunate fact is that her performance outside of interview is no better.
I’m trying to get my head around the strategy of the Tory ideologues trying to press T May into a hard Brexit position...this is a minority position that stands no chance of getting Parliamentary approval.
Tend to agree with you - but in the end TM will do a deal and then they take it or leave it
They will take it.They are not like John Major's, die hards .She will call their bluff as be they will fold.
I’m trying to get my head around the strategy of the Tory ideologues trying to press T May into a hard Brexit position...this is a minority position that stands no chance of getting Parliamentary approval.
Tend to agree with you - but in the end TM will do a deal and then they take it or leave it
They will take it.They are not like John Major's, die hards .She will call their bluff as be they will fold.
IDS "won" the locals in London in 2002 (In terms of vote share !) Cameron had a 7.7% lead there in 2006 too
Mainly because a lot of leftwingers voted LD after Iraq and when Blair led Labour, the Tories did not have a significantly higher voteshare in London in 2002 and 2006 than they do now
On topic, Leavers aren't putting any effort into making Brexit a success. David Davis was the only one to engage seriously and he has more or less given up. It's up to erstwhile Remainers to make the best of a bad job.
Something new, or at least that I hadn't picked up before. Most Leavers don't care about the UK:
A majority of those in England who voted for the UK to leave the European Union are willing to risk the breakup of the UK to make Brexit happen
Eighty-eight per cent of leave voters felt that a ‘yes’ vote in a second referendum on Scottish independence was an acceptable price to pay in order to "take back control." A similarly high proportion, 81%, also felt that destabilising the Northern Ireland peace process would be worthwhile to see the UK exit the European Union.
The findings are taken from the 2017 Future of England survey, published by Cardiff University and the University of Edinburgh. I can't find the source for it.
It's what I have been saying for a while. A lot of the Brexit vote was about right wing English nationalism. You can see it best in the Tory Brexit loons' views on the Irish border question - most recently in their statements that the Good Friday Agreement is not fit for purpose.
On-topic, ironically I can see a rejoin campaign reaching the parts that Remain has never been able to.
A re-join campaign would have to sell the benefits of being part of the EU, why would this be better? Whereas remain to this day has never had the confidence to sell the product, and got stuck in scaring against the alternative (with good reason given where we are - but it's not winning hearts or minds)
I wonder about the mechanics though. I agree with TSE that the issue will be closed if Brexit is 'meh' or better - but I see that as unlikely. So how would a rejoin campaign begin? Presumably first within the Lib Dems, and then seeing if it gets traction. So the first indication may be whether the Lib Dems go straight to a rejoin position (even if fudged as negotiate and referendum) or whether they sit tight and see if there's any public support first.
In his inner London heartland the swing from Conservative to Labour is a decisive 13.4 per cent. Even in outer London, where the Conservatives are stronger, the swing is 4.2 per cent.
The shift to Labour suggests a series of Tory citadels are no longer safe, including three that once seemed impregnable.
Wandsworth, which was Margaret Thatcher’s favourite council because of its zero poll tax and mould-breaking efficiencies, would fall from Tory control if the swing was even across inner London.
Westminster, which was hailed as a model of local government efficiency in John Major’s day, would also
Barnet, where the Conservatives have an overall majority of just one, looks certain to change hands.
Hillingdon in outer London looks safe for now, but would be vulnerable if the Labour swing increases in the run-up to polling day.
Any Brexit backlash on the night would add to Mrs May’s woes, the poll suggests. Remain voters split by an overwhelming 65 per cent to Labour and just 15 per cent to the Conservatives.
Moreover, Brexit is listed as one of the most important issues by 21 per cent of Londoners.
In his inner London heartland the swing from Conservative to Labour is a decisive 13.4 per cent. Even in outer London, where the Conservatives are stronger, the swing is 4.2 per cent.
The shift to Labour suggests a series of Tory citadels are no longer safe, including three that once seemed impregnable.
Wandsworth, which was Margaret Thatcher’s favourite council because of its zero poll tax and mould-breaking efficiencies, would fall from Tory control if the swing was even across inner London.
Westminster, which was hailed as a model of local government efficiency in John Major’s day, would also
Barnet, where the Conservatives have an overall majority of just one, looks certain to change hands.
Hillingdon in outer London looks safe for now, but would be vulnerable if the Labour swing increases in the run-up to polling day.
Any Brexit backlash on the night would add to Mrs May’s woes, the poll suggests. Remain voters split by an overwhelming 65 per cent to Labour and just 15 per cent to the Conservatives.
Moreover, Brexit is listed as one of the most important issues by 21 per cent of Londoners.
mould breaking?
You've been in America too long. Yes, mould, not mold.
Notice too that the author of the article heads it with a photo of a UKIP poster being held up by some thuggish looking characters thus attempting to associate 17 and a half million people who voted for Leave with a nasty right wing nationalist party.
Leave was supported by people from all political persuasions across the spectrum, right and left. Dennis Skinner the left wing Labour MP openly declared he would vote leave, The RMT the left wing Rail union campaigned for Leave, Jeremy Corbyn voted against every EU treaty for 30 years.
Its good to see Remoaners recognising that time is running out for them. By the end of 2018, however I am sure they will still be whingeing.
You are spectacularly wrong again.
Alastair didn't choose the picture, I did.
The fact you associate them with being thugs is interesting.
As a grammar Nazi, I chose this picture because it amuses me.
PB has regularly used this picture since October 2016.
I dont care who chose it, it heads the article and it attempts to make an association between Leavers in general and UKIP, when as I have pointed out Leave was supported across the spectrum.
Spectacularly wrong? A playground taunt. Do you deny that left wing Labour MPs that Dennis Skinner supported Leave, that Corbyn voted against the EU for 30 years, that the RMT union supported Leave. Are they UKIP supporters.
I have no illusions about UKIP, and although I voted Leave, I would not touch UKIP with a ten foot barge pole. You really should not be tarring 17 and a half million people with the UKIP brush. It is crude propaganda. You should show more respect to the majority of people who voted Leave.
If you are happy that this website should become a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, so be it. But it damages the Remoan cause-which is already fatally damaged anyway.
Playground taunts? From the chap who uses the term remoaner regularly.
You were spectacularly about who chose the picture. Move on.
As for a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, that's one of those irregular verbs.
And yet, we Leavers are expected to reach out, be magnanimous, basically give up on Brexit because the result was close? Hmmmmm.......
PB has regularly used pictures to enhance threads.
You sound like IOS complaining to Mike when I used a picture of Ed Miliband eating a bacon sarnie in a thread header.
Notice too that the author of the article heads it with a photo of a UKIP poster being held up by some thuggish looking characters thus attempting to associate 17 and a half million people who voted for Leave with a nasty right wing nationalist party.
Leave was supported by people from all political persuasions across the spectrum, right and left. Dennis Skinner the left wing Labour MP openly declared he would vote leave, The RMT the left wing Rail union campaigned for Leave, Jeremy Corbyn voted against every EU treaty for 30 years.
Its good to see Remoaners recognising that time is running out for them. By the end of 2018, however I am sure they will still be whingeing.
You are spectacularly wrong again.
Alastair didn't choose the picture, I did.
The fact you associate them with being thugs is interesting.
As a grammar Nazi, I chose this picture because it amuses me.
PB has regularly used this picture since October 2016.
I dont care who chose it, it heads the article and it attempts to make an association between Leavers in general and UKIP, when as I have pointed out Leave was supported across the spectrum.
Spectacularly wrong? A playground taunt. Do you deny that left wing Labour MPs that Dennis Skinner supported Leave, that Corbyn voted against the EU for 30 years, that the RMT union supported Leave. Are they UKIP supporters.
I have no illusions about UKIP, and although I voted Leave, I would not touch UKIP with a ten foot barge pole. You really should not be tarring 17 and a half million people with the UKIP brush. It is crude propaganda. You should show more respect to the majority of people who voted Leave.
If you are happy that this website should become a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, so be it. But it damages the Remoan cause-which is already fatally damaged anyway.
Playground taunts? From the chap who uses the term remoaner regularly.
You were spectacularly about who chose the picture. Move on.
As for a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, that's one of those irregular verbs.
And yet, we Leavers are expected to reach out, be magnanimous, basically give up on Brexit because the result was close? Hmmmmm.......
PB has regularly used pictures to enhance threads.
You sound like IOS complaining to Mike when I used a picture of Ed Miliband eating a bacon sarnie in a thread header.
No, I'm just pointing out the undoubted hypocrisy in your posting....
In his inner London heartland the swing from Conservative to Labour is a decisive 13.4 per cent. Even in outer London, where the Conservatives are stronger, the swing is 4.2 per cent.
The shift to Labour suggests a series of Tory citadels are no longer safe, including three that once seemed impregnable.
Wandsworth, which was Margaret Thatcher’s favourite council because of its zero poll tax and mould-breaking efficiencies, would fall from Tory control if the swing was even across inner London.
Westminster, which was hailed as a model of local government efficiency in John Major’s day, would also
Barnet, where the Conservatives have an overall majority of just one, looks certain to change hands.
Hillingdon in outer London looks safe for now, but would be vulnerable if the Labour swing increases in the run-up to polling day.
Any Brexit backlash on the night would add to Mrs May’s woes, the poll suggests. Remain voters split by an overwhelming 65 per cent to Labour and just 15 per cent to the Conservatives.
Moreover, Brexit is listed as one of the most important issues by 21 per cent of Londoners.
mould breaking?
You're in a land that removes the letter U for no reason.
Thank you for illustrating this piece with a picture showing the intellectual ability of your average Brexiteer.
When you consistently underrate your opponents, you consistently lose.
Pleasure. As the article says old and sad Brexiteers will be dying off in an ever increasing rate. I will be content to wait.
Your points so far this morning:
1. I was outwitted by a bunch of utter morons.
2. I am certain a rematch would go the same way, so my only option is to sit on my arse for years in the hope of a default.
keep 'em coming!
A lot of people who voted ‘IN’ in 1975 must have voted ‘OUT’ in 2016 so I REMAIN in favour of making a positive case for staying.
You lost to decades of reality about the EU though. Nothing since Brexit demonstrates they have any understanding of how to appeal to the UK.
We lost, I suspect, because of Blair’s failure to manage Eastern European immigration properly, coupled with a strong pound. When the (former) Deutschmark was strong against the poiund in the 70’s and 80’s, and German tax laws worked in their favour, the likes of the cast of Auf Weidersehn Pet went working in the Bundesrepublik. As the pound slides now closer to parity with the euro coming to the UK is going to be less attrractive to West Europeans and the rate against the zloty has deteriorated, althouigh, TBF, it’s improving a bit lately.
There was also a somewhat dishonest campaign on matters European in some of the Press. Straight bananas, anyone!
Why are we not all discusing the World WarThree that cameron threatened could happened as a result of the UK leaving the EU?
Was it mentioned at the recent European Security conference?
My opinion of Cameron is not something which can be reported on a site catering for those of refined tastes.
Interesting piece Alastair - agree that Leave architects would do well to plan for embedding Brexit in longer term. But I'd note that many people don't have especially strong views on Brexit, and there's no point trying to placate somebody whose views on the matter are aligned to Vince Cable's or Nick Clegg's or Tony Blair's. Or, indeed, Alastair Meeks. The focus should be on those who voted Remain narrowly because their vote of the risk trumped their general dislike of or detachment from the EU.
Also "rejoin on worse terms" makes a very significant difference. Without the current opt outs and given a few more decades of deeper EU integration it will be very clear that the vote is one on joining a political union not just a trading bloc. Couple that with the general bias of undecided referendum voters towards no change, the addition of new voters to the pool who predate the Brexit controversy and whose outlook and self definition may differ from the current wave of millennials (who are on voting surveys very loved up with Europe at the moment, though very few of them speak other European languages or have lived and worked elsewhere in the EU, which makes them quite unlike their continental European-identifying counterparts - the next generation of netizens may well self-perceive as "citizens of the world" but have an anglospheric slant and not necessary see themselves as deprived of their EU birthright) and the fact that global growth and trading patterns and restructuring of a post-Brexit economy will mean the Rejoin Bonus may be disappointingly thin economically as the EU diminishes in relative importance as a trade partner. I'm not sure the swing to rejoin is a ticking timebomb under Leavers' noses and it may need to put serious momentum together to come off.
A 4% swing in Outer London? Could be far worse, 8 years into government.
The Tories should not panic about collapse in Inner London. The Republicans can win national majorities despite being utterly trounced in inner cities in the US.
Remoaners (that tiny tiny minority of Remainers who wont accept the democratic vote of 2016) constantly whinge about being called Remoaners, yet they hurl around words like "fascist" to describe leavers. Such hypocrisy.
Articles by Remoaners headed by big purple posters of UKIP as if all leavers were fully paid up UKIPPers, and not drawn from across the political spectrum from right to left, is tabloidism at its worst.
The question that Remoaners should really be asking is this:
Why, if the leader of the opposition is such a great campaigner, did he not campaign furiously for the Remain cause? Why did he go on holiday during the referendum campaign?
Why did he not to attend a single major TV debate on the BBC or ITV during the campaign?
Why was Jeremy Corbyn's signature missing from the joint Labour leaders press statement in favour of Remain?
Why did he vote against every EU treaty, including the ones establishing the EU and the Single Market in the House of Commons for 30 years?
Brexit is the price that Remainers pay for having Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party.
When the history books are written, they will marvel at those blind enough not to see that.
Brexiteers pushing the "rejoin on worse terms" line are setting another trap for themselves since the obvious solution is to revoke Article 50 to keep the same terms.
Oh shucks, I was so looking forward to reading all the romantic details of the motorcycle tour.
Wouldn't float my boat, but chacun à son goût.
You'll always have Jan 'Live Aid' Sarkocy.
You mean you don’t want to know who was ridden more, the bike or Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott?
Come on, we were all thinking it.
I was hoping to get transcripts of bugged conversations over romantic dinners of bratwurst and sauerkraut, with the lovely Miss Abbott gazing in admiration as dashing young Jeremy dazzles her with tractor production statistics and praises the emancipation of women in the DDR.
I thought these Stasi guys were supposed to be thorough, but it seems they failed miserably in tracking what must have been a hugely unusual trip.
Note the tense “there is no Stasi file”
(Wasn’t there a scandal in Fetmany where someone had filletted the Stasi archives)
In his inner London heartland the swing from Conservative to Labour is a decisive 13.4 per cent. Even in outer London, where the Conservatives are stronger, the swing is 4.2 per cent.
The shift to Labour suggests a series of Tory citadels are no longer safe, including three that once seemed impregnable.
Wandsworth, which was Margaret Thatcher’s favourite council because of its zero poll tax and mould-breaking efficiencies, would fall from Tory control if the swing was even across inner London.
Westminster, which was hailed as a model of local government efficiency in John Major’s day, would also
Barnet, where the Conservatives have an overall majority of just one, looks certain to change hands.
Hillingdon in outer London looks safe for now, but would be vulnerable if the Labour swing increases in the run-up to polling day.
Any Brexit backlash on the night would add to Mrs May’s woes, the poll suggests. Remain voters split by an overwhelming 65 per cent to Labour and just 15 per cent to the Conservatives.
Moreover, Brexit is listed as one of the most important issues by 21 per cent of Londoners.
mould breaking?
You're in a land that removes the letter U for no reason.
I have just seen May's Phillip Schofield interview. Dear God.
When will this national humiliation end ?
She's not primarily in office to give interviews on TV. A lot of people probably like the fact that she isn't a smooth politician like Blair and Cameron.
Not sure there is evidence that she is liked anywhere.
Maybe. But outside the metropolitan media bubble she's not disastrously unpopular either. For now I'm afraid she's as good as it gets,
Having a look at London, are there any two neighbouring seats (In the entire country) with more differing Lab/Tory vote %s than Croydon North and Croydon South ?
Notice too that the author of the article heads it with a photo of a UKIP poster being held up by some thuggish looking characters thus attempting to associate 17 and a half million people who voted for Leave with a nasty right wing nationalist party.
Its good to see Remoaners recognising that time is running out for them. By the end of 2018, however I am sure they will still be whingeing.
If you are happy that this website should become a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, so be it. But it damages the Remoan cause-which is already fatally damaged anyway.
Playground taunts? From the chap who uses the term remoaner regularly.
You were spectacularly about who chose the picture. Move on.
As for a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, that's one of those irregular verbs.
And yet, we Leavers are expected to reach out, be magnanimous, basically give up on Brexit because the result was close? Hmmmmm.......
PB has regularly used pictures to enhance threads.
You sound like IOS complaining to Mike when I used a picture of Ed Miliband eating a bacon sarnie in a thread header.
No, I'm just pointing out the undoubted hypocrisy in your posting....
Every one of the people in that photograph is prettier than I am. Hence I don't mind. I do know where to put an apostrophe, which is meagre compensation.
I'm not sure which Leavers Alastair is referring to. The cabinet members? Or Leavers more generally?
My view is simple, we voted to leave, very narrowly. That merits a Gentle Brexit (or perhaps, I Can't Believe It's Not EU Membership). Campaigning to overturn the decision is fine; democracy isn't like a frock to be taken on and off when it suits. Similarly, I'm sure a party will make rejoining a manifesto commitment sometime in the 20s. Also fine.
As I said earlier, if we ever do invoke article 49, it will be with our eyes wide open to the fact that we're joining a Federal state. It's the fundamental dishonesty poorly concealed via Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam and Lisbon that has driven the UK up an evolutionary cul de sac.
I think Brexit helps the EU in its endeavour to make the Euro a practical rather than political project. Perhaps that will make it more attractive to a future UK electorate.
In the mean time, I shall continue to be politeness itself with everyone I meet as I go about my business, remainer, brexiteer, plucky Brit or sturdy Johnny Foreigner.
Apart from the people who run that bus. They're all lying c*nts.
I have just seen May's Phillip Schofield interview. Dear God.
When will this national humiliation end ?
She's not primarily in office to give interviews on TV. A lot of people probably like the fact that she isn't a smooth politician like Blair and Cameron.
Not sure there is evidence that she is liked anywhere.
Maybe. But ouside the metropolitan media bubble she's not disastrously unpopular either. For now I'm afraid she's as good as it gets,
But the collapse in her ratings over such a short space of time is only really matched by Gordon Brown.
Not a good omen.
She's only really been good for the ghost of Sir Anthony Eden who now goes round saying 'See, I'm no longer the worst'
Having a look at London, are there any two neighbouring seats (In the entire country) with more differing Lab/Tory vote %s than Croydon North and Croydon South ?
I reckon there must be in North Yorkshire with York Central and the neighbouring seats.
Brexiteers pushing the "rejoin on worse terms" line are setting another trap for themselves since the obvious solution is to revoke Article 50 to keep the same terms.
That only works if the current terms were "good". Keen Brexiteers believe they are merely dire. Whereas rejoining on "full political union plus the euro" terms would be diabolical.
I think the terms matter quite a lot actually. Cameron attempted a renegotiation and it was an utter damp squib. How many voters were lost when they realised the current terms were the best we could expect to have? If Cameron had managed something more substantial and the EU as a whole had realised they needed a restructuring that recognised and protected states only seeking to participate in trade without taking on the full federalist project, perhaps some kind of formal associate membership or similar, I don't believe Leave would have won.
I'm meeting it in Hammersmith later this afternoon.
The number isn't spurious. It is based on the hard Brexit (but not the WTO Brexit) that results in a GDP after 15 years that is 5% less than it would have been had we stayed in the EU. 5% of £2 trillion is £100 billion pa which is £2,000 million a week.
So you're quoting, as fact, a number from a 15 year forecast. Christ, and I thought the £350m for the NHS was mendacious. At least that had some vague grounding in reality.
LOL.
You can imagine the meeting.
'So, Ideas guys? Nothing is too barmy. Just shout it out' *SILENCE" 'Well, what worked for them before the referendum?' 'A Bus! We could have a bus. Because no-one likes novelty in the politics, right?' 'Don't you worry that having a bus drive around when there isn't a campaign on might look a bit, well, churlish? A bit juvenile? A bit unoriginal?' 'Nah, the people, they love a bus. And they hate Brexit. A bus is the answer to all our problems. A Bus, and Vince Cable calling for an exit from Brexit. Winning combo.'
Absolutely unspoofable.
What’s funnier is that someone has stumped up five figures to rent the bus and decorate it to campaign for a vote that happened a year and a half ago.
Brexiteers pushing the "rejoin on worse terms" line are setting another trap for themselves since the obvious solution is to revoke Article 50 to keep the same terms.
That only works if the current terms were "good". Keen Brexiteers believe they are merely dire. Whereas rejoining on "full political union plus the euro" terms would be diabolical.
I think the terms matter quite a lot actually. Cameron attempted a renegotiation and it was an utter damp squib. How many voters were lost when they realised the current terms were the best we could expect to have? If Cameron had managed something more substantial and the EU as a whole had realised they needed a restructuring that recognised and protected states only seeking to participate in trade without taking on the full federalist project, perhaps some kind of formal associate membership or similar, I don't believe Leave would have won.
If states 'only seeking to participate in trade' exist, the UK is not one of them. That's why its own contradictions doom Brexit to failure.
Having a look at London, are there any two neighbouring seats (In the entire country) with more differing Lab/Tory vote %s than Croydon North and Croydon South ?
I reckon there must be in North Yorkshire with York Central and the neighbouring seats.
I think York Central is the jam in a doughnut of York Outer - so it only borders one seat. is Bath - North East Somerset the only other example of this?
Having a look at London, are there any two neighbouring seats (In the entire country) with more differing Lab/Tory vote %s than Croydon North and Croydon South ?
I reckon there must be in North Yorkshire with York Central and the neighbouring seats.
Apologies for the misuse of the word 'swing' here, but...
The York Outer/Central change is a 24.7% 'swing'. Croydon South/North is 36.5 - so nowhere near really. The Lab/Tory difference gap between Bath and North East Somerset is only 1.1%...
Remoaners (that tiny tiny minority of Remainers who wont accept the democratic vote of 2016) constantly whinge about being called Remoaners, yet they hurl around words like "fascist" to describe leavers. Such hypocrisy.
Articles by Remoaners headed by big purple posters of UKIP as if all leavers were fully paid up UKIPPers, and not drawn from across the political spectrum from right to left, is tabloidism at its worst.
The question that Remoaners should really be asking is this:
Why, if the leader of the opposition is such a great campaigner, did he not campaign furiously for the Remain cause? Why did he go on holiday during the referendum campaign?
Why did he not to attend a single major TV debate on the BBC or ITV during the campaign?
Why was Jeremy Corbyn's signature missing from the joint Labour leaders press statement in favour of Remain?
Why did he vote against every EU treaty, including the ones establishing the EU and the Single Market in the House of Commons for 30 years?
Brexit is the price that Remainers pay for having Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party.
When the history books are written, they will marvel at those blind enough not to see that.
"Brexit is the price that Remainers pay for having Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party." What rubbish, I for one don't want Corbyn as leader of Labour and do not wish to have Brexit as the price I must pay for it.
Oxford East had a Labour vote of 65.2% at the last election. Henley had a Labour vote of 20.1%. Oxford East had a Conservative vote of 22.0% at the last election. Henley had a Conservative vote of 59.1%.
That makes for a "swing" of 41.1% between adjacent seats.
Remoaners (that tiny tiny minority of Remainers who wont accept the democratic vote of 2016) constantly whinge about being called Remoaners, yet they hurl around words like "fascist" to describe leavers. Such hypocrisy.
Articles by Remoaners headed by big purple posters of UKIP as if all leavers were fully paid up UKIPPers, and not drawn from across the political spectrum from right to left, is tabloidism at its worst.
The question that Remoaners should really be asking is this:
Why, if the leader of the opposition is such a great campaigner, did he not campaign furiously for the Remain cause? Why did he go on holiday during the referendum campaign?
Why did he not to attend a single major TV debate on the BBC or ITV during the campaign?
Why was Jeremy Corbyn's signature missing from the joint Labour leaders press statement in favour of Remain?
Why did he vote against every EU treaty, including the ones establishing the EU and the Single Market in the House of Commons for 30 years?
Brexit is the price that Remainers pay for having Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party.
When the history books are written, they will marvel at those blind enough not to see that.
Because in reality it was a bun fight between Conservatives.Also he saw what happened to Labour in Scotland .
I have just seen May's Phillip Schofield interview. Dear God.
When will this national humiliation end ?
She's not primarily in office to give interviews on TV. A lot of people probably like the fact that she isn't a smooth politician like Blair and Cameron.
Not sure there is evidence that she is liked anywhere.
It’s the fact that she is so nervous....her voice wobbles, her eyes resemble those of a cat that’s just stumbled on a Rottweiler, and she seems always on the point of hysteria. It must be painful being in her head during these moments because she is clearly trying to suppress a panic attack. Brown was similarly very uncomfortable under the spotlight.
I was once doing a conference presentation and dried up out of nowhere........it was terrifying. I wandered into the audience, grabbed a programme from a woman in the front row who thought I was bonkers, and re-gained my composure, all quite seamlessly.
A PM must want to be a frontman...Blair, Cameron thrived......Trump thrives.....Macron thrives....Merkel looks as cool as ice..... I really struggle why May decided to put herself through it all psychologically. As a type I diabetic as well, how many healthy years has she potentially got left, and how many of these is she putting at risk through acute anxiety?
Barbara Streisand struggled with anxiety and stage fright all her career.
May’s election campaign where she avoided any kind of spotlight was astonishing in hindsight....and will never be repeated by any political party....
Having a look at London, are there any two neighbouring seats (In the entire country) with more differing Lab/Tory vote %s than Croydon North and Croydon South ?
Not looked at the numbers, but Arundel and the South Downs / Brighton Pavilion must be a good shout.
Edit: Or Hove instead of Brighton Pavilion if you want genuine Lab/Con rather than Con/non-Con
I'm meeting it in Hammersmith later this afternoon.
The number isn't spurious. It is based on the hard Brexit (but not the WTO Brexit) that results in a GDP after 15 years that is 5% less than it would have been had we stayed in the EU. 5% of £2 trillion is £100 billion pa which is £2,000 million a week.
Brexiteers pushing the "rejoin on worse terms" line are setting another trap for themselves since the obvious solution is to revoke Article 50 to keep the same terms.
That only works if the current terms were "good". Keen Brexiteers believe they are merely dire. Whereas rejoining on "full political union plus the euro" terms would be diabolical.
I think the terms matter quite a lot actually. Cameron attempted a renegotiation and it was an utter damp squib. How many voters were lost when they realised the current terms were the best we could expect to have? If Cameron had managed something more substantial and the EU as a whole had realised they needed a restructuring that recognised and protected states only seeking to participate in trade without taking on the full federalist project, perhaps some kind of formal associate membership or similar, I don't believe Leave would have won.
If states 'only seeking to participate in trade' exist, the UK is not one of them. That's why its own contradictions doom Brexit to failure.
In terms of the attractions to voters, the most important thing to Brits about the EU was ease of doing business and the economic benefits. Environmental and rights concerns to some extent too, though those have always been things that voters who felt strongly about could have pushed through Westminster in the absence of Brussels. Britons have generally not been so strongly affected by the legacy of 1945 and don't see membership of the EU as necessary for Peace, whereas in many continental countries leaving is a great unthinkable it brings up the most appalling of spectres. In the eastern countries and to some extent Iberia, EU membership is seen as synonymous with adopting Western democracy - again, not such a strong factor in the UK. Persuading Brits to vote for a trading bloc with ancillary cooperation where mutually beneficial was always a goer. Persuading Brits to vote for a federal union will be an uphill struggle for the foreseeable future. Something in between, as the EU currently is, was bound to produce a tight result. With a setup where members outside the more closely integrated core enjoyed clearer protections and the "ratchet effect" of ever tightening integration was cranked down, I honestly believe Remain would have extracted a narrow victory.
Having a look at London, are there any two neighbouring seats (In the entire country) with more differing Lab/Tory vote %s than Croydon North and Croydon South ?
I reckon there must be in North Yorkshire with York Central and the neighbouring seats.
I think York Central is the jam in a doughnut of York Outer - so it only borders one seat. is Bath - North East Somerset the only other example of this?
Oxford East had a Labour vote of 65.2% at the last election. Henley had a Labour vote of 20.1%. Oxford East had a Conservative vote of 22.0% at the last election. Henley had a Conservative vote of 59.1%.
That makes for a "swing" of 41.1% between adjacent seats.
oxford east is a wonderful liberal utopia much like Norwich South......
BTW a very good article Mr Meeks, as always......
I’m nursing an atrocious hangover after hooking up with a group of Albanian lorry drivers in the Florence suburbs....we watched the football together. Jesus they can drink and they are so generous....they even picked the tab for my food, and offered me a lift back which I declined obviously.
I’m randomly saying this on the basis of a problem shared.......
Brexiteers pushing the "rejoin on worse terms" line are setting another trap for themselves since the obvious solution is to revoke Article 50 to keep the same terms.
That only works if the current terms were "good". Keen Brexiteers believe they are merely dire. Whereas rejoining on "full political union plus the euro" terms would be diabolical.
I think the terms matter quite a lot actually. Cameron attempted a renegotiation and it was an utter damp squib. How many voters were lost when they realised the current terms were the best we could expect to have? If Cameron had managed something more substantial and the EU as a whole had realised they needed a restructuring that recognised and protected states only seeking to participate in trade without taking on the full federalist project, perhaps some kind of formal associate membership or similar, I don't believe Leave would have won.
If states 'only seeking to participate in trade' exist, the UK is not one of them. That's why its own contradictions doom Brexit to failure.
In terms of the attractions to voters, the most important thing to Brits about the EU was ease of doing business and the economic benefits. Environmental and rights concerns to some extent too, though those have always been things that voters who felt strongly about could have pushed through Westminster in the absence of Brussels. Britons have generally not been so strongly affected by the legacy of 1945 and don't see membership of the EU as necessary for Peace, whereas in many continental countries leaving is a great unthinkable it brings up the most appalling of spectres. In the eastern countries and to some extent Iberia, EU membership is seen as synonymous with adopting Western democracy - again, not such a strong factor in the UK. Persuading Brits to vote for a trading bloc with ancillary cooperation where mutually beneficial was always a goer. Persuading Brits to vote for a federal union will be an uphill struggle for the foreseeable future. Something in between, as the EU currently is, was bound to produce a tight result. With a setup where members outside the more closely integrated core enjoyed clearer protections and the "ratchet effect" of ever tightening integration was cranked down, I honestly believe Remain would have extracted a narrow victory.
Maybe I'm being pedantic but you said 'states' and I think that's important. The British state has vital political interests in EU membership that go beyond the points you raised.
It's revealing that some Eurosceptics are still bemoaning the mistakes of the Remain campaign.
I have just seen May's Phillip Schofield interview. Dear God.
When will this national humiliation end ?
She's not primarily in office to give interviews on TV. A lot of people probably like the fact that she isn't a smooth politician like Blair and Cameron.
I like that bit.
It's the wrecking the country by leaving the EU too quickly that puts me off.
Having a look at London, are there any two neighbouring seats (In the entire country) with more differing Lab/Tory vote %s than Croydon North and Croydon South ?
Not looked at the numbers, but Arundel and the South Downs / Brighton Pavilion must be a good shout.
Edit: Or Hove instead of Brighton Pavilion if you want genuine Lab/Con rather than Con/non-Con
Pavilion/Arundel might be the biggest Con/Non-Con split (Ox East/Henley still bigger actually !). Bristol West/North Somerset worth an honorable mention too..
I'm meeting it in Hammersmith later this afternoon.
The number isn't spurious. It is based on the hard Brexit (but not the WTO Brexit) that results in a GDP after 15 years that is 5% less than it would have been had we stayed in the EU. 5% of £2 trillion is £100 billion pa which is £2,000 million a week.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017_(England)#Regional_Results
Something new, or at least that I hadn't picked up before. Most Leavers don't care about the UK:
A majority of those in England who voted for the UK to leave the European Union are willing to risk the breakup of the UK to make Brexit happen
Eighty-eight per cent of leave voters felt that a ‘yes’ vote in a second referendum on Scottish independence was an acceptable price to pay in order to "take back control." A similarly high proportion, 81%, also felt that destabilising the Northern Ireland peace process would be worthwhile to see the UK exit the European Union.
The findings are taken from the 2017 Future of England survey, published by Cardiff University and the University of Edinburgh. I can't find the source for it.
The local voting intention is down 5% on the GE for the Conservatives, and down 1% for Labour.
At the General Election, the Conservatives led in 10 boroughs and Labour led in 22. A swing of 2% would put Labour in the lead in Barnet, making 23 to 9.
One thing that a dissolution of the UK has going for it democratically is that it would undeniably be a very significant consequence of the 2016 referendum - nobody could say the voters had been ignored. It would deliver on the literal mandate for 'the UK' no longer to be a member state of the EU. And more importantly for the long-term, it would deliver a constitutional settlement in which English nationalism could be reframed in a more positive, internationalist way and would be more conducive to accepting our place in the family of modern European nations.
Spectacularly wrong? A playground taunt. Do you deny that left wing Labour MPs that Dennis Skinner supported Leave, that Corbyn voted against the EU for 30 years, that the RMT union supported Leave. Are they UKIP supporters.
I have no illusions about UKIP, and although I voted Leave, I would not touch UKIP with a ten foot barge pole. You really should not be tarring 17 and a half million people with the UKIP brush. It is crude propaganda. You should show more respect to the majority of people who voted Leave.
If you are happy that this website should become a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, so be it. But it damages the Remoan cause-which is already fatally damaged anyway.
You were spectacularly about who chose the picture. Move on.
As for a vehicle for crude anti Leave propaganda, that's one of those irregular verbs.
As people grow older and have families, they move out to the commuter belt, and later further afield in retirement. The difference is that they are increasingly not being replenished by young Tories in the metropolisme
Cameron had a 7.7% lead there in 2006 too
Dear God.
When will this national humiliation end ?
http://www.lbc.co.uk/hot-topics/eu-referendum/anti-brexit-bus-launched-and-gets-stuck/
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/966289036087316482
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLaGsh0GEvs
A re-join campaign would have to sell the benefits of being part of the EU, why would this be better? Whereas remain to this day has never had the confidence to sell the product, and got stuck in scaring against the alternative (with good reason given where we are - but it's not winning hearts or minds)
I wonder about the mechanics though. I agree with TSE that the issue will be closed if Brexit is 'meh' or better - but I see that as unlikely. So how would a rejoin campaign begin? Presumably first within the Lib Dems, and then seeing if it gets traction. So the first indication may be whether the Lib Dems go straight to a rejoin position (even if fudged as negotiate and referendum) or whether they sit tight and see if there's any public support first.
You sound like IOS complaining to Mike when I used a picture of Ed Miliband eating a bacon sarnie in a thread header.
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/break-the-mould
Also "rejoin on worse terms" makes a very significant difference. Without the current opt outs and given a few more decades of deeper EU integration it will be very clear that the vote is one on joining a political union not just a trading bloc. Couple that with the general bias of undecided referendum voters towards no change, the addition of new voters to the pool who predate the Brexit controversy and whose outlook and self definition may differ from the current wave of millennials (who are on voting surveys very loved up with Europe at the moment, though very few of them speak other European languages or have lived and worked elsewhere in the EU, which makes them quite unlike their continental European-identifying counterparts - the next generation of netizens may well self-perceive as "citizens of the world" but have an anglospheric slant and not necessary see themselves as deprived of their EU birthright) and the fact that global growth and trading patterns and restructuring of a post-Brexit economy will mean the Rejoin Bonus may be disappointingly thin economically as the EU diminishes in relative importance as a trade partner. I'm not sure the swing to rejoin is a ticking timebomb under Leavers' noses and it may need to put serious momentum together to come off.
The Tories should not panic about collapse in Inner London. The Republicans can win national majorities despite being utterly trounced in inner cities in the US.
Remoaners (that tiny tiny minority of Remainers who wont accept the democratic vote of 2016) constantly whinge about being called Remoaners, yet they hurl around words like "fascist" to describe leavers. Such hypocrisy.
Articles by Remoaners headed by big purple posters of UKIP as if all leavers were fully paid up UKIPPers, and not drawn from across the political spectrum from right to left, is tabloidism at its worst.
The question that Remoaners should really be asking is this:
Why, if the leader of the opposition is such a great campaigner, did he not campaign furiously for the Remain cause? Why did he go on holiday during the referendum campaign?
Why did he not to attend a single major TV debate on the BBC or ITV during the campaign?
Why was Jeremy Corbyn's signature missing from the joint Labour leaders press statement in favour of Remain?
Why did he vote against every EU treaty, including the ones establishing the EU and the Single Market in the House of Commons for 30 years?
Brexit is the price that Remainers pay for having Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party.
When the history books are written, they will marvel at those blind enough not to see that.
The people have spoke and it must be enacted.
My only concern is that it is going to be enacted badly, which will make rejoining the EU, replete with things like the Euro, the attractive option.
I'm not keen on having the Euro as my currency.
If only you'd get this outraged when people like Max starts using the word traitors at Remainers.
(Wasn’t there a scandal in Fetmany where someone had filletted the Stasi archives)
I'm not sure which Leavers Alastair is referring to. The cabinet members? Or Leavers more generally?
My view is simple, we voted to leave, very narrowly. That merits a Gentle Brexit (or perhaps, I Can't Believe It's Not EU Membership). Campaigning to overturn the decision is fine; democracy isn't like a frock to be taken on and off when it suits. Similarly, I'm sure a party will make rejoining a manifesto commitment sometime in the 20s. Also fine.
As I said earlier, if we ever do invoke article 49, it will be with our eyes wide open to the fact that we're joining a Federal state. It's the fundamental dishonesty poorly concealed via Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam and Lisbon that has driven the UK up an evolutionary cul de sac.
I think Brexit helps the EU in its endeavour to make the Euro a practical rather than political project. Perhaps that will make it more attractive to a future UK electorate.
In the mean time, I shall continue to be politeness itself with everyone I meet as I go about my business, remainer, brexiteer, plucky Brit or sturdy Johnny Foreigner.
Apart from the people who run that bus. They're all lying c*nts.
Not a good omen.
She's only really been good for the ghost of Sir Anthony Eden who now goes round saying 'See, I'm no longer the worst'
I think the terms matter quite a lot actually. Cameron attempted a renegotiation and it was an utter damp squib. How many voters were lost when they realised the current terms were the best we could expect to have? If Cameron had managed something more substantial and the EU as a whole had realised they needed a restructuring that recognised and protected states only seeking to participate in trade without taking on the full federalist project, perhaps some kind of formal associate membership or similar, I don't believe Leave would have won.
is Bath - North East Somerset the only other example of this?
The York Outer/Central change is a 24.7% 'swing'. Croydon South/North is 36.5 - so nowhere near really.
The Lab/Tory difference gap between Bath and North East Somerset is only 1.1%...
What rubbish, I for one don't want Corbyn as leader of Labour and do not wish to have Brexit as the price I must pay for it.
Neil was doing perfectly fine on his own.
That makes for a "swing" of 41.1% between adjacent seats.
It’s the fact that she is so nervous....her voice wobbles, her eyes resemble those of a cat that’s just stumbled on a Rottweiler, and she seems always on the point of hysteria. It must be painful being in her head during these moments because she is clearly trying to suppress a panic attack. Brown was similarly very uncomfortable under the spotlight.
I was once doing a conference presentation and dried up out of nowhere........it was terrifying. I wandered into the audience, grabbed a programme from a woman in the front row who thought I was bonkers, and re-gained my composure, all quite seamlessly.
A PM must want to be a frontman...Blair, Cameron thrived......Trump thrives.....Macron thrives....Merkel looks as cool as ice..... I really struggle why May decided to put herself through it all psychologically. As a type I diabetic as well, how many healthy years has she potentially got left, and how many of these is she putting at risk through acute anxiety?
Barbara Streisand struggled with anxiety and stage fright all her career.
May’s election campaign where she avoided any kind of spotlight was astonishing in hindsight....and will never be repeated by any political party....
I though the whole U non-U debate ended in the middle of last century...
Are you related to the Mitfords ?
Edit: Or Hove instead of Brighton Pavilion if you want genuine Lab/Con rather than Con/non-Con
BTW a very good article Mr Meeks, as always......
I’m nursing an atrocious hangover after hooking up with a group of Albanian lorry drivers in the Florence suburbs....we watched the football together. Jesus they can drink and they are so generous....they even picked the tab for my food, and offered me a lift back which I declined obviously.
I’m randomly saying this on the basis of a problem shared.......
It's revealing that some Eurosceptics are still bemoaning the mistakes of the Remain campaign.
It's the wrecking the country by leaving the EU too quickly that puts me off.
Leicester East and Rutland & Melton also has a "swing" of 41.45%.