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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for more of this in the next 13 months

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited February 22 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for more of this in the next 13 months

I’m sure that this week’s tour of Britain by the anti Brexit bus, featured above, will bring some comfort to those who believe that leaving the EU is wrong and want to stop it.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867
    £2bn a week? I think that's the hit to the economy if pineapple pizzas were banned.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,310

    TGOHF said:

    We were told on here and elsewhere time and time again that juvenile attacks on Gordon Brown wouldn’t work and that he was a titan of good governance and integrity. All the way up until he was smashed at the election.

    Corbyn starting from a far lower base - these blows are cumulative.

    I don't believe the juvenile attacks did work. What worked was him being in charge when the financial crash came and the degree to which the public saw him as being responsible for our poor state of readiness. He also suffered from his personality which was seen to be clunking and dour in comparison to Cameron. I don't really see that any of the more specific personal attacks on him worked very well at all.
    Fpt:
    My sense at the time was that the juvenile attacks on Ed Miliband did work.
    I wonder if it’s because his policy offer wasn’t bold enough to get people’s attention - so people focused on the silly stuff.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Second, like Remain. No matter how much they’d like to think they won.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,310
    On topic - It wouldn’t amaze me if Boris did defect - but surely it would only be after becoming PM. We will have left by then I think.

    If he takes over during the implementation phase I would guess a softer Brexit heavy on the symbolism.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    That the Remain bus got stuck in the narrow London streets yesterday is obviously a metaphor for something.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5418447/Anti-Brexit-battlebus-gets-STUCK-streets-London.html
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,310
    Not a massive surprise - but looks like Trump is back on board with the NRA, calling for teachers to be armed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867
    Sandpit said:

    Second, like Remain. No matter how much they’d like to think they won.

    Remain did worse than I remembered :o :D
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 933
    Sandpit said:

    Second, like Remain. No matter how much they’d like to think they won.

    Delusions of grandeur, like UKIP ;)

    I can't see this kind of thing making a huge difference, but the small swings in the middle are the thing that makes the difference and a strong campaign could affect that.

    But would a small swing in public opinion shift the direction of Brexit?

    I'm not sure, maybe but far from convinced.
  • It is perhaps more useful of the bus to remind voters that BREXIT still isnt done and that there is so much to be resolved, as we approach the local elections in May, images such as this and the associated LEAVE splutter in the media are not going to help the Blues one bit
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,825
    OGH

    This isn’t smart at all. Normal people will ignore it / it won’t even register enough to be ignored.

    Politicos won’t change their mind.

    From a stylistic purpose you can’t just clone an icon and change the message (apart from the fact the message itself is too complex) - if anything it’s just going to prompt recall of the original bus

    So overall a resounding fail in my view
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,217
    The outcome of this little struggle in the White House will be interesting:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/20/us/politics/kushner-kelly-security-clearance-.html

    (And the bus is an irrelevance.)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,411
    Charles said:

    OGH

    This isn’t smart at all. Normal people will ignore it / it won’t even register enough to be ignored.

    Politicos won’t change their mind.

    From a stylistic purpose you can’t just clone an icon and change the message (apart from the fact the message itself is too complex) - if anything it’s just going to prompt recall of the original bus

    So overall a resounding fail in my view

    I think Mike has this correct.

    The garish bus is of itself small potatoes in the great swirl of the BREXIT fallout but is more indicative of the unholy mess the government has descended into.

    One might be tempted to contend that the government inspired BREXIT vacuum is simply being filled by a range of messages from all sides except that the closer the nation edges towards the exit door without clear direction then the louder, deeper and more closer to home these messages will have to Joe Public.

    Clearly if the government edges toward a modicum of BREXIT competence then the damage to the Conservative party will be restricted, although it has to be said "BREXIT competence" isn't the tag one would immediately place on the backside of this donkey of a government.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    RobD said:

    £2bn a week? I think that's the hit to the economy if pineapple pizzas were banned.

    That’s a deadful prospect! How can you even think it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Desperate stuff.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,981
    It is a reminder that it won't all be over after we have left. Our relationship with the EU will continue to have a huge impact on UK politics. Brexit won't be over for decades.
  • Will the head of the ONS dispute the figure like he did on the 2016 LEAVE figure? so far, at 6:35am its already generating discussion and analysis on PB.com - just as the backers intended.........
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,494
    edited February 22
    Good morning all.

    Every time anyone mentions the £350m bus, I'm just going to point to this travesty. The campaign claim could at least be anchored to our gross contribution.

    Whereas this figure is the end point of a fifteen year projection from a single economic model under a single scenario which is highly unlikely to be realised. It's not even good enough to be called a lie.

    I do like the Freudian element to it though; they clearly think that Leavers are so thick they don't know what a 'billion' is. Like the Bourbons, the Chukkas of this world have forgotten nothing and learned nothing.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,825

    Will the head of the ONS dispute the figure like he did on the 2016 LEAVE figure? so far, at 6:35am its already generating discussion and analysis on PB.com - just as the backers intended.........

    If that was their objective they really are idiots. Analysis and discussion on pb.com is meaningless in the greater scheme of things
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,981
    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    Every time anyone mentions the £350m bus, I'm just going to point to this travesty. The campaign claim could at least be anchored to our gross contribution.

    Whereas this figure is the end point of a fifteen year projection from a single economic model under a single scenario which is highly unlikely to be realised. It's not even good enough to be called a lie.

    I do like the Freudian element to it though; they clearly think that Leavers are so thick they don't know what a 'billion' is. Like the Bourbons, the Chukkas of this world have forgotten nothing and learned nothing.

    I think the logic of the bus is as long as it is being talked about it is doing its job. You are playing your part well.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,494

    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    Every time anyone mentions the £350m bus, I'm just going to point to this travesty. The campaign claim could at least be anchored to our gross contribution.

    Whereas this figure is the end point of a fifteen year projection from a single economic model under a single scenario which is highly unlikely to be realised. It's not even good enough to be called a lie.

    I do like the Freudian element to it though; they clearly think that Leavers are so thick they don't know what a 'billion' is. Like the Bourbons, the Chukkas of this world have forgotten nothing and learned nothing.

    I think the logic of the bus is as long as it is being talked about it is doing its job. You are playing your part well.
    Yes, yes, of course, it's all going according to plan, you big city types are far too cunning for this country girl *backs aways slowly*.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,411
    Charles said:

    Will the head of the ONS dispute the figure like he did on the 2016 LEAVE figure? so far, at 6:35am its already generating discussion and analysis on PB.com - just as the backers intended.........

    If that was their objective they really are idiots. Analysis and discussion on pb.com is meaningless in the greater scheme of things
    How very dare you Madam ....

    PBers have been exiled to ConHome for much lesser crimes against PBdom ....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    Let's see what the Vox pops are like from Worcester. A reasonably typical place both in terms of lab Tory and leave remain sentiment
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,981
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    Every time anyone mentions the £350m bus, I'm just going to point to this travesty. The campaign claim could at least be anchored to our gross contribution.

    Whereas this figure is the end point of a fifteen year projection from a single economic model under a single scenario which is highly unlikely to be realised. It's not even good enough to be called a lie.

    I do like the Freudian element to it though; they clearly think that Leavers are so thick they don't know what a 'billion' is. Like the Bourbons, the Chukkas of this world have forgotten nothing and learned nothing.

    I think the logic of the bus is as long as it is being talked about it is doing its job. You are playing your part well.
    Yes, yes, of course, it's all going according to plan, you big city types are far too cunning for this country girl *backs aways slowly*.
    Not my bus.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,825
    JackW said:

    Charles said:

    Will the head of the ONS dispute the figure like he did on the 2016 LEAVE figure? so far, at 6:35am its already generating discussion and analysis on PB.com - just as the backers intended.........

    If that was their objective they really are idiots. Analysis and discussion on pb.com is meaningless in the greater scheme of things
    How very dare you Madam ....

    PBers have been exiled to ConHome for much lesser crimes against PBdom ....
    Your substantive point is worth discussion

    It’s disspiritibg how many people spent so much energy trying to frustrate the democratic expression in the referendum and, in so doing, undermined the country’s negotiating position
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244
    rkrkrk said:

    Not a massive surprise - but looks like Trump is back on board with the NRA, calling for teachers to be armed.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    I haven't seen the bus on the TV news.

    I have seen Damon Albarn on both Sky and the BBC. Yeah, more of him please.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867
    Scott_P said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Not a massive surprise - but looks like Trump is back on board with the NRA, calling for teachers to be armed.

    twitter.com/barristersecret/status/966565730631213056
    Isn't he saying they should be trained?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,981
    Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819
    The economic modelling on the impact of banning of pineapple on pizza is quite robust compared to this nonsense. I know that our metropolitan elite are really not used to losing but it really is time that they grew up a bit and accepted the result. A campaign bus 20 months after they lost is beyond childish, its just stupid.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,825

    Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.

    Their operational HQ has been in Holland for 70 years (the “Uni” bit of Uni-Lever)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244
    RobD said:

    Isn't he saying they should be trained?

    Because nobody trained in the use of guns has ever shot anyone by mistake...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867

    Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.

    Really? I thought it was a Dutch company anyway?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244
    Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke, the Remain-supporting Tory MPs, have been inspiring a rebellion to keep Britain in the customs union by tabling amendments to the Taxation (Cross-Border Trade) Bill, also known as the customs bill or trade bill.

    Ministers have now decided to delay Commons votes on the issue for up to two months amid fears that they could result in defeats that jeopardise Brexit negotiations.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/corbyn-to-deliver-labours-brexit-road-map-tv26th8b2
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    DavidL said:

    The economic modelling on the impact of banning of pineapple on pizza is quite robust compared to this nonsense. I know that our metropolitan elite are really not used to losing but it really is time that they grew up a bit and accepted the result. A campaign bus 20 months after they lost is beyond childish, its just stupid.

    I refuse to be told off for bitching about a narrow defeat by people for whom a more substantial one festered for over 40 years.

    Having said that, since no-one, I’m sure, believes any statistics from either side any more sending a large bus round the street with, probably, questionable statements on the side only adds to the congestion, both on the ground and mentally.
  • The most significant recent development on the Brexit front is Jeremy Corbyn focusing on it in PMQs yesterday - and actually putting the PM on the spot. Corbyn never asks questions about Brexit. But now he has. Hmmm. That tells me something is happening inside the Labour party. Watch this space.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,494
    RobD said:

    Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.

    Really? I thought it was a Dutch company anyway?
    Was my customer back in the 90s/early noughties. They're Anglo-Dutch - Lever Brothers of Port Sunlight fame merged with a Dutch margarine company. They were debating whether to settle for a single HQ when I was selling to them - it's a really cumbersome operation (though I used to prefer going to Blackfriars, Rotterdam is a bit shit).

    I think now, with a Dutch CEO and chairman, they may very well plump for Rotterdam, perhaps with the fig leaf of keeping their listing here.
  • Charles said:

    Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.

    Their operational HQ has been in Holland for 70 years (the “Uni” bit of Uni-Lever)

    So another stupid, unnecessary mistake by the government to try to get them to stay?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    Scott_P said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Not a massive surprise - but looks like Trump is back on board with the NRA, calling for teachers to be armed.

    Arm teachers, and the next schoolshooter takes a kid as a human shield - and starts shooting from behind them. Is the now armed teacher expected to risk killing the shield? No. Progress? Nil....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819
    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    On the bus, we are STILL talking about how much impact the original had.

    And how wanky the imitation looks.

    Was that the aim?
  • Charles said:

    JackW said:

    Charles said:

    Will the head of the ONS dispute the figure like he did on the 2016 LEAVE figure? so far, at 6:35am its already generating discussion and analysis on PB.com - just as the backers intended.........

    If that was their objective they really are idiots. Analysis and discussion on pb.com is meaningless in the greater scheme of things
    How very dare you Madam ....

    PBers have been exiled to ConHome for much lesser crimes against PBdom ....
    Your substantive point is worth discussion

    It’s disspiritibg how many people spent so much energy trying to frustrate the democratic expression in the referendum and, in so doing, undermined the country’s negotiating position

    What negotiating position? The government has not yet decided one. That’s no-one’s fault but the government’s.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    Helluva finish in the ice hockey....
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,494

    Charles said:

    Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.

    Their operational HQ has been in Holland for 70 years (the “Uni” bit of Uni-Lever)

    So another stupid, unnecessary mistake by the government to try to get them to stay?

    Not really, though of course it's going to be seen through the prism of Brexit.

    Unilever are an important company (a good old fashioned conglomerate). More worrying would be if they moved their research facilities from Colworth and Port Sunlight.

    If they do move, Unilever House would be a fantastic development opportunity, it's truly beautiful.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,551

    Desperate stuff.

    As a general rule when someone describes a political move as "desperate" it means in fact "effective"
  • DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.

    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    Desperate stuff.

    As a general rule when someone describes a political move as "desperate" it means in fact "effective"
    Yeah, you got me.

    Brexit is over.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819

    DavidL said:

    The economic modelling on the impact of banning of pineapple on pizza is quite robust compared to this nonsense. I know that our metropolitan elite are really not used to losing but it really is time that they grew up a bit and accepted the result. A campaign bus 20 months after they lost is beyond childish, its just stupid.

    I refuse to be told off for bitching about a narrow defeat by people for whom a more substantial one festered for over 40 years.

    Having said that, since no-one, I’m sure, believes any statistics from either side any more sending a large bus round the street with, probably, questionable statements on the side only adds to the congestion, both on the ground and mentally.
    I have consistently said that the closeness of the result means that the government should be aiming for a soft Brexit, retaining as many as possible of the benefits of the EU whilst actually leaving. In my reading of the situation May is doing exactly that and Boris is backing her in that respect.

    Of course some of the more radical leavers are a bit disappointed by this and are making May's life difficult but so far their impact on the negotiations seems to have been negligible. The EU seem to have finally accepted that we mean it (despite the false hope given to them by our remainers) and now want a good deal with minimal disruption. As do we of course.

    Your congestion point is well made.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,148
    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
  • I suspect the bigger news is Mrs May trying to bounce her cabinet and JRM’s declaration of war on Mrs May.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,494

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    The revolution will devour itself. Here is Brexit a supporting journo on the ERG letter

    What is most concerning about the letter — concerning for Leavers like me, or Remainers, or anyone who wants Britain to come through Brexit in one piece — is that the text is poorly thought through and recklessly stupid.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/rees-mogg-and-friends-are-playing-with-fire-x32l2r38z
  • FishingFishing Posts: 312
    I don't think the bus is a smart tactic. I have seen no evidence that the Leave bus in the campaign affected the polling or the end result at all, and then there was an actual campaign. Still, if it makes Blair, Clegg et al feel like there is a chance, and diverts them from more effective efforts to thwart democracy, then fair enough.

    Off topic, I see the Australians are going to ask for reciprocal working rights, so hopefully CANZUK will actually happen:

    https://www.change.org/p/2988816/u/22417930?utm_medium=email&utm_source=petition_update&utm_campaign=261707&sfmc_tk=E/GpZ/AQe9BzPP3/r0R6zzgyoaskqHulx9FsDGvKt8FhBoNHWwGO2qqG2mu+Vl0h&j=261707&sfmc_sub=599272621&l=32_HTML&u=47482955&mid=7259882&jb=305
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.

    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

    Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresults

    The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,148
    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has the distrust of half the population and the active opposition of a third of the population, with both of those shares looking to be growing over time rather than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.

    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

    Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresults

    The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
    Yeah yeahbut but we haven’t left yet, and in 15 years Britain will be a 3rd world country taking rules from Europe and shorn of all status in the world. Or something.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,148
    Scott_P said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    The revolution will devour itself. Here is Brexit a supporting journo on the ERG letter

    What is most concerning about the letter — concerning for Leavers like me, or Remainers, or anyone who wants Britain to come through Brexit in one piece — is that the text is poorly thought through and recklessly stupid.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/rees-mogg-and-friends-are-playing-with-fire-x32l2r38z
    A very rare example of a moderate Leaver dissociating himself from the extremists.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,981
    edited February 22
    Fishing said:

    I don't think the bus is a smart tactic. I have seen no evidence that the Leave bus in the campaign affected the polling or the end result at all, and then there was an actual campaign. Still, if it makes Blair, Clegg et al feel like there is a chance, and diverts them from more effective efforts to thwart democracy, then fair enough.

    Off topic, I see the Australians are going to ask for reciprocal working rights, so hopefully CANZUK will actually happen:

    https://www.change.org/p/2988816/u/22417930?utm_medium=email&utm_source=petition_update&utm_campaign=261707&sfmc_tk=E/GpZ/AQe9BzPP3/r0R6zzgyoaskqHulx9FsDGvKt8FhBoNHWwGO2qqG2mu+Vl0h&j=261707&sfmc_sub=599272621&l=32_HTML&u=47482955&mid=7259882&jb=305

    So you are saying that non-EU trade deals are going to come with freedom of movement strings attached? Not sure that's what leave supporters want to hear.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,865
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.

    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

    Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresults

    The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
    Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,986
    JackW said:

    Charles said:

    OGH

    This isn’t smart at all. Normal people will ignore it / it won’t even register enough to be ignored.

    Politicos won’t change their mind.

    From a stylistic purpose you can’t just clone an icon and change the message (apart from the fact the message itself is too complex) - if anything it’s just going to prompt recall of the original bus

    So overall a resounding fail in my view

    I think Mike has this correct.

    The garish bus is of itself small potatoes in the great swirl of the BREXIT fallout but is more indicative of the unholy mess the government has descended into.

    One might be tempted to contend that the government inspired BREXIT vacuum is simply being filled by a range of messages from all sides except that the closer the nation edges towards the exit door without clear direction then the louder, deeper and more closer to home these messages will have to Joe Public.

    Clearly if the government edges toward a modicum of BREXIT competence then the damage to the Conservative party will be restricted, although it has to be said "BREXIT competence" isn't the tag one would immediately place on the backside of this donkey of a government.
    Yes, indeed the revived Brexit Bus is working well. The point of a publicity stunt is to get people talking. The "is it worth it?" tagline plays on both economic concerns, but also on the Brexit fatigue affecting even the political obsessives on here. Money well spent.

    Chucking rotten tomatoes from the cheap seats at our political masters is all part of participatory democracy. There is no reason at all for Remainers to "get behind" a policy mistake. Undermining the government at every turn is fair game. I note that the bus itinerary seems to be targetting places with Local elections pending.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 312



    So you are saying that non-EU trade deals are going to come with freedom of movement strings attached? Not sure that's what leave supporters want to hear.

    That one will. And hopefully Canada and New Zealand and maybe the United States will too. Don't know about the others.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,494

    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has the distrust of half the population and the active opposition of a third of the population, with both of those shares looking to be growing over time rather than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.
    It's hard to get my point across, I suppose. I don't think that democracy stopped in June 2016. I agree with David that a 52:48 indicates that the country would prefer, if I can anthropomorphise it, a gentle Brexit.

    This indicates to me that Mogg and his fellow travellers are pissing into the wind. I dislike Ultras on both sides of the argument.

    I would be disappointed if Brexit were overturned in some fashion, but as long as it is done in a democratic fashion, that is more important. People might view Brexit as a joy or a calamity, but what's really important to the long term health of this country is that we respect our democracy and our institutions.

    In terms of reconciliation, I'm not sure I even understand what's expected of individuals like me I expect people to do as they please; campaign, demonstrate, argue, move on, whatever they wish. I'll respect whatever they decide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,620
    edited February 22
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.

    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

    Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresults

    The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.

    Yep - it’s not a happy picture. Low to non-existent growth in areas like plant and machinery, ICT, R&D, etc - the stuff that will underpin our competiveness in five to ten years’ time.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,986

    Fishing said:

    I don't think the bus is a smart tactic. I have seen no evidence that the Leave bus in the campaign affected the polling or the end result at all, and then there was an actual campaign. Still, if it makes Blair, Clegg et al feel like there is a chance, and diverts them from more effective efforts to thwart democracy, then fair enough.

    Off topic, I see the Australians are going to ask for reciprocal working rights, so hopefully CANZUK will actually happen:

    https://www.change.org/p/2988816/u/22417930?utm_medium=email&utm_source=petition_update&utm_campaign=261707&sfmc_tk=E/GpZ/AQe9BzPP3/r0R6zzgyoaskqHulx9FsDGvKt8FhBoNHWwGO2qqG2mu+Vl0h&j=261707&sfmc_sub=599272621&l=32_HTML&u=47482955&mid=7259882&jb=305

    So you are saying that non-EU trade deals are going to come with freedom of movement strings attached? Not sure that's what leave supporters want to hear.
    Freedom of movement to Australasia would be vey popular, it would do wonders for net emigration!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    edited February 22
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.

    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

    Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresults

    The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
    I’m inclined to agree with your penultimate line; were I still ‘in business’ and not smugly retirerd I would by now be saying that, having trod water for some considerable time, if I didn’t invest in some sensible way..... plant, technology and so on..... I would be in danger of falling seriously behind competitors. And, whether I liked it or not, looks like some form of Brexit is going to happen, and better to be a bit ahead of the game rather than running to catch afterwards.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.

    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

    Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresults

    The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
    Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.
    You are misreading the chart. If you go to the end of figure 4 you get GFCF since 2008. Germany is top with 111.2, we are second with 109.3, the US is close behind on 109, everyone else is well back. The graph also shows that there is no evidence at all of any deterioration in our performance since 2016.

    We have now had 8 quarters in a row of increased GFCF, an unusually long and stable trend resulting in the graph at figure 3. Some of these increases have been quite modest but the startling thing is the lack of volatility since the vote, not the reverse.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.

    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

    Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresults

    The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
    I’m inclined to agree with your penultimate line; were I still ‘in business’ and not smugly retirerd I would by now be saying that, having trod water for some considerable time, if I didn’t invest in some sensible way..... plant, technology and so on..... I would be in danger of falling seriously behind competitors. And, whether I liked it or not, looks like some form of Brexit is going to happen, and better to be a bit ahead of the game rather than running to catch afterwards.

    But that’s exactly what’s not happening on anything like the scale we need, despite strong growth in the global economy and a very benign borrowing environment.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,148
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has the distrust of half the population and the active opposition of a third of the population, with both of those shares looking to be growing over time rather than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.
    It's hard to get my point across, I suppose. I don't think that democracy stopped in June 2016. I agree with David that a 52:48 indicates that the country would prefer, if I can anthropomorphise it, a gentle Brexit.

    This indicates to me that Mogg and his fellow travellers are pissing into the wind. I dislike Ultras on both sides of the argument.

    I would be disappointed if Brexit were overturned in some fashion, but as long as it is done in a democratic fashion, that is more important. People might view Brexit as a joy or a calamity, but what's really important to the long term health of this country is that we respect our democracy and our institutions.

    In terms of reconciliation, I'm not sure I even understand what's expected of individuals like me I expect people to do as they please; campaign, demonstrate, argue, move on, whatever they wish. I'll respect whatever they decide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.
    The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has the distrust of half the population and the active opposition of a third of the population, with both of those shares looking to be growing over time rather than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.
    It's hard to get my point across, I suppose. I don't think that democracy stopped in June 2016. I agree with David that a 52:48 indicates that the country would prefer, if I can anthropomorphise it, a gentle Brexit.

    This indicates to me that Mogg and his fellow travellers are pissing into the wind. I dislike Ultras on both sides of the argument.

    I would be disappointed if Brexit were overturned in some fashion, but as long as it is done in a democratic fashion, that is more important. People might view Brexit as a joy or a calamity, but what's really important to the long term health of this country is that we respect our democracy and our institutions.

    In terms of reconciliation, I'm not sure I even understand what's expected of individuals like me I expect people to do as they please; campaign, demonstrate, argue, move on, whatever they wish. I'll respect whatever they decide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.
    The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.
    You are, if I may say so, not helping.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,217

    DavidL said:

    The economic modelling on the impact of banning of pineapple on pizza is quite robust compared to this nonsense. I know that our metropolitan elite are really not used to losing but it really is time that they grew up a bit and accepted the result. A campaign bus 20 months after they lost is beyond childish, its just stupid.

    I refuse to be told off for bitching about a narrow defeat by people for whom a more substantial one festered for over 40 years...
    Absolutely.

    There appears to be a significant strain of Leaver belief which holds that democratic debate over Europe ceased with the referendum.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,494

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has the distrust of half the population and the active opposition of a third of the population, with both of those shares looking to be growing over time rather than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.
    It's hard to get my point across, I suppose. I don't think that democracy stopped in June 2016. I agree with David that a 52:48 indicates that the country would prefer, if I can anthropomorphise it, a gentle Brexit.

    This indicates to me that Mogg and his fellow travellers are pissing into the wind. I dislike Ultras on both sides of the argument.

    I would be disappointed if Brexit were overturned in some fashion, but as long as it is done in a democratic fashion, that is more important. People might view Brexit as a joy or a calamity, but what's really important to the long term health of this country is that we respect our democracy and our institutions.

    In terms of reconciliation, I'm not sure I even understand what's expected of individuals like me I expect people to do as they please; campaign, demonstrate, argue, move on, whatever they wish. I'll respect whatever they decide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.
    The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.
    I'll put you down as a 'maybe' then.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,647

    Scott_P said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    The revolution will devour itself. Here is Brexit a supporting journo on the ERG letter

    What is most concerning about the letter — concerning for Leavers like me, or Remainers, or anyone who wants Britain to come through Brexit in one piece — is that the text is poorly thought through and recklessly stupid.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/rees-mogg-and-friends-are-playing-with-fire-x32l2r38z
    A very rare example of a moderate Leaver dissociating himself from the extremists.
    Not to mention the Flexcit crew - the Norths and Norgrove - who blog or tweet each day on the arrant idiocy of the government’s approach.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,436
    O/T

    "Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244

    The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.

    Interesting exchange with Dan Hannan yesterday, the epitome of the Brexiteer who wants to pretend he wasn't part of the same campaign

    @DanielJHannan: Before the referendum, Eurosceptics were patronised as quaint, eccentric or nostalgic, but not illegitimate. Overnight, they somehow became hateful racists. Their crime? Winning.

    @eugemeade: @DanielJHannan When Farage stood in front of the poster no one thought 'how quaint, how eccentric, how nostalgic'. Everyone thought 'hateful racist'
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.

    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

    Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresults

    The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
    I’m inclined to agree with your penultimate line; were I still ‘in business’ and not smugly retirerd I would by now be saying that, having trod water for some considerable time, if I didn’t invest in some sensible way..... plant, technology and so on..... I would be in danger of falling seriously behind competitors. And, whether I liked it or not, looks like some form of Brexit is going to happen, and better to be a bit ahead of the game rather than running to catch afterwards.

    But that’s exactly what’s not happening on anything like the scale we need, despite strong growth in the global economy and a very benign borrowing environment.

    It may well not be happening on the scale we need, but it is happening.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA

    Is socialism the answer to our obesity problem?

    I wonder if Corbyn still believes that they are an inspiration for us?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Mercedes/Ferrari unveil their cars today, and testing starts on the 26th. Mood music, of course, means more than the headline times.

    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/a-surprise-video-why-you-shouldnt-take.html
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,494
    Immigration figures out today, time to get my xenephobe on.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA

    Not proper socialism.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,494

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA

    Not proper socialism.
    Not socialist enough. We need to wait for Venezula 2 : Socialist Harder. The Christmas hit of 2025.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,680
    edited February 22

    The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.

    Maybe it died when Remainer elites decided to throw themselves into campaigns for no Brexit or BINO (i.e. continued SM/CU membership). If they'd rallied behind something like EFTA from day one and tried to work with softer Leavers to get that, who knows.

    Leave won fair and square. Elitist attempts to reverse or render meaningless that victory have strengthened the more extreme Leavers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just .
    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has the distrust of half the population and the active opposition of a third of the population, with both of those shares looking to be growing over time rather than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.
    In terms of reconciliation, I'm not sure I even understand what's expected of individuals like me I expect people to do as they please; campaign, demonstrate, argue, move on, whatever they wish. I'll respect whatever they decide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.
    The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.
    I'll put you down as a 'maybe' then.
    Moderate Leavers didn't do any such thing. But I've given up trying to debate on this now. Some battles you just can't win.

    This thread is written in hope more than fact. There will be a position on transition that goes forward to the European Council in March, and is agreed. The heads of terms for the new trade deal will follow, after a few ups and downs, by the Summer. And life will go on.

    Too many Remainers are falling into a trap of taking a very gentle swing in right/wrong on the Brexit vote over the last 20 months, and simply extrapolating that far into the future, balancing against demographics trends, and assuming time wins their case for them.

    Simplistic, and wrong.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,310

    The most significant recent development on the Brexit front is Jeremy Corbyn focusing on it in PMQs yesterday - and actually putting the PM on the spot. Corbyn never asks questions about Brexit. But now he has. Hmmm. That tells me something is happening inside the Labour party. Watch this space.

    Guardian and Independent both very critical of his questioning.
    I hope Labour set out a position on Brexit soon.

    My preference would be as soft a Brexit as possible - but I think we do have to leave since we had the referendum vote and opinion hasn’t changed.

    id be delighted if they made some reference to rejoining eg - as the result is so close it’s conceivable that the issue isn’t settled (ref. Farage and Hanan when they thought they hadn’t lost)
    And therefore govt should seek to agree some kind is speedy special exemption re entry process so we are prepared if the public changes its mind. That’s a total long shot though!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.

    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

    Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresults

    The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
    I’m inclined to agree with your penultimate line; were I still ‘in business’ and not smugly retirerd I would by now be saying that, having trod water for some considerable time, if I didn’t invest in some sensible way..... plant, technology and so on..... I would be in danger of falling seriously behind competitors. And, whether I liked it or not, looks like some form of Brexit is going to happen, and better to be a bit ahead of the game rather than running to catch afterwards.

    But that’s exactly what’s not happening on anything like the scale we need, despite strong growth in the global economy and a very benign borrowing environment.

    It may well not be happening on the scale we need, but it is happening.
    The main reason our figures are not even better is that there has been a significant drop in the number of new cars being bought while we work out what to do about diesels. If you look at the breakdown transport is down 15%. And last year was the first year in about 8 that we did not have increased car production.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,436

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA

    Not proper socialism.
    What do you mean?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,865
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.

    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

    Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresults

    The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
    Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.
    You are misreading the chart. If you go to the end of figure 4 you get GFCF since 2008. Germany is top with 111.2, we are second with 109.3, the US is close behind on 109, everyone else is well back. The graph also shows that there is no evidence at all of any deterioration in our performance since 2016.

    We have now had 8 quarters in a row of increased GFCF, an unusually long and stable trend resulting in the graph at figure 3. Some of these increases have been quite modest but the startling thing is the lack of volatility since the vote, not the reverse.
    I am comparing pre and post referendum, which is the only sensible comparison to make in a Brexit context. France and Germany improved by five percentage points over this period; we improved by two points. Investment is a sticky thing to measure, so arguably a one year period is a little meaningless, but at least we didn't go backwards.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    edited February 22
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:
    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

    Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresults

    The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
    I’m inclined to agree with your penultimate line; were I still ‘in business’ and not smugly retirerd I would by now be saying that, having trod water for some considerable time, if I didn’t invest in some sensible way..... plant, technology and so on..... I would be in danger of falling seriously behind competitors. And, whether I liked it or not, looks like some form of Brexit is going to happen, and better to be a bit ahead of the game rather than running to catch afterwards.

    But that’s exactly what’s not happening on anything like the scale we need, despite strong growth in the global economy and a very benign borrowing environment.

    It may well not be happening on the scale we need, but it is happening.
    The main reason our figures are not even better is that there has been a significant drop in the number of new cars being bought while we work out what to do about diesels. If you look at the breakdown transport is down 15%. And last year was the first year in about 8 that we did not have increased car production.
    I’d imagine that the average price of cars made in the UK went up substantially last year. As the mass market slowed down, the likes of Rolls Royce, Aston Martin, Bentley, Lotus and McLaren all launched new models and can’t make enough of them to satisfy demand.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750
    edited February 22
    The only thing that would really make a difference is polls showing big leads for Remain of at least 10%+ and even that would not guarantee a Remain win in a second EU referendum.

    A defection is unlikely to be enough, after all the movement of Quentin Davies from the Tories to Labour when Brown became PM was not enough to win Brown the 2010 general election was it. Nor did defections from Labour and the Tories in the early 1980s to the SDP see the SDP win the 1983 general election
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,224

    Scott_P said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Not a massive surprise - but looks like Trump is back on board with the NRA, calling for teachers to be armed.

    twitter.com/barristersecret/status/966565730631213056
    Arm teachers, and the next schoolshooter takes a kid as a human shield - and starts shooting from behind them. Is the now armed teacher expected to risk killing the shield? No. Progress? Nil....
    Arm the teachers and the next schoolshooter does not have to acquire weapons and bring them in. The weapons will already be there - just whack the teacher and take their weapon.

    Also, how long until some teacher shoots another teacher or pupil in a row / fight / argument?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750
    edited February 22

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has nces.
    It's hard to get my point across, I suppose. I don't think that democracy stopped in June 2016. I agree with David that a 52:48 indicates that the country would prefer, if I can anthropomorphise it, a gentle Brexit.

    This indicates to me that Mogg and his fellow travellers are pissing into the wind. I dislike Ultras on both sides of the argument.

    I would be disappointed if Brexit were overturned in some fashion, but as long as it is done in a democratic fashion, that is more important. People might view Brexit as a joy or a calamity, but what's really important to the long term health of this country is that we respect our democracy and our institutions.

    In terms cide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.
    The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.
    It was immigration which got Leave over 50%, a Brexit vote which does nothing to control immigration is a pointless vote and will lead to a far right or UKIP resurgence. Though of course it was largely Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 which was responsible for the Leave victory
  • John_M said:

    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.

    To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
    John_M said:

    It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.

    Tnet.
    er than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.


    ve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.
    The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.
    I guess the problem is that on the referendum voting slip, there was only a simple, binary question. 33.6 million people voted Remain or Leave for 33.6 million different reasons. Unfortunately, there are a lot of complete arseholes on all sides of the equation. I'm not going to "own" anything I don't agree with, just because someone voted the same way as i did, just I don't expect any moderate Remain voter to "own" anything said by the likes of The New European or other proponents of the "UK IS DOOMED!!!!" gang. There doesn't seem to be any sight of reconciliation from any of the Leave or Remain Extremists, so why worry about it?
    If Brexit happens, the world will still turn. If it doesn't happen, through a democratic process, the world will still turn. If Brexit gets hijacked by any of the Remain or Leave extreme strains, the world might wobble a bit, but it'll even out.
    As the Chief Architect of the whole farce used to say- "Chillax, play some Candy Crush!"
  • On a very different note, you probably saw the news story about two teenage boys being stabbed to death within 24 hours if each other in Camden the other day. The second one - a 17 year-old - was murdered right outside my sister’s flat. Her boyfriend looked out of their front window and saw him lying dead in the street not 10 feet away. Apparently, the body was uncovered for an age. He’s an ex-policemen so has taken it in his stride, but it brings things home to you. Hidden away in affluent, metropolitan North London are these huge estates where young men - many from chaotic, dysfunctional homes - carry knives as a matter of routine and seek to kill each other. It’s going to take a lot of solving.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

    Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...

    Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.

    Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.

    Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresults

    The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
    I’m inclined to agree with your penultimate line; were I still ‘in business’ and not smugly retirerd I would by now be saying that, having trod water for some considerable time, if I didn’t invest in some sensible way..... plant, technology and so on..... I would be in danger of falling seriously behind competitors. And, whether I liked it or not, looks like some form of Brexit is going to happen, and better to be a bit ahead of the game rather than running to catch afterwards.

    But that’s exactly what’s not happening on anything like the scale we need, despite strong growth in the global economy and a very benign borrowing environment.

    It may well not be happening on the scale we need, but it is happening.

    Yes, that’s why I said they are low, not non-existent. The point is that at this stage in the economic cycle they should be much higher. That they’re not will prove problematic further down the line. We should be fixing the roof while the sun is shining, as someone once said. But we’re not.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Mr. Observer, indeed. Is there a head of steam there for more searches?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108

    Scott_P said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Not a massive surprise - but looks like Trump is back on board with the NRA, calling for teachers to be armed.

    twitter.com/barristersecret/status/966565730631213056
    Arm teachers, and the next schoolshooter takes a kid as a human shield - and starts shooting from behind them. Is the now armed teacher expected to risk killing the shield? No. Progress? Nil....
    Arm the teachers and the next schoolshooter does not have to acquire weapons and bring them in. The weapons will already be there - just whack the teacher and take their weapon.

    Also, how long until some teacher shoots another teacher or pupil in a row / fight / argument?
    We're agreed - the idea is as dumb as a brick. Guns and schools don't mix, period.

    Just when it looked as if Trump might just once do the right thing - normal service is resumed.
  • On topic, they’ve got it all wrong.

    These people should be working on a military coup to stop Brexit.

    Get the military in and cite Russian interference and the people will accept it.

    From an article today.

    Russia ‘is a bigger threat to our security than terrorists’

    The threat to Britain from states such as Russia and North Korea is greater than that posed by terrorism, the defence secretary said yesterday, marking a significant shift in security policy.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-is-a-bigger-threat-to-our-security-than-terrorists-5mjrmr58n

    It would help the planning of the coup if Nigel Farage was indicted by Robert Mueller.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,212
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA

    Is socialism the answer to our obesity problem?

    I wonder if Corbyn still believes that they are an inspiration for us?
    Well it is an impressive level of equality, which is what the left believes in. And pretty much all patrimonial capital (Monbiot’s phrase from last night’s IQ debate - he got it from Piketty’s book - and said that tax rates of 83% were good because they destroyed it even if they did not raise revenue) has been destroyed. So why would it not be an inspiration?
  • On topic, they’ve got it all wrong.

    These people should be working on a military coup to stop Brexit.

    Get the military in and cite Russian interference and the people will accept it.

    From an article today.

    Russia ‘is a bigger threat to our security than terrorists’

    The threat to Britain from states such as Russia and North Korea is greater than that posed by terrorism, the defence secretary said yesterday, marking a significant shift in security policy.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-is-a-bigger-threat-to-our-security-than-terrorists-5mjrmr58n

    It would help the planning of the coup if Nigel Farage was indicted by Robert Mueller.

    TSE with his normal disdain for democracy.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,825

    Charles said:

    Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.

    Their operational HQ has been in Holland for 70 years (the “Uni” bit of Uni-Lever)

    So another stupid, unnecessary mistake by the government to try to get them to stay?

    No - worth lobbying for even if they didn’t get it. The Dutch withholding tax changes made it much more likely that it was going to Rotterdam. The potential role of the stichtung is important too.

    But everyone who screams about Brexit should be able to explain whey Relx (Reed Elsevier) chose London over Amsterdam last week.
This discussion has been closed.