I don't think the bus is a smart tactic. I have seen no evidence that the Leave bus in the campaign affected the polling or the end result at all, and then there was an actual campaign. Still, if it makes Blair, Clegg et al feel like there is a chance, and diverts them from more effective efforts to thwart democracy, then fair enough.
Off topic, I see the Australians are going to ask for reciprocal working rights, so hopefully CANZUK will actually happen:
So you are saying that non-EU trade deals are going to come with freedom of movement strings attached? Not sure that's what leave supporters want to hear.
Reciprocal working rights are *not* the same as freedom of movement
As the A50 clock continues to run down, those who have taken shelter in vague obfuscation will be forced to come into the open and reveal what they actually think and want.
Clearly, there's still plenty of delusion out there as witnessed by one contributor on here who revels at the prospect of something called "CANZUK" or Empire 2.0 where we will apparently be able to live and work freely in New Zealand. Live and work yes but own property, no. Perhaps we should have insisted on that as a condition of joining the Single Market.
The coalitions of the parties and the two sides in the debate will be increasingly tested as the course of the negotiations becomes clear. If we are to believe Richard Nabavi, the negotiations are going far better than we could possibly have hoped, the UK will get a fantastic deal and we can go down on our knees and worship Theresa May and vote Conservative in perpetuity as a sign of our gratitude.
Or perhaps not...
Negotiation often entails an absence of information and a prevalence of rumour and so it appears. I don't know the British Government's position beyond we'd like lots of FTAs with anyone and everyone. Maybe but that assumes that's what everyone else wants and I bet it isn't.
Immigration remains as always the elephant in the room and detailed policy on that has been scant in the extreme. Politically, it's the equivalent of you and your partner discussing your sex life in front of your partner's parents - you know it happens, they know it happens but they don't want to know it happens. Nobody talks about it and nobody talks about immigration - the pro-Government spinners claim it's already coming under control but no one believes them.
Now we seem to be heading into a protracted period of Transition where effectively we will be like Norway but without the oil, the fjords and the Sovereign Wealth Fund but still having the EU and its regulations in place. The truth of that may blunt some of the pathetic euphoria which will no doubt be in evidence on 29/3/19.
Of course, it also gives the lie to the economic "lies". In truth, nothing has changed since 23/6/16. I'm convinced many who voted LEAVE thought we would exit on 24/6/16 and a brave new world would begin - that's how it is with elections in this country, the transition is rapid and painless. Leaving the EU hasn't happened yet so we carry on as if nothing had happened and, aided by generally favourable global economic winds, growth continues and the roof hasn't fallen in (apart from a generally favourable devaluation).
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.
You are misreading the chart. If you go to the end of figure 4 you get GFCF since 2008. Germany is top with 111.2, we are second with 109.3, the US is close behind on 109, everyone else is well back. The graph also shows that there is no evidence at all of any deterioration in our performance since 2016.
We have now had 8 quarters in a row of increased GFCF, an unusually long and stable trend resulting in the graph at figure 3. Some of these increases have been quite modest but the startling thing is the lack of volatility since the vote, not the reverse.
I am comparing pre and post referendum, which is the only sensible comparison to make in a Brexit context. France and Germany improved by five percentage points over this period; we improved by two points. Investment is a sticky thing to measure, so arguably a one year period is a little meaningless, but at least we didn't go backwards.
Brexiters obviously struggling with the obvious. The much-derided pre-referendum forecasts (derided by all the PB dolts economists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.
I see labour are slowly but surely going the Merkel route on immigration, first more so called child refugees with parents next will be more Syrian and then the migrant boat people who are landing in Europe in the thousands.
I don't think the bus is a smart tactic. I have seen no evidence that the Leave bus in the campaign affected the polling or the end result at all, and then there was an actual campaign. Still, if it makes Blair, Clegg et al feel like there is a chance, and diverts them from more effective efforts to thwart democracy, then fair enough.
Off topic, I see the Australians are going to ask for reciprocal working rights, so hopefully CANZUK will actually happen:
So you are saying that non-EU trade deals are going to come with freedom of movement strings attached? Not sure that's what leave supporters want to hear.
Reciprocal working rights are *not* the same as freedom of movement
But they are a set of rules, agreed willingly with another party, which mean we don't control our immigration policy.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.
You are misreading the chart. If you go to the end of figure 4 you get GFCF since 2008. Germany is top with 111.2, we are second with 109.3, the US is close behind on 109, everyone else is well back. The graph also shows that there is no evidence at all of any deterioration in our performance since 2016.
We have now had 8 quarters in a row of increased GFCF, an unusually long and stable trend resulting in the graph at figure 3. Some of these increases have been quite modest but the startling thing is the lack of volatility since the vote, not the reverse.
I am comparing pre and post referendum, which is the only sensible comparison to make in a Brexit context. France and Germany improved by five percentage points over this period; we improved by two points. Investment is a sticky thing to measure, so arguably a one year period is a little meaningless, but at least we didn't go backwards.
Brexiters obviously struggling with the obvious. The much-derided pre-referendum forecasts (derided by all the PB dolts economists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.
I can recall some terrifying predictions by George Osborne.
"Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."
I wonder if Corbyn still believes that they are an inspiration for us?
Well it is an impressive level of equality, which is what the left believes in. And pretty much all patrimonial capital (Monbiot’s phrase from last night’s IQ debate - he got it from Piketty’s book - and said that tax rates of 83% were good because they destroyed it even if they did not raise revenue) has been destroyed. So why would it not be an inspiration?
Thanks for your review of the debate on the previous thread, hopefully it will appear online in due course. Hope to catch one of these when next in London.
Arm teachers, and the next schoolshooter takes a kid as a human shield - and starts shooting from behind them. Is the now armed teacher expected to risk killing the shield? No. Progress? Nil....
Arm the teachers and the next schoolshooter does not have to acquire weapons and bring them in. The weapons will already be there - just whack the teacher and take their weapon.
Also, how long until some teacher shoots another teacher or pupil in a row / fight / argument?
We're agreed - the idea is as dumb as a brick. Guns and schools don't mix, period.
Just when it looked as if Trump might just once do the right thing - normal service is resumed.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.
You are misreading the chart. If you go to the end of figure 4 you get GFCF since 2008. Germany is top with 111.2, we are second with 109.3, the US is close behind on 109, everyone else is well back. The graph also shows that there is no evidence at all of any deterioration in our performance since 2016.
We have now had 8 quarters in a row of increased GFCF, an unusually long and stable trend resulting in the graph at figure 3. Some of these increases have been quite modest but the startling thing is the lack of volatility since the vote, not the reverse.
I am comparing pre and post referendum, which is the only sensible comparison to make in a Brexit context. France and Germany improved by five percentage points over this period; we improved by two points. Investment is a sticky thing to measure, so arguably a one year period is a little meaningless, but at least we didn't go backwards.
Brexiters obviously struggling with the obvious. The much-derided pre-referendum forecasts (derided by all the PB dolts economists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.
I can recall some terrifying predictions by George Osborne.
Yep - he didn't cover himself in glory. But the central Treasury (actually NIESR) forecast was a diminution in growth vs the alternative scenario of £4,200 per household, IIRC, which I'm not sure I do, but it was around that level.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.
You are misreading the chart. If you go to the end of figure 4 you get GFCF since 2008. Germany is top with 111.2, we are second with 109.3, the US is close behind on 109, everyone else is well back. The graph also shows that there is no evidence at all of any deterioration in our performance since 2016.
We have now had 8 quarters in a row of increased GFCF, an unusually long and stable trend resulting in the graph at figure 3. Some of these increases have been quite modest but the startling thing is the lack of volatility since the vote, not the reverse.
I am comparing pre and post referendum, which is the only sensible comparison to make in a Brexit context. France and Germany improved by five percentage points over this period; we improved by two points. Investment is a sticky thing to measure, so arguably a one year period is a little meaningless, but at least we didn't go backwards.
Brexiters obviously struggling with the obvious. The much-derided pre-referendum forecasts (derided by all the PB dolts economists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.
Objectively wrong. They included an immediate recession and rise in unemployment before we'd even left.
On a very different note, you probably saw the news story about two teenage boys being stabbed to death within 24 hours if each other in Camden the other day. The second one - a 17 year-old - was murdered right outside my sister’s flat. Her boyfriend looked out of their front window and saw him lying dead in the street not 10 feet away. Apparently, the body was uncovered for an age. He’s an ex-policemen so has taken it in his stride, but it brings things home to you. Hidden away in affluent, metropolitan North London are these huge estates where young men - many from chaotic, dysfunctional homes - carry knives as a matter of routine and seek to kill each other. It’s going to take a lot of solving.
Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.
You are misreading the chart. If you go to the end of figure 4 you get GFCF since 2008. Germany is top with 111.2, we are second with 109.3, the US is close behind on 109, everyone else is well back. The graph also shows that there is no evidence at all of any deterioration in our performance since 2016.
We have now had 8 quarters in a row of increased GFCF, an unusually long and stable trend resulting in the graph at figure 3. Some of these increases have been quite modest but the startling thing is the lack of volatility since the vote, not the reverse.
I am comparing pre and post referendum, which is the only sensible comparison to make in a Brexit context. France and Germany improved by five percentage points over this period; we improved by two points. Investment is a sticky thing to measure, so arguably a one year period is a little meaningless, but at least we didn't go backwards.
Brexiters obviously struggling with the obvious. The much-derided pre-referendum forecasts (derided by all the PB dolts economists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.
Objectively wrong. They included an immediate recession and rise in unemployment before we'd even left.
Yes that was bluster and IMO misjudged (still, they were up against Leave's queue of 76m terrorists waiting to come to the UK in the event of a Remain vote).
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.
You are misreading the chart. If you go to the end of figure 4 you get GFCF since 2008. Germany is top with 111.2, we are second with 109.3, the US is close behind on 109, everyone else is well back. The graph also shows that there is no evidence at all of any deterioration in our performance since 2016.
Brexiters obviously struggling with the obvious. The much-derided pre-referendum forecasts (derided by all the PB dolts economists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.
Objectively wrong. They included an immediate recession and rise in unemployment before we'd even left.
There was Osborne's fantasy forecast, but also many more sensible forecasts (e.g. NIESR) which I think will turn out to be broadly on the money.
We mustn't conflate the treasury numbers (political, project Fear, so overblown as to be ludicrous) and the more respectable models which will probably be in the ballpark (though we'll never really now how the base case would have turned out - there are no controls in this experiment).
There's reasonable agreement that over the fifteen years post EU-ref, there will be fiscal drag ranging from very low to low single digits, or somewhere between 0.033% and 0.083% per quarter, if you prefer.
Nothing like starting the day by being offensive....
I love the smell of napalm in the morning..
It smells like sick to me...
I have no doubt you are sickened by events, induced no doubt by that nagging doubt. Not quite Sartre's nausea of existence, but not far off, I imagine.
Brexiters obviously struggling with the obvious. The much-derided pre-referendum forecasts (derided by all the PB dolts economists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.
Sorry Topping but this is plain wrong.
You say:
"No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done."
Actually it was explicit that we would stop growing and have a recession.
Mr. M, if Osborne et al. hadn't overblown things, Remain would've stood a better chance. Ironic that making the predicted downside smaller would've perhaps led to use staying in.
Mr. Tyndall, to be honest, I'm gladder about avoiding a thermonuclear winter
On a very different note, you probably saw the news story about two teenage boys being stabbed to death within 24 hours if each other in Camden the other day. The second one - a 17 year-old - was murdered right outside my sister’s flat. Her boyfriend looked out of their front window and saw him lying dead in the street not 10 feet away. Apparently, the body was uncovered for an age. He’s an ex-policemen so has taken it in his stride, but it brings things home to you. Hidden away in affluent, metropolitan North London are these huge estates where young men - many from chaotic, dysfunctional homes - carry knives as a matter of routine and seek to kill each other. It’s going to take a lot of solving.
Indeed. The issues are similar to those in the US, it’s just that over there the weapons are different. The solutions are not to be found by talking about the weapons but about attitudes and opportunities for these kids to make something of their lives.
Mr. M, if Osborne et al. hadn't overblown things, Remain would've stood a better chance. Ironic that making the predicted downside smaller would've perhaps led to use staying in.
Mr. Tyndall, to be honest, I'm gladder about avoiding a thermonuclear winter
I've read Shipman. Remain would have just made some other godawful mistake. Other than 'it'll cost money' they really didn't have much in their knapsack.
Nothing like starting the day by being offensive....
I love the smell of napalm in the morning..
It smells like sick to me...
I have no doubt you are sickened by events, induced no doubt by that nagging doubt. Not quite Sartre's nausea of existence, but not far off, I imagine.
Just sickened by Remainers as a Minority, with that age-old claim of the Minority:
"Wah Wah Wah! I'm in a Minority and I DEMAND to have my minority rights upheld......."
Except, this was a binary choice: light on, or light off. We voted to put the light on; you wanted to stay in the darkness.....
Brexiters obviously struggling with the obvious. The much-derided pre-referendum forecasts (derided by all the PB dolts economists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.
Sorry Topping but this is plain wrong.
You say:
"No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done."
Actually it was explicit that we would stop growing and have a recession.
So actually lots of people said we would stop growing - that is after all the definition of a recession - 2 successive quarters of negative growth.
Please stop trying to rewrite history.
I think the atmosphere at the time was, shall we say, febrile.
As I mentioned, the forecast that was published and which attracted the most attention (was derided) and which was compiled for the treasury, and which Osborne stood behnid was NIESR's of a £4,200 diminution in growth by 2030 per household.
Nothing like starting the day by being offensive....
I love the smell of napalm in the morning..
It smells like sick to me...
I have no doubt you are sickened by events, induced no doubt by that nagging doubt. Not quite Sartre's nausea of existence, but not far off, I imagine.
Just sickened by Remainers as a Minority, with that age-old claim of the Minority:
"Wah Wah Wah! I'm in a Minority and I DEMAND to have my minority rights upheld......."
Except, this was a binary choice: light on, or light off. We voted to put the light on; you wanted to stay in the darkness.....
You can always keep your eyes closed though.
I trust that as and when Labour, perhaps even Jezza gets into power, you will row behind the Labour Party and put aside all that ridiculous "I prefer the Conservatives" nonsense?
I'm puzzled by you suggestion that some politician changing sides would alter perceptions?
You're seen where politicians come in the table of people's regard. Tied at the bottom with estate agents, journalists, estate agents and rat-catchers. Oh, a self-serving politico who's never had a proper job in his life changes his mind - so Leavers who are obviously weak-minded will immediately follow like sheep?
Who is the politician? I can only think of two at the very most who might cause a little dismay. Frank Field and possibly Kate Hooey, and they're relatively unknown to the general public.
Mr. M, if Osborne et al. hadn't overblown things, Remain would've stood a better chance. Ironic that making the predicted downside smaller would've perhaps led to use staying in.
Mr. Tyndall, to be honest, I'm gladder about avoiding a thermonuclear winter
I've read Shipman. Remain would have just made some other godawful mistake. Other than 'it'll cost money' they really didn't have much in their knapsack.
I'm still reading Shipman's "All Out War". Anybody here who hasn't, you really should. There seem to have been about thirty instances in which Brexit could have been doomed. That it threaded a way through might lead one to think it was divine intervention.
Brexiters obviously struggling with the obvious. The much-derided pre-referendum forecasts (derided by all the PB dolts economists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.
Sorry Topping but this is plain wrong.
You say:
"No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done."
Actually it was explicit that we would stop growing and have a recession.
So actually lots of people said we would stop growing - that is after all the definition of a recession - 2 successive quarters of negative growth.
Please stop trying to rewrite history.
I think the atmosphere at the time was, shall we say, febrile.
As I mentioned, the forecast that was published and which attracted the most attention (was derided) and which was compiled for the treasury, and which Osborne stood behnid was NIESR's of a £4,200 diminution in growth by 2030 per household.
Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says.
Publishing Treasury analysis, he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
Actually its the best two quarters for productivity since 2005:
Nothing like starting the day by being offensive....
I love the smell of napalm in the morning..
It smells like sick to me...
I have no doubt you are sickened by events, induced no doubt by that nagging doubt. Not quite Sartre's nausea of existence, but not far off, I imagine.
Just sickened by Remainers as a Minority, with that age-old claim of the Minority:
"Wah Wah Wah! I'm in a Minority and I DEMAND to have my minority rights upheld......."
Except, this was a binary choice: light on, or light off. We voted to put the light on; you wanted to stay in the darkness.....
You can always keep your eyes closed though.
I trust that as and when Labour, perhaps even Jezza gets into power, you will row behind the Labour Party and put aside all that ridiculous "I prefer the Conservatives" nonsense?
I will respect the democratic will of the people. They'll be idiots, for sure, but we'll be where we are.....
I will not take Guy Fawkes as a role model, and determine to blow up Parliament, just because it's passing laws I think insane.
Mr. M, if Osborne et al. hadn't overblown things, Remain would've stood a better chance. Ironic that making the predicted downside smaller would've perhaps led to use staying in.
Mr. Tyndall, to be honest, I'm gladder about avoiding a thermonuclear winter
I've read Shipman. Remain would have just made some other godawful mistake. Other than 'it'll cost money' they really didn't have much in their knapsack.
I'm still reading Shipman's "All Out War". Anybody here who hasn't, you really should. There seem to have been about thirty instances in which Brexit could have been doomed. That it threaded a way through might lead one to think it was divine intervention.
Brexit: it's God's Will. So STFU.....
It’s one of those few books that invites you to rewind a little each time you pick it up, to remind you exactly where you left off. The most fascinating political book of the last couple of decades? Hope he made a load of money in sales, very well deserved.
Mr. M, if Osborne et al. hadn't overblown things, Remain would've stood a better chance. Ironic that making the predicted downside smaller would've perhaps led to use staying in.
Mr. Tyndall, to be honest, I'm gladder about avoiding a thermonuclear winter
I've read Shipman. Remain would have just made some other godawful mistake. Other than 'it'll cost money' they really didn't have much in their knapsack.
I'm still reading Shipman's "All Out War". Anybody here who hasn't, you really should. There seem to have been about thirty instances in which Brexit could have been doomed. That it threaded a way through might lead one to think it was divine intervention.
Brexit: it's God's Will. So STFU.....
It’s one of those few books that invites you to rewind a little each time you pick it up, to remind you exactly where you left off. The most fascinating political book of the last couple of decades? Hope he made a load of money in sales, very well deserved.
A poor analogy. The 'let's have another referendum because we didn't like the first one' is more akin to the period after a GE but before the new MPs have even assembled in Parliament. It's 'I refuse to accept the election result. I know better.'
You can have another referendum after a suitable period of having tried Brexit. Forty years seems to be the usual period - a nice biblical length.
I don't think the bus is a smart tactic. I have seen no evidence that the Leave bus in the campaign affected the polling or the end result at all, and then there was an actual campaign. Still, if it makes Blair, Clegg et al feel like there is a chance, and diverts them from more effective efforts to thwart democracy, then fair enough.
Off topic, I see the Australians are going to ask for reciprocal working rights, so hopefully CANZUK will actually happen:
So you are saying that non-EU trade deals are going to come with freedom of movement strings attached? Not sure that's what leave supporters want to hear.
Reciprocal working rights are *not* the same as freedom of movement
But they are a set of rules, agreed willingly with another party, which mean we don't control our immigration policy.
Remind you of anything?
Nope. We didn’t like the EU rules so tried to change them. Our partners didn’t want to change, so we said “no thanks” to the whole deal.
Brexiters obviously struggling with the obvious. The much-derided pre-referendum forecasts (derided by all the PB dolts economists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.
Sorry Topping but this is plain wrong.
You say:
"No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done."
Actually it was explicit that we would stop growing and have a recession.
So actually lots of people said we would stop growing - that is after all the definition of a recession - 2 successive quarters of negative growth.
Please stop trying to rewrite history.
I think the atmosphere at the time was, shall we say, febrile.
As I mentioned, the forecast that was published and which attracted the most attention (was derided) and which was compiled for the treasury, and which Osborne stood behnid was NIESR's of a £4,200 diminution in growth by 2030 per household.
The NIESR has always tried to be as balanced as possible - I remember Britain in Europe trashing their own report on EU membership in 2000 because the NIESR who they commissioned were came out with the result that it leaving would make not much difference either way.
But just because one organisation tried to be realistic, does not mean that you can just ignore the fact that all the others - including the BoE, the Treasury and the IMF - whipped up hysteria about immediate recessions which they have now had to row back on.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.
You are misreading the chart. If you go to the end of figure 4 you get GFCF since 2008. Germany is top with 111.2, we are second with 109.3, the US is close behind on 109, everyone else is well back. The graph also shows that there is no evidence at all of any deterioration in our performance since 2016.
We have now had 8 quarters in a row of increased GFCF, an unusually long and stable trend resulting in the graph at figure 3. Some of these increases have been quite modest but the startling thing is the lack of volatility since the vote, not the reverse.
I am comparing pre and post referendum, which is the only sensible comparison to make in a Brexit context. France and Germany improved by five percentage points over this period; we improved by two points. Investment is a sticky thing to measure, so arguably a one year period is a little meaningless, but at least we didn't go backwards.
Brexiters obviously struggling with the obvious. The much-derided pre-referendum forecasts (derided by all the PB dolts economists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.
I can recall some terrifying predictions by George Osborne.
Mr. M, if Osborne et al. hadn't overblown things, Remain would've stood a better chance. Ironic that making the predicted downside smaller would've perhaps led to use staying in.
Mr. Tyndall, to be honest, I'm gladder about avoiding a thermonuclear winter
I've read Shipman. Remain would have just made some other godawful mistake. Other than 'it'll cost money' they really didn't have much in their knapsack.
I'm still reading Shipman's "All Out War". Anybody here who hasn't, you really should. There seem to have been about thirty instances in which Brexit could have been doomed. That it threaded a way through might lead one to think it was divine intervention.
Brexit: it's God's Will. So STFU.....
It’s one of those few books that invites you to rewind a little each time you pick it up, to remind you exactly where you left off. The most fascinating political book of the last couple of decades? Hope he made a load of money in sales, very well deserved.
I've just started 'Fall Out'. Gripping stuff, though very painful to read if you're a Tory.
So actually lots of people said we would stop growing - that is after all the definition of a recession - 2 successive quarters of negative growth.
Please stop trying to rewrite history.
I think the atmosphere at the time was, shall we say, febrile.
As I mentioned, the forecast that was published and which attracted the most attention (was derided) and which was compiled for the treasury, and which Osborne stood behnid was NIESR's of a £4,200 diminution in growth by 2030 per household.
Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says.
Publishing Treasury analysis, he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.
Yeah, they panicked. As I said, they were faced with Leave's snaking queues of Arab FAMs at the border, ready to come to the UK and rape our women. So I suppose desperate measures, and all that.
And as for those predictions, some of them came true (house price fall, sterling plunge). In fact who knows, not you or I, what would have happened had Mark Carney not immediately taken action to halt any panic following the vote. And this following ongoing meetings with Osborne.
The mistake that Remain made was to talk at people and not talk to them. But forty years of arrogance meant old habits died hard. Mr Eagles' bestie was the chief culprit.
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
Actually its the best two quarters for productivity since 2005:
The media often use 2008 as short hand for 'since the recession'.
No doubt we'll start hearing the siren calls from the usual suspects for tax cuts because the better borrowing figures give the Chancellor "room".
The January figures are always good and actually this year's aren't quite as good as last year's which is worth bearing in mind but the overall PBR looks to be coming in around £40-£45 billion which is nicely below the target but no room for complacency.
Indeed those who argue more funding could be directed into public services can also use these figures to support their argument.
Nothing like starting the day by being offensive....
I love the smell of napalm in the morning..
It smells like sick to me...
I have no doubt you are sickened by events, induced no doubt by that nagging doubt. Not quite Sartre's nausea of existence, but not far off, I imagine.
Just sickened by Remainers as a Minority, with that age-old claim of the Minority:
"Wah Wah Wah! I'm in a Minority and I DEMAND to have my minority rights upheld......."
Except, this was a binary choice: light on, or light off. We voted to put the light on; you wanted to stay in the darkness.....
You can always keep your eyes closed though.
I trust that as and when Labour, perhaps even Jezza gets into power, you will row behind the Labour Party and put aside all that ridiculous "I prefer the Conservatives" nonsense?
I will respect the democratic will of the people. They'll be idiots, for sure, but we'll be where we are.....
I will not take Guy Fawkes as a role model, and determine to blow up Parliament, just because it's passing laws I think insane.
I don't think anyone is threatening to blow up parliaments but I'm glad you agree that you are an idiot. I used the word dolt to start with so I'm not sure why you took issue with that.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.
You are misreading the chart. If you go to the end of figure 4 you get GFCF since 2008. Germany is top with 111.2, we are second with 109.3, the US is close behind on 109, everyone else is well back. The graph also shows that there is no evidence at all of any deterioration in our performance since 2016.
We have now had 8 quarters in a row of increased GFCF, an unusually long and stable trend resulting in the graph at figure 3. Some of these increases have been quite modest but the startling thing is the lack of volatility since the vote, not the reverse.
I am comparing pre and post referendum, which is the only sensible comparison to make in a Brexit context. France and Germany improved by five percentage points over this period; we improved by two points. Investment is a sticky thing to measure, so arguably a one year period is a little meaningless, but at least we didn't go backwards.
Brexiters obviously struggling with the obvious. The much-derided pre-referendum forecasts (derided by all the PB dolts economists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.
I can recall some terrifying predictions by George Osborne.
Nothing like starting the day by being offensive....
I love the smell of napalm in the morning..
It smells like sick to me...
I have no doubt you are sickened by events, induced no doubt by that nagging doubt. Not quite Sartre's nausea of existence, but not far off, I imagine.
Just sickened by Remainers as a Minority, with that age-old claim of the Minority:
"Wah Wah Wah! I'm in a Minority and I DEMAND to have my minority rights upheld......."
Except, this was a binary choice: light on, or light off. We voted to put the light on; you wanted to stay in the darkness.....
You can always keep your eyes closed though.
I trust that as and when Labour, perhaps even Jezza gets into power, you will row behind the Labour Party and put aside all that ridiculous "I prefer the Conservatives" nonsense?
I will respect the democratic will of the people. They'll be idiots, for sure, but we'll be where we are.....
I will not take Guy Fawkes as a role model, and determine to blow up Parliament, just because it's passing laws I think insane.
I don't think anyone is threatening to blow up parliaments but I'm glad you agree that you are an idiot. I used the word dolt to start with so I'm not sure why you took issue with that.
Idiots are those, like you, still fighting the last election*. The smart ones fight the next one.
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
Actually its the best two quarters for productivity since 2005:
So actually lots of people said we would stop growing - that is after all the definition of a recession - 2 successive quarters of negative growth.
Please stop trying to rewrite history.
I think the atmosphere at the time was, shall we say, febrile.
As I mentioned, the forecast that was published and which attracted the most attention (was derided) and which was compiled for the treasury, and which Osborne stood behnid was NIESR's of a £4,200 diminution in growth by 2030 per household.
Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says.
Publishing Treasury analysis, he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.
Yeah, they panicked. As I said, they were faced with Leave's snaking queues of Arab FAMs at the border, ready to come to the UK and rape our women. So I suppose desperate measures, and all that.
And as for those predictions, some of them came true (house price fall, sterling plunge). In fact who knows, not you or I, what would have happened had Mark Carney not immediately taken action to halt any panic following the vote. And this following ongoing meetings with Osborne.
Nothing like starting the day by being offensive....
I love the smell of napalm in the morning..
It smells like sick to me...
I have no doubt you are sickened by events, induced no doubt by that nagging doubt. Not quite Sartre's nausea of existence, but not far off, I imagine.
Just sickened by Remainers as a Minority, with that age-old claim of the Minority:
"Wah Wah Wah! I'm in a Minority and I DEMAND to have my minority rights upheld......."
Except, this was a binary choice: light on, or light off. We voted to put the light on; you wanted to stay in the darkness.....
You can always keep your eyes closed though.
I trust that as and when Labour, perhaps even Jezza gets into power, you will row behind the Labour Party and put aside all that ridiculous "I prefer the Conservatives" nonsense?
I will respect the democratic will of the people. They'll be idiots, for sure, but we'll be where we are.....
I will not take Guy Fawkes as a role model, and determine to blow up Parliament, just because it's passing laws I think insane.
I don't think anyone is threatening to blow up parliaments but I'm glad you agree that you are an idiot. I used the word dolt to start with so I'm not sure why you took issue with that.
Idiots are those, like you, still fighting the last election*. The smart ones fight the next one.
EDIT *Or Referendum.
"They'll be idiots, for sure"
You and I are in perfect alignment. People who disagree with our political view are idiots. You disagree with my political view and hence you are an idiot.
So actually lots of people said we would stop growing - that is after all the definition of a recession - 2 successive quarters of negative growth.
Please stop trying to rewrite history.
I think the atmosphere at the time was, shall we say, febrile.
As I mentioned, the forecast that was published and which attracted the most attention (was derided) and which was compiled for the treasury, and which Osborne stood behnid was NIESR's of a £4,200 diminution in growth by 2030 per household.
Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says.
Publishing Treasury analysis, he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.
Yeah, they panicked. As I said, they were faced with Leave's snaking queues of Arab FAMs at the border, ready to come to the UK and rape our women. So I suppose desperate measures, and all that.
And as for those predictions, some of them came true (house price fall, sterling plunge). In fact who knows, not you or I, what would have happened had Mark Carney not immediately taken action to halt any panic following the vote. And this following ongoing meetings with Osborne.
I think the atmosphere at the time was, shall we say, febrile.
As I mentioned, the forecast that was published and which attracted the most attention (was derided) and which was compiled for the treasury, and which Osborne stood behnid was NIESR's of a £4,200 diminution in growth by 2030 per household.
Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says.
Publishing Treasury analysis, he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.
Yeah, they panicked. As I said, they were faced with Leave's snaking queues of Arab FAMs at the border, ready to come to the UK and rape our women. So I suppose desperate measures, and all that.
And as for those predictions, some of them came true (house price fall, sterling plunge). In fact who knows, not you or I, what would have happened had Mark Carney not immediately taken action to halt any panic following the vote. And this following ongoing meetings with Osborne.
The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.
Interesting exchange with Dan Hannan yesterday, the epitome of the Brexiteer who wants to pretend he wasn't part of the same campaign
@DanielJHannan: Before the referendum, Eurosceptics were patronised as quaint, eccentric or nostalgic, but not illegitimate. Overnight, they somehow became hateful racists. Their crime? Winning.
@eugemeade: @DanielJHannan When Farage stood in front of the poster no one thought 'how quaint, how eccentric, how nostalgic'. Everyone thought 'hateful racist'
Hannan sat on the board of the campaign group who put out a "millions of middle Eastern types are going to invade Britain" poster yet claims it wasn't about immigration.
Nothing like starting the day by being offensive....
I love the smell of napalm in the morning..
It smells like sick to me...
I have no doubt you are sickened by events, induced no doubt by that nagging doubt. Not quite Sartre's nausea of existence, but not far off, I imagine.
Just sickened by Remainers as a Minority, with that age-old claim of the Minority:
"Wah Wah Wah! I'm in a Minority and I DEMAND to have my minority rights upheld......."
Except, this was a binary choice: light on, or light off. We voted to put the light on; you wanted to stay in the darkness.....
You can always keep your eyes closed though.
I trust that as and when Labour, perhaps even Jezza gets into power, you will row behind the Labour Party and put aside all that ridiculous "I prefer the Conservatives" nonsense?
I will respect the democratic will of the people. They'll be idiots, for sure, but we'll be where we are.....
I will not take Guy Fawkes as a role model, and determine to blow up Parliament, just because it's passing laws I think insane.
I don't think anyone is threatening to blow up parliaments but I'm glad you agree that you are an idiot. I used the word dolt to start with so I'm not sure why you took issue with that.
Idiots are those, like you, still fighting the last election*. The smart ones fight the next one.
EDIT *Or Referendum.
"They'll be idiots, for sure"
You and I are in perfect alignment. People who disagree with our political view are idiots. You disagree with my political view and hence you are an idiot.
But I can accept that if Corbyn gets in, I'll be an idiot that made a case - unsuccesfully. The people didn't like my argument. So I'll move on and make a better argument.
I won't be an idiot that huffs and puffs that my argument was and ever more shall be the only argument, so invalidating the people's choice in the first place. And thereby entitling me to heap opprobrium upon them, for their views, and their lack of intellignece, and their ugliness, and.....
So actually lots of people said we would stop growing - that is after all the definition of a recession - 2 successive quarters of negative growth.
Please stop trying to rewrite history.
I think the atmosphere at the time was, shall we say, febrile.
As I mentioned, the forecast that was published and which attracted the most attention (was derided) and which was compiled for the treasury, and which Osborne stood behnid was NIESR's of a £4,200 diminution in growth by 2030 per household.
Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says.
Publishing Treasury analysis, he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.
Yeah, they panicked. As I said, they were faced with Leave's snaking queues of Arab FAMs at the border, ready to come to the UK and rape our women. So I suppose desperate measures, and all that.
And as for those predictions, some of them came true (house price fall, sterling plunge). In fact who knows, not you or I, what would have happened had Mark Carney not immediately taken action to halt any panic following the vote. And this following ongoing meetings with Osborne.
Rubio didn't have an.answer to the question put to him by a seventeen year old - why do you take money from the NRA? This isn't an answer.
A potentially significant moment. Not in actually reducing the number of guns, but where people start saying, I don't accept the situation. The near total ban on guns in the UK came about after the Dunblane massacre when the question was asked, why does anyone need to carry guns, and no-one came up with an answer.
I think the atmosphere at the time was, shall we say, febrile.
As I mentioned, the forecast that was published and which attracted the most attention (was derided) and which was compiled for the treasury, and which Osborne stood behnid was NIESR's of a £4,200 diminution in growth by 2030 per household.
Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says.
Publishing Treasury analysis, he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.
Yeah, they panicked. As I said, they were faced with Leave's snaking queues of Arab FAMs at the border, ready to come to the UK and rape our women. So I suppose desperate measures, and all that.
And as for those predictions, some of them came true (house price fall, sterling plunge). In fact who knows, not you or I, what would have happened had Mark Carney not immediately taken action to halt any panic following the vote. And this following ongoing meetings with Osborne.
Falling in London, where all the journalists live.
But London house prices are still increasing even if at lower than the national rate.
I daresay the likes of Bromley, Bexley and Barking aren't regarded as 'London' by some people.
They're not in my (hardcore remain) district of London. Stagnant. And I expect them to remain so for some time, with interest rates headed in one direction only. But it's no bad thing.
Nothing like starting the day by being offensive....
I love the smell of napalm in the morning..
It smells like sick to me...
I have no doubt you are sickened by events, induced no doubt by that nagging doubt. Not quite Sartre's nausea of existence, but not far off, I imagine.
Just sickened by Remainers as a Minority, with that age-old claim of the Minority:
"Wah Wah Wah! I'm in a Minority and I DEMAND to have my minority rights upheld......."
Except, this was a binary choice: light on, or light off. We voted to put the light on; you wanted to stay in the darkness.....
You can always keep your eyes closed though.
I trust that as and when Labour, perhaps even Jezza gets into power, you will row behind the Labour Party and put aside all that ridiculous "I prefer the Conservatives" nonsense?
I will respect the democratic will of the people. They'll be idiots, for sure, but we'll be where we are.....
I will not take Guy Fawkes as a role model, and determine to blow up Parliament, just because it's passing laws I think insane.
I don't think anyone is threatening to blow up parliaments but I'm glad you agree that you are an idiot. I used the word dolt to start with so I'm not sure why you took issue with that.
Idiots are those, like you, still fighting the last election*. The smart ones fight the next one.
EDIT *Or Referendum.
"They'll be idiots, for sure"
You and I are in perfect alignment. People who disagree with our political view are idiots. You disagree with my political view and hence you are an idiot.
But I can accept that if Corbyn gets in, I'll be an idiot that made a case - unsuccesfully. The people didn't like my argument. So I'll move on and make a better argument.
I won't be an idiot that huffs and puffs that my argument was and ever more shall be the only argument, so invalidating the people's choice in the first place. And thereby entitling me to heap opprobrium upon them, for their views, and their lack of intellignece, and their ugliness, and.....
That's the differing idiots we are.
Nah, methinks you protest too much; you're going to fall off that pin.
I think the atmosphere at the time was, shall we say, febrile.
As I mentioned, the forecast that was published and which attracted the most attention (was derided) and which was compiled for the treasury, and which Osborne stood behnid was NIESR's of a £4,200 diminution in growth by 2030 per household.
Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says.
Publishing Treasury analysis, he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.
Yeah, they panicked. As I said, they were faced with Leave's snaking queues of Arab FAMs at the border, ready to come to the UK and rape our women. So I suppose desperate measures, and all that.
And as for those predictions, some of them came true (house price fall, sterling plunge). In fact who knows, not you or I, what would have happened had Mark Carney not immediately taken action to halt any panic following the vote. And this following ongoing meetings with Osborne.
All of my British friends backed remain and are in despair over the vote’s outcome. While I never experienced personal resentments, something changed after June 23 2016. As German citizens, we did not feel as welcome and I started to feel estranged from the country I had lived in for almost a decade. Yet after our last box was loaded into the lorry that was heading to Frankfurt, and I was left with one suitcase in our empty flat, I shed a tear. That had never happened when I left Düsseldorf for London eight years before.
So net migration in the latest three months was 14,000 higher than it was a year previously.
July, August and September 2016 were down 63,000 on the same three months in 2015. So it has come back a bit, but not by as much as I thought it might.
Rubio didn't have an.answer to the question put to him by a seventeen year old - why do you take money from the NRA? This isn't an answer.
A potentially significant moment. Not in actually reducing the number of guns, but where people start saying, I don't accept the situation. The near total ban on guns in the UK came about after the Dunblane massacre when the question was asked, why does anyone need to carry guns, and no-one came up with an answer.
It all stems from a mis-spellingin the US consitution. It's the right to bare arms!
So net migration in the latest three months was 14,000 higher than it was a year previously.
July, August and September 2016 were down 63,000 on the same three months in 2015. So it has come back a bit, but not by as much as I thought it might.
I know some were saying a chunky rise was inevitable though alas I don't recall who.
On a very different note, you probably saw the news story about two teenage boys being stabbed to death within 24 hours if each other in Camden the other day. The second one - a 17 year-old - was murdered right outside my sister’s flat. Her boyfriend looked out of their front window and saw him lying dead in the street not 10 feet away. Apparently, the body was uncovered for an age. He’s an ex-policemen so has taken it in his stride, but it brings things home to you. Hidden away in affluent, metropolitan North London are these huge estates where young men - many from chaotic, dysfunctional homes - carry knives as a matter of routine and seek to kill each other. It’s going to take a lot of solving.
The teenage son of a London client of mine was stabbed to death. A lovely gentle boy who happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. His father fell to pieces. It is desperately sad.
A poor analogy. The 'let's have another referendum because we didn't like the first one' is more akin to the period after a GE but before the new MPs have even assembled in Parliament. It's 'I refuse to accept the election result. I know better.'
You can have another referendum after a suitable period of having tried Brexit. Forty years seems to be the usual period - a nice biblical length.
Just long enough to restrict the life opportunities of those of us in the younger generation who voted remain. Nope we'd rather stop this hateful idiocy sooner than that.
All of my British friends backed remain and are in despair over the vote’s outcome. While I never experienced personal resentments, something changed after June 23 2016. As German citizens, we did not feel as welcome and I started to feel estranged from the country I had lived in for almost a decade. Yet after our last box was loaded into the lorry that was heading to Frankfurt, and I was left with one suitcase in our empty flat, I shed a tear. That had never happened when I left Düsseldorf for London eight years before.
Yet more people are coming from Dusseldorf than leaving for Frankfurt.
We are still gaining EU citizens. We are not talking about coping with a shortage, at least not in general.
So net migration in the latest three months was 14,000 higher than it was a year previously.
July, August and September 2016 were down 63,000 on the same three months in 2015. So it has come back a bit, but not by as much as I thought it might.
I know some were saying a chunky rise was inevitable though alas I don't recall who.
I think @viewcode (apologies if not you) might have put forward the theory that immigration would increase as Brexit approached as EU nationals sought to have the option of staying in the UK post-Brexit. But actually I doubt many would make that calculation. More likely the strength of the Euro and their home economies doing well is the driving factor.
I don't think the bus is a smart tactic. I have seen no evidence that the Leave bus in the campaign affected the polling or the end result at all, and then there was an actual campaign. Still, if it makes Blair, Clegg et al feel like there is a chance, and diverts them from more effective efforts to thwart democracy, then fair enough.
Off topic, I see the Australians are going to ask for reciprocal working rights, so hopefully CANZUK will actually happen:
So you are saying that non-EU trade deals are going to come with freedom of movement strings attached? Not sure that's what leave supporters want to hear.
Reciprocal working rights are *not* the same as freedom of movement
But they are a set of rules, agreed willingly with another party, which mean we don't control our immigration policy.
Remind you of anything?
Nope. We didn’t like the EU rules so tried to change them. Our partners didn’t want to change, so we said “no thanks” to the whole deal.
Er, what if the Ozzies don't want to change the rules if we want to?
If Remoaners believe this, then they truly are deluding themselves. One final desperate year in which they are praying for a "saviour" a Messiah to rescue them in a Brexit version of Life of Brian.
But at least now they admit they wish to "stop Brexit". I prefer that honesty to the lie they have peddled for the last year that what people were really voting for was to leave the EU in name only but keep our borders and laws totally under EU control via the Single Market.
Now Remoaners are being honest and telling us they really do want to overturn the most democratic vote for change in British history. They want to turn to the British people and say "NO! Whether we are an independent country is none of your business"
We have already had a defection of sorts from Leave to Remain. The hopeless Jeremy Corbyn who voted against every EU treaty for 30 years, now tells us that he is a Remainer.
Pity he didnt campaign effectively for it during the referendum campaign. Pity he didnt appear on a single major ITV or BBC debate. Pity his name did not appear on the joint Labour leaders press statement in favour of remain.
No wonder voters in Labour London would prefer "None of the Above" to be prime minister than the current leader of the Labour party.
If Remoaners believe this, then they truly are deluding themselves. One final desperate year in which they are praying for a "saviour" a Messiah to rescue them in a Brexit version of Life of Brian.
But at least now they admit they wish to "stop Brexit". I prefer that honesty to the lie they have peddled for the last year that what people were really voting for was to leave the EU in name only but keep our borders and laws totally under EU control via the Single Market.
Now Remoaners are being honest and telling us they really do want to overturn the most democratic vote for change in British history. They want to turn to the British people and say "NO! Whether we are an independent country is none of your business"
We have already had a defection of sorts from Leave to Remain. The hopeless Jeremy Corbyn who voted against every EU treaty for 30 years, now tells us that he is a Remainer.
Pity he didnt campaign effectively for it during the referendum campaign. Pity he didnt appear on a single major ITV or BBC debate. Pity his name did not appear on the joint Labour leaders press statement in favour of remain.
No wonder voters in Labour London would prefer "None of the Above" to be prime minister than the current leader of the Labour party.
Mr. M, if Osborne et al. hadn't overblown things, Remain would've stood a better chance. Ironic that making the predicted downside smaller would've perhaps led to use staying in.
Mr. Tyndall, to be honest, I'm gladder about avoiding a thermonuclear winter
I've read Shipman. Remain would have just made some other godawful mistake. Other than 'it'll cost money' they really didn't have much in their knapsack.
I'm still reading Shipman's "All Out War". Anybody here who hasn't, you really should. There seem to have been about thirty instances in which Brexit could have been doomed. That it threaded a way through might lead one to think it was divine intervention.
Brexit: it's God's Will. So STFU.....
Now it's God's will - not the 'will of the people' (well half of them).
Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.
Their operational HQ has been in Holland for 70 years (the “Uni” bit of Uni-Lever)
So another stupid, unnecessary mistake by the government to try to get them to stay?
Not really, though of course it's going to be seen through the prism of Brexit.
Unilever are an important company (a good old fashioned conglomerate). More worrying would be if they moved their research facilities from Colworth and Port Sunlight.
If they do move, Unilever House would be a fantastic development opportunity, it's truly beautiful.
Some confusion here I think. The main discussion within Unilever is whether they should simplify their share structure and dual listing (they are currently listed on the Amsterdam and London stock exchanges). They've announced a review of this, but the decision hasn't been published yet. However, they have quietly bought in all their Dutch preference shares, so...
@another_richard The report predicts the COST of Brexit, ie the DIFFERENCE between the measures with Brexit and without. They were clear about what they are were doing and it is the only form of analysis that makes sense. If we say they got their modelling wrong, we owe it to the authors to base our criticism what they actually wrote, not what we falsely think they wrote.
People can point to growth nevertheless. Economists will say that growth has nothing to do with Brexit. In fact Brexit reduced it. We can come back and say, the reasons don't matter, we're ok.
The main takeaway for me is that it if you are doing something disruptive like Brexit, choose a worldwide economic boom to do it in. Sinking boats lift on a rising tide. The question is whether.the underperformance just lasts a year or two while the economy adjusts, which we will hardly notice, or whether the underperformance will continue year on year, which matters a LOT.
* WW3 * Martian invasion * Global warming causing the seas to rise 20m * Hard border built by the EU army between Ulster and ROI * Mrs May calling a GE when she doesn't have to
Arm teachers, and the next schoolshooter takes a kid as a human shield - and starts shooting from behind them. Is the now armed teacher expected to risk killing the shield? No. Progress? Nil....
Arm the teachers and the next schoolshooter does not have to acquire weapons and bring them in. The weapons will already be there - just whack the teacher and take their weapon.
Also, how long until some teacher shoots another teacher or pupil in a row / fight / argument?
We're agreed - the idea is as dumb as a brick. Guns and schools don't mix, period.
Just when it looked as if Trump might just once do the right thing - normal service is resumed.
Politicians funded by gun manufacturers propose the manufacture of more guns. Unsurprising.
On a very different note, you probably saw the news story about two teenage boys being stabbed to death within 24 hours if each other in Camden the other day. The second one - a 17 year-old - was murdered right outside my sister’s flat. Her boyfriend looked out of their front window and saw him lying dead in the street not 10 feet away. Apparently, the body was uncovered for an age. He’s an ex-policemen so has taken it in his stride, but it brings things home to you. Hidden away in affluent, metropolitan North London are these huge estates where young men - many from chaotic, dysfunctional homes - carry knives as a matter of routine and seek to kill each other. It’s going to take a lot of solving.
Didn't the Mayor of London kybosh "stop and search" ?
Mr. M, if Osborne et al. hadn't overblown things, Remain would've stood a better chance. Ironic that making the predicted downside smaller would've perhaps led to use staying in.
Mr. Tyndall, to be honest, I'm gladder about avoiding a thermonuclear winter
I've read Shipman. Remain would have just made some other godawful mistake. Other than 'it'll cost money' they really didn't have much in their knapsack.
I'm still reading Shipman's "All Out War". Anybody here who hasn't, you really should. There seem to have been about thirty instances in which Brexit could have been doomed. That it threaded a way through might lead one to think it was divine intervention.
Brexit: it's God's Will. So STFU.....
I recently finished reading Fall Out. Shipman paints a fair and balanced picture of politicians on all sides but May comes across badly. I find it astonishing, just for starters, that she had so little input into the 2017 manifesto. It's almost as though she's untroubled by ANY original thoughts.
The handling of Brexit was always going to be tricky but I think May has made it trickier through her lack of personality, creative thinking and inability to build relationships with people. She is a depressingly poor PM whose abject performance in last year's GE had one ironic, positive effect for her: it has kept her in power.
The Tories fucked up with May and every member of the parliamentary party (aside from Williamson, it seems...) knows it.
Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.
Their operational HQ has been in Holland for 70 years (the “Uni” bit of Uni-Lever)
So another stupid, unnecessary mistake by the government to try to get them to stay?
Not really, though of course it's going to be seen through the prism of Brexit.
Unilever are an important company (a good old fashioned conglomerate). More worrying would be if they moved their research facilities from Colworth and Port Sunlight.
If they do move, Unilever House would be a fantastic development opportunity, it's truly beautiful.
Some confusion here I think. The main discussion within Unilever is whether they should simplify their share structure and dual listing (they are currently listed on the Amsterdam and London stock exchanges). They've announced a review of this, but the decision hasn't been published yet. However, they have quietly bought in all their Dutch preference shares, so...
There are some related corporate structuring things happening - but it won't affect either the level of employment in the UK or the amount of tax paid here.
Rubio didn't have an.answer to the question put to him by a seventeen year old - why do you take money from the NRA? This isn't an answer.
A potentially significant moment. Not in actually reducing the number of guns, but where people start saying, I don't accept the situation. The near total ban on guns in the UK came about after the Dunblane massacre when the question was asked, why does anyone need to carry guns, and no-one came up with an answer.
Because I believe in free speech and, so long as what they are advocating is legal, they have the same right to engage in the political process as anyone else
On a very different note, you probably saw the news story about two teenage boys being stabbed to death within 24 hours if each other in Camden the other day. The second one - a 17 year-old - was murdered right outside my sister’s flat. Her boyfriend looked out of their front window and saw him lying dead in the street not 10 feet away. Apparently, the body was uncovered for an age. He’s an ex-policemen so has taken it in his stride, but it brings things home to you. Hidden away in affluent, metropolitan North London are these huge estates where young men - many from chaotic, dysfunctional homes - carry knives as a matter of routine and seek to kill each other. It’s going to take a lot of solving.
Didn't the Mayor of London kybosh "stop and search" ?
I don't think the bus is a smart tactic. I have seen no evidence that the Leave bus in the campaign affected the polling or the end result at all, and then there was an actual campaign. Still, if it makes Blair, Clegg et al feel like there is a chance, and diverts them from more effective efforts to thwart democracy, then fair enough.
Off topic, I see the Australians are going to ask for reciprocal working rights, so hopefully CANZUK will actually happen:
So you are saying that non-EU trade deals are going to come with freedom of movement strings attached? Not sure that's what leave supporters want to hear.
Reciprocal working rights are *not* the same as freedom of movement
But they are a set of rules, agreed willingly with another party, which mean we don't control our immigration policy.
Remind you of anything?
Nope. We didn’t like the EU rules so tried to change them. Our partners didn’t want to change, so we said “no thanks” to the whole deal.
Er, what if the Ozzies don't want to change the rules if we want to?
Then we terminate the agreement
The point is that restricting EU immigration was incompatible with EU membership and therefore we had “no control” while remaining a member
Mr. M, if Osborne et al. hadn't overblown things, Remain would've stood a better chance. Ironic that making the predicted downside smaller would've perhaps led to use staying in.
Mr. Tyndall, to be honest, I'm gladder about avoiding a thermonuclear winter
I've read Shipman. Remain would have just made some other godawful mistake. Other than 'it'll cost money' they really didn't have much in their knapsack.
I'm still reading Shipman's "All Out War". Anybody here who hasn't, you really should. There seem to have been about thirty instances in which Brexit could have been doomed. That it threaded a way through might lead one to think it was divine intervention.
Brexit: it's God's Will. So STFU.....
I recently finished reading Fall Out. Shipman paints a fair and balanced picture of politicians on all sides but May comes across badly. I find it astonishing, just for starters, that she had so little input into the 2017 manifesto. It's almost as though she's untroubled by ANY original thoughts.
The handling of Brexit was always going to be tricky but I think May has made it trickier through her lack of personality, creative thinking and inability to build relationships with people. She is a depressingly poor PM whose abject performance in last year's GE had one ironic, positive effect for her: it has kept her in power.
The Tories fucked up with May and every member of the parliamentary party (aside from Williamson, it seems...) knows it.
My impressions so far.
- Whitelaw was right that no Home Secretary should ever become PM. They're used to stopping things going wrong, not leading from the front.
- The lack of a proper stump due to the rest of the Keystone Kops variously blowing each other up, falling over etc meant that her shortcomings on a stage were not given sufficient scrutiny.
Arm teachers, and the next schoolshooter takes a kid as a human shield - and starts shooting from behind them. Is the now armed teacher expected to risk killing the shield? No. Progress? Nil....
Arm the teachers and the next schoolshooter does not have to acquire weapons and bring them in. The weapons will already be there - just whack the teacher and take their weapon.
Also, how long until some teacher shoots another teacher or pupil in a row / fight / argument?
We're agreed - the idea is as dumb as a brick. Guns and schools don't mix, period.
Just when it looked as if Trump might just once do the right thing - normal service is resumed.
Politicians funded by gun manufacturers propose the manufacture of more guns. Unsurprising.
The US had no mass public or school shootings from 1950 to 1980. Since 2000 it has had more than 15.
If guns are solely the cause why are these shootings a recent phenomenon and rarely if ever occurred in the first 225 years of the nations existence despite the second amendment and the right to bear arms.
What is causing young men to do this now when they didn't before? Maybe we should be asking that question?
France is gun free but it didn't stop the Bataclan massacre - because you actually have to want to go out an commit such horrible acts whether guns are legal or not.
Rubio didn't have an.answer to the question put to him by a seventeen year old - why do you take money from the NRA? This isn't an answer.
A potentially significant moment. Not in actually reducing the number of guns, but where people start saying, I don't accept the situation. The near total ban on guns in the UK came about after the Dunblane massacre when the question was asked, why does anyone need to carry guns, and no-one came up with an answer.
Because I believe in free speech and, so long as what they are advocating is legal, they have the same right to engage in the political process as anyone else
Rubio's position on guns is hopelessly compromised:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/21/marco-rubio-age-limit-rifles-421647 In June 2016, Rubio cited the mass shooting at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando as a major reason he leapt back into his Senate race, which he’d been weighing doing for months after failing in the presidential primaries. Rubio said that massacre had “impacted” him and made him feel he had to return to the Senate. He won, with NRA support. But in the nearly two years since, he has not championed any new gun legislation in Congress....
Mr. M, if Osborne et al. hadn't overblown things, Remain would've stood a better chance. Ironic that making the predicted downside smaller would've perhaps led to use staying in.
Mr. Tyndall, to be honest, I'm gladder about avoiding a thermonuclear winter
I've read Shipman. Remain would have just made some other godawful mistake. Other than 'it'll cost money' they really didn't have much in their knapsack.
I'm still reading Shipman's "All Out War". Anybody here who hasn't, you really should. There seem to have been about thirty instances in which Brexit could have been doomed. That it threaded a way through might lead one to think it was divine intervention.
Brexit: it's God's Will. So STFU.....
I recently finished reading Fall Out. Shipman paints a fair and balanced picture of politicians on all sides but May comes across badly. I find it astonishing, just for starters, that she had so little input into the 2017 manifesto. It's almost as though she's untroubled by ANY original thoughts.
The handling of Brexit was always going to be tricky but I think May has made it trickier through her lack of personality, creative thinking and inability to build relationships with people. She is a depressingly poor PM whose abject performance in last year's GE had one ironic, positive effect for her: it has kept her in power.
The Tories fucked up with May and every member of the parliamentary party (aside from Williamson, it seems...) knows it.
My impressions so far.
- Whitelaw was right that no Home Secretary should ever become PM. They're used to stopping things going wrong, not leading from the front.
- The lack of a proper stump due to the rest of the Keystone Kops variously blowing each other up, falling over etc meant that her shortcomings on a stage were not given sufficient scrutiny.
- She is almost pathologically secretive.
- Fiona Hill is horrible.
Agree on all that. Although - SPOILER ALERT - Hill starts to emerge as a (slightly) more sympathetic figure. It becomes clear that Hill is May's protector and carer and has a genuine devotion to her. It also becomes evident that May knew about Hill's behaviour, which is a bit troubling given her May's churchy background. Hill swears and abuses people nearly as much as I do... and I'm a rugby boy from a coal-mining village brought up on horse-shit sandwiches.
What exactly is Theresa's 'customs union stance'? I know there was much talk of 'a customs union' as opposed to 'the customs union', but was Theresa going for the definite or indefinite article in the end? Or was it neither?
Mr. M, if Osborne et al. hadn't overblown things, Remain would've stood a better chance. Ironic that making the predicted downside smaller would've perhaps led to use staying in.
Mr. Tyndall, to be honest, I'm gladder about avoiding a thermonuclear winter
I've read Shipman. Remain would have just made some other godawful mistake. Other than 'it'll cost money' they really didn't have much in their knapsack.
I'm still reading Shipman's "All Out War". Anybody here who hasn't, you really should. There seem to have been about thirty instances in which Brexit could have been doomed. That it threaded a way through might lead one to think it was divine intervention.
Brexit: it's God's Will. So STFU.....
Now it's God's will - not the 'will of the people' (well half of them).
I wasn't being entirely serious.... But - read the book, and then tell me it doesn't feel like God had Brexit's back! (Or maybe they had the luck of the Devil...?)
Yeah but :Labour's split on Brexit and [insert cheques pun here] so it doesn't matter that the government actually negotiating Brexit is all over the place. I'm sure it will be all right on the night.
Arm teachers, and the next schoolshooter takes a kid as a human shield - and starts shooting from behind them. Is the now armed teacher expected to risk killing the shield? No. Progress? Nil....
Arm the teachers and the next schoolshooter does not have to acquire weapons and bring them in. The weapons will already be there - just whack the teacher and take their weapon.
Also, how long until some teacher shoots another teacher or pupil in a row / fight / argument?
We're agreed - the idea is as dumb as a brick. Guns and schools don't mix, period.
Just when it looked as if Trump might just once do the right thing - normal service is resumed.
Politicians funded by gun manufacturers propose the manufacture of more guns. Unsurprising.
The US had no mass public or school shootings from 1950 to 1980. Since 2000 it has had more than 15.
If guns are solely the cause why are these shootings a recent phenomenon and rarely if ever occurred in the first 225 years of the nations existence despite the second amendment and the right to bear arms.
What is causing young men to do this now when they didn't before? Maybe we should be asking that question?
You worry about the cause and, in the meantime, let’s deal with the means...
Comments
As the A50 clock continues to run down, those who have taken shelter in vague obfuscation will be forced to come into the open and reveal what they actually think and want.
Clearly, there's still plenty of delusion out there as witnessed by one contributor on here who revels at the prospect of something called "CANZUK" or Empire 2.0 where we will apparently be able to live and work freely in New Zealand. Live and work yes but own property, no. Perhaps we should have insisted on that as a condition of joining the Single Market.
The coalitions of the parties and the two sides in the debate will be increasingly tested as the course of the negotiations becomes clear. If we are to believe Richard Nabavi, the negotiations are going far better than we could possibly have hoped, the UK will get a fantastic deal and we can go down on our knees and worship Theresa May and vote Conservative in perpetuity as a sign of our gratitude.
Or perhaps not...
Negotiation often entails an absence of information and a prevalence of rumour and so it appears. I don't know the British Government's position beyond we'd like lots of FTAs with anyone and everyone. Maybe but that assumes that's what everyone else wants and I bet it isn't.
Immigration remains as always the elephant in the room and detailed policy on that has been scant in the extreme. Politically, it's the equivalent of you and your partner discussing your sex life in front of your partner's parents - you know it happens, they know it happens but they don't want to know it happens. Nobody talks about it and nobody talks about immigration - the pro-Government spinners claim it's already coming under control but no one believes them.
Now we seem to be heading into a protracted period of Transition where effectively we will be like Norway but without the oil, the fjords and the Sovereign Wealth Fund but still having the EU and its regulations in place. The truth of that may blunt some of the pathetic euphoria which will no doubt be in evidence on 29/3/19.
Of course, it also gives the lie to the economic "lies". In truth, nothing has changed since 23/6/16. I'm convinced many who voted LEAVE thought we would exit on 24/6/16 and a brave new world would begin - that's how it is with elections in this country, the transition is rapid and painless. Leaving the EU hasn't happened yet so we carry on as if nothing had happened and, aided by generally favourable global economic winds, growth continues and the roof hasn't fallen in (apart from a generally favourable devaluation).
doltseconomists) were for a diminution of growth vs the alternative scenario. This appears to be playing out. No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done.Remind you of anything?
Arm all police.
Here is a NIESR paper on possible effects
https://niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/National%20Institute%20Economic%20Review-2016-Ebell-121-38.pdf
We mustn't conflate the treasury numbers (political, project Fear, so overblown as to be ludicrous) and the more respectable models which will probably be in the ballpark (though we'll never really now how the base case would have turned out - there are no controls in this experiment).
There's reasonable agreement that over the fifteen years post EU-ref, there will be fiscal drag ranging from very low to low single digits, or somewhere between 0.033% and 0.083% per quarter, if you prefer.
You say:
"No one said or is saying we will stop growing, just that we won't grow as fast as we might have done."
Actually it was explicit that we would stop growing and have a recession.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/brexit-vote-leaves-uk-on-brink-of-recession-economists-say
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/18/imf-says-brexit-would-trigger-uk-recession-eu-referendum
"EU referendum: Brexit 'would spark year-long recession' - Treasury"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/12/bank-of-england-keeps-interest-rates-on-hold-as-brexit-fears-bite
So actually lots of people said we would stop growing - that is after all the definition of a recession - 2 successive quarters of negative growth.
Please stop trying to rewrite history.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/734231223002894337
Mr. Tyndall, to be honest, I'm gladder about avoiding a thermonuclear winter
"Wah Wah Wah! I'm in a Minority and I DEMAND to have my minority rights upheld......."
Except, this was a binary choice: light on, or light off. We voted to put the light on; you wanted to stay in the darkness.....
You can always keep your eyes closed though.
As I mentioned, the forecast that was published and which attracted the most attention (was derided) and which was compiled for the treasury, and which Osborne stood behnid was NIESR's of a £4,200 diminution in growth by 2030 per household.
I'm puzzled by you suggestion that some politician changing sides would alter perceptions?
You're seen where politicians come in the table of people's regard. Tied at the bottom with estate agents, journalists, estate agents and rat-catchers. Oh, a self-serving politico who's never had a proper job in his life changes his mind - so Leavers who are obviously weak-minded will immediately follow like sheep?
Who is the politician? I can only think of two at the very most who might cause a little dismay. Frank Field and possibly Kate Hooey, and they're relatively unknown to the general public.
Good luck with that one.
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/966574965423333377
Brexit: it's God's Will. So STFU.....
Publishing Treasury analysis, he said a Leave vote would cause an "immediate and profound" economic shock, with growth between 3% and 6% lower.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labourproductivity/timeseries/txbb/prdy
The media often use 2008 as short hand for 'since the recession'.
I will not take Guy Fawkes as a role model, and determine to blow up Parliament, just because it's passing laws I think insane.
A poor analogy. The 'let's have another referendum because we didn't like the first one' is more akin to the period after a GE but before the new MPs have even assembled in Parliament. It's 'I refuse to accept the election result. I know better.'
You can have another referendum after a suitable period of having tried Brexit. Forty years seems to be the usual period - a nice biblical length.
But just because one organisation tried to be realistic, does not mean that you can just ignore the fact that all the others - including the BoE, the Treasury and the IMF - whipped up hysteria about immediate recessions which they have now had to row back on.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
Page 46 gives the precise GDP forecasts.
In both possible scenarios the Treasury predicted an immediate recession lasting four quarters.
And as for those predictions, some of them came true (house price fall, sterling plunge). In fact who knows, not you or I, what would have happened had Mark Carney not immediately taken action to halt any panic following the vote. And this following ongoing meetings with Osborne.
The forecast I mentioned was this one:
bbc.co.uk/news/business-36068892
Well done, Ozzie.
The January figures are always good and actually this year's aren't quite as good as last year's which is worth bearing in mind but the overall PBR looks to be coming in around £40-£45 billion which is nicely below the target but no room for complacency.
Indeed those who argue more funding could be directed into public services can also use these figures to support their argument.
EDIT *Or Referendum.
Something it didn't feel the need to do during the six years of stagnant productivity while George Osborne was Chancellor.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/december2017#uk-all-dwellings
You and I are in perfect alignment. People who disagree with our political view are idiots. You disagree with my political view and hence you are an idiot.
I daresay the likes of Bromley, Bexley and Barking aren't regarded as 'London' by some people.
He's mendacious or an idiot. Pick one.
Or do as @TheScreamingEagles does and pick both.
I won't be an idiot that huffs and puffs that my argument was and ever more shall be the only argument, so invalidating the people's choice in the first place. And thereby entitling me to heap opprobrium upon them, for their views, and their lack of intellignece, and their ugliness, and.....
That's the differing idiots we are.
' Net migration to the UK is estimated to have fallen by 29,000 to 244,000 in the year to last September, figures show. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43154308
Compare with three months ago:
' Net migration is estimated to have fallen by nearly a third to 230,000 in the year to June, new figures show. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42178038
So net migration in the latest three months was 14,000 higher than it was a year previously.
A potentially significant moment. Not in actually reducing the number of guns, but where people start saying, I don't accept the situation. The near total ban on guns in the UK came about after the Dunblane massacre when the question was asked, why does anyone need to carry guns, and no-one came up with an answer.
But it's no bad thing.
UK leavers also unchanged, which is a kind of vote of confidence in the future.
Details will be interesting. I find it sad to read articles like this: https://www.ft.com/content/0c05601a-117e-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb
All of my British friends backed remain and are in despair over the vote’s outcome. While I never experienced personal resentments, something changed after June 23 2016. As German citizens, we did not feel as welcome and I started to feel estranged from the country I had lived in for almost a decade. Yet after our last box was loaded into the lorry that was heading to Frankfurt, and I was left with one suitcase in our empty flat, I shed a tear. That had never happened when I left Düsseldorf for London eight years before.
We are still gaining EU citizens. We are not talking about coping with a shortage, at least not in general.
If Remoaners believe this, then they truly are deluding themselves. One final desperate year in which they are praying for a "saviour" a Messiah to rescue them in a Brexit version of Life of Brian.
But at least now they admit they wish to "stop Brexit". I prefer that honesty to the lie they have peddled for the last year that what people were really voting for was to leave the EU in name only but keep our borders and laws totally under EU control via the Single Market.
Now Remoaners are being honest and telling us they really do want to overturn the most democratic vote for change in British history. They want to turn to the British people and say "NO! Whether we are an independent country is none of your business"
We have already had a defection of sorts from Leave to Remain. The hopeless Jeremy Corbyn who voted against every EU treaty for 30 years, now tells us that he is a Remainer.
Pity he didnt campaign effectively for it during the referendum campaign. Pity he didnt appear on a single major ITV or BBC debate. Pity his name did not appear on the joint Labour leaders press statement in favour of remain.
No wonder voters in Labour London would prefer "None of the Above" to be prime minister than the current leader of the Labour party.
The report predicts the COST of Brexit, ie the DIFFERENCE between the measures with Brexit and without. They were clear about what they are were doing and it is the only form of analysis that makes sense. If we say they got their modelling wrong, we owe it to the authors to base our criticism what they actually wrote, not what we falsely think they wrote.
People can point to growth nevertheless. Economists will say that growth has nothing to do with Brexit. In fact Brexit reduced it. We can come back and say, the reasons don't matter, we're ok.
The main takeaway for me is that it if you are doing something disruptive like Brexit, choose a worldwide economic boom to do it in. Sinking boats lift on a rising tide. The question is whether.the underperformance just lasts a year or two while the economy adjusts, which we will hardly notice, or whether the underperformance will continue year on year, which matters a LOT.
https://www.metro.se/artikel/yougov-socialdemokraternas-tappar-stort-i-stöd
* WW3
* Martian invasion
* Global warming causing the seas to rise 20m
* Hard border built by the EU army between Ulster and ROI
* Mrs May calling a GE when she doesn't have to
Am sure there are others equally as plausible.
https://www.asian-voice.com/News/UK/London/Sadiq-Khan-pledges-to-reduce-stop-and-search
Wednesday 02nd September 2015 12:32 EDT
The handling of Brexit was always going to be tricky but I think May has made it trickier through her lack of personality, creative thinking and inability to build relationships with people. She is a depressingly poor PM whose abject performance in last year's GE had one ironic, positive effect for her: it has kept her in power.
The Tories fucked up with May and every member of the parliamentary party (aside from Williamson, it seems...) knows it.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/law/2014/apr/30/theresa-may-reform-police-stop-and-search-powers
I wonder whatever happened to her ?
The point is that restricting EU immigration was incompatible with EU membership and therefore we had “no control” while remaining a member
- Whitelaw was right that no Home Secretary should ever become PM. They're used to stopping things going wrong, not leading from the front.
- The lack of a proper stump due to the rest of the Keystone Kops variously blowing each other up, falling over etc meant that her shortcomings on a stage were not given sufficient scrutiny.
- She is almost pathologically secretive.
- Fiona Hill is horrible.
If guns are solely the cause why are these shootings a recent phenomenon and rarely if ever occurred in the first 225 years of the nations existence despite the second amendment and the right to bear arms.
What is causing young men to do this now when they didn't before? Maybe we should be asking that question?
France is gun free but it didn't stop the Bataclan massacre - because you actually have to want to go out an commit such horrible acts whether guns are legal or not.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/21/marco-rubio-age-limit-rifles-421647
In June 2016, Rubio cited the mass shooting at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando as a major reason he leapt back into his Senate race, which he’d been weighing doing for months after failing in the presidential primaries. Rubio said that massacre had “impacted” him and made him feel he had to return to the Senate. He won, with NRA support. But in the nearly two years since, he has not championed any new gun legislation in Congress....