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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hurrah! Our sovereign parliament is taking back control!

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    Charles said:



    Ultimately that’s not about race, it’s about age/demographic profile. Part of the challenge is the character of Romanian immigration is young, single men willing to live cheaply to send money home

    Yes, interesting point (with the obvious reservation that all groups come in nicer and less nice versions). If we had lots of elderly immigrants pottering in alloments rather than lots of young men, I suspect reactions would alter. Employers, of course, would generally rather have the young blokes.
    Employers might but how about the other employees.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    The only instruction the British people has provided is that we should leave the EU. The details are up to the Executive.

    That's not really true.

    The Government have conflated the instruction to leave with the manner of leaving, hence all the nonsense that the transition period is a "betrayal of the vote"
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    Ultimately that’s not about race, it’s about age/demographic profile. Part of the challenge is the character of Romanian immigration is young, single men willing to live cheaply to send money home

    Yes, interesting point (with the obvious reservation that all groups come in nicer and less nice versions). If we had lots of elderly immigrants pottering in alloments rather than lots of young men, I suspect reactions would alter. Employers, of course, would generally rather have the young blokes.
    Not all employers - but employers of cheap unskilled/semiskilled employees do.

    To put it in perspective, one of my colleagues mentioned yesterday that her cleaner has a PhD in Economics from Kiev, but can earn more over here as a cleaner than she can there as an economist
    The Kiev cleaner probably also did not rack up £50K and more in student debt to get the PhD
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    edited February 2018
    Scott_P said:

    We will have more control, I think we will have (some) more money, there won't be big change to things we like, there will be no material impact on prosperity, and I can already see some things getting better: like agriculture and fisheries.

    Amazing.

    Every word of what you just said was wrong.
    Nope it was spot on. You are just too enslaved to your EUfanaticism to see it.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Nope it was spot on. You are just too enslaved to your EUfanaticism to see it.

    The day the scales of Brexit fall from your eyes will be a wonder to behold...
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    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    Ultimately that’s not about race, it’s about age/demographic profile. Part of the challenge is the character of Romanian immigration is young, single men willing to live cheaply to send money home

    Yes, interesting point (with the obvious reservation that all groups come in nicer and less nice versions). If we had lots of elderly immigrants pottering in alloments rather than lots of young men, I suspect reactions would alter. Employers, of course, would generally rather have the young blokes.
    Not all employers - but employers of cheap unskilled/semiskilled employees do.

    To put it in perspective, one of my colleagues mentioned yesterday that her cleaner has a PhD in Economics from Kiev, but can earn more over here as a cleaner than she can there as an economist
    We might have the best educated cleaners and potato pickers in the world.

    There is an irony that the UK is effectively wasting educated and skilled immigrants while also spending record amounts on DfID.
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    Scott_P said:

    Nope it was spot on. You are just too enslaved to your EUfanaticism to see it.

    The day the scales of Brexit fall from your eyes will be a wonder to behold...
    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Sandpit said:

    Yes. What’s really getting to a lot of Parliamentarians is that the Brexit negotiations are an international Treaty which is for negotiation by the Executive. Parliament will have the option to ratify the Treaty, or turn it down in its entirety, but can’t amend it.

    All the posturing about amendments to tie the government into some sort of “soft” Brexit just ensures the EU offer us a one-sided, 11th-hour take-it-or-leave-it deal which is the worst of all worlds.


    But whether you believe that or not - whether you think it will be good or bad for the negotiations, or the country, or the Tory party - it is the job of Parliament to hold the executive to account. The prerogative powers were always an anachronism and we have slowly - and quite rightly- be denuding them over the last couple of decades.

    Parliament is supposed to be the representative body of the people directing the Government on what it can and cannot do. The Government only governs with Parliamentary consent. Why should that apply to domestic issues but not to international ones which arguably are even more important given the difficulty in later changing them.

    Do I want Parliament to vote for us to stay in the Customs Union? No of course not. But do I think they should have the right to do so if they see fit? Yes absolutely. As should everyone who voted for Brexit for constitutional rather than immigration reasons.
    Good morning all.

    This is a very important point, and it's good that you share my views (or vice versa).

    There's no doubt that the EUref campaigns and their aftermath have been very ugly and divisive, and the amount of abuse from both sides has been quite shocking. That's going to be a lasting challenge no matter what happens; there's no sense of a middle ground any longer, just Ultras screaming at each other. Ed West has written an interesting article on the topic:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/citizenship-is-dead/

    However, in terms of constitutional matters, I think things are working well; May's disastrous election campaign has partially neutered her own hardliners, parliament is doing its job and we're seeing proper levels of scrutiny, no matter how uncomfortable it makes ministers.

    It's going to be very important for the country that whatever outcome is achieved, it's done in a right and proper fashion; a few points of economic growth is neither here nor there, but fucking with the workings of our democracy will do really lasting harm.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think May personally has a problem with staying in the Customs Union, it is only hard Brexiteers on her backbenches who oppose remaining in it.

    If she remains committed to leaving it until Parliament votes to stay in she can say she has done everything she can but in the end had to bow to the sovereign will of Parliament.

    how Tory.

    Morning Malc! :D

    You ready to freeze in the Highlands next week? :D
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    Scott_P said:

    Nope it was spot on. You are just too enslaved to your EUfanaticism to see it.

    The day the scales of Brexit fall from your eyes will be a wonder to behold...
    Given that so far you have been wrong in every one of your predictions I am not all that concerned about that day ever arriving.

    Of course your problem is that for you that day should have arrived long ago but you remain just as blind as you ever were.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,797
    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited February 2018

    I am not all that concerned about that day ever arriving.

    Which will make it even more entertaining
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    Scott_P said:

    I am not all that concerned about that day ever arriving.

    Which will make it ever more entertaining
    What if it doesn't end up as you hope? Are you going to emigrate to a genuine basket case of a country, just so you can wallow in the misery?
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    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    edited February 2018
    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    Interesting to see that it was net non EU immigration that was keeping the figures high in the latest ONS stats, at a net increase of 205 000, mostly from Asia and Africa.

    Lots more than the "tens of thousands" Tory pledge. It is quite likely that the only difference Brexit makes to immigration is making it less European, with the numbers much the same.

    To a lot of people "taking back control of our borders" will look illusory, or even fraudulent.

    I couldn't care less. Do you care? Do you view non EU migration as bad or worse because they're not ethnically Europeans?

    Non European migrants are entering the country on merit due to the standards we set not because of free movement.
    Immigration fears were a great driver of Brexit voting. I can see that many will be disappointed if net non EU migration remainsrabove 200 000. A new city the size of Leicester every two years.
    People are more concerned about Romanians moving to their street than they are Africans moving to London.

    Indeed, a remainer friend of mine has just lived through this. She's had Nigerian neighbours for the last two years, they've sold and an "investor" bought the house who has rented it out as a HMO to five Romanians. A few days ago she said "I get why people voted leave" and was asking for advice on how to have the landlord sanctioned and the people evicted. Her reasons - they are loud, they play music late into the night, they shout at each other all the time, they leave rubbish out on the front lawn, they are constantly drunk and they "leer" at her when she leaves the house if they are on the front lawn.

    She used to wear "living next to Africans" as a badge of non-racist/leaver honour.
    Ultimately that’s not about race, it’s about age/demographic profile. Part of the challenge is the character of Romanian immigration is young, single men willing to live cheaply to send money home
    Agreed, but that's part of what drove the leave vote, young Eastern European men making life misery for their neighbours. And was pointed out earlier, there is a correlation between leave voting areas and Eastern European immigration.

    If a week of living next to some of them can switch one of the most ardent remainers I know to leave, then I absolutely see where the vote was won.
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    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    How upsetting it must have been for you.

    Expecting a recession, pensions to be cut in a Punishment Budget, a million more unemployed, house prices to collapse and all the rest.

    And what were you finally reduced to ?

    Pasting tweets about a 5p rise on a pack of fishfingers.

    Now look what I got:

    The best manufacturing and houe building for decades, the stock market at record highs, productivity improving and the trade and budget deficits falling.

    LOL
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,797

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    It added about 1% to the rate of inflation, but that will subside in the coming year.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Are you going to emigrate to a genuine basket case of a country

    Would have been a damn sight easier with FoM...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Now look what I got:

    The best manufacturing and houe building for decades, the stock market at record highs, productivity improving and the trade and budget deficits falling.

    All while member of the EU

    It almost as if the rhetoric that they were holding us back was TOTAL BOLLOCKS!

    And you fell for it :smiley:
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    rawzerrawzer Posts: 189

    Sandpit said:

    Yes. What’s really getting to a lot of Parliamentarians is that the Brexit negotiations are an international Treaty which is for negotiation by the Executive. Parliament will have the option to ratify the Treaty, or turn it down in its entirety, but can’t amend it.

    All the posturing about amendments to tie the government into some sort of “soft” Brexit just ensures the EU offer us a one-sided, 11th-hour take-it-or-leave-it deal which is the worst of all worlds.


    But whether you believe that or not - whether you think it will be good or bad for the negotiations, or the country, or the Tory party - it is the job of Parliament to hold the executive to account. The prerogative powers were always an anachronism and we have slowly - and quite rightly- be denuding them over the last couple of decades.

    Parliament is supposed to be the representative body of the people directing the Government on what it can and cannot do. The Government only governs with Parliamentary consent. Why should that apply to domestic issues but not to international ones which arguably are even more important given the difficulty in later changing them.

    Do I want Parliament to vote for us to stay in the Customs Union? No of course not. But do I think they should have the right to do so if they see fit? Yes absolutely. As should everyone who voted for Brexit for constitutional rather than immigration reasons.
    This is a really classy post. It reminds me why I waste so much time on here.
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    Scott_P said:

    Are you going to emigrate to a genuine basket case of a country

    Would have been a damn sight easier with FoM...
    Best run off now, mate. Once the EU stop recognising our Driving Licences and wipe their arses on our blue passports at the airport every time we try and have a few days in the sun, it won't be so easy.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    Do you think the fall in sterling was predictable?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Once the EU stop recognising our Driving Licences and wipe their arses on our blue passports at the airport every time we try and have a few days in the sun, it won't be so easy.

    Brexit's a bitch, eh?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    Which is probably a good thing, it's forced businesses to improve productivity and invest to do so and made the economy less reliant on British consumers spending (borrowed) money on imported tat.
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    Scott_P said:

    Once the EU stop recognising our Driving Licences and wipe their arses on our blue passports at the airport every time we try and have a few days in the sun, it won't be so easy.

    Brexit's a bitch, eh?
    It definitely has the potential to be, but not many people are praying for it like you.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    HYUFD said:

    I don't think May personally has a problem with staying in the Customs Union, it is only hard Brexiteers on her backbenches who oppose remaining in it.

    If she remains committed to leaving it until Parliament votes to stay in she can say she has done everything she can but in the end had to bow to the sovereign will of Parliament.


    May is fighting on a number of fronts...the Parliamentary Tory Party that thinks she’s useless, blame her for the last election And would rather forget about Brexit; the Moggwits, the frothy eyed ideologies who obsess about Brexit; a divided Cabinet where she has no friends; the Parliamentary majority that by and large want a Brexit INO and will probably vote against anything else; a devious opposition that is being deliberately non commital and vague so it can seize the opportunity to bring down the Govt when the moment arises; a particularly hostile press; and the EU who are playing hardball......

    May’s natural fit is to sidle up to the EU and the Brexit INO Parliamentarians....ultimately that is the only viable option available to her I guess. And she is still doomed personally, but at least she walks away with some kind of dignity, without bringing political chaos, and most probably a Corbyn led Govt...
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
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    Scott_P said:

    Now look what I got:

    The best manufacturing and houe building for decades, the stock market at record highs, productivity improving and the trade and budget deficits falling.

    All while member of the EU

    It almost as if the rhetoric that they were holding us back was TOTAL BOLLOCKS!

    And you fell for it :smiley:
    So the near half TRILLION pound current account deficit during the past five years is also because of EU membership then.

    Or maybe George Osborne bears some responsbility as well ?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    edited February 2018

    Scott_P said:

    Nope it was spot on. You are just too enslaved to your EUfanaticism to see it.

    The day the scales of Brexit fall from your eyes will be a wonder to behold...
    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?
    It's not just a recession he expected. It's a recession that was his only argument for staying in the EU.... Something went bust - just not the economy!
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    Tusk and Barnier starting to sound a little isolated and desparate about no cherry picking when existing arrangements with the likes of Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine already allow bespoke arrangements.

    Looks like arrangements will vary sector by sector.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,843

    Sandpit said:

    Yes. What’s really getting to a lot of Parliamentarians is that the Brexit negotiations are an international Treaty which is for negotiation by the Executive. Parliament will have the option to ratify the Treaty, or turn it down in its entirety, but can’t amend it.

    All the posturing about amendments to tie the government into some sort of “soft” Brexit just ensures the EU offer us a one-sided, 11th-hour take-it-or-leave-it deal which is the worst of all worlds.


    But whether you believe that or not - whether you think it will be good or bad for the negotiations, or the country, or the Tory party - it is the job of Parliament to hold the executive to account. The prerogative powers were always an anachronism and we have slowly - and quite rightly- be denuding them over the last couple of decades.

    Parliament is supposed to be the representative body of the people directing the Government on what it can and cannot do. The Government only governs with Parliamentary consent. Why should that apply to domestic issues but not to international ones which arguably are even more important given the difficulty in later changing them.

    Do I want Parliament to vote for us to stay in the Customs Union? No of course not. But do I think they should have the right to do so if they see fit? Yes absolutely. As should everyone who voted for Brexit for constitutional rather than immigration reasons.
    I agree entirely with your sentiment, although I disagree with the timing. There should of course be time for Parliament to debate the Treaty that emerges from the negotiations, but trying to insert themselves into the process before the negotiations happen is tying the hands of our own side and making a crap deal much more likely.
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    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    'If a week of living next to some of them can switch one of the most ardent remainers I know to leave, then I absolutely see where the vote was won'

    In reality any family or single person living next to or near a house full of ten young men in their twenties with few or no women to keep them under control probably isn't going to have much of a fun time with the drinking and the parties and the noise. The poor experience it - the better off generally don't.

    Of course until it happens to you - which it rarely does in wealthier areas where rents and house prices are high yet - any objection is of course just just bigotry and racism. Until of course it happens to the Waitrose classes - it's not a problem!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    edited February 2018
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think May personally has a problem with staying in the Customs Union, it is only hard Brexiteers on her backbenches who oppose remaining in it.

    If she remains committed to leaving it until Parliament votes to stay in she can say she has done everything she can but in the end had to bow to the sovereign will of Parliament.


    May is fighting on a number of fronts...the Parliamentary Tory Party that thinks she’s useless, blame her for the last election And would rather forget about Brexit; the Moggwits, the frothy eyed ideologies who obsess about Brexit; a divided Cabinet where she has no friends; the Parliamentary majority that by and large want a Brexit INO and will probably vote against anything else; a devious opposition that is being deliberately non commital and vague so it can seize the opportunity to bring down the Govt when the moment arises; a particularly hostile press; and the EU who are playing hardball......

    May’s natural fit is to sidle up to the EU and the Brexit INO Parliamentarians....ultimately that is the only viable option available to her I guess. And she is still doomed personally, but at least she walks away with some kind of dignity, without bringing political chaos, and most probably a Corbyn led Govt...
    I think May's own personal Brexit position is pretty close to Corbyn's, ie Brexit but more Brexit INO than hard Brexit, including staying in the Customs Union if necessary to protect the economy but leaving the single market to impose a few new migration controls.

    Both May and Corbyn backed Remain at the referendum but with no enthusiasm, neither care about the EU as much as say Umunna on the soft Brexit, former strong Remainer side or Rees Mogg on the hard Brexit, former strong Leaver, straight to WTO terms side
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,843

    Scott_P said:

    Are you going to emigrate to a genuine basket case of a country

    Would have been a damn sight easier with FoM...
    Best run off now, mate. Once the EU stop recognising our Driving Licences and wipe their arses on our blue passports at the airport every time we try and have a few days in the sun, it won't be so easy.
    I think the EU elites, reading the British papers and watching the TV, considerably underestimate the sentiment that led to Brexit. They seriously think that a large majority want to overturn Brexit, because that is the view of a large majority of the Brits they speak to and listen to. I’m not sure they understand that every threat they make about things like driving licences adds a couple of percent to the “walk away now and be done with the EU” column.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited February 2018
    Those YouGov numbers regarding that Corbyn story don’t surprise me at all. I don’t know why the right wing press persist on thinking that that strategy will work. The Tories will have to give voters reasons to vote for them, and not simply just against Jeremy Corbyn if they want to win a majority next time.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited February 2018
    Scott_P said:

    Once the EU stop recognising our Driving Licences and wipe their arses on our blue passports at the airport every time we try and have a few days in the sun, it won't be so easy.

    Brexit's a bitch, eh?
    It's a two way street of course.

    You can buy an international driving permit for £5.50 at the post office - it allows you to use your driving licence in up to 140 countries and lasts a year. Less than the price of a coffee and croissant at the airport! Have you never driven outside the EU? How do people manage those fly drive holidays in the US or other non EU nations?

    And our blue passports or whatever colour they are will still allow visa free travel to nearly 170 nations - in most cases for three or even six months. The only place I ever face queues at immigration bar the US is coming back home. So again I expect we will cope.

    Cos Spain really wants to p off its largest source of tourists - 10 million a year - by forcing them to travel by bus everywhere cos they can't drive a car or hire one?

    Of course one thing Brexit might teach us is that there is a big wide world out there. And the world isn't going to end either on 29 March 2019 - despite the endless doom and gloom and negativity of some remoaners,
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    brendan16 said:

    'If a week of living next to some of them can switch one of the most ardent remainers I know to leave, then I absolutely see where the vote was won'

    In reality any family or single person living next to or near a house full of ten young men in their twenties with few or no women to keep them under control probably isn't going to have much of a fun time with the drinking and the parties and the noise. The poor experience it - the better off generally don't.

    Of course until it happens to you - which it rarely does in wealthier areas where rents and house prices are high yet - any objection is of course just just bigotry and racism. Until of course it happens to the Waitrose classes - it's not a problem!

    To be fair the 'ten to a house' might all be hard working, law abiding, polite and friendly.

    But that doesn't mean people want them living next door, coming and going at all hours and with four old bangers filling up the roadside.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.

    It's also worth remembering that RPI and CPI don't really represent reality for the JAMs.
    CPI is a very middle class measure. Almost a quarter of the basket weighting is for recreation, leisure and hotel stays, versus 8% for food. Basic foodstuffs have gone up a lot - e.g. porridge oats have doubled in price since '14.

    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    MaxPB said:



    Agreed, but that's part of what drove the leave vote, young Eastern European men making life misery for their neighbours. And was pointed out earlier, there is a correlation between leave voting areas and Eastern European immigration.
    .

    I’d be interested to see a source for that claim.
    It’s possible - but given that we know the leave vote was correlated with low immigration... it seems unlikely to be a very strong correlation...
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    brendan16 said:

    'If a week of living next to some of them can switch one of the most ardent remainers I know to leave, then I absolutely see where the vote was won'

    In reality any family or single person living next to or near a house full of ten young men in their twenties with few or no women to keep them under control probably isn't going to have much of a fun time with the drinking and the parties and the noise. The poor experience it - the better off generally don't.

    Of course until it happens to you - which it rarely does in wealthier areas where rents and house prices are high yet - any objection is of course just just bigotry and racism. Until of course it happens to the Waitrose classes - it's not a problem!

    To be fair the 'ten to a house' might all be hard working, law abiding, polite and friendly.

    But that doesn't mean people want them living next door, coming and going at all hours and with four old bangers filling up the roadside.
    They may be. But more people inevitably means more noise, more comings and goings at all Hours if they are on shifts, and just more disruption. And of course even the nicest 20 year olds like to party and have a drink on occasion. If you are a couple with young kids or a housebound elderly person it might not be much fun.

    And because it mainly happens in poorer communities no one much cares. And anyone who objects just gets the usual accusation from the sort of people who would probably burst into tears and be complaining to all and sundry if it happened in their posh road.
  • Options
    TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    'If a week of living next to some of them can switch one of the most ardent remainers I know to leave, then I absolutely see where the vote was won'

    In reality any family or single person living next to or near a house full of ten young men in their twenties with few or no women to keep them under control probably isn't going to have much of a fun time with the drinking and the parties and the noise. The poor experience it - the better off generally don't.

    Of course until it happens to you - which it rarely does in wealthier areas where rents and house prices are high yet - any objection is of course just just bigotry and racism. Until of course it happens to the Waitrose classes - it's not a problem!

    To be fair the 'ten to a house' might all be hard working, law abiding, polite and friendly.

    But that doesn't mean people want them living next door, coming and going at all hours and with four old bangers filling up the roadside.
    They may be. But more people inevitably means more noise, more comings and goings at all Hours if they are on shifts, and just more disruption. And of course even the nicest 20 year olds like to party and have a drink on occasion. If you are a couple with young kids or a housebound elderly person it might not be much fun.

    And because it mainly happens in poorer communities no one much cares. And anyone who objects just gets the usual accusation from the sort of people who would probably burst into tears and be complaining to all and sundry if it happened in their posh road.
    This is why we have long needed to alter our planing laws so that buildings may be designated in zones for 'Residential' use (i.e. for a single family or those of a familial relationship to dwell therein). In this circumstance then the onus would be on the renter/owner of the property to show that it was not being used as a hostelry or workers annex without distinct planning permission to re register the dwelling as such.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    TonyE said:

    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    'If a week of living next to some of them can switch one of the most ardent remainers I know to leave, then I absolutely see where the vote was won'

    In reality any family or single person living next to or near a house full of ten young men in their twenties with few or no women to keep them under control probably isn't going to have much of a fun time with the drinking and the parties and the noise. The poor experience it - the better off generally don't.

    Of course until it happens to you - which it rarely does in wealthier areas where rents and house prices are high yet - any objection is of course just just bigotry and racism. Until of course it happens to the Waitrose classes - it's not a problem!

    To be fair the 'ten to a house' might all be hard working, law abiding, polite and friendly.

    But that doesn't mean people want them living next door, coming and going at all hours and with four old bangers filling up the roadside.
    They may be. But more people inevitably means more noise, more comings and goings at all Hours if they are on shifts, and just more disruption. And of course even the nicest 20 year olds like to party and have a drink on occasion. If you are a couple with young kids or a housebound elderly person it might not be much fun.

    And because it mainly happens in poorer communities no one much cares. And anyone who objects just gets the usual accusation from the sort of people who would probably burst into tears and be complaining to all and sundry if it happened in their posh road.
    This is why we have long needed to alter our planing laws so that buildings may be designated in zones for 'Residential' use (i.e. for a single family or those of a familial relationship to dwell therein). In this circumstance then the onus would be on the renter/owner of the property to show that it was not being used as a hostelry or workers annex without distinct planning permission to re register the dwelling as such.
    Seems sensible.
  • Options
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.

    It's also worth remembering that RPI and CPI don't really represent reality for the JAMs.
    CPI is a very middle class measure. Almost a quarter of the basket weighting is for recreation, leisure and hotel stays, versus 8% for food. Basic foodstuffs have gone up a lot - e.g. porridge oats have doubled in price since '14.

    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Porridge oats are the same price that they've been for years ie £3 for 2kg:

    https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/products/252329675?sc_cmp=ppc*GHS+-+Grocery+-+New*PX+|+Shopping+GSC+|+Top+Offers+++Tesco+Brand*PRODUCT+GROUP252329675*&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIgOmF9ce-2QIVK7HtCh0KDguWEAQYAiABEgLpyPD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

    And only 85p per kg at Lidl:

    https://www.lidl.co.uk/en/Products.htm?articleId=4760

    Now if people let themselves be ripped off ...

    I am aware that its easier for people with spare money to make use of special offers.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Those YouGov numbers regarding that Corbyn story don’t surprise me at all. I don’t know why the right wing press persist on thinking that that strategy will work. The Tories will have to give voters reasons to vote for them, and not simply just against Jeremy Corbyn if they want to win a majority next time.

    Those YouGov numbers regarding that Corbyn story don’t surprise me at all. I don’t know why the right wing press persist on thinking that that strategy will work. The Tories will have to give voters reasons to vote for them, and not simply just against Jeremy Corbyn if they want to win a majority next time.

    The Tories have a real blind spot here. It's priced in. He took two convicted IRA folk into the HoP two weeks after they tried to assassinate Thatcher and her cabinet, killing and crippling several. If that doesn't turn you off, nothing will.

    In 'Fall Out', Shipman made the point that the Tories offered no joy, no cause for optimism, no real vision other than empty slogans. It was all blood, sweat, tears and toil without the gratification of defeating fascism.

    They need to think much, much harder about their offer to voters, because 'we're a bit heartless but economically competent' is a busted flush.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692
    edited February 2018
    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Once the EU stop recognising our Driving Licences and wipe their arses on our blue passports at the airport every time we try and have a few days in the sun, it won't be so easy.

    Brexit's a bitch, eh?
    It's a two way street of course.

    You can buy an international driving permit for £5.50 at the post office - it allows you to use your driving licence in up to 140 countries and lasts a year. Less than the price of a coffee and croissant at the airport! Have you never driven outside the EU? How do people manage those fly drive holidays in the US or other non EU nations?

    And our blue passports or whatever colour they are will still allow visa free travel to nearly 170 nations - in most cases for three or even six months. The only place I ever face queues at immigration bar the US is coming back home. So again I expect we will cope.

    Cos Spain really wants to p off its largest source of tourists - 10 million a year - by forcing them to travel by bus everywhere cos they can't drive a car or hire one?

    Of course one thing Brexit might teach us is that there is a big wide world out there. And the world isn't going to end either on 29 March 2019 - despite the endless doom and gloom and negativity of some remoaners,
    Indeed. Brexit in its least damaging scenarios just means extra red tape, fees and "control" by jobsworths.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2018
    Political insurgents Jeremy Corbyn and Donald Trump continue to rise in the polls it seems:

    "Donald Trump's approval rating rises to 50 per cent in new poll"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/23/donald-trumps-approval-rating-rises-50-per-cent/
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.

    It's also worth remembering that RPI and CPI don't really represent reality for the JAMs.
    CPI is a very middle class measure. Almost a quarter of the basket weighting is for recreation, leisure and hotel stays, versus 8% for food. Basic foodstuffs have gone up a lot - e.g. porridge oats have doubled in price since '14.

    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Porridge oats are the same price that they've been for years ie £3 for 2kg:

    https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/products/252329675?sc_cmp=ppc*GHS+-+Grocery+-+New*PX+|+Shopping+GSC+|+Top+Offers+++Tesco+Brand*PRODUCT+GROUP252329675*&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIgOmF9ce-2QIVK7HtCh0KDguWEAQYAiABEgLpyPD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

    And only 85p per kg at Lidl:

    https://www.lidl.co.uk/en/Products.htm?articleId=4760

    Now if people let themselves be ripped off ...

    I am aware that its easier for people with spare money to make use of special offers.
    Damn you Sainsburys! Thanks for the correction Richard, please forgive my fallibility ;).
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,843
  • Options
    John_M said:

    Those YouGov numbers regarding that Corbyn story don’t surprise me at all. I don’t know why the right wing press persist on thinking that that strategy will work. The Tories will have to give voters reasons to vote for them, and not simply just against Jeremy Corbyn if they want to win a majority next time.

    Those YouGov numbers regarding that Corbyn story don’t surprise me at all. I don’t know why the right wing press persist on thinking that that strategy will work. The Tories will have to give voters reasons to vote for them, and not simply just against Jeremy Corbyn if they want to win a majority next time.

    The Tories have a real blind spot here. It's priced in. He took two convicted IRA folk into the HoP two weeks after they tried to assassinate Thatcher and her cabinet, killing and crippling several. If that doesn't turn you off, nothing will.

    In 'Fall Out', Shipman made the point that the Tories offered no joy, no cause for optimism, no real vision other than empty slogans. It was all blood, sweat, tears and toil without the gratification of defeating fascism.

    They need to think much, much harder about their offer to voters, because 'we're a bit heartless but economically competent' is a busted flush.
    The likes of May and Hammond don't do joy, optimism or vision.

    And when Cameron and Osborne decided to pander to the old while crapping all over the young they lost touch with aspiration.

    'Everyone who works full time will be able to buy a house under a Conservative government' would have been a better idea than triple lock pensions.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,797
    AndyJS said:
    Really, no change. The parties are within 1% of each other, but occasionally, polls give one of them a fair-sized lead.
  • Options
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.

    It's also worth remembering that RPI and CPI don't really represent reality for the JAMs.
    CPI is a very middle class measure. Almost a quarter of the basket weighting is for recreation, leisure and hotel stays, versus 8% for food. Basic foodstuffs have gone up a lot - e.g. porridge oats have doubled in price since '14.

    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Porridge oats are the same price that they've been for years ie £3 for 2kg:

    https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/products/252329675?sc_cmp=ppc*GHS+-+Grocery+-+New*PX+|+Shopping+GSC+|+Top+Offers+++Tesco+Brand*PRODUCT+GROUP252329675*&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIgOmF9ce-2QIVK7HtCh0KDguWEAQYAiABEgLpyPD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

    And only 85p per kg at Lidl:

    https://www.lidl.co.uk/en/Products.htm?articleId=4760

    Now if people let themselves be ripped off ...

    I am aware that its easier for people with spare money to make use of special offers.
    Damn you Sainsburys! Thanks for the correction Richard, please forgive my fallibility ;).
    Sainsburys does seem to be expensive and without the special offers that Tesco, Asda and Morrisons have.

    I'm not sure what demographic its aiming at.
  • Options
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.

    It's also worth remembering that RPI and CPI don't really represent reality for the JAMs.
    CPI is a very middle class measure. Almost a quarter of the basket weighting is for recreation, leisure and hotel stays, versus 8% for food. Basic foodstuffs have gone up a lot - e.g. porridge oats have doubled in price since '14.

    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Basic foodstuffs have not gone up a lot - at least not those I am buying.

    Just to take two of the most basic:

    Milk was an average of 31.59p/ltr in 2014 and 28.7p/ltr in 2017.
    Bread was 119p for an 800g loaf in January 2014. It was 107p for the same loaf in January 2018.
  • Options
    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    The trends your friend.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.


    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Basic foodstuffs have not gone up a lot - at least not those I am buying.

    Just to take two of the most basic:

    Milk was an average of 31.59p/ltr in 2014 and 28.7p/ltr in 2017.
    Bread was 119p for an 800g loaf in January 2014. It was 107p for the same loaf in January 2018.
    Now my entire thesis has fallen around my ears. Oh, the humiliation!

    Off to walk the dogs before PB kicks me in the knackers, just to complete the day :).
  • Options
    What did New Labour do for the non-elite? Nothing. They may as well all join the Tories:

    https://twitter.com/TorstenBell/status/966595099315638272
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    Sandpit said:
    Is Dianes son in school thought he was 27 years old
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,918

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.

    It's also worth remembering that RPI and CPI don't really represent reality for the JAMs.
    CPI is a very middle class measure. Almost a quarter of the basket weighting is for recreation, leisure and hotel stays, versus 8% for food. Basic foodstuffs have gone up a lot - e.g. porridge oats have doubled in price since '14.

    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Basic foodstuffs have not gone up a lot - at least not those I am buying.

    Just to take two of the most basic:

    Milk was an average of 31.59p/ltr in 2014 and 28.7p/ltr in 2017.
    Bread was 119p for an 800g loaf in January 2014. It was 107p for the same loaf in January 2018.
    The Peoples Food has gone up by about 20p a pint since 2014
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited February 2018
    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:
    Really, no change. The parties are within 1% of each other, but occasionally, polls give one of them a fair-sized lead.
    Agreed. That tweet is reading far too much into those changes.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.


    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Basic foodstuffs have not gone up a lot - at least not those I am buying.

    Just to take two of the most basic:

    Milk was an average of 31.59p/ltr in 2014 and 28.7p/ltr in 2017.
    Bread was 119p for an 800g loaf in January 2014. It was 107p for the same loaf in January 2018.
    Now my entire thesis has fallen around my ears. Oh, the humiliation!

    Off to walk the dogs before PB kicks me in the knackers, just to complete the day :).
    Food price inflation running at about 4%. It was negative for a while.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/food-inflation
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
  • Options
    I think this could be described as abject.

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/967397043386880001
  • Options

    I think this could be described as abject.

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/967397043386880001

    Too many tweets ...
  • Options

    I think this could be described as abject.

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/967397043386880001

    Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bloke :-D

  • Options

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.

    It's also worth remembering that RPI and CPI don't really represent reality for the JAMs.
    CPI is a very middle class measure. Almost a quarter of the basket weighting is for recreation, leisure and hotel stays, versus 8% for food. Basic foodstuffs have gone up a lot - e.g. porridge oats have doubled in price since '14.

    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Basic foodstuffs have not gone up a lot - at least not those I am buying.

    Just to take two of the most basic:

    Milk was an average of 31.59p/ltr in 2014 and 28.7p/ltr in 2017.
    Bread was 119p for an 800g loaf in January 2014. It was 107p for the same loaf in January 2018.
    The Peoples Food has gone up by about 20p a pint since 2014
    While beer can be bought for under £1 a bottle and wine for under £5 a bottle things will never be all bad.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    I think this could be described as abject.

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/967397043386880001

    I wonder who is next on JC's list?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    edited February 2018
    Jew baiters to the left of me, xenophobes to the right, here I am stuck in the middle and screwed.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    I think this could be described as abject.

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/967397043386880001

    How strange, weren't PB Tories telling us how Corbyn had backed himself into a corner and this was sure to backfire on him?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,918

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.

    It's also worth remembering that RPI and CPI don't really represent reality for the JAMs.
    CPI is a very middle class measure. Almost a quarter of the basket weighting is for recreation, leisure and hotel stays, versus 8% for food. Basic foodstuffs have gone up a lot - e.g. porridge oats have doubled in price since '14.

    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Basic foodstuffs have not gone up a lot - at least not those I am buying.

    Just to take two of the most basic:

    Milk was an average of 31.59p/ltr in 2014 and 28.7p/ltr in 2017.
    Bread was 119p for an 800g loaf in January 2014. It was 107p for the same loaf in January 2018.
    The Peoples Food has gone up by about 20p a pint since 2014
    While beer can be bought for under £1 a bottle and wine for under £5 a bottle things will never be all bad.
    Not the same drinking beer at home, though. Prefer the social atmosphere of the pub. Wife and I drink wine with meals though, so that’s at home.
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.


    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Basic foodstuffs have not gone up a lot - at least not those I am buying.

    Just to take two of the most basic:

    Milk was an average of 31.59p/ltr in 2014 and 28.7p/ltr in 2017.
    Bread was 119p for an 800g loaf in January 2014. It was 107p for the same loaf in January 2018.
    Now my entire thesis has fallen around my ears. Oh, the humiliation!

    Off to walk the dogs before PB kicks me in the knackers, just to complete the day :).
    Food price inflation running at about 4%. It was negative for a while.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/food-inflation
    CPI Food index:

    Jan 2013 102.1
    Jan 2018 102.0

    By comparison

    Jan 2008 79.4
    Jan 2013 102.1

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7c8/mm23
  • Options

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.

    It's also worth remembering that RPI and CPI don't really represent reality for the JAMs.
    CPI is a very middle class measure. Almost a quarter of the basket weighting is for recreation, leisure and hotel stays, versus 8% for food. Basic foodstuffs have gone up a lot - e.g. porridge oats have doubled in price since '14.

    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Basic foodstuffs have not gone up a lot - at least not those I am buying.

    Just to take two of the most basic:

    Milk was an average of 31.59p/ltr in 2014 and 28.7p/ltr in 2017.
    Bread was 119p for an 800g loaf in January 2014. It was 107p for the same loaf in January 2018.
    The Peoples Food has gone up by about 20p a pint since 2014
    How much of that is tax though :)
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited February 2018

    Jew baiters to the left of me, xenophobes to the right, here I am stuck in the middle and screwed.

    It's not ideal ..... but as a Clarkite, I'm keeping my card in case it comes a to vote for our next leader! The reds have made their move from the centre and they aren't coming back. Pay the sub and join the blues.... if only for a while...
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    edited February 2018
    Apparently Govt sources have already indicated that the Customs Union amendment won't be voted on until after the May Local elections.

    If it can be put off that long, why not just put the whole thing off until at least October when supposedly the "exit agreement" will have been negotiated?

    The formal leaving date is 29 March 2019 - is there any reason why any Brexit related legislation needs Royal Assent any significant length of time before then?

    If not, I think the answer will have to be to stall all legislation and then come to Parliament with the "deal" post October and take all necessary legislation through Parliament after that.
  • Options
    Ben Bradley well and truly scored an own goal. I can’t say I feel sorry for him at all.
  • Options

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.

    It's also worth remembering that RPI and CPI don't really represent reality for the JAMs.
    CPI is a very middle class measure. Almost a quarter of the basket weighting is for recreation, leisure and hotel stays, versus 8% for food. Basic foodstuffs have gone up a lot - e.g. porridge oats have doubled in price since '14.

    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Basic foodstuffs have not gone up a lot - at least not those I am buying.

    Just to take two of the most basic:

    Milk was an average of 31.59p/ltr in 2014 and 28.7p/ltr in 2017.
    Bread was 119p for an 800g loaf in January 2014. It was 107p for the same loaf in January 2018.
    The Peoples Food has gone up by about 20p a pint since 2014
    While beer can be bought for under £1 a bottle and wine for under £5 a bottle things will never be all bad.
    Not the same drinking beer at home, though. Prefer the social atmosphere of the pub. Wife and I drink wine with meals though, so that’s at home.
    Well I aim to be drinking beer in a pub in about 3-4 hours so I know what you mean.

    I think beer drinking in your garden on a warm summer evening is pretty good as well.
  • Options
    Also, Labour are re-admitting Ken Livingstone? Seriously? So I’m still on track to vote for the Greens whenever the next GE is, then.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,918

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Were you disappointed that the recession you expected didn't happen ?

    I am disappointed that the fall in the value of Sterling made imports so much more expensive.

    But you can cheer up, plenty more to come...
    The fall in Sterling has pushed up my wine bill a bit, but apart from that, seems to have been pretty benign.
    It saved us from an immediate recession, but stored up inflation.
    This isn't inflation. This is inflation lite. We had aggregate RPI inflation over 70% between 74-77, and after I left school, over 50% between 78-82. We didn't get inflation under 2% until '93, courtesy of the recession.

    #FourYorkshiremen
    Apparently 3% CPI is too high and 5% HPI is too low.

    Though CPI being above 5% in both 2008 and 2011 was nothing to be concerened about.
    Let's be fair again. If you voted Remain, you not only lost the vote, but prices went up. Not much, but particularly for young people, low interest rates and ultra-low inflation is normal and customary, not the unique phenomenon it is compared to pre-2008.

    It's also worth remembering that RPI and CPI don't really represent reality for the JAMs.
    CPI is a very middle class measure. Almost a quarter of the basket weighting is for recreation, leisure and hotel stays, versus 8% for food. Basic foodstuffs have gone up a lot - e.g. porridge oats have doubled in price since '14.

    Some Leavers are over-sanguine, partly because they're wealthy, but also they have personal experience of different economic times.
    Basic foodstuffs have not gone up a lot - at least not those I am buying.

    Just to take two of the most basic:


    The Peoples Food has gone up by about 20p a pint since 2014
    While beer can be bought for under £1 a bottle and wine for under £5 a bottle things will never be all bad.
    Not the same drinking beer at home, though. Prefer the social atmosphere of the pub. Wife and I drink wine with meals though, so that’s at home.
    Well I aim to be drinking beer in a pub in about 3-4 hours so I know what you mean.

    I think beer drinking in your garden on a warm summer evening is pretty good as well.
    Yes, been doing that for the last month in Thailand. Beer’s not the same as here, though.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,843
    edited February 2018

    Ben Bradley well and truly scored an own goal. I can’t say I feel sorry for him at all.

    Yup, his comment was the wrong side of the line. Allegations that someone “sold secrets” need to be able to be backed up to the satisfaction of a judge.

    Another example of David Cameron’s maxim about Twitter.
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    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:
    Really, no change. The parties are within 1% of each other, but occasionally, polls give one of them a fair-sized lead.
    Agreed. That tweet is reading far too much into those changes.
    But Labour has never under Corbyn had a lead as large as Ed Miliband's in 2012. (12 points)
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Sandpit said:
    Is Dianes son in school thought he was 27 years old
    Perhaps she is saving up for the grandkids.

    What exactly are they doing standing behind that high wall anyway and what is on the other side?
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Also, Labour are re-admitting Ken Livingstone? Seriously? So I’m still on track to vote for the Greens whenever the next GE is, then.

    Yes it is easier to abstain in reality ,in a binary choice.However for many it will be a choice between a Corbyn government or 5 more years of a conservative one.You can sit on the fence and be saintly.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Yorkcity said:

    Also, Labour are re-admitting Ken Livingstone? Seriously? So I’m still on track to vote for the Greens whenever the next GE is, then.

    Yes it is easier to abstain in reality ,in a binary choice.However for many it will be a choice between a Corbyn government or 5 more years of a conservative one.You can sit on the fence and be saintly.
    Or vote Labour and tacitly support anti-semitism?
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Also, Labour are re-admitting Ken Livingstone? Seriously? So I’m still on track to vote for the Greens whenever the next GE is, then.

    Yes it is easier to abstain in reality ,in a binary choice.However for many it will be a choice between a Corbyn government or 5 more years of a conservative one.You can sit on the fence and be saintly.
    Or vote Labour and tacitly support anti-semitism?
    You would never vote Labour , so no worries.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    I think this could be described as abject.

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/967397043386880001

    That's fab! It's taken a long time but I think I'm just about sold on him.....OH! Jeremy Corbyn
    OH! Jeremy Corbyn....OH! Jeremy Corbyn....OH! Jeremy Corbyn
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    If I remember past posts correctly, Cyclefree and some other London residents like to go to lectures in their out-of-work-time. With that in mind, may I point out "The Price of Everything: The papers of William Beveridge and Arthur Bowley at LSE", a lecture at the Royal Statistical Society HQ at Errol Street on 9th March 2018? I won't be attending and I don't know what level it's pitched at so I can't make a recommendation, but what the hey.

    The link is here: https://events.rss.org.uk/rss/frontend/reg/thome.csp?pageID=59679&eventID=197
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Also, Labour are re-admitting Ken Livingstone? Seriously? So I’m still on track to vote for the Greens whenever the next GE is, then.

    Yes it is easier to abstain in reality ,in a binary choice.However for many it will be a choice between a Corbyn government or 5 more years of a conservative one.You can sit on the fence and be saintly.
    Or vote Labour and tacitly support anti-semitism?
    You would never vote Labour , so no worries.
    But neither will many more, if that lies behind a vote for Labour.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Also, Labour are re-admitting Ken Livingstone? Seriously? So I’m still on track to vote for the Greens whenever the next GE is, then.

    Classic lefty cop-out when you know they'd back Labour all the time.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    felix said:

    Also, Labour are re-admitting Ken Livingstone? Seriously? So I’m still on track to vote for the Greens whenever the next GE is, then.

    Classic lefty cop-out when you know they'd back Labour all the time.
    Or pain free choice if you live in a safe seat.

    Unless I move it doesn't matter how I vote as I will always have a Labour MP - same for probably two thirds of the country.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    I see Ben Bradley MP has issued a full retraction, an apology a substantial sum to a charity of Jezzas choice and costs to avoid legal action. Well done Jezza for standing up to lying Tories.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    Roger said:

    I think this could be described as abject.

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/967397043386880001

    That's fab! It's taken a long time but I think I'm just about sold on him.....OH! Jeremy Corbyn
    OH! Jeremy Corbyn....OH! Jeremy Corbyn....OH! Jeremy Corbyn
    Welcome on-board Comrade
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    I see Ben Bradley MP has issued a full retraction, an apology a substantial sum to a charity of Jezzas choice and costs to avoid legal action. Well done Jezza for standing up to lying Tories.

    Perhaps the main message should be think before you tweet!

    And that applies to politicians and others from all parties as its on Record for ever.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    brendan16 said:

    Sandpit said:
    Is Dianes son in school thought he was 27 years old
    Perhaps she is saving up for the grandkids.

    What exactly are they doing standing behind that high wall anyway and what is on the other side?
    Measuring it up for the glorious day presumably!!!!
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821

    brendan16 said:

    Sandpit said:
    Is Dianes son in school thought he was 27 years old
    Perhaps she is saving up for the grandkids.

    What exactly are they doing standing behind that high wall anyway and what is on the other side?
    Measuring it up for the glorious day presumably!!!!
    On second thoughts maybe the answer to what's on the other side of the walk is


    Czechoslovakia!!
This discussion has been closed.