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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn wins his legal action against the man TMay appointed pa

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  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Corbyn wins, obv, but this is not what "winning a legal action" actually means.

    Corbyn's won his legal action in the court of public opinion.

    Sorry but that’s balls. No one knows what the “court of public opinion” thinks yet about these allegations, least of all PB know-it-alls.

    There is some evidence that voters, particularly older Labour voters, are not impressed by hints of Corbyns lack

    of judgment (at the very least).

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    edited February 2018

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Corbyn wins, obv, but this is not what "winning a legal action" actually means.

    Corbyn's won his legal action in the court of public opinion.

    Sorry but that’s balls. No one knows what the “court of public opinion” thinks yet about these allegations, least of all PB know-it-alls.

    There is some evidence that voters, particularly older Labour voters, are not impressed by hints of Corbyns lack

    of judgment (at the very least).

    The YouGov poll shows what the public thinks of these allegations, plus other pollsters have also shown an increase in Labour's VI since the allegations emerged.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Corbyn wins, obv, but this is not what "winning a legal action" actually means.

    Corbyn's won his legal action in the court of public opinion.

    Sorry but that’s balls. No one knows what the “court of public opinion” thinks yet about these allegations, least of all PB know-it-alls.

    There is some evidence that voters, particularly older Labour voters, are not impressed by hints of Corbyns lack

    of judgment (at the very least).

    The YouGov poll shows what the public thinks of these allegations, plus other pollsters have also shown an increase in Labour's VI since the allegations emerged.
    Increase or MOE fluctuations?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Corbyn wins, obv, but this is not what "winning a legal action" actually means.

    Corbyn's won his legal action in the court of public opinion.

    Sorry but that’s balls. No one knows what the “court of public opinion” thinks yet about these allegations, least of all PB know-it-alls.

    There is some evidence that voters, particularly older Labour voters, are not impressed by hints of Corbyns lack

    of judgment (at the very least).

    The YouGov poll shows what the public thinks of these allegations, plus other pollsters have also shown an increase in Labour's VI since the allegations emerged.
    Increase or MOE fluctuations?
    Both. And of course you can be both. No evidence of decrease certainly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    SeanT straight to the point as ever
    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/967503004797685760
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Corbyn wins, obv, but this is not what "winning a legal action" actually means.

    Corbyn's won his legal action in the court of public opinion.

    Sorry but that’s balls. No one knows what the “court of public opinion” thinks yet about these allegations, least of all PB know-it-alls.

    There is some evidence that voters, particularly older Labour voters, are not impressed by hints of Corbyns lack

    of judgment (at the very least).

    The YouGov poll shows what the public thinks of these allegations, plus other pollsters have also shown an increase in Labour's VI since the allegations emerged.
    Increase or MOE fluctuations?
    MOE noise, but given the allegations being levelled, anything that didn't see a substantial fall in Labour's VI is a success.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    viewcode said:

    glw said:

    viewcode said:

    I find myself in a difficult position here. I can't imagine any mass-movement on social media based around hundreds or thousands of real people can match one based around millions or tens of millions of virtual people, particularly since generating and coordinating the latter is much easier than the former. But I don't know enough about the subject to judge. So I'll shut up.

    I think, and I'm not claiming any expertise, that mobilising real people to manipulate social media is harder for social networks to filter out that bots.

    If people who have multi-year otherwise normal posting records start upvoting some talking point, because they are paid of incentivized to do so, how do you test the sincerity of their vote? On the other hand it's easy to filter votes from new accounts, or accounts coming from particular routes, or accounts that have similar posting records.

    I'm presuming it works, because there sure seems to be a lot of it going on, and it costs real money.

    Of course if you can build bots that are indistinguishable from real users, then the super-bots win. I don't know how good the best bots are, and maybe there are already super-bots that look just like real users.
    It's a valid point (actually, more than one) but I've seen too much stupidity justified by "well it must work because money" to believe the money point. And as for the longevity point: well all that needs is forward planning or posting on sites that don't require longevity.

    Consider the following: if in an upcoming election somebody started posting here, or on Twitter, or a site specifically created that day, or somewhere else, then a real person reposted it, linked to it, or repeated it in a real post, then that would workaround your point. I think this is something that can be defeated thru sheer brute force and the known human trait to choose fake facts one likes and discard those real facts one doesn't.
    On a supplemental point: consider basicbridge's post below. 66posts, less than a year old. Real person? Bot? How would you prove it one way or the other?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    HYUFD said:
    Bloody coward has instigated a missile attack on Warsaw and f-ed off before the fall out.
    Traitor!
    What's wrong with British weather anyway?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    The morning thread mentions the Alternative Vote (AV) system.

    Please contain your excitement.

    "This thread is not about the Alternative Vote (AV) system".... :D
  • RobD said:

    The morning thread mentions the Alternative Vote (AV) system.

    Please contain your excitement.

    "This thread is not about the Alternative Vote (AV) system".... :D
    Actually the morning thread might now be afternoon thread.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited February 2018
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    Bloody coward has instigated a missile attack on Warsaw and f-ed off before the fall out.
    Traitor!
    What's wrong with British weather anyway?
    Nothing, when you can read about from an island in the Indian Ocean all expenses paid
  • dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    Bloody coward has instigated a missile attack on Warsaw and f-ed off before the fall out.
    Traitor!
    What's wrong with British weather anyway?
    The BBC Weather page is reporting 30 C but thunder and black clouds for quite a few days at Seychelles International Airport. Sean T should not go there or Praslin!
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Corbyn wins, obv, but this is not what "winning a legal action" actually means.

    Corbyn's won his legal action in the court of public opinion.

    Sorry but that’s balls. No one knows what the “court of public opinion” thinks yet about these allegations, least of all PB know-it-alls.

    There is some evidence that voters, particularly older Labour voters, are not impressed by hints of Corbyns lack

    of judgment (at the very least).

    The YouGov poll shows what the public thinks of these allegations, plus other pollsters have also shown an increase in Labour's VI since the allegations emerged.
    It shows nothing of the sort. Only PB obsessive think this makes any impression on the public in the short term and responses are in any case too short term and recent to mean anything.

    Longer term there is some evidence that traditional patriotic working class voters are not impressed by the implication that Corbyn has, at the very least , shown questionable judgment.

    We shall see...





  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Corbyn wins, obv, but this is not what "winning a legal action" actually means.

    Corbyn's won his legal action in the court of public opinion.

    Sorry but that’s balls. No one knows what the “court of public opinion” thinks yet about these allegations, least of all PB know-it-alls.

    There is some evidence that voters, particularly older Labour voters, are not impressed by hints of Corbyns lack

    of judgment (at the very least).

    The YouGov poll shows what the public thinks of these allegations, plus other pollsters have also shown an increase in Labour's VI since the allegations emerged.
    Increase or MOE fluctuations?
    MOE noise, but given the allegations being levelled, anything that didn't see a substantial fall in Labour's VI is a success.
    Sorry but this is just utter rot. Public opinion just doesn’t work like that, nor does the way people vote. The impact is deeper and subtler than this

  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Corbyn wins, obv, but this is not what "winning a legal action" actually means.

    Corbyn's won his legal action in the court of public opinion.

    Sorry but that’s balls. No one knows what the “court of public opinion” thinks yet about these allegations, least of all PB know-it-alls.

    There is some evidence that voters, particularly older Labour voters, are not impressed by hints of Corbyns lack

    of judgment (at the very least).

    The YouGov poll shows what the public thinks of these allegations, plus other pollsters have also shown an increase in Labour's VI since the allegations emerged.
    Increase or MOE fluctuations?

    Quite.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    Bloody coward has instigated a missile attack on Warsaw and f-ed off before the fall out.
    Traitor!
    What's wrong with British weather anyway?
    Nothing, when you can read about from an island in the Indian Ocean all expenses paid
    We survived Dunkirk mate. We can survive this.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Corbyn wins, obv, but this is not what "winning a legal action" actually means.

    Corbyn's won his legal action in the court of public opinion.

    Sorry but that’s balls. No one knows what the “court of public opinion” thinks yet about these allegations, least of all PB know-it-alls.

    There is some evidence that voters, particularly older Labour voters, are not impressed by hints of Corbyns lack

    of judgment (at the very least).

    The YouGov poll shows what the public thinks of these allegations, plus other pollsters have also shown an increase in Labour's VI since the allegations emerged.
    It shows nothing of the sort. Only PB obsessive think this makes any impression on the public in the short term and responses are in any case too short term and recent to mean anything.

    Longer term there is some evidence that traditional patriotic working class voters are not impressed by the implication that Corbyn has, at the very least , shown questionable judgment.

    We shall see...


    I heard all this when some PBers were going on about Corbyn's IRA links during the campaign.

    I said it was alreadypriced in
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    Bloody coward has instigated a missile attack on Warsaw and f-ed off before the fall out.
    Traitor!
    What's wrong with British weather anyway?
    Nothing, when you can read about from an island in the Indian Ocean all expenses paid
    We survived Dunkirk mate. We can survive this.
    True but batten down the hatches and turn the heating up as it is going to be a very cold week
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    Bloody coward has instigated a missile attack on Warsaw and f-ed off before the fall out.
    Traitor!
    What's wrong with British weather anyway?
    Nothing, when you can read about from an island in the Indian Ocean all expenses paid
    We survived Dunkirk mate. We can survive this.
    True but batten down the hatches and turn the heating up as it is going to be a very cold week
    I live near Newcastle...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Corbyn wins, obv, but this is not what "winning a legal action" actually means.

    Corbyn's won his legal action in the court of public opinion.

    Sorry but that’s balls. No one knows what the “court of public opinion” thinks yet about these allegations, least of all PB know-it-alls.

    There is some evidence that voters, particularly older Labour voters, are not impressed by hints of Corbyns lack

    of judgment (at the very least).

    pb'er always like to see evidence, dear boy. Where is it?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    Bloody coward has instigated a missile attack on Warsaw and f-ed off before the fall out.
    Traitor!
    What's wrong with British weather anyway?
    Nothing, when you can read about from an island in the Indian Ocean all expenses paid
    We survived Dunkirk mate. We can survive this.
    True but batten down the hatches and turn the heating up as it is going to be a very cold week
    I live near Newcastle...
    Even more so in your case then
  • I've done a very quick count and the answer is 2,160 voters across 15 seats.

    Labour gains 8 Tory seats.
    Labour gains 6 SNP seats.
    Labour gain 1 Plaid seat.

    Con 309 (-8)
    Lab 277 (+15)
    SNP 29 (-6)
    PC 3 (-1)
    LD 12
    Green 1
    DUP 10
    Sinn Fein 7
    Ind (Sylvia Hermon) 1
    Speaker 1

    Con + DUP + Ind = 320

    Lab confidence and supply from LD + SNP + Plaid + Green = 322

    (one wonders what they would want for their support!)

    The 2,160 would be lower if we ignore Lab gains from SNP and PC but I think they are needed so that Labour total looks more credible at 277 seats.



  • Corrosive substances were bought by children in a London borough suffering a record level of acid attacks, despite a voluntary crackdown in local shops, according to Newham Council.

    In four council enforcement tests, 11 of 23 retailers sold to a child.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43160074
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I've done a very quick count and the answer is 2,160 voters across 15 seats.

    Labour gains 8 Tory seats.
    Labour gains 6 SNP seats.
    Labour gain 1 Plaid seat.

    Con 309 (-8)
    Lab 277 (+15)
    SNP 29 (-6)
    PC 3 (-1)
    LD 12
    Green 1
    DUP 10
    Sinn Fein 7
    Ind (Sylvia Hermon) 1
    Speaker 1

    Con + DUP + Ind = 320

    Lab confidence and supply from LD + SNP + Plaid + Green = 322

    (one wonders what they would want for their support!)

    The 2,160 would be lower if we ignore Lab gains from SNP and PC but I think they are needed so that Labour total looks more credible at 277 seats.



    I suspect that Labour gains from SNP would be circa 20.
  • justin124 said:

    I've done a very quick count and the answer is 2,160 voters across 15 seats.

    Labour gains 8 Tory seats.
    Labour gains 6 SNP seats.
    Labour gain 1 Plaid seat.

    Con 309 (-8)
    Lab 277 (+15)
    SNP 29 (-6)
    PC 3 (-1)
    LD 12
    Green 1
    DUP 10
    Sinn Fein 7
    Ind (Sylvia Hermon) 1
    Speaker 1

    Con + DUP + Ind = 320

    Lab confidence and supply from LD + SNP + Plaid + Green = 322

    (one wonders what they would want for their support!)

    The 2,160 would be lower if we ignore Lab gains from SNP and PC but I think they are needed so that Labour total looks more credible at 277 seats.



    I suspect that Labour gains from SNP would be circa 20.
    I'm using this

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

    and assuming Labour gains Numbers 1 to 15.
  • justin124 said:

    I've done a very quick count and the answer is 2,160 voters across 15 seats.

    Labour gains 8 Tory seats.
    Labour gains 6 SNP seats.
    Labour gain 1 Plaid seat.

    Con 309 (-8)
    Lab 277 (+15)
    SNP 29 (-6)
    PC 3 (-1)
    LD 12
    Green 1
    DUP 10
    Sinn Fein 7
    Ind (Sylvia Hermon) 1
    Speaker 1

    Con + DUP + Ind = 320

    Lab confidence and supply from LD + SNP + Plaid + Green = 322

    (one wonders what they would want for their support!)

    The 2,160 would be lower if we ignore Lab gains from SNP and PC but I think they are needed so that Labour total looks more credible at 277 seats.



    I suspect that Labour gains from SNP would be circa 20.
    I'm using this

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

    and assuming Labour gains Numbers 1 to 15.
    Halving the majority of course + 1 for each seat.
    As I said a quick count.
    Night.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Telegraph:

    "Frank Field, Graham Stringer and Kate Hoey warned Mr Corbyn not to renege on the party’s election promises and the result of the Brexit referendum, amid concern that remaining in a customs union would prevent the UK from striking free trade deals with countries outside the EU, and isolate pro-Leave voters."

    Suggests Stringer may back Govt on Soubry amendment whereas he didn't when Govt defeated on meaningful vote amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill - when Field and Hoey were the only two Lab MPs to vote with Govt.

    I guess the meaningful vote amendment was process and not substance - so just a chance that Labour Brexit supporters like Stringer may be more likely to support Govt on Soubry amendment.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/24/eu-rebels-say-jeremy-corbyn-playing-fire/
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    AndyJS said:

    Anyone recognise this young man?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3MM3MlF7r0

    Good find.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,884
    Her shirt has some weird Russglish on it. She must have been on drugs when she dreamed it up.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Her shirt has some weird Russglish on it. She must have been on drugs when she dreamed it up.
    Zasport is like a Russian equivalent of Nike or Adidas, and the shirt is their design. With that in mind, the text makes sense, even if not strictly (or at all) accurate in this case.
  • AndyJS said:

    Anyone recognise this young man?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3MM3MlF7r0

    Typical BBC lefty!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    MikeL said:

    Telegraph:

    "Frank Field, Graham Stringer and Kate Hoey warned Mr Corbyn not to renege on the party’s election promises and the result of the Brexit referendum, amid concern that remaining in a customs union would prevent the UK from striking free trade deals with countries outside the EU, and isolate pro-Leave voters."

    Suggests Stringer may back Govt on Soubry amendment whereas he didn't when Govt defeated on meaningful vote amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill - when Field and Hoey were the only two Lab MPs to vote with Govt.

    I guess the meaningful vote amendment was process and not substance - so just a chance that Labour Brexit supporters like Stringer may be more likely to support Govt on Soubry amendment.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/24/eu-rebels-say-jeremy-corbyn-playing-fire/

    That of course is the big difference. The previous defeat was about process - supposedly standing up for parliamentary sovereignty (albeit from many of the same people who have consistently voted to give it away for the last 30 years!).

    This is about policy and the detail on Brexit. So you may well get far more Labour rebels and possibly fewer Tory ones. And the amendment only suggests the Government should prioritise a customs union approach - but the Governnent still has to negotiate the deal on one.
This discussion has been closed.