The government would fall over the idea of a customs union by definition at a time when the Conservative party was sufficiently split over the subject that party loyalties no longer held sufficient sway to cause MPs to toe the government line. In those circumstances, the Conservatives would need some time and space to sort themselves out, and they could not obviously do that in government. Nor would a general election assist them at a time when they could not unite.
So they would presumably go into opposition.
If May loses this vote and then resigns, wouldn’t there be another Conservative leadership contest? I don’t follow at all why Conservative MPs would abstain on Corbyn.
May could remain as PM while waiting for her successor. Her successor could either try to carry on or call an election.
To be honest I’m not even sure Corbyn would want to be PM without another election. He wouldn’t be able to do anything... I think he’d rather fight an election.
Corbyn would have to run a minority government relying on the Lib Dems and more importantly the SNP while hoping the DUP don't vote against him on everything. I don't think it would be particularly stable as the SNP and Labour historically hate each other. The SNP might consent on solely English legislation but it doesn't seem to me to be an arrangement that would deliver much.
Reading the Times article which has caused some wealthy Corbynistas to rush off to the betting shop and blow their money on Corbyn becoming PM this year, rather giving it to the poor, -it is obvious that it is government ministers and whips themselves who are trying to bluff and panic Tory MPs to vote with the government on the Customs Union by suggesting that May might make it a confidence issue which if lost would lead to a general election.
As Corbyn supporters rush off to the betting shop, it probably hasnt occurred to them that this is all a bluff, and that May would never actually make it a confidence issue. Therefore, even if the government loses on the customs union issue, there would not be a general election.
As they excitedly hand over their cash to the betting clerk, it probably has not also occurred to them that losing the customs union vote-while in the short term humiliating for May, might in the medium and long term strengthen her.
Because if parliament votes for the customs union, then the 62 Mogganystas will be defeated. No one that they could replace May with would be able to deliver on the customs union issue because the Commons had voted for it. Replacing May would be pointless since no alternative PM would be able to give them what they wanted.
When it comes to the Single Market is Corbyn really going to advocate staying in when he voted against even the creation of the SM in the first place? Is he going to upset his working class voters by advocating that the UK continues with Freedom of Movement despite the Leave vote in the referendum? Labour for unlimited immigration? Good luck with that Jeremy.
So whatever the vote, there will be no general election in 2018, not even if there is a vote of no confidence after the CU vote. The Tories will stay in office until 2022, and I suspect, that the more the polls suggest a Corbyn government, the less likely a Corbyn government is likely to happen.
I would suggest that Corbyn fanatics keep their hard earned cash in their pockets, or better still, give it to the poor.
Reading the Times article which has caused some wealthy Corbynistas to rush off to the betting shop and blow their money on Corbyn becoming PM this year, rather giving it to the poor, -it is obvious that it is government ministers and whips themselves who are trying to bluff and panic Tory MPs to vote with the government on the Customs Union by suggesting that May might make it a confidence issue which if lost would lead to a general election.
As Corbyn supporters rush off to the betting shop, it probably hasnt occurred to them that this is all a bluff, and that May would never actually make it a confidence issue. Therefore, even if the government loses on the customs union issue, there would not be a general election.
As they excitedly hand over their cash to the betting clerk, it probably has not also occurred to them that losing the customs union vote-while in the short term humiliating for May, might in the medium and long term strengthen her.
Because if parliament votes for the customs union, then the 62 Mogganystas will be defeated. No one that they could replace May with would be able to deliver on the customs union issue because the Commons had voted for it. Replacing May would be pointless since no alternative PM would be able to give them what they wanted.
When it comes to the Single Market is Corbyn really going to advocate staying in when he voted against even the creation of the SM in the first place? Is he going to upset his working class voters by advocating that the UK continues with Freedom of Movement despite the Leave vote in the referendum? Labour for unlimited immigration? Good luck with that Jeremy.
So whatever the vote, there will be no general election in 2018, not even if there is a vote of no confidence after the CU vote. The Tories will stay in office until 2022, and I suspect, that the more the polls suggest a Corbyn government, the less likely a Corbyn government is likely to happen.
I would suggest that Corbyn fanatics keep their hard earned cash in their pockets, or better still, give it to the poor.
The EU has zero tariffs and quotas on all goods from the poorest countries. This gives those countries a competitive advantage. So Uganda can sell its roasted coffee with no tariffs while Brazil has to pay 2.6%, which itself is a discount on the MFN rate of 7.5%. We're potentially going to have some issues at the WTO if we diverge from the existing schedule.
Reading the Times article which has caused some wealthy Corbynistas to rush off to the betting shop and blow their money on Corbyn becoming PM this year, rather giving it to the poor, -it is obvious that it is government ministers and whips themselves who are trying to bluff and panic Tory MPs to vote with the government on the Customs Union by suggesting that May might make it a confidence issue which if lost would lead to a general election.
As Corbyn supporters rush off to the betting shop, it probably hasnt occurred to them that this is all a bluff, and that May would never actually make it a confidence issue. Therefore, even if the government loses on the customs union issue, there would not be a general election.
As they excitedly hand over their cash to the betting clerk, it probably has not also occurred to them that losing the customs union vote-while in the short term humiliating for May, might in the medium and long term strengthen her.
Because if parliament votes for the customs union, then the 62 Mogganystas will be defeated. No one that they could replace May with would be able to deliver on the customs union issue because the Commons had voted for it. Replacing May would be pointless since no alternative PM would be able to give them what they wanted.
When it comes to the Single Market is Corbyn really going to advocate staying in when he voted against even the creation of the SM in the first place? Is he going to upset his working class voters by advocating that the UK continues with Freedom of Movement despite the Leave vote in the referendum? Labour for unlimited immigration? Good luck with that Jeremy.
So whatever the vote, there will be no general election in 2018, not even if there is a vote of no confidence after the CU vote. The Tories will stay in office until 2022, and I suspect, that the more the polls suggest a Corbyn government, the less likely a Corbyn government is likely to happen.
I would suggest that Corbyn fanatics keep their hard earned cash in their pockets, or better still, give it to the poor.
I believe that the FTPA has effectively removed the option previously available to a Government to treat a particular Commons Vote as a Vote of Confidence. For the Government to fall a motion would have to be tabled that 'This House has no confidence in HM Government'. Much less likely that May would lose that.
Livingstone is a Jew baiter. That is, he does not accord to Jews the same courtesies he would automatically accord to other minorities. He would, for example, never publicly accuse black Africans of being pro-slavery or of collaborating with slavers - even though it is widely known that both things happened. He would not do this because it would be hugely insensitive, equate individual actions with group actions, and imply that black Africans were in some way responsible for slavery. But for some reason, Livingstone finds it acceptable to constantly talk about Jews colluding with Hitler. Jew baiting is anti-Semitism.
Livingstone was doing this - and being heavily criticised for it - long before Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader.
Yes, I think that's a fair summary which helps clear it up in my own mind, and a subset of his more general tendency of enjoying winding people up (which I don't especially mind in general, but should not be applied to historical target groups for persecution). I'd prefer it if he wasn't readmitted, although it's awkward if he is on solid legal grounds to challenge exclusion as he claims (I rather doubt it - most clubs can decide who they want to be members).
We had a similar issue in the local CLP, and voted unanimously to invite the Jewish Labour Movement to send a speaker to discuss where the borderline should be between being critical of Israel or Zionism (which we all agree should be a legit subject for discussion) and making Jewish members feel got at (which clearly is not).
Livingstone seems incapable of ever apologising. I'm sure every one of us has made a comment which is crass and insensitive, but a swift apology can usually mend fences.
I see the latest PPP generic House ballot poll has the Democratic lead down a bit to 8%, 49% to 41%.
On hypothetical 2020 contests Biden leads Trump 51% to 42%, Sanders leads Trump by 48% to 44%, Joe Kennedy leads Trump 46% to 43% but Trump ties Warren on 44% each and Harris on 43% each and leads Gilibrand 43% to 42%
I'm thinking Biden might actually run. He's the best chance the Dems have, despite his age. (born 1942, he'd be 78 at inauguration).
Agreed, Biden is the only Democrat who outperforms the generic Democrat total on that poll and would be ideal to win back the rustbelt states the Democrats have to win back from Trump to take the Electoral College. Don't forget Trump will be 75 in 2020 too so on that basis his age would be less of an issue.
His challenge will be beating the the likes of Warren and Sanders etc in the primaries but on that poll if it is Trump v Warren then Trump wins as Trump ties her on this poll in the popular vote and in 2016 he lost the popular vote by 2% to Hillary but still won the Electoral College.
I see the latest PPP generic House ballot poll has the Democratic lead down a bit to 8%, 49% to 41%.
On hypothetical 2020 contests Biden leads Trump 51% to 42%, Sanders leads Trump by 48% to 44%, Joe Kennedy leads Trump 46% to 43% but Trump ties Warren on 44% each and Harris on 43% each and leads Gilibrand 43% to 42%
I'm thinking Biden might actually run. He's the best chance the Dems have, despite his age. (born 1942, he'd be 78 at inauguration).
Agreed, Biden is the only Democrat who outperforms the generic Democrat total on that poll and would be ideal to win back the rustbelt states the Democrats have to win back from Trump to take the Electoral College. Don't forget Trump will be 75 in 2020 too so on that basis his age would be less of an issue.
His challenge will be beating the the likes of Warren and Sanders etc in the primaries but on that poll if it is Trump v Warren then Trump wins as Trump ties her on this poll in the popular vote and in 2016 he lost the popular vote by 2% to Hillary but still won the Electoral College.
Been saying Biden will run for months now. Bernie is losing some of his principled shine...
Someone was explaining "Ambitious Managed Divergence", which apparently was the outcome of the Chequers awayday. Now this makes no sense as a policy, even before the EU gets its teeth into it. But it could make sense as a paper covering the cracks. Basically the deal is the realists keep alignment for as long as necessary, while the sovereigntists can diverge if they want. The circle gets squared if no divergence ever happens.
The problem is the lack of commitment. Any treaty is about "this is what will happen, what we get and what we need to do". In fact the WTO term isn't actually "rules". It's "commitments". It runs counter to the principles of international trade, which is why it will never go anywhere.
If Theresa May loses this vote, she need not resign. She could hold a separate vote of confidence which I expect she would win. (The amendment would, however, remain on the statute books.) That looks quite likely, don't you think?
If the Conservatives get to the point where some of their own MPs can't support their own government on a vote of confidence on EU policy, the stakes are much higher. A mere leadership contest isn't going to sort that out. Scores will need to be settled, punishment beatings handed out. As I said, this is extreme.
It is possible that Theresa May would see losing this vote as a trigger for her resignation. I don't really see why. Perhaps more likely, other MPs lose patience with her and get out the Quink for a letter to Mr Brady. And then I agree with you as to how this would play out.
I find it hard to judge how likely any of this is. Your first paragraph definitely plausible to me. And I agree I think even if she loses the vote she would probably try to cling on.
On para 2 - I think the ERG are there already. The only way to sort it out is deselect them (impossible), do what they want (she’s trying), or win a big enough majority that they don’t matter (she tried that) There is no punishment that will change their mind - party discipline has broken down.
In any case - I don’t see how Corbyn becomes the next PM without a general election where he is facing Theresa May.
If Theresa May loses this vote, she need not resign. She could hold a separate vote of confidence which I expect she would win. (The amendment would, however, remain on the statute books.) That looks quite likely, don't you think?
If the Conservatives get to the point where some of their own MPs can't support their own government on a vote of confidence on EU policy, the stakes are much higher. A mere leadership contest isn't going to sort that out. Scores will need to be settled, punishment beatings handed out. As I said, this is extreme.
It is possible that Theresa May would see losing this vote as a trigger for her resignation. I don't really see why. Perhaps more likely, other MPs lose patience with her and get out the Quink for a letter to Mr Brady. And then I agree with you as to how this would play out.
I find it hard to judge how likely any of this is. Your first paragraph definitely plausible to me. And I agree I think even if she loses the vote she would probably try to cling on.
On para 2 - I think the ERG are there already. The only way to sort it out is deselect them (impossible), do what they want (she’s trying), or win a big enough majority that they don’t matter (she tried that) There is no punishment that will change their mind - party discipline has broken down.
In any case - I don’t see how Corbyn becomes the next PM without a general election where he is facing Theresa May.
The disconnect is between the members and the MPs. The members will back whoever the ERG nominates to replace Mrs May. Probably Michael Gove.
Labour have the same problem in reverse, there the membership back the leadership but the MPs don’t.
If Theresa May loses this vote, she need not resign. She could hold a separate vote of confidence which I expect she would win. (The amendment would, however, remain on the statute books.) That looks quite likely, don't you think?
If the Conservatives get to the point where some of their own MPs can't support their own government on a vote of confidence on EU policy, the stakes are much higher. A mere leadership contest isn't going to sort that out. Scores will need to be settled, punishment beatings handed out. As I said, this is extreme.
It is possible that Theresa May would see losing this vote as a trigger for her resignation. I don't really see why. Perhaps more likely, other MPs lose patience with her and get out the Quink for a letter to Mr Brady. And then I agree with you as to how this would play out.
I find it hard to judge how likely any of this is. Your first paragraph definitely plausible to me. And I agree I think even if she loses the vote she would probably try to cling on.
On para 2 - I think the ERG are there already. The only way to sort it out is deselect them (impossible), do what they want (she’s trying), or win a big enough majority that they don’t matter (she tried that) There is no punishment that will change their mind - party discipline has broken down.
In any case - I don’t see how Corbyn becomes the next PM without a general election where he is facing Theresa May.
I don't think the ERG will vote down Brexit business because it's the wrong sort of Brexit.
If Theresa May loses this vote, she need not resign. She could hold a separate vote of confidence which I expect she would win. (The amendment would, however, remain on the statute books.) That looks quite likely, don't you think?
If the Conservatives get to the point where some of their own MPs can't support their own government on a vote of confidence on EU policy, the stakes are much higher. A mere leadership contest isn't going to sort that out. Scores will need to be settled, punishment beatings handed out. As I said, this is extreme.
It is possible that Theresa May would see losing this vote as a trigger for her resignation. I don't really see why. Perhaps more likely, other MPs lose patience with her and get out the Quink for a letter to Mr Brady. And then I agree with you as to how this would play out.
I find it hard to judge how likely any of this is. Your first paragraph definitely plausible to me. And I agree I think even if she loses the vote she would probably try to cling on.
On para 2 - I think the ERG are there already. The only way to sort it out is deselect them (impossible), do what they want (she’s trying), or win a big enough majority that they don’t matter (she tried that) There is no punishment that will change their mind - party discipline has broken down.
In any case - I don’t see how Corbyn becomes the next PM without a general election where he is facing Theresa May.
More likely is that the Govt. survives a confidence motion, but only on the basis that May has agreed to stand down and a new leader (and Prime Minister) be elected. Men (and women) in grey suits doing their patriotic duty to save the country from Corbyn.
Not that Corbyn could govern in any meaningful sense without winning another election. The idea of Labour governing when the Conservatives and the DUP could vote down anything on a whim is not government. It would be a new clusterf*ck every day. Especially watching Corbyn form a Cabinet.....The Labour moderate MPs would be watching with wry amusement from the sidelines. "So this is Socialism in action, eh comrade? And how's Brexit working out for you?"
Wilson may have had a minority Government but with the Liberals supporting him he had an 18 seat majority. Corbyn would not have a majority even if every single possible party bar the Tories and DUP supported him.
I do not remember the Liberals supporting the Wilson Government, Mr Tyndall. I think you are re-writing history a bit with that one.
By support I mean did not vote against - it was effectively the same thing given the Liberals held the balance of power.
And again it does not apply in this case since even with every party bar the Tories and DUP supporting him, Corbyn still doesn't get a majority.
It is fantasy to think that in that situation there would not be a general election.
If Theresa May loses this vote, she need not resign. She could hold a separate vote of confidence which I expect she would win. (The amendment would, however, remain on the statute books.) That looks quite likely, don't you think?
If the Conservatives get to the point where some of their own MPs can't support their own government on a vote of confidence on EU policy, the stakes are much higher. A mere leadership contest isn't going to sort that out. Scores will need to be settled, punishment beatings handed out. As I said, this is extreme.
It is possible that Theresa May would see losing this vote as a trigger for her resignation. I don't really see why. Perhaps more likely, other MPs lose patience with her and get out the Quink for a letter to Mr Brady. And then I agree with you as to how this would play out.
I find it hard to judge how likely any of this is. Your first paragraph definitely plausible to me. And I agree I think even if she loses the vote she would probably try to cling on.
On para 2 - I think the ERG are there already. The only way to sort it out is deselect them (impossible), do what they want (she’s trying), or win a big enough majority that they don’t matter (she tried that) There is no punishment that will change their mind - party discipline has broken down.
In any case - I don’t see how Corbyn becomes the next PM without a general election where he is facing Theresa May.
It’s very unlikely but by-elections/defections could conceivably hand Corbyn the keys to #10 without a GE.
I don’t see it happening, but it’s not impossible. If lab had a centrist leader, all the talk would be about defections right now.
Wilson may have had a minority Government but with the Liberals supporting him he had an 18 seat majority. Corbyn would not have a majority even if every single possible party bar the Tories and DUP supported him.
I do not remember the Liberals supporting the Wilson Government, Mr Tyndall. I think you are re-writing history a bit with that one.
The Lib-Lab pact was with the Govt. elected in October 1974 under Harold Wilson. The PM at the time of the pact was James Callaghan, but with no intervening general election.
Oh yes, Mr Mark, I remember that. The Labour Government at that time was quite a good one, wasn`t it? The Liberals prevented it from doing anything really unacceptable, and the country was just able to get on with its life without too much disturbance from the Government.
Unfortunately, some left-wing people thought that a Labour government ought to be doing more Socialist-type things, and so we had the Winter of Discontent. And that led on to the dreadful Thatcher years. Stupid short-sighted socialists!
If Theresa May loses this vote, she need not resign. She could hold a separate vote of confidence which I expect she would win. (The amendment would, however, remain on the statute books.) That looks quite likely, don't you think?
If the Conservatives get to the point where some of their own MPs can't support their own government on a vote of confidence on EU policy, the stakes are much higher. A mere leadership contest isn't going to sort that out. Scores will need to be settled, punishment beatings handed out. As I said, this is extreme.
It is possible that Theresa May would see losing this vote as a trigger for her resignation. I don't really see why. Perhaps more likely, other MPs lose patience with her and get out the Quink for a letter to Mr Brady. And then I agree with you as to how this would play out.
I find it hard to judge how likely any of this is. Your first paragraph definitely plausible to me. And I agree I think even if she loses the vote she would probably try to cling on.
On para 2 - I think the ERG are there already. The only way to sort it out is deselect them (impossible), do what they want (she’s trying), or win a big enough majority that they don’t matter (she tried that) There is no punishment that will change their mind - party discipline has broken down.
In any case - I don’t see how Corbyn becomes the next PM without a general election where he is facing Theresa May.
I don't think the ERG will vote down Brexit business because it's the wrong sort of Brexit.
I would agree with you - but the ERG know that if nothing happens - we get no deal Brexit which they quite like the look of.
Wilson may have had a minority Government but with the Liberals supporting him he had an 18 seat majority. Corbyn would not have a majority even if every single possible party bar the Tories and DUP supported him.
I do not remember the Liberals supporting the Wilson Government, Mr Tyndall. I think you are re-writing history a bit with that one.
The Lib-Lab pact was with the Govt. elected in October 1974 under Harold Wilson. The PM at the time of the pact was James Callaghan, but with no intervening general election.
Oh yes, Mr Mark, I remember that. The Labour Government at that time was quite a good one, wasn`t it? The Liberals prevented it from doing anything really unacceptable, and the country was just able to get on with its life without too much disturbance from the Government.
Unfortunately, some left-wing people thought that a Labour government ought to be doing more Socialist-type things, and so we had the Winter of Discontent. And that led on to the dreadful Thatcher years. Stupid short-sighted socialists!
You seem to have forgotten that we were run by the IMF during that golden epoch....
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
This is yet again nonsense from TSE. The government falls on a vote of confidence not the loss of a vote on a customs union. He is also forgetting the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
And I’m at a complete loss as to how he thinks Corbyn becomes PM without a GE. THe parliamentary maths simply doesn’t add up.
I explain in the thread header how it happens.
Enough Tories abstain in a vote of confidence making Corbyn PM.
There’s a 14 day window following the Tories losing their vote of confidence for it to happen.
Corbyn doesn’t become after a vote of confidence.
If the DUP comes out and says they will prioritise negotiating a new deal with whoever the Tories chose as leader then he’s done
Wilson may have had a minority Government but with the Liberals supporting him he had an 18 seat majority. Corbyn would not have a majority even if every single possible party bar the Tories and DUP supported him.
I do not remember the Liberals supporting the Wilson Government, Mr Tyndall. I think you are re-writing history a bit with that one.
The Lib-Lab pact was with the Govt. elected in October 1974 under Harold Wilson. The PM at the time of the pact was James Callaghan, but with no intervening general election.
Oh yes, Mr Mark, I remember that. The Labour Government at that time was quite a good one, wasn`t it? The Liberals prevented it from doing anything really unacceptable, and the country was just able to get on with its life without too much disturbance from the Government.
Unfortunately, some left-wing people thought that a Labour government ought to be doing more Socialist-type things, and so we had the Winter of Discontent. And that led on to the dreadful Thatcher years. Stupid short-sighted socialists!
I mostly liked the Thatcher years. But, I wonder what the public sector unions were thinking of, when they set out to wreck the Labour government.
Wilson may have had a minority Government but with the Liberals supporting him he had an 18 seat majority. Corbyn would not have a majority even if every single possible party bar the Tories and DUP supported him.
I do not remember the Liberals supporting the Wilson Government, Mr Tyndall. I think you are re-writing history a bit with that one.
The Lib-Lab pact was with the Govt. elected in October 1974 under Harold Wilson. The PM at the time of the pact was James Callaghan, but with no intervening general election.
Oh yes, Mr Mark, I remember that. The Labour Government at that time was quite a good one, wasn`t it? The Liberals prevented it from doing anything really unacceptable, and the country was just able to get on with its life without too much disturbance from the Government.
Unfortunately, some left-wing people thought that a Labour government ought to be doing more Socialist-type things, and so we had the Winter of Discontent. And that led on to the dreadful Thatcher years. Stupid short-sighted socialists!
You seem to have forgotten that we were run by the IMF during that golden epoch....
... and we escaped to the EU (well... EEC) and ever since the UK has become a better, cleaner and more prosperous country than previously.
This is yet again nonsense from TSE. The government falls on a vote of confidence not the loss of a vote on a customs union. He is also forgetting the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
And I’m at a complete loss as to how he thinks Corbyn becomes PM without a GE. THe parliamentary maths simply doesn’t add up.
I explain in the thread header how it happens.
Enough Tories abstain in a vote of confidence making Corbyn PM.
There’s a 14 day window following the Tories losing their vote of confidence for it to happen.
Corbyn doesn’t become after a vote of confidence.
If the DUP comes out and says they will prioritise negotiating a new deal with whoever the Tories chose as leader then he’s done
He becomes PM in the second vote of confidence held within the 14 days of the first confidence vote loss.
After studying this thread, I think the government will win this vote.
I think the government will lose the vote on the amendment but will win resultant vote of confidence.
And go straight into a leadership contest
If you’re right that means a Tory leadership contest beginning Mid/Late May.
Guess when Mike’s holiday begins ?
Surely if there’s a leadership contest it means we are already Late May as the contest will be Post May
May may find that May is May's Waterloo?
May Day! May Day!
You actually say it three times Sunil - to be compliant with international distress regulations (I point this out because I know you are a stickler for detail)
PS - "May Day" is for situations where loss of life or major injury is imminent, else it should be a Pan-Pan call (also done 3 times)
Wilson may have had a minority Government but with the Liberals supporting him he had an 18 seat majority. Corbyn would not have a majority even if every single possible party bar the Tories and DUP supported him.
I do not remember the Liberals supporting the Wilson Government, Mr Tyndall. I think you are re-writing history a bit with that one.
The Lib-Lab pact was with the Govt. elected in October 1974 under Harold Wilson. The PM at the time of the pact was James Callaghan, but with no intervening general election.
Oh yes, Mr Mark, I remember that. The Labour Government at that time was quite a good one, wasn`t it? The Liberals prevented it from doing anything really unacceptable, and the country was just able to get on with its life without too much disturbance from the Government.
Unfortunately, some left-wing people thought that a Labour government ought to be doing more Socialist-type things, and so we had the Winter of Discontent. And that led on to the dreadful Thatcher years. Stupid short-sighted socialists!
You seem to have forgotten that we were run by the IMF during that golden epoch....
... and we escaped to the EU (well... EEC) and ever since the UK has become a better, cleaner and more prosperous country than previously.
We were already in the EEC under the previous Tory Govt. Nothing to do with Wilson/Callaghan's Government, other than keeping enough of their own Bennite MPs in line to ensure the Referendum to stay in the EU passed.
I believe Anna Soubry was originally a member of the SDP - so her Tory credentials are not particularly strong!
She denies it. Besides, it was decades ago - Nick Palmer was once a committed Communist (or so I understand), became a loyalist centrist Labour under Blair, and now is a firm hard-left Corbynista.
People undergo political journeys, and parties evolve. The modern Conservative Party is worlds apart from the one that ran the country in the early 1980s.
If only because that government was at least competent!
Sure, though I think most of us like to think there's a common thread which adjusts over time without actually breaking. I was always left-wing but felt that there were lots of centrist things that needed doing urgently in 1997 (minimum wage, better NHS funding etc.) so was happy to prioriise a decade of them. By 2010 I was starting to feel we'd run out of them. I'm not sure I'd quite call myself hard left now, but labels are always a bit imprecise.
The problem of the Conservative Party seems to me that it's evolving but hasn't quite decided what it's evolving to. It's significantly more socially liberal than it used to be, and significantly more Eurosceptic. Everything else seems a bit mysterious and everyone makes up their own rules - Rees-Mogg, Halton, May and Osborne are arguably more different from each other than, say, Corbyn, Creasey and Hilary Benn.
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
After studying this thread, I think the government will win this vote.
I think the government will lose the vote on the amendment but will win resultant vote of confidence.
And go straight into a leadership contest
If you’re right that means a Tory leadership contest beginning Mid/Late May.
Guess when Mike’s holiday begins ?
Surely if there’s a leadership contest it means we are already Late May as the contest will be Post May
May may find that May is May's Waterloo?
May Day! May Day!
You actually say it three times Sunil - to be compliant with international distress regulations (I point this out because I know you are a stickler for detail)
PS - "May Day" is for situations where loss of life or major injury is imminent, else it should be a Pan-Pan call (also done 3 times)
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
After studying this thread, I think the government will win this vote.
I think the government will lose the vote on the amendment but will win resultant vote of confidence.
And go straight into a leadership contest
If you’re right that means a Tory leadership contest beginning Mid/Late May.
Guess when Mike’s holiday begins ?
Surely if there’s a leadership contest it means we are already Late May as the contest will be Post May
I'm just glad Mrs May's parents didn't name her June.
Given that May is her married name, that would have been entirely plausible.
Actually, if her parents had named her "May" then when married she could have been May May which would have caused no end of confusion (especially since May May was Dirk Struan's chinese mistress)
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
After studying this thread, I think the government will win this vote.
I think the government will lose the vote on the amendment but will win resultant vote of confidence.
And go straight into a leadership contest
If you’re right that means a Tory leadership contest beginning Mid/Late May.
Guess when Mike’s holiday begins ?
Surely if there’s a leadership contest it means we are already Late May as the contest will be Post May
I'm just glad Mrs May's parents didn't name her June.
Given that May is her married name, that would have been entirely plausible.
Actually, if her parents had named her "May" then when married she could have been May May which would have caused no end of confusion (especially since May May was Dirk Struan's chinese mistress)
I worked with a real life May May, who unsurprisingly used her maiden name.
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
How long would that deal with China take to negotiate, and what is in it for China?
What happens if the EU negotiates a deal first, and their vehicles are 30% cheaper? or as isimore likely, set up local manufacturers under licence, as they do in Americas and Africa?
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
If plays a significant part in that line of argument.
This is yet again nonsense from TSE. The government falls on a vote of confidence not the loss of a vote on a customs union. He is also forgetting the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
And I’m at a complete loss as to how he thinks Corbyn becomes PM without a GE. THe parliamentary maths simply doesn’t add up.
I explain in the thread header how it happens.
Enough Tories abstain in a vote of confidence making Corbyn PM.
There’s a 14 day window following the Tories losing their vote of confidence for it to happen.
Corbyn doesn’t become after a vote of confidence.
If the DUP comes out and says they will prioritise negotiating a new deal with whoever the Tories chose as leader then he’s done
He becomes PM in the second vote of confidence held within the 14 days of the first confidence vote loss.
An interesting constitutional point surely arises here. For the second vote of confidence to take place would rather imply that another Government had been formed! It is not obvious that there could be a confidence vote in an administration which did not yet exist. On that basis , Corbyn - or whoever- would aleady have become PM and formed a government - and would now be seeking the required Affirmatory vote from the Commons.
After studying this thread, I think the government will win this vote.
I think the government will lose the vote on the amendment but will win resultant vote of confidence.
And go straight into a leadership contest
If you’re right that means a Tory leadership contest beginning Mid/Late May.
Guess when Mike’s holiday begins ?
Surely if there’s a leadership contest it means we are already Late May as the contest will be Post May
I'm just glad Mrs May's parents didn't name her June.
Given that May is her married name, that would have been entirely plausible.
Actually, if her parents had named her "May" then when married she could have been May May which would have caused no end of confusion (especially since May May was Dirk Struan's chinese mistress)
I worked with a real life May May, who unsurprisingly used her maiden name.
Of course, Struan's was based on Jardine Matheson which is run by Scots and trades in Asia. Dirk Struan was all for expanding British influence in China. All we need is May May and fiction apes real life.
This is yet again nonsense from TSE. The government falls on a vote of confidence not the loss of a vote on a customs union. He is also forgetting the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
And I’m at a complete loss as to how he thinks Corbyn becomes PM without a GE. THe parliamentary maths simply doesn’t add up.
I explain in the thread header how it happens.
Enough Tories abstain in a vote of confidence making Corbyn PM.
There’s a 14 day window following the Tories losing their vote of confidence for it to happen.
Corbyn doesn’t become after a vote of confidence.
If the DUP comes out and says they will prioritise negotiating a new deal with whoever the Tories chose as leader then he’s done
He becomes PM in the second vote of confidence held within the 14 days of the first confidence vote loss.
An interesting constitutional point surely arises here. For the second vote of confidence to take place would rather imply that another Government had been formed! It is not obvious that there could be a confidence vote in an administration which did not yet exist. On that basis , Corbyn - or whoever- would aleady have become PM and formed a government - and would now be seeking the required Affirmatory vote from the Commons.
Had the 2015 general election result had been as messy as many predicted there were plans for rival Queen's Speeches to be delivered and voted upon/down.
The Palace weren't keen on Her Majesty to do that, but both parties were going to insist on it.
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
"I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies."
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
It wouldn't work that way. China would be free to sell its cars (and steel) duty free to the UK, while we wouldn't be able to sell cars to them on a reciprocal basis, not least because we wouldn't meet their content thresholds. China isn't interested in free trade with us. It wants to use its muscle and our relatively weak position to get an advantage out of us. Actually an FTA with China may make sense, given we're brexiting any way. But we need to understand what we are trying to achieve.
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
How long would that deal with China take to negotiate, and what is in it for China?
What happens if the EU negotiates a deal first, and their vehicles are 30% cheaper? or as isimore likely, set up local manufacturers under licence, as they do in Americas and Africa?
What’s in it for China is easier access to our market, unencumbered by often punitive EU external tariffs that make (for example) electronics and clothing from China much more expensive, in order to protect German, French and Italian manufacturers.
After studying this thread, I think the government will win this vote.
I think the government will lose the vote on the amendment but will win resultant vote of confidence.
And go straight into a leadership contest
If you’re right that means a Tory leadership contest beginning Mid/Late May.
Guess when Mike’s holiday begins ?
Surely if there’s a leadership contest it means we are already Late May as the contest will be Post May
I'm just glad Mrs May's parents didn't name her June.
Given that May is her married name, that would have been entirely plausible.
Actually, if her parents had named her "May" then when married she could have been May May which would have caused no end of confusion (especially since May May was Dirk Struan's chinese mistress)
I worked with a real life May May, who unsurprisingly used her maiden name.
Of course, Struan's was based on Jardine Matheson which is run by Scots and trades in Asia. Dirk Struan was all for expanding British influence in China. All we need is May May and fiction apes real life.
This is yet again nonsense from TSE. The government falls on a vote of confidence not the loss of a vote on a customs union. He is also forgetting the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
And I’m at a complete loss as to how he thinks Corbyn becomes PM without a GE. THe parliamentary maths simply doesn’t add up.
I explain in the thread header how it happens.
Enough Tories abstain in a vote of confidence making Corbyn PM.
There’s a 14 day window following the Tories losing their vote of confidence for it to happen.
Corbyn doesn’t become after a vote of confidence.
If the DUP comes out and says they will prioritise negotiating a new deal with whoever the Tories chose as leader then he’s done
He becomes PM in the second vote of confidence held within the 14 days of the first confidence vote loss.
Why would Conservatives abstain? Or vote for Corbyn?
This is yet again nonsense from TSE. The government falls on a vote of confidence not the loss of a vote on a customs union. He is also forgetting the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
And I’m at a complete loss as to how he thinks Corbyn becomes PM without a GE. THe parliamentary maths simply doesn’t add up.
I explain in the thread header how it happens.
Enough Tories abstain in a vote of confidence making Corbyn PM.
There’s a 14 day window following the Tories losing their vote of confidence for it to happen.
Corbyn doesn’t become after a vote of confidence.
If the DUP comes out and says they will prioritise negotiating a new deal with whoever the Tories chose as leader then he’s done
He becomes PM in the second vote of confidence held within the 14 days of the first confidence vote loss.
Why would Conservatives abstain? Or vote for Corbyn?
They wouldn't do the latter, but they might abstain because Brexit is tearing the Tory party apart.
It would likely the Tories would be having a leadership contest during those 14 days.
It could take up to 3 months to replace Mrs May.
So the Tory party night not be in a state where they can govern.
The Tories fractured over tariffs in the past, it could happen again.
This is yet again nonsense from TSE. The government falls on a vote of confidence not the loss of a vote on a customs union. He is also forgetting the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
And I’m at a complete loss as to how he thinks Corbyn becomes PM without a GE. THe parliamentary maths simply doesn’t add up.
I explain in the thread header how it happens.
Enough Tories abstain in a vote of confidence making Corbyn PM.
There’s a 14 day window following the Tories losing their vote of confidence for it to happen.
Corbyn doesn’t become after a vote of confidence.
If the DUP comes out and says they will prioritise negotiating a new deal with whoever the Tories chose as leader then he’s done
He becomes PM in the second vote of confidence held within the 14 days of the first confidence vote loss.
An interesting constitutional point surely arises here. For the second vote of confidence to take place would rather imply that another Government had been formed! It is not obvious that there could be a confidence vote in an administration which did not yet exist. On that basis , Corbyn - or whoever- would aleady have become PM and formed a government - and would now be seeking the required Affirmatory vote from the Commons.
Had the 2015 general election result had been as messy as many predicted there were plans for rival Queen's Speeches to be delivered and voted upon/down.
The Palace weren't keen on Her Majesty to do that, but both parties were going to insist on it.
But any Affirmatory Vote of Confidence surely has to relate to an Administration which has already been formed? Whether it could survive this first hurdle would be a separate matter!
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
How long would that deal with China take to negotiate, and what is in it for China?
What happens if the EU negotiates a deal first, and their vehicles are 30% cheaper? or as isimore likely, set up local manufacturers under licence, as they do in Americas and Africa?
What’s in it for China is easier access to our market, unencumbered by often punitive EU external tariffs that make (for example) electronics and clothing from China much more expensive, in order to protect German, French and Italian manufacturers.
As an aside, I’d be surprised if many of our clothes were currently made in Germany, France or Italy compared to China, Bangladesh, Thailand etc.
A trade deal with China will be on their terms given how big their economy is compared to ours. I think Switzerland has a deal whereby they open up immediately and china promises to do so a long way down the track.
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
How long would that deal with China take to negotiate, and what is in it for China?
What happens if the EU negotiates a deal first, and their vehicles are 30% cheaper? or as isimore likely, set up local manufacturers under licence, as they do in Americas and Africa?
What’s in it for China is easier access to our market, unencumbered by often punitive EU external tariffs that make (for example) electronics and clothing from China much more expensive, in order to protect German, French and Italian manufacturers.
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
Both McLaren (wheels, electronics) and JLR (transmission, brakes, electronics) have significant EU content. Aston Martin are the ones who will get truly fucked as they are now just a lifestyle brand that relies on Mercedes technology.
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
How long would that deal with China take to negotiate, and what is in it for China?
What happens if the EU negotiates a deal first, and their vehicles are 30% cheaper? or as isimore likely, set up local manufacturers under licence, as they do in Americas and Africa?
The argument for the UK signing a trade deal with China is that it is too big to ignore and so we might as well sign one while we are still interesting to the Chinese. As an example China would be interested in a sophisticated car market when they don't really export cars at the moment. Our automotive industry will be wiped out by a hard Brexit, so we don't care where we import our cars from.
Wilson may have had a minority Government but with the Liberals supporting him he had an 18 seat majority. Corbyn would not have a majority even if every single possible party bar the Tories and DUP supported him.
I do not remember the Liberals supporting the Wilson Government, Mr Tyndall. I think you are re-writing history a bit with that one.
The Lib-Lab pact was with the Govt. elected in October 1974 under Harold Wilson. The PM at the time of the pact was James Callaghan, but with no intervening general election.
Oh yes, Mr Mark, I remember that. The Labour Government at that time was quite a good one, wasn`t it? The Liberals prevented it from doing anything really unacceptable, and the country was just able to get on with its life without too much disturbance from the Government.
Unfortunately, some left-wing people thought that a Labour government ought to be doing more Socialist-type things, and so we had the Winter of Discontent. And that led on to the dreadful Thatcher years. Stupid short-sighted socialists!
You seem to have forgotten that we were run by the IMF during that golden epoch....
... and we escaped to the EU (well... EEC) and ever since the UK has become a better, cleaner and more prosperous country than previously.
Actually no. We remained a basket case even inside the EEC until we had a PM willing and able to put things right. We became a cleaner, better and more prosperous country because of Mrs Thatcher not because of the EEC.
After studying this thread, I think the government will win this vote.
I think the government will lose the vote on the amendment but will win resultant vote of confidence.
And go straight into a leadership contest
If you’re right that means a Tory leadership contest beginning Mid/Late May.
Guess when Mike’s holiday begins ?
Surely if there’s a leadership contest it means we are already Late May as the contest will be Post May
I'm just glad Mrs May's parents didn't name her June.
Given that May is her married name, that would have been entirely plausible.
Actually, if her parents had named her "May" then when married she could have been May May which would have caused no end of confusion (especially since May May was Dirk Struan's chinese mistress)
I worked with a real life May May, who unsurprisingly used her maiden name.
Of course, Struan's was based on Jardine Matheson which is run by Scots and trades in Asia. Dirk Struan was all for expanding British influence in China. All we need is May May and fiction apes real life.
It is a funny old world
Yep. Free Trade in opium, at the point of a gun.
I think China remembers that better than we do.
Yes, and I think we would do well to refresh our memories.
This is yet again nonsense from TSE. The government falls on a vote of confidence not the loss of a vote on a customs union. He is also forgetting the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
And I’m at a complete loss as to how he thinks Corbyn becomes PM without a GE. THe parliamentary maths simply doesn’t add up.
I explain in the thread header how it happens.
Enough Tories abstain in a vote of confidence making Corbyn PM.
There’s a 14 day window following the Tories losing their vote of confidence for it to happen.
Corbyn doesn’t become after a vote of confidence.
If the DUP comes out and says they will prioritise negotiating a new deal with whoever the Tories chose as leader then he’s done
He becomes PM in the second vote of confidence held within the 14 days of the first confidence vote loss.
Why would Conservatives abstain? Or vote for Corbyn?
They wouldn't do the latter, but they might abstain because Brexit is tearing the Tory party apart.
It would likely the Tories would be having a leadership contest during those 14 days.
It could take up to 3 months to replace Mrs May.
So the Tory party night not be in a state where they can govern.
The Tories fractured over tariffs in the past, it could happen again.
I’m not seeing it. If they are having a leadership contest, surely everyone in the Tory party will be okay with May remaining PM until that contest is complete. Especially if the alternative is Corbyn as PM.
And frankly Corbyn has no interest in being PM just for the title. He would challenge the Tories to an election rather than attempt an impossible minority government.
Wilson may have had a minority Government but with the Liberals supporting him he had an 18 seat majority. Corbyn would not have a majority even if every single possible party bar the Tories and DUP supported him.
I do not remember the Liberals supporting the Wilson Government, Mr Tyndall. I think you are re-writing history a bit with that one.
The Lib-Lab pact was with the Govt. elected in October 1974 under Harold Wilson. The PM at the time of the pact was James Callaghan, but with no intervening general election.
Oh yes, Mr Mark, I remember that. The Labour Government at that time was quite a good one, wasn`t it? The Liberals prevented it from doing anything really unacceptable, and the country was just able to get on with its life without too much disturbance from the Government.
Unfortunately, some left-wing people thought that a Labour government ought to be doing more Socialist-type things, and so we had the Winter of Discontent. And that led on to the dreadful Thatcher years. Stupid short-sighted socialists!
You seem to have forgotten that we were run by the IMF during that golden epoch....
... and we escaped to the EU (well... EEC) and ever since the UK has become a better, cleaner and more prosperous country than previously.
Actually no. We remained a basket case even inside the EEC until we had a PM willing and able to put things right. We became a cleaner, better and more prosperous country because of Mrs Thatcher not because of the EEC.
Mrs Thatcher played a leading role in our political and economic integration within the EEC throughout her career as a frontline politician.
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
How long would that deal with China take to negotiate, and what is in it for China?
What happens if the EU negotiates a deal first, and their vehicles are 30% cheaper? or as isimore likely, set up local manufacturers under licence, as they do in Americas and Africa?
What’s in it for China is easier access to our market, unencumbered by often punitive EU external tariffs that make (for example) electronics and clothing from China much more expensive, in order to protect German, French and Italian manufacturers.
As an aside, I’d be surprised if many of our clothes were currently made in Germany, France or Italy compared to China, Bangladesh, Thailand etc.
A trade deal with China will be on their terms given how big their economy is compared to ours. I think Switzerland has a deal whereby they open up immediately and china promises to do so a long way down the track.
Sounds like @Sandpit wants to see the end of what remains of Leicesters garment and footwear industry.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
How long would that deal with China take to negotiate, and what is in it for China?
What happens if the EU negotiates a deal first, and their vehicles are 30% cheaper? or as isimore likely, set up local manufacturers under licence, as they do in Americas and Africa?
What’s in it for China is easier access to our market, unencumbered by often punitive EU external tariffs that make (for example) electronics and clothing from China much more expensive, in order to protect German, French and Italian manufacturers.
As an aside, I’d be surprised if many of our clothes were currently made in Germany, France or Italy compared to China, Bangladesh, Thailand etc.
A trade deal with China will be on their terms given how big their economy is compared to ours. I think Switzerland has a deal whereby they open up immediately and china promises to do so a long way down the track.
Correct. But if the EU were negotiating on our behalf they would be looking to protect small clothing industries in Italy and France over cheap clothing imports from China. The EU negotiates on behalf of the EU as a whole, not the UK.
Working out how to vote on this would have torn me up.
I can’t risk making Corbyn PM but I don’t want to ruin the economy.
Although Liam Fox’s intervention this morning has cleared things up some what.
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
How long would that deal with China take to negotiate, and what is in it for China?
What happens if the EU negotiates a deal first, and their vehicles are 30% cheaper? or as isimore likely, set up local manufacturers under licence, as they do in Americas and Africa?
What’s in it for China is easier access to our market, unencumbered by often punitive EU external tariffs that make (for example) electronics and clothing from China much more expensive, in order to protect German, French and Italian manufacturers.
As an aside, I’d be surprised if many of our clothes were currently made in Germany, France or Italy compared to China, Bangladesh, Thailand etc.
A trade deal with China will be on their terms given how big their economy is compared to ours. I think Switzerland has a deal whereby they open up immediately and china promises to do so a long way down the track.
Sounds like @Sandpit wants to see the end of what remains of Leicesters garment and footwear industry.
I wasn’t aware there was one. Please enlighten me!
Germany exports five times as much as the UK to China in goods and services. And does it from within the EU.
This is the rebuttal to Liam Fox's claim that the UK needs to be outside the EU to trade successfully with the rest of the world. And this is all that drives the Tory opposition to a Customs Union.
Last time you posted this argument I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies. You had no answer then: what’s your answer now?
I guess the question is what would we export more to China if we were outside eu. I can’t think of anything myself but interested in other opinions
Cars, planes, financial services. All of which currently have huge tariffs imposed by the Chinese - to the point where Mercedes and Airbus have set up Chinese factories for their domestic market.
Cars and planes tend to be EU products rather than of single national origin.
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
The EU doesn’t have a trade deal with China. If we can do a trade deal with China that means British-made cars are 30% cheaper than German-made cars then the rich Chinese will prefer to drive Range Rovers and McLarens rather than G-Wagens and Ferraris.
How long would that deal with China take to negotiate, and what is in it for China?
What happens if the EU negotiates a deal first, and their vehicles are 30% cheaper? or as isimore likely, set up local manufacturers under licence, as they do in Americas and Africa?
What’s in it for China is easier access to our market, unencumbered by often punitive EU external tariffs that make (for example) electronics and clothing from China much more expensive, in order to protect German, French and Italian manufacturers.
As an aside, I’d be surprised if many of our clothes were currently made in Germany, France or Italy compared to China, Bangladesh, Thailand etc.
A trade deal with China will be on their terms given how big their economy is compared to ours. I think Switzerland has a deal whereby they open up immediately and china promises to do so a long way down the track.
Correct. But if the EU were negotiating on our behalf they would be looking to protect small clothing industries in Italy and France over cheap clothing imports from China. The EU negotiates on behalf of the EU as a whole, not the UK.
Wilson may have had a minority Government but with the Liberals supporting him he had an 18 seat majority. Corbyn would not have a majority even if every single possible party bar the Tories and DUP supported him.
I do not remember the Liberals supporting the Wilson Government, Mr Tyndall. I think you are re-writing history a bit with that one.
The Lib-Lab pact was with the Govt. elected in October 1974 under Harold Wilson. The PM at the time of the pact was James Callaghan, but with no intervening general election.
Oh yes, Mr Mark, I remember that. The Labour Government at that time was quite a good one, wasn`t it? The Liberals prevented it from doing anything really unacceptable, and the country was just able to get on with its life without too much disturbance from the Government.
Unfortunately, some left-wing people thought that a Labour government ought to be doing more Socialist-type things, and so we had the Winter of Discontent. And that led on to the dreadful Thatcher years. Stupid short-sighted socialists!
You seem to have forgotten that we were run by the IMF during that golden epoch....
... and we escaped to the EU (well... EEC) and ever since the UK has become a better, cleaner and more prosperous country than previously.
Actually no. We remained a basket case even inside the EEC until we had a PM willing and able to put things right. We became a cleaner, better and more prosperous country because of Mrs Thatcher not because of the EEC.
Mrs Thatcher played a leading role in our political and economic integration within the EEC throughout her career as a frontline politician.
"If the government falls over a customs union vote there’s a chance Corbyn becomes Prime Minister without a general election." I don't see how that would happen. If the government loses a vote of (no) confidence, they are obliged by the fixed term parliament act to either win another within 14 days or call a general election. Under any other scenario May may be forced to call a leadership contest, but the Conservatives would remain the party in government. It is hard for me to imagine Corbyn (with only 259 MPs and second largest party in parliament) ever being invited to form a minority government without a general election, unless 60 Conservative MPs resign the whip.
If I am mistaken someone please let me know, I am just genuinely interested.
"If the government falls over a customs union vote there’s a chance Corbyn becomes Prime Minister without a general election." I don't see how that would happen. If the government loses a vote of (no) confidence, they are obliged by the fixed term parliament act to either win another within 14 days or call a general election. Under any other scenario May may be forced to call a leadership contest, but the Conservatives would remain the party in government. It is hard for me to imagine Corbyn (with only 259 MPs and second largest party in parliament) ever being invited to form a minority government without a general election, unless 60 Conservative MPs resign the whip.
If I am mistaken someone please let me know, I am just genuinely interested.
The key point is surely that if the existing PM resigns , the Leader of the next biggest party would be likely to be invited to try to form a Government. The closest historical parallel is probably December 1905 when AJ Balfour - despite enjoying a Commons majority of over 100 - handed the keys of No 10 to the Leader of the Opposition - Henry Campbell-Bannerman.
"If the government falls over a customs union vote there’s a chance Corbyn becomes Prime Minister without a general election." I don't see how that would happen. If the government loses a vote of (no) confidence, they are obliged by the fixed term parliament act to either win another within 14 days or call a general election. Under any other scenario May may be forced to call a leadership contest, but the Conservatives would remain the party in government. It is hard for me to imagine Corbyn (with only 259 MPs and second largest party in parliament) ever being invited to form a minority government without a general election, unless 60 Conservative MPs resign the whip.
If I am mistaken someone please let me know, I am just genuinely interested.
The key point is surely that if the existing PM resigns , the Leader of the next biggest party would be likely to be invited to try to form a Government. The closest historical parallel is probably December 1905 when AJ Balfour - despite enjoying a Commons majority of over 100 - handed the keys of No 10 to the Leader of the Opposition - Henry Campbell-Bannerman.
Constitutionally speaking a PM resigning would just spark a party leadership contest. A vote of no confidence would, essentially, force a general election.
Gordon Brown and Theresa May both became PM without an election, and it defined them as illegitimate in the public's eye. They were at least from the ruling party, and having served in prominent cabinet roles under the outgoing PM. I cannot imagine Corbyn wanting to form a government without mandate, or anyone within parliament wanting to see it happen. If May were to stand down as PM I would expect all involved to insist on a Tory leadership contest followed by a general election. A cross party agreement to just keep the lights on until the election would likely be made behind the scenes.
Comments
Yes Minister was based in part on true stories passed on by Ken Clarke and Joe Haines. Apparently real life was less far-fetched then.
As Corbyn supporters rush off to the betting shop, it probably hasnt occurred to them that this is all a bluff, and that May would never actually make it a confidence issue. Therefore, even if the government loses on the customs union issue, there would not be a general election.
As they excitedly hand over their cash to the betting clerk, it probably has not also occurred to them that losing the customs union vote-while in the short term humiliating for May, might in the medium and long term strengthen her.
Because if parliament votes for the customs union, then the 62 Mogganystas will be defeated. No one that they could replace May with would be able to deliver on the customs union issue because the Commons had voted for it. Replacing May would be pointless since no alternative PM would be able to give them what they wanted.
When it comes to the Single Market is Corbyn really going to advocate staying in when he voted against even the creation of the SM in the first place? Is he going to upset his working class voters by advocating that the UK continues with Freedom of Movement despite the Leave vote in the referendum? Labour for unlimited immigration? Good luck with that Jeremy.
So whatever the vote, there will be no general election in 2018, not even if there is a vote of no confidence after the CU vote. The Tories will stay in office until 2022, and I suspect, that the more the polls suggest a Corbyn government, the less likely a Corbyn government is likely to happen.
I would suggest that Corbyn fanatics keep their hard earned cash in their pockets, or better still, give it to the poor.
Bernie is losing some of his principled shine...
The problem is the lack of commitment. Any treaty is about "this is what will happen, what we get and what we need to do". In fact the WTO term isn't actually "rules". It's "commitments". It runs counter to the principles of international trade, which is why it will never go anywhere.
And I agree I think even if she loses the vote she would probably try to cling on.
On para 2 - I think the ERG are there already. The only way to sort it out is deselect them (impossible), do what they want (she’s trying), or win a big enough majority that they don’t matter (she tried that) There is no punishment that will change their mind - party discipline has broken down.
In any case - I don’t see how Corbyn becomes the next PM without a general election where he is facing Theresa May.
Labour have the same problem in reverse, there the membership back the leadership but the MPs don’t.
Not that Corbyn could govern in any meaningful sense without winning another election. The idea of Labour governing when the Conservatives and the DUP could vote down anything on a whim is not government. It would be a new clusterf*ck every day. Especially watching Corbyn form a Cabinet.....The Labour moderate MPs would be watching with wry amusement from the sidelines. "So this is Socialism in action, eh comrade? And how's Brexit working out for you?"
And again it does not apply in this case since even with every party bar the Tories and DUP supporting him, Corbyn still doesn't get a majority.
It is fantasy to think that in that situation there would not be a general election.
Indeed if we leave the CU, we will be defaulting to WTO tariffs, so increasing tarriffs on developing country exports.
I don’t see it happening, but it’s not impossible. If lab had a centrist leader, all the talk would be about defections right now.
Theresa: Permission to speak freely, sir?
TSE: Granted.
Theresa: I do not believe this was a fair test of my Prime Ministerial abilities.
TSE: And why not?
Theresa: Because... there was no way to win.
TSE: A no-win situation is a possibility every PM may face. Has that never occurred to you?
Theresa: No, sir, it has not.
TSE: And how we deal with Brexit is at least as important as how we deal with life, wouldn't you say?
Theresa: As I indicated, Admiral, that thought had not occurred to me.
TSE: Well, now you have something new to think about. Carry on.
Unfortunately, some left-wing people thought that a Labour government ought to be doing more Socialist-type things, and so we had the Winter of Discontent. And that led on to the dreadful Thatcher years. Stupid short-sighted socialists!
He is such a fecking cheat.
If the DUP comes out and says they will prioritise negotiating a new deal with whoever the Tories chose as leader then he’s done
PS - "May Day" is for situations where loss of life or major injury is imminent, else it should be a Pan-Pan call (also done 3 times)
The problem of the Conservative Party seems to me that it's evolving but hasn't quite decided what it's evolving to. It's significantly more socially liberal than it used to be, and significantly more Eurosceptic. Everything else seems a bit mysterious and everyone makes up their own rules - Rees-Mogg, Halton, May and Osborne are arguably more different from each other than, say, Corbyn, Creasey and Hilary Benn.
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Why would leaving the EU help these exports?
And who could blame you?
What happens if the EU negotiates a deal first, and their vehicles are 30% cheaper? or as isimore likely, set up local manufacturers under licence, as they do in Americas and Africa?
Of course, Struan's was based on Jardine Matheson which is run by Scots and trades in Asia. Dirk Struan was all for expanding British influence in China. All we need is May May and fiction apes real life.
It is a funny old world
The Palace weren't keen on Her Majesty to do that, but both parties were going to insist on it.
"I pointed out it reflected the relative compositions of the three economies."
How is that an answer to my point!
https://www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/943629845793527/
I think China remembers that better than we do.
It would likely the Tories would be having a leadership contest during those 14 days.
It could take up to 3 months to replace Mrs May.
So the Tory party night not be in a state where they can govern.
The Tories fractured over tariffs in the past, it could happen again.
A trade deal with China will be on their terms given how big their economy is compared to ours. I think Switzerland has a deal whereby they open up immediately and china promises to do so a long way down the track.
https://home.kpmg.com/xx/en/home/insights/2016/04/tnf-eu-import-duties-on-consumer-professional-electronic-products-eliminated.html
NEW THREAD
If they are having a leadership contest, surely everyone in the Tory party will be okay with May remaining PM until that contest is complete. Especially if the alternative is Corbyn as PM.
And frankly Corbyn has no interest in being PM just for the title.
He would challenge the Tories to an election rather than attempt an impossible minority government.
If I am mistaken someone please let me know, I am just genuinely interested.
Gordon Brown and Theresa May both became PM without an election, and it defined them as illegitimate in the public's eye. They were at least from the ruling party, and having served in prominent cabinet roles under the outgoing PM. I cannot imagine Corbyn wanting to form a government without mandate, or anyone within parliament wanting to see it happen. If May were to stand down as PM I would expect all involved to insist on a Tory leadership contest followed by a general election. A cross party agreement to just keep the lights on until the election would likely be made behind the scenes.
https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/a-tale-of-two-brexit-speeches-and-an-eu-protocol-the-prologue