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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The uncertainty over Brexit and TMay are set to make this year

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited February 26 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The uncertainty over Brexit and TMay are set to make this year’s locals more significant than usual

We are little over two months away from this year’s local elections which because of the febrile political situation could have wider consequences than just who runs the local council.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    First! Like Mrs May, Leave and No!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    What’s perceived as a poor set of results could be the trigger for a leadership move against TMay. a General Election and a Corbyn ministry ......which may give some pause for thought......
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 843
    I feel it will require a bigger change than some council election losses. I get the impression the original idea was after the Brexit deal (even if that deal is a holding position for a future transition) if May can't get a Brexit deal through then I wonder if any Conservative leader could and if not then what difference does replacing her really make.

    I suppose it could be the ultimate act of rebellion if you feel the direction is completely wrong and have to make a stand (or for negative reasons for anyone who doesn't like the person)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,349
    Good Morning impending frozen PBers nationwide ....

    The BBC "Sunday Politics" had a piece on the London elections, based on the recent YouGov poll, indicating that the Conservatives might retain just 1 or 2 councils in London, even the prospect of losing Westminster.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09rzbnk/sunday-politics-25022018

    From around 29:30.
  • The collapse of UKIP may leave enough seats won for there to be meat for the Tories, outside of London the Lib Dem and Labour performance may be under a lot of scrutiny and I havent a clue how that will pan out, I suspect anything can be explained away by special factors although the Lib Dems need something to cheer, even the prospect of a byelection in the wind may be enough to raise their game but otherwise it looks their lean spell will continue
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241
    In Leeds the entire council is up for election due to boundary changes. We might lose some seats as a result of split ticket voting - e.g. 2 Labour + 1 Green.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    edited February 26

    The collapse of UKIP may leave enough seats won for there to be meat for the Tories, outside of London the Lib Dem and Labour performance may be under a lot of scrutiny and I havent a clue how that will pan out, I suspect anything can be explained away by special factors although the Lib Dems need something to cheer, even the prospect of a byelection in the wind may be enough to raise their game but otherwise it looks their lean spell will continue

    But with the media almost all based in London it's the London results that will get the most coverage. Thatcher suffered some pretty poor results in the 1980s but good results in outer London meant that the headlines didn't reflect this. As there is no reason to expect the Tories to do anything other than disastrously in London at this moment that's unfortunate for them.

    That said I don't think local election results would be the trigger for a move against May in May (sorry for the grammar). They might however make an autumn putsch more likely when the EU talks have reached agreement/collapsed entirely due to Davis' incompetence and Barnier's intransigence.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    One of favourite bits of Christmas every year is my Matt book of cartoons. There always seem to have been plenty that I have missed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    DavidL said:

    One of favourite bits of Christmas every year is my Matt book of cartoons. There always seem to have been plenty that I have missed.
    When I was a child the Giles Christmas annual was something to look forward to......I think Matt's the only current cartoonist remotely in the same league.....many of today's cartoonists simply aren't funny....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367

    The collapse of UKIP may leave enough seats won for there to be meat for the Tories, outside of London the Lib Dem and Labour performance may be under a lot of scrutiny and I havent a clue how that will pan out, I suspect anything can be explained away by special factors although the Lib Dems need something to cheer, even the prospect of a byelection in the wind may be enough to raise their game but otherwise it looks their lean spell will continue

    They did well in that "super Thursday" recently when there was a series of bye elections around the country but they were still bye elections. May is a much bigger test with their resources much more thinly committed. Their cumulative losses in LG since the Coalition are immense. They will want to show some signs of recovery, most obviously in the leafier parts of London.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241
    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367

    DavidL said:

    One of favourite bits of Christmas every year is my Matt book of cartoons. There always seem to have been plenty that I have missed.
    When I was a child the Giles Christmas annual was something to look forward to......I think Matt's the only current cartoonist remotely in the same league.....many of today's cartoonists simply aren't funny....
    My wife was a fan of the Gambols for many years and used to get their annual. They weren't as concise as Matt but did try to make something of current events. So many others are just frankly stupid and boorish. I wish they didn't bother.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    This'll confuse Twitter:

    UNIVERSITY chiefs were yesterday told by Ministers to hand the wages of striking lecturers to STUDENTS.

    Education Minister Sam Gyimah waded into the bitter industrial action to say youngsters should be compensated for the disruption caused to their courses


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5670190/education-minister-tells-universities-to-give-striking-lecturers-pay-back-to-students/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    DavidL said:

    The collapse of UKIP may leave enough seats won for there to be meat for the Tories, outside of London the Lib Dem and Labour performance may be under a lot of scrutiny and I havent a clue how that will pan out, I suspect anything can be explained away by special factors although the Lib Dems need something to cheer, even the prospect of a byelection in the wind may be enough to raise their game but otherwise it looks their lean spell will continue

    They did well in that "super Thursday" recently when there was a series of bye elections around the country but they were still bye elections. May is a much bigger test with their resources much more thinly committed. Their cumulative losses in LG since the Coalition are immense. They will want to show some signs of recovery, most obviously in the leafier parts of London.
    They do OK-ish at locals (although that "super Thursday" flattered a little by winning two seats where the previous Tory councillor was jailed for bludgeoning his wife with a mallet). But general elections are still bye-bye elections for the LibDems.....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,267
    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    We had a light flurry - nothing serious. Tomorrow is when I'm expecting fun.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    DavidL said:

    One of favourite bits of Christmas every year is my Matt book of cartoons. There always seem to have been plenty that I have missed.
    Matt is an absolute genius. No other cartoonist comes close to raising a smile every day.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    I think overall those who are in Government expect to lose LG seats. Last year was something of an exception and undoubtedly led to some of the delusions of the GE campaign. Most parties go through a hollowing out process which ultimately facilitates their loss of power at Westminster as their base is weakened. It happened to the Tories pre 97 and Labour after it.

    At the moment the Tories have an immensely strong base in LG. I think that they will be quite sanguine about the loss of 100 seats or so, particularly in Councils where they already have little say. The recoveries from UKIP should reduce the net damage to acceptable proportions.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    Looks like Thursday will be the big dump on the south-west.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.
    Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no dnager of them being affected.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    One of favourite bits of Christmas every year is my Matt book of cartoons. There always seem to have been plenty that I have missed.
    Matt is an absolute genius. No other cartoonist comes close to raising a smile every day.
    Brilliant.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314

    Looks like Thursday will be the big dump on the south-west.

    Is that weather or Brexit concessions on agriculture?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    Well there's no snow in Dubai today. :(

    We did have some rain yesterday though, which has the same effect of making everyone forget how to drive!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.

    For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,267

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.
    Snowing a bit more substantialy now. As forecast by Accuweather.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,521
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    We had a light flurry - nothing serious. Tomorrow is when I'm expecting fun.
    No snow here in my part of Sussex and the ground isn't frosty either...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,267

    The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.

    For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?

    Tory straw-clutching.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.
    Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no danger of them being affected.
    Which does make me idly wonder - if you spent quite a lot of time, however many geraniums do you have? And just how big is your sun room?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,815
    So Corbyn is a remainer now ?

    Jezza and Tony Blair arm in arm fighting the good fight to ignore the referendum.

    How unsurprising.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.
    Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no danger of them being affected.
    Which does make me idly wonder - if you spent quite a lot of time, however many geraniums do you have? And just how big is your sun room?
    http://www.edenproject.com/sites/default/files/biomes_0.jpg
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.

    For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?

    Tory straw-clutching.
    We'll see. Don't be surprised if the papers run with "Corbyn bins Brexit" or "Corbyn caves to Brussels" though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314

    The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.

    For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?

    The problem is that substitute 'Tory' for 'Labour' and to most voters that critique would look equally valid. The big problem through this whole process has been that not one person has a realistic position and a clear idea how to get there.

    To call Barnier's mindless posturing a dishonest fantasy would be to dignify it. He seems to genuinely believe that he can impose any conditions he likes and there will be no consequences or potential downsides for the EU, or better yet that we will simply give up and remain (at least, that's the only logical explanation for his lies and smear tactics although as he is an associate of Juncker we should also perhaps consider the possibility he is drunk all the time). May has set out several position papers some of which are mutually incompatible (for example, no borders and restrictions on immigration) most of which she has subsequently ignored depending on which group of Tory rebels is shouting the loudest. And Corbyn - well, let's face it, he hasn't come to a decision because he's a straightforward populist and in this situation there is no popular option for him and he hasn't the brainpower to work out on for himself. As a result, most of the actual work is done by Starmer, a rather creepy and oily lawyer chiefly memorable for his mighty mess-ups as DPP.

    If this was about a snooker club it would be funny. As the consequences could be a nasty trade war which would damage the entire continent it is not.

    I never, ever thought I would be nostalgic for Brown. But right now I am.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617

    The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.

    For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?

    Tory straw-clutching.
    We'll see. Don't be surprised if the papers run with "Corbyn bins Brexit" or "Corbyn caves to Brussels" though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.
    Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no danger of them being affected.
    Which does make me idly wonder - if you spent quite a lot of time, however many geraniums do you have? And just how big is your sun room?
    Only five pots, but they're very large so it isn't easy to move them, and it also took time to find the rubber mats I was putting them on. (The answer to your second question is, too big, because the previous owner was a bit odd that way.)
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 583

    The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.

    For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?

    As someone who doesn't want to be ruled from Brussels/Berlin, I was comfortable voting Labour last June in the belief that the party supported Brexit. l now appear to have be misled by Corbyn's U-turn, although I suspect he is being pushed rather than leading on this issue.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,267

    The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.

    For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?

    Tory straw-clutching.
    We'll see. Don't be surprised if the papers run with "Corbyn bins Brexit" or "Corbyn caves to Brussels" though.
    There was an interesting snippet somewhere yesterday which said that every time the Heil attacks Corbyn like this, membership of Momentum, spikes. People here, too, have commented that hysterical attacks like this seem counter-productive.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,252
    TGOHF said:

    So Corbyn is a remainer now ?

    Jezza and Tony Blair arm in arm fighting the good fight to ignore the referendum.

    How unsurprising.

    Jezza, Tony Blair, and most of the Cabinet if wanting a tariff-free deal with the EU is what defines a Remainer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314

    TGOHF said:

    So Corbyn is a remainer now ?

    Jezza and Tony Blair arm in arm fighting the good fight to ignore the referendum.

    How unsurprising.

    Jezza, Tony Blair, and most of the Cabinet if wanting a tariff-free deal with the EU is what defines a Remainer.
    I misread that for a moment, and I was wondering how bad things are if even Jesus has to be invoked to support Labour's position!

    As it turns out it was not the Messiah...

    Work beckons alas. Have a good day everyone.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241
    No snow in Leeds, however I have managed a downpour of coffee on my keyboard. If my posts make even less sense than normal, I've got an excuse!

    On topic, while not many Labourites might know the intricate details of "the" and "a" Customs Union, we all know about giving the Tories a bloody nose by inflicting a government defeat on their Brexit policy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197
    Odd to see Tories and the Daily Mail demand Corbyn implement his 2017 manifesto. Their attacks are increasingly random.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241
    Scott_P said:
    3. Bugger it, we might as well stay in the EU, since this would be BINO.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    Scott_P said:
    3. Bugger it, we might as well stay in the EU, since this would be BINO.
    I've asked her if she will respect the four freedoms.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    Clear the diary. Order the popcorn. The prime minister is scheduled to give another big Brexit speech this week, when the definitive strategy will finally be revealed. From reports of the recent Chequers meeting, we can guess the gist: “Let me be clear that Britain is clear about what we want. Leave means leave, which means compliance and divergence; divergent compliance. We will have a red, white and blue Brexit, but one that is also not incompatible with yellow and blue. The EU might be the masters of our ship for a transitional period, but ultimately we will be the captains of our soul.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/may-s-carnival-of-indecision-over-brexit-has-cost-us-dear-g3qjq8bh6
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490
    At present, I'd expect the local elections to be reasonable for the Tories, given that most seats were last contested in 2014. Next year, I expect they'll lose a load of seats.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,466



    We'll see. Don't be surprised if the papers run with "Corbyn bins Brexit" or "Corbyn caves to Brussels" though.

    Whatever. People who believe the papers (not the same as people who buy them - I know Labour people who read the Mail for the feature stuff) are not going to vote Labour anyway, 'cos it seems we're traitors and spies. BBC coverage will be important, and I expect that'll be the usual "He said X but...".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490
    JackW said:

    Good Morning impending frozen PBers nationwide ....

    The BBC "Sunday Politics" had a piece on the London elections, based on the recent YouGov poll, indicating that the Conservatives might retain just 1 or 2 councils in London, even the prospect of losing Westminster.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09rzbnk/sunday-politics-25022018

    From around 29:30.

    I'd say 6 or 7 London councils is the most likely result.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.
    Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no danger of them being affected.
    Which does make me idly wonder - if you spent quite a lot of time, however many geraniums do you have? And just how big is your sun room?
    http://www.edenproject.com/sites/default/files/biomes_0.jpg
    Hopefully not like its distant predecessor:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthaeum,_Hove
  • It'll be interesting to see JC's speech this today,...judging how May's much trailled Florence speech ended up not saying very much at all, I am not holding my breath and I wonder quite whether it will end up being that ground-breaking.

    Does it put May's speech in a few days even more under pressure? (and we know how well she responds to that)........
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Force India and Toro Rosso unveiled:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43195086

    And testing's livefeed is here:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43190400
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241
    Yorkcity said:
    I see that the coal-fired power stations are running essentially flat out as a result of a spike in natural gas prices. Nice to see that money trumps CO2 emissions. If the carbon floor price and/or EU ETS price was set higher, this wouldn't happen.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    Barry Gardiner telling us little with lots of word about Labour's pie in the sky positioning on Brexit.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    It'll be interesting to see JC's speech this today,...judging how May's much trailled Florence speech ended up not saying very much at all, I am not holding my breath and I wonder quite whether it will end up being that ground-breaking.

    Does it put May's speech in a few days even more under pressure? (and we know how well she responds to that)........

    I confidently predict May's speech will be meaningless gibberish. I'm praying I'm wrong.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,267
    Mortimer said:

    Barry Gardiner telling us little with lots of word about Labour's pie in the sky positioning on Brexit.

    Pie in the sky from one side, have cake and eat it from the other.

    Are we in danger of eating ourselves out of house and home?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    @IanDunt: Barry Gardiner sounds exactly like a Tory rejecting the single market. Precise same rhetoric, even the same phrases.

    @IanDunt: Corbyn supporters should listen closely. This is what happens when you reject one of the greatest international solidarity projects in history.
  • ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.
    Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no dnager of them being affected.
    Plenty on the Lincolnshire Edge this morning. Bloody cold as well.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    Scott_P said:

    @IanDunt: Barry Gardiner sounds exactly like a Tory rejecting the single market. Precise same rhetoric, even the same phrases.

    @IanDunt: Corbyn supporters should listen closely. This is what happens when you reject one of the greatest international solidarity projects in history.

    Remainers might want to reflect that if Tory and Labour leaderships reject something, it might be because the people reject it?

    Or they could go wah, wah, wah some more
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799



    We'll see. Don't be surprised if the papers run with "Corbyn bins Brexit" or "Corbyn caves to Brussels" though.

    Whatever. People who believe the papers (not the same as people who buy them - I know Labour people who read the Mail for the feature stuff) are not going to vote Labour anyway, 'cos it seems we're traitors and spies. BBC coverage will be important, and I expect that'll be the usual "He said X but...".
    The bigger issue that WILL resonate is "what is this going to cost, Jeremy? How much would you pay to keep this CU?" Be the same old same old, Labour throwing other people's money at a problem.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited February 26

    Mortimer said:

    Barry Gardiner telling us little with lots of word about Labour's pie in the sky positioning on Brexit.

    Pie in the sky from one side, have cake and eat it from the other.

    Are we in danger of eating ourselves out of house and home?
    A commitment to EFTA/EEA for 10+ years would be a better interim position. I really don't understand the rush for the exits. Still, I get no more votes, so it's out with the dogs under incredibly leaden Somerset skies.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,349

    Looks like Thursday will be the big dump on the south-west.

    Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Dorset to enjoy the pleasures of a Mark Oaten speaking tour??
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    Remember though that Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% as the chart shows and UKIP got 17% much of which will now go to Tory candidates.

    It may well be that with the national polls almost tied because Corbyn is starting from a much higher base than the general election, as he was in the 2017 local elections, the Tories may do a bit better than expected and Labour a bit worse
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. P, mildly amused at someone promoting the single market (but not in services, of course) with the term 'one of the greatest international solidarity projects in history'.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241

    Mr. P, mildly amused at someone promoting the single market (but not in services, of course) with the term 'one of the greatest international solidarity projects in history'.

    Oh, I thought that was a reference to the Warsaw Pact!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    @faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
    ... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes

    shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited February 26
    JackW said:

    Good Morning impending frozen PBers nationwide ....

    The BBC "Sunday Politics" had a piece on the London elections, based on the recent YouGov poll, indicating that the Conservatives might retain just 1 or 2 councils in London, even the prospect of losing Westminster.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09rzbnk/sunday-politics-25022018

    From around 29:30.

    The Tories will almost certainly retain Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon and gain Havering and have an outside chance of taking Sutton. Other than Barnet with its big Jewish vote, Labour need at least around 10 net gains to gain Wandsworth, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. The LDs may find it easier to take Kingston Upon Thames and Richmond Park.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
    ... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes

    shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?

    Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?

    Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.
    Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no dnager of them being affected.
    Plenty on the Lincolnshire Edge this morning. Bloody cold as well.
    The Lincolnshire Edge sounds slightly more remote than the Shoulder of Orion.

    And colder.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,113
    Frank Field for labour leader,a very principled man and politician.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
    ... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes

    shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?

    Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?

    Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.
    Single market “membership” with no “Freedom of Movement” would be the mother of all cherries.....which is why the British government didn’t waste any time arguing for it.....but Labour will?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
    ... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes

    shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?

    Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?

    Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.
    Single market “membership” with no “Freedom of Movement” would be the mother of all cherries.....which is why the British government didn’t waste any time arguing for it.....but Labour will?
    Labour are starting to look very silly, before Jeremy has even said a word.

    Why has the man who has not changed his mind on anything since the 1970s suddenly changed his mind? Bangs goes "stable". His USP has gone. And why now - when STFU about Brexit seemed to be working so well for them?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    Frank Field for labour leader,a very principled man and politician.

    He has more chance of being Tory leader at the moment
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
    ... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes

    shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?

    Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?

    Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.
    Single market “membership” with no “Freedom of Movement” would be the mother of all cherries.....which is why the British government didn’t waste any time arguing for it.....but Labour will?
    Labour are starting to look very silly, before Jeremy has even said a word.

    Why has the man who has not changed his mind on anything since the 1970s suddenly changed his mind? Bangs goes "stable". His USP has gone. And why now - when STFU about Brexit seemed to be working so well for them?
    Because Labour's research reckons that Labour Leavers are soft Leavers whose party loyalty trumps European issues, and the DNVers who turned out for EUref won't bother in a GE.

    He's looking to bring down May's administration. In fairness, it would be a mercy killing.

    Politically it's quite clever, and I think it's worth the gamble. Muggles won't be paying attention anyway.
  • HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Good Morning impending frozen PBers nationwide ....

    The BBC "Sunday Politics" had a piece on the London elections, based on the recent YouGov poll, indicating that the Conservatives might retain just 1 or 2 councils in London, even the prospect of losing Westminster.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09rzbnk/sunday-politics-25022018

    From around 29:30.

    The Tories will almost certainly retain Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon and gain Havering and have an outside chance of taking Sutton. Other than Barnet with its big Jewish vote, Labour need at least around 10 net gains to gain Wandsworth, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. The LDs may find it easier to take Kingston Upon Thames and Richmond Park.
    Out of interest, why do you think the LDs could lose Sutton?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
    ... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes

    shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?

    Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?

    Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.
    Single market “membership” with no “Freedom of Movement” would be the mother of all cherries.....which is why the British government didn’t waste any time arguing for it.....but Labour will?
    Labour are starting to look very silly, before Jeremy has even said a word.

    Why has the man who has not changed his mind on anything since the 1970s suddenly changed his mind? Bangs goes "stable". His USP has gone. And why now - when STFU about Brexit seemed to be working so well for them?
    The Tories are poised to lose a Commons vote on their Brexit policy, and it is Labour who are looking silly?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    F1: first red flag is caused by McLaren. It turns out Formula 1 cars work best with four wheels attached.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 595
    Snow flurries starting on the Yorkshire Dales-Forest of Bowland borders... Scafell and the Southern Lakeland hills looking resplendently wintery in the distance...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Good Morning impending frozen PBers nationwide ....

    The BBC "Sunday Politics" had a piece on the London elections, based on the recent YouGov poll, indicating that the Conservatives might retain just 1 or 2 councils in London, even the prospect of losing Westminster.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09rzbnk/sunday-politics-25022018

    From around 29:30.

    The Tories will almost certainly retain Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon and gain Havering and have an outside chance of taking Sutton. Other than Barnet with its big Jewish vote, Labour need at least around 10 net gains to gain Wandsworth, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. The LDs may find it easier to take Kingston Upon Thames and Richmond Park.
    Out of interest, why do you think the LDs could lose Sutton?
    The Tories hold the parliamentary seat
  • ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.
    Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no dnager of them being affected.
    Plenty on the Lincolnshire Edge this morning. Bloody cold as well.
    The Lincolnshire Edge sounds slightly more remote than the Shoulder of Orion.

    And colder.
    Just turn left at the Tannhauser Gate and then straight on 'til morning. :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,804

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
    ... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes

    shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?

    Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?

    Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.
    Single market “membership” with no “Freedom of Movement” would be the mother of all cherries.....which is why the British government didn’t waste any time arguing for it.....but Labour will?
    Labour are starting to look very silly, before Jeremy has even said a word.

    Why has the man who has not changed his mind on anything since the 1970s suddenly changed his mind? Bangs goes "stable". His USP has gone. And why now - when STFU about Brexit seemed to be working so well for them?
    The Tories are poised to lose a Commons vote on their Brexit policy, and it is Labour who are looking silly?
    The Tories have a Brexit policy?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Force India and Toro Rosso unveiled:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43195086

    And testing's livefeed is here:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43190400

    Thanks for that.

    And it appears the new McLaren has just three wheels. It seems a novel approach to racing car design: take the old Tyrell six-wheeler and half the number of wheels to reduce friction. I'm unsure it'll be very fast, though... ;)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    edited February 26

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Force India and Toro Rosso unveiled:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43195086

    And testing's livefeed is here:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43190400

    < MurrayWalker >

    F1 2018 is GO GO GO!!!!

    < / MurrayWalker >

    *Unless your name’s Alonso, in which case you’re sitting beached in a gravel trap with three wheels on your wagon.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,113
    HYUFD said:

    Frank Field for labour leader,a very principled man and politician.

    He has more chance of being Tory leader at the moment
    I know,just had to get the word 'Principled' in for a labour politician.

    The labour movement must stop the labour London mafia running a once great party.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,857
    Labour are in very dangerous territory here.

    As a Labour leaver we have to have Brexit and it has to give us power to make our own decisions.

    Much as I admire Jezza there are definitely lines like 2nd referendums or membership of the single market I would not be prepared to cross and still vote Labour
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,488

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ah, the feigned incomprehension defence.

    No, just greatly bemused by your unwarranted tirade.
    Well, review your own posting history, then. You were giving it very large about how this was the worst thing to happen in the history of ever, and how saying that the women involved were mostly fine with it was "victim blaming", and you are still appending it to a list which has Jimmy Savile in it. So the fact that GOSH aren't fussed enough to reject the donation makes your position look a bit weak.

    Unless there are two of you posting under the same name, in which case apologies.
    My position is consistent, and yours is ... well, stupid.

    I never said: "this was the worst thing to happen in the history of ever,". I suggest you review my posting history, as you're making stuff up. I did say that someone claiming that all the non-journalist women were 'escorts' was victim-blaming, as there was no evidence of that, and even if it was true, which it almost certainly was not, it did not make what happened right.

    There are many points I could make about this, but I doubt you'd even give them proper consideration as you seem rather stuck in a rut with your attitudes. But I'll try with one:

    snip

    Well, the Weinstein story has apparently caused a little shift in opinion. Suddenly, it's not alright. This is bad for us men, for instance minor transgressors (such as Green) will get swept up with the real sinners. But perhaps that is what 'we' deserve for so much bad behaviour over the years.

    There is one further point to make: the Presidents' Club story appears to have had a direct connection with the Oxfam story coming out, and it looks as though charities working with vulnerable people may start sorting their acts out instead of sweeping things under the carpet. This is a good thing.

    Here's a TL;DR, just to make it clear to you:
    It's about how we value others, particularly those who have less authority and power than us.
    Gotcha

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/5918/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-at-100-1-or-longer-osborne-dmiliband-tblair-for-next-ld-lea/p2
    Your accusation of "victim blaming" is in response to my post which says not a word about hostesses. If you are going to call me stupid, that's fine because I know I am not, whereas lying about your own posting history when you know it is searchable is not Mensa level behaviour.

    Mind you searching the site is so bloody laborious that I'm not doing it again, so feel free to witter on about isolated instance, taken out of context, yada yada. And GOSH have cut you off at the knees, rather than inflicting a mere flesh wound.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197

    Labour are in very dangerous territory here.

    As a Labour leaver we have to have Brexit and it has to give us power to make our own decisions.

    Much as I admire Jezza there are definitely lines like 2nd referendums or membership of the single market I would not be prepared to cross and still vote Labour

    Labour remainers >>> Labour leavers

    It's simple maths.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    Quick, let’s liquidate the company before the lawsuits come in...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241

    Labour are in very dangerous territory here.

    As a Labour leaver we have to have Brexit and it has to give us power to make our own decisions.

    Much as I admire Jezza there are definitely lines like 2nd referendums or membership of the single market I would not be prepared to cross and still vote Labour

    As a fellow Labour Leaver, I'm less fussed. I recognise that I am in a minority position in the party, so if my fellow Labourites wished to campaaign for the softest of soft Brexits I would just suck it up. Brexit is not a defining issue for me - being a Socialist is.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,857
    Jonathan said:

    Labour are in very dangerous territory here.

    As a Labour leaver we have to have Brexit and it has to give us power to make our own decisions.

    Much as I admire Jezza there are definitely lines like 2nd referendums or membership of the single market I would not be prepared to cross and still vote Labour

    Labour remainers >>> Labour leavers

    It's simple maths.
    We ain't going to remain though. And as far as I can see Labour Remainers havent jumped ship with the current stance.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Force India and Toro Rosso unveiled:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43195086

    And testing's livefeed is here:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43190400

    Thanks for that.

    And it appears the new McLaren has just three wheels. It seems a novel approach to racing car design: take the old Tyrell six-wheeler and half the number of wheels to reduce friction. I'm unsure it'll be very fast, though... ;)
    They could try designing some vehicles with only 2 wheels. A bit like bikes, but with engines. They would be much narrower, and there would be better opportunities for overtaking. You would think that someone might have thought of this before...
  • No wonder Corbyn’s an Arsenal.

    This is the sort of behaviour i expect from cretinous West Ham and Chelsea fans.



  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,905
    HYUFD said:


    The Tories will almost certainly retain Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon and gain Havering and have an outside chance of taking Sutton. Other than Barnet with its big Jewish vote, Labour need at least around 10 net gains to gain Wandsworth, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. The LDs may find it easier to take Kingston Upon Thames and Richmond Park.

    So much depends on whether Labour can mobilise its 2017 GE vote as effectively for a set of local contests. The reported swing of 13.5% should worry Inner London Conservatives as that will cause problems but the swing in the Outer London area of 4.5% since 2014 less so.

    On those numbers Hillingdon should be retained albeit with a much reduced majority - I think Havering is very hard to call and assuming a Conservative gain seems to assume a transfer from UKIP to CON which may or may not happen.

    You've gone on about the "Jewish vote" in Barnet but the swing needed for Labour to take control is incredibly small.

    As for Sutton, "outside chance", well, perhaps and I did cite this as a possibility last year but the LDs held the Borough for a decade before they captured the Parliamentary seats so it's not a simple rationale that because the Conservatives now hold Sutton & Cheam they will mop up the Council seats.
  • ydoethur said:

    The collapse of UKIP may leave enough seats won for there to be meat for the Tories, outside of London the Lib Dem and Labour performance may be under a lot of scrutiny and I havent a clue how that will pan out, I suspect anything can be explained away by special factors although the Lib Dems need something to cheer, even the prospect of a byelection in the wind may be enough to raise their game but otherwise it looks their lean spell will continue

    But with the media almost all based in London it's the London results that will get the most coverage. Thatcher suffered some pretty poor results in the 1980s but good results in outer London meant that the headlines didn't reflect this. As there is no reason to expect the Tories to do anything other than disastrously in London at this moment that's unfortunate for them.

    That said I don't think local election results would be the trigger for a move against May in May (sorry for the grammar). They might however make an autumn putsch more likely when the EU talks have reached agreement/collapsed entirely due to Davis' incompetence and Barnier's intransigence.
    You're thinking of 1990 when the Conservative leadership tried to make the results all about Wandsworth and Westminster.

    And showed how out of touch they were the rest of the country and the Conservative MPs who had their constituencies there.

    Within six months Thatcher was gone.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_1990
This discussion has been closed.