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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The uncertainty over Brexit and TMay are set to make this year

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,846

    Labour are in very dangerous territory here.

    As a Labour leaver we have to have Brexit and it has to give us power to make our own decisions.

    Much as I admire Jezza there are definitely lines like 2nd referendums or membership of the single market I would not be prepared to cross and still vote Labour

    As a fellow Labour Leaver, I'm less fussed. I recognise that I am in a minority position in the party, so if my fellow Labourites wished to campaaign for the softest of soft Brexits I would just suck it up. Brexit is not a defining issue for me - being a Socialist is.
    As a Socialist did you vote for Blair post Iraq?

    I didn't an illegal war was too important for me.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,487
    Suggesting that parties which were defeated at the general election are obliged to abide by their manifesto commitments is a rather novel constitutional theory...

    Not sure it will find much traction with the voting public.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Labour are in very dangerous territory here.

    As a Labour leaver we have to have Brexit and it has to give us power to make our own decisions.

    Much as I admire Jezza there are definitely lines like 2nd referendums or membership of the single market I would not be prepared to cross and still vote Labour

    Labour remainers >>> Labour leavers

    It's simple maths.
    We ain't going to remain though. And as far as I can see Labour Remainers havent jumped ship with the current stance.
    It's getting to crunch time.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859

    No wonder Corbyn’s an Arsenal.

    This is the sort of behaviour i expect from cretinous West Ham and Chelsea fans.

    ttps://twitter.com/Peston/status/967792953371570176

    ttps://twitter.com/Peston/status/967832823196512256

    Not seeing the link between the fans being racist and the manager being sacked myself.

    Every football club has it’s fair share of moron supporters, a bunch of our lot were caught singing a song about Munich at OT a couple of years ago.

    The good thing is that there’s a lot less of it now than there used to be.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,487
    edited February 2018

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Force India and Toro Rosso unveiled:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43195086

    And testing's livefeed is here:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43190400

    Thanks for that.

    And it appears the new McLaren has just three wheels. It seems a novel approach to racing car design: take the old Tyrell six-wheeler and half the number of wheels to reduce friction. I'm unsure it'll be very fast, though... ;)
    Not really novel, since the concept is over a century old...
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgan_Motor_Company

    (Though if you're using the Morris Dancer understanding of novel...
    :smile: )
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,709
    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    The Tories will almost certainly retain Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon and gain Havering and have an outside chance of taking Sutton. Other than Barnet with its big Jewish vote, Labour need at least around 10 net gains to gain Wandsworth, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. The LDs may find it easier to take Kingston Upon Thames and Richmond Park.

    So much depends on whether Labour can mobilise its 2017 GE vote as effectively for a set of local contests. The reported swing of 13.5% should worry Inner London Conservatives as that will cause problems but the swing in the Outer London area of 4.5% since 2014 less so.

    On those numbers Hillingdon should be retained albeit with a much reduced majority - I think Havering is very hard to call and assuming a Conservative gain seems to assume a transfer from UKIP to CON which may or may not happen.

    You've gone on about the "Jewish vote" in Barnet but the swing needed for Labour to take control is incredibly small.

    As for Sutton, "outside chance", well, perhaps and I did cite this as a possibility last year but the LDs held the Borough for a decade before they captured the Parliamentary seats so it's not a simple rationale that because the Conservatives now hold Sutton & Cheam they will mop up the Council seats.
    This year the story is going to be of Con losses in London, even if they’re outweighed by gains elsewhere. The spin machine is going to have to work hard to counter that narrative. The media have already decided that *everyone* hates Tories and hates Brexit, mainly because they never leave the bubble.
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,977

    Jonathan said:

    Labour are in very dangerous territory here.

    As a Labour leaver we have to have Brexit and it has to give us power to make our own decisions.

    Much as I admire Jezza there are definitely lines like 2nd referendums or membership of the single market I would not be prepared to cross and still vote Labour

    Labour remainers >>> Labour leavers

    It's simple maths.
    We ain't going to remain though. And as far as I can see Labour Remainers havent jumped ship with the current stance.

    Labour are in very dangerous territory here.

    As a Labour leaver we have to have Brexit and it has to give us power to make our own decisions.

    Much as I admire Jezza there are definitely lines like 2nd referendums or membership of the single market I would not be prepared to cross and still vote Labour

    If the Tories were any good on capitalising on issues like these i would agree with you. They arent, so Labour will be fine.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.
    Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no dnager of them being affected.
    Plenty on the Lincolnshire Edge this morning. Bloody cold as well.
    The Lincolnshire Edge sounds slightly more remote than the Shoulder of Orion.

    And colder.
    Just turn left at the Tannhauser Gate and then straight on 'til morning. :)
    All these moments will be lost, like posts in the PB archive... :D
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Gotcha

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/5918/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-at-100-1-or-longer-osborne-dmiliband-tblair-for-next-ld-lea/p2
    Your accusation of "victim blaming" is in response to my post which says not a word about hostesses. If you are going to call me stupid, that's fine because I know I am not, whereas lying about your own posting history when you know it is searchable is not Mensa level behaviour.

    Mind you searching the site is so bloody laborious that I'm not doing it again, so feel free to witter on about isolated instance, taken out of context, yada yada. And GOSH have cut you off at the knees, rather than inflicting a mere flesh wound.

    I fail to see how that is in any way a 'gotcha'. You should perhaps read the post I reply to, where you say: "The waitresses or whatever you call them..."

    You might also try addressing the points I am making. As for GOSH; that has hardly 'cut me off at my knees', and nor does it make what went on right. At no point are you arguing my points, you're just going off on silly attacks against me personally. And BTW, I'm 44, and therefore not particularly elderly. ;)

    To get to what I see as the important part of the topic, and which you utterly ignore, I'll repeat when I said in the previous thread:
    It's about how we value others, particularly those who have less authority and power than us.
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    The danger for Corbyn is that he angers the remainers in his party by not committing to the single market and angers leavers as staying in a customs union negates so many trade options and is not going to provide a clean break

    Barry Gardiner all over the place on the media this morning and Corbyns decision has opened more questions than answers for him.

    Also by speaking today it provides 5 days for TM to fine tune her big speech on friday

    Corbyns decision has probably caused labour damage in leave areas

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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
    ... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes

    shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?

    Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?

    Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.
    Single market “membership” with no “Freedom of Movement” would be the mother of all cherries.....which is why the British government didn’t waste any time arguing for it.....but Labour will?
    Labour are starting to look very silly, before Jeremy has even said a word.

    Why has the man who has not changed his mind on anything since the 1970s suddenly changed his mind? Bangs goes "stable". His USP has gone. And why now - when STFU about Brexit seemed to be working so well for them?
    Because Labour's research reckons that Labour Leavers are soft Leavers whose party loyalty trumps European issues, and the DNVers who turned out for EUref won't bother in a GE.

    He's looking to bring down May's administration. In fairness, it would be a mercy killing.

    Politically it's quite clever, and I think it's worth the gamble. Muggles won't be paying attention anyway.
    Also Labour Leavers didn't vote out because they fancied signing lots of free trade deals with the US and China.

    The incoherence of Vote Leave may not have cost them the referendum but it will mean a botched Brexit that will see us either rejoining the EU or subsisting as a vassal state.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    The Tories will almost certainly retain Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon and gain Havering and have an outside chance of taking Sutton. Other than Barnet with its big Jewish vote, Labour need at least around 10 net gains to gain Wandsworth, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. The LDs may find it easier to take Kingston Upon Thames and Richmond Park.

    So much depends on whether Labour can mobilise its 2017 GE vote as effectively for a set of local contests. The reported swing of 13.5% should worry Inner London Conservatives as that will cause problems but the swing in the Outer London area of 4.5% since 2014 less so.

    On those numbers Hillingdon should be retained albeit with a much reduced majority - I think Havering is very hard to call and assuming a Conservative gain seems to assume a transfer from UKIP to CON which may or may not happen.

    You've gone on about the "Jewish vote" in Barnet but the swing needed for Labour to take control is incredibly small.

    As for Sutton, "outside chance", well, perhaps and I did cite this as a possibility last year but the LDs held the Borough for a decade before they captured the Parliamentary seats so it's not a simple rationale that because the Conservatives now hold Sutton & Cheam they will mop up the Council seats.
    The Tories won all 3 Barnet seats last June and would hold the Council by about 1 seat if wards there voted the same as at the general election. I actually think Wandsworth may be a better bet for
    Labour than Barnet as Labour won 2/3 of the seats there at the general election.

    Sutton both voted Leave and has a Tory MP with a big majority
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Sadly it appears there were four fatalities in the Leicester fire last night. Shop and flat above collapsed.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5433447/Police-rush-Leicester-house-explosion-reported.html
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    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
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    May or Corbyn:

    The European Union is not the root of all our problems and leaving it will not solve all our problems. Likewise, the EU is not the source of all enlightenment and leaving it does not inevitably spell doom for our country.

    There will be some who will tell you that Brexit is a disaster for this country and some who will tell you that Brexit will create a land of milk and honey. The truth is more down to earth and it’s in our hands: Brexit is what we make of it together.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/feb/26/brexit-tories-lash-out-at-corbyn-as-he-backs-staying-in-customs-union-with-eu-politics-live?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Not sure how that's going to go down in Remainia, where people, we're told, are paying attention....
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited February 2018
    The Tories have a Brexit policy ?

    Yes to get there eventually through near permanent transition (implementation ) period.The grass never gets cut just grows longer.
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    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Off topic, but likely to be the main topic for the rest of the week - light snow falling in Keighley...

    We've got 2-3 inches overnight. Going to be a fun journey to Edinburgh this morning.
    Looks like just an odd flake in this part of Essex. Our car, which lives outside, doesn’t appear to be frozen, either.
    Nor is mine. Which is annoying as I was fearful of a very hard frost and spent quite a lot of time moving my geraniums from the sunroom into the house itself so there was no dnager of them being affected.
    Plenty on the Lincolnshire Edge this morning. Bloody cold as well.
    The Lincolnshire Edge sounds slightly more remote than the Shoulder of Orion.

    And colder.
    Just turn left at the Tannhauser Gate and then straight on 'til morning. :)
    All these moments will be lost, like posts in the PB archive... :D
    LOL. Brilliant. :)
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,143
    Membership of the EU prevents the Labour manifesto's public ownership ambition.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,709

    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
    ... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes

    shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?

    Is it stupidity or mendacity that keeps them using the term 'access'?

    Anyone can sell to European markets. That's not access to the Single Market, it's application of the CET. If you want SM membership, it's the four freedoms - an EU red line that they've reiterated a hojillion times.
    Single market “membership” with no “Freedom of Movement” would be the mother of all cherries.....which is why the British government didn’t waste any time arguing for it.....but Labour will?
    I think a Norway minus is possible. We would get agreed limited controls over migration for a trade off elsewhere, possibly on services access. If you don't ask you don't get, but I think the EU might agree it as their biggest interest is in standard regulation. The money is also nice. Whether we think the trade off is worth it, given we're gong to be hooked up to EU system on their terms anyway, is another matter.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    How do you know what labour leave voters wanted or prioritised? Most of them will be happy with a Labour government and more money for the NHS. Also, even if he loses a chunk of Leave voters, he'll still win the seats they were in.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,841
    Morning all :)

    As the time draws closer for both Conservative and Labour parties to make some firm decisions on the A50 process, we also begin to see where, for individuals, the undying and unwavering support for Party can triumph over the unwavering and undying support of principle.

    The "it doesn't matter what they say, I'll always support x or y" principle if you like.

    It forces us to ask the question "why did we vote to LEAVE ?". Simply hating Brussels, the EU, the French, the Germans, wanting bananas and sausages to be what we know them to be etc, isn't a definition of the future - it's at best a romanticised evocation of the past.

    "Taking Back Control" presumes a lot of things - we've already given away much of our sovereignty in defence and foreign policy through NATO and independent freedom of action in global economic affairs disappeared on the Marne. Even outside the political structure of the EU we will be in a cat's cradle of global institutional partnerships and frameworks.

    So it's down to essentially two visions of "LEAVE" - vision one removes us from the political structure of the EU but maintains the economic framework of the EU via the CU and says to the world "we are still connected to Europe". Vision two tries to remove the economic relationship with the EU and says effectively Britain is available, ready and willing to do business with and trade with anyone. That's a kind of "Chinese" model as we may have to trade with anyone and everyone whatever their internal politics and morality.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859

    May or Corbyn:

    The European Union is not the root of all our problems and leaving it will not solve all our problems. Likewise, the EU is not the source of all enlightenment and leaving it does not inevitably spell doom for our country.

    There will be some who will tell you that Brexit is a disaster for this country and some who will tell you that Brexit will create a land of milk and honey. The truth is more down to earth and it’s in our hands: Brexit is what we make of it together.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/feb/26/brexit-tories-lash-out-at-corbyn-as-he-backs-staying-in-customs-union-with-eu-politics-live?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Not sure how that's going to go down in Remainia, where people, we're told, are paying attention....

    That sounds fair, Brexit will be what we make of it.

    Sadly, there’s a large group of influential people who seem determined to make it a disaster.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,910
    Yorkcity said:

    The Tories have a Brexit policy ?

    Yes to get there eventually through near permanent transition (implementation ) period.The grass never gets cut just grows longer.

    A deep and special partnership.

    Finbarr Tories
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    geoffw said:

    Membership of the EU prevents the Labour manifesto's public ownership ambition.
    Yep and free movement does nothing for poor areas in our country ,only bring more poor people.
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    JonathanD said:

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    How do you know what labour leave voters wanted or prioritised? Most of them will be happy with a Labour government and more money for the NHS. Also, even if he loses a chunk of Leave voters, he'll still win the seats they were in.
    Rather complacent but you are entitled to your opinion
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,985
    Corbyn's Labour now has the more business friendly policy. It's opposite day!
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,709
    edited February 2018

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    No. But Labour Leave voters largely think Brexit is a Tory project even if they want to leave the EU. They are not going to switch their votes. Maybe to UKIP, if it gets its act together, but not to the Conservatives.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,910
    Corbyn might just have threaded the needle on Brexit policy.
    The main area for Labour leave areas is scrapping the free movement of people (Thats been ceeded by May for the transition period anyhow !).
    The customs arrangement with the EU is neither here nor there to most people, though it is massively important to Tory leavers.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    JonathanD said:

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    How do you know what labour leave voters wanted or prioritised? Most of them will be happy with a Labour government and more money for the NHS. Also, even if he loses a chunk of Leave voters, he'll still win the seats they were in.
    Provided Corbyn sticks to ending free movement and leaving the single market most Labour Leave voters will not care about staying in the Customs Union, agreeing new trade deals with the rest of the world was more of an issue for posh Tory Leavers
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    The locals might yet be impacted by the narrative of Labour simply playing politics with Brexit for party political gain, rather than what is about negotiating the best deal with Brussels.

    For example, what Corbyn says today is meaningless, unless he says how much he is prepared to pay Brussels for his/a/the Customs Union. And if he is pledging it is going to be "full tariff-free", as the BBC reports, then that looks like no change in our relationship with the EU. How well is that going to play with those Labour Brexit voters in Leeds?

    Tory straw-clutching.
    We'll see. Don't be surprised if the papers run with "Corbyn bins Brexit" or "Corbyn caves to Brussels" though.
    Your 'Jezza the terrorists' pal','Labour, party of antisemites' and 'Jezza, Ace of Spies' straws are more clutchable, and they're a bit rubbish.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    JonathanD said:

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    How do you know what labour leave voters wanted or prioritised? Most of them will be happy with a Labour government and more money for the NHS. Also, even if he loses a chunk of Leave voters, he'll still win the seats they were in.
    Indeed. Maybe they voted Leave to get £350m per week for the NHS. If he promises increased NHS funding then that group will not care about In or Out and throwing money at the NHS is what Labour always promises to do anyway (and what supporters expect) so it is an easy sell.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    edited February 2018
    Does anyone have a link to a non-paywalled English article that explains how Selmayr ended up appointed to his new job as head of the EU bureaucracy?
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited February 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Sadly, there’s a large group of influential people who seem determined to make [Brexit] a disaster.

    That would be the current govt....

    Where is my hat & coat? :D
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    Well, she started that tweet with a flat out porky.
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    JonathanD said:

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    How do you know what labour leave voters wanted or prioritised? Most of them will be happy with a Labour government and more money for the NHS. Also, even if he loses a chunk of Leave voters, he'll still win the seats they were in.
    Indeed. Maybe they voted Leave to get £350m per week for the NHS. If he promises increased NHS funding then that group will not care about In or Out and throwing money at the NHS is what Labour always promises to do anyway (and what supporters expect) so it is an easy sell.
    https://twitter.com/markantro/status/967888747114258432
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
    ... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes

    shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?

    Just suppose that Labour is conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe and publishes a draft agreement that avoids a hard border in Ireland, protects trade and jobs,and receives encouraging noises from Barnier.

    Obviously Brexiteers and hardcore Tories will scream blue murder. Traitors. But how will the average voter react? Would see a government in waiting doing a more competent job than the actual government, or would they also see it as traitorous? I genuinely don't know.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,910
    edited February 2018
    One question - will the EU allow us to be outside the SM but inside THE CU ?
    The only non UK-related country with this current arrangement is Monaco.
    Also what does it mean in practice..
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256


    The Lincolnshire Edge sounds slightly more remote than the Shoulder of Orion.

    And colder.

    Just turn left at the Tannhauser Gate and then straight on 'til morning. :)
    All these moments will be lost, like posts in the PB archive... :D
    LOL. Brilliant. :)
    Ty :) It is early yet. I am still totally wired from the morning caffeine boost.
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    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone have a link to a non-paywalled English article that explains how Selmayr ended up appointed to his new job as head of the EU bureaucracy?
    Jean Qautremer for Liberation (4 articles free) seems to be making a lot of the running - and Google Translate can do the rest
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Pulpstar said:

    One question - will the EU allow us to be outside the SM but inside THE CU ?
    The only non UK-related country with this current arrangement is Monaco.
    Also what does it mean in practice..

    Turkey also largely has that arrangement, albeit in a Customs Union rather than the Customs Union and not yet covered by EU FTAs
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited February 2018

    JonathanD said:

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    How do you know what labour leave voters wanted or prioritised? Most of them will be happy with a Labour government and more money for the NHS. Also, even if he loses a chunk of Leave voters, he'll still win the seats they were in.
    Indeed. Maybe they voted Leave to get £350m per week for the NHS. If he promises increased NHS funding then that group will not care about In or Out and throwing money at the NHS is what Labour always promises to do anyway (and what supporters expect) so it is an easy sell.
    https://twitter.com/markantro/status/967888747114258432
    Yes indeed, but most people look no further than the cash and "24 hours to save the NHS" is still doing the rounds after 50 years. Throw cash at the NHS and you are halfway to electoral success in this country
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Pulpstar said:

    One question - will the EU allow us to be outside the SM but inside THE CU ?
    The only non UK-related country with this current arrangement is Monaco.
    Also what does it mean in practice..

    Celibacy !
    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/968055002412535808
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859

    Sandpit said:

    Sadly, there’s a large group of influential people who seem determined to make [Brexit] a disaster.

    That would be the current govt....

    Where is my hat & coat? :D
    If you say so! ;)

    I think JRM and Dan Hannan are getting a little fed up with being the only positive voices in the media on Brexit. If people don’t want it to be a success then that’s never going to happen.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    The danger for Corbyn is that he angers the remainers in his party by not committing to the single market and angers leavers as staying in a customs union negates so many trade options and is not going to provide a clean break

    Barry Gardiner all over the place on the media this morning and Corbyns decision has opened more questions than answers for him.

    Also by speaking today it provides 5 days for TM to fine tune her big speech on friday

    Corbyns decision has probably caused labour damage in leave areas

    How do you mean fine tune ? I thought the policy had been decided .Mays position is to leave the single market and the customs union.At a time to be decided after a transition implementation period.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,841
    HYUFD said:


    The Tories won all 3 Barnet seats last June and would hold the Council by about 1 seat if wards there voted the same as at the general election. I actually think Wandsworth may be a better bet for
    Labour than Barnet as Labour won 2/3 of the seats there at the general election.

    Sutton both voted Leave and has a Tory MP with a big majority

    But these are "local" elections. Trying to predict through the prism of 23/6/16 and the last GE might not be helpful.

    Sutton also has a Lib Dem MP for an area which voted LEAVE.

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One question - will the EU allow us to be outside the SM but inside THE CU ?
    The only non UK-related country with this current arrangement is Monaco.
    Also what does it mean in practice..

    Celibacy !
    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/968055002412535808
    And what the hell does Mr Knox know about celibacy?
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    Yorkcity said:

    The danger for Corbyn is that he angers the remainers in his party by not committing to the single market and angers leavers as staying in a customs union negates so many trade options and is not going to provide a clean break

    Barry Gardiner all over the place on the media this morning and Corbyns decision has opened more questions than answers for him.

    Also by speaking today it provides 5 days for TM to fine tune her big speech on friday

    Corbyns decision has probably caused labour damage in leave areas

    How do you mean fine tune ? I thought the policy had been decided .Mays position is to leave the single market and the customs union.At a time to be decided after a transition implementation period.
    Let's see what she says on friday - it may well be more nuanced
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn might just have threaded the needle on Brexit policy.
    The main area for Labour leave areas is scrapping the free movement of people (Thats been ceeded by May for the transition period anyhow !).
    The customs arrangement with the EU is neither here nor there to most people, though it is massively important to Tory leavers.

    Yes - depending on whether what he is suggesting is possible - it seems to be a position which holds his coalition together more or less.

    I wonder if his team will be able to get business leaders to publicly line up in support of his new customs union policy?
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    HYUFD said:

    JonathanD said:

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    How do you know what labour leave voters wanted or prioritised? Most of them will be happy with a Labour government and more money for the NHS. Also, even if he loses a chunk of Leave voters, he'll still win the seats they were in.
    Provided Corbyn sticks to ending free movement and leaving the single market most Labour Leave voters will not care about staying in the Customs Union, agreeing new trade deals with the rest of the world was more of an issue for posh Tory Leavers
    Yes, I agree. Sunderland did not vote Leave because they wanted to eat chlorinated US chicken or have cheap Chinese steel undercut UK manufacturers.

    Corbyn appears to have embraced pragmatism at a late stage in life but in a sufficiently enthusiastic manner that should see him into No. 10 at the next election.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Well, she started that tweet with a flat out porky.
    No she did not. Taking her words literally, she did not wish to be rude, but felt it was necessary to indicate the strength of her opinion.
  • Options
    Mr. Calum, that's precisely the aim of some. They want to 'negotiate' a terrible deal then try and persuade the electorate to remain in the EU. It's a reprehensible approach to democracy.
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    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: ... so Lab also believes now has solution to Phase 1 Agreement language on Ireland - [crystallises on Wednesday with draft legal text]
    ... also that it can maintain full single market access while getting FoM changes

    shadow Cabinet conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe?

    Just suppose that Labour is conducting a shadow negotiation with Europe and publishes a draft agreement that avoids a hard border in Ireland, protects trade and jobs,and receives encouraging noises from Barnier.

    Obviously Brexiteers and hardcore Tories will scream blue murder. Traitors. But how will the average voter react? Would see a government in waiting doing a more competent job than the actual government, or would they also see it as traitorous? I genuinely don't know.

    Neither do I - it could go either way
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,709
    edited February 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    One question - will the EU allow us to be outside the SM but inside THE CU ?
    The only non UK-related country with this current arrangement is Monaco.
    Also what does it mean in practice..

    It's a good question. Strictly speaking a customs union simply covers a common schedule of tariffs. The EU may require other commonality before agreeing. This document, section 8, explains the difference between a customs union and an FTA (or Single Market). The first concerns trade across the external borders; the second trade across the internal borders. Having a common external policy reduces internal checks as you no longer need to distinguish external and domestic goods and their content as they cross the internal border.

    https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/regatt_e.htm
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    edited February 2018
    HYUFD said:

    JonathanD said:

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    How do you know what labour leave voters wanted or prioritised? Most of them will be happy with a Labour government and more money for the NHS. Also, even if he loses a chunk of Leave voters, he'll still win the seats they were in.
    Provided Corbyn sticks to ending free movement and leaving the single market most Labour Leave voters will not care about staying in the Customs Union, agreeing new trade deals with the rest of the world was more of an issue for posh Tory Leavers
    If I were Corbyn, I would today categorically rule out a UK/USA free trade deal in order to protect our jobs, protect our food standards and our sovereignty (as the ISDS provisions in a USA trade deal are a lot more onerous than the ECJ). I suspect it would be a popular move. It also undermines the argument for not being in a Customs Union (ability to negotiate our own FTAs).
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    JonathanD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JonathanD said:

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    How do you know what labour leave voters wanted or prioritised? Most of them will be happy with a Labour government and more money for the NHS. Also, even if he loses a chunk of Leave voters, he'll still win the seats they were in.
    Provided Corbyn sticks to ending free movement and leaving the single market most Labour Leave voters will not care about staying in the Customs Union, agreeing new trade deals with the rest of the world was more of an issue for posh Tory Leavers
    Yes, I agree. Sunderland did not vote Leave because they wanted to eat chlorinated US chicken or have cheap Chinese steel undercut UK manufacturers.

    Corbyn appears to have embraced pragmatism at a late stage in life but in a sufficiently enthusiastic manner that should see him into No. 10 at the next election.
    Neither to be fair did most lower middle class and skilled working class Tory areas either, it was more the likes of Hannan and Vote Leave and the wealthiest Eurosceptics who wanted to leave the Customs Union.

    Corbyn may get to No 10 by holding onto his working class Leave voters and giving some red meat to Remain voters by committing to stay in the Customs Union and still ending free movement and leaving the single market and doing a confidence and supply deal with the SNP on current trends
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    Pulpstar said:

    One question - will the EU allow us to be outside the SM but inside THE CU ?
    The only non UK-related country with this current arrangement is Monaco.
    Also what does it mean in practice..

    There are many questions that labour will need to have a convincing answer. Cake and eat it does not work
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sadly, there’s a large group of influential people who seem determined to make [Brexit] a disaster.

    That would be the current govt....

    Where is my hat & coat? :D
    If you say so! ;)

    I think JRM and Dan Hannan are getting a little fed up with being the only positive voices in the media on Brexit. If people don’t want it to be a success then that’s never going to happen.
    Current govt policy, or rather the total lack of it, does not look to be building a path to a successful Brexit. It is not even going to be a successful rescue of the Conservative Party which appears to have been the whole idea in the first place.

    Brexit has always been destined to be a shambles. It divided the country which is not a good position for any policy to start from.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    geoffw said:

    Membership of the EU prevents the Labour manifesto's public ownership ambition.
    Not really. France has a nationalised electricity supplier called EDF. Ireland never privatised the ESB. Water in most of Europe is publicly-owned, usually by the local authority.

    The EU rules out import controls or foreign exchange controls which the Labour left wanted in 1975.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    The Tories won all 3 Barnet seats last June and would hold the Council by about 1 seat if wards there voted the same as at the general election. I actually think Wandsworth may be a better bet for
    Labour than Barnet as Labour won 2/3 of the seats there at the general election.

    Sutton both voted Leave and has a Tory MP with a big majority

    But these are "local" elections. Trying to predict through the prism of 23/6/16 and the last GE might not be helpful.

    Sutton also has a Lib Dem MP for an area which voted LEAVE.

    At the last general election the Tories won Sutton and Cheam by 12 000 votes but the LDs only won Carshalton and Wallington by 1300 votes
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    JonathanD said:

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    How do you know what labour leave voters wanted or prioritised? Most of them will be happy with a Labour government and more money for the NHS. Also, even if he loses a chunk of Leave voters, he'll still win the seats they were in.
    Provided Corbyn sticks to ending free movement and leaving the single market most Labour Leave voters will not care about staying in the Customs Union, agreeing new trade deals with the rest of the world was more of an issue for posh Tory Leavers
    If I were Corbyn, I would today categorically rule out a UK/USA free trade deal in order to protect our jobs, protect our food standards and our sovereignty (as the ISDS provisions in a USA trade deal are a lot more onerous than the ECJ). I suspect it would be a popular move. It also undermines the argument for not being in a Customs Union (ability to negotiate our own FTAs).
    For Labour voters yes
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited February 2018
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One question - will the EU allow us to be outside the SM but inside THE CU ?
    The only non UK-related country with this current arrangement is Monaco.
    Also what does it mean in practice..

    It's a good question. Strictly speaking a customs union simply covers a common schedule of tariffs. The EU may require other commonality before agreeing. This document, section 8, explains the difference between a customs union and an FTA (or Single Market)

    https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/regatt_e.htm
    I'd assume the EU priorities will be to have any CU deal avoid the UK undercutting EU producers by regulatory dumping (so we will be forced to sign up to all the health, safety and labour regs without any opt outs - maybe even taxation arrangements) and to have the UK pay for a hefty chunk of the cost of running the CU.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,985
    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone have a link to a non-paywalled English article that explains how Selmayr ended up appointed to his new job as head of the EU bureaucracy?
    It's not like he was driving a taxi before he got the gig. He is actually qualified to do it. He's no friend to the UK but that's neither here not there now.
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    Pulpstar said:

    One question - will the EU allow us to be outside the SM but inside THE CU ?
    The only non UK-related country with this current arrangement is Monaco.
    Also what does it mean in practice..

    There are many questions that labour will need to have a convincing answer. Cake and eat it does not work

    Yes, it does. It’s how Leave won in 2016.

  • Options

    Well, she started that tweet with a flat out porky.
    No she did not. Taking her words literally, she did not wish to be rude, but felt it was necessary to indicate the strength of her opinion.
    Amazing the number of times she is forced to indicate the strength of her opinion, with deep reluctance & regret on every occasion I'm sure.

    As it happens I agree with La Soubry on Gardiner's guff talking, but as a matter of personal taste I prefer mild rudeness not to be preceded with a lace doily of insincerity.
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    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    JonathanD said:

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    How do you know what labour leave voters wanted or prioritised? Most of them will be happy with a Labour government and more money for the NHS. Also, even if he loses a chunk of Leave voters, he'll still win the seats they were in.
    Provided Corbyn sticks to ending free movement and leaving the single market most Labour Leave voters will not care about staying in the Customs Union, agreeing new trade deals with the rest of the world was more of an issue for posh Tory Leavers
    If I were Corbyn, I would today categorically rule out a UK/USA free trade deal in order to protect our jobs, protect our food standards and our sovereignty (as the ISDS provisions in a USA trade deal are a lot more onerous than the ECJ). I suspect it would be a popular move. It also undermines the argument for not being in a Customs Union (ability to negotiate our own FTAs).

    There’ll be no FTA with the US unless the Irish border question is resolved with Ireland’s agreement. There is no way to get a deal through Congress if it is opposed by the Irish American lobby.

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    edited February 2018

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sadly, there’s a large group of influential people who seem determined to make [Brexit] a disaster.

    That would be the current govt....

    Where is my hat & coat? :D
    If you say so! ;)

    I think JRM and Dan Hannan are getting a little fed up with being the only positive voices in the media on Brexit. If people don’t want it to be a success then that’s never going to happen.
    Current govt policy, or rather the total lack of it, does not look to be building a path to a successful Brexit. It is not even going to be a successful rescue of the Conservative Party which appears to have been the whole idea in the first place.

    Brexit has always been destined to be a shambles. It divided the country which is not a good position for any policy to start from.
    If all those brains that are currently trying to frustrate Brexit, instead spent their efforts on trying to make it a success, then we would most likely have a success.

    Case in point, Tony Blair. No matter that he’s hated in the UK, he is well known around the world and could grease the wheels of global trade for us. Instead, he’s expending his efforts to overturn something that the largest vote in British history has instructed the government to do.
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sadly, there’s a large group of influential people who seem determined to make [Brexit] a disaster.

    That would be the current govt....

    Where is my hat & coat? :D
    If you say so! ;)

    I think JRM and Dan Hannan are getting a little fed up with being the only positive voices in the media on Brexit. If people don’t want it to be a success then that’s never going to happen.
    Current govt policy, or rather the total lack of it, does not look to be building a path to a successful Brexit. It is not even going to be a successful rescue of the Conservative Party which appears to have been the whole idea in the first place.

    Brexit has always been destined to be a shambles. It divided the country which is not a good position for any policy to start from.
    One might say the same thing about any election. Thatcher and Blair both divided the country and yet achieved significant changes.
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    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sadly, there’s a large group of influential people who seem determined to make [Brexit] a disaster.

    That would be the current govt....

    Where is my hat & coat? :D
    If you say so! ;)

    I think JRM and Dan Hannan are getting a little fed up with being the only positive voices in the media on Brexit. If people don’t want it to be a success then that’s never going to happen.
    Current govt policy, or rather the total lack of it, does not look to be building a path to a successful Brexit. It is not even going to be a successful rescue of the Conservative Party which appears to have been the whole idea in the first place.

    Brexit has always been destined to be a shambles. It divided the country which is not a good position for any policy to start from.
    Brexit didn't divide the country, our EU membership did. The country was already divided - you just notice it more now that you're on the wrong side of the divide.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    JonathanD said:

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's tactical advantage aligns with what most of his MPs and members want.anyway.

    But not his leave voters
    How do you know what labour leave voters wanted or prioritised? Most of them will be happy with a Labour government and more money for the NHS. Also, even if he loses a chunk of Leave voters, he'll still win the seats they were in.
    Provided Corbyn sticks to ending free movement and leaving the single market most Labour Leave voters will not care about staying in the Customs Union, agreeing new trade deals with the rest of the world was more of an issue for posh Tory Leavers
    If I were Corbyn, I would today categorically rule out a UK/USA free trade deal in order to protect our jobs, protect our food standards and our sovereignty (as the ISDS provisions in a USA trade deal are a lot more onerous than the ECJ). I suspect it would be a popular move. It also undermines the argument for not being in a Customs Union (ability to negotiate our own FTAs).
    For Labour voters yes
    A lot of Tory voters are concerned about maintaining food standards (see latest on US milk and infected udders) and others are concerned about ISDS and loss of sovereignty (see Zac Goldsmith and his resistance to TTIP and ISDS). Farmers are naturally concerned too.

    https://www.fginsight.com/news/news/us-uk-trade-deal-to-leave-nhs-facing-high-food-poisoning-costs--53949

    It's not just Labour voters who are concerned about a US FTA. Gove is too.

    https://www.fginsight.com/news/news/chlorinated-chicken-would-stop-us-trade-deal-in-its-tracks-says-gove-24962
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    Mr. Calum, that's precisely the aim of some. They want to 'negotiate' a terrible deal then try and persuade the electorate to remain in the EU. It's a reprehensible approach to democracy.

    So pisspoor Brexit planning is the fault of Remainers?

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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone have a link to a non-paywalled English article that explains how Selmayr ended up appointed to his new job as head of the EU bureaucracy?
    It's not like he was driving a taxi before he got the gig. He is actually qualified to do it. He's no friend to the UK but that's neither here not there now.
    I think the objections were that he was only permitted to apply for the deputy role due to his grade, moments after he was appointed, shenanigans ensued. I don't really care one why or another, it's not as if the UK has many friends in the Commission, one more anti- is, as you say, water off a ducks back.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,985
    Sandpit said:



    Case in point, Tony Blair. No matter that he’s hated in the UK, he is well known around the world and could grease the wheels of global trade for us. Instead, he’s expending his efforts to overturn something that the largest vote in British history has instructed the government to do.

    I never realised the success of Brexit depended on "Remoaners" pretending they don't think it will be shit.

  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited February 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sadly, there’s a large group of influential people who seem determined to make [Brexit] a disaster.

    That would be the current govt....

    Where is my hat & coat? :D
    If you say so! ;)

    I think JRM and Dan Hannan are getting a little fed up with being the only positive voices in the media on Brexit. If people don’t want it to be a success then that’s never going to happen.
    Current govt policy, or rather the total lack of it, does not look to be building a path to a successful Brexit. It is not even going to be a successful rescue of the Conservative Party which appears to have been the whole idea in the first place.

    Brexit has always been destined to be a shambles. It divided the country which is not a good position for any policy to start from.
    If all those brains that are currently trying to frustrate Brexit, instead spent their efforts on trying to make it a success, then we would most likely have a success.

    Case in point, Tony Blair. No matter that he’s hated in the UK, he is well known around the world and could grease the wheels of global trade for us. Instead, he’s expending his efforts to overturn something that the largest vote in British history has instructed the government to do.
    Surely greasing the wheels of global trade is Liam Fox's job? If he isn't up to it, sack him and get someone who can. Its not Remains fault that Leave couldn't organise an intoxication in a brewery.
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    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone have a link to a non-paywalled English article that explains how Selmayr ended up appointed to his new job as head of the EU bureaucracy?
    It's not like he was driving a taxi before he got the gig. He is actually qualified to do it.
    Not an opinion shared by the French Brussels correspondent of Liberation......

    http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2018/02/25/martin-selmayr-et-les-comploteurs-de-la-commission_1632200
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,280
    Probably. First, no one will fully worry about the extent of the policy shift, apart from some flat-earth democracy-denying PB Brexiters; second, it's good politics.

    You'd do the same in their position, wouldn't you?
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    Dr. Foxy, Grieve's 'meaningful vote' and Soubry's desire for membership of the customs union are not aspects of Leave in any way.
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    Antoinette Sandbach talking a lot of sense to Adam Boulton on Sky in a quiet confident persuasive way
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,280

    Yorkcity said:

    The danger for Corbyn is that he angers the remainers in his party by not committing to the single market and angers leavers as staying in a customs union negates so many trade options and is not going to provide a clean break

    Barry Gardiner all over the place on the media this morning and Corbyns decision has opened more questions than answers for him.

    Also by speaking today it provides 5 days for TM to fine tune her big speech on friday

    Corbyns decision has probably caused labour damage in leave areas

    How do you mean fine tune ? I thought the policy had been decided .Mays position is to leave the single market and the customs union.At a time to be decided after a transition implementation period.
    Let's see what she says on friday - it may well be more nuanced
    "I have decided we will pursue the little bit pregnant strategy for Brexit."
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,603
    edited February 2018
    Wolfgang Münchau

    The EU will demand a degree of political convergence as a price for a customs union. It would, I presume, not require the UK to accept freedom of movement. This alone may make the customs union attractive from the UK’s perspective. But it would be a mistake to think of a customs union agreement as non-intrusive.

    The EU could, for example, insist on a relatively open immigration regime in the UK, something that might resemble free movement in practice. There is no economic reason to link the free movement of traded goods and of people. But politics could intrude. A customs union would have to be ratified by all 27 member states, including states that have little to gain from the smooth flow of goods, but a lot to lose from UK immigration controls. The EU as a whole would object to any immigration regime that directly or indirectly discriminates against some member states.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/feb/26/brexit-tories-lash-out-at-corbyn-as-he-backs-staying-in-customs-union-with-eu-politics-live?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,280

    Pulpstar said:

    One question - will the EU allow us to be outside the SM but inside THE CU ?
    The only non UK-related country with this current arrangement is Monaco.
    Also what does it mean in practice..

    There are many questions that labour will need to have a convincing answer. Cake and eat it does not work
    Cake and eat it works perfectly in opposition. It is in government where it is a lunatic strategy.
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    Foxy said:

    Mr. Calum, that's precisely the aim of some. They want to 'negotiate' a terrible deal then try and persuade the electorate to remain in the EU. It's a reprehensible approach to democracy.

    So pisspoor Brexit planning is the fault of Remainers?

    It’s the fault of deluded Leavers who were ignorant of reality.

    Lucky this man is nowhere near the levers of powers.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770127564607489
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,143

    geoffw said:

    Membership of the EU prevents the Labour manifesto's public ownership ambition.
    Not really. France has a nationalised electricity supplier called EDF. Ireland never privatised the ESB. Water in most of Europe is publicly-owned, usually by the local authority.

    The EU rules out import controls or foreign exchange controls which the Labour left wanted in 1975.
    The EU single market is incompatible with Labour’s manifesto
    Alex Gordon and J. White 9 August 2017

    "EU single market membership frustrates any ability to create coherent, integrated, nationalised industries and utilities based on democratically agreed national needs."

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/jonathan-white-alex-gordon/eu-single-market-is-incompatible-with-labour-s-manifesto

  • Options

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Calum, that's precisely the aim of some. They want to 'negotiate' a terrible deal then try and persuade the electorate to remain in the EU. It's a reprehensible approach to democracy.

    So pisspoor Brexit planning is the fault of Remainers?

    It’s the fault of deluded Leavers who were ignorant of reality.

    Lucky this man is nowhere near the levers of powers.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770127564607489
    He's not wrong. Merkel is hiding behind Barnier but she is one calling the shots. When Barnier says something against German interests it quickly gets rowed back upon.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    edited February 2018

    Google’s English.

    The coup d'état of tridi 3 ventose (Wednesday, February 21), which allowed the unknown Eurocrat Martin Selmayr to seize power in the Commission - by cumulating de facto the functions of Secretary General and head of President's Office - does not stop causing waves. As the dust settles, it appears that the internal rules have been abused or deliberately violated by Selmayr, with the complicity of a small group of plotters and, of course, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, in person.

    Indeed, the current chief of staff of the President of the Commission could not be directly appointed Secretary-General, "the" most important position of the European executive, because being only "director", he had not the required grade. He held this position only one day, in 2014, the time to validate it and in reality, Selmayr never worked in the services: he was first spokesperson (2004-2009) then chief Cabinet (2009-2014) of Commissioner Viviane Reding before holding the same position at Juncker.

    World record
    It should be noted that there are several supervisory functions within the Commission. In ascending order: Head of Unit, Director, Senior Advisor, Deputy Director General (DGA) and finally Director General (DG). However, to be appointed to these positions, the procedure is extremely cumbersome: public bidding, oral before a pre-selection panel, classification by an Advisory Committee on Appointments (NCC), examination of competencies by an external consultant (Mercuri Urval), return to the NCC, interview with the commissioner who recruits and finally appointment by the College of 28 commissioners. If tradition dictates that the President of the Commission has wide latitude to appoint the Secretary General, he can only draw directly from the pool of DGAs and DGs. Suffice to say that the director Selmayr had, before being named general secretary (equivalent of a DG), to go through the stage assistant general secretary.

    Admittedly, Selmayr did apply for this post at the end of January, when it became vacant. But it takes more than fifteen days to complete the recruitment process. However, concerning him, it did not take long: on February 21, Selmayr was first appointed deputy secretary general. Then in the wake, the current Secretary General, the Dutchman Alexander Italianer, resigned, before being replaced by ... Martin Selmayr. Two promotions in less than a minute. Never seen, a real world record. All to the amazement of the European Commissioners who were not put in the secret, including Günther Oettinger, commissioner yet in charge of human resources. But with a dose of courage approaching the zero level, no one has surrendered. Better (or worse), all this beautiful world has validated this pretty "golpe". Not bad for a Commission supposed to be the guardian of the treaties, that is to say the respect of the rules.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,280
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Membership of the EU prevents the Labour manifesto's public ownership ambition.
    Not really. France has a nationalised electricity supplier called EDF. Ireland never privatised the ESB. Water in most of Europe is publicly-owned, usually by the local authority.

    The EU rules out import controls or foreign exchange controls which the Labour left wanted in 1975.
    The EU single market is incompatible with Labour’s manifesto
    Alex Gordon and J. White 9 August 2017

    "EU single market membership frustrates any ability to create coherent, integrated, nationalised industries and utilities based on democratically agreed national needs."

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/jonathan-white-alex-gordon/eu-single-market-is-incompatible-with-labour-s-manifesto

    This will be the interesting compromise. Will Lab be prepared to shelve plans to nationalise Tescos, Goldman Sachs, your local corner shop, etc if it means they can present a coherent EU strategy to voters.

    (Edit: not your local corner shop, of course, because I believe you are an expat PB-er, aren't you?)
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    Foxy said:

    Mr. Calum, that's precisely the aim of some. They want to 'negotiate' a terrible deal then try and persuade the electorate to remain in the EU. It's a reprehensible approach to democracy.

    So pisspoor Brexit planning is the fault of Remainers?

    It’s the fault of deluded Leavers who were ignorant of reality.

    Lucky this man is nowhere near the levers of powers.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770127564607489
    He's not wrong. Merkel is hiding behind Barnier but she is one calling the shots. When Barnier says something against German interests it quickly gets rowed back upon.
    He’s wrong.

    There’s no way there’d be a UK-German trade deal.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited February 2018

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Calum, that's precisely the aim of some. They want to 'negotiate' a terrible deal then try and persuade the electorate to remain in the EU. It's a reprehensible approach to democracy.

    So pisspoor Brexit planning is the fault of Remainers?

    It’s the fault of deluded Leavers who were ignorant of reality.

    Lucky this man is nowhere near the levers of powers.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770127564607489
    He's not wrong. Merkel is hiding behind Barnier but she is one calling the shots. When Barnier says something against German interests it quickly gets rowed back upon.
    In 'Fall Out' Davis comes out pretty well, but far too prone to firing from the hip and underestimating the complexities of the task at hand. 'Take that hill' doesn't work well when the objective is 'leave that incredibly complex bloc'.

    He's more realistic now, but we've lost so much time on Tory civil wars.
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    Foxy said:

    Mr. Calum, that's precisely the aim of some. They want to 'negotiate' a terrible deal then try and persuade the electorate to remain in the EU. It's a reprehensible approach to democracy.

    So pisspoor Brexit planning is the fault of Remainers?

    It’s the fault of deluded Leavers who were ignorant of reality.

    Lucky this man is nowhere near the levers of powers.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770127564607489
    He's not wrong. Merkel is hiding behind Barnier but she is one calling the shots. When Barnier says something against German interests it quickly gets rowed back upon.
    He’s wrong.

    There’s no way there’d be a UK-German trade deal.
    Of course there will. Its official name will be along the lines of UK-EU deal but like all EU deals they will reflect what Germany wants.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    edited February 2018
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    edited February 2018
    I think you guys are overthinking it.

    The current sweet spot in politics is offering the least extreme version of Brexit. The facts about what is actually feasible aren't very important. The details of the offer aren't important at all.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,280

    I think you guys are overthinking it.

    The current sweet spot in politics is offering the least extreme version of Brexit. The facts about what is actually feasible aren't very important. The details of the offer aren't important at all.

    Yet all the big political brains on PB can't seem to grasp this simple fact.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,985

    I think you guys are overthinking it.

    The current sweet spot in politics is offering the least extreme version of Brexit. The facts about what is actually feasible aren't very important. The details of the offer aren't important at all.

    Corbyn doesn't give a fuck about Brexit one way or the other. If it takes a soft creamy, essentially pointless, Brexit to get May out of No. 10 and him into it, that's what he'll do.
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    Dura_Ace said:

    I think you guys are overthinking it.

    The current sweet spot in politics is offering the least extreme version of Brexit. The facts about what is actually feasible aren't very important. The details of the offer aren't important at all.

    Corbyn doesn't give a fuck about Brexit one way or the other. If it takes a soft creamy, essentially pointless, Brexit to get May out of No. 10 and him into it, that's what he'll do.
    I think he does because of the restrictions the EU would put on his policies
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,280

    Dura_Ace said:

    I think you guys are overthinking it.

    The current sweet spot in politics is offering the least extreme version of Brexit. The facts about what is actually feasible aren't very important. The details of the offer aren't important at all.

    Corbyn doesn't give a fuck about Brexit one way or the other. If it takes a soft creamy, essentially pointless, Brexit to get May out of No. 10 and him into it, that's what he'll do.
    I think he does because of the restrictions the EU would put on his policies
    If he isn't in power, he ain't got no policies. Even he realises this.
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