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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn speech has made TMay’s Brexit challenge even harder

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited February 26 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn speech has made TMay’s Brexit challenge even harder

The big black cloud that hangs over Mrs May and her team is the possibility that LAB MPs will be whipped to support an amendment backed by one of her Tory Rebels on Brexit.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,584
    First.
  • Eeesh.

    Getting ourwitted by Jeremy Corbyn should be a sackable offence.
  • Corbyn’s economic policies in that speech were terrifying.

    He inadvertently made the best case for staying in the single market.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,675
    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,907

    Eeesh.

    Getting ourwitted by Jeremy Corbyn should be a sackable offence.

    That's what elections are for isn't it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,325
    edited February 26
    Disgraced lawyer who hounded British soldiers with false murder and torture claims gave his house, artwork and cash to family to dodge a £7million bill

    Phil Shiner, owner of the now defunct Public Interest Lawyers (PIL), attempted to dodge a £7million bill by gifting his house, two guitars, artwork and a pile of cash.

    But the Government’s Insolvency Service said last night it had managed to recover nearly £500,000 and is now selling the former solicitor’s home.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5433925/Lawyer-hounded-British-soldiers-false-murder-claims.html
  • Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,453

    Those people who voted against TMay in 2017, in an attempt to stop Brexit, have made it more likely we will have a harder Brexit.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,325
    edited February 26

    Corbyn’s economic policies in that speech were terrifying.

    He inadvertently made the best case for staying in the single market.

    Are you not looking forward to your subsidized plant based Corbyn Cornetto (available in only one flavour and one size from your only choice, state owned ice cream shop)?

    In all seriousness, his city bashing the other week was worse, when he somehow was saying crushing the city was good for "genuine" business....I am intrigued to know where I will be able to go to get funding for any genuine future business ideas in CorbynLand.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
    How does their proposed amendment assist us?
  • Corbyn’s economic policies in that speech were terrifying.

    He inadvertently made the best case for staying in the single market.

    Are you not looking forward to your subsidized plant based Corbyn Cornetto (available in only one flavour and one size from your only choice, state owned ice cream shop)?
    I’ll be living in Canada.

    The most embarrassing thing their PM does is Bhangra dancing.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490

    Disgraced lawyer who hounded British soldiers with false murder and torture claims gave his house, artwork and cash to family to dodge a £7million bill

    Phil Shiner, owner of the now defunct Public Interest Lawyers (PIL), attempted to dodge a £7million bill by gifting his house, two guitars, artwork and a pile of cash.

    But the Government’s Insolvency Service said last night it had managed to recover nearly £500,000 and is now selling the former solicitor’s home.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5433925/Lawyer-hounded-British-soldiers-false-murder-claims.html

    What a dishonest slug he is.
  • Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
    How does their proposed amendment assist us?
    Protects trade and the economy ensuring no disruption to trade.

    It also solves the Irish Border question.
  • Corbyn’s economic policies in that speech were terrifying.

    He inadvertently made the best case for staying in the single market.

    Are you not looking forward to your subsidized plant based Corbyn Cornetto (available in only one flavour and one size from your only choice, state owned ice cream shop)?
    I’ll be living in Canada.

    The most embarrassing thing their PM does is Bhangra dancing.
    I will be joining you among the people-kind of Canadia...
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,675
    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
    How does their proposed amendment assist us?
    By stopping us from Taking Back Control of our own trade policy. Britain is too weak and feeble to be trusted with this responsibility so the EU must look after us.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 919
    Bottom line is that the Tories are making Jeremy Corbyn - Jeremy Corbyn! - look pragmatic, moderate and business-friendly. How is that even possible?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,454
    Yes, Jezza has played a blinder. It's astonishing to see him swagger about, posturing now as business's friend. What can Theresa do? Her speech this week has to be her Falklands moment - a combination of steely resolve and towering intellectual heft. She should throw down the gauntlet to both Brussels and the Moggites, focus her glinting, narrowed eyes and proclaim 'It's my way or the highway.'
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,907
    tpfkar said:

    Bottom line is that the Tories are making Jeremy Corbyn - Jeremy Corbyn! - look pragmatic, moderate and business-friendly. How is that even possible?

    Brexit is making the Conservatives mad. And the process is still continuing. We haven't even had the election campaign where business is backing Labour yet.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 919
    Essexit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
    How does their proposed amendment assist us?
    By stopping us from Taking Back Control of our own trade policy. Britain is too weak and feeble to be trusted with this responsibility so the EU must look after us.
    But this is an argument in abstract. Does it stand up to reality? If Liam Fox, 18 months in role now, could say that country X wants to make Y deal with us when we're out, then you've got a point. The only example we've had to date has been about chlorinated chicken from the USA, which many feel a worse arrangement than we'd have as part of an EU deal.

    If we don't end up leaving the customs union, Tories could send a lot of blame in Liam Fox's direction - his portfolio is all about turning the abstract opportunities into bankable and sellable benefits and I can't think of a single example to date?


  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
    How does their proposed amendment assist us?
    Protects trade and the economy ensuring no disruption to trade.

    It also solves the Irish Border question.
    I don't see that it does. It just seems to make the government's negotiations a bit harder.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490

    tpfkar said:

    Bottom line is that the Tories are making Jeremy Corbyn - Jeremy Corbyn! - look pragmatic, moderate and business-friendly. How is that even possible?

    Brexit is making the Conservatives mad. And the process is still continuing. We haven't even had the election campaign where business is backing Labour yet.
    We won't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,329
    John_M said:

    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.

    Errm don't you live in Wales ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490
    John_M said:

    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.

    I agree. One should stand one's ground.

    In practice, next to nobody emigrates on political grounds.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,099

    Eeesh.

    Getting ourwitted by Jeremy Corbyn should be a sackable offence.

    Corbyn has been in the Commons for 30 odd years, plus in local politics before that. He's more of a political animal than those who went to public school, read PPE at Cambridge and took over a safe seat to play at politics before getting a high paying job on a supporters company's board, or even as a international peacemaker... .
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,675
    tpfkar said:

    Essexit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
    How does their proposed amendment assist us?
    By stopping us from Taking Back Control of our own trade policy. Britain is too weak and feeble to be trusted with this responsibility so the EU must look after us.
    But this is an argument in abstract. Does it stand up to reality? If Liam Fox, 18 months in role now, could say that country X wants to make Y deal with us when we're out, then you've got a point. The only example we've had to date has been about chlorinated chicken from the USA, which many feel a worse arrangement than we'd have as part of an EU deal.

    If we don't end up leaving the customs union, Tories could send a lot of blame in Liam Fox's direction - his portfolio is all about turning the abstract opportunities into bankable and sellable benefits and I can't think of a single example to date?


    There's no EU deal at all with the USA and there won't be any time soon. Given that we can't actually sign trade deals while we're in the EU, Liam Fox is doing what he can.
  • John_M said:

    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.

    I thought you lived in Wales?

    Unfortunately the policies of Jeremy Corbyn and his Chancellor are designed to tax people like me and my parents until the pips squeak.

    I also own property which is generally unoccupied most nights, something else Corbyn and his team would like to seize.
  • Setting aside views on what a Corbyn government would be like, how has May managed to find herself estranged from her base? The Tory party is (was) owned and operated by big business, albeit with a shift away from actual constructive business towards head fund shysters in recent years.

    Her "We are leaving the Customs Union" position may temporarily protect her own head. But its a disaster for business, industry and the city - and she seems utterly oblivious to why. To see the likes of the CBI and IoD lining up with Labour against the Tories on a Business and Economics issue is mind blowing - they may hate Corbyn and everything else he stands for, but if he will stop the economy crashing off the cliff then they will stand with him.

    A Tory leader who puts her own survival ahead of all that. And the cretins in the Tory party still think she is fit to lead?


  • I also own property which is generally unoccupied most nights, something else Corbyn and his team would like to seize.

    Just like Justin Welby then :-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020
    tpfkar said:

    Bottom line is that the Tories are making Jeremy Corbyn - Jeremy Corbyn! - look pragmatic, moderate and business-friendly. How is that even possible?

    I don't think they are making him look any of those things. He has learned in his time in the job, particularly in the appearing pragmatic stakes, and the Tories are presenting an increasingly incompetent alternative, but it does not follow that Corbyn is therefore appearing moderate and business friendly.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,907

    Setting aside views on what a Corbyn government would be like, how has May managed to find herself estranged from her base? The Tory party is (was) owned and operated by big business, albeit with a shift away from actual constructive business towards head fund shysters in recent years.

    Her "We are leaving the Customs Union" position may temporarily protect her own head. But its a disaster for business, industry and the city - and she seems utterly oblivious to why. To see the likes of the CBI and IoD lining up with Labour against the Tories on a Business and Economics issue is mind blowing - they may hate Corbyn and everything else he stands for, but if he will stop the economy crashing off the cliff then they will stand with him.

    A Tory leader who puts her own survival ahead of all that. And the cretins in the Tory party still think she is fit to lead?

    Exactly. It can't last, so enjoy the spectacle while it does.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490

    Setting aside views on what a Corbyn government would be like, how has May managed to find herself estranged from her base? The Tory party is (was) owned and operated by big business, albeit with a shift away from actual constructive business towards head fund shysters in recent years.

    Her "We are leaving the Customs Union" position may temporarily protect her own head. But its a disaster for business, industry and the city - and she seems utterly oblivious to why. To see the likes of the CBI and IoD lining up with Labour against the Tories on a Business and Economics issue is mind blowing - they may hate Corbyn and everything else he stands for, but if he will stop the economy crashing off the cliff then they will stand with him.

    A Tory leader who puts her own survival ahead of all that. And the cretins in the Tory party still think she is fit to lead?

    Multinationals are not the base of the Conservative Party. The base is its 13 m voters, of whom the vast majority say they would still vote Conservative.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Give Labour's shift, any Brexit may well beget him as PM, it's a question of when.
  • OchEye said:

    Eeesh.

    Getting ourwitted by Jeremy Corbyn should be a sackable offence.

    Corbyn has been in the Commons for 30 odd years, plus in local politics before that. He's more of a political animal than those who went to public school, read PPE at Cambridge and took over a safe seat to play at politics before getting a high paying job on a supporters company's board, or even as a international peacemaker... .
    It's the dump that offers that PPE course.

    The finest university in the known universe offers SPS.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,329


    I also own property which is generally unoccupied most nights, something else Corbyn and his team would like to seize.

    It's in central Manchester is it not ? Why not rent it out :) ?
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
    How does their proposed amendment assist us?
    Protects trade and the economy ensuring no disruption to trade.

    It also solves the Irish Border question.
    I don't see that it does. It just seems to make the government's negotiations a bit harder.
    You Brexiteers thought leaving would be the easiest in history.

    This is reality.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020
    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    If they think it is the best option for the country then they should, even if it means Corbyn will become PM. They would need to ask themselves if the cost of the latter was worth the cost of the former, and if they are prepared for the personal consequences to themselves.
  • Pulpstar said:


    I also own property which is generally unoccupied most nights, something else Corbyn and his team would like to seize.

    It's in central Manchester is it not ? Why not rent it out :) ?
    I did that too for a while.

    But Corbyn doesn't like landlords either.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
    How does their proposed amendment assist us?
    Protects trade and the economy ensuring no disruption to trade.

    It also solves the Irish Border question.
    I don't see that it does. It just seems to make the government's negotiations a bit harder.
    You Brexiteers thought leaving would be the easiest in history.

    This is reality.
    I always thought negotiations would be hard, but apparently that isn't the case as negotiation consists of the EU stating a position and then us being told it is silly to question that. Simples.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
    How does their proposed amendment assist us?
    Protects trade and the economy ensuring no disruption to trade.

    It also solves the Irish Border question.
    I don't see that it does. It just seems to make the government's negotiations a bit harder.
    You Brexiteers thought leaving would be the easiest in history.

    This is reality.
    I've always assumed that untangling ourselves from the EU would be complicated, just as joining it was complicated. I still think it's worth doing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,325
    edited February 26
    Where the tories are failing is not corbyn looking business friendly...Quite the opposite...They are letting the narrative that the city, the free press, the utility companies all must he crushed as capitalism has failed and only the state can do this stuff properly.

    Osborne was extremely effective at killing the two eds much more modest and centrist ideas revolving around putting the thumb on the scale a bit.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311
    edited February 26
    If we assume that there are enough Tory rebels (and not too many Labour rebels) for the 'stay in a customs union' amendment to pass, then what happens next is entirely unclear. Clearly it would be (yet another) massive blow to the political credibility of the Prime Minister and therefore the government, but as Mike points out in the header, that doesn't directly lead to the government falling, although Labour are obviously hoping that it would.

    So I think there are three possible scenarios, maybe four:

    1) The government might just scrape through the vote with only a few Con rebels and/or with help from a handful of Labour Brexiteers, In that case, I suppose things carry on much as before, except that Corbyn would be seeking to use the vote to try to enhance support for Labour amongst those opposed to Brexit or wanting the softest possible Brexit.

    1a) A possible variant of the first scenario would be some kind of government fudge whereby they either pretend that the amendment is compatible with their existing policies, or seek to amend it slightly to make it so. Although that might seem a bit far-fetched, Corbyn's speech showed that the new Labour Brexit-policy-of-the-day is so vague that without too much reference to Alice in Wonderland, the government could try to redefine terms and carry on as before. The Institute of Directors has suggested a partial customs union which might be a way out of the mess.

    2) The amendment passes, but the government limps on, having taken it seriously. The issue then would be that the negotiating position would be completely shot to pieces; even more than she is now, the PM would be stuck between the hardline no-surrender Brexiteers, and a Commons majority who had just voted for an impossible combination of staying in 'a' customs union but not being subject to EU rules. The big problem is that the EU shows no sign whatsoever of wanting to play ball on Labour's variant of the Boris cake-and-eat-it idea. So what happens when they tell us to get stuffed?

    3) The amendment passes, chaos ensues, Corbyn ends up in No 10 either before or after an election. (I think we can rule out the possibility of the Conservatives remaining in government after an election called in such circumstances). Lord only knows what happens then to the Brexit negotiations in such circumstances, that would be Labour's problem. Good luck to them, they'd certainly need it; most probably they'd be more split than the Tories are on what to do next, given the large number of Labour MPs who want to cancel Brexit altogether or dilute it to BINO.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,547
    edited February 26
    I’m still unconvinced there is “clear blue water” between May and Corbyn. Who can actually define the difference between a customs union and a customs arrangement?

    May seems to be doubling down, though.

    So Corbyn is, exactly as predicted, maintaining a pro-Brexit stance while offering a concession to desperate Remainers. Enough indeed to get the CBI and IoD on board.

    Note too that all the attack lines used by the Tories are already invalidated because Brexit policy itself is so incoherent.

    Corbyn doesn’t need to do anything else this news cycle - he’s already won! Chapeau.
  • I think we're inexplicably heading for a referendum on the deal.

    1) Leave with no deal onto WTO Terms

    2) Accept the deal and Leave

    3) Reject the deal and Remain

    Conducted under the alternative vote system,

    This might be the only way to heal the nation.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    It has been an educational day on the Brexit front.

    A couple of the more fervent Brexiteers have a dawning realisation that the Brexit we are going to end up with is a bit shit.

    Brexit where we lose most of our trade is a bit shit.

    Brexit where Corbyn becomes PM is a bit shit.

    Brexit where we have less control is a bit shit.

    As some of us have been saying, since before the vote, there is NO version of Brexit that is not a bit shit.

    Once the true believers realise that, then the real fun starts :smile:
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,154
    edited February 26

    John_M said:

    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.

    I thought you lived in Wales?

    Unfortunately the policies of Jeremy Corbyn and his Chancellor are designed to tax people like me and my parents until the pips squeak.

    I also own property which is generally unoccupied most nights, something else Corbyn and his team would like to seize.
    Property is undertaxed compared to income and other investments.
    Jezza is right to be considering a land value tax.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020

    If we assume that there are enough Tory rebels (and not too many Labour rebels) for the 'stay in a customs union' amendment to pass, then what happens next is entirely unclear. Clearly it would (yet another) massive blow to the political credibility of the Prime Minister and therefore the government, but as Mike points out in the header, that doesn't directly lead to the government falling, although Labour are obviously hoping that it would.

    So I think there are three possible scenarios, maybe four:

    1) The government might just scrape through the vote with only a few Con rebels and/or with help from a handful of Labour Brexiteers, In that case, I suppose things carry on much as before, except that Corbyn would be seeking to use the vote to try to enhance support for Labour amongst those opposed to Brexit or wanting the softest possible Brexit.

    1a) A possible variant of the first scenario would be some kind of government fudge whereby they either pretend that the amendment is compatible with their existing policies, or seek to amend it slightly to make it so. Although that might seem a bit far-fetched, Corbyn's speech showed that the new Labour Brexit-policy-of-the-day is so vague that without too much reference to Alice in Wonderland, the government could try to redefine terms and carry on as before. The Institute of Directions has suggested a partial customs union which might be a way out of the mess.

    You cannot generally amend an amendment prior to it being passed, without the consent of the movers - is there a procedure in parliament by which the government could try to change the wording to do the pretending you suggest in 1a?

    I’m still unconvinced there is “clear blue water” between May and Corbyn. Who can actually define the difference between a customs union and a customs arrangement?

    Certainly not most people, I would guess. It is quite clever, as you say, since all anyone needs to know is whether this is softer brexit, and obviously the government will ensure that is what people know about it.
  • Where the tories are failing is not corbyn looking business friendly...Quite the opposite...They are letting the narrative that the city, the free press, the utility companies all must he crushed as capitalism has failed and only the state can do this stuff properly.

    Osborne was extremely effective at killing the two eds much more modest and centrist ideas revolving around putting the thumb on the scale a bit.

    I was so frustrated last year that the economy didn't feature at all during the Tory campaign. A good Tory campaign would have shredded Corbyn and McDonnell.

    All because Mrs May and her cronies wanted to sack Hammond after the election they hid away during the campaign lest he has a good campaign and becomes unsackable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020

    I think we're inexplicably heading for a referendum on the deal.

    1) Leave with no deal onto WTO Terms

    2) Accept the deal and Leave

    3) Reject the deal and Remain

    Conducted under the alternative vote system,

    This might be the only way to heal the nation.

    That was potentially plausible until you suggested there would be a vote under AV.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,675
    kle4 said:

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    If they think it is the best option for the country then they should, even if it means Corbyn will become PM. They would need to ask themselves if the cost of the latter was worth the cost of the former, and if they are prepared for the personal consequences to themselves.
    If they really thought that they shouldn't have stood on the 2017 Conservative manifesto, but at least had the guts to stand as independents or Lib Dems.

    Even if one really does believe leaving the Customs Union is a bad idea, it can't hold a candle to the damage Corbyn would do.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,815
    Soubry et al voting against the government is stupid.

    Voting them down for not offering something that will be rejected by the EU - well that needs a new adjective.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311
    kle4 said:

    You cannot generally amend an amendment prior to it being passed, without the consent of the movers - is there a procedure in parliament by which the government could try to change the wording to do the pretending you suggest in 1a?

    It's a Tory backbench amendment, so perhaps arms could be usefully twisted.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,470
    edited February 26

    I think we're inexplicably heading for a referendum on the deal.

    1) Leave with no deal onto WTO Terms

    2) Accept the deal and Leave

    3) Reject the deal and Remain

    Conducted under the alternative vote system,

    This might be the only way to heal the nation.

    No way.

    If there is a second referendum it will either be (a) deal or crash out - if held by May/Boris/JRM; or (b) deal or remain - if held by Labour and perhaps a couple of soft Tories.

    Edit: in hindsight I feel by pointing this out I have fallen into your trap... trolls, eh?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,466
    tpfkar said:

    Bottom line is that the Tories are making Jeremy Corbyn - Jeremy Corbyn! - look pragmatic, moderate and business-friendly. How is that even possible?

    It's interesting that he's not as fixed in his positions as everyone (allies and opponents alike) thought. He's evolved a good deal as leader from professional insurgent to potential PM, losing purity but gaining credibility.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, when? [I backed a second referendum at 6.5 but I think it was pre-March 2019].

    Also, a three option referendum is a very bad idea. The winner could have just 34%, and is likely to have a minority of the vote. Plus, your mooted options would split the Leave vote and unite the Remain vote. There'd be cries of foul play and gerrymandering. If Remain got 40% and the other options 30% each, then it'd be 60% for Leave under varying terms and we'd end up staying in.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490

    WRT Phil Shiner, this is what the Law Society's Gazette were saying about him, three years ago.

    " A century ago American journalist Finley Peter Dunne declared that it is the business of a newspaper to ‘comfort the afflicted, and afflict the comfortable’.

    Elements of the press have turned that maxim on its head in striving to make a hate figure of human rights lawyer Phil Shiner, who has led attempts to prosecute British soldiers for alleged war crimes in Iraq. Shiner and his staff have been subject to death threats and intimidation for seeking to hold the state and its military to account.

    Of course, this is not really news. Gazette readers will know that Shiner has been a target for media-manufactured vilification for years. In recent weeks the phenomenon has merely (though not ‘merely’) reached a new pitch of malign hysteria.

    Shiner is not an assimilable character and doesn’t want to be. He has crossed many powerful people. And as a bete noire of establishment newspapers, he might have come straight from central casting.

    But as we contemplate secret courts, the curtailment of judicial review and the erosion of the right to representation by independent counsel, a thought occurs. It is that we need more lawyers like Shiner, not fewer, who are willing to put themselves in the line of fire as a bulwark against the overweaning power of the state."

    LOL!
  • rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.

    I thought you lived in Wales?

    Unfortunately the policies of Jeremy Corbyn and his Chancellor are designed to tax people like me and my parents until the pips squeak.

    I also own property which is generally unoccupied most nights, something else Corbyn and his team would like to seize.
    Property is undertaxed compared to income and other investments.
    Jezza is right to be considering a land value tax.
    My parents are retired, like most of the homeowners on our street.

    My parents bought their house in 1981 for around 15k, our neighbours bought their houses for around the same prices.

    The houses around here are worth around 500k to 1.2 million, so because of no fault of their own they are sitting on huge asset rises.

    A land value tax will be linked to property prices, so tell me what they should do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020
    Essexit said:

    kle4 said:

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    If they think it is the best option for the country then they should, even if it means Corbyn will become PM. They would need to ask themselves if the cost of the latter was worth the cost of the former, and if they are prepared for the personal consequences to themselves.
    If they really thought that they shouldn't have stood on the 2017 Conservative manifesto, but at least had the guts to stand as independents or Lib Dems.

    Even if one really does believe leaving the Customs Union is a bad idea, it can't hold a candle to the damage Corbyn would do.
    Possibly. As for the first point, they are helped there, of course, by the government's Brexit stance not being clear - indeed, they have still been arguing internally about it into 2018 - therefore while the direction of travel was clear, they could legitimately say they were standing for the bulk of it, but would not cross certain lines. Of course, as I said about personal consequences such defiance leading to such a result as Corbyn in No. 10 would have a reaction, and frankly it would be better to just jump before being pushed if they truly felt on such a vital issue they could not back their own party any more.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,815

    Where the tories are failing is not corbyn looking business friendly...Quite the opposite...They are letting the narrative that the city, the free press, the utility companies all must he crushed as capitalism has failed and only the state can do this stuff properly.

    Osborne was extremely effective at killing the two eds much more modest and centrist ideas revolving around putting the thumb on the scale a bit.

    I was so frustrated last year that the economy didn't feature at all during the Tory campaign. A good Tory campaign would have shredded Corbyn and McDonnell.

    All because Mrs May and her cronies wanted to sack Hammond after the election they hid away during the campaign lest he has a good campaign and becomes unsackable.
    They should have sacked him anyway - his disastrous budget was a root cause of the election result.

    He's a liability.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,848

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, when? [I backed a second referendum at 6.5 but I think it was pre-March 2019].

    Also, a three option referendum is a very bad idea. The winner could have just 34%, and is likely to have a minority of the vote. Plus, your mooted options would split the Leave vote and unite the Remain vote. There'd be cries of foul play and gerrymandering. If Remain got 40% and the other options 30% each, then it'd be 60% for Leave under varying terms and we'd end up staying in.

    AV, Mr.D.
    :smile:
  • Where the tories are failing is not corbyn looking business friendly...Quite the opposite...They are letting the narrative that the city, the free press, the utility companies all must he crushed as capitalism has failed and only the state can do this stuff properly.

    Osborne was extremely effective at killing the two eds much more modest and centrist ideas revolving around putting the thumb on the scale a bit.

    I was so frustrated last year that the economy didn't feature at all during the Tory campaign. A good Tory campaign would have shredded Corbyn and McDonnell.

    All because Mrs May and her cronies wanted to sack Hammond after the election they hid away during the campaign lest he has a good campaign and becomes unsackable.
    The other massive mistake....promise say £200 million a week more for the NHS by say 2022 (which with inflation etc isn't a mega increase and will end up being needed with all the oldies), and then they could have let Boris out into the wild and do his thing. Like or loath him, he is very effective on the campaign trail.
  • I think we're inexplicably heading for a referendum on the deal.

    1) Leave with no deal onto WTO Terms

    2) Accept the deal and Leave

    3) Reject the deal and Remain

    Conducted under the alternative vote system,

    This might be the only way to heal the nation.

    No way.

    If there is a second referendum it will either be (a) deal or crash out - if held by May/Boris/JRM; or (b) deal or remain - if held by Labour and perhaps a couple of soft Tories.

    Edit: in hindsight I feel by pointing this out I have fallen into your trap... trolls, eh?
    No trolling, it's a genuine suggestion.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311

    tpfkar said:

    Bottom line is that the Tories are making Jeremy Corbyn - Jeremy Corbyn! - look pragmatic, moderate and business-friendly. How is that even possible?

    It's interesting that he's not as fixed in his positions as everyone (allies and opponents alike) thought. He's evolved a good deal as leader from professional insurgent to potential PM, losing purity but gaining credibility.
    His 'purity' (which was always mythical, of course) is supposed to be his greatest strength, is it not?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020

    kle4 said:

    You cannot generally amend an amendment prior to it being passed, without the consent of the movers - is there a procedure in parliament by which the government could try to change the wording to do the pretending you suggest in 1a?

    It's a Tory backbench amendment, so perhaps arms could be usefully twisted.
    Those proposing seem to have been immune to that so far, and have openly been called traitors in the press, I would suspect the ability to pressure them has gone as far as May and the others is concerned. What can they do, kick them out of the party? What would that accomplish?
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,054

    I think we're inexplicably heading for a referendum on the deal.

    1) Leave with no deal onto WTO Terms

    2) Accept the deal and Leave

    3) Reject the deal and Remain

    Conducted under the alternative vote system,

    This might be the only way to heal the nation.

    No way.

    If there is a second referendum it will either be (a) deal or crash out - if held by May/Boris/JRM; or (b) deal or remain - if held by Labour and perhaps a couple of soft Tories.

    Edit: in hindsight I feel by pointing this out I have fallen into your trap... trolls, eh?
    Remain is dead. I could see a three choice AV referendum on Norway, Canada and WTO.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    You cannot generally amend an amendment prior to it being passed, without the consent of the movers - is there a procedure in parliament by which the government could try to change the wording to do the pretending you suggest in 1a?

    It's a Tory backbench amendment, so perhaps arms could be usefully twisted.
    Those proposing seem to have been immune to that so far, and have openly been called traitors in the press, I would suspect the ability to pressure them has gone as far as May and the others is concerned. What can they do, kick them out of the party? What would that accomplish?
    I wasn't suggesting it was going to be easy!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    edited February 26

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, when? [I backed a second referendum at 6.5 but I think it was pre-March 2019].

    Also, a three option referendum is a very bad idea. The winner could have just 34%, and is likely to have a minority of the vote. Plus, your mooted options would split the Leave vote and unite the Remain vote. There'd be cries of foul play and gerrymandering. If Remain got 40% and the other options 30% each, then it'd be 60% for Leave under varying terms and we'd end up staying in.

    Conducted in October of this year.

    That's why I said it should be conducted under AV to avoid that very problem.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    But if the Commons votes for a Customs Union, then there would be no point in the Tory rebels overthrowing May since no one that they could replace her with would be able to override parliament on the Customs Union issue. It might be initially humiliating for May but ironically it might help her survive until after Brexit.

  • I think we're inexplicably heading for a referendum on the deal.

    1) Leave with no deal onto WTO Terms

    2) Accept the deal and Leave

    3) Reject the deal and Remain

    Conducted under the alternative vote system,

    This might be the only way to heal the nation.

    No way.

    If there is a second referendum it will either be (a) deal or crash out - if held by May/Boris/JRM; or (b) deal or remain - if held by Labour and perhaps a couple of soft Tories.

    Edit: in hindsight I feel by pointing this out I have fallen into your trap... trolls, eh?
    No trolling, it's a genuine suggestion.
    What chance you think it actually happens that way...?

    I'll give you 8/1.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,211

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
    How does their proposed amendment assist us?
    Protects trade and the economy ensuring no disruption to trade.

    It also solves the Irish Border question.
    I don't see that it does. It just seems to make the government's negotiations a bit harder.
    You Brexiteers thought leaving would be the easiest in history.

    This is reality.
    It will be the easiest in history, surely? Every decade we wait will simply make it harder.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020

    tpfkar said:

    Bottom line is that the Tories are making Jeremy Corbyn - Jeremy Corbyn! - look pragmatic, moderate and business-friendly. How is that even possible?

    It's interesting that he's not as fixed in his positions as everyone (allies and opponents alike) thought. He's evolved a good deal as leader from professional insurgent to potential PM, losing purity but gaining credibility.
    It is, in one way, a good thing, in that it makes him more like every other politician. Given part of the myth-making about him is that he is different to every other politician I feel like that will ultimately hurt his brand, but he's fortunate that I doubt that sort of thing would really come back to haunt him as true believers realise he is, gasp, a professional politician, until he is actually in office.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,133


    Those people who voted against TMay in 2017, in an attempt to stop Brexit, have made it more likely we will have a harder Brexit.

    Do not complain, you will still get your Brexit.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,815

    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.

    I thought you lived in Wales?

    Unfortunately the policies of Jeremy Corbyn and his Chancellor are designed to tax people like me and my parents until the pips squeak.

    I also own property which is generally unoccupied most nights, something else Corbyn and his team would like to seize.
    Property is undertaxed compared to income and other investments.
    Jezza is right to be considering a land value tax.
    My parents are retired, like most of the homeowners on our street.

    My parents bought their house in 1981 for around 15k, our neighbours bought their houses for around the same prices.

    The houses around here are worth around 500k to 1.2 million, so because of no fault of their own they are sitting on huge asset rises.

    A land value tax will be linked to property prices, so tell me what they should do.
    They should have subdivided it into 6 and gifted free accommodation to poor people.

    That's what Jezza and Billy Bragg have er... well...

  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    tpfkar said:

    Bottom line is that the Tories are making Jeremy Corbyn - Jeremy Corbyn! - look pragmatic, moderate and business-friendly. How is that even possible?

    It's interesting that he's not as fixed in his positions as everyone (allies and opponents alike) thought. He's evolved a good deal as leader from professional insurgent to potential PM, losing purity but gaining credibility.
    But the next election will be fought on the economy on which Corbyn is not credible. If you think he is gaining credibility, how come he is not ahead in the polls on the economy, and why is Labour not 12 points ahead-like Ed Miliband was?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020
    Nigelb said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, when? [I backed a second referendum at 6.5 but I think it was pre-March 2019].

    Also, a three option referendum is a very bad idea. The winner could have just 34%, and is likely to have a minority of the vote. Plus, your mooted options would split the Leave vote and unite the Remain vote. There'd be cries of foul play and gerrymandering. If Remain got 40% and the other options 30% each, then it'd be 60% for Leave under varying terms and we'd end up staying in.

    AV, Mr.D.
    :smile:
    Perhaps a refresher on the system is needed.
  • I think we're inexplicably heading for a referendum on the deal.

    1) Leave with no deal onto WTO Terms

    2) Accept the deal and Leave

    3) Reject the deal and Remain

    Conducted under the alternative vote system,

    This might be the only way to heal the nation.

    Obviously we would need a referendum on the AV system before we could hold the second referendum on Brexit.

    The first Brexit referendum vote was to leave. So the second Brexit referendum should only be about which type of leave ie WTO or the negotiated terms.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,547

    I think we're inexplicably heading for a referendum on the deal.

    1) Leave with no deal onto WTO Terms

    2) Accept the deal and Leave

    3) Reject the deal and Remain

    Conducted under the alternative vote system,

    This might be the only way to heal the nation.

    No way.

    If there is a second referendum it will either be (a) deal or crash out - if held by May/Boris/JRM; or (b) deal or remain - if held by Labour and perhaps a couple of soft Tories.

    It depends when such a referendum is held, too. The question and perhaps options will be different if a vote is held pre-Brexit versus post-Brexit and during early transition.

    However, logically you’d hope for a two question referendum.
    Something like:

    Should we accept the Deal?
    If not, should we Remain, or Leave?

    It would be very democratic.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,133
    Essexit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    She won't be facing an entirely united Labour Party. There's the Labour Leavers plus Caroline Flint and other Brexit means Brexit Remainers. Tories flirting with the idea of rebelling night ask themselves if they really want to hand Jeremy Corbyn this victory.

    Country before party.

    A bad Brexit begets Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    Soubry, Grieve et al are acting like true patriots.
    How does their proposed amendment assist us?
    By stopping us from Taking Back Control of our own trade policy. Britain is too weak and feeble to be trusted with this responsibility so the EU must look after us.
    I do not know if "weak" is a word I would use to describe the state of UK politics at the moment. "Incompetent" seems a better choice in my opinion. :/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490

    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.

    I thought you lived in Wales?

    Unfortunately the policies of Jeremy Corbyn and his Chancellor are designed to tax people like me and my parents until the pips squeak.

    I also own property which is generally unoccupied most nights, something else Corbyn and his team would like to seize.
    Property is undertaxed compared to income and other investments.
    Jezza is right to be considering a land value tax.
    My parents are retired, like most of the homeowners on our street.

    My parents bought their house in 1981 for around 15k, our neighbours bought their houses for around the same prices.

    The houses around here are worth around 500k to 1.2 million, so because of no fault of their own they are sitting on huge asset rises.

    A land value tax will be linked to property prices, so tell me what they should do.
    If Corbyn gets in, sell, downsize, and put the balance into something that's tax-efficient.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020
    stevef said:

    tpfkar said:

    Bottom line is that the Tories are making Jeremy Corbyn - Jeremy Corbyn! - look pragmatic, moderate and business-friendly. How is that even possible?

    It's interesting that he's not as fixed in his positions as everyone (allies and opponents alike) thought. He's evolved a good deal as leader from professional insurgent to potential PM, losing purity but gaining credibility.
    But the next election will be fought on the economy on which Corbyn is not credible. If you think he is gaining credibility, how come he is not ahead in the polls on the economy, and why is Labour not 12 points ahead-like Ed Miliband was?
    The next election may possibly be in 2022 and the Tories will have been in office 12 years (which is a good run), we are due an economic downturn, and the Brexit scars will be deep. At GEs it seems you tend to get 2 arguments: the 'time for a change' argument and 'don't risk it' argument. After 12 years of mostly austerity and the deep divisions to the party from Brexit, I would not be so confident that people will not be prepared to risk it. It is, however, still somewhat impressive that it isn't certain Labour would win, and the Tories therefore have a chance.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,825
    Isn't the fact that it is so hard to disentangle ourselves is itself an indication that we need to be less attached to something that is not working for our interests?

    To be tied, constrained and cuffed (and maybe blindfolded too) in a way that prevents the expression and pursuance of your individual needs, interests and requirements is not a positive.

    The EU will inevitably become either a slower reacting body to the faster global changes (because there are so many disparate views to align into agreement) or it may become quicker to react (by denying the individual constituent parts influence or democratic input).

    Those two options carry one common feature. It is one which is negative to some of the membership of the organisation.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,245
    Sean_F said:

    Setting aside views on what a Corbyn government would be like, how has May managed to find herself estranged from her base? The Tory party is (was) owned and operated by big business, albeit with a shift away from actual constructive business towards head fund shysters in recent years.

    Her "We are leaving the Customs Union" position may temporarily protect her own head. But its a disaster for business, industry and the city - and she seems utterly oblivious to why. To see the likes of the CBI and IoD lining up with Labour against the Tories on a Business and Economics issue is mind blowing - they may hate Corbyn and everything else he stands for, but if he will stop the economy crashing off the cliff then they will stand with him.

    A Tory leader who puts her own survival ahead of all that. And the cretins in the Tory party still think she is fit to lead?

    Multinationals are not the base of the Conservative Party. The base is its 13 m voters, of whom the vast majority say they would still vote Conservative.
    True but the 13 m , do not fund the party.That is why May will eventually listen to big business.Not those who vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020


    Those people who voted against TMay in 2017, in an attempt to stop Brexit, have made it more likely we will have a harder Brexit.

    Do not complain, you will still get your Brexit.
    Maybe some people wanted a softer Brexit. Not everyone was a Brexit at any price true believer.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 919

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, when? [I backed a second referendum at 6.5 but I think it was pre-March 2019].

    Also, a three option referendum is a very bad idea. The winner could have just 34%, and is likely to have a minority of the vote. Plus, your mooted options would split the Leave vote and unite the Remain vote. There'd be cries of foul play and gerrymandering. If Remain got 40% and the other options 30% each, then it'd be 60% for Leave under varying terms and we'd end up staying in.

    You could make it an informal 3 option AV referendum by phrasing the ballot paper as follows:

    1) The Government has negotiated an exit deal to leave the European Union on March 29th 2019. Should the UK accept this deal or reject this deal?

    Accept [X]
    Reject [X]

    2) If a majority do not accept the exit deal to leave the European Union, should the UK leave without any deal on March 29th 2019 or seek to remain in the EU?

    Leave with no deal [X]
    Seek to remain [X]
  • Has anyone thought of holding a referendum under the proportional representation system.

    (Apart from the recent Brexit referendum which many Labour MPs believe means they should only 0.52 Leave the EU and 0.48 Remain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020
    Sean_F said:


    WRT Phil Shiner, this is what the Law Society's Gazette were saying about him, three years ago.

    " A century ago American journalist Finley Peter Dunne declared that it is the business of a newspaper to ‘comfort the afflicted, and afflict the comfortable’.

    Elements of the press have turned that maxim on its head in striving to make a hate figure of human rights lawyer Phil Shiner, who has led attempts to prosecute British soldiers for alleged war crimes in Iraq. Shiner and his staff have been subject to death threats and intimidation for seeking to hold the state and its military to account.

    Of course, this is not really news. Gazette readers will know that Shiner has been a target for media-manufactured vilification for years. In recent weeks the phenomenon has merely (though not ‘merely’) reached a new pitch of malign hysteria.

    Shiner is not an assimilable character and doesn’t want to be. He has crossed many powerful people. And as a bete noire of establishment newspapers, he might have come straight from central casting.

    But as we contemplate secret courts, the curtailment of judicial review and the erosion of the right to representation by independent counsel, a thought occurs. It is that we need more lawyers like Shiner, not fewer, who are willing to put themselves in the line of fire as a bulwark against the overweaning power of the state."

    LOL!

    Ouch. Always a bugger when you are defending a principle which may well be sound, but the person chosen as the exemplar of that principle is a shit.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,815
    philiph said:

    Isn't the fact that it is so hard to disentangle ourselves is itself an indication that we need to be less attached to something that is not working for our interests?

    To be tied, constrained and cuffed (and maybe blindfolded too) in a way that prevents the expression and pursuance of your individual needs, interests and requirements is not a positive.

    The EU will inevitably become either a slower reacting body to the faster global changes (because there are so many disparate views to align into agreement) or it may become quicker to react (by denying the individual constituent parts influence or democratic input).

    Those two options carry one common feature. It is one which is negative to some of the membership of the organisation.

    ^^^ good post.

    "it's difficult to leave " is one of the most cowardly and weak outlooks on Brexit that pervades many commentators.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,825
    Scott_P said:

    It has been an educational day on the Brexit front.

    A couple of the more fervent Brexiteers have a dawning realisation that the Brexit we are going to end up with is a bit shit.

    Brexit where we lose most of our trade is a bit shit.

    Brexit where Corbyn becomes PM is a bit shit.

    Brexit where we have less control is a bit shit.

    As some of us have been saying, since before the vote, there is NO version of Brexit that is not a bit shit.

    Once the true believers realise that, then the real fun starts :smile:

    For many people the status quo is a lot shit. Do you see the problem with your haughty lines?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,547
    Sean_F said:

    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.

    I thought you lived in Wales?

    Unfortunately the policies of Jeremy Corbyn and his Chancellor are designed to tax people like me and my parents until the pips squeak.

    I also own property which is generally unoccupied most nights, something else Corbyn and his team would like to seize.
    Property is undertaxed compared to income and other investments.
    Jezza is right to be considering a land value tax.
    My parents are retired, like most of the homeowners on our street.

    My parents bought their house in 1981 for around 15k, our neighbours bought their houses for around the same prices.

    The houses around here are worth around 500k to 1.2 million, so because of no fault of their own they are sitting on huge asset rises.

    A land value tax will be linked to property prices, so tell me what they should do.
    If Corbyn gets in, sell, downsize, and put the balance into something that's tax-efficient.
    Pay up? Since - through no fault of their own - they’ve massively benefitted from the last twenty odd years whereas a whole generation seem to have missed out?
  • I think we're inexplicably heading for a referendum on the deal.

    1) Leave with no deal onto WTO Terms

    2) Accept the deal and Leave

    3) Reject the deal and Remain

    Conducted under the alternative vote system,

    This might be the only way to heal the nation.

    No way.

    If there is a second referendum it will either be (a) deal or crash out - if held by May/Boris/JRM; or (b) deal or remain - if held by Labour and perhaps a couple of soft Tories.

    Edit: in hindsight I feel by pointing this out I have fallen into your trap... trolls, eh?
    No trolling, it's a genuine suggestion.
    What chance you think it actually happens that way...?

    I'll give you 8/1.
    Do I win if Corbyn proposes something like that?
  • tpfkar said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, when? [I backed a second referendum at 6.5 but I think it was pre-March 2019].

    Also, a three option referendum is a very bad idea. The winner could have just 34%, and is likely to have a minority of the vote. Plus, your mooted options would split the Leave vote and unite the Remain vote. There'd be cries of foul play and gerrymandering. If Remain got 40% and the other options 30% each, then it'd be 60% for Leave under varying terms and we'd end up staying in.

    You could make it an informal 3 option AV referendum by phrasing the ballot paper as follows:

    1) The Government has negotiated an exit deal to leave the European Union on March 29th 2019. Should the UK accept this deal or reject this deal?

    Accept [X]
    Reject [X]

    2) If a majority do not accept the exit deal to leave the European Union, should the UK leave without any deal on March 29th 2019 or seek to remain in the EU?

    Leave with no deal [X]
    Seek to remain [X]
    That would be terrible, unless it is two separate ballots.

    The campaign would be very confusing. You'd get people who say "Reject, Remain" and "Reject, WTO" on the same stump - and then not - and those who say "Accept" having to undermine their own position by picking a position on the second question.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 788

    John_M said:

    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.

    I thought you lived in Wales?
    Wales has been part of the Kingdom of England since 1535.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,325
    edited February 26
    I see Commie Murray has got an official gig with Jezza,

    Jeremy Corbyn makes Unite's Andrew Murray a part-time consultant

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/26/jeremy-corbyn-makes-unites-andrew-murray-part-time-consultant

    Highlights of his career include,

    Mr Murray was a member of the British Communist party for 40 years before he quit to join Labour under Mr Corbyn's left-wing leadership.

    He has defended the Russian tyrant Stalin, suggesting his regime was better than living in the West.

    And he has written an article expressing 'solidarity' with North Korea - which is ruled under the tyrant Kim Jong Un.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490
    Yorkcity said:

    Sean_F said:

    Setting aside views on what a Corbyn government would be like, how has May managed to find herself estranged from her base? The Tory party is (was) owned and operated by big business, albeit with a shift away from actual constructive business towards head fund shysters in recent years.

    Her "We are leaving the Customs Union" position may temporarily protect her own head. But its a disaster for business, industry and the city - and she seems utterly oblivious to why. To see the likes of the CBI and IoD lining up with Labour against the Tories on a Business and Economics issue is mind blowing - they may hate Corbyn and everything else he stands for, but if he will stop the economy crashing off the cliff then they will stand with him.

    A Tory leader who puts her own survival ahead of all that. And the cretins in the Tory party still think she is fit to lead?

    Multinationals are not the base of the Conservative Party. The base is its 13 m voters, of whom the vast majority say they would still vote Conservative.
    True but the 13 m , do not fund the party.That is why May will eventually listen to big business.Not those who vote.
    Corporate funding is not that significant these days.

    We should welcome the fact that the Conservative Party is not the creature of large corporations, not criticise them for it.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,154

    rkrkrk said:

    John_M said:

    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.

    I thought you lived in Wales?

    Unfortunately the policies of Jeremy Corbyn and his Chancellor are designed to tax people like me and my parents until the pips squeak.

    I also own property which is generally unoccupied most nights, something else Corbyn and his team would like to seize.
    Property is undertaxed compared to income and other investments.
    Jezza is right to be considering a land value tax.
    My parents are retired, like most of the homeowners on our street.

    My parents bought their house in 1981 for around 15k, our neighbours bought their houses for around the same prices.

    The houses around here are worth around 500k to 1.2 million, so because of no fault of their own they are sitting on huge asset rises.

    A land value tax will be linked to property prices, so tell me what they should do.
    Exactly - your parents have benefited from an enormous increase of wealth through property which was largely driven by the efforts of others around them making where they live prosperous.

    It seems perfectly reasonable that some proportion of that wealth should be reclaimed for the public who created it.

    Speaking for myself - a transition phase seems perfectly reasonable. I also quite liked some version of the Miliband idea of allowing people to defer the tax until they sell their property, at least in the interim.

    None of this is intended as an attack on your parents - who I'm sure are very wise and knowledgeable people to have raised someone with such excellent views on AV.

    This paragraph quote Churchill sums up:

    "I hope you will understand that, when I speak of the land monopolist, I am dealing more with the process than with the individual land owner who, in most cases, is a worthy person utterly unconscious of the character of the methods by which he is enriched. I have no wish to hold any class up to public disapprobation. I do not think that the man who makes money by unearned increment in land is morally worse than anyone else who gathers his profit where he finds it in this hard world under the law and according to common usage. It is not the individual I attack; it is the system. It is not the man who is bad; it is the law which is bad. It is not the man who is blameworthy for doing what the law allows and what other men do; it is the State which would be blameworthy if it were not to endeavour to reform the law and correct the practice."

  • rpjs said:

    John_M said:

    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.

    I thought you lived in Wales?
    Wales has been part of the Kingdom of England since 1535.
    I know Wales isn't a real country but their rugby fans get very upset when you point that out.

    They then suggest where I should stick the sweet chariot.
  • rpjs said:

    John_M said:

    I shall stay here. I will not abandon my beloved England, despite Comrade Corbyn.

    I thought you lived in Wales?
    Wales has been part of the Kingdom of England since 1535.
    I know Wales isn't a real country but their rugby fans get very upset when you point that out.

    They then suggest where I should stick the sweet chariot.
    I hear they produce particularly good referees though ;-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited February 26
    If Mrs May does get her plan to depart the Customs Union through it may be with the support of Labour rebels like Frank Field and Kate Hoey
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311

    I see Commie Murray has got an official gig with Jezza,

    Jeremy Corbyn makes Unite's Andrew Murray a part-time consultant

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/26/jeremy-corbyn-makes-unites-andrew-murray-part-time-consultant

    Highlights of his career include,

    Mr Murray was a member of the British Communist party for 40 years before he quit to join Labour under Mr Corbyn's left-wing leadership.

    He has defended the Russian tyrant Stalin, suggesting his regime was better than living in the West.

    And he has written an article expressing 'solidarity' with North Korea - which is ruled under the tyrant Kim Jong Un.

    He'll fit in well.
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