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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tory headache that no one talks about – the 3.2m GE2017 CO

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  • HYUFD said:

    Key fact - of the top 10 Tory target seats they need to win at the next general election for an overall majority and currently held by Labour 8 voted Leave.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    Of the top 10 Labour target seats currently held by the Tories they need to win to prevent another Tory deal with the DUP again 8 voted Leave.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

    It is Leave seats, not Remain seats, which will determine the next general election

    Strikes me there's more than the usual level of witchcraft in these calculations.

    Given:

    (a) the referendum was close
    (b) the election was close
    (c) they were counted in different areas and
    (d) the definition of "Leave constituencies" is therefore an extrapolation...

    ...there must be a significant margin of error in giving a binary description of Leave or Remain.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,480
    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.
  • Scott_P said:
    Theresa May is awesome.

    Though it does look like she is following where Corbyn leads.
    Worth noting that in the article Hardman says she thinks the rumours probably aren't true
    Last time there was a heavily trailed speech from Theresa May, she announced to the G7 that extremism was a bad thing and that someone should do something about the internet. Words to stir a nation.
  • Mr. Pulpstar, fewer* seats. Cooler, two weeks.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,367
    @carriesymonds: Liam Fox: "The UK is one of the world’s largest & most successful economies. We are at record levels of employment. Our success is
    underpinned by a legal system whose reputation is second to none. We have a skilled workforce and a low tax and a well-regulated economy"

    AND ALL WHILE MEMBERS OF THE EU.

    It's almost like leaving could put that in jeopardy...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,199

    Scott_P said:
    Theresa May is awesome.

    Though it does look like she is following where Corbyn leads.
    Worth noting that in the article Hardman says she thinks the rumours probably aren't true
    Last time there was a heavily trailed speech from Theresa May, she announced to the G7 that extremism was a bad thing and that someone should do something about the internet. Words to stir a nation.
    Maybe this will be like the reshuffle. The speech will just be 30 seconds of her thanking everyone for attending.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332

    HYUFD said:

    Key fact - of the top 10 Tory target seats they need to win at the next general election for an overall majority and currently held by Labour 8 voted Leave.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    Of the top 10 Labour target seats currently held by the Tories they need to win to prevent another Tory deal with the DUP again 8 voted Leave.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

    It is Leave seats, not Remain seats, which will determine the next general election

    Strikes me there's more than the usual level of witchcraft in these calculations.

    Given:

    (a) the referendum was close
    (b) the election was close
    (c) they were counted in different areas and
    (d) the definition of "Leave constituencies" is therefore an extrapolation...

    ...there must be a significant margin of error in giving a binary description of Leave or Remain.

    The fact is almost 70% of constituencies voted Leave but only 52% of voters as a whole.

    Remain bumped up its total in the popular vote by winning huge majorities in the inner cities and university towns in safe Labour seats
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,480
    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    A comfortable majority of Tory 2017 voters voted Leave and a comfortable majority of Labour 2017 voters voted Remain neither party can therefore afford to lose its base.

    Note too that Tory Remain voters were concentrated in safe seats in the Home Counties while Labour Leave voters were concentrated in marginal seats in the North and Midlands, so under FPTP it is Labpur who has more to lose by losing its Leave voters than the Tories do by losing their Remain voters.

    Polling from Survation has also suggested a Remainer like Rudd or Hammond would get a lower Tory voteshare against Corbyn than a Leaver like Davis or Boris would if they succeeded May as Tory leader before the next general election

    Have you got some more detail to back your seat distribution analysis particularly where it relates to marginals? Labour was supposed to lose lots of the seats you describe on June 8th. It lost 6 to the Tories but gained 28 and the gains included 11 in the midlands and the north. ,
    Just 4 were in the Midlands. Warwick & Leamington was the only council area in the West Midlands that voted Remain, and High Peak is technically in the Midlands but has more in common with the North West or Yorkshire and the Humber. That leaves Derby North and Lincoln.

    The Tories gained 4 seats from Labour in the Midlands, so it was a dead heat in terms of gains and losses for the two parties.
    But the thing is that the Labour vote actually increased roughly the same in Leave seats as it did in Remain seats. What made the difference is that there were wild variations in how much the Conservatives increased in Leave seats as opposed to Remain seats, because (naturally enough) there were many more UKIP votes for the Tories to pick up in Leave seats.

    That goes for regions too - people talk as if the Labour increase in London was wildly better than their increase nationally, but actually, the increase there was 'only' 10.8%, which is only very slightly above their overall English vote increase of 10.3%, and less than their increase in the Brexit-voting South West (11.5%).
    Interesting. I investigated Lab-Tory swing and only found a weakish correlation to Leave, but I haven't looked at the Tory straight % increase compared to Leave/remain and also the Lab vote.
    You might be onto something here. Some work needed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,535
    edited February 2018
    Mr. P, we also had the worst recession in modern history whilst members of the EU.

    The EU affects many things but just saying good or bad things happened whilst a member is not much use unless connections are proven or reasoned to EU membership.

    Edited extra bit: Verstappen's had a bit of a fuel leak.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thornberry is Ed Miliband in a skirt, Starmer Andy Burnham without the northern accent

    Are you saying either Ed Milliband or Andy Burnham wouldn't win a GE if it were called tomorrow?
    Ed Miliband wouldn't, at least certainly not a majority, Burnham has an outside chance but I doubt would do that much better than Corbyn
  • calum said:
    Is this right / appropiate for an irish PM to be getting involved in this way?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,217
    Scott_P said:

    @carriesymonds: Liam Fox: "The UK is one of the world’s largest & most successful economies. We are at record levels of employment. Our success is
    underpinned by a legal system whose reputation is second to none. We have a skilled workforce and a low tax and a well-regulated economy"

    AND ALL WHILE MEMBERS OF THE EU.

    It's almost like leaving could put that in jeopardy...

    Leaving but not leaving would certainly be putting things in jeopardy. Losing the right to influence EU rules but still having to abide by them - I call that risky
  • Is this right / appropriate for an irish PM to be getting involved in this way?

    I think it's reasonable, though I suspect it's got more to do with damaging SF in the Republic than anything else.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,066
    calum said:
    Given the enmity between Sinn Féin and Fine Gael, Varadkar might be optimistic that the former will do what he says.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,083

    Mr. P, we also had the worst recession in modern history whilst members of the EU.

    The EU affects many things but just saying good or bad things happened whilst a member is not much use unless connections are proven or reasoned to EU membership.

    Edited extra bit: Verstappen's had a bit of a fuel leak.

    Would you rather go back and live in the UK as it was in about 1970, before we joined the EU, or live in the UK as it is now? If the latter, you can thank the EU for all the improvements.

    (/obvious troll)
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,217
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thornberry is Ed Miliband in a skirt, Starmer Andy Burnham without the northern accent

    Are you saying either Ed Milliband or Andy Burnham wouldn't win a GE if it were called tomorrow?
    Ed Miliband wouldn't, at least certainly not a majority, Burnham has an outside chance but I doubt would do that much better than Corbyn
    Burnham would first have to return to being an MP... and give up being the professional Whinger-in-chief for Manchesterford.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    Varadkar has the brains of a Pot Noodle.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,217
    FF43 said:

    calum said:
    Given the enmity between Sinn Féin and Fine Gael, Varadkar might be optimistic that the former will do what he says.
    Now if The Quartermaster were to suggest it, SF might listen
  • I see the cantankerous gnome has been burbling once more.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131
    No one is saying we shouldn't have voted to leave (in the sense that I don't hold with the "it's too complicated to leave so we shouldn't leave" view).

    But.

    What the NI situation brings into such clear focus is that actually, if you looked at the totality of the EU relationship and our membership of it, it was doing a very good job of providing benefit to society in many areas. Were there parts which made us tear out our hair in rage? Of course. Were there bits we wanted to run a country mile from? Absolutely.

    But in the round, and specifically including the managed situation of the Six Counties, it did a very good job and I suppose it was too much trouble for anyone to think through what damage it could do to that situation in particular, and the instability of the area that it would bring, if we voted to leave.
  • O/T

    Thameslink's Finsbury Park to St Pancras rail link opened yesterday - and I did it, natch :)

    Only a weekday "preview" service at the moment:

    From Finsbury Park:
    1059
    1429
    1511

    From St Pancras:
    1145
    1306
    1521

    I am assuming it was a Class 700 unit. How did you find the much-criticised "ironing board" seats?
    AIUI, the seating was specified by the DfT, not the franchisee. Therefore the apparently terrible seats are the responsibility of the public, not the private, sector. Bedford to Brighton will probably take a couple of hours, and the idea of having hard seats and no tables or armrests is appalling.

    Yet another argument against renationalising the railways. ;)
    No. An argument for letting railwaymen/women make decisions on the railway. Like they used to do. Under BR. When we had comfy seats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332
    edited February 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.

    Kinnock squeezed the LD vote down from 22% in 1987 under the SDP/Liberal Alliance to 17% in 1992.

    The LD vote has already been squeezed by Labour down to just 7%
  • I guess this is what happens when you tell the Republic to the leave the EU.
  • Scott_P said:

    @carriesymonds: Liam Fox: "The UK is one of the world’s largest & most successful economies. We are at record levels of employment. Our success is
    underpinned by a legal system whose reputation is second to none. We have a skilled workforce and a low tax and a well-regulated economy"

    AND ALL WHILE MEMBERS OF THE EU.

    It's almost like leaving could put that in jeopardy...

    Leaving but not leaving would certainly be putting things in jeopardy. Losing the right to influence EU rules but still having to abide by them - I call that risky
    Yeh, you're right - Let's stay.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,066
    On the why are people obsessed with Brexit but we must never surrender issue. Boredom will be an important part of the Brexit coping mechanism. At a certain point people will be so fed up with Brexit they no longer care about having our own trade deals, a say over the rules we have to implement and Freedom of Movement. They will just want to sign on the dotted line to make it go away. We are not at that point yet.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,199
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.

    Kinnock squeezed the LD vote down from 22% in 1987 under the SDP/Liberal Alliance to 17% in 1992.

    The LD vote has already been squeezed by Labour down to just 7%
    An LD resurgence, however, might hurt them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thornberry is Ed Miliband in a skirt, Starmer Andy Burnham without the northern accent

    Are you saying either Ed Milliband or Andy Burnham wouldn't win a GE if it were called tomorrow?
    Ed Miliband wouldn't, at least certainly not a majority, Burnham has an outside chance but I doubt would do that much better than Corbyn
    Burnham would first have to return to being an MP... and give up being the professional Whinger-in-chief for Manchesterford.
    Burnham as Mayor of Manchester is one of the most powerful directly elected politicians in the UK.

    He is not going to return to being a backbench MP, his chance of being Labour leader went in 2015 when Corbyn beat him in the final round
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,792

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.

    Kinnock squeezed the LD vote down from 22% in 1987 under the SDP/Liberal Alliance to 17% in 1992.

    The LD vote has already been squeezed by Labour down to just 7%
    An LD resurgence, however, might hurt them
    Or hurt the Tories most
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332
    calum said:
    Would require a Sinn Fein oath of loyalty to the Queen
  • "Labour is running out of “final” nails for its coffin, but this appointment, due to be announced by March 20, will qualify as a particularly important one."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/27/labours-new-general-secretary-will-make-sure-anti-corbyn-mps/
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,199

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.

    Kinnock squeezed the LD vote down from 22% in 1987 under the SDP/Liberal Alliance to 17% in 1992.

    The LD vote has already been squeezed by Labour down to just 7%
    An LD resurgence, however, might hurt them
    Or hurt the Tories most
    Yeah, my post was unclear but that's what I meant.

    Actually both possibilities are plausible, but the prevailing belief here seems to be that Corbyn is more toxic than the Tories, so there will be more soft Tory voters who really just want an Anything But Corbyn vote than there are soft Labour voters who really just want Anything But Conservative.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,815

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.

    Kinnock squeezed the LD vote down from 22% in 1987 under the SDP/Liberal Alliance to 17% in 1992.

    The LD vote has already been squeezed by Labour down to just 7%
    An LD resurgence, however, might hurt them
    Or hurt the Tories most
    Certainly that: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    FF43 said:

    On the why are people obsessed with Brexit but we must never surrender issue. Boredom will be an important part of the Brexit coping mechanism. At a certain point people will be so fed up with Brexit they no longer care about having our own trade deals, a say over the rules we have to implement and Freedom of Movement. They will just want to sign on the dotted line to make it go away. We are not at that point yet.

    Basically we have had 24 months of the EU bullying and berating the Uk. The Irish PM is again today sticking his nose in.

    If people tire - it will be of this foreign elite giving us non stop 24/7 grief - backed by the useful smug idiots of the media, the corporate shills like Soubry and the gormless dolts of the Labour party.

    Luckily Mrs May seems quite patient with these shrieking ninnies - which is to be admired.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,083

    O/T

    Thameslink's Finsbury Park to St Pancras rail link opened yesterday - and I did it, natch :)

    Only a weekday "preview" service at the moment:

    From Finsbury Park:
    1059
    1429
    1511

    From St Pancras:
    1145
    1306
    1521

    I am assuming it was a Class 700 unit. How did you find the much-criticised "ironing board" seats?
    AIUI, the seating was specified by the DfT, not the franchisee. Therefore the apparently terrible seats are the responsibility of the public, not the private, sector. Bedford to Brighton will probably take a couple of hours, and the idea of having hard seats and no tables or armrests is appalling.

    Yet another argument against renationalising the railways. ;)
    No. An argument for letting railwaymen/women make decisions on the railway. Like they used to do. Under BR. When we had comfy seats.
    Employees of TOCs *are* railwaymen.

    Remember, one of the reasons Labour say they want to renationalise is to reduce the number of different types of rolling stock, against the will of the TOCs. This will extend Adonis' wizard wheeze which has given us the disastrous IEP and the Thameslink trains.

    Basically: renationalisation will take such decisions out of *railwaymans* hands, and put them in the penny-pinching hands of the DfT. That's the model Labour want.

    (And they're still not saying what they'll do with the ROSCOs. Odd that).

    (Source: interview with Ian Taylor in Rail #843)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    HYUFD said:

    calum said:
    Would require a Sinn Fein oath of loyalty to the Queen
    Would be delicious if they took it and then lost the vote ....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131
    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    On the why are people obsessed with Brexit but we must never surrender issue. Boredom will be an important part of the Brexit coping mechanism. At a certain point people will be so fed up with Brexit they no longer care about having our own trade deals, a say over the rules we have to implement and Freedom of Movement. They will just want to sign on the dotted line to make it go away. We are not at that point yet.

    Basically we have had 24 months of the EU bullying and berating the Uk. The Irish PM is again today sticking his nose in.

    If people tire - it will be of this foreign elite giving us non stop 24/7 grief - backed by the useful smug idiots of the media, the corporate shills like Soubry and the gormless dolts of the Labour party.

    Luckily Mrs May seems quite patient with these shrieking ninnies - which is to be admired.
    EU in following EU rules and procedures shock.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    On the why are people obsessed with Brexit but we must never surrender issue. Boredom will be an important part of the Brexit coping mechanism. At a certain point people will be so fed up with Brexit they no longer care about having our own trade deals, a say over the rules we have to implement and Freedom of Movement. They will just want to sign on the dotted line to make it go away. We are not at that point yet.

    Basically we have had 24 months of the EU bullying and berating the Uk. The Irish PM is again today sticking his nose in.

    If people tire - it will be of this foreign elite giving us non stop 24/7 grief - backed by the useful smug idiots of the media, the corporate shills like Soubry and the gormless dolts of the Labour party.

    Luckily Mrs May seems quite patient with these shrieking ninnies - which is to be admired.
    EU in following EU rules and procedures shock.
    Which EU rule and procedure suggests the Irish PM should interfere in parly votes in another country ?

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131
    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    On the why are people obsessed with Brexit but we must never surrender issue. Boredom will be an important part of the Brexit coping mechanism. At a certain point people will be so fed up with Brexit they no longer care about having our own trade deals, a say over the rules we have to implement and Freedom of Movement. They will just want to sign on the dotted line to make it go away. We are not at that point yet.

    Basically we have had 24 months of the EU bullying and berating the Uk. The Irish PM is again today sticking his nose in.

    If people tire - it will be of this foreign elite giving us non stop 24/7 grief - backed by the useful smug idiots of the media, the corporate shills like Soubry and the gormless dolts of the Labour party.

    Luckily Mrs May seems quite patient with these shrieking ninnies - which is to be admired.
    EU in following EU rules and procedures shock.
    Which EU rule and procedure suggests the Irish PM should interfere in parly votes in another country ?

    None - just goes to show how Ireland is a sovereign nation.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    On the why are people obsessed with Brexit but we must never surrender issue. Boredom will be an important part of the Brexit coping mechanism. At a certain point people will be so fed up with Brexit they no longer care about having our own trade deals, a say over the rules we have to implement and Freedom of Movement. They will just want to sign on the dotted line to make it go away. We are not at that point yet.

    Basically we have had 24 months of the EU bullying and berating the Uk. The Irish PM is again today sticking his nose in.

    If people tire - it will be of this foreign elite giving us non stop 24/7 grief - backed by the useful smug idiots of the media, the corporate shills like Soubry and the gormless dolts of the Labour party.

    Luckily Mrs May seems quite patient with these shrieking ninnies - which is to be admired.
    EU in following EU rules and procedures shock.
    Which EU rule and procedure suggests the Irish PM should interfere in parly votes in another country ?

    None - just goes to show how Ireland is a sovereign nation.
    Yes - so it is..

    https://www.politico.eu/article/ireland-will-not-collect-e13-billion-in-taxes-from-apple-says-minister/

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,815

    Remember, one of the reasons Labour say they want to renationalise is to reduce the number of different types of rolling stock, against the will of the TOCs. This will extend Adonis' wizard wheeze which has given us the disastrous IEP and the Thameslink trains.

    IEP isn't disastrous as a train. It's more comfortable than a Voyager and less comfortable than an Adelante, but will almost certainly be more reliable than the latter.

    What is disastrous is the insane funding model which means the lifetime cost of each DfT-ordered unit is several times that of a Voyager or Adelante (see Roger Ford passim).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    Meanwhile in high tax Scotland

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-43209126

    ""This should not come as a surprise to the government, we did say that our growth in Glasgow was based on their promise to abolish APD, which morphed into a promise to half APD, which suddenly has disappeared into the ether and quite frankly we don't have any more patience.

    "There are other markets in the UK and Europe which offer a more compelling proposition.""
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.

    Kinnock squeezed the LD vote down from 22% in 1987 under the SDP/Liberal Alliance to 17% in 1992.

    The LD vote has already been squeezed by Labour down to just 7%
    An LD resurgence, however, might hurt them
    Yes the Tories could get a small majority next time if some Labour voters went LD to try and reverse Brexit or get a second referendum even if not a single Labour voter switched to the Tories
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131
    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    On the why are people obsessed with Brexit but we must never surrender issue. Boredom will be an important part of the Brexit coping mechanism. At a certain point people will be so fed up with Brexit they no longer care about having our own trade deals, a say over the rules we have to implement and Freedom of Movement. They will just want to sign on the dotted line to make it go away. We are not at that point yet.

    Basically we have had 24 months of the EU bullying and berating the Uk. The Irish PM is again today sticking his nose in.

    If people tire - it will be of this foreign elite giving us non stop 24/7 grief - backed by the useful smug idiots of the media, the corporate shills like Soubry and the gormless dolts of the Labour party.

    Luckily Mrs May seems quite patient with these shrieking ninnies - which is to be admired.
    EU in following EU rules and procedures shock.
    Which EU rule and procedure suggests the Irish PM should interfere in parly votes in another country ?

    None - just goes to show how Ireland is a sovereign nation.
    Yes - so it is..

    https://www.politico.eu/article/ireland-will-not-collect-e13-billion-in-taxes-from-apple-says-minister/

    Indeed - as a sovereign nation it signed up to the rules and them's the rules.
  • O/T

    Thameslink's Finsbury Park to St Pancras rail link opened yesterday - and I did it, natch :)

    Only a weekday "preview" service at the moment:

    From Finsbury Park:
    1059
    1429
    1511

    From St Pancras:
    1145
    1306
    1521

    I am assuming it was a Class 700 unit. How did you find the much-criticised "ironing board" seats?
    AIUI, the seating was specified by the DfT, not the franchisee. Therefore the apparently terrible seats are the responsibility of the public, not the private, sector. Bedford to Brighton will probably take a couple of hours, and the idea of having hard seats and no tables or armrests is appalling.

    Yet another argument against renationalising the railways. ;)
    No. An argument for letting railwaymen/women make decisions on the railway. Like they used to do. Under BR. When we had comfy seats.
    Employees of TOCs *are* railwaymen.

    Remember, one of the reasons Labour say they want to renationalise is to reduce the number of different types of rolling stock, against the will of the TOCs. This will extend Adonis' wizard wheeze which has given us the disastrous IEP and the Thameslink trains.

    Basically: renationalisation will take such decisions out of *railwaymans* hands, and put them in the penny-pinching hands of the DfT. That's the model Labour want.

    (And they're still not saying what they'll do with the ROSCOs. Odd that).

    (Source: interview with Ian Taylor in Rail #843)
    But the employees don't make the decisions - these are taken by bean counters, whether in Whitehall or in the private sector.

    Of course there should be fewer types of rolling stock. This would make it easier to transfer trains between parts of the country to meet changing demand and to cascade stock from one area to another. We certainly wouldn't get the nonsense of Class 707s being retired before they've barely entered service or every new type of train having a different coupling system so that they can't work in multiple.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,807

    Yes, can't see it happening. Think people from other parties urging it on them will make it less, not more likely.
    It's also pretty pathetic from remainers they are so desperate to join up with Sinn Fein.
    People need to decide whether Sinn Fein are evil terrorists in thin disguise (as evidenced by obvious nostalgia for the IRA) or latter-day peacemakers who have responsibly put the past behind them (as evidenced by DUP-SF coalition). They can't really be both, and in most minds including their own I think they're gradually migrating from the one to the other. But still can't see them taking seats in Westminster.
    A touch naive. Irish politics has always consisted of both, laced with a fair amount of corruption.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    calum said:
    Would require a Sinn Fein oath of loyalty to the Queen
    Would be delicious if they took it and then lost the vote ....
    It would indeed but I can't see them doing it
  • BromBrom Posts: 1,566
    Varadkar is an idiot. No chance Sinn Fein takes their seats. Faisal Islam is the hyperbole master, wrong on everything and everything is sensational.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,083

    Remember, one of the reasons Labour say they want to renationalise is to reduce the number of different types of rolling stock, against the will of the TOCs. This will extend Adonis' wizard wheeze which has given us the disastrous IEP and the Thameslink trains.

    IEP isn't disastrous as a train. It's more comfortable than a Voyager and less comfortable than an Adelante, but will almost certainly be more reliable than the latter.

    What is disastrous is the insane funding model which means the lifetime cost of each DfT-ordered unit is several times that of a Voyager or Adelante (see Roger Ford passim).
    That insane funding model is why I think it'll be disastrous for the passenger.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    calum said:
    Would require a Sinn Fein oath of loyalty to the Queen
    Would be delicious if they took it and then lost the vote ....
    It would indeed but I can't see them doing it
    Indeed- they would have to take their oaths in advance and a last minute concession by the govt to spike their guns would leave them having to either recant or look craven.

    I doubt SF would entertain the risk.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,807
    DavidL said:
    Is there any workplace where those in power are not seeking to exploit women sexually? It's beginning to feel like that.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.

    Kinnock squeezed the LD vote down from 22% in 1987 under the SDP/Liberal Alliance to 17% in 1992.

    The LD vote has already been squeezed by Labour down to just 7%
    An LD resurgence, however, might hurt them
    Yes the Tories could get a small majority next time if some Labour voters went LD to try and reverse Brexit or get a second referendum even if not a single Labour voter switched to the Tories
    More fantasy. The Tories are much more vulnerable to an LD revival than LAB
  • Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:
    Is there any workplace where those in power are not seeking to exploit women sexually? It's beginning to feel like that.
    In some places those in power are also seeking to exploit men sexually.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771

    First feed-back from polling by the FT and the Mirror's is that Corbyn's pledge on a Customs Union is not going down well with Labour Leave voters.

    That's what happens when you only listen to the metropolitan middle class who now run the Party.

    Labour ignoring Napoleon's basic rule of warfare: "Never interfere with your enemy when he is making a mistake."
    Are you conceding that Brexit is a mistake?
    No, but the majority of Labour voters think so as they voted Remain - so why is Labour getting in the mix needlessly at this point? At least wait until after Theresa May has given her Friday speech. Why couldn't Corbyn wait until next week?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,425
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    calum said:
    Would require a Sinn Fein oath of loyalty to the Queen
    Would be delicious if they took it and then lost the vote ....
    It would indeed but I can't see them doing it
    Indeed- they would have to take their oaths in advance and a last minute concession by the govt to spike their guns would leave them having to either recant or look craven.

    I doubt SF would entertain the risk.
    But it's just one more risk for the government to have to take on board - the pressure comes from not actually having to follow through. If they did, it would be pretty obvious what was going on.

    (Side query. Suppose something tragic happened to Her Majesty. Would the Shinners be able to sign in as MPs, on the basis that there would be no monarch to swear allegiance to? Or would Charles have a formal status immediately, before the Coronation?)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332
    edited February 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.

    Kinnock squeezed the LD vote down from 22% in 1987 under the SDP/Liberal Alliance to 17% in 1992.

    The LD vote has already been squeezed by Labour down to just 7%
    An LD resurgence, however, might hurt them
    Yes the Tories could get a small majority next time if some Labour voters went LD to try and reverse Brexit or get a second referendum even if not a single Labour voter switched to the Tories
    More fantasy. The Tories are much more vulnerable to an LD revival than LAB
    Given most Labour voters voted Remain and most Tory voters voted Leave it is actually Labour who are most at risk of defections to the pro single market and pro second referendum LDs if they are not seen as taking a distinct enough position from the Tories on Brexit.

    It is a UKIP revival the Tories need to fear
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,807

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:
    Is there any workplace where those in power are not seeking to exploit women sexually? It's beginning to feel like that.
    In some places those in power are also seeking to exploit men sexually.
    Fair enough.

    I will rephrase: Is there any workplace where those in power are not seeking to exploit those in a weaker position sexually?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,083

    But the employees don't make the decisions - these are taken by bean counters, whether in Whitehall or in the private sector.

    Of course there should be fewer types of rolling stock. This would make it easier to transfer trains between parts of the country to meet changing demand and to cascade stock from one area to another. We certainly wouldn't get the nonsense of Class 707s being retired before they've barely entered service or every new type of train having a different coupling system so that they can't work in multiple.

    No. The decisions were made by the TOC and ROSCOs talking about what is required, and coming to an agreement. That's been proven to get a better result than the DfT-led arrangement that Adonis wanted. It's in the ROSCO's interest to make the trains as flexible wrt routes as possible, and the TOCs to get something reliable that the passengers want.

    BR often built stock for specific lines - e.g. the APT for the WCML, class 91 for the ECML, and if I want to be very silly, the Hastings stock for the Hastings line. ;) Different routes can have detailed different requirements - a situation made worse by the fact we now have fixed-unit stock and not the old loco-hauled ones.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,807
    tpfkar said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    calum said:
    Would require a Sinn Fein oath of loyalty to the Queen
    Would be delicious if they took it and then lost the vote ....
    It would indeed but I can't see them doing it
    Indeed- they would have to take their oaths in advance and a last minute concession by the govt to spike their guns would leave them having to either recant or look craven.

    I doubt SF would entertain the risk.
    But it's just one more risk for the government to have to take on board - the pressure comes from not actually having to follow through. If they did, it would be pretty obvious what was going on.

    (Side query. Suppose something tragic happened to Her Majesty. Would the Shinners be able to sign in as MPs, on the basis that there would be no monarch to swear allegiance to? Or would Charles have a formal status immediately, before the Coronation?)
    The King is dead. Long live the King. There is always a monarch. Lizzie was Queen for a year and a bit before her Coronation.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,563
    tpfkar said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    calum said:
    Would require a Sinn Fein oath of loyalty to the Queen
    Would be delicious if they took it and then lost the vote ....
    It would indeed but I can't see them doing it
    Indeed- they would have to take their oaths in advance and a last minute concession by the govt to spike their guns would leave them having to either recant or look craven.

    I doubt SF would entertain the risk.
    But it's just one more risk for the government to have to take on board - the pressure comes from not actually having to follow through. If they did, it would be pretty obvious what was going on.

    (Side query. Suppose something tragic happened to Her Majesty. Would the Shinners be able to sign in as MPs, on the basis that there would be no monarch to swear allegiance to? Or would Charles have a formal status immediately, before the Coronation?)
    New Sovereign's proclaimed immediately isn’t he? Or she? IIRC Elizabeth was told in Kenya that she was now Queen.
  • BromBrom Posts: 1,566
    edited February 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.

    Kinnock squeezed the LD vote down from 22% in 1987 under the SDP/Liberal Alliance to 17% in 1992.

    The LD vote has already been squeezed by Labour down to just 7%
    An LD resurgence, however, might hurt them
    Yes the Tories could get a small majority next time if some Labour voters went LD to try and reverse Brexit or get a second referendum even if not a single Labour voter switched to the Tories
    More fantasy. The Tories are much more vulnerable to an LD revival than LAB
    Given most Labour voters voted Remain and most Tory voters voted Leave it is actually Labour who are most at risk of defections to the pro single market LDs if they are not seen as taking a distinct enough position from the Tories on Brexit
    I also can't help but think the peak Libs tactically voting Lab was exhausted at the last election. I don't see many extra Tory to Lib movers either if there is an opportunity to let Corbyn in. This may well change by 2022 depending on who the leaders are. The Lib Dems only have 13 Tory held seats where they are within a 10% swing so they'll need to up their polling significantly to win all those.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,859
    https://order-order.com/2018/02/27/compare-contrast-bbc-website-toby-young-labours-new-race-row-hire/

    There does appear to be a slight difference in standards applied by the BBC

    Who would have thought it.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Some Corbyn wankathonystas are getting excited at the prospect of Sinn Fein MPs taking their seats to wreck Brexit and possibly put Corbyn in Downing Street. They breathlessly argue that Sinn Fein MPs would do this in exchange for Corbyn agreeing to a united Ireland.

    Its not impossible to imagine Sinn Fein MPs taking their seats, but just consider the scenario for a moment:

    The Tories would be able to go to the country claiming that Corbyn was in the pocket of Sinn Fein. Leavers would be angry that Sinn Fein were threatening the Brexit the UK voted for and would flock to the Tories.

    And even if Corbyn won the election (not likely), if he were to try to deliver the United Ireland which was the price of Sinn Fein support, it would lead to violent to civil war in Ireland.

    And there he would be, a hopeless old Marxist with an unstable government, completely out of his depth, facing the ruins of Brexit, a divided country, economic turmoil as a result of his policies, a run on the Pound, and a civil war in Ireland.

    Good luck with that Jeremy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.

    Kinnock squeezed the LD vote down from 22% in 1987 under the SDP/Liberal Alliance to 17% in 1992.

    The LD vote has already been squeezed by Labour down to just 7%
    An LD resurgence, however, might hurt them
    Yes the Tories could get a small majority next time if some Labour voters went LD to try and reverse Brexit or get a second referendum even if not a single Labour voter switched to the Tories
    More fantasy. The Tories are much more vulnerable to an LD revival than LAB
    Given most Labour voters voted Remain and most Tory voters voted Leave it is actually Labour who are most at risk of defections to the pro single market and pro second referendum LDs if they are not seen as taking a distinct enough position from the Tories on Brexit.

    It is a UKIP revival the Tories need to fear
    Difficult to determine if UKIP even has a pulse at this time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332
    Brom said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.

    Kinnock squeezed the LD vote down from 22% in 1987 under the SDP/Liberal Alliance to 17% in 1992.

    The LD vote has already been squeezed by Labour down to just 7%
    An LD resurgence, however, might hurt them
    Yes the Tories could get a small majority next time if some Labour voters went LD to try and reverse Brexit or get a second referendum even if not a single Labour voter switched to the Tories
    More fantasy. The Tories are much more vulnerable to an LD revival than LAB
    Given most Labour voters voted Remain and most Tory voters voted Leave it is actually Labour who are most at risk of defections to the pro single market LDs if they are not seen as taking a distinct enough position from the Tories on Brexit
    I also can't help but think the peak Libs tactically voting Lab was exhausted at the last election. I don't see many extra Tory to Lib movers either if there is an opportunity to let Corbyn in. This may well change by 2022 depending on who the leaders are. The Lib Dems only have 13 Tory held seats where they are within a 10% swing so they'll need to up their polling significantly to win all those.
    Yes, a rise in the LD vote is unlikely to win them many more seats but could see some marginal seats move from Labour to Tory
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,859
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    On the why are people obsessed with Brexit but we must never surrender issue. Boredom will be an important part of the Brexit coping mechanism. At a certain point people will be so fed up with Brexit they no longer care about having our own trade deals, a say over the rules we have to implement and Freedom of Movement. They will just want to sign on the dotted line to make it go away. We are not at that point yet.

    Basically we have had 24 months of the EU bullying and berating the Uk. The Irish PM is again today sticking his nose in.

    If people tire - it will be of this foreign elite giving us non stop 24/7 grief - backed by the useful smug idiots of the media, the corporate shills like Soubry and the gormless dolts of the Labour party.

    Luckily Mrs May seems quite patient with these shrieking ninnies - which is to be admired.
    EU in following EU rules and procedures shock.
    They appear to be doing a lot more than that - the more politically inclined people at work have commented on that.

    Still, we knew how they would act - the shame is the people in this country who side with them.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,944
    Floater said:

    https://order-order.com/2018/02/27/compare-contrast-bbc-website-toby-young-labours-new-race-row-hire/

    There does appear to be a slight difference in standards applied by the BBC

    Who would have thought it.

    It's almost as if only one of the parties is actually governing* the country.

    * In theory.
  • stevef said:

    Some Corbyn wankathonystas are getting excited at the prospect of Sinn Fein MPs taking their seats to wreck Brexit and possibly put Corbyn in Downing Street. They breathlessly argue that Sinn Fein MPs would do this in exchange for Corbyn agreeing to a united Ireland.

    Its not impossible to imagine Sinn Fein MPs taking their seats, but just consider the scenario for a moment:

    The Tories would be able to go to the country claiming that Corbyn was in the pocket of Sinn Fein. Leavers would be angry that Sinn Fein were threatening the Brexit the UK voted for and would flock to the Tories.

    And even if Corbyn won the election (not likely), if he were to try to deliver the United Ireland which was the price of Sinn Fein support, it would lead to violent to civil war in Ireland.

    And there he would be, a hopeless old Marxist with an unstable government, completely out of his depth, facing the ruins of Brexit, a divided country, economic turmoil as a result of his policies, a run on the Pound, and a civil war in Ireland.

    Good luck with that Jeremy.

    A united Ireland can only happen via a referendum, as per the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, Corbyn can't deliver a united Ireland, it is not in the power of the Prime Minister.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332
    edited February 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories biggest problem come 2022 (And I do believe it will be a next 2022 GE) is the fact they'll have been in power for 12 years at that point.
    But 1992 I hear you all cry !
    Well whoever leads the Tories 30 years later starts off with 59 less seats... if Corbyn can achieve a '92 swing against - he is definitely PM.

    Kinnock squeezed the LD vote down from 22% in 1987 under the SDP/Liberal Alliance to 17% in 1992.

    The LD vote has already been squeezed by Labour down to just 7%
    An LD resurgence, however, might hurt them
    Yes the Tories could get a small majority next time if some Labour voters went LD to try and reverse Brexit or get a second referendum even if not a single Labour voter switched to the Tories
    More fantasy. The Tories are much more vulnerable to an LD revival than LAB
    Given most Labour voters voted Remain and most Tory voters voted Leave it is actually Labour who are most at risk of defections to the pro single market and pro second referendum LDs if they are not seen as taking a distinct enough position from the Tories on Brexit.

    It is a UKIP revival the Tories need to fear
    Difficult to determine if UKIP even has a pulse at this time.
    All the better for the Tories then. As long as the Tories are seen as delivering on Brexit then UKIP will stay dead
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,054
    edited February 2018
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    calum said:
    Would require a Sinn Fein oath of loyalty to the Queen
    Would be delicious if they took it and then lost the vote ....
    It would indeed but I can't see them doing it
    Indeed- they would have to take their oaths in advance and a last minute concession by the govt to spike their guns would leave them having to either recant or look craven.

    I doubt SF would entertain the risk.
    They won’t. This is just Varadkar scoring points at SF’s expense. And don’t forget that his party is descended from the more moderate IRA faction that agreed to compromise with the British in order to achieve a 26-county state, and which then went on to fight and win a civil war against the hard-line faction that both SF and Fianna Fail are descended from. Sinn Fein and Fine Gael are at the opposite ends of the Irish political spectrum (not counting any genuine Unionists left in the south, if there are any). Irish politics is not like other countries’.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,083
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:
    Is there any workplace where those in power are not seeking to exploit women sexually? It's beginning to feel like that.
    In some places those in power are also seeking to exploit men sexually.
    Fair enough.

    I will rephrase: Is there any workplace where those in power are not seeking to exploit those in a weaker position sexually?
    Loads. We just don't get to hear about them.

    As I've said passim, I ended up dating and marrying someone who I managed on projects. We took it slowly, and made sure both our immediate line managers knew about the relationship, at which point I was not allowed to give official feedback for her appraisals. They knew about our relationship, even if other colleagues did not. Her line manager also regularly chatted to her about the situation (apparently in a kind and unobtrusive manner). It was all very professional.

    We have to allow people to form relationships within companies, even if those relationships are not at the same level in the organisation. But care has to be taken, especially when there is a power disparity (even if a weak one in our case).

    This is the point I've been banging on (fnarr, fnarr) about for ages: the one common thread in all these cases, whether Presidents' Club, Weinstein, Rotherham, or the Catholic church: it's about how we value people who we think are somehow 'below' us. Just because they are poorer than us, or are of a different faith, they are not somehow less valuable as people.

    (BTW, I can never decide where to put the apostrophe in 'Presidents Club', or even if it should have one).
  • But the employees don't make the decisions - these are taken by bean counters, whether in Whitehall or in the private sector.

    Of course there should be fewer types of rolling stock. This would make it easier to transfer trains between parts of the country to meet changing demand and to cascade stock from one area to another. We certainly wouldn't get the nonsense of Class 707s being retired before they've barely entered service or every new type of train having a different coupling system so that they can't work in multiple.

    No. The decisions were made by the TOC and ROSCOs talking about what is required, and coming to an agreement. That's been proven to get a better result than the DfT-led arrangement that Adonis wanted. It's in the ROSCO's interest to make the trains as flexible wrt routes as possible, and the TOCs to get something reliable that the passengers want.

    BR often built stock for specific lines - e.g. the APT for the WCML, class 91 for the ECML, and if I want to be very silly, the Hastings stock for the Hastings line. ;) Different routes can have detailed different requirements - a situation made worse by the fact we now have fixed-unit stock and not the old loco-hauled ones.
    But if (as they are now) you are short of 91s, you can stick a Class 90 on the front of a set of Mark 4s. With the new Mark 5 sleeper sets, with unique couplers, only the modified 92s will be able to work them out of Euston, and 90s will no longer be able to step in. Likewise in Scotland, only the modified 73s will be able to work them, and 67s won't be able to take their place.

    BR-era Pacers and Sprinters can all work together. Not so with the bespoke units ordered since privatisation.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,799

    Scott_P said:
    Theresa May is awesome.

    Though it does look like she is following where Corbyn leads.
    Worth noting that in the article Hardman says she thinks the rumours probably aren't true
    Last time there was a heavily trailed speech from Theresa May, she announced to the G7 that extremism was a bad thing and that someone should do something about the internet. Words to stir a nation.
    To be fair she is doing something about the internet.https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2018/01/uk-government-admits-internet-porn-ban-flawed-continues-anyway.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,480
    @Danny565 is right about the Labour vote and leave/remain. No correlation whatsoever. (r^2 = 0.07)

    For the Tories however there definitely IS. (r^2 England and Wales = 0.627)
    The worst strict Tory performance (-13.1%) was Zac Goldsmith ! (Richmond Park 28.7% leave)
    The best two - Boston & Skegness / Clacton.

    Corbyn OTOH raised his vote everywhere (Except Lib Dem/Tory battlegrounds) - (so definite evidence of anti-Tory tactical voting there).
    Waveney is the only constituency that breaks this rule.

    Scotland OTOH is uncorrelated for the Tories, indicating there were other factors at work there. It's true the result was good in Banff which voted to leave, but by far the best result in terms of upping vote share was in GORDON - which was an utterly extraordinary effort and had zip to do with leave/remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332
    edited February 2018
    rpjs said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    calum said:
    Would require a Sinn Fein oath of loyalty to the Queen
    Would be delicious if they took it and then lost the vote ....
    It would indeed but I can't see them doing it
    Indeed- they would have to take their oaths in advance and a last minute concession by the govt to spike their guns would leave them having to either recant or look craven.

    I doubt SF would entertain the risk.
    They won’t. This is just Varadkar scoring points at SF’s expense. And don’t forget that his party is descended from the more moderate IRA faction that agreed to compromise with the British in order to achieve a 26-county state, and which then went on to fight and win a civil war against the hard-line faction that both SF and Fianna Fail are descended from. Sinn Fein and Fine Gael are at the opposite ends of the Irish political spectrum (not counting any genuine Unionists left in the south, if there are any). Irish politics is not like other countries’.
    Yes, Fine Gail is the party descended from supporters of Michael Collins, Fianna Fail from supporters of Eamonn de Valera in the Irish civil war and Sinn Fein from supporters of Arthur Griffith
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131
    edited February 2018
    Floater said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    On the why are people obsessed with Brexit but we must never surrender issue. Boredom will be an important part of the Brexit coping mechanism. At a certain point people will be so fed up with Brexit they no longer care about having our own trade deals, a say over the rules we have to implement and Freedom of Movement. They will just want to sign on the dotted line to make it go away. We are not at that point yet.

    Basically we have had 24 months of the EU bullying and berating the Uk. The Irish PM is again today sticking his nose in.

    If people tire - it will be of this foreign elite giving us non stop 24/7 grief - backed by the useful smug idiots of the media, the corporate shills like Soubry and the gormless dolts of the Labour party.

    Luckily Mrs May seems quite patient with these shrieking ninnies - which is to be admired.
    EU in following EU rules and procedures shock.
    They appear to be doing a lot more than that - the more politically inclined people at work have commented on that.

    Still, we knew how they would act - the shame is the people in this country who side with them.
    Obviously your work colleagues are not really paying attention.

  • stevef said:

    Some Corbyn wankathonystas are getting excited at the prospect of Sinn Fein MPs taking their seats to wreck Brexit and possibly put Corbyn in Downing Street. They breathlessly argue that Sinn Fein MPs would do this in exchange for Corbyn agreeing to a united Ireland.

    Its not impossible to imagine Sinn Fein MPs taking their seats, but just consider the scenario for a moment:

    The Tories would be able to go to the country claiming that Corbyn was in the pocket of Sinn Fein. Leavers would be angry that Sinn Fein were threatening the Brexit the UK voted for and would flock to the Tories.

    And even if Corbyn won the election (not likely), if he were to try to deliver the United Ireland which was the price of Sinn Fein support, it would lead to violent to civil war in Ireland.

    And there he would be, a hopeless old Marxist with an unstable government, completely out of his depth, facing the ruins of Brexit, a divided country, economic turmoil as a result of his policies, a run on the Pound, and a civil war in Ireland.

    Good luck with that Jeremy.

    I've read some dumb posts on here in my time but this is particularly stupid. Voting for Corbyn will now lead to civil war in Ireland will it?!

    So firstly, every political party now accepts that a united Ireland will only come about through the democratic wish of those in the North. The latest polling I have seen shows not only a strong majority in the North in favour of staying in the UK, but also a plurality of Catholics are also in favour. There isn't a cat in hells chance Corbyn would grant Irish unity without a democratic mandate, not least because the Irish republic probably don't want it either!
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,425

    tpfkar said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    calum said:
    Would require a Sinn Fein oath of loyalty to the Queen
    Would be delicious if they took it and then lost the vote ....
    It would indeed but I can't see them doing it
    Indeed- they would have to take their oaths in advance and a last minute concession by the govt to spike their guns would leave them having to either recant or look craven.

    I doubt SF would entertain the risk.
    But it's just one more risk for the government to have to take on board - the pressure comes from not actually having to follow through. If they did, it would be pretty obvious what was going on.

    (Side query. Suppose something tragic happened to Her Majesty. Would the Shinners be able to sign in as MPs, on the basis that there would be no monarch to swear allegiance to? Or would Charles have a formal status immediately, before the Coronation?)
    New Sovereign's proclaimed immediately isn’t he? Or she? IIRC Elizabeth was told in Kenya that she was now Queen.
    Thanks OKC and Cyclefree. Thought it would be something like that.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Imagine there's no Corbyn,
    Its easy if you try,
    A mainstream Labour leader,
    The polls would go sky high.

    Imagine a Labour leader,
    without a Marxist creed,
    Imagine an opposition leader
    Competent and fit to lead.

    You may say I'm a dreamer
    but I'm not the only one,
    One day soon I hope it will happen,
    And then the election's won.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,217
    As I said a few weeks ago on here, I have no problem with SF MPs actually becoming proper MPs and doing the jobs they were elected to do. I am perfectly comfortable changes to the swearing in procedures being made - they are purely ceremonial.

    It is wrong that there are electors in NI who do not have proper representation in Westminster. But SF MPs are not there just as representatives of their party. They are supposed to represent all the electors in their constituencies.

    Taking up their seats now, however, would look too calculated. But they should be there from the start of the next Parliament.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    "It's a loosely associated trading club"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/27/eu-will-fight-keep-northern-ireland-subject-eu-law-brexit-says/

    Guy Verhofstadt declared on Tuesday the European Parliament would fight to ensure that Northern Ireland remains subject to EU law after Brexit
  • stevef said:

    I've read some dumb posts on here in my time but this is particularly stupid. Voting for Corbyn will now lead to civil war in Ireland will it?!

    So firstly, every political party now accepts that a united Ireland will only come about through the democratic wish of those in the North. The latest polling I have seen shows not only a strong majority in the North in favour of staying in the UK, but also a plurality of Catholics are also in favour. There isn't a cat in hells chance Corbyn would grant Irish unity without a democratic mandate, not least because the Irish republic probably don't want it either!
    Stevef is wrong.

    The war criminal Tony Blair won a majority, Corbyn launching a civil war in Ireland won't be damaging Corbyn's electoral prospects.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,054

    (BTW, I can never decide where to put the apostrophe in 'Presidents Club', or even if it should have one).

    1) Presidents Club: a club consisting solely of Presidents.

    2) Presidents’ Club: a club run by or for multiple Presidents.

    3) President’s Club: a club run by or for a single President.

    In the context 3) seems most likely to me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,841
    TGOHF said:

    "It's a loosely associated trading club"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/27/eu-will-fight-keep-northern-ireland-subject-eu-law-brexit-says/

    Guy Verhofstadt declared on Tuesday the European Parliament would fight to ensure that Northern Ireland remains subject to EU law after Brexit

    Who are you quoting? The phrase has no results on Google so I assume it's only the voices in your head.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945

    As I said a few weeks ago on here, I have no problem with SF MPs actually becoming proper MPs and doing the jobs they were elected to do. I am perfectly comfortable changes to the swearing in procedures being made - they are purely ceremonial.

    It is wrong that there are electors in NI who do not have proper representation in Westminster. But SF MPs are not there just as representatives of their party. They are supposed to represent all the electors in their constituencies.

    Taking up their seats now, however, would look too calculated. But they should be there from the start of the next Parliament.

    They don't have the minerals to swear allegiance to the Queen.

    They fear their supporters will see it as one more surrender.
  • As I said a few weeks ago on here, I have no problem with SF MPs actually becoming proper MPs and doing the jobs they were elected to do. I am perfectly comfortable changes to the swearing in procedures being made - they are purely ceremonial.

    It is wrong that there are electors in NI who do not have proper representation in Westminster. But SF MPs are not there just as representatives of their party. They are supposed to represent all the electors in their constituencies.

    Taking up their seats now, however, would look too calculated. But they should be there from the start of the next Parliament.

    If SF wanted a way around this conundrum their Westminster MP's could resign en mass and force by-elections in all of their seats, and allow independent pro-customs union nationalists to run or the SDLP. This would give the customs union backers the extra MP's without SF having to compromise their principles.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945

    TGOHF said:

    "It's a loosely associated trading club"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/27/eu-will-fight-keep-northern-ireland-subject-eu-law-brexit-says/

    Guy Verhofstadt declared on Tuesday the European Parliament would fight to ensure that Northern Ireland remains subject to EU law after Brexit

    Who are you quoting? The phrase has no results on Google so I assume it's only the voices in your head.
    Many posters on here before and during the referendum.

    Not you of course william - we know your dream of a single European state with no elections.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,083

    But the employees don't make the decisions - these are taken by bean counters, whether in Whitehall or in the private sector.

    Of course there should be fewer types of rolling stock. This would make it easier to transfer trains between parts of the country to meet changing demand and to cascade stock from one area to another. We certainly wouldn't get the nonsense of Class 707s being retired before they've barely entered service or every new type of train having a different coupling system so that they can't work in multiple.

    No. The decisions were made by the TOC and ROSCOs talking about what is required, and coming to an agreement. That's been proven to get a better result than the DfT-led arrangement that Adonis wanted. It's in the ROSCO's interest to make the trains as flexible wrt routes as possible, and the TOCs to get something reliable that the passengers want.

    BR often built stock for specific lines - e.g. the APT for the WCML, class 91 for the ECML, and if I want to be very silly, the Hastings stock for the Hastings line. ;) Different routes can have detailed different requirements - a situation made worse by the fact we now have fixed-unit stock and not the old loco-hauled ones.
    But if (as they are now) you are short of 91s, you can stick a Class 90 on the front of a set of Mark 4s. With the new Mark 5 sleeper sets, with unique couplers, only the modified 92s will be able to work them out of Euston, and 90s will no longer be able to step in. Likewise in Scotland, only the modified 73s will be able to work them, and 67s won't be able to take their place.

    BR-era Pacers and Sprinters can all work together. Not so with the bespoke units ordered since privatisation.
    AIUI not all Sprinters and Pacers are operable together? Besides, this is something that can easily be addressed not by forcing operators to have the same trains, but by having interoperability standards.

    Say, the European Technical Standards for Interoperability ? ;)

    You'll have been around long enough to remember that BR also had significant problems with this, to the extent there were a plethora of standards, e.g. red circle or blue star. They then mostly moved to a ?BSI? standard. All the DfT has to do is ask manufacturers to enforce a suitable standard.

    There's more than one way to solve a problem, and having the DfT 'design' trains is stupid.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,841
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    "It's a loosely associated trading club"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/27/eu-will-fight-keep-northern-ireland-subject-eu-law-brexit-says/

    Guy Verhofstadt declared on Tuesday the European Parliament would fight to ensure that Northern Ireland remains subject to EU law after Brexit

    Who are you quoting? The phrase has no results on Google so I assume it's only the voices in your head.
    Many posters on here before and during the referendum.

    Not you of course william - we know your dream of a single European state with no elections.
    Boris Johnson is now advocating it too. He thinks European nations should be just like London boroughs. Can you believe it? ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,083
    rpjs said:

    (BTW, I can never decide where to put the apostrophe in 'Presidents Club', or even if it should have one).

    1) Presidents Club: a club consisting solely of Presidents.

    2) Presidents’ Club: a club run by or for multiple Presidents.

    3) President’s Club: a club run by or for a single President.

    In the context 3) seems most likely to me.
    Thanks. From their rather apologetic website, it looks as if they used 1).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771
    Pulpstar said:

    @Danny565 is right about the Labour vote and leave/remain. No correlation whatsoever. (r^2 = 0.07)

    For the Tories however there definitely IS. (r^2 England and Wales = 0.627)
    The worst strict Tory performance (-13.1%) was Zac Goldsmith ! (Richmond Park 28.7% leave)
    The best two - Boston & Skegness / Clacton.

    Corbyn OTOH raised his vote everywhere (Except Lib Dem/Tory battlegrounds) - (so definite evidence of anti-Tory tactical voting there).
    Waveney is the only constituency that breaks this rule.

    Scotland OTOH is uncorrelated for the Tories, indicating there were other factors at work there. It's true the result was good in Banff which voted to leave, but by far the best result in terms of upping vote share was in GORDON - which was an utterly extraordinary effort and had zip to do with leave/remain.

    The wost strict Tory performance was Zac Goldsmith - because he was a pillock who called a by-election on a "back me or sack me" agenda. In the current mood of anti-politics, "sack me" was the inevitable outcome.

    And yet he is still the MP.
  • Interesting that Barnier has just rejected both Corbyn and Fox's proposals and indicated he is only interested in what the TM says
  • NEW THREAD

  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    "It's a loosely associated trading club"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/27/eu-will-fight-keep-northern-ireland-subject-eu-law-brexit-says/

    Guy Verhofstadt declared on Tuesday the European Parliament would fight to ensure that Northern Ireland remains subject to EU law after Brexit

    Who are you quoting? The phrase has no results on Google so I assume it's only the voices in your head.
    Many posters on here before and during the referendum.

    Not you of course william - we know your dream of a single European state with no elections.
    Boris Johnson is now advocating it too. He thinks European nations should be just like London boroughs. Can you believe it? ;)
    Of course he is not. He was talking about the ease of crossing borders
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 591

    Andrew said:

    Seems rather as if the EU is willing to take significant economic damage, for ideological reasons.

    Given what happened with Greece this probably shouldn't be surprising.

    Seems rather as if the UK is willing to take significant economic damage, for ideological reasons.
    The EU's deficit on trading goods and services with the UK amounts to 0.5% of their combined GDP - hardly significant.

    The total value of imports from the EU is 2.5% of the EU-27's GDP but our exports to them represent 10% of the UK's GDP.
  • sarissa said:

    Andrew said:

    Seems rather as if the EU is willing to take significant economic damage, for ideological reasons.

    Given what happened with Greece this probably shouldn't be surprising.

    Seems rather as if the UK is willing to take significant economic damage, for ideological reasons.
    The EU's deficit on trading goods and services with the UK amounts to 0.5% of their combined GDP - hardly significant.

    The total value of imports from the EU is 2.5% of the EU-27's GDP but our exports to them represent 10% of the UK's GDP.

    If the Uk replaced the EU imports (2.5% of EU GDP) with local UK production, it would more than make up for our lost exports to the EU. UK GDP would increase.

    I am not advocating doing that though because free markets are better for everyone since the most efficient producers prevail and overall wealth is increased.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,792
    edited February 2018
    Imagine if Liz Kendall,
    had not been Tory Lite,
    Imagine if she had policies,
    that were not totally shite.

    Imagine if Ms Cooper,
    had opposed austerity,
    instead she could not give preference
    For Coffee or for tea.

    Imagine if the PLP
    had got behind our leader,
    instead they tried to undermine,
    And make our chances weaker.

    The appeal of our Jezz
    Was there for all to see
    and now Ms Strong and Stable
    has no majority
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,792
    Can recommend Game Night

    Very funny film

    The only downside

    It closed with this



    Which 16 hours later i am still singing much to the annoyance of Mrs BJ
  • TGOHF said:

    "It's a loosely associated trading club"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/27/eu-will-fight-keep-northern-ireland-subject-eu-law-brexit-says/

    Guy Verhofstadt declared on Tuesday the European Parliament would fight to ensure that Northern Ireland remains subject to EU law after Brexit


    Perhaps the EU will decide to change its law to ensure Northern Ireland complies with whatever is agreed with the UK..
This discussion has been closed.