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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the 7 Sinn Fein MPs take their seats TMay’s future & possib

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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    philiph said:

    Mr. Dao, that does seem likely.

    The chattering classes will gleefully rejoice. The electorate's decision will be treated with contempt. And the poisonous political atmosphere will become much worse.

    Such a situation would be similar to Lisbon, and the reneging of manifesto pledges for a referendum. Only much more severe.

    I fear a terrible mistake is about to made with profound consequences for the health of our body politic. Perhaps I'm wrong. But my suggestion of how we might leave in name only, or have a terrible deal deliberately negotiated to facilitate a second referendum, is looking reasonably prescient.

    Th 'electorate's decision' was a sort of 'suppose on balance we should Leave assuming there won't be any problems and we get the £350million/week'.
    I suspect it was based on stronger views, information, feelings and emotions than that.
    I was referring to the overall electorate which split very evenly.
    So was I!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    There are 6 Sinn Fein MPs at the moment because the West Tyrone MP resigned.
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    Mr. B, also, a major question is how good the McLaren will be.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,557

    Mr. B, also, a major question is how good the McLaren will be.

    Not challenging for wins in the first half of the season, I think. And first they have to beat Renault, who look quite tasty.
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    Pulpstar said:

    A thought although unlikely.

    Sinn Fein recognises that a hard border would be bad for Ireland.
    Sinn Fein do not take seats at Westminster and never will.
    Sinn Fein recognises that the circumstances are unique.

    All Sinn Fein Westminster MPs resign asking their supporters to vote SDLP in the ensuing by-elections. Sinn Fein will re-stand at the next Westminster GE.

    SDLP 2017 manifesto said "Only the SDLP can fight a hard Brexit and a hard border after this election."

    Now assume there are 7 SDLP MPs at Westminster.

    Not going to happen is it. Is it?

    Odds against..

    The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one.....
    Agreed. Highly unlikely.

    If Mrs May wins the "a customs union" amendment by 3 votes there will be a few border communities in Sinn Fein held seats thinking "Oops" or slightly stronger words.
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    Mr. B, McLaren had a good chassis last year, but assessing it was difficult because of the engine problems.

    Not convinced Renault can challenge much this year. They've got a good platform for the long term but the time to change things around is pretty short.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Mr. 565, that's a fair qualification.

    Voting to leave the EU then having the EU responsible for our customs, particularly on the disadvantageous Turkish model, would be wretched. If you can find polling whereby people approve of us having no control and the EU dictating our customs, and third party countries getting preferential trade with us but the UK not benefiting on a reciprocal basis, then fair enough.

    As a starter, there's this, from the definitive election analysts, on people's main reasons for Brexit:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/928359937310384128

    You can just about see "trade", if you really zoom in; it was cited by approximately 3% of the number of people who cited "immigration". This does not exactly seem to me like one of the main catalysts of the Leave vote, and thus that it would be anti-democratic or showing "contempt" for Leave voters just because it wasn't delivered on.

    As a sidenote, who is proposing that Britain should have the Turkish model for a customs union? I find it extraordinary that some Brexiteers have gone from accusing people of "talking Britain down" if they say Britain won't be able to get absolutely everything their own way in the negotiations, to now saying that Britain wouldn't be able to strike a tougher deal even than Turkey on the CU if we so desired.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,332



    This always strikes me as a "tail wagging the dog" kind of issue although I do appreciate that there are political implications. But even there I keep asking myself whether the DUP will ever do anything that might smack of support for Corbyn.

    This will be the DUP who actually formed a coalition with Sinn Fein? Northern Irish politics always seems to consist of absolute "Never!" commitments which sometimes change overnight. But I agree it's not very likely.
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    Mr. 565, sovereignty and control loom large there.
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    AndyJS said:

    There are 6 Sinn Fein MPs at the moment because the West Tyrone MP resigned.

    credit where it is due Andy that point is covered in the header
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Mr. 565, sovereignty and control loom large there.

    But "trade" doesn't....

    Since people were perfectly able to specify "immigration", even though that could theoretically also come under the "sovereignty" and "control" banners, why wouldn't they have felt able to specify "trade" if it really was one of the things at the front of their mind like you claim it is?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    There are 6 Sinn Fein MPs at the moment because the West Tyrone MP resigned.

    credit where it is due Andy that point is covered in the header
    I wonder why the by-election hasn't been called yet.
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    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Mr. Dao, that does seem likely.

    The chattering classes will gleefully rejoice. The electorate's decision will be treated with contempt. And the poisonous political atmosphere will become much worse.

    Such a situation would be similar to Lisbon, and the reneging of manifesto pledges for a referendum. Only much more severe.

    I fear a terrible mistake is about to made with profound consequences for the health of our body politic. Perhaps I'm wrong. But my suggestion of how we might leave in name only, or have a terrible deal deliberately negotiated to facilitate a second referendum, is looking reasonably prescient.

    Th 'electorate's decision' was a sort of 'suppose on balance we should Leave assuming there won't be any problems and we get the £350million/week'.
    I suspect it was based on stronger views, information, feelings and emotions than that.
    I was referring to the overall electorate which split very evenly.
    So was I!
    I suppose that that makes sense to you.
    The electorate decided 52:48 so rather half-heartedly, wholeheartedly would be something like 70:30. Of course I accept that individuals had strong views but the overall electorate - nah.
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    Mr. 565, that does make you sound a teensy bit like Captain Finickitypants.

    And I write that as a man who, a short time earlier, corrected a poster who used 'less than' rather than 'fewer than'.

    If someone says they're into bondage and domination, it's a safe bet they're into sado-masochism, even if they haven't used that precise term.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Danny565 said:

    Mr. 565, that's a fair qualification.

    Voting to leave the EU then having the EU responsible for our customs, particularly on the disadvantageous Turkish model, would be wretched. If you can find polling whereby people approve of us having no control and the EU dictating our customs, and third party countries getting preferential trade with us but the UK not benefiting on a reciprocal basis, then fair enough.

    As a starter, there's this, from the definitive election analysts, on people's main reasons for Brexit:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/928359937310384128

    You can just about see "trade", if you really zoom in; it was cited by approximately 3% of the number of people who cited "immigration". This does not exactly seem to me like one of the main catalysts of the Leave vote, and thus that it would be anti-democratic or showing "contempt" for Leave voters just because it wasn't delivered on.

    As a sidenote, who is proposing that Britain should have the Turkish model for a customs union? I find it extraordinary that some Brexiteers have gone from accusing people of "talking Britain down" if they say Britain won't be able to get absolutely everything their own way in the negotiations, to now saying that Britain wouldn't be able to strike a tougher deal even than Turkey on the CU if we so desired.
    How happily will Immigration/ CU/ cherry picking sit together?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2018

    Mr. 565, that does make you sound a teensy bit like Captain Finickitypants.

    And I write that as a man who, a short time earlier, corrected a poster who used 'less than' rather than 'fewer than'.

    If someone says they're into bondage and domination, it's a safe bet they're into sado-masochism, even if they haven't used that precise term.

    That's not an answer to my question about why "immigration" was cited so often, but "trade" wasn't. :)
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312



    This always strikes me as a "tail wagging the dog" kind of issue although I do appreciate that there are political implications. But even there I keep asking myself whether the DUP will ever do anything that might smack of support for Corbyn.

    This will be the DUP who actually formed a coalition with Sinn Fein? Northern Irish politics always seems to consist of absolute "Never!" commitments which sometimes change overnight. But I agree it's not very likely.
    I'm not sure your example is analogous
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    daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    edited February 2018
    rpjs said:



    Why would maintaining the CTA not be possible post- hard Brexit? There was a customs border in Ireland for most of the CTA's history, and at times it was quite rigorously enforced. Or are we back to needing to stop Polish plumbers from sneaking back into Great Britain through Northern Ireland?

    The EU requires that external borders are hard for the passage of both people and goods unless there are appropriate agreements in place. Before 1973 when Eire and the UK simultaneously joined the then EEC, there was a CTA, but with customs posts on the border.

    The border even pre-1973 was somewhat porous. My late uncle, who was a sales rep for a clothing manufacturer, used to do a lot of business in Derrylin, Co Fermanagh - this small village close to Co Cavan is sadly in the news today because of a house fire tragedy.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,988
    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Any Tory MP contemplating walking through the division lobbies with Jeremy Corbyn and Sinn Fein in order to break a manifesto commitment might want to consider how this will go down with their constituency association.

    Tory MPs in 1992/93 broke a manifesto commitment and voted with Jeremy Corbyn on a regular basis.
    True, but in that instance I doubt the constituency associations minded too much.
    They were traitors who helped enable thirteen years of a Labour government.
    Sling 'em out! Starting with Hannan who also collaborated with UKIP.
    There would not be much left of the Conservative Party if you removed the eurosceptics.
    That's wrong. There are several different strands: the europhiles, the eurosceptics, and the europhobes. The eurosceptics are the ones who are not necessarily against EU membership, and think it may give advantages, but also have complaints and issues with it.

    Hannan is firmly in the europhobe camp, not eurosceptic. They are much fewer in number.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    JonathanD said:


    To leave the EU and then have it responsible for our customs is to treat the decision to leave with contempt.

    There is no evidence that at the time of the vote, a majority of Leave voters thought leaving the EU meant leaving the Customs Union.

    https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/967425658338136065

    At the time of the vote, the majority of voter had not even heard of the Customs Union!
    How do you classify Leaver voters who wanted to leave the CU but expected that Remainers would find a way to stitch them up so we stayed?
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    Mr. 565, that does make you sound a teensy bit like Captain Finickitypants.

    And I write that as a man who, a short time earlier, corrected a poster who used 'less than' rather than 'fewer than'.

    If someone says they're into bondage and domination, it's a safe bet they're into sado-masochism, even if they haven't used that precise term.

    Bondage and domination are different to sado masochism.

    I might like a woman to be verbally abusive towards me but not leave a physical mark on me.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960

    To leave the EU and then have it responsible for our customs is to treat the decision to leave with contempt.

    The one area where Mr Tyndall and I disagree is on whether there are a large number of countries outside the EU which are desperate for free trade, but which have been stopped by the evil Commission.

    My view is that there are not (although there are exceptions, such as Australia), and that we are leaving a great many existing EU agreements behind. (Such as the ones with Mercosur, South Africa, Israel, Canada, South Korea, much of sub-Saharan Africa etc.)

    The goal of leaving the EU to sign hundreds of FTAs with countries rebuffed by the EU is a chimera.

    Now, my preferred option would be to largely solve the issue by joining EFTA (whose FTA list is almost identical to the EU's, with the exception of not being quite so strong in Africa, but having actually completed an agreement with the GCC). But Dr Fox has ruled out joining EFTA (not EFTA/EEA, simply EFTA), for reasons known only to himself and his closest advisor (a small, imaginary, pig named Gerald).

    If EFTA is off the table, then why not stay in the customs union in the medium term? It saves us a decade of replicating work that has already been done. It gives us control over our laws, and of immigration. Make it time limited (five or seven years) if you are concerned that it is staying in by another name (and which at least forces us to re-examine it), but it seems an odd sticking point.

    There's another advantage to the customs unions: Rules of Origin. Today, an Aston Martin exported to South Korea incurs no tariff. If we exit the EU's customs union, and sign our own free trade agreement with Korea, then there is the very real risk that tariffs will be imposed. Why? Because Aston Martin's contain a mix of British and EU parts. While I don't know the mix today, I would be very surprised if the UK's content share exceeded the 60% required to be covered by a Korean FTA. (And exporting from the EU to Korea wouldn't work either, as it would not reach 60% EU content either.)

    Now: I'm not saying the EU customs union is perfect. It's clearly not. It means a diminution of our sovereignty. But all things are relative: it does not affect our ability to control our immigration policy, and it does not involve the ECJ ruling on the franchise. It would be better to join EFTA than to stay in the customs union. But if we choose to do neither, then we are likely to significantly worsen our terms of trade with everyone else in the world. And if we worsen our terms of trade with everyone, then there isn't going to be £350m available every week for the NHS.
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    Mr. Eagles, bondage involves being bound. Physically.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,977

    Mr. 565, that does make you sound a teensy bit like Captain Finickitypants.

    And I write that as a man who, a short time earlier, corrected a poster who used 'less than' rather than 'fewer than'.

    If someone says they're into bondage and domination, it's a safe bet they're into sado-masochism, even if they haven't used that precise term.

    Bondage and domination are different to sado masochism.

    I might like a woman to be verbally abusive towards me but not leave a physical mark on me.
    I understand that in some quarters that describes marriage.

    Not mine, I’m happy to say.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Mr. Dao, that does seem likely.

    The chattering classes will gleefully rejoice. The electorate's decision will be treated with contempt. And the poisonous political atmosphere will become much worse.

    Such a situation would be similar to Lisbon, and the reneging of manifesto pledges for a referendum. Only much more severe.

    I fear a terrible mistake is about to made with profound consequences for the health of our body politic. Perhaps I'm wrong. But my suggestion of how we might leave in name only, or have a terrible deal deliberately negotiated to facilitate a second referendum, is looking reasonably prescient.

    Th 'electorate's decision' was a sort of 'suppose on balance we should Leave assuming there won't be any problems and we get the £350million/week'.
    I suspect it was based on stronger views, information, feelings and emotions than that.
    I was referring to the overall electorate which split very evenly.
    So was I!
    I suppose that that makes sense to you.
    The electorate decided 52:48 so rather half-heartedly, wholeheartedly would be something like 70:30. Of course I accept that individuals had strong views but the overall electorate - nah.
    My mistake, I was taking your original point as individual rather than electorate.
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    Mr. Eagles, bondage involves being bound. Physically.

    Yes, but being bound with say handcuffs doesn’t leave marks.
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    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Mr. Dao, that does seem likely.

    The chattering classes will gleefully rejoice. The electorate's decision will be treated with contempt. And the poisonous political atmosphere will become much worse.

    Such a situation would be similar to Lisbon, and the reneging of manifesto pledges for a referendum. Only much more severe.

    I fear a terrible mistake is about to made with profound consequences for the health of our body politic. Perhaps I'm wrong. But my suggestion of how we might leave in name only, or have a terrible deal deliberately negotiated to facilitate a second referendum, is looking reasonably prescient.

    Th 'electorate's decision' was a sort of 'suppose on balance we should Leave assuming there won't be any problems and we get the £350million/week'.
    I suspect it was based on stronger views, information, feelings and emotions than that.
    I was referring to the overall electorate which split very evenly.
    So was I!
    I suppose that that makes sense to you.
    The electorate decided 52:48 so rather half-heartedly, wholeheartedly would be something like 70:30. Of course I accept that individuals had strong views but the overall electorate - nah.
    It was actually 51.8 to 48.2
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    Mr. Eagles, depends how roughly/tightly they're applied.

    Also, sadism and masochism aren't purely physical. I'd condemn you as an ignoramus, but given the conversation I fear you'd enjoy it.
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    Mr. 565, that does make you sound a teensy bit like Captain Finickitypants.

    And I write that as a man who, a short time earlier, corrected a poster who used 'less than' rather than 'fewer than'.

    If someone says they're into bondage and domination, it's a safe bet they're into sado-masochism, even if they haven't used that precise term.

    Bondage and domination are different to sado masochism.

    I might like a woman to be verbally abusive towards me but not leave a physical mark on me.
    I understand that in some quarters that describes marriage.

    Not mine, I’m happy to say.
    Indeed. If I wanted to give all my money to an abusive woman who sexually frustrated me I’d get married again.
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    Mr. Eagles, depends how roughly/tightly they're applied.

    Also, sadism and masochism aren't purely physical. I'd condemn you as an ignoramus, but given the conversation I fear you'd enjoy it.

    I wrote a PB thread header about hiring 400 dominatrices concurrently.

    Beat that.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,977

    Mr. Eagles, bondage involves being bound. Physically.

    Yes, but being bound with say handcuffs doesn’t leave marks.
    Pink fluffy ones?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    edited February 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    To leave the EU and then have it responsible for our customs is to treat the decision to leave with contempt.

    Now, my preferred option would be to largely solve the issue by joining EFTA (whose FTA list is almost identical to the EU's, with the exception of not being quite so strong in Africa, but having actually completed an agreement with the GCC). But Dr Fox has ruled out joining EFTA (not EFTA/EEA, simply EFTA), for reasons known only to himself and his closest advisor (a small, imaginary, pig named Gerald).
    This is a fantasy. Joining EFTA would not give automatic access to the EU or to third countries with FTAs with EFTA. It's not a shortcut to anything but free trade within EFTA.
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    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Mr. Dao, that does seem likely.

    The chattering classes will gleefully rejoice. The electorate's decision will be treated with contempt. And the poisonous political atmosphere will become much worse.

    Such a situation would be similar to Lisbon, and the reneging of manifesto pledges for a referendum. Only much more severe.

    I fear a terrible mistake is about to made with profound consequences for the health of our body politic. Perhaps I'm wrong. But my suggestion of how we might leave in name only, or have a terrible deal deliberately negotiated to facilitate a second referendum, is looking reasonably prescient.

    Th 'electorate's decision' was a sort of 'suppose on balance we should Leave assuming there won't be any problems and we get the £350million/week'.
    I suspect it was based on stronger views, information, feelings and emotions than that.
    I was referring to the overall electorate which split very evenly.
    So was I!
    I suppose that that makes sense to you.
    The electorate decided 52:48 so rather half-heartedly, wholeheartedly would be something like 70:30. Of course I accept that individuals had strong views but the overall electorate - nah.
    It was actually 51.8 to 48.2
    The Welsh Referendum of 1997 was 50.3 to 49.7....
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    Mr. Eagles, beat yourself.

    ....

    ;)

    [Next time you're in Sweden, ask for a harskarinna].

    On a serious note, Sir Edric's paramour is a sado-masochist, which led to some nice moments. At one point, in Kingdom, he awakes up shirtless and strapped to a diagonal cross, and can't recall if he's been abducted or Corkwell was just in a frisky mood.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960

    A thought although unlikely.

    Sinn Fein recognises that a hard border would be bad for Ireland.
    Sinn Fein do not take seats at Westminster and never will.
    Sinn Fein recognises that the circumstances are unique.

    All Sinn Fein Westminster MPs resign asking their supporters to vote SDLP in the ensuing by-elections. Sinn Fein will re-stand at the next Westminster GE.

    SDLP 2017 manifesto said "Only the SDLP can fight a hard Brexit and a hard border after this election."

    Now assume there are 7 SDLP MPs at Westminster.

    Not going to happen is it. Is it?

    To help you out here, no it isn't going to happen.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Leo Varadkar is leader of Fine Gael though, quite a distance from Sinn Fein politically.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Civil_War :innocent:
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    edited February 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    [...]
    Now, my preferred option would be to largely solve the issue by joining EFTA (whose FTA list is almost identical to the EU's, with the exception of not being quite so strong in Africa, but having actually completed an agreement with the GCC). But Dr Fox has ruled out joining EFTA (not EFTA/EEA, simply EFTA), for reasons known only to himself and his closest advisor (a small, imaginary, pig named Gerald). [...]

    My guess, and it is just a guess, is that third countries won't be willing to roll over EFTA agreements for the UK. EFTA doesn't actually have FTAs with third countries in the same way the EU does. It is a broker that acts on behalf of members, who can if both parties agree adopt the negotiated treaty for their bilateral arrangement. Third parties who have negotiated these deals on the understanding they might apply to one small country and two tiny ones might want a renegotiation with the much larger UK. Also mucking around with existing schedules seriously complicates the UK's WTO status because of existing MFN obligations in place due to the UK's membership of the EU. Finally, the UK may not want EFTA deals if they think existing ones are better.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960

    rcs1000 said:

    To leave the EU and then have it responsible for our customs is to treat the decision to leave with contempt.

    Now, my preferred option would be to largely solve the issue by joining EFTA (whose FTA list is almost identical to the EU's, with the exception of not being quite so strong in Africa, but having actually completed an agreement with the GCC). But Dr Fox has ruled out joining EFTA (not EFTA/EEA, simply EFTA), for reasons known only to himself and his closest advisor (a small, imaginary, pig named Gerald).
    This is a fantasy. Joining EFTA would not give automatic access to the EU or to third countries with FTAs with EFTA. It's not a shortcut to anything but free trade within EFTA.
    If we joined EFTA, then EFTA's own agreements would need codicils attached to them. But because dispute resolution mechanisms would remain unchanged (unlike with transitioning EU deals to the UK), this should be fairly routine.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Mr. Dao, that does seem likely.

    The chattering classes will gleefully rejoice. The electorate's decision will be treated with contempt. And the poisonous political atmosphere will become much worse.

    Such a situation would be similar to Lisbon, and the reneging of manifesto pledges for a referendum. Only much more severe.

    I fear a terrible mistake is about to made with profound consequences for the health of our body politic. Perhaps I'm wrong. But my suggestion of how we might leave in name only, or have a terrible deal deliberately negotiated to facilitate a second referendum, is looking reasonably prescient.

    Th 'electorate's decision' was a sort of 'suppose on balance we should Leave assuming there won't be any problems and we get the £350million/week'.
    I suspect it was based on stronger views, information, feelings and emotions than that.
    I was referring to the overall electorate which split very evenly.
    So was I!
    I suppose that that makes sense to you.
    The electorate decided 52:48 so rather half-heartedly, wholeheartedly would be something like 70:30. Of course I accept that individuals had strong views but the overall electorate - nah.
    It was actually 51.8 to 48.2
    pedant
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    Mr. Tyndall, what if an MP votes against their manifesto?

    Then that is a matter between the MP and their constituents. Ideally we would have a system of Recall to allow them to be held to account as soon as possible but without that they will just havevto wait until the next election.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Pulpstar said:

    A thought although unlikely.

    Sinn Fein recognises that a hard border would be bad for Ireland.
    Sinn Fein do not take seats at Westminster and never will.
    Sinn Fein recognises that the circumstances are unique.

    All Sinn Fein Westminster MPs resign asking their supporters to vote SDLP in the ensuing by-elections. Sinn Fein will re-stand at the next Westminster GE.

    SDLP 2017 manifesto said "Only the SDLP can fight a hard Brexit and a hard border after this election."

    Now assume there are 7 SDLP MPs at Westminster.

    Not going to happen is it. Is it?

    Odds against..

    The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one.....
    .....and still they came. [fine piece of music]
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,269
    edited February 2018

    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Mr. Dao, that does seem likely.

    The chattering classes will gleefully rejoice. The electorate's decision will be treated with contempt. And the poisonous political atmosphere will become much worse.

    Such a situation would be similar to Lisbon, and the reneging of manifesto pledges for a referendum. Only much more severe.

    I fear a terrible mistake is about to made with profound consequences for the health of our body politic. Perhaps I'm wrong. But my suggestion of how we might leave in name only, or have a terrible deal deliberately negotiated to facilitate a second referendum, is looking reasonably prescient.

    Th 'electorate's decision' was a sort of 'suppose on balance we should Leave assuming there won't be any problems and we get the £350million/week'.
    I suspect it was based on stronger views, information, feelings and emotions than that.
    I was referring to the overall electorate which split very evenly.
    So was I!
    I suppose that that makes sense to you.
    The electorate decided 52:48 so rather half-heartedly, wholeheartedly would be something like 70:30. Of course I accept that individuals had strong views but the overall electorate - nah.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/

    image
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    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Any Tory MP contemplating walking through the division lobbies with Jeremy Corbyn and Sinn Fein in order to break a manifesto commitment might want to consider how this will go down with their constituency association.

    Tory MPs in 1992/93 broke a manifesto commitment and voted with Jeremy Corbyn on a regular basis.
    True, but in that instance I doubt the constituency associations minded too much.
    They were traitors who helped enable thirteen years of a Labour government.
    Nope. It was Major himself who caused his own downfall by pushing us into the ERM when he was Chancellor. There was a sweet irony that he was also the one left holding that particular bomb when it went off.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546

    A thought although unlikely.

    Sinn Fein recognises that a hard border would be bad for Ireland.
    Sinn Fein do not take seats at Westminster and never will.
    Sinn Fein recognises that the circumstances are unique.

    All Sinn Fein Westminster MPs resign asking their supporters to vote SDLP in the ensuing by-elections. Sinn Fein will re-stand at the next Westminster GE.

    SDLP 2017 manifesto said "Only the SDLP can fight a hard Brexit and a hard border after this election."

    Now assume there are 7 SDLP MPs at Westminster.

    Not going to happen is it. Is it?

    Can't see it. But the Fermanagh and Tyrone by-election hasn't been called yet as far as I know. If SF didn't nominate but endorsed SDLP along those lines, perhaps with an arrangement that the new MP would themself stand down in a year? Not very plausible but perhaps more feasible than a mass set of resignations?
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    tpfkar said:

    A thought although unlikely.

    Sinn Fein recognises that a hard border would be bad for Ireland.
    Sinn Fein do not take seats at Westminster and never will.
    Sinn Fein recognises that the circumstances are unique.

    All Sinn Fein Westminster MPs resign asking their supporters to vote SDLP in the ensuing by-elections. Sinn Fein will re-stand at the next Westminster GE.

    SDLP 2017 manifesto said "Only the SDLP can fight a hard Brexit and a hard border after this election."

    Now assume there are 7 SDLP MPs at Westminster.

    Not going to happen is it. Is it?

    Can't see it. But the Fermanagh and Tyrone by-election hasn't been called yet as far as I know. If SF didn't nominate but endorsed SDLP along those lines, perhaps with an arrangement that the new MP would themself stand down in a year? Not very plausible but perhaps more feasible than a mass set of resignations?
    West Tyrone by-election
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Tyrone_by-election,_2018
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    rcs1000 said:

    To leave the EU and then have it responsible for our customs is to treat the decision to leave with contempt.

    The one area where Mr Tyndall and I disagree is on whether there are a large number of countries outside the EU which are desperate for free trade, but which have been stopped by the evil Commission.

    My view is that there are not (although there are exceptions, such as Australia), and that we are leaving a great many existing EU agreements behind. (Such as the ones with Mercosur, South Africa, Israel, Canada, South Korea, much of sub-Saharan Africa etc.)

    The goal of leaving the EU to sign hundreds of FTAs with countries rebuffed by the EU is a chimera.

    Now, my preferred option would be to largely solve the issue by joining EFTA (whose FTA list is almost identical to the EU's, with the exception of not being quite so strong in Africa, but having actually completed an agreement with the GCC). But Dr Fox has ruled out joining EFTA (not EFTA/EEA, simply EFTA), for reasons known only to himself and his closest advisor (a small, imaginary, pig named Gerald).

    If EFTA is off the table, then why not stay in the customs union in the medium term? It saves us a decade of replicating work that has already been done. It gives us control over our laws, and of immigration. Make it time limited (five or seven years) if you are concerned that it is staying in by another name (and which at least forces us to re-examine it), but it seems an odd sticking point.

    There's another advantage to the customs unions: Rules of Origin. Today, an Aston Martin exported to South Korea incurs no tariff. If we exit the EU's customs union, and sign our own free trade agreement with Korea, then there is the very real risk that tariffs will be imposed. Why? Because Aston Martin's contain a mix of British and EU parts. While I don't know the mix today, I would be very surprised if the UK's content share exceeded the 60% required to be covered by a Korean FTA. (And exporting from the EU to Korea wouldn't work either, as it would not reach 60% EU content either.)

    Now: I'm not saying the EU customs union is perfect. It's clearly not. It means a diminution of our sovereignty. But all things are relative: it does not affect our ability to control our immigration policy, and it does not involve the ECJ ruling on the franchise. It would be better to join EFTA than to stay in the customs union. But if we choose to do neither, then we are likely to significantly worsen our terms of trade with everyone else in the world. And if we worsen our terms of trade with everyone, then there isn't going to be £350m available every week for the NHS.
    It is not just about trade deals though. Membership of the EU Customs Union means continuing to surrender voting rights at the WTO and other international bodies
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    Leo Varadkar is leader of Fine Gael though, quite a distance from Sinn Fein politically.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Civil_War :innocent:
    That was not a good war
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    tpfkar said:

    A thought although unlikely.

    Sinn Fein recognises that a hard border would be bad for Ireland.
    Sinn Fein do not take seats at Westminster and never will.
    Sinn Fein recognises that the circumstances are unique.

    All Sinn Fein Westminster MPs resign asking their supporters to vote SDLP in the ensuing by-elections. Sinn Fein will re-stand at the next Westminster GE.

    SDLP 2017 manifesto said "Only the SDLP can fight a hard Brexit and a hard border after this election."

    Now assume there are 7 SDLP MPs at Westminster.

    Not going to happen is it. Is it?

    Can't see it. But the Fermanagh and Tyrone by-election hasn't been called yet as far as I know. If SF didn't nominate but endorsed SDLP along those lines, perhaps with an arrangement that the new MP would themself stand down in a year? Not very plausible but perhaps more feasible than a mass set of resignations?
    SF want to annihilate the SDLP. They'd never agree to such an arrangement. They might agree to stand down in South Belfast if the SDLP stood down in North Belfast, but that's it.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Any Tory MP contemplating walking through the division lobbies with Jeremy Corbyn and Sinn Fein in order to break a manifesto commitment might want to consider how this will go down with their constituency association.

    Tory MPs in 1992/93 broke a manifesto commitment and voted with Jeremy Corbyn on a regular basis.
    True, but in that instance I doubt the constituency associations minded too much.
    They were traitors who helped enable thirteen years of a Labour government.
    Sling 'em out! Starting with Hannan who also collaborated with UKIP.
    There would not be much left of the Conservative Party if you removed the eurosceptics.
    And there won't be much left soon if you don't.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Bloody Polish immigrants, coming over here, stealing British people's jobs.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:
    “The mayor told people to stay inside but they took part in snowball fights instead”

    Bloody Italians!
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    @rcs1000 - good to know I’m not the only Leaver who doesn’t see some kind of customs union as being the end of the world, and an unforgivable betrayal of the British people.

    It’s out of our hands now anyway. Let’s see what May says on Friday.
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    I can't see this happening. In the context of Irish politics, I can see why the Taoiseach would press this course of action on Sinn Fein: it plays well to his own voter base.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,920
    Cyclefree said:
    Who will the next Pres of Italy be :) ?

    Noone seems to have the foggiest judging by Betfair's market.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:
    Who will the next Pres of Italy be :) ?

    Noone seems to have the foggiest judging by Betfair's market.
    Next PM you mean, it is only parliamentary elections in Italy on Sunday
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Any Tory MP contemplating walking through the division lobbies with Jeremy Corbyn and Sinn Fein in order to break a manifesto commitment might want to consider how this will go down with their constituency association.

    Tory MPs in 1992/93 broke a manifesto commitment and voted with Jeremy Corbyn on a regular basis.
    True, but in that instance I doubt the constituency associations minded too much.
    They were traitors who helped enable thirteen years of a Labour government.
    Sling 'em out! Starting with Hannan who also collaborated with UKIP.
    There would not be much left of the Conservative Party if you removed the eurosceptics.
    And there won't be much left soon if you don't.
    There I beg to differ. You can't just wish away millions of voters.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,246
    Came home early. Good call. Not seen snow like this for quite a number of years.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,920
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:
    Who will the next Pres of Italy be :) ?

    Noone seems to have the foggiest judging by Betfair's market.
    Next PM you mean, it is only parliamentary elections in Italy on Sunday
    Yes sorry, PM.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    edited February 2018

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Any Tory MP contemplating walking through the division lobbies with Jeremy Corbyn and Sinn Fein in order to break a manifesto commitment might want to consider how this will go down with their constituency association.

    Tory MPs in 1992/93 broke a manifesto commitment and voted with Jeremy Corbyn on a regular basis.
    True, but in that instance I doubt the constituency associations minded too much.
    They were traitors who helped enable thirteen years of a Labour government.
    Sling 'em out! Starting with Hannan who also collaborated with UKIP.
    There would not be much left of the Conservative Party if you removed the eurosceptics.
    And there won't be much left soon if you don't.
    The Tories got their highest voteshare since 1983 by promising to implement Brexit
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,920
    Gentiloni, Tajani, Di Maio, Salvini look to be the runners with Berlusconi and Renzi as rank outsiders.
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    Mr. L, it was odd here a short time ago. Sky darkened, heavy snowfall, middle-distance was swallowed by white, and then, just ten minutes later, bright sun and blue skies.
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    Mr. B, also, a major question is how good the McLaren will be.

    Three wheels on my wagon ............
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,246

    Mr. L, it was odd here a short time ago. Sky darkened, heavy snowfall, middle-distance was swallowed by white, and then, just ten minutes later, bright sun and blue skies.

    It is quite patchy here too but the difference with earlier in the day is that it has gone below zero and it has stopped melting. When its on its a proper blizzard and it is starting to pile up. My son is already checking his e-mails about school tomorrow.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    Pulpstar said:

    Gentiloni, Tajani, Di Maio, Salvini look to be the runners with Berlusconi and Renzi as rank outsiders.

    Berlusconi Kingmaker
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    Floater said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Any Tory MP contemplating walking through the division lobbies with Jeremy Corbyn and Sinn Fein in order to break a manifesto commitment might want to consider how this will go down with their constituency association.

    Tory MPs in 1992/93 broke a manifesto commitment and voted with Jeremy Corbyn on a regular basis.
    True, but in that instance I doubt the constituency associations minded too much.
    They were traitors who helped enable thirteen years of a Labour government.
    Didn't the poll tax and sleaze have anything to do with the Tories being kicked out?

    Ps - I thought the tory "leavers" were headbangers in the 90's - now it seems a lot of what they said is actually coming to pass.
    The Tories won a majority after the poll tax.

    The poll tax was only introduced in Scotland as I recall, not England Wales or NI.

    Did not go down well with voters in Scotland.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,988

    Floater said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Any Tory MP contemplating walking through the division lobbies with Jeremy Corbyn and Sinn Fein in order to break a manifesto commitment might want to consider how this will go down with their constituency association.

    Tory MPs in 1992/93 broke a manifesto commitment and voted with Jeremy Corbyn on a regular basis.
    True, but in that instance I doubt the constituency associations minded too much.
    They were traitors who helped enable thirteen years of a Labour government.
    Didn't the poll tax and sleaze have anything to do with the Tories being kicked out?

    Ps - I thought the tory "leavers" were headbangers in the 90's - now it seems a lot of what they said is actually coming to pass.
    The Tories won a majority after the poll tax.

    The poll tax was only introduced in Scotland as I recall, not England Wales or NI.

    Did not go down well with voters in Scotland.
    It was introduced in England; just a year after Scotland.

    Leastways, I remember having to pay it in 1991-ish.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    edited February 2018
    https://twitter.com/KingEconomist/status/968484211584794625

    Edit. The caption is a bit of a cheat. The barbed wire is due to the lack of FoM.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708
    daodao said:


    The UK govt could choose to have a customs border along the Irish Sea if they still want GB to remain outside the CU, but they would lose the support of the DUP if they pursued this option.

    Late to the party, but you're suggesting that the United Kingdom should be broken up. An internal border within a nation state? End of that nation state as presently constituted.

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,112

    Mr. L, it was odd here a short time ago. Sky darkened, heavy snowfall, middle-distance was swallowed by white, and then, just ten minutes later, bright sun and blue skies.

    Same here in Devon. Dog just had his first introduction to snow. Blew. His. Little. Mind!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,112
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Any Tory MP contemplating walking through the division lobbies with Jeremy Corbyn and Sinn Fein in order to break a manifesto commitment might want to consider how this will go down with their constituency association.

    Tory MPs in 1992/93 broke a manifesto commitment and voted with Jeremy Corbyn on a regular basis.
    True, but in that instance I doubt the constituency associations minded too much.
    They were traitors who helped enable thirteen years of a Labour government.
    Sling 'em out! Starting with Hannan who also collaborated with UKIP.
    There would not be much left of the Conservative Party if you removed the eurosceptics.
    And there won't be much left soon if you don't.
    The Tories got their highest voteshare since 1983 by promising to implement Brexit
    Labour's wasn't too shabby, for promising to do the same.....
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,112
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:
    “The mayor told people to stay inside but they took part in snowball fights instead”

    Bloody Italians!
    The worry in Naples, is they bring a gun to a snowball fight.....
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:
    “The mayor told people to stay inside but they took part in snowball fights instead”

    Bloody Italians!
    Neapolitans know how to have fun. And they ignore their politicians.

    A lesson to us all! :)
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203
    BTW how is Alison Saunders, Head of the CPS still in her job?

    The news is reporting widespread disclosure failures by the CPS, way beyond the ones we know about relating to recent rape cases.

    This is basic stuff.
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    Robert Halfwit MP living up to his name...
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:
    “The mayor told people to stay inside but they took part in snowball fights instead”

    Bloody Italians!
    The worry in Naples, is they bring a gun to a snowball fight.....
    They're more likely to bring a good strong coffee (black, absolutely no chocolate sprinkled on top).

    One of those pictures is of Piazza del Plebiscito, a gorgeous square in front of the Royal Palace and near the San Carlo Opera House. Nearby is Gambrinus, one of the great cafes of the world.

    Naples also has one of the best chocolate shops ever - Gay Odins. Their chocolate log is to die for.
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    Cyclefree said:
    I'd have hoped that their snow would be striped brown, white and pink.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    SeanT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    @rcs1000 - good to know I’m not the only Leaver who doesn’t see some kind of customs union as being the end of the world, and an unforgivable betrayal of the British people.

    It’s out of our hands now anyway. Let’s see what May says on Friday.

    It's a betrayal because it's the worst outcome of all. If we're gonna stay in the CU then stay in the SM. EFTA/EEA.

    Of course many Remainers proposing this, propose it for precisely that reason: being in the CU but outside the SM will be so uncomfortable the pressure to reverse Brexit, or call a 2nd vote, will be irresistible.

    I think we are now heading for a new general election or a 2nd referendum, or both (or a general election which is a proxy for a new plebiscite). I don't see how the Tories can avoid all the rocks and navigate to a safe harbour.
    I don't think many Remainers are proposing to be in the Customs Union alone. You can be in a CU and either an FTA (the probable Govt choice to the extent we can distinguish any policy at all) or the full fat SM.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,988
    edited February 2018
    I had to check the date to ensure it wasn't April 1st:

    "Moon to get 4G mobile network
    Mobile giants Vodafone and Nokia have laid out plans to launch a 4G mobile network on the Moon in 2019."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/technology-43211192/moon-to-get-4g-mobile-network

    Edit: I haven't read anything about this beyond the video, but it doesn't really sounds like a fully-fledged 4G network; just using existing 4G it and peripherals for communications. Should be cheaper.

    Still cool though.
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    Mr. Evershed, well, that's what testing is there for.

    Mr. Mark, Kai the dog was still too young (pre-shots) for a walk when we had the first of those deep winters. The snow in the garden came up to his stomach, and he was part-short haired border collie (much of his undercarriage was hairless) but it never seemed to bother him.

    Miss Cyclefree, she's a 'progressive', no?
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Cyclefree said:

    BTW how is Alison Saunders, Head of the CPS still in her job?

    The news is reporting widespread disclosure failures by the CPS, way beyond the ones we know about relating to recent rape cases.

    This is basic stuff.


    Yeah, but they get more convictions...

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203

    Cyclefree said:
    I'd have hoped that their snow would be striped brown, white and pink.
    That's only after the orgies.......
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    I think we are now heading for a new general election or a 2nd referendum, or both (or a general election which is a proxy for a new plebiscite). I don't see how the Tories can avoid all the rocks and navigate to a safe harbour.

    All the rocks the Brexiteers said were "Project Fear"

    Funny that...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    edited February 2018
    Tomorrow will be a big day.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203

    Mr. Evershed, well, that's what testing is there for.

    Mr. Mark, Kai the dog was still too young (pre-shots) for a walk when we had the first of those deep winters. The snow in the garden came up to his stomach, and he was part-short haired border collie (much of his undercarriage was hairless) but it never seemed to bother him.

    Miss Cyclefree, she's a 'progressive', no?

    Progressively useless......

    It really matters this stuff. People should not be at risk of a miscarriage of justice and those who commit crimes should not get off because the prosecution is bloody useless. The rule of law is at the heart of a civilised society, however unpopular lawyers may be as a class (and however unfair this is to a fine body of upstanding women......and men).
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,112
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:
    “The mayor told people to stay inside but they took part in snowball fights instead”

    Bloody Italians!
    The worry in Naples, is they bring a gun to a snowball fight.....
    They're more likely to bring a good strong coffee (black, absolutely no chocolate sprinkled on top).

    One of those pictures is of Piazza del Plebiscito, a gorgeous square in front of the Royal Palace and near the San Carlo Opera House. Nearby is Gambrinus, one of the great cafes of the world.

    Naples also has one of the best chocolate shops ever - Gay Odins. Their chocolate log is to die for.
    Tempted, but I'm thinking I really shouldn't Google "Gay Odin's chocolate log"......
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203

    Cyclefree said:

    BTW how is Alison Saunders, Head of the CPS still in her job?

    The news is reporting widespread disclosure failures by the CPS, way beyond the ones we know about relating to recent rape cases.

    This is basic stuff.


    Yeah, but they get more convictions...

    They'd get even more if we did without trials altogether then....

    Who is the Justice Secretary? The Attorney-General? And why aren't they doing their bloody jobs??
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:
    “The mayor told people to stay inside but they took part in snowball fights instead”

    Bloody Italians!
    The worry in Naples, is they bring a gun to a snowball fight.....
    They're more likely to bring a good strong coffee (black, absolutely no chocolate sprinkled on top).

    One of those pictures is of Piazza del Plebiscito, a gorgeous square in front of the Royal Palace and near the San Carlo Opera House. Nearby is Gambrinus, one of the great cafes of the world.

    Naples also has one of the best chocolate shops ever - Gay Odins. Their chocolate log is to die for.
    Tempted, but I'm thinking I really shouldn't Google "Gay Odin's chocolate log"......
    I have done it for you - https://www.gay-odin.it

    It is perfectly respectable and utterly delicious......
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    Miss Cyclefree, I entirely agree. But that's what happens when idiots start describing plaintiffs as 'victims', which necessarily means they view the accused as guilty before any pesky conviction is required.

    .... You know miles more about this than me, obviously. But it reminds of government idiocy over tech laws. I shouldn't know more about the basics than those who are professionally charged with legislating and regulating these areas.

    *sighs*

    Mr. P, the rocks are coming about because the likes of Grieve and Corbyn are grabbing at the wheel.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    Scott_P said:
    This article explains there will be no "transition" arrangement without the UK agreeing the NI CU&SM fallback. No transition would be utter chaos. The irresistible force we meets the immovable object and we have a humdinger of a mess.
    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/968159345644134403
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,112
    The EU is ultimately going to have out roll out a whole bunch of fudge to get round the Irish border. So get to it......

    Time to take the REALLY MASSIVE CHEQUE into meetings, made out to the EU for £40,000,000,000.00

    "And this is what you could have won......"
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,942
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    I think we are now heading for a new general election or a 2nd referendum, or both (or a general election which is a proxy for a new plebiscite). I don't see how the Tories can avoid all the rocks and navigate to a safe harbour.

    All the rocks the Brexiteers said were "Project Fear"

    Funny that...
    a) We were always sovereign, the EU doesn't have that much of an impact on our daily lives
    b) We are so intertwined with the EU that leaving is impossible

    Pick one.

    If you believe as I do that the EU is fundamentally undemocratic and has neither the desire nor the will to reform, that means either leaving at any cost, or admitting that democracy is dead as some doo doo.

    Either way, arguing b) is unlikely to win many converts to your side.
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    Floater said:

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Any Tory MP contemplating walking through the division lobbies with Jeremy Corbyn and Sinn Fein in order to break a manifesto commitment might want to consider how this will go down with their constituency association.

    Tory MPs in 1992/93 broke a manifesto commitment and voted with Jeremy Corbyn on a regular basis.
    True, but in that instance I doubt the constituency associations minded too much.
    They were traitors who helped enable thirteen years of a Labour government.
    Didn't the poll tax and sleaze have anything to do with the Tories being kicked out?

    Ps - I thought the tory "leavers" were headbangers in the 90's - now it seems a lot of what they said is actually coming to pass.
    The Tories won a majority after the poll tax.

    The poll tax was only introduced in Scotland as I recall, not England Wales or NI.

    Did not go down well with voters in Scotland.
    It was introduced in England & Wales in 1990, a year after Scotland. It was replaced by Council Tax in 1993.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Community_charge&redirect=no
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    Mr. 100, I was thinking that too.

    "The EU doesn't affect us much, we really aren't integrated. But leaving is impossibly difficult and complicated."
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    SeanT said:

    I don't see how the Tories can avoid all the EU Boats and navigate to a safe harbour.

    Correction :innocent:

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056

    The EU is ultimately going to have out roll out a whole bunch of fudge to get round the Irish border. So get to it......

    Time to take the REALLY MASSIVE CHEQUE into meetings, made out to the EU for £40,000,000,000.00

    "And this is what you could have won......"
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/08/31/the-uk-and-the-eu-a-question-of-trust/2/

    The U.K. negotiators’ strategy is foolish in the extreme. They appear to think that if they dig their heels in over the financial settlement, eventually one or more EU countries will break ranks over trade negotiations. But if the Greek precedent is anything to go by, this is a vain hope. The EU27 know where their interests lie. They will stand firm over the Brexit negotiations just as the Eurozone did over Greece, and watch as the UK is dragged, kicking and screaming, over every one of its "red lines."
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    SeanT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    @rcs1000 - good to know I’m not the only Leaver who doesn’t see some kind of customs union as being the end of the world, and an unforgivable betrayal of the British people.

    It’s out of our hands now anyway. Let’s see what May says on Friday.

    It's a betrayal because it's the worst outcome of all. If we're gonna stay in the CU then stay in the SM. EFTA/EEA.

    Of course many Remainers proposing this, propose it for precisely that reason: being in the CU but outside the SM will be so uncomfortable the pressure to reverse Brexit, or call a 2nd vote, will be irresistible.

    I think we are now heading for a new general election or a 2nd referendum, or both (or a general election which is a proxy for a new plebiscite). I don't see how the Tories can avoid all the rocks and navigate to a safe harbour.
    Staying in the EEA requires free movement, non negotiable for working class Leave voters. That is why Corbyn has just stuck to staying in 'a' Customs Union while still leaving the single market and EU.

    Unless the LDs hold the balance of power after the next general election there will be no second referendum and unless Corbyn is replaced as Labour leader by someone like Umunna who wins a majority at the next general election we will not be staying in the single market

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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    I think we are now heading for a new general election or a 2nd referendum, or both (or a general election which is a proxy for a new plebiscite). I don't see how the Tories can avoid all the rocks and navigate to a safe harbour.

    All the rocks the Brexiteers said were "Project Fear"

    Funny that...
    a) We were always sovereign, the EU doesn't have that much of an impact on our daily lives
    b) We are so intertwined with the EU that leaving is impossible

    Pick one.

    If you believe as I do that the EU is fundamentally undemocratic and has neither the desire nor the will to reform, that means either leaving at any cost, or admitting that democracy is dead as some doo doo.

    Either way, arguing b) is unlikely to win many converts to your side.
    The Good Friday Agreement, which is what is causing all the trouble, has nothing to do with the EU - it was signed by the UK and Ireland governments of their own free will. Its only because of the additional sovereignty being part of the EU gives Ireland, that they can enforce the GFA and tell the UK government where to go.
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