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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly the money’s going on 2018 being the year of the next

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited February 27 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly the money’s going on 2018 being the year of the next General Election

Exactly three weeks ago 2018 was rated as just a 3.8% on Betfair’s “Year of Next General Election” market. Tonight it has reached 18.3% and is now the third favourite.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,905
    Evening all :)

    Hard to see why or how the Conservatives would want to commit electoral suicide. Change a leader perhaps but no need to revisit the ballot box until required.
  • That's because I did a thread header saying I was backing a 2018 election/laying 2022 as the year of the next election.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,905
    Of course we can't rule out an unexpected event like England winning the World Cup and a resulting surge of patriotic fervour encouraging May to go to the country.

    Trouble is, she tried that before.
  • It’s hard to overstate just what a damaging fool Boris Johnson is, isn’t it?
  • It’s hard to overstate just what a damaging fool Boris Johnson is, isn’t it?

    I'm being positive, he's convincing the Parliamentary Party and the membership that he's not fit to be PM/Leader.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,521
    Where money is going on is no guide to what will happen cf. Brexit referendum
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,097
    Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    I'd be happy to have an election every year but voters probably wouldn't like it and turnout would be low.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241

    Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.

    Mozzarella from outside the EU?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    edited February 27
    AndyJS said:

    I'd be happy to have an election every year but voters probably wouldn't like it and turnout would be low.

    We've had at least one major plebiscite/election since 2014, I don't think I have the mental bandwith to deal with another one this year.

    The one good thing about Mrs May calling a 2017 election is that it spared us from having a US Primary season/Presidential election in a UK general election year.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,211
    AndyJS said:

    I'd be happy to have an election every year but voters probably wouldn't like it and turnout would be low.

    I never bet but I've been reading this site for long enough to learn that, usually, things don't happen. And when they do, they're things no-one ever expected to happen.

    Good evening, everybody.
  • It’s hard to overstate just what a damaging fool Boris Johnson is, isn’t it?

    I'm being positive, he's convincing the Parliamentary Party and the membership that he's not fit to be PM/Leader.
    This member will not vote for Boris under any circumstances
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020
    Labour's change of stance seems both predicated on the possibility of an election in the short term, and a potential cause of it. so I'm not surprised it suddenly seems more plausible.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,236

    It’s hard to overstate just what a damaging fool Boris Johnson is, isn’t it?

    I'm being positive, he's convincing the Parliamentary Party and the membership that he's not fit to be PM/Leader.
    This member will not vote for Boris under any circumstances
    I like Boris a lot, but I would never want him to be PM. As for Rees-Mogg the Tories would be nuts to go with him.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,511
    Not sure about 2018... 2019 will be the year when the shit really hits the fan. If we are faced with a hard cliff-edge brexit because of a failure to agree a sensible deal, a GE would probably be inevitable.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    edited February 27
    Ooooh, potential by elections?

    Labour MPs are warning Jeremy Corbyn they could quit their seats if Ken Livingstone’s suspension from the party is lifted, HuffPost has learned.

    A string of backbenchers raised the issue at the weekly meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) on Monday, predicting “departures” of MPs and many members if allegations of anti-semitism were not fully investigated.

    It emerged this weekend that no internal inquiry had yet started into remarks by Livingstone suggesting Hitler was a Zionist, despite Corbyn ordering a fresh probe 10 months ago.

    With his two-year suspension from the party due to run out in April, party insiders had expressed alarm that his case was not scheduled to be heard by the ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) next month.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-mps-warn-corbyn-of-party-resignations-if-ken-livingstone-suspension-lifted_uk_5a95c269e4b0e6a523021026?fa&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage
  • It’s hard to overstate just what a damaging fool Boris Johnson is, isn’t it?

    I'm being positive, he's convincing the Parliamentary Party and the membership that he's not fit to be PM/Leader.

    He is now actively harming the UK’s standing and interests. He is single-handedly demonstrating that we are not a good faith negotiating partner - not just to the EU, but to the world. That is hugely damaging. The PM surely cannot keep him in the cabinet now. It’s time to fire him.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,848
    For those of us who like to imagine the public follow every twist and turn of the political struggle, this is the BBC's second most read story:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-43209486
    (The weather one being the most read.)
  • glw said:

    It’s hard to overstate just what a damaging fool Boris Johnson is, isn’t it?

    I'm being positive, he's convincing the Parliamentary Party and the membership that he's not fit to be PM/Leader.
    This member will not vote for Boris under any circumstances
    I like Boris a lot, but I would never want him to be PM. As for Rees-Mogg the Tories would be nuts to go with him.
    Neither would I vote for JRM though he would be a good speaker
  • glwglw Posts: 4,236

    Ooooh, potential by elections?

    Labour MPs are warning Jeremy Corbyn they could quit their seats if Ken Livingstone’s suspension from the party is lifted, HuffPost has learned.

    Labour MPs don't exactly have a great track record of following through with ultimatums.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,645
    AndyJS said:

    I'd be happy to have an election every year but voters probably wouldn't like it and turnout would be low.

    Annual Parliaments is the only remaining undelivered reform from the Peoples Charter of 1838:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chartism#People's_Charter_of_1838
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,511

    Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.

    Mozzarella from outside the EU?
    I don't think JRM does the shopping very often - even in Waitrose you can get genuine Italian Mozzarella for 70p for 125g. Oh wait, there's no tariff on that today of course!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    Ooooh, potential by elections?

    Labour MPs are warning Jeremy Corbyn they could quit their seats if Ken Livingstone’s suspension from the party is lifted, HuffPost has learned.

    A string of backbenchers raised the issue at the weekly meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) on Monday, predicting “departures” of MPs and many members if allegations of anti-semitism were not fully investigated.

    It emerged this weekend that no internal inquiry had yet started into remarks by Livingstone suggesting Hitler was a Zionist, despite Corbyn ordering a fresh probe 10 months ago.

    With his two-year suspension from the party due to run out in April, party insiders had expressed alarm that his case was not scheduled to be heard by the ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) next month.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-mps-warn-corbyn-of-party-resignations-if-ken-livingstone-suspension-lifted_uk_5a95c269e4b0e6a523021026?fa&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

    Moderate Labour MPs are complicit in the hostile takeover of their party ('All that is necessary etc'). We can reasonably expect them to do sweet Felicity Arkwright.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,454

    Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.

    Is Rees-Mogg now advocating hyper-deflation?
  • Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.

    Is Rees-Mogg now advocating hyper-deflation?
    No. Lower prices for hard pressed families. What's not to like?
  • Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.

    Seriously dodgy. No-one would be daft enough to pay £390 for a BSO (Bike-Shaped Object) like a Viking. For that price you can get an immeasurably better b'twin bike from Decathlon.

    Oh, wait, no you can't, Decathlon are French and so that'll shoot up in price if we leave the customs union.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    Looks like an easy lay to me.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 275

    Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.

    Is Rees-Mogg now advocating hyper-deflation?
    And how are the government going to make up the lost revenue? Incidentally how can JRM be PM? The DUP aren't going to accept a Papists in No 10!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,645
    Nigelb said:

    For those of us who like to imagine the public follow every twist and turn of the political struggle, this is the BBC's second most read story:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-43209486
    (The weather one being the most read.)

    Another story broken by the Leicester Mercury, the only real journal of note for the discerning:

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,511
    edited February 27

    Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.

    Is Rees-Mogg now advocating hyper-deflation?
    No. Lower prices for hard pressed families. What's not to like?
    Hard pressed families will know they can already get all bar the ciggies cheaper than those prices! E.g. Canned Tuna Steak £1.52 without the tariff... or 89p today in Lidls!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490

    Ooooh, potential by elections?

    Labour MPs are warning Jeremy Corbyn they could quit their seats if Ken Livingstone’s suspension from the party is lifted, HuffPost has learned.

    A string of backbenchers raised the issue at the weekly meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) on Monday, predicting “departures” of MPs and many members if allegations of anti-semitism were not fully investigated.

    It emerged this weekend that no internal inquiry had yet started into remarks by Livingstone suggesting Hitler was a Zionist, despite Corbyn ordering a fresh probe 10 months ago.

    With his two-year suspension from the party due to run out in April, party insiders had expressed alarm that his case was not scheduled to be heard by the ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) next month.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-mps-warn-corbyn-of-party-resignations-if-ken-livingstone-suspension-lifted_uk_5a95c269e4b0e6a523021026?fa&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

    Nothing is going to happen.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,454
    Scott_P said:
    Ah so now we know. Boris had been swotting up on a 'highly facilitated solution' and came up with Camden and Westminster.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    For those of us who like to imagine the public follow every twist and turn of the political struggle, this is the BBC's second most read story:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-43209486
    (The weather one being the most read.)

    Another story broken by the Leicester Mercury, the only real journal of note for the discerning:
    Did they break this one?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-43144021
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    Between 2010 and 2017 the Labour share increased by more than 20 percentage points in 94 constituencies. The average increase in Great Britain was 11.36 percentage points.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_glucx8ICVHTLfPkxkcfPFmjA3adya8Sus9K-hrXAuA/edit#
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,016
    Just looked on the Irish Times websites for news about Sinn Fein potentially taking up their seats at Westminster. Nothing there.

    The time when the Irish question would be settled at Westminster has long passed. The Irish know that the EU will help them hold London to its Treaty obligations. Internal British politics is neither here nor there.
  • AndyJS said:

    Between 2010 and 2017 the Labour share increased by more than 20 percentage points in 94 constituencies. The average increase in Great Britain was 11.36 percentage points.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_glucx8ICVHTLfPkxkcfPFmjA3adya8Sus9K-hrXAuA/edit#

    Do you do requests?

    There's some data I need for an upcoming thread.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,620
    Sean_F said:

    Ooooh, potential by elections?

    Labour MPs are warning Jeremy Corbyn they could quit their seats if Ken Livingstone’s suspension from the party is lifted, HuffPost has learned.

    A string of backbenchers raised the issue at the weekly meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) on Monday, predicting “departures” of MPs and many members if allegations of anti-semitism were not fully investigated.

    It emerged this weekend that no internal inquiry had yet started into remarks by Livingstone suggesting Hitler was a Zionist, despite Corbyn ordering a fresh probe 10 months ago.

    With his two-year suspension from the party due to run out in April, party insiders had expressed alarm that his case was not scheduled to be heard by the ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) next month.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-mps-warn-corbyn-of-party-resignations-if-ken-livingstone-suspension-lifted_uk_5a95c269e4b0e6a523021026?fa&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

    Nothing is going to happen.
    Well, he will be allowed back - so, something will happen
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,645
    AndyJS said:

    Between 2010 and 2017 the Labour share increased by more than 20 percentage points in 94 constituencies. The average increase in Great Britain was 11.36 percentage points.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_glucx8ICVHTLfPkxkcfPFmjA3adya8Sus9K-hrXAuA/edit#

    Great resource!

    Some interesting big swings, and often in Leave voting areas.

    Labour getting 30%+ in true blue Harborough or Huntington is truly Corbynism sweeping the nation.
  • Christ on a bike, Max Mosley
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,857
    Hitler was a Zionist is not what he said.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,511

    Christ on a bike, Max Mosley

    Any context for that ejaculation TSE?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637
    edited February 27
    @Gardenwalker FPT

    Yes CIP leads on treaties (historically parliament had no say, but I think ratification is a useful innovation).

    That doesn’t mean they habecthe untrammelled right to do what they like. The “divine right” of the CiP comes from the sovereign will of the people. Essentially the CiP cannot permanently alienate powers because it only has delegated authority not absolute authority.

    I’d generally restrict the requirement to consult the people to constitutional change
  • The special counsel investigating possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin has dropped nearly two dozen criminal fraud charges against a key witness who has agreed to cooperate in the investigation.

    A court filing on Tuesday showed that prosecutors working for Robert Mueller dropped some charges against Rick Gates, a former aide to the Trump campaign who previously worked as a lobbyist for pro-Russian interests, just days after he was indicted for participating in a conspiracy to hide millions of dollars in fees he was paid for lobbying work and evade US taxes.

    Gates pleaded guilty last week to separate charges, filed against him in Washington DC, that he conspired against the US and lied to investigators over the course of their inquiry.

    The Virginia charges were dropped against him as part of a plea agreement in which Gates is being shown leniency by prosecutors in exchange for his full cooperation.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/27/rick-gates-charges-robert-mueller-russia-investigation?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1519768956
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be happy to have an election every year but voters probably wouldn't like it and turnout would be low.

    We've had at least one major plebiscite/election since 2014, I don't think I have the mental bandwith to deal with another one this year.

    The one good thing about Mrs May calling a 2017 election is that it spared us from having a US Primary season/Presidential election in a UK general election year.
    Until 2032 anyway.
  • Christ on a bike, Max Mosley

    Any context for that ejaculation TSE?
    Probably? PROBABLY?

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    AndyJS said:

    Between 2010 and 2017 the Labour share increased by more than 20 percentage points in 94 constituencies. The average increase in Great Britain was 11.36 percentage points.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_glucx8ICVHTLfPkxkcfPFmjA3adya8Sus9K-hrXAuA/edit#

    Would the collapse of the Lib Dems have anything to do with that?
  • @henrymance: Amazing scenes on Channel 4 News as Max Mosley denies that a leaflet he put out in 1961 was racist, then admits it was, and then pauses to check a call on his mobile phone.

    He’s now denying it was racist again.

    “Why should I not support Tom Watson?” Will you give him more money? “Yes, absolutely.”

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975

    Just looked on the Irish Times websites for news about Sinn Fein potentially taking up their seats at Westminster. Nothing there.

    The time when the Irish question would be settled at Westminster has long passed. The Irish know that the EU will help them hold London to its Treaty obligations. Internal British politics is neither here nor there.

    As a matter of interest, what is the specific treaty obligation you think London is obliged to honour?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,513

    AndyJS said:

    Between 2010 and 2017 the Labour share increased by more than 20 percentage points in 94 constituencies. The average increase in Great Britain was 11.36 percentage points.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_glucx8ICVHTLfPkxkcfPFmjA3adya8Sus9K-hrXAuA/edit#

    Would the collapse of the Lib Dems have anything to do with that?
    And collapse of UKIP
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,511

    Christ on a bike, Max Mosley

    Any context for that ejaculation TSE?
    Probably? PROBABLY?

    Ah yes - what a complete and utter scumbag he is.
  • @henrymance: Amazing scenes on Channel 4 News as Max Mosley denies that a leaflet he put out in 1961 was racist, then admits it was, and then pauses to check a call on his mobile phone.

    He’s now denying it was racist again.

    “Why should I not support Tom Watson?” Will you give him more money? “Yes, absolutely.”

    Over to you Tom Watson
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,511

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be happy to have an election every year but voters probably wouldn't like it and turnout would be low.

    We've had at least one major plebiscite/election since 2014, I don't think I have the mental bandwith to deal with another one this year.

    The one good thing about Mrs May calling a 2017 election is that it spared us from having a US Primary season/Presidential election in a UK general election year.
    Until 2032 anyway.
    Or 2020 quite possibly, depending on how things go with this strong and stable government :wink:
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    The markets as usual make predictions on the basis of short term skittishness -and not at all on political analysis.

    There will not be a general election in 2018 -nor will there be one until 2022.

    Theresa May will remain PM until after Brexit.

    Mogg will not make the final two candidates for the Tory leadership when a vacancy occurs.

    The Jeremy Corbyn wankathon will come to an end when he fails to become a prime minister and his supporters will look very silly.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,097
    Charles said:

    @Gardenwalker FPT

    Yes CIP leads on treaties (historically parliament had no say, but I think ratification is a useful innovation).

    That doesn’t mean they habecthe untrammelled right to do what they like. The “divine right” of the CiP comes from the sovereign will of the people. Essentially the CiP cannot permanently alienate powers because it only has delegated authority not absolute authority.

    I’d generally restrict the requirement to consult the people to constitutional change

    Do you think granting independence to various places was unconstitutional?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975

    AndyJS said:

    Between 2010 and 2017 the Labour share increased by more than 20 percentage points in 94 constituencies. The average increase in Great Britain was 11.36 percentage points.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_glucx8ICVHTLfPkxkcfPFmjA3adya8Sus9K-hrXAuA/edit#

    Would the collapse of the Lib Dems have anything to do with that?
    And collapse of UKIP
    UKIP didn't really collapse very much in vote share between 2010 and 2017: they only lost about 1.3% in net terms. The Lib Dems lost over 15% in that time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,645

    @henrymance: Amazing scenes on Channel 4 News as Max Mosley denies that a leaflet he put out in 1961 was racist, then admits it was, and then pauses to check a call on his mobile phone.

    He’s now denying it was racist again.

    “Why should I not support Tom Watson?” Will you give him more money? “Yes, absolutely.”

    Over to you Tom Watson
    I liked his reply:

    "Last night Tom Watson said: 'My views on Press regulation are well known and have not changed. The views expressed by Max as a young man are not the views he holds now, just as the Rothermere family no longer uses its newspapers to support fascism.' "

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5441827/Did-F1-tycoon-Max-Mosley-lie-orgy-trial.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637

    Charles said:

    @Gardenwalker FPT

    Yes CIP leads on treaties (historically parliament had no say, but I think ratification is a useful innovation).

    That doesn’t mean they habecthe untrammelled right to do what they like. The “divine right” of the CiP comes from the sovereign will of the people. Essentially the CiP cannot permanently alienate powers because it only has delegated authority not absolute authority.

    I’d generally restrict the requirement to consult the people to constitutional change

    Do you think granting independence to various places was unconstitutional?
    No - the relevant demos in those cases was the local population not the UK population.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,841

    AndyJS said:

    Between 2010 and 2017 the Labour share increased by more than 20 percentage points in 94 constituencies. The average increase in Great Britain was 11.36 percentage points.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_glucx8ICVHTLfPkxkcfPFmjA3adya8Sus9K-hrXAuA/edit#

    Would the collapse of the Lib Dems have anything to do with that?
    And collapse of UKIP
    UKIP didn't really collapse very much in vote share between 2010 and 2017: they only lost about 1.3% in net terms. The Lib Dems lost over 15% in that time.
    Although, even though there was not much net loss in UKIP vote share between 2010 and 2017, their "heartlands" (such as they are) in the latter are completely different to the former. In fact, their strongest performances last year were generally reflective of the BNP's strongest performances in 2010.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,773

    Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.

    Average EU tariffs are 1.6%, relatively low by world standards (World Bank). We don't pay even that on the more than half of imports from the Rey.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,097
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @Gardenwalker FPT

    Yes CIP leads on treaties (historically parliament had no say, but I think ratification is a useful innovation).

    That doesn’t mean they habecthe untrammelled right to do what they like. The “divine right” of the CiP comes from the sovereign will of the people. Essentially the CiP cannot permanently alienate powers because it only has delegated authority not absolute authority.

    I’d generally restrict the requirement to consult the people to constitutional change

    Do you think granting independence to various places was unconstitutional?
    No - the relevant demos in those cases was the local population not the UK population.
    Ireland was an integral part of the UK. If you accept the principle that sovereignty can be ‘alienated’ permanently, quibbling about EU membership seems a self-indulgent eccentricity.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,885
    Good lays abound. In a betting sense. +1 to steve's post below.
  • Barnier's lashing out. He's responsible for negotiating on behalf of the EU and if there's no deal he won't be very popular with a lot of EU leaders nor their people. It's not just the UK that suffers if there is no deal.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    Negotiation 101. You don't get your guy in the room until papers are ready to sign.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,773

    Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.

    Mozzarella from outside the EU?
    I think the 50% plus tariffs are outside quota. No-one actually pays them, although it does restrict how much you can import.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,804
    It's just going absolutely splendidly isn't it?
  • It's just going absolutely splendidly isn't it?
    Mrs May is trying to sabotage Brexit, is the only explanation.

    I mean what other reason explains appointing Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, and David Davis to key Brexit roles?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    AnneJGP said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be happy to have an election every year but voters probably wouldn't like it and turnout would be low.

    I never bet but I've been reading this site for long enough to learn that, usually, things don't happen. And when they do, they're things no-one ever expected to happen.
    +1

    David Cameron rode a horse!!!!! And others, from down the years.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Between 2010 and 2017 the Labour share increased by more than 20 percentage points in 94 constituencies. The average increase in Great Britain was 11.36 percentage points.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_glucx8ICVHTLfPkxkcfPFmjA3adya8Sus9K-hrXAuA/edit#

    Would the collapse of the Lib Dems have anything to do with that?
    And collapse of UKIP
    UKIP didn't really collapse very much in vote share between 2010 and 2017: they only lost about 1.3% in net terms. The Lib Dems lost over 15% in that time.
    Although, even though there was not much net loss in UKIP vote share between 2010 and 2017, their "heartlands" (such as they are) in the latter are completely different to the former. In fact, their strongest performances last year were generally reflective of the BNP's strongest performances in 2010.
    Perhaps, but the point is that the shift in UKIP's vote between 2010 and 2017 won't have much relation to Labour's gains (or losses) in that time, but the decline in LD vote share over that period is likely to be more closely related.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,645

    It's just going absolutely splendidly isn't it?
    To be fair on DD, it is hard to negotiate, when your own cabinet cannot agree on objectives.
  • AnneJGP said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be happy to have an election every year but voters probably wouldn't like it and turnout would be low.

    I never bet but I've been reading this site for long enough to learn that, usually, things don't happen. And when they do, they're things no-one ever expected to happen.
    +1

    David Cameron rode a horse!!!!! And others, from down the years.
    My favourites were David Cameron fish shopping in Morrisons and George Osborne buying a first class upgrade on the train.

    They were going to cost the Tories the 2015 election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,645

    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Between 2010 and 2017 the Labour share increased by more than 20 percentage points in 94 constituencies. The average increase in Great Britain was 11.36 percentage points.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_glucx8ICVHTLfPkxkcfPFmjA3adya8Sus9K-hrXAuA/edit#

    Would the collapse of the Lib Dems have anything to do with that?
    And collapse of UKIP
    UKIP didn't really collapse very much in vote share between 2010 and 2017: they only lost about 1.3% in net terms. The Lib Dems lost over 15% in that time.
    Although, even though there was not much net loss in UKIP vote share between 2010 and 2017, their "heartlands" (such as they are) in the latter are completely different to the former. In fact, their strongest performances last year were generally reflective of the BNP's strongest performances in 2010.
    Perhaps, but the point is that the shift in UKIP's vote between 2010 and 2017 won't have much relation to Labour's gains (or losses) in that time, but the decline in LD vote share over that period is likely to be more closely related.
    It certainly accounts for some of the bigger swings.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,391

    Barnier's lashing out. He's responsible for negotiating on behalf of the EU and if there's no deal he won't be very popular with a lot of EU leaders nor their people. It's not just the UK that suffers if there is no deal.
    What is amazing is how many Remainers in the UK (including papers like the FT) lap up the briefings from clearly partial sources as objective truth. This Martin Donnelly is an ex eurocrat for example.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,848

    It's just going absolutely splendidly isn't it?
    Mrs May is trying to sabotage Brexit, is the only explanation.

    I mean what other reason explains appointing Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, and David Davis to key Brexit roles?
    The world's most deadpan, stone cold sense of humour ever ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    The next general election won't be this year. The Local Elections in May will likely be better thsn expected for the PM given the relatively low base from which the Tories start and then full on Brexit negotiations will dominate the rest of the year and there won't be time for a general election and getting them completed by the end of the year in order for Westminster and the European Parliament to ratify any deal by the March 2019 deadline
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 638
    Foxy said:

    It's just going absolutely splendidly isn't it?
    To be fair on DD, it is hard to negotiate, when your own cabinet cannot agree on objectives.</blockquote

    And the other side won't negotiate from their agreed position

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,645
    Elliot said:

    Barnier's lashing out. He's responsible for negotiating on behalf of the EU and if there's no deal he won't be very popular with a lot of EU leaders nor their people. It's not just the UK that suffers if there is no deal.
    What is amazing is how many Remainers in the UK (including papers like the FT) lap up the briefings from clearly partial sources as objective truth. This Martin Donnelly is an ex eurocrat for example.
    Surely DD's visits to the negotiations are a matter of public record?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617

    Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.

    Mozzarella from outside the EU?
    Certainly from outside Italy.....

    One-in-four of the mozzarella cheeses on sale in Italy are made not from milk but from industrial curd that is a foreign import, the country’s main farming association has admitted.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/news/mozzarella-cheese-imported-curd-causes-latest-diplomatic-spat-between-italy-and-germany-a6824021.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617

    AnneJGP said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be happy to have an election every year but voters probably wouldn't like it and turnout would be low.

    I never bet but I've been reading this site for long enough to learn that, usually, things don't happen. And when they do, they're things no-one ever expected to happen.
    +1

    David Cameron rode a horse!!!!! And others, from down the years.
    My favourites were David Cameron fish shopping in Morrisons and George Osborne buying a first class upgrade on the train.

    They were going to cost the Tories the 2015 election.
    Not to forget “man cries at funeral”....
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,391
    Floater said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ooooh, potential by elections?

    Labour MPs are warning Jeremy Corbyn they could quit their seats if Ken Livingstone’s suspension from the party is lifted, HuffPost has learned.

    A string of backbenchers raised the issue at the weekly meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) on Monday, predicting “departures” of MPs and many members if allegations of anti-semitism were not fully investigated.

    It emerged this weekend that no internal inquiry had yet started into remarks by Livingstone suggesting Hitler was a Zionist, despite Corbyn ordering a fresh probe 10 months ago.

    With his two-year suspension from the party due to run out in April, party insiders had expressed alarm that his case was not scheduled to be heard by the ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) next month.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-mps-warn-corbyn-of-party-resignations-if-ken-livingstone-suspension-lifted_uk_5a95c269e4b0e6a523021026?fa&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

    Nothing is going to happen.
    Well, he will be allowed back - so, something will happen
    Corbyn is in a hard place. He has molly coddled anti-Semites with the best of them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    Elliot said:

    Barnier's lashing out. He's responsible for negotiating on behalf of the EU and if there's no deal he won't be very popular with a lot of EU leaders nor their people. It's not just the UK that suffers if there is no deal.
    What is amazing is how many Remainers in the UK (including papers like the FT) lap up the briefings from clearly partial sources as objective truth. This Martin Donnelly is an ex eurocrat for example.
    And only report the consequences to the U.K.: “U.K. driving licences will no longer be valid in the EU” - but remain silent on the validity of EU driving licences in the U.K. - I suspect they genuinely think voters are stupid.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,645

    Foxy said:

    It's just going absolutely splendidly isn't it?
    To be fair on DD, it is hard to negotiate, when your own cabinet cannot agree on objectives.
    Sure, but it always was going to be an EU27 deal or no deal. They have worked on it, while our lot didn't do their home work.

    Fail to prepare? Prepare to fail.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited February 27

    It’s hard to overstate just what a damaging fool Boris Johnson is, isn’t it?

    I'm being positive, he's convincing the Parliamentary Party and the membership that he's not fit to be PM/Leader.
    Is he? I think with his recent speech he has edged ahead of Rees Mogg as most likely to succeed May as Tory leader and PM.

    After Trump's win in the USA and with Berlusconi set to return in Italy on Sunday as Kingmaker after the Italian general election, Boris with his populist, patriotic charisma is looking like the face of winning western conservatism at the moment
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    Interesting that Labour got more votes in 2017 in 7 constituencies than the total number of votes in that constituency in 2010:

    1.Knowsley: Lab votes 2017 = 47,351, Total votes in 2010 = 44,654.
    2.L'pool Walton: 36,175 / 34,335.
    3.L'pool Riverside: 40,599 / 38,801.
    4.L'pool West Derby: 37,371 / 35,784.
    5.Lewisham Deptford: 42,461 / 41,220.
    6.Hackney South: 43,974 / 42,858.
    7.Bootle: 42,259 / 41,277.

    In a further 12 constituencies the Labour vote in 2017 was more than 90% the total vote in 2010.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,651

    Christ on a bike, Max Mosley

    Any context for that ejaculation TSE?
    Probably? PROBABLY?

    Ah yes - what a complete and utter scumbag he is.
    Apparently the NOTW was able to construct an expensive and invasive sting involving Mosley's shagging habits but couldn't discover a racist leaflet published by the son of Britain's most famous Fascist. What a loss that organ was to our marvellous free press.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412

    Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.

    Ummm: the wholesale (import) price of those products is WAAAAAAY below the retail.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    edited February 27
    HYUFD said:

    The next general election won't be this year. The Local Elections in May will likely be better thsn expected for the PM given the relatively low base from which the Tories start and then full on Brexit negotiations will dominate the rest of the year and there won't be time for a general election and getting them completed by the end of the year in order for Westminster and the European Parliament to ratify any deal by the March 2019 deadline

    I hope the spreadsheets I posted yesterday with data from the 2014 local elections were useful.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,162
    Charles said:

    The “divine right” of the CiP comes from the sovereign will of the people. Essentially the CiP cannot permanently alienate powers because it only has delegated authority not absolute authority.

    No it doesn't. The divine right[1] of the Crown comes from God in theory, in practice thru having the hardest bastards on your side. We even created a Church to hammer that point home. That "Government comes from the sovereign will of the dear pee-pul" gobshite is pure sentimental bollocks. You've been spending too long in the States, young Charles. This is Britain. We do things differently here.

    [1] no scare quotes

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,907
    Mortimer said:

    Negotiation 101. You don't get your guy in the room until papers are ready to sign.
    Politics 101. Appearances matter more than reality.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,391
    Foxy said:

    Elliot said:

    Barnier's lashing out. He's responsible for negotiating on behalf of the EU and if there's no deal he won't be very popular with a lot of EU leaders nor their people. It's not just the UK that suffers if there is no deal.
    What is amazing is how many Remainers in the UK (including papers like the FT) lap up the briefings from clearly partial sources as objective truth. This Martin Donnelly is an ex eurocrat for example.
    Surely DD's visits to the negotiations are a matter of public record?

    Sure, but it's the spin on them that is so spurious. Monthly meetings seem reasonable for the very top man on the delegation.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412

    Rees-Mogg has again proven that his intellect isn’t all that by associating himself with a seriously dodgy Sun article.

    Also, there's no tariff on the LG TV, as it's made in Korea, and the EU has an FTA with them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    The next general election won't be this year. The Local Elections in May will likely be better thsn expected for the PM given the relatively low base from which the Tories start and then full on Brexit negotiations will dominate the rest of the year and there won't be time for a general election and getting them completed by the end of the year in order for Westminster and the European Parliament to ratify any deal by the March 2019 deadline

    I hope the spreadsheets I posted yesterday with data from the 2014 local elections were useful.
    Yes, very detailed thanks
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,162
    Elliot said:

    Barnier's lashing out. He's responsible for negotiating on behalf of the EU and if there's no deal he won't be very popular with a lot of EU leaders nor their people. It's not just the UK that suffers if there is no deal.
    What is amazing is how many Remainers in the UK (including papers like the FT) lap up the briefings from clearly partial sources as objective truth. This Martin Donnelly is an ex eurocrat for example.
    Fair enough. So you'll find it easy to provide a timetable of David Davis's visits to the negotiating table then. So we can all share in your insight.
This discussion has been closed.