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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge variation opens up in the polling for November’s US MidTe

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 1 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge variation opens up in the polling for November’s US MidTerms

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    Frost!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,267
    Second. What a strange system the Americans have. No wonder Mugabe once offered to advise them on the democratic process!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    Mike’s point about the different polling methods is important. You can’t assume either is right. Probably a good idea to ignore the media narrative too if it’s not backed up clearly by polling.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    Are we certain there's no Russian involvement in the YouGov poll?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    A classic Sun headline about Mosley: "The "Liar", the swish and the whore-probe"

    Not a good day for Tom Watson and Labour in the papers.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,389
    Special elections so far this year have been disasterous for the Republicans.

    Historically they have been pretty good indicator of Mid Term results.

    The number of incumbent retirements is also pretty suggestive.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    Seem to be conflicting messages about shy Trumpers in 2016 polling.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/shy-voters-probably-arent-why-the-polls-missed-trump/

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/13/why-the-polls-missed-in-2016-was-it-shy-trump-supporters-after-all/?utm_term=.26bfbcf874b5

    The other issue is how linked support is for/against Trump, and voting for your Congressman. I could imagine Democrats quite enthused to land a blow against Trump. Are Trump supporters going to be inclined to go out and support him via the same Congressmen who have been sniffy about him at best - downright anti at worst? I suspect differential polling between the two groups might significantly help the Dems, whatever confusing message the polling is sending.

    But however it pans out in November, the read across to Trump 2020 is very difficult.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,267

    A classic Sun headline about Mosley: "The "Liar", the swish and the whore-probe"

    Not a good day for Tom Watson and Labour in the papers.

    The Sun does do a good headline.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair to lead the Second Referendum campaign then.......
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,466
    Wow - Trump appears to take on the NRA:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/28/trump-background-checks-gun-control

    I always hoped that his naturally combative nature wouldn't let him be exclusively right-wing- populists respond to popular moods. If he sticks to it (if big if) that'd be a bit of a game-changer for gun reform and perhaps for Trump's image.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197
    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    It was interesting that he was trying to get concessions from Brussels .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149

    A classic Sun headline about Mosley: "The "Liar", the swish and the whore-probe"

    Not a good day for Tom Watson and Labour in the papers.

    As Guido pointed out, if Mosley had donated £5k to Watson he’d have returned it, but it’s £500k and is paying for Watson’s staff of 9 people.

    Fantastic to see Mosley taken down a peg or two, and a very good day for those of us who don’t want to see the freedom of the press regulated and by rich men who got caught with their pants down.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367

    Mike’s point about the different polling methods is important. You can’t assume either is right. Probably a good idea to ignore the media narrative too if it’s not backed up clearly by polling.

    What does that leave? A market that we should leave alone?

    Given that the media narrative indicated that President Clinton was a relatively easy victor I see your point. They don't really seem to have come to terms with both the fact that Trump won and, more specifically, how he won.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair to lead the Second Referendum campaign then.......
    We can dream.....

    Is there a reason your side use IDS? Do you think he gives the quiet assurance that elderly Leavers crave?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair to lead the Second Referendum campaign then.......
    Yesterday I predicted that would be 60/40 Leave; with Blair leading it, 80/20...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,607

    Wow - Trump appears to take on the NRA:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/28/trump-background-checks-gun-control

    I always hoped that his naturally combative nature wouldn't let him be exclusively right-wing- populists respond to popular moods. If he sticks to it (if big if) that'd be a bit of a game-changer for gun reform and perhaps for Trump's image.

    With the exception of the attempted immigration bans at the beginning of his term when he still had Bannon etc on the team, there's no evidence that the words come out of Trump's mouth have any connection to Trump administration policy.

    Trump clearly doesn't understand what his administration's policy is, and the people around him are just doing normal right-wing things.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair to lead the Second Referendum campaign then.......
    We can dream.....

    Is there a reason your side use IDS? Do you think he gives the quiet assurance that elderly Leavers crave?
    Because he is more trusted than Blair.

    Might be worth letting that sink in.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    Dog has been out, so now hunkered down for the day. BBC saying there could be 20 inches of snow dropped on parts of Dartmoor. Given the wind overnight has already shifted all of yesterday's champagne powder into drifts, that could be fun.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair to lead the Second Referendum campaign then.......
    Ooh, yes please. Blair and Adonis and Clegg would make a fantastic dream team of Remain campaigners. For the Leave side.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair to lead the Second Referendum campaign then.......
    We can dream.....
    With Adonis his number 2.........
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 583
    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    He merely contrasted the consequences of a hard vs soft Brexit, albeit with his preference evident. Unfortunately, the EU is clear in its position, whereas the shambolic Westminster administration is behaving like a rabbit caught in the headlights. The choice, as in 1940, is between confronting an autocratic European empire, at great cost, or meekly accepting its suzerainty. The nature of the European empire may be very different from 1940, but the concept is the same.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    It was interesting that he was trying to get concessions from Brussels .
    Perhaps if May and her crew could take their heads out of their own backsides they might try something useful too. I've never seen such a pitiful bunch as this government. They are an international laughing stock. Blair helps remind them it wasn't always like this.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,389
    DavidL said:

    Mike’s point about the different polling methods is important. You can’t assume either is right. Probably a good idea to ignore the media narrative too if it’s not backed up clearly by polling.

    What does that leave? A market that we should leave alone?

    Given that the media narrative indicated that President Clinton was a relatively easy victor I see your point. They don't really seem to have come to terms with both the fact that Trump won and, more specifically, how he won.
    He won because suburban whites swung to Trump.

    In special elections since 2016 suburban whites have swung hard against Republican candidates.

    Forget the American media narrative about the rock solid Trump support amongst his core of rural white Conservatives, they were always voting Republican and always will in the immediate future. The swing demo was suburban whites and they get far fewer news paper articles written about them but they are moving away.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,848
    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair is a colossal something; colossus he is not.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair to lead the Second Referendum campaign then.......
    We can dream.....
    With Adonis his number 2.........
    Blair IS Adonis
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Good morning, everyone.

    On-topic: indeed, Mr. Smithson. Not a market I'm tempted by.

    Miss Vance, cheers for posting that Trimble tweet. We'll see how much coverage it gets...

    Hope everyone, particularly in the central belt, is taking it easy today. Heavy snow here right now, and it looks like circa six inches or so has settled (always find it hard estimating that, but I did have a small snow drift on the front garden).

    In better weather news, F1 testing is underway: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43190407
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197
    Tories/Leavers still ever so slightly frit when it comes to Blair. Sweet.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,252

    Seem to be conflicting messages about shy Trumpers in 2016 polling.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/shy-voters-probably-arent-why-the-polls-missed-trump/

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/13/why-the-polls-missed-in-2016-was-it-shy-trump-supporters-after-all/?utm_term=.26bfbcf874b5

    The other issue is how linked support is for/against Trump, and voting for your Congressman. I could imagine Democrats quite enthused to land a blow against Trump. Are Trump supporters going to be inclined to go out and support him via the same Congressmen who have been sniffy about him at best - downright anti at worst? I suspect differential polling between the two groups might significantly help the Dems, whatever confusing message the polling is sending.

    But however it pans out in November, the read across to Trump 2020 is very difficult.

    I get the sense the GOP is more or less resigned and even reconciled to Trump, and that if they ignore the chaos and comedy, the man has no real policies of his own so will take whatever the House GOP feeds him. The hostility (so far as I can judge from thousands of miles away) seems to have gone.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    Jonathan said:

    Tories/Leavers still ever so slightly frit when it comes to Blair. Sweet.

    Dream on.

    Blair would be Leave's biggest asset.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Mike’s point about the different polling methods is important. You can’t assume either is right. Probably a good idea to ignore the media narrative too if it’s not backed up clearly by polling.

    What does that leave? A market that we should leave alone?

    Given that the media narrative indicated that President Clinton was a relatively easy victor I see your point. They don't really seem to have come to terms with both the fact that Trump won and, more specifically, how he won.
    He won because suburban whites swung to Trump.

    In special elections since 2016 suburban whites have swung hard against Republican candidates.

    Forget the American media narrative about the rock solid Trump support amongst his core of rural white Conservatives, they were always voting Republican and always will in the immediate future. The swing demo was suburban whites and they get far fewer news paper articles written about them but they are moving away.
    The suburban whites will vote for Trump himself, but not necessarily for Republicans in general. Large numbers of them are likely to abstain in November.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,848

    Seem to be conflicting messages about shy Trumpers in 2016 polling.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/shy-voters-probably-arent-why-the-polls-missed-trump/

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/13/why-the-polls-missed-in-2016-was-it-shy-trump-supporters-after-all/?utm_term=.26bfbcf874b5

    The other issue is how linked support is for/against Trump, and voting for your Congressman. I could imagine Democrats quite enthused to land a blow against Trump. Are Trump supporters going to be inclined to go out and support him via the same Congressmen who have been sniffy about him at best - downright anti at worst? I suspect differential polling between the two groups might significantly help the Dems, whatever confusing message the polling is sending.

    But however it pans out in November, the read across to Trump 2020 is very difficult.

    Trump is now Hopeless -
    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/02/28/trump-hope-hicks-217209
    The White House sounds a pretty depressing place to be right now.

    And Manafort goes on trial in September.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair to lead the Second Referendum campaign then.......
    We can dream.....
    With Adonis his number 2.........
    Blair IS Adonis
    This may come as a shock Roger, but your adoration is not universally shared....

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/10/cameron-best-prime-minister-since-thatcher/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories/Leavers still ever so slightly frit when it comes to Blair. Sweet.

    Dream on.

    Blair would be Leave's biggest asset.

    The more you protest ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,848
    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Mike’s point about the different polling methods is important. You can’t assume either is right. Probably a good idea to ignore the media narrative too if it’s not backed up clearly by polling.

    What does that leave? A market that we should leave alone?

    Given that the media narrative indicated that President Clinton was a relatively easy victor I see your point. They don't really seem to have come to terms with both the fact that Trump won and, more specifically, how he won.
    He won because suburban whites swung to Trump.

    In special elections since 2016 suburban whites have swung hard against Republican candidates.

    Forget the American media narrative about the rock solid Trump support amongst his core of rural white Conservatives, they were always voting Republican and always will in the immediate future. The swing demo was suburban whites and they get far fewer news paper articles written about them but they are moving away.
    The suburban whites will vote for Trump himself, but not necessarily for Republicans in general. Large numbers of them are likely to abstain in November.
    That's assuming Trump will even be a candidate next time around, which is very far from certain.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    Jonathan said:

    Tories/Leavers still ever so slightly frit when it comes to Blair. Sweet.

    Frit? Not at all. Massively welcoming of him doing the EU’s bidding.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair to lead the Second Referendum campaign then.......
    We can dream.....
    With Adonis his number 2.........
    Blair IS Adonis
    This may come as a shock Roger, but your adoration is not universally shared....

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/10/cameron-best-prime-minister-since-thatcher/
    Wow that's an old poll.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories/Leavers still ever so slightly frit when it comes to Blair. Sweet.

    Dream on.

    Blair would be Leave's biggest asset.

    The more you protest ...
    No. I actively encourage him to get back into the fray. Would be hilarious, and almost certainly split the Labour vote. Would be hilarious to see him see how far his star has fallen...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair to lead the Second Referendum campaign then.......
    We can dream.....

    Is there a reason your side use IDS? Do you think he gives the quiet assurance that elderly Leavers crave?
    Because he is more trusted than Blair.

    Might be worth letting that sink in.....
    Do you have any evidence for that preposterous notion?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,848
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories/Leavers still ever so slightly frit when it comes to Blair. Sweet.

    Dream on.

    Blair would be Leave's biggest asset.

    The more you protest ...
    I have to agree with him.
    I am no leaver, and listening to Blair on the radio this morning, I was thinking he's making some good arguments, but it's a shame it's him making them...

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,389
    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Mike’s point about the different polling methods is important. You can’t assume either is right. Probably a good idea to ignore the media narrative too if it’s not backed up clearly by polling.

    What does that leave? A market that we should leave alone?

    Given that the media narrative indicated that President Clinton was a relatively easy victor I see your point. They don't really seem to have come to terms with both the fact that Trump won and, more specifically, how he won.
    He won because suburban whites swung to Trump.

    In special elections since 2016 suburban whites have swung hard against Republican candidates.

    Forget the American media narrative about the rock solid Trump support amongst his core of rural white Conservatives, they were always voting Republican and always will in the immediate future. The swing demo was suburban whites and they get far fewer news paper articles written about them but they are moving away.
    The suburban whites will vote for Trump himself, but not necessarily for Republicans in general. Large numbers of them are likely to abstain in November.
    I think a great many of them were voting against Clinton.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    It was interesting that he was trying to get concessions from Brussels .
    Perhaps if May and her crew could take their heads out of their own backsides they might try something useful too. I've never seen such a pitiful bunch as this government. They are an international laughing stock. Blair helps remind them it wasn't always like this.
    No - we could be going to war! Bombing the shit out of the innocent.... God, I miss Tony Blair.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,399
    O/T

    Going through my own planes trains and automobiles....I’m desperate to get home after a couple of weeks in Italy....
    Tuesday after sitting excitedly on the plane at Florence, on time, plane taxiing, there is a strange noise..we are marshalled off and after a long wait offered a refund
    Wednesday....the London flight is delayed and I do not fancy landing into Gatwick at some god foresaken time so I buy another ticket for.....
    Thursday.... looking out of the window in Florence there is heavy snow and the airport is completely disrupted according to the news......so another day here beckons..

    There is always tomorrow.....but thanks to Brexit this is costing me a heck of a lot more money....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair to lead the Second Referendum campaign then.......
    We can dream.....

    Is there a reason your side use IDS? Do you think he gives the quiet assurance that elderly Leavers crave?
    Because he is more trusted than Blair.

    Might be worth letting that sink in.....
    Do you have any evidence for that preposterous notion?
    Leave 52
    Remain 48....

    But more seriously, given Blair is the least trusted politician on the MP, I think one can probably infer IDS is more trusted:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-tony-blair-regarded-as-least-trustworthy-politician-to-lead-campaign-for-uk-to-stay-10298489.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories/Leavers still ever so slightly frit when it comes to Blair. Sweet.

    Dream on.

    Blair would be Leave's biggest asset.

    The more you protest ...
    I think the more we see of Tone on TV, the better.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392
    On topic, i have no idea what will happen this November but it wouldn't surprise me if they narrowly failed to take the House.

    Too many Democrats simply hate Trump too much, and it's clouding their judgment.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,364
    Politics is driving the UK government’s Brexit approach. May is terrified of the Loons on the Tory right and so is incapable of coming up with any coherent solution to the Irish border problems the Leave vote created - and which, of course, the Leave campaign said did not exist. The same terror caused ger to trigger Article 50 without having nailed down the UK’s strategy for departure and creating the red lines which are now so constraining her.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Mike’s point about the different polling methods is important. You can’t assume either is right. Probably a good idea to ignore the media narrative too if it’s not backed up clearly by polling.

    What does that leave? A market that we should leave alone?

    Given that the media narrative indicated that President Clinton was a relatively easy victor I see your point. They don't really seem to have come to terms with both the fact that Trump won and, more specifically, how he won.
    He won because suburban whites swung to Trump.

    In special elections since 2016 suburban whites have swung hard against Republican candidates.

    Forget the American media narrative about the rock solid Trump support amongst his core of rural white Conservatives, they were always voting Republican and always will in the immediate future. The swing demo was suburban whites and they get far fewer news paper articles written about them but they are moving away.
    The suburban whites will vote for Trump himself, but not necessarily for Republicans in general. Large numbers of them are likely to abstain in November.
    I think a great many of them were voting against Clinton.
    I’m sure some of them were, yes. The Democrats need to choose a candidate for 2020 that will appeal to the real middle America outside the coasts. If they spend the next presidential election season talking about bathrooms again, when their Republican opponent is talking about jobs, they’ll lose again.

    It’s a shame Joe Biden is probably too old now.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories/Leavers still ever so slightly frit when it comes to Blair. Sweet.

    Dream on.

    Blair would be Leave's biggest asset.

    The more you protest ...
    No. I actively encourage him to get back into the fray. Would be hilarious, and almost certainly split the Labour vote. Would be hilarious to see him see how far his star has fallen...
    Does it ever occur to you that people listen to the arguments? There are very few who advocate their position as persuasively and with such erudition as Blair. Certainly not IDS!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392

    Wow - Trump appears to take on the NRA:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/28/trump-background-checks-gun-control

    I always hoped that his naturally combative nature wouldn't let him be exclusively right-wing- populists respond to popular moods. If he sticks to it (if big if) that'd be a bit of a game-changer for gun reform and perhaps for Trump's image.

    With the exception of the attempted immigration bans at the beginning of his term when he still had Bannon etc on the team, there's no evidence that the words come out of Trump's mouth have any connection to Trump administration policy.

    Trump clearly doesn't understand what his administration's policy is, and the people around him are just doing normal right-wing things.
    Actually, I think Trump has largely faithfully attempting to implement his campaign programme, whatever you may think of it.

    I've been surprised at that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    Blair to lead the Second Referendum campaign then.......
    We can dream.....
    With Adonis his number 2.........
    Blair IS Adonis
    This may come as a shock Roger, but your adoration is not universally shared....

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/10/cameron-best-prime-minister-since-thatcher/
    Wow that's an old poll.
    You know of a more recent one?

    You think trust in Blair has grown?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617

    Politics is driving the UK government’s Brexit approach. May is terrified of the Loons on the Tory right and so is incapable of coming up with any coherent solution to the Irish border problems the Leave vote created - and which, of course, the Leave campaign said did not exist. The same terror caused ger to trigger Article 50 without having nailed down the UK’s strategy for departure and creating the red lines which are now so constraining her.


    Lord Trimble argues that politics is driving the Irish government's approach - or did you not read that, just pasted one of your 'loons' posts?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,389
    There's some interesting tidbits that the current "pay packet" increase that many workers are seeeingn in America due to the tax bill (which is polling way better than before it passed) is because the withholding tables are wrong and come next tax year they'll be hit with an unexpected tax bill.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,466
    edited March 1
    There's an objective problem, as everyone concedes, and the Commission has done nothing more than quote back the fudge that Mrs May agreed in December - that failing anything better, NI would remain in close regulatory links with Eire. If the Government has a workable better idea, let's hear it. Windy rhetoric won't do the job.

    That said, I think this is just the middle stage in the usual Euro-negotiation cycle:

    Polite discussion - time-wasting - recriminations - crisis - recriminations - fresh talks - late-night sessions - fudged deal

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited March 1
    An 8% lead for the Democrats should be more than enough for them to take control in the midterms, indeed their average poll lead of 8.4% gives them precisely that. Last time the Democrats took control of the House in 2006 a lead of 8% translated into a Democratic House majority of 15 seats and a lead of 31 seats over the Republicans.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2006

    Don't read too much into the midterms and the 2020 Presidential election though, both Clinton in 1994 and Obama in 2010 saw their party lose control of Congress and Reagan's party suffered heavy losses in 1982 and all were comfortably re elected two years later. George W Bush saw the Republicans make net gains in the 2002 midterms but 2 years later had he lost Ohio it would have been President Kerry. Similarly Carter's Democrats, although losing seats in 1978 kept control of Congress but two years later he lost his bid for re election to Ronald Reagan
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,154
    The new map in Pennsylvania is estimated to be worth 3-4 house seats for the Democrats.
    So I'm not sure we can assume that 8% estimate still holds.

    To be honest I'm not really sure where that 8% even comes from.
    In 2006 the Dems won the popular vote by 8% and comfortably had a majority, 233 - 202.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,364
    edited March 1

    Politics is driving the UK government’s Brexit approach. May is terrified of the Loons on the Tory right and so is incapable of coming up with any coherent solution to the Irish border problems the Leave vote created - and which, of course, the Leave campaign said did not exist. The same terror caused ger to trigger Article 50 without having nailed down the UK’s strategy for departure and creating the red lines which are now so constraining her.


    Lord Trimble argues that politics is driving the Irish government's approach - or did you not read that, just pasted one of your 'loons' posts?

    Yes, Lord Trimble’s post seems implies that politics is not driving the British government’s approach. I was merely pointing out that it is. May’s only aim is to do what is necessary to remain PM. Of course, Fine Gael is the most pro-UK of the major Irish parties, so if Lord Trimble thinks a different government in Dublin might take a different approach then he is likely to be disappointed.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875
    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories/Leavers still ever so slightly frit when it comes to Blair. Sweet.

    Dream on.

    Blair would be Leave's biggest asset.

    The more you protest ...
    No. I actively encourage him to get back into the fray. Would be hilarious, and almost certainly split the Labour vote. Would be hilarious to see him see how far his star has fallen...
    Does it ever occur to you that people listen to the arguments? There are very few who advocate their position as persuasively and with such erudition as Blair. Certainly not IDS!
    Arguments are important, rhetoric is too, but the medium counts for a lot - especially in the context of a democratic decision to reject 50 years of Foriegn policy re Europe.

    It's telling that those who could say the same things and get a better reception (Javid is a good example) have the self awareness to realise that telling the people they made the wrong decision is the best way to guarantee support for Leave.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,364

    On topic, i have no idea what will happen this November but it wouldn't surprise me if they narrowly failed to take the House.

    Too many Democrats simply hate Trump too much, and it's clouding their judgment.

    But it is motivating them. The swings to Democrats in special Congressional elections have been spectacular in many cases. That said, there is probably a quiet Trump vote out there and the recent tax cuts might create some traction. Whatever happens, the US - like the UK - is horribly fivided.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617

    There's an objective problem, as everyone concedes, and the Commission has done nothing more than quote back the fudge that Mrs May agreed in December
    Not quite - its 'interpreted' what was agreed - with some significant omissions.......like removing the reference to 'nothing shall interfere with NI-GB trade'.......
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,389
    rkrkrk said:

    The new map in Pennsylvania is estimated to be worth 3-4 house seats for the Democrats.
    So I'm not sure we can assume that 8% estimate still holds.

    To be honest I'm not really sure where that 8% even comes from.
    In 2006 the Dems won the popular vote by 8% and comfortably had a majority, 233 - 202.

    In 2010 onwards electoral maps were redrawn by Republican dominated state legislatures.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197
    edited March 1
    Sadly for Brexit lovers May has not been able to develop arguments convincingly beyond her soundbites . The fact Brexit is still contested owes much to the vacuum she created.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    Jolyon now arguing that Miller lost because the rule of law is breaking down.....no loser like a sore loser, eh.....

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,364

    There's an objective problem, as everyone concedes, and the Commission has done nothing more than quote back the fudge that Mrs May agreed in December
    Not quite - its 'interpreted' what was agreed - with some significant omissions.......like removing the reference to 'nothing shall interfere with NI-GB trade'.......

    Nothing need interfere with GB NI trade. That’s an internal matter for the British government.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,675
    It is a clear co-ordinated attack on Brexit by those who consider themselves superior to the ordinary voter but TM will stand firm as she showed to popular acclaim yesterday
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Mike’s point about the different polling methods is important. You can’t assume either is right. Probably a good idea to ignore the media narrative too if it’s not backed up clearly by polling.

    What does that leave? A market that we should leave alone?

    Given that the media narrative indicated that President Clinton was a relatively easy victor I see your point. They don't really seem to have come to terms with both the fact that Trump won and, more specifically, how he won.
    He won because suburban whites swung to Trump.

    In special elections since 2016 suburban whites have swung hard against Republican candidates.

    Forget the American media narrative about the rock solid Trump support amongst his core of rural white Conservatives, they were always voting Republican and always will in the immediate future. The swing demo was suburban whites and they get far fewer news paper articles written about them but they are moving away.
    The suburban whites will vote for Trump himself, but not necessarily for Republicans in general. Large numbers of them are likely to abstain in November.
    I think a great many of them were voting against Clinton.
    I’m sure some of them were, yes. The Democrats need to choose a candidate for 2020 that will appeal to the real middle America outside the coasts. If they spend the next presidential election season talking about bathrooms again, when their Republican opponent is talking about jobs, they’ll lose again.

    It’s a shame Joe Biden is probably too old now.
    Historically the odds do not favour the Democrats in 2020, no President has failed to be re elected after his party has held the White House for just 1 term since WW2 bar Jimmy Carter in 1980.

    However the odds do favour the Democrats taking the House in the midterms a bit more. Since WW2 a first term President has seen his party lose control of the House 4 times in the midterms in 1946, 1954, 1994 and 2010 and the opposition party kept control of the House and increased its majority in 1970 and 1982 and 1990
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241
    Snow news: Wor lass had to abandon her journey to work when the car started sliding down hill. Having to use the kerb as a braking mechanism isn't ideal.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,364

    There's an objective problem, as everyone concedes, and the Commission has done nothing more than quote back the fudge that Mrs May agreed in December - that failing anything better, NI would remain in close regulatory links with Eire. If the Government has a workable better idea, let's hear it. Windy rhetoric won't do the job.

    That said, I think this is just the middle stage in the usual Euro-negotiation cycle:

    Polite discussion - time-wasting - recriminations - crisis - recriminations - fresh talks - late-night sessions - fudged deal

    It all looks very coordinated to me. The Commission issues a draft, the Tories get to attack it and stand up for Britain, then the negotiations begin, some of the language is changed, victory is proclaimed and the UK is in a customs union with the EU, with the sudelined loons howling at the moon. Or something!!

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Palmer, that's incorrect. At no stage did the UK Government agree to an internal division, to customs barriers *within* the United Kingdom.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    There's an objective problem, as everyone concedes, and the Commission has done nothing more than quote back the fudge that Mrs May agreed in December - that failing anything better, NI would remain in close regulatory links with Eire. If the Government has a workable better idea, let's hear it. Windy rhetoric won't do the job.

    That said, I think this is just the middle stage in the usual Euro-negotiation cycle:

    Polite discussion - time-wasting - recriminations - crisis - recriminations - fresh talks - late-night sessions - fudged deal

    We should probably just sit on our hands until the late-night sessions stage. Indeed, outward appearence suggests we are doing just that. Let's just go in at 11 pm on say 27th March 2019, with Boris and The Moggster each end of an outsize comedy cheque for £40,000,000,000.00. And Mrs May with a box of matches.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617

    There's an objective problem, as everyone concedes, and the Commission has done nothing more than quote back the fudge that Mrs May agreed in December
    Not quite - its 'interpreted' what was agreed - with some significant omissions.......like removing the reference to 'nothing shall interfere with NI-GB trade'.......

    Nothing need interfere with GB NI trade. That’s an internal matter for the British government.
    Why was it in the agreement but removed from the legal text? Why take it out?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197

    It is a clear co-ordinated attack on Brexit by those who consider themselves superior to the ordinary voter but TM will stand firm as she showed to popular acclaim yesterday
    That was a party political broadcast by the Theresa May fanzine.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    Snow news: Wor lass had to abandon her journey to work when the car started sliding down hill. Having to use the kerb as a braking mechanism isn't ideal.

    On the plus side, she now has a better understanding of the terror of the four-man bobsleigh.....
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 549
    daodao said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    He merely contrasted the consequences of a hard vs soft Brexit, albeit with his preference evident. Unfortunately, the EU is clear in its position, whereas the shambolic Westminster administration is behaving like a rabbit caught in the headlights. The choice, as in 1940, is between confronting an autocratic European empire, at great cost, or meekly accepting its suzerainty. The nature of the European empire may be very different from 1940, but the concept is the same.
    And this is the truth.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,675
    Jonathan said:

    It is a clear co-ordinated attack on Brexit by those who consider themselves superior to the ordinary voter but TM will stand firm as she showed to popular acclaim yesterday
    That was a party political broadcast by the Theresa May fanzine.
    No it was an inconvenient statement of fact to remainers
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,488

    Snow news: Wor lass had to abandon her journey to work when the car started sliding down hill. Having to use the kerb as a braking mechanism isn't ideal.

    On the plus side, she now has a better understanding of the terror of the four-man bobsleigh.....
    And the seminal importance of differential front end grip.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,773
    It's nonsense to pretend that David Trimble is some kind of impartial sage. His tribe like the border because it defines their identity in concrete terms. Which is why they put it there a hundred years ago. He certainly doesn't speak for the other tribe that wants it removed.

    On a related matter someone in Northern Ireland, who I don't think is a supporter of Sinn Fein, explained why he doesn't expect them to take their seats at Westminster. SF think Brexit and the fallout is doing more for a united Ireland than decades of bombing and shooting.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197

    Jonathan said:

    It is a clear co-ordinated attack on Brexit by those who consider themselves superior to the ordinary voter but TM will stand firm as she showed to popular acclaim yesterday
    That was a party political broadcast by the Theresa May fanzine.
    No it was an inconvenient statement of fact to remainers
    Private Eye have an column for this sort of stuff.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,907
    Never heard of the guy and I don't know which party he belongs to, but he clearly shouldn't be an MP. If he wants to be a melodramatic tart he should go on the stage.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    There's an objective problem, as everyone concedes, and the Commission has done nothing more than quote back the fudge that Mrs May agreed in December
    Not quite - its 'interpreted' what was agreed - with some significant omissions.......like removing the reference to 'nothing shall interfere with NI-GB trade'.......

    Nothing need interfere with GB NI trade. That’s an internal matter for the British government.
    Why was it in the agreement but removed from the legal text? Why take it out?
    Because Barnier is

    a) a confrontational shit

    b) an incompetent shit or

    c) French
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Z, it goes almost without saying.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,675

    Never heard of the guy and I don't know which party he belongs to, but he clearly shouldn't be an MP. If he wants to be a melodramatic tart he should go on the stage.
    You don't like the message but Barnier put his foot in it yesterday big time
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490

    Jolyon now arguing that Miller lost because the rule of law is breaking down.....no loser like a sore loser, eh.....

    Miller won. It's more that Jolyon Maugham won't take yes for an answer, and so has to come up with a conspiracy theory.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,488
    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories/Leavers still ever so slightly frit when it comes to Blair. Sweet.

    Dream on.

    Blair would be Leave's biggest asset.

    The more you protest ...
    No. I actively encourage him to get back into the fray. Would be hilarious, and almost certainly split the Labour vote. Would be hilarious to see him see how far his star has fallen...
    Does it ever occur to you that people listen to the arguments? There are very few who advocate their position as persuasively and with such erudition as Blair. Certainly not IDS!
    The question was about trust, though. There is no one in or out of public life about whom I would be less certain than I am about Blair that he said only what he believed to be true or that if he said he would in the future do something, he fully intended to do it. People pay attention to where the arguments are coming from.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,364

    There's an objective problem, as everyone concedes, and the Commission has done nothing more than quote back the fudge that Mrs May agreed in December
    Not quite - its 'interpreted' what was agreed - with some significant omissions.......like removing the reference to 'nothing shall interfere with NI-GB trade'.......

    Nothing need interfere with GB NI trade. That’s an internal matter for the British government.
    Why was it in the agreement but removed from the legal text? Why take it out?

    Because it’s a legal document and its scope does not include proscribing how the UK government must manage its internal trading arrangements.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,675

    There's an objective problem, as everyone concedes, and the Commission has done nothing more than quote back the fudge that Mrs May agreed in December
    Not quite - its 'interpreted' what was agreed - with some significant omissions.......like removing the reference to 'nothing shall interfere with NI-GB trade'.......

    Nothing need interfere with GB NI trade. That’s an internal matter for the British government.
    Why was it in the agreement but removed from the legal text? Why take it out?
    Because Barnier is

    a) a confrontational shit

    b) an incompetent shit or

    c) French
    All of those
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,113
    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    And remain still lost to these so called minnows.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,907

    Never heard of the guy and I don't know which party he belongs to, but he clearly shouldn't be an MP. If he wants to be a melodramatic tart he should go on the stage.
    You don't like the message but Barnier put his foot in it yesterday big time
    I followed the news reasonably closely yesterday, but I have no idea to what you are referring.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,364

    Mr. Palmer, that's incorrect. At no stage did the UK Government agree to an internal division, to customs barriers *within* the United Kingdom.

    And nothing in yesterday’s draft requires that.

    If Brexiteers believe no border between NI and the RoI is necessary post-Brexit with one in the CU and the other outside, why do they believe one would be needed between NI and the mainland if the former was inside the CU and the other outside?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490
    FF43 said:

    It's nonsense to pretend that David Trimble is some kind of impartial sage. His tribe like the border because it defines their identity in concrete terms. Which is why they put it there a hundred years ago. He certainly doesn't speak for the other tribe that wants it removed.

    On a related matter someone in Northern Ireland, who I don't think is a supporter of Sinn Fein, explained why he doesn't expect them to take their seats at Westminster. SF think Brexit and the fallout is doing more for a united Ireland than decades of bombing and shooting.
    Taking their seats at Westminster would amount to national apostasy, and quite possibly put the MP's in danger. The objection would remain, even if the UK were a Republic.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,349
    It's a mute point from Nick Robinson because this riven government doesn't have the fantest idea what BREXIT actually means. A soundbite does not a policy make.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,488

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair on Radio 4 showing the contrast between the minnows who are leading Brexit and Colossi who are opposing them.

    And remain still lost to these so called minnows.
    A point which astounds me anew several times a day, still. One could make a fortune selling the remoaners T shirts saying OUTWITTED BY A MORON, THRASHED BY A 9 STONE WEAKLING, or just ICELAND 2, ENGLAND 1.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197
    JackW said:

    It's a mute point from Nick Robinson because this riven government doesn't have the fantest idea what BREXIT actually means. A soundbite does not a policy make.
    And that's the key problem. There is nothing solid here, just soundbites and wishes.
This discussion has been closed.