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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we wait for tomorrow’s big Brexit speech from Mrs. May

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  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    The problem with these kind of tariffs is that it's a slippery slope:

    First, you put it on the steel.
    But that makes US made cars more expensive, so you put it on foreign cars.
    This results in a tit-for-tat, where the Chinese kill their Boeing orders.
    Boeing then complains about competition from Airbus in the US, and there are tariffs on imports of other airplanes.

    I don't really want us to go down the plughole of protectionism, like we did in the 1920s and 30s.
    Protectionism on the rise. The UK's self-removal from the world's largest free trade area could not have been more ill-timed.
    The EU is not even close to being the world's largest free trade area. That is one of the most bald faced lies of the referendum campaign.
    My guess is that Switzerland is the country with the greatest tariff free access in the world: EU, plus EFTA agreements, plus a flawed, but extant, agreement with China.

    But I'm thinking that the EU comes next.

    Where do you think you get greater FTA access?
    NAFTA is clearly a larger FTA than the EU. A much bigger economy.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,995
    glw said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    We are going to look back in disbelief, as we push our supermarket trolleys down the nuclear winter roads, at the fact that on the day of Putin going all Kim Il Jong on the missile front, we were bickering about Irish customs checks.

    ++

    When the stories about Putin's enormous torpedo first surfaced a lot of "clever" people dismissed it as disinformation. Which might have made sense if it was not for the new submarines* Russia was building which appear to have a bloody great torpedo tube.

    If nothing else I think we can now declare that Cold War 2.0 has begun.

    * Three of them so far; one built, one being built, and one on the drawing board.
    Yasen class boats (which I assume is what is under discussion) use standard 650mm/550mm Sov/Russian torpedoes.

    I once had a visit aboard an Udaloy class Pacific Fleet Destroyer. They had only painted one side of the ship (the side that faced the dock) and had painted over every grease nipple and electrical connector on the ship. I am fairly confident that none of the weapons would have actually worked. The entire vessel reeked of stale piss. The Northern Fleet is supposed to be better.
  • Options
    GreenHeronGreenHeron Posts: 148




    Who are these people that always won, then lost for the first time in 2016?



    The big corporations - who, as Stuart Rose pointed out, have been able to reduce their wage bill by importing entire workforces, all at the expense of many countries to the south and east of the EU area, and at the expense of entire working class communities in non-London parts of the UK.

    The technocrats like Blair and Mandelson, the banks who enriched themselves on Greece's misfortune, the 1% ers whose nanny and restuarant bills are reduced thanks to overseas imports. The globalists such as George Soros who see this as an important step towards a world government. The political class like Kinnock and Nick Clegg who had a gravy train to jump on after the grubby business of trying to be elected.

    All of the above have had things very much their own way at least since Thatcher left, and have made themselves very very rich as a result. These people are used to being top of the tree, and are determined to stay there at any cost - and they're not fighting this fight with altruistic motives, it is 100% self interest.

    None of which, by the way, means that Brexit is the right decision or will make us better off...
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,057
    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    The problem with these kind of tariffs is that it's a slippery slope:

    First, you put it on the steel.
    But that makes US made cars more expensive, so you put it on foreign cars.
    This results in a tit-for-tat, where the Chinese kill their Boeing orders.
    Boeing then complains about competition from Airbus in the US, and there are tariffs on imports of other airplanes.

    I don't really want us to go down the plughole of protectionism, like we did in the 1920s and 30s.
    Protectionism on the rise. The UK's self-removal from the world's largest free trade area could not have been more ill-timed.
    The EU is not even close to being the world's largest free trade area. That is one of the most bald faced lies of the referendum campaign.
    My guess is that Switzerland is the country with the greatest tariff free access in the world: EU, plus EFTA agreements, plus a flawed, but extant, agreement with China.

    But I'm thinking that the EU comes next.

    Where do you think you get greater FTA access?
    NAFTA is clearly a larger FTA than the EU. A much bigger economy.
    NAFTA does not have frictionless trade like the EU - the comparator with the EU would be the USA.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    edited March 2018
    I expect Theresa May's speech to be a humdinger. She will.enthrall her audience as she lays out in clear and precise detail how she will carry out her imaginative and ambitious plan.while keeping a firm grasp of her red lines. The EU and critics in her own party will be mightily impressed and will have no option but.to fall into line.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    FF43 said:

    I expect Theresa May's speech to be a humdinger. She will.enthrall her audience as she lays out in clear and precise detail how she will carry out her imaginative and ambitious plan.while keeping a firm grasp of her red lines. The EU and critics in her own party will be mightily impressed and will have no option but.to fall into line.

    Step away from the spliff mate
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,995
    FF43 said:

    I expect Theresa May's speech to be a humdinger. She will.enthrall her audience as she lays out in clear and precise detail how she will carry out her imaginative and ambitious plan.while keeping a firm grasp of her red lines. The EU and critics in her own party will be mightily impressed and will have no option but.to fall into line.

    Do you have exclusive access to Big G's analysis of her speech? Because it sounds like it...
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Dura_Ace said:

    glw said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    We are going to look back in disbelief, as we push our supermarket trolleys down the nuclear winter roads, at the fact that on the day of Putin going all Kim Il Jong on the missile front, we were bickering about Irish customs checks.

    ++

    When the stories about Putin's enormous torpedo first surfaced a lot of "clever" people dismissed it as disinformation. Which might have made sense if it was not for the new submarines* Russia was building which appear to have a bloody great torpedo tube.

    If nothing else I think we can now declare that Cold War 2.0 has begun.

    * Three of them so far; one built, one being built, and one on the drawing board.
    Yasen class boats (which I assume is what is under discussion) use standard 650mm/550mm Sov/Russian torpedoes.

    I once had a visit aboard an Udaloy class Pacific Fleet Destroyer. They had only painted one side of the ship (the side that faced the dock) and had painted over every grease nipple and electrical connector on the ship. I am fairly confident that none of the weapons would have actually worked. The entire vessel reeked of stale piss. The Northern Fleet is supposed to be better.
    Some of the human material hardly better
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Roger said:

    David Miliband. Another colossus among pygmies. How could the Tory Brexiteers have become so abject. I saw Boris Johnson on TV this evening and he didn't even look interesting as the clown he was trying to be.

    Cough Rendition cpugh
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    The problem with these kind of tariffs is that it's a slippery slope:

    First, you put it on the steel.
    But that makes US made cars more expensive, so you put it on foreign cars.
    This results in a tit-for-tat, where the Chinese kill their Boeing orders.
    Boeing then complains about competition from Airbus in the US, and there are tariffs on imports of other airplanes.

    I don't really want us to go down the plughole of protectionism, like we did in the 1920s and 30s.
    Protectionism on the rise. The UK's self-removal from the world's largest free trade area could not have been more ill-timed.
    The EU is not even close to being the world's largest free trade area. That is one of the most bald faced lies of the referendum campaign.
    My guess is that Switzerland is the country with the greatest tariff free access in the world: EU, plus EFTA agreements, plus a flawed, but extant, agreement with China.

    But I'm thinking that the EU comes next.

    Where do you think you get greater FTA access?
    NAFTA is clearly a larger FTA than the EU. A much bigger economy.
    Err sure.

    But the US has bugger all FTAs, so you're much better off being in the EU or EFTA.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    kle4 said:

    I was just amused by the purported quote that their weapons were 'invincible in the face of all existing and future systems of both missile defence and air defence'

    'All future systems' Russia? That is some impressive development to assume the people of the 29th century won't be able to come up with a counter measure.
    If they use it now, it will ensure there will be no one around in the 29th century.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited March 2018
    Floater said:

    Roger said:

    David Miliband. Another colossus among pygmies. How could the Tory Brexiteers have become so abject. I saw Boris Johnson on TV this evening and he didn't even look interesting as the clown he was trying to be.

    Cough Rendition cpugh
    Is this the same David "I don't know the capital of Brazil and I caused such a diplomatic incident in India they had to send out Peter Mandelson on an emergency flight to try and smooth things over" Miliband?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    stjohn said:

    Anyone watching This Week? I haven’t watched it for ages. It seems to have morphed into “The Good Old Days”.

    The band aren't too bad, the rest not up to much.

    I was taken on #BBCQT how none could suggest a plausible way of stopping Blackpool's continuing decline, the best Farage could come up with was fracking their homes.

    Let them eat Brexit, they deserve it.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    edited March 2018
    Roger said:

    David Miliband. Another colossus among pygmies. How could the Tory Brexiteers have become so abject. I saw Boris Johnson on TV this evening and he didn't even look interesting as the clown he was trying to be.

    Had David Miliband been elected Labour leader in 2010 and won the 2015 or 2017 general elections we would have had yet more years of Blairite/Cameroon/Cleggite consensus. The votes for Brexit and Corbyn were rejections of that consensus which has dominated British politics since 1997 and arguably 1990 if you include Major too after his anti Brexit remarks this week
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,057
    edited March 2018

    Floater said:

    Roger said:

    David Miliband. Another colossus among pygmies. How could the Tory Brexiteers have become so abject. I saw Boris Johnson on TV this evening and he didn't even look interesting as the clown he was trying to be.

    Cough Rendition cpugh
    Is this the same David "I don't know the capital of Brazil and I caused such a diplomatic incident in India they had to send out Peter Mandelson on an emergency flight to try and smooth things over" Miliband?
    Talking of diplomatic incidents in India, Justin Trudeau hasn't covered himself in glory.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/trudeau-india-trip-1.4556209

    To recap: the Canadian government returned from a bridge-building gambit during which it invited a convicted would-be assassin to a special event with the prime minister only to accuse the Indian government of orchestrating the invitation.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited March 2018
    Foxy said:

    stjohn said:

    Anyone watching This Week? I haven’t watched it for ages. It seems to have morphed into “The Good Old Days”.

    The band aren't too bad, the rest not up to much.

    I was taken on #BBCQT how none could suggest a plausible way of stopping Blackpool's continuing decline, the best Farage could come up with was fracking their homes.

    Let them eat Brexit, they deserve it.
    Excluding Ken Clarke, I am not exactly sure the others were exactly the UKs highest quality calibre panelists when it comes to political insight.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    FF43 said:

    I expect Theresa May's speech to be a humdinger. She will.enthrall her audience as she lays out in clear and precise detail how she will carry out her imaginative and ambitious plan.while keeping a firm grasp of her red lines. The EU and critics in her own party will be mightily impressed and will have no option but.to fall into line.

    Do you think they will be making Hollywod movies about her speech in 80 years time?

    We will mark red lines on the bills, on the backbenches on the squash courts and on the playgrounds and we shall for ever surrender!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Floater said:

    Roger said:

    David Miliband. Another colossus among pygmies. How could the Tory Brexiteers have become so abject. I saw Boris Johnson on TV this evening and he didn't even look interesting as the clown he was trying to be.

    Cough Rendition cpugh
    Is this the same David "I don't know the capital of Brazil and I caused such a diplomatic incident in India they had to send out Peter Mandelson on an emergency flight to try and smooth things over" Miliband?
    Talking of diplomatic incidents in India, Justin Trudeau hasn't covered himself in glory.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/trudeau-india-trip-1.4556209

    To recap: the Canadian government returned from a bridge-building gambit during which it invited a convicted would-be assassin to a special event with the prime minister only to accuse the Indian government of orchestrating the invitation.
    We did this the other day. The guy is a thick Tony Blair.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989

    Floater said:

    Roger said:

    David Miliband. Another colossus among pygmies. How could the Tory Brexiteers have become so abject. I saw Boris Johnson on TV this evening and he didn't even look interesting as the clown he was trying to be.

    Cough Rendition cpugh
    Is this the same David "I don't know the capital of Brazil and I caused such a diplomatic incident in India they had to send out Peter Mandelson on an emergency flight to try and smooth things over" Miliband?
    Talking of diplomatic incidents in India, Justin Trudeau hasn't covered himself in glory.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/trudeau-india-trip-1.4556209

    To recap: the Canadian government returned from a bridge-building gambit during which it invited a convicted would-be assassin to a special event with the prime minister only to accuse the Indian government of orchestrating the invitation.
    With a third of politicians in the Indian Parliament having criminal convictions not something easy to avoid
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-24269113
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    edited March 2018

    Floater said:

    Roger said:

    David Miliband. Another colossus among pygmies. How could the Tory Brexiteers have become so abject. I saw Boris Johnson on TV this evening and he didn't even look interesting as the clown he was trying to be.

    Cough Rendition cpugh
    Is this the same David "I don't know the capital of Brazil and I caused such a diplomatic incident in India they had to send out Peter Mandelson on an emergency flight to try and smooth things over" Miliband?
    Talking of diplomatic incidents in India, Justin Trudeau hasn't covered himself in glory.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/trudeau-india-trip-1.4556209

    To recap: the Canadian government returned from a bridge-building gambit during which it invited a convicted would-be assassin to a special event with the prime minister only to accuse the Indian government of orchestrating the invitation.
    We did this the other day. The guy is a thick Tony Blair.
    He is the sexiest world leader though apparently
    https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/sexiest-world-leaders/
    https://hottestheadsofstate.com/list/
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,651
    Don't know if this is the YP's scoop - but good news nonetheless:

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969369373000466433
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    The problem with these kind of tariffs is that it's a slippery slope:

    First, you put it on the steel.
    But that makes US made cars more expensive, so you put it on foreign cars.
    This results in a tit-for-tat, where the Chinese kill their Boeing orders.
    Boeing then complains about competition from Airbus in the US, and there are tariffs on imports of other airplanes.

    I don't really want us to go down the plughole of protectionism, like we did in the 1920s and 30s.
    Protectionism on the rise. The UK's self-removal from the world's largest free trade area could not have been more ill-timed.
    The EU is not even close to being the world's largest free trade area. That is one of the most bald faced lies of the referendum campaign.
    My guess is that Switzerland is the country with the greatest tariff free access in the world: EU, plus EFTA agreements, plus a flawed, but extant, agreement with China.

    But I'm thinking that the EU comes next.

    Where do you think you get greater FTA access?
    NAFTA is clearly a larger FTA than the EU. A much bigger economy.
    Err sure.

    But the US has bugger all FTAs, so you're much better off being in the EU or EFTA.
    Australia has a FTA with both the USA, China and Japan - we don't have an agreement with any of them.

    Even without considering the rest of what will be covered by TPP that's combined an area with three times the GDP of the EU27.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Don't know if this is the YP's scoop - but good news nonetheless:

    twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969369373000466433

    Despite Brexit...
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,057

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    The problem with these kind of tariffs is that it's a slippery slope:

    First, you put it on the steel.
    But that makes US made cars more expensive, so you put it on foreign cars.
    This results in a tit-for-tat, where the Chinese kill their Boeing orders.
    Boeing then complains about competition from Airbus in the US, and there are tariffs on imports of other airplanes.

    I don't really want us to go down the plughole of protectionism, like we did in the 1920s and 30s.
    Protectionism on the rise. The UK's self-removal from the world's largest free trade area could not have been more ill-timed.
    The EU is not even close to being the world's largest free trade area. That is one of the most bald faced lies of the referendum campaign.
    My guess is that Switzerland is the country with the greatest tariff free access in the world: EU, plus EFTA agreements, plus a flawed, but extant, agreement with China.

    But I'm thinking that the EU comes next.

    Where do you think you get greater FTA access?
    NAFTA is clearly a larger FTA than the EU. A much bigger economy.
    Err sure.

    But the US has bugger all FTAs, so you're much better off being in the EU or EFTA.
    Australia has a FTA with both the USA, China and Japan - we don't have an agreement with any of them.

    Even without considering the rest of what will be covered by TPP that's combined an area with three times the GDP of the EU27.
    Never mind the quality, feel the width...

    If you're going to look at FTAs you need to look at the content, not just the fact they exist.
  • Options
    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,779
    Well I stuck with “This Week”. Fun but quite surreal. Brian Blessed didn’t appear to be fully in tune with the zeitgeist.
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    The problem with these kind of tariffs is that it's a slippery slope:

    First, you put it on the steel.
    But that makes US made cars more expensive, so you put it on foreign cars.
    This results in a tit-for-tat, where the Chinese kill their Boeing orders.
    Boeing then complains about competition from Airbus in the US, and there are tariffs on imports of other airplanes.

    I don't really want us to go down the plughole of protectionism, like we did in the 1920s and 30s.
    Protectionism on the rise. The UK's self-removal from the world's largest free trade area could not have been more ill-timed.
    The EU is not even close to being the world's largest free trade area. That is one of the most bald faced lies of the referendum campaign.
    My guess is that Switzerland is the country with the greatest tariff free access in the world: EU, plus EFTA agreements, plus a flawed, but extant, agreement with China.

    But I'm thinking that the EU comes next.

    Where do you think you get greater FTA access?
    NAFTA is clearly a larger FTA than the EU. A much bigger economy.
    Err sure.

    But the US has bugger all FTAs, so you're much better off being in the EU or EFTA.
    Perhaps the obvious outcome of this conversation is that FTAs don't matter all that much. Trade is built by business and relationships between business, not by politicians. The US is still the most dynamic economy in the World despite their lack of FTAs. Perhaps it is time that we realised that a bit of friction is not going to make that much difference.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,057

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    The problem with these kind of tariffs is that it's a slippery slope:

    First, you put it on the steel.
    But that makes US made cars more expensive, so you put it on foreign cars.
    This results in a tit-for-tat, where the Chinese kill their Boeing orders.
    Boeing then complains about competition from Airbus in the US, and there are tariffs on imports of other airplanes.

    I don't really want us to go down the plughole of protectionism, like we did in the 1920s and 30s.
    Protectionism on the rise. The UK's self-removal from the world's largest free trade area could not have been more ill-timed.
    The EU is not even close to being the world's largest free trade area. That is one of the most bald faced lies of the referendum campaign.
    My guess is that Switzerland is the country with the greatest tariff free access in the world: EU, plus EFTA agreements, plus a flawed, but extant, agreement with China.

    But I'm thinking that the EU comes next.

    Where do you think you get greater FTA access?
    NAFTA is clearly a larger FTA than the EU. A much bigger economy.
    Err sure.

    But the US has bugger all FTAs, so you're much better off being in the EU or EFTA.
    Perhaps the obvious outcome of this conversation is that FTAs don't matter all that much. Trade is built by business and relationships between business, not by politicians. The US is still the most dynamic economy in the World despite their lack of FTAs. Perhaps it is time that we realised that a bit of friction is not going to make that much difference.
    The US has had a continental scale single market much longer than the EU.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,745
    rawzer said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't quite know what your intention is to be so joyful with such comments - it will be significant in deciding if we can come to a deal.

    Are you saying the EUspects of the EU?

    It seems to me I have a higher view of the EU, its aims, and its reasonableness than you or Mr Clarkson.
    It's not a matter of the EU's reasonableness or otherwise.

    Power and control are two sides of the same coin. We haven't taken back control - we've given it away.
    No, it is about reasonableness of the EU. They want a deal, they claim, and UK voters are releva
    The picture you paint of the EU, I presume unwittingly, is one of a grasping, power hungry and bitter organisation which has no regard for harmonious relations with those weaker than itself. Frankly I seem to have a more positive opinion of the EU than you do.
    I think William wants to be their Satrap over the UK.
    I just don't see why his appeal toward remaining is so often geared around inevitability of history (always a flawed concept) and how brutal the EU will be to us as a non-member, not vindictively but again as a matter of inevitability. That's the enticement of a Star Wars villain, not an appeal to the dream of a continent of varied but united culture coming together for the sake of prosperity, peace and nobility.
    Historical inevitability is bunk.

    History twists and turns.
    Bunk! Don’t tell Hari Seldon
    You stubborn old Mule... :)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    The problem with these kind of tariffs is that it's a slippery slope:

    First, you put it on the steel.
    But that makes US made cars more expensive, so you put it on foreign cars.
    This results in a tit-for-tat, where the Chinese kill their Boeing orders.
    Boeing then complains about competition from Airbus in the US, and there are tariffs on imports of other airplanes.

    I don't really want us to go down the plughole of protectionism, like we did in the 1920s and 30s.
    Protectionism on the rise. The UK's self-removal from the world's largest free trade area could not have been more ill-timed.
    The EU is not even close to being the world's largest free trade area. That is one of the most bald faced lies of the referendum campaign.
    My guess is that Switzerland is the country with the greatest tariff free access in the world: EU, plus EFTA agreements, plus a flawed, but extant, agreement with China.

    But I'm thinking that the EU comes next.

    Where do you think you get greater FTA access?
    NAFTA is clearly a larger FTA than the EU. A much bigger economy.
    Err sure.

    But the US has bugger all FTAs, so you're much better off being in the EU or EFTA.
    Australia has a FTA with both the USA, China and Japan - we don't have an agreement with any of them.

    Even without considering the rest of what will be covered by TPP that's combined an area with three times the GDP of the EU27.
    It's an enormous credit to the Japanese, the South Koreans, and the Australians that they've shrugged off the US departure from the TPP and decided to go it alone.

    However, the TPP is still some way away from implementation. Certainly, it is a lot further away than the EU-Japan FTA. The EU is also conducting negotiations with Australia and expects to get an FTA in place by the end of 2019.

    Generally, it's easy to get FTAs when economies are complementary. Resource rich countries - like Australia, for example - find it easy to reach accord with resource poor ones.

    My point, for what it's worth, is that there is an awful lot of "the EU hates free trade" on this board. And it is, frankly, guff. The EU is more open to exports from LDCs than any other trade grouping on the planet.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,745

    Not because of us leaving, no - indeed the greater focus on the Eurozone may lead to economic reform - but its the EU's democratic deficit which will be its undoing - and the fact that they can airily wave away the demos of one of its largest members deciding to leave as "Britain's problem" is very telling. The borderline corrupt appointment of Selmeyr is another straw in the wind....

    One day the EU will die, because everything does. But whether it will fall in the near-future (say, 5-10 years) is a different question. Looking at how it reacted post-referendum and how we reacted in the same timeframe, it doesn't look as if it's going to die in the next ten years.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,651
    viewcode said:

    Not because of us leaving, no - indeed the greater focus on the Eurozone may lead to economic reform - but its the EU's democratic deficit which will be its undoing - and the fact that they can airily wave away the demos of one of its largest members deciding to leave as "Britain's problem" is very telling. The borderline corrupt appointment of Selmeyr is another straw in the wind....

    One day the EU will die, because everything does. But whether it will fall in the near-future (say, 5-10 years) is a different question. Looking at how it reacted post-referendum and how we reacted in the same timeframe, it doesn't look as if it's going to die in the next ten years.
    It's self preservation instinct is very strong - which is why it keeps riding roughshod over the demos - but one day, the demos will strike back, as it has done in Britain.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,745

    Floater said:

    Roger said:

    David Miliband. Another colossus among pygmies. How could the Tory Brexiteers have become so abject. I saw Boris Johnson on TV this evening and he didn't even look interesting as the clown he was trying to be.

    Cough Rendition cpugh
    Is this the same David "I don't know the capital of Brazil and I caused such a diplomatic incident in India they had to send out Peter Mandelson on an emergency flight to try and smooth things over" Miliband?
    Yup. The Once and Future Dork. Some years after they leave office, sober reappraisal may lead to a reconsideration of a politician, as the passage of time lends a better perspective. But to be honest, he doesn't look better as time passes: he entered politics, missed his chances, bailed out and left. Not a bad lad, but not really PM material and not obviously good at Cabinet level.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,745

    viewcode said:

    Not because of us leaving, no - indeed the greater focus on the Eurozone may lead to economic reform - but its the EU's democratic deficit which will be its undoing - and the fact that they can airily wave away the demos of one of its largest members deciding to leave as "Britain's problem" is very telling. The borderline corrupt appointment of Selmeyr is another straw in the wind....

    One day the EU will die, because everything does. But whether it will fall in the near-future (say, 5-10 years) is a different question. Looking at how it reacted post-referendum and how we reacted in the same timeframe, it doesn't look as if it's going to die in the next ten years.
    It's self preservation instinct is very strong - which is why it keeps riding roughshod over the demos - but one day, the demos will strike back, as it has done in Britain.
    ...which leads me quite nicely into this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMfgcA1zlGY
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,651
    edited March 2018
    Trade war starts here:

    Any U.S. decision to restrict imports based on the argument that an abundance of low-priced raw materials from a diversity of sources somehow threatens national security would lower the bar so significantly as to invite every other member of the World Trade Organization to invoke national security to protect favored industries.

    ....Brussels might respond by adopting rigid restrictions on data flows in the name of information security, kneecapping U.S. companies like Google and Amazon.


    https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/trumps-national-security-protectionism-will-open-pandoras-box
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,651
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Not because of us leaving, no - indeed the greater focus on the Eurozone may lead to economic reform - but its the EU's democratic deficit which will be its undoing - and the fact that they can airily wave away the demos of one of its largest members deciding to leave as "Britain's problem" is very telling. The borderline corrupt appointment of Selmeyr is another straw in the wind....

    One day the EU will die, because everything does. But whether it will fall in the near-future (say, 5-10 years) is a different question. Looking at how it reacted post-referendum and how we reacted in the same timeframe, it doesn't look as if it's going to die in the next ten years.
    It's self preservation instinct is very strong - which is why it keeps riding roughshod over the demos - but one day, the demos will strike back, as it has done in Britain.
    ...which leads me quite nicely into this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMfgcA1zlGY
    I certainly hope not......we need to get ourselves sorted before we can cope with any unwinding of the EU.....
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960

    Trade war starts here:

    Any U.S. decision to restrict imports based on the argument that an abundance of low-priced raw materials from a diversity of sources somehow threatens national security would lower the bar so significantly as to invite every other member of the World Trade Organization to invoke national security to protect favored industries.

    ....Brussels might respond by adopting rigid restrictions on data flows in the name of information security, kneecapping U.S. companies like Google and Amazon.


    https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/trumps-national-security-protectionism-will-open-pandoras-box

    Donald Trump does not like multilateral organisations. He likes ones where the US is the top dog and makes the rules. He hates the idea that the US could be made to do things,

    The multilateral, rule based, systems that have grown up around GATT and the WTO have improved the lives of billions of people. For countries that will be newly independent in the world (i.e. us), their presence ensures that we are hard to bully. The WTO has slapped down the EU more times than I'd care to mention (and the US, and China, etc.).

    It would be very much to our disadvantage if the rules based system were to disintegrate under challenge from President Trump.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    The Mail have been busy bees...

    The champion of apartheid: Max Mosley was a passionate supporter of South Africa's white supremacists

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5451979/Mosley-passionate-supporter-apartheid-South-Africa.html
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Oh the bants those boys used to get up to...

    In his biography of Bernie Ecclestone, No Angel, author Tom Bower recounts how just before the race Mosley and Ecclestone played a dubious joke on their bitter rival, Balestre. They phoned him at his home in France, with Mosley pretending to be the imprisoned anti-apartheid campaigner Nelson Mandela (pictured) calling from his cell
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,651

    The Mail have been busy bees...

    The champion of apartheid: Max Mosley was a passionate supporter of South Africa's white supremacists

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5451979/Mosley-passionate-supporter-apartheid-South-Africa.html

    Today, Mosley cites setting up a campaign to defend Lewis Hamilton from bigoted attacks in Spain in 2008 as evidence of his own lack of prejudice.

    But, like so much of the past he wants to erase, he conveniently omits his own lucrative dealings with the world’s most reviled racist government.


    No wonder he’s a champion of controlling what the press can say.....
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    The Mail have been busy bees...

    The champion of apartheid: Max Mosley was a passionate supporter of South Africa's white supremacists

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5451979/Mosley-passionate-supporter-apartheid-South-Africa.html

    Today, Mosley cites setting up a campaign to defend Lewis Hamilton from bigoted attacks in Spain in 2008 as evidence of his own lack of prejudice.

    But, like so much of the past he wants to erase, he conveniently omits his own lucrative dealings with the world’s most reviled racist government.


    No wonder he’s a champion of controlling what the press can say.....
    How dare you suggest such a thing. His motivates for backing Impress are pure as the snow falling outside my window.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    The problem with these kind of tariffs is that it's a slippery slope:

    First, you put it on the steel.
    But that makes US made cars more expensive, so you put it on foreign cars.
    This results in a tit-for-tat, where the Chinese kill their Boeing orders.
    Boeing then complains about competition from Airbus in the US, and there are tariffs on imports of other airplanes.

    I don't really want us to go down the plughole of protectionism, like we did in the 1920s and 30s.
    Protectionism on the rise. The UK's self-removal from the world's largest free trade area could not have been more ill-timed.
    The EU is not even close to being the world's largest free trade area. That is one of the most bald faced lies of the referendum campaign.
    My guess is that Switzerland is the country with the greatest tariff free access in the world: EU, plus EFTA agreements, plus a flawed, but extant, agreement with China.

    But I'm thinking that the EU comes next.

    Where do you think you get greater FTA access?
    NAFTA is clearly a larger FTA than the EU. A much bigger economy.
    Err sure.

    But the US has bugger all FTAs, so you're much better off being in the EU or EFTA.
    Perhaps the obvious outcome of this conversation is that FTAs don't matter all that much. Trade is built by business and relationships between business, not by politicians. The US is still the most dynamic economy in the World despite their lack of FTAs. Perhaps it is time that we realised that a bit of friction is not going to make that much difference.
    There's an element of truth in that.

    But sitting in my comfortable home in Los Angeles, I am reminded that there are two USAs. One is the most dynamic - the Coasts, and some major metropolitan areas - in the world.

    And the other is neither wealthy nor dynamic. I've travelled around Appalachia and around the old silver mining "towns" in Colorado. The poverty I've seen there has been far worse than anything I've ever seen in Europe or Australia.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Is Putin's missile-waving aimed at his electorate, America or China -- the emerging superpower rapidly upgrading its military capability, who has a 2,500 mile border with Russia and a military budget three times bigger (and more affordable as China spends 2.5 times less as a percentage of GDP)?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,651

    Is Putin's missile-waving aimed at his electorate, America or China -- the emerging superpower rapidly upgrading its military capability, who has a 2,500 mile border with Russia and a military budget three times bigger (and more affordable as China spends 2.5 times less as a percentage of GDP)?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
    I suspect its primarily aimed at a domestic audience (election coming up) - but with Trump in the White House & Xi in Zhongnanhai its probably foolish - both are well up for willy waving contests......or worse....
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    This intervention from Gove was a surprise to me!
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-water-company-bosses-speech-attack-audience-tax-executive-pay-a8235531.html

    Once again Corbyn has shifted the debate. The conservatives have now accepted Labours diagnosis that there is a problem with tax avoidance in utilities.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,651
    rkrkrk said:
    It is quite striking - I suspect the May government is not remotely 'intensely relaxed', to borrow a phrase, about corporate excess - of any in two decades. As with Brexit, another group used to getting their own way for too long are finding the world is changing.....
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
    That jobs got your name all over it...
    If they give it the title Governor of Yorkshire I'm going for it.

    I won't go for any job with a crap title like Mayor or First Minister.

    I might consider First Lord of Yorkshire or Warden of the North.
    Frankly the combined authorities merely being mayors really undermines them for me, not to mention being confusing. Some places have 3 different mayors. Lord mayors, city mayors and combined authority mayors.

    I doubt they have enough power to justify being governors or wardens of the north, but it would be much more badass.

    And don't get me started on PCCs, such a weak name. I'd heard people thought using Sheriff sounded too american, but I don't know if that is true.
    How about Viceroy of the North. :p
    King of the North. King of the North. It’s the stark choice.
    The Percies already have the title “Kings In The North” so it would be confusing
    Surely not an official title, or that would be treasonous?
    From the days when they were effectively regent (they combined Duke of Northumberland with Constable of Bamburgh and Warden of the North IIRC)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    glw said:

    Sean_F said:

    For a lot of powerful people, a vote in favour of more Europe is irrevocable. A vote against must always be reversed.

    When people who have been used to having things go their way experience the opposite you get to see how much of the facist they have within them.
    Fascist is a bit strong, but their commitment to democracy and listening to the "will of the people" is a bit more flexible than is ideal.
    It's terribly hard to be used to winning, and then to lose.

    Who are these people that always won, then lost for the first time in 2016?

    The Establishment doesn’t like to lose
    How very self-aware of you.
    I voted to Leave

    Conclusive proof I’m not Establishment...
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,333
    rkrkrk said:

    This intervention from Gove was a surprise to me!
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-water-company-bosses-speech-attack-audience-tax-executive-pay-a8235531.html

    Once again Corbyn has shifted the debate. The conservatives have now accepted Labours diagnosis that there is a problem with tax avoidance in utilities.

    Tha's right. To be fair Gove has exceeded expectations again too. He is fearless about taking on interest groups, and in his current job that's a huge positive.
This discussion has been closed.