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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is a big mistake to assume that the decline of UKIP means i

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is a big mistake to assume that the decline of UKIP means its voters automatically go to the Tories

One of the big electoral assumptions that continues to be made is that the decline of UKIP means that their votes shift almost an entirety to the Conservatives.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 761
    edited March 3
    Oooh,. first again.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,267
    Second. But the discussion about airlines was getting interesting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    Over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters still went Tory in 2017, even if some went Labour too, especially in Wales and the North. Without the collapse of UKIP the Tories would not have got to 38% in the county elections and 42% in the general election in 2017. Indeed May got a higher Tory voteshare at the general election than any Tory leader since Thatcher in 1983 in large part due to the collapse of UKIP (the collapse of the LDs has also added to that, although Labour has benefited more from the LD decline)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,513
    HYUFD said:

    Over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters still went Tory in 2017, even if some went Labour too, especially in Wales and the North. Without the collapse of UKIP the Tories would not have got to 38% in the county elections and 42% in the general election in 2017. Indeed May got a higher Tory voteshare at the general election than any Tory leader since Thatcher in 1983 in large part due to the collapse of UKIP (the collapse of the LDs has also added to that, although Labour has benefited more from the LD decline)

    HYUFD said:

    Over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters still went Tory in 2017, even if some went Labour too, especially in Wales and the North. Without the collapse of UKIP the Tories would not have got to 38% in the county elections and 42% in the general election in 2017. Indeed May got a higher Tory voteshare at the general election than any Tory leader since Thatcher in 1983 in large part due to the collapse of UKIP (the collapse of the LDs has also added to that, although Labour has benefited more from the LD decline)

    You write a lot of of crap on thid
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    Mike, that was an excellent spread bet. I was on the other side of it (albeit for only a couple of quid a seat) and lost a pile.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    HYUFD said:

    Over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters still went Tory in 2017, even if some went Labour too, especially in Wales and the North. Without the collapse of UKIP the Tories would not have got to 38% in the county elections and 42% in the general election in 2017. Indeed May got a higher Tory voteshare at the general election than any Tory leader since Thatcher in 1983 in large part due to the collapse of UKIP (the collapse of the LDs has also added to that, although Labour has benefited more from the LD decline)

    HYUFD said:

    Over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters still went Tory in 2017, even if some went Labour too, especially in Wales and the North. Without the collapse of UKIP the Tories would not have got to 38% in the county elections and 42% in the general election in 2017. Indeed May got a higher Tory voteshare at the general election than any Tory leader since Thatcher in 1983 in large part due to the collapse of UKIP (the collapse of the LDs has also added to that, although Labour has benefited more from the LD decline)

    You write a lot of of crap on thid
    What is wrong with what I wrote? The collapse of the LDs benefited the Tories a bit too in 2015 and 2017 but the biggest beneficiary was Labour just as the collapse of UKIP in 2017 benefited Labour a bit too but the biggest beneficiaries were the Tories.

    The Tories are now only above 40% as they were in government from 1979-1992 as they no longer have a significant anti EU party to contend with as they did from 1997-2015 in the form of the Referendum Party and then UKIP
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,267
    I’m surprtised by the amount of football being played today, although I wish Southend’s game had been one of those which fell victim to the weather!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,250
    Brexit has taken away UKIP’s purpose. The only obvious ideological route for such a party now is Le Penesque anti-Islam, but the constituency for that simply isn’t large enough in the U.K. to make much impact electorally. In the long term, it has to be to the Conservatives’ benefit that there is no longer a party to their right which can pick up 10-15% of the vote. Contrast the fortunes of the CDU before and after AfD.

    On the flip side, they really do a need a Lib Dem revivial that takes votes off Labour to have a chance of winning decent majorities.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149

    I’m surprtised by the amount of football being played today, although I wish Southend’s game had been one of those which fell victim to the weather!

    Leicester have just scored an injury time equaliser at home against Bournemouth. @Foxy will be happy tonight!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,255
    RoyalBlue said:

    Brexit has taken away UKIP’s purpose. The only obvious ideological route for such a party now is Le Penesque anti-Islam, but the constituency for that simply isn’t large enough in the U.K. to make much impact electorally. In the long term, it has to be to the Conservatives’ benefit that there is no longer a party to their right which can pick up 10-15% of the vote. Contrast the fortunes of the CDU before and after AfD.

    On the flip side, they really do a need a Lib Dem revivial that takes votes off Labour to have a chance of winning decent majorities.

    Similarly Labour need the LDs to take seats off the Tories again.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,948

    I’m surprtised by the amount of football being played today, although I wish Southend’s game had been one of those which fell victim to the weather!

    Snow has completely melted in west London during the course of the day. Though Brentford's game was called off yesterday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited March 3

    RoyalBlue said:

    Brexit has taken away UKIP’s purpose. The only obvious ideological route for such a party now is Le Penesque anti-Islam, but the constituency for that simply isn’t large enough in the U.K. to make much impact electorally. In the long term, it has to be to the Conservatives’ benefit that there is no longer a party to their right which can pick up 10-15% of the vote. Contrast the fortunes of the CDU before and after AfD.

    On the flip side, they really do a need a Lib Dem revivial that takes votes off Labour to have a chance of winning decent majorities.

    Similarly Labour need the LDs to take seats off the Tories again.
    The Tories need the LDs to take voteshare off Labour again, Thatcher got a landslide majority of 144 seats in 1983 on 42.4% and a majority of 102 seats in 1987 on 42.2% as the SDP/Liberal Alliance got 25.4% and 22.6% respectively and took votes off Labour.

    In 2017 May got 42.3% of the vote but could only get largest party in a hung Parliament because the centre left vote was united behind Labour and the LDs got just 7%.

    In 2010 the LDs got 57 MPs but we still had a Tory led coalition government
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters still went Tory in 2017, even if some went Labour too, especially in Wales and the North. Without the collapse of UKIP the Tories would not have got to 38% in the county elections and 42% in the general election in 2017. Indeed May got a higher Tory voteshare at the general election than any Tory leader since Thatcher in 1983 in large part due to the collapse of UKIP (the collapse of the LDs has also added to that, although Labour has benefited more from the LD decline)

    You write a lot of of crap on thid
    What is wrong with what I wrote? The collapse of the LDs benefited the Tories a bit too in 2015 and 2017 but the biggest beneficiary was Labour just as the collapse of UKIP in 2017 benefited Labour a bit too but the biggest beneficiaries were the Tories.

    The Tories are now only above 40% as they were in government from 1979-1992 as they no longer have a significant anti EU party to contend with as they did from 1997-2015 in the form of the Referendum Party and then UKIP
    Remind me how many seats did the Tories gain from the Lib Dems in 2015?

    Was it more or fewer than the Labour gains from the Lib Dems?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    Shooting at the White House
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,325

    twitter.com/BenjaminWareing/status/969985462659100673

    5...4...3...2...1...Alex jones comes up with a conspiracy theory relating deep state, gun control and trying to get trump out of office.
  • Very interesting comments about Macron on the previous thread.

    I am not surprised he is facing interesting times. We seem to forget, or perhaps never really appreciated how he was elected as a result of astonishing incompetence from Les Republicains. The Republicains could have put up any of half a dozen candidates and walked the election. Instead they had a Cleggasm for Francois Fillon. When his past crawled out of the woodwork there had no way of dumping him and he didn't have the decency to resign as candidate.

    Into the vacuum stepped M Marcon and now we have President Macron rather than President Juppe or even President Sarkozy term 2. Surely the Republicain electors who voted for Fillon must regret their choice even more that £3 Corbynistas in this country.

    I don't know most of France at all well, but I do know Franche Comte very well indeed. In Besancon you have had PS mayors all the way back to the Liberation. The present guy was elected in 2000 - effectively appointed as the others don't come near. He has jumped ship to En Marche, and so has his council. So, a PS / Communist council now has En Marche comfortably in control, with no change of personnel. Curiously at the legislatives Besak did a Brighton and is home of France's one Green MP.

    Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt Macron is a nice guy. And, unlike Trump he isn't out of his depth. But his power base does not exist, it is an ephemerum. I don't see him as either a Blair or a Thatcher, he is an accident. Alain Juppe would have been the one to have brought about Thatcherite reform or more likely the Blairite elusion of reform.

    For all his majority I don't think Macron has either the power or the vision to make great reforms. How long will PS and Communists stay on board if he seriously tries to weaken the unions ? How long will the Republicains stay when their party selects an effective leader. I don't know whether Macron will get a second term, but if he is even to try he will have to avoid upsetting both left and right.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,325
    From previous thread...what’s wrong with Paris...

    Social media has reacted with outrage after a pregnant Frenchwoman was fined €60 (£54; $74) for walking the wrong way at a Paris metro station.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,133
    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Incidentally, Supermodels of SHIELD returns tomorrow at 9pm (clashes with Homeland, naturally).
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters still went Tory in 2017, even if some went Labour too, especially in Wales and the North. Without the collapse of UKIP the Tories would not have got to 38% in the county elections and 42% in the general election in 2017. Indeed May got a higher Tory voteshare at the general election than any Tory leader since Thatcher in 1983 in large part due to the collapse of UKIP (the collapse of the LDs has also added to that, although Labour has benefited more from the LD decline)

    You write a lot of of crap on thid
    What is wrong with what I wrote? The collapse of the LDs benefited the Tories a bit too in 2015 and 2017 but the biggest beneficiary was Labour just as the collapse of UKIP in 2017 benefited Labour a bit too but the biggest beneficiaries were the Tories.

    The Tories are now only above 40% as they were in government from 1979-1992 as they no longer have a significant anti EU party to contend with as they did from 1997-2015 in the form of the Referendum Party and then UKIP
    Remind me how many seats did the Tories gain from the Lib Dems in 2015?

    Was it more or fewer than the Labour gains from the Lib Dems?
    Surely the change was LDs moving to Labour or not voting combined with formerly non-voting Tories coming out to vote because they hated the anti-government rethoric of Vince Cable. Therefore very few seats won by Labour, many more by the Tories. The LDs rely on natural Tories to vote for them, especially in council elections. Not the brightest tactic to then decry decent middle of the road Tories trying to do the right thing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    OK. World's best business class product :)

    Hard product (i.e. the seat): it's probably American Airlines (seriously). Very private, every seat has isle access, and lots of space.

    Soft Product (i.e. food, drink and service): lots to choose from - Singapore, Emirates, Qatar, New Zealand and Virgin

    British Airways has pretty poor hard product, and average soft product (although I would add that my last flight from London to LA was among the best I've had on BA from a food and drink perspective).

    Virgin's hard product is good, as is it's soft product. (And their lounges are excellent.) A solid offering.

    I would put an honourable mention in for Air New Zealand, which you can do return Business Class LA-London for £3,500. The seats are the same as Virgin, and the food and drink is pretty good.

    Best First Class? Singapore Airlines or Qatar. Both outstanding.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    You're going to be teaching Hong Kong bankers not to be fuckwits?

    My tip would be to prepare for disappointment... :smile:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,280
    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    1. Take a tram on Hong Kong Island HK$2.3 from beginning to end. The very best way to see the former colony.

    2. Go to Felix at the Peninsula.

    3. Go to the Captain's Bar any weekday early evening.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters still went Tory in 2017, even if some went Labour too, especially in Wales and the North. Without the collapse of UKIP the Tories would not have got to 38% in the county elections and 42% in the general election in 2017. Indeed May got a higher Tory voteshare at the general election than any Tory leader since Thatcher in 1983 in large part due to the collapse of UKIP (the collapse of the LDs has also added to that, although Labour has benefited more from the LD decline)

    You write a lot of of crap on thid
    What is wrong with what I wrote? The collapse of the LDs benefited the Tories a bit too in 2015 and 2017 but the biggest beneficiary was Labour just as the collapse of UKIP in 2017 benefited Labour a bit too but the biggest beneficiaries were the Tories.

    The Tories are now only above 40% as they were in government from 1979-1992 as they no longer have a significant anti EU party to contend with as they did from 1997-2015 in the form of the Referendum Party and then UKIP
    Remind me how many seats did the Tories gain from the Lib Dems in 2015?

    Was it more or fewer than the Labour gains from the Lib Dems?
    The LD vote declined by 15.1% in 2015, the Tory vote was up 0.8% and the Labour vote up by 1.4%.

    The Tories gained a lot of LD seats in the Southwest from the LD collapse enabling them to get a majority but Labour gained more votes from the LDs in 2015 than the Tories did
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412

    Very interesting comments about Macron on the previous thread.

    I am not surprised he is facing interesting times. We seem to forget, or perhaps never really appreciated how he was elected as a result of astonishing incompetence from Les Republicains. The Republicains could have put up any of half a dozen candidates and walked the election. Instead they had a Cleggasm for Francois Fillon. When his past crawled out of the woodwork there had no way of dumping him and he didn't have the decency to resign as candidate.

    Into the vacuum stepped M Marcon and now we have President Macron rather than President Juppe or even President Sarkozy term 2. Surely the Republicain electors who voted for Fillon must regret their choice even more that £3 Corbynistas in this country.

    I don't know most of France at all well, but I do know Franche Comte very well indeed. In Besancon you have had PS mayors all the way back to the Liberation. The present guy was elected in 2000 - effectively appointed as the others don't come near. He has jumped ship to En Marche, and so has his council. So, a PS / Communist council now has En Marche comfortably in control, with no change of personnel. Curiously at the legislatives Besak did a Brighton and is home of France's one Green MP.

    Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt Macron is a nice guy. And, unlike Trump he isn't out of his depth. But his power base does not exist, it is an ephemerum. I don't see him as either a Blair or a Thatcher, he is an accident. Alain Juppe would have been the one to have brought about Thatcherite reform or more likely the Blairite elusion of reform.

    For all his majority I don't think Macron has either the power or the vision to make great reforms. How long will PS and Communists stay on board if he seriously tries to weaken the unions ? How long will the Republicains stay when their party selects an effective leader. I don't know whether Macron will get a second term, but if he is even to try he will have to avoid upsetting both left and right.

    I think you are a little harsh re reforms. He's already done more to liberalise the French Labour market than the last four Presidents combined. He's removed sector level union bargaining, in favour of firm level. And for companies with fewer than 50 employees, there is no longer a need for firms to recognise unions at all. He's also dramatically cut the red tape around letting of permanent employees.

    There is much he needs to do, but these are huge changes for France.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,907
    Just a reminder of how good politicians used to be at making off the cuff speeches.

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,250
    FPT:
    nielh said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    The most interesting part of that Kayak survey is that less than half the population went abroad in the previous year. It’s so easy to live in bubbles, especially those like PB that are so pleasant :smile:

    That is surprising, given you can still get a £30 return flights to Europe.
    The last time I personally went on a conventional holiday abroad was four years ago, and I can't see myself doing it for many years to come. A holiday abroad would eat up about a significant percentage of our total gross family household income. Plus, it's a massive hassle: going to the airport, getting the flight, organising all the accommodation etc, going somewhere you don't know. Whats the point, when you can go somewhere in the UK? Its a beautiful country. Many of my colleagues (middle ranking public sector) have exactly the same perspective.

    I say this as a remain voter.

    The woman in the Kayak survey is irritating. So is much of the bulls**t from the travel industry. At one point, they had an advert campaign suggesting that people should go on five foreign holidays a year, a play on five a portions of fruit and veg per day, implying that that there was something intrinsically healthy about foreign travel. Getting on an easyjet flight, staying in a hotel and sitting around drinking coffee on some European city break doesn't broaden the mind. Reading a book does.

    You hit the nail on the head with your last two sentences. I’d also add that going to places where you have at least some grasp of the local language is far more rewarding than those where you are totally dependent on English-speaking guides and bad translations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited March 3

    Very interesting comments about Macron on the previous thread.

    I am not surprised he is facing interesting times. We seem to forget, or perhaps never really appreciated how he was elected as a result of astonishing incompetence from Les Republicains. The Republicains could have put up any of half a dozen candidates and walked the election. Instead they had a Cleggasm for Francois Fillon. When his past crawled out of the woodwork there had no way of dumping him and he didn't have the decency to resign as candidate.

    Into the vacuum stepped M Marcon and now we have President Macron rather than President Juppe or even President Sarkozy term 2. Surely the Republicain electors who voted for Fillon must regret their choice even more that £3 Corbynistas in this country.

    I don't know most of France at all well, but I do know Franche Comte very well indeed. In Besancon you have had PS mayors all the way back to the Liberation. The present guy was elected in 2000 - effectively appointed as the others don't come near. He has jumped ship to En Marche, and so has his council. So, a PS / Communist council now has En Marche comfortably in control, with no change of personnel. Curiously at the legislatives Besak did a Brighton and is home of France's one Green MP.

    Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt Macron is a nice guy. And, unlike Trump he isn't out of his depth. But his power base does not exist, it is an ephemerum. I don't see him as either a Blair or a Thatcher, he is an accident. Alain Juppe would have been the one to have brought about Thatcherite reform or more likely the Blairite elusion of reform.

    For all his majority I don't think Macron has either the power or the vision to make great reforms. How long will PS and Communists stay on board if he seriously tries to weaken the unions ? How long will the Republicains stay when their party selects an effective leader. I don't know whether Macron will get a second term, but if he is even to try he will have to avoid upsetting both left and right.

    Macron would have beaten Juppe, Macron has charisma, Juppe does not. You could equally make the case at least Fillon held enough of the base from Le Pen to keep third ahead of Melenchon, Juppe could even have come 4th behind Melenchon had he had a poor general election campaign.

    Only Fillon would have brought about Thatcherite style policies, Juppe would have been Chirac 2.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,463
    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    The view ( esp at night ) from Cafe Deco on Victoria Peak is amazing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,325
    rcs1000 said:

    OK. World's best business class product :)

    Hard product (i.e. the seat): it's probably American Airlines (seriously). Very private, every seat has isle access, and lots of space.

    Soft Product (i.e. food, drink and service): lots to choose from - Singapore, Emirates, Qatar, New Zealand and Virgin

    British Airways has pretty poor hard product, and average soft product (although I would add that my last flight from London to LA was among the best I've had on BA from a food and drink perspective).

    Virgin's hard product is good, as is it's soft product. (And their lounges are excellent.) A solid offering.

    I would put an honourable mention in for Air New Zealand, which you can do return Business Class LA-London for £3,500. The seats are the same as Virgin, and the food and drink is pretty good.

    Best First Class? Singapore Airlines or Qatar. Both outstanding.

    The travel tips, wine recommendations and latest places for fine dining are really the only reason I keep visiting Pb ;-)
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 761
    On topic: surely the main reason for swings being so similar between places where UKIP stood and where they didn't is that the retained UKIP vote was so small in most places anyway that the maximum additional swing available by UKIP not standing would be not much over 1%.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,280
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    1. Take a tram on Hong Kong Island HK$2.3 from beginning to end. The very best way to see the former colony.

    2. Go to Felix at the Peninsula.

    3. Go to the Captain's Bar any weekday early evening.
    4. Get out on a junk at the weekend.

    5. Go to the American Chinese restaurant in Wan Chai

    6. Don't use a taxi to cross the harbour, always take the Star Ferry.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    edited March 3
    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    Have fun and enjoy freelancing!

    Hong Kong advise - lovely place but quite mentally busy, even by London standards at rush hours. As in London, initially get a train rather than a taxi from the airport and find an hotel as close as possible to your meeting. Everyone speaks English. Watch the light show in the harbour of an evening. HK is two cities (HK Island and the the Kowloon mainland). Best hotel is the Penninsula, which is rather like the old Savoy in London. Go to the bar there. Take the Peak Tram funicular to the top of the mountain.

    General travelling on business advise - stay a day or two extra before or after if you can arrange it in any new city, there’s always things to do and see. There’s nothing worse than going somewhere, seeing an airport, a chain hotel and a conference room before running away again.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,651
    edited March 3
    On topic, in Scotland I'd guess the UKIP vote (such as it is/was) has pretty much gone to the Tories, even to the point of some of them becoming elected members.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    edited March 3
    RoyalBlue said:

    Brexit has taken away UKIP’s purpose. The only obvious ideological route for such a party now is Le Penesque anti-Islam, but the constituency for that simply isn’t large enough in the U.K. to make much impact electorally. In the long term, it has to be to the Conservatives’ benefit that there is no longer a party to their right which can pick up 10-15% of the vote. Contrast the fortunes of the CDU before and after AfD.

    On the flip side, they really do a need a Lib Dem revivial that takes votes off Labour to have a chance of winning decent majorities.

    I think that's right: the Conservative Party needs the LibDems to have 20 seats and 15% of the vote.

    Unfortunately, with Vince Cable leading the LibDems, that looks a forlorn hope.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311
    Mike makes a good point, but there's another very important benefit for the Tories as UKIP disintegrates: it gives the Conservatives space to move to the centre. Of course, to take advantage of that opportunity the party has to want to be the natural party of government again; the jury is out on that one for the moment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    Mike makes a good point, but there's another very important benefit for the Tories as UKIP disintegrates: it gives the Conservatives space to move to the centre. Of course, to take advantage of that opportunity the party has to want to be the natural party of government again; the jury is out on that one for the moment.

    To win a majority next time the Tories both need to attract centrist voters but also ensure Leavers who voted for them in 2017 do not start drifting back to UKIP. The biggest move of Tory to Labour voters in 2017 came after the dementia tax plan disaster
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,133
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    You're going to be teaching Hong Kong bankers not to be fuckwits?

    My tip would be to prepare for disappointment... :smile:
    But lots of repeat business...... :)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311
    Late to the airline discussion, but here's a possibly useful tip: when booking a flight, check what happens to the price if you add in a hotel or car hire on the airline's website. Sometimes it costs very little more than just the ticket. In one case, a couple of months ago, I was booking a premium economy BA flight for a colleague, and the price with car hire was £700 less than the price for just the ticket. Lord only knows why: airline pricing is one of the great mysteries of the age.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,280
    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited March 3
    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149

    Late to the airline discussion, but here's a possibly useful tip: when booking a flight, check what happens to the price if you add in a hotel or car hire on the airline's website. Sometimes it costs very little more than just the ticket. In one case, a couple of months ago, I was booking a premium economy BA flight for a colleague, and the price with car hire was £700 less than the price for just the ticket. Lord only knows why: airline pricing is one of the great mysteries of the age.

    Sounds like you stumbled across a promotion.

    Another one is to always browse airline websites in ‘Private Browsing’ mode on your computer. Otherwise they track you and each time you come back the price goes up a little.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,133
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    1. Take a tram on Hong Kong Island HK$2.3 from beginning to end. The very best way to see the former colony.

    2. Go to Felix at the Peninsula.

    3. Go to the Captain's Bar any weekday early evening.
    Thanks to all for the tips. Really looking forward to the trip.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,280
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    The ones the Cons need are.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149

    ttps://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/969990074845810689?s=21

    Even when you disagree politically with the sentiment, Matt is just brilliant at the unification of two unrelated stories into a simple cartoon.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 827
    Poll for Sunday Mirror by @ComRes finds 81% Don't Want May to Call Early Election https://order-order.com/2018/03/03/81-dont-want-early-general-election/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,280
    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    1. Take a tram on Hong Kong Island HK$2.3 from beginning to end. The very best way to see the former colony.

    2. Go to Felix at the Peninsula.

    3. Go to the Captain's Bar any weekday early evening.
    Thanks to all for the tips. Really looking forward to the trip.
    Enjoy. It's a hell of a place. Just walking around is an experience (use shops as aircon pitstops!).
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 132
    Which is why Corbyns “customs union” pledge is a such a tactical error. It reopens an issue that UKIP/Labour voters thought was closed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    edited March 3
    Scott_P said:
    Oh shit, he’s actually trying to start a bloody trade war. :open_mouth:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    edited March 3
    Scott_P said:
    A trade war between the US and the rest of the world will be good for... nobody.

    Edit to add. From a straight factual point of view, EU average tariffs are marginally below US ones.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 15,158

    Just a reminder of how good politicians used to be at making off the cuff speeches.

    I may have disagreed with much of what he advocated but Foot was a brilliant politician and Parliamentarian. It was his character assassination by the Tories (in spite of me voting for them) which really formed the early basis for my scepticism about politics as a whole - and certainly as it has developed since the 80s.

    I don't think there is room or time for a politician of Foot's stature any more. They all get destroyed by both the conventional and online media.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311
    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    That's perfectly logical, especially as Labour has gone batshit-crazy. The only little problemette is that there's no evidence at all in the polls that this logical outcome is actually happening, and in the real election of GE2017 it didn't happen. Voters don't seem to be behaving as one might expect them to.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    You're going to be teaching Hong Kong bankers not to be fuckwits?

    My tip would be to prepare for disappointment... :smile:
    But lots of repeat business...... :)
    I hadn't thought of it that way!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    While that may or may not be true, that conclusion does not logically follow from the premise.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    marke09 said:

    Poll for Sunday Mirror by @ComRes finds 81% Don't Want May to Call Early Election https://order-order.com/2018/03/03/81-dont-want-early-general-election/

    Rising to 100% of Tories (or on a Conservative Home poll, 275%).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    Sandpit said:

    Late to the airline discussion, but here's a possibly useful tip: when booking a flight, check what happens to the price if you add in a hotel or car hire on the airline's website. Sometimes it costs very little more than just the ticket. In one case, a couple of months ago, I was booking a premium economy BA flight for a colleague, and the price with car hire was £700 less than the price for just the ticket. Lord only knows why: airline pricing is one of the great mysteries of the age.

    Sounds like you stumbled across a promotion.

    Another one is to always browse airline websites in ‘Private Browsing’ mode on your computer. Otherwise they track you and each time you come back the price goes up a little.
    Or use Google Flight search in Advanced Mode.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,773
    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    Go to the country. Strange thing because Hong Kong is known as a metropolis but the tenements stop suddenly and you get into a country that unlike mainland China has never been collectivised and is often quite wild.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    edited March 3

    Just a reminder of how good politicians used to be at making off the cuff speeches.

    I may have disagreed with much of what he advocated but Foot was a brilliant politician and Parliamentarian. It was his character assassination by the Tories (in spite of me voting for them) which really formed the early basis for my scepticism about politics as a whole - and certainly as it has developed since the 80s.

    I don't think there is room or time for a politician of Foot's stature any more. They all get destroyed by both the conventional and online media.
    Our political system discourages people of talent, to the detriment of all of us.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,280

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    That's perfectly logical, especially as Labour has gone batshit-crazy. The only little problemette is that there's no evidence at all in the polls that this logical outcome is actually happening, and in the real election of GE2017 it didn't happen. Voters don't seem to be behaving as one might expect them to.
    Yes now may not be the time for logic. Brexit has polarised many one way or another, plus has taught both winners and losers that their vote actually means something. So maybe NOTA is not as prevalent as previously.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,162
    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    My circulation makes prolonged sitting painful and long-distance-travel requires workarounds. Some points to note:

    1) Compression garments
    Wear compression garments: hose is good for above-the-knee, socks are adequate for below-the-knee. Compression socks are available over-the-counter from Boots and other high-street chemists. Scholl is good for the over-the-counter stuff, but for more serious pressure you will need to look at other manufacturers. They are graded by knee/thigh pressure vs ankle pressure, with the former lower than the latter (so 10mmHg vs 12mmHg). The lower the numbers (and differential) the more comfortable but less preventative, the higher the numbers (and differential) the more painful but more preventative. Work out beforehand what is best for you, as too much may cause damage.

    https://www.scholl.co.uk/en-gb/c/hosiery-and-compression
    http://lohmann-rauscher.co.uk/compression-therapy/compression-hosiery/british-standard/indications
    http://lohmann-rauscher.co.uk/compression-therapy/compression-hosiery/made-to-measure

    2) Airlines.
    Apparently Norwegian Airlines has bigger legroom than normal. Last year I considered presenting to a conference in the US and genuinely considered doing it in stages (UK-Iceland, Iceland-Canada, Canada to US). But somebody (on here, oddly enuf) recommended Norwegian and the extra legroom makes longer-distance journeys tenable.

    https://www.norwegian.com
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Nabavi, in that election the Conservatives had the worst campaign strategy since the Emperor thought attacking the Muslims at Manzikert was a good idea.

    Mr. 1000, indeed. The media is especially culpable.

    It reminds me a little of the destruction of the virtuous circle that existed during the Golden Age of Imperial Rome. Numerous great emperors in a row had led men of talent to rise to prominence and responsibility, comfortable with not getting the top job because they knew they'd be treated fairly and not as a rival. Commodus killed quite a lot, others kept their heads down, and after that the talented were likely to be seen as a threat rather than a help (exemplified by Honorius' appalling treatment of Stilicho).

    The media's losing a lot of support and trust, I think. There's ever more comment and opinion rather than straightforward reporting. This is not a positive development.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Oh shit, he’s actually trying to start a bloody trade war. :open_mouth:
    The US might "win" a trade war - in that the EU and China are hurt more than the US - but that won't make up for the increased unemployment and inevitable recession.

    (I'd also note that while Germany exports $22bn of cars to the US, that's not actually that much in the general scheme of things.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    My circulation makes prolonged sitting painful and long-distance-travel requires workarounds. Some points to note:

    1) Compression garments
    Wear compression garments: hose is good for above-the-knee, socks are adequate for below-the-knee. Compression socks are available over-the-counter from Boots and other high-street chemists. Scholl is good for the over-the-counter stuff, but for more serious pressure you will need to look at other manufacturers. They are graded by knee/thigh pressure vs ankle pressure, with the former lower than the latter (so 10mmHg vs 12mmHg). The lower the numbers (and differential) the more comfortable but less preventative, the higher the numbers (and differential) the more painful but more preventative. Work out beforehand what is best for you, as too much may cause damage.

    https://www.scholl.co.uk/en-gb/c/hosiery-and-compression
    http://lohmann-rauscher.co.uk/compression-therapy/compression-hosiery/british-standard/indications
    http://lohmann-rauscher.co.uk/compression-therapy/compression-hosiery/made-to-measure

    2) Airlines.
    Apparently Norwegian Airlines has bigger legroom than normal. Last year I considered presenting to a conference in the US and genuinely considered doing it in stages (UK-Iceland, Iceland-Canada, Canada to US). But somebody (on here, oddly enuf) recommended Norwegian and the extra legroom makes longer-distance journeys tenable.

    https://www.norwegian.com
    Norwegian Premium is often cheaper than BA economy and is an order of magnitude better.

    Of course, you have to trek to Gatwick.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    The ones the Cons need are.
    The ones who will vote Conservative next time put stopping Corbyn ahead of stopping Brexit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    While that may or may not be true, that conclusion does not logically follow from the premise.
    The centre on Brexit is the middle 50%, so if Leave got 52% the centrist voter on Brexit is by definition a moderate Leaver
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    While that may or may not be true, that conclusion does not logically follow from the premise.
    The centre on Brexit is the middle 50%, so if Leave got 52% the centrist voter on Brexit is by definition a moderate Leaver
    There are a number of logical fallacies there.

    Firstly, turnout for the referendum was much higher than at General Elections. Therefore, among voters in the General, it is possible that 52% voted Remain.

    Secondly, your definition of "centrist" is just one person. The reality is that the centre is perhaps 12% moderate leavers and 8% moderate remainers - all of whom came to their decision only after great difficulty.

    Thirdly, it assumes that Brexit is the be-all-and-end-all for voters. It isn't, otherwise the LibDems would have tapped into the 28% and done rather better than they did last year.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,162
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    My circulation makes prolonged sitting painful and long-distance-travel requires workarounds. Some points to note:

    1) Compression garments
    Wear compression garments: hose is good for above-the-knee, socks are adequate for below-the-knee. Compression socks are available over-the-counter from Boots and other high-street chemists. Scholl is good for the over-the-counter stuff, but for more serious pressure you will need to look at other manufacturers. They are graded by knee/thigh pressure vs ankle pressure, with the former lower than the latter (so 10mmHg vs 12mmHg). The lower the numbers (and differential) the more comfortable but less preventative, the higher the numbers (and differential) the more painful but more preventative. Work out beforehand what is best for you, as too much may cause damage.

    https://www.scholl.co.uk/en-gb/c/hosiery-and-compression
    http://lohmann-rauscher.co.uk/compression-therapy/compression-hosiery/british-standard/indications
    http://lohmann-rauscher.co.uk/compression-therapy/compression-hosiery/made-to-measure

    2) Airlines.
    Apparently Norwegian Airlines has bigger legroom than normal. Last year I considered presenting to a conference in the US and genuinely considered doing it in stages (UK-Iceland, Iceland-Canada, Canada to US). But somebody (on here, oddly enuf) recommended Norwegian and the extra legroom makes longer-distance journeys tenable.

    https://www.norwegian.com
    Norwegian Premium is often cheaper than BA economy and is an order of magnitude better.

    Of course, you have to trek to Gatwick.
    Indeed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974

    Incidentally, Supermodels of SHIELD returns tomorrow at 9pm (clashes with Homeland, naturally).

    Brilliant, thanks! I'd done a search a few weeks back, and the web seemed to have no idea when it was going to be broadcast.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Jessop, np. I often miss things like that or The 100 starting (or The Walking Dead when it was on FTA TV here) because I rarely watch stations other than Pick (for the sci-fi). It's damned irksome missing the first few episodes and trying to catch up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    The ones the Cons need are.
    The ones who will vote Conservative next time put stopping Corbyn ahead of stopping Brexit
    You hope.

    This reliance on Corbyn being unsaleable didn't exactly work last year did it? And perhaps after another few years of cack-handed attacks, the public will be willing to give him a try. We Brits like eccentrics and underdogs.

    To be blunt: May and the Conservatives need to develop a positive vision for the country that is not navel-gazing Brexit sh*t. Pointing at the opposition and shouting "he smells!" won't work.

    Sadly, I don't think May, or even the Conservative Party as a whole, have it in them. They did give the impression that they only want power for power's sake.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    While that may or may not be true, that conclusion does not logically follow from the premise.
    The centre on Brexit is the middle 50%, so if Leave got 52% the centrist voter on Brexit is by definition a moderate Leaver
    There are a number of logical fallacies there.

    Firstly, turnout for the referendum was much higher than at General Elections. Therefore, among voters in the General, it is possible that 52% voted Remain.

    Secondly, your definition of "centrist" is just one person. The reality is that the centre is perhaps 12% moderate leavers and 8% moderate remainers - all of whom came to their decision only after great difficulty.

    Thirdly, it assumes that Brexit is the be-all-and-end-all for voters. It isn't, otherwise the LibDems would have tapped into the 28% and done rather better than they did last year.
    Turnout at the referendum was 72%, admittedly the highest since the 1992 general election for a UK wide vote but still turnout at the 2017 general election was not that much lower at 69% and the Tories and Labour got 82% combined backing Brexit.

    As Leave won the centrist median voter has to be a Leaver, that does not mean moderate and wavering voters did not consider both sides but in the end a majority voted Leave.

    Reversing Brexit certainly is not the be all and end all for voters apart from a small minority of diehard Remainers
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    The ones the Cons need are.
    The ones who will vote Conservative next time put stopping Corbyn ahead of stopping Brexit
    You hope.

    This reliance on Corbyn being unsaleable didn't exactly work last year did it? And perhaps after another few years of cack-handed attacks, the public will be willing to give him a try. We Brits like eccentrics and underdogs.

    To be blunt: May and the Conservatives need to develop a positive vision for the country that is not navel-gazing Brexit sh*t. Pointing at the opposition and shouting "he smells!" won't work.

    Sadly, I don't think May, or even the Conservative Party as a whole, have it in them. They did give the impression that they only want power for power's sake.
    The Tories got 42% last year, their highest voteshare since 1983, in large part because they won a clear majority of Leavers and a number of Remainers were determined to keep Corbyn out.

    Yes they need to look at other issues as well but delivering a clear Brexit which the Leave voting majority voted for is also vital if the Tories are to achieve a majority next time
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,325
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    My circulation makes prolonged sitting painful and long-distance-travel requires workarounds. Some points to note:

    1) Compression garments
    Wear compression garments: hose is good for above-the-knee, socks are adequate for below-the-knee. Compression socks are available over-the-counter from Boots and other high-street chemists. Scholl is good for the over-the-counter stuff, but for more serious pressure you will need to look at other manufacturers. They are graded by knee/thigh pressure vs ankle pressure, with the former lower than the latter (so 10mmHg vs 12mmHg). The lower the numbers (and differential) the more comfortable but less preventative, the higher the numbers (and differential) the more painful but more preventative. Work out beforehand what is best for you, as too much may cause damage.

    https://www.scholl.co.uk/en-gb/c/hosiery-and-compression
    http://lohmann-rauscher.co.uk/compression-therapy/compression-hosiery/british-standard/indications
    http://lohmann-rauscher.co.uk/compression-therapy/compression-hosiery/made-to-measure

    2) Airlines.
    Apparently Norwegian Airlines has bigger legroom than normal. Last year I considered presenting to a conference in the US and genuinely considered doing it in stages (UK-Iceland, Iceland-Canada, Canada to US). But somebody (on here, oddly enuf) recommended Norwegian and the extra legroom makes longer-distance journeys tenable.

    https://www.norwegian.com
    Norwegian Premium is often cheaper than BA economy and is an order of magnitude better.

    Of course, you have to trek to Gatwick.
    If Gatwick was a restaurant, it would definitely be a KFC...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,521
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re long distance travel: in 10 days time I’m off to HK - for the first time ever - to do some work (my first as a freelance - very exciting on both counts!!) and I’m flying Cathay Pacific Business Class, not least because on my return journey I have to go straight to an office to do another presentation.

    I have a blood condition which makes me vulnerable to DVT, which I’ve had twice (no joke I can assure you) so being able to stretch out and move is pretty much essential for me.

    Any HK tips gratefully received......

    My circulation makes prolonged sitting painful and long-distance-travel requires workarounds. Some points to note:

    1) Compression garments
    Wear compression garments: hose is good for above-the-knee, socks are adequate for below-the-knee. Compression socks are available over-the-counter from Boots and other high-street chemists. Scholl is good for the over-the-counter stuff, but for more serious pressure you will need to look at other manufacturers. They are graded by knee/thigh pressure vs ankle pressure, with the former lower than the latter (so 10mmHg vs 12mmHg). The lower the numbers (and differential) the more comfortable but less preventative, the higher the numbers (and differential) the more painful but more preventative. Work out beforehand what is best for you, as too much may cause damage.

    https://www.scholl.co.uk/en-gb/c/hosiery-and-compression
    http://lohmann-rauscher.co.uk/compression-therapy/compression-hosiery/british-standard/indications
    http://lohmann-rauscher.co.uk/compression-therapy/compression-hosiery/made-to-measure

    2) Airlines.
    Apparently Norwegian Airlines has bigger legroom than normal. Last year I considered presenting to a conference in the US and genuinely considered doing it in stages (UK-Iceland, Iceland-Canada, Canada to US). But somebody (on here, oddly enuf) recommended Norwegian and the extra legroom makes longer-distance journeys tenable.

    https://www.norwegian.com
    Norwegian Premium is often cheaper than BA economy and is an order of magnitude better.

    Of course, you have to trek to Gatwick.
    Indeed.
    Gatwick used to be pants , but since the debacle a couple of years back (was it Swissport) where getting off was a nightmare, its been pretty smooth of late..
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,488
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    While that may or may not be true, that conclusion does not logically follow from the premise.
    The centre on Brexit is the middle 50%, so if Leave got 52% the centrist voter on Brexit is by definition a moderate Leaver
    That is not what "centrist" means. I don't think you are saying anything more than that 50 is half of 100. I am not sure what being centrist about (or "in terms of") a binary choice means, but I am pretty certain you can't be it when voting in a GE, because GEs aren't about Brexit.

    I think you have a mental model of a single bell curve centred on a 50/50 distribution of the brexit voting population, with the euro nutters and brexit loons at the extremes and the mehs towards the middle. Things don't necessarily distribute themselves like that, and it seems likely to be the case that in a status quo vs change referendum there will be more passion on the change side that the status quo. Not sure if this board bears that out, mind; and anyway if we locate mehness in the middle, that implies a lot of centrist voters on both sides.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    The ones the Cons need are.
    The ones who will vote Conservative next time put stopping Corbyn ahead of stopping Brexit
    You hope.

    This reliance on Corbyn being unsaleable didn't exactly work last year did it? And perhaps after another few years of cack-handed attacks, the public will be willing to give him a try. We Brits like eccentrics and underdogs.

    To be blunt: May and the Conservatives need to develop a positive vision for the country that is not navel-gazing Brexit sh*t. Pointing at the opposition and shouting "he smells!" won't work.

    Sadly, I don't think May, or even the Conservative Party as a whole, have it in them. They did give the impression that they only want power for power's sake.
    The Tories got 42% last year, their highest voteshare since 1983, in large part because they won a clear majority of Leavers and a number of Remainers were determined to keep Corbyn out.

    Yes they need to look at other issues as well but delivering a clear Brexit which the Leave voting majority voted for is also vital if the Tories are to achieve a majority next time
    Yet they lost seats. And the same attacks that worked last year will have either lost potency by the next GE through repetition, or be invalid as Corbyn gets his act together.

    Look, I want a strong, positive and forward-looking Conservative Party. That is not what we've got, and I doubt we'll get it under May.

    Complacency, thy name is HYUFD.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    While that may or may not be true, that conclusion does not logically follow from the premise.
    The centre on Brexit is the middle 50%, so if Leave got 52% the centrist voter on Brexit is by definition a moderate Leaver
    That is not what "centrist" means. I don't think you are saying anything more than that 50 is half of 100. I am not sure what being centrist about (or "in terms of") a binary choice means, but I am pretty certain you can't be it when voting in a GE, because GEs aren't about Brexit.

    I think you have a mental model of a single bell curve centred on a 50/50 distribution of the brexit voting population, with the euro nutters and brexit loons at the extremes and the mehs towards the middle. Things don't necessarily distribute themselves like that, and it seems likely to be the case that in a status quo vs change referendum there will be more passion on the change side that the status quo. Not sure if this board bears that out, mind; and anyway if we locate mehness in the middle, that implies a lot of centrist voters on both sides.
    +1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    While that may or may not be true, that conclusion does not logically follow from the premise.
    The centre on Brexit is the middle 50%, so if Leave got 52% the centrist voter on Brexit is by definition a moderate Leaver
    That is not what "centrist" means. I don't think you are saying anything more than that 50 is half of 100. I am not sure what being centrist about (or "in terms of") a binary choice means, but I am pretty certain you can't be it when voting in a GE, because GEs aren't about Brexit.

    I think you have a mental model of a single bell curve centred on a 50/50 distribution of the brexit voting population, with the euro nutters and brexit loons at the extremes and the mehs towards the middle. Things don't necessarily distribute themselves like that, and it seems likely to be the case that in a status quo vs change referendum there will be more passion on the change side that the status quo. Not sure if this board bears that out, mind; and anyway if we locate mehness in the middle, that implies a lot of centrist voters on both sides.
    The 'centre' is by definition voters who are dead centre in the median of public opinion. For many years the 'centre' at least on Brexit has been assumed to be pro EU, the referendum vote means the 'centre' is now by definition represented by someone who voted against the EU.

    The fact Remainers would have to convince 2016 Leave voters to switch to them to win any second EU referendum only confirms that
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,488
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    While that may or may not be true, that conclusion does not logically follow from the premise.
    The centre on Brexit is the middle 50%, so if Leave got 52% the centrist voter on Brexit is by definition a moderate Leaver
    There are a number of logical fallacies there.

    Firstly, turnout for the referendum was much higher than at General Elections. Therefore, among voters in the General, it is possible that 52% voted Remain.

    Secondly, your definition of "centrist" is just one person. The reality is that the centre is perhaps 12% moderate leavers and 8% moderate remainers - all of whom came to their decision only after great difficulty.

    Thirdly, it assumes that Brexit is the be-all-and-end-all for voters. It isn't, otherwise the LibDems would have tapped into the 28% and done rather better than they did last year.
    Turnout at the referendum was 72%, admittedly the highest since the 1992 general election for a UK wide vote but still turnout at the 2017 general election was not that much lower at 69% and the Tories and Labour got 82% combined backing Brexit.

    As Leave won the centrist median voter has to be a Leaver, that does not mean moderate and wavering voters did not consider both sides but in the end a majority voted Leave.

    Reversing Brexit certainly is not the be all and end all for voters apart from a small minority of diehard Remainers
    "the centrist median voter": that makes no sense. The median person has equal numbers of people who are less x than him, and more x than him, in the population. What is x here?
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 132

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    The ones the Cons need are.
    The ones who will vote Conservative next time put stopping Corbyn ahead of stopping Brexit
    You hope.

    This reliance on Corbyn being unsaleable didn't exactly work last year did it? And perhaps after another few years of cack-handed attacks, the public will be willing to give him a try. We Brits like eccentrics and underdogs.

    To be blunt: May and the Conservatives need to develop a positive vision for the country that is not navel-gazing Brexit sh*t. Pointing at the opposition and shouting "he smells!" won't work.

    Sadly, I don't think May, or even the Conservative Party as a whole, have it in them. They did give the impression that they only want power for power's sake.

    People didn’t think Corbyn could win last time. That was one reason why large numbers of older Tory voters didn’t turn out.

    Next time they will......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    The ones the Cons need are.
    The ones who will vote Conservative next time put stopping Corbyn ahead of stopping Brexit
    You hope.

    This reliance on Corbyn being unsaleable didn't exactly work last year did it? And perhaps after another few years of cack-handed attacks, the public will be willing to give him a try. We Brits like eccentrics and underdogs.

    To be blunt: May and the Conservatives need to develop a positive vision for the country that is not navel-gazing Brexit sh*t. Pointing at the opposition and shouting "he smells!" won't work.

    Sadly, I don't think May, or even the Conservative Party as a whole, have it in them. They did give the impression that they only want power for power's sake.
    The Tories got 42% last year, their highest voteshare since 1983, in large part because they won a clear majority of Leavers and a number of Remainers were determined to keep Corbyn out.

    Yes they need to look at other issues as well but delivering a clear Brexit which the Leave voting majority voted for is also vital if the Tories are to achieve a majority next time
    Yet they lost seats. And the same attacks that worked last year will have either lost potency by the next GE through repetition, or be invalid as Corbyn gets his act together.

    Look, I want a strong, positive and forward-looking Conservative Party. That is not what we've got, and I doubt we'll get it under May.

    Complacency, thy name is HYUFD.
    They lost seats because of the dementia tax debacle and Corbyn rallying the left behind them, not because of Brexit.

    If anyone was complacent it is Remainers who took victory in the EU referendum as in the bag
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    While that may or may not be true, that conclusion does not logically follow from the premise.
    The centre on Brexit is the middle 50%, so if Leave got 52% the centrist voter on Brexit is by definition a moderate Leaver
    There are a number of logical fallacies there.

    Firstly, turnout for the referendum was much higher than at General Elections. Therefore, among voters in the General, it is possible that 52% voted Remain.

    Secondly, your definition of "centrist" is just one person. The reality is that the centre is perhaps 12% moderate leavers and 8% moderate remainers - all of whom came to their decision only after great difficulty.

    Thirdly, it assumes that Brexit is the be-all-and-end-all for voters. It isn't, otherwise the LibDems would have tapped into the 28% and done rather better than they did last year.
    Turnout at the referendum was 72%, admittedly the highest since the 1992 general election for a UK wide vote but still turnout at the 2017 general election was not that much lower at 69% and the Tories and Labour got 82% combined backing Brexit.

    As Leave won the centrist median voter has to be a Leaver, that does not mean moderate and wavering voters did not consider both sides but in the end a majority voted Leave.

    Reversing Brexit certainly is not the be all and end all for voters apart from a small minority of diehard Remainers
    "the centrist median voter": that makes no sense. The median person has equal numbers of people who are less x than him, and more x than him, in the population. What is x here?
    Degree of Brexit-ness, in HYUFD world
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 15,158
    I hate these poll sets with a simple 'stayed the same' question. It negates the whole set because it is impossible to differentiate between those for whom 'stay the same' means still hate and those for whom it means still like.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited March 3
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), meansurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    While that may or may not be true, that conclusion does not logically follow from the premise.
    The centre on Brexit is the middle 50%, so if Leave got 52% the centrist voter on Brexit is by definition a moderate Leaver
    There are a number of logical fao the 28% and done rather better than they did last year.
    Turnout at the referendum was 72%, admittedly the highest since the 1992 general election for a UK wide vote but still turnout at the 2017 general election was not that much lower at 69% and the Tories and Labour got 82% combined backing Brexit.

    As Leave won the centrist median voter has to be a Leaver, that does not mean moderate and wavering voters did not consider both sides but in the end a majority voted Leave.

    Reversing Brexit certainly is not the be all and end all for voters apart from a small minority of diehard Remainers
    "the centrist median voter": that makes no sense. The median person has equal numbers of people who are less x than him, and more x than him, in the population. What is x here?
    A Leave voter
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 132

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    The ones the Cons need are.
    The ones who will vote Conservative next time put stopping Corbyn ahead of stopping Brexit
    You hope.

    This reliance on Corbyn being unsaleable didn't exactly work last year did it? And perhaps after another few years of cack-handed attacks, the public will be willing to give him a try. We Brits like eccentrics and underdogs.

    To be blunt: May and the Conservatives need to develop a positive vision for the country that is not navel-gazing Brexit sh*t. Pointing at the opposition and shouting "he smells!" won't work.

    Sadly, I don't think May, or even the Conservative Party as a whole, have it in them. They did give the impression that they only want power for power's sake.
    The Tories got 42% last year, their highest voteshare since 1983, in large part because they won a clear majority of Leavers and a number of Remainers were determined to keep Corbyn out.

    Yes they need to look at other issues as well but delivering a clear Brexit which the Leave voting majority voted for is also vital if the Tories are to achieve a majority next time
    Yet they lost seats. And the same attacks that worked last year will have either lost potency by the next GE through repetition, or be invalid as Corbyn gets his act together.

    Look, I want a strong, positive and forward-looking Conservative Party. That is not what we've got, and I doubt we'll get it under May.

    Complacency, thy name is HYUFD.
    One shouldn’t be complacent as a Tory, certainly. But nor should one buy into this “Corbyn inexorability” narrative.

    Corbyn remains very unpopular in large parts of the country that Labour needs to make inroads into. And next time large numbers of people will be highly motivated to turn out and vote against Labour...

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Oh shit, he’s actually trying to start a bloody trade war. :open_mouth:
    The US might "win" a trade war - in that the EU and China are hurt more than the US - but that won't make up for the increased unemployment and inevitable recession.

    (I'd also note that while Germany exports $22bn of cars to the US, that's not actually that much in the general scheme of things.)
    If you think that China is an existential threat to the US (which Trump probably does) you may calculate that it's worth damaging their economy, even if it harms the US too.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Bridge, not sure whether to give this weight or not, but I was speaking to my mother the other day about something or other, and she raised Corbyn's love of the customs union as going down like a lead balloon in some parts of the North (one comment she mentioned was that a northern lefty had said Corbyn should be put up against the wall).

    Suspect if it does have an effect it'll be to depress Labour turnout, mostly in areas they'll win easily anyway, rather than causing straight red to blue shifts.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,325
    edited March 3
    Where the tories are failing is letting corbyn 70s reheated socialist outlook pass without successfully countering my how flawed it is. When miliband started banging on about good vs bad companies, the tories killed him. Corbyn suggests killing the city to help the “genuine” economy and nothing.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637
    rcs1000 said:

    OK. World's best business class product :)

    Hard product (i.e. the seat): it's probably American Airlines (seriously). Very private, every seat has isle access, and lots of space.

    Soft Product (i.e. food, drink and service): lots to choose from - Singapore, Emirates, Qatar, New Zealand and Virgin

    British Airways has pretty poor hard product, and average soft product (although I would add that my last flight from London to LA was among the best I've had on BA from a food and drink perspective).

    Virgin's hard product is good, as is it's soft product. (And their lounges are excellent.) A solid offering.

    I would put an honourable mention in for Air New Zealand, which you can do return Business Class LA-London for £3,500. The seats are the same as Virgin, and the food and drink is pretty good.

    Best First Class? Singapore Airlines or Qatar. Both outstanding.

    On your scale from the last thread I’ve got a mate who busts it.

    He doesn’t fly his own plane because the only one he’s got is Gadaffi’s old jumbo and it’s seriously fuel inefficient. So he borrows one from his Daf’s old business partner instead... (but only when it’s cheaper than flying commercial)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    rcs1000 said:

    Thirdly, it assumes that Brexit is the be-all-and-end-all for voters. It isn't, otherwise the LibDems would have tapped into the 28% and done rather better than they did last year.

    Do you mean the 48% or is there some significance to 28% I haven't spotted?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    Given 52% of the electorate who voted voted Leave in June 2016 and 48% voted Remain, Remainers are by definition not centrist voters, at least in terms of Brexit
    The ones the Cons need are.
    The ones who will vote Conservative next time put stopping Corbyn ahead of stopping Brexit
    You hope.

    This reliance on Corbyn being unsaleable didn't exactly work last year did it? And perhaps after another few years of cack-handed attacks, the public will be willing to give him a try. We Brits like eccentrics and underdogs.

    To be blunt: May and the Conservatives need to develop a positive vision for the country that is not navel-gazing Brexit sh*t. Pointing at the opposition and shouting "he smells!" won't work.

    Sadly, I don't think May, or even the Conservative Party as a whole, have it in them. They did give the impression that they only want power for power's sake.

    People didn’t think Corbyn could win last time. That was one reason why large numbers of older Tory voters didn’t turn out.

    Next time they will......
    Labour candidates didn't think Corbyn could win either. They asked for personal votes instead. Has anyone considered that these peronal votes happened, support for Corbyn didn't?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637
    TOPPING said:

    In the minds of many Remainers the simple act of advocating Brexit, with all the associated ills (some justified - alien registration, etc), means that the Cons have moved firmly to the right. Add to that the unwelcome presence of Redwood, Cash, JRM, etc and I don't think the Cons are going to pick up any centrist votes any time soon.

    So who to go to for NOTA? Can only be the LDs because (no offence) they are not seen as representing anything in particular and are in no chance of gaining power, even in coalition. Their Brexit stance is no more politically astute than their previous hypothecation advocacy.

    Hence I foresee a resurgence.

    At 42% they are most definitely picking up centrist votes.

    Or the centre is a lot smaller than you think
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    edited March 3

    Mr. Bridge, not sure whether to give this weight or not, but I was speaking to my mother the other day about something or other, and she raised Corbyn's love of the customs union as going down like a lead balloon in some parts of the North (one comment she mentioned was that a northern lefty had said Corbyn should be put up against the wall).

    Charming. But then we had a lefty poster on this forum today wishing Iain Duncan Smith had been murdered (and tbf was heavily criticised by another lefty poster) we have John McDonnell endorsing the lynching of Esther McVey and a Leader of the Opposition joking about four murdered rivals being 'a very good start.'

    It almost makes me nostalgic for the days when Tony Banks said William Hague was a foetus who should be aborted.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Urquhart, absolutely agree on that point. May should appoint a small team solely focused on rebutting Corbynite bullshit, whilst she and the rest focus on leaving the EU.
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