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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Interesting news for those of us betting on the year of Trump’

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Interesting news for those of us betting on the year of Trump’s exit date

CNN obtained a tape of Trump at a closed-door fundraiser. He said this about China's president: "He's now president for life. President for life. And he's great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it's great. Maybe we'll give that a shot some day." https://t.co/FzLjVtlhl1

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241
    edited March 4
    1st like it was on Thursday.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    edited March 4
    Too much too young.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    Maybe he will be grievously injured taking a bullet whilst fighting off a school shooter - and life President will be the gift bestowed by a grateful nation.

    That, or Putin will fix it for him.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,236
    I don't think there is any prospect of the US changing the rules, but I do think that Trump admires Xi doing what Putin has done. Trump buys into the idea of the "strongman", and sees himself in that way.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,857
    Housing Secretary Fails To Spend £72m Affordable Homes Cash Despite UK-Wide Crisis
    Cash was 'surrendered' to the Treasury as it was deemed 'no longer required' this year.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 903
    CNN gets outraged by what is obviously a bad Trump joke! Nothing new there.

    The fact that it will be almost impossible for the Dems to retake the Senate this year as 24 of the 32 seats up are held by Democrats means Trump being removed from office in his first term is highly unlikely. Lots of speculation and rumour but nothing that serious seems to stick on him personally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited March 4
    If Trump had pretty much absolute power like Xi I expect he would like to declare himself President for Life but the US constitution and Congress would bar that.

    Though certainly do not count Trump out yet, after all Silvio Berlusconi, a fellow billionaire populist with a taste for exaggeration and fondness for women is likely to return as Kingmaker in Italy at 81 today having already been PM multiple times
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    edited March 4
    FPT, I think the last Chinese military adventure was 1979 - the last (or at least, most recent) Sino-Vietnamese war.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited March 4

    FPT, I think the last Chinese miliatary adventure was 1979 - the last (or at least, most recent) Sino-Vietnamese war.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

    Which I think proves the point that while clearly a challenger to the US as an economic superpower, China is nowhere near challenging the USA as a foreign policy superpower unlike Russia
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    HYUFD said:

    FPT, I think the last Chinese miliatary adventure was 1979 - the last (or at least, most recent) Sino-Vietnamese war.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

    Which I think proves the point that while clearly a challenger to the US as an economic superpower, China is nowhere near challenging the USA as a foreign policy superpower unlike Russia
    We could argue their taking control of islands in the South China Seas is aggressive expansionism, but as their ownership is less clear cut, they would just say they are reinforcing their borders.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    HYUFD said:

    FPT, I think the last Chinese miliatary adventure was 1979 - the last (or at least, most recent) Sino-Vietnamese war.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

    Which I think proves the point that while clearly a challenger to the US as an economic superpower, China is nowhere near challenging the USA as a foreign policy superpower unlike Russia
    We could argue their taking control of islands in the South China Seas is aggressive expansionism, but as their ownership is less clear cut, they would just say they are reinforcing their borders.....
    That is like us challenging for control of the Isle of Wight or Jersey, on a global scale it means next to nothing
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,773
    Xi who must be obeyed.

    I rescue my joke from the thread that disappeared.

    Xi Jinping is storing trouble for himself by abolishing the ten year rule, where you have a designated successor who will take over at the end of your term. The beauty of the rule for the incumbent is that succession challenges focus on your deputy, not on you. Meanwhile your deputy is incentivised to be loyal to you as he knows he will take over.

    From what I can see Chinese social media is unimpressed by Xi's move. I guess you could make the same accusations against them as the Twitterati. Thing is, intellectuals have caused several major upsets over the past one hundred years of Chinese history.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,773
    I think TSE protests too much and is trolling POTUS.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 738
    edited March 4
    HYUFD said:


    That is like us challenging for control of the Isle of Wight or Jersey, on a global scale it means next to nothing

    Rather a greater distance - the most distant ones they claim are 1700km from the mainland. It's about the same distance as the UK > Greenland, or to Africa.

    Then there's the small matter of how much of global trade goes through those waters......
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,552

    Maybe he will be grievously injured taking a bullet whilst fighting off a school shooter - and life President will be the gift bestowed by a grateful nation.

    That, or Putin will fix it for him.

    I thought all Tories were Trump fans, Mr Mark.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,773

    HYUFD said:

    FPT, I think the last Chinese miliatary adventure was 1979 - the last (or at least, most recent) Sino-Vietnamese war.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

    Which I think proves the point that while clearly a challenger to the US as an economic superpower, China is nowhere near challenging the USA as a foreign policy superpower unlike Russia
    We could argue their taking control of islands in the South China Seas is aggressive expansionism, but as their ownership is less clear cut, they would just say they are reinforcing their borders.....
    The Chinese have an obsession with small islands. There's something in the national characteristic that makes them go bonkers over them. There was a tiny island in a river that was the border with the Soviet Union that they almost went to war over in the 1960's

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhenbao_Island
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:


    That is like us challenging for control of the Isle of Wight or Jersey, on a global scale it means next to nothing

    Rather a greater distance - the most distant ones they claim are 1700km from the mainland. It's about the same distance as the UK > Greenland, or to Africa.

    Then there's the small matter of how much of global trade goes through those waters......
    Greenland is part of Denmark of course
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,574
    "I’ll never understand the mentality of trolling and winding up. ..."

    Yup TSE - not something you'd ever do.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    @rebeccaballhaus: On ABC, Chris Christie indirectly calling for Kushner and others to resign: “I think what the staff has to do is in fact what Hope Hicks did.”

    Hicks, he says, decided, “If I’m not 100% an asset for the president, I'm going to back away."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    @jaketapper: Peter Navarro says POTUS will apply steel and aluminum tariffs across the board, with “no country exclusions.” Action expected at the end of the week. #CNNSOTU
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,773
    glw said:

    I don't think there is any prospect of the US changing the rules, but I do think that Trump admires Xi doing what Putin has done. Trump buys into the idea of the "strongman", and sees himself in that way.

    I doubt however that Xi admires Trump.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    Scott_P said:

    @jaketapper: Peter Navarro says POTUS will apply steel and aluminum tariffs across the board, with “no country exclusions.” Action expected at the end of the week. #CNNSOTU

    Called it last night.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517

    Called it last night.

    Gets better though...

    @FoxNewsSunday: Peter Navarro, White House Trade Adviser tells Chris: The downstream effect of these tariffs are insignificant and the mission here is to preserve our steel and aluminum industries.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,620
    Something has gone bang in Harold Hill (near Romford)

    hopefully no loss of life




  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    HYUFD said:

    FPT, I think the last Chinese miliatary adventure was 1979 - the last (or at least, most recent) Sino-Vietnamese war.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

    Which I think proves the point that while clearly a challenger to the US as an economic superpower, China is nowhere near challenging the USA as a foreign policy superpower unlike Russia
    China is immensely more powerful than Russia and could flatten them without breaking sweat should the need ever arise. You speak as if engaging in a succession of expensive, debilitating, pointless foreign wars makes a country more of a military superpower....China would certainly argue that their strategy of carrying a very big stick and using it sparingly and with lots of carrots has been far smarter. Go anywhere in Africa today and try to argue that China isn't a foreign policy superpower, they virtually own the entire continent.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 139
    Very cold weather can result in cracked gas mains which usually results in large sudden bangs...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Surprised how foggy it is. Visibility must be circa 50 yards. Maybe less.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,252

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Surprised how foggy it is. Visibility must be circa 50 yards. Maybe less.

    You've got the wife's glasses on again.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. L, perhaps. But as I'm not married, she must be someone else's wife.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,144
    Penddu said:

    Very cold weather can result in cracked gas mains which usually results in large sudden bangs...

    Like the Shrewsbury gas explosion in 2010. Grave injuries but apparently no admission of liability:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-25628492

    Surely, if you operate a gas main which explodes, you're liable for the injuries?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,325

    Mr. L, perhaps. But as I'm not married, she must be someone else's wife.

    Have you been going to those swingers events again...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Urquhart, we morris dancers are renowned for our pure and virtuous nature.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,325
    Arsenal lose four successive games for first time since 2002

    Surely it is time to wave arsene bye bye?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135

    Arsenal lose four successive games for first time since 2002

    Surely it is time to wave arsene bye bye?

    How long has he been in charge? It feels like forever.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,869
    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    I don't think there is any prospect of the US changing the rules, but I do think that Trump admires Xi doing what Putin has done. Trump buys into the idea of the "strongman", and sees himself in that way.

    I doubt however that Xi admires Trump.
    Does anybody?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    AndyJS said:

    Arsenal lose four successive games for first time since 2002

    Surely it is time to wave arsene bye bye?

    How long has he been in charge? It feels like forever.
    Since 1996.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 843
    I'd like to see him go out on a high, not sure how possible that is though. I think he's an incredible manager, circumstances and loyalty saw him achieve less than his talent and ability deserves. Though the last couple of years have been poor.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    edited March 4
    It'll be ironic if the party formerly known as the Northern League does very well in Sicily. Apparently it's a possibility.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,869
    brendan16 said:

    CNN gets outraged by what is obviously a bad Trump joke! Nothing new there.

    The fact that it will be almost impossible for the Dems to retake the Senate this year as 24 of the 32 seats up are held by Democrats means Trump being removed from office in his first term is highly unlikely. Lots of speculation and rumour but nothing that serious seems to stick on him personally.

    Yes, it's almost impossible - say like the Democrats winning a senate seat in Alabama.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    Sometimes the obvious needs stating:

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617

    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    I don't think there is any prospect of the US changing the rules, but I do think that Trump admires Xi doing what Putin has done. Trump buys into the idea of the "strongman", and sees himself in that way.

    I doubt however that Xi admires Trump.
    Does anybody?
    Trump
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,675
    An exquisite last paragraph, TSE. Kudos.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,620
    Shall we call it Goodwins Law?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,252
    We don't know that at all.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311

    I'd like to see him go out on a high, not sure how possible that is though. I think he's an incredible manager, circumstances and loyalty saw him achieve less than his talent and ability deserves. Though the last couple of years have been poor.

    I hadn't realised you were such a Trump fan, Jezziah.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,470
    OK, put my eighth of silver on Tajani (the favourite - but beyond evens)

    Votes for each coalition, and for the 5*, have been very consistent for months.

    35-39 Right

    25 - 30 the other two
  • In fairness to Trump, this was just a joke. He's better at self-aggrandising humour than self-effacing of course, and this is an example, but it doesn't mean a lot.

    One thing I would say is that, when he came in, I thought Trump may find a health or other pretext to bow out, undefeated, in 2020. I think he's been clear enough that he won't do that.
  • RogueywonRogueywon Posts: 23
    I thought the dinner he was speaking at was one where there's a tradition of Presidents making off-colour jokes? Isn't it the same event where Obama provoked Trump into running back in 2011?

    I think turning this into a "desire to repeal the 22nd Amendment" is going a bit OTT.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Won, I wonder if Obama regrets that speech taunting 'the Donald'.

    Welcome to PB.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 843

    I'd like to see him go out on a high, not sure how possible that is though. I think he's an incredible manager, circumstances and loyalty saw him achieve less than his talent and ability deserves. Though the last couple of years have been poor.

    I hadn't realised you were such a Trump fan, Jezziah.
    Lol! you all doubt him but you'll see *shakes fist* ;)

    On topic: Guesswork really but my expectation at the moment would be a Trump second term.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,252
    Floater said:

    Something has gone bang in Harold Hill (near Romford)

    hopefully no loss of life




    Gas -- no-one hurt.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-43279631
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT, I think the last Chinese miliatary adventure was 1979 - the last (or at least, most recent) Sino-Vietnamese war.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

    Which I think proves the point that while clearly a challenger to the US as an economic superpower, China is nowhere near challenging the USA as a foreign policy superpower unlike Russia
    China is immensely more powerful than Russia and could flatten them without breaking sweat should the need ever arise. You speak as if engaging in a succession of expensive, debilitating, pointless foreign wars makes a country more of a military superpower....China would certainly argue that their strategy of carrying a very big stick and using it sparingly and with lots of carrots has been far smarter. Go anywhere in Africa today and try to argue that China isn't a foreign policy superpower, they virtually own the entire continent.
    Yes but the point is it does not. China has economic influence no doubt but unless it is prepared to send military forces to any corner of the globe where necessary as the US is or at least significantly further afield as Russia is in say the Middle East it will not be a serious rival to the USA as a foreign policy superpower only in the economic field
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    edited March 4
    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:


    That is like us challenging for control of the Isle of Wight or Jersey, on a global scale it means next to nothing

    Rather a greater distance - the most distant ones they claim are 1700km from the mainland. It's about the same distance as the UK > Greenland, or to Africa.

    Then there's the small matter of how much of global trade goes through those waters......
    Greenland is part of Denmark of course
    Does Denmark claim all the water between Copenhagen and Nuuk as their exclusive economic zone?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    It would be amusing if Donald Trump got rid of the 22nd amendment, enabling Barack Obama’s return.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,330
    Penddu said:

    Very cold weather can result in cracked gas mains which usually results in large sudden bangs...

    We passed a leaking gas pipe on our walk, though on a road junction where the gas can escape to the open air
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:


    That is like us challenging for control of the Isle of Wight or Jersey, on a global scale it means next to nothing

    Rather a greater distance - the most distant ones they claim are 1700km from the mainland. It's about the same distance as the UK > Greenland, or to Africa.

    Then there's the small matter of how much of global trade goes through those waters......
    Greenland is part of Denmark of course
    Does Denmark claim all the water between Copenhagen and Nuuk as their exclusive economic zone?
    Even if it did it would not make it a global foreign policy superpower
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    edited March 4

    brendan16 said:

    CNN gets outraged by what is obviously a bad Trump joke! Nothing new there.

    The fact that it will be almost impossible for the Dems to retake the Senate this year as 24 of the 32 seats up are held by Democrats means Trump being removed from office in his first term is highly unlikely. Lots of speculation and rumour but nothing that serious seems to stick on him personally.

    Yes, it's almost impossible - say like the Democrats winning a senate seat in Alabama.
    The Democrats are more likely to go backwards than forwards in the Senate this year.

    Their possible pick-ups are:

    Nevada: it's been trending Democrat for a while, and Hillary won it in 2016. I'd reckon it's probably a 65% chance of a Dem win.

    Arizona: again, it's a state where the Dems have been making ground for a while. The Republican incumbent (Jeff Flake) is not standing, and controversial (pardoned by Trump) sheriff Joe Arpaio is second in polls for the Republican nomination. If they pick Arpaio, then I think the Dems win Arizona. But I don't think they will; it's therefore probably just a 25% chance of a Dem gain.

    You could add Texas as a very long shot (Ted Cruz has negative favourables, believe it or not), and the Dems have chosen someone very Centrist. But the chance can't be greater than 5% or so. (The recent rally in oil prices will have boosted the local economy too.)

    And then they have to defend West Virginia (a strong Trump state, but Joe Manchin is a very popular Senator), Missouri (also went heavily for Trump), Florida, Indiana, Montana, Wisconsin, Ohio, and North Dakota. Some of those are *very* Red states, others are rust belt states that went heavily for Trump in 2016.

    My guess is that the Republicans will probably pick up Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota, but will lose Nevada, moving the Republicans from 51 seats to 53.

    Edit to add: Tennessee is probably another possible chance of a Dem pickup if Corker does not seek re-election and if former Governor Phil Bredesen is the Democratic nominee.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,547
    edited March 4
    I said a few weeks ago that, boiled down, the vote was about controlling immigration over economic growth.

    Unless there is an actual recession, the economic argument against Brexit was already baked into the vote and no amount of economic argument is going to change minds.

    If Remainers want to lead opinion, they have to confront the immigration question and the desire for “control”. Just as Brexiters had no plan for Brexit, I haven’t seen much Remain argument on how to square the immigration circle within the EU.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,097
    Interesting that Ian Paisley has retweeted Nigel Farage saying that Theresa May isn't up to it. Are the DUP losing faith?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,162
    @CarlottaVance, if you or Matthew Goodwin want to start a debate about immigration policy, nobody is stopping you.

    Sometimes the obvious needs stating:
    h ttps://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/970318158350487553?s=20

  • FF43 said:

    Xi who must be obeyed.

    I rescue my joke from the thread that disappeared.

    Xi Jinping is storing trouble for himself by abolishing the ten year rule, where you have a designated successor who will take over at the end of your term. The beauty of the rule for the incumbent is that succession challenges focus on your deputy, not on you. Meanwhile your deputy is incentivised to be loyal to you as he knows he will take over.

    From what I can see Chinese social media is unimpressed by Xi's move. I guess you could make the same accusations against them as the Twitterati. Thing is, intellectuals have caused several major upsets over the past one hundred years of Chinese history.

    How many of them dream of making the same mistake. One of the very few uncontroversial statements of Enoch Powell was that all political careers end in failure. A very wise assertion, but not perfectly true. Time-limited office is the one way of possibly defeating the maxim. Thus, it might be considered the careers of Reagan, Bush junior, Clinton and Obama all defeated Enoch's maxim.

    Xi would be wise to leave well alone, as would have been Putin. Without a time limit getting rid of leaders becomes an issue in itself. Both Thatcher and Blair would have greatly benefitted from a ten years and no more rule.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 843
    sheriff Joe Arpaio
    ...........................

    This guy embodies some of the worst aspects of the GOP pre Trump for me.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,488
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:


    That is like us challenging for control of the Isle of Wight or Jersey, on a global scale it means next to nothing

    Rather a greater distance - the most distant ones they claim are 1700km from the mainland. It's about the same distance as the UK > Greenland, or to Africa.

    Then there's the small matter of how much of global trade goes through those waters......
    Greenland is part of Denmark of course
    Does Denmark claim all the water between Copenhagen and Nuuk as their exclusive economic zone?
    Even if it did it would not make it a global foreign policy superpower
    I don't thinkXi loses sleep over his place in the HYUFD global foreign policy superpower rankings. I do think this is significant:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-04/china-refrains-from-releasing-annual-military-spending-target

    Last we knew, China spent $160bn a year on the military, to the US 700bn. Still a lot of money, and probably not far off the US at all when you lay off for the difference in wages and allow for the excess profits of the US weapons industry. And China has 2m active service personnel as against the US 1.4m. I'd be inclined to take that seriously even if you don't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    FF43 said:

    Xi who must be obeyed.

    I rescue my joke from the thread that disappeared.

    Xi Jinping is storing trouble for himself by abolishing the ten year rule, where you have a designated successor who will take over at the end of your term. The beauty of the rule for the incumbent is that succession challenges focus on your deputy, not on you. Meanwhile your deputy is incentivised to be loyal to you as he knows he will take over.

    From what I can see Chinese social media is unimpressed by Xi's move. I guess you could make the same accusations against them as the Twitterati. Thing is, intellectuals have caused several major upsets over the past one hundred years of Chinese history.

    How many of them dream of making the same mistake. One of the very few uncontroversial statements of Enoch Powell was that all political careers end in failure. A very wise assertion, but not perfectly true. Time-limited office is the one way of possibly defeating the maxim. Thus, it might be considered the careers of Reagan, Bush junior, Clinton and Obama all defeated Enoch's maxim.

    Xi would be wise to leave well alone, as would have been Putin. Without a time limit getting rid of leaders becomes an issue in itself. Both Thatcher and Blair would have greatly benefitted from a ten years and no more rule.
    In a democratic society if you stay on too long normally the electorate decides the matter for you. E.g. Kohl lost to Schroder after 16 years in power and Thatcher would likely have lost to Kinnock in 1992 and Blair to Cameron in 2010 after 13 years in power each
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,651

    Interesting that Ian Paisley has retweeted Nigel Farage saying that Theresa May isn't up to it. Are the DUP losing faith?

    Birds of an EU passport retaining feather flock together.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited March 4
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:


    That is like us challenging for control of the Isle of Wight or Jersey, on a global scale it means next to nothing

    Rather a greater distance - the most distant ones they claim are 1700km from the mainland. It's about the same distance as the UK > Greenland, or to Africa.

    Then there's the small matter of how much of global trade goes through those waters......
    Greenland is part of Denmark of course
    Does Denmark claim all the water between Copenhagen and Nuuk as their exclusive economic zone?
    Even if it did it would not make it a global foreign policy superpower
    I don't thinkXi loses sleep over his place in the HYUFD global foreign policy superpower rankings. I do think this is significant:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-04/china-refrains-from-releasing-annual-military-spending-target

    Last we knew, China spent $160bn a year on the military, to the US 700bn. Still a lot of money, and probably not far off the US at all when you lay off for the difference in wages and allow for the excess profits of the US weapons industry. And China has 2m active service personnel as against the US 1.4m. I'd be inclined to take that seriously even if you don't.
    Well nobody is going to invade China no but in the troubleshots and potential troubleshots of the world from the Middle East to the Baltic states China is nowhere.

    You cannot be a foreign policy superpower unless you are prepared to deploy forces and airpower overseas if necessary
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    Interesting that Ian Paisley has retweeted Nigel Farage saying that Theresa May isn't up to it. Are the DUP losing faith?

    If he is tweeting Farage that means the DUP moves to Boris or Mogg, ie an even tougher line on Brexit than May
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,620
    Pulpstar said:

    Penddu said:

    Very cold weather can result in cracked gas mains which usually results in large sudden bangs...

    We passed a leaking gas pipe on our walk, though on a road junction where the gas can escape to the open air
    The Harold Hill explosion was the gas canister in a fridge - nothing major
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,097
    I would urge Conservatives on here to read this thread:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974
    A big question I have about China is how heavily we can rely on their economic figures.

    We find it hard enough to calculate our GDP and economy, and there are frequent revisions. Our economy is fairly open, as are the underlying figures.

    China's is much more closed, and I do wonder if they'll face he same problem that Russia did in the 1960s and 1970s, with the economic figures released to the outside world being based more in fiction than reality.

    Russia managed to keep going for two or three decades before the truth hit them, hard. I have absolutely zero doubt that China's growing massively fast; but if they are frequently not growing as fast as they claim, their economy may have real issues in the future.

    (Note: I am not an economist).
  • HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Xi who must be obeyed.

    I rescue my joke from the thread that disappeared.

    Xi Jinping is storing trouble for himself by abolishing the ten year rule, where you have a designated successor who will take over at the end of your term. The beauty of the rule for the incumbent is that succession challenges focus on your deputy, not on you. Meanwhile your deputy is incentivised to be loyal to you as he knows he will take over.

    From what I can see Chinese social media is unimpressed by Xi's move. I guess you could make the same accusations against them as the Twitterati. Thing is, intellectuals have caused several major upsets over the past one hundred years of Chinese history.

    How many of them dream of making the same mistake. One of the very few uncontroversial statements of Enoch Powell was that all political careers end in failure. A very wise assertion, but not perfectly true. Time-limited office is the one way of possibly defeating the maxim. Thus, it might be considered the careers of Reagan, Bush junior, Clinton and Obama all defeated Enoch's maxim.

    Xi would be wise to leave well alone, as would have been Putin. Without a time limit getting rid of leaders becomes an issue in itself. Both Thatcher and Blair would have greatly benefitted from a ten years and no more rule.
    In a democratic society if you stay on too long normally the electorate decides the matter for you. E.g. Kohl lost to Schroder after 16 years in power and Thatcher would likely have lost to Kinnock in 1992 and Blair to Cameron in 2010 after 13 years in power each
    Exactly what I mean - these were/ would all have been failures, and having to go to avoid them is a failure, as obviously was being defeated by your own side. A fixed term obviates this and would I think defeat Enoch's maxim. It also gives you a genuine chance of becoming an elder statesman. Cameron saw the problem, but having to concede you will be going to resign is surely a vicarious defeat.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    PClipp said:

    Maybe he will be grievously injured taking a bullet whilst fighting off a school shooter - and life President will be the gift bestowed by a grateful nation.

    That, or Putin will fix it for him.

    I thought all Tories were Trump fans, Mr Mark.
    Seriously?

    Although I couldn't have voted for Hillary either.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,466
    HYUFD said:



    Well nobody is going to invade China no but in the troubleshots and potential troubleshots of the world from the Middle East to the Baltic states China is nowhere.

    You cannot be a foreign policy superpower unless you are prepared to deploy forces and airpower overseas if necessary

    China seems to have quite a lot of soft power, coupled with a sensible restraint in using military force. At present, and I never hought I'd say this, I have more confidence in China as a helpful player in world affairs than either American or Russia. An autocracy with all kinds of undesirable features, but, well, not nuts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Xi who must be obeyed.

    I rescue my joke from the thread that disappeared.

    Xi Jinping is storing trouble for himself by abolishing the ten year rule, where you have a designated successor who will take over at the end of your term. The beauty of the rule for the incumbent is that succession challenges focus on your deputy, not on you. Meanwhile your deputy is incentivised to be loyal to you as he knows he will take over.

    From what I can see Chinese social media is unimpressed by Xi's move. I guess you could make the same accusations against them as the Twitterati. Thing is, intellectuals have caused several major upsets over the past one hundred years of Chinese history.

    How many of them dream of making the same mistake. One of the very few uncontroversial statements of Enoch Powell was that all political careers end in failure. A very wise assertion, but not perfectly true. Time-limited office is the one way of possibly defeating the maxim. Thus, it might be considered the careers of Reagan, Bush junior, Clinton and Obama all defeated Enoch's maxim.

    Xi would be wise to leave well alone, as would have been Putin. Without a time limit getting rid of leaders becomes an issue in itself. Both Thatcher and Blair would have greatly benefitted from a ten years and no more rule.
    In a democratic society if you stay on too long normally the electorate decides the matter for you. E.g. Kohl lost to Schroder after 16 years in power and Thatcher would likely have lost to Kinnock in 1992 and Blair to Cameron in 2010 after 13 years in power each
    Exactly what I mean - these were/ would all have been failures, and having to go to avoid them is a failure, as obviously was being defeated by your own side. A fixed term obviates this and would I think defeat Enoch's maxim. It also gives you a genuine chance of becoming an elder statesman. Cameron saw the problem, but having to concede you will be going to resign is surely a vicarious defeat.
    Neither Kohl, Thatcher or even Cameron and Blair were failures but yes stepping down at a time set in law does give you a greater chance of standing aside with dignity
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,848
    HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT, I think the last Chinese miliatary adventure was 1979 - the last (or at least, most recent) Sino-Vietnamese war.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

    Which I think proves the point that while clearly a challenger to the US as an economic superpower, China is nowhere near challenging the USA as a foreign policy superpower unlike Russia
    China is immensely more powerful than Russia and could flatten them without breaking sweat should the need ever arise. You speak as if engaging in a succession of expensive, debilitating, pointless foreign wars makes a country more of a military superpower....China would certainly argue that their strategy of carrying a very big stick and using it sparingly and with lots of carrots has been far smarter. Go anywhere in Africa today and try to argue that China isn't a foreign policy superpower, they virtually own the entire continent.
    Yes but the point is it does not. China has economic influence no doubt but unless it is prepared to send military forces to any corner of the globe where necessary as the US is or at least significantly further afield as Russia is in say the Middle East it will not be a serious rival to the USA as a foreign policy superpower only in the economic field
    The Chinese are quite patient in these matters - and very determined.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_programme
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,146
    Trump is engaged in a series of deliberate minor wag the dog actions. Creating conflict, just not a shooting war.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Jessop, minor point but the Supermodels of SHIELD first episode is long (about an hour and fifty minutes, I think), so if you're planning to do as I am, and watch one show on +1 and the other 'live', I'd suggest watching Homeland and using the E4+1 for SHIELD.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    edited March 4
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT, I think the last Chinese miliatary adventure was 1979 - the last (or at least, most recent) Sino-Vietnamese war.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

    Which I think proves the point that while clearly a challenger to the US as an economic superpower, China is nowhere near challenging the USA as a foreign policy superpower unlike Russia
    We could argue their taking control of islands in the South China Seas is aggressive expansionism, but as their ownership is less clear cut, they would just say they are reinforcing their borders.....
    That is like us challenging for control of the Isle of Wight or Jersey, on a global scale it means next to nothing
    That depends on the level of natural resources on/under the seabed around those islands.

    Of course it could just be the Chinese take the view that as South China Sea has "China" in its name, it belongs to China. In which case, next stop for the People's Army is St. Austell - they're coming for their china clay.....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    I think the number of people voting in an Italian general election is usually higher than in UK elections even though their population is lower than ours. The population of Italy is older and the turnout us usually higher.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,905
    HYUFD said:


    In a democratic society if you stay on too long normally the electorate decides the matter for you. E.g. Kohl lost to Schroder after 16 years in power and Thatcher would likely have lost to Kinnock in 1992 and Blair to Cameron in 2010 after 13 years in power each

    The other option is if the electorate doesn't turn on you your own Party will. Thatcher was overthrown by her own backbenchers in 1990 and here in Newham the long Mayoralty of Sir Robin Wales is drawing to its conclusion as he faces an internal Labour challenge.

    Parties change even if leaders don't or can't. The changes within parties can perversely be the manifestation of the societal changes the leader him or herself drove through. It's not often parties can successfully re-invent while in power.

    In time the Party elects a new leader which more accurately reflects where it is politically and societally. Whether that individual is electorally successful is another issue and dependent on other factors.

    On an unrelated, the local Conservative "team" have sent a postcard here in East Ham with a brief mention of the party's Mayoral candidate who has made zero impact since her selection last summer.

    Only being an LD or UKIP candidate will be less rewarding than being a Conservative candidate in Newham this year. It will be interesting to see IF Sir Robin Wales is defeated whether there will be changes in the Ward Councillors.


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    edited March 4

    Interesting that Ian Paisley has retweeted Nigel Farage saying that Theresa May isn't up to it. Are the DUP losing faith?

    Nah, just joining in the trolling.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,651
    PClipp said:

    Maybe he will be grievously injured taking a bullet whilst fighting off a school shooter - and life President will be the gift bestowed by a grateful nation.

    That, or Putin will fix it for him.

    I thought all Tories were Trump fans, Mr Mark.
    To be more precise they were BIG fans of a Tory pm holding hands with him.

    Then they weren't.

    Then they were again.

    Currently they're painfully conflicted.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,885

    A big question I have about China is how heavily we can rely on their economic figures.

    We find it hard enough to calculate our GDP and economy, and there are frequent revisions. Our economy is fairly open, as are the underlying figures.

    China's is much more closed, and I do wonder if they'll face he same problem that Russia did in the 1960s and 1970s, with the economic figures released to the outside world being based more in fiction than reality.

    Russia managed to keep going for two or three decades before the truth hit them, hard. I have absolutely zero doubt that China's growing massively fast; but if they are frequently not growing as fast as they claim, their economy may have real issues in the future.

    (Note: I am not an economist).

    Some experts already believe any growth figs from China should be halved as a best guess as to the real figure
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,162

    I would urge Conservatives on here to read this thread:

    I have been saying this for years. The UK (all sides of the political spectrum, not just Con) live in a bubble where certain elements of space (eg Ireland) or the past (eg the Irish wars, the Highland Clearances) are wilfully ignored in favour of comforting fantasies.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,488
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:


    That is like us challenging for control of the Isle of Wight or Jersey, on a global scale it means next to nothing

    Rather a greater distance - the most distant ones they claim are 1700km from the mainland. It's about the same distance as the UK > Greenland, or to Africa.

    Then there's the small matter of how much of global trade goes through those waters......
    Greenland is part of Denmark of course
    Does Denmark claim all the water between Copenhagen and Nuuk as their exclusive economic zone?
    Even if it did it would not make it a global foreign policy superpower
    I don't thinkXi loses sleep over his place in the HYUFD global foreign policy superpower rankings. I do think this is significant:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-04/china-refrains-from-releasing-annual-military-spending-target

    Last we knew, China spent $160bn a year on the military, to the US 700bn. Still a lot of money, and probably not far off the US at all when you lay off for the difference in wages and allow for the excess profits of the US weapons industry. And China has 2m active service personnel as against the US 1.4m. I'd be inclined to take that seriously even if you don't.
    Well nobody is going to invade China no but in the troubleshots and potential troubleshots of the world from the Middle East to the Baltic states China is nowhere.

    You cannot be a foreign policy superpower unless you are prepared to deploy forces and airpower overseas if necessary
    You say "from the Middle East to the Baltic states" like that isn't a tiny and distant part of the world of which China knows little. I am sure that in the appropriate circumstances we will learn, to no one's astonishment but yours, that China's weapons stash is not purely for home defence.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    PClipp said:

    Maybe he will be grievously injured taking a bullet whilst fighting off a school shooter - and life President will be the gift bestowed by a grateful nation.

    That, or Putin will fix it for him.

    I thought all Tories were Trump fans, Mr Mark.
    To be more precise they were BIG fans of a Tory pm holding hands with him.

    Then they weren't.

    Then they were again.

    Currently they're painfully conflicted.
    I'd be a soft Democrat in the US. Despaired at Dubya getting elected, doubly so at his re-election. Gave a cheer when Obama got elected. Thought overall he wasted eight years though. Couldn't have voted for either Trump or Hillary in 2016. Bemused but not surprised by Trump's victory. I tend to the view that Trump is a boorish jerk, who says things for effect. BUT...he's unpredictable, and when he threatens rogue states, they don't know whether he really will reduce their nation to Trinitite. It seems to be getting better results so far than Obama achieved in North Korea.

    But I have no vote, and it is for Americans alone to vote the President as they see fit. Albeit often by tiny margins.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:


    That is like us challenging for control of the Isle of Wight or Jersey, on a global scale it means next to nothing

    Rather a greater distance - the most distant ones they claim are 1700km from the mainland. It's about the same distance as the UK > Greenland, or to Africa.

    Then there's the small matter of how much of global trade goes through those waters......
    Greenland is part of Denmark of course
    Does Denmark claim all the water between Copenhagen and Nuuk as their exclusive economic zone?
    Even if it did it would not make it a global foreign policy superpower
    I don't thinkXi loses sleep over his place in the HYUFD global foreign policy superpower rankings. I do think this is significant:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-04/china-refrains-from-releasing-annual-military-spending-target

    Last we knew, China spent $160bn a year on the military, to the US 700bn. Still a lot of money, and probably not far off the US at all when you lay off for the difference in wages and allow for the excess profits of the US weapons industry. And China has 2m active service personnel as against the US 1.4m. I'd be inclined to take that seriously even if you don't.
    US Military Spending also include the Department of Veterans Affairs, which includes (among other things) healthcare to veterans. This makes "Defence Spending as a Percentage of GDP" a difficult thing to measure comparably.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,536
    It's just hot air from Jabba the Hutt.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew said:

    HYUFD said:


    That is like us challenging for control of the Isle of Wight or Jersey, on a global scale it means next to nothing

    Rather a greater distance - the most distant ones they claim are 1700km from the mainland. It's about the same distance as the UK > Greenland, or to Africa.

    Then there's the small matter of how much of global trade goes through those waters......
    Greenland is part of Denmark of course
    Does Denmark claim all the water between Copenhagen and Nuuk as their exclusive economic zone?
    Even if it did it would not make it a global foreign policy superpower
    I don't thinkXi loses sleep over his place in the HYUFD global foreign policy superpower rankings. I do think this is significant:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-04/china-refrains-from-releasing-annual-military-spending-target

    Last we knew, China spent $160bn a year on the military, to the US 700bn. Still a lot of money, and probably not far off the US at all when you lay off for the difference in wages and allow for the excess profits of the US weapons industry. And China has 2m active service personnel as against the US 1.4m. I'd be inclined to take that seriously even if you don't.
    Well nobody is going to invade China no but in the troubleshots and potential troubleshots of the world from the Middle East to the Baltic states China is nowhere.

    You cannot be a foreign policy superpower unless you are prepared to deploy forces and airpower overseas if necessary
    China does have a naval base in Djibouti, which is pretty much the Middle East.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,241
    When I got up this morning I wondered how long it would take before I heard someone say 'The Big Thaw'. ITV News have come up trumps in the weather cliché department.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,547
    viewcode said:

    I would urge Conservatives on here to read this thread:

    I have been saying this for years. The UK (all sides of the political spectrum, not just Con) live in a bubble where certain elements of space (eg Ireland) or the past (eg the Irish wars, the Highland Clearances) are wilfully ignored in favour of comforting fantasies.

    Not just our own history, but the realities and historical context of our nearest neighbours.

    We are, by geography and culture, very insular and we hold our to our nostalgic comfort blanket for dear life, both on the left (NHS envy of the world!) and the right (special relationship etc etc).

    We also have this demented “us” against “them” mentality, which one sees on this board every day in the instinctive hostility not just the EU, but to Merkel, Macron, the Spanish state (vis a vis Catalonia) etc etc.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,162

    viewcode said:

    I would urge Conservatives on here to read this thread:

    I have been saying this for years. The UK (all sides of the political spectrum, not just Con) live in a bubble where certain elements of space (eg Ireland) or the past (eg the Irish wars, the Highland Clearances) are wilfully ignored in favour of comforting fantasies.

    Not just our own history, but the realities and historical context of our nearest neighbours.

    We are, by geography and culture, very insular and we hold our to our nostalgic comfort blanket for dear life, both on the left (NHS envy of the world!) and the right (special relationship etc etc).

    We also have this demented “us” against “them” mentality, which one sees on this board every day in the instinctive hostility not just the EU, but to Merkel, Macron, the Spanish state (vis a vis Catalonia) etc etc.
    I know. It's a bit discouraging, tbh. What do you do when the people in charge value falsehoods over truths? Cos I'm shit out of ideas.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Walker, the UK is no different to other places. Every country in the world has itself as the centre of a map.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,114

    Mr. Walker, the UK is no different to other places. Every country in the world has itself as the centre of a map.

    Except where it is a globe map.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,547

    Mr. Walker, the UK is no different to other places. Every country in the world has itself as the centre of a map.

    No, they don’t.
    I’d add the US and France to the list.
    Tends to be a post-imperial problem.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,584
    Sky News felt the need to blur out the Italian girl's breasts. I don't know why. They show lots of tits everyday during the political coverage.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,645

    Mr. Walker, the UK is no different to other places. Every country in the world has itself as the centre of a map.

    No, they don’t.
    I’d add the US and France to the list.
    Tends to be a post-imperial problem.
    You may like this map :)

    http://www.pottonandburton.co.nz/store/kiwi-upside-down-map
This discussion has been closed.