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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Blimey! Just been looking at the promises made by LN FI and 5 Star.
    Cut retirement age, double pensions and a miimum income of 1000 Euro a month amongst others.
    Cue outrage from those who thought the Labour Manifesto was extreme.

    There is clearly a significant proportion of the population that isn't willing to accept reality. Not sure how long that will remain feasible as move more and more to AI / high tech / globalized world, I always fear Italy becoming another Greece.
    If we move more and more to AI/high tech/globalized world such populist policies will become the norm in most developed countries as voters have nothing to lose, if for most people beyond those with the highest tech skills and most creativity the jobs on offer are insecure and temporary what do they have to lose from seeking a guaranteed minimum universal income whether in employment or not?
    But unlike the UK, Italy remains highly unreformed, so can least afford to entertain the idea of supporting something like UBI. France under Macron has recognized they have to get their shit together.
    Even in France the likes of Hamon and Melenchon have been sympathetic to a UBI and it is being pioneered in Finland by the centre right government. Unless and until automation sees only a minority in permanent paid employment it is unlikely to take off on a wide scale but if that does become the case it will likely be inevitable, probably funded by a robot tax or something similar
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    Foxy said:
    5 Star seek to take votes from Left, Right and Centre. They are not so much a Populist Party, as anti-corruption and anti-business as usual.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Blimey! Just been looking at the promises made by LN FI and 5 Star.
    Cut retirement age, double pensions and a miimum income of 1000 Euro a month amongst others.
    Cue outrage from those who thought the Labour Manifesto was extreme.

    There is clearly a significant proportion of the population that isn't willing to accept reality. Not sure how long that will remain feasible as move more and more to AI / high tech / globalized world, I always fear Italy becoming another Greece.
    If we move more and more to AI/high tech/globalized world such populist policies will become the norm in most developed countries as voters have nothing to lose, if for most people beyond those with the highest tech skills and most creativity the jobs on offer are insecure and temporary what do they have to lose from seeking a guaranteed minimum universal income whether in employment or not?
    But unlike the UK, Italy remains highly unreformed, so can least afford to entertain the idea of supporting something like UBI. France under Macron has recognized they have to get their shit together.
    UBI may have to come though, for reasons you alluded to earlier. It is also not necessarily a Left issue. Milton Friedman was a proponent.
    I didn't say it was a right / left issue. My point was that in order to be in a position to be able to afford to offer something like that (which is hugely expensive) you need an economy that can support it in the future.

    The likes of the UK might be able to, due to large financial and high tech sector, and very flexible working conditions *. Italy can't.

    * Presuming luddite Corbyn doesn't get in and kill the city, halt self-driving train / car development etc etc etc.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    stjohn said:

    Where are Oscar’s Roger Tips?

    he made a few tips in the morning thread.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2018
    stjohn said:

    Where are Oscar’s Roger Tips?

    The only day of the year where one can say Rog is (more then likely) right...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2018
    Talking about AI / high tech future...totally O/T....the documentary on AlphaGO on Netflix is very interesting.

    A British company (alright a British company owned by Google) leading the world.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:
    5 Star seek to take votes from Left, Right and Centre. They are not so much a Populist Party, as anti-corruption and anti-business as usual.
    It does seem as if it is the left and right populists prospering and centre shrinking. Much like our election, and that worked out well so you can see why they wanted to copy it!

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/970424747866710017?s=19
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    Best links to follow the Italian results:

    Official results site
    http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

    or if you want a map:
    Corriere della sera
    http://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/camera.shtml


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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Senate count first.

    first 6 polling stations have been uploaded on Ministry website

    http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/senato/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniSI
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    Foxy said:
    Drastic reduction in business taxes - good to see them endorsing conservative policies
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Blimey! Just been looking at the promises made by LN FI and 5 Star.
    Cut retirement age, double pensions and a miimum income of 1000 Euro a month amongst others.
    Cue outrage from those who thought the Labour Manifesto was extreme.

    There is clearly a significant proportion of the population that isn't willing to accept reality. Not sure how long that will remain feasible as move more and more to AI / high tech / globalized world, I always fear Italy becoming another Greece.
    If we move more and more to AI/high tech/globalized world such populist policies will become the norm in most developed countries as voters have nothing to lose, if for most people beyond those with the highest tech skills and most creativity the jobs on offer are insecure and temporary what do they have to lose from seeking a guaranteed minimum universal income whether in employment or not?
    But unlike the UK, Italy remains highly unreformed, so can least afford to entertain the idea of supporting something like UBI. France under Macron has recognized they have to get their shit together.
    UBI may have to come though, for reasons you alluded to earlier. It is also not necessarily a Left issue. Milton Friedman was a proponent.
    I didn't say it was a right / left issue. My point was that in order to be in a position to be able to afford to offer something like that (which is hugely expensive) you need an economy that can support it in the future.

    The likes of the UK might be able to, due to large financial and high tech sector, and very flexible working conditions *. Italy can't.

    * Presuming luddite Corbyn doesn't get in and kill the city, halt self-driving train / car development etc etc etc.
    Sorry, some confusion here. Was replying (or intending to) to HYUFD.
    Your point is, however, well-made.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    Foxy said:

    stjohn said:

    Where are Oscar’s Roger Tips?

    he made a few tips in the morning thread.
    Thanks. I will have a look back.

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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,936
    Scott_P said:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cycling

    "The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."

    And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Do they update the exit poll as the real results come in? I think not, from previous elections.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531

    Foxy said:
    Drastic reduction in business taxes - good to see them endorsing conservative policies
    Though, as ever, it is easier to be a prophet condemning the rulers, than it is to rule:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/04/turin-five-star-movement-mayor-chiara-appendino
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.

    http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cycling

    "The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."

    And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
    I do wonder about the dark side of "marginal gains". Sky made a thing about not doing drugs (i.e. not cheating), which is fine but they also made a thing about gaining every advantage wherever they could - so it's hardly surprising if they've gamed the rules.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cycling

    "The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."

    And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
    Depressing.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited March 2018
    So far Berlusconi's centre right coalition looks to be in front on 44% with 5* on 32% and the centre left coalition on 20%

    www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/camera.shtml?refresh_ce-cp
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    AndyJS said:

    A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.

    http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

    It's a total of 25 votes.
    The first line mentioning 11 is the total of votes received by the candidates of thecentre-right coalition in the first past the post election. As can be seen in the final two lines, some people vote in the FPTP ("uninominale) but not the PR part ("proporzionale")
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,802

    Pulpstar said:

    Centro Desta block ahead on RAI's summed up exit poll

    Not by much

    difficult to call PM
    The commentary on RAI website speculating that Lega may outpoll Forza within the centre right block - tctc. Not sure whether that would open door to Salvini though, as other blocs would be needed for a majority.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    First projection for La7 (12% of the sampled polling stations)

    5 Stars 33.1

    PD 18.7

    Lega 17.3

    Forza Italia 14.1

    Brothers of Italy 4.2

    Free and Equal 3.3

    +Europa 2.6
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Centro Desta block ahead on RAI's summed up exit poll

    Not by much

    difficult to call PM
    The commentary on RAI website speculating that Lega may outpoll Forza within the centre right block - tctc. Not sure whether that would open door to Salvini though, as other blocs would be needed for a majority.
    If that is the case either Salvini or Di Maio would likely end up PM.

    So far 5* is largest party on 31%, then Lega on 24%, then PD on 17%, then FI on 15%

    http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI
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    It's stil very early results, only 0.1% counted for the Senate
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Theresa May was quite good on Marr this morning I thought.

    All of a sudden she's actually starting to look competent.... :open_mouth:
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    The first results are almost only from the North, it explains the Lega's big lead over Forza Italia at the moment
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    North of the M25 is going to get a tad busier...

    Five new garden towns could be built between Oxford and Cambridge bringing thousands of new homes

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5460799/Five-new-garden-towns-built-Oxford-Cambridge.html

    Do they need to house THAT many spies?
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,802
    edited March 2018

    AndyJS said:

    A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.

    http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

    It's a total of 25 votes.
    The first line mentioning 11 is the total of votes received by the candidates of thecentre-right coalition in the first past the post election. As can be seen in the final two lines, some people vote in the FPTP ("uninominale) but not the PR part ("proporzionale")
    A constituency vote counts for the PR section and vice versa. One can vote in either or both sections. The main difference in choice - if you vote constituency only for a bloc your vote is split between the parties in the bloc for the PR section, in proportion with what the PR voters in your bloc have done.

    You cannot vote for a different bloc in the constituency and PR sections, any such ballots are void. This means voting in the PR section only is identical in effect to voting in both sections.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    The first results are almost only from the North, it explains the Lega's big lead over Forza Italia at the moment

    If Italy was just the northern part it would be more like Switzerland - seems that applies to counting votes too.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:
    5 Star seek to take votes from Left, Right and Centre. They are not so much a Populist Party, as anti-corruption and anti-business as usual.
    It does seem as if it is the left and right populists prospering and centre shrinking. Much like our election, and that worked out well so you can see why they wanted to copy it!

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/970424747866710017?s=19

    Italy doesn’t have much history of electing left-wing governments, does it? The centre right and populist right (Berlusconi) have dominated for decades as far as I can tell. Politically speaking its probably the least understood of any of the major European countries from a British perspective - and that is saying something!!

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Scott_P said:
    Paul Johnson has already taken his knighthood off him?
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    Pro_Rata said:

    AndyJS said:

    A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.

    http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

    It's a total of 25 votes.
    The first line mentioning 11 is the total of votes received by the candidates of thecentre-right coalition in the first past the post election. As can be seen in the final two lines, some people vote in the FPTP ("uninominale) but not the PR part ("proporzionale")
    A constituency vote counts for the PR section and vice versa. One can vote in either or both sections. The main difference in choice - if you vote constituency only for a bloc your vote is split between the parties in the bloc for the PR section, in proportion with what the PR voters in your bloc have done.

    You cannot vote for a different bloc in the constituency and PR sections, any such ballots are void. This means voting in the PR section only is identical in effect to voting in both sections.
    I know, I was trying to explain the display of results in the Italian government site. I'm not sure everyone is very familiar with the intricacies of the Rosatellum.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    First projection for La7 (12% of the sampled polling stations)

    5 Stars 33.1

    PD 18.7

    Lega 17.3

    Forza Italia 14.1

    Brothers of Italy 4.2

    Free and Equal 3.3

    +Europa 2.6

    I note that the Brothers of Italy are actually led by a woman - Giorgia Meloni. So much for sisterhood!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    edited March 2018
    Well, looks like he's no longer one of those who thinks Democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others that have been tried.

    It may well be true, of course, that lack of democracy does make things easier and is certainly not impossible for the people, on the whole, to still benefit, but he may be missing part of the point.
    HYUFD said:
    Centre-right (FI-EPP, LN-ENF, Fdl-*, NcI-*): 225-265
    Centre-left (PD-S&D, I-*, +E-*, CP-*)

    God save us from the acronyms - at least our system mostly spares us that but for the basic types.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Second projection for La7 (40% of the sampled polling stations) for Senate

    5 Stars 33.6

    PD 18.3

    Lega 17.4

    Forza Italia 14.1

    Brothers of Italy 4.0

    Free and Equal 3.3

    +Europa 2.3
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Floater said:
    The centre left backing cultural issues like European integration and high immigration lost much of their working class base to populist extremists.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    Five Star have often claimed they will not go into coalition, but it seems the mathematically simplest majority is Five Star-Liga.

    Would be a weird Trumpite government, and certainly the Kremlin’s pick. Let’s see.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited March 2018

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:
    5 Star seek to take votes from Left, Right and Centre. They are not so much a Populist Party, as anti-corruption and anti-business as usual.
    It does seem as if it is the left and right populists prospering and centre shrinking. Much like our election, and that worked out well so you can see why they wanted to copy it!

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/970424747866710017?s=19

    Italy doesn’t have much history of electing left-wing governments, does it? The centre right and populist right (Berlusconi) have dominated for decades as far as I can tell. Politically speaking its probably the least understood of any of the major European countries from a British perspective - and that is saying something!!

    It has tended to alternate between centre left and Forza Italia led Berlusconi right since the end of the Christian Democrats in the early 1990s. It was PM Berlusconi in 1994 then the centre left Dini and Prodi, D'Alema and Amato then Berlusconi again then Prodi again then Berlusconi a third time then the technocratic Modi followed by the centre left Letta, Renzi and Gentilioni and now it looks like Berlusconi is back again, at least as Kingmaker if not actual PM
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    edited March 2018
    Elliot said:

    Floater said:
    The centre left backing cultural issues like European integration and high immigration lost much of their working class base to populist extremists.
    + conservatives, I suspect

    The irony of European social democracy is that it has driven, through a constant search for the next minority issue, it's natural base towards the right.
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    More than 120 K votes counted for the Senate (0.7% of polling stations)
    Centre-right 39.3
    M5S 30.4
    Centre-left 22.9
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    HYUFD said:

    So far Berlusconi's centre right coalition looks to be in front on 44% with 5* on 32% and the centre left coalition on 20%

    www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/camera.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

    Still early days, by the looks of it.
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    It is also pretty stupid to say Putin is not a populist. His whole thing is wrapping himself in the flag, promising to restore Russian greatness and demonising foreigners/the gays/America.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Mortimer said:

    Elliot said:

    Floater said:
    The centre left backing cultural issues like European integration and high immigration lost much of their working class base to populist extremists.
    + conservatives, I suspect

    The irony of European social democracy is that it has driven, through a constant search for the next minority issue, it's natural base towards the right.
    I could never understand how my fellow left wingers thought it a good idea to embrace identity politics. Encouraging working class people to divide themselves up into different identities rather than emphasising their commonality is nuts from an electoral coalition perspective.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Five Star have often claimed they will not go into coalition, but it seems the mathematically simplest majority is Five Star-Liga.

    Would be a weird Trumpite government, and certainly the Kremlin’s pick. Let’s see.

    And how much grief would that cause in Brussels?
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,802

    Pro_Rata said:

    AndyJS said:

    A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.

    http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

    It's a total of 25 votes.
    The first line mentioning 11 is the total of votes received by the candidates of thecentre-right coalition in the first past the post election. As can be seen in the final two lines, some people vote in the FPTP ("uninominale) but not the PR part ("proporzionale")
    A constituency vote counts for the PR section and vice versa. One can vote in either or both sections. The main difference in choice - if you vote constituency only for a bloc your vote is split between the parties in the bloc for the PR section, in proportion with what the PR voters in your bloc have done.

    You cannot vote for a different bloc in the constituency and PR sections, any such ballots are void. This means voting in the PR section only is identical in effect to voting in both sections.
    I know, I was trying to explain the display of results in the Italian government site. I'm not sure everyone is very familiar with the intricacies of the Rosatellum.
    I took a while to get my head round it, so did not pass up the opportunity to share. If you fancy explaining the various thresholds and how they interact with one another, be my guest though as my mind boggled a bit at that. Perhaps a slight seat boost to PD if some of their bloc partners fall below 1% but I wouldn't swear to that?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Elliot said:

    Floater said:
    The centre left backing cultural issues like European integration and high immigration lost much of their working class base to populist extremists.
    Ironically the only traditional centre left party in Europe still polling well is the British Labour Party, ironically because its leader despite being a traditional socialist backs leaving the EU and ending free movement.

    While the only centre left leader in power after tonight of the main European nations (France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain) will be Macron in France who is basically more Blairite, Cleggite economic centrist than he is social democrat.

    So it seems social democracy is dead in Europe for the moment, either the left goes full leftwing populist like Corbyn and Melenchon or centrist liberal like Macron and Rivera in Spain.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,631
    edited March 2018
    kle4 said:


    Centre-right (FI-EPP, LN-ENF, Fdl-*, NcI-*): 225-265
    Centre-left (PD-S&D, I-*, +E-*, CP-*)

    God save us from the acronyms - at least our system mostly spares us that but for the basic types.

    The bits before the "-" refer to the national party/list, the bits after the "-" refer to the European political party (or group in the European Parliament, there's an overlap) to which the national party/list is affiliated. Prior to Brexit you could describe UK elections in the same way, but it never caught on (it did in Ireland).

    Incidentally, does anybody know if the Labour Party will retain its membership of the Party of European Socialists post-Brexit?
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited March 2018

    Five Star have often claimed they will not go into coalition, but it seems the mathematically simplest majority is Five Star-Liga.

    Would be a weird Trumpite government, and certainly the Kremlin’s pick. Let’s see.

    A Lega Nord Five star coalition would have a majority and be vaguely intellectually coherent. It would be the EUs worst nightmare though.

    5 star continue to ally with UKIP in Brussels - although for 48 hours after the EU referendum Guy Verhofstadt persuaded Grillo to join the ALDE Lib Dem group. However the Liberal MEPs were not happy so this collapsed and they went back to the EFDD and UKIP.

    Seems 5 star is anyone's - if the price is right.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    God save us from the acronyms - at least our system mostly spares us that but for the basic types.

    The bits before the "-" refer to the national party/list, the bits after the "-" refer to the European political party (or group in the European Parliament, there's an overlap) to which the national party/list is affiliated. Prior to Brexit you could describe UK elections in the same way, but it never caught on (it did in Ireland).
    I thought EPP was unlikely to be a coincidence. Makes it better I suppose.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2018
    Rai and Mediaset first projections (low coverage, 5-7%)

    PD a bit better but still below 20% (Mediaset's projection have them just above it)

    Lega a bit worse but still above FI
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    edited March 2018
    Reads as lacking coherency even more than most parties or movements. Unpredictable, but then Italian politics looks like that generally from outside as viewed by a casual, infrequent observer.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited March 2018
    Elliot said:

    It is also pretty stupid to say Putin is not a populist. His whole thing is wrapping himself in the flag, promising to restore Russian greatness and demonising foreigners/the gays/America.

    Russians like strong leaders - it suits their national psyche. Gorbachev was hated - because he was seen as weak and a sell out.

    Putin is a populist - but also popular with the majority of Russians.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    The '10 times better' party intrigues me. Wiki says their slogan is that Italy deserves to be 10 times better, so I suppose the name is not them saying they are 10 times better than any other party.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    I do wonder about the dark side of "marginal gains". Sky made a thing about not doing drugs (i.e. not cheating) ......

    Once upon a time, so did Lance Armstrong.

    Pretty much all elite sport is the same, but makes less attempt to catch the cheats than cycling does.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321
    HYUFD said:

    Elliot said:

    Floater said:
    The centre left backing cultural issues like European integration and high immigration lost much of their working class base to populist extremists.
    Ironically the only traditional centre left party in Europe still polling well is the British Labour Party, ironically because its leader despite being a traditional socialist backs leaving the EU and ending free movement.

    While the only centre left leader in power after tonight of the main European nations (France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain) will be Macron in France who is basically more Blairite, Cleggite economic centrist than he is social democrat.

    So it seems social democracy is dead in Europe for the moment, either the left goes full leftwing populist like Corbyn and Melenchon or centrist liberal like Macron and Rivera in Spain.
    TThat's a bit generalised - the Danish and Finnish social democrat parties are both polling well (in Denmark the anti-immigrant People's Pary is losing ground, and in Finland the True Finns have split and left the government). Generally true, though.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Elliot said:

    Floater said:
    The centre left backing cultural issues like European integration and high immigration lost much of their working class base to populist extremists.
    They were also planning to change Italian citizenship laws to award citizenship to anyone born in Italy as opposed to needing to have an Italian citizen as a parent to be a Citizen. That is unlikely to have gone down well with working class voters.
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    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    AndyJS said:

    A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.

    http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

    s.
    I know, I was trying to explain the display of results in the Italian government site. I'm not sure everyone is very familiar with the intricacies of the Rosatellum.
    I took a while to get my head round it, so did not pass up the opportunity to share. If you fancy explaining the various thresholds and how they interact with one another, be my guest though as my mind boggled a bit at that. Perhaps a slight seat boost to PD if some of their bloc partners fall below 1% but I wouldn't swear to that?
    A boost seat for PD would be to have partners over 1% (thus counting for the total vote of coalitions) but under 3% (threshold to get PR seats).
  • Options
    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2018
    Projection for Mediaset (50% coverage of sampled polling stations) for Senate

    Pd: 18,7%
    +Europa: 2,4%
    FI: 14,2%
    Lega: 16,0%
    FdI: 4%
    NcI: 1,2%
    M5S: 32,8%
    LeU: 3,6%

    Projection for Rai (coverage 16%) for SSenate

    Pd: 19,1%
    +Europa: 2,5%
    Altri Csx: 1,4%
    FI: 14,5%
    Lega: 16,0%
    FdI: 4,2%
    NcI: 1,3%
    M5S: 32,2%
    LeU: 3,5%
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    Elliot said:

    Floater said:
    The centre left backing cultural issues like European integration and high immigration lost much of their working class base to populist extremists.
    Ironically the only traditional centre left party in Europe still polling well is the British Labour Party, ironically because its leader despite being a traditional socialist backs leaving the EU and ending free movement.

    While the only centre left leader in power after tonight of the main European nations (France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain) will be Macron in France who is basically more Blairite, Cleggite economic centrist than he is social democrat.

    So it seems social democracy is dead in Europe for the moment, either the left goes full leftwing populist like Corbyn and Melenchon or centrist liberal like Macron and Rivera in Spain.
    TThat's a bit generalised - the Danish and Finnish social democrat parties are both polling well (in Denmark the anti-immigrant People's Pary is losing ground, and in Finland the True Finns have split and left the government). Generally true, though.
    Even in Denmark the Social Democrats are only polling just under 29% and in Finland just 20% (a fraction behind the governing centre right KOK)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_parliamentary_election,_2019

    If the best the social democrats can do in Europe is under a third of the vote it does not inspire a great deal of confidence in the future of social democracy on the continent
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,802

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    AndyJS said:

    A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.

    http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

    s.
    I know, I was trying to explain the display of results in the Italian government site. I'm not sure everyone is very familiar with the intricacies of the Rosatellum.
    I took a while to get my head round it, so did not pass up the opportunity to share. If you fancy explaining the various thresholds and how they interact with one another, be my guest though as my mind boggled a bit at that. Perhaps a slight seat boost to PD if some of their bloc partners fall below 1% but I wouldn't swear to that?
    A boost seat for PD would be to have partners over 1% (thus counting for the total vote of coalitions) but under 3% (threshold to get PR seats).
    Thanks.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    Hey ho....its off to (trade) war we go....

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/970451373681790978
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    HYUFD said:
    The EU under threat from West, South and East
  • Options
    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    La7 projection for Senate (60% coverage)

    Centre right 37.4
    5 Stars 32.3
    Centre left 22.9 (PD up at 18.9%)
    Free and Equal 3.3%


  • Options
    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    I’ve just had £9 on Daniel Day Lewis to win Best Actor in the Oscars at average odd approx 75/1. Oldman should win it for his terrific Churchill portrayal but a lot of credit is due to the make up and his odd are ridiculous. I believe this is DDL’s swan song.
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    RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359

    Hey ho....its off to (trade) war we go....

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/970451373681790978

    Good for AfD, bad for Germany.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,631
    stjohn said:

    I’ve just had £9 on Daniel Day Lewis to win Best Actor in the Oscars at average odd approx 75/1. Oldman should win it for his terrific Churchill portrayal but a lot of credit is due to the make up and his odd are ridiculous. I believe this is DDL’s swan song.

    Good luck: it's certainly value.
  • Options

    La7 projection for Senate (60% coverage)

    Centre right 37.4
    5 Stars 32.3
    Centre left 22.9 (PD up at 18.9%)
    Free and Equal 3.3%


    The M5S seems to be doing incredibly well in the South. They will win a lot of uninominal seats there/
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    Hey ho....its off to (trade) war we go....

    Unbelievably, Trump thinks VAT is a protectionist measure against the US.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    stjohn said:

    I’ve just had £9 on Daniel Day Lewis to win Best Actor in the Oscars at average odd approx 75/1. Oldman should win it for his terrific Churchill portrayal but a lot of credit is due to the make up and his odd are ridiculous. I believe this is DDL’s swan song.

    Not that it did him any good, but the Good Lady Wifi voted for DDL at the BAFTAs......
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,157
    stjohn said:

    I’ve just had £9 on Daniel Day Lewis to win Best Actor in the Oscars at average odd approx 75/1. Oldman should win it for his terrific Churchill portrayal but a lot of credit is due to the make up and his odd are ridiculous. I believe this is DDL’s swan song.

    I hope Lesley Manville wins Best Supporting Actress. She’s terrific in everything she does.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    HYUFD said:
    I think that tweet is a bit simplistic, tbh.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    stjohn said:

    I’ve just had £9 on Daniel Day Lewis to win Best Actor in the Oscars at average odd approx 75/1. Oldman should win it for his terrific Churchill portrayal but a lot of credit is due to the make up and his odd are ridiculous. I believe this is DDL’s swan song.

    Get Out as Best Picture might be worth a dabble too.....
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,157
    Rhubarb said:

    Hey ho....its off to (trade) war we go....

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/970451373681790978

    Good for AfD, bad for Germany.
    Bad for all of us if he starts a trade war. Stupid man.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Hey ho....its off to (trade) war we go....

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/970451373681790978

    Lock her him up, Lock her him up....
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Cyclefree said:

    stjohn said:

    I’ve just had £9 on Daniel Day Lewis to win Best Actor in the Oscars at average odd approx 75/1. Oldman should win it for his terrific Churchill portrayal but a lot of credit is due to the make up and his odd are ridiculous. I believe this is DDL’s swan song.

    I hope Lesley Manville wins Best Supporting Actress. She’s terrific in everything she does.
    Good Lady Wifi voted for her too - again, it did no good! Can't see past Allison Janney though.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,982
    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cycling

    "The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."

    And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
    It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.

    I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.

    Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I think that tweet is a bit simplistic, tbh.
    Very simplistic. I don't think they can be lumped together like this, as if far-left and far-right parties were being combined.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Elliot said:

    Floater said:
    The centre left backing cultural issues like European integration and high immigration lost much of their working class base to populist extremists.
    Ironically the only traditional centre left party in Europe still polling well is the British Labour Party, ironically because its leader despite being a traditional socialist backs leaving the EU and ending free movement.

    While the only centre left leader in power after tonight of the main European nations (France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain) will be Macron in France who is basically more Blairite, Cleggite economic centrist than he is social democrat.

    So it seems social democracy is dead in Europe for the moment, either the left goes full leftwing populist like Corbyn and Melenchon or centrist liberal like Macron and Rivera in Spain.
    TThat's a bit generalised - the Danish and Finnish social democrat parties are both polling well (in Denmark the anti-immigrant People's Pary is losing ground, and in Finland the True Finns have split and left the government). Generally true, though.
    Even in Denmark the Social Democrats are only polling just under 29% and in Finland just 20% (a fraction behind the governing centre right KOK)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_parliamentary_election,_2019

    If the best the social democrats can do in Europe is under a third of the vote it does not inspire a great deal of confidence in the future of social democracy on the continent
    These things tend to go in waves. By 2025 things could easily have gone full circle.

    Free trade and free movement will not stop under more right-leaning governments, so if that's what some people care about, their drift to the right will be short-lived.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2018
    What are the chances of Matteo Salvini becoming prime minister with the results so far?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Dura_Ace said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cycling

    "The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."

    And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
    It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.

    I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.

    Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.
    Icarus is an interesting documentary.
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    On the generally poor performance of left wing parties in Europe:

    This is why I believed despite all the negative polling that Corbyn would perform better than a more centrist Labour candidate, I just didn't think that had enough popular appeal left in the country.

    Not sure the pro Brexit aspect alone really explains it.
  • Options
    Dura_Ace said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cycling

    "The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."

    And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
    It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.

    I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.

    Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.
    The richest teams have access to the most sophisticate (and most difficult to unmask) methods of cheating. It has always been the case.

    It is still quite unfair to think of cycling as the only doping-plagued sport. For example Italian and Spanish football teams have been spared by very conciliatory local judges over the years...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited March 2018
    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Elliot said:

    Floater said:
    The centre left backing cultural issues like European integration and high immigration lost much of their working class base to populist extremists.
    Ironically the only traditional centre left party in Europe still polling well is the British Labour Party, ironically because its leader despite being a traditional socialist backs leaving the EU and ending free movement.

    While the only centre left leader in power after tonight of the main European nations (France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain) will be Macron in France who is basically more Blairite, Cleggite economic centrist than he is social democrat.

    So it seems social democracy is dead in Europe for the moment, either the left goes full leftwing populist like Corbyn and Melenchon or centrist liberal like Macron and Rivera in Spain.
    TThat's a bit generalised - the Danish and Finnish social democrat parties are both polling well (in Denmark the anti-immigrant People's Pary is losing ground, and in Finland the True Finns have split and left the government). Generally true, though.
    Even in Denmark the Social Democrats are only polling just under 29% and in Finland just 20% (a fraction behind the governing centre right KOK)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_parliamentary_election,_2019

    If the best the social democrats can do in Europe is under a third of the vote it does not inspire a great deal of confidence in the future of social democracy on the continent
    These things tend to go in waves. By 2025 things could easily have gone full circle.

    Free trade and free movement will not stop under more right-leaning governments, so if that's what some people care about, their drift to the right will be short-lived.
    It won't stop completely but it will reduce but even the alternative to right wing populism is either liberal centrists like Macron and Rivera or populist socialists like Corbyn and Melenchon not social democrats as such
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    edited March 2018

    Dura_Ace said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cycling

    "The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."

    And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
    It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.

    I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.

    Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.
    Icarus is an interesting documentary.
    Glad you enjoyed it. Been banging on about it for weeks now! (Although it is spelt Ikarus...)

    EDIT: Well it was on the screener I watched! But not anywhere else it seems.... IMDB has it as Icarus.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Dura_Ace said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cycling

    "The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."

    And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
    It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.

    I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.

    Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.
    Icarus is an interesting documentary.
    Glad you enjoyed it. Been banging on about it for weeks now! (Although it is spelt Ikarus...)

    EDIT: Well it was on the screener I watched! But not anywhere else it seems.... IMDB has it as Icarus.
    What happens if you buy it off some dodgy Chinese ebay seller ;-)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Dura_Ace said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cycling

    "The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."

    And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
    It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.

    I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.

    Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.
    Icarus is an interesting documentary.
    Glad you enjoyed it. Been banging on about it for weeks now! (Although it is spelt Ikarus...)

    EDIT: Well it was on the screener I watched! But not anywhere else it seems.... IMDB has it as Icarus.
    What happens if you buy it off some dodgy Chinese ebay seller ;-)
    Or get sent it as a BAFTA screener!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Dura_Ace said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_P said:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cycling

    "The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."

    And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
    It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.

    I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.

    Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.
    Icarus is an interesting documentary.
    Glad you enjoyed it. Been banging on about it for weeks now! (Although it is spelt Ikarus...)

    EDIT: Well it was on the screener I watched! But not anywhere else it seems.... IMDB has it as Icarus.
    What happens if you buy it off some dodgy Chinese ebay seller ;-)
    Or get sent it as a BAFTA screener!
    I know, just yanking your chain.
  • Options
    http://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/senato.shtml

    The map is starting to get colors.
    Blue in the North, yellow in the South, not much red...
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited March 2018
    AndyJS said:

    What are the chances of Matteo Salvini becoming prime minister with the results so far?

    Forza Italia and Lega have agreed that which ever party gets most votes will nominate the centre right's candidate for PM. At present Lega is ahead - by 4 per cent on the latest tally - so if that remains the case Salvini would presumably be the preferred candidate.

    So quite possible - but the centre right doesn't have a majority so would presumably need the support of 5 star or at least their abstention.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914

    On the generally poor performance of left wing parties in Europe:

    This is why I believed despite all the negative polling that Corbyn would perform better than a more centrist Labour candidate, I just didn't think that had enough popular appeal left in the country.

    Not sure the pro Brexit aspect alone really explains it.

    It would be interesting to see how the Labour coalition would break down in terms of support were the UK to have a PR system. In Spain, for example, PSOE and Podemos combined have a level of support similar to Labour's here. A couple of years ago, Podemos was outpolling PSOE, but now that has been reversed. My guess is that you might see a similar dynamic in the UK - but until we get a voting system that actually gives people a positive reason to vote for parties we are not going to know.

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    brendan16 said:

    AndyJS said:

    What are the chances of Matteo Salvini becoming prime minister with the results so far?

    Forza Italia and Lega have agreed that which ever party gets most votes will nominate the centre right's candidate for PM. At present Lega is ahead so in that case Salvini would presumably be the preferred candidate.

    So quite possible - but the centre right doesn't have a majority so would presumably need the support of 5 star or at least their abstention.
    Thanks.
  • Options
    brendan16 said:

    AndyJS said:

    What are the chances of Matteo Salvini becoming prime minister with the results so far?

    Forza Italia and Lega have agreed that which ever party gets most votes will nominate the centre right's candidate for PM. At present Lega is ahead - by 4 per cent on the latest tally - so if that remains the case Salvini would presumably be the preferred candidate.

    So quite possible - but the centre right doesn't have a majority so would presumably need the support of 5 star or at least their abstention.
    The support of M5S to a PM form the Lega would be extremely unpopular in the South where they had their best results and probably almost all their MPs in FPTP seats.
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840



    It would be interesting to see how the Labour coalition would break down in terms of support were the UK to have a PR system. In Spain, for example, PSOE and Podemos combined have a level of support similar to Labour's here. A couple of years ago, Podemos was outpolling PSOE, but now that has been reversed. My guess is that you might see a similar dynamic in the UK - but until we get a voting system that actually gives people a positive reason to vote for parties we are not going to know.

    Yeah I can agree with that, it probably plays a small part in how bitter our politics has become. It is one thing to lose an election but to feel like your views don't even get a go is incredibly dispiriting.

    I think it is also what hit the BBC as well, with them trying to balance things between parties you wouldn't end up with many Brexit advocates because, especially pre referendum, only UKIP really fully supported it and some Conservatives, unless the thing was specifically a Brexit debate where they generally do try to even things up but in general debates which include Brexit it can end up not well represented as they try to balance for other things.

    Similarly for a while with Corbyn if you just had one Labour MP appearing it could well be someone critical of Corbyn, add in other guests mainly from other parties then who generally weren't big fans of Corbyn either. Or if you just had pundits discussing events/news they may have a Pro Labour panelist but that person could quite likely be someone anti Corbyn leaving a discussion where they are all have an interest in attacking Corbyn and not defending him.

    This isn't to say any kind of political show should have a perfectly even representation of pro and anti Corbyn or Brexit but it is probably what led to a lot of people getting annoyed, I found myself watching less political stuff as a result. Happy to see my views criticised and opposing facts offered but it is nice to at least see someone also defending those views and offering the alternative/counter argument, otherwise at best you tune out at worst you get annoyed.
This discussion has been closed.