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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a second referendum Remain should demand that all

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  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Sandpit said:

    BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/

    Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,970
    Mr. Z, hmm, I was assuming you'd just get the readings then let the probe melt :p

    Mr. Sandpit, it always was a wretched practice. Bit surprised that Akroyd got done for it, to be honest.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,579
    DavidL said:

    Update on Scottish newspaper circulation:

    https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/970429944386981889

    Outsold by the Guardian? In Scotland? The end is truly nigh.
    And less than 10% of the Daily Mail....the mortification.....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903

    Mr. Pulpstar, that sun speed stat is weird. Any idea of the reason behind it?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=132&v=LHvR1fRTW8g
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,917
    kjohnw said:

    CD13 said:


    Why would anyone believe a word the Remain politicians say?. They have a track record of lying,. or should we say being economical with the truth? Shouting louder doesn't make it more convincing.

    I work on the assumption that politicians routinely. What I do dislike is when they tell preposterous lies which insult my intelligence. By comparison the £350 million per week which could be available to the NHS is the truth, but not the whole truth. A minor improvement on the wholesale deceit for years.

    We were going to have all the benefits of being in the EU with none of the downsides, Leave told us. On Friday, Theresa May confirmed that would not be the case. The leaders of the Leave campaign were either barefaced liars or spectacularly ill-informed. You can decide which it is. But neither is a great look.

    In exactly the same way that we were going to be able to keep a special status and nothing at all would change with the EU in spite of the fact everyone knew the direction of travel was for ever closer political union.

    There is no question of the Remain campaign being ill informed. They were just bare faced liars. A habit they continue to this day.

    But Remain lost. It's the lies and the spectacular ignorance of the Leave leadership that actually matter now.

    So Remain's lies can be whitewashed, can they? Because they were such shit lies they lost the vote? Interesting.

    Well at least you acknowledge the lies. You might want to have a word with some of the Remainers posting here about that. They seem to think their campaign was whiter than white.

    Yep - the referendum campaign was almost entirely characterised by the wealthy, privileged right wingers who fronted the Leave and Remain campaigns telling lies to the electorate.

    oh yes of course left wing remainers never lied, they are such a beacon of light!

    They were hardly visible. It was Cameron and Osborne on one side, Gove and Johnson on the other, with Nigel Farage thrown in on top.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,579

    Except....

    Hammond is going to spend the extra cash he has - and stand up in his Statement and say

    "By 2022, this Govt. will have increased spending on the NHS by £350m a week from that which we inherited from Labour". Or maybe if he gets his arm bent up his back, "Since 2015...."

    Except he will not say because the Brexiteers dare not let him say that. The NHS gets the EU £350 million per week without the need to leave the EU?
    It would be by 2022.....after we'd left.......
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    CD13 said:


    Why would anyone believe a word the Remain politicians say?. They have a track record of lying,. or should we say being economical with the truth? Shouting louder doesn't make it more convincing.

    I work on the assumption that politicians routinely. What I do dislike is when they tell preposterous lies which insult my intelligence. By comparison the £350 million per week which could be available to the NHS is the truth, but not the whole truth. A minor improvement on the wholesale deceit for years.

    We were going to have all the benefits of being in the EU with none of the downsides, Leave told us. On Friday, Theresa May confirmed that would not be the case. The leaders of the Leave campaign were either barefaced liars or spectacularly ill-informed. You can decide which it is. But neither is a great look.

    In exactly the same way that we were going to be able to keep a special status and nothing at all would change with the EU in spite of the fact everyone knew the direction of travel was for ever closer political union.

    There is no question of the Remain campaign being ill informed. They were just bare faced liars. A habit they continue to this day.
    £350m/wk ?
    Except....

    Hammond is going to spend the extra cash he has - and stand up in his Statement and say

    "By 2022, this Govt. will have increased spending on the NHS by £350m a week from that which we inherited from Labour". Or maybe if he gets his arm bent up his back, "Since 2015...."

    Boris and The Moggster back in lock-step with May and Hammond. Everyone can claim how they did their bit in the Great Brexit War. Then on with governing.
    It's too easy a target not to miss, what's another 18 billion (3% total govt spending) between friends...in any case health spending is forecast to grow at 5 billion a year.....but then again, with old tin ear...
    What makes this especially easy for the Tories is that the extra money will come from borrowing, but they will be borrowing a lot less than Labour, so Labour can't point this out.
  • Options

    Update on Scottish newspaper circulation:

    https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/970429944386981889

    For a country that's supposed to be quite left wing, I'm surprised how badly the Guardian does in Scotland
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,136

    Sandpit said:

    BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/

    Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
    We went through all this in the IT industry. I'm not a fan of the BBC's administration, but this doesn't seem to be something you can lay at their door directly.

    I doubt they had substitutability clauses in the contracts (for obvious reasons) and so any accountant the presenters used to set up their company, *should* have told them they were liable under IR35, and hence should've been paying their full whack of tax and NI, not just dividend taxes.

    So they should be going after their accountants, not the BBC.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    Pulpstar said:

    CD13 said:


    We were going to have all the benefits of being in the EU with none of the downsides, Leave told us. On Friday, Theresa May confirmed that would not be the case. The leaders of the Leave campaign were either barefaced liars or spectacularly ill-informed. You can decide which it is. But neither is a great look.

    In exactly the same way that we were going to be able to keep a special status and nothing at all would change with the EU in spite of the fact everyone knew the direction of travel was for ever closer political union.

    There is no question of the Remain campaign being ill informed. They were just bare faced liars. A habit they continue to this day.
    Who was telling the truth about Northern Ireland?
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/743054573716295681
    Well certainly not Cameron since it will not happen - unfortunately of course since I want a united Ireland.
    So you’re predicting the world’s first customs border with no infrastructure and no checks at all? Now that’s magic.
    I think the whole "hard border" is being blown up out of all proportion by the remain side.

    a) Noone in a personal vehicle is going to be checked.
    b) Farmers and other small traders will generally be below a business threshold. Those that aren't, and need to make frequent crossings will be able to register their vehicles in a UK/Eire customs exclusion database.
    c) I doubt severely there'll be any physical customs posts on the border. At the most, random checks on lorries outwith the schemes could be performed. Though at present the UK and Ireland have differing duty rates for alcohol, so the same infrastructure used for enforcement of that particular issue could be used to check any customs compliance.

    A transition period for the implementation of the electronic systems will be needed but it is in practice going to just about be the world's softest customs border.
    Indeed, with willingness from all sides to make it work it would be simple technologically to do. The big IF is that willingness to make it work.

    Companies moving goods wholesale will fill in whatever forms are required anyway, the odd white van might be checked to make sure it’s not full of iPhones or whiskey, private cars would probably only be stopped on an intelligence basis, and even then some distance from the actual border. The only customs infrastructure would be a few ANPR cameras, which are probably there now anyway.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,280
    glw said:

    If there was another referendum on EU membership, Brexiteers are three points ahead of Remainers, almost the same as the 2016 result.
    The message from voters to Mrs May in our poll is: “Get on with it.”

    In my experience in the "real world" Brexit is barely a topic of conversation, even if it is the only thing the media and politicians talk about now. It does not suprise me that people want the goverment to "get on with it", as I've said myself recently.
    Theresa May is a politician, of course, but within the constraints of that broad caveat, she largely means what she says:

    "Brexit means Brexit" - she will leave the SM and CU and take back
    control of money, borders and laws. Yes, she is doing all of that. Everything is being brought back to Westminster on first principles. She might decide to then trade a bit of that for a good deal, but it will be done from the UK's absolute sovereignty as a starting point. She isn't doing a George Osborne type BINO. She won't betray the vote.

    Red, White and Blue Brexit - this is a bespoke British deal, not an off-the-shelf deal.

    Further, much of this stuff will have been trailed not only in cabinet but also with the civil service and EU negotiators behind the scenes, so I think (media drama and political drama aside) a lot of it will fly. We saw that with the practical approach to the Phase 1 divorce.

    I expect a HofTerms to be agreed at either the October European Council, or possibly December if there are some late dramas, but with it being ratified fairly swiftly in the first 3 months of 2019.

    I expect that it will pass the HoC/HoL too. I'm not sure Corbyn will be able to whip all Labour MPs to bring HMG down over it, and Tory rebels should be limited.

    I think almost all Tories want to bank this, and move on the fight to tackling Corbyn at his roots.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Mr. Z, hmm, I was assuming you'd just get the readings then let the probe melt :p

    Mr. Sandpit, it always was a wretched practice. Bit surprised that Akroyd got done for it, to be honest.

    No, you misunderstand. Going to Alpha Centauri = speed up to halfway point, then brake to lose the velocity you have built up. Getting from earth to sun is an exercise in braking from the word go, because we already have the velocity of being in orbit.

    (Sources: Niven, Integral Trees; Pohl, Gateway, in case of any query about my expertise).
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,971

    kjohnw said:

    CD13 said:


    Why would anyone believe a word the Remain politicians say?. They have a track record of lying,. or should we say being economical with the truth? Shouting louder doesn't make it more convincing.

    I work on the assumption that politicians routinely. What I do dislike is when they tell preposterous lies which insult my intelligence. By comparison the £350 million per week which could be available to the NHS is the truth, but not the whole truth. A minor improvement on the wholesale deceit for years.

    We were going to have all the benefits of being in the EU with none of the downsides, Leave told us. On Friday, Theresa May confirmed that would not be the case. The leaders of the Leave campaign were either barefaced liars or spectacularly ill-informed. You can decide which it is. But neither is a great look.

    In exactly the same way that we were going to be able to keep a special status and nothing at all would change with the EU in spite of the fact everyone knew the direction of travel was for ever closer political union.

    There is no question of the Remain campaign being ill informed. They were just bare faced liars. A habit they continue to this day.

    But Remain lost. It's the lies and the spectacular ignorance of the Leave leadership that actually matter now.

    So Remain's lies can be whitewashed, can they? Because they were such shit lies they lost the vote? Interesting.

    Well at least you acknowledge the lies. You might want to have a word with some of the Remainers posting here about that. They seem to think their campaign was whiter than white.

    Yep - the referendum campaign was almost entirely characterised by the wealthy, privileged right wingers who fronted the Leave and Remain campaigns telling lies to the electorate.

    oh yes of course left wing remainers never lied, they are such a beacon of light!

    They were hardly visible. It was Cameron and Osborne on one side, Gove and Johnson on the other, with Nigel Farage thrown in on top.
    *thrown up on top.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    mwadams said:

    Sandpit said:

    BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/

    Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
    We went through all this in the IT industry. I'm not a fan of the BBC's administration, but this doesn't seem to be something you can lay at their door directly.

    I doubt they had substitutability clauses in the contracts (for obvious reasons) and so any accountant the presenters used to set up their company, *should* have told them they were liable under IR35, and hence should've been paying their full whack of tax and NI, not just dividend taxes.

    So they should be going after their accountants, not the BBC.
    I disagree. The Beeb is hardly some stupid manual worker which relies on their accountant. They knew the terms of agreement between themselves and the workers, and they no doubt offered the contracts on the basis they would be invoicing a company for services not as an employee.

    The BBC had all the power in this relationship, not the workers/presenters etc and blaming the accountants is just absolving responsibility.

    They (the BBC) knew that they themselves saved tax/NI and other benefits by having workers via service companies, and thats why they did it. They could have everyone an employee, yet they chose not to.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Except....

    Hammond is going to spend the extra cash he has - and stand up in his Statement and say

    "By 2022, this Govt. will have increased spending on the NHS by £350m a week from that which we inherited from Labour". Or maybe if he gets his arm bent up his back, "Since 2015...."

    Except he will not say because the Brexiteers dare not let him say that. The NHS gets the EU £350 million per week without the need to leave the EU?
    It would be by 2022.....after we'd left.......
    Fair enough.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    mwadams said:

    Sandpit said:

    BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/

    Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
    We went through all this in the IT industry. I'm not a fan of the BBC's administration, but this doesn't seem to be something you can lay at their door directly.

    I doubt they had substitutability clauses in the contracts (for obvious reasons) and so any accountant the presenters used to set up their company, *should* have told them they were liable under IR35, and hence should've been paying their full whack of tax and NI, not just dividend taxes.

    So they should be going after their accountants, not the BBC.
    One issue more scrupulous accountants might well have is that if they tell the member of staff they should pay more NI and tax, the staff member might just hire another, less scrupulous accountant who doesn't mind sailing closer to the wind and says they don't have to....
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Pulpstar said:

    CD13 said:


    Why would anyone believe a word the Remain politicians say?. They have a track record of lying,. or should we say being economical with the truth? Shouting louder doesn't make it more convincing.

    I work on the assumption that politicians routinely. What I do dislike is when they tell preposterous lies which insult my intelligence. By comparison the £350 million per week which could be available to the NHS is the truth, but not the whole truth. A minor improvement on the wholesale deceit for years.

    We were going to have all the benefits of being in the EU with none of the downsides, Leave told us. On Friday, Theresa May confirmed that would not be the case. The leaders of the Leave campaign were either barefaced liars or spectacularly ill-informed. You can decide which it is. But neither is a great look.

    In exactly the same way that we were going to be able to keep a special status and nothing at all would change with the EU in spite of the fact everyone knew the direction of travel was for ever closer political union.

    There is no question of the Remain campaign being ill informed. They were just bare faced liars. A habit they continue to this day.
    Who was telling the truth about Northern Ireland?
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/743054573716295681
    Well certainly not Cameron since it will not happen - unfortunately of course since I want a united Ireland.
    So you’re predicting the world’s first customs border with no infrastructure and no checks at all? Now that’s magic.
    I think the whole "hard border" is being blown up out of all proportion by the remain side.

    a) Noone in a personal vehicle is going to be checked.
    b) Farmers and other small traders will generally be below a business threshold. Those that aren't, and need to make frequent crossings will be able to register their vehicles in a UK/Eire customs exclusion database.
    c) I doubt severely there'll be any physical customs posts on the border. At the most, random checks on lorries outwith the schemes could be performed. Though at present the UK and Ireland have differing duty rates for alcohol, so the same infrastructure used for enforcement of that particular issue could be used to check any customs compliance.

    A transition period for the implementation of the electronic systems will be needed but it is in practice going to just about be the world's softest customs border.
    Nice for the rest of the world to know that then .We should advertise it more .The worlds softest custom border.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    edited March 2018
    mwadams said:

    Sandpit said:

    BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/

    Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
    We went through all this in the IT industry. I'm not a fan of the BBC's administration, but this doesn't seem to be something you can lay at their door directly.

    I doubt they had substitutability clauses in the contracts (for obvious reasons) and so any accountant the presenters used to set up their company, *should* have told them they were liable under IR35, and hence should've been paying their full whack of tax and NI, not just dividend taxes.

    So they should be going after their accountants, not the BBC.
    PI insurance for accountants must be a nightmare now that HMRC have become so aggressive in going after such historic cases - even though the rules themselves haven’t changed, the interpretation certainly has. But if you’re doing 40 hours a week for seven years for the same company, that’s always been a complete no-no unless there’s substantial other earnings. You really need to do three days with one company and two days with another, or work on six month contracts now to avoid IR35.

    All of which is bloody annoying for the genuine self-employed, who take on their own business risk.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Yorkcity said:



    Nice for the rest of the world to know that then .We should advertise it more .The worlds softest custom border.

    It is already priced in with the Good Friday Agreement, the options are either no customs border or more than likely a softish one.
    Who is calling for a hard as nails roadblock border ?
    Who exactly ?
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Sandpit said:

    The only customs infrastructure would be a few ANPR cameras, which are probably there now anyway.

    It always makes me chuckle when people talk about the border nowadays. People seem to think that no watchtowers and posts means it's not monitored. If anything the border area is probably better monitored than ever, it's just that the infrastructure for doing that is all but invisible now.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    kjohnw said:

    CD13 said:


    Why would anyone believe a word the Remain politicians say?. They have a track record of lying,. or should we say being economical with the truth? Shouting louder doesn't make it more convincing.

    I work on the assumption that politicians routinely. What I do dislike is when they tell preposterous lies which insult my intelligence. By comparison the £350 million per week which could be available to the NHS is the truth, but not the whole truth. A minor improvement on the wholesale deceit for years.

    We were going to have all the benefits of being in the EU with none of the downsides, Leave told us. On Friday, Theresa May confirmed that would not be the case. The leaders of the Leave campaign were either barefaced liars or spectacularly ill-informed. You can decide which it is. But neither is a great look.

    In exactly the same way that we were going to be able to keep a special status and nothing at all would change with the EU in spite of the fact everyone knew the direction of travel was for ever closer political union.

    There is no question of the Remain campaign being ill informed. They were just bare faced liars. A habit they continue to this day.

    But Remain lost. It's the lies and the spectacular ignorance of the Leave leadership that actually matter now.

    So Remain's lies can be whitewashed, can they? Because they were such shit lies they lost the vote? Interesting.

    Well at least you acknowledge the lies. You might want to have a word with some of the Remainers posting here about that. They seem to think their campaign was whiter than white.

    Yep - the referendum campaign was almost entirely characterised by the wealthy, privileged right wingers who fronted the Leave and Remain campaigns telling lies to the electorate.

    oh yes of course left wing remainers never lied, they are such a beacon of light!

    They were hardly visible. It was Cameron and Osborne on one side, Gove and Johnson on the other, with Nigel Farage thrown in on top.
    I must have been imagining Tony Blair, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown all over the front pages.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,971
    glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    The only customs infrastructure would be a few ANPR cameras, which are probably there now anyway.

    It always makes me chuckle when people talk about the border nowadays. People seem to think that no watchtowers and posts means it's not monitored. If anything the border area is probably better monitored than ever, it's just that the infrastructure for doing that is all but invisible now.
    Magic invisible monitoring. That's handy.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Sandpit said:

    mwadams said:

    Sandpit said:

    BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/

    Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
    We went through all this in the IT industry. I'm not a fan of the BBC's administration, but this doesn't seem to be something you can lay at their door directly.

    I doubt they had substitutability clauses in the contracts (for obvious reasons) and so any accountant the presenters used to set up their company, *should* have told them they were liable under IR35, and hence should've been paying their full whack of tax and NI, not just dividend taxes.

    So they should be going after their accountants, not the BBC.
    PI insurance for accountants must be a nightmare now that HMRC have become so aggressive in going after such historic cases - even though the rules themselves haven’t changed, the interpretation certainly has. But if you’re doing 40 hours a week for seven years for the same company, that’s always been a complete no-no unless there’s substantial other earnings. You really need to do three days with one company and two days with another, or work on six month contracts now to avoid IR35.

    All of which is bloody annoying for the genuine self-employed, who take on their own business risk.
    People have been playing this game ever since I've been an accountant for the last 15 years. It's been safety in numbers.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Those are pretty awful figures for second referendum fans. The British public are getting increasingly bored of Brexit, so I don’t see the % for reopening the whole issue increasing much from here.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    Pulpstar said:

    CD13 said:



    In exactly the same way that we were going to be able to keep a special status and nothing at all would change with the EU in spite of the fact everyone knew the direction of travel was for ever closer political union.

    There is no question of the Remain campaign being ill informed. They were just bare faced liars. A habit they continue to this day.
    Who was telling the truth about Northern Ireland?
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/743054573716295681
    Well certainly not Cameron since it will not happen - unfortunately of course since I want a united Ireland.
    So you’re predicting the world’s first customs border with no infrastructure and no checks at all? Now that’s magic.
    I think the whole "hard border" is being blown up out of all proportion by the remain side.

    a) Noone in a personal vehicle is going to be checked.
    b) Farmers and other small traders will generally be below a business threshold. Those that aren't, and need to make frequent crossings will be able to register their vehicles in a UK/Eire customs exclusion database.
    c) I doubt severely there'll be any physical customs posts on the border. At the most, random checks on lorries outwith the schemes could be performed. Though at present the UK and Ireland have differing duty rates for alcohol, so the same infrastructure used for enforcement of that particular issue could be used to check any customs compliance.

    A transition period for the implementation of the electronic systems will be needed but it is in practice going to just about be the world's softest customs border.
    The Irish Border is simply not going to be a problem if we have a comprehensive FTA with the EU. If we don't and end up with at WTO type deal with tariffs it would be a lot more complicated.

    Which is why, of course, it was completely idiotic of the EU to insist it be resolved as a preliminary matter without knowing what that future relationship would be. I thought they were being clever and simply finding a way to talk about our future relationship whilst not talking about our future relationship (another piece of stupidity), but no. They were just being idiots.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    edited March 2018

    Except....

    Hammond is going to spend the extra cash he has - and stand up in his Statement and say

    "By 2022, this Govt. will have increased spending on the NHS by £350m a week from that which we inherited from Labour". Or maybe if he gets his arm bent up his back, "Since 2015...."

    Except he will not say because the Brexiteers dare not let him say that. The NHS gets the EU £350 million per week without the need to leave the EU?

    It would undermine one of the key LEAVE dogwhistles and prove what a load of twaddle the whole thing is
    As has been pointed out - by 2022. But it is a story predicated on us Leaving. Some of the £350m would come from the saving on EU membership fees (although not all by any means - the rest would come from "prudent management of the economy" which Remainers can part own too).

    The down side to doing it is it gives Boris a huge springboard to be next leader if he can say he "delivered the bus".
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited March 2018
    Elliot said:

    kjohnw said:

    CD13 said:


    Why would anyone believe a word the Remain politicians say?. They have a track record of lying,. or should we say being economical with the truth? Shouting louder doesn't make it more convincing.

    I work on the assumption that politicians routinely. What I do dislike is when they tell preposterous lies which insult my intelligence. By comparison the £350 million per week which could be available to the NHS is the truth, but not the whole truth. A minor improvement on the wholesale deceit for years.

    We were going to have all the benefits of being in the EU with none of the downsides, Leave told us. On Friday, Theresa May confirmed that would not be the case. The leaders of the Leave campaign were either barefaced liars or spectacularly ill-informed. You can decide which it is. But neither is a great look.

    In exactly the same way that we were going to be able to keep a special status and nothing at all would change with the EU in spite of the fact everyone knew the direction of travel was for ever closer political union.

    There is no question of the Remain campaign being ill informed. They were just bare faced liars. A habit they continue to this day.

    But Remain lost. It's the lies and the spectacular ignorance of the Leave leadership that actually matter now.

    So Remain's lies can be whitewashed, can they? Because they were such shit lies they lost the vote? Interesting.

    Well at least you acknowledge the lies. You might want to have a word with some of the Remainers posting here about that. They seem to think their campaign was whiter than white.

    Yep - the referendum campaign was almost entirely characterised by the wealthy, privileged right wingers who fronted the Leave and Remain campaigns telling lies to the electorate.

    oh yes of course left wing remainers never lied, they are such a beacon of light!

    They were hardly visible. It was Cameron and Osborne on one side, Gove and Johnson on the other, with Nigel Farage thrown in on top.
    I must have been imagining Tony Blair, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown all over the front pages.
    Don't forget "Sir John" ;) And Mark Carney made regular "interventions"
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    Yorkcity said:



    Nice for the rest of the world to know that then .We should advertise it more .The worlds softest custom border.

    It is already priced in with the Good Friday Agreement, the options are either no customs border or more than likely a softish one.
    Who is calling for a hard as nails roadblock border ?
    Who exactly ?
    It’s the same fictional hard Brexiteers that were furious with Mays speech on Friday.

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,970
    Thanks, Mr. Pulpstar and Mr. Z.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,907
    Elliot said:



    They were hardly visible. It was Cameron and Osborne on one side, Gove and Johnson on the other, with Nigel Farage thrown in on top.

    I must have been imagining Tony Blair, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown all over the front pages.
    Media coverage was dominated by Tories:
    https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/eu-referendum/uk-news-coverage-2016-eu-referendum-report-5-6-may-22-june-2016/

    Leading Labour figures were Corbyn #7, Brown #9, Gisela Stuart [out] (#12=), Sadiq Khan (#17=) and Alistair Darling (#20).

    Blair and Clegg don't make the top 30.

    Any list of the top lies/misleading things of the campaign would surely have to have 350m a week for the NHS, Turkey joining the EU, over dramatic recession forecasting... All of those propagated by Conservatives.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    edited March 2018

    Sandpit said:

    mwadams said:

    Sandpit said:

    BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/

    Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
    We went through all this in the IT industry. I'm not a fan of the BBC's administration, but this doesn't seem to be something you can lay at their door directly.

    I doubt they had substitutability clauses in the contracts (for obvious reasons) and so any accountant the presenters used to set up their company, *should* have told them they were liable under IR35, and hence should've been paying their full whack of tax and NI, not just dividend taxes.

    So they should be going after their accountants, not the BBC.
    PI insurance for accountants must be a nightmare now that HMRC have become so aggressive in going after such historic cases - even though the rules themselves haven’t changed, the interpretation certainly has. But if you’re doing 40 hours a week for seven years for the same company, that’s always been a complete no-no unless there’s substantial other earnings. You really need to do three days with one company and two days with another, or work on six month contracts now to avoid IR35.

    All of which is bloody annoying for the genuine self-employed, who take on their own business risk.
    People have been playing this game ever since I've been an accountant for the last 15 years. It's been safety in numbers.
    To be blunt both the BBC and the presenters are at fault here - the BBC wanted to reduce administrative hassle, the presenters were presented with more money. I actually don't think the interpretation has changed here at all its just a question of HMRC being as slow as they always are in pushing the point.

    In all cases it seems no one actually thought that there was an existing law especially designed to cover the plan - but this is about as blatant a Monday to Friday change in working practices as you could possibly imagine and is covered by the original intent of the IR35 legislation.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    RoyalBlue said:

    Those are pretty awful figures for second referendum fans. The British public are getting increasingly bored of Brexit, so I don’t see the % for reopening the whole issue increasing much from here.
    It's always been obvious there wouldn't be another referendum... What government is going to want to have another referendum after what happened to Cameron's government?
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814

    Mr. Pulpstar, that sun speed stat is weird. Any idea of the reason behind it?

    Any probe launched from the Earth starts off with Earth's orbital velocity in its own trajectory around the Sun (it's being thrown off a moving platform).

    The equations governing orbital trajectories simplify down such that escape velocity (from a given altitude) equals the square root of two times the orbital velocity at that altitude (so escape velocity is about 1.41 times orbital velocity).

    The probe starts at very close to 1 x orbital velocity (as it's just been thrown off a platform moving at exactly that speed). To accelerate to escape velocity, it's got to add just over 41% of that speed (Earth's orbital velocity) again. But to fall into the Sun, it's got to lose all that orbital velocity. Decelerating in space (unless you find a convenient atmosphere to use for aerobraking) is exactly the same as acceleration, just with your rocket pointing in the opposite direction. So you have to lose 100% of that Earth orbital velocity you started with.

    So it requires about two and a half times as much velocity change to fall into the Sun as it does to escape it completely. (And given that the rocket equation is logarithmic, the amount of fuel required is far greater than two-and-a-half times)
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Yorkcity said:



    Nice for the rest of the world to know that then .We should advertise it more .The worlds softest custom border.

    It is already priced in with the Good Friday Agreement, the options are either no customs border or more than likely a softish one.
    Who is calling for a hard as nails roadblock border ?
    Who exactly ?
    It’s the same fictional hard Brexiteers that were furious with Mays speech on Friday.

    I have never hidden that I am not a fan of Mrs May. But the way she has managed to bring her party together on the proposals in her Friday speech has been seriously impressive. I expected at least some of the awkward squads on both sides of the argument to be on the Sunday chat shows moaning about too much/ too little being given away. If there was a cheep I missed it.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Yorkcity said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CD13 said:


    Why would anyone believe a word the Remain politicians say?. They have a track record of lying,. or should we say being economical with the truth? Shouting louder doesn't make it more convincing.



    We were going to have all the benefits of being in the EU with none of the downsides, Leave told us. On Friday, Theresa May confirmed that would not be the case. The leaders of the Leave campaign were either barefaced liars or spectacularly ill-informed. You can decide which it is. But neither is a great look.

    In exactly the same way that we were going to be able to keep a special status and nothing at all would change with the EU in spite of the fact everyone knew the direction of travel was for ever closer political union.

    There is no question of the Remain campaign being ill informed. They were just bare faced liars. A habit they continue to this day.
    Who was telling the truth about Northern Ireland?
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/743054573716295681
    Well certainly not Cameron since it will not happen - unfortunately of course since I want a united Ireland.
    So you’re predicting the world’s first customs border with no infrastructure and no checks at all? Now that’s magic.
    I think the whole "hard border" is being blown up out of all proportion by the remain side.

    a) Noone in a personal vehicle is going to be checked.
    b) Farmers and other small traders will generally be below a business threshold. Those that aren't, and need to make frequent crossings will be able to register their vehicles in a UK/Eire customs exclusion database.
    c) I doubt severely there'll be any physical customs posts on the border. At the most, random checks on lorries outwith the schemes could be performed. Though at present the UK and Ireland have differing duty rates for alcohol, so the same infrastructure used for enforcement of that particular issue could be used to check any customs compliance.

    A transition period for the implementation of the electronic systems will be needed but it is in practice going to just about be the world's softest customs border.
    Nice for the rest of the world to know that then .We should advertise it more .The worlds softest custom border.

    There is currently a VAT, corporation tax and income tax border between NI and Ireland. The EU accepts the absence of a hard border for checks.

    So why are the EU suggesting there would be a need for a hard customs border if there is no customs union in future?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited March 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Those are pretty awful figures for second referendum fans. The British public are getting increasingly bored of Brexit, so I don’t see the % for reopening the whole issue increasing much from here.
    It's always been obvious there wouldn't be another referendum... What government is going to want to have another referendum after what happened to Cameron's government?
    And to add, given the polling numbers we're seeing at the moment, Remainers aren't going to want to force a referendum on the government either as there's absolutely no guarantee the first result would be over-turned and every chance Leave could win by a similar or even bigger margin.

    EU Ref 2 is DOA.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855

    Sandpit said:

    mwadams said:

    Sandpit said:

    BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/

    Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
    We went through all this in the IT industry. I'm not a fan of the BBC's administration, but this doesn't seem to be something you can lay at their door directly.

    I doubt they had substitutability clauses in the contracts (for obvious reasons) and so any accountant the presenters used to set up their company, *should* have told them they were liable under IR35, and hence should've been paying their full whack of tax and NI, not just dividend taxes.

    So they should be going after their accountants, not the BBC.
    PI insurance for accountants must be a nightmare now that HMRC have become so aggressive in going after such historic cases - even though the rules themselves haven’t changed, the interpretation certainly has. But if you’re doing 40 hours a week for seven years for the same company, that’s always been a complete no-no unless there’s substantial other earnings. You really need to do three days with one company and two days with another, or work on six month contracts now to avoid IR35.

    All of which is bloody annoying for the genuine self-employed, who take on their own business risk.
    People have been playing this game ever since I've been an accountant for the last 15 years. It's been safety in numbers.
    I was on the other side of it as an IT consultant in the UK for a few years. It’s been pretty clear for a while that if you have only one customer for the whole tax year you’re going to get done. A 12 month contract might be okay if it didn’t start in April, and make sure you have lots of meetings with prospects and agents in the diary throughout the year.

    Thankfully I don’t have to deal with that any more, no self-employment reporting requirements in the sandpit if you can stay under the $100k VAT threshold.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    rkrkrk said:

    Elliot said:



    They were hardly visible. It was Cameron and Osborne on one side, Gove and Johnson on the other, with Nigel Farage thrown in on top.

    I must have been imagining Tony Blair, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown all over the front pages.
    Media coverage was dominated by Tories:
    https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/eu-referendum/uk-news-coverage-2016-eu-referendum-report-5-6-may-22-june-2016/

    Leading Labour figures were Corbyn #7, Brown #9, Gisela Stuart [out] (#12=), Sadiq Khan (#17=) and Alistair Darling (#20).

    Blair and Clegg don't make the top 30.

    Any list of the top lies/misleading things of the campaign would surely have to have 350m a week for the NHS, Turkey joining the EU, over dramatic recession forecasting... All of those propagated by Conservatives.
    And if the £350m a week gets delivered? The campaign for a second referendum is so screwed. Corbyn couldn't be on the wrong side of delivering that. "Why does Labour hate the NHS so much, it wants to get in the way of delivering it £350 m a week more?" Not a good look.

    One solid reason for the Govt. to do it.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    edited March 2018
    rkrkrk said:

    Elliot said:



    They were hardly visible. It was Cameron and Osborne on one side, Gove and Johnson on the other, with Nigel Farage thrown in on top.

    I must have been imagining Tony Blair, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown all over the front pages.
    Media coverage was dominated by Tories:
    https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/eu-referendum/uk-news-coverage-2016-eu-referendum-report-5-6-may-22-june-2016/

    Leading Labour figures were Corbyn #7, Brown #9, Gisela Stuart [out] (#12=), Sadiq Khan (#17=) and Alistair Darling (#20).

    Blair and Clegg don't make the top 30.

    Any list of the top lies/misleading things of the campaign would surely have to have 350m a week for the NHS, Turkey joining the EU, over dramatic recession forecasting... All of those propagated by Conservatives.
    I suspect the reason for that is more to do with the remain campaign leadership's decisions than any media conspiracy.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,970
    Mr. Cooke, cheers.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,971
    Another rhetorical hot take from Tessy.

    https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/970613357165404160

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Yorkcity said:



    Nice for the rest of the world to know that then .We should advertise it more .The worlds softest custom border.

    It is already priced in with the Good Friday Agreement, the options are either no customs border or more than likely a softish one.
    Who is calling for a hard as nails roadblock border ?
    Who exactly ?
    It’s the same fictional hard Brexiteers that were furious with Mays speech on Friday.

    I have never hidden that I am not a fan of Mrs May. But the way she has managed to bring her party together on the proposals in her Friday speech has been seriously impressive. I expected at least some of the awkward squads on both sides of the argument to be on the Sunday chat shows moaning about too much/ too little being given away. If there was a cheep I missed it.
    Theresa was very good in her interview with Marr as well. Has she finally turned the corner on her election debacle?
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Yorkcity said:



    Nice for the rest of the world to know that then .We should advertise it more .The worlds softest custom border.

    It is already priced in with the Good Friday Agreement, the options are either no customs border or more than likely a softish one.
    Who is calling for a hard as nails roadblock border ?
    Who exactly ?
    It’s the same fictional hard Brexiteers that were furious with Mays speech on Friday.

    I have never hidden that I am not a fan of Mrs May. But the way she has managed to bring her party together on the proposals in her Friday speech has been seriously impressive. I expected at least some of the awkward squads on both sides of the argument to be on the Sunday chat shows moaning about too much/ too little being given away. If there was a cheep I missed it.
    Proposals when what we need workable solutions
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    calum said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Yorkcity said:



    Nice for the rest of the world to know that then .We should advertise it more .The worlds softest custom border.

    It is already priced in with the Good Friday Agreement, the options are either no customs border or more than likely a softish one.
    Who is calling for a hard as nails roadblock border ?
    Who exactly ?
    It’s the same fictional hard Brexiteers that were furious with Mays speech on Friday.

    I have never hidden that I am not a fan of Mrs May. But the way she has managed to bring her party together on the proposals in her Friday speech has been seriously impressive. I expected at least some of the awkward squads on both sides of the argument to be on the Sunday chat shows moaning about too much/ too little being given away. If there was a cheep I missed it.
    Proposals when what we need workable solutions
    It is a negotiation. Her proposals were workable. Whether they are acceptable to the EU27 remains to be seen. The answer is almost certainly going to be not entirely but for the first time the UK seems to have the initiative.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    It is a negotiation. Her proposals were workable.

    Only if the EU allow cherry picking.

    Can't see any flaw in that plan at all...
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,280
    glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    The only customs infrastructure would be a few ANPR cameras, which are probably there now anyway.

    It always makes me chuckle when people talk about the border nowadays. People seem to think that no watchtowers and posts means it's not monitored. If anything the border area is probably better monitored than ever, it's just that the infrastructure for doing that is all but invisible now.
    Borders aren't a problem today in a way they were 30 years.

    Technology is the key differentiator. Virtually everything leaves an electronic trail these days.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Yorkcity said:



    Nice for the rest of the world to know that then .We should advertise it more .The worlds softest custom border.

    It is already priced in with the Good Friday Agreement, the options are either no customs border or more than likely a softish one.
    Who is calling for a hard as nails roadblock border ?
    Who exactly ?
    It’s the same fictional hard Brexiteers that were furious with Mays speech on Friday.

    I have never hidden that I am not a fan of Mrs May. But the way she has managed to bring her party together on the proposals in her Friday speech has been seriously impressive. I expected at least some of the awkward squads on both sides of the argument to be on the Sunday chat shows moaning about too much/ too little being given away. If there was a cheep I missed it.
    Theresa was very good in her interview with Marr as well. Has she finally turned the corner on her election debacle?
    Let's not get too carried away. She has shown herself to be quite good on the technical detail stuff. She remains awful at the empathy vision stuff. She still avoids speaking to the public. She is still very dull to listen to. She has no obvious wit, when she tries it is often painful. In short, giving her another election still looks deeply problematic.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    edited March 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Elliot said:

    kjohnw said:

    CD13 said:


    Why would anyone believe a word the Remain politicians say?. They have a track record of lying

    I work on the assumption that politicians routinely. What I do dislike is when they tell preposterous lies which insult my intelligence. By comparison the £350 million per week which could be available to the NHS is the truth, but not the whole truth. A minor improvement on the wholesale deceit for years.

    We were going to have all the benefits of being in the EU with none of the downsides, Leave told us. On Friday, Theresa May confirmed that would not be the case. The leaders of the Leave campaign were either barefaced liars or spectacularly ill-informed. You can decide which it is. But neither is a great look.

    In exactly the same way that we were going to be able to keep a special status and nothing at all would change with the EU in spite of the fact everyone knew the direction of travel was for ever closer political union.

    There is no question of the Remain campaign being ill informed. They were just bare faced liars. A habit they continue to this day.

    But Remain lost. It's the lies and the spectacular ignorance of the Leave leadership that actually matter now.

    So Remain's lies can be whitewashed, can they? Because they were such shit lies they lost the vote? Interesting.

    Well at least you acknowledge the lies. You might want to have a word with some of the Remainers posting here about that. They seem to think their campaign was whiter than white.

    Yep - the referendum campaign was almost entirely characterised by the wealthy, privileged right wingers who fronted the Leave and Remain campaigns telling lies to the electorate.

    oh yes of course left wing remainers never lied, they are such a beacon of light!

    They were hardly visible. It was Cameron and Osborne on one side, Gove and Johnson on the other, with Nigel Farage thrown in on top.
    I must have been imagining Tony Blair, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown all over the front pages.
    Don't forget "Sir John" ;) And Mark Carney made regular "interventions"
    Honourable mentions to Barack “Back of the Queue” Obama and Sir Philip “Vote Remain for lower wages” Green - the latter completely failing to understand, on his first day as a politician, that his comments might be reported more widely than to the audience of business leaders in the room.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,280
    GIN1138 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Those are pretty awful figures for second referendum fans. The British public are getting increasingly bored of Brexit, so I don’t see the % for reopening the whole issue increasing much from here.
    It's always been obvious there wouldn't be another referendum... What government is going to want to have another referendum after what happened to Cameron's government?
    The appetite for a second referendum should diminish if a close/deep deal is done between the UK and EU that doesn't impinge upon the everyday lives of ordinary Britons. That means things like prices, holidays, going to Europe on business for a few days or retiring in the sun.

    Of course, for the more fanatically dedicated 10-15% of the population who venerate europeanism/globalism/internationalism, there will be a rejoining campaign going on for decades.

    I expect this to have legs - as there is a lot of sympathy in the highest echolons of media, business and the civil service for it - so Labour will need to do some genuflexion on it at some point. But, I don't think it would win a referendum, or even come close.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2018
    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Elliot said:



    They were hardly visible. It was Cameron and Osborne on one side, Gove and Johnson on the other, with Nigel Farage thrown in on top.

    I must have been imagining Tony Blair, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown all over the front pages.
    Media coverage was dominated by Tories:
    https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/eu-referendum/uk-news-coverage-2016-eu-referendum-report-5-6-may-22-june-2016/

    Leading Labour figures were Corbyn #7, Brown #9, Gisela Stuart [out] (#12=), Sadiq Khan (#17=) and Alistair Darling (#20).

    Blair and Clegg don't make the top 30.

    Any list of the top lies/misleading things of the campaign would surely have to have 350m a week for the NHS, Turkey joining the EU, over dramatic recession forecasting... All of those propagated by Conservatives.
    I suspect the reason for that is more to do with the remain campaign leadership's decisions than any media conspiracy.
    It was because Corbyn, and especially Seamas Milne, deliberately sabotaged attempts by Stronger In to use Labour politicians and Labour-friendly arguments in the campaign, as Tim Shipman's book documents in great detail.

    If disappointed Remainers want to focus blame for the referendum result on one figure, it should be Jeremy Corbyn.
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    Latest report on Italy says that the result will mean the next government will be very anti the EU and will cause big problems for Brussels.

    Also neither the BBC or Guardian are making much of an effort to report the results but that is maybe not unsurprising.as it does not chime with their EU agenda

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    It is a negotiation. Her proposals were workable.

    Only if the EU allow cherry picking.

    Can't see any flaw in that plan at all...
    Only if the EU don't want £39,000,000,000.00.

    [Hint: they do.]
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,907
    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Elliot said:



    They were hardly visible. It was Cameron and Osborne on one side, Gove and Johnson on the other, with Nigel Farage thrown in on top.

    I must have been imagining Tony Blair, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown all over the front pages.
    Media coverage was dominated by Tories:
    https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/eu-referendum/uk-news-coverage-2016-eu-referendum-report-5-6-may-22-june-2016/

    Leading Labour figures were Corbyn #7, Brown #9, Gisela Stuart [out] (#12=), Sadiq Khan (#17=) and Alistair Darling (#20).

    Blair and Clegg don't make the top 30.

    Any list of the top lies/misleading things of the campaign would surely have to have 350m a week for the NHS, Turkey joining the EU, over dramatic recession forecasting... All of those propagated by Conservatives.
    I suspect the reason for that is more to do with the remain campaign leadership's decisions than any media conspiracy.
    Absolutely not a media conspiracy - didn't mean to suggest that at all.
    But the big lies of the campaign did come from the conservatives/UKIP and the campaign was dominated by those two parties arguing with each other.

    I think I recall Johnson criticizing Osborne for over-egging the economic impacts.
    Corbyn of course famously said 7/10 for the EU.

    The Labour Remainers presented a more honest assessment of the EU accepting it had flaws.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Yorkcity said:



    Nice for the rest of the world to know that then .We should advertise it more .The worlds softest custom border.

    It is already priced in with the Good Friday Agreement, the options are either no customs border or more than likely a softish one.
    Who is calling for a hard as nails roadblock border ?
    Who exactly ?
    It’s the same fictional hard Brexiteers that were furious with Mays speech on Friday.

    I have never hidden that I am not a fan of Mrs May. But the way she has managed to bring her party together on the proposals in her Friday speech has been seriously impressive. I expected at least some of the awkward squads on both sides of the argument to be on the Sunday chat shows moaning about too much/ too little being given away. If there was a cheep I missed it.
    Theresa was very good in her interview with Marr as well. Has she finally turned the corner on her election debacle?
    Let's not get too carried away. She has shown herself to be quite good on the technical detail stuff. She remains awful at the empathy vision stuff. She still avoids speaking to the public. She is still very dull to listen to. She has no obvious wit, when she tries it is often painful. In short, giving her another election still looks deeply problematic.
    Oh, she won't get another election. I just mean has she turned the corner the possibility of being removed at any moment?

    It looks like she's there until 2019/2020 now (which I honestly wouldn't have expected on June 9th 2017...)
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,280

    Except....

    Hammond is going to spend the extra cash he has - and stand up in his Statement and say

    "By 2022, this Govt. will have increased spending on the NHS by £350m a week from that which we inherited from Labour". Or maybe if he gets his arm bent up his back, "Since 2015...."

    Except he will not say because the Brexiteers dare not let him say that. The NHS gets the EU £350 million per week without the need to leave the EU?

    It would undermine one of the key LEAVE dogwhistles and prove what a load of twaddle the whole thing is
    As has been pointed out - by 2022. But it is a story predicated on us Leaving. Some of the £350m would come from the saving on EU membership fees (although not all by any means - the rest would come from "prudent management of the economy" which Remainers can part own too).

    The down side to doing it is it gives Boris a huge springboard to be next leader if he can say he "delivered the bus".
    I expect us to be paying something like 1-1.5bn a year for the divorce settlement for c.20 years, and another 3-4bn a year for associate memberships, solidarity and access. So up to 5.5bn a year.

    Still less than well over 9bn a year net "as is". So there should be 3-5bn per year available to "bank" back to UK HMG, as well as all the CAP payments being repatriated.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Yorkcity said:



    Nice for the rest of the world to know that then .We should advertise it more .The worlds softest custom border.

    It is already priced in with the Good Friday Agreement, the options are either no customs border or more than likely a softish one.
    Who is calling for a hard as nails roadblock border ?
    Who exactly ?
    It’s the same fictional hard Brexiteers that were furious with Mays speech on Friday.

    I have never hidden that I am not a fan of Mrs May. But the way she has managed to bring her party together on the proposals in her Friday speech has been seriously impressive. I expected at least some of the awkward squads on both sides of the argument to be on the Sunday chat shows moaning about too much/ too little being given away. If there was a cheep I missed it.
    Theresa was very good in her interview with Marr as well. Has she finally turned the corner on her election debacle?
    Let's not get too carried away. She has shown herself to be quite good on the technical detail stuff. She remains awful at the empathy vision stuff. She still avoids speaking to the public. She is still very dull to listen to. She has no obvious wit, when she tries it is often painful. In short, giving her another election still looks deeply problematic.
    Oh, she won't get another election. I just mean has she turned the corner the possibility of being removed at any moment?

    It looks like she's there until 2019/2020 now (which I honestly wouldn't have expected on June 9th 2017...)
    I would agree. There is, health permitting, now no chance of her being removed/standing down until Brexit is delivered.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029

    Of course, for the more fanatically dedicated 10-15% of the population who venerate europeanism/globalism/internationalism, there will be a rejoining campaign going on for decades.

    Would you not put unionism in the same category?
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    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    It is a negotiation. Her proposals were workable.

    Only if the EU allow cherry picking.

    Can't see any flaw in that plan at all...
    Every trade deal is cherry picking but it does not suit your narrative
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    It is a negotiation. Her proposals were workable.

    Only if the EU allow cherry picking.

    Can't see any flaw in that plan at all...
    The Canada deal is cherry picking. The Korea deal is cherry picking. Every trade deal in the world is a unique mix of sectors and measures, making them all cherry picking.

    The "no cherry picking" line is a pure negotiation tactic by the EU. Of course, those in the UK side taking their side over the UK's are helping them propagate it.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Latest report on Italy says that the result will mean the next government will be very anti the EU and will cause big problems for Brussels.

    Also neither the BBC or Guardian are making much of an effort to report the results but that is maybe not unsurprising.as it does not chime with their EU agenda

    The Guardian had a pretty good live blog this morning, they reported the situation seemingly without any agenda just the facts. I think hey gave up because there was no real news coming out.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.

    It would be a "brave" government that would force the electorate to have a referendum they don't want... Well brave is one word for it...
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Elliot said:



    They were hardly visible. It was Cameron and Osborne on one side, Gove and Johnson on the other, with Nigel Farage thrown in on top.

    I must have been imagining Tony Blair, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown all over the front pages.
    Media coverage was dominated by Tories:
    https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/eu-referendum/uk-news-coverage-2016-eu-referendum-report-5-6-may-22-june-2016/

    Leading Labour figures were Corbyn #7, Brown #9, Gisela Stuart [out] (#12=), Sadiq Khan (#17=) and Alistair Darling (#20).

    Blair and Clegg don't make the top 30.

    Any list of the top lies/misleading things of the campaign would surely have to have 350m a week for the NHS, Turkey joining the EU, over dramatic recession forecasting... All of those propagated by Conservatives.
    I suspect the reason for that is more to do with the remain campaign leadership's decisions than any media conspiracy.
    Absolutely not a media conspiracy - didn't mean to suggest that at all.
    But the big lies of the campaign did come from the conservatives/UKIP and the campaign was dominated by those two parties arguing with each other.

    I think I recall Johnson criticizing Osborne for over-egging the economic impacts.
    Corbyn of course famously said 7/10 for the EU.

    The Labour Remainers presented a more honest assessment of the EU accepting it had flaws.
    I agree with you, but the problem with the honest assessment of the EU is that inevitably the answer is "it's shit, but..." you can't run a campaign based on that.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    On the Italian mess, it seems to me that, irrespective of what the leadership decides, M5S parliamentarians are unlikely to act as a disciplined body which can be corralled into a coalition with any of the other parties. Voters around Europe seem to be forming a habit of electing combinations of parties which cannot actually form governments.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    May looks like she's talking from the set of Prisoner: Cell Block H.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,970
    Mr. Sandpit, wasn't that Stuart Rose, rather than Philip Green?
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    mwadams said:

    Sandpit said:

    BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/

    Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
    We went through all this in the IT industry. I'm not a fan of the BBC's administration, but this doesn't seem to be something you can lay at their door directly.

    I doubt they had substitutability clauses in the contracts (for obvious reasons) and so any accountant the presenters used to set up their company, *should* have told them they were liable under IR35, and hence should've been paying their full whack of tax and NI, not just dividend taxes.

    So they should be going after their accountants, not the BBC.
    PI insurance for accountants must be a nightmare now that HMRC have become so aggressive in going after such historic cases - even though the rules themselves haven’t changed, the interpretation certainly has. But if you’re doing 40 hours a week for seven years for the same company, that’s always been a complete no-no unless there’s substantial other earnings. You really need to do three days with one company and two days with another, or work on six month contracts now to avoid IR35.

    All of which is bloody annoying for the genuine self-employed, who take on their own business risk.
    People have been playing this game ever since I've been an accountant for the last 15 years. It's been safety in numbers.
    I was on the other side of it as an IT consultant in the UK for a few years. It’s been pretty clear for a while that if you have only one customer for the whole tax year you’re going to get done. A 12 month contract might be okay if it didn’t start in April, and make sure you have lots of meetings with prospects and agents in the diary throughout the year.

    Thankfully I don’t have to deal with that any more, no self-employment reporting requirements in the sandpit if you can stay under the $100k VAT threshold.
    I thought the VAT threshold was lower than £100,000. More like £72,000 ?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,292
    Matt D'Ancona nails it with the current outbreak of peace within the Tory party - they've finally realized Jezza's Labour is a serious and dangerous threat and have belatedly decided to show a united front.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/04/theresa-may-truce-brexit-battle-europe-speech

    But Theresa is surely walking a tightrope. One misstep or hint of betrayal and it will all kick off once more.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,971
    edited March 2018
    Sandpit said:


    Honourable mentions to Barack “Back of the Queue” Obama and Sir Philip “Vote Remain for lower wages” Green - the latter completely failing to understand, on his first day as a politician, that his comments might be reported more widely than to the audience of business leaders in the room.

    Who is this Sir Philip “Vote Remain for lower wages” Green of whom you speak?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,955
    edited March 2018

    On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.

    She has already signed the Article 50 letter and neither she nor her party nor Corbyn back a second referendum.

    After last night's Italian results there is now probably more chance of Italy leaving the Euro than the UK rejoining the EU
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:


    Why would anyone believe a word the Remain politicians say?. They have a track record of lying,. or should we say being economical with the truth? Shouting louder doesn't make it more convincing.

    I work on the assumption that politicians routinely. What I do dislike is when they tell preposterous lies which insult my intelligence. By comparison the £350 million per week which could be available to the NHS is the truth, but not the whole truth. A minor improvement on the wholesale deceit for years.

    We were going to have all the benefits of being in the EU with none of the downsides, Leave told us. On Friday, Theresa May confirmed that would not be the case. The leaders of the Leave campaign were either barefaced liars or spectacularly ill-informed. You can decide which it is. But neither is a great look.

    In exactly the same way that we were going to be able to keep a special status and nothing at all would change with the EU in spite of the fact everyone knew the direction of travel was for ever closer political union.

    There is no question of the Remain campaign being ill informed. They were just bare faced liars. A habit they continue to this day.
    £350m/wk ?
    Except....

    Hammond is going to spend the extra cash he has - and stand up in his Statement and say

    "By 2022, this Govt. will have increased spending on the NHS by £350m a week from that which we inherited from Labour". Or maybe if he gets his arm bent up his back, "Since 2015...."

    Boris and The Moggster back in lock-step with May and Hammond. Everyone can claim how they did their bit in the Great Brexit War. Then on with governing.
    £350m a week is £18bn a year, or 15% of the £120bn NHS budget. Over the six years between the referendum and the next scheduled election, that’s less than 1% annual real terms increase, should be very easy to do.

    Hammond just needs to make a massive fanfare about it in his statement next week, that the Leave campaign said there would be £350m a for the NHS and this government will deliver £350m a week for the NHS! (Cue massive applause from the benches behind him).
    It would have to bring at least Sarah Wollaston back on board (given she flounced in the Referendum campaign itself because the £350m number was just crazy talk....) and probably the rest too.

    IF (big IF) the Tories could go into the next election with an OK Brexit deal and the NHS up £350m a week - well, I wouldn't want to be Jeremy Corbyn!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138

    On the Italian mess, it seems to me that, irrespective of what the leadership decides, M5S parliamentarians are unlikely to act as a disciplined body which can be corralled into a coalition with any of the other parties. Voters around Europe seem to be forming a habit of electing combinations of parties which cannot actually form governments.

    It would indeed be surprising if M5S did not have its full quota of UKIP style eccentricity. But it is going to be almost impossible to form a government without at least their tacit support.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,928
    At least the weather’s improving. Well it is here, anyway!
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    DavidL said:
    "Theresa Bricks It"
    "Wall to Wall Chaos"
    "Walls Have EUers" (ears, yes, that one is a bit feeble)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    The back of the queue quite pissed off so many people and at a crucial time in the campaign.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903

    Latest report on Italy says that the result will mean the next government will be very anti the EU and will cause big problems for Brussels.

    Also neither the BBC or Guardian are making much of an effort to report the results but that is maybe not unsurprising.as it does not chime with their EU agenda

    I think that is unfair on the Guardian, their final take from their liveblog look eminently sensible to me:

    The key question is whether M5S will soften its policy against alliances with “established” parties, as Luigi Di Maio, the movement’s prime ministerial candidate has signaled he might in recent months.

    Equally important will be the stance of Matteo Salvini, the leader of the Lega. He must now choose between dominance of the centre right and a role as Mr Di Maio’s junior coalition partner, which could cause support for the Lega fall.


    So it is basically Salvini or Di Maio who will be the next PM.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    Stuart Rose versus Phillip Green. They should sort it out on the pavement.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Theresa bricking it....
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    DavidL said:

    On the Italian mess, it seems to me that, irrespective of what the leadership decides, M5S parliamentarians are unlikely to act as a disciplined body which can be corralled into a coalition with any of the other parties. Voters around Europe seem to be forming a habit of electing combinations of parties which cannot actually form governments.

    It would indeed be surprising if M5S did not have its full quota of UKIP style eccentricity. But it is going to be almost impossible to form a government without at least their tacit support.
    Tacit!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Can May repoint the Tories to victory ?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    I blame brexit...can’t get the staff these days now all the poles have gone home.
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    A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.

    Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.

    The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.

    It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.

    Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections-2018-new-poll-shock-for-tories-in-london-most-voters-reject-partys-message-on-low-a3781636.html
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,907
    MaxPB said:



    I agree with you, but the problem with the honest assessment of the EU is that inevitably the answer is "it's shit, but..." you can't run a campaign based on that.

    I don't think it's shit - just has major problems.

    I remember OGH saying he thought whichever side Cameron (then a trusted politician) backed would win. Well Cameron destroyed his trustworthiness in record speed by

    a) suggesting that he was considering leaving
    b) pretending he had negotiated something big with Brussels
    c) then turning round and saying the EU was wonderful and the sky would fall in if we left

    I'm unconvinced that the Cameron/Osborne strategy in the referendum was much good.
    Maybe the result would have different if they'd fronted a more honest campaign.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    Pulpstar said:

    Can May repoint the Tories to victory ?

    I think she is insulated from the outside, and probably needs to get plastered.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Better off grout ?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,158

    Sandpit said:

    BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/

    Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
    Surely, it is the BBC which has also avoided tax by not having to pay employer's NI. Is HMRC going after them as well?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.

    How much cash are you prepared to back up your "second referendum" with?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    Come the Glorious day backdrop
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/

    Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
    Surely, it is the BBC which has also avoided tax by not having to pay employer's NI. Is HMRC going after them as well?
    They certainly should do so.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,971

    On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.

    Mini me is at it as well.

    'Ruth Davidson sets three key tests for indyref2'

    https://tinyurl.com/ybawu6ty

    Worst case of delusions of being in government I've seen.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can May repoint the Tories to victory ?

    I think she is insulated from the outside, and probably needs to get plastered.
    Looks a pretty reliable lagging indicator to me.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    DavidL said:

    calum said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Yorkcity said:



    Nice for the rest of the world to know that then .We should advertise it more .The worlds softest custom border.

    It is already priced in with the Good Friday Agreement, the options are either no customs border or more than likely a softish one.
    Who is calling for a hard as nails roadblock border ?
    Who exactly ?
    It’s the same fictional hard Brexiteers that were furious with Mays speech on Friday.

    I have never hidden that I am not a fan of Mrs May. But the way she has managed to bring her party together on the proposals in her Friday speech has been seriously impressive. I expected at least some of the awkward squads on both sides of the argument to be on the Sunday chat shows moaning about too much/ too little being given away. If there was a cheep I missed it.
    Proposals when what we need workable solutions
    It is a negotiation. Her proposals were workable. Whether they are acceptable to the EU27 remains to be seen. The answer is almost certainly going to be not entirely but for the first time the UK seems to have the initiative.
    Taking my sector, financial services, only realistic solution is paying to play in the SM and continuing to comply with all the EU Directives - how much? - £1 billion p.a. wouldn't be unreasonable. TM's proposed divergence approach isn't going to fly in financial services.
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    So the Tories are on course to the get dockside hooker treatment in London.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903

    A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.

    Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.

    The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.

    It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.

    Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections-2018-new-poll-shock-for-tories-in-london-most-voters-reject-partys-message-on-low-a3781636.html

    Council tax in Coventry went up 4.9% with the Labour administered council this year. So I asked my Dad what it would have gone up if the Tories were in charge.
    The alternative budget had a 4.9% increase too ;)
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can May repoint the Tories to victory ?

    I think she is insulated from the outside, and probably needs to get plastered.
    Looks a pretty reliable lagging indicator to me.
    There may be a window of opportunity, if she meets herself at the corner...
This discussion has been closed.