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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggy still leads Jez in the “PM after TMay” betting

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggy still leads Jez in the “PM after TMay” betting

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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,082
    His Moggesty.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    Boris is more likely to be the next PM and should swap places with Mogg who is more likely to be next leader of the opposition if Corbyn becomes PM
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434
    His pivot to the centre after the Mansion House speech was masterly, and makes him look a lot more serious.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    Amber Rudd too high. She is not the answer after May.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,427
    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,427
    And another one chips in.

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability. The alternative is unthinkable, surely?

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,387
    Late entrant Tracey Crouch soon to burst on to the board....?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,867

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability.

    Like membership?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,841

    Amber Rudd too high. She is not the answer after May.

    If PBTories were really convinced that the single thing wrong with the 2017 campaign was that May did bad interviews, then I suppose Rudd would make some sense -- she is better at thinking on her feet and improvising than May is.

    Obviously I think the Tories are on a hiding to nothing if they think that was the only thing wrong in 2017, though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,738

    And another one chips in.

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability. The alternative is unthinkable, surely?

    It's in Ireland's interests to delay Brexit indefinitely I think. I mean it's in ours too - the Tories will be slaughtered if it happens though, the leave switchers won't bother heading to the polls whilst remainers all switch over to Corbyn (I mean obviously the Tories will get ~ 9 million core vote but not the people that make a difference in the election though)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,324
    Tonight's Matt cartoon is very good.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,820
    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    edited March 5
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    Scott_P said:

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability.

    Like membership?
    Yes, Brexit is being walked back at a rapid pace.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,378
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    Agreed. Personally FoM have never been a concern of mine, and I'm sanguine on a long transition on the basis of better done right than quick (if they cannot be one and the same), but it sounds like a very hard sell, at the least with present governing arrangements.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,478
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434
    edited March 5

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,653
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    So BINO it is?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,181
    edited March 5
    Democrats up by 3pct in latest PA House district poll. A significant upset could be on the cards in a district Trump won by 20 points

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/376762-dem-holds-slim-lead-in-pa-special-election-poll
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,738

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    Sounds like a recipe for Corbyn disaster
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,087
    Jonathan said:

    His Moggesty.

    The Emperor Moggadon...... The Precious One!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,653
    edited March 5
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    Forever, probably.

    Something has to give; a worthwhile relationship with the continent we inhabit, leaving the EU, or having a say on the rules we follow.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,172
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    So BINO it is?
    Yes , I keep saying , the long good transition implementation period, looks nailed onto me.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
    No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    I am sure you are right, but why is that so?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,172
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    How can the conservative members object ?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,181
    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,817

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    I am sure you are right, but why is that so?
    Because they do not trust Labour not to renege and decide to keep us in.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,817

    Scott_P said:

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability.

    Like membership?
    Yes, Brexit is being walked back at a rapid pace.
    LOL. The Remaniac delusions are a sight to behold.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,339
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    The Tory members are irrelevant. For the MPs, if it's a choice of that or economic mayhem with an ensuing Corbyn government, they'll opt for the former. The romantic whimsies of Hannan, Mogg etc. will have to be indulged another day if everything's about to blow up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
    No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?
    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    How can the conservative members object ?
    Good question - I have no idea and I am a member
  • glwglw Posts: 4,232

    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
    No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?
    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.
    I am obviously going through a lucidity deficit. I was *contrasting* voting rights, in which we are +/- on a par with Malta and Latvia, with *influence* of which we used to have a great deal (and a great deal more than M and L), and pointing out that in the future (that's the stuff that hasn't happened yet), bare - and virtually worthless - voting rights are the best we can hope for, and scarcely worth having.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,653
    edited March 5
    glw said:

    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.
    Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
  • Pulpstar said:

    And another one chips in.

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability. The alternative is unthinkable, surely?

    It's in Ireland's interests to delay Brexit indefinitely I think. I mean it's in ours too - the Tories will be slaughtered if it happens though, the leave switchers won't bother heading to the polls whilst remainers all switch over to Corbyn (I mean obviously the Tories will get ~ 9 million core vote but not the people that make a difference in the election though)
    I suspect this is a load of rubbish. Perhaps the Whitehall Mandarins might be thinking this but it can't seriously be in the works.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    I am sure you are right, but why is that so?
    Because they do not trust Labour not to renege and decide to keep us in.
    Well to do that Labour would have to win the general election promising to do so. It doesn't suggest much confidence in the Brexit project if that is a real risk.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    So BINO it is?
    Not by 2022, by then we will have Brexited, the transition will have ended and we will be out of the single market with free movement having ended and probably out of the customs union too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    How can the conservative members object ?
    By engaging in Momentum like mass deselections but by then UKIP would probably be on 25% in the polls anyway if we were still in the single market with free movement
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,266
    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.
    Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.
    Funny, I don't remember seeing sunlit uplands on the ballot paper. ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    The Tory members are irrelevant. For the MPs, if it's a choice of that or economic mayhem with an ensuing Corbyn government, they'll opt for the former. The romantic whimsies of Hannan, Mogg etc. will have to be indulged another day if everything's about to blow up.
    If the Tory MPs vote to keep perpetual transition they will be signing their own death warrant, we could well see a Canada 1993 scenario with the Tories facing a Progressive Conservative style annihilation and UKIP or a new Farage/Banks led Party becoming the main party of the right.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.
    Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.
    Funny, I don't remember seeing sunlit uplands on the ballot paper. ;)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,653
    edited March 5
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.
    Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.
    Funny, I don't remember seeing sunlit uplands on the ballot paper. ;)
    But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?

    In any case I was talking about the Leave campaign, not the ballot paper.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
    No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?
    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.
    I am obviously going through a lucidity deficit. I was *contrasting* voting rights, in which we are +/- on a par with Malta and Latvia, with *influence* of which we used to have a great deal (and a great deal more than M and L), and pointing out that in the future (that's the stuff that hasn't happened yet), bare - and virtually worthless - voting rights are the best we can hope for, and scarcely worth having.
    That’s simply wrong though. How many MEPs do we have versus Malta? What is our QMV voting weight versus Malta?
  • glwglw Posts: 4,232
    FF43 said:

    But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?

    On the ballot paper? No, but there was plenty of that coming from the Remain camp. Yet it didn't frighten the electorate enough in the end.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,266
    glw said:

    FF43 said:

    But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?

    On the ballot paper? No, but there was plenty of that coming from the Remain camp. Yet it didn't frighten the electorate enough in the end.
    Burnt bridges and scorched earth? Positively utopian compared to the predictions of the Remain campaign. :p
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000

    And another one chips in.

    If we are truly heading toward a 5 year or 10 year transition, then we must surely negotiate some kind of institutional presence and voting ability. The alternative is unthinkable, surely?

    Never Gonna Give EU Up.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,180
    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    glw said:

    FF43 said:

    But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?

    On the ballot paper? No, but there was plenty of that coming from the Remain camp. Yet it didn't frighten the electorate enough in the end.
    Cameron suggested the Irish border would be moved and now that’s on the cards Brexiteers are losing it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,817

    glw said:

    FF43 said:

    But you did see burnt bridges and scorched earth on the ballot paper?

    On the ballot paper? No, but there was plenty of that coming from the Remain camp. Yet it didn't frighten the electorate enough in the end.
    Cameron suggested the Irish border would be moved and now that’s on the cards Brexiteers are losing it.
    No William, no matter how much you might wish it, it is not on the cards. Just as stopping Brexit is not on the cards, or joining the Euro or any of the other lunatic things you believe might happen.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,180

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
    No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?
    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.
    I am obviously going through a lucidity deficit. I was *contrasting* voting rights, in which we are +/- on a par with Malta and Latvia, with *influence* of which we used to have a great deal (and a great deal more than M and L), and pointing out that in the future (that's the stuff that hasn't happened yet), bare - and virtually worthless - voting rights are the best we can hope for, and scarcely worth having.
    That’s simply wrong though. How many MEPs do we have versus Malta? What is our QMV voting weight versus Malta?
    Would it matter if you had 30 personal votes if you were a Labour voter in a safe Tory seat?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT

    The problem with this is we have agreed to basically stay in the EU, including all payments and FOM, but without any voting rights whatsoever, during transition.

    That’s bearable for 18 months, maybe - but for 5 years?

    On paper, our voting rights were only ever level pegging with Malta and Latvia, I believe (plus a bit more in QMV votes for the additional population). What counts isn't voting rights but having Big Men near the levers of power by virtue of being, e.g., trade commissioners, which obv isn't going to happen. Any voting rights we do retain will be a fig leaf.
    Did I imagine Peter Mandelson happening?
    No, but you seem to have a modal verb issue. "isn't going to" = won't, future, sorta thing. Or do you foresee a similar appointment of a UK pol in a (future) transition period?
    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    To say that our influence as a member was on a par with Malta is simply absurd.
    I am obviously going through a lucidity deficit. I was *contrasting* voting rights, in which we are +/- on a par with Malta and Latvia, with *influence* of which we used to have a great deal (and a great deal more than M and L), and pointing out that in the future (that's the stuff that hasn't happened yet), bare - and virtually worthless - voting rights are the best we can hope for, and scarcely worth having.
    That’s simply wrong though. How many MEPs do we have versus Malta? What is our QMV voting weight versus Malta?
    Jesus Christ on a bike, I expressly reserved the QMV/population point in my last post but one. My point was purely that any rights which we retain *during a future transitional period* will be next to worthless. I did not say that they were worthless when we were full members. Had I thought that, I would probably have voted Leave. I didn't, so I didn't. Fin.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    Here’s Steve Baker on RT predicting that the collapse of our system is only a matter of time.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,180
    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,181
    edited March 5
    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    My point is that as long as we are in a transitioon, rejoining the EU will be relatively simple as we’ll be bound to most of their rules. And in 10 years the demographics will shifted in favour of Remain/Rejoin to the point that one of the major parties offers sees it advantageous to offer a referendum in their manifesto.

    In the case of the European bodies, we’ll be leaving and immediately rejoining as an Associate member to most of them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    That attack line will not work.

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    edited March 5
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998
    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.
    When we joined the EU, we had a seven year transition period as we moved from Commonwealth preference to the EEC customs union. Really, we only became full EEC members in 1980.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,180

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    glw said:

    Transition = zero representation in anything. It’s political purgatory.

    Surely that's an argument for a rapid or better still no transition? You are starting to make sense at last.
    Maybe if Leave had won 70/30 on a clear understanding of lean times ahead. It actually won 52/48 on the promise of sunlit uplands. Leave needs to deliver a Brexit that is at least tolerable. There isn't a mandate for burnt bridges and scorched earth.
    Funny, I don't remember seeing sunlit uplands on the ballot paper. ;)
    On the other hand Remain promised a year long recession, which depressed the Leave vote share, so it's swings and roundabouts.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.
    When we joined the EU, we had a seven year transition period as we moved from Commonwealth preference to the EEC customs union. Really, we only became full EEC members in 1980.
    The Thatcher revolution was really the European revolution. Discuss.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,266

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The next general election will be at most 6 years after the referendum, given on average the age at which you were more likely to vote Leave than Remain was 45 the vast majority of Leave voters will still be around in 2022 and they make up the vast majority of current Tory voters
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,180

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither a majority of Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    I am sure you are right, but why is that so?
    Because they do not trust Labour not to renege and decide to keep us in.
    Well to do that Labour would have to win the general election promising to do so. It doesn't suggest much confidence in the Brexit project if that is a real risk.
    It would be more a lack of confidence in a Tory party that had let them down and a lack of confidence in the democratic credentials of Labour.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,180
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.
    When we joined the EU, we had a seven year transition period as we moved from Commonwealth preference to the EEC customs union. Really, we only became full EEC members in 1980.
    So five years after the referendum result?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,180

    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    That attack line will not work.

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/
    I wouldn't want any of those useful idiots as Prime Minister either.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
    Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    That attack line will not work.

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/
    I wouldn't want any of those useful idiots as Prime Minister either.
    You'll upset Robert if you keep on calling Kwasi Kwarteng an idiot.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,180

    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    Here’s Steve Baker on RT predicting that the collapse of our system is only a matter of time.
    Is Steve Baker a candidate for leading the UK government?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,243

    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    That attack line will not work.

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/
    I wouldn't want any of those useful idiots as Prime Minister either.
    You'll upset Robert if you keep on calling Kwasi Kwarteng an idiot.
    Future PM right there. He needs a big promotion.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,009
    edited March 5
    Remainers getting terribly excited about the chances of us spending a decade in EU purgatory I see? :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,378

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    All things are possible but there seems nothing to base that on either, plus unless something big happens well in advance of the next election, the option on the table at it will be rejoin at some point, not remain, which has been assumed to be a harder sell.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    MaxPB said:

    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    That attack line will not work.

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/
    I wouldn't want any of those useful idiots as Prime Minister either.
    You'll upset Robert if you keep on calling Kwasi Kwarteng an idiot.
    Future PM right there. He needs a big promotion.
    He’s already the CFO.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,653
    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    All things are possible but there seems nothing to base that on either, plus unless something big happens well in advance of the next election, the option on the table at it will be rejoin at some point, not remain, which has been assumed to be a harder sell.
    Agreed, but I was making the point in response to a question about transition being extended beyond the next GE.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201
    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    Surely extending article 50 is more logical than an open ended transition.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,992
    Oh Jacob Rees-Mogg.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Agreed. Any PB-leavers still thinking we will get a beneficial FTA with the US this side of 2025?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,156
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
    Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.
    18-29 year olds were 61% Remain, in 1975.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,133
    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,266

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
    Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.
    18-29 year olds were 61% Remain, in 1975.
    Interesting: so the younger generation in '75 were more sceptical than the population as a whole.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,009
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
    Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.
    18-29 year olds were 61% Remain, in 1975.
    And they were all the "Boomers For Brexit" this time! :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    RobD said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.

    So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867

    RobD said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.

    So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.
    Is that a promise?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,133

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    Brexit is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcome
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    No. They have made that abundantly clear many times.

    But Labour members do and they're the ones that count.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,182
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
    Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.
    I was 24 in 1973 and I was an enthusiastic joiner. I changed my mind over the years.

    Good evening, everyone.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,133

    RobD said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.

    So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.
    Sorry - I was not around much yesterday so I must have missed it.

    If you appoint me a moderator I promise to delete every Brexit related post on non-Brexit days. I will do it for free as long as I can listen to the screams of outrage :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.

    So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.
    Is that a promise?
    Well I might have to do a refresher thread on it for the next Tory leadership contest given the Tories using a form of quasi Alternative Vote to elect their leader.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,266

    RobD said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    I did a thread yesterday that mentioned AV but no one discussed that aspect of the thread.

    So no more threads on the alternative vote system from me going forward.
    :o I must be going blind in my old age.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,133
    RobD said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    we are having an audio-visual thread? Interesting ....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,009
    Not much comment here or elsewhere about the Italian General election?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,182

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    I lurk a lot more than I post and I haven't read much about shoes, lately, either.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Agreed. Any PB-leavers still thinking we will get a beneficial FTA with the US this side of 2025?

    Trade deals with any large economy will be on terms it dictates. We are learning that with both the EU and the US. China and Japan would be the same. Leaving the CU, and putting at risk the trade flows and supply lines it enables, for trade agreements with second and third tier economies 10 years down the line is nonsensical.

This discussion has been closed.