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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggy still leads Jez in the “PM after TMay” betting

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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    GIN1138 said:

    Not much comment here or elsewhere about the Italian General election?


    It was a decisive as the German one.

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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    edited March 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What would be the political price of extending transition ? At the moment, we leave the EU in March 2019 (except we don't really) and how long will people tolerate the limbo of being in the club with no say, continued Freedom of Movement and having to obey EU laws ?

    Sounds like a political death warrant.

    One thing is for certain, neither Tory MPs nor Tory members will allow the transition period to extend up to 2022, it has to have ended by the time of the next general election
    You hope
    No, I know. It would be political suicide for the Tory Party to go into the next general election with 70% of its voters having voted Leave with the UK still in the EU in all but name.

    UKIP would not believe their luck and Farage would come back to lead them in an instant
    The demographic will have changed quite a lot by the next election compared with the EU-Ref. Now, I know we are always told people become more conservative (and Conservative) as they age, and that seems probable, else Conservatism would have died out years ago... But, is there any evidence that, or reason why, people might become more Euro-sceptic?

    No. By the time of the next election, even if nobody who voted in June 2016 has changed their mind, there will be a majority for Remain imho.
    The cohort who voted in both the 1973 and 2016 EU referendum got more eurosceptic.
    Conceivably the older people in 73 voted join, and the youngsters voted out.
    18-29 year olds were 61% Remain, in 1975.
    Interesting: so the younger generation in '75 were more sceptical than the population as a whole.
    That's how I remember it. It was the squares in the form of the Conservatives that took us in, with backing from the media and big business. On top of that there were a lot of older people who remembered the war who were very pro-European but at the time weren't very cool. Voting out was the radical and trendy thing to do. I'm surprised it was as high as 61% to be honest.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Crickey, bit of a brave call out in france...they might have to claim political asylum here!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5464131/French-campaign-TV-channels-English-films-undubbed.html
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    rcs1000 said:


    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    That seems a fair likelihood. Allows us to gradually untangle ourselves piece by piece, no massive cliff edges.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.

    Not just the trade war. As predicted by Project Fear, the US also sees Brexit as an opportunity to make life tougher for UK-based airlines.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2018

    twitter.com/BenedictSpence/status/970731402357608448

    Was he one of the twats that raided the cafe the other week?

    I am going to guess he also thinks jezzas support of some really dodgy individuals is ok.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)
    I thought we wanted to stay in Erasmus, and the ESA is not an EU body.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @rcs1000

    FPT Re Swiss low skilled immigration

    I was in Lugano the other day. Lots of problems locally - the average low skilled wage there is Eur 5000 per month (due to cost of living)

    Real problem with Italians driving in each morning and charging Eur 3000 per month (better than the Eur 2000 they get at home) - economically worthwhile with their lower cost of living.

    But it doesn’t show up in the immigration stats
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    He's quickly hidden his profile on twitter, unsurprisingly.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    AnneJGP said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    I lurk a lot more than I post and I haven't read much about shoes, lately, either.
    The shoes died out when Plato went tweet-happy and then got kicked off. She and I used to have quite a few shoe and kitchen threads including one about what to do with spare vegetables. As I recall, that completely took over for the day.

    I need some more shoes and I was looking at some lovely soft suede ankle boots yesterday. They were (supposedly) my size but there was no zipper on them and it was very difficult to get my foot round the turn from the leg into the boot so I gave up. Pity - they were really lovely otherwise with a 3" heel.

    *sigh!*
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    twitter.com/BenedictSpence/status/970731402357608448

    Was he one of the twats that raided the cafe the other week?
    Journalist at The Independent.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,213
    rpjs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)
    I thought we wanted to stay in Erasmus, and the ESA is not an EU body.
    There are non-EU states in Erasmus
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,213

    RobD said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    When's the next great AV thread? That'll make the Brexit discussions seem positively tame :D
    we are having an audio-visual thread? Interesting ....
    Adult Videos, surely :innocent:
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2018

    twitter.com/BenedictSpence/status/970731402357608448

    Was he one of the twats that raided the cafe the other week?
    Journalist at The Independent.
    What mr Churchill was a racist war criminal guy? Really?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    Well for everyone really.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,213

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    The EU is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcome
    corrected it for you :innocent:
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    There's a good - plausible - piece on the economic impact on American jobs from the steel tariffs: http://tradepartnership.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/232EmploymentPolicyBrief.pdf
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    He's not wrong about Churchill though. He was certainly racist (although not notably so by the standards of his day) and his own autobiography recounts how he was in possession of dum-dum bullets when captured by the Boers which could have resulted in his being shot as a war criminal; he had to use sleight of hand to pretend to "find" them on the ground and present them to his captor (who if memory serves turned out to be Smuts).
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    HistorianHistorian Posts: 23
    How's Mogg going to get through the Tory MP filtering process and get into final two to be put to members?

    Do they know about the Tory leadership election process before placing their bets?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Why risk Airbus leaving the UK to secure a trade deal with the Philippines some time in the mid-20s?
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/05/airbus-may-leave-uk-unless-there-is-urgent-clarity-on-brexit-trade
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    twitter.com/BenedictSpence/status/970731402357608448

    Was he one of the twats that raided the cafe the other week?
    Journalist at The Independent.
    What mr Churchill was a racist war criminal guy? Really?
    Yup
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,213

    Elliot said:

    So a certain Eurasian power is "allegedly" back to its old habit of poisoning people in the UK. Do Labour MPs really want to have as Prime Minister someone who was a paid employee of the Kremlin's propaganda TV?

    Here’s Steve Baker on RT predicting that the collapse of our system is only a matter of time.
    ://youtu.be/AljEp0XDRvc
    RT? :lol:
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    rpjs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)
    I thought we wanted to stay in Erasmus, and the ESA is not an EU body.
    If you look at the money the Norwegians pay, more than half is for the membership of EU administered bodies, and they list Erasmus, the EMA, Gallileo, and the ESA as part of their EU contributions.
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    Scott_P said:
    A pun so awesome you think I must have written it.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    The EU is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcome
    corrected it for you :innocent:
    Sunil - Brexit encompasses both sides. I no longer care. It is quite evident that reality will need to teach the lessons to be learned.
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    Following on from this afternoon's discussion.

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/970711638197358594
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Scott_P said:
    In a "war" between Trump and Juncker I know where my money's going...
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    Next time the police complain they are under resourced remember they have enough resources to send 30 coppers to a tree cutting.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    In a "war" between Trump and Juncker I know where my money's going...
    Into Swiss Francs?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2018

    twitter.com/BenedictSpence/status/970731402357608448

    Was he one of the twats that raided the cafe the other week?
    Journalist at The Independent.
    What mr Churchill was a racist war criminal guy? Really?
    Yup
    I know it’s not a really a proper newspaper anymore, but I presumed they didn’t employ total numpties.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    In a "war" between Trump and Juncker I know where my money's going...
    Largely on tariffs!
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    I never really understood the wailing about appearing on RT, beyond propaganda purposes to condemn individuals for appearing on there is there actually a practical complaint?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    Scott_P said:
    Great headline :)

    If I were the EU, I would have probably just ignored the steel/aluminium provocation, especially as the impact of steel and aluminium tariffs will be to raise the cost of making cars in the US, benefiting German car makers.

    But I think there is a feeling, rightly or wrongly, that ignoring institutional structures and agreements has to have consequences.

    I find it very interesting that while the Canadians, the Koreans, the Mexicans and the EU have all cried blue murder over these tariffs, the Chinese have been silent. I wouldn't be surprised if we were to see a high profile cancellation of a Chinese Boeing order in the next 48 hours. That would very much be their style.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    In a "war" between Trump and Juncker I know where my money's going...
    My money would be on Juncker. And I'd back him in size. I think Juncker's pissedness, cussedness, and the fact that he's largely insulated from blowback from bad decisions, means he's more able to weather a storm than Trump.

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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    In a "war" between Trump and Juncker I know where my money's going...
    My money would be on Juncker. And I'd back him in size. I think Juncker's pissedness, cussedness, and the fact that he's largely insulated from blowback from bad decisions, means he's more able to weather a storm than Trump.

    He's also not, in the words of Rex Tillerson, "a ####ing moron".
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    Historian said:

    How's Mogg going to get through the Tory MP filtering process and get into final two to be put to members?

    Do they know about the Tory leadership election process before placing their bets?

    No idea. Lay the favourite, lay the second favourite.
    Moggy may get most of his ERG fanboys, but that won't be enough.
    For JC to win relies on one of 2 equally improbable scenarios. Loss of DUP support or mass defections from the Tory Party,
    OR, allowing May to fight and lose the next GE.
    Not sure which one of those is more inconceivable!
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    AnneJGP said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    I lurk a lot more than I post and I haven't read much about shoes, lately, either.
    The shoes died out when Plato went tweet-happy and then got kicked off. She and I used to have quite a few shoe and kitchen threads including one about what to do with spare vegetables. As I recall, that completely took over for the day.

    I need some more shoes and I was looking at some lovely soft suede ankle boots yesterday. They were (supposedly) my size but there was no zipper on them and it was very difficult to get my foot round the turn from the leg into the boot so I gave up. Pity - they were really lovely otherwise with a 3" heel.

    *sigh!*
    Squirting talcum powder into the boot will solve that problem if it's genuinely the right size
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2018
    BBC pay: 200 staff urge bosses to make public all salaries and benefits

    Almost 250 BBC staff including stars such as Victoria Derbyshire, Mariella Frostrup, Naga Munchetty and Dan Snow have challenged the corporation to publish individual salaries and benefits of staff if it is serious about tackling pay inequality at the corporation.

    The group, which comprise on- and off-screen staff from across the BBC, have co-signed an open letter calling on the BBC director general, Tony Hall, to deliver on his promise to make the corporation the “most transparent organisation when it comes to pay”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/mar/05/bbc-pay-200-staff-urge-make-public-all-salaries-benefits-open-letter
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Great headline :)

    If I were the EU, I would have probably just ignored the steel/aluminium provocation, especially as the impact of steel and aluminium tariffs will be to raise the cost of making cars in the US, benefiting German car makers.

    But I think there is a feeling, rightly or wrongly, that ignoring institutional structures and agreements has to have consequences.

    I find it very interesting that while the Canadians, the Koreans, the Mexicans and the EU have all cried blue murder over these tariffs, the Chinese have been silent. I wouldn't be surprised if we were to see a high profile cancellation of a Chinese Boeing order in the next 48 hours. That would very much be their style.
    It's in the Chinese interest for them to not be part of the media narrative. Americans might be sympathetic to Europeans and Canadians but they would probably back Trump over the Chinese.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2018
    Choosing between backing Trump or Junker...its like Alien vs Predator Noddy vs Father Jack to operate a nuclear power station.
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    I never really understood the wailing about appearing on RT, beyond propaganda purposes to condemn individuals for appearing on there is there actually a practical complaint?

    Actively taking money from a horrific regime to participate in their propaganda war against the West?
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Ishmael_Z said:

    AnneJGP said:

    I thought there was some hope when we started discussing sensible topics like food, health and coffee machines.

    Now it is back to the same old trench warfare...

    Come on Mike - get those Brexit-free days arranged.

    I lurk a lot more than I post and I haven't read much about shoes, lately, either.
    The shoes died out when Plato went tweet-happy and then got kicked off. She and I used to have quite a few shoe and kitchen threads including one about what to do with spare vegetables. As I recall, that completely took over for the day.

    I need some more shoes and I was looking at some lovely soft suede ankle boots yesterday. They were (supposedly) my size but there was no zipper on them and it was very difficult to get my foot round the turn from the leg into the boot so I gave up. Pity - they were really lovely otherwise with a 3" heel.

    *sigh!*
    Squirting talcum powder into the boot will solve that problem if it's genuinely the right size
    Thanks for the suggestion, but it has two flaws:

    a) The boot size may well be wrong. There appears to be considerable leeway in sizing

    and

    b) The shop would probably take it amiss if I started squirting talc into their stock

    We also need to consider that

    c) I had no talc with me, and

    d) Talc is increasingly being linked with rashes and such as an irritant.

    Finally

    e) White talc, on dark wine suede. Are you mad? I would have white spots all over my boots

    :D:D:+1:
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    edited March 2018

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Agreed. Any PB-leavers still thinking we will get a beneficial FTA with the US this side of 2025?

    Trade deals with any large economy will be on terms it dictates. We are learning that with both the EU and the US. China and Japan would be the same. Leaving the CU, and putting at risk the trade flows and supply lines it enables, for trade agreements with second and third tier economies 10 years down the line is nonsensical.

    That must be why the ECJ has permanent jurisdiction over EU citizens in the UK... Once again, your narrative doesn't survive basic contact with reality.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.
    How can you possibly make a statement like that. You simply do not know. Looks a bit like wishful thinking on your part
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Elliot said:

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Agreed. Any PB-leavers still thinking we will get a beneficial FTA with the US this side of 2025?

    Trade deals with any large economy will be on terms it dictates. We are learning that with both the EU and the US. China and Japan would be the same. Leaving the CU, and putting at risk the trade flows and supply lines it enables, for trade agreements with second and third tier economies 10 years down the line is nonsensical.

    That must be why the ECJ has permanent jurisdiction over EU citizens in the UK... Once again, your narrative doesn't survive basic contact with reality.

    That makes no sense. Just like leaving the Customs Union.

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    Brexit is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcome
    The EU is the religion. Brexit is the atheists finally striking back and showing what a load of superstitious bollocks it really is.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    twitter.com/BenedictSpence/status/970731402357608448

    Was he one of the twats that raided the cafe the other week?
    Journalist at The Independent.
    What mr Churchill was a racist war criminal guy? Really?
    Churchill's handling of the Bengal famine was a disgrace.

    BUT he did win us the war.

    The only people who have a problem are those that want everyone in life to be some perfect hero or villain. They never are.
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    Awb683Awb683 Posts: 80
    Good for Jacob!!
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    A 10 year transition would destroy Leavers' support for the Tories. A staggered 5 could work.
    How can you possibly make a statement like that. You simply do not know. Looks a bit like wishful thinking on your part
    By talking to Leavers, which seems to be beyond the reach of most Remainers. Why don't you ask the Leavers on this very website how happy they would be with still being effectively in the EU more than twelve years after the referendum?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645

    twitter.com/BenedictSpence/status/970731402357608448

    Was he one of the twats that raided the cafe the other week?
    Journalist at The Independent.
    What mr Churchill was a racist war criminal guy? Really?
    Churchill's handling of the Bengal famine was a disgrace.

    BUT he did win us the war.

    The only people who have a problem are those that want everyone in life to be some perfect hero or villain. They never are.
    Even saints weren't always saints after all.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    twitter.com/BenedictSpence/status/970731402357608448

    Was he one of the twats that raided the cafe the other week?
    Journalist at The Independent.
    What mr Churchill was a racist war criminal guy? Really?
    Churchill's handling of the Bengal famine was a disgrace.

    BUT he did win us the war.

    The only people who have a problem are those that want everyone in life to be some perfect hero or villain. They never are.
    Blockquote problem...I wasn’t asking if he was, I was asking if a muppet on twitter who called him this really worked for the independent.
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    Oooh Senate special election in Mississippi


    https://twitter.com/DanielStrauss4/status/970776391288541190
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Elliot said:

    I never really understood the wailing about appearing on RT, beyond propaganda purposes to condemn individuals for appearing on there is there actually a practical complaint?

    Actively taking money from a horrific regime to participate in their propaganda war against the West?

    I’ll just leave this here:

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/

    Not sure Corbyn ever took money from Russia Today. It was the Iranians who paid him to host a show that gave a voice to anti-Semites and other pond life.
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    twitter.com/BenedictSpence/status/970731402357608448

    Was he one of the twats that raided the cafe the other week?
    Journalist at The Independent.
    What mr Churchill was a racist war criminal guy? Really?
    Churchill's handling of the Bengal famine was a disgrace.

    BUT he did win us the war.

    The only people who have a problem are those that want everyone in life to be some perfect hero or villain. They never are.
    You can certainly criticise much of Churchill's views on race, imperialism and war conduct, but the Bengal Famine attack is most unfair.

    https://winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu/did-churchill-cause-the-bengal-famine/
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:

    I never really understood the wailing about appearing on RT, beyond propaganda purposes to condemn individuals for appearing on there is there actually a practical complaint?

    Actively taking money from a horrific regime to participate in their propaganda war against the West?

    I’ll just leave this here:

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/

    Not sure Corbyn ever took money from Russia Today. It was the Iranians who paid him to host a show that gave a voice to anti-Semites and other pond life.
    Very tiresome whataboutism given none of those would be running our foreign policy.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    Brexit is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcome
    The EU is the religion. Brexit is the atheists finally striking back and showing what a load of superstitious bollocks it really is.
    You could make the point without the swearing.

    Good night everyone.
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    Assuming the Mississippi GOP candidate is no Roy Moore it should be an easy GOP hold?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    edited March 2018
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.
    For about the billionth time, it isn't all about Lattes.

    Many, many millions of people will be happy to end free movement, gain control of our immigration policy, regain our seat at the WTO and be able to vary our VAT levels. More still will be glad to regain the democratic rights over domestic policy that British politicians foolishly, and in my view, negligently, surrendered. Even more will be pleased to see us stop contributing several billion annually (including 75% of our customs duties charged) for the administration of a bureaucracy and political project that very few in this country buy into.

    These are concrete gains that will come from Brexit.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    Assuming the Mississippi GOP candidate is no Roy Moore it should be an easy GOP hold?

    It may now be a special election in November, which would make it even harder for the Dems to target.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Scott_P said:
    A pun so awesome you think I must have written it.
    Nope, that never crossed my mind.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    edited March 2018

    Assuming the Mississippi GOP candidate is no Roy Moore it should be an easy GOP hold?

    Assuming plays a pivotal role in that sentence, given what we know of GOP Primary voters in that region.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    edited March 2018

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    Brexit is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcome
    The EU is the religion. Brexit is the atheists finally striking back and showing what a load of superstitious bollocks it really is.
    You could make the point without the swearing.
    Come now, we were allowed to use the word bollocks (and damn for that matter) in creative writing assignments in primary school, so it is pretty darn mild as these things go.

    It does seem as though 'shit' is increasingly acceptable as a mild curse if network television in the USA is anything to go by.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    I never really understood the wailing about appearing on RT, beyond propaganda purposes to condemn individuals for appearing on there is there actually a practical complaint?

    Actively taking money from a horrific regime to participate in their propaganda war against the West?

    I’ll just leave this here:

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/

    Not sure Corbyn ever took money from Russia Today. It was the Iranians who paid him to host a show that gave a voice to anti-Semites and other pond life.
    Very tiresome whataboutism given none of those would be running our foreign policy.

    It’s either OK to take money from RT or it’s not. I’m on the Not side.

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.
    For about the billionth time, it isn't all about Lattes.

    Many, many millions of people will be happy to end free movement, gain control of our immigration policy, regain our seat at the WTO and be able to vary our VAT levels. More still will be glad to regain the democratic rights over domestic policy that British politicians foolishly, and in my view, negligently, surrendered. Even more will be pleased to see us stop contributing several billion annually (including 75% of our customs duties charged) for the administration of a bureaucracy and political project that very few in this country buy into.

    These are concrete gains that will come from Brexit.
    None of them will improve anyone's life one iota - especially when set against the disruption and adverse economic impact which leaving is going to cause. We are opting out of a huge single market just as a trade war is kicking off. Perfect!
  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Elliot said:

    I never really understood the wailing about appearing on RT, beyond propaganda purposes to condemn individuals for appearing on there is there actually a practical complaint?

    Actively taking money from a horrific regime to participate in their propaganda war against the West?
    What about those who have taken money from Murdoch? Fox News or some of the more extreme right wing US media in their propaganda war taken to any one, organisation or country which criticises or takes an action that they take to be inimical to the US?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.
    For about the billionth time, it isn't all about Lattes.

    Many, many millions of people will be happy to end free movement, gain control of our immigration policy, regain our seat at the WTO and be able to vary our VAT levels. More still will be glad to regain the democratic rights over domestic policy that British politicians foolishly, and in my view, negligently, surrendered. Even more will be pleased to see us stop contributing several billion annually (including 75% of our customs duties charged) for the administration of a bureaucracy and political project that very few in this country buy into.

    These are concrete gains that will come from Brexit.

    You really think millions of people would be happy to sacrifice supply chains, trade flows and well paid jobs so that the UK could be a full member state of the WTO? Not sure what that’s got to do with lattes.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    dixiedean said:

    Assuming the Mississippi GOP candidate is no Roy Moore it should be an easy GOP hold?

    Assuming plays a pivotal role in that sentence, given what we know of GOP Primary voters in that region.
    Although Moore did seem a spectacularly bad candidate and still only just lost, so it'd be hard to match him!
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.
    For about the billionth time, it isn't all about Lattes.

    Many, many millions of people will be happy to end free movement, gain control of our immigration policy, regain our seat at the WTO and be able to vary our VAT levels. More still will be glad to regain the democratic rights over domestic policy that British politicians foolishly, and in my view, negligently, surrendered. Even more will be pleased to see us stop contributing several billion annually (including 75% of our customs duties charged) for the administration of a bureaucracy and political project that very few in this country buy into.

    These are concrete gains that will come from Brexit.
    None of them will improve anyone's life one iota - especially when set against the disruption and adverse economic impact which leaving is going to cause. We are opting out of a huge single market just as a trade war is kicking off. Perfect!
    Condescension alert.

    The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country.

    Economic outcomes will be FAR more influenced by domestic policy (and the economic behaviour of our people) than by our leaving the EU.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Rhode Island residents will have to pay a $20 fee to access sexually explicit content online if a recently introduced bill passes the General Assembly this session.

    http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20180302/ri-bill-would-impose-fee-for-accessing-online-porn
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    OchEye said:

    Elliot said:

    I never really understood the wailing about appearing on RT, beyond propaganda purposes to condemn individuals for appearing on there is there actually a practical complaint?

    Actively taking money from a horrific regime to participate in their propaganda war against the West?
    What about those who have taken money from Murdoch? Fox News or some of the more extreme right wing US media in their propaganda war taken to any one, organisation or country which criticises or takes an action that they take to be inimical to the US?
    Are any of those running brutal dictatorships that murder people on Britain's streets? So much of the left has lost any sense of principle over democracy and human rights in their bitter partisanship. The once great Labour movement has descended into the false equivalency of sixth form student unions.
  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.
    For about the billionth time, it isn't all about Lattes.

    Many, many millions of people will be happy to end free movement, gain control of our immigration policy, regain our seat at the WTO and be able to vary our VAT levels. More still will be glad to regain the democratic rights over domestic policy that British politicians foolishly, and in my view, negligently, surrendered. Even more will be pleased to see us stop contributing several billion annually (including 75% of our customs duties charged) for the administration of a bureaucracy and political project that very few in this country buy into.

    These are concrete gains that will come from Brexit.
    None of them will improve anyone's life one iota - especially when set against the disruption and adverse economic impact which leaving is going to cause. We are opting out of a huge single market just as a trade war is kicking off. Perfect!
    To be honest I do not think it makes any difference. Indeed in time it may help the UK but I am not counting on that. Trump is using it to hit back over Bombadier but of course he hurts Canada more than anyone, but tonight has said he will review the tariffs with Canada as part of a new trade agreement
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.
    For about the billionth time, it isn't all about Lattes.

    Many, many millions of people will be happy to end free movement, gain control of our immigration policy, regain our seat at the WTO and be able to vary our VAT levels. More still will be glad to regain the democratic rights over domestic policy that British politicians foolishly, and in my view, negligently, surrendered. Even more will be pleased to see us stop contributing several billion annually (including 75% of our customs duties charged) for the administration of a bureaucracy and political project that very few in this country buy into.

    These are concrete gains that will come from Brexit.
    None of them will improve anyone's life one iota - especially when set against the disruption and adverse economic impact which leaving is going to cause. We are opting out of a huge single market just as a trade war is kicking off. Perfect!
    Condescension alert.

    The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country.

    Economic outcomes will be FAR more influenced by domestic policy (and the economic behaviour of our people) than by our leaving the EU.
    "The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country."

    How exactly?
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    Surely extending article 50 is more logical than an open ended transition.

    Oooh Senate special election in Mississippi


    https://twitter.com/DanielStrauss4/status/970776391288541190

    Sadly it looks like it the election will just be held as part of the midterms
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    kle4 said:

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    Brexit is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcome
    The EU is the religion. Brexit is the atheists finally striking back and showing what a load of superstitious bollocks it really is.
    You could make the point without the swearing.
    Come now, we were allowed to use the word bollocks (and damn for that matter) in creative writing assignments in primary school, so it is pretty darn mild as these things go.

    It does seem as though 'shit' is increasingly acceptable as a mild curse if network television in the USA is anything to go by.
    Given the gradual reduction in the power of swear words to offend, will be ever need a stronger replacement for the c-word I wonder? If so, what would be a suitable candidate?
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    edited March 2018

    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    I never really understood the wailing about appearing on RT, beyond propaganda purposes to condemn individuals for appearing on there is there actually a practical complaint?

    Actively taking money from a horrific regime to participate in their propaganda war against the West?

    I’ll just leave this here:

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/

    Not sure Corbyn ever took money from Russia Today. It was the Iranians who paid him to host a show that gave a voice to anti-Semites and other pond life.
    Very tiresome whataboutism given none of those would be running our foreign policy.

    It’s either OK to take money from RT or it’s not. I’m on the Not side.

    I agree and already criticised them as useful idiots downthread. What is pathetic is that you think "well some of them did it too" means we can shrug off the actions of a potential Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Jeremy Corbyn has been thick as thieves with some horrific regimes, including ones that have innocent civilians murdered for protesting for democracy. But Theresa May is wrong on customs checks, so they're both as bad as each other, right?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.
    For about the billionth time, it isn't all about Lattes.

    Many, many millions of people will be happy to end free movement, gain control of our immigration policy, regain our seat at the WTO and be able to vary our VAT levels. More still will be glad to regain the democratic rights over domestic policy that British politicians foolishly

    These are concrete gains that will come from Brexit.
    None of them will improve anyone's life one iota - especially when set against the disruption and adverse economic impact which leaving is going to cause. We are opting out of a huge single market just as a trade war is kicking off. Perfect!
    Condescension alert.

    The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country.

    Economic outcomes will be FAR more influenced by domestic policy (and the economic behaviour of our people) than by our leaving the EU.
    "The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country."

    How exactly?
    Go you are so right - self determination is so overrated - cancel elections and make Corbyn the President.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572

    PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Rhode Island residents will have to pay a $20 fee to access sexually explicit content online if a recently introduced bill passes the General Assembly this session.

    http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20180302/ri-bill-would-impose-fee-for-accessing-online-porn

    Good idea - think how much could be raised in the UK if we followed a similar approach!
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    Brexit is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcome
    The EU is the religion. Brexit is the atheists finally striking back and showing what a load of superstitious bollocks it really is.
    You could make the point without the swearing.
    Come now, we were allowed to use the word bollocks (and damn for that matter) in creative writing assignments in primary school, so it is pretty darn mild as these things go.

    It does seem as though 'shit' is increasingly acceptable as a mild curse if network television in the USA is anything to go by.
    Given the gradual reduction in the power of swear words to offend, will be ever need a stronger replacement for the c-word I wonder? If so, what would be a suitable candidate?
    'Dash it' as my dear late Father would say
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the transition is really 5-10 years long then the most likely way it will end is the UK rejoining the EU

    Really?

    I think that's extremely unlikely.

    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.
    For about the billionth time, it isn't all about Lattes.

    Many, many millions of the administration of a bureaucracy and political project that very few in this country buy into.

    These are concrete gains that will come from Brexit.
    None of them will improve anyone's life one iota - especially when set against the disruption and adverse economic impact which leaving is going to cause. We are opting out of a huge single market just as a trade war is kicking off. Perfect!
    Condescension alert.

    The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country.

    Economic outcomes will be FAR more influenced by domestic policy (and the economic behaviour of our people) than by our leaving the EU.

    Domestic policy and economic behaviours will be directly influenced by our leaving the EU. So, for example, if we crash out of the Customs Union and that leads to a reduction in the number of well-paid manufacturing jobs in certain parts of the country, that will have a negative effect on the lical economies affected - which will then feed into a wide range of issues over a longer term - see, for example, the long term consequences of deindustrialisation in many parts of the UK.

  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    kle4 said:

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    Brexit is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcome
    The EU is the religion. Brexit is the atheists finally striking back and showing what a load of superstitious bollocks it really is.
    You could make the point without the swearing.
    Come now, we were allowed to use the word bollocks (and damn for that matter) in creative writing assignments in primary school, so it is pretty darn mild as these things go.

    It does seem as though 'shit' is increasingly acceptable as a mild curse if network television in the USA is anything to go by.
    Given the gradual reduction in the power of swear words to offend, will be ever need a stronger replacement for the c-word I wonder? If so, what would be a suitable candidate?
    'Dash it' as my dear late Father would say
    Santorum?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924

    PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Rhode Island residents will have to pay a $20 fee to access sexually explicit content online if a recently introduced bill passes the General Assembly this session.

    http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20180302/ri-bill-would-impose-fee-for-accessing-online-porn

    $20! Most porn sites only charge $5-10.

    Or so TSE told me.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    None of them will improve anyone's life one iota - especially when set against the disruption and adverse economic impact which leaving is going to cause. We are opting out of a huge single market just as a trade war is kicking off. Perfect!
    Condescension alert.

    The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country.

    Economic outcomes will be FAR more influenced by domestic policy (and the economic behaviour of our people) than by our leaving the EU.
    "The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country."

    How exactly?
    You really need me to explain?

    Legislate freely on domestic policy: have laws that suit our people
    Control our immigration policy: reduce downward pressure on wages, reduce demand for public services, savings made by not have to provide welfare entitlement for newly arrived EU citizens
    Vary our sales tax: reduce tax on certain necessities, e.g. Tampons, the ability to change the way we tax consumption entirely
    Construct a tariff schedule for our people: encourage the import of goods that we need to reduce prices for consumers

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    I never really understood the wailing about appearing on RT, beyond propaganda purposes to condemn individuals for appearing on there is there actually a practical complaint?

    Actively taking money from a horrific regime to participate in their propaganda war against the West?

    I’ll just leave this here:

    https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/10/tory-mps-have-taken-much-money-from-russia-today-than-labour-mps/

    Not sure Corbyn ever took money from Russia Today. It was the Iranians who paid him to host a show that gave a voice to anti-Semites and other pond life.
    Very tiresome whataboutism given none of those would be running our foreign policy.

    It’s either OK to take money from RT or it’s not. I’m on the Not side.

    I agree and already criticised them as useful idiots downthread. What is pathetic is that you think "well some of them did it too" means we can shrug off the actions of a potential Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Jeremy Corbyn has been thick as thieves with some horrific regimes, including ones that have innocent civilians murdered for protesting for democracy. But Theresa May is wrong on customs checks, so they're both as bad as each other, right?

    I am not shrugging off Corbyn’s actions. I think they make him unelectable.

  • Options

    PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Rhode Island residents will have to pay a $20 fee to access sexually explicit content online if a recently introduced bill passes the General Assembly this session.

    http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20180302/ri-bill-would-impose-fee-for-accessing-online-porn

    Good idea - think how much could be raised in the UK if we followed a similar approach!
    I have no idea Ben - you seem to think it would be a lot, but more likely the money raised by the hackers obtaining the subscribers details would raise many millions
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    Brexit is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcome
    The EU is the religion. Brexit is the atheists finally striking back and showing what a load of superstitious bollocks it really is.
    You could make the point without the swearing.

    Good night everyone.
    I could but I choose not to. I subscribe to the Stephen Fry school of thought about swearing.

    “The sort of twee person who thinks swearing is in any way a sign of a lack of education or a lack of verbal interest is just a fucking lunatic.”
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    TGOHF said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.
    For about the billionth time, it isn't all about Lattes.

    Many, many millions of people will be happy to end free movement, gain control of our immigration policy, regain our seat at the WTO and be able to vary our VAT levels. More still will be glad to regain the democratic rights over domestic policy that British politicians foolishly

    These are concrete gains that will come from Brexit.
    None of them will improve anyone's life one iota - especially when set against the disruption and adverse economic impact which leaving is going to cause. We are opting out of a huge single market just as a trade war is kicking off. Perfect!
    Condescension alert.

    The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country.

    Economic outcomes will be FAR more influenced by domestic policy (and the economic behaviour of our people) than by our leaving the EU.
    "The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country."

    How exactly?
    Go you are so right - self determination is so overrated - cancel elections and make Corbyn the President.
    The average person in the street will have not one jot more ability to alter the way they are governed after Brexit. The vast majority of votes are completely wasted in our FPT system anyway; most MPs follow Sir Joseph Porter's approach and alwys vote as their party tells them too; in all likelihood we will end up largely following EU rules we'll have had no chance to influence.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Off topic, but I see Sir Wradley Biggins categorically states he and his team never crossed an ethical line in career. Though the thought occurs those who tip toe over the line never consider it crossing the line, do they?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924

    PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Rhode Island residents will have to pay a $20 fee to access sexually explicit content online if a recently introduced bill passes the General Assembly this session.

    http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20180302/ri-bill-would-impose-fee-for-accessing-online-porn

    Good idea - think how much could be raised in the UK if we followed a similar approach!
    $20?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Assuming the Mississippi GOP candidate is no Roy Moore it should be an easy GOP hold?

    Assuming plays a pivotal role in that sentence, given what we know of GOP Primary voters in that region.
    Although Moore did seem a spectacularly bad candidate and still only just lost, so it'd be hard to match him!
    Indeed. And tbf, Doug Jones was just about as good a Dem candidate as possible, However...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2018
    kle4 said:

    Off topic, but I see Sir Wradley Biggins categorically states he and his team never crossed an ethical line in career. Though the thought occurs those who tip toe over the line never consider it crossing the line, do they?

    Without commenting on any particular case, I wouldn't exactly be surprised if what is happening is a little bit like in formula 1. The rules come out and the first thing programmes do is work out how far they can stretch the elastic band and still be within them.

    Its amazing how many elite athletes appear to suffer from one condition or another and require a TUE (at least some of the time).
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645

    kle4 said:

    The ability to do FTAs seems to be becoming less of a selling point for Brexit by the day. Given that, why rush out of the Customs Union?

    Donald Trump's trade war is throwing a spanner into the works on that front for Brexiteers.
    Brexit is a religion - facts are both unnecessary and unwelcome
    The EU is the religion. Brexit is the atheists finally striking back and showing what a load of superstitious bollocks it really is.
    You could make the point without the swearing.
    Come now, we were allowed to use the word bollocks (and damn for that matter) in creative writing assignments in primary school, so it is pretty darn mild as these things go.

    It does seem as though 'shit' is increasingly acceptable as a mild curse if network television in the USA is anything to go by.
    Given the gradual reduction in the power of swear words to offend, will be ever need a stronger replacement for the c-word I wonder? If so, what would be a suitable candidate?
    I'm thinking things will actually go into reverse and archaic swears which are currently faintly comical will become once more shockingly vulgar.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    None of them will improve anyone's life one iota - especially when set against the disruption and adverse economic impact which leaving is going to cause. We are opting out of a huge single market just as a trade war is kicking off. Perfect!
    Condescension alert.

    The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country.

    Economic outcomes will be FAR more influenced by domestic policy (and the economic behaviour of our people) than by our leaving the EU.
    "The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country."

    How exactly?
    You really need me to explain?

    Legislate freely on domestic policy: have laws that suit our people
    Control our immigration policy: reduce downward pressure on wages, reduce demand for public services, savings made by not have to provide welfare entitlement for newly arrived EU citizens
    Vary our sales tax: reduce tax on certain necessities, e.g. Tampons, the ability to change the way we tax consumption entirely
    Construct a tariff schedule for our people: encourage the import of goods that we need to reduce prices for consumers

    You have totally failed to convince me - and I am sure I will never convince you.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    TGOHF said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The problem with the accession in reverse timetable is the lack of desirable alternatives. We like our car and airplane factories with their supply chains. We like our financial services providing tax for healthcare. We don't really want to go back to customs controls on the Irish border. We won't get third country trade arrangements as good as the ones we have already. There will be the temptation to hold back until the alternatives.are better.
    For about the billionth time, it isn't all about Lattes.

    Many, many millions of people will be happy to end free movement, gain control of our immigration policy, regain our seat at the WTO and be able to vary our VAT levels. More still will be glad to regain the democratic rights over domestic policy that British politicians foolishly

    These are concrete gains that will come from Brexit.
    None of them will improve anyone's life one iota - especially when set against the disruption and adverse economic impact which leaving is going to cause. We are opting out of a huge single market just as a trade war is kicking off. Perfect!
    Condescension alert.

    The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country.

    Economic outcomes will be FAR more influenced by domestic policy (and the economic behaviour of our people) than by our leaving the EU.
    "The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country."

    How exactly?
    Go you are so right - self determination is so overrated - cancel elections and make Corbyn the President.
    The average person in the street will have not one jot more ability to alter the way they are governed after Brexit. The vast majority of votes are completely wasted in our FPT system anyway; most MPs follow Sir Joseph Porter's approach and alwys vote as their party tells them too; in all likelihood we will end up largely following EU rules we'll have had no chance to influence.
    Until the day comes that you want to change the rules. Then you might be grateful we had the freedom to do it.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    If we were to have a five year transition, then I would expect that it would be staggered. (Making up things below rather than proposing this exact schedule...)

    So, X + 1 day, we leave the CFP and CAP, and are able to negotiate our own trade deals.

    X + 1 year, leave single market, with free movement, and the following EU administered bodies (ESA, Erasmus, etc.)

    X + 3 years, leave more EU administered bodies.

    X + 5 years, formally leave customs union having negotiated replacement deals.
    None of them will improve anyone's life one iota - especially when set against the disruption and adverse economic impact which leaving is going to cause. We are opting out of a huge single market just as a trade war is kicking off. Perfect!
    Condescension alert.

    The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country.

    Economic outcomes will be FAR more influenced by domestic policy (and the economic behaviour of our people) than by our leaving the EU.
    "The freedom to legislate freely on domestic policy, control our immigration policy, vary our sales tax and construct a tariff schedule designed solely for this people of this country, rather than a compromise for a large bloc, will certainly improve lives of the people of this country."

    How exactly?
    You really need me to explain?

    Legislate freely on domestic policy: have laws that suit our people
    Control our immigration policy: reduce downward pressure on wages, reduce demand for public services, savings made by not have to provide welfare entitlement for newly arrived EU citizens
    Vary our sales tax: reduce tax on certain necessities, e.g. Tampons, the ability to change the way we tax consumption entirely
    Construct a tariff schedule for our people: encourage the import of goods that we need to reduce prices for consumers

    All this depends on the terms under which we leave the EU and the final relationship we end up agreeing. If the ability to reduce VAT on tampons also entails significantly reduced inward investment then it may not be worth it.

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    edited March 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Rhode Island residents will have to pay a $20 fee to access sexually explicit content online if a recently introduced bill passes the General Assembly this session.

    http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20180302/ri-bill-would-impose-fee-for-accessing-online-porn

    Good idea - think how much could be raised in the UK if we followed a similar approach!
    $20?
    I suspect there may be other subscribers RCS, not just you. :wink:
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    welshowl said:

    Until the day comes that you want to change the rules. Then you might be grateful we had the freedom to do it.

    One thing that unites Brexiteers is the way "I" elides into "we" without much thought.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    AI cracks the opaque language of lawyers, outperforming them dramatically.....
    https://mashable.com/2018/02/26/ai-beats-humans-at-contracts/

    The disintermediation of law is going to,be very interesting to watch.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924

    rcs1000 said:

    PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Rhode Island residents will have to pay a $20 fee to access sexually explicit content online if a recently introduced bill passes the General Assembly this session.

    http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20180302/ri-bill-would-impose-fee-for-accessing-online-porn

    Good idea - think how much could be raised in the UK if we followed a similar approach!
    $20?
    I suspect there may other subscribers RCS, not just you. :wink:
    Not me. Perish the thought. Not least because I'm in the US.

    I was thinking of TSE.
This discussion has been closed.