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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 58% chance that Britain WON’T leave the EU o

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 58% chance that Britain WON’T leave the EU on March 29 2019

One thing about being a betting exchange like Betfair is that it has to stand in the middle between those who want to place bets and those who want to lay them. This means that in complex markets, which most political ones are, the rules have to be watertight to ensure that there are no arguments and disputes later.

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,266
    First :o
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    Second!

    Like Remain.

    Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,964

    Second!

    Like Remain.

    Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....

    .. or to the calendar.

    The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338

    Second!

    Like Remain.

    Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....

    .. or to the calendar.

    The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
    Or the Commission’s thin gruel we’ll be served up today - which I trust the government responds appropriately to...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338

    Second!

    Like Remain.

    Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....

    .. or to the calendar.

    The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
    Or the Commission’s thin gruel we’ll be served up today - which I trust the government responds appropriately to...
    Remainers: “Thank you dear EU Commission for pointing out the error of our ways. We prostrate ourselves before your benevolent omniscience and beg to be allowed to stay in the EU, Single Market, Customs Union, and join Shengen and the Euro. Surely the proles will see sense now? Best not to ask them, just in case.”

    Leavers: “We tried, so be it, fuck’em”
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,502
    edited March 7

    Second!

    Like Remain.

    Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....

    .. or to the calendar.

    The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
    The elections aren't until late May or June, and I'm not sure the new parliament even sits until July. From that point of view say July 1st would be neater than March, and everyone would get a couple more months to get their shit together.

    Assuming there's a deal, putting the actual withdrawal off for a little bit (but not enough to make the leavers feel they were being robbed) seems like a no-brainer, since everybody's shit is very much not yet together.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,535
    A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,072
    edited March 7
    The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron. Laddish behaviour turned into culture by TV progs and men's mags has done a volte-face into a political correctness that no one in their wildest imagination could have envisaged.

    It is impossible for opinion formers-if such people still exist-to have the vaguest idea which way this roller coaster is heading.

    The country took a vote in one era and now it's a different one. Only a fool would try to guess what the political mood will be in a years time.Think competely off the wall out of the box left field and you've got as much chance of being correct as anyone else.

    I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    Roger said:


    I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....

    Have Roger & William Glenn ever been seen in the same room together?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,072

    Roger said:


    I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....

    Have Roger & William Glenn ever been seen in the same room together?
    No way! He's much more erudite than I am.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998

    Second!

    Like Remain.

    Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....

    .. or to the calendar.

    The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
    The elections aren't until late May or June, and I'm not sure the new parliament even sits until July. From that point of view say July 1st would be neater than March, and everyone would get a couple more months to get their shit together.

    Assuming there's a deal, putting the actual withdrawal off for a little bit (but not enough to make the leavers feel they were being robbed) seems like a no-brainer, since everybody's shit is very much not yet together.
    That's pretty much my view too.

    There is a tendency to make "unanimous" sound like a high hurdle. It's not. "So, would you like the UK to crash out the EU, resulting in a recession and higher payments. Or would you like to agree with me now, on the phone, that we should extend Article 50 by two weeks?"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998

    A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?

    A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,535
    rcs1000 said:

    A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?

    A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.
    Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998
    Roger said:

    The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron. Laddish behaviour turned into culture by TV progs and men's mags has done a volte-face into a political correctness that no one in their wildest imagination could have envisaged.

    It is impossible for opinion formers-if such people still exist-to have the vaguest idea which way this roller coaster is heading.

    The country took a vote in one era and now it's a different one. Only a fool would try to guess what the political mood will be in a years time.Think competely off the wall out of the box left field and you've got as much chance of being correct as anyone else.

    I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....

    Oxycontin, Tramadol or something stronger?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron. Laddish behaviour turned into culture by TV progs and men's mags has done a volte-face into a political correctness that no one in their wildest imagination could have envisaged.

    It is impossible for opinion formers-if such people still exist-to have the vaguest idea which way this roller coaster is heading.

    The country took a vote in one era and now it's a different one. Only a fool would try to guess what the political mood will be in a years time.Think competely off the wall out of the box left field and you've got as much chance of being correct as anyone else.

    I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....

    Oxycontin, Tramadol or something stronger?
    Ethanol?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,051

    rcs1000 said:

    A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?

    A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.
    Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.
    Presumably if it's unclear - by the time legal eagles make it clear - a few week extension would have expired already...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?

    A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.
    Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.
    Presumably if it's unclear - by the time legal eagles make it clear - a few week extension would have expired already...
    I would have thought if it's unclear they would create a mechanism on the fly and then declare that was what the law meant, like the Tyler Precedent (very much made up on the go to satisfy Tyler's vast ego).

    It's only when the EU has clear procedures that problems arise, because like Article 50 itself they are invariably written by people who would have been out of their intellectual depth running a village shop.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998
    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?

    A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.
    Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.
    Presumably if it's unclear - by the time legal eagles make it clear - a few week extension would have expired already...
    Yes.

    It takes the ECJ months to even agree to hear a case. It would take a year or 18 months before the ECJ opined on whether the extension was legal.

    By which point it would be moot.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 832
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?

    A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.
    Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.
    Presumably if it's unclear - by the time legal eagles make it clear - a few week extension would have expired already...
    Yes.

    It takes the ECJ months to even agree to hear a case. It would take a year or 18 months before the ECJ opined on whether the extension was legal.

    By which point it would be moot.
    If all the extant 28 Member States agreed to an extension the ECJ would not need to opine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?

    A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.
    Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.
    Presumably if it's unclear - by the time legal eagles make it clear - a few week extension would have expired already...
    Yes.

    It takes the ECJ months to even agree to hear a case. It would take a year or 18 months before the ECJ opined on whether the extension was legal.

    By which point it would be moot.
    If all the extant 28 Member States agreed to an extension the ECJ would not need to opine.
    And since they are invariably ignored when the EU doesn't like their conclusions that's not really important anyway.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,181
    edited March 7

    rcs1000 said:

    A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?

    A minuted phone call with a representative from each government. As was demonstrated at the height of the Eurozone crisis, it can be done in 45 minutes.
    Different question. Article 50 required formalities for triggering, because of its constitutional significance. Does that apply to extensions? Unclear.
    Surely it depends on the length of the extension. If the UK and EU agreed to extend the A50 deadline by 100 years then that would arguably have as much constitutional impact as triggering it.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,023
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron. Laddish behaviour turned into culture by TV progs and men's mags has done a volte-face into a political correctness that no one in their wildest imagination could have envisaged.

    It is impossible for opinion formers-if such people still exist-to have the vaguest idea which way this roller coaster is heading.

    The country took a vote in one era and now it's a different one. Only a fool would try to guess what the political mood will be in a years time.Think competely off the wall out of the box left field and you've got as much chance of being correct as anyone else.

    I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....

    Oxycontin, Tramadol or something stronger?
    Roger might have a point since Conservative governments did join various predecessors to the Euro, so there is no reason to suppose Tory policy can't pivot again.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,535
    The next problem with an extension is when it would be sought. The deal is going to need to get a round of approvals. If it is to be approved, it needs to have been agreed months in advance. Christmas is cutting it very fine. But if the hold-up is in not deciding an approval, it's not obvious an extension is going to help.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,648
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/06/italys-radical-new-leaders-denounce-eu-brexit-strategy-foolish/

    leaders of Italy’s triumphant conservative alliance have called for a radical change in the EU’s negotiating stance over Brexit, describing threats to restrict trade and punish Britain as ideological idiocy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,992
    Like the EU, who still think that if they make Brexit hard and difficult enough the UK will just give up and stay, far too many punters on this market are letting their own assumptions rule their wallets.

    I make this a 75%+ shot and would back it accordingly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    edited March 7
    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,051

    The next problem with an extension is when it would be sought. The deal is going to need to get a round of approvals. If it is to be approved, it needs to have been agreed months in advance. Christmas is cutting it very fine. But if the hold-up is in not deciding an approval, it's not obvious an extension is going to help.

    What does the last sentence mean?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,992
    rcs1000 said:

    Second!

    Like Remain.

    Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....

    .. or to the calendar.

    The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
    The elections aren't until late May or June, and I'm not sure the new parliament even sits until July. From that point of view say July 1st would be neater than March, and everyone would get a couple more months to get their shit together.

    Assuming there's a deal, putting the actual withdrawal off for a little bit (but not enough to make the leavers feel they were being robbed) seems like a no-brainer, since everybody's shit is very much not yet together.
    That's pretty much my view too.

    There is a tendency to make "unanimous" sound like a high hurdle. It's not. "So, would you like the UK to crash out the EU, resulting in a recession and higher payments. Or would you like to agree with me now, on the phone, that we should extend Article 50 by two weeks?"
    Yes, that's the biggest risk to the bet IMHO, not a cancellation of Brexit. But, it's still 1:4 or less.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,826
    TGOHF said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/06/italys-radical-new-leaders-denounce-eu-brexit-strategy-foolish/

    leaders of Italy’s triumphant conservative alliance have called for a radical change in the EU’s negotiating stance over Brexit, describing threats to restrict trade and punish Britain as ideological idiocy.

    "triumphant"?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,992

    The next problem with an extension is when it would be sought. The deal is going to need to get a round of approvals. If it is to be approved, it needs to have been agreed months in advance. Christmas is cutting it very fine. But if the hold-up is in not deciding an approval, it's not obvious an extension is going to help.

    I'm not sure. The European Parliament ratified Phase 1 of the divorce agreement very quickly after the European Council in December last year. I imagine our Parliament could do the same inside a couple of weeks of debate. So you could still wrap up by February.

    It wouldn't surprise me if negotiations go on until that crunch meeting in December.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,535
    rkrkrk said:

    The next problem with an extension is when it would be sought. The deal is going to need to get a round of approvals. If it is to be approved, it needs to have been agreed months in advance. Christmas is cutting it very fine. But if the hold-up is in not deciding an approval, it's not obvious an extension is going to help.

    What does the last sentence mean?
    Bloody predictive text.


    If the problem is that a necessary approval is outstanding because someone isn't happy, an extension may well not help make that party happy and unanimity for the extension may in any case not be forthcoming, depending on how unhappy that unhappy party is.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,181
    TGOHF said:
    There must be an EU development grant they can apply for
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,051

    rkrkrk said:

    The next problem with an extension is when it would be sought. The deal is going to need to get a round of approvals. If it is to be approved, it needs to have been agreed months in advance. Christmas is cutting it very fine. But if the hold-up is in not deciding an approval, it's not obvious an extension is going to help.

    What does the last sentence mean?
    Bloody predictive text.


    If the problem is that a necessary approval is outstanding because someone isn't happy, an extension may well not help make that party happy and unanimity for the extension may in any case not be forthcoming, depending on how unhappy that unhappy party is.
    Thanks - yes I agree.
    Extension likely only if they are running out of time on a technicality.
    Punters may like to note they can also bet on the timing of exit in a secondary betfair market, and so can cover themselves on a 3 month delay...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    Well if he did say that he was a bit silly because it was Brown and Miliband (not Blair) who formulated the government response of expelling four minor diplomats. But it seems more likely his remarks have been misunderstood.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,992

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    We won't do anything.

    And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.

    I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.

    The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    But it seems more likely his remarks have been misunderstood.
    Mr Bryant NOT criticising a Tory PM for the shortcomings of her Labour predecessors? You are in a charitable and optimistic mood this morning!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    TGOHF said:
    April's polling could be interesting then.

    When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    TGOHF said:
    What they need is a leadership election to refresh the party and get some publicity.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840
    Scott_P said:
    That sounds on the face of it like quite bad news?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000

    TGOHF said:
    April's polling could be interesting then.

    When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?
    You don’t need to put up a deposit for council elections.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    edited March 7
    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:
    What they need is a leadership election to refresh the party and get some publicity.
    Behave, Dr Foxy! :smiley:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    We won't do anything.
    Problem is not whether we should do something but what can we actually do? The reason Miliband didn't do anything drastic is because our options are limited. We can't get at Putin or his acolytes, economic sanctions are already tight and I don't think a war against Russia would help especially since we would have no chance of winning.

    If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.

    Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 574

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    We won't do anything.

    And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.

    I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.

    The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.
    The reaction of BoJo et al is hypocritical - the pot calling the kettle black. All intelligence agencies seek to have their countries' perceived opponents bumped off - some are more effective than others, e.g. Mossad. The British government does it - for example, the death of the lawyer Pat Finucane was no accident. The UK government hardly holds the moral high ground given the royal welcome being given today to one of the world's most malevolent gangsters, Mohammed bin Salman.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611

    TGOHF said:
    April's polling could be interesting then.

    When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?
    You don’t need to put up a deposit for council elections.
    Oh, OK, didn't know that. Surprised we don't get more nutters local interest groups standing then. (Although I suppose the number of signatures to support your nomination is the constraining factor there?)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,738

    TGOHF said:
    April's polling could be interesting then.

    When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?
    You don’t need to put up a deposit for council elections.
    Oh, OK, didn't know that. Surprised we don't get more nutters local interest groups standing then. (Although I suppose the number of signatures to support your nomination is the constraining factor there?)
    You only need 10 :)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,754
    Scott_P said:
    I can’t see how it will cost 83,000 jobs but it will cost influence and diminishes the City.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,826

    TGOHF said:
    April's polling could be interesting then.

    When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?
    You don’t need to put up a deposit for council elections.
    Oh, OK, didn't know that. Surprised we don't get more nutters local interest groups standing then. (Although I suppose the number of signatures to support your nomination is the constraining factor there?)
    Ten?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000

    TGOHF said:
    April's polling could be interesting then.

    When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?
    You don’t need to put up a deposit for council elections.
    Oh, OK, didn't know that. Surprised we don't get more nutters local interest groups standing then. (Although I suppose the number of signatures to support your nomination is the constraining factor there?)
    Ten locals is all you need.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840

    TGOHF said:
    April's polling could be interesting then.

    When do they have to put up deposits for May council candidates? Or is that down to the candidate?
    You don’t need to put up a deposit for council elections.
    Oh, OK, didn't know that. Surprised we don't get more nutters local interest groups standing then. (Although I suppose the number of signatures to support your nomination is the constraining factor there?)
    I guess the problem for local interest groups is that local council elections aren't something the locals are very interested in.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    I can’t see how it will cost 83,000 jobs
    Especially as Brussels is already "its biggest centre of operations".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    edited March 7

    Oh, OK, didn't know that. Surprised we don't get more nutters local interest groups standing then.

    We've got the Momentum/Labour slate and the remnant of UKIP who believe Bolton has not made them an irrelevant laughing stock. How many nutters do you want?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,826
    daodao said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    We won't do anything.

    And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.

    I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.

    The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.
    The reaction of BoJo et al is hypocritical - the pot calling the kettle black. All intelligence agencies seek to have their countries' perceived opponents bumped off - some are more effective than others, e.g. Mossad. The British government does it - for example, the death of the lawyer Pat Finucane was no accident. The UK government hardly holds the moral high ground given the royal welcome being given today to one of the world's most malevolent gangsters, Mohammed bin Salman.
    Dr Kelly?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,992
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    We won't do anything.
    Problem is not whether we should do something but what can we actually do? The reason Miliband didn't do anything drastic is because our options are limited. We can't get at Putin or his acolytes, economic sanctions are already tight and I don't think a war against Russia would help especially since we would have no chance of winning.

    If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.

    Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.
    A load of Putin's mafioso scumbags have money, assets and investments in London.

    Seize it. Kick them in the balls.

    They are the only real ones who can and do influence Putin.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 23,992
    daodao said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    We won't do anything.

    And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.

    I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.

    The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.
    The reaction of BoJo et al is hypocritical - the pot calling the kettle black. All intelligence agencies seek to have their countries' perceived opponents bumped off - some are more effective than others, e.g. Mossad. The British government does it - for example, the death of the lawyer Pat Finucane was no accident. The UK government hardly holds the moral high ground given the royal welcome being given today to one of the world's most malevolent gangsters, Mohammed bin Salman.
    That's a very transparent attempt at drawing moral equivalence, with lashings of whataboutism.

    Yes, the UK Government hasn't been perfect in the past. No country is. But it also doesn't make the grisly murder of its opponents on its own soil or overseas a matter of routine.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,826
    Scott_P said:
    Would make a lot of sense. The formal and financial ties to vested interest does Labour no favours (apart from the money, of course).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    daodao said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    We won't do anything.

    And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.

    I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.

    The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.
    The reaction of BoJo et al is hypocritical - the pot calling the kettle black. All intelligence agencies seek to have their countries' perceived opponents bumped off - some are more effective than others, e.g. Mossad. The British government does it - for example, the death of the lawyer Pat Finucane was no accident. The UK government hardly holds the moral high ground given the royal welcome being given today to one of the world's most malevolent gangsters, Mohammed bin Salman.
    Do you think his lawyers might take exception to that description?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    edited March 7
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    I can’t see how it will cost 83,000 jobs but it will cost influence and diminishes the City.

    Xavier Rolet came up with that figure.

    It is based on all jobs going plus all related support/back office/compliance/legal jobs.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338

    Scott_P said:
    That sounds on the face of it like quite bad news?
    It was tax domiciled in Switzerland so it’s the Swiss who will be losing the tax. And as it’s now both headquartered and domiciled in Belgium, next time there’s a crisis.....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,535
    Leavers have done far more to enable Vladimir Putin's international objectives than anything he himself has done in the last couple of years. Complaining now about an aggressive militaristic power that disregards international norms is self-defeating.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 832

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    I can’t see how it will cost 83,000 jobs
    Especially as Brussels is already "its biggest centre of operations".
    No trace of confirmation bias there. No sirree.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,738

    Leavers have done far more to enable Vladimir Putin's international objectives than anything he himself has done in the last couple of years. Complaining now about an aggressive militaristic power that disregards international norms is self-defeating.

    His new missiles do look good though :)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,789

    Second!

    Like Remain.

    Punters are paying too much attention to the commentariat and not enough attention to the polls.....

    .. or to the calendar.

    The clock is ticking, the time remaining to reverse Brexit is minimal. Only reason I can see it going past 29/3/19 is a unanimous extension but that's not likely due to the forthcoming European Parliamentary Elections.
    It's possible but it's not likely. i could see a scenario where the talks or ratification process went to (and beyond) the wire and a short extension was needed in order to allow for that process to be completed. I agree that the EP elections probably form an absolute deadline unless there's a major rethink on the whole Brexit process, which is highly unlikely. As such, any extension is likely to be only weeks.

    However, the much more likely outcome is that it'll be 29 March.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    We won't do anything.
    Problem is not whether we should do something but what can we actually do? The reason Miliband didn't do anything drastic is because our options are limited. We can't get at Putin or his acolytes, economic sanctions are already tight and I don't think a war against Russia would help especially since we would have no chance of winning.

    If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.

    Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.
    A load of Putin's mafioso scumbags have money, assets and investments in London.

    Seize it. Kick them in the balls.

    They are the only real ones who can and do influence Putin.
    While you are corect about the property of his cronies, to seize private assets we would need to have prima facie evidence of criminal activity. Do we have it? I doubt it.

    And I'm not keen on making exceptions even for the Russian mafia. Imagine how McDonnell could use such a precedent in his crusade for Chavez style crony capitalism Socialism
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Would make a lot of sense. The formal and financial ties to vested interest does Labour no favours (apart from the money, of course).
    Not really. The Unions are now very public sector oriented, but have always represented the economic agenda more than the more intellectual agenda of the individual members. The contest for General Secretary is a good example, but there are similar ones going back a century.

    Of course, more unionisation of the private sector workforce would improve things further, particularly in respect of the casual and gig economy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    I can’t see how it will cost 83,000 jobs
    Especially as Brussels is already "its biggest centre of operations".
    No trace of confirmation bias there. No sirree.
    But 83,000 jobs lost? What are we talking about here - closing down the NHS?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,738
    Whoa, Nick Robinson alleging that serious russian money laundering goes on in London
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    I can’t see how it will cost 83,000 jobs but it will cost influence and diminishes the City.

    Xavier Rolet came up with that figure.

    It is based on all jobs going plus all related support/back office/compliance/legal jobs.
    Which is remarkably silly. Any idea what a realistic threat to jobs might be ?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,097
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    We won't do anything.
    Problem is not whether we should do something but what can we actually do? The reason Miliband didn't do anything drastic is because our options are limited. We can't get at Putin or his acolytes, economic sanctions are already tight and I don't think a war against Russia would help especially since we would have no chance of winning.

    If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.

    Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.
    Russia would not stand a chance in a conventional war against NATO. It is not the USSR. Nobody would win a nuclear exchange.

    Due to economic prudence (balanced budget, letting the currency go when the oil price fell rather than propping it up, minimal government debt) it is hard to pressure Russia at a macro level. Putin won’t make Eden’s mistake.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,789

    rkrkrk said:

    The next problem with an extension is when it would be sought. The deal is going to need to get a round of approvals. If it is to be approved, it needs to have been agreed months in advance. Christmas is cutting it very fine. But if the hold-up is in not deciding an approval, it's not obvious an extension is going to help.

    What does the last sentence mean?
    Bloody predictive text.


    If the problem is that a necessary approval is outstanding because someone isn't happy, an extension may well not help make that party happy and unanimity for the extension may in any case not be forthcoming, depending on how unhappy that unhappy party is.
    Although the A50 deal is agreed by QMV, so if one party within the EU27 isn't happy then it shouldn't delay the signing of the deal. An extension, by contrast, needs unanimity.

    (Actually, the Treaty isn't clear whether the QMV is of the 27 states or the full 28. Logically, you'd think it'd exclude the UK but the text refers to the Council, and Britain remains a member of that until it leaves).
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,492
    So much for Brexit free days...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    We won't do anything.
    Problem is

    If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.

    Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.
    A load of Putin's mafioso scumbags have money, assets and investments in London.

    Seize it. Kick them in the balls.

    They are the only real ones who can and do influence Putin.
    While you are corect about the property of his cronies, to seize private assets we would need to have prima facie evidence of criminal activity. Do we have it? I doubt it.

    And I'm not keen on making exceptions even for the Russian mafia. Imagine how McDonnell could use such a precedent in his crusade for Chavez style crony capitalism Socialism
    Perhaps proper exposure of how Putin has manipulated our elections and proper counter-measures might be more effective.

    Unleash the First Battalion of the Royal Brigade of cyber-trolls.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    Pulpstar said:

    Whoa, Nick Robinson alleging that serious russian money laundering goes on in London

    Now there's a surprise!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,648
    edited March 7

    Leavers have done far more to enable Vladimir Putin's international objectives than anything he himself has done in the last couple of years. Complaining now about an aggressive militaristic power that disregards international norms is self-defeating.

    We tried - in between causing global warming, celebrating evil dictators like Churchill, breaking up the Uk and causing the Syrian war.

    Even the remake of Porridge can be laid at the door of Leave.


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Good morning, everyone.

    Yeah, finickity rules are irksome. At least these are known to be finickity, though. *cough*pitlanestart*cough*

    F1: testing is underway. Will the McLaren break down? Will Mercedes look depressingly fast? Live feed is here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43287919
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    TGOHF said:

    Leavers have done far more to enable Vladimir Putin's international objectives than anything he himself has done in the last couple of years. Complaining now about an aggressive militaristic power that disregards international norms is self-defeating.

    We tried - in between causing global warming, celebrating evil dictators like Churchill, breaking up the Uk and causing the Syrian war.

    Even the remake of Porridge can be laid at the door of Leave.


    But we draw the line at the Dad's Army movie.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,072
    daodao said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    We won't do anything.

    And Putin will continue to murder Russian dissidents in the UK who displease him.

    I expect this sort of thing is very popular in Russia, and fits in with his strongman image.

    The purest form of justice would be for one his agents to have an accident whilst on holiday in the UK, but that wouldn't be very British.
    The reaction of BoJo et al is hypocritical - the pot calling the kettle black. All intelligence agencies seek to have their countries' perceived opponents bumped off - some are more effective than others, e.g. Mossad. The British government does it - for example, the death of the lawyer Pat Finucane was no accident. The UK government hardly holds the moral high ground given the royal welcome being given today to one of the world's most malevolent gangsters, Mohammed bin Salman.
    If it wasn't that we as a country are now beyond humiliation and have now well and truly scraped the bottom this visit would be the ultimate in international embarrassment.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,518

    No country is. But it also doesn't make the grisly murder of its opponents on its own soil or overseas a matter of routine.

    It did in the 80s. See the Stalker/Sampson inquiry.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,535
    TGOHF said:

    Leavers have done far more to enable Vladimir Putin's international objectives than anything he himself has done in the last couple of years. Complaining now about an aggressive militaristic power that disregards international norms is self-defeating.

    We tried - in between causing global warming, celebrating evil dictators like Churchill, breaking up the Uk and causing the Syrian war.

    Even the remake of Porridge can be laid at the door of Leave.


    Vladimir Putin has undoubtedly been aided by Leave. Why do you think the Russian trolls are so keen on it?

    Vote Leave Avoid Responsibility continues though, I see.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,738
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whoa, Nick Robinson alleging that serious russian money laundering goes on in London

    Now there's a surprise!
    I think everyone would appreciate such filthy money disappearing though
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    I can’t see how it will cost 83,000 jobs but it will cost influence and diminishes the City.

    Xavier Rolet came up with that figure.

    It is based on all jobs going plus all related support/back office/compliance/legal jobs.
    The ousted French head of the LSE......
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whoa, Nick Robinson alleging that serious russian money laundering goes on in London

    Now there's a surprise!
    I think everyone would appreciate such filthy money disappearing though
    Apart from those in the City who take their share!
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 726
    I hesitate to call for it and I'm sure there is a good potential retaliation, international law and morality based argument against it... but in conflicts between nations at this level if a foreign power has assassinated someone on our soil it is tempting to call for payment back in kind.

    I feel we lack real options to retaliate in any other meaningful way.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,789

    A question to which I don’t have an answer: what formalities would be required to extend the time period of the Article 50 notice? Remember, in Britain the triggering required Parliament’s involvement. Would a further Parliamentary vote be required? And what is required in other member states?

    Good question. The Supreme Court ruled that the government couldn't trigger A50 by itself because of the nullifying effect it would - or could - have on so much legislation.

    Would an extension fall foul of the same problem? Possibly. The Act that granted the government the power to trigger A50 was limited in scope. The key clause is this:

    "The Prime Minister may notify, under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the EU."

    That doesn't say anything about granting the PM the right to extend Britain's membership once A50 is triggered and such an action could in essence nullify the effect of that Act. However, just because that Act doesn't provide for it doesn't mean that the executive's traditional power to make treaties doesn't still apply. After all, unlike triggering A50, requesting an extension would not have any direct effect on any other legislation.

    if the government did request an extension, I think it's highly likely there'd be a court case and there are persuadable arguments on both sides. For what it's worth, my opinion would be that the government does have the right to do so without further legislation or even a vote in parliament (though such a vote would be politically advisable), but I'm no lawyer, never mind an expert.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,243

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    I can’t see how it will cost 83,000 jobs but it will cost influence and diminishes the City.

    Xavier Rolet came up with that figure.

    It is based on all jobs going plus all related support/back office/compliance/legal jobs.
    The ousted French head of the LSE......
    Please don't do this. Rolet built the LSE into an industry titan from when he took over. He did a great job and while I agree his figure is pessimistic, it has nothing to do with his being French or being ousted from the top job at LSE (especially since the number will predate the difficulty he ran into).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,243

    I hesitate to call for it and I'm sure there is a good potential retaliation, international law and morality based argument against it... but in conflicts between nations at this level if a foreign power has assassinated someone on our soil it is tempting to call for payment back in kind.

    I feel we lack real options to retaliate in any other meaningful way.

    Yes there is, kick all the Russians out of London. Make them do their laundry somewhere else.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    Oh dear.....someone doesn't know their Frankenstein.....

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    We will almost certainly have left the EU by March 29th 2019 when if we remain in the single market and customs union and continue to have free movement until the end of December 2020 due to the transition period
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,789
    Roger said:

    The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron.

    Leaving aside the somewhat inaccurate description of Trump, it's not true to say that Obama was the most popular US president. Going by the gallup series, that accolade goes to George W Bush, who hit a 90% approval rating immediately post-9/11 (he also scored one of the lowest approval ratings in history, bottoming out at 25% - only Nixon and Truman have scored worse). By contrast, Obama never received a better than his inaugural rating of 67%. He did do well in avoiding deep negatives, never dropping below 40% - but Kennedy and Eisenhower did better.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    edited March 7

    Leavers have done far more to enable Vladimir Putin's international objectives than anything he himself has done in the last couple of years. Complaining now about an aggressive militaristic power that disregards international norms is self-defeating.

    Given most Russians live in European Russia perhaps the EU should invite Russia to take Britain's place after Brexit? After all, most of the old Eastern Block is now part of the EU and has just swapped directions from Moscow for directions from Brussels
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,072

    Oh dear.....someone doesn't know their Frankenstein.....

    A parable for Trump
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,789

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron. Laddish behaviour turned into culture by TV progs and men's mags has done a volte-face into a political correctness that no one in their wildest imagination could have envisaged.

    It is impossible for opinion formers-if such people still exist-to have the vaguest idea which way this roller coaster is heading.

    The country took a vote in one era and now it's a different one. Only a fool would try to guess what the political mood will be in a years time.Think competely off the wall out of the box left field and you've got as much chance of being correct as anyone else.

    I think Brexit will disappear in a puff of smoke and we'll join the Euro.....

    Oxycontin, Tramadol or something stronger?
    Roger might have a point since Conservative governments did join various predecessors to the Euro, so there is no reason to suppose Tory policy can't pivot again.
    Not while the leave/remain divide is as it is, in terms of party support.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,072
    edited March 7

    Roger said:

    The pendulum is swinging in much greater arcs that it's ever done before. The most charming and popular US President has been replaced by a redneck vulgarian moron.

    Leaving aside the somewhat inaccurate description of Trump, it's not true to say that Obama was the most popular US president. Going by the gallup series, that accolade goes to George W Bush, who hit a 90% approval rating immediately post-9/11 (he also scored one of the lowest approval ratings in history, bottoming out at 25% - only Nixon and Truman have scored worse). By contrast, Obama never received a better than his inaugural rating of 67%. He did do well in avoiding deep negatives, never dropping below 40% - but Kennedy and Eisenhower did better.
    I was talking internationally. I can't think of any President in living memory who had more respect throughout the world or in Trump's case any less
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,789
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does he mean Chris Bryant?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/sergei-skripal-does-revenge-for-treason-lie-behind-harm-to-ex-spy

    If so I have to say I think that's a pretty tendentious reading of Bryant's comments as well.
    Probably - but it may be more to do with this:



    But as I haven’t heard the comments I can’t say.
    We won't do anything.
    Problem is not whether we should do something but what can we actually do? The reason Miliband didn't do anything drastic is because our options are limited. We can't get at Putin or his acolytes, economic sanctions are already tight and I don't think a war against Russia would help especially since we would have no chance of winning.

    If we were like Russia we could brutally torture the Ambassador and his staff to make a point but fortunately we are not so we can't.

    Putin does these things because he believes he can get away with them. And the trouble is he's right.
    A load of Putin's mafioso scumbags have money, assets and investments in London.

    Seize it. Kick them in the balls.

    They are the only real ones who can and do influence Putin.
    While you are corect about the property of his cronies, to seize private assets we would need to have prima facie evidence of criminal activity. Do we have it? I doubt it.

    And I'm not keen on making exceptions even for the Russian mafia. Imagine how McDonnell could use such a precedent in his crusade for Chavez style crony capitalism Socialism
    It doesn't need seizing as such - not without clear evidence of it being the proceeds of crime. Sanctions to freeze assets would be a healthy start, and perfectly in line with normal practices.
This discussion has been closed.