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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember from just a year ago the polling build-up to TMay’s d

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  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    rcs1000 said:
    Interesting. At the same time, states need to consider how the distribution of gains affects the balance of power, and should sometimes reject positive-sum outcomes on that basis.

    I think the wholesale transfer of Western technology to China via forced joint ventures and the toleration of outright theft may be seen in that light by future historians.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,202

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    dixiedean said:

    On topic: although the narrative is, quite justifiably, that Theresa May badly screwed up the campaign, it is always worth reminding ourselves that the Tory vote actually held up, and it was Jeremy Corbyn's quite astonishing feat of hoovering up votes from the LibDems, Greens and to an extent UKIP which was unexpected. To be honest I still don't really understand it, and I'm not sure anyone else does either. For that reason, I don't think it's easy to predict whether he can repeat the trick next time.

    But it is super easy to explain and understand. A big Tory majority simply terrifies non-Tories...Labour voting was the only way to stop it in most constituencies.
    This visceral dislike remains a mystery to many Conservatives.
    So if the narrative next time is that Corbyn is ahead, or at least that it will be competitive, that motivation will disappear?
    The trouble with that type of argument, is knowing how far it recurses. How many anti-tories will think that other anti-tories will have stood down because Corbyn looks competitive and that it is therefore more important than ever to vote for Corbyn?
    I think it is easy to be too cynical and negative. I went into the 2017 campaign feeling negative about just about everything and deciding to cast my vote to kick the Tories for the mess. It seemed obvious that such a vote should be for the Lib Dems who were in 2nd place in my neck of the woods.

    But as the campaign went on the Labour Party's pitch was just so compelling. They had a manifesto with a programme. They were out doing the rallies - coverage of which I found very appealing. In fact towards the end when there was a photo of Corbyn speaking to a huge crowd when a rainbow appeared was really moving. It felt really genuine. This is what a political SHOULD be like. The movement in the polls made me wonder if they just might pull it off after all, and if they did I wanted to be a part of it.
    A rainbow, eh? And all those pots of gold at the end of it that Corbyn was offering. They were genuine and moving too, I'll bet.
    It better be genuine. McDonnell has already spent it.
    Several times.
  • Options

    I would have made a great spy.

    I'm multilingual, I'm the king of subtlety and nuance, great on my feet.

    I wouldn't fall for honey traps either.

    And given you infamous dress sense, particularly the shoes, nobody would ever remember you coming or going...
    I'm consistently the best dressed man at work.

    When I chillax is when I dress down.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited March 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    People regularly drive lorries full of people into Britain, so smuggling a tiny amount of liquid in is likely a trivial matter*. And it's not as though any regular inspection would even examine the actual contents of a small bottle.

    * People apparently get fentanyl in the post from China, God knows what else comes in that way.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    I would have made a great spy.

    I'm multilingual, I'm the king of subtlety and nuance, great on my feet.

    I wouldn't fall for honey traps either.

    I think we should be especially cautious of PBers with links to the Russian embassy .... honey traps, hair treatments and the like ....

    A thorough rummage through the PB archives is in order ....
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    I would have made a great spy.

    I'm multilingual, I'm the king of subtlety and nuance, great on my feet.

    I wouldn't fall for honey traps either.

    And given you infamous dress sense, particularly the shoes, nobody would ever remember you coming or going...
    I'm consistently the best dressed man at work.

    When I chillax is when I dress down.
    I have this vision of you carrying out a poisoned umbrellla style hit and the #1 recollection those in the vicinity can remember is the muffled sound of tradegy by steps coming from some headphones...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    I would have thought that you could put a gram or two of polonium inside a small airtight shielded container, maybe the size of a few ten pence pieces on top of each other. And then you could FedEx it.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,269

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    Point of detail. T'was Polonium, not Plutonium.
    PBers prefer Plato-nium
    (I'll get me coat..)
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    dixiedean said:

    On topic: although the narrative is, quite justifiably, that Theresa May badly screwed up the campaign, it is always worth reminding ourselves that the Tory vote actually held up, and it was Jeremy Corbyn's quite astonishing feat of hoovering up votes from the LibDems, Greens and to an extent UKIP which was unexpected. To be honest I still don't really understand it, and I'm not sure anyone else does either. For that reason, I don't think it's easy to predict whether he can repeat the trick next time.

    But it is super easy to explain and understand. A big Tory majority simply terrifies non-Tories...Labour voting was the only way to stop it in most constituencies.
    This visceral dislike remains a mystery to many Conservatives.
    So if the narrative next time is that Corbyn is ahead, or at least that it will be competitive, that motivation will disappear?
    The trouble with that type of argument, is knowing how far it recurses. How many anti-tories will think that other anti-tories will have stood down because Corbyn looks competitive and that it is therefore more important than ever to vote for Corbyn?
    I think it is easy to be too cynical and negative. I went into the 2017 campaign feeling negative about just about everything and deciding to cast my vote to kick the Tories for the mess. It seemed obvious that such a vote should be for the Lib Dems who were in 2nd place in my neck of the woods.

    But as the campaign went on the Labour Party's pitch was just so compelling. They had a manifesto with a programme. They were out doing the rallies - coverage of which I found very appealing. In fact towards the end when there was a photo of Corbyn speaking to a huge crowd when a rainbow appeared was really moving. It felt really genuine. This is what a political SHOULD be like. The movement in the polls made me wonder if they just might pull it off after all, and if they did I wanted to be a part of it.
    A rainbow, eh? And all those pots of gold at the end of it that Corbyn was offering. They were genuine and moving too, I'll bet.
    It better be genuine. McDonnell has already spent it.
    If you miss out on the story you aren't really understanding what politics is all about. Bitter partisan sniping just turns people off.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why's Hammond banging on about a deal must including Financial Services. Tusk's offer of zero tariffs on goods looks fine to me.

    Perhaps because services account for over 40% of our exports by value ?
    The EU does not charge tariffs on any import of services, so this is entirely about regulation and access.
    Is that does not and never will or does not currently?
    I would be staggered if they introduced them, to be honest. There's no way it would get anywhere near the required unanimity given that Estonia (for example) is a utterly service dominated economy.
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Ishmael_Z said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    When were you last subjected to a customs search which would have detected small quantities of any of these things as you entered the UK?
    What you mean you don't go down the red channel when you are carrying a deadly nerve agent for an enemy state?
    Prolly came in through the diplomatic bag.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    edited March 2018

    Ishmael_Z said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    When were you last subjected to a customs search which would have detected small quantities of any of these things as you entered the UK?
    What you mean you don't go down the red channel when you are carrying a deadly nerve agent for an enemy state?
    :):lol::lol:
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,269
    edited March 2018
    Ishmael_Z said:

    dixiedean said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    https://www.twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/971365098966183936
    [btw, anyone know the etymology of 'melt' in this context]

    Melt = Someone really thick and or someone who needs to sack up and grow a pair.
    That's a definition (and I'm not convinced it's the right one), not the etymology.
    The latter definition was certainly used 30 years ago in South Lancashire (you soft melt).
    Melt = the ultimate destiny of the snowflake.
    Not necessarily - the snowflake will melt, but that water may well end up in the water table, which may reach the surface at springs, which then enter streams, then rivers, then finally the sea! And then evaporation causes the water to turn into clouds, which may well end up making more snowflakes, depending on prevailing temperatures!
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    I would have thought that you could put a gram or two of polonium inside a small airtight shielded container, maybe the size of a few ten pence pieces on top of each other. And then you could FedEx it.
    Having heard the way people smuggle drugs into prisons I think delivering it via a drone off a boat of the coast of the UK is possible.

    PS - I recently read a report that said 'kids' pictures sent to prisoners have been found to have psychoactive substances mixed into the paint.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,382
    edited March 2018
    I cannot think of any better advert for doing a law degree.

    https://twitter.com/moylato/status/970996163276169216

    Edit - Hold up, the Bulgarians do a degree in firefighting?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,264
    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    On topic: although the narrative is, quite justifiably, that Theresa May badly screwed up the campaign, it is always worth reminding ourselves that the Tory vote actually held up, and it was Jeremy Corbyn's quite astonishing feat of hoovering up votes from the LibDems, Greens and to an extent UKIP which was unexpected. To be honest I still don't really understand it, and I'm not sure anyone else does either. For that reason, I don't think it's easy to predict whether he can repeat the trick next time.

    But it is super easy to explain and understand. A big Tory majority simply terrifies non-Tories...Labour voting was the only way to stop it in most constituencies.
    This visceral dislike remains a mystery to many Conservatives.
    And ANY Corbyn majority terrifies non-Socialists. Last time ANY level of Labour majority was a nonsense, as all - Labour candidates included - agreed.

    Next time? Not so much....
    You are reinforcing my point there. The 2 parties are so far apart now that one is forced to choose. I understand the argument that Corbyn maxed out his vote last time. The problem is that the Conservatives probably did so too.
    The turnout in many Conservative seats was slightly disappointing, which suggests they didn't max out their popular vote, although if true it obviously wouldn't help them so much in marginal seats. For instance 2017 was the first time turnout was lower in Southend West than Hackney North. There are other examples.
    That assumes those in safe Conservative seats who didn't vote were Conservatives. That does not necessarily follow.
    All the Tory activists had taken their GOTV operation away into seats that turned out to be entirely safe for Labour.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,202
    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    When were you last subjected to a customs search which would have detected small quantities of any of these things as you entered the UK?
    What you mean you don't go down the red channel when you are carrying a deadly nerve agent for an enemy state?
    :):lol::lol:

    A policeman is also fighting for his life, according to the papers. God knows who else was put at risk. Not just the NHS staff but those in the restaurant, people walking roundabout, children etc. An assassination attempt which puts ordinary members of the public at risk is pretty bloody close to a terrorist attack, frankly.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    JackW said:

    I would have made a great spy.

    I'm multilingual, I'm the king of subtlety and nuance, great on my feet.

    I wouldn't fall for honey traps either.

    I think we should be especially cautious of PBers with links to the Russian embassy .... honey traps, hair treatments and the like ....

    A thorough rummage through the PB archives is in order ....
    I have only been to the embassy once, as a family member was receiving a decoration. It’s a lovely building.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,808
    edited March 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    No, VX or Sarin would be chemical. The amounts needed for an individual attack, particularly for VX, would be miniscule, and much of the attention would be on delivery mechanism. I seriously doubt any intention of a wider attack here, as any loss of containment would quite likely expose the attacker, not just to the agent, but to being caught.

    EDIT: not bring food, as autocorrect would have it!
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    I cannot think of any better advert for doing a law degree.

    https://twitter.com/moylato/status/970996163276169216

    Edit - Hold up, the Bulgarians do a degree in firefighting?

    Since when is geography a social science?
  • Options
    RoyalBlue said:

    I cannot think of any better advert for doing a law degree.

    https://twitter.com/moylato/status/970996163276169216

    Edit - Hold up, the Bulgarians do a degree in firefighting?

    Since when is geography a social science?
    When it focuses on human geography rather than the geography of the earth?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RoyalBlue said:

    JackW said:

    I would have made a great spy.

    I'm multilingual, I'm the king of subtlety and nuance, great on my feet.

    I wouldn't fall for honey traps either.

    I think we should be especially cautious of PBers with links to the Russian embassy .... honey traps, hair treatments and the like ....

    A thorough rummage through the PB archives is in order ....
    I have only been to the embassy once, as a family member was receiving a decoration. It’s a lovely building.
    Kindly leave your details with the clerk ....
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    JackW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    JackW said:

    I would have made a great spy.

    I'm multilingual, I'm the king of subtlety and nuance, great on my feet.

    I wouldn't fall for honey traps either.

    I think we should be especially cautious of PBers with links to the Russian embassy .... honey traps, hair treatments and the like ....

    A thorough rummage through the PB archives is in order ....
    I have only been to the embassy once, as a family member was receiving a decoration. It’s a lovely building.
    Kindly leave your details with the clerk ....
    Konyechno tovarish :wink:
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    When were you last subjected to a customs search which would have detected small quantities of any of these things as you entered the UK?
    What you mean you don't go down the red channel when you are carrying a deadly nerve agent for an enemy state?
    :):lol::lol:

    A policeman is also fighting for his life, according to the papers. God knows who else was put at risk. Not just the NHS staff but those in the restaurant, people walking roundabout, children etc. An assassination attempt which puts ordinary members of the public at risk is pretty bloody close to a terrorist attack, frankly.
    And what will we do about it? Sweet FA

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,269
    RoyalBlue said:

    I cannot think of any better advert for doing a law degree.

    https://twitter.com/moylato/status/970996163276169216

    Edit - Hold up, the Bulgarians do a degree in firefighting?

    Since when is geography a social science?
    Socialist Science :)
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    When were you last subjected to a customs search which would have detected small quantities of any of these things as you entered the UK?
    What you mean you don't go down the red channel when you are carrying a deadly nerve agent for an enemy state?
    :):lol::lol:

    A policeman is also fighting for his life, according to the papers. God knows who else was put at risk. Not just the NHS staff but those in the restaurant, people walking roundabout, children etc. An assassination attempt which puts ordinary members of the public at risk is pretty bloody close to a terrorist attack, frankly.
    And what will we do about it? Sweet FA

    What can we do about it?
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    When were you last subjected to a customs search which would have detected small quantities of any of these things as you entered the UK?
    What you mean you don't go down the red channel when you are carrying a deadly nerve agent for an enemy state?
    :):lol::lol:

    A policeman is also fighting for his life, according to the papers. God knows who else was put at risk. Not just the NHS staff but those in the restaurant, people walking roundabout, children etc. An assassination attempt which puts ordinary members of the public at risk is pretty bloody close to a terrorist attack, frankly.
    And what will we do about it? Sweet FA

    Perhaps the best way of getting back at Putin is to nullify the referendum.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    rcs1000 said:
    I think that's a hopelessly optimistic outlook, trade becomes a zero sum game when a few major players treat it as such. In an abstract the theory that trade is a positive for everyone is true, in the real world that isn't the case. When you have China subsidising their industries, stealing IP and manipulating their currency in order to gain over and above what their "true" value is I think the other players are entitled to fight back.

    In the same sense that Germany plays by a beggar thy neighbour rule within the Eurozone, China does within the world system.

    As I said before, it will be interesting to see whether the US will make any difference.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,202
    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    When were you last subjected to a customs search which would have detected small quantities of any of these things as you entered the UK?
    What you mean you don't go down the red channel when you are carrying a deadly nerve agent for an enemy state?
    :):lol::lol:

    A policeman is also fighting for his life, according to the papers. God knows who else was put at risk. Not just the NHS staff but those in the restaurant, people walking roundabout, children etc. An assassination attempt which puts ordinary members of the public at risk is pretty bloody close to a terrorist attack, frankly.
    And what will we do about it? Sweet FA

    Now is the time to use those Unexplained Wealth Orders.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    When were you last subjected to a customs search which would have detected small quantities of any of these things as you entered the UK?
    What you mean you don't go down the red channel when you are carrying a deadly nerve agent for an enemy state?
    :):lol::lol:

    A policeman is also fighting for his life, according to the papers. God knows who else was put at risk. Not just the NHS staff but those in the restaurant, people walking roundabout, children etc. An assassination attempt which puts ordinary members of the public at risk is pretty bloody close to a terrorist attack, frankly.
    And what will we do about it? Sweet FA

    Perhaps the best way of getting back at Putin is to nullify the referendum.
    Any excuse Mike eh
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    dixiedean said:

    On topic: although the narrative is, quite justifiably, that Theresa May badly screwed up the campaign, it is always worth reminding ourselves that the Tory vote actually held up, and it was Jeremy Corbyn's quite astonishing feat of hoovering up votes from the LibDems, Greens and to an extent UKIP which was unexpected. To be honest I still don't really understand it, and I'm not sure anyone else does either. For that reason, I don't think it's easy to predict whether he can repeat the trick next time.

    But it is super easy to explain and understand. A big Tory majority simply terrifies non-Tories...Labour voting was the only way to stop it in most constituencies.
    This visceral dislike remains a mystery to many Conservatives.
    So if the narrative next time is that Corbyn is ahead, or at least that it will be competitive, that motivation will disappear?
    The trouble with that type of argument, is knowing how far it recurses. How many anti-tories will think that other anti-tories will have stood down because Corbyn looks competitive and that it is therefore more important than ever to vote for Corbyn?
    I think it is easy to be too cynical and negative. I went into the 2017 campaign feeling negative about just about everything and deciding to cast my vote to kick the Tories for the mess. It seemed obvious that such a vote should be for the Lib Dems who were in 2nd place in my neck of the woods.

    But as the campaign went on the Labour Party's pitch was just so compelling. They had a manifesto with a programme. They were out doing the rallies - coverage of which I found very appealing. In fact towards the end when there was a photo of Corbyn speaking to a huge crowd when a rainbow appeared was really moving. It felt really genuine. This is what a political SHOULD be like. The movement in the polls made me wonder if they just might pull it off after all, and if they did I wanted to be a part of it.
    A rainbow, eh? And all those pots of gold at the end of it that Corbyn was offering. They were genuine and moving too, I'll bet.
    It better be genuine. McDonnell has already spent it.
    If you miss out on the story you aren't really understanding what politics is all about. Bitter partisan sniping just turns people off.
    If partisan sniping is ruled out on pb.com, we'd reduce the number of posts by about 90%.........
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    Well, if you are going to get whacked with a nerve agent, then just a stone's throw from Porton Down is probably as lucky a break as you could get.....
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,978
    I don't want to over-excite the site, but if you want to know the detail of the Renault blowing its rear, well...
    https://twitter.com/theWPTformula/status/971424636360683520

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:
    Were you following Rolf Degen before I started posting his tweets on here a few weeks ago?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105
    On topic (I know, how very dare I....)

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2018
    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    On topic: although the narrative is, quite justifiably, that Theresa May badly screwed up the campaign, it is always worth reminding ourselves that the Tory vote actually held up, and it was Jeremy Corbyn's quite astonishing feat of hoovering up votes from the LibDems, Greens and to an extent UKIP which was unexpected. To be honest I still don't really understand it, and I'm not sure anyone else does either. For that reason, I don't think it's easy to predict whether he can repeat the trick next time.

    But it is super easy to explain and understand. A big Tory majority simply terrifies non-Tories...Labour voting was the only way to stop it in most constituencies.
    This visceral dislike remains a mystery to many Conservatives.
    And ANY Corbyn majority terrifies non-Socialists. Last time ANY level of Labour majority was a nonsense, as all - Labour candidates included - agreed.

    Next time? Not so much....
    You are reinforcing my point there. The 2 parties are so far apart now that one is forced to choose. I understand the argument that Corbyn maxed out his vote last time. The problem is that the Conservatives probably did so too.
    The turnout in many Conservative seats was slightly disappointing, which suggests they didn't max out their popular vote, although if true it obviously wouldn't help them so much in marginal seats. For instance 2017 was the first time turnout was lower in Southend West than Hackney North. There are other examples.
    That assumes those in safe Conservative seats who didn't vote were Conservatives. That does not necessarily follow.
    I'm not saying the Tories would have got a higher share of the vote in seats like Southend West if the turnout had been higher, but they probably would have got more votes overall in line with their share in that constituency if it had been higher, adding to their overall popular vote total. In other words if the turnout had been higher it's unlikely the Tory share would have been much different to what it in those seats.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Evening all :)

    Massively off-topic but please bear with me - I'd be interested in other people's experiences and thoughts.

    My father will be 90 in May but moved into a residential care home last November - this isn't about the care home which does a wonderful job. His physical (not mental) deterioration has left him wheelchair bound and in constant need of care.

    Some years ago, after my mother's death, we drew up a Power of Attorney which we duly registered in the event of Dad becoming mentally or physically incapacitated. Until last autumn, I'd never used it apart from getting it re-registered with the Office of the Public Guardian. It's one of the older PoA that controls financial, not health matters.

    Since Dad went into the home I've had to notify all the agencies with whom he has a relationship that he has moved, the house will need to be sold to pay the care home fees and so on.

    What annoys me is or have been the reactions of various institutions. Some have accepted it verbally - others have asked for a scanned copy of the Power of Attorney, others won't accept an electronic copy but will accept a photocopy if sent through snail mail. One has refused even that and insisted I go to a solicitor to confirm the copy before they will do anything to help me.

    I find it absurd there is no consistent standard across financial, utility and other institutions when dealing with Powers of Attorney. It has wasted my time and cost me money especially when dealing with organisations where the response has been inconsistent.

    In an ageing society, more and more people will be taking on this financial responsibility and control for elderly relatives - why can't all these groups agree a single protocol whatever that may be so we all know where we stand as regards dealing with all these organisations when a Power of Attorney needs to be activated and used ?

    Rant over - you can all go back to arguing about Brexit, slagging off foreigners and talking about Formula 1.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited March 2018
    stodge said:

    I find it absurd there is no consistent standard across financial, utility and other institutions when dealing with Powers of Attorney. It has wasted my time and cost me money especially when dealing with organisations where the response has been inconsistent.

    In an ageing society, more and more people will be taking on this financial responsibility and control for elderly relatives - why can't all these groups agree a single protocol whatever that may be so we all know where we stand as regards dealing with all these organisations when a Power of Attorney needs to be activated and used ?

    Rant over - you can all go back to arguing about Brexit, slagging off foreigners and talking about Formula 1.

    That seems like a very reasonable point to me, and exactly the sort of thing government ought to be able to sort out, making life a little bit easier for a lot of people at a trying time.

    It's probably worth dropping an email to your MP about it.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056

    On topic (I know, how very dare I....)

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    I don't think that explains it.

    Guardian poll

    People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.

    Support: 55%

    Oppose: 15%
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710

    I would have made a great spy.

    I'm multilingual, I'm the king of subtlety and nuance, great on my feet.

    I wouldn't fall for honey traps either.

    Aren't the best spies self effacing types? I've read the Le Carré novels so I know all about it.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658

    On topic (I know, how very dare I....)

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105

    On topic (I know, how very dare I....)

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    It was certainly played back to me on the doorstep that she said she wouldn't call an early election. It made people more inclined to look at her faults than before. It must have been part of the reason that she took virtually none of the undecideds - who during the campaign broke massively to Labour.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105

    On topic (I know, how very dare I....)

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    I don't think that explains it.

    Guardian poll

    People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.

    Support: 55%

    Oppose: 15%
    Doesn't count for much if those 15% all felt less well inclined to Theresa May...... And 40% of those 55% could have been ultimate Labour voters going "Yippee - an unexpected chance to kick out the Tories!"
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    On topic (I know, how very dare I....)

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    That's precisely why TM should have gone for the shortest possible campaign. It was in the last couple of weeks when things really starting going wrong for her.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Massively off-topic but please bear with me - I'd be interested in other people's experiences and thoughts.

    My father will be 90 in May but moved into a residential care home last November - this isn't about the care home which does a wonderful job. His physical (not mental) deterioration has left him wheelchair bound and in constant need of care.

    Some years ago, after my mother's death, we drew up a Power of Attorney which we duly registered in the event of Dad becoming mentally or physically incapacitated. Until last autumn, I'd never used it apart from getting it re-registered with the Office of the Public Guardian. It's one of the older PoA that controls financial, not health matters.

    Since Dad went into the home I've had to notify all the agencies with whom he has a relationship that he has moved, the house will need to be sold to pay the care home fees and so on.

    What annoys me is or have been the reactions of various institutions. Some have accepted it verbally - others have asked for a scanned copy of the Power of Attorney, others won't accept an electronic copy but will accept a photocopy if sent through snail mail. One has refused even that and insisted I go to a solicitor to confirm the copy before they will do anything to help me.

    I find it absurd there is no consistent standard across financial, utility and other institutions when dealing with Powers of Attorney. It has wasted my time and cost me money especially when dealing with organisations where the response has been inconsistent.

    In an ageing society, more and more people will be taking on this financial responsibility and control for elderly relatives - why can't all these groups agree a single protocol whatever that may be so we all know where we stand as regards dealing with all these organisations when a Power of Attorney needs to be activated and used ?

    Rant over - you can all go back to arguing about Brexit, slagging off foreigners and talking about Formula 1.

    Sorry to hear about your father's difficulties Mr Stodge, and the banalities of bureaucracy.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955

    On topic (I know, how very dare I....)

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Indeed. Compounded by the fact that most people don't give politics much thought day-to-day (strange, but true).
    No election was remotely on the horizon...so no need to think too hard about it.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Mortimer said:


    Sorry to hear about your father's difficulties Mr Stodge, and the banalities of bureaucracy.

    Thanks for the kind word, my friend.

    I'm annoyed because it's primarily the private sector that is causing me problems with each organisation having rules which are not explained and are applied inconsistently.

    It's not a political point really a suggestion that I think could help a lot of people.

  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    AndyJS said:

    On topic (I know, how very dare I....)

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    That's precisely why TM should have gone for the shortest possible campaign. It was in the last couple of weeks when things really starting going wrong for her.
    It is was the minimum permitted by the dreadful FTPA.

    Three weeks from dissolution to election would have been perfect.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Massively off-topic but please bear with me - I'd be interested in other people's experiences and thoughts.

    My father will be 90 in May but moved into a residential care home last November - this isn't about the care home which does a wonderful job. His physical (not mental) deterioration has left him wheelchair bound and in constant need of care.

    Some years ago, after my mother's death, we drew up a Power of Attorney which we duly registered in the event of Dad becoming mentally or physically incapacitated. Until last autumn, I'd never used it apart from getting it re-registered with the Office of the Public Guardian. It's one of the older PoA that controls financial, not health matters.

    Since Dad went into the home I've had to notify all the agencies with whom he has a relationship that he has moved, the house will need to be sold to pay the care home fees and so on.

    What annoys me is or have been the reactions of various institutions. Some have accepted it verbally - others have asked for a scanned copy of the Power of Attorney, others won't accept an electronic copy but will accept a photocopy if sent through snail mail. One has refused even that and insisted I go to a solicitor to confirm the copy before they will do anything to help me.

    I find it absurd there is no consistent standard across financial, utility and other institutions when dealing with Powers of Attorney. It has wasted my time and cost me money especially when dealing with organisations where the response has been inconsistent.

    In an ageing society, more and more people will be taking on this financial responsibility and control for elderly relatives - why can't all these groups agree a single protocol whatever that may be so we all know where we stand as regards dealing with all these organisations when a Power of Attorney needs to be activated and used ?

    Rant over - you can all go back to arguing about Brexit, slagging off foreigners and talking about Formula 1.

    It's always been my practice to provide copies of powers of attorney to clients, with each page certified as being a true copy of the original.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,937
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Massively off-topic but please bear with me - I'd be interested in other people's experiences and thoughts.

    My father will be 90 in May but moved into a residential care home last November - this isn't about the care home which does a wonderful job. His physical (not mental) deterioration has left him wheelchair bound and in constant need of care.

    Some years ago, after my mother's death, we drew up a Power of Attorney which we duly registered in the event of Dad becoming mentally or physically incapacitated. Until last autumn, I'd never used it apart from getting it re-registered with the Office of the Public Guardian. It's one of the older PoA that controls financial, not health matters.

    Since Dad went into the home I've had to notify all the agencies with whom he has a relationship that he has moved, the house will need to be sold to pay the care home fees and so on.

    What annoys me is or have been the reactions of various institutions. Some have accepted it verbally - others have asked for a scanned copy of the Power of Attorney, others won't accept an electronic copy but will accept a photocopy if sent through snail mail. One has refused even that and insisted I go to a solicitor to confirm the copy before they will do anything to help me.

    I find it absurd there is no consistent standard across financial, utility and other institutions when dealing with Powers of Attorney. It has wasted my time and cost me money especially when dealing with organisations where the response has been inconsistent.

    In an ageing society, more and more people will be taking on this financial responsibility and control for elderly relatives - why can't all these groups agree a single protocol whatever that may be so we all know where we stand as regards dealing with all these organisations when a Power of Attorney needs to be activated and used ?

    Rant over - you can all go back to arguing about Brexit, slagging off foreigners and talking about Formula 1.

    It is atrocious. We had similar issues with my mother in law when she went into a home after developing dementia.

    I have to say now, be prepared for it to be even worse as and when he passes away. Some organisations - particularly public utilities and banks - really are atrocious when it comes to dealing with those recently bereaved. And that is in spite of them having specialist departments set up for such events. Indeed I found there was far more sympathy and understanding from the day to day bank staff than there was from the specialist bereavement staff.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited March 2018
    IMO it wasn’t just th early election call, but the tories had no real retail offer...in fact they came up with the Gerard ratner of offers....and they didn’t bother to attack corbyns offers until way too late.

    It beyond me why they didn’t KISS and come out with 4-5 basic core stuff that wasn't brexit like £200 million a week extra for nhs by 2022 etc
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917


    It was certainly played back to me on the doorstep that she said she wouldn't call an early election

    And that was just Kevin & Hazel's reaction having to reorganise the wedding lol
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    I sincerely hope our 92 year old Queen has been practicing her genuflecting. She wisely didn't allow the cameras to view her forced humiliation. Not so Theresa May. Definitely a good day for Corbyn
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    Ricin can easily be made from ricinis communis, which is grown widely in this country.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Sean_F said:


    It's always been my practice to provide copies of powers of attorney to clients, with each page certified as being a true copy of the original.

    Maybe I should come to you, Sean, but I doubt I could afford your wisdom.

    That's basically what one financial institution has asked for and I went to a bank today and they refused to help because even though my father is an account holder, it wasn't related to the account.

    IF everyone wanted copies with "wet signatures" as I believe it's termed, that's fine but no one told me in advance so I simply have the original which apparently I could post to them (not kidding).

    It's the lack of uniformity and clarity that annoys me.

  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    IMO it wasn’t just th early election call, but the tories had no real retail offer...in fact they came up with the Gerard ratner of offers....and they didn’t bother to attack corbyns offers until way too late.

    It beyond me why they didn’t KISS and come out with 4-5 basic core stuff that wasn't brexit like £200 million a week extra for nhs by 2022 etc

    To be fair it does help if the PM doesn't spring an election upon you for no apparent reason whatsoever.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    stodge said:

    Mortimer said:


    Sorry to hear about your father's difficulties Mr Stodge, and the banalities of bureaucracy.

    Thanks for the kind word, my friend.

    I'm annoyed because it's primarily the private sector that is causing me problems with each organisation having rules which are not explained and are applied inconsistently.

    It's not a political point really a suggestion that I think could help a lot of people.

    I do wonder if the private sector practices are underpinned by the interpretation of government regulation (e.g. relating to data protection, privacy and money laundering - though probably not the latter in this case) - but I'm lucky to work in an industry without too much regulation, so might be barking up the wrong tree here.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    RoyalBlue said:

    AndyJS said:

    On topic (I know, how very dare I....)

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    That's precisely why TM should have gone for the shortest possible campaign. It was in the last couple of weeks when things really starting going wrong for her.
    It is was the minimum permitted by the dreadful FTPA.

    Three weeks from dissolution to election would have been perfect.
    Is there anything to stop the FTPA being repealed?
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Roger said:

    I sincerely hope our 92 year old Queen has been practicing her genuflecting. She wisely didn't allow the cameras to view her forced humiliation. Not so Theresa May. Definitely a good day for Corbyn

    Eh?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    Ricin can easily be made from ricinis communis, which is grown widely in this country.
    Bloody hell, that's a worrying piece of info!
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    RoyalBlue said:

    AndyJS said:

    On topic (I know, how very dare I....)

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    That's precisely why TM should have gone for the shortest possible campaign. It was in the last couple of weeks when things really starting going wrong for her.
    It is was the minimum permitted by the dreadful FTPA.

    Three weeks from dissolution to election would have been perfect.
    Is there anything to stop the FTPA being repealed?
    Not as far as I know - although repealing it doesn't reinstate the royal prerogative.

    Another mess the posh boys left for the rest of us to work out..... :)
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    edited March 2018
    stodge said:

    Sean_F said:


    It's always been my practice to provide copies of powers of attorney to clients, with each page certified as being a true copy of the original.

    Maybe I should come to you, Sean, but I doubt I could afford your wisdom.

    That's basically what one financial institution has asked for and I went to a bank today and they refused to help because even though my father is an account holder, it wasn't related to the account.

    IF everyone wanted copies with "wet signatures" as I believe it's termed, that's fine but no one told me in advance so I simply have the original which apparently I could post to them (not kidding).

    It's the lack of uniformity and clarity that annoys me.

    I would expect any institution which you draw money out of to require a solicitor-certified copy of the power. In fairness to the institutions, the degree of fraudulent misuse of powers of attorney is immense, to the extent that one judge in the Court of Protection said he'd advise people against making them.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    AndyJS said:

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    That's precisely why TM should have gone for the shortest possible campaign. It was in the last couple of weeks when things really starting going wrong for her.
    Where the Tory campaign went wrong for the Tories was in focusing on Mrs May rather than a team of competent Conservatives (no comments needed...), so that the whole campaign ended up centred on setting up the poor woman effectively as a supreme dictator in waiting.

    I know that her behaviour before the election gave every support to this impression; and her behaviour afterwards has just given the impression that she thinks she does indeed have dictatorial powers, both here in the UK and in the EU - if not the entire world. So naturally enough, people voted against her. Nothing to do with Corbyn - he was just the instrument that came most readily to hand last time round.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    FF43 said:

    I would have made a great spy.

    I'm multilingual, I'm the king of subtlety and nuance, great on my feet.

    I wouldn't fall for honey traps either.

    Aren't the best spies self effacing types? I've read the Le Carré novels so I know all about it.
    People get confused between agents, who are usually natives, and recruiters/agent-runners who are usually civil servants.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    PClipp said:

    AndyJS said:

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    That's precisely why TM should have gone for the shortest possible campaign. It was in the last couple of weeks when things really starting going wrong for her.
    Where the Tory campaign went wrong for the Tories was in focusing on Mrs May rather than a team of competent Conservatives (no comments needed...), so that the whole campaign ended up centred on setting up the poor woman effectively as a supreme dictator in waiting.

    I know that her behaviour before the election gave every support to this impression; and her behaviour afterwards has just given the impression that she thinks she does indeed have dictatorial powers, both here in the UK and in the EU - if not the entire world. So naturally enough, people voted against her. Nothing to do with Corbyn - he was just the instrument that came most readily to hand last time round.
    There were problems with the product, not just the packaging.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    DavidL said:

    May was right to call an election.
    Strategically, she did exactly as I predicted and indeed suggested on this forum.

    Tack hard, to ensure you have the backing of the nut-loops, then call an election to raise your majority so that you can then tack soft.

    The problem was not the election.
    The problem was her bullshit campaign.

    Having cobbled together a majority, she’s more reliant on the freak shakes than ever,but she’s still essentially carrying out the strategy above.

    Her focus is above all on securing an agreement on Brexit, and beyond that she will likely stand down. She will not concede a “referendum on the deal” unless parliamentary arithmetic forces her to.

    Her "bullshit" campaign did not do anything to diminish the Tory vote which remained consistent throughout. It did, rather weirdly, help concentrate the opposition but I think Corbyn deserves more credit than May blame for that.
    That's simply not true. Con was polling around 42% before the election was called. That shot up to about 47% more or less straight away but then dwindled back to 43% or so by election day. Certainly, Labour's share changed by more but the Tory one wasn't static either.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
    Yes, I can't believe that anyone can claim polling was flat. It rose and rose and then collapsed post manifesto launch.

    I charted it at the time.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Sean_F said:


    I would expect any institution which you draw money out of to require a solicitor-certified copy of the power.

    To clarify, the original has that as well as the stamp of the Office of Public Guardian on each page. Every organisation (bar one) has asked for the Power of Attorney. Some have accepted a scanned copy sent electronically, others have been happy to accept a photocopy sent by snail mail and now one has refused even that saying I either have to send the original or get a copy re-notarised by one of a number of professionals all of whom will want a fortune for their time.

    I won't send the original because I can't afford to lose it - why a stamped photocopy is unacceptable baffles me.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917

    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    Ricin can easily be made from ricinis communis, which is grown widely in this country.
    Bloody hell, that's a worrying piece of info!
    Just be sure to use a different pestle and mortar for food prep
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    PClipp said:

    AndyJS said:

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    That's precisely why TM should have gone for the shortest possible campaign. It was in the last couple of weeks when things really starting going wrong for her.
    Where the Tory campaign went wrong for the Tories was in focusing on Mrs May rather than a team of competent Conservatives (no comments needed...), so that the whole campaign ended up centred on setting up the poor woman effectively as a supreme dictator in waiting.

    I know that her behaviour before the election gave every support to this impression; and her behaviour afterwards has just given the impression that she thinks she does indeed have dictatorial powers, both here in the UK and in the EU - if not the entire world. So naturally enough, people voted against her. Nothing to do with Corbyn - he was just the instrument that came most readily to hand last time round.
    I know it's an article of faith amongst PB tories that Corbyn is toxic and he cannot have attracted any votes but you continue to believe that at your peril.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    Ricin can easily be made from ricinis communis, which is grown widely in this country.
    Bloody hell, that's a worrying piece of info!
    Just be sure to use a different pestle and mortar for food prep
    TBH I wasn't planning to try that recipe!
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787



    It is atrocious. We had similar issues with my mother in law when she went into a home after developing dementia.

    I have to say now, be prepared for it to be even worse as and when he passes away. Some organisations - particularly public utilities and banks - really are atrocious when it comes to dealing with those recently bereaved. And that is in spite of them having specialist departments set up for such events. Indeed I found there was far more sympathy and understanding from the day to day bank staff than there was from the specialist bereavement staff.

    OTOH when my father passed away two years ago, I found settling his affairs to be pretty straightforward. If anything, I'd say some institutions were a little too co-operative, such as BT who were quite happy to cancel his landline with just a call (on it) from me: didn't ask for any corroboration at all.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    PClipp said:

    AndyJS said:

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    That's precisely why TM should have gone for the shortest possible campaign. It was in the last couple of weeks when things really starting going wrong for her.
    Where the Tory campaign went wrong for the Tories was in focusing on Mrs May rather than a team of competent Conservatives (no comments needed...), so that the whole campaign ended up centred on setting up the poor woman effectively as a supreme dictator in waiting.

    I know that her behaviour before the election gave every support to this impression; and her behaviour afterwards has just given the impression that she thinks she does indeed have dictatorial powers, both here in the UK and in the EU - if not the entire world. So naturally enough, people voted against her. Nothing to do with Corbyn - he was just the instrument that came most readily to hand last time round.
    I know it's an article of faith amongst PB tories that Corbyn is toxic and he cannot have attracted any votes but you continue to believe that at your peril.
    Yes, complacency abounds. People like the hope'n'change rhetoric, as opposed to May's dreary technocratic tinkering.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    What a waste of time those numpties behind the goal are.
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    What a waste of time those numpties behind the goal are.

    They are as useful as tits on a fish.

    The referee, assistant referee, and the extra official all had clear views of that penalty.
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    AndyJS said:

    On topic (I know, how very dare I....)

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    That's precisely why TM should have gone for the shortest possible campaign. It was in the last couple of weeks when things really starting going wrong for her.
    Agree.

    Look at the local mayoral elections around a month before - good results for the Conservatives, indicating that the wheels only came off afterwards.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2018
    PClipp said:

    AndyJS said:

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    That's precisely why TM should have gone for the shortest possible campaign. It was in the last couple of weeks when things really starting going wrong for her.
    Where the Tory campaign went wrong for the Tories was in focusing on Mrs May rather than a team of competent Conservatives (no comments needed...), so that the whole campaign ended up centred on setting up the poor woman effectively as a supreme dictator in waiting.

    I know that her behaviour before the election gave every support to this impression; and her behaviour afterwards has just given the impression that she thinks she does indeed have dictatorial powers, both here in the UK and in the EU - if not the entire world. So naturally enough, people voted against her. Nothing to do with Corbyn - he was just the instrument that came most readily to hand last time round.
    4 weeks into the campaign she was still registering 20% leads with more than one polling company. The election could have been held at that point if she hadn't decided to have a 6 week campaign.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2017
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    Just seen the "mansplaining" clip from PMQs. As much as I detest such phrases, I think Corbyn deserved it. His mistake was not to follow up his reference to International Women's Day with a serious question relevant to that topic. Instead, he went off on something about the Saudis (which ironically have become more liberal in terms of women's rights).

    Corbyn wasn't guilty of mansplaining. He was guilty of virtue signalling.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    May was right to call an election.
    Strategically, she did exactly as I predicted and indeed suggested on this forum.

    Tack hard, to ensure you have the backing of the nut-loops, then call an election to raise your majority so that you can then tack soft.

    The problem was not the election.
    The problem was her bullshit campaign.

    Having cobbled together a majority, she’s more reliant on the freak shakes than ever,but she’s still essentially carrying out the strategy above.

    Her focus is above all on securing an agreement on Brexit, and beyond that she will likely stand down. She will not concede a “referendum on the deal” unless parliamentary arithmetic forces her to.

    Her "bullshit" campaign did not do anything to diminish the Tory vote which remained consistent throughout. It did, rather weirdly, help concentrate the opposition but I think Corbyn deserves more credit than May blame for that.
    That's simply not true. Con was polling around 42% before the election was called. That shot up to about 47% more or less straight away but then dwindled back to 43% or so by election day. Certainly, Labour's share changed by more but the Tory one wasn't static either.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
    Yes, I can't believe that anyone can claim polling was flat. It rose and rose and then collapsed post manifesto launch.

    I charted it at the time.
    Interesting that the last 15 opinion polls — the ones conducted wholly in June — gave the Tories an average of 42.8% in Britain, and they polled 43.43% in Britain. They did better than the polls were forecasting although only slightly. The polling problems were almost entirely to do with the Labour performance being underestimated.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Were you following Rolf Degen before I started posting his tweets on here a few weeks ago?
    No. But you and a (slightly nutty) friend of mine both follow him.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    AndyJS said:

    PClipp said:

    AndyJS said:

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    That's precisely why TM should have gone for the shortest possible campaign. It was in the last couple of weeks when things really starting going wrong for her.
    Where the Tory campaign went wrong for the Tories was in focusing on Mrs May rather than a team of competent Conservatives (no comments needed...), so that the whole campaign ended up centred on setting up the poor woman effectively as a supreme dictator in waiting.

    I know that her behaviour before the election gave every support to this impression; and her behaviour afterwards has just given the impression that she thinks she does indeed have dictatorial powers, both here in the UK and in the EU - if not the entire world. So naturally enough, people voted against her. Nothing to do with Corbyn - he was just the instrument that came most readily to hand last time round.
    4 weeks into the campaign she was still registering 20% leads with more than one polling company. The election could have been held at that point if she hadn't decided to have a 6 week campaign.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2017
    I thought the 6 week campaign was dicated by the FTPA
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189

    AndyJS said:

    PClipp said:

    AndyJS said:

    The ultimate failure with the polling was the underlying question "IF there was a general election today...." To get to that VERY BIG IF, you had to climb over the hurdle that Theresa May had said there would be no early General Election. So it was an entirely theoretical situation.

    Problem came when Theresa May called an election - she broke her word. That put a huge negative into the mix that was not there in the pre-election polling numbers. So by the very act of calling an election, she dismantled the underlying basis for her good numbers - that people had believed her, but then no longer did.

    You would have thought some clever folks at the heart of Government might have spotted that.....

    Nah - in the week after the election was called the only movement was an increase in Tory support. It was only once the campaign was well underway that Labour started gaining ground. In fact, Tory support didn't really fall much through the campaign (45% at the outset, 43.5% actual result); it was Labour's gain in support which lost TMay her majority.
    That's precisely why TM should have gone for the shortest possible campaign. It was in the last couple of weeks when things really starting going wrong for her.
    Where the Tory campaign went wrong for the Tories was in focusing on Mrs May rather than a team of competent Conservatives (no comments needed...), so that the whole campaign ended up centred on setting up the poor woman effectively as a supreme dictator in waiting.

    I know that her behaviour before the election gave every support to this impression; and her behaviour afterwards has just given the impression that she thinks she does indeed have dictatorial powers, both here in the UK and in the EU - if not the entire world. So naturally enough, people voted against her. Nothing to do with Corbyn - he was just the instrument that came most readily to hand last time round.
    4 weeks into the campaign she was still registering 20% leads with more than one polling company. The election could have been held at that point if she hadn't decided to have a 6 week campaign.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2017
    I thought the 6 week campaign was dicated by the FTPA
    Indirectly, I think. They had to leave time to no confidence themselves had Labour not played ball. That would have been a laugh.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    Around 50,000 voters are eligible to take part in tomorrow's eight local government by-elections. The parliamentary electorate is usually slightly lower than the local election electorate.

    2017 parliamentary electorate for 8th March 2018 local by-elections:

    Bolton, Farnworth: 10,514
    Dacorum, Northchurch: 2,134
    East Hampshire, Petersfield Bell Hill: 1,924
    Harlow: Little Parndon & Hare Street: 5,845
    Medway, Rochester West: 8,524
    Nottingham, Wollaton West: 9,619
    Rutland, Oakham South East: 1,989
    Tameside, Droylsden East: 8,607

    Total: 49,156
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    rpjs said:



    It is atrocious. We had similar issues with my mother in law when she went into a home after developing dementia.

    I have to say now, be prepared for it to be even worse as and when he passes away. Some organisations - particularly public utilities and banks - really are atrocious when it comes to dealing with those recently bereaved. And that is in spite of them having specialist departments set up for such events. Indeed I found there was far more sympathy and understanding from the day to day bank staff than there was from the specialist bereavement staff.

    OTOH when my father passed away two years ago, I found settling his affairs to be pretty straightforward. If anything, I'd say some institutions were a little too co-operative, such as BT who were quite happy to cancel his landline with just a call (on it) from me: didn't ask for any corroboration at all.
    I regularly cancel peoples' utilities, just for fun. There's hardly any checking. Just call, and say you're moving.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    Ricin can easily be made from ricinis communis, which is grown widely in this country.
    Killing people is easy. Fortunately, most people aren't murderers.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    Interesting thread on evidence to the select committee today regarding the government's customs proposals:
    https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/971430988147494913
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    stodge said:

    Sean_F said:


    I would expect any institution which you draw money out of to require a solicitor-certified copy of the power.

    To clarify, the original has that as well as the stamp of the Office of Public Guardian on each page. Every organisation (bar one) has asked for the Power of Attorney. Some have accepted a scanned copy sent electronically, others have been happy to accept a photocopy sent by snail mail and now one has refused even that saying I either have to send the original or get a copy re-notarised by one of a number of professionals all of whom will want a fortune for their time.

    I won't send the original because I can't afford to lose it - why a stamped photocopy is unacceptable baffles me.

    I'd charge £10 for each copy that I certified. I don't think you'd find it too expensive.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,202

    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    Ricin can easily be made from ricinis communis, which is grown widely in this country.
    Bloody hell, that's a worrying piece of info!
    It's the castor oil plant. Widely available. Evergreen. Grows in shade. Has rather lovely flowers in winter. I have one in my garden.

    It can be a bit of a thug so does need pruning every so often.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Around 50,000 voters are eligible to take part in tomorrow's eight local government by-elections. The parliamentary electorate is usually slightly lower than the local election electorate.

    2017 parliamentary electorate for 8th March 2018 local by-elections:

    Bolton, Farnworth: 10,514
    Dacorum, Northchurch: 2,134
    East Hampshire, Petersfield Bell Hill: 1,924
    Harlow: Little Parndon & Hare Street: 5,845
    Medway, Rochester West: 8,524
    Nottingham, Wollaton West: 9,619
    Rutland, Oakham South East: 1,989
    Tameside, Droylsden East: 8,607

    Total: 49,156

    'Bus-Pass Elvis Party' are standing in Wollaton West.

    Upset alert?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    AndyJS said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    May was right to call an election.
    Strategically, she did exactly as I predicted and indeed suggested on this forum.

    Tack hard, to ensure you have the backing of the nut-loops, then call an election to raise your majority so that you can then tack soft.

    The problem was not the election.
    The problem was her bullshit campaign.

    Having cobbled together a majority, she’s more reliant on the freak shakes than ever,but she’s still essentially carrying out the strategy above.

    Her focus is above all on securing an agreement on Brexit, and beyond that she will likely stand down. She will not concede a “referendum on the deal” unless parliamentary arithmetic forces her to.

    Her "bullshit" campaign did not do anything to diminish the Tory vote which remained consistent throughout. It did, rather weirdly, help concentrate the opposition but I think Corbyn deserves more credit than May blame for that.
    That's simply not true. Con was polling around 42% before the election was called. That shot up to about 47% more or less straight away but then dwindled back to 43% or so by election day. Certainly, Labour's share changed by more but the Tory one wasn't static either.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
    Yes, I can't believe that anyone can claim polling was flat. It rose and rose and then collapsed post manifesto launch.

    I charted it at the time.
    Interesting that the last 15 opinion polls — the ones conducted wholly in June — gave the Tories an average of 42.8% in Britain, and they polled 43.43% in Britain. They did better than the polls were forecasting although only slightly. The polling problems were almost entirely to do with the Labour performance being underestimated.
    3 weeks to go, and Labour starting bounding forward. One week to go, their support had plateaued at about 36%, according to the polls. But, in reality, they were still advancing, to 41%.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    Floater said:
    I can believe he was not aware, although if the group was as obviously as bonkers as suggested, it doesn't exactly speak well that he didn't notice.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    Floater said:
    That the Tory press are shit scared of Jezza?


    No
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    tlg86 said:

    What a waste of time those numpties behind the goal are.

    There may have been an incident, somewhere, sometime, where they did something, but I have watched dozens of matches and even when they really are perfectly placed to weigh in on an incident they never seem to do it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    Floater said:
    That the Tory press are shit scared of Jezza?


    No
    We're back on the 'x is scared of y' nonsense stuff are we? Partisan press don't like people on the other side, it doesn't automatically mean when they report on something that person did it is because they are scared.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    kle4 said:

    Floater said:
    I can believe he was not aware, although if the group was as obviously as bonkers as suggested, it doesn't exactly speak well that he didn't notice.
    The story is that he left the group when it became clear there were some nutters posting KKK and neo Nazi stuff.

    I mean seriously.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guardian reporting a "nerve agent" has been used on Mr Skripal

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

    They are pinpointing VX or Sarin?

    If correct would this mean the UK has been the victim of a biological terrorist attack?

    I think that was pretty obvious given the description of the symptoms and the speed with which they were affected.
    How do they get these toxic agents into the country undetected?

    I could never understand how they got Plutonium into the country and managed to spread it all over London without anyone detecting it? Presumably all these toxic agents still have to be smuggled in through customs, etc?

    Or are these toxic substances already here in the country?
    Ricin can easily be made from ricinis communis, which is grown widely in this country.
    Bloody hell, that's a worrying piece of info!
    It's the castor oil plant. Widely available. Evergreen. Grows in shade. Has rather lovely flowers in winter. I have one in my garden.

    It can be a bit of a thug so does need pruning every so often.
    Ah right. Mrs P is the gardener in our household. Thuggish plants a seldom tolerated.
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