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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the EU hierarchy is losing supportive governments

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the EU hierarchy is losing supportive governments

One of the less attractive aspects of British Euroscepticism (a keenly-contested category) is the willingness of many supporters to see the imminent collapse of the EU with every electoral development around the continent. Last year, Eurosceptics were salivating at the prospect of Geert Wilders’ party topping the poll in the Dutch election. Thwarted on that front, nearly nine out of ten Leave cats who expressed a preference decided that Marine Le Pen’s election as French president would be best for Britain. But the French electorate stubbornly refused to go off the reservation.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 210
    First!
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 139
    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,949
    And yet, not one comment about 'why' this is happening to the EU...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    edited March 8
    Interesting of the core group of most pro EU European governments half were founder members of the EEC ie France, Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium and the Nerherlands and every one is currently in the Eurozone.

    Maybe the EU is focusing on its original foundations, with the exception of Italy and those most committed to Eurozone membership
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,487
    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    Interesting, but how is that different to Plaid? Is it that Plaid is not radical enough and is more gradualist?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,949

    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    Interesting, but how is that different to Plaid? Is it that Plaid is not radical enough and is more gradualist?
    Yep, seems strange say it wants to builda 'broader alliance', yet be more radical and nationalistic...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    The EU = Spurs

    Superficially attractive on the outside but in reality they have people who annoy good people.

    Dele Alli is just like Jean-Claude Juncker.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    edited March 8
    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    Probably good news for Unionists in Wales as it will split the nationalist vote under FPTP which is currently dominated by Plaid.

    Though of course with Plaid still nowhere near becoming the largest party in Wales in either Assembly or Westminster elections, Wales having voted Leave in the EU referendum like the rest of the UK and its economy tightly linked to England there is virtually zero demand for Welsh independence in the principality anyway
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited March 8
    Good morning all.

    Barbs aside, an interesting article. I remain slightly surprised that enlargement is back on the agenda, given some of the internal frictions.

    OT, this current predilection for creating new political parties puts me in mind of this;

    image
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. Slackbladder, it's the natural friction caused by two diametrically opposing forces. The EU must integrate because it wants to take lots of decisions, and that requires (in an over-sized confederation of 27/28) national power to be eroded and aggregated instead to the centre. At the same time, democratic freedom requires that the electorates of nation states have the capacity to elect and hold accountable those who wield power over them.

    The seeming answer would be to massively beef up the European Parliament. However, despite the wet dreams of bureaucratic buffoons you cannot simply wish away centuries of culture and identity. Not only that, freedom of action, to diverge or converge, is necessary for the flexibility required by the member states as their sizes, economies, cultures and demographics differ. Leaving aside that there is no European demos, the Parliament becoming powerful would simply lead to imposition of unwanted laws upon smaller nations that lack the representation to mount a parliamentary resistance.

    It's almost as if trying to integrate 27/28 countries into a new country by stealth, deception, and bureaucratic trickery is a bloody stupid idea.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    "nearly nine out of ten Leave cats who expressed a preference decided that Marine Le Pen’s election as French president would be best for Britain"

    Hiw many expressed a preference? One?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611

    The EU = Spurs

    Superficially attractive on the outside but in reality they have people who annoy good people.

    Dele Alli is just like Jean-Claude Juncker.

    The EU = Arsenal

    Its thinking underpinned by an old French guy, who should long ago have been abndoned to the history books.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,814

    Mr. Slackbladder, it's the natural friction caused by two diametrically opposing forces. The EU must integrate because it wants to take lots of decisions, and that requires (in an over-sized confederation of 27/28) national power to be eroded and aggregated instead to the centre. At the same time, democratic freedom requires that the electorates of nation states have the capacity to elect and hold accountable those who wield power over them.

    The seeming answer would be to massively beef up the European Parliament. However, despite the wet dreams of bureaucratic buffoons you cannot simply wish away centuries of culture and identity. Not only that, freedom of action, to diverge or converge, is necessary for the flexibility required by the member states as their sizes, economies, cultures and demographics differ. Leaving aside that there is no European demos, the Parliament becoming powerful would simply lead to imposition of unwanted laws upon smaller nations that lack the representation to mount a parliamentary resistance.

    It's almost as if trying to integrate 27/28 countries into a new country by stealth, deception, and bureaucratic trickery is a bloody stupid idea.

    Perhaps they need a Senate where all countries are represented equally regardless of size...

  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,072
    edited March 8
    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    If Brexit goes ahead the likelihood is that it'll be the collapse of the pound that'll bring us back and next time they'll demand we rejoin as full members and that'll include the Euro.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. Alex, I'm mildly surprised that hasn't been seriously suggested by the federalists.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    Firstly, it's by AEP, the doom-monger's doom-monger.

    Secondly, as Alastair points out, the EU is pretty much immune to sturm und drang within individual countries. Brexit is, as we can all see, extremely challenging in execution. A eurozone member, even one with Italy's economic clout, would find it even more difficult.

    Thirdly, from our purely selfish national interests, we would prefer the EU to prosper; some one has to buy (say) our genuine Cornish Pasties.

    There are some tricky waters for them to navigate; the proposed linking of economic aid to support for EU migrant policies is not sitting well with the Visegrad group, and Austria is likely to align with them on this issue.

    Based on the Commission's own reports, completing EMU and drawing other countries within the Eurozone is also likely to cause problems, even within the core group - Germany is singularly reluctant to shoulder its obligations.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,949
    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is.

    So is crack, doesn't mean its good for you.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,072
    edited March 8

    The EU = Spurs

    Superficially attractive on the outside but in reality they have people who annoy good people.

    Dele Alli is just like Jean-Claude Juncker.

    EU=Man City. Wealthy stable attractive and arguably the best club in the world.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,324
    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    If Brexit goes ahead the likelihood is that it'll be the collapse of the pound that'll bring us back and next time they'll demand we rejoin as full members and that'll include the Euro.

    Do you think Brexit is priced into the value of the pound, or do you expect it to fall once Brexit actually happens?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    edited March 8
    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    Half of column 4 isn't in the Euro.....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688
    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    If Brexit goes ahead the likelihood is that it'll be the collapse of the pound that'll bring us back and next time they'll demand we rejoin as full members and that'll include the Euro.

    You heard it from Rogerdamus first.

    So, the pound is bound to be safe.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,344
    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    I don't sing the national anthem a lot, but I don't remember anything about "our country" - seemed to be all about the health and even wealth (pouring precious goods on her head) of the Queen. Why would Ein Gwlad sound recognisable?

    There's the American "Our Country, 'Tis of Thee", of course, but that's not an anthem and a long way from Wales.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,949
    Roger said:

    The EU = Spurs

    Superficially attractive on the outside but in reality they have people who annoy good people.

    Dele Alli is just like Jean-Claude Juncker.

    EU=Man City. Wealthy stable attractive and arguably the best club in the world.
    And completely out of touch with it's community.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688

    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    Half of column 4 isn't in the Euro.....
    :)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,072
    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    If Brexit goes ahead the likelihood is that it'll be the collapse of the pound that'll bring us back and next time they'll demand we rejoin as full members and that'll include the Euro.

    Do you think Brexit is priced into the value of the pound, or do you expect it to fall once Brexit actually happens?
    I can't predict whether it'll drop further on that date. But it'll almost certainly be unstable which is the worst of all worlds.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,346
    edited March 8
    I had an interesting discussion with an EU fanatic last night. His view ... as the Remain vote was 48%, that should be taken heed of.
    "How?"
    A look of incomprehension.
    "We should only 52% leave?" I asked.
    "Yes."
    "So if Remain had won 52 - 48, then we should 48% leave?"
    "No, we stay."

    I understand his pain, but as the EU always assures us, we can't be half in and half out, even though that is the Labour position.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,090
    AEP has been forecasting EUdoom for a decade at least. Go back and read any articles of his from 2010 and you'll see exactly how useless a commentator he is.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    EU to Hungary: "Follow the rules!"
    Hungary to EU: "You didn't"

    https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-blasts-commissions-double-standards-on-martin-selmayr/
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 139

    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    I don't sing the national anthem a lot, but I don't remember anything about "our country" - seemed to be all about the health and even wealth (pouring precious goods on her head) of the Queen. Why would Ein Gwlad sound recognisable?

    There's the American "Our Country, 'Tis of Thee", of course, but that's not an anthem and a long way from Wales.
    I am sure you know this but I am talking about OUR national anthem not YOURS...and in particular the chorus line of Gwlad....Gwlad.... you know the one!
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 139
    HYUFD said:

    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    Probably good news for Unionists in Wales as it will split the nationalist vote under FPTP which is currently dominated by Plaid.

    Though of course with Plaid still nowhere near becoming the largest party in Wales in either Assembly or Westminster elections, Wales having voted Leave in the EU referendum like the rest of the UK and its economy tightly linked to England there is virtually zero demand for Welsh independence in the principality anyway
    Who said anything about FPTP?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,518

    Mr. Alex, I'm mildly surprised that hasn't been seriously suggested by the federalists.

    The idea of European Senate was very much in vogue in the late 90s/early 2000s. I'm sure a bicameral system for the European Parliament is an inevitability as it develops.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 120
    Putin and the kleptocrats are one and the same; Britain could end this vile nonsense at a stroke by freezing the squillions that the kleptocrats have stuffed in banks in the British Overseas territories. That would finish Putin off faster than any premier cru nerve gas. I am not quite sure why HMG are dithering around
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,344
    Penddu said:



    I am sure you know this but I am talking about OUR national anthem not YOURS...and in particular the chorus line of Gwlad....Gwlad.... you know the one!

    What? (bemused look) Something to do with sport?
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 139
    edited March 8

    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    Interesting, but how is that different to Plaid? Is it that Plaid is not radical enough and is more gradualist?
    Yep, seems strange say it wants to builda 'broader alliance', yet be more radical and nationalistic...
    Plaid has lost its way... it has ignored independence and given up on its radical nationalist agenda -trying to appeal to everyone but alienating everyone except a handful of feminists and greens.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,487
    John_M said:

    Firstly, it's by AEP, the doom-monger's doom-monger.

    Secondly, as Alastair points out, the EU is pretty much immune to sturm und drang within individual countries. Brexit is, as we can all see, extremely challenging in execution. A eurozone member, even one with Italy's economic clout, would find it even more difficult.

    Thirdly, from our purely selfish national interests, we would prefer the EU to prosper; some one has to buy (say) our genuine Cornish Pasties.

    There are some tricky waters for them to navigate; the proposed linking of economic aid to support for EU migrant policies is not sitting well with the Visegrad group, and Austria is likely to align with them on this issue.

    Based on the Commission's own reports, completing EMU and drawing other countries within the Eurozone is also likely to cause problems, even within the core group - Germany is singularly reluctant to shoulder its obligations.
    Yes, I know he is the voice of economic doom. But still, the potential of a parallel Italian currency and subsequent bond riot has got to be a serious problem for the Euro bankers.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 10,586
    My thanks to DavidL for linking to this spreadsheet yesterday:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbyindustryemp13

    I noticed that employment in the agricultural sector has increased by 30% from 2005 to 2017.

    Which is curious because output in the agricultural sector was the same in those two years:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/l2kl/pn2

    Yet we're told by the NFU and Guardian that there is a 'labour shortage' among agricultural workers and we need to have indentured labours from the third world to stop the countryside from becoming a wasteland of unharvested crops.

    I do hope no PBers have fallen for this pandering to exploitative and inefficient farmers.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,817
    Oh dear. Another Meeks classic. A potentially informative thread header ruined by his own bigotries and straw men.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    Our conclusion is that most estimates of the impact of Brexit in the UK, both short-term and long-term, have exaggerated the degree of potential damage to the UK economy. We stress at this point that this is not a politically-driven exercise. Most of the four-person team behind the research for this and our other papers voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would do so again if given the chance. Our purpose is rather to establish a sound basis for the ongoing debate on the likely potential economic impact of Brexit, and more generally to question the quality of economic analysis in dealing with major, macroeconomic policy issue like Brexit.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/08/how-the-economics-profession-got-it-wrong-on-brexit/
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434

    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    I don't sing the national anthem a lot, but I don't remember anything about "our country" - seemed to be all about the health and even wealth (pouring precious goods on her head) of the Queen. Why would Ein Gwlad sound recognisable?

    There's the American "Our Country, 'Tis of Thee", of course, but that's not an anthem and a long way from Wales.
    I think the Pàrtaidh Nàiseanta na h-Alba is wise to primarily use the English form of its name, the vernacular makes it easier for the wider world to ignore you. I agree about the anthem, though I know Gwlad from the pound coin (but didn't know what it meant). And the coincidence of ein/ein is unfortunate in making ein Gwlad look a bit like ein Reich.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470
    John_M said:

    Firstly, it's by AEP, the doom-monger's doom-monger.

    Secondly, as Alastair points out, the EU is pretty much immune to sturm und drang within individual countries. Brexit is, as we can all see, extremely challenging in execution. A eurozone member, even one with Italy's economic clout, would find it even more difficult.

    Thirdly, from our purely selfish national interests, we would prefer the EU to prosper; some one has to buy (say) our genuine Cornish Pasties.

    There are some tricky waters for them to navigate; the proposed linking of economic aid to support for EU migrant policies is not sitting well with the Visegrad group, and Austria is likely to align with them on this issue.

    Based on the Commission's own reports, completing EMU and drawing other countries within the Eurozone is also likely to cause problems, even within the core group - Germany is singularly reluctant to shoulder its obligations.
    When I was on holiday in Italy last year there was real evidence of anti EU feeling even to the extent the euro flag on the beaches around Genoa was replaced by the Union Jack. The receptionist at our hotel hated the EU and blamed it for all it's woes.

    I have no doubt that the new Italian government will be a thorn in the side of the EU with it's vow to disregard hundreds of EU regulations and question it's overall contributions.

    Time will tell but they are not going to be bowing at the Court of Monsieur Juncker

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    If Brexit goes ahead the likelihood is that it'll be the collapse of the pound that'll bring us back and next time they'll demand we rejoin as full members and that'll include the Euro.

    Your first point is wrong, neither Poland nor Hungary in column 4 or indeed Sweden and Denmark and the Czech Republic in column 3 are in the Euro.

    Your second paragraph is also wrong as if joining the Euro had been a requirement of joining the EU it would have been about 70% Leave and a Leave landslide
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,867

    The EU = Spurs

    Superficially attractive on the outside but in reality they have people who annoy good people.

    Dele Alli is just like Jean-Claude Juncker.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434
    Penddu said:

    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    I don't sing the national anthem a lot, but I don't remember anything about "our country" - seemed to be all about the health and even wealth (pouring precious goods on her head) of the Queen. Why would Ein Gwlad sound recognisable?

    There's the American "Our Country, 'Tis of Thee", of course, but that's not an anthem and a long way from Wales.
    I am sure you know this but I am talking about OUR national anthem not YOURS...and in particular the chorus line of Gwlad....Gwlad.... you know the one!
    You saying the national anthem is not Men of Harlech? Cwm on, you cannot be serious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    edited March 8
    Penddu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    Probably good news for Unionists in Wales as it will split the nationalist vote under FPTP which is currently dominated by Plaid.

    Though of course with Plaid still nowhere near becoming the largest party in Wales in either Assembly or Westminster elections, Wales having voted Leave in the EU referendum like the rest of the UK and its economy tightly linked to England there is virtually zero demand for Welsh independence in the principality anyway
    Who said anything about FPTP?
    Well it is used for Welsh Westminster, council and constituency Assembly seat elections
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    Penddu said:

    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    I don't sing the national anthem a lot, but I don't remember anything about "our country" - seemed to be all about the health and even wealth (pouring precious goods on her head) of the Queen. Why would Ein Gwlad sound recognisable?

    There's the American "Our Country, 'Tis of Thee", of course, but that's not an anthem and a long way from Wales.
    I am sure you know this but I am talking about OUR national anthem not YOURS...and in particular the chorus line of Gwlad....Gwlad.... you know the one!
    God Save the Queen is of course the proper anthem of both England and Wales as part of the UK
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,072

    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    Half of column 4 isn't in the Euro.....
    I was thinking of Greece and Italy as the major recalcitrant nations and neither would give up membership beacause of the popularity of the Euro. Nothing would persuade the Italians to go back to the Lira and even Greece with their ruined economy showed no desire to return to the Drachma
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    John_M said:

    Firstly, it's by AEP, the doom-monger's doom-monger.

    Secondly, as Alastair points out, the EU is pretty much immune to sturm und drang within individual countries. Brexit is, as we can all see, extremely challenging in execution. A eurozone member, even one with Italy's economic clout, would find it even more difficult.

    Thirdly, from our purely selfish national interests, we would prefer the EU to prosper; some one has to buy (say) our genuine Cornish Pasties.

    There are some tricky waters for them to navigate; the proposed linking of economic aid to support for EU migrant policies is not sitting well with the Visegrad group, and Austria is likely to align with them on this issue.

    Based on the Commission's own reports, completing EMU and drawing other countries within the Eurozone is also likely to cause problems, even within the core group - Germany is singularly reluctant to shoulder its obligations.
    When I was on holiday in Italy last year there was real evidence of anti EU feeling even to the extent the euro flag on the beaches around Genoa was replaced by the Union Jack. The receptionist at our hotel hated the EU and blamed it for all it's woes.

    I have no doubt that the new Italian government will be a thorn in the side of the EU with it's vow to disregard hundreds of EU regulations and question it's overall contributions.

    Time will tell but they are not going to be bowing at the Court of Monsieur Juncker

    It's the nature of people to blame others for their misfortunes. We tend to overlook the Italians; they have been brung low (from the world's #4 economy as late as 1980 to its present lethargic state) by mostly internal issues.

    I voted Leave, but I'm genuinely puzzled by the kind of sentiments you're expressing (while recollecting that you voted Remain). The EU is what it is. The rules are all written down. Some countries are better at following the rules than others (e.g. Germany is the #1 for ignoring directives), but its a rules-based institution, which is both a strength and a source of frustration.

    Italy had one weapon for restoring its international competitiveness (devaluation). Once that weapon was put beyond use in '99, it's been unable to find another.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,023
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Penddu said:

    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    I don't sing the national anthem a lot, but I don't remember anything about "our country" - seemed to be all about the health and even wealth (pouring precious goods on her head) of the Queen. Why would Ein Gwlad sound recognisable?

    There's the American "Our Country, 'Tis of Thee", of course, but that's not an anthem and a long way from Wales.
    I am sure you know this but I am talking about OUR national anthem not YOURS...and in particular the chorus line of Gwlad....Gwlad.... you know the one!
    You saying the national anthem is not Men of Harlech? Cwm on, you cannot be serious.
    And we were singing hymns and arias,
    'Land of my Fathers', 'Ar hyd y nos'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    Half of column 4 isn't in the Euro.....
    I was thinking of Greece and Italy as the major recalcitrant nations and neither would give up membership beacause of the popularity of the Euro. Nothing would persuade the Italians to go back to the Lira and even Greece with their ruined economy showed no desire to return to the Drachma
    If the next Italian PM is Salvini he opposes the Euro, while Di Maio the other alternative is less than enthusiastic about it
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,009
    Ali will always be AntiFrank to me. :D
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,072
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    Half of column 4 isn't in the Euro.....
    I was thinking of Greece and Italy as the major recalcitrant nations and neither would give up membership beacause of the popularity of the Euro. Nothing would persuade the Italians to go back to the Lira and even Greece with their ruined economy showed no desire to return to the Drachma
    If the next Italian PM is Salvini he opposes the Euro, while Di Maio the other alternative is less than enthusiastic about it
    As Slackbladder said it's like crack. it doesn't matter what Salvini thinks. The people are addicted.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,653
    Interesting.analysis. Britain is no longer in the hostile group. By leaving the EU it becomes irrelevant to it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,725
    I think I would put myself in the 3rd column.

    Still voted leave though.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,949
    Roger said:



    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    Half of column 4 isn't in the Euro.....
    I was thinking of Greece and Italy as the major recalcitrant nations and neither would give up membership beacause of the popularity of the Euro. Nothing would persuade the Italians to go back to the Lira and even Greece with their ruined economy showed no desire to return to the Drachma
    If the next Italian PM is Salvini he opposes the Euro, while Di Maio the other alternative is less than enthusiastic about it
    As Slackbladder said it's like crack. it doesn't matter what Salvini thinks. The people are addicted.
    Until the addiction becomes worse for you than it doesn't.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,449
    edited March 8
    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    If Brexit goes ahead the likelihood is that it'll be the collapse of the pound that'll bring us back and next time they'll demand we rejoin as full members and that'll include the Euro.

    You heard it from Rogerdamus first.

    So, the pound is bound to be safe.
    You heard it from Mortydamus first.

    No way will the SPD vote for coalition with the CDU.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,725
    HYUFD said:

    Penddu said:

    Penddu said:

    For some political news not connected to Brexit, there is a new political party being formed in Wales - called Ein Gwlad (Our Country) and whose primary objective is to achieve Welsh Independence. The party is neither left wing or right wing but 'Welsh Wing' - a syncretic party that will prioritise policies that benefit Wales and moves us towards independence.

    Despite the name it is not a Welsh language party and the name was deliberately chosen to be recognisable to English speakers (think National Anthem) - if someone is not happy voting for a party with a Welsh name it probably wouldnt vote for it whatever the name....

    It's target audience is not just former Plaid voters or supporters of movements like Yes Cymru - but also the many people in Wales who are fed up with traditional politics and want something different.

    Neither is the party a Plaid splinter group - rather we are trying to build a wider national alliance more like SNP

    The party is already organising and in the process of submitting Electoral Commission registration, and expects to be officially launched in a few weeks time. Watch this space

    I don't sing the national anthem a lot, but I don't remember anything about "our country" - seemed to be all about the health and even wealth (pouring precious goods on her head) of the Queen. Why would Ein Gwlad sound recognisable?

    There's the American "Our Country, 'Tis of Thee", of course, but that's not an anthem and a long way from Wales.
    I am sure you know this but I am talking about OUR national anthem not YOURS...and in particular the chorus line of Gwlad....Gwlad.... you know the one!
    God Save the Queen is of course the proper anthem of both England and Wales as part of the UK
    I prefer the 1977 version TBH
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,449
    There's a turn up for the books and no mistake. Who could have predicted?



  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,725

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    If Brexit goes ahead the likelihood is that it'll be the collapse of the pound that'll bring us back and next time they'll demand we rejoin as full members and that'll include the Euro.

    You heard it from Rogerdamus first.

    So, the pound is bound to be safe.
    You heard it from Mortydamus first.

    No way will the SPD vote for coalition with the CDU.
    I hope they don't but if they do will be good news for Die Linke
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,449
    edited March 8

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    If Brexit goes ahead the likelihood is that it'll be the collapse of the pound that'll bring us back and next time they'll demand we rejoin as full members and that'll include the Euro.

    You heard it from Rogerdamus first.

    So, the pound is bound to be safe.
    You heard it from Mortydamus first.

    No way will the SPD vote for coalition with the CDU.
    I hope they don't but if they do will be good news for Die Linke
    They already have.
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 21
    Who on earth doesn't want the EU to implode?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,725
    Racist abuse of black student at Nottingham Trent University.

    Young men. Probably from Mansfield!!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,725

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Good header Alastair. What the British cynics don't get is how popular the Euro is. It's the glue that holds together even the major recalcitrant nations in your column 4.

    If Brexit goes ahead the likelihood is that it'll be the collapse of the pound that'll bring us back and next time they'll demand we rejoin as full members and that'll include the Euro.

    You heard it from Rogerdamus first.

    So, the pound is bound to be safe.
    You heard it from Mortydamus first.

    No way will the SPD vote for coalition with the CDU.
    I hope they don't but if they do will be good news for Die Linke
    They already have.
    Oh silly them then.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    F1: the McLaren hasn't broken down today, as yet.

    And a reminder that, head on, the Williams and Sauber look really similar. I think the Sauber has a pale rear wing, the Williams a dark one. Expecting much confusion over the season given the similarity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    edited March 8

    Our conclusion is that most estimates of the impact of Brexit in the UK, both short-term and long-term, have exaggerated the degree of potential damage to the UK economy. We stress at this point that this is not a politically-driven exercise. Most of the four-person team behind the research for this and our other papers voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would do so again if given the chance. Our purpose is rather to establish a sound basis for the ongoing debate on the likely potential economic impact of Brexit, and more generally to question the quality of economic analysis in dealing with major, macroeconomic policy issue like Brexit.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/08/how-the-economics-profession-got-it-wrong-on-brexit/

    That is an interesting, and in many respects persuasive report.

    Having said that, it is based on (probably valid) critiques of models, and has little to say about particular sectors (finance; automotive; aerospace; pharmaceutical etc) which face significant threats in the absence of a decent deal with the EU.

    (It also has nothing to say about the costs/benefits of being in or out of the single market should a significant trade war break out.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    Awb683 said:

    Who on earth doesn't want the EU to implode?

    This comment was brought to you in association with Vladimir Putin Enterprises.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463

    F1: the McLaren hasn't broken down today, as yet.

    And a reminder that, head on, the Williams and Sauber look really similar. I think the Sauber has a pale rear wing, the Williams a dark one. Expecting much confusion over the season given the similarity.

    One of them added a load of fluorescent green flo vis paint yesterday, which looked rather good against the white livery. Maybe they ought to adopt that as a permanent feature ... ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463

    Oh dear. Another Meeks classic. A potentially informative thread header ruined by his own bigotries and straw men.

    And another classic ad hom...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. B, doubt they'll change now. Got the overalls and marketing campaigns all done.

    Intrigued to see how Sauber do. Could well exceed (low) expectations.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,087
    Awb683 said:

    Who on earth doesn't want the EU to implode?

    Seem to remember that the US had a problem, around the 1860's when some of the states didn't like what was happening in Washington DC. There seems to be some here who would quite like a similar outcome in Europe. They forget that many countries have already experienced war, invasion, occupation and have decided that they like the thought of their children and grandchildren living in peace.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,087
    Nigelb said:

    Our conclusion is that most estimates of the impact of Brexit in the UK, both short-term and long-term, have exaggerated the degree of potential damage to the UK economy. We stress at this point that this is not a politically-driven exercise. Most of the four-person team behind the research for this and our other papers voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would do so again if given the chance. Our purpose is rather to establish a sound basis for the ongoing debate on the likely potential economic impact of Brexit, and more generally to question the quality of economic analysis in dealing with major, macroeconomic policy issue like Brexit.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/08/how-the-economics-profession-got-it-wrong-on-brexit/

    That is an interesting, and in many respects persuasive report.

    Having said that, it is based on (probably valid) critiques of models, and has little to say about particular sectors (finance; automotive; aerospace; pharmaceutical etc) which face significant threats in the absence of a decent deal with the EU.

    (It also has nothing to say about the costs/benefits of being in or out of the single market should a significant trade war break out.)
    We haven't left yet
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. Eye, au contraire. Some of us fear that the longer it takes the EU to fall the worse the consequences. The more integration, the more the pain of disentangling the dead octopus' tentacles.

    Mind you, I do get a whiff of nostalgia from the suggestion that those not in favour of the EU are therefore in favour of (or at least not very concerned by) the prospect of a massive war.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    Nigelb said:

    Our conclusion is that most estimates of the impact of Brexit in the UK, both short-term and long-term, have exaggerated the degree of potential damage to the UK economy. We stress at this point that this is not a politically-driven exercise. Most of the four-person team behind the research for this and our other papers voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would do so again if given the chance. Our purpose is rather to establish a sound basis for the ongoing debate on the likely potential economic impact of Brexit, and more generally to question the quality of economic analysis in dealing with major, macroeconomic policy issue like Brexit.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/08/how-the-economics-profession-got-it-wrong-on-brexit/

    That is an interesting, and in many respects persuasive report.

    Having said that, it is based on (probably valid) critiques of models, and has little to say about particular sectors (finance; automotive; aerospace; pharmaceutical etc) which face significant threats in the absence of a decent deal with the EU.

    (It also has nothing to say about the costs/benefits of being in or out of the single market should a significant trade war break out.)
    Yes - but a lot of the EU propaganda argument was based on an oft repeated lie misapprehension:

    The Brexit debate has been distorted by several myths. One of the most persistent and widely repeated is that the economic performance of the UK improved after joining the EEC in 1973. This claim was made by the OECD and was regularly stated in the media during the Brexit referendum campaign.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880

    Oh dear. Another Meeks classic. A potentially informative thread header ruined by his own bigotries and straw men.

    I thought it was amusing and well written. Of course it exaggerates greatly the position of Leavers but there is undoubtedly a thread of Leavers who have been gleefully predicting the inevitable collapse of the Euro since its inception. The passing of every "inevitable" point simply leads them onto the next one. AEP is a good example of this mindset. They simply cannot come to terms with the political commitment that is widely spread across Europe.

    Personally, I wish the EU well. Their somewhat belated return to growth has undoubtedly helped us to reduce our trade gap, increase production and grow faster than forecast. Long may that continue.

    I think Alastair is wrong to describe the UK as hostile. I really don't believe it is. If the peoples of Europe really think that a European State which controls their budgets, their taxes and their priorities along with their currency and interest rates is better than the alternatives good luck to them. I just don't believe that there will ever be a majority in the UK for that option. @WilliamGlenn and a few others are openly and candidly for it. But most remainers continue to delude themselves that all of the price that had to be paid was in leaving when in fact the price of staying was unacceptable.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,339
    An excellent piece. I was disappointed with Nigel Farage. Before Brexit his line was very much 'Although EU membership isn't for us, we fully respect the decisions of the other members and wish them well with their project.' Yet after Brexit he was stomping around the continent trying to wreck everything in sight and throwing his weight behind dubious far-Right elements. It made me question the man's true motivations all along. Was Brexit merely to provide technocratic benefits for the UK, or was it only ever intended as a catalyst for chaos and destruction on a far vaster scale?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    Every cloud.....
    BREXIT has undermined support for the SNP rather than boosting backing for independence and made life harder for Nicola Sturgeon, the country’s leading pollster has said.

    Professor Sir John Curtice said the SNP’s opposition to Brexit had alienated many Leave voters who had previously supported the party, and cost it dearly in votes.

    Around a third of people who voted SNP in the 2016 Holyrood election went on to vote for Brexit a few weeks later, and many of those never returned to the SNP


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16072971.Curtice__Brexit_has_made_life_tougher_for_Sturgeon_and_SNP/?ref=twtrec
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,553
    edited March 8

    Mr. Eye, au contraire. Some of us fear that the longer it takes the EU to fall the worse the consequences. The more integration, the more the pain of disentangling the dead octopus' tentacles.

    (Snip)

    You almost seem to *want* it to fail.

    The EU might fail - certainly, they need to replace their tin ear. But I don't think it's inevitable, or desirable from a world or even a UK point of view.

    Once we've left, we should wish bid them farewell and good luck, just as I hope they'd do to us. We need to be friendly neighbours.

    But too many leavers seem to take Farage's perspective and want the EU destroyed. This is bad, from our and their perspectives.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880

    An excellent piece. I was disappointed with Nigel Farage. Before Brexit his line was very much 'Although EU membership isn't for us, we fully respect the decisions of the other members and wish them well with their project.' Yet after Brexit he was stomping around the continent trying to wreck everything in sight and throwing his weight behind dubious far-Right elements. It made me question the man's true motivations all along. Was Brexit merely to provide technocratic benefits for the UK, or was it only ever intended as a catalyst for chaos and destruction on a far vaster scale?

    Or is he just an egocentric buffoon who likes to be on the Telly?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. Jessop, if EU collapse is taken as inevitable, then wanting that to happen sooner (in order to diminish the impact so it's just civil disorder rather than a continent-wide war) does make sense.

    If you believe the EU can last either indefinitely or, more credibly, for a very prolonged period (centuries) then that isn't the case. But, for reasons I outlined above (maybe last thread?) I do think the EU will crumble.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,817
    Nigelb said:

    Oh dear. Another Meeks classic. A potentially informative thread header ruined by his own bigotries and straw men.

    And another classic ad hom...
    Since that forms the basis of Mr Meeks whole thesis I am simply responding in kind.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880

    Every cloud.....
    BREXIT has undermined support for the SNP rather than boosting backing for independence and made life harder for Nicola Sturgeon, the country’s leading pollster has said.

    Professor Sir John Curtice said the SNP’s opposition to Brexit had alienated many Leave voters who had previously supported the party, and cost it dearly in votes.

    Around a third of people who voted SNP in the 2016 Holyrood election went on to vote for Brexit a few weeks later, and many of those never returned to the SNP


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16072971.Curtice__Brexit_has_made_life_tougher_for_Sturgeon_and_SNP/?ref=twtrec

    Some of us of course predicted this when being assured that a vote for leave was a vote to break up the United Kingdom.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    OchEye said:

    Nigelb said:

    Our conclusion is that most estimates of the impact of Brexit in the UK, both short-term and long-term, have exaggerated the degree of potential damage to the UK economy. We stress at this point that this is not a politically-driven exercise. Most of the four-person team behind the research for this and our other papers voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would do so again if given the chance. Our purpose is rather to establish a sound basis for the ongoing debate on the likely potential economic impact of Brexit, and more generally to question the quality of economic analysis in dealing with major, macroeconomic policy issue like Brexit.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/08/how-the-economics-profession-got-it-wrong-on-brexit/

    That is an interesting, and in many respects persuasive report.

    Having said that, it is based on (probably valid) critiques of models, and has little to say about particular sectors (finance; automotive; aerospace; pharmaceutical etc) which face significant threats in the absence of a decent deal with the EU.

    (It also has nothing to say about the costs/benefits of being in or out of the single market should a significant trade war break out.)
    We haven't left yet
    Indeed - but the report is an analysis of the various best and worst case predictions of what might happen when we do.
    I am not as sanguine as the authors appear to be about the risks of leaving, but the critiques they present are sensible ones.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,009

    An excellent piece. I was disappointed with Nigel Farage. Before Brexit his line was very much 'Although EU membership isn't for us, we fully respect the decisions of the other members and wish them well with their project.' Yet after Brexit he was stomping around the continent trying to wreck everything in sight and throwing his weight behind dubious far-Right elements. It made me question the man's true motivations all along. Was Brexit merely to provide technocratic benefits for the UK, or was it only ever intended as a catalyst for chaos and destruction on a far vaster scale?

    I've never been much of a fan of Farage but to be fair he has never disguised the fact he'd like to see the EU and Euro implode and let all the "States" of the EU go back to being independent trading nations again like there were in the days of the Common Market.
  • MetatronMetatron Posts: 124
    Spurs played very well but were unlucky.At least Dier Dele Alli and Kane are holding down first team places.England will do well to play well.Many of Englands current top players are not in their clubs first teams.The best English tournament of the last 16 years was Ashley Cole and he has retired.
    Scott_P said:

    The EU = Spurs

    Superficially attractive on the outside but in reality they have people who annoy good people.

    Dele Alli is just like Jean-Claude Juncker.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    GIN1138 said:

    An excellent piece. I was disappointed with Nigel Farage. Before Brexit his line was very much 'Although EU membership isn't for us, we fully respect the decisions of the other members and wish them well with their project.' Yet after Brexit he was stomping around the continent trying to wreck everything in sight and throwing his weight behind dubious far-Right elements. It made me question the man's true motivations all along. Was Brexit merely to provide technocratic benefits for the UK, or was it only ever intended as a catalyst for chaos and destruction on a far vaster scale?

    I've never been much of a fan of Farage but to be fair he has never disguised the fact he'd like to see the EU and Euro implode and let all the "States" of the EU go back to being independent trading nations again like there were in the days of the Common Market.
    The days of the Common Market when we had a European Commission, Parliament, ECJ and common commercial policy?

    I think your comment just highlights how many practical barriers there are to a true implosion of the EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,867
    DavidL said:

    Some of us of course predicted this when being assured that a vote for leave was a vote to break up the United Kingdom.

    *cough*Northern Ireland*cough*
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    Nigelb said:

    Our conclusion is that most estimates of the impact of Brexit in the UK, both short-term and long-term, have exaggerated the degree of potential damage to the UK economy. We stress at this point that this is not a politically-driven exercise. Most of the four-person team behind the research for this and our other papers voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would do so again if given the chance. Our purpose is rather to establish a sound basis for the ongoing debate on the likely potential economic impact of Brexit, and more generally to question the quality of economic analysis in dealing with major, macroeconomic policy issue like Brexit.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/08/how-the-economics-profession-got-it-wrong-on-brexit/

    That is an interesting, and in many respects persuasive report.

    Having said that, it is based on (probably valid) critiques of models, and has little to say about particular sectors (finance; automotive; aerospace; pharmaceutical etc) which face significant threats in the absence of a decent deal with the EU.

    (It also has nothing to say about the costs/benefits of being in or out of the single market should a significant trade war break out.)
    Yes - but a lot of the EU propaganda argument was based on an oft repeated lie misapprehension:

    The Brexit debate has been distorted by several myths. One of the most persistent and widely repeated is that the economic performance of the UK improved after joining the EEC in 1973. This claim was made by the OECD and was regularly stated in the media during the Brexit referendum campaign.
    I need to read it in more detail; my eyebrows were raised by the assertion that long run GVA per capita is essentially unchanged under any Brexit deal, and that London's GVA/capita would actually rise, again, irrespective of the deal.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,553

    Mr. Jessop, if EU collapse is taken as inevitable, then wanting that to happen sooner (in order to diminish the impact so it's just civil disorder rather than a continent-wide war) does make sense.

    If you believe the EU can last either indefinitely or, more credibly, for a very prolonged period (centuries) then that isn't the case. But, for reasons I outlined above (maybe last thread?) I do think the EU will crumble.

    But that's the point: you seem to take it as inevitable. That's a rather negative view to take (and unrealistic in the short-term IMO), and a terrible one on which to base our future actions. What's more, it's none of our business once we leave, in the same way (say) the future of the union won't be any of theirs.

    I think you're being a bit of a silly sausage with your timescales. It's perfectly possible the United Kingdom won't exist for a prolonged period, or even centuries. Does that mean we should tear it down now?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,754
    DavidL said:

    Oh dear. Another Meeks classic. A potentially informative thread header ruined by his own bigotries and straw men.

    But most remainers continue to delude themselves that all of the price that had to be paid was in leaving when in fact the price of staying was unacceptable.
    what was the price of staying?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880
    Nigelb said:

    Our conclusion is that most estimates of the impact of Brexit in the UK, both short-term and long-term, have exaggerated the degree of potential damage to the UK economy. We stress at this point that this is not a politically-driven exercise. Most of the four-person team behind the research for this and our other papers voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would do so again if given the chance. Our purpose is rather to establish a sound basis for the ongoing debate on the likely potential economic impact of Brexit, and more generally to question the quality of economic analysis in dealing with major, macroeconomic policy issue like Brexit.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/08/how-the-economics-profession-got-it-wrong-on-brexit/

    That is an interesting, and in many respects persuasive report.

    Having said that, it is based on (probably valid) critiques of models, and has little to say about particular sectors (finance; automotive; aerospace; pharmaceutical etc) which face significant threats in the absence of a decent deal with the EU.

    (It also has nothing to say about the costs/benefits of being in or out of the single market should a significant trade war break out.)
    May I say that many of the arguments seem remarkably familiar!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,518
    GIN1138 said:



    I've never been much of a fan of Farage but to be fair he has never disguised the fact he'd like to see the EU and Euro implode and let all the "States" of the EU go back to being independent trading nations again like there were in the days of the Common Market.



    The nature of contemporary and future technology and industry makes that impossible. See JC's example of the Mini going back and forward to France to have the cam angle sensor (or whatever the fuck it was) fitted. Enterprises, industry and technology is now transnational and therefore so must be the economic and political framework in which they operate.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,009
    edited March 8



    I think your comment just highlights how many practical barriers there are to a true implosion of the EU.

    Agreed. It's very unlikely there will be an implosion of the EU anytime soon... If for no other reason than the bureaucracy have proven themselves adept at keeping the show on the road no matter how bad things get.

    For that reason I suspect the only way this thing "implodes" will be through war and bloodshed rather than a peaceful, democratic end like the British performed through our referendum.

    We should hope for everyone's sake's that doesn't happen.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    Some of us of course predicted this when being assured that a vote for leave was a vote to break up the United Kingdom.

    *cough*Northern Ireland*cough*
    You think NI is going to be leaving the UK? When and do you want a bet on it?

    But in any event my prediction was that Brexit would make life more difficult for the SNP for exactly the reasons that Curtice has identified.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 763
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    Some of us of course predicted this when being assured that a vote for leave was a vote to break up the United Kingdom.

    *cough*Northern Ireland*cough*
    Is there any real sign of any move towards a united Ireland? There is still a huge majority for remaining in the UK and that is before you factor in the ability of the Republic to maintain the £9bn a year subsidy or how people will react at having to pay £70 a night to stay in hospital or £50 to see a GP or £100 to go to casualty as applies in the Republic to households earning more than a measly 15000 euro a year who don't qualify for a medical card. And let's not get into their brutal inheritance and gift tax system!

    People in the North keep Irish and thus EU citizenship post Brexit - and the U.K. Subsidy and NHS. A united Ireland is popular in theory - but then you look at what both sides of the border have to lose.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,449
    DavidL said:

    Every cloud.....
    BREXIT has undermined support for the SNP rather than boosting backing for independence and made life harder for Nicola Sturgeon, the country’s leading pollster has said.

    Professor Sir John Curtice said the SNP’s opposition to Brexit had alienated many Leave voters who had previously supported the party, and cost it dearly in votes.

    Around a third of people who voted SNP in the 2016 Holyrood election went on to vote for Brexit a few weeks later, and many of those never returned to the SNP


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16072971.Curtice__Brexit_has_made_life_tougher_for_Sturgeon_and_SNP/?ref=twtrec

    Some of us of course predicted this when being assured that a vote for leave was a vote to break up the United Kingdom.
    One of those assurers being 'our' current prime minister.





  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880

    DavidL said:

    Every cloud.....
    BREXIT has undermined support for the SNP rather than boosting backing for independence and made life harder for Nicola Sturgeon, the country’s leading pollster has said.

    Professor Sir John Curtice said the SNP’s opposition to Brexit had alienated many Leave voters who had previously supported the party, and cost it dearly in votes.

    Around a third of people who voted SNP in the 2016 Holyrood election went on to vote for Brexit a few weeks later, and many of those never returned to the SNP


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16072971.Curtice__Brexit_has_made_life_tougher_for_Sturgeon_and_SNP/?ref=twtrec

    Some of us of course predicted this when being assured that a vote for leave was a vote to break up the United Kingdom.
    One of those assurers being 'our' current prime minister.





    Theresa May wrong about something shock.

    But with the BBC reporting that there are so many things the government should be doing to boost our growth regardless of Brexit, with academics pointing out that the economic effects of Brexit are vastly overstated and with the SNP falling back as predicted I am in danger of bursting with smugness this morning and am off to do some real work!
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