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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Until leave’s referendum expenses issues are sorted opponents

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Until leave’s referendum expenses issues are sorted opponents will be able to cast doubt over Brexit’s legitimacy

The overnight news that the government have refused the Electoral Commission’s desire for the sources of the DUP’s pre 2017 donations to be revealed will only add to speculation that something is amiss. What was the source of the £425k that TMay’s “supply & confidence” partners were given ahead of the referendum?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    Absolutely.

    What have they got to hide?

    Is it Putin’s money?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    Time for an appeal to the CJEU.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    Parliament should take back control and overturn this pernicious decision by Mrs May.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    Don’t feed the trolls.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,738
    As Ian Paisley Jr once said (Courtesy of Hansard) No Surrender
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,097
    Remainer wishful thinking. Yawn.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,738
    For the sake of balance, the first leaflet I remember having was definitely a Gov't one asking me to back... remain.

    Since I'm often of a contrarian mindset it almost pushed me to leave...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: heard something odd today, that this second test is the last ahead of the season. Yet the BBC schedule has a third: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/42263885

    Anyway, we'll see.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,344
    I doubt if this will change many minds in itself, though if substantial offences were committed it would of course tarnish everyone involved. I think we Remainers need to avoid a sort of Dolchstoss Legende building up in which we say the result was essentially illegitimate - we need to work on the basis that Leave won that one and work to limit the damage and maximise the chance of second thoughts or a later return. (The suggestion that this is in some way undemocratic is also piffle, of course.)

    O/T: My local sandwich cafe were ruminating on the Russian attack. The alleged umbrella murderer used to be a customer of theirs - "he always seemed very pleasant". They are eyeing their other customers a bit nervously.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    Oh dear. Still, where there's life there's hope.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    Do we think Le Pen was behind the donation?

    It must be a truly evil Brexiteer who donated it.

    Must be the reason why Mrs May hates democracy with her action here.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: heard something odd today, that this second test is the last ahead of the season. Yet the BBC schedule has a third: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/42263885

    Anyway, we'll see.

    The third test is in July and August. There are only the two pre-season tests, a week from now we’ll be on the eve of the Aussie GP practice sessions.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,036
    edited March 8
    OK, lets assume for the moment that the EC finds that the Leave campaoign drove a coach and horses through the rules. I’m not saying it did, but if
    What happens?
    Is the result overturned? The referendum run again? Johnson, Gove and Farage up befote the beak?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000

    OK, lets assume for the moment that the EC finds that the Leave campaoign drove a coach and horses through the rules. I’m not saying it did, but if
    What happens?
    Is the result overturned? The referendum run again? Johnson, Gove and Farage up befote the beak?

    They’ll be taken to Traitors’ Gate if there’s any justice.

    Just imagine if Robert Mueller indicts Nigel Farage.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,156

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-donations/details-of-major-campaign-spending-during-eu-referendum-published-by-electoral-commission

    In total, Remain outspent Leave by £5m, and the government also distributed its own leaflet in favour of Remain, so they can't really claim that money bought the outcome for Leave.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. Sandpit, ah, cheers. I misread it (identical circuit but in May not March). On the plus side, I'll write the final pre-season ramble earlier than anticipated.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,841
    edited March 8
    Pulpstar said:

    For the sake of balance, the first leaflet I remember having was definitely a Gov't one asking me to back... remain.

    Since I'm often of a contrarian mindset it almost pushed me to leave...

    I think that government booklet early on in the campaign really rubbed people up the wrong way.

    I still think a more emotionally-intelligent Remain campaign could've won the referendum, even with all other things being equal. But the government took the wrong lessons from the Scottish referendum and the 2015 election - ignoring that, in the former case, "Project Fear" shrank away a once huge lead into almost nothing, and in the latter case, that 37% was a rather unimpressive General Election score historically, and well short of what was needed to win a referendum...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,076
    If Remain had more money to spend they could have sent every voter a letter containing Sir Stuart Rose's warning that voting Leave would result in wages rising. That might have changed the result.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    Pulpstar said:

    For the sake of balance, the first leaflet I remember having was definitely a Gov't one asking me to back... remain.

    Since I'm often of a contrarian mindset it almost pushed me to leave...

    Yes, in the minds of most Leavers that was the most egregious example of electioneering, and was publically funded.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,036
    Sean_F said:


    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-donations/details-of-major-campaign-spending-during-eu-referendum-published-by-electoral-commission

    In total, Remain outspent Leave by £5m, and the government also distributed its own leaflet in favour of Remain, so they can't really claim that money bought the outcome for Leave.

    It isn’t a question of outspending; it’s whether or not the rules were breached.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,156

    If Remain had more money to spend they could have sent every voter a letter containing Sir Stuart Rose's warning that voting Leave would result in wages rising. That might have changed the result.

    Along with a photo of Bob Geldof giving the V sign to fishermen, and Eddie Izzard in his beret.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694

    If Remain had more money to spend they could have sent every voter a letter containing Sir Stuart Rose's warning that voting Leave would result in wages rising. That might have changed the result.

    If Leave had more money to spend they could have sent every voter a letter containing Sir Stuart Rose's warning that voting Leave would result in wages rising. That might have changed the result.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,156

    Sean_F said:


    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-donations/details-of-major-campaign-spending-during-eu-referendum-published-by-electoral-commission

    In total, Remain outspent Leave by £5m, and the government also distributed its own leaflet in favour of Remain, so they can't really claim that money bought the outcome for Leave.

    It isn’t a question of outspending; it’s whether or not the rules were breached.
    In the case of the DUP donation, they were not. It's just that Northern Ireland (wrongly in my view) was not subject to the same rules as the rest of the UK.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 883
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    For the sake of balance, the first leaflet I remember having was definitely a Gov't one asking me to back... remain.

    Since I'm often of a contrarian mindset it almost pushed me to leave...

    I think that government booklet early on in the campaign really rubbed people up the wrong way.

    I still think a more emotionally-intelligent Remain campaign could've won the referendum, even with all other things being equal. But the government took the wrong lessons from the Scottish referendum and the 2015 election - ignoring that, in the former case, "Project Fear" shrank away a once huge lead into almost nothing, and in the latter case, that 37% was a rather unimpressive General Election score historically, and well short of what was needed to win a referendum...
    Absolutely. There is no way that Remain should have lost - they screwed it up hugely.

    What happens if an MP / council candidate has overspent? If they declare it, is the election null and void or rerun? I'm not sure I have ever seen a test case of this. The Craig Mackinlay issues about where expenditure is allocated is a different matter, I'm talking about simple over-spending (as it may prove a pointer to consequences here.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    F1: Wolff reckons Red Bull have made a strategic error by not using the fuel/oil with which the Renault engine was developed.

    Interesting little snippet of information.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,427
    "As we get closer to March 296th next year those opposed to Brexit are going to be on the lookout for anything that will make it difficult."

    Rather reminiscent of a skit from Parks and Recreation, I think there many people that would be very happy if we were all required to wait until such a day.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    Sean_F said:


    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-donations/details-of-major-campaign-spending-during-eu-referendum-published-by-electoral-commission

    In total, Remain outspent Leave by £5m, and the government also distributed its own leaflet in favour of Remain, so they can't really claim that money bought the outcome for Leave.

    You and your facts!

    You're dealing with a religion and people who've got their own way for decades!

    Of course they're upset, as one by one, the straws fall away.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,449
    edited March 8
    I missed the ins and outs of the vote on revealing the source of the DUP's Brexit funding. What well-reasoned, honorable rationale* did the government use to justify not revealing it?


    *duplicitous, greasy bullshit
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,742
    March 296th
    We're never going to Leave ;-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. Song, yes, we are. The moment after the eleventy-first of Tricember, we're out.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338

    I doubt if this will change many minds in itself, though if substantial offences were committed it would of course tarnish everyone involved. I think we Remainers need to avoid a sort of Dolchstoss Legende building up in which we say the result was essentially illegitimate - we need to work on the basis that Leave won that one and work to limit the damage and maximise the chance of second thoughts or a later return. (The suggestion that this is in some way undemocratic is also piffle, of course.)

    Wise words. But we have a process for deciding to have referendums.

    A party puts it in their manifesto, wins a GE, then holds the referendum.

    For some inexplicable reason some appear to have forgotten this.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,089

    I doubt if this will change many minds in itself, though if substantial offences were committed it would of course tarnish everyone involved. I think we Remainers need to avoid a sort of Dolchstoss Legende building up in which we say the result was essentially illegitimate - we need to work on the basis that Leave won that one and work to limit the damage and maximise the chance of second thoughts or a later return. (The suggestion that this is in some way undemocratic is also piffle, of course.)

    O/T: My local sandwich cafe were ruminating on the Russian attack. The alleged umbrella murderer used to be a customer of theirs - "he always seemed very pleasant". They are eyeing their other customers a bit nervously.

    Both sides were moral equals, in my view.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    nielh said:

    I doubt if this will change many minds in itself, though if substantial offences were committed it would of course tarnish everyone involved. I think we Remainers need to avoid a sort of Dolchstoss Legende building up in which we say the result was essentially illegitimate - we need to work on the basis that Leave won that one and work to limit the damage and maximise the chance of second thoughts or a later return. (The suggestion that this is in some way undemocratic is also piffle, of course.)

    O/T: My local sandwich cafe were ruminating on the Russian attack. The alleged umbrella murderer used to be a customer of theirs - "he always seemed very pleasant". They are eyeing their other customers a bit nervously.

    Both sides were moral equals, in my view.
    Or as Doctor Johnson observed, 'there is little point to settling the precedence between a louse and a flea'.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,449
    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338

    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
    That famous Nat sense of humour on display again.....

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16072971.Curtice__Brexit_has_made_life_tougher_for_Sturgeon_and_SNP/?ref=twtrec
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485

    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
    Carlotta is a parody? That explains why she thought Bertie Ahern was the Irish PM at the time of Brexit before correcting it to “Edna” Kenny.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,742
    Meanwhile in a current real election:
    Republicans trash their candidate in Pa. special election
    The GOP is bracing for an embarrassing defeat next week in a district Donald Trump won by 20 points.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/republicans-pennsylvania-special-election-445221
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,036
    calum said:
    N Irish politics are somewhere where carefull trreading is essential, and where some very odd 'co-incidences' occur.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,219
    edited March 8
    Is that you posting the spoof account? Again?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,449

    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
    Carlotta is a parody? That explains why she thought Bertie Ahern was the Irish PM at the time of Brexit before correcting it to “Edna” Kenny.
    Some would say that a Maybot loyalist who generously dispenses their Tory and Union and Brexit supporting wisdom while living abroad has to be a satirical construct, I couldn't possible comment.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. Divvie, many of us who are not pro-independence defended the right of Sven Dicksson [whom I hope returns someday] to prognosticate on such matters despite not living there...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    edited March 8
    More 'Union Jackery'.....

    The National will continue to expose Union Jackery....

    http://thenational.scot/news/16071619.___Union_Jackery____accusations_hit_renowned_Scottish_whisky_firm/
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,518
    Alistair said:
    They are, but Republican Majority is available for a grand at 1.55 (as ever, DYOR). The Democrats could well take the House and go backwards in the Senate.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,449
    edited March 8

    Mr. Divvie, many of us who are not pro-independence defended the right of Sven Dicksson [whom I hope returns someday] to prognosticate on such matters despite not living there...

    Since you were and are happy to prognosticate on matters Scottish, you would have to be a massive hypocrite not to defend that right.

    In any case, the 'right' to comment on stuff doesn't save one from having the piss ripped.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,754

    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
    Carlotta is a parody? That explains why she thought Bertie Ahern was the Irish PM at the time of Brexit before correcting it to “Edna” Kenny.
    Some would say that a Maybot loyalist who generously dispenses their Tory and Union and Brexit supporting wisdom while living abroad has to be a satirical construct, I couldn't possible comment.
    Carlotta is an exemplar of how to be a May-supporting Brexitomane with some degree of elegance and wit.

    The ones I detest are those who sit there in their Union Jack boxer shorts, Land of Hope and Glory playing in the background, while shouting at the TV because all the programmes on it are in foreign.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,427

    Alistair said:
    They are, but Republican Majority is available for a grand at 1.55 (as ever, DYOR). The Democrats could well take the House and go backwards in the Senate.
    Very difficult to poll a known candidate against "a" GOP. People often match the GOP candidate to their own desires.

    There is quite an active selection battle in Arizona for example between factions within the Republicans.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,449
    TOPPING said:

    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
    Carlotta is a parody? That explains why she thought Bertie Ahern was the Irish PM at the time of Brexit before correcting it to “Edna” Kenny.
    Some would say that a Maybot loyalist who generously dispenses their Tory and Union and Brexit supporting wisdom while living abroad has to be a satirical construct, I couldn't possible comment.
    Carlotta is an exemplar of how to be a May-supporting Brexitomane with some degree of elegance and wit.

    The ones I detest are those who sit there in their Union Jack boxer shorts, Land of Hope and Glory playing in the background, while shouting at the TV because all the programmes on it are in foreign.
    A tad harsh on HUYFD..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. Divvie, hypocrisy doesn't stop many people doing many things ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,648
    Time to rebrand this site - it's no longer about betting.

    More a morgue for the European dream.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,648
    TOPPING said:

    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
    Carlotta is a parody? That explains why she thought Bertie Ahern was the Irish PM at the time of Brexit before correcting it to “Edna” Kenny.
    Some would say that a Maybot loyalist who generously dispenses their Tory and Union and Brexit supporting wisdom while living abroad has to be a satirical construct, I couldn't possible comment.
    The ones I detest are those who sit there in their Union Jack boxer shorts, Land of Hope and Glory playing in the background, while shouting at the TV because all the programmes on it are in foreign.
    Name names .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880
    I'm feeling a bit tired so I want to make sure I have got this right. Is it being suggested that someone unknown funnelled £425K to the DUP so that they could campaign against Brexit and the person who did this happened to be a Conservative?

    Because, and correct me if I have this wrong, the Conservatives, led by DC and GO, were actually for remain and quite happy to use large quantities of taxpayers money to fund the campaign, as well as misusing the Civil Service, particularly the Treasury, to produce "information" during the campaign. It therefore seems somewhat unlikely that the same party was trying to give the DUP a bung to campaign against its declared policy.

    I am really not sure what this has to do with the Tories as a party or the government or why or how they were involved either at the time or now.

    Looking at the European referendum Act 2015 the question of permitted expenses is dealt with in Schedule 1, paragraph 25, by reference to the Political Parties, Elections and referendums Act 2000, schedule 14. These provisions entitle a permitted participant to spend up to £5m. It is not immediately obvious how that accords with both sides spending approximately £16m on the campaign but the more important point for present purposes is that, unlike the case of a Westminster election, there is no provision for the result being invalidated by overspending.

    It is of course possible that individuals who were responsible for monitoring spending on each side might have committed offences if they have made false declarations (although if the time limits are the same as for Westminster elections they better get a shift on) but the result stands (unless I have missed something, being very tired and all).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    I haven't been following this - but if a Tory leader had been a member of such a group, what would Labour have said?

    https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/my-jeremy-corbyn-dilemma-1.460305

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/93427/labour-group-calls-jeremy-corbyn

    By their friends yea shall know them.....
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,058

    Sean_F said:


    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-donations/details-of-major-campaign-spending-during-eu-referendum-published-by-electoral-commission

    In total, Remain outspent Leave by £5m, and the government also distributed its own leaflet in favour of Remain, so they can't really claim that money bought the outcome for Leave.

    You and your facts!

    You're dealing with a religion and people who've got their own way for decades!

    Of course they're upset, as one by one, the straws fall away.....
    Very well put.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,518

    Alistair said:
    They are, but Republican Majority is available for a grand at 1.55 (as ever, DYOR). The Democrats could well take the House and go backwards in the Senate.
    Very difficult to poll a known candidate against "a" GOP. People often match the GOP candidate to their own desires.

    There is quite an active selection battle in Arizona for example between factions within the Republicans.
    Yes, a named candidate will have negatives. But the Senate map is so bad for Democrats, partly because it's those elected on Obama's 2012 coat-tails and partly because Trump is polarising the electorate, even while he is in aggregate unpopular.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Miss Vance, I'm sure it's a kind and gentle group.

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), won't be long until the F1 season starts. And then, tips galore [although I suspect the most profitable one might be not to follow the rest :p ].
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited March 8
    TOPPING said:

    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
    Carlotta is a parody? That explains why she thought Bertie Ahern was the Irish PM at the time of Brexit before correcting it to “Edna” Kenny.
    Some would say that a Maybot loyalist who generously dispenses their Tory and Union and Brexit supporting wisdom while living abroad has to be a satirical construct, I couldn't possible comment.
    Carlotta is an exemplar of how to be a May-supporting Brexitomane with some degree of elegance and wit.

    The ones I detest are those who sit there in their Union Jack boxer shorts, Land of Hope and Glory playing in the background, while shouting at the TV because all the programmes on it are in foreign.
    *guilty start*

    *turns TV off*
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,427

    Alistair said:
    They are, but Republican Majority is available for a grand at 1.55 (as ever, DYOR). The Democrats could well take the House and go backwards in the Senate.
    Very difficult to poll a known candidate against "a" GOP. People often match the GOP candidate to their own desires.

    There is quite an active selection battle in Arizona for example between factions within the Republicans.
    Yes, a named candidate will have negatives. But the Senate map is so bad for Democrats, partly because it's those elected on Obama's 2012 coat-tails and partly because Trump is polarising the electorate, even while he is in aggregate unpopular.
    I do have several hundred pounds against the Betfair Dems taking control...! Happy to discuss any of the Senate races at some considerable length.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,518

    Alistair said:
    They are, but Republican Majority is available for a grand at 1.55 (as ever, DYOR). The Democrats could well take the House and go backwards in the Senate.
    Very difficult to poll a known candidate against "a" GOP. People often match the GOP candidate to their own desires.

    There is quite an active selection battle in Arizona for example between factions within the Republicans.
    Yes, a named candidate will have negatives. But the Senate map is so bad for Democrats, partly because it's those elected on Obama's 2012 coat-tails and partly because Trump is polarising the electorate, even while he is in aggregate unpopular.
    I do have several hundred pounds against the Betfair Dems taking control...! Happy to discuss any of the Senate races at some considerable length.
    That looks pretty safe - the Betfair rules are even tougher given they won't count King & Sanders as Democrats. I think it would need Trump's ratings to fall off a cliff.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
    Carlotta is a parody? That explains why she thought Bertie Ahern was the Irish PM at the time of Brexit before correcting it to “Edna” Kenny.
    Some would say that a Maybot loyalist who generously dispenses their Tory and Union and Brexit supporting wisdom while living abroad has to be a satirical construct, I couldn't possible comment.
    Carlotta is an exemplar of how to be a May-supporting Brexitomane with some degree of elegance and wit.

    The ones I detest are those who sit there in their Union Jack boxer shorts, Land of Hope and Glory playing in the background, while shouting at the TV because all the programmes on it are in foreign.
    *guilty start*

    *turns TV off*
    So long as you keep the boxers on...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 14,817
    nielh said:

    I doubt if this will change many minds in itself, though if substantial offences were committed it would of course tarnish everyone involved. I think we Remainers need to avoid a sort of Dolchstoss Legende building up in which we say the result was essentially illegitimate - we need to work on the basis that Leave won that one and work to limit the damage and maximise the chance of second thoughts or a later return. (The suggestion that this is in some way undemocratic is also piffle, of course.)

    O/T: My local sandwich cafe were ruminating on the Russian attack. The alleged umbrella murderer used to be a customer of theirs - "he always seemed very pleasant". They are eyeing their other customers a bit nervously.

    Both sides were moral equals, in my view.
    I would have thought immoral equals would have been more accurate.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,041
    DavidL said:

    I'm feeling a bit tired so I want to make sure I have got this right. Is it being suggested that someone unknown funnelled £425K to the DUP so that they could campaign against Brexit and the person who did this happened to be a Conservative?

    Because, and correct me if I have this wrong, the Conservatives, led by DC and GO, were actually for remain and quite happy to use large quantities of taxpayers money to fund the campaign, as well as misusing the Civil Service, particularly the Treasury, to produce "information" during the campaign. It therefore seems somewhat unlikely that the same party was trying to give the DUP a bung to campaign against its declared policy.

    I am really not sure what this has to do with the Tories as a party or the government or why or how they were involved either at the time or now.

    Looking at the European referendum Act 2015 the question of permitted expenses is dealt with in Schedule 1, paragraph 25, by reference to the Political Parties, Elections and referendums Act 2000, schedule 14. These provisions entitle a permitted participant to spend up to £5m. It is not immediately obvious how that accords with both sides spending approximately £16m on the campaign but the more important point for present purposes is that, unlike the case of a Westminster election, there is no provision for the result being invalidated by overspending.

    It is of course possible that individuals who were responsible for monitoring spending on each side might have committed offences if they have made false declarations (although if the time limits are the same as for Westminster elections they better get a shift on) but the result stands (unless I have missed something, being very tired and all).

    Source of funds is undisclosed
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880
    calum said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm feeling a bit tired so I want to make sure I have got this right. Is it being suggested that someone unknown funnelled £425K to the DUP so that they could campaign against Brexit and the person who did this happened to be a Conservative?

    Because, and correct me if I have this wrong, the Conservatives, led by DC and GO, were actually for remain and quite happy to use large quantities of taxpayers money to fund the campaign, as well as misusing the Civil Service, particularly the Treasury, to produce "information" during the campaign. It therefore seems somewhat unlikely that the same party was trying to give the DUP a bung to campaign against its declared policy.

    I am really not sure what this has to do with the Tories as a party or the government or why or how they were involved either at the time or now.

    Looking at the European referendum Act 2015 the question of permitted expenses is dealt with in Schedule 1, paragraph 25, by reference to the Political Parties, Elections and referendums Act 2000, schedule 14. These provisions entitle a permitted participant to spend up to £5m. It is not immediately obvious how that accords with both sides spending approximately £16m on the campaign but the more important point for present purposes is that, unlike the case of a Westminster election, there is no provision for the result being invalidated by overspending.

    It is of course possible that individuals who were responsible for monitoring spending on each side might have committed offences if they have made false declarations (although if the time limits are the same as for Westminster elections they better get a shift on) but the result stands (unless I have missed something, being very tired and all).

    Source of funds is undisclosed
    That's why I said "someone unknown" but its not likely to have been George is it?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,885
    Today's local by-elections for local people:

    Bolton, Farnworth
    Dacorum, Northchurch
    East Hampshire, Petersfield Bell Hill
    Harlow, Little Parndon & Hare Street
    Medway, Rochester West
    Nottingham, Wollaton West
    Rutland, Oakham South East
    Tameside, Droylsden East

    https://britainelects.com/2018/03/07/previews-08-mar-2018/
  • MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 47
    I agree the Senate map is very poor for the Dems.

    But if past experience in US races is anything to go by, we should be very wary of Named Person vs Generic Candidate polls. Generally speaking, my recollection is that once the GOP candidate is named, they perform less well than the generic.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880
    MTimT2 said:

    I agree the Senate map is very poor for the Dems.

    But if past experience in US races is anything to go by, we should be very wary of Named Person vs Generic Candidate polls. Generally speaking, my recollection is that once the GOP candidate is named, they perform less well than the generic.
    A point the GOP should really reflect on, especially after Alabama.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,535
    Surely the value is against the Lib Dems there? It's hard to see why the incumbent's star quality should transfer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,784
    Labour has accused the government of prioritising financial services over manufacturing in Brexit trade talks.

    Shadow chancellor John McDonnell said it was clear the government aimed to "win a deal for financial services first and then worry about the rest of the economy later".
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,518
    MTimT2 said:

    I agree the Senate map is very poor for the Dems.

    But if past experience in US races is anything to go by, we should be very wary of Named Person vs Generic Candidate polls. Generally speaking, my recollection is that once the GOP candidate is named, they perform less well than the generic.
    Agreed, and already noted. But the 8pt GOP lead in Indiana with a named candidate, and the 9 & 13 pt leads in MO/WV look at the very least like these seats should be Lean R rather than Tossup (in the standard media tables).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,754
    edited March 8
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
    Carlotta is a parody? That explains why she thought Bertie Ahern was the Irish PM at the time of Brexit before correcting it to “Edna” Kenny.
    Some would say that a Maybot loyalist who generously dispenses their Tory and Union and Brexit supporting wisdom while living abroad has to be a satirical construct, I couldn't possible comment.
    Carlotta is an exemplar of how to be a May-supporting Brexitomane with some degree of elegance and wit.

    The ones I detest are those who sit there in their Union Jack boxer shorts, Land of Hope and Glory playing in the background, while shouting at the TV because all the programmes on it are in foreign.
    *guilty start*

    *turns TV off*
    As far as I'm aware you live in this country. I was talking about those living abroad. Which, amazingly, rules out HYUFD also.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,648
    Scott_P said:
    Wow - it's incredible that people want to leave this amazing club - it's terrific.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,754

    nielh said:

    I doubt if this will change many minds in itself, though if substantial offences were committed it would of course tarnish everyone involved. I think we Remainers need to avoid a sort of Dolchstoss Legende building up in which we say the result was essentially illegitimate - we need to work on the basis that Leave won that one and work to limit the damage and maximise the chance of second thoughts or a later return. (The suggestion that this is in some way undemocratic is also piffle, of course.)

    O/T: My local sandwich cafe were ruminating on the Russian attack. The alleged umbrella murderer used to be a customer of theirs - "he always seemed very pleasant". They are eyeing their other customers a bit nervously.

    Both sides were moral equals, in my view.
    I would have thought immoral equals would have been more accurate.
    I caught up with the immigration Panorama earlier today. Extraordinary how all those people could have been taken in by such simplistic arguments.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,518

    Surely the value is against the Lib Dems there? It's hard to see why the incumbent's star quality should transfer.
    I reckon so too, but I have no on-the-ground knowledge. I know the Conservative candidate slightly as he was our candidate for Doncaster Mayor last year. I believe he is the only person to have stood for the Conservatives in all four constituent nations of the UK!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    MTimT2 said:

    I agree the Senate map is very poor for the Dems.

    But if past experience in US races is anything to go by, we should be very wary of Named Person vs Generic Candidate polls. Generally speaking, my recollection is that once the GOP candidate is named, they perform less well than the generic.
    Do any generic Republicans exist these days ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,535
    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
    Carlotta is a parody? That explains why she thought Bertie Ahern was the Irish PM at the time of Brexit before correcting it to “Edna” Kenny.
    Some would say that a Maybot loyalist who generously dispenses their Tory and Union and Brexit supporting wisdom while living abroad has to be a satirical construct, I couldn't possible comment.
    Carlotta is an exemplar of how to be a May-supporting Brexitomane with some degree of elegance and wit.

    The ones I detest are those who sit there in their Union Jack boxer shorts, Land of Hope and Glory playing in the background, while shouting at the TV because all the programmes on it are in foreign.
    *guilty start*

    *turns TV off*
    As far as I'm aware you live in this country. I was talking about those living abroad. Which also, amazingly, rules out HYUFD also.
    All of us are just people off of the internet and as such not of any interest in and of ourselves, no matter how mad our views.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
    Carlotta is a parody? That explains why she thought Bertie Ahern was the Irish PM at the time of Brexit before correcting it to “Edna” Kenny.
    Some would say that a Maybot loyalist who generously dispenses their Tory and Union and Brexit supporting wisdom while living abroad has to be a satirical construct, I couldn't possible comment.
    Carlotta is an exemplar of how to be a May-supporting Brexitomane with some degree of elegance and wit.

    The ones I detest are those who sit there in their Union Jack boxer shorts, Land of Hope and Glory playing in the background, while shouting at the TV because all the programmes on it are in foreign.
    *guilty start*

    *turns TV off*
    As far as I'm aware you live in this country. I was talking about those living abroad. Which also, amazingly, rules out HYUFD also.
    It seems that most of the Brexiteers on here live abroad!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,754

    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    Parody expat Yoon reposts parody account tweeting about parody news prog.
    Marvellous stuff.
    Carlotta is a parody? That explains why she thought Bertie Ahern was the Irish PM at the time of Brexit before correcting it to “Edna” Kenny.
    Some would say that a Maybot loyalist who generously dispenses their Tory and Union and Brexit supporting wisdom while living abroad has to be a satirical construct, I couldn't possible comment.
    Carlotta is an exemplar of how to be a May-supporting Brexitomane with some degree of elegance and wit.

    The ones I detest are those who sit there in their Union Jack boxer shorts, Land of Hope and Glory playing in the background, while shouting at the TV because all the programmes on it are in foreign.
    *guilty start*

    *turns TV off*
    As far as I'm aware you live in this country. I was talking about those living abroad. Which also, amazingly, rules out HYUFD also.
    All of us are just people off of the internet and as such not of any interest in and of ourselves, no matter how mad our views.
    Nevertheless there is an amusing expat angle to some of our most fervent Brexiters.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    TOPPING said:

    nielh said:

    I doubt if this will change many minds in itself, though if substantial offences were committed it would of course tarnish everyone involved. I think we Remainers need to avoid a sort of Dolchstoss Legende building up in which we say the result was essentially illegitimate - we need to work on the basis that Leave won that one and work to limit the damage and maximise the chance of second thoughts or a later return. (The suggestion that this is in some way undemocratic is also piffle, of course.)

    O/T: My local sandwich cafe were ruminating on the Russian attack. The alleged umbrella murderer used to be a customer of theirs - "he always seemed very pleasant". They are eyeing their other customers a bit nervously.

    Both sides were moral equals, in my view.
    I would have thought immoral equals would have been more accurate.
    I caught up with the immigration Panorama earlier today. Extraordinary how all those people could have been taken in by such simplistic arguments.
    There was an interesting FT article on unintended consequences of populism:

    https://www.ft.com/content/495002da-220f-11e8-9a70-08f715791301

    When people rage against the powers that be, it is useful for those powers to be to blame foreigners or the EU, the next wave is reaction against the rich.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    Remember Blair's project to computerise the NHS, abandoned around 2011 ?
    Looks as though the suppliers found another gullible fool:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/08/veterans-military-health-system-trump-386232
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    edited March 8
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    nielh said:

    I doubt if this will change many minds in itself, though if substantial offences were committed it would of course tarnish everyone involved. I think we Remainers need to avoid a sort of Dolchstoss Legende building up in which we say the result was essentially illegitimate - we need to work on the basis that Leave won that one and work to limit the damage and maximise the chance of second thoughts or a later return. (The suggestion that this is in some way undemocratic is also piffle, of course.)

    O/T: My local sandwich cafe were ruminating on the Russian attack. The alleged umbrella murderer used to be a customer of theirs - "he always seemed very pleasant". They are eyeing their other customers a bit nervously.

    Both sides were moral equals, in my view.
    I would have thought immoral equals would have been more accurate.
    I caught up with the immigration Panorama earlier today. Extraordinary how all those people could have been taken in by such simplistic arguments.
    There was an interesting FT article on unintended consequences of populism:

    https://www.ft.com/content/495002da-220f-11e8-9a70-08f715791301

    When people rage against the powers that be, it is useful for those powers to be to blame foreigners or the EU, the next wave is reaction against the rich.
    Do you have the title of that FT article Foxy? I can read FT articles if I google the title but if I follow your link I hit the paywall. Cheers :smile:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited March 8

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    nielh said:

    I doubt if this will change many minds in itself, though if substantial offences were committed it would of course tarnish everyone involved. I think we Remainers need to avoid a sort of Dolchstoss Legende building up in which we say the result was essentially illegitimate - we need to work on the basis that Leave won that one and work to limit the damage and maximise the chance of second thoughts or a later return. (The suggestion that this is in some way undemocratic is also piffle, of course.)

    O/T: My local sandwich cafe were ruminating on the Russian attack. The alleged umbrella murderer used to be a customer of theirs - "he always seemed very pleasant". They are eyeing their other customers a bit nervously.

    Both sides were moral equals, in my view.
    I would have thought immoral equals would have been more accurate.
    I caught up with the immigration Panorama earlier today. Extraordinary how all those people could have been taken in by such simplistic arguments.
    There was an interesting FT article on unintended consequences of populism:

    https://www.ft.com/content/495002da-220f-11e8-9a70-08f715791301

    When people rage against the powers that be, it is useful for those powers to be to blame foreigners or the EU, the next wave is reaction against the rich.
    Do you have the title of that FT article Foxy? I can read FT articles if I google the title but if I follow your link I hit the paywall. Cheers :smile:
    "Brexit Britain may soon be humming John McDonnell’s Marxist tune"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,487
    Nigelb said:

    Remember Blair's project to computerise the NHS, abandoned around 2011 ?
    Looks as though the suppliers found another gullible fool:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/08/veterans-military-health-system-trump-386232

    Ten, maybe twelve years ago, I went to a talk about how the VA health system was built around open source code. Can't remember the name of the system. I wonder what happened to that initiative?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    As ever, reading the comments on that order-order article is a salutary experience.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    John_M said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    nielh said:

    I doubt if this will change many minds in itself, though if substantial offences were committed it would of course tarnish everyone involved. I think we Remainers need to avoid a sort of Dolchstoss Legende building up in which we say the result was essentially illegitimate - we need to work on the basis that Leave won that one and work to limit the damage and maximise the chance of second thoughts or a later return. (The suggestion that this is in some way undemocratic is also piffle, of course.)

    O/T: My local sandwich cafe were ruminating on the Russian attack. The alleged umbrella murderer used to be a customer of theirs - "he always seemed very pleasant". They are eyeing their other customers a bit nervously.

    Both sides were moral equals, in my view.
    I would have thought immoral equals would have been more accurate.
    I caught up with the immigration Panorama earlier today. Extraordinary how all those people could have been taken in by such simplistic arguments.
    There was an interesting FT article on unintended consequences of populism:

    https://www.ft.com/content/495002da-220f-11e8-9a70-08f715791301

    When people rage against the powers that be, it is useful for those powers to be to blame foreigners or the EU, the next wave is reaction against the rich.
    Do you have the title of that FT article Foxy? I can read FT articles if I google the title but if I follow your link I hit the paywall. Cheers :smile:
    "Brexit Britain may soon be humming John McDonnell’s Marxist tune"
    Thanks!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,478

    Surely the value is against the Lib Dems there? It's hard to see why the incumbent's star quality should transfer.
    I wouldn't bet at the Ladbrokes odds and I've lost enough money in recent times on Watford elections. But the LD candidate is the current deputy mayor and is relatively well known. I know that the Tories are trying hard there
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    John_M said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    nielh said:

    I doubt if this will change many minds in itself, though if substantial offences were committed it would of course tarnish everyone involved. I think we Remainers need to avoid a sort of Dolchstoss Legende building up in which we say the result was essentially illegitimate - we need to work on the basis that Leave won that one and work to limit the damage and maximise the chance of second thoughts or a later return. (The suggestion that this is in some way undemocratic is also piffle, of course.)

    O/T: My local sandwich cafe were ruminating on the Russian attack. The alleged umbrella murderer used to be a customer of theirs - "he always seemed very pleasant". They are eyeing their other customers a bit nervously.

    Both sides were moral equals, in my view.
    I would have thought immoral equals would have been more accurate.
    I caught up with the immigration Panorama earlier today. Extraordinary how all those people could have been taken in by such simplistic arguments.
    There was an interesting FT article on unintended consequences of populism:

    https://www.ft.com/content/495002da-220f-11e8-9a70-08f715791301

    When people rage against the powers that be, it is useful for those powers to be to blame foreigners or the EU, the next wave is reaction against the rich.
    Do you have the title of that FT article Foxy? I can read FT articles if I google the title but if I follow your link I hit the paywall. Cheers :smile:
    "Brexit Britain may soon be humming John McDonnell’s Marxist tune"
    Is that the one that Heidi Alexander's ragtime band refused to play ?
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 342
    edited March 8

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    nielh said:

    I doubt if this will change many minds in itself, though if substantial offences were committed it would of course tarnish everyone involved. I think we Remainers need to avoid a sort of Dolchstoss Legende building up in which we say the result was essentially illegitimate - we need to work on the basis that Leave won that one and work to limit the damage and maximise the chance of second thoughts or a later return. (The suggestion that this is in some way undemocratic is also piffle, of course.)

    O/T: My local sandwich cafe were ruminating on the Russian attack. The alleged umbrella murderer used to be a customer of theirs - "he always seemed very pleasant". They are eyeing their other customers a bit nervously.

    Both sides were moral equals, in my view.
    I would have thought immoral equals would have been more accurate.
    I caught up with the immigration Panorama earlier today. Extraordinary how all those people could have been taken in by such simplistic arguments.
    There was an interesting FT article on unintended consequences of populism:

    https://www.ft.com/content/495002da-220f-11e8-9a70-08f715791301

    When people rage against the powers that be, it is useful for those powers to be to blame foreigners or the EU, the next wave is reaction against the rich.
    Do you have the title of that FT article Foxy? I can read FT articles if I google the title but if I follow your link I hit the paywall. Cheers :smile:
    If you google for the article id - in this case '495002da-220f-11e8-9a70-08f715791301' - you can use the google link to get in that way.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,738

    Surely the value is against the Lib Dems there? It's hard to see why the incumbent's star quality should transfer.
    I wouldn't bet at the Ladbrokes odds and I've lost enough money in recent times on Watford elections. But the LD candidate is the current deputy mayor and is relatively well known. I know that the Tories are trying hard there
    Lib Dems still 4-5 for Sutton council.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,885
    edited March 8
    No takers for a seat on Tiverton town council:

    "Election for new Tiverton Town Council is delayed after no valid candidates come forward"
    https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/election-new-tiverton-town-council-1275669
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,518
    Apologies if already covered, but some of the details here in this account of Selmayr's ascendancy are jaw-dropping.

    One commissioner who was present at the meeting where Selmayr was promoted later explained to me what happened (he spoke on condition of anonymity, which is in itself telling as he is supposed to be a heavyweight). They were called to a 9.30 a.m. meeting where Juncker presented them with nominations. Selmayr was named not as the Secretary-General, but as the deputy — a post that was known to be vacant. Selmayr’s promotion was unexpected, but Juncker assured them that all was above board.

    Then came the coup de grâce. Having appointed Selmayr as deputy, Juncker announced that the Secretary-General — ltalianer — had resigned. So Selmayr, having been deputy for just a few minutes, would take his place from 1 March. ‘It was totally stunning,’ the commissioner told me. ‘We had witnessed an impeccably prepared and audacious power-grab.’ Before anyone else could find out about this unprecedented double-promotion, an email was sent out summoning journalists to the press conference — where Selmayr was confirmed. A fait accompli.


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/a-very-eu-coup-martin-selmayrs-astonishing-power-grab/
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 816

    As ever, reading the comments on that order-order article is a salutary experience.
    Even the wording on the article itself displays a jaw-dropping disregard of facts.

    "... the electoral bias to Labour".

    Which, of course, manifests itself in a 13 seat advantage to the Tories on equal vote shares of 42-42.

    What?
This discussion has been closed.