Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren makes first move for a possible 2020 White House bid

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren makes first move for a possible 2020 White House bid

At a dinner in Washington on Wednesday high profile Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, made what is being seen as the start of her bid to win the 2020 White House race.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,553
    edited March 9
    First.

    I'm just wondering how US politics could get more preposterous. The Democrats should roll with the tide and put up a suitably unsuitable candidate. I'm struggling to think of anyone unsuitable enough ...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    Second! Like Corby, Remain & Yes.....
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 726
    I would have loved it to have been Sanders last time but this time seems like a bit of a stretch.

    Third like.... spoilt ballots in the EU referendum.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    I think you are probably wrong about Biden.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    On tariffs, this describes the real threat of Trump's move. By yet again violatin an established norm (the appropriate use of the national security exemption), he threatens the entire WTO system:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/08/trumps-tariffs-global-order-396508?lo=ap_b1
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    And if you're looking for a Demicrat insurgent candidate, Gillibrand might be an interesting punt:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/08/gillibrand-texas-democratic-primary-445454
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,051
    At the moment my betting on this market has been to lay Michelle, Oprah, Hillary and Kamala Harris (front runner on betfair somehow).

    7/1 doesn't seem too bad to me tbh for Warren.
    She could be a unity candidate between Bernie and Hillary.
    She's left wing enough to enthuse the base.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    Nigelb said:

    On tariffs, this describes the real threat of Trump's move. By yet again violatin an established norm (the appropriate use of the national security exemption), he threatens the entire WTO system:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/08/trumps-tariffs-global-order-396508?lo=ap_b1

    Its even dumber and more ridiculous than I thought:

    “The U.S. military requirements for steel and aluminum each only represent about three percent of U.S. production,” Mattis wrote in a memo. “Therefore, DoD does not believe that the findings in the reports impact the ability of DoD programs to acquire the steel or aluminum necessary to meet national defense requirements.”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    rkrkrk said:

    At the moment my betting on this market has been to lay Michelle, Oprah, Hillary and Kamala Harris (front runner on betfair somehow).

    7/1 doesn't seem too bad to me tbh for Warren.
    She could be a unity candidate between Bernie and Hillary.
    She's left wing enough to enthuse the base.

    I reckon it's between her, Biden, and whoever grabs the young insurgent mantle. The party establishment is not going to choose the next nominee - and the only candidate it could be of help to is Biden, who could plausibly unite the two sides of the party.

  • MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 47

    anyone unsuitable enough ...

    Bill Cosby, Harvey Weinstein, Bernie Madoff ... All have good Democrat credentials.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,051
    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    At the moment my betting on this market has been to lay Michelle, Oprah, Hillary and Kamala Harris (front runner on betfair somehow).

    7/1 doesn't seem too bad to me tbh for Warren.
    She could be a unity candidate between Bernie and Hillary.
    She's left wing enough to enthuse the base.

    I reckon it's between her, Biden, and whoever grabs the young insurgent mantle. The party establishment is not going to choose the next nominee - and the only candidate it could be of help to is Biden, who could plausibly unite the two sides of the party.

    At this stage I think you have to significantly adjust for uncertainty as to whether candidates will run. Probably they don't even know for sure. I suspect Biden might not run.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    At the moment my betting on this market has been to lay Michelle, Oprah, Hillary and Kamala Harris (front runner on betfair somehow).

    7/1 doesn't seem too bad to me tbh for Warren.
    She could be a unity candidate between Bernie and Hillary.
    She's left wing enough to enthuse the base.

    I reckon it's between her, Biden, and whoever grabs the young insurgent mantle. The party establishment is not going to choose the next nominee - and the only candidate it could be of help to is Biden, who could plausibly unite the two sides of the party.

    At this stage I think you have to significantly adjust for uncertainty as to whether candidates will run. Probably they don't even know for sure. I suspect Biden might not run.
    I don't disagree with that. But if he does, he's likely the front runner.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998
    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    At the moment my betting on this market has been to lay Michelle, Oprah, Hillary and Kamala Harris (front runner on betfair somehow).

    7/1 doesn't seem too bad to me tbh for Warren.
    She could be a unity candidate between Bernie and Hillary.
    She's left wing enough to enthuse the base.

    I reckon it's between her, Biden, and whoever grabs the young insurgent mantle. The party establishment is not going to choose the next nominee - and the only candidate it could be of help to is Biden, who could plausibly unite the two sides of the party.

    At this stage I think you have to significantly adjust for uncertainty as to whether candidates will run. Probably they don't even know for sure. I suspect Biden might not run.
    I don't disagree with that. But if he does, he's likely the front runner.

    I'd be very surprised if he stood. Less than 20% chance, I'd wager.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998
    MTimT2 said:

    anyone unsuitable enough ...

    Bill Cosby, Harvey Weinstein, Bernie Madoff ... All have good Democrat credentials.
    You could add Donald Trump that list.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998

    Nigelb said:

    On tariffs, this describes the real threat of Trump's move. By yet again violatin an established norm (the appropriate use of the national security exemption), he threatens the entire WTO system:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/08/trumps-tariffs-global-order-396508?lo=ap_b1

    Its even dumber and more ridiculous than I thought:

    “The U.S. military requirements for steel and aluminum each only represent about three percent of U.S. production,” Mattis wrote in a memo. “Therefore, DoD does not believe that the findings in the reports impact the ability of DoD programs to acquire the steel or aluminum necessary to meet national defense requirements.”
    If you count national security as encompassing the armed forces, military procurement, energy and food production, you still end up at less than a quarter of US steel production.
  • MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 47
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT2 said:

    anyone unsuitable enough ...

    Bill Cosby, Harvey Weinstein, Bernie Madoff ... All have good Democrat credentials.
    You could add Donald Trump that list.

    LOL
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998
    edited March 9
    My guess is that the Democrats 2020 nominee will be under the age of 50, and will be someone none of us have ever heard of.

    Could I suggest Chris Murphy (Senator, Connecticut) or Gina Raimondo (Governor, Rhode Island)?

    (Or Ralph Northam?)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998
    For the record, I have a very small amount of money on John Hickenlooper, who fails the "young insurgent" test, but passes the "very silly name" test.

    He's won twice as Governor in a swing state, and has executive experience.

    Why not?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,309
    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I have a very small amount of money on John Hickenlooper, who fails the "young insurgent" test, but passes the "very silly name" test.

    He's won twice as Governor in a swing state, and has executive experience.

    Why not?

    In the light of events in Salisbury and your avitar, might I suggest you've got a nerve (agent) ....

    I'll get my cape ...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,344
    edited March 9
    Biden looks too centrist and possibly too old. Warren may look a bit too much like Hilary to offer a fresh approach, without being sufficiently insurgent to appeal to the Sanders crowd. I think Sanders could well be kingmaker - his endorsemen will be worh a lot if he doesn't run, but can he resist?

    On the wider news, Trump is trying a "Nixon in China"/"Reagan in Iceland" gambit, and deserves more credit than he's getting. Because he's not a detail man there's a risk that his aides will bog him down in traditional demands which get nowhere, which is arguably what happened in Iceland to Reagan when he nearly reached a nuclear reduction deal with Gorbachev which went way beyond what most advisers wanted. It's a risk, but the status quo was a bigger risk.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 726
    I would love it if Sanders ran, he's quite energetic considering his age currently but I worry how much longer that could carry on.

    Are there particularly Bernie like, or at least Bernie lite candidates hanging around in the younger ranks?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,535
    Looks like a good market to be laying the favourite for some time to come.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,036
    Bad night for the Tories in the local by-elections last night.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,266

    Bad night for the Tories in the local by-elections last night.

    Preparation for opposition intensifies....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,036
    RobD said:

    Bad night for the Tories in the local by-elections last night.

    Preparation for opposition intensifies....
    Yres; good night for Independents, too. Wonder if that presages anything.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,789

    First.

    I'm just wondering how US politics could get more preposterous. The Democrats should roll with the tide and put up a suitably unsuitable candidate. I'm struggling to think of anyone unsuitable enough ...

    Sanders.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    edited March 9
    Insanity - running the same experiment twice in the expectation of a different result.

    A white septuagenarian female insider (because it's time for a female president) who has boundless arrogance, nil understanding of economic issues and zero empathy for swing voters didn't quite work last time. Let's try it again and see what happens.

    I mean, what was so bad about last time? Oh, that's right, it gave us Donald Trump as President. Thanks guys, we appreciate that so much.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,789
    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I have a very small amount of money on John Hickenlooper, who fails the "young insurgent" test, but passes the "very silly name" test.

    He's won twice as Governor in a swing state, and has executive experience.

    Why not?

    That's the kind of profile I've been thinking could do well. I think the Dems have made a mistake running with Senators so frequently - it ties them to DC politics too much (yes, Obama won but he had exceptional campaign skills and attributes and was relatively new to Washington - and even he didn't win by all that much).

    Warren will be 71 by the time of the next election, which would set another new record for the oldest-ever first-term president (though would potentially be up against Trump who, at 74, would be seeking to be the oldest person ever elected to the office). It really is time the next generation came through.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253

    I would love it if Sanders ran, he's quite energetic considering his age currently but I worry how much longer that could carry on.

    Are there particularly Bernie like, or at least Bernie lite candidates hanging around in the younger ranks?

    Too soon for him, but Rijard Ojeda looks interesting!

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,518
    RobD said:

    Bad night for the Tories in the local by-elections last night.

    Preparation for opposition intensifies....
    JRM is going to be a terrific Leader of the Opposition. He could easily be in the top 12 of the last 20 LotOs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,738
    The first ever native American president :o
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    Bad night for the Tories in the local by-elections last night.

    Preparation for opposition intensifies....
    JRM is going to be a terrific Leader of the Opposition. He could easily be in the top 12 of the last 20 LotOs.
    It's not exactly a field of fearsome competition. Corbyn, Foot, Duncan Smith, Kinnock, Heath, Home...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880
    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I have a very small amount of money on John Hickenlooper, who fails the "young insurgent" test, but passes the "very silly name" test.

    He's won twice as Governor in a swing state, and has executive experience.

    Why not?

    I really liked Richard Ojeda (pretty high marks on the weird name test without being off the scale) you linked to the other day.

    If he wins and goes to Congress he could become a national figure fairly quickly. The Democrats really need something different and a lot more authentic to take on Trump. And, in my opinion, Warren is just more of the same.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I have a very small amount of money on John Hickenlooper, who fails the "young insurgent" test, but passes the "very silly name" test.

    He's won twice as Governor in a swing state, and has executive experience.

    Why not?

    Governor rather than Senator is a good tip, better executive experience and less DC.

    Sanders and Biden are too old and I don't think either will run, but endorsement may be important.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,789

    Biden looks too centrist and possibly too old. Warren may look a bit too much like Hilary to offer a fresh approach, without being sufficiently insurgent to appeal to the Sanders crowd. I think Sanders could well be kingmaker - his endorsemen will be worh a lot if he doesn't run, but can he resist?

    On the wider news, Trump is trying a "Nixon in China"/"Reagan in Iceland" gambit, and deserves more credit than he's getting. Because he's not a detail man there's a risk that his aides will bog him down in traditional demands which get nowhere, which is arguably what happened in Iceland to Reagan when he nearly reached a nuclear reduction deal with Gorbachev which went way beyond what most advisers wanted. It's a risk, but the status quo was a bigger risk.

    I'm afraid I don't agree. Reagan had the chance to strike an ambitious deal because Gorbachev wanted reform and cuts to his military expenditure.

    By contrast, I don't see any possibility at all that Kim will give up his nuclear programme (indeed, he's said as much). So why then does he want to engage in talks? There are only two rational explanations I can think of for now. One - in line with past N Korean actions - is that he can cut a deal that banks past gains and cuts sanctions without giving up anything of significance. He'll then later revert to carrying on testing and developing, which he'll claim is in response to some 'provocation', like S Korea having an army, or something. The other, is that he thinks he's already reached a state of equality and is happy to give up future development in return for recognition of the status quo. Neither should be satisfactory to the US.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,652
    Pulpstar said:

    The first ever native American president :o

    If that doesn't get the Rust Belt out I don't know what will.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880
    Foxy said:

    I would love it if Sanders ran, he's quite energetic considering his age currently but I worry how much longer that could carry on.

    Are there particularly Bernie like, or at least Bernie lite candidates hanging around in the younger ranks?

    Too soon for him, but Rijard Ojeda looks interesting!

    Snap. Its an awesome campaign video isn't it? From what I have read he seems very aggressive about defending the rights of ordinary Americans, such as teachers. It's remarkable how little east coast "liberals" really seem to get that being much more interested in gender politics and minority interests.

    He speaks well too. In a party crying out for new leadership he could rise fast but he has to win his Congressional seat which voted for Trump by something like 80% (and could you get a better indicator of the way to go than that?).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    I would love it if Sanders ran, he's quite energetic considering his age currently but I worry how much longer that could carry on.

    Are there particularly Bernie like, or at least Bernie lite candidates hanging around in the younger ranks?

    Too soon for him, but Rijard Ojeda looks interesting!

    Snap. Its an awesome campaign video isn't it? From what I have read he seems very aggressive about defending the rights of ordinary Americans, such as teachers. It's remarkable how little east coast "liberals" really seem to get that being much more interested in gender politics and minority interests.

    He speaks well too. In a party crying out for new leadership he could rise fast but he has to win his Congressional seat which voted for Trump by something like 80% (and could you get a better indicator of the way to go than that?).
    Interesting backstory too. Grandson of an undocumented Mexican migrant, but challenge his patriotism at your own immense peril!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,036
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I have a very small amount of money on John Hickenlooper, who fails the "young insurgent" test, but passes the "very silly name" test.

    He's won twice as Governor in a swing state, and has executive experience.

    Why not?

    I really liked Richard Ojeda (pretty high marks on the weird name test without being off the scale) you linked to the other day.

    If he wins and goes to Congress he could become a national figure fairly quickly. The Democrats really need something different and a lot more authentic to take on Trump. And, in my opinion, Warren is just more of the same.
    VP nest time (but one)?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,344



    I'm afraid I don't agree. Reagan had the chance to strike an ambitious deal because Gorbachev wanted reform and cuts to his military expenditure.

    By contrast, I don't see any possibility at all that Kim will give up his nuclear programme (indeed, he's said as much). So why then does he want to engage in talks? There are only two rational explanations I can think of for now. One - in line with past N Korean actions - is that he can cut a deal that banks past gains and cuts sanctions without giving up anything of significance. He'll then later revert to carrying on testing and developing, which he'll claim is in response to some 'provocation', like S Korea having an army, or something. The other, is that he thinks he's already reached a state of equality and is happy to give up future development in return for recognition of the status quo. Neither should be satisfactory to the US.

    Opion 1 is clearly unacceptable. Option 2 seems a lesser evil than what appeared to be a spiral into a real risk of nuclear war. We've put up with an awful lot of nasty leaders hanging around so long as they didn't do anything active to other countries.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,338
    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,344

    RobD said:

    Bad night for the Tories in the local by-elections last night.

    Preparation for opposition intensifies....
    Yres; good night for Independents, too. Wonder if that presages anything.
    I think there's more anti-Tory voting han pro-anyone voting at the moment, so voters coalesce around whoever seems the most effective non-Tory, including independents. Pretty much all the results last night fit with that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    At the moment my betting on this market has been to lay Michelle, Oprah, Hillary and Kamala Harris (front runner on betfair somehow).

    7/1 doesn't seem too bad to me tbh for Warren.
    She could be a unity candidate between Bernie and Hillary.
    She's left wing enough to enthuse the base.

    I reckon it's between her, Biden, and whoever grabs the young insurgent mantle. The party establishment is not going to choose the next nominee - and the only candidate it could be of help to is Biden, who could plausibly unite the two sides of the party.

    At this stage I think you have to significantly adjust for uncertainty as to whether candidates will run. Probably they don't even know for sure. I suspect Biden might not run.
    I don't disagree with that. But if he does, he's likely the front runner.

    I'd be very surprised if he stood. Less than 20% chance, I'd wager.
    I'd take those odds for a small amount, if you're serious ?

    I don't think Biden is going to pass up a chance to run against a candidate who completely negates the age question - and if he does, he'll likely win.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    ydoethur said:

    Insanity - running the same experiment twice in the expectation of a different result.

    A white septuagenarian female insider (because it's time for a female president) who has boundless arrogance, nil understanding of economic issues and zero empathy for swing voters didn't quite work last time. Let's try it again and see what happens.

    I mean, what was so bad about last time? Oh, that's right, it gave us Donald Trump as President. Thanks guys, we appreciate that so much.

    I think that's a little infair - Warren is no insider in the manner of Clinton, and would be a far better campaigner, but I agree she'd not be the optimal choice.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Good morning, everyone.

    Yeah, the odds are short given the uncertainty and the time scale involved. For reasons of Morris Dancer's Wallet, it would be better if Harris or Gillibrand got it.

    F1: final day of testing live feed is up here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43288515
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880
    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,441

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I have a very small amount of money on John Hickenlooper, who fails the "young insurgent" test, but passes the "very silly name" test.

    He's won twice as Governor in a swing state, and has executive experience.

    Why not?

    I really liked Richard Ojeda (pretty high marks on the weird name test without being off the scale) you linked to the other day.

    If he wins and goes to Congress he could become a national figure fairly quickly. The Democrats really need something different and a lot more authentic to take on Trump. And, in my opinion, Warren is just more of the same.
    VP nest time (but one)?
    Small state w/o a regional influence
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 726
    edited March 9
    On Ojeda the Democrat running for West Virginia.

    He voted for Trump which is the big shock but it is an interesting interview (so far) focuses seem to be the more economic case and the left, talks a lot of things I like.

    Although this is TYT which is Sanders like program so he could just be selling to his base. Regardless I haven't heard him say much I don't like... apart from maybe voting Trump he is impressive in what he says not just a good campaign video.

    Titled A Pro-Trump Progressive Candidate?!
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=rnRbiq1f0iQ

    Edit: Towards the end he mentions he supported Sanders so maybe not just stuff for the benefit of TYT.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,243

    I would love it if Sanders ran, he's quite energetic considering his age currently but I worry how much longer that could carry on.

    Are there particularly Bernie like, or at least Bernie lite candidates hanging around in the younger ranks?

    Tulso Gabbard, but she has, shall we say, robust views on Muslims.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,082
    If Trump is going to North Korea , I hope Snake Plissken is on standby.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    Jonathan said:

    If Trump is going to North Korea , I hope Snake Plissken is on standby.

    Campaign promise never to do so makes it rather unlikely.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880

    On Ojeda the Democrat running for West Virginia.

    He voted for Trump which is the big shock but it is an interesting interview (so far) focuses seem to be the more economic case and the left, talks a lot of things I like.

    Although this is TYT which is Sanders like program so he could just be selling to his base. Regardless I haven't heard him say much I don't like... apart from maybe voting Trump he is impressive in what he says not just a good campaign video.

    Titled A Pro-Trump Progressive Candidate?!
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=rnRbiq1f0iQ

    Edit: Towards the end he mentions he supported Sanders so maybe not just stuff for the benefit of TYT.

    We talk about the gaps between Momentum and the traditional Labour member and between the Brexit loonies and your one nation Conservatives but they are nothing to the chasm between Coastal democrats and those in the flyover. It really doesn't surprise me he voted for Trump. Trump may be a liar and a fraud but at least he was interested enough to lie and deceive about the right things.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463

    Good morning, everyone.

    Yeah, the odds are short given the uncertainty and the time scale involved. For reasons of Morris Dancer's Wallet, it would be better if Harris or Gillibrand got it.

    F1: final day of testing live feed is up here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43288515

    Morning, Mr.D.
    Last chance for Mercedes to indicate their real pace (though they might well resist the temptation).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. Eagles, this reminds me of something I read just yesterday:
    in the mid-twelfth century a destrier (warhorse) could cost the equivalent of 4,500 sheep.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434
    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I have a very small amount of money on John Hickenlooper, who fails the "young insurgent" test, but passes the "very silly name" test.

    He's won twice as Governor in a swing state, and has executive experience.

    Why not?

    No, that's only fairly silly. John C. Hickenlooper would have nailed it, but his middle name is Wright.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,441

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    If you added that much demonstrable value to your employer I’m sure they would pay you as much
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,072
    The way the pendulum is swinging at the moment i'd be looking at someone on exactly the opposite end of the spectrum to Trump. Female civilised young attractive honest and with a deep socal conscience. A female Joe Kennedy 111
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,441
    Roger said:

    The way the pendulum is swinging at the moment i'd be looking at someone on exactly the opposite end of the spectrum to Trump. Female civilised young attractive honest and with a deep socal conscience. A female Joe Kennedy 111

    In your dreams Roger...
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 874
    Is there a betting market up for when Bercow will resign/retire? Sooner rather than later I'd say given today's BBC story.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    If you added that much demonstrable value to your employer I’m sure they would pay you as much
    I'm currently undertaking our pay gap review at work.

    Turns out I'm one of the problems, no one has had as many pay reviews/increases as me in the last few years.

    As an aside there's a great scope for manipulating the gender pay gap figures depending on the methodology you use.

    Arithmetic mean, median, or modal salaries really can distort figures.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 874

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    If you added that much demonstrable value to your employer I’m sure they would pay you as much
    I'm currently undertaking our pay gap review at work.

    Turns out I'm one of the problems, no one has had as many pay reviews/increases as me in the last few years.

    As an aside there's a great scope for manipulating the gender pay gap figures depending on the methodology you use.

    Arithmetic mean, median, or modal salaries really can distort figures.
    Which is presumably why organisations publish mean and median? Are part time workers pro-rata'd? I'd imagine that would make a big difference.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,180
    I imagine the Democratic grassroots have been somewhat radicalised by Trump. I think any Democrat perceived as "corporatist" will struggle, ruling out Booker, Gilibrand etc and helping Warren a lot. The only centrist I can see winning it is Biden due to the lovable uncle place he holds in liberal hearts.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 726
    @DavidL

    Yeah it has felt like the Democrat party is just there to advance social values for a while, Ojeda from the sounds of it is running the kind of Democrat campaign I have thought they should do for a while, hammer away on economics make everything else secondary and as reasonable as possible. Obviously I wouldn't be a trump voter myself but even that really works for his benefit in this regard.

    Whoever mentioned the other one she does seem very on the hawkish side but I figure the Democrats usually have to be pretty hawkish to get anywhere. Saw an interview where she seemed to reasonably explain some Muslim criticism. Probably not my perfect choice but seems a decent prospect.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,180
    DavidL said:

    On Ojeda the Democrat running for West Virginia.

    He voted for Trump which is the big shock but it is an interesting interview (so far) focuses seem to be the more economic case and the left, talks a lot of things I like.

    Although this is TYT which is Sanders like program so he could just be selling to his base. Regardless I haven't heard him say much I don't like... apart from maybe voting Trump he is impressive in what he says not just a good campaign video.

    Titled A Pro-Trump Progressive Candidate?!
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=rnRbiq1f0iQ

    Edit: Towards the end he mentions he supported Sanders so maybe not just stuff for the benefit of TYT.

    We talk about the gaps between Momentum and the traditional Labour member and between the Brexit loonies and your one nation Conservatives but they are nothing to the chasm between Coastal democrats and those in the flyover. It really doesn't surprise me he voted for Trump. Trump may be a liar and a fraud but at least he was interested enough to lie and deceive about the right things.
    Doug Jones supported universal healthcare, gun regulation and abortion rights yet won Alabama.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    edited March 9
    TudorRose said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    If you added that much demonstrable value to your employer I’m sure they would pay you as much
    I'm currently undertaking our pay gap review at work.

    Turns out I'm one of the problems, no one has had as many pay reviews/increases as me in the last few years.

    As an aside there's a great scope for manipulating the gender pay gap figures depending on the methodology you use.

    Arithmetic mean, median, or modal salaries really can distort figures.
    Which is presumably why organisations publish mean and median? Are part time workers pro-rata'd? I'd imagine that would make a big difference.
    Yeah we pro rata it up to make it an FTE.

    We kind of point out lower paid employees work circa 35 hours a week, whereas our top end employees can work up to 80 to 100 hours a week at times.

    On the flip side I'm the reason why an ethnic minority employee gets paid more than a white British employee*

    I'm sure Tommy Robinson will be out protesting against us soon.

    *Small sample sizes really do distort things.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 918

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    There is no shortage of graduate journalists, and eventhe best are pretty fungible. Moreover, there is a substantial number of people who are prepared to write for free. Whereas there is exactly one funny topical cartoonist in the country, very possibly in the English speaking world. Moreover, Matt IS the Telegraph - he embodies its values far better than any oped writer, and Matt is the reason a significant proportion of Telegraph loyalists stick with the paper - indeed, many will take in no more than the cartoon on a slow day. I'd say the Telegraph have themselves a bargain.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,441

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    If you added that much demonstrable value to your employer I’m sure they would pay you as much
    I'm currently undertaking our pay gap review at work.

    Turns out I'm one of the problems, no one has had as many pay reviews/increases as me in the last few years.

    As an aside there's a great scope for manipulating the gender pay gap figures depending on the methodology you use.

    Arithmetic mean, median, or modal salaries really can distort figures.
    Using modal here would be taking the piss.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,378

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    Blimey.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    edited March 9
    If Sanders does not run Warren is the likeliest nominee in my view, she captures the populist mood of the Democratic base at the moment. However I think Trump would find her easier to beat than Biden and Sanders and early 2020 polling confirms that.

    As Trump will be 74 when he seeks re election I doubt the fact Biden and Sanders are also in their 70s will have much impact. In fact challengers to a sitting President tend to be older experienced hands e.g. Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, Reagan, McGovern, Goldwater etc rather than younger fresher figures likes Kennedy, Carter, Dukakis, W Bush, Obama etc who tend to challenge VPs and/or run after 8 years of the opposition party in the White House. Clinton of course only ran after 12 years of a Republican in the Oval Office

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,378

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    If you added that much demonstrable value to your employer I’m sure they would pay you as much
    I'm currently undertaking our pay gap review at work.

    Turns out I'm one of the problems, no one has had as many pay reviews/increases as me in the last few years.

    As an aside there's a great scope for manipulating the gender pay gap figures depending on the methodology you use.

    Arithmetic mean, median, or modal salaries really can distort figures.
    The senior HR folks at my place of work, all women, seem in general frustrated at how poorly the pay gap is actually understood, precisely because it can be distorted and may not indicate what poor reporting thinks.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 874

    TudorRose said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    If you added that much demonstrable value to your employer I’m sure they would pay you as much
    I'm currently undertaking our pay gap review at work.

    Turns out I'm one of the problems, no one has had as many pay reviews/increases as me in the last few years.

    As an aside there's a great scope for manipulating the gender pay gap figures depending on the methodology you use.

    Arithmetic mean, median, or modal salaries really can distort figures.
    Which is presumably why organisations publish mean and median? Are part time workers pro-rata'd? I'd imagine that would make a big difference.
    Yeah we pro rata it up to make it an FTE.

    We kind of point out lower paid employees work circa 35 hours a week, whereas our top end employees can work up to 80 to 100 hours a week at times.

    On the flip side I'm the reason why an ethnic minority employee gets paid more than a white British employee*

    I'm sure Tommy Robinson will be out protesting against soon.

    *Small sample sizes really do distort things.
    Thanks. I assume there are similar problems when trying to look at disability data; especially as some disabilities aren't disclosed to employers. I work in a University and there is a huge discrepancy between the numbers of applicants who disclose a disability to UCAS and the number who subsequently disclose after registration.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,181
    edited March 9
    The question is whether the Democrats will be smart enough to compromise and pick a candidate who can win back PA and the mid-west, even if that means they are not down with the latest and greatest identify politics.

    Or (more likely) will they pick someone from their comfort zone who wins huge majorities in California and the North east and loses everywhere else. Nate Silver reckons there’s a strong chance of Trump repeating his trick from 2016 of losing the popular vote but winning the EC
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463

    TudorRose said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    If you added that much demonstrable value to your employer I’m sure they would pay you as much
    I'm currently undertaking our pay gap review at work.

    Turns out I'm one of the problems, no one has had as many pay reviews/increases as me in the last few years.

    As an aside there's a great scope for manipulating the gender pay gap figures depending on the methodology you use.

    Arithmetic mean, median, or modal salaries really can distort figures.
    Which is presumably why organisations publish mean and median? Are part time workers pro-rata'd? I'd imagine that would make a big difference.
    Yeah we pro rata it up to make it an FTE.

    We kind of point out lower paid employees work circa 35 hours a week, whereas our top end employees can work up to 80 to 100 hours a week at times.

    On the flip side I'm the reason why an ethnic minority employee gets paid more than a white British employee*

    I'm sure Tommy Robinson will be out protesting against us soon.

    *Small sample sizes really do distort things.
    Make your money while you can...
    :smile:
    https://www.geek.com/tech/ai-beats-human-lawyers-at-their-own-game-1732154/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,156
    Elliot said:

    DavidL said:

    On Ojeda the Democrat running for West Virginia.

    He voted for Trump which is the big shock but it is an interesting interview (so far) focuses seem to be the more economic case and the left, talks a lot of things I like.

    Although this is TYT which is Sanders like program so he could just be selling to his base. Regardless I haven't heard him say much I don't like... apart from maybe voting Trump he is impressive in what he says not just a good campaign video.

    Titled A Pro-Trump Progressive Candidate?!
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=rnRbiq1f0iQ

    Edit: Towards the end he mentions he supported Sanders so maybe not just stuff for the benefit of TYT.

    We talk about the gaps between Momentum and the traditional Labour member and between the Brexit loonies and your one nation Conservatives but they are nothing to the chasm between Coastal democrats and those in the flyover. It really doesn't surprise me he voted for Trump. Trump may be a liar and a fraud but at least he was interested enough to lie and deceive about the right things.
    Doug Jones supported universal healthcare, gun regulation and abortion rights yet won Alabama.
    Had he faced an opponent who was not a loon, he would have stood no chance.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,156

    TudorRose said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    If you added that much demonstrable value to your employer I’m sure they would pay you as much
    I'm currently undertaking our pay gap review at work.

    Turns out I'm one of the problems, no one has had as many pay reviews/increases as me in the last few years.

    As an aside there's a great scope for manipulating the gender pay gap figures depending on the methodology you use.

    Arithmetic mean, median, or modal salaries really can distort figures.
    Which is presumably why organisations publish mean and median? Are part time workers pro-rata'd? I'd imagine that would make a big difference.
    Yeah we pro rata it up to make it an FTE.

    We kind of point out lower paid employees work circa 35 hours a week, whereas our top end employees can work up to 80 to 100 hours a week at times.

    On the flip side I'm the reason why an ethnic minority employee gets paid more than a white British employee*

    I'm sure Tommy Robinson will be out protesting against us soon.

    *Small sample sizes really do distort things.
    I think you should offer to take a pay cut, in the interests of equality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544

    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I have a very small amount of money on John Hickenlooper, who fails the "young insurgent" test, but passes the "very silly name" test.

    He's won twice as Governor in a swing state, and has executive experience.

    Why not?

    That's the kind of profile I've been thinking could do well. I think the Dems have made a mistake running with Senators so frequently - it ties them to DC politics too much (yes, Obama won but he had exceptional campaign skills and attributes and was relatively new to Washington - and even he didn't win by all that much).

    Warren will be 71 by the time of the next election, which would set another new record for the oldest-ever first-term president (though would potentially be up against Trump who, at 74, would be seeking to be the oldest person ever elected to the office). It really is time the next generation came through.
    Odds do not favour the Democrats beating Trump, he is a first time President whose party has also had only 1 term in the White House and could steamroller over a younger candidate.

    In fact the last candidate to beat a 1 term President after only 4 years of his party out of the Oval Office was Reagan in 1980 who was 69 and had narrowly lost the 1976 GOP primaries to Ford who then went on to lose narrowly Carter. On that basis Sanders might be the Democrats best bet given his narrow 2016 prinary loss to Hillary and her narrow general election loss to Trump
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Yes at least he comfortably makes the top 1% by talent
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    edited March 9
    Nigelb said:

    And if you're looking for a Demicrat insurgent candidate, Gillibrand might be an interesting punt:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/08/gillibrand-texas-democratic-primary-445454

    Trump beat Gilibrand by 1% in the latest PPP poll.

    By contrast he tied with Warren and lost by 4% to Sanders and 9% to Biden

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrats-lead-8-points-generic-house-ballot-nationally/
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    Blimey.
    I am surprised they don't paywall him, he gets them publicity but that doesn't translate into money (I seem to see his cartoon, for free, almost every day).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    And if you're looking for a Demicrat insurgent candidate, Gillibrand might be an interesting punt:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/08/gillibrand-texas-democratic-primary-445454

    Trump bear Gilibrand by 1% in the latest PPP poll.

    By contrast he tied with Warren and lost by 4% to Sanders and 9% to Biden

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrats-lead-8-points-generic-house-ballot-nationally/
    Which more or less summarises why I think Biden would be the best pick.

    Of course there's plenty of time for things to change, but I'm not seeing the opportunity for a younger contender to establish themselves sufficiently to challenge Trump - and I think Warren or Sanders risk a second term for Trump.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,487

    The question is whether the Democrats will be smart enough to compromise and pick a candidate who can win back PA and the mid-west, even if that means they are not down with the latest and greatest identify politics.

    Or (more likely) will they pick someone from their comfort zone who wins huge majorities in California and the North east and loses everywhere else. Nate Silver reckons there’s a strong chance of Trump repeating his trick from 2016 of losing the popular vote but winning the EC

    Morning all,

    Dems number 1 priority is to find a message/theme. What is it in a few words? We know what Trump's will be: "I'm making America great again, let me finish the job'.

    From a distance, I see no sign that Dems have any idea what theirs will be.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    Blimey.
    I am surprised they don't paywall him, he gets them publicity but that doesn't translate into money (I seem to see his cartoon, for free, almost every day).
    If they did, they lose about half of the daily front page views in very short order.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    Blimey.
    I am surprised they don't paywall him, he gets them publicity but that doesn't translate into money (I seem to see his cartoon, for free, almost every day).
    The Telegraph used to be a decent paper. Now it has Matt. Other than that, we buy the Saturday version to limber up with an easy cryptic crossword, then move onto the Times and the Guardian to test how far our faculties have declined in the past week.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,181

    The question is whether the Democrats will be smart enough to compromise and pick a candidate who can win back PA and the mid-west, even if that means they are not down with the latest and greatest identify politics.

    Or (more likely) will they pick someone from their comfort zone who wins huge majorities in California and the North east and loses everywhere else. Nate Silver reckons there’s a strong chance of Trump repeating his trick from 2016 of losing the popular vote but winning the EC

    Morning all,

    Dems number 1 priority is to find a message/theme. What is it in a few words? We know what Trump's will be: "I'm making America great again, let me finish the job'.

    From a distance, I see no sign that Dems have any idea what theirs will be.
    “Make America Respected Again”
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    If you added that much demonstrable value to your employer I’m sure they would pay you as much
    I'm currently undertaking our pay gap review at work.

    Turns out I'm one of the problems, no one has had as many pay reviews/increases as me in the last few years.

    As an aside there's a great scope for manipulating the gender pay gap figures depending on the methodology you use.

    Arithmetic mean, median, or modal salaries really can distort figures.
    The senior HR folks at my place of work, all women, seem in general frustrated at how poorly the pay gap is actually understood, precisely because it can be distorted and may not indicate what poor reporting thinks.
    It's all about context.

    Whilst there is a gender pay gap in our favour is that

    1) We pay around 5% more than the average sector, and 8% more than the North West average

    2) We have a generous holiday package, 28 days plus stats, and 1 day a year extra for every full year you've served (capped at 10)

    3) Free creche and nursery services

    4) Flexible working

    5) Generous bonus packages

    6) A range of discounts for the staff

    7) Everyone is on above the living wage.

    8) The lower paid staff get a £150 gift card each November.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434
    John_M said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    Worth every penny - and only contemporary cartoonist worth more than a fraction of that amount.
    I don't begrudge him a penny but it does make you wonder if the poverty of the dead tree press is just a little overstated?
    To put that 650k into context and the poverty of the dead trees press.

    Blimey.
    I am surprised they don't paywall him, he gets them publicity but that doesn't translate into money (I seem to see his cartoon, for free, almost every day).
    The Telegraph used to be a decent paper. Now it has Matt. Other than that, we buy the Saturday version to limber up with an easy cryptic crossword, then move onto the Times and the Guardian to test how far our faculties have declined in the past week.
    I get the hard copy, free with a bottle of water, when I fly from the uk. Outrageously they pretend I am buying the paper and getting the water free.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,742

    The question is whether the Democrats will be smart enough to compromise and pick a candidate who can win back PA and the mid-west, even if that means they are not down with the latest and greatest identify politics.

    Or (more likely) will they pick someone from their comfort zone who wins huge majorities in California and the North east and loses everywhere else. Nate Silver reckons there’s a strong chance of Trump repeating his trick from 2016 of losing the popular vote but winning the EC

    Morning all,

    Dems number 1 priority is to find a message/theme. What is it in a few words? We know what Trump's will be: "I'm making America great again, let me finish the job'.

    From a distance, I see no sign that Dems have any idea what theirs will be.
    “Make America Respected Again”
    'Dump the Trump'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,487
    HYUFD said:

    If Sanders does not run Warren is the likeliest nominee in my view, she captures the populist mood of the Democratic base at the moment. However I think Trump would find her easier to beat than Biden and Sanders and early 2020 polling confirms that.

    As Trump will be 74 when he seeks re election I doubt the fact Biden and Sanders are also in their 70s will have much impact. In fact challengers to a sitting President tend to be older experienced hands e.g. Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, Reagan, McGovern, Goldwater etc rather than younger fresher figures likes Kennedy, Carter, Dukakis, W Bush, Obama etc who tend to challenge VPs and/or run after 8 years of the opposition party in the White House. Clinton of course only ran after 12 years of a Republican in the Oval Office

    I've sprinkled a few quid around the Dems market so far. Biden, Kirsten Gillibrand, Warren, Cory Booker, Kamil Harris, Joe Kennedy.

    Not much of a betting strategy at this stage. My latest gut thinking is it will be Biden, but no hard evidence for that really. Very early days.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    The question is whether the Democrats will be smart enough to compromise and pick a candidate who can win back PA and the mid-west, even if that means they are not down with the latest and greatest identify politics.

    Or (more likely) will they pick someone from their comfort zone who wins huge majorities in California and the North east and loses everywhere else. Nate Silver reckons there’s a strong chance of Trump repeating his trick from 2016 of losing the popular vote but winning the EC

    Morning all,

    Dems number 1 priority is to find a message/theme. What is it in a few words? We know what Trump's will be: "I'm making America great again, let me finish the job'.

    From a distance, I see no sign that Dems have any idea what theirs will be.
    “Make America Respected Again”
    'Let's Make Twitter Less Hysterical'.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,820
    Morning all :)

    IF Trump is the President when peace comes to Korea and the North's nuclear threat is removed, he will win re-election whatever the Democrats say or do.

    It's an extraordinary move masterminded by the South Koreans who, after all, have everything to gain and everything to lose. I can't help but feel NK has been offered "something" to come to the table - a relaxation or indeed the ending of sanctions from both the US and China - or some kind of guarantee of support if there were a unilateral attack from the US.

    If President Moon does pull this off, he'll deserve all the plaudits going - his role would be analogous to Carter getting Sadat and Begin together. As for Trump and Kim Jong-Un, both know a place in history awaits - Trump going to meet Jong-Un isn't quite Nixon going to Beijing but it's not far off it and I can only wonder if the relationship between Trump and President Xi has played a part in this as well.

    I wish all parties well - a significant easing of tensions on the Korean Peninsula will help us all.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 726
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    IF Trump is the President when peace comes to Korea and the North's nuclear threat is removed, he will win re-election whatever the Democrats say or do.


    Maybe I underestimate foreign politics in regard to the USA but I would have thought it would have rested on other things, though that would get him a lot of credit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,487
    If Dems win House and Senate, then their slogan will be: "Lock him up!"

    Interestingly, Irwin Sletzer says in this months Standpoint magazine that he thinks the Dems will try to impeach even if they don't gain the Senate.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,949
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    IF Trump is the President when peace comes to Korea and the North's nuclear threat is removed, he will win re-election whatever the Democrats say or do.

    It's an extraordinary move masterminded by the South Koreans who, after all, have everything to gain and everything to lose. I can't help but feel NK has been offered "something" to come to the table - a relaxation or indeed the ending of sanctions from both the US and China - or some kind of guarantee of support if there were a unilateral attack from the US.

    If President Moon does pull this off, he'll deserve all the plaudits going - his role would be analogous to Carter getting Sadat and Begin together. As for Trump and Kim Jong-Un, both know a place in history awaits - Trump going to meet Jong-Un isn't quite Nixon going to Beijing but it's not far off it and I can only wonder if the relationship between Trump and President Xi has played a part in this as well.

    I wish all parties well - a significant easing of tensions on the Korean Peninsula will help us all.

    Don't say it too loudly, and it'll certainlt send the chattering classes into a tither, but what if, what if..

    'Trump was right' (on this)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000

    If Dems win House and Senate, then their slogan will be: "Lock him up!"

    Interestingly, Irwin Sletzer says in this months Standpoint magazine that he thinks the Dems will try to impeach even if they don't gain the Senate.

    I made that point back in January.

    The Democrats might not have the votes to convict but politically it might be helpful for them if the GOP vote to clear Trump.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/01/07/betting-on-the-year-of-trumps-impeachment/
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,653
    Not sure. I think decent content more essential for a newspaper. The question is how you monetise it.

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    F1: the McLaren has broken down again. Leaking oil, apparently.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    FF43 said:

    Not sure. I think decent content more essential for a newspaper. The question is how you monetise it.

    Well.....for once I'd say an astronomical salary was earned....

    The Times have managed it with their paywall.

    The trick is to have comprehensive coverage written by people who know what they are talking about.

    Last summer The Sunday Telegraph wrote on their front page about a stalking horse challenge to topple Mrs May and that many MPs were backing it.

    Under the Tory rules since 1997 there's no longer an option of a stalking horse challenge, it is a simple vote of confidence.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,000
    edited March 9

    F1: the McLaren has broken down again. Leaking oil, apparently.

    You should get yourself to Meadowhall.

    There's a Mercedes F1 shop opened there.

    You can buy merchandise, and for free you can also sit in an actual F1 car and drive it.*

    *Well it is hooked up to a screen and you can drive it at several circuits by moving the steering wheel and the pedals.

    It is fun.
This discussion has been closed.