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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day and Corbyn’s detachment on Brexit from the vast ma

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day and Corbyn’s detachment on Brexit from the vast majority of LAB voters seems amazing

WATCH: #Brexit must stop immigrants being used to undercut wages, @jeremycorbyn tells Scottish Labour conference #ScotLab18

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,076
    edited March 9
    1st like Labour Leave in the 'having your cake and eating it' department at the Brexit referendum.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    2
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,378
    Amazing, perhaps, but his tactics seem to be working reasonably.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470
    Why is it surprising
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited March 9
    Tim hasn't lost his edge.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470
    edited March 9
    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    Public opinion won't solve the Irish border question...
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    Why should leave need assistance?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    Public opinion won't solve the Irish border question...
    The UK will not be blackmailed much as you hope it will
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,478

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Agreed. That's why I put his Tweet in the header.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    Why should leave need assistance?
    There is a co-ordinated action by those in the EU and some in the UK to stop Brexit.

    Public opinion is important to support Brexit against the media and establishments narrative
  • HistorianHistorian Posts: 23
    I really think this article mises the point, and is yet more remoaner propaganda on this website.

    (Why are those Labour supporters who think we were right to leave painted blue?)

    The point is that regardless of whether Labour voters or anyone else think that Britain was right or wrong to leave the EU, the UK DID vote that way, and most democrats -and I am sure most Labour voters are democrats -will accept that decision regardless of personal feelings.

    Also one cannot have hindsight on leaving the EU because we have not yet left and experience the consequences of doing so.

    I have little time for Corbyn, and we all know that he has been a lifelong Brexiteer, but at least he accepts the result of the referendum -and he knows perfectly well that certain EU rules and regulations would make it very difficult for him to nationalise the railways and water industry.

    Most Labour MPs also represent constituencies who voted Leave.

    I think the constant drip drip of remoaning enemies of democracy is tiresome.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 918
    Mike, I don't necessarily share your implied view that there is more downside than upside to this. My guess is that Labour voters aren't going anywhere else while the Tories are in government - but that there may be mileage in winning over some of the WWC vote which no longer thinks that Labour talks to it - the Mansfields, the Stokes, the Nuneatons, the Swindons and so on.

    Basically, Labour needs to do more than appeal to the people that already vote L:abour.

    This is just my reading and I'd be interested in other analyses.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    Why should leave need assistance?
    There is a co-ordinated action by those in the EU and some in the UK to stop Brexit.

    Public opinion is important to support Brexit against the media and establishments narrative
    Assume 70% support for Brexit. Where will the Irish customs border be? It doesn't become any easier to solve just because more people get behind Brexit.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 602
    Historian said:

    I really think this article mises the point, and is yet more remoaner propaganda on this website.

    (Why are those Labour supporters who think we were right to leave painted blue?)

    The point is that regardless of whether Labour voters or anyone else think that Britain was right or wrong to leave the EU, the UK DID vote that way, and most democrats -and I am sure most Labour voters are democrats -will accept that decision regardless of personal feelings.

    Also one cannot have hindsight on leaving the EU because we have not yet left and experience the consequences of doing so.

    I have little time for Corbyn, and we all know that he has been a lifelong Brexiteer, but at least he accepts the result of the referendum -and he knows perfectly well that certain EU rules and regulations would make it very difficult for him to nationalise the railways and water industry.

    Most Labour MPs also represent constituencies who voted Leave.

    I think the constant drip drip of remoaning enemies of democracy is tiresome.

    Cue Mr Smithson inviting you to post on another site, again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    Why should leave need assistance?
    There is a co-ordinated action by those in the EU and some in the UK to stop Brexit.

    Public opinion is important to support Brexit against the media and establishments narrative
    Assume 70% support for Brexit. Where will the Irish customs border be? It doesn't become any easier to solve just because more people get behind Brexit.
    It will be solved - we are leaving and if no deal, so be it.

    Would you like to explain to the South Wales steelworkers and their families why their futures could be damaged by unelected Eurocrats in Brussels
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,089
    Its because his customs union announcement bombed.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470
    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    Why should leave need assistance?
    There is a co-ordinated action by those in the EU and some in the UK to stop Brexit.

    Public opinion is important to support Brexit against the media and establishments narrative
    Assume 70% support for Brexit. Where will the Irish customs border be? It doesn't become any easier to solve just because more people get behind Brexit.
    It will be solved - we are leaving and if no deal, so be it.

    Would you like to explain to the South Wales steelworkers and their families why their futures could be damaged by unelected Eurocrats in Brussels
    If we leave with no deal the Irish border issue will clearly not have been solved!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    You would think some people are surprised at finding that Corbyn is Brexit's bezzy mate. Muppets.

    Theresa May is very fortunate in who she is facing. Jeremy's public face of yeah-but-no-but-yeah approach to Brexit has left Labour looking idiotic on the biggest political story since WW2.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061

    You would think some people are surprised at finding that Corbyn is Brexit's bezzy mate. Muppets.

    Theresa May is very fortunate in who she is facing. Jeremy's public face of yeah-but-no-but-yeah approach to Brexit has left Labour looking idiotic on the biggest political story since WW2.

    Maybe she should call a general election while she's facing an idiotic opposition? :smile:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,324
    There's an interesting interview in the Guardian with Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8qks5xx

    Two bits stood out to me. Firstly:

    He says the government has done well to get the deficit under control, but thinks the pips are now starting to squeak. “If you look at the period up to 2013/14, spending came down without big political consequences or things falling apart. But, in a whole range of areas, that is no longer true. If you look at what’s happening in prisons it’s just disastrous. Local government until 2014 was coping fine. It really isn’t any more. Clearly, the health service is struggling in a way that, three or four years ago, it wasn’t. So it feels as if we’ve got to the crunch point. We’re really beginning to feel the cost.”

    It's interesting to hear him talking about things other than the balance sheet. I certainly think he has a point about prisons and local government. I'm not so sure about health - but it doesn't help that the Left will always tell us it's in crisis when the Tories are in power.

    Secondly:

    He says both of the main political parties are living in a fantasy world. “On the one side you have a party saying you can have all the welfare state we’ve ever had and pay no more tax, which isn’t true. And on the other side, you’ve got them saying we can levy more tax and it’ll be somebody else who pays because it’ll come off companies and the rich, which also isn’t true. Labour’s election manifesto had an awful lot of overestimates about what you can get from companies and the very rich, and didn’t fully balance out. You can’t have European standards of welfare with American-style tax levels. You have to make a choice.”

    There was a lot of scepticism on here about Labour's manifesto being costed. And Johnson confirms that the scepticism was well founded.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    Why should leave need assistance?
    There is a co-ordinated action by those in the EU and some in the UK to stop Brexit.

    Public opinion is important to support Brexit against the media and establishments narrative
    Assume 70% support for Brexit. Where will the Irish customs border be? It doesn't become any easier to solve just because more people get behind Brexit.
    It will be solved - we are leaving and if no deal, so be it.

    Would you like to explain to the South Wales steelworkers and their families why their futures could be damaged by unelected Eurocrats in Brussels
    If we leave with no deal the Irish border issue will clearly not have been solved!
    It then becomes an EU Irish problem
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611

    You would think some people are surprised at finding that Corbyn is Brexit's bezzy mate. Muppets.

    Theresa May is very fortunate in who she is facing. Jeremy's public face of yeah-but-no-but-yeah approach to Brexit has left Labour looking idiotic on the biggest political story since WW2.

    Maybe she should call a general election while she's facing an idiotic opposition? :smile:
    Let Labour tear itself apart over Brexit a bit more first, eh?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    Of course, because that's a story.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    tlg86 said:

    There's an interesting interview in the Guardian with Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8qks5xx

    Two bits stood out to me. Firstly:

    He says the government has done well to get the deficit under control, but thinks the pips are now starting to squeak. “If you look at the period up to 2013/14, spending came down without big political consequences or things falling apart. But, in a whole range of areas, that is no longer true. If you look at what’s happening in prisons it’s just disastrous. Local government until 2014 was coping fine. It really isn’t any more. Clearly, the health service is struggling in a way that, three or four years ago, it wasn’t. So it feels as if we’ve got to the crunch point. We’re really beginning to feel the cost.”

    It's interesting to hear him talking about things other than the balance sheet. I certainly think he has a point about prisons and local government. I'm not so sure about health - but it doesn't help that the Left will always tell us it's in crisis when the Tories are in power.

    Secondly:

    He says both of the main political parties are living in a fantasy world. “On the one side you have a party saying you can have all the welfare state we’ve ever had and pay no more tax, which isn’t true. And on the other side, you’ve got them saying we can levy more tax and it’ll be somebody else who pays because it’ll come off companies and the rich, which also isn’t true. Labour’s election manifesto had an awful lot of overestimates about what you can get from companies and the very rich, and didn’t fully balance out. You can’t have European standards of welfare with American-style tax levels. You have to make a choice.”

    There was a lot of scepticism on here about Labour's manifesto being costed. And Johnson confirms that the scepticism was well founded.

    All Paul Johnson has 'confirmed' is that he too is sceptical of Labour's costings. He thinks they over-estimated what you can get from companies and the very rich, but that's just his estimate against theirs.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061

    You would think some people are surprised at finding that Corbyn is Brexit's bezzy mate. Muppets.

    Theresa May is very fortunate in who she is facing. Jeremy's public face of yeah-but-no-but-yeah approach to Brexit has left Labour looking idiotic on the biggest political story since WW2.

    Maybe she should call a general election while she's facing an idiotic opposition? :smile:
    Let Labour tear itself apart over Brexit a bit more first, eh?
    While the Tories of course are in complete harmony over Brexit?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470

    tlg86 said:

    There's an interesting interview in the Guardian with Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8qks5xx

    Two bits stood out to me. Firstly:

    He says the government has done well to get the deficit under control, but thinks the pips are now starting to squeak. “If you look at the period up to 2013/14, spending came down without big political consequences or things falling apart. But, in a whole range of areas, that is no longer true. If you look at what’s happening in prisons it’s just disastrous. Local government until 2014 was coping fine. It really isn’t any more. Clearly, the health service is struggling in a way that, three or four years ago, it wasn’t. So it feels as if we’ve got to the crunch point. We’re really beginning to feel the cost.”

    It's interesting to hear him talking about things other than the balance sheet. I certainly think he has a point about prisons and local government. I'm not so sure about health - but it doesn't help that the Left will always tell us it's in crisis when the Tories are in power.

    Secondly:

    He says both of the main political parties are living in a fantasy world. “On the one side you have a party saying you can have all the welfare state we’ve ever had and pay no more tax, which isn’t true. And on the other side, you’ve got them saying we can levy more tax and it’ll be somebody else who pays because it’ll come off companies and the rich, which also isn’t true. Labour’s election manifesto had an awful lot of overestimates about what you can get from companies and the very rich, and didn’t fully balance out. You can’t have European standards of welfare with American-style tax levels. You have to make a choice.”

    There was a lot of scepticism on here about Labour's manifesto being costed. And Johnson confirms that the scepticism was well founded.

    All Paul Johnson has 'confirmed' is that he too is sceptical of Labour's costings. He thinks they over-estimated what you can get from companies and the very rich, but that's just his estimate against theirs.
    The IFS has taken chunks out of the government and labour fondly quote it but try to reject their findings when the shoe is on the other foot
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,633

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    Why should leave need assistance?
    There is a co-ordinated action by those in the EU and some in the UK to stop Brexit.

    Public opinion is important to support Brexit against the media and establishments narrative
    Assume 70% support for Brexit. Where will the Irish customs border be? It doesn't become any easier to solve just because more people get behind Brexit.
    It will be solved - we are leaving and if no deal, so be it.

    Would you like to explain to the South Wales steelworkers and their families why their futures could be damaged by unelected Eurocrats in Brussels
    If we leave with no deal the Irish border issue will clearly not have been solved!
    It might not be popular with many but seemingly there will then be a border and it will be up to the UK and the EU to determine how (whether) it is policed on their side of it. That's a solution.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    edited March 9

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,324

    tlg86 said:

    There's an interesting interview in the Guardian with Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8qks5xx

    Two bits stood out to me. Firstly:

    He says the government has done well to get the deficit under control, but thinks the pips are now starting to squeak. “If you look at the period up to 2013/14, spending came down without big political consequences or things falling apart. But, in a whole range of areas, that is no longer true. If you look at what’s happening in prisons it’s just disastrous. Local government until 2014 was coping fine. It really isn’t any more. Clearly, the health service is struggling in a way that, three or four years ago, it wasn’t. So it feels as if we’ve got to the crunch point. We’re really beginning to feel the cost.”

    It's interesting to hear him talking about things other than the balance sheet. I certainly think he has a point about prisons and local government. I'm not so sure about health - but it doesn't help that the Left will always tell us it's in crisis when the Tories are in power.

    Secondly:

    He says both of the main political parties are living in a fantasy world. “On the one side you have a party saying you can have all the welfare state we’ve ever had and pay no more tax, which isn’t true. And on the other side, you’ve got them saying we can levy more tax and it’ll be somebody else who pays because it’ll come off companies and the rich, which also isn’t true. Labour’s election manifesto had an awful lot of overestimates about what you can get from companies and the very rich, and didn’t fully balance out. You can’t have European standards of welfare with American-style tax levels. You have to make a choice.”

    There was a lot of scepticism on here about Labour's manifesto being costed. And Johnson confirms that the scepticism was well founded.

    All Paul Johnson has 'confirmed' is that he too is sceptical of Labour's costings. He thinks they over-estimated what you can get from companies and the very rich, but that's just his estimate against theirs.
    Perhaps, but the point is, when Labour says its manifesto is costed, what they mean is, they found someone who would say it was. As the head of the IFS, I'd suggest Johnson's opinion is worth listening to. And he thinks the Tories are going to have to get honest with the people in the not too distant future. Bottom line is, we're all going to have to pay more in tax in the future.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,098

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades...

    ...Would you like to explain to the South Wales steelworkers and their families why their futures could be damaged by unelected Eurocrats in Brussels


    We are still thinking that "Leave" is one of two options instead of what is scheduled to happen at 11pm on March 29 2019 or near enough. "Leave" no longer needs assistance or deprecation, since it is happening. If the denial of differential tariffs you describe happens - and it might well do - then the people doing the explaining will be May's administration. I suspect the explanation will be something along the lines of "the EU is bad, but what can we do eh?" Which will be cold comfort.

    This is (one of) the reasons I deprecate "failing and blaming" so much: it legitimises failure.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,633

    You would think some people are surprised at finding that Corbyn is Brexit's bezzy mate. Muppets.

    Theresa May is very fortunate in who she is facing. Jeremy's public face of yeah-but-no-but-yeah approach to Brexit has left Labour looking idiotic on the biggest political story since WW2.

    you left off a "but"
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    There's an interesting interview in the Guardian with Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8qks5xx

    Two bits stood out to me. Firstly:

    He says the government has done well to get the deficit under control, but thinks the pips are now starting to squeak. “If you look at the period up to 2013/14, spending came down without big political consequences or things falling apart. But, in a whole range of areas, that is no longer true. If you look at what’s happening in prisons it’s just disastrous. Local government until 2014 was coping fine. It really isn’t any more. Clearly, the health service is struggling in a way that, three or four years ago, it wasn’t. So it feels as if we’ve got to the crunch point. We’re really beginning to feel the cost.”

    It's interesting to hear him talking about things other than the balance sheet. I certainly think he has a point about prisons and local government. I'm not so sure about health - but it doesn't help that the Left will always tell us it's in crisis when the Tories are in power.

    Secondly:

    He says both of the main political parties are living in a fantasy world. “On the one side you have a party saying you can have all the welfare state we’ve ever had and pay no more tax, which isn’t true. And on the other side, you’ve got them saying we can levy more tax and it’ll be somebody else who pays because it’ll come off companies and the rich, which also isn’t true. Labour’s election manifesto had an awful lot of overestimates about what you can get from companies and the very rich, and didn’t fully balance out. You can’t have European standards of welfare with American-style tax levels. You have to make a choice.”

    There was a lot of scepticism on here about Labour's manifesto being costed. And Johnson confirms that the scepticism was well founded.

    All Paul Johnson has 'confirmed' is that he too is sceptical of Labour's costings. He thinks they over-estimated what you can get from companies and the very rich, but that's just his estimate against theirs.
    Perhaps, but the point is, when Labour says its manifesto is costed, what they mean is, they found someone who would say it was. As the head of the IFS, I'd suggest Johnson's opinion is worth listening to. And he thinks the Tories are going to have to get honest with the people in the not too distant future. Bottom line is, we're all going to have to pay more in tax in the future.
    On that point I do agree! And thanks goodness that's gradually becoming more widely accepted.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    So what? We get so furious we might vote to leave it?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,633

    tlg86 said:

    There's an interesting interview in the Guardian with Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8qks5xx

    Two bits stood out to me. Firstly:

    He says the government has done well to get the deficit under control, but thinks the pips are now starting to squeak. “If you look at the period up to 2013/14, spending came down without big political consequences or things falling apart. But, in a whole range of areas, that is no longer true. If you look at what’s happening in prisons it’s just disastrous. Local government until 2014 was coping fine. It really isn’t any more. Clearly, the health service is struggling in a way that, three or four years ago, it wasn’t. So it feels as if we’ve got to the crunch point. We’re really beginning to feel the cost.”

    It's interesting to hear him talking about things other than the balance sheet. I certainly think he has a point about prisons and local government. I'm not so sure about health - but it doesn't help that the Left will always tell us it's in crisis when the Tories are in power.

    Secondly:

    He says both of the main political parties are living in a fantasy world. “On the one side you have a party saying you can have all the welfare state we’ve ever had and pay no more tax, which isn’t true. And on the other side, you’ve got them saying we can levy more tax and it’ll be somebody else who pays because it’ll come off companies and the rich, which also isn’t true. Labour’s election manifesto had an awful lot of overestimates about what you can get from companies and the very rich, and didn’t fully balance out. You can’t have European standards of welfare with American-style tax levels. You have to make a choice.”

    There was a lot of scepticism on here about Labour's manifesto being costed. And Johnson confirms that the scepticism was well founded.

    All Paul Johnson has 'confirmed' is that he too is sceptical of Labour's costings. He thinks they over-estimated what you can get from companies and the very rich, but that's just his estimate against theirs.
    And who is more credible, less prejudiced?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,243
    I'm still stumped as to why people are making such a huge deal over the Irish border. Switzerland shares a border with three EU countries and it's not in the customs union. If it can be done in Switzerland it can be done on Ireland.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    So what? We get so furious we might vote to leave it?
    Strengthens the government resolve to get a deal and not capitulate to those who want Brexit stopped. It is a big story in Wales tonight
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,402

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    True. But chances are in this circumstance: outside the EU we would be seen as A list allies, so exempt. Inside: hmm you’re lumped in with the rest of them who don’t spend 2% supporting NATO and have a huge trade imbalance with the US ( yes that’s you Mercedes), so we’d like to exempt you but tough, we can’t sadly.

    Meanwhile unelected EU commissioners, who we can’t fire, are plotting revenge against one of our biggest markets, who in other circumstances would have no problem with us.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611

    You would think some people are surprised at finding that Corbyn is Brexit's bezzy mate. Muppets.

    Theresa May is very fortunate in who she is facing. Jeremy's public face of yeah-but-no-but-yeah approach to Brexit has left Labour looking idiotic on the biggest political story since WW2.

    Maybe she should call a general election while she's facing an idiotic opposition? :smile:
    Let Labour tear itself apart over Brexit a bit more first, eh?
    While the Tories of course are in complete harmony over Brexit?
    Getting there. This past week has seen a considerable closing of ranks.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens
    As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

    I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,633
    MaxPB said:

    I'm still stumped as to why people are making such a huge deal over the Irish border. Switzerland shares a border with three EU countries and it's not in the customs union. If it can be done in Switzerland it can be done on Ireland.

    Quite
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470
    MaxPB said:

    I'm still stumped as to why people are making such a huge deal over the Irish border. Switzerland shares a border with three EU countries and it's not in the customs union. If it can be done in Switzerland it can be done on Ireland.

    The EU, Ireland and those wanting to stop Brexit are attempting to blackmail the UK over it

    Of course there is an answer with good will but the EU does not do good will at present
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,885

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 763
    Odd that a Labour leader would actually be interested in promoting the interests of the British working classes by taking steps to address factors which have driven down wages in real terms. Still the chattering remain London classes enjoy the cheap labour - so why should they support it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Yes.

    And he STILL owes me a gold sovereign, from his losing bet in 2015.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061

    tlg86 said:

    There's an interesting interview in the Guardian with Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8qks5xx

    Two bits stood out to me. Firstly:

    He says the government has done well to get the deficit under control, but thinks the pips are now starting to squeak. “If you look at the period up to 2013/14, spending came down without big political consequences or things falling apart. But, in a whole range of areas, that is no longer true. If you look at what’s happening in prisons it’s just disastrous. Local government until 2014 was coping fine. It really isn’t any more. Clearly, the health service is struggling in a way that, three or four years ago, it wasn’t. So it feels as if we’ve got to the crunch point. We’re really beginning to feel the cost.”

    It's interesting to hear him talking about things other than the balance sheet. I certainly think he has a point about prisons and local government. I'm not so sure about health - but it doesn't help that the Left will always tell us it's in crisis when the Tories are in power.

    Secondly:

    He says both of the main political parties are living in a fantasy world. “On the one side you have a party saying you can have all the welfare state we’ve ever had and pay no more tax, which isn’t true. And on the other side, you’ve got them saying we can levy more tax and it’ll be somebody else who pays because it’ll come off companies and the rich, which also isn’t true. Labour’s election manifesto had an awful lot of overestimates about what you can get from companies and the very rich, and didn’t fully balance out. You can’t have European standards of welfare with American-style tax levels. You have to make a choice.”

    There was a lot of scepticism on here about Labour's manifesto being costed. And Johnson confirms that the scepticism was well founded.

    All Paul Johnson has 'confirmed' is that he too is sceptical of Labour's costings. He thinks they over-estimated what you can get from companies and the very rich, but that's just his estimate against theirs.
    And who is more credible, less prejudiced?
    No doubt the voters will decide at the next GE :smile:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens
    As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

    I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?
    The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    Corbyn has thrown a few scraps to Remainers by promising to remain in a Customs Union while still ending free movement to keep Labour Leave seats and target Tory Leave marginals and leave the Single Market so he can implement the nationalisations he wants
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Tim who?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,402
    MaxPB said:

    I'm still stumped as to why people are making such a huge deal over the Irish border. Switzerland shares a border with three EU countries and it's not in the customs union. If it can be done in Switzerland it can be done on Ireland.

    Quite. They ( including the Irish and especially Varadkar) are making a big deal because they want to. It’s not seamless now. You can’t by cigarettes in Newry retail and sell them in Dundalk, as it is.

    It’s a stick to attempt to beat us with, to try and stop us diverging, which is the EU’s obvious worry.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    welshowl said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    True. But chances are in this circumstance: outside the EU we would be seen as A list allies, so exempt. Inside: hmm you’re lumped in with the rest of them who don’t spend 2% supporting NATO and have a huge trade imbalance with the US ( yes that’s you Mercedes), so we’d like to exempt you but tough, we can’t sadly.

    Meanwhile unelected EU commissioners, who we can’t fire, are plotting revenge against one of our biggest markets, who in other circumstances would have no problem with us.
    One of the positives about Corbyns Brexit policy is that it does not mean sucking up to bullies like Trump. It is about having the ability to protect our industries, such as Welsh steel. Far better a Corbyns Brexit than a Hannanite one.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,156
    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Yes.

    I don't see what lies Jeremy Corbyn told to his supporters about the EU. He spent 30 years voting against it. If anyone has projected their europhile views on to him, the fault lies with them, not him.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens
    As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

    I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?
    The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales
    You've fallen for Gavin Williamson's latest scheme to make a name for himself...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5770199/gavin-williamson-donald-trump-steel-tariff/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470
    Foxy said:

    welshowl said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    True. But chances are in this circumstance: outside the EU we would be seen as A list allies, so exempt. Inside: hmm you’re lumped in with the rest of them who don’t spend 2% supporting NATO and have a huge trade imbalance with the US ( yes that’s you Mercedes), so we’d like to exempt you but tough, we can’t sadly.

    Meanwhile unelected EU commissioners, who we can’t fire, are plotting revenge against one of our biggest markets, who in other circumstances would have no problem with us.
    One of the positives about Corbyns Brexit policy is that it does not mean sucking up to bullies like Trump. It is about having the ability to protect our industries, such as Welsh steel. Far better a Corbyns Brexit than a Hannanite one.
    How would Corbyn protect Welsh steel
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,633

    tlg86 said:

    There's an interesting interview in the Guardian with Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8qks5xx

    Two bits stood out to me. Firstly:

    He says the government has done well to get the deficit under control, but thinks the pips are now starting to squeak. “If you look at the period up to 2013/14, spending came down without big political consequences or things falling apart. But, in a whole range of areas, that is no longer true. If you look at what’s happening in prisons it’s just disastrous. Local government until 2014 was coping fine. It really isn’t any more. Clearly, the health service is struggling in a way that, three or four years ago, it wasn’t. So it feels as if we’ve got to the crunch point. We’re really beginning to feel the cost.”

    It's interesting to hear him talking about things other than the balance sheet. I certainly think he has a point about prisons and local government. I'm not so sure about health - but it doesn't help that the Left will always tell us it's in crisis when the Tories are in power.

    Secondly:

    He says both of the main political parties are living in a fantasy world. “On the one side you have a party saying you can have all the welfare state we’ve ever had and pay no more tax, which isn’t true. And on the other side, you’ve got them saying we can levy more tax and it’ll be somebody else who pays because it’ll come off companies and the rich, which also isn’t true. Labour’s election manifesto had an awful lot of overestimates about what you can get from companies and the very rich, and didn’t fully balance out. You can’t have European standards of welfare with American-style tax levels. You have to make a choice.”

    There was a lot of scepticism on here about Labour's manifesto being costed. And Johnson confirms that the scepticism was well founded.

    All Paul Johnson has 'confirmed' is that he too is sceptical of Labour's costings. He thinks they over-estimated what you can get from companies and the very rich, but that's just his estimate against theirs.
    And who is more credible, less prejudiced?
    No doubt the voters will decide at the next GE :smile:
    Is the IFS putting up candidates?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    welshowl said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm still stumped as to why people are making such a huge deal over the Irish border. Switzerland shares a border with three EU countries and it's not in the customs union. If it can be done in Switzerland it can be done on Ireland.

    Quite. They ( including the Irish and especially Varadkar) are making a big deal because they want to. It’s not seamless now. You can’t by cigarettes in Newry retail and sell them in Dundalk, as it is.

    It’s a stick to attempt to beat us with, to try and stop us diverging, which is the EU’s obvious worry.
    Why has the UK government agreed to no infrastructure and no checks and why are Brexiteers no up in arms about it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    Foxy said:

    welshowl said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    True. But chances are in this circumstance: outside the EU we would be seen as A list allies, so exempt. Inside: hmm you’re lumped in with the rest of them who don’t spend 2% supporting NATO and have a huge trade imbalance with the US ( yes that’s you Mercedes), so we’d like to exempt you but tough, we can’t sadly.

    Meanwhile unelected EU commissioners, who we can’t fire, are plotting revenge against one of our biggest markets, who in other circumstances would have no problem with us.
    One of the positives about Corbyns Brexit policy is that it does not mean sucking up to bullies like Trump.
    Instead, you suck up to the Bullies of Brussels.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,814

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    Why should leave need assistance?
    There is a co-ordinated action by those in the EU and some in the UK to stop Brexit.

    Public opinion is important to support Brexit against the media and establishments narrative
    Assume 70% support for Brexit. Where will the Irish customs border be? It doesn't become any easier to solve just because more people get behind Brexit.
    It is easy. The Irish customs border will be on the border between the Republic and Northern Island. The practical consequences for individuals and businesses are less easy to ascertain.

    The potential consequences for Northern Island in respect of the UK are massively exaggerated IMO. The balance of opinion on the mainland strongly supports the North remaining as part of the UK if that is their democratic wish. However should that democratic wish shift, then I don't think that there is, or would be, much concern either way. (Incentally I suspect their is much more emotional attachment to Scotland - and/or there is a feeling that Scotland is more dependent on being part of the UK than NI so more of a feeling that they would have taken a bad decision).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens
    As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

    I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?
    The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales
    You've fallen for Gavin Williamson's latest scheme to make a name for himself...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5770199/gavin-williamson-donald-trump-steel-tariff/
    You have no answer for the Welsh steelworkers
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens
    As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

    I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?
    I agree. It's (from the UK perspective) a storm in a teacup. Our total steel exports to the US (of all types) amounts to £360m odd, which is ~0.3% of our total exports to the USA, and ~0.06% of our total exports.

    What's more worrying is that it derails the free trade narrative that Fox keeps peddling (which is odd, given the UK's economy is service based, and extant FTAs don't generally address services in anything more than a rudimentary manner).

    In terms of NI border, we should have assumed WTO and started digging ditches and building lorry parks 18 months ago. It may not be soluble, as it's clearly a political, rather than a logistical issue.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    edited March 9

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.



    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens
    As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

    I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?
    The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales
    FFS! The EU is not threatening UK steelworkers jobs! If there is any threat it comes from Trump!

    Say we took the preferential 'offer' that Trump may or may not make. That would put us on the US side of a tariff border with the EU. We export 6% of our steel to the US but 13% to France, 12% to Germany, 9% to Ireland, 8% to the Netherlands and no doubt another sizeable chunk to the rest of the EU.

    Leaving the single market is going to have a far worse impact on our steel exports than anything Trump is cooking up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,378

    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Tim who?
    A former stalwart of PB.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,633

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens
    As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

    I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?
    The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales
    I think you can substitute "UK" for "Wales" for all qualifying, reasonable people.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,402
    Foxy said:

    welshowl said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    True. But chances are in this circumstance: outside the EU we would be seen as A list allies, so exempt. Inside: hmm you’re lumped in with the rest of them who don’t spend 2% supporting NATO and have a huge trade imbalance with the US ( yes that’s you Mercedes), so we’d like to exempt you but tough, we can’t sadly.

    Meanwhile unelected EU commissioners, who we can’t fire, are plotting revenge against one of our biggest markets, who in other circumstances would have no problem with us.
    One of the positives about Corbyns Brexit policy is that it does not mean sucking up to bullies like Trump. It is about having the ability to protect our industries, such as Welsh steel. Far better a Corbyns Brexit than a Hannanite one.
    I take your point, and it’s better than other alternatives for sure, but it still involves putting a wall around us and about 7% of the world, to the exclusion of the other 93%. The 93% is going to define the 21st century. Better to get involved, than clinging to the 21st century Austria Hungarian empire. In my view at the least. Others may differ.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 13,470

    welshowl said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm still stumped as to why people are making such a huge deal over the Irish border. Switzerland shares a border with three EU countries and it's not in the customs union. If it can be done in Switzerland it can be done on Ireland.

    Quite. They ( including the Irish and especially Varadkar) are making a big deal because they want to. It’s not seamless now. You can’t by cigarettes in Newry retail and sell them in Dundalk, as it is.

    It’s a stick to attempt to beat us with, to try and stop us diverging, which is the EU’s obvious worry.
    Why has the UK government agreed to no infrastructure and no checks and why are Brexiteers no up in arms about it?
    The leavers simply will not be drawn into blackmail
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,717
    edited March 9

    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Tim who?
    Shut up, you're making me feel old and feel guilty about how many years of my life I've wasted on this site. All in six letters and a punctuation mark? You utter bar steward.

    My only consolation is how many more years than me some of the old-timers have been here, and that my post-count remains under 10,000. (Though it isn't counting all those vanished comments from the Disqus Era. Nor the whatever-it-was-that-we-had-for-all-those-years-before-Disqus.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061

    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Tim who?
    Shut up, you're making me feel old and feel guilty about how many years of my life I've wasted on this site. All in six letters and a punctuation mark? You utter bar steward.
    Your welcome! :smile:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485

    welshowl said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm still stumped as to why people are making such a huge deal over the Irish border. Switzerland shares a border with three EU countries and it's not in the customs union. If it can be done in Switzerland it can be done on Ireland.

    Quite. They ( including the Irish and especially Varadkar) are making a big deal because they want to. It’s not seamless now. You can’t by cigarettes in Newry retail and sell them in Dundalk, as it is.

    It’s a stick to attempt to beat us with, to try and stop us diverging, which is the EU’s obvious worry.
    Why has the UK government agreed to no infrastructure and no checks and why are Brexiteers no up in arms about it?
    The leavers simply will not be drawn into blackmail
    I wonder if that emotion could be harnessed by convincing them the EU is trying to kick us out... ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,156
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Tim who?
    A former stalwart of PB.
    Highly intelligent but a real piece of work.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,402

    welshowl said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm still stumped as to why people are making such a huge deal over the Irish border. Switzerland shares a border with three EU countries and it's not in the customs union. If it can be done in Switzerland it can be done on Ireland.

    Quite. They ( including the Irish and especially Varadkar) are making a big deal because they want to. It’s not seamless now. You can’t by cigarettes in Newry retail and sell them in Dundalk, as it is.

    It’s a stick to attempt to beat us with, to try and stop us diverging, which is the EU’s obvious worry.
    Why has the UK government agreed to no infrastructure and no checks and why are Brexiteers no up in arms about it?
    You have this faith that Ireland will stop Brexit?

    It won’t, when push comes to shove.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,098
    edited March 9

    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption.

    That's an awkward threshold. What's his criteria for "contribute to NATO"?

    I don't know if you know this but a lot of UK defence planning is up in the air at the moment: the 2015 Spending Review expanded defence spending (yay) but the 2015 SDSR overcommitted (boo) so there was the 2017 National Security Capability Review (NSCR) which floated an absolute shitload of cuts/mergers (boo), so Gavin Williamson went postal (yay!) and the defence stuff is separated out into the 2018 Modernising Defence Programme (MDP) so might be preserved (yay) or might not (boo), nobody knows what's happening and stuff is still being sold off (so bye-bye HMS Ocean).


    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/555607/2015_Strategic_Defence_and_Security_Review.pdf
    https://rusi.org/publication/whitehall-reports/decision-time-national-security-capability-review-2017–2018
    https://rusi.org/commentary/uk-modernising-defence-programme-‘get-programme’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/12/pm-warned-tory-revolt-horrific-defence-cuts/
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defence_and_Security_Review_2015

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,243
    John_M said:

    I agree. It's (from the UK perspective) a storm in a teacup. Our total steel exports to the US (of all types) amounts to £360m odd, which is ~0.3% of our total exports to the USA, and ~0.06% of our total exports.

    What's more worrying is that it derails the free trade narrative that Fox keeps peddling (which is odd, given the UK's economy is service based, and extant FTAs don't generally address services in anything more than a rudimentary manner).

    In terms of NI border, we should have assumed WTO and started digging ditches and building lorry parks 18 months ago. It may not be soluble, as it's clearly a political, rather than a logistical issue.

    Switzerland manages without those, and it has borders with Germany, France, Italy and Austria. If it can be done in Switzerland, a nation which exports a lot more in terms of its GDP than Ireland or the UK, then it can be done at the Irish border.

    As I said, I'm genuinely confused as to why this has turned into such a big deal. There will be no travel restrictions, which is people's biggest fear and the UK can unilaterally allow Irish citizens the right to resettle in the UK and vice versa, just as Ireland does now for anyone born in NI.

    A customs border really isn't a big deal, definitely not as big a deal as is being made out at the moment. If a real border crossing was being suggested then I could understand the issues, but no one has suggested that Ireland will leave the CTA, have they?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,633

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.



    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens
    As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

    I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?
    The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales
    FFS! The EU is not threatening UK steelworkers jobs! If there is any threat it comes from Trump!

    Say we took the preferential 'offer' that Trump may or may not make. That would put us on the US side of a tariff border with the EU. We export 6% of our steel to the US but 13% to France, 12% to Germany, 9% to Ireland, 8% to the Netherlands and no doubt another sizeable chunk to the rest of the EU.

    Leaving the single market is going to have a far worse impact on our steel exports than anything Trump is cooking up.
    oooh, very shouty
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,717

    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Tim who?
    Shut up, you're making me feel old and feel guilty about how many years of my life I've wasted on this site. All in six letters and a punctuation mark? You utter bar steward.
    Your welcome! :smile:
    Ahhh, but you've been sucked into it too - I think of you as a recent (but very welcome) addition to the site, yet your post count, albeit Vanilla-only, has almost crossed over my own. In ten years' time, or in three more commenting systems (which I believe is the official era-measurer of PB), you'll be nursing the milestone of your 50,000th post and wondering just where all the time has gone!

    Occasionally wiser heads than I suggest a sin tax on addictive products but I fear for OGH's bank balance if one's ever brought in...
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,633
    viewcode said:

    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption.

    That's an awkward threshold. What's his criteria for "contribute to NATO"?

    I don't know if you know this but a lot of UK defence planning is up in the air at the moment: the 2015 Spending Review expanded defence spending (yay) but the 2015 SDSR overcommitted (boo) so there was the 2017 National Security Capability Review (NSCR) which floated an absolute shitload of cuts/mergers (boo), so Gavin Williamson went postal (yay!) and the defence stuff is separated out into the 2018 Modernising Defence Programme (MDP) so might be preserved (yay) or might not (boo), nobody knows what's happening and stuff is still being sold off (so bye-bye HMS Ocean).


    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/555607/2015_Strategic_Defence_and_Security_Review.pdf
    https://rusi.org/publication/whitehall-reports/decision-time-national-security-capability-review-2017–2018
    https://rusi.org/commentary/uk-modernising-defence-programme-‘get-programme’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/12/pm-warned-tory-revolt-horrific-defence-cuts/
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defence_and_Security_Review_2015

    We've always spent a lot on the RAF
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,243
    edited March 9

    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Tim who?
    Shut up, you're making me feel old and feel guilty about how many years of my life I've wasted on this site. All in six letters and a punctuation mark? You utter bar steward.
    Your welcome! :smile:
    Ahhh, but you've been sucked into it too - I think of you as a recent (but very welcome) addition to the site, yet your post count, albeit Vanilla-only, has almost crossed over my own. In ten years' time, or in three more commenting systems (which I believe is the official era-measurer of PB), you'll be nursing the milestone of your 50,000th post and wondering just where all the time has gone!

    Occasionally wiser heads than I suggest a sin tax on addictive products but I fear for OGH's bank balance if one's ever brought in...
    I think if you added up all of Ben's previous personas it would be rather higher than two thousand posts. ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061

    welshowl said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm still stumped as to why people are making such a huge deal over the Irish border. Switzerland shares a border with three EU countries and it's not in the customs union. If it can be done in Switzerland it can be done on Ireland.

    Quite. They ( including the Irish and especially Varadkar) are making a big deal because they want to. It’s not seamless now. You can’t by cigarettes in Newry retail and sell them in Dundalk, as it is.

    It’s a stick to attempt to beat us with, to try and stop us diverging, which is the EU’s obvious worry.
    Why has the UK government agreed to no infrastructure and no checks and why are Brexiteers no up in arms about it?
    The leavers simply will not be drawn into blackmail
    I wonder if that emotion could be harnessed by convincing them the EU is trying to kick us out... ;)
    Egads!!

    That is the mother of all conspiracy theories. Merkel wanted us out so she gave Cameron a shit deal and said take it or leave it. It was the coup de grace after all those years of straight (or was it bendy?) bananas, mumbai rather than bombay mix, and banned prawn cocktail crisps. To make sure we exit with no deal they have defined some red lines and are, er, sticking to them. It's just not British!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,098

    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Tim who?
    Shut up, you're making me feel old and feel guilty about how many years of my life I've wasted on this site. All in six letters and a punctuation mark? You utter bar steward.

    My only consolation is how many more years than me some of the old-timers have been here, and that my post-count remains under 10,000. (Though it isn't counting all those vanished comments from the Disqus Era. Nor the whatever-it-was-that-we-had-for-all-those-years-before-Disqus.)
    My posts to this timesink date from about 2010/11. So Tim is a bit before my time. Could you in a sentence or two describe him and why the good folk of PB have such a reaction.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,243
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Tim who?
    Shut up, you're making me feel old and feel guilty about how many years of my life I've wasted on this site. All in six letters and a punctuation mark? You utter bar steward.

    My only consolation is how many more years than me some of the old-timers have been here, and that my post-count remains under 10,000. (Though it isn't counting all those vanished comments from the Disqus Era. Nor the whatever-it-was-that-we-had-for-all-those-years-before-Disqus.)
    My posts to this timesink date from about 2010/11. So Tim is a bit before my time. Could you in a sentence or two describe him and why the good folk of PB have such a reaction.
    A clever bastard. But a complete and utter ****.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    I agree. It's (from the UK perspective) a storm in a teacup. Our total steel exports to the US (of all types) amounts to £360m odd, which is ~0.3% of our total exports to the USA, and ~0.06% of our total exports.

    What's more worrying is that it derails the free trade narrative that Fox keeps peddling (which is odd, given the UK's economy is service based, and extant FTAs don't generally address services in anything more than a rudimentary manner).

    In terms of NI border, we should have assumed WTO and started digging ditches and building lorry parks 18 months ago. It may not be soluble, as it's clearly a political, rather than a logistical issue.

    Switzerland manages without those, and it has borders with Germany, France, Italy and Austria. If it can be done in Switzerland, a nation which exports a lot more in terms of its GDP than Ireland or the UK, then it can be done at the Irish border.

    As I said, I'm genuinely confused as to why this has turned into such a big deal. There will be no travel restrictions, which is people's biggest fear and the UK can unilaterally allow Irish citizens the right to resettle in the UK and vice versa, just as Ireland does now for anyone born in NI.

    A customs border really isn't a big deal, definitely not as big a deal as is being made out at the moment. If a real border crossing was being suggested then I could understand the issues, but no one has suggested that Ireland will leave the CTA, have they?
    The Irish constitution before the Good Friday Agreement was ratified said this:

    The national territory consists of the whole island of Ireland, its islands and the territorial seas.

    The peace process wasn't simply a matter of dealing with warring communities in Northern Ireland, but of creating a constitutional process for managing a territorial dispute based on the principle of consent. That's why it can't be compared to Switzerland.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061

    rcs1000 said:

    J

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens
    As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

    I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?
    The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales
    FFS! The EU is not threatening UK steelworkers jobs! If there is any threat it comes from Trump!

    Say we took the preferential 'offer' that Trump may or may not make. That would put us on the US side of a tariff border with the EU. We export 6% of our steel to the US but 13% to France, 12% to Germany, 9% to Ireland, 8% to the Netherlands and no doubt another sizeable chunk to the rest of the EU.

    Leaving the single market is going to have a far worse impact on our steel exports than anything Trump is cooking up.
    oooh, very shouty
    I know, sorry, but Big_G appeared to be deaf to my quieter persuasions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    welshowl said:

    Foxy said:

    welshowl said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    True. But chances are in this n other circumstances would have no problem with us.
    One of the positives about Corbyns Brexit policy is that it does not mean sucking up to bullies like Trump. It is about having the ability to protect our industries, such as Welsh steel. Far better a Corbyns Brexit than a Hannanite one.
    I take your point, and it’s better than other alternatives for sure, but it still involves putting a wall around us and about 7% of the world, to the exclusion of the other 93%. The 93% is going to define the 21st century. Better to get involved, than clinging to the 21st century Austria Hungarian empire. In my view at the least. Others may differ.
    I am no EUphile but the EU as a whole is ahead of China in second place to the USA in gdp terms at the moment with Japan well behind those 3 in 4th place.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Tim who?
    Shut up, you're making me feel old and feel guilty about how many years of my life I've wasted on this site. All in six letters and a punctuation mark? You utter bar steward.
    Your welcome! :smile:
    Ahhh, but you've been sucked into it too - I think of you as a recent (but very welcome) addition to the site, yet your post count, albeit Vanilla-only, has almost crossed over my own. In ten years' time, or in three more commenting systems (which I believe is the official era-measurer of PB), you'll be nursing the milestone of your 50,000th post and wondering just where all the time has gone!

    Occasionally wiser heads than I suggest a sin tax on addictive products but I fear for OGH's bank balance if one's ever brought in...
    I think if you added up all of Ben's previous personas it would be rather higher than two thousand posts. ;)
    I'm not a believer in reincarnation!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    I do wonder what Starmer and Umunna make of what Corbyn said on Brexit, and how it has been received? Starmer at least must have had some significant input, but it has added no material clarity to Labour's position. Where do the Remainers in Labour go from here?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    I agree. It's (from the UK perspective) a storm in a teacup. Our total steel exports to the US (of all types) amounts to £360m odd, which is ~0.3% of our total exports to the USA, and ~0.06% of our total exports.

    What's more worrying is that it derails the free trade narrative that Fox keeps peddling (which is odd, given the UK's economy is service based, and extant FTAs don't generally address services in anything more than a rudimentary manner).

    In terms of NI border, we should have assumed WTO and started digging ditches and building lorry parks 18 months ago. It may not be soluble, as it's clearly a political, rather than a logistical issue.

    Switzerland manages without those, and it has borders with Germany, France, Italy and Austria. If it can be done in Switzerland, a nation which exports a lot more in terms of its GDP than Ireland or the UK, then it can be done at the Irish border.

    As I said, I'm genuinely confused as to why this has turned into such a big deal. There will be no travel restrictions, which is people's biggest fear and the UK can unilaterally allow Irish citizens the right to resettle in the UK and vice versa, just as Ireland does now for anyone born in NI.

    A customs border really isn't a big deal, definitely not as big a deal as is being made out at the moment. If a real border crossing was being suggested then I could understand the issues, but no one has suggested that Ireland will leave the CTA, have they?
    The Swiss haven't had an insurgency in recent decades. I agree it's overblown - the GFA is being treated as if Moses had tottered down from the mount with it graven on tablets of stone.

    However, for those of us who remember playing Chris Crawford's 'Balance of Power', minor issues can derail any political process.

    If the EU are making it a red line (as they appear to be), then (given that technical solutions are unacceptable to Varadkar) May has to either roll over or tell them to fuck off.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    John_M said:

    If the EU are making it a red line (as they appear to be), then (given that technical solutions are unacceptable to Varadkar) May has to either roll over or tell them to fuck off.

    May has already agreed to no infrastructure and no checks which surely rules out a technical solution, despite any impression the government is trying to give that the matter is still open.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,098

    viewcode said:

    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption.

    That's an awkward threshold. What's his criteria for "contribute to NATO"?

    I don't know if you know this but a lot of UK defence planning is up in the air at the moment: the 2015 Spending Review expanded defence spending (yay) but the 2015 SDSR overcommitted (boo) so there was the 2017 National Security Capability Review (NSCR) which floated an absolute shitload of cuts/mergers (boo), so Gavin Williamson went postal (yay!) and the defence stuff is separated out into the 2018 Modernising Defence Programme (MDP) so might be preserved (yay) or might not (boo), nobody knows what's happening and stuff is still being sold off (so bye-bye HMS Ocean).


    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/555607/2015_Strategic_Defence_and_Security_Review.pdf
    https://rusi.org/publication/whitehall-reports/decision-time-national-security-capability-review-2017–2018
    https://rusi.org/commentary/uk-modernising-defence-programme-‘get-programme’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/12/pm-warned-tory-revolt-horrific-defence-cuts/
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defence_and_Security_Review_2015

    We've always spent a lot on the RAF
    My opinion on this is a bit simple: defence spending is good, more defence spending is better. If the bus had had "We spend 350million a week to the EU: let's spend a shit-tonne on (thinks) F22s instead" I would have viewed Brexit differently. So more power to Gavin's elbow, to be frank. (Unless he fails, in which case sod him... :) )
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,633
    John_M said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    I agree. It's (from the UK perspective) a storm in a teacup. Our total steel exports to the US (of all types) amounts to £360m odd, which is ~0.3% of our total exports to the USA, and ~0.06% of our total exports.

    What's more worrying is that it derails the free trade narrative that Fox keeps peddling (which is odd, given the UK's economy is service based, and extant FTAs don't generally address services in anything more than a rudimentary manner).

    In terms of NI border, we should have assumed WTO and started digging ditches and building lorry parks 18 months ago. It may not be soluble, as it's clearly a political, rather than a logistical issue.

    Switzerland manages without those, and it has borders with Germany, France, Italy and Austria. If it can be done in Switzerland, a nation which exports a lot more in terms of its GDP than Ireland or the UK, then it can be done at the Irish border.

    As I said, I'm genuinely confused as to why this has turned into such a big deal. There will be no travel restrictions, which is people's biggest fear and the UK can unilaterally allow Irish citizens the right to resettle in the UK and vice versa, just as Ireland does now for anyone born in NI.

    A customs border really isn't a big deal, definitely not as big a deal as is being made out at the moment. If a real border crossing was being suggested then I could understand the issues, but no one has suggested that Ireland will leave the CTA, have they?
    The Swiss haven't had an insurgency in recent decades. I agree it's overblown - the GFA is being treated as if Moses had tottered down from the mount with it graven on tablets of stone.

    However, for those of us who remember playing Chris Crawford's 'Balance of Power', minor issues can derail any political process.

    If the EU are making it a red line (as they appear to be), then (given that technical solutions are unacceptable to Varadkar) May has to either roll over or tell them to fuck off.
    can you roll over in a ditch?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

    Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

    Quick way to assist leave in spades

    The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

    The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.
    ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.
    The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?
    Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

    Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens
    Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.
    Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens
    As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

    I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?
    The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales
    Wales voted to leave the EU. Expect the EU to treat you like any other country outside the EU.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tim hasn't lost his edge.

    Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?
    Tim who?
    Shut up, you're making me feel old and feel guilty about how many years of my life I've wasted on this site. All in six letters and a punctuation mark? You utter bar steward.

    My only consolation is how many more years than me some of the old-timers have been here, and that my post-count remains under 10,000. (Though it isn't counting all those vanished comments from the Disqus Era. Nor the whatever-it-was-that-we-had-for-all-those-years-before-Disqus.)
    My posts to this timesink date from about 2010/11. So Tim is a bit before my time. Could you in a sentence or two describe him and why the good folk of PB have such a reaction.
    Tim was a misogynistic wit. Good on betting matters, but very much a wanker.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,098
    edited March 9
    [deleted: not as funny as I thought it was]
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,243
    edited March 9
    John_M said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    I agree. It's (from the UK perspective) a storm in a teacup. Our total steel exports to the US (of all types) amounts to £360m odd, which is ~0.3% of our total exports to the USA, and ~0.06% of our total exports.

    What's more worrying is that it derails the free trade narrative that Fox keeps peddling (which is odd, given the UK's economy is service based, and extant FTAs don't generally address services in anything more than a rudimentary manner).

    In terms of NI border, we should have assumed WTO and started digging ditches and building lorry parks 18 months ago. It may not be soluble, as it's clearly a political, rather than a logistical issue.

    Switzerland manages without those, and it has borders with Germany, France, Italy and Austria. If it can be done in Switzerland, a nation which exports a lot more in terms of its GDP than Ireland or the UK, then it can be done at the Irish border.

    As I said, I'm genuinely confused as to why this has turned into such a big deal. There will be no travel restrictions, which is people's biggest fear and the UK can unilaterally allow Irish citizens the right to resettle in the UK and vice versa, just as Ireland does now for anyone born in NI.

    A customs border really isn't a big deal, definitely not as big a deal as is being made out at the moment. If a real border crossing was being suggested then I could understand the issues, but no one has suggested that Ireland will leave the CTA, have they?
    The Swiss haven't had an insurgency in recent decades. I agree it's overblown - the GFA is being treated as if Moses had tottered down from the mount with it graven on tablets of stone.

    However, for those of us who remember playing Chris Crawford's 'Balance of Power', minor issues can derail any political process.

    If the EU are making it a red line (as they appear to be), then (given that technical solutions are unacceptable to Varadkar) May has to either roll over or tell them to fuck off.
    I think it can be today. After 20 years of peace, does anyone on either side of the border want to pick up their rifles again?

    A customs border isn't going impinge on people's ability to travel or settle on either side of the border. It is to ensure that certain goods have the right tariffs charged on them when they are imported. No more, no less. Additionally, there is already a personal customs border for fags and booze given the differing rates of duty applied in NI vs RoI. So I'll say it again, what difference is it really going to make?

    In Theresa's position I'd tell Varadkar to go and fuck off, if he wants to hold up Brexit or force us into a WTO Brexit then he's really only damaging his own country.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061

    John_M said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    I agree. It's (from the UK perspective) a storm in a teacup. Our total steel exports to the US (of all types) amounts to £360m odd, which is ~0.3% of our total exports to the USA, and ~0.06% of our total exports.

    What's more worrying is that it derails the free trade narrative that Fox keeps peddling (which is odd, given the UK's economy is service based, and extant FTAs don't generally address services in anything more than a rudimentary manner).

    In terms of NI border, we should have assumed WTO and started digging ditches and building lorry parks 18 months ago. It may not be soluble, as it's clearly a political, rather than a logistical issue.

    Switzerland manages without those, and it has borders with Germany, France, Italy and Austria. If it can be done in Switzerland, a nation which exports a lot more in terms of its GDP than Ireland or the UK, then it can be done at the Irish border.

    As I said, I'm genuinely confused as to why this has turned into such a big deal. There will be no travel restrictions, which is people's biggest fear and the UK can unilaterally allow Irish citizens the right to resettle in the UK and vice versa, just as Ireland does now for anyone born in NI.

    A customs border really isn't a big deal, definitely not as big a deal as is being made out at the moment. If a real border crossing was being suggested then I could understand the issues, but no one has suggested that Ireland will leave the CTA, have they?
    The Swiss haven't had an insurgency in recent decades. I agree it's overblown - the GFA is being treated as if Moses had tottered down from the mount with it graven on tablets of stone.

    However, for those of us who remember playing Chris Crawford's 'Balance of Power', minor issues can derail any political process.

    If the EU are making it a red line (as they appear to be), then (given that technical solutions are unacceptable to Varadkar) May has to either roll over or tell them to fuck off.
    can you roll over in a ditch?
    not sure if this is one to die in a ditch over. :wink:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,009
    Wonder what Dr Palmer will make of this?
This discussion has been closed.