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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More want a softer Brexit, a 2nd referendum or Brexit abandone

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More want a softer Brexit, a 2nd referendum or Brexit abandoned completely than back government’s current strategy

The above from the latest YouGov poll has not received much attention – what voters now say what they want on Brexit. Clearly this will evolve as thing progress.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Well they can't have it.

    The choice was made on June 23rd 2016.
  • Primus inter pares.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,784
    Anybody say margin of error....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,324
    edited March 10
    EDIT: Fourth like The government should abandon Brexit completely and remain a member of the European Union.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 602
    This poll does not present any problem to team TMay.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,378
    So long as those numbers do not grow appreciably, it isn't much of a problem for May, not compared to other ones she faces. As someone who would prefer a softer brexit and is not certain how I would vote were there a second referendum, with the numbers as they are presented I cannot really agree with the conclusion of it presenting a problem - the current approach has a major lead of the other options, more than I would have expected frankly. With so many options, including 'don't know', that combining three of those options equals more than the single option of continue as is, does not strike me as hugely problematic for May unless the switch to it being more is significantly increased. Which is possible of course, but it not receiving much attention seems warranted, as it doesn't mean much. Yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    So 52% still want Brexit (80% on the government's current terms) and only 33% want Brexit to be abandoned or a second referendum.

    Provided we get a FTA that ends free movement most voters will be satisfied
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 907
    I would have headlined this post "remain down to 14% from 48% in 2016" but hey, I'm one of the 52%.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,894
    HYUFD said:

    So 52% still want Brexit (80% on the government's current terms) and only 33% want Brexit to be abandoned or a second referendum.

    Provided we get a FTA that ends free movement most voters will be satisfied

    There will be few happy with the shambles that is coming
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    Yawn.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    May will deliver a Goldilocks Brexit. Not too hot, not too cold.

    The Tory Party will rally round it, each convincing they did their bit to prevent a worse (from their perspective) deal.

    The Labour Party will spiral into recriminations for letting Brexit happen at all.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    edited March 10
    Daft way of interpreting stats. If the Conservatives got 49% at the next election the same 'argument' could be made that it doesn't have any legitimacy to form a government even if the next best party got 20%.

    Edited extra bit: you can't just add together all those that want option Y and Z as being against option X. By that logic, you can add together those who want X and Z against Y, and X and Y against Z. Or say 86% are against abandoning our departure altogether.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,653
    "The government should continue with Brexit on its current negotiating terms." is as vague as those terms, which will never see light of day. Brexit will either be harder or softer.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 233
    I honestly don't know which of the answers I'd give if asked the question at this point. My head respects the referendum result but my heart sinks at the prospect.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,378

    If the Conservatives got 49% at the next election the same 'argument' could be made that it doesn't have any legitimacy to form a government even if the next best party got 20%.

    There are people who make that argument at every election. Which is fine, so long as they make that argument no matter who has the highest vote share while being less than 50%. PR gets a lot of fairweather supporters in the immediate aftermath of an election win by the wrong people.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,653
    Key fact. The 42% who think Britain will be better off economically with Brexit are deluded. But that's what they think.

  • My Corbynista friends are going postal over Corbyn sounding like Nigel Farage.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. Eagles, surely they're 'going postal' over other people pointing it out?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867

    My Corbynista friends are going postal over Corbyn sounding like Nigel Farage.

    Why? And that's a serious question. If we're honest the basic difference between Corbyn and Farage is one has had a job outside politics and the other hasn't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    kle4 said:

    If the Conservatives got 49% at the next election the same 'argument' could be made that it doesn't have any legitimacy to form a government even if the next best party got 20%.

    There are people who make that argument at every election. Which is fine, so long as they make that argument no matter who has the highest vote share while being less than 50%. PR gets a lot of fairweather supporters in the immediate aftermath of an election win by the wrong people.
    Yes I doubt many would have been advocating the Tory UKIP government rather than Cameron majority government we would have got in 2015 under PR
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,784

    My Corbynista friends are going postal over Corbyn sounding like Nigel Farage.

    But not hanging out in Jew hating conspiracy nutter filled Facebook groups?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,097
    I expect we won’t see as desperate an interpretation of voting intentions as this for quite some time.

    As HYUFD pointed out, there is a very clear majority of those expressing a preference to continue with Brexit. That’s what matters.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 907
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 52% still want Brexit (80% on the government's current terms) and only 33% want Brexit to be abandoned or a second referendum.

    Provided we get a FTA that ends free movement most voters will be satisfied

    There will be few happy with the shambles that is coming
    True. And you could probably put me in the "government should seek a softer Brexit" category.

    But all I'm getting from this latest poll is that, despite two years of hysterical noise and predictions of apocalyptic doom from the ultra-remainers, the vast majority of people want democracy to be respected. It suggests that remaining part of the EU has gone from being a minority view to a _fringe_ view, and that there is a plurality of support for the government's current position (and majority support when you add together hard brexit + soft), support that far outweighs the noisy but impotent rumblings of hardcore remainers.

    The polling seems to suggest that most people who aren't political wonks obsessed with the topic just want the government of the day to get on with it and secure the best possible outcome that respects the vote.

    It also suggests to me that Corbyn is more in tune with the electorate than the majority of his party and those hoping for a Labour pivot to remain are barking up the wrong tree...
  • ydoethur said:

    My Corbynista friends are going postal over Corbyn sounding like Nigel Farage.

    Why? And that's a serious question. If we're honest the basic difference between Corbyn and Farage is one has had a job outside politics and the other hasn't.
    A lot of them have done degrees in this field and that Corbyn's argument is faulty, they have empirical evidence.

    Blaming immigrants for lower wages is a no no in their eyes, it is the language of the far right racists.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    edited March 10

    ydoethur said:

    My Corbynista friends are going postal over Corbyn sounding like Nigel Farage.

    Why? And that's a serious question. If we're honest the basic difference between Corbyn and Farage is one has had a job outside politics and the other hasn't.
    A lot of them have done degrees in this field and that Corbyn's argument is faulty, they have empirical evidence.

    Blaming immigrants for lower wages is a no no in their eyes, it is the language of the far right racists.
    Ah, right, I misunderstood your post. I thought you were saying they were angry at Corbyn being like Nigel Farage, which I found puzzling given how similar they are.

    Apologies. Blame the vast amount of driving I had to do today chasing disparate members of my family for various bits of paper.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,784

    ydoethur said:

    My Corbynista friends are going postal over Corbyn sounding like Nigel Farage.

    Why? And that's a serious question. If we're honest the basic difference between Corbyn and Farage is one has had a job outside politics and the other hasn't.
    A lot of them have done degrees in this field and that Corbyn's argument is faulty, they have empirical evidence.

    Blaming immigrants for lower wages is a no no in their eyes, it is the language of the far right racists.
    They were either piss poor students or went to crap unis if they studied economics and were taken in by corbynomics....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    HYUFD said:

    So 52% still want Brexit (80% on the government's current terms) and only 33% want Brexit to be abandoned or a second referendum.

    Provided we get a FTA that ends free movement most voters will be satisfied

    An FTA ending free movement means a border down the Irish Sea. Do you think this government can deliver that? Do you think people will have happy with an FTA if it is accompanied by tax rises and a recession?
  • My Corbynista friends are going postal over Corbyn sounding like Nigel Farage.

    But not hanging out in Jew hating conspiracy nutter filled Facebook groups?
    Apparently anyone can add you to a facebook group.

    Plus facebook groups can change their names, you might like a page about 'Dogs' and the administrator of the page can turn it into a page 'We Love Pineapple on Pizza.'

    I'm going to take that job at N.M. Rothschild & Sons in Manchester for the lolz.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,820
    edited March 10
    Evening all :)

    In my gambling infancy, I was taught one golden rule - "no one ever went to the poorhouse backing against England in sport" so merci beaucoup, mes amis as another glorious English sporting failure helps pay for Mrs Stodge's Sunday lunch.

    Patriotism ? There's a time and a place for it but not when punting. Since the dark days of the 2003 Rugby World Cup when I did my cojones, it's been largely plain sailing and I look forward to the summer's World Cup as another example of glorious profitable failure.

    On topic and it's a difficult time - negotiations are continuing and while I'm no supporter of this wretched excuse for a Government and the dismal non-entity who passes for a Prime Minister, I'm happy to allow the process to reach its conclusion and seeing what kind of A50 agreement we get.

    As someone has already said, it's unlikely to please everybody - it may not please anybody - but I'm willing to see what is produced. Would I like a vote on the A50 agreement as presented ? Yes, but I know I won't get one because there's no provision for a NO vote - does voting NO mean crashing out without an agreement, negotiating some more or abandoning the whole process ?

    Rather as those of us who voted LEAVE on 23/6/16 had many and varied reasons for doing so, those who opt to reject the A50 Agreement will come from various places.

    As for the notion an FTA and the end of Freedom of Movement will somehow have us all dancing in the streets and throwing petals at Mrs May's feet, I'll some of what HYUFD is smoking. Immigration is far more than dealing with who wants to come - it is also about who is already here (rightly or wrongly).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    FF43 said:

    Key fact. The 42% who think Britain will be better off economically with Brexit are deluded. But that's what they think.

    If you look at the party breakdown for those stats, the vast majority of them are Tory voters. Can the Tories be the ones to tell them some home truths?
  • ydoethur said:

    My Corbynista friends are going postal over Corbyn sounding like Nigel Farage.

    Why? And that's a serious question. If we're honest the basic difference between Corbyn and Farage is one has had a job outside politics and the other hasn't.
    A lot of them have done degrees in this field and that Corbyn's argument is faulty, they have empirical evidence.

    Blaming immigrants for lower wages is a no no in their eyes, it is the language of the far right racists.
    They were either piss poor students or went to crap unis if they studied economics and were taken in by corbynomics....
    Mostly UoM.

    Corbynomics will work, only the establishment will stop it in their eyes.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,009
    LOL! :D
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611

    HYUFD said:

    So 52% still want Brexit (80% on the government's current terms) and only 33% want Brexit to be abandoned or a second referendum.

    Provided we get a FTA that ends free movement most voters will be satisfied

    An FTA ending free movement means a border down the Irish Sea. Do you think this government can deliver that? Do you think people will have happy with an FTA if it is accompanied by tax rises and a recession?
    Must be lonely in your little bubble, eh?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,784

    ydoethur said:

    My Corbynista friends are going postal over Corbyn sounding like Nigel Farage.

    Why? And that's a serious question. If we're honest the basic difference between Corbyn and Farage is one has had a job outside politics and the other hasn't.
    A lot of them have done degrees in this field and that Corbyn's argument is faulty, they have empirical evidence.

    Blaming immigrants for lower wages is a no no in their eyes, it is the language of the far right racists.
    They were either piss poor students or went to crap unis if they studied economics and were taken in by corbynomics....
    Mostly UoM.

    Corbynomics will work, only the establishment will stop it in their eyes.
    As i said crap unis...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,653

    I honestly don't know which of the answers I'd give if asked the question at this point. My head respects the referendum result but my heart sinks at the prospect.

    Soft Brexit, I think. Embrace the mediocrity.

    The UK swaps semi-detached for semi-attached. People can live with that,I believe, unlike any of the alternatives. It still sucks though.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,820
    I notice the Telegraph today (which I buy for my Dad and the General Knowledge crossword, the one being harder work than the other) was banging the drum for tax cuts because Philip Hammond has a £7.5 billion windfall (apparently).

    I actually thought Conservatives believed in sound financial management so reducing the deficit and paying down the debt seem much more sensible than this ludicrous notion of cutting taxes but for some reason the Telegraph believes we should have a little more money together and sod future generations stuck with our debt interest.

    The problem is the Right is as bad as the Left when it comes to economics.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    edited March 10
    Mr. Eagles, that's not a nice way to describe Sir Stuart Rose's contribution to the EU referendum campaign.

    Edited extra bit: for grammar.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 763
    edited March 10
    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    edited March 10
    F1: the spreads are up. But they're just the shitty stupid rubbish position index rather than points ones. Why is that? It's a daft market and far less interesting than the points one. Humbug!

    Edited extra bit: only one that I'd vaguely suggest looking at is:
    Drivers: buy Bottas at 21. That's a 1 point loss if he's 4th, and wins if he's 3rd or better.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 87 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Which is the same number who voted for parties giving manifesto commitments to implement Brexit in the 2017 General Election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    In my gambling infancy, I was taught one golden rule - "no one ever went to the poorhouse backing against England in sport" so merci beaucoup, mes amis as another glorious English sporting failure helps pay for Mrs Stodge's Sunday lunch.

    Patriotism ? There's a time and a place for it but not when punting. Since the dark days of the 2003 Rugby World Cup when I did my cojones, it's been largely plain sailing and I look forward to the summer's World Cup as another example of glorious profitable failure.

    On topic and it's a difficult time - negotiations are continuing and while I'm no supporter of this wretched excuse for a Government and the dismal non-entity who passes for a Prime Minister, I'm happy to allow the process to reach its conclusion and seeing what kind of A50 agreement we get.

    As someone has already said, it's unlikely to please everybody - it may not please anybody - but I'm willing to see what is produced. Would I like a vote on the A50 agreement as presented ? Yes, but I know I won't get one because there's no provision for a NO vote - does voting NO mean crashing out without an agreement, negotiating some more or abandoning the whole process ?

    Rather as those of us who voted LEAVE on 23/6/16 had many and varied reasons for doing so, those who opt to reject the A50 Agreement will come from various places.

    As for the notion an FTA and the end of Freedom of Movement will somehow have us all dancing in the streets and throwing petals at Mrs May's feet, I'll some of what HYUFD is smoking. Immigration is far more than dealing with who wants to come - it is also about who is already here (rightly or wrongly).

    You cannot begin to deal with those already here unless you gain control of who wants to come
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    It's significant that this poll shows movement against support for Brexit even as people are starting to be less critical of the government's handling of negotiations. People realise there's no cake on offer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544

    HYUFD said:

    So 52% still want Brexit (80% on the government's current terms) and only 33% want Brexit to be abandoned or a second referendum.

    Provided we get a FTA that ends free movement most voters will be satisfied

    An FTA ending free movement means a border down the Irish Sea. Do you think this government can deliver that? Do you think people will have happy with an FTA if it is accompanied by tax rises and a recession?
    Not if there is the regulatory alignment May agreed to in December.

    A Canada style FTA will avoid a deep recession and big tax rises that going straight to WTO terms might lead to
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:


    You cannot begin to deal with those already here unless you gain control of who wants to come

    Indeed but it's an immigration AND a migration policy we need. I don't believe the one exists without the other.

    IF you are going to have a system where residency is dependent on having a work permit or visa how is that to be policed ? I don't believe the Government or its supporters have the slightest notion of the number of EU migrants living and working in the black economy.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,616
    pretty sure the UK will still be in the Uk Mike.......
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 907

    It's significant that this poll shows movement against support for Brexit even as people are starting to be less critical of the government's handling of negotiations. People realise there's no cake on offer.

    Support for Remain, June 2016: 48%
    Support for Remain, March 2018: 14%

    Joking aside, surely even you can see how badly this bodes for the inevitable "rejoin" campaign once we're out.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    Steve Bannon addressed the Front National conference today...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,616
    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 763

    HYUFD said:

    So 52% still want Brexit (80% on the government's current terms) and only 33% want Brexit to be abandoned or a second referendum.

    Provided we get a FTA that ends free movement most voters will be satisfied

    An FTA ending free movement means a border down the Irish Sea. Do you think this government can deliver that? Do you think people will have happy with an FTA if it is accompanied by tax rises and a recession?
    Does it?

    The Isle of Man and Channel Islands have freedom of movement with the Irish Republic but aren't in the EU at present. We can have free movement with any nation in the world if we so wish or not.

    We also had customs controls between the UK (including NI) and the Irish free state/Republic from 1923 to 1992. Seemed to work fine - 40 of those years were pre the troubles. Not sure why we couldn't make something similar work again with modern technology.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 52% still want Brexit (80% on the government's current terms) and only 33% want Brexit to be abandoned or a second referendum.

    Provided we get a FTA that ends free movement most voters will be satisfied

    An FTA ending free movement means a border down the Irish Sea. Do you think this government can deliver that? Do you think people will have happy with an FTA if it is accompanied by tax rises and a recession?
    Does it?

    The Isle of Man and Channel Islands have freedom of movement with the Irish Republic but aren't in the EU at present. We can have free movement with any nation in the world if we so wish or not.

    We also had customs controls between the UK (including NI) and the Irish free state/Republic from 1923 to 1992. Seemed to work fine - 40 of those years were pre the troubles. Not sure why we couldn't make something similar work again with modern technology.
    Yes it does, and we can't go back to something similar to what existed before the EU because both sides have categorically ruled it out.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840
    kyf_100 said:

    I would have headlined this post "remain down to 14% from 48% in 2016" but hey, I'm one of the 52%.

    But it isn't down to 14%. There are a lot of us who regard Brexit as highly undesirable but who respect the vote and so support the process of leaving. Assuming the government can actually work out how to do it that is.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,478
    Floater said:

    pretty sure the UK will still be in the Uk Mike.......

    I'm not betting on anything..I need good odds to attract me and there aren't any on Brexit related issues at the moment.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,478
    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    You cannot begin to deal with those already here unless you gain control of who wants to come

    Indeed but it's an immigration AND a migration policy we need. I don't believe the one exists without the other.

    IF you are going to have a system where residency is dependent on having a work permit or visa how is that to be policed ? I don't believe the Government or its supporters have the slightest notion of the number of EU migrants living and working in the black economy.

    Well you certainly cannot get control of the black economy with free movement, at least work permits offer the chance to get control of it
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,616
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    So 52% still want Brexit (80% on the government's current terms) and only 33% want Brexit to be abandoned or a second referendum.

    Provided we get a FTA that ends free movement most voters will be satisfied

    There will be few happy with the shambles that is coming
    Could be worse, the SNP might be in charge
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    edited March 10
    HYUFD said:

    You cannot begin to deal with those already here unless you gain control of who wants to come

    If you watch the video of a black student being abused with racist chanting in university halls, they shout "sign the Brexit papers" and for some reason this seems to have become a common phrase. You should be very careful about where language like "dealing with those already here" could lead.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 132

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers

    Hmm... not sure that’s a very adult comment on a politics site...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,492
    You Gove have never e mailed me about this.. something I find rather surprising...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,616
    edited March 10

    Floater said:

    pretty sure the UK will still be in the Uk Mike.......

    I'm not betting on anything..I need good odds to attract me and there aren't any on Brexit related issues at the moment.
    Sorry - it was a poor attempt at a joke pointing out what I thought was a typo in thread header

    EDIT - I see its changed already
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,784
    Graduate sues Anglia Ruskin University claiming she ended up with a 'mickey mouse' degree

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/10/graduate-sues-anglia-ruskin-university-claiming-ended-mickey/
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,725

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers

    Hmm... not sure that’s a very adult comment on a politics site...
    It's Mike site though.

    So his rules
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,784

    You Gove have never e mailed me about this.. something I find rather surprising...

    Is that a new more argumentative polling company?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 907

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers

    Hmm... not sure that’s a very adult comment on a politics site...
    It's his site at the end of the day and we are all just guests here. But it's also a place I've gained many hours of pleasure from precisely because it isn't an echo chamber one way or the other. I enjoy being exposed to people whose views challenge my own (even if it doesn't always seem that way!).

    My interpretation of this poll is very different to OGH. To me, it suggests that remain is becoming a fringe view and most people, remain or leave in 2016, just want the government to get on with it. But he's also right that a greater number (44%) can be found in a coalition of soft leavers, second referendumers, and hardcore remainers. There is an opportunity here for Labour for example if their policy was to offer a second referendum on remain/leave/soft Brexit that could see them pick up votes. However I suspect that this kind of transparent fence-sitting would be seen a mile off by all sides.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,266

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers
    I come for the AV threads, and I stay for the pineapple pizza debates. :p
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers
    I come for the AV threads, and I stay for the pineapple pizza debates. :p
    It's the in-depth discussion of the Second Punic Wars for me.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,784
    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers
    I come for the AV threads, and I stay for the pineapple pizza debates. :p
    Personally i am just here for the debates on the best Christmas movie, which of course we now know is die hard.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,725
    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers
    I come for the AV threads, and I stay for the pineapple pizza debates. :p
    I like the more want a softer BREXIT ones best
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434

    Graduate sues Anglia Ruskin University claiming she ended up with a 'mickey mouse' degree

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/10/graduate-sues-anglia-ruskin-university-claiming-ended-mickey/

    She "move[d] to the UK to study at the university’s Lord Ashcroft International Business School in Cambridge." It's not like the warning signs weren't there.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,725

    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers
    I come for the AV threads, and I stay for the pineapple pizza debates. :p
    I like the more want a softer BREXIT ones best
    Actually I only come on here so I can get advice when I am locked in a Tunisian hotel bedroom with a mad terrorist firing gunshots outside the window.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,784
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Graduate sues Anglia Ruskin University claiming she ended up with a 'mickey mouse' degree

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/10/graduate-sues-anglia-ruskin-university-claiming-ended-mickey/

    She "move[d] to the UK to study at the university’s Lord Ashcroft International Business School in Cambridge." It's not like the warning signs weren't there.
    I presume they have special module in how to setup non-Dom status and a triple module in tax efficiency planning.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,098

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers

    Hmm... not sure that’s a very adult comment on a politics site...
    Point 1: This site contains many comments that are not adult (except in the sense of being sweary). So Mike's comments are pretty mature for the site
    Point 2: As I continually point out, this is not a politics site, it's a political betting site. If a purely politics site is required, one may be found elsewhere.
    Point 3: Mike is the owner of the site, so it's pub rules
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,402

    HYUFD said:

    So 52% still want Brexit (80% on the government's current terms) and only 33% want Brexit to be abandoned or a second referendum.

    Provided we get a FTA that ends free movement most voters will be satisfied

    An FTA ending free movement means a border down the Irish Sea. Do you think this government can deliver that? Do you think people will have happy with an FTA if it is accompanied by tax rises and a recession?
    Only in your mind does it. It ain’t going to happen.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    Clearly nonsense poll.

    LibDems on NINE???
  • If we assume UKIP on 2% that gives Labour a majority of 2.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    It would be interesting to see if Survation are picking up something different on Brexit to YouGov.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,885
    Best poll for Labour for a long time.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,725
    AndyJS said:

    Best poll for Labour for a long time.

    Outlier
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,098
    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers
    I come for the AV threads, and I stay for the pineapple pizza debates. :p
    I come to get away from the Star Trek: Discovery vs The Orville debates, one subset of which ("THE VISUAL REBOOT IS GREAT AND OLD FANS ARE SAD" vs "THE NEW DESIGNS ARE SHIT AND WHAT THE FUCK HAVE THEY DONE TO THE KLINGONS?!") makes Brexit look like a whispered caress.

    Seriously, you haven't lived until you've got into an argument about nacelle pylons... :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544

    HYUFD said:

    You cannot begin to deal with those already here unless you gain control of who wants to come

    If you watch the video of a black student being abused with racist chanting in university halls, they shout "sign the Brexit papers" and for some reason this seems to have become a common phrase. You should be very careful about where language like "dealing with those already here" could lead.
    Many BME voters voted for Brexit precisely because it was unfair that migrants from their family did not get the free movement EU migrants got
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,098

    Clearly nonsense poll.

    LibDems on NINE???

    Goddamn it, I was eating Doritos and now my keyboard is ruined. Although thank you for the giggle.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544

    If we assume UKIP on 2% that gives Labour a majority of 2.
    Given Survation underestimated the Tory lead by 1% at the general election it most likely still leads to a hung parliament and Labour and SNP government same as all the other polls, though as it is a GMB poll treat with some care
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688
    This is, despite a rather sad PB headline, a fantastic ring of endorsement for May's strategy.

    Just as her internal opposition within the party is atomized, so opposition to her vision of Brexit is divided. Top stuff Mrs May.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688

    Clearly nonsense poll.

    LibDems on NINE???
    Quite. Have they even got any policy at the moment, apart from that pathetic 'exit from Brexit' line...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,324
    Interestingly, the previous Ipsos Mori and Survation polls had similar numbers at the end of January. Survation had:

    Labour 43
    Conservatives 40
    Lib Dems 8

    Ipsos Mori had:

    Labour 42
    Conservatives 39
    Lib Dems 9


    But here's what Ipsos Mori had this month:

    Conservatives: 43
    Labour: 42
    Lib Dems: 6

    I wonder if there have been any methodology changes in either poll. It seems strange that one picked up a 4 pp increase in the Tory share and the other picked up a 3 pp decrease in the Tory vote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,266
    viewcode said:


    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers
    I come for the AV threads, and I stay for the pineapple pizza debates. :p
    I come to get away from the Star Trek: Discovery vs The Orville debates, one subset of which ("THE VISUAL REBOOT IS GREAT AND OLD FANS ARE SAD" vs "THE NEW DESIGNS ARE SHIT AND WHAT THE FUCK HAVE THEY DONE TO THE KLINGONS?!") makes Brexit look like a whispered caress.

    Seriously, you haven't lived until you've got into an argument about nacelle pylons... :)
    I think I’m in denial about the new series :D
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688
    kyf_100 said:

    It's significant that this poll shows movement against support for Brexit even as people are starting to be less critical of the government's handling of negotiations. People realise there's no cake on offer.

    Support for Remain, June 2016: 48%
    Support for Remain, March 2018: 14%

    Joking aside, surely even you can see how badly this bodes for the inevitable "rejoin" campaign once we're out.
    The British people are, thank God, far more democratic than many Ultra remainers

    Hurrah for the people.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    Mortimer said:

    Clearly nonsense poll.

    LibDems on NINE???
    Quite. Have they even got any policy at the moment, apart from that pathetic 'exit from Brexit' line...
    LDs on 9% seems quite believable to me. They will always pick up a proportion of 'soft' conservatives who are unhappy with the government for whatever reason. Plus they are the only home for the most devout Remainers.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 907
    viewcode said:


    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers
    I come for the AV threads, and I stay for the pineapple pizza debates. :p
    I come to get away from the Star Trek: Discovery vs The Orville debates, one subset of which ("THE VISUAL REBOOT IS GREAT AND OLD FANS ARE SAD" vs "THE NEW DESIGNS ARE SHIT AND WHAT THE FUCK HAVE THEY DONE TO THE KLINGONS?!") makes Brexit look like a whispered caress.

    Seriously, you haven't lived until you've got into an argument about nacelle pylons... :)
    The Orville all the way. Discovery had potential when they moved into the mirror universe, but blew it with that awful last episode. Also the series' constant reliance on plot twists over character development feels like cheap, bad writing. And seriously. WTF _have_ they done to the Klingons? The most unnecessary part of the reboot IMHO.

    The real question is, in ten years time, will remainers be like Doctor Who fans, eventually getting their beloved show back? Or Babylon 5 fans - a lost tribe of ultras slowly sinking into obscurity?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688

    Mortimer said:

    Clearly nonsense poll.

    LibDems on NINE???
    Quite. Have they even got any policy at the moment, apart from that pathetic 'exit from Brexit' line...
    LDs on 9% seems quite believable to me. They will always pick up a proportion of 'soft' conservatives who are unhappy with the government for whatever reason. Plus they are the only home for the most devout Remainers.
    It's partly a joke, but seriously, not even the most loyal LDs can be happy with the present situation which sees them getting less publicity than a party which has had god knows how many leaders in the past year.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,820
    kyf_100 said:

    The Orville all the way. Discovery had potential when they moved into the mirror universe, but blew it with that awful last episode. Also the series' constant reliance on plot twists over character development feels like cheap, bad writing. And seriously. WTF _have_ they done to the Klingons? The most unnecessary part of the reboot IMHO.

    The real question is, in ten years time, will remainers be like Doctor Who fans, eventually getting their beloved show back? Or Babylon 5 fans - a lost tribe of ultras slowly sinking into obscurity?

    I loved The Orville. The best bit was trying to identify which Star Trek TOS or TNG episode they had shamelessly plagiarised. The last in the series was a lift from an idea from DS9 with a bit from a Voyager episode thrown in.

    Looking forward to Series 2.

    As for Discovery, I was concerned they rushed to the Mirror Universe so quickly. It showed a lack of ideas to this observer.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,098
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:


    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    brendan16 said:

    Love the spin on this poll.

    You could equally argue 86 per cent of those asked didn't think we should stop Brexit.

    Thread after thread of spin it seems
    If you do not like it you do not have to come here. Cheers
    I come for the AV threads, and I stay for the pineapple pizza debates. :p
    I come to get away from the Star Trek: Discovery vs The Orville debates, one subset of which ("THE VISUAL REBOOT IS GREAT AND OLD FANS ARE SAD" vs "THE NEW DESIGNS ARE SHIT AND WHAT THE FUCK HAVE THEY DONE TO THE KLINGONS?!") makes Brexit look like a whispered caress.

    Seriously, you haven't lived until you've got into an argument about nacelle pylons... :)
    I think I’m in denial about the new series :D
    I have a somewhat weird take: I really disliked the first two episodes, but I really like the latter episodes. Although it continues to have serious problems (I want them to bring back Lorca, Stamets is written too whiny, OMIGOD THE KLINGONS) it has good characters (I really like Saru, Tilly and even Michael, and Evil Georgiou is fun) and I hope season 2 turns out better.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,061
    stodge said:

    I notice the Telegraph today (which I buy for my Dad and the General Knowledge crossword, the one being harder work than the other) was banging the drum for tax cuts because Philip Hammond has a £7.5 billion windfall (apparently).

    I actually thought Conservatives believed in sound financial management so reducing the deficit and paying down the debt seem much more sensible than this ludicrous notion of cutting taxes but for some reason the Telegraph believes we should have a little more money together and sod future generations stuck with our debt interest.

    The problem is the Right is as bad as the Left when it comes to economics.

    It's just the dying breath of neoliberalism.

    Taxes need to (and will) rise a bit over the next 10 years, whichever party is in power.
  • HYUFD said:

    If we assume UKIP on 2% that gives Labour a majority of 2.
    Given Survation underestimated the Tory lead by 1% at the general election it most likely still leads to a hung parliament and Labour and SNP government same as all the other polls, though as it is a GMB poll treat with some care
    That's a slur on the UK's top pollster.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688

    stodge said:

    I notice the Telegraph today (which I buy for my Dad and the General Knowledge crossword, the one being harder work than the other) was banging the drum for tax cuts because Philip Hammond has a £7.5 billion windfall (apparently).

    I actually thought Conservatives believed in sound financial management so reducing the deficit and paying down the debt seem much more sensible than this ludicrous notion of cutting taxes but for some reason the Telegraph believes we should have a little more money together and sod future generations stuck with our debt interest.

    The problem is the Right is as bad as the Left when it comes to economics.

    It's just the dying breath of neoliberalism.

    Taxes need to (and will) rise a bit over the next 10 years, whichever party is in power.
    Reducing tax rates can increase tax takes, if done correctly.
  • It's The Orville for me too.

    I enjoyed Discovery, but I'm still trying to work out how it fits in with the TOS timeline.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,820
    Mortimer said:



    It's partly a joke, but seriously, not even the most loyal LDs can be happy with the present situation which sees them getting less publicity than a party which has had god knows how many leaders in the past year.

    It's not all about "publicity" as you put it. It's about the hard graft of working seats, re-building the membership, getting new people out and canvassing.

    It's not glamourous but my perception is people are starting slowly to listen to us again as the memory of Coalition fades - the Party's policy on Brexit remains a problem though I sense some nuance developing from Cable away from slavish adherence to the pre-23/6/16 REMAIN position.

    Asking serious questions about the future economic relationship with the EU is entirely legitimate and I'm yet to be fully convinced we will find as advantageous trade terms outside the EU than as part of the Customs Union. Protectionism or wanting what's best for your own country's industry isn't, I suspect, a wholly American trait.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,867


    The Italy game should have been a pointer...
This discussion has been closed.