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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited March 13 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year

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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,337
    First! Like Mrs May.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,337
    Fascinating! Thank you Mr Meeks & Viewcode.

    You will note that I have no code for swings to the SNP. None was needed. As can be seen from the map, the story was one of carnage for them, with 10% swings in favour of both the Conservatives and Labour quite routine. Labour benefited in the Central Belt while elsewhere the Conservatives dominated in Scotland. The SNP need to work out how to stop the rot.

    Is why some of us don't regard 2017 as an unmitigated disaster for the Tories.....
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 726
    Really good article, liked the map as well.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,051
    Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
    Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,863
    Interesting article, Alastair and well done with the map.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,863
    rkrkrk said:

    Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
    Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.

    I think Kezia Dugdale deserves some of the "credit" for the Scottish results after urging a tactical vote for the Tories against the SNP in certain seats.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 726

    rkrkrk said:

    Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
    Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.

    I think Kezia Dugdale deserves some of the "credit" for the Scottish results after urging a tactical vote for the Tories against the SNP in certain seats.
    Was shocked when I saw that, although I think there would have been Labour tactical votes for the Tories regardless. One of my hopes is those votes will not go to the Tories next time. Whilst I can't see them slipping down to 2015 levels anytime soon I do think 2017 is probably a high point rather than a staging post for the Tories in Scotland.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.

    I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.

    I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,863

    rkrkrk said:

    Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
    Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.

    I think Kezia Dugdale deserves some of the "credit" for the Scottish results after urging a tactical vote for the Tories against the SNP in certain seats.
    Was shocked when I saw that, although I think there would have been Labour tactical votes for the Tories regardless. One of my hopes is those votes will not go to the Tories next time. Whilst I can't see them slipping down to 2015 levels anytime soon I do think 2017 is probably a high point rather than a staging post for the Tories in Scotland.
    I think the fishermen in the North East will be in for a nasty surprise after "strong and stable" caves into the EU.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    Sandpit said:

    Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.

    I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.

    It is a very good article indeed.
    'Brexit will be done' only in the sense that it will almost certainly have happened; in terms of the politics of its effects, it will be very much a live issue, I suspect.
    Will the Tories and Labour have new leaders ? Far from a certainty...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.

    I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.

    It is a very good article indeed.
    'Brexit will be done' only in the sense that it will almost certainly have happened; in terms of the politics of its effects, it will be very much a live issue, I suspect.
    Will the Tories and Labour have new leaders ? Far from a certainty...
    I’m always curious what people who casually write “Brexit will be done” think Brexit will mean.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,518
    Sandpit said:

    Brexit will be done

    It's not going anywhere as a major political issue. Every time a cat gets stuck up a tree it's going to get blamed on Brexit.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,324
    rkrkrk said:

    Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
    Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.

    It's interesting how Ruth Davidson is credited with the Tories performance in Scotland. Don't get me wrong, I think she is a very good politician, but I actually think May's message on Brexit - and Sturgeon's message on Brexit - is what really benefitted the Tories in North East Scotland.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998
    tlg86 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
    Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.

    It's interesting how Ruth Davidson is credited with the Tories performance in Scotland. Don't get me wrong, I think she is a very good politician, but I actually think May's message on Brexit - and Sturgeon's message on Brexit - is what really benefitted the Tories in North East Scotland.
    I think Unionist tactical voting was the dominant factor: hence the swings to whoever was the non-SNP challenger. (Otherwise how do you explain the LD gains of Edinburgh West, and CS&ER, and the two vote miss in Fife NE.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,826
    edited March 13
    Housing is critical in London - not just as a direct driver of voting behaviour in reaction to the crisis, but as an indirect driver of demographic change - giving encouragement to older mainly white people to leave the capital and/or become landlords and the replacement of owner occupation with private rented and multiple occupancy. Coupled with the higher birth rate of most ethnic minority populations, the Tories would be in trouble in London regardless of Brexit, although this certainly compounds their difficulties, introducing a new negative for the young and deterring older graduates and the business sector generally.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998
    Sandpit said:

    Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.

    I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.

    If Brexit is done and is a reasonable success, then I suspect that Mrs May will still be in place.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,998
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Brexit will be done

    It's not going anywhere as a major political issue. Every time a cat gets stuck up a tree it's going to get blamed on Brexit.

    I suspect that - assuming Brexit is a mild positive - there will still be constituencies where it has been a negative. Either because there were EU dependent industries, or because house prices were propped up by (for example) French expat bankers.

    And people will remember losses more than gains.

    For that reason, I suspect Brexit will still - in a number of constituencies - be a hotbutton issue in 2022.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,826
    tlg86 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
    Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.

    It's interesting how Ruth Davidson is credited with the Tories performance in Scotland. Don't get me wrong, I think she is a very good politician, but I actually think May's message on Brexit - and Sturgeon's message on Brexit - is what really benefitted the Tories in North East Scotland.
    Or simply that tactical anti-nat voting overcame tactical anti-Tory voting, at least temporarily.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,023
    OT -- Trump blocks sale of US chip-maker Qualcomm on national security grounds,

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43380893

    Whereas Britain would welcome the loss of its own industry. #Things we could learn from America.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 314
    The third party votes are going to be really hard to work out. The 1990s and 00s saw loads of seats with big third party shares - normally LD but sometimes UKIP (sorry Scotland and Wales I cant work this one out), hoe the 2 main parties target resources is going to be really tough as currently we dont know if there will be a 3rd party challenge like we had up until 2015... I think working out swings/gains and losses based on the 2017 election will be almost impossible as we dont know the vote after the Lab/Con split - VC had better be praying for an uptick or the LDs could be facing real trouble if they have a 3rd bad showing in a row
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,156
    Nigelb said:
    I'm not sure what the alternatives would have been to using oil and petrol over the past 60 years.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,826
    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Brexit will be done

    It's not going anywhere as a major political issue. Every time a cat gets stuck up a tree it's going to get blamed on Brexit.

    I suspect that - assuming Brexit is a mild positive - there will still be constituencies where it has been a negative. Either because there were EU dependent industries, or because house prices were propped up by (for example) French expat bankers.

    And people will remember losses more than gains.

    For that reason, I suspect Brexit will still - in a number of constituencies - be a hotbutton issue in 2022.

    And that is a big assumption hiding in there...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Brexit will be done

    It's not going anywhere as a major political issue. Every time a cat gets stuck up a tree it's going to get blamed on Brexit.

    I suspect that - assuming Brexit is a mild positive - there will still be constituencies where it has been a negative. Either because there were EU dependent industries, or because house prices were propped up by (for example) French expat bankers.

    And people will remember losses more than gains.

    For that reason, I suspect Brexit will still - in a number of constituencies - be a hotbutton issue in 2022.

    The question is whether that number will be 650 or 600.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Brexit will be done

    It's not going anywhere as a major political issue. Every time a cat gets stuck up a tree it's going to get blamed on Brexit.

    Possibly true, but there will be little anyone will be able to do about it, the negotiations having been completed as us having actually left.

    I'd be surprised if Labour will be running a campaign to rejoin the EU, although the Lib Dems might.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    Nigelb said:
    This year's cars look to be a couple of seconds quicker than last year's cars, which is astonishing given the minimal rule changes. We'll find out for certain in 10 days' time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    Today's Spring Statement looks like being a 15 minute damp squib:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43380212
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,738
    tlg86 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
    Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.

    It's interesting how Ruth Davidson is credited with the Tories performance in Scotland. Don't get me wrong, I think she is a very good politician, but I actually think May's message on Brexit - and Sturgeon's message on Brexit - is what really benefitted the Tories in North East Scotland.
    The referendum leave/Tory change link was quite weak.in Scotland. Though I did have a small bet on Banff.
    Gordon was reasonably remain according to Hanretty, to come from 4th there was staggering
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880

    Fascinating! Thank you Mr Meeks & Viewcode.

    You will note that I have no code for swings to the SNP. None was needed. As can be seen from the map, the story was one of carnage for them, with 10% swings in favour of both the Conservatives and Labour quite routine. Labour benefited in the Central Belt while elsewhere the Conservatives dominated in Scotland. The SNP need to work out how to stop the rot.

    Is why some of us don't regard 2017 as an unmitigated disaster for the Tories.....

    The map is startling because it shows what Ruth Davidson achieved in Scotland. Of course these are huge constituencies which very much exaggerate the effect but wow. She saved May's ass because without those gains no viable government would have been possible.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    edited March 13
    Sandpit said:

    Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.

    I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.

    Brexit will be done, but not forgotten. I expect that it will be a damp squib constituting little change apart from modest economic decline. It certainly will not resolve the problems of globalisation that drove it as a movement.

    It will remain an issue though, as rather like the loathing of the Tories in Scotland and industrial areas in England and Wales generated by Thacherism, whole chunks of the electorate will be lost to the Tories for a generation, possibly forever.

    @AlastairMeeks has done some fantastic maps and a great article, and one to be referred back to. It does still seem remarkable that Corbynism took 30% of the vote in places like leafy Harborough or Huntington. This is not just a phenomenon of a few radical students, but rather in true blue Shire England.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,880

    Today's Spring Statement looks like being a 15 minute damp squib:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43380212

    As I said on Sunday he will have something like an additional £16bn to play with beyond what the OBR told him in November. He should certainly bank the majority but it would be crazy not to reduce the pressure on NHS Trusts who spent a lot of extra money dealing with the winter bed crisis and LA budgets squeezed to breaking point by Social Care costs. Both are coming into the new financial year with deficits facing serious wage pressures.

    For £1bn he could probably get the thick end of 20k social houses/flats built by Housing Associations this year or next too. He should do it. The government really has to show it is about more than Brexit (and fighting economic wars with tinpot dictators).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,156
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.

    I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.

    Brexit will be done, but not forgotten. I expect that it will be a damp squib constituting little change apart from modest economic decline. It certainly will not resolve the problems of globalisation that drove it as a movement.

    It will remain an issue though, as rather like the loathing of the Tories in Scotland and industrial areas in England and Wales generated by Thacherism, whole chunks of the electorate will be lost to the Tories for a generation, possibly forever.

    @AlastairMeeks has done some fantastic maps and a great article, and one to be referred back to. It does still seem remarkable that Corbynism took 30% of the vote in places like leafy Harborough or Huntington. This is not just a phenomenon of a few radical students, but rather in true blue Shire England.
    When the two main parties are polling close to 90% in England, you should expect fair-sized Labour votes in such areas, as in the 1950's.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 726
    edited March 13
    ydoethur said:

    With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.

    I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.

    There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,485
    I see Donald Trump has responded overnight to the news about Russia.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201
    The President of France expresses solidarity with the UK, as does the US Secretary of State. Spot the difference?

    Within minutes of Moslem terrorist attacks on the UK President Trump is Tweeting. Days after Russian attacks, nothing. Once again, he’s demonstrating that he’s the most anti-UK president in living memory. It’s amazing what leeway a Churchill bust and the right colour skin can buy you!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694

    Also:
    ttps://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/973444959918575616
    and
    ttps://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/973445840734912514

    Trump, however is keeping his own counsel....
    Hopefully Tillerson has told Trump to keep his mouth shut on this one!

    I do think the possibility of a sporting boycot is increasing though, but it will need a lot of co-ordination among nations if its to be effective.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,076
    Thank you Mr M - very informative. I think you mentioned Brexit once, but you might have got away with it!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    edited March 13

    ydoethur said:

    With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.

    I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.

    There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
    O'Mara yes. Didn't realise Pidcock did. She also of course lost her safe council seat weeks beforehand suggesting her personal qualities were not behind any increase in her vote.

    I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.

    The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.

    That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867

    Thank you Mr M - very informative. I think you mentioned Brexit once, but you might have got away with it!

    Damn. The thread was going so well up to then.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,309
    Fascinating thread map. Interesting to note that we are a largely a nation of big swingers with a strong cluster around the south east Midlands close to Bedford and those pesky LibDems swinging the most.

    Might be worthy of an insightful thread from OGH himself ....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694

    ydoethur said:

    With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.

    I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.

    There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
    Sheffield Hallam could well be a three way marginal next time out. I see the LDs have picked a candidate already, which is a smart move.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    JackW said:

    Fascinating thread map. Interesting to note that we are a largely a nation of big swingers with a strong cluster around the south east Midlands close to Bedford and those pesky LibDems swinging the most.

    Might be worthy of an insightful thread from OGH himself ....

    And impossible to ignore that Britons swing both ways!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201

    I see Donald Trump has responded overnight to the news about Russia.



    Yep - anyone hoping for the kind of US backing of the UK that would have been automatic from any other American president after a Russian attack on British soil that may have had as many as 500 victims will be sorely disappointed. But, hey, the bloke’s put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office and he’s not an uppity African, so all is well.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,867
    Morning all

    Cheltenham - Day 1

    1:30 Summerville boy
    2:10 Petit Mouchoir
    2:50 Coo Star Sivola
    3:30 Buveur D'Air
    4:10 La Bague Au Roi
    4:50 Jury Duty
    5:30 Mister Whitaker
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,309
    Foxy said:

    JackW said:

    Fascinating thread map. Interesting to note that we are a largely a nation of big swingers with a strong cluster around the south east Midlands close to Bedford and those pesky LibDems swinging the most.

    Might be worthy of an insightful thread from OGH himself ....

    And impossible to ignore that Britons swing both ways!
    Medical professionals are well known as being at the forefront of the movement.

    Doctors and nurses playing at doctors and nurses.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,253
    An armed pitch invasion in Greece puts West Ham in perspective!

    Greek Super League suspended after PAOK Salonika president invades pitch with gun - http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43369490

    There is a Russian connection as Savvidas was a member of the Russian Duma. My Greek friends are PAOK supporters and there is now a very heavy Russian influence in the club and around the area of Thessalonika. Most Greeks there are of Anatolian descent, having been resettled there in the 1920's, The Russians are seen as defenders of Greece.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201
    Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,652

    The President of France expresses solidarity with the UK, as does the US Secretary of State. Spot the difference?

    Within minutes of Moslem terrorist attacks on the UK President Trump is Tweeting. Days after Russian attacks, nothing. Once again, he’s demonstrating that he’s the most anti-UK president in living memory. It’s amazing what leeway a Churchill bust and the right colour skin can buy you!

    Nobody cares what colour his skin is, Vince.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    Foxy said:

    An armed pitch invasion in Greece puts West Ham in perspective!

    Greek Super League suspended after PAOK Salonika president invades pitch with gun - http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43369490

    There is a Russian connection as Savvidas was a member of the Russian Duma. My Greek friends are PAOK supporters and there is now a very heavy Russian influence in the club and around the area of Thessalonika. Most Greeks there are of Anatolian descent, having been resettled there in the 1920's, The Russians are seen as defenders of Greece.

    Have you read this article on him?

    https://www.the-american-interest.com/2018/01/05/new-greek-oligarchy/

    If true it's fascinating and not a little worrrying.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    edited March 13

    Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.

    I don't think he would thank you for calling him an African. As he patiently out to the birther movement, he was a natural born American.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 726
    edited March 13
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.

    I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.

    There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
    O'Mara yes. Didn't realise Pidcock did. She also of course lost her safe council seat weeks beforehand suggesting her personal qualities were not behind any increase in her vote.

    I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.

    The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.

    That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.
    I get the feeling with Pidcock the dislike is mainly from those not voting Labour anyway.

    To the original discussion I sort of feel like you've ended up at an argument that sort of agrees with my original point. If O'Mara and Pidcock were not elected for their personal vote but managed to increase the Labour vote share then Labour selecting someone like O'Mara or Pidcock is hardly likely to be a bigger negative than them replacing Skinner with someone else, it'll be a loss whoever but no more for it being someone left wing.

    I think considering recent elections the idea that Labour voters are crying out for those good old centrist politicians rather than these dastardly left wingers is a little unlikely regardless of your personal opinions of left wingers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,867
    edited March 13

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.

    I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.

    There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
    O'Mara yes. Didn't realise Pidcock did. She also of course lost her safe council seat weeks beforehand suggesting her personal qualities were not behind any increase in her vote.

    I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.

    The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.

    That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.
    I get the feeling with Pidcock the dislike is mainly from those not voting Labour anyway.

    To the original discussion I sort of feel like you've ended up at an argument that sort of agrees with my original point. If O'Mara and Pidcock were not elected for their personal vote but managed to increase the Labour vote share then Labour selecting someone like O'Mara or Pidcock is hardly likely to be a bigger negative than them replacing Skinner with someone else, it'll be a loss whoever but no more for it being someone left wing.

    I think considering recent elections the idea that Labour voters are crying out for those good old centrist politicians rather than these dastardly left wingers is a little unlikely regardless of your personal opinions of left wingers.
    It is true personal votes matter less than was once thought. Look at Twickenham.

    But Skinner is a possible exception because he has been there so long and has hammered things around himself to such a degree.

    (I don't think he would thank you for calling him a centrist either. Indeed the whole premise of my argument was that Labour would put a young left winger in to replace him as candidate, which is why it matters that with rare exceptions they come across as patronising and lazy idiots.)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,337

    Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.

    You're the one obsessing about Obama's father's origins - Obama himself was American (unless you're a birther, of course...)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,036
    ydoethur said:

    Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.

    I don't think he would thank you for calling him an African. As he patiently out to the birther movement, he was a natural born American.
    Obama is, like the vast majority of residents of the United States of America, descended from immigrants. Some recent, others not so. Some voluntary, some ‘unwilling'.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: still no sign of spreads up. I may wait a few days before deciding whether to put up a final pre-season ramble.

    On-topic: it's remarkable what the worst campaign in modern British political history and the media deciding "Will you keep your allotment?" is an appropriate line of questioning can do for public opinion.

    The Conservatives need to be wary they don't repeat the mistake of thinking they simply need to turn up to win. Even a half-decent campaign would've given them a solid working majority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    ydoethur said:

    Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.

    I don't think he would thank you for calling him an African. As he patiently out to the birther movement, he was a natural born American.
    Some inverted commas missing, I think.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201

    Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.

    You're the one obsessing about Obama's father's origins - Obama himself was American (unless you're a birther, of course...)

    Tell that to our foreign secretary

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-suggests-part-kenyan-obama-may-have-an-ancestral-dislike-of-britain-a6995826.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,036
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.

    I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.

    There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
    I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.

    The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.

    That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.
    To the original discussion I sort of feel like you've ended up at an argument that sort of agrees with my original point. If O'Mara and Pidcock were not elected for their personal vote but managed to increase the Labour vote share then Labour selecting someone like O'Mara or Pidcock is hardly likely to be a bigger negative than them replacing Skinner with someone else, it'll be a loss whoever but no more for it being someone left wing.

    I think considering recent elections the idea that Labour voters are crying out for those good old centrist politicians rather than these dastardly left wingers is a little unlikely regardless of your personal opinions of left wingers.
    It is true personal votes matter less than was once thought. Look at Twickenham.

    But Skinner is a possible exception because he has been there so long and has hammered things around himself to such a degree.

    (I don't think he would thank you for calling him a centrist either. Indeed the whole premise of my argument was that Labour would put a young left winger in to replace him as candidate, which is why it matters that with rare exceptions they come across as patronising and lazy idiots.)
    Am I right in thinking that the demographics in Bolsover are changing. After all, there are no mines there any more, so any ‘miners’ are former or retired.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,502
    edited March 13
    rcs1000 said:
    Also a survey of economists on the proposition "imposing new US tariffs on steel and aluminum will improve Americans’ welfare": http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/steel-and-aluminum-tariffs

    Economists split between "disagree" and "disagree strongly".

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,492
    edited March 13
    I have swung to the "I wont vote Tory again until they stop cutting benefits for those who actually need it, (especially the disabled)" party
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    Very long, and rather interesting New Yorker article on Reddit and the politics of social media:

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/03/19/reddit-and-the-struggle-to-detoxify-the-internet
    “Does free speech mean literally anyone can say anything at any time?” Tidwell continued. “Or is it actually more conducive to the free exchange of ideas if we create a platform where women and people of color can say what they want without thousands of people screaming, ‘Fuck you, light yourself on fire, I know where you live’? If your entire answer to that very difficult question is ‘Free speech,’ then, I’m sorry, that tells me that you’re not really paying attention.”...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,535
    The clearest cut cases last time for a personal vote that I spotted while putting this map together were Rob Marris in Wolverhampton South West and Paul Scully in Sutton & Cheam. Mhairi Black also relatively bucked the trend sharply.

    Most other meaningful swings could be largely explained through other means.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,652

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.

    I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.

    There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
    I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.

    The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.

    That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.
    To the original discussion I sort of feel like you've ended up at an argument that sort of agrees with my original point. If O'Mara and Pidcock were not elected for their personal vote but managed to increase the Labour vote share then Labour selecting someone like O'Mara or Pidcock is hardly likely to be a bigger negative than them replacing Skinner with someone else, it'll be a loss whoever but no more for it being someone left wing.

    I think considering recent elections the idea that Labour voters are crying out for those good old centrist politicians rather than these dastardly left wingers is a little unlikely regardless of your personal opinions of left wingers.
    It is true personal votes matter less than was once thought. Look at Twickenham.

    But Skinner is a possible exception because he has been there so long and has hammered things around himself to such a degree.

    (I don't think he would thank you for calling him a centrist either. Indeed the whole premise of my argument was that Labour would put a young left winger in to replace him as candidate, which is why it matters that with rare exceptions they come across as patronising and lazy idiots.)
    Am I right in thinking that the demographics in Bolsover are changing. After all, there are no mines there any more, so any ‘miners’ are former or retired.
    I thought they couldn't vote anyway?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,463
    Foxy said:

    JackW said:

    Fascinating thread map. Interesting to note that we are a largely a nation of big swingers with a strong cluster around the south east Midlands close to Bedford and those pesky LibDems swinging the most.

    Might be worthy of an insightful thread from OGH himself ....

    And impossible to ignore that Britons swing both ways!
    Anyone who has followed our test team knows that is seldom true.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201
    ‪We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?‬
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,378
    rkrkrk said:

    Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
    Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.

    I live there and so was I. I'll say this, the local labour groups here have become much more active and effective since Corbyn took over. Here, at least, the Corbynite influx have put the hours in and been useful. They are now second in many areas they used to be 4th or worse.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,309
    Latest polling on the PA 18th District Special Election

    Lamb (D) 51 .. Saccone (R) 45

    Monmouth Uni. Sample 503

    https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_031218/
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 4,920
    The METTHs, the METTHs, won't someone think of the METTHs?!?

    Good work on the map, thanks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611
    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
    Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.

    I live there and so was I. I'll say this, the local labour groups here have become much more active and effective since Corbyn took over. Here, at least, the Corbynite influx have put the hours in and been useful. They are now second in many areas they used to be 4th or worse.
    The LibDem vote died on its arse though in the SW. I suspect some people have been LibDem voters for so long, they'd forgotten whether they were always LibDem, or just lent their Labour vote to them. But we found quite a few newly loud and proud Labour in Torbay. Still third, but they have gone from 20% behind the LibDems to under 7%
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,023

    ydoethur said:

    Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.

    I don't think he would thank you for calling him an African. As he patiently out to the birther movement, he was a natural born American.
    Obama is, like the vast majority of residents of the United States of America, descended from immigrants. Some recent, others not so. Some voluntary, some ‘unwilling'.
    The complaint about Obama's background from some groups was that it was more American Dream than Black Struggle.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,611



    Am I right in thinking that the demographics in Bolsover are changing. After all, there are no mines there any more, so any ‘miners’ are former or retired.

    The UK's last deep coal mine - Kellingly Colliery - was capped off in 2016. So apart from open cast, all miners are now former or retired. But given the pneumoconiosis and other mining-related health issues, I suspect many former miners are now underground permanently. A dying breed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    Excluding Scotland the biggest swing to Labour was in London, full of students and renters and pro Remain and the Midlands saw the biggest swing to the Tories with plenty of lower middle class and working class Brexiteers there
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Incidentally, it seems that Lauren Southern was barred from the UK for hate speech, specifically sharing leaflets that proclaimed Allah was gay.

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited March 13



    Am I right in thinking that the demographics in Bolsover are changing. After all, there are no mines there any more, so any ‘miners’ are former or retired.

    The UK's last deep coal mine - Kellingly Colliery - was capped off in 2016. So apart from open cast, all miners are now former or retired. But given the pneumoconiosis and other mining-related health issues, I suspect many former miners are now underground permanently. A dying breed.
    I grew up in the South Staffs coalfield. Our miners didn't retire for long - if they even made retirement. Of course, not all those in the mining industry were underground workers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    edited March 13

    ‪We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?‬

    This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?

    Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,449

    The President of France expresses solidarity with the UK, as does the US Secretary of State. Spot the difference?

    Within minutes of Moslem terrorist attacks on the UK President Trump is Tweeting. Days after Russian attacks, nothing. Once again, he’s demonstrating that he’s the most anti-UK president in living memory. It’s amazing what leeway a Churchill bust and the right colour skin can buy you!

    Surely Trump is only waiting for a statement from Britain First, his go to source for matters Brit?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. Divvie, he might be waiting a while. Aren't the leaders currently incarcerated?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544

    I see Donald Trump has responded overnight to the news about Russia.



    Yep - anyone hoping for the kind of US backing of the UK that would have been automatic from any other American president after a Russian attack on British soil that may have had as many as 500 victims will be sorely disappointed. But, hey, the bloke’s put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office and he’s not an uppity African, so all is well.

    The US Secretary of State from the Trump administration strongly condemned the Russian attack this morning.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,553
    John_M said:



    Am I right in thinking that the demographics in Bolsover are changing. After all, there are no mines there any more, so any ‘miners’ are former or retired.

    The UK's last deep coal mine - Kellingly Colliery - was capped off in 2016. So apart from open cast, all miners are now former or retired. But given the pneumoconiosis and other mining-related health issues, I suspect many former miners are now underground permanently. A dying breed.
    I grew up in the South Staffs coalfield. Our miners didn't retire for long - if they even made retirement. Of course, not all those in the mining industry were underground workers.
    Most of the ones I knew from the Notts and Yorkshire coalfields were aboveground workers. I did know the average ratio for aboveground to belowground workers, but I've forgotten it.

    I knew three ex-miners particularly well. Two were told at school there was little point in teaching them, as they'd end up in the mine (this is late 1970s). They both became digger drivers on the surface.

    The third is a much more interesting case. He used the opportunity to get trained in everything he could at the mine, and then when the closures came, he had lots of transferrable skills in everything from railway maintenance to machinery and excavator working and maintenance.

    Guess which one did rather well in life, and which two have spent half their adult lives on the sick? All three are very nice men, but two were utterly let down by the system.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544

    Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.

    Trump has exempted Australian steel from tariffs, he may do the same for the UK.

    It is Mexican, Canadian, Chinese and EU steel he is focused on
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201
    HYUFD said:

    ‪We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?‬

    This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?

    Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries

    Yep, like Putin Trump backed Brexit. Funny that. As you point out, putting a bust of Churchill in the Oval Office has bought an awful lot of leeway for a US president who imposes trade sanctions on the UK and remains silent when the Russians launch an attack on British soil that may have affected up to 500 people and left a number in critical condition.

  • felixfelix Posts: 7,431

    ‪We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?‬

    Perhaps you could remind us of the comments of Frau Merkel in your review?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,553

    HYUFD said:

    ‪We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?‬

    This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?

    Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries

    Yep, like Putin Trump backed Brexit. Funny that. As you point out, putting a bust of Churchill in the Oval Office has bought an awful lot of leeway for a US president who imposes trade sanctions on the UK and remains silent when the Russians launch an attack on British soil that may have affected up to 500 people and left a number in critical condition.
    Good post.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,449
    edited March 13

    Mr. Divvie, he might be waiting a while. Aren't the leaders currently incarcerated?

    A slick operation like BF is bound to have bright sparks ready to take up the baton. Or perhaps they can smuggle out a message from whichever UK equivalent of Landsberg the martyrs are held in.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,694
    HYUFD said:

    Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.

    Trump has exempted Australian steel from tariffs, he may do the same for the UK.

    It is Mexican, Canadian, Chinese and EU steel he is focused on
    If he exempts the UK from steel tariffs the EU are going to take him to the WTO for discrimination. Popcorn time!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544

    HYUFD said:

    ‪We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?‬

    This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?

    Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries

    Yep, like Putin Trump backed Brexit. Funny that. As you point out, putting a bust of Churchill in the Oval Office has bought an awful lot of leeway for a US president who imposes trade sanctions on the UK and remains silent when the Russians launch an attack on British soil that may have affected up to 500 people and left a number in critical condition.

    Has Putin offered us a trade deal like Trump? No. Putin also backed Corbyn and Tsipras.

    It is also not yet certain we will get tariffs beyond those we already face on steel exports to the US, it is Mexican and Brazilian and Chinese and EU imports Trump is focused on reducing.

    As stated the Secretary of State of the Trump administration strongly condemned the Russian attack this morning and promised the UK the administration's full support.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,483
    Mr. HYUFD, hmm. The UK is in the EU, though. And currently in the customs union. Is it possible for separate tariffs to be applied to EU countries?

    Mr. Divvie, sparks, perhaps. Not so sure about the bright part.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.

    Trump has exempted Australian steel from tariffs, he may do the same for the UK.

    It is Mexican, Canadian, Chinese and EU steel he is focused on
    If he exempts the UK from steel tariffs the EU are going to take him to the WTO for discrimination. Popcorn time!
    Perhaps but that would seal the fact he is not anti British
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,742
    HYUFD said:

    Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.

    Trump has exempted Australian steel from tariffs, he may do the same for the UK.

    It is Mexican, Canadian, Chinese and EU steel he is focused on
    That looks incorrect.
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will start in 15 days with initial exemptions for Canada and Mexico

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tariffs/trumps-steel-aluminum-tariffs-exempt-canada-mexico-idUSKCN1GK2W6
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,544

    HYUFD said:

    Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.

    Trump has exempted Australian steel from tariffs, he may do the same for the UK.

    It is Mexican, Canadian, Chinese and EU steel he is focused on
    That looks incorrect.
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will start in 15 days with initial exemptions for Canada and Mexico

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tariffs/trumps-steel-aluminum-tariffs-exempt-canada-mexico-idUSKCN1GK2W6
    Only because he has said he wants to redraft NAFTA first. If not they will also gave tariffs, hence the words 'initial exemptions'
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,201
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ‪We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?‬

    This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?

    Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries

    Yep, like Putin Trump backed Brexit. Funny that. As you point out, putting a bust of Churchill in the Oval Office has bought an awful lot of leeway for a US president who imposes trade sanctions on the UK and remains silent when the Russians launch an attack on British soil that may have affected up to 500 people and left a number in critical condition.

    Has Putin offered us a trade deal like Trump? No. Putin also backed Corbyn and Tsipras.

    It is also not yet certain we will get tariffs beyond those we already face on steel exports to the US, it is Mexican and Brazilian and Chinese and EU imports Trump is focused on reducing.

    As stated the Secretary of State of the Trump administration strongly condemned the Russian attack this morning and promised the UK the administration's full support.

    What trade deal has Trump offered us?

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 726
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    O'Mara yes. Didn't realise Pidcock did. She also of course lost her safe council seat weeks beforehand suggesting her personal qualities were not behind any increase in her vote.

    I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.

    The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.

    That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.
    I get the feeling with Pidcock the dislike is mainly from those not voting Labour anyway.

    To the original discussion I sort of feel like you've ended up at an argument that sort of agrees with my original point. If O'Mara and Pidcock were not elected for their personal vote but managed to increase the Labour vote share then Labour selecting someone like O'Mara or Pidcock is hardly likely to be a bigger negative than them replacing Skinner with someone else, it'll be a loss whoever but no more for it being someone left wing.

    I think considering recent elections the idea that Labour voters are crying out for those good old centrist politicians rather than these dastardly left wingers is a little unlikely regardless of your personal opinions of left wingers.
    It is true personal votes matter less than was once thought. Look at Twickenham.

    But Skinner is a possible exception because he has been there so long and has hammered things around himself to such a degree.

    (I don't think he would thank you for calling him a centrist either. Indeed the whole premise of my argument was that Labour would put a young left winger in to replace him as candidate, which is why it matters that with rare exceptions they come across as patronising and lazy idiots.)
    I was rejecting the idea that centrists look any better to the electorate (if anything worse) than left wingers rather than calling Skinner himself a centrist.

    Basically to go back to your original argument Labour will do no worse (they'll actually do better) replacing Skinner with a left winger than a centrist when you consider what the electorate make of the failures of those politics.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 726
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ‪We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?‬

    This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?

    Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries

    Yep, like Putin Trump backed Brexit. Funny that. As you point out, putting a bust of Churchill in the Oval Office has bought an awful lot of leeway for a US president who imposes trade sanctions on the UK and remains silent when the Russians launch an attack on British soil that may have affected up to 500 people and left a number in critical condition.

    Has Putin offered us a trade deal like Trump? No. Putin also backed Corbyn and Tsipras.

    It is also not yet certain we will get tariffs beyond those we already face on steel exports to the US, it is Mexican and Brazilian and Chinese and EU imports Trump is focused on reducing.

    As stated the Secretary of State of the Trump administration strongly condemned the Russian attack this morning and promised the UK the administration's full support.
    Does he?

This discussion has been closed.