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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,953
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:


    To be fair, I don’t think there are many Trumpers on here.

    Are there any? I mean, I'm prepared to give Trump a chance to see how his approach on North Korea plays out, because at least it seems to be getting more traction than 8 years of Obama. But its a huge leap from that to saying I'm a Trumper. I find virtually every other aspect of his existence just plain objectionable.

    Brexit does not owe its existence to President Donald Trump. It may owe much more to the tin-eared efforts of "back of the queue" Obama - although All Out War suggests that George Osborne may have had a hand in that little episode.....

    Trump is meeting up with the guy who had his half brother murdered with nerve gas in Indonesia just last year, in an airport as I recall. Far from condemning such acts, he seems to not be bothered.
    OR... he's trying to rein North Korea back into civilized socieity, so that kinda shit ends.
    So, talking to Korean nerve gas murderers is fine and dandy, but we should shun Russian ones?
    I'm sure we'd all be happy for Putin and Trump to sit down and talk about the end of nuclear weapons..... Better add nerve gases into the mix too.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. P, yeah. Because Litvinenko sure wasn't murdered a decade before had the referendum, and nine years ago before it was even in a manifesto.

    As for Ireland, that remains to be seen. It might be easier of Varadkar hadn't cancelled the co-operative work that was happening when Kenny was in charge, putting together a joint approach of electronically pre-registered manifests.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Stoke Man will be down the voting booth excited to vote Lib Dem faster than you can say Xenophobe Northerner who needs to check their white privilege....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:
    I fear there's going to be some flaking of snow in response to that tweet. Anyone who suggests that breaking up a longstanding and deep alliance might have in some way strengthened the shared opponents of the members of that alliance gets a very shrill reaction.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Scott_P said:
    I fear there's going to be some flaking of snow in response to that tweet. Anyone who suggests that breaking up a longstanding and deep alliance might have in some way strengthened the shared opponents of the members of that alliance gets a very shrill reaction.
    Since when was the EU an alliance? How would Irish neutrality happen if it were?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Scott_P said:
    I fear there's going to be some flaking of snow in response to that tweet. Anyone who suggests that breaking up a longstanding and deep alliance might have in some way strengthened the shared opponents of the members of that alliance gets a very shrill reaction.
    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/819289068253179904
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,953
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Urquhart, it's about the idea of the Greatness of Russia, tweaking opponents' noses. Cyberwarfare, the odd assassination, military moves in the Middle East. He's an adept strategist, not entirely dissimilar to Septimius Severus.

    Mr. Walker, ah. So it destroys sentiment and goodwill if we have serious concerns over many years about the EU, and these are not addressed by an attempted negotiation, and then vote to leave, but the EU refusing to take our concerns seriously (or democracy in other countries, vis-a-vis Lisbon/the Constitution) is absolutely fine. Rightyho.

    I don’t think you’re getting the point.
    Brexit seems to be inherently about telling our allies to get stuffed. And even if it wasn’t, that’s the way Johnson et al have been playing it - egged on by their baying supporters in the press.

    As for the rest, you seem to be responding to a point I haven’t made, although It’s difficult to tell. But if you’re suggesting that the EU has somehow trampled all over a pleading UK government, then you are painting a narrative of victimisation which I don’t think is accurate.
    If anyone is trying to tell our allies to 'get stuffed' it is diehard Remainers who condemn the President of the US whatever he does and who think trade deals with Australia and New Zealand and India etc will be without consequence.

    May has made quite clear she wants a strong relationship with the EU and a strong EU regardless of Brexit
    I see we have found the one PB Trumper.
    Plato says Hi!

    The fact unlike diehard Remainers I want a solid relationship with the US administration does not make me a Trumper but I am not anti Trump either
    That would be the Plato many mocked when she said that the polling was not showing the complete picture and Trump was going to win? That Plato?
    I don't think Plato did predict a Trump win, though she was a blatent fangirl. On the day before the POTUS election she was pressed to make a forecast, but declined.
    She did point out to those that cared to look a lot of sites that indicated the depth of anger about the US system - and that Trump resonated with that anger. From memory, late on there was discussion (polling?) about how Hillary was getting it wrong in the northern States that won it for Trump.
  • MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 48

    MTimT2 said:

    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
    Is that a quote from 1984? Seems like a classic example of doublespeak. Translation: A healthy democracy is able to respond to the government ignoring the ballot box.
    The remit of the ballot box doesn't extend to 27 of our neighbours. The electorate were falsely told we held all the cards, and will need to hold those to account who misled them.
    What have 27 neighbours, or 200 neighbours for that matter, got to do with our ballot box? There was plenty of misleading and lying on both sides of the argument, and the electorate has spoken since the referendum. Democracy has done its work and will continue to do so until governments, or elites, start taking it upon themselves to decide which ballot box results to respect and which not.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The timeline may not quite support the story - but its an open goal.....

    https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/973587977405390848
  • Breaking news

    Russian exile and friend of late obigarch Boris Berezovsky found dead at his London home late on Monday night. Discovered on bathroom floor with scarf round his neck. Coroner says impossible to establish whether he was killed or committed suicide.

    Coincidence or connected to Salisbury incident
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    Good news....

    A major centre of homeopathy will no longer be able to spend NHS money on the controversial practice.
    The Royal London Hospital for Integrated Medicine - formerly the Royal London Homeopathic Hospital - will stop providing NHS-funded homeopathic remedies in April.

    Excellent. At a time when rationality seems to have lost serious ground to emotion this is a very positive step.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Mark, Clinton refused to send more resources to the northern states because she listened to those who argued it'd look like they were worried about losing them. Her husband wisely counselled otherwise, but he didn't win that argument.

    This site is very useful, but it was more so when we had Miss Plato here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    I fear there's going to be some flaking of snow in response to that tweet. Anyone who suggests that breaking up a longstanding and deep alliance might have in some way strengthened the shared opponents of the members of that alliance gets a very shrill reaction.
    Since when was the EU an alliance? How would Irish neutrality happen if it were?
    Ireland has joined Pesco.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ireland-joins-pesco-defence-pact-after-dáil-vote-1.3327831
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    I fear there's going to be some flaking of snow in response to that tweet. Anyone who suggests that breaking up a longstanding and deep alliance might have in some way strengthened the shared opponents of the members of that alliance gets a very shrill reaction.
    Since when was the EU an alliance? How would Irish neutrality happen if it were?
    The EU could take collective economic action against Russia. It is unlikely to at a time when Britain has done its level best to incinerate all influence with its nearest neighbours.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    I fear there's going to be some flaking of snow in response to that tweet. Anyone who suggests that breaking up a longstanding and deep alliance might have in some way strengthened the shared opponents of the members of that alliance gets a very shrill reaction.
    Since when was the EU an alliance? How would Irish neutrality happen if it were?
    Think he's getting mixed up with NATO.
  • Tim Farron calling for World Cup boycott
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    MTimT2 said:

    MTimT2 said:

    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
    Is that a quote from 1984? Seems like a classic example of doublespeak. Translation: A healthy democracy is able to respond to the government ignoring the ballot box.
    The remit of the ballot box doesn't extend to 27 of our neighbours. The electorate were falsely told we held all the cards, and will need to hold those to account who misled them.
    What have 27 neighbours, or 200 neighbours for that matter, got to do with our ballot box? There was plenty of misleading and lying on both sides of the argument, and the electorate has spoken since the referendum. Democracy has done its work and will continue to do so until governments, or elites, start taking it upon themselves to decide which ballot box results to respect and which not.
    We are currently negotiating an exit deal under the Article 50 process. Democracy has been respected, and will be respected when people have their say on the outcome.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,953
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Urquhart, it's about the idea of the Greatness of Russia, tweaking opponents' noses. Cyberwarfare, the odd assassination, military moves in the Middle East. He's an adept strategist, not entirely dissimilar to Septimius Severus.

    Mr. Walker, ah. So it destroys sentiment and goodwill if we have serious concerns over many years about the EU, and these are not addressed by an attempted negotiation, and then vote to leave, but the EU refusing to take our concerns seriously (or democracy in other countries, vis-a-vis Lisbon/the Constitution) is absolutely fine. Rightyho.

    I don’t think you’re getting the point.
    Brexit seems to be inherently about telling our allies to get stuffed. And even if it wasn’t, that’s the way Johnson et al have been playing it - egged on by their baying supporters in the press.

    As for the rest, you seem to be responding to a point I haven’t made, although It’s difficult to tell. But if you’re suggesting that the EU has somehow trampled all over a pleading UK government, then you are painting a narrative of victimisation which I don’t think is accurate.
    If anyone is trying to tell our allies to 'get stuffed' it is diehard Remainers who condemn the President of the US whatever he does and who think trade deals with Australia and New Zealand and India etc will be without consequence.

    May has made quite clear she wants a strong relationship with the EU and a strong EU regardless of Brexit
    I see we have found the one PB Trumper.
    Plato says Hi!

    The fact unlike diehard Remainers I want a solid relationship with the US administration does not make me a Trumper but I am not anti Trump either
    That would be the Plato many mocked when she said that the polling was not showing the complete picture and Trump was going to win? That Plato?
    I don't think Plato did predict a Trump win, though she was a blatent fangirl. On the day before the POTUS election she was pressed to make a forecast, but declined.
    That might simply be because Trump/Clinton was "too close to call"? So close that even as the first votes were coming in, Trump's people were saying that he "needed a miracle".......

    God moves in mysterious ways.
  • Chris Pine is another one of my humongous man crushes.

    https://twitter.com/seanbamforth/status/973338196133273600
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    MTimT2 said:

    MTimT2 said:

    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
    Is that a quote from 1984? Seems like a classic example of doublespeak. Translation: A healthy democracy is able to respond to the government ignoring the ballot box.
    The remit of the ballot box doesn't extend to 27 of our neighbours. The electorate were falsely told we held all the cards, and will need to hold those to account who misled them.
    What have 27 neighbours, or 200 neighbours for that matter, got to do with our ballot box? There was plenty of misleading and lying on both sides of the argument, and the electorate has spoken since the referendum. Democracy has done its work and will continue to do so until governments, or elites, start taking it upon themselves to decide which ballot box results to respect and which not.
    Williamglenn has never respected the ballot box. He opposes everything it stands for.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited March 2018

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    I don’t think you’re getting the point.
    Brexit seems to be inherently about telling our allies to get stuffed. And even if it wasn’t, that’s the way Johnson et al have been playing it - egged on by their baying supporters in the press.

    As for the rest, you seem to be responding to a point I haven’t made, although It’s difficult to tell. But if you’re suggesting that the EU has somehow trampled all over a pleading UK government, then you are painting a narrative of victimisation which I don’t think is accurate.

    If anyone is trying to tell our allies to 'get stuffed' it is diehard Remainers who condemn the President of the US whatever he does and who think trade deals with Australia and New Zealand and India etc will be without consequence.

    May has made quite clear she wants a strong relationship with the EU and a strong EU regardless of Brexit
    I see we have found the one PB Trumper.
    Plato says Hi!

    The fact unlike diehard Remainers I want a solid relationship with the US administration does not make me a Trumper but I am not anti Trump either
    That would be the Plato many mocked when she said that the polling was not showing the complete picture and Trump was going to win? That Plato?
    I don't think Plato did predict a Trump win, though she was a blatent fangirl. On the day before the POTUS election she was pressed to make a forecast, but declined.
    She did point out to those that cared to look a lot of sites that indicated the depth of anger about the US system - and that Trump resonated with that anger. From memory, late on there was discussion (polling?) about how Hillary was getting it wrong in the northern States that won it for Trump.
    I'm not sure that "some websites show angry people exist" is particularly perspicacious.

    I suspect posting hundreds of times across several websites, daily, broken only by feeding an army of cats, led to an inevitable decline in output 'quality'. And that's putting it as kindly as I can. Alistair's memorable quote put it much better, and more pithily.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    ‘TOO SICK TO FACE INVESTIGATION’ VAZ ATTENDS TWO DANCE FESTIVALS IN ONE WEEK

    https://order-order.com/2018/03/13/sick-face-investigation-vaz-attends-two-dance-festivals-one-week/

    Wrong'un...
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    She did point out to those that cared to look a lot of sites that indicated the depth of anger about the US system - and that Trump resonated with that anger. From memory, late on there was discussion (polling?) about how Hillary was getting it wrong in the northern States that won it for Trump.

    That New Yorker article about reddit is full of stuff Plato was telling us about two years ago. In her way she was more aware of what was happening in US politics at the time than most of the pundits out there.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    Scott_P said:
    I fear there's going to be some flaking of snow in response to that tweet. Anyone who suggests that breaking up a longstanding and deep alliance might have in some way strengthened the shared opponents of the members of that alliance gets a very shrill reaction.
    It is of course bullshit as is so much Scott posts and you agree with.

    The regime that murdered Alexander Litvinenko in London needed no emboldening and Brexit has made not a blind bit of difference to their actions.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited March 2018
    MTimT2 said:

    What have 27 neighbours, or 200 neighbours for that matter, got to do with our ballot box?

    The mindset of planting dense leylandii hedges without concern for the neighbours with whom you've got on well with for decades.
  • MTimT2 said:

    MTimT2 said:

    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
    Is that a quote from 1984? Seems like a classic example of doublespeak. Translation: A healthy democracy is able to respond to the government ignoring the ballot box.
    The remit of the ballot box doesn't extend to 27 of our neighbours. The electorate were falsely told we held all the cards, and will need to hold those to account who misled them.
    What have 27 neighbours, or 200 neighbours for that matter, got to do with our ballot box? There was plenty of misleading and lying on both sides of the argument, and the electorate has spoken since the referendum. Democracy has done its work and will continue to do so until governments, or elites, start taking it upon themselves to decide which ballot box results to respect and which not.
    Williamglenn has never respected the ballot box. He opposes everything it stands for.
    I think William is riffing David Davis.

    "If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,953
    glw said:

    She did point out to those that cared to look a lot of sites that indicated the depth of anger about the US system - and that Trump resonated with that anger. From memory, late on there was discussion (polling?) about how Hillary was getting it wrong in the northern States that won it for Trump.

    That New Yorker article about reddit is full of stuff Plato was telling us about two years ago. In her way she was more aware of what was happening in US politics at the time than most of the pundits out there.

    Strange how people feel the need to get all shitty about her role here in the 2016 Presidential election. You didn't have to read her links. You didn't have to bet on the basis of it.

    But if you did......
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    Danny565 said:

    FF43 said:

    Really well done map, Alastair and Viewcode. We can see:

    - Collapse of the UK vote in England and SNP vote in Scotland.
    - Most seats in Scotland saw big swings to Labour or Conservative
    - Seats in England mostly saw smaller swings to Labour or Conservative.

    My guess is that tactical voting was stronger in Scotland than in England, where I suggest there was movement to BOTH Conservative and Labour.

    And on the other topic, Trump sacked Tillerson AFTER he showed support for the UK over Russian sponsored acts of terrorism (lets call it what it was). Correlation does not necessarily mean causation blah blah.

    I think there really must have been a MASSIVE transfer of Labour votes over to the Tories in Scotland (compensated for by Labour gaining back a tranche of SNP voters).

    Ochil & South Perthshire is one of the all-time biggest Lab->Con swings of any election in any constituency ever, bigger even than most of the swings in Labour's landslide defeats.
    Tory-Leave correlation 1.57x + 45.4, R^2 = 0.627 (The Tory vote starts to increase at 45.4% leave+) (England & Wales). This breaks down in Scotland.
    There is no Lab-Leave or remain correlation.
    Conclusion - The Tory vote increase correlates strongly with leave.


    Lab-Turnout increase correlation: 0.88x + 3626, r^2 = 0.523 (The correlation with Lab non voters is higher than with minor parties, the Green-Lab relationship is actually particularly weak !) (Includes Scotland). Underperformance from Lab here is present in Twickenham, East Devon, Brighton - basically where there is a superstrong non Tory opposition party. This also explains Lab's apprent poor performance in Waveney, the turnout there simply isn't increase very much. There is also underperformance in Labour Leave heartlands.
    Conclusion, Corbyn got out around 2 million non GE 2015 voters by my reckoning. BUT there is more than likely a higher direct Tory -> Labour swing than the figures suggest.
    (1) and (2) suggest basically that the Tories DID get most of the kippers, then lost some of their remain flank to Labour.


    Turnout is down in Scotland almost uniformly, 57 out of the first 58 turnout down seats are Scottish. Conclusion - 2015 SNP voters did not switch, they simply stayed home.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    DavidL said:

    Good news....

    A major centre of homeopathy will no longer be able to spend NHS money on the controversial practice.
    The Royal London Hospital for Integrated Medicine - formerly the Royal London Homeopathic Hospital - will stop providing NHS-funded homeopathic remedies in April.

    Excellent. At a time when rationality seems to have lost serious ground to emotion this is a very positive step.
    Good grief - tomorrow we'll be demanding that politicians demand evidence to support their policies.

    Off topic - men over 40, get yourself to the doctor for a checkup

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/13/prostate-cancer-happy-diagnosis-operation
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    MTimT2 said:

    MTimT2 said:

    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
    Is that a quote from 1984? Seems like a classic example of doublespeak. Translation: A healthy democracy is able to respond to the government ignoring the ballot box.
    The remit of the ballot box doesn't extend to 27 of our neighbours. The electorate were falsely told we held all the cards, and will need to hold those to account who misled them.
    What have 27 neighbours, or 200 neighbours for that matter, got to do with our ballot box? There was plenty of misleading and lying on both sides of the argument, and the electorate has spoken since the referendum. Democracy has done its work and will continue to do so until governments, or elites, start taking it upon themselves to decide which ballot box results to respect and which not.
    Williamglenn has never respected the ballot box. He opposes everything it stands for.
    I think William is riffing David Davis.

    "If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy."
    Nope. He opposes the very basis of democracy which is a viable Demos. It is what underpins his opposition to nation states and belief in vesting power in supranational organisations.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Scott_P said:
    In my view, too early to call Ireland.
    But IFS busy tweeting how badly the economy has performed since Q2 2016 is more grist to this Remainer’s mill.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,953
    Anorak said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    I don’t think you’re getting the point.
    Brexit seems to be inherently about telling our allies to get stuffed. And even if it wasn’t, that’s the way Johnson et al have been playing it - egged on by their baying supporters in the press.

    As for the rest, you seem to be responding to a point I haven’t made, although It’s difficult to tell. But if you’re suggesting that the EU has somehow trampled all over a pleading UK government, then you are painting a narrative of victimisation which I don’t think is accurate.

    If anyone is trying to tell our allies to 'get stuffed' it is diehard Remainers who condemn the President of the US whatever he does and who think trade deals with Australia and New Zealand and India etc will be without consequence.

    May has made quite clear she wants a strong relationship with the EU and a strong EU regardless of Brexit
    I see we have found the one PB Trumper.
    Plato says Hi!

    The fact unlike diehard Remainers I want a solid relationship with the US administration does not make me a Trumper but I am not anti Trump either
    That would be the Plato many mocked when she said that the polling was not showing the complete picture and Trump was going to win? That Plato?
    I don't think Plato did predict a Trump win, though she was a blatent fangirl. On the day before the POTUS election she was pressed to make a forecast, but declined.
    She did point out to those that cared to look a lot of sites that indicated the depth of anger about the US system - and that Trump resonated with that anger. From memory, late on there was discussion (polling?) about how Hillary was getting it wrong in the northern States that won it for Trump.
    I'm not sure that "some websites show angry people exist" is particularly perspicacious.

    I suspect posting hundreds of times across several websites, daily, broken only by feeding an army of cats, led to an inevitable decline in output 'quality'. And that's putting it as kindly as I can. Alistair's memorable quote put it much better, and more pithily.
    But, you see, posting hundreds of times from hundreds of websites MIGHT just look perspicacious to those who weren't wedded to the idea that Hillary just had to win...

    Hey, maybe you bet on Trump. Maybe you made a killing. If so, perhaps be a little more gracious about her contribution.

    Maybe you bet on Hillary. If so, well, you should have paid more attention....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    MTimT2 said:

    MTimT2 said:

    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
    Is that a quote from 1984? Seems like a classic example of doublespeak. Translation: A healthy democracy is able to respond to the government ignoring the ballot box.
    The remit of the ballot box doesn't extend to 27 of our neighbours. The electorate were falsely told we held all the cards, and will need to hold those to account who misled them.
    What have 27 neighbours, or 200 neighbours for that matter, got to do with our ballot box? There was plenty of misleading and lying on both sides of the argument, and the electorate has spoken since the referendum. Democracy has done its work and will continue to do so until governments, or elites, start taking it upon themselves to decide which ballot box results to respect and which not.
    Williamglenn has never respected the ballot box. He opposes everything it stands for.
    I think William is riffing David Davis.

    "If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy."
    Back in 2005 Davis also said a European negotiation should be backed up with a double referendum.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Strange how people feel the need to get all shitty about her role here in the 2016 Presidential election. You didn't have to read her links. You didn't have to bet on the basis of it.

    But if you did......

    To be honest at the time I didn't think it added anything to the discussion, with hindsight though it was a bloody great warning sign about how Trump was doing a lot better than expected.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    edited March 2018

    DavidL said:

    Good news....

    A major centre of homeopathy will no longer be able to spend NHS money on the controversial practice.
    The Royal London Hospital for Integrated Medicine - formerly the Royal London Homeopathic Hospital - will stop providing NHS-funded homeopathic remedies in April.

    Excellent. At a time when rationality seems to have lost serious ground to emotion this is a very positive step.
    Good grief - tomorrow we'll be demanding that politicians demand evidence to support their policies.

    Off topic - men over 40, get yourself to the doctor for a checkup

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/13/prostate-cancer-happy-diagnosis-operation
    I would be reluctant to go that far, our political classes would simply be unable to cope :-)

    Edit, having read the article, I have to say that I am not a fan of George Monbiot, I think we would agree on relatively few things politically, but that is a hell of a piece. Brave, raw and very human. I wish him every chance in the world.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:
    In my view, too early to call Ireland.
    But IFS busy tweeting how badly the economy has performed since Q2 2016 is more grist to this Remainer’s mill.
    Quarters of negative growth whilst in EU : 23
    Quarters of negative growth since Brexit referendum : 0

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Quarters of negative growth whilst in EU : 23
    Quarters of negative growth since Brexit referendum : 0

    Brexiteers' grasp of numbers : 0

    You do realise all quarters since the referendum we are in the EU, right?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    In my view, too early to call Ireland.
    But IFS busy tweeting how badly the economy has performed since Q2 2016 is more grist to this Remainer’s mill.
    Quarters of negative growth whilst in EU : 23
    Quarters of negative growth since Brexit referendum : 0

    So you deny the growth has underwhelmed since the vote? OK.

    At least the more sophisticated Brexiters talk about “rebalancing” rather than outright denialism.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,953
    glw said:

    She did point out to those that cared to look a lot of sites that indicated the depth of anger about the US system - and that Trump resonated with that anger. From memory, late on there was discussion (polling?) about how Hillary was getting it wrong in the northern States that won it for Trump.

    That New Yorker article about reddit is full of stuff Plato was telling us about two years ago. In her way she was more aware of what was happening in US politics at the time than most of the pundits out there.

    Ann Coulter = Plato

    Billl Maher and Panel = the rest of pb.com

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3ZkmcGFUSM
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    MTimT2 said:

    MTimT2 said:

    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
    Is that a quote from 1984? Seems like a classic example of doublespeak. Translation: A healthy democracy is able to respond to the government ignoring the ballot box.
    The remit of the ballot box doesn't extend to 27 of our neighbours. The electorate were falsely told we held all the cards, and will need to hold those to account who misled them.
    What have 27 neighbours, or 200 neighbours for that matter, got to do with our ballot box? There was plenty of misleading and lying on both sides of the argument, and the electorate has spoken since the referendum. Democracy has done its work and will continue to do so until governments, or elites, start taking it upon themselves to decide which ballot box results to respect and which not.
    Williamglenn has never respected the ballot box. He opposes everything it stands for.
    I think William is riffing David Davis.

    "If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy."
    Back in 2005 Davis also said a European negotiation should be backed up with a double referendum.
    Davis
    Johnson
    Farage
    Rees-Mogg

    Have I missed anyone?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,953

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    In my view, too early to call Ireland.
    But IFS busy tweeting how badly the economy has performed since Q2 2016 is more grist to this Remainer’s mill.
    Quarters of negative growth whilst in EU : 23
    Quarters of negative growth since Brexit referendum : 0

    So you deny the growth has underwhelmed since the vote? OK.

    At least the more sophisticated Brexiters talk about “rebalancing” rather than outright denialism.
    It's still growth. Not the end-of-days recession we were promised by Remain.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited March 2018

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    In my view, too early to call Ireland.
    But IFS busy tweeting how badly the economy has performed since Q2 2016 is more grist to this Remainer’s mill.
    Quarters of negative growth whilst in EU : 23
    Quarters of negative growth since Brexit referendum : 0

    So you deny the growth has underwhelmed since the vote? OK.

    At least the more sophisticated Brexiters talk about “rebalancing” rather than outright denialism.
    the end-of-days recession we were promised by Remain.
    Remarkable that you have to lie so blatantly in your defense of Brexit.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    In my view, too early to call Ireland.
    But IFS busy tweeting how badly the economy has performed since Q2 2016 is more grist to this Remainer’s mill.
    Quarters of negative growth whilst in EU : 23
    Quarters of negative growth since Brexit referendum : 0

    So you deny the growth has underwhelmed since the vote? OK.

    At least the more sophisticated Brexiters talk about “rebalancing” rather than outright denialism.
    It's still growth. Not the end-of-days recession we were promised by Remain.
    You mean Osborn and Treasury, based presumably on exercising A50 immediately. It was always a worst case, and has indeed left a toxic legacy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    In my view, too early to call Ireland.
    But IFS busy tweeting how badly the economy has performed since Q2 2016 is more grist to this Remainer’s mill.
    Quarters of negative growth whilst in EU : 23
    Quarters of negative growth since Brexit referendum : 0

    So you deny the growth has underwhelmed since the vote? OK.

    At least the more sophisticated Brexiters talk about “rebalancing” rather than outright denialism.
    The urgent need to rebalance our economy, which I do not dispute, has arisen entirely whilst we are members of the EU. Brexit really has nothing to do with it and will have minimal impact upon it.
  • MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 48
    Anorak said:

    MTimT2 said:

    What have 27 neighbours, or 200 neighbours for that matter, got to do with our ballot box?

    The mindset of planting dense leylandii hedges without concern for the neighbours with whom you've got on well with for decades.
    A pretty crappy metaphor.

    Do you consult your neighbors when you decide to change jobs, have children, divorce or move house? Maybe but I doubt their opinions weigh that heavily on your ultimate decisions concerning the major choices in life.

    Hedges are equivalent to how you do what you've decided to do with consideration for others. They are not the equivalent of making the major life choices.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Ann Coulter = Plato

    Billl Maher and Panel = the rest of pb.com

    I predicted Trump would take the Presidency early in the primaries.

    You're welcome to follow my advice about the fate of Brexit too. ;)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    In my view, too early to call Ireland.
    But IFS busy tweeting how badly the economy has performed since Q2 2016 is more grist to this Remainer’s mill.
    Quarters of negative growth whilst in EU : 23
    Quarters of negative growth since Brexit referendum : 0

    So you deny the growth has underwhelmed since the vote? OK.

    At least the more sophisticated Brexiters talk about “rebalancing” rather than outright denialism.
    The urgent need to rebalance our economy, which I do not dispute, has arisen entirely whilst we are members of the EU. Brexit really has nothing to do with it and will have minimal impact upon it.
    It’s harder to rebalance when you chop one leg off.

    That’s a flippant remark, but the underlying truth is that it surely is harder to rebalance when there’s less money (growth) around.
  • Sky now reporting that the Police are now investigating the death of the Russian in London on Monday.

    Also solid support from across the EU who are outraged at the first use of a nerve agent on European soil since WW2
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    MTimT2 said:

    Anorak said:

    MTimT2 said:

    What have 27 neighbours, or 200 neighbours for that matter, got to do with our ballot box?

    The mindset of planting dense leylandii hedges without concern for the neighbours with whom you've got on well with for decades.
    A pretty crappy metaphor.

    Do you consult your neighbors when you decide to change jobs, have children, divorce or move house? Maybe but I doubt their opinions weigh that heavily on your ultimate decisions concerning the major choices in life.

    Hedges are equivalent to how you do what you've decided to do with consideration for others. They are not the equivalent of making the major life choices.
    I would certainly consult my neighbour if I decided to change jobs from a company I had actually set up with him.

    The alternative is so do a “moonlight flit”.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050

    DavidL said:

    Good news....

    A major centre of homeopathy will no longer be able to spend NHS money on the controversial practice.
    The Royal London Hospital for Integrated Medicine - formerly the Royal London Homeopathic Hospital - will stop providing NHS-funded homeopathic remedies in April.

    Excellent. At a time when rationality seems to have lost serious ground to emotion this is a very positive step.
    Good grief - tomorrow we'll be demanding that politicians demand evidence to support their policies.

    Off topic - men over 40, get yourself to the doctor for a checkup

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/13/prostate-cancer-happy-diagnosis-operation
    The usefulness of PSA screening is moot. Indeed in one recent US study the death rate was fractionally higher in the screened men, while a European study found marginal utility.

    http://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2009/03/18/the-psa-test-the-picture-becomes-slightly-clearer/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    glw said:

    She did point out to those that cared to look a lot of sites that indicated the depth of anger about the US system - and that Trump resonated with that anger. From memory, late on there was discussion (polling?) about how Hillary was getting it wrong in the northern States that won it for Trump.

    That New Yorker article about reddit is full of stuff Plato was telling us about two years ago. In her way she was more aware of what was happening in US politics at the time than most of the pundits out there.

    Ann Coulter = Plato

    Billl Maher and Panel = the rest of pb.com

    ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3ZkmcGFUSM
    That was very funny. Maher’s Liberal Californian audience had no idea what was going on in the rest of the country.

    It’s why the Dems need to think long and hard about who they pick in 2020, they need to appeal to the swing states not to the base.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2018

    The clearest cut cases last time for a personal vote that I spotted while putting this map together were Rob Marris in Wolverhampton South West and Paul Scully in Sutton & Cheam. Mhairi Black also relatively bucked the trend sharply.

    Most other meaningful swings could be largely explained through other means.

    Rob Marris was replaced by Eleanor Smith as Labour candidate for Wolv' SW in 2017. I'm not sure whether or not the swing was lower to Labour than it would have been if he'd stood again.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Sky now reporting that the Police are now investigating the death of the Russian in London on Monday.

    Also solid support from across the EU who are outraged at the first use of a nerve agent on European soil since WW2

    All of this news is not helping @Benpointer’s (or my) resolution to stay off PB.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    In my view, too early to call Ireland.
    But IFS busy tweeting how badly the economy has performed since Q2 2016 is more grist to this Remainer’s mill.
    Quarters of negative growth whilst in EU : 23
    Quarters of negative growth since Brexit referendum : 0

    So you deny the growth has underwhelmed since the vote? OK.

    At least the more sophisticated Brexiters talk about “rebalancing” rather than outright denialism.
    The urgent need to rebalance our economy, which I do not dispute, has arisen entirely whilst we are members of the EU. Brexit really has nothing to do with it and will have minimal impact upon it.
    It’s harder to rebalance when you chop one leg off.

    That’s a flippant remark, but the underlying truth is that it surely is harder to rebalance when there’s less money (growth) around.
    There is a hypothesis in that proposition that has yet to be tested. We shall see. At the moment we need to carry on with increased savings, increased production, increased investment and reduced consumption and borrowing. Achieving that whilst remaining moderately popular in government will not be easy, especially when the LOTO lives in some sort of fantasy island where more spending is a risk free option.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Good news....

    A major centre of homeopathy will no longer be able to spend NHS money on the controversial practice.
    The Royal London Hospital for Integrated Medicine - formerly the Royal London Homeopathic Hospital - will stop providing NHS-funded homeopathic remedies in April.

    The less homeopathy you use, the more effective it is.

    That's science, that is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,953
    JonathanD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    In my view, too early to call Ireland.
    But IFS busy tweeting how badly the economy has performed since Q2 2016 is more grist to this Remainer’s mill.
    Quarters of negative growth whilst in EU : 23
    Quarters of negative growth since Brexit referendum : 0

    So you deny the growth has underwhelmed since the vote? OK.

    At least the more sophisticated Brexiters talk about “rebalancing” rather than outright denialism.
    the end-of-days recession we were promised by Remain.
    Remarkable that you have to lie so blatantly in your defense of Brexit.
    Get your shit together with Gardenwalker! You can't both be right....

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,953
    Tump saying he fired Tillerson because of "chemistry".

    Yep. Some pretty complex organic chemistry, from a lab in a Russian closed city......
  • Sky now reporting that the Police are now investigating the death of the Russian in London on Monday.

    Also solid support from across the EU who are outraged at the first use of a nerve agent on European soil since WW2

    All of this news is not helping @Benpointer’s (or my) resolution to stay off PB.
    I did say earlier that PB is a great source of breaking news as well as a forum for political debate and helping to improve one's own attitudes to subjects.

    It is difficult not to keep popping in
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Scott_P said:
    The Trump Whitehouse is a mad house but in fairness that comment doesn't seem to sit terribly well with his job title.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. NorthWales, et al, be honest. The real reason you keep coming here is for talk of differential front end grip.
  • I wonder how this Tillerson stuff is playing out in today's special election district?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Quarters of negative growth whilst in EU : 23
    Quarters of negative growth since Brexit referendum : 0

    Brexiteers' grasp of numbers : 0

    You do realise all quarters since the referendum we are in the EU, right?
    6 years of recession whilst in the EU .....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Good news....

    A major centre of homeopathy will no longer be able to spend NHS money on the controversial practice.
    The Royal London Hospital for Integrated Medicine - formerly the Royal London Homeopathic Hospital - will stop providing NHS-funded homeopathic remedies in April.

    Excellent. At a time when rationality seems to have lost serious ground to emotion this is a very positive step.
    Good grief - tomorrow we'll be demanding that politicians demand evidence to support their policies.

    Off topic - men over 40, get yourself to the doctor for a checkup

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/13/prostate-cancer-happy-diagnosis-operation
    The usefulness of PSA screening is moot. Indeed in one recent US study the death rate was fractionally higher in the screened men, while a European study found marginal utility.

    http://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2009/03/18/the-psa-test-the-picture-becomes-slightly-clearer/
    It’s not the level itsaelf is it, it’s whether the level’s rising significantly.
  • Mr. NorthWales, et al, be honest. The real reason you keep coming here is for talk of differential front end grip.

    People come to PB for my awesome tips and my history lessons/comparisons.

    Oh, and my subtle puns.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Good news....

    A major centre of homeopathy will no longer be able to spend NHS money on the controversial practice.
    The Royal London Hospital for Integrated Medicine - formerly the Royal London Homeopathic Hospital - will stop providing NHS-funded homeopathic remedies in April.

    Excellent. At a time when rationality seems to have lost serious ground to emotion this is a very positive step.
    Good grief - tomorrow we'll be demanding that politicians demand evidence to support their policies.

    Off topic - men over 40, get yourself to the doctor for a checkup

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/13/prostate-cancer-happy-diagnosis-operation
    The usefulness of PSA screening is moot. Indeed in one recent US study the death rate was fractionally higher in the screened men, while a European study found marginal utility.

    http://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2009/03/18/the-psa-test-the-picture-becomes-slightly-clearer/
    Very small numbers, possibly not statistically significant? What must be important is acting fast when you have symptoms and to know what those symptoms are.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2018

    Mr. NorthWales, et al, be honest. The real reason you keep coming here is for talk of differential front end grip.

    People come to PB for my awesome tips and my history lessons/comparisons.

    Oh, and my subtle puns.
    Well it definitely isn't for your music or fashion suggestions.... ;-)
  • Mr. NorthWales, et al, be honest. The real reason you keep coming here is for talk of differential front end grip.

    At my age that sounds painful !!!!
  • Mr. NorthWales, et al, be honest. The real reason you keep coming here is for talk of differential front end grip.

    People come to PB for my awesome tips and my history lessons/comparisons.

    Oh, and my subtle puns.
    Well it definitely isn't for your music or fashion suggestions.... ;-)
    Oh they do, I note that Corbyn started dressing better after I did a PB thread offering him some fashion advice.


    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/11/some-fashion-advice-for-jeremy-corbyn/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,953
    Are we sure it's the REAL Hillary Clinton though?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, some people think Ferrari has a blown rear this year.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    May I invite you kindly gentle-folk to join me on the New Thread?
  • NEW THREAD

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Good news....

    A major centre of homeopathy will no longer be able to spend NHS money on the controversial practice.
    The Royal London Hospital for Integrated Medicine - formerly the Royal London Homeopathic Hospital - will stop providing NHS-funded homeopathic remedies in April.

    Excellent. At a time when rationality seems to have lost serious ground to emotion this is a very positive step.
    Good grief - tomorrow we'll be demanding that politicians demand evidence to support their policies.

    Off topic - men over 40, get yourself to the doctor for a checkup

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/13/prostate-cancer-happy-diagnosis-operation
    The usefulness of PSA screening is moot. Indeed in one recent US study the death rate was fractionally higher in the screened men, while a European study found marginal utility.

    http://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2009/03/18/the-psa-test-the-picture-becomes-slightly-clearer/
    Very small numbers, possibly not statistically significant? What must be important is acting fast when you have symptoms and to know what those symptoms are.

    That's the key. My Dad was not right for years in various ways, kept going to the doctor, kept getting different diagnoses. They only realised it was prostate cancer when it was too late. If they had got it earlier he may have had a few more years, though it would have killed him in the end no doubt.

    When I went to the doctor after he died to ask about whether I had a higher chance of getting it, my GP looked at me straight in the eye and said - and I'll never forget this - "Mr Wild, I can tell immediately what you are suffering from: Dead Dad's Disease", and then basically asked me to leave. That was a few years ago and obviously I changed doctor, but it kind of sums up how little attention prostate cancer has had until very recently. Hopefully, that is now changing.
This discussion has been closed.