Very broad analysis, but the remaining vote seems to be more from Allegheny (big Dem lead) than Westmoreland (smaller GOP lead). Some from Washington too, but that's almost tied compared to the other 2.
LAMB SACCONE MILLER %age Allegheny 55,875 40,915 503 1 Westmoreland 29,124 39,362 455 1 Washington 20,721 23,594 331 1 Greene 1,927 2,694 42 1 Total 107,647 106,565 1,331
Lamb by ~1K?
Waaay too close
Yeah, but there simply aren't that many votes to come. We're 95% in, so there's only about 10,000 votes still to come. A 1,000 variance from your forecast on the last 10,000 votes, while not unprecedented, is still pretty unlikely.
Allegheny remaining is 50:50 Washington remaining is good for Saccone Westmoreland unknown
I'm not sure that's true. If you look at the Washington remaining, it's all near the Allegheny border. And the other border districts have all come in 55:45 to Saccone. Which frankly isn't enough with only 10,000 votes still to come in. (Of which a fair number are from Allegheny anyway.)
...Yeah, but there simply aren't that many votes to come. We're 95% in, so there's only about 10,000 votes still to come. A 1,000 variance from your forecast on the last 10,000 votes, while not unprecedented, is still pretty unlikely.
Fair point but the incoming is lumpy, not homogeneous, and we've had last minute turnarounds before (didn't Bernie do this once?)
Nate Cohn says 784 votes (net) for Saccone left outside Westmoreland. Would suggest a win for Lamb by perhaps 300 when Westmoreland is counted too, but there could also be some absentee ballots left (which are unpredictable but overall favour Democrats).
...Yeah, but there simply aren't that many votes to come. We're 95% in, so there's only about 10,000 votes still to come. A 1,000 variance from your forecast on the last 10,000 votes, while not unprecedented, is still pretty unlikely.
Fair point but the incoming is lumpy, not homogeneous, and we've had last minute turnarounds before (didn't Bernie do this once?)
As I said, not unprecedented.
This is not something that couldn't happen. It's merely unlikely.
I said 90-95% chance for Lamb when it was 95% in. We're now 96% in, with the incremental all from Allegheny and going marginally for Lamb.
"Precinct results are not currently available in Westmoreland County, a heavily Republican part of the district. We’re monitoring the county-level results closely, but for now we can’t responsibly make a forecast without more detailed information about where in Westmoreland County the votes are coming from."
No mandatory recount according to the PA SoS’s office. It’ll require a petition by at least three voters in every precinct apparently, and there’s only a five day window to file it in.
Immediately above the headline "Live Estimates of the Final Vote", immediately below the words "Get Election Updates Want to know when we’ll have live election results? Sign up to be notified on election days."
Take the partial reported and simply prorata them up to give a final estimate, The first four lines are the NYT figures, the last five lines are my calculated final from the partial.
Pretty clear in any case the margin will be close enough for absentees to tip the balance. More likely to favour Dems, but no-one will concede until they are counted I expect.
Learning point for me tonight: Betfair hugely overreacted to early results. Not a novel point, I appreciate, but the 1.2 on Lamb with 10% of precincts reporting was nuts. Looks like laying him then will be a losing bet, but a value one for sure.
Pretty clear in any case the margin will be close enough for absentees to tip the balance. More likely to favour Dems, but no-one will concede until they are counted I expect.
I thought military voters usually favour the Republicans, but absentee ballots would also include people on holiday which would probably favour the Democrats.
Pretty clear in any case the margin will be close enough for absentees to tip the balance. More likely to favour Dems, but no-one will concede until they are counted I expect.
I thought military voters usually favour the Republicans, but absentee ballots would also include people on holiday which would probably favour the Democrats.
True, I'm thinking of early voters which is different.
Whatever the final result, a 20 point swing to the Democrats shows it is extremely unlikely Trump will win Pennsylvania in 2020 given it was a 0.7 point margin against a terrible Democratic candidate. He can't afford to lose any other state, and he won the similar Michigan and Wisconsin by similar margins. Plus Florida is very hard with Puerto Rican immigration...
Learning point for me tonight: Betfair hugely overreacted to early results. Not a novel point, I appreciate, but the 1.2 on Lamb with 10% of precincts reporting was nuts. Looks like laying him then will be a losing bet, but a value one for sure.
It always overreacts. That's the way to make money, by not being swayed by the overreactions. At the general election if the first few seats are safe Labour seats it always affects the odds when they're declared even though it obviously shouldn't because no-one expected anything else to happen in those seats. Punters are swayed by actual results even when they're not representative because real information always seems more reliable and concrete.
Whatever the final result, a 20 point swing to the Democrats shows it is extremely unlikely Trump will win Pennsylvania in 2020 given it was a 0.7 point margin against a terrible Democratic candidate. He can't afford to lose any other state, and he won the similar Michigan and Wisconsin by similar margins. Plus Florida is very hard with Puerto Rican immigration...
Don't you think it's a bit early to be projecting forward to 2020?
Whatever the final result, a 20 point swing to the Democrats shows it is extremely unlikely Trump will win Pennsylvania in 2020 given it was a 0.7 point margin against a terrible Democratic candidate. He can't afford to lose any other state, and he won the similar Michigan and Wisconsin by similar margins. Plus Florida is very hard with Puerto Rican immigration...
Don't you think it's a bit early to be projecting forward to 2020?
Not really given the size of the swing. How many pull back a 15-20 point swing as an incumbent?
I'm going to cover my arse good and proper by saying that either Lamb or Saccone can win this and it's going to be close. And now I'm going to hide under the bed. Laters, alligators
[PS see how much fun we can have when we don't talk about Brexit?]
I'm going to cover my arse good and proper by saying that either Lamb or Saccone can win this and it's going to be close. And now I'm going to hide under the bed. Laters, alligators
[PS see how much fun we can have when we don't talk about Brexit?]
I'm going to cover my arse good and proper by saying that either Lamb or Saccone can win this and it's going to be close. And now I'm going to hide under the bed. Laters, alligators
[PS see how much fun we can have when we don't talk about Brexit?]
Thanks for your posts tonight.
You're welcome, but what with the closeness and the absentee ballots I fear they may not have been helpful. Still, we shall see in the morning. Good luck to everybody, but I'm off to bed.
Just two precincts, in Westmoreland, left and Lamb still ahead by 95 votes! Assuming the absentees favour the Dems slightly, which is what is expected, he should just make it.
Comments
SQUEAKY BUM TIME.
Saccone as I say running out of road.
I remember Michigan...
It looks like Lamb has edged this by the narrowest of margins.
Telford abuse: Victim numbers 'sensationalised'
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-shropshire-43385515
LAMB SACCONE MILLER %age
Allegheny 53,081 38,869 478 0.95
Westmoreland 28,250 38,181 441 0.97
Washington 18,649 21,235 298 0.9
Greene 1,927 2,694 42 1
LAMB SACCONE MILLER %age
Allegheny 55,875 40,915 503 1
Westmoreland 29,124 39,362 455 1
Washington 20,721 23,594 331 1
Greene 1,927 2,694 42 1
Total 107,647 106,565 1,331
Lamb by ~1K?
Waaay too close
It has to be a 90-95% chance of a Lamb victory.
Allegheny remaining is 50:50
Washington remaining is good for Saccone
Westmoreland unknown
LAMB SACCONE MILLER %age
Allegheny 54,013 39,597 486 0.96
Westmoreland 28,250 38,181 441 0.97
Washington 18,649 21,235 298 0.9
Greene 1,927 2,694 42 1
LAMB SACCONE MILLER %age
Allegheny 56,264 41,247 506 1
Westmoreland 29,124 39,362 455 1
Washington 20,721 23,594 331 1
Greene 1,927 2,694 42 1
Total 108,035 106,897 1,334
Still for Lamb...just
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/973742169113624577
Thank you both.
This is not something that couldn't happen. It's merely unlikely.
I said 90-95% chance for Lamb when it was 95% in. We're now 96% in, with the incremental all from Allegheny and going marginally for Lamb.
I'd reckon 92-95% chance for Lamb now.
I'm sticking with my 92-95% chance for Lamb.
Bollocks, it's 98.9% in!!!
Reported
LAMB SACCONE MILLER %age
Allegheny 54,942 40,420 493 0.97
Westmoreland 28,250 38,181 441 0.97
Washington 18,649 21,235 298 0.9
Greene 1,927 2,694 42 1
Estimated final
LAMB SACCONE MILLER %age
Allegheny 56,641 41,670 508 1
Westmoreland 29,124 39,362 455 1
Washington 20,721 23,594 331 1
Greene 1,927 2,694 42 1
Total 108,413 107,320 1,336
Still Lamb, still ~1K
Immediately above the headline "Live Estimates of the Final Vote", immediately below the words "Get Election Updates Want to know when we’ll have live election results? Sign up to be notified on election days."
Take the partial reported and simply prorata them up to give a final estimate, The first four lines are the NYT figures, the last five lines are my calculated final from the partial.
Washington 9
Allegheny 3
Westmoreland 1
Washington o/s includes 6 precincts in Peters County on border with Allegheny - will all be good for Saccone.
REPORTED BY NYT[1]
PRECINCT LAMB SACCONE MILLER %AGE
Allegheny 56,324 41,880 502 0.99
Westmoreland 29,179 39,430 447 0.99
Washington 19,725 22,566 313 0.93
Greene 1,927 2,694 42 1
FINAL ESTIMATES BY VIEWCODE DERIVED FROM THE ABOVE
PRECINCT LAMB SACCONE MILLER %AGE
Allegheny 56,893 42,303 507 1
Westmoreland 29,474 39,828 452 1
Washington 21,210 24,265 337 1
Greene 1,927 2,694 42 1
Total 109,503 109,090 1,337
Lamb by 413 votes. Oh my word...
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
To come:
Washington 8
Allegheny 2
Westmoreland 2
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/03/13/trump-mcmaster-john-kelly-sciutto-sot-erin.cnn
We are about to go full Trump. Never go full Trump.
But I can only see 8 in Washington?
[PS see how much fun we can have when we don't talk about Brexit?]
http://washcounty.info/Elections/Default.aspx?PageLayout=SUMMARY&Election=23
There has clearly been a massive falling out, I am guessing over all the tariff stuff.
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/PA/Allegheny/73817/Web02.193333/#/cid/0102
Overall - Lamb leads by 95 - with Westmoreland o/s (2 precincts I think)
Seems like an incredibly narrow Lamb victory. But there will be absentee ballots to come, albeit the majority seem to be from Alleghany
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-43389032/how-russia-uses-propaganda-to-discredit-opponents
DEM +752 net
Outstanding:
Westmoreland - 2 precincts
Absentee ballots in Washington, Westmoreland and Greene
95 + 752 = 847