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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So crunch day on Russia for the PM

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    DavidL said:

    tyson said:

    I am reluctant to suggest this but it does seem like this is TM's Falkland's moment

    That’s about the 17th time you’ve called that this year!! :-)

    Today’s events have far more significance for Labour than for Mrs May. The measures announced are not going to cause much of a problem for Putin and do nothing to discomfit the oligarchs that surround him. The UK is in a weak position, unfortunately.


    Poor Big G is desperate for us all to look lovingly at our dear leader through his coloured glasses...

    Granted she is playing the politics of all this quite well, but seriously that is all she is doing. We need to go much further of course, but May's natural caution will stop it. There is no way we should be participating in the World Cup in a country sponsoring terrorism, murder led by criminals and thieves.

    But at the end of the day, her campaigning skills are utterly atrocious..Russia or no Russia.. and based purely on that she will not lead the Tories into another election...


    Hi Tyson - I am not desperate for you to look lovingly at TM, just to accept she is playing this well and trouncing Corbyn
    She is not trouncing Corbyn, he is trouncing himself to the embarrassment of the majority of his party's MPs.
    Good point but she did in her response to his response
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,999

    How long can labour mps put up with Corbyn

    In your office as May's principal hagiographer you'd better hope a lot longer.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    glw said:

    It's the recklessness of the Russian actions that is of greatest concern. If say the courier (there very likely was one) damaged the container for the substance on something like a plane or a train you could be talking about dozens of deaths.

    Apparently these substances are possible to be transported as two (mostly) harmless substances, they only become lethal when combined.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989

    I'm getting nervous here. We know that Jezza and Vlad are good muckers. Perhaps Vlad has secretly told Jezza that Russia genuinely wasn't behind it. Jezza has taken this line so that when it comes out that Russia is in the clear he will look like a statesman while Theresa will look like a warmongering nincompoop. Vlad would be that devious. Is there any other explanation?

    Yes - Corbyn is a closet Putinist
    That is ridiculous. Putin is a gangster plain and simple.

    Trump isn't a gangster but you can see the mutual attraction with Putin. Both are rich dishonest narcissistic authoritarians with no respect for law. Corbyn couldn't be more different. Does anyone seriously think that Corbyn admires or supports Putin in any way
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897

    Is Corbyn for real - I accept that I do not support him but today he is again being taken to the cleaners by TM

    on the NHS....

    This is akin to last night's Man Utd performance
    I had it more akin to Spurs v Juventus.
    We scored, had triple the number of shots and double the number of shots on target than Juve... I think Man U's performance closer to the 'absolute boy' today (tm St Hodges)
    Six times, we're going to win it six times in Kiev this May.

    (I hope)
    If we make the final I'm going to be in Kiev :)
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    Dura_Ace said:

    How long can labour mps put up with Corbyn

    In your office as May's principal hagiographer you'd better hope a lot longer.
    I have no problem with a sensible labour party divorced from the hard left - after all I voted for labour and Tony Blair twice
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Barnesian said:

    I'm getting nervous here. We know that Jezza and Vlad are good muckers. Perhaps Vlad has secretly told Jezza that Russia genuinely wasn't behind it. Jezza has taken this line so that when it comes out that Russia is in the clear he will look like a statesman while Theresa will look like a warmongering nincompoop. Vlad would be that devious. Is there any other explanation?

    Yes - Corbyn is a closet Putinist
    That is ridiculous. Putin is a gangster plain and simple.

    Trump isn't a gangster but you can see the mutual attraction with Putin. Both are rich dishonest narcissistic authoritarians with no respect for law. Corbyn couldn't be more different. Does anyone seriously think that Corbyn admires or supports Putin in any way
    James Bickerton
    @JBickertonUK

    In 2014 Stop the War Coalition published a piece arguing that "if we have to pick a side" in the Ukraine conflict we should side with Russia. The group's Chair at the time was Jeremy Corbyn.

    YES
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Poor Big G is desperate for us all to look lovingly at our dear leader through his coloured glasses...

    Granted she is playing the politics of all this quite well, but seriously that is all she is doing. We need to go much further of course, but May's natural caution will stop it. There is no way we should be participating in the World Cup in a country sponsoring terrorism, murder led by criminals and thieves.

    But at the end of the day, her campaigning skills are utterly atrocious..Russia or no Russia.. and based purely on that she will not lead the Tories into another election...

    Hi Tyson - I am not desperate for you to look lovingly at TM, just to accept she is playing this well and trouncing Corbyn

    Is her purpose to look after the interests of British citizens and other residents here? Or is it to trounce Corbyn?

    I would help very much if the Government did the former, Mr Wales. You seem more interested in the latter.

    It would probably help the country if Mrs May said what she meant, and meant what she said. However, her track record on speaking clearly and honestly has been deplorable. She is letting the country down. And so are the Conservative loyalists who are keeping her in place.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Is Corbyn for real - I accept that I do not support him but today he is again being taken to the cleaners by TM

    on the NHS....

    This is akin to last night's Man Utd performance
    I had it more akin to Spurs v Juventus.
    We scored, had triple the number of shots and double the number of shots on target than Juve... I think Man U's performance closer to the 'absolute boy' today (tm St Hodges)
    Six times, we're going to win it six times in Kiev this May.

    (I hope)
    If we make the final I'm going to be in Kiev :)
    I was in Istanbul and Athens.

    Amazing night when we staged the greatest comeback since Lazarus.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    BudG said:


    As for Jeremy Corbyn, why is anyone surprised at his response?

    Quite. He has form on matters like this.

    I recall he was unsupportive of a former Prime Minister who assured the nation that it was right to declare war on Iraq because it was HIGHLY LIKELY that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. Not at all surprised he is raising questions about evidence.

    The evidence is slightly stronger, even if some is circumstantial.

    It appears undisputed that nerve agent was deployed.
    It appears undisputed that nerve agent was deployed in Salisbury, UK
    Which nation had a grudge against the attacked individual, that we know of?

    If only Russia was in the single market and rules of origin applied, it would be so easy.

    I would not be a shocked to find the nerve agent is closely related some used in Syria recently.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,303
    What I think is that there has been a surprising amount of anger and hostility about the way that Putin and his thugs have been behaving for some considerable time and that events in Salisbury have brought that anger to a boil. The questions to May are ranging very far and wide and are by no means restricted to this attempted murder.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Andrew said:

    glw said:

    It's the recklessness of the Russian actions that is of greatest concern. If say the courier (there very likely was one) damaged the container for the substance on something like a plane or a train you could be talking about dozens of deaths.

    Apparently these substances are possible to be transported as two (mostly) harmless substances, they only become lethal when combined.
    In some cases, although I'm not convinced Russia was all that concerned about collateral damage, and it certainly wasn't the case with the Polonium.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    If Corbyn collaborates any further people will think he’s French.

    Corbyn makes sure he is never photographed eating cheese.....
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Sandpit said:

    Is Corbyn for real - I accept that I do not support him but today he is again being taken to the cleaners by TM

    on the NHS....

    This is akin to last night's Man Utd performance
    I had it more akin to Spurs v Juventus.
    We scored, had triple the number of shots and double the number of shots on target than Juve... I think Man U's performance closer to the 'absolute boy' today (tm St Hodges)
    Six times, we're going to win it six times in Kiev this May.

    (I hope)
    If we make the final I'm going to be in Kiev :)
    I was in Istanbul and Athens.

    Amazing night when we staged the greatest comeback since Lazarus.
    It should not be "Kyiv" - Kiev ultimately being derived from its name under Russian occupation...!
  • Options
    PClipp said:

    Poor Big G is desperate for us all to look lovingly at our dear leader through his coloured glasses...

    Granted she is playing the politics of all this quite well, but seriously that is all she is doing. We need to go much further of course, but May's natural caution will stop it. There is no way we should be participating in the World Cup in a country sponsoring terrorism, murder led by criminals and thieves.

    But at the end of the day, her campaigning skills are utterly atrocious..Russia or no Russia.. and based purely on that she will not lead the Tories into another election...

    Hi Tyson - I am not desperate for you to look lovingly at TM, just to accept she is playing this well and trouncing Corbyn
    Is her purpose to look after the interests of British citizens and other residents here? Or is it to trounce Corbyn?

    I would help very much if the Government did the former, Mr Wales. You seem more interested in the latter.

    It would probably help the country if Mrs May said what she meant, and meant what she said. However, her track record on speaking clearly and honestly has been deplorable. She is letting the country down. And so are the Conservative loyalists who are keeping her in place.

    You mean she is taking us out of the EU much to your dislike
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    edited March 2018
    Greetings to all from HK!

    Isn’t Corbyn a Privy Councillor? And wouldn’t intelligence about what has happened and about possible secret retaliatory measures be shared with the Opposition on Privy Council terms? Normally?

    But one of Corbyn's closest advisors is a certain Seamus Milne, who has met with Putin, admires him and has spoken at rallies with him in his support even after the attacks on the Ukraine. So would the intelligence services really want to share intelligence - which may even involve action by British agents inside Russia now - with someone close to and advised by such a man? Could they really be confident that sensitive intelligence would not be leaked or provided to the Russians?

    And imagine if such an attack happened and the PM was Corbyn? How can we be sure that he would authorise the relevant agencies to take all necessary steps to protect British citizens here? He may say the right things (about the attack being appalling) but would he take all necessary action to defend British citizens?

    This seems to be a far more important aspect to and criticism of Corbyn’s reaction than the outrage at him pointing out the donations received by the Tories from Russians, which may have been crude but have a point which the Tories would do well to consider. Given the state of Russia, it is very very difficult to distinguish between wealth made legitimately and that which isn’t. Whether it is legal to receive those Russian donations is not really the point. The question the Tories should have been asking themselves - and should now be asking - is whether it is wise.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    edited March 2018
    It's pathetic to draw comparisons between this and Iraq

    WE KNOW THE F**KING NERVE AGENT EXISTED AND WAS USED

    Corbyns either being thick, or a stooge.
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Is Corbyn for real - I accept that I do not support him but today he is again being taken to the cleaners by TM

    on the NHS....

    This is akin to last night's Man Utd performance
    I had it more akin to Spurs v Juventus.
    We scored, had triple the number of shots and double the number of shots on target than Juve... I think Man U's performance closer to the 'absolute boy' today (tm St Hodges)
    Six times, we're going to win it six times in Kiev this May.

    (I hope)
    If we make the final I'm going to be in Kiev :)
    I was in Istanbul and Athens.

    Amazing night when we staged the greatest comeback since Lazarus.
    It should not be "Kyiv" - Kiev ultimately being derived from its name under Russian occupation...!
    Kyiv it is.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    If Corbyn collaborates any further people will think he’s French.

    Corbyn makes sure he is never photographed eating cheese.....
    If electricity follows the path of least resistance, why doesn't all the lightning end up in France?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,303

    DavidL said:

    tyson said:

    I am reluctant to suggest this but it does seem like this is TM's Falkland's moment

    That’s about the 17th time you’ve called that this year!! :-)

    Today’s events have far more significance for Labour than for Mrs May. The measures announced are not going to cause much of a problem for Putin and do nothing to discomfit the oligarchs that surround him. The UK is in a weak position, unfortunately.


    Poor Big G is desperate for us all to look lovingly at our dear leader through his coloured glasses...

    Granted she is playing the politics of all this quite well, but seriously that is all she is doing. We need to go much further of course, but May's natural caution will stop it. There is no way we should be participating in the World Cup in a country sponsoring terrorism, murder led by criminals and thieves.

    But at the end of the day, her campaigning skills are utterly atrocious..Russia or no Russia.. and based purely on that she will not lead the Tories into another election...


    Hi Tyson - I am not desperate for you to look lovingly at TM, just to accept she is playing this well and trouncing Corbyn
    She is not trouncing Corbyn, he is trouncing himself to the embarrassment of the majority of his party's MPs.
    Good point but she did in her response to his response
    Missed that as was in the Politics Today studio. Its tricky because we don't want to look divided. I think the criticism of Corbyn can largely be left to the Labour back benchers.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Sandpit said:

    Is Corbyn for real - I accept that I do not support him but today he is again being taken to the cleaners by TM

    on the NHS....

    This is akin to last night's Man Utd performance
    I had it more akin to Spurs v Juventus.
    We scored, had triple the number of shots and double the number of shots on target than Juve... I think Man U's performance closer to the 'absolute boy' today (tm St Hodges)
    Six times, we're going to win it six times in Kiev this May.

    (I hope)
    If we make the final I'm going to be in Kiev :)
    I was in Istanbul and Athens.

    Amazing night when we staged the greatest comeback since Lazarus.
    It should not be "Kyiv" - Kiev ultimately being derived from its name under Russian occupation...!
    Kyiv it is.
    I mean, "Should it not..." not "It should not..." of course
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Cyclefree said:

    Greetings to all from HK!

    Isn’t Corbyn a Privy Councillor? And wouldn’t intelligence about what has happened and about possible secret retaliatory measures be shared with the Opposition on Privy Council terms? Normally?

    But one of Corbyn's closest advisors is a certain Seamus Milne, who has met with Putin, admires him and has spoken at rallies with him in his support even after the attacks on the Ukraine. So would the intelligence services really want to share intelligence - which may even involve action by British agents inside Russia now - with someone close to and advised by such a man? Could they really be confident that sensitive intelligence would not be leaked or provided to the Russians?

    And imagine if such an attack happened and the PM was Corbyn? How can we be sure that he would authorise the relevant agencies to take all necessary steps to protect British citizens here? He may say the right things (about the attack being appalling) but would he take all necessary action to defend British citizens?

    This seems to be a far more important aspect to and criticism of Corbyn’s reaction than the outrage at him pointing out the donations received by the Tories from Russians, which may have been crude but have a point which the Tories would do well to consider. Given the state of Russia, it is very very difficult to distinguish between wealth made legitimately and that which isn’t. Whether it is legal to receive those Russian donations is not really the point. The question the Tories should have been asking themeselves - and should now be asking - is whether it is wise.

    +1.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    HYUFD said:

    I am reluctant to suggest this but it does seem like this is TM's Falkland's moment

    At least Foot ended up backing sending a taskforce with rather less reservations than Corbyn had about the expulsions today.

    If Corbyn becomes PM, especially without a majority there must be a slim chance of a military coup if he is seen to go too far
    There was a murky right-wing plot to overthrow Harold Wilson. It was never implemented

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4789060.stm

    As murky as this latest poisoning, in fact. That will also I imagine take 30 years to decipher and name names.

    If Corbyn becomes PM with a majority of 5-10, the likes of Liz Kendall or Chris Leslie will have a veto. So he's unlikely to 'go too far' as you put it. If he has no majority, there'd be a Lib/Lab/Green/PC pact or similar which would be even more consensual. So he's even less likely to 'go too far'.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Hope you're having a nice time, Miss Cyclefree :)

    Mr. Voter, assuming the disloyal MPs aren't replaced by ones that realise we've always been at war with Eurasia.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    edited March 2018
    Somehow the context of this now being accepted to be part of a concerted Russian propaganda campaign makes it look worse than it might have done at the time. I think Corbyn could be in trouble.
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/73484077675712512
    Pro-democracy protests in Russia? Whaddabout protests in the UK?
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/150575633448185856
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672
    edited March 2018
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/973921313000747009

    And Russia 'has history' of murdering former spies on British soil.....but he doesn't mention that.....
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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    tyson said:

    I am reluctant to suggest this but it does seem like this is TM's Falkland's moment

    That’s about the 17th time you’ve called that this year!! :-)

    Today’s events have far more significance for Labour than for Mrs May. The measures announced are not going to cause much of a problem for Putin and do nothing to discomfit the oligarchs that surround him. The UK is in a weak position, unfortunately.


    Poor Big G is desperate for us all to look lovingly at our dear leader through his coloured glasses...

    Granted she is playing the politics of all this quite well, but seriously that is all she is doing. We need to go much further of course, but May's natural caution will stop it. There is no way we should be participating in the World Cup in a country sponsoring terrorism, murder led by criminals and thieves.

    But at the end of the day, her campaigning skills are utterly atrocious..Russia or no Russia.. and based purely on that she will not lead the Tories into another election...


    Hi Tyson - I am not desperate for you to look lovingly at TM, just to accept she is playing this well and trouncing Corbyn
    She is not trouncing Corbyn, he is trouncing himself to the embarrassment of the majority of his party's MPs.
    Good point but she did in her response to his response
    Missed that as was in the Politics Today studio. Its tricky because we don't want to look divided. I think the criticism of Corbyn can largely be left to the Labour back benchers.
    Her response to Corbyn opened the door to the fusilage of criticism to his stance from labour mps
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    If Corbyn got in, there would have to be a greater than zero % chance he would immediately disband MI:5 and MI:6 if he had no faith in them.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    edited March 2018
    BudG said:


    As for Jeremy Corbyn, why is anyone surprised at his response?

    Quite. He has form on matters like this.

    I recall he was unsupportive of a former Prime Minister who assured the nation that it was right to declare war on Iraq because it was HIGHLY LIKELY that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. Not at all surprised he is raising questions about evidence.

    Do you think that if WMD had been found Corbyn would have changed his mind and supported the war?

    Or isn’t it much more likely that he was against any action which would have involved him being on the side of the Americans, regardless of the WMD question?

    After all, he was against any action being taken to help the Yazidis being slaughtered by IS or any action to help the poor Muslims of Kosovo being slaughtered by the Serbs. Corbyn’s view is easy to discern: find the side the Americans are on and he’s on the opposing side. The WMD were a McGuffin as far as Corbyn and his ilk were concerned.
  • Options

    Somehow the context of this now being accepted to be part of a concerted Russian propaganda campaign makes it look worse than it might have done at the time. I think Corbyn could be in trouble.
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/73484077675712512
    Pro-democracy protests in Russia? Whaddabout protests in the UK?
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/150575633448185856

    To be honest if the IRA didn’t cause Corbyn problems then this Russia stuff won’t either.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    There's a big difference between dodgy intelligence about weapons held by Saddam Hussein in Iraq and analysis of a weapon that has actually been used in the UK.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/973921313000747009

    And Russia 'has history' of murdering former spies on British soil.....but he doesn't mention that.....

    Oh FFS - we have direct evidence of the WMD being used on British soil. The things are not comparable.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Cyclefree said:

    Greetings to all from HK!

    Isn’t Corbyn a Privy Councillor? And wouldn’t intelligence about what has happened and about possible secret retaliatory measures be shared with the Opposition on Privy Council terms? Normally?

    But one of Corbyn's closest advisors is a certain Seamus Milne, who has met with Putin, admires him and has spoken at rallies with him in his support even after the attacks on the Ukraine. So would the intelligence services really want to share intelligence - which may even involve action by British agents inside Russia now - with someone close to and advised by such a man? Could they really be confident that sensitive intelligence would not be leaked or provided to the Russians?

    And imagine if such an attack happened and the PM was Corbyn? How can we be sure that he would authorise the relevant agencies to take all necessary steps to protect British citizens here? He may say the right things (about the attack being appalling) but would he take all necessary action to defend British citizens?

    This seems to be a far more important aspect to and criticism of Corbyn’s reaction than the outrage at him pointing out the donations received by the Tories from Russians, which may have been crude but have a point which the Tories would do well to consider. Given the state of Russia, it is very very difficult to distinguish between wealth made legitimately and that which isn’t. Whether it is legal to receive those Russian donations is not really the point. The question the Tories should have been asking themselves - and should now be asking - is whether it is wise.


    If Corbyn becomes PM, Russia has won.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Somehow the context of this now being accepted to be part of a concerted Russian propaganda campaign makes it look worse than it might have done at the time. I think Corbyn could be in trouble.
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/73484077675712512
    Pro-democracy protests in Russia? Whaddabout protests in the UK?
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/150575633448185856

    To be honest if the IRA didn’t cause Corbyn problems then this Russia stuff won’t either.
    Not sure about that - his support for IRA murderers was too long ago to be seen as relevant to some people, but this is attempted murder on British soil today.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    BudG said:


    As for Jeremy Corbyn, why is anyone surprised at his response?

    Quite. He has form on matters like this.

    I recall he was unsupportive of a former Prime Minister who assured the nation that it was right to declare war on Iraq because it was HIGHLY LIKELY that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. Not at all surprised he is raising questions about evidence.

    And the bombing of Syria....he was called out too.

    Corbyn will never rattle a sabre for political point scoring....and his judgement on foreign policy is a lot better than any Tory I can think of....,
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    If Corbyn got in, there would have to be a greater than zero % chance he would immediately disband MI:5 and MI:6 if he had no faith in them.

    He’d make someone like George Galloway or Milne head of MI5 or the SIS
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067

    If Corbyn got in, there would have to be a greater than zero % chance he would immediately disband MI:5 and MI:6 if he had no faith in them.

    He’d make someone like George Galloway or Milne head of MI5 or the SIS
    Galloway was predicting a new global socialist Pax Britannica led by Corbyn...
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    If Corbyn got in, there would have to be a greater than zero % chance he would immediately disband MI:5 and MI:6 if he had no faith in them.

    He’d make someone like George Galloway or Milne head of MI5 or the SIS
    Milne would be well suited to the job. He knows exactly what would need to be done, from his extensive studies of the Soviet Union in the 1930s.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    tyson said:

    BudG said:


    As for Jeremy Corbyn, why is anyone surprised at his response?

    Quite. He has form on matters like this.

    I recall he was unsupportive of a former Prime Minister who assured the nation that it was right to declare war on Iraq because it was HIGHLY LIKELY that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. Not at all surprised he is raising questions about evidence.

    And the bombing of Syria....he was called out too.

    Corbyn will never rattle a sabre for political point scoring....and his judgement on foreign policy is a lot better than any Tory I can think of....,
    Foreign policy???

    Support for Hamas? Hezbollah? Chavez?

    That isn't good judgement.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Eagles, that was my thinking a few days ago. But the IRA, to many, is in the dim and distant past, whereas the nerve agent situation is current and developing.

    And so far Corbyn's response has been to condemn the British, rather than the Russian, Government.

    I doubt it'll happen, but it'd be very good if Labour MPs could finally winkle Corbyn out.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    Somehow the context of this now being accepted to be part of a concerted Russian propaganda campaign makes it look worse than it might have done at the time. I think Corbyn could be in trouble.
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/73484077675712512
    Pro-democracy protests in Russia? Whaddabout protests in the UK?
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/150575633448185856

    To be honest if the IRA didn’t cause Corbyn problems then this Russia stuff won’t either.
    Possibly.

    But the IRA trying to murder people happened years ago. The Russians are doing it now.

    And the issue of whether Corbyn would take action to protect British citizens in the here and now is a live one. So it may be different.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Somehow the context of this now being accepted to be part of a concerted Russian propaganda campaign makes it look worse than it might have done at the time. I think Corbyn could be in trouble.
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/73484077675712512
    Pro-democracy protests in Russia? Whaddabout protests in the UK?
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/150575633448185856

    To be honest if the IRA didn’t cause Corbyn problems then this Russia stuff won’t either.
    I think this as well. I don’t think the Tories will win a majority v Corbyn off of the back of these kinds of issues.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Somehow the context of this now being accepted to be part of a concerted Russian propaganda campaign makes it look worse than it might have done at the time. I think Corbyn could be in trouble.
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/73484077675712512
    Pro-democracy protests in Russia? Whaddabout protests in the UK?
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/150575633448185856

    To be honest if the IRA didn’t cause Corbyn problems then this Russia stuff won’t either.
    The IRA was then, and it was its then-ness that detoxified it. This is now. Corbyn has form (admirably) for sticking to his guns when it is politically inexpedient (e.g. not wavering on trident last GE campaign); that may be his undoing.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718

    Cyclefree said:

    Greetings to all from HK!

    Isn’t Corbyn a Privy Councillor? And wouldn’t intelligence about what has happened and about possible secret retaliatory measures be shared with the Opposition on Privy Council terms? Normally?

    But one of Corbyn's closest advisors is a certain Seamus Milne, who has met with Putin, admires him and has spoken at rallies with him in his support even after the attacks on the Ukraine. So would the intelligence services really want to share intelligence - which may even involve action by British agents inside Russia now - with someone close to and advised by such a man? Could they really be confident that sensitive intelligence would not be leaked or provided to the Russians?

    And imagine if such an attack happened and the PM was Corbyn? How can we be sure that he would authorise the relevant agencies to take all necessary steps to protect British citizens here? He may say the right things (about the attack being appalling) but would he take all necessary action to defend British citizens?

    This seems to be a far more important aspect to and criticism of Corbyn’s reaction than the outrage at him pointing out the donations received by the Tories from Russians, which may have been crude but have a point which the Tories would do well to consider. Given the state of Russia, it is very very difficult to distinguish between wealth made legitimately and that which isn’t. Whether it is legal to receive those Russian donations is not really the point. The question the Tories should have been asking themselves - and should now be asking - is whether it is wise.


    If Corbyn becomes PM, Russia has won.

    Following on from its successes with Brexit and Trump.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    On the plus side, for me, this does vindicate my position of voting Conservative at the next election, under practically all circumstances, if Corbyn remains in place. Better a thousand years of May than five of Corbyn.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Mr. Eagles, that was my thinking a few days ago. But the IRA, to many, is in the dim and distant past, whereas the nerve agent situation is current and developing.

    And so far Corbyn's response has been to condemn the British, rather than the Russian, Government.

    I doubt it'll happen, but it'd be very good if Labour MPs could finally winkle Corbyn out.

    Even better if they couldn't winkle him out, but only just couldn't.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Song, could you give Putin a bell? I voted leave but he hasn't paid me anything.
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    I thought the diplomatic expulsions were not that suprising. No nuclear war or cyber attack then!

    From a betting perspective, the most significant consequence of today's events is that it is likely to resume the civil war in the labour party.

    Corbyn's ambivalence to what appears to be a direct Russian provocation is likely to alienate the PLP and end the post GE 2017 ceasefire. But, his appeasing views on Russia might turn out to be suprisingly popular with the wider population.

    Many people would rather opt for a strategy of trying to make the problem go away by appeasing the aggressor, however historically flawed that is.



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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Z, no. The sooner Corbyn's gone the better.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    edited March 2018
    nielh said:


    Many people would rather opt for a strategy of trying to make the problem go away by appeasing the aggressor, however historically flawed that is.

    That worked well in the 1930s. How many times do you have to learn that the only way to deal with a bully is to stand up to them.

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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,414

    Mr. Z, no. The sooner Corbyn's gone the better.

    Seconded Mr Dancer.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Meanwhile, In Italy....

    @zerohedge

    ITALY'S SALVINI SAYS EURO IS `A GERMAN CURRENCY'

    ITALY'S SALVINI: EURO IS A WRONG CURRENCY, SHLD BE REVIEWED
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    edited March 2018
    tyson said:

    BudG said:


    As for Jeremy Corbyn, why is anyone surprised at his response?

    Quite. He has form on matters like this.

    I recall he was unsupportive of a former Prime Minister who assured the nation that it was right to declare war on Iraq because it was HIGHLY LIKELY that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. Not at all surprised he is raising questions about evidence.

    And the bombing of Syria....he was called out too.

    Corbyn will never rattle a sabre for political point scoring....and his judgement on foreign policy is a lot better than any Tory I can think of....,
    Eh?! spits out wine
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    prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 441
    JWisemann said:

    Can anyone please remind me how to put certain posters on ignore?

    Can't handle the truth? :)
    Nice to see you admit that you can't.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945

    (This does give me my chance to argue that we've either already had WW3 or we've not yet had WW2).

    Am I right in thinking that in the latter case, you argue that WWI was a European civil war, and WWII was therefore WWI?

    What about the former?

    Depends how you define a world war I suppose.

    There could be a reasonable argument for saying the 7 Years War was the first world war as it was fought on 5 continents.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    edited March 2018
    Amber Rudd looks utterly exhausted in the Commons. Understandable under these trying circumstances.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2018
    On the wider ramifications, I think that the international response is going to be very supportive of the UK. This is not because of the attempted murder as such - which, in the overall scheme of international affairs, is minor - but because of the chemical weapons angle. Countries far beyond Britain are going to be worried about whether their citizens might get caught up in whatever vengeful murders Putin decides to do next, and about the implications for global non-proliferation. See the NATO statement at 14:19:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/mar/14/pmqs-may-corbyn-russia-spy-poisoning-uk-it-will-face-equal-reaction-if-may-punishes-it-for-salisbury-spy-attack-politics-live
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    edited March 2018
    Corbyn is beneath contempt, but his citing the Iraq war just shows how cancerous that policy was to our body politic.

    Blair will never be forgiven, though Campbell seems to have wrangled his way back into polite society.
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    tyson said:

    BudG said:


    As for Jeremy Corbyn, why is anyone surprised at his response?

    Quite. He has form on matters like this.

    I recall he was unsupportive of a former Prime Minister who assured the nation that it was right to declare war on Iraq because it was HIGHLY LIKELY that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. Not at all surprised he is raising questions about evidence.

    And the bombing of Syria....he was called out too.

    Corbyn will never rattle a sabre for political point scoring....and his judgement on foreign policy is a lot better than any Tory I can think of....,
    Foreign policy???

    Support for Hamas? Hezbollah? Chavez?

    That isn't good judgement.
    Corbyn backed the Iranians AFTER they sent the Revolutionary Guard to slaughter democracy protesters. He opposed action against Milosevic during the Bosnian genocide.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Slackbladder, any sign of a government breaking out in Italy?
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    edited March 2018
    Scary lack of Brexit chat today.

    Can I just say, as a Remainer, very saddened to see the death of Jim Bowen. If it wasn’t for Brexit, look what we could have won.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    nielh said:

    I thought the diplomatic expulsions were not that suprising. No nuclear war or cyber attack then!

    From a betting perspective, the most significant consequence of today's events is that it is likely to resume the civil war in the labour party.

    Corbyn's ambivalence to what appears to be a direct Russian provocation is likely to alienate the PLP and end the post GE 2017 ceasefire. But, his appeasing views on Russia might turn out to be suprisingly popular with the wider population.

    Many people would rather opt for a strategy of trying to make the problem go away by appeasing the aggressor, however historically flawed that is.

    They do when the aggression is against far away countries of which we know little, not necessarily against innocent citizens in Salisbury. I am personally disgusted by the "whatever, he was a Russian traitor" school of thought, but that's immaterial anyway as he also got one of our policemen.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Corbyn is beneath contempt, but his citing the Iraq war just shows how cancerous that policy was to our body politic.

    Blair will never be forgiven, though Campbell seems to have wrangled his way back into polite society.

    Incompatibility alert: Campbell & polite society
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    Amber Rudd looks utterly exhausted in the Commons. Understandable under these trying circumstances.

    I have noticed that for the last few days
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    (This does give me my chance to argue that we've either already had WW3 or we've not yet had WW2).

    Am I right in thinking that in the latter case, you argue that WWI was a European civil war, and WWII was therefore WWI?

    What about the former?

    That the Seven Years War was WW1 so you need to add 1 to each of the others
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,192

    tyson said:

    BudG said:


    As for Jeremy Corbyn, why is anyone surprised at his response?

    Quite. He has form on matters like this.

    I recall he was unsupportive of a former Prime Minister who assured the nation that it was right to declare war on Iraq because it was HIGHLY LIKELY that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. Not at all surprised he is raising questions about evidence.

    And the bombing of Syria....he was called out too.

    Corbyn will never rattle a sabre for political point scoring....and his judgement on foreign policy is a lot better than any Tory I can think of....,
    Foreign policy???

    Support for Hamas? Hezbollah? Chavez?

    That isn't good judgement.
    If Corbyn is not a surrogate of Putin he is an appeaser. A latter day Neville Chamberlain!

    If Mrs May had waited a year to call the GE, she could have framed it as a referendum against the Russian aggressor. A vote for her would be patriotic and a vote for Corbyn would be a vote for Putin!
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    ... With regard to today's announcement, it strikes me that the government need to articulate a convincing strategy to take this 'threat from Russia' on, or else it is going to become impossible to win over a very sceptical population. All this stuff looks to many people like hysteria, however well founded it may be.

    Nothing the government has done in relation to Putin seems to have worked. Everything has backfired. Sanctions haven't worked. He just gets more and more powerful.

    The idea of getting rid of Putin has failed. This will largely be seen as a problem of the current governments own making, post 2010, although obviously it goes much further back than that.

    Furthermore, at the same time, Cameron was very quick to do deals with China, in some cases in very sensitive areas of the economy, which were to my mind astonishingly poorly thought through. There are any number of ways in which China can become hostile in the future. What is the difference between China and Russia? Honestly? This isn't about freedom and democracy, its about 8 years of foreign policy failure.

    Hence Corbyn the contrarian is going to get a hearing yet again.

    Interesting times.




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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718
    The view from CNN on 'why Britain and why now'
    "Britain is currently weak on the world stage. While it is hard to admit this, virtually every relationship it has is in tatters.
    The internal knots of the ruling Conservative Party over the country's future after leaving the European Union have left it more or less incapable of effectively bargaining on one of the most important national issues since the end of World War II."
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    (This does give me my chance to argue that we've either already had WW3 or we've not yet had WW2).

    Am I right in thinking that in the latter case, you argue that WWI was a European civil war, and WWII was therefore WWI?

    What about the former?

    Depends how you define a world war I suppose.

    There could be a reasonable argument for saying the 7 Years War was the first world war as it was fought on 5 continents.
    AJP Taylor linked, rightly in my view, the Austro-Prussian and Franco-Prussian wars with both world wars.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Personally I would strip Corbyn of his Privy Council status and thus cut him off from access to any sensitive material. I accept that this is not a practical option - but I do not believe that he and his immediate circle cannot be trusted with it.

    The 'questions' being raised by his spokesman are offensive. They have rightly been condemned.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672
    edited March 2018
    May says Corbyn's spokesman's Iraq/Salisbury WMD comparison 'wrong and outrageous'

    Caroline Johnson, a Conservative, says Corbyn’s spokesman made a comparison between this incident and Iraq. (See 2.04pm.) But in Iraq no weapons of mass destruction were found, she says. By contrast, she says, in Salisbury nerve agent has been found and three people are in hospital.

    May agrees. She says:

    It is quite wrong and outrageous that the leader of the opposition’s spokesman has made the comments in relation to this that he has.

    https://twitter.com/AndrewSparrow/status/973929820588568577
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    The view from CNN on 'why Britain and why now'
    "Britain is currently weak on the world stage. While it is hard to admit this, virtually every relationship it has is in tatters.
    The internal knots of the ruling Conservative Party over the country's future after leaving the European Union have left it more or less incapable of effectively bargaining on one of the most important national issues since the end of World War II."

    CNN - fairly consistent with their politics
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    As I said yesterday, the Russian response seems to be moving towards "it might have been some bad Ukrainian boys with some left over Soviet gloop". They are parroting the Russian line almost word for word.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847

    The view from CNN on 'why Britain and why now'
    "Britain is currently weak on the world stage. While it is hard to admit this, virtually every relationship it has is in tatters.
    The internal knots of the ruling Conservative Party over the country's future after leaving the European Union have left it more or less incapable of effectively bargaining on one of the most important national issues since the end of World War II."

    Difficult to disagree with that.
    But we were warned.

    By the way, I think May’s response is frankly insufficient. Too cautious by half.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945

    The view from CNN on 'why Britain and why now'
    "Britain is currently weak on the world stage. While it is hard to admit this, virtually every relationship it has is in tatters.
    The internal knots of the ruling Conservative Party over the country's future after leaving the European Union have left it more or less incapable of effectively bargaining on one of the most important national issues since the end of World War II."

    A fatuous argument that ignores or simply doesn't remember the Litvinenko murder.

    Some people (you included) really are making themselves look very stupid trying to tie this to Brexit.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,297
    edited March 2018
    FCO - warning to all UK citizens in Russia or going to take care
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    glw said:

    As I said yesterday, the Russian response seems to be moving towards "it might have been some bad Ukrainian boys with some left over Soviet gloop". They are parroting the Russian line almost word for word.
    The breakup of the Soviet Union was 27 years ago. i'm sure it's been hanging around and fine and dandy to use after all that time....
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    The view from CNN on 'why Britain and why now'
    "Britain is currently weak on the world stage. While it is hard to admit this, virtually every relationship it has is in tatters.
    The internal knots of the ruling Conservative Party over the country's future after leaving the European Union have left it more or less incapable of effectively bargaining on one of the most important national issues since the end of World War II."

    Have these people not heard of Litvinenko?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718

    The view from CNN on 'why Britain and why now'
    "Britain is currently weak on the world stage. While it is hard to admit this, virtually every relationship it has is in tatters.
    The internal knots of the ruling Conservative Party over the country's future after leaving the European Union have left it more or less incapable of effectively bargaining on one of the most important national issues since the end of World War II."

    CNN - fairly consistent with their politics
    Are you quoting Trump?

    Two more quotes from the article:
    "The leader of the opposition, Labour's Jeremy Corbyn, suggested on Monday that dialogue with Russia was the best response to its alleged use of chemical weapons on British soil."

    "Picking on its politically weakest power -- the UK -- at a time of crisis is one way of showing Russian resurgence."
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    glw said:

    As I said yesterday, the Russian response seems to be moving towards "it might have been some bad Ukrainian boys with some left over Soviet gloop". They are parroting the Russian line almost word for word.
    I wonder what the 'shelf life' is of Nerve Agents, and the conditions required for long term storage?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    glw said:

    As I said yesterday, the Russian response seems to be moving towards "it might have been some bad Ukrainian boys with some left over Soviet gloop". They are parroting the Russian line almost word for word.
    The breakup of the Soviet Union was 27 years ago. i'm sure it's been hanging around and fine and dandy to use after all that time....
    Yes precisely - what is going to worry our allies above all is that the implication is that Russia is still producing this stuff, and is prepared to use it.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Song, and in 2006, when Litvinenko was killed? Or the allegations of Russian involvement in the US elections in 2016?
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Ishmael_Z said:

    nielh said:

    I thought the diplomatic expulsions were not that suprising. No nuclear war or cyber attack then!

    From a betting perspective, the most significant consequence of today's events is that it is likely to resume the civil war in the labour party.

    Corbyn's ambivalence to what appears to be a direct Russian provocation is likely to alienate the PLP and end the post GE 2017 ceasefire. But, his appeasing views on Russia might turn out to be suprisingly popular with the wider population.

    Many people would rather opt for a strategy of trying to make the problem go away by appeasing the aggressor, however historically flawed that is.

    They do when the aggression is against far away countries of which we know little, not necessarily against innocent citizens in Salisbury. I am personally disgusted by the "whatever, he was a Russian traitor" school of thought, but that's immaterial anyway as he also got one of our policemen.

    With respect, I don't agree. Of course, I am also disgusted by the "whatever he was a Russian traitor" school of thought.

    But the rise of domestic terrorism has not resulted in a notable increase in resolve for a ground war in Syria, or Libya, or anywhere else.
    People just want to make the problem to go away.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    (This does give me my chance to argue that we've either already had WW3 or we've not yet had WW2).

    Am I right in thinking that in the latter case, you argue that WWI was a European civil war, and WWII was therefore WWI?

    What about the former?

    Yes. I'd argue that either:

    - A 'world war' really has to be a global conflict, in which case there's only ever been one: 1937-45 (or 1941-45, if you prefer the actual global period).

    or

    - A 'world war' is one that involves the majority of the global powers fighting to the effective limits of their military and financial capacity (and those limits have to be understood in their historical contexts), even if the area within which the fighting takes place is more localised. On that basis, I'd argue that there've been at least four, with the French Revolutionary / Napoleonic Wars forming one, and the Seven Years War being another, though you can potentially make arguments for others too.
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    FCO - warning to all UK citizens in Russia or going to take care

    Much as i'd love to visit Russia, I've no desire to do so now or in the near future.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,672
    Interesting...(from Guardian liveblog) - May building bridges with Labour back benches

    Mark Francois, a Conservative, says May’s statement “in some ways had flashes of the iron lady” about it. He describes Corbyn as “a CND-wearing apologist for the Russian state”.

    May points out that many Labour MPs have backed what she said.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Exactly the same as RT then, trying to suggest it was Ukraine. What a surprise.
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    Bloomberg reporting - Italy's centre right and 5 Star agree to talks and a government from these talks would spook the financial markets and the EU over their spending plans and Euroscepticism
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    The view from CNN on 'why Britain and why now'
    "Britain is currently weak on the world stage. While it is hard to admit this, virtually every relationship it has is in tatters.
    The internal knots of the ruling Conservative Party over the country's future after leaving the European Union have left it more or less incapable of effectively bargaining on one of the most important national issues since the end of World War II."

    CNN - fairly consistent with their politics
    Are you quoting Trump?

    Two more quotes from the article:
    "The leader of the opposition, Labour's Jeremy Corbyn, suggested on Monday that dialogue with Russia was the best response to its alleged use of chemical weapons on British soil."

    "Picking on its politically weakest power -- the UK -- at a time of crisis is one way of showing Russian resurgence."
    I have nothing to do with Trump in any way - he is a disaster
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Bloomberg reporting - Italy's centre right and 5 Star agree to talks and a government from these talks would spook the financial markets and the EU over their spending plans and Euroscepticism

    Is that the centre right as in the block of parties or Forza ?
    I'd describe Liga as more right than centre-right, thought Tajani is the leader of the biggest party within the block.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    The view from CNN on 'why Britain and why now'
    "Britain is currently weak on the world stage. While it is hard to admit this, virtually every relationship it has is in tatters.
    The internal knots of the ruling Conservative Party over the country's future after leaving the European Union have left it more or less incapable of effectively bargaining on one of the most important national issues since the end of World War II."

    This seems to have produced a flurry of snowflakes in advance of the weekend. It's obvious (and honest Leavers would admit that Brexit has some downsides and this is one of them). But it appears that some Leavers can't handle the truth.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. NorthWales, thanks for that info. Presumably that means a referendum on single currency membership could be a realistic prospect?
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    I have 3 users from Russia on my web site right now.

    Time to check security!
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Anyone see this as a possible last hurrah of the moderates to try to save the labour party?
This discussion has been closed.