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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary comment on Russia by the DefSec and the man

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    F1: just perusing the markets. Hamilton all the way down to 1.68 on Betfair for the title. Be a bit dull if that proves accurate.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    alex. said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The diagrams in 3 are lifted straight from wikipedia, (page on Novichok agent) without credit which pretty much puts to bed any claim of genuine expertise.

    Why? Did he have to 'draw his own' to be 'an expert'?
    It's the "without credit" bit which is the killer.
    You’ve “had enough of experts” who don’t attach a list of references to every tweet?
    A proper scientist would give the credit (needn't be a full reference); and it does raise the question how much else of his material is lifted off the internet.
    I don’t think academia views Wikipedia as a legitimate “source”. And facts are facts, they don’t require accreditation.

    As a denizen of academia, I can promise you you are right about that. Giving credit for what you borrow is basic good manners, though.
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    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082

    This is my complete lack of surprise.

    Corbyn is terrible at 'day to day' politics and he will continue to make these sorts of mistakes and foul-ups. Maybe he doesn't care for it. Maybe he is just as talentless as he sometimes appears.

    But, in the absence of an election, it will be a slow, but steady, drift downwards.
    you mean like the seven point lead last week from the pollster that got closest at the last election?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    JWisemann said:

    This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.

    Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.

    Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.

    Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.

    Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
    That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    F1: just perusing the markets. Hamilton all the way down to 1.68 on Betfair for the title. Be a bit dull if that proves accurate.

    Those with titles are rarely dull .... :tongue:
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The diagrams in 3 are lifted straight from wikipedia, (page on Novichok agent) without credit which pretty much puts to bed any claim of genuine expertise.

    Why? Did he have to 'draw his own' to be 'an expert'?
    It's the "without credit" bit which is the killer.
    You’ve “had enough of experts” who don’t attach a list of references to every tweet?
    A proper scientist would give the credit (needn't be a full reference); and it does raise the question how much else of his material is lifted off the internet.
    Are you ruling out use of anything that is "lifted off the Internet"?
    I said "without credit."
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.

    Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.

    Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
    That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.
    Given the collapse of the LD and UKIP votes actually it is true.

    Unless either the LDs or UKIP get back over 10% Corbyn has to get over 40% to become PM given the weak third party vote means the Tory Party vote will almost certainly be well over 33% and probably at least around 40% too
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.

    Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.

    Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
    That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.
    Quite right . Also worth noting that Corbyn got over 40 last time despite polling significantly lower. Shy Corbynites.
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    JWisemann said:

    His position has been wilfully misrepresented by the tory party’s many Pravdas in displays of sickening faux-nationalism dozens of times in the past and it got him the biggest increase in the labour vote in over fifty years.

    The last thing anyone wants or expects from Corbyn is to disingenuously wrap his political fortunes in the flag.

    I dont think this will be any different, given I cant imagine the whole event features very highly on many normal peoples radars. Much though the senile Big Gs of this world would love it to be otherwise, this is no Falklands, just a murky little assassination attempt of a former spy from another country (with lots of actors other than the Russian government who would potentially benefit).

    I am not senile and you do not win arguments by being offensive. Disagree by all means but your whole tone is one of abject panic that Corbyn has been found out.

    And it was not me giving TM flowers in Salisbury, applauding her, and World leaders joining her in condemning Putin.

    You think this is going to pass soon but this is not going away anytime soon
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    JWisemann said:

    His position has been wilfully misrepresented by the tory party’s many Pravdas in displays of sickening faux-nationalism dozens of times in the past and it got him the biggest increase in the labour vote in over fifty years.

    The last thing anyone wants or expects from Corbyn is to disingenuously wrap his political fortunes in the flag.

    I dont think this will be any different, given I cant imagine the whole event features very highly on many normal peoples radars. Much though the senile Big Gs of this world would love it to be otherwise, this is no Falklands, just a murky little assassination attempt of a former spy from another country (with lots of actors other than the Russian government who would potentially benefit).

    It's no Falklands, but the attempted poisoning of British citizens is a very hostile act.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    alex. said:

    Jonathan said:

    JWisemann said:

    This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.

    Corbyn has to look prime ministerial at these moments to stand a chance of winning. He has not inspired confidence this week . He made two mistakes. Firstly making party political points at a moment of national crisis. Secondly taking a position helpful to the Kremlin at a time when the government's diplomatic position was fragile.

    We need him to hold the government to account, but timing and tone is important . He could have done it without the two big errors above.

    Key point - if he has (genuine) doubts, get friendly backbenchers to raise them. That is what backbenchers are for. There are times when it is necessary for the Opposition to back the Govt publicly (and raise doubts in private)
    An incident like this is actually more difficult for a LotO to get right, than for a PM. They have to get out of the mindset of opposing the government, and instead support it.

    Of course it’s more difficult for Corbyn than most other LotO, because deep down he’s at best ambivalent to Russia deploying chemical weapons on English soil.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    JWisemann said:

    His position has been wilfully misrepresented by the tory party’s many Pravdas in displays of sickening faux-nationalism dozens of times in the past and it got him the biggest increase in the labour vote in over fifty years.

    The last thing anyone wants or expects from Corbyn is to disingenuously wrap his political fortunes in the flag.

    I dont think this will be any different, given I cant imagine the whole event features very highly on many normal peoples radars. Much though the senile Big Gs of this world would love it to be otherwise, this is no Falklands, just a murky little assassination attempt of a former spy from another country (with lots of actors other than the Russian government who would potentially benefit).

    I don't think that's corbyn's problem. I believe a lot of people would like to vote for him. His instincts are attractive to lefties. He just looks so old fashined. No one who was alive then really wants to go back to the 70's but that's all he seems to be offering.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. W, those who have five titles and gain them (mostly) easily are :p
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897

    F1: just perusing the markets. Hamilton all the way down to 1.68 on Betfair for the title. Be a bit dull if that proves accurate.

    Great news for your Bottas e/w bet though ;)
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.

    Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.

    Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
    That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.
    Given the collapse of the LD and UKIP votes actually it is true.

    Unless either the LDs or UKIP get back over 10% Corbyn has to get over 40% to become PM given the weak third party vote means the Tory Party vote will almost certainly be well over 33% and probably at least around 40% too
    As usual, you are way too certain about what might unfold in the future.
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    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Admirably measure response to my ill-mannered ranting HYUFD, but I would have to point out that it is one poll and pretty much MOE stuff.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited March 2018
    JWisemann said:

    Admirably measure response to my ill-mannered ranting HYUFD, but I would have to point out that it is one poll and pretty much MOE stuff.

    Nonetheless it is a small but significant shift.

    We await other polls to confirm agreed
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.

    Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.

    Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
    That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.
    Quite right . Also worth noting that Corbyn got over 40 last time despite polling significantly lower. Shy Corbynites.
    Corbyn actually slightly underperformed the final Survation rating for Labour though
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    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    Admirably measure response to my ill-mannered ranting HYUFD, but I would have to point out that it is one poll and pretty much MOE stuff.

    Nonetheless it is a small but significant shift.

    We await other polls to confirm agreed
    The Sky data polls yesterday were poor for Corbyn with only 18% trusting him to deal with the crisis
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.

    Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.

    Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
    That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.
    Given the collapse of the LD and UKIP votes actually it is true.

    Unless either the LDs or UKIP get back over 10% Corbyn has to get over 40% to become PM given the weak third party vote means the Tory Party vote will almost certainly be well over 33% and probably at least around 40% too
    As usual, you are way too certain about what might unfold in the future.
    Well given there is zero evidence of any LD or UKIP recovery from life support anytime soon that 40%+ rating for Corbyn remains crucial
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Ishmael_Z said:

    A strikingly bad point, when you look at the tergiversations the Labour government went through to avoid an Iraq inquiry: when you suppress evidence there is a legitimate presumption that it's against you. And anyway, Chilcot looks like evidence to me.
    Kudos on use of 'tergiversations'. An under used word.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750

    This looks like a pretty big deal. Andrew Murrison is a Leave backer and the NIAC has three DUP MPs sitting on it:

    http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/northern-ireland-affairs-committee/news-parliament-2017/ni-land-border-report-publication-17-19/

    A leaver and historically very loyal, for what that is worth.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Sean_F said:

    JWisemann said:

    His position has been wilfully misrepresented by the tory party’s many Pravdas in displays of sickening faux-nationalism dozens of times in the past and it got him the biggest increase in the labour vote in over fifty years.

    The last thing anyone wants or expects from Corbyn is to disingenuously wrap his political fortunes in the flag.

    I dont think this will be any different, given I cant imagine the whole event features very highly on many normal peoples radars. Much though the senile Big Gs of this world would love it to be otherwise, this is no Falklands, just a murky little assassination attempt of a former spy from another country (with lots of actors other than the Russian government who would potentially benefit).

    It's no Falklands, but the attempted poisoning of British citizens is a very hostile act.
    Were they British citizens?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    Admirably measure response to my ill-mannered ranting HYUFD, but I would have to point out that it is one poll and pretty much MOE stuff.

    Nonetheless it is a small but significant shift.

    We await other polls to confirm agreed
    The Sky data polls yesterday were poor for Corbyn with only 18% trusting him to deal with the crisis
    Yes, the vast majority of 2017 Labour voters ie over 90% are still backing Labour but that is not enough for Corbyn to become PM and if just 1% of 2017 Labour voters have switched to the Tories that could be enough for a small Tory majority given the Tories only need to gain 8 seats to obtain that majority
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.

    Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.

    Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
    That depends on where the tories end up.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. W, those who have five titles and gain them (mostly) easily are :p

    Mothers of the multi-titled nobility might disagree that childbirth is easy .... :smile:
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    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    JWisemann said:

    His position has been wilfully misrepresented by the tory party’s many Pravdas in displays of sickening faux-nationalism dozens of times in the past and it got him the biggest increase in the labour vote in over fifty years.

    The last thing anyone wants or expects from Corbyn is to disingenuously wrap his political fortunes in the flag.

    I dont think this will be any different, given I cant imagine the whole event features very highly on many normal peoples radars. Much though the senile Big Gs of this world would love it to be otherwise, this is no Falklands, just a murky little assassination attempt of a former spy from another country (with lots of actors other than the Russian government who would potentially benefit).

    It's no Falklands, but the attempted poisoning of British citizens is a very hostile act.
    Were they British citizens?
    Well the Rozzer certainly is.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited March 2018
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.

    Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.

    Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
    That depends on where the tories end up.
    Which given the collapse of the LD and UKIP votes will almost certainly be at least around 40% as things stand (today's Yougov has the Tories on 42%), hence Corbyn has to get over that 40% mark and start to win over 2017 Tory voters to get to Downing Street
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.

    Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.

    Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
    That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.
    Given the collapse of the LD and UKIP votes actually it is true.

    Unless either the LDs or UKIP get back over 10% Corbyn has to get over 40% to become PM given the weak third party vote means the Tory Party vote will almost certainly be well over 33% and probably at least around 40% too
    As usual, you are way too certain about what might unfold in the future.
    Well given there is zero evidence of any LD or UKIP recovery from life support anytime soon that 40%+ rating for Corbyn remains crucial
    I do agree with Alastair on this. There is no certainty about the future and predictions are not flexible enough to account for an ever changing political climate.

    Who would have predicted two weeks ago that Corbyn would fail so spectacularly on his first foreign affairs crisis
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    edited March 2018
    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    JWisemann said:

    His position has been wilfully misrepresented by the tory party’s many Pravdas in displays of sickening faux-nationalism dozens of times in the past and it got him the biggest increase in the labour vote in over fifty years.

    The last thing anyone wants or expects from Corbyn is to disingenuously wrap his political fortunes in the flag.

    I dont think this will be any different, given I cant imagine the whole event features very highly on many normal peoples radars. Much though the senile Big Gs of this world would love it to be otherwise, this is no Falklands, just a murky little assassination attempt of a former spy from another country (with lots of actors other than the Russian government who would potentially benefit).

    It's no Falklands, but the attempted poisoning of British citizens is a very hostile act.
    Were they British citizens?
    Two of the theee in still hospital are British. The daughter is Russian.

    The other 30 ish people treated for exposure to the chemical weapon we don’t know about, but appear to mainly be emergency services and hospital workers.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Sandpit, yeah, though I should've put (relatively) more on that and less on Alonso. Still, hindsight, etc.
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    NEW THREAD

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    This whole frothing nonsense will have blown over shortly, and the wishful thinking amongst the balding buffoons here and in the Westminster bubble that this will have any ongoing impact on Corbyn and his ongoing demolition of everything the Tories stand for will be shown up to be just what delusion it was. Quite fun to watch though.

    Labour is back to 39% though with Yougov today, crucially under the 40% mark Labour got at the general election.

    Labour has to get over 40% for Corbyn to have a chance of becoming PM
    That simply isn't true. The question is how Labour performs relative to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives were to tally 33%, Labour could get well under 40% and Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister.
    Given the collapse of the LD and UKIP votes actually it is true.

    Unless either the LDs or UKIP get back over 10% Corbyn has to get over 40% to become PM given the weak third party vote means the Tory Party vote will almost certainly be well over 33% and probably at least around 40% too
    As usual, you are way too certain about what might unfold in the future.
    Well given there is zero evidence of any LD or UKIP recovery from life support anytime soon that 40%+ rating for Corbyn remains crucial
    I do agree with Alastair on this. There is no certainty about the future and predictions are not flexible enough to account for an ever changing political climate.

    Who would have predicted two weeks ago that Corbyn would fail so spectacularly on his first foreign affairs crisis
    There is certainty around the fact that Corbyn has to get over 40% to become PM in the current climate unless there is a third party revival.

    No party leader has become PM on under 40% since WW2 without either the LDs or UKIP getting well over 10% of the vote
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,783
    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    Foxy said:

    Perhaps the target was really the daughter, and for her to die in Russia like the son. No investigation then.
    If the nerve gas was borne in the daughters suitcase what are the logistics of both daughter and father being taken ill at the same time on the park bench?
    Doesn't make sense, does it?
    "I brought your favourite treat/a present from Moscow with me - let's share it/open it now"
This discussion has been closed.