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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s Cold War, Jim: but not as we know it

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited March 17 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s Cold War, Jim: but not as we know it

Nutcases and tyrants have historically had an easy ride in their own day; their crimes frequently being attributed to the unauthorised actions of ‘evil advisors’ rather than being commissioned from the top. Occasionally, this is true (the Peasant’s Revolt against Richard II might be one example – though Richard was only 14 at the time, and still a duplicitous and cruel character), but generally it isn’t. Time and again, foreign analysts advise their own governments that these dictators are under pressure from hard-liners, only for it later to turn out, after the regime has fallen and the papers are released, that they were themselves the most extreme hard-liner.

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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    First! Like Mrs May....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,934
    US Attorney General Jeff Sessions has fired FBI official Andrew McCabe, who had been accused of political bias by President Donald Trump.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43439066
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,934
    edited March 17

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    Two attempted murders and one murder:

    Police have launched a murder investigation into the death of the Russian businessman Nikolai Glushkov after a pathologist concluded he died from compression to the neck, suggesting he may have been strangled by hand or ligature.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/police-launch-inquiry-over-death-of-nikolai-glushkov
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    One of the Novichok inventors rubbishes most of the conspiracy theories:

    The Russian chemist who revealed the existence of the novichok family of chemical agents to the world has dismissed the notion that a non-state actor could be behind the poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England, earlier this month.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/russian-spy-poisoning-attack-novichok-chemist
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,934

    One of the Novichok inventors rubbishes most of the conspiracy theories:

    The Russian chemist who revealed the existence of the novichok family of chemical agents to the world has dismissed the notion that a non-state actor could be behind the poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England, earlier this month.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/russian-spy-poisoning-attack-novichok-chemist

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    FPT:
    RobD said:

    Martin Selmayr's Wiki entry....as brought to you by..... Martin Selmayr.....

    https://magazin.spiegel.de/SP/2018/12/156332543/

    Is he under any serious pressure, or will this all blow over? The fact he became the deputy, then the head of the civil service resigned and he was confirmed as the head in the same meeting is utterly ridiculous.
    I don't know - its a classic 'old boys stitch up' that would have stunk to high heaven and led to sackings and resignations in Westminster......as for the EU....we shall see....

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867
    How long has this thread been here? :p
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    Labour voters are not following the Salisbury case as closely as Conservatives, but largely believe in Russian responsibility and they're much less convinced that their leader has got it right:

    Following closely (net) - VI:
    Con: +43
    Lab: +19

    Russia responsible (Net)
    Con: +73
    Lab: +67

    [Leader] responded well [among VI] - net:

    May/Conservatives: +75
    Corbyn/Labour: +20

    When it comes to the other person - Tories have no time for Corbyn, Labour split on May

    [Opponent Leader] responded well [among VI] - net
    Corbyn/Conservatives: -61
    May/Labour: -4
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,481

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
    Lost for the next election, but not necessarily for life, though that is a danger. Young people these days feel saddled with debt for the next couple decades, see house prices far out of reach for anything decent, and have to work very long hours in the post-80s culture that has developed. They feel exploited by bosses and landlords. Only be breaking that feeling will the Tories survive.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    Elliot said:

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
    Lost for the next election, but not necessarily for life, though that is a danger. Young people these days feel saddled with debt for the next couple decades, see house prices far out of reach for anything decent, and have to work very long hours in the post-80s culture that has developed. They feel exploited by bosses and landlords. Only be breaking that feeling will the Tories survive.
    This looks like an interesting read:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/the-charge-sheet-against-tory-britain/
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,310
    “The Tories must also stop union-bashing. Unions drive up workplace standards and lessen the need for state intervention...If the government wants to take on Corbyn, it should also boost health funding, build more affordable homes, introduce a German-style property speculation tax, and levy land-banking. Funding poverty alleviation and more apprenticeships with a wealth tax on the super-rich is also a must.”

    Probably about as close to a Labour endorsement as the Spectator can manage...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,890

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
    Support for May almost doubles among 25-49 year olds, to 45%.

    Even among 18-24 year olds, Corbyn's support is only 17%.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 933
    rkrkrk said:

    “The Tories must also stop union-bashing. Unions drive up workplace standards and lessen the need for state intervention...If the government wants to take on Corbyn, it should also boost health funding, build more affordable homes, introduce a German-style property speculation tax, and levy land-banking. Funding poverty alleviation and more apprenticeships with a wealth tax on the super-rich is also a must.”

    Probably about as close to a Labour endorsement as the Spectator can manage...
    You do get the amusing situation sometimes where Conservative supporters basically propose basically becoming Labour in order to stop Labour (this also happens in reverse) I think the basic idea is the enemy are evil and/or incompetent so having the good guys implement their ideas is okay.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 933
    Sean_F said:

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
    Support for May almost doubles among 25-49 year olds, to 45%.

    Even among 18-24 year olds, Corbyn's support is only 17%.
    From what I remember of breakdowns of the times one the other day a lot of that category is in the 'don't know' section, as one of the other statistics pointed out a large section of them haven't really been following the story. It would be more interesting to see what percentage of those who know about the story supported Corbyn's position.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,148
    Elliot said:

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
    Lost for the next election, but not necessarily for life, though that is a danger. Young people these days feel saddled with debt for the next couple decades, see house prices far out of reach for anything decent, and have to work very long hours in the post-80s culture that has developed. They feel exploited by bosses and landlords. Only be breaking that feeling will the Tories survive.
    Any explanation of why younger people have turned their backs on the Conservatives that doesn’t mention Brexit is worthless.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,217
    A very good article about our multipolar world (which points up the nonsense of Putin's claim to be defending against a unipolar one).

    Is it in Britain's interest to defend Estonia ? Absolutely it is. To do otherwise would likely mean the beginning of the end for NATO, and the start of Russian redomination of Eastern Europe.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,148
    On topic, the question that is not asked enough is what the Russian government is trying to achieve. Its disruptive and unlawful policies are born of economic weakness and fear of encirclement, a wish to reassert regional domination not get world domination. It seeks la gloire and impact.

    The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    On topic, the question that is not asked enough is what the Russian government is trying to achieve. Its disruptive and unlawful policies are born of economic weakness and fear of encirclement, a wish to reassert regional domination not get world domination. It seeks la gloire and impact.

    The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.

    I asked exactly that question last week. ;)

    Our response has to be framed in the context of what Putin hopes to achieve, and we must attempt to deny him that.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,516

    On topic, the question that is not asked enough is what the Russian government is trying to achieve. Its disruptive and unlawful policies are born of economic weakness and fear of encirclement, a wish to reassert regional domination not get world domination. It seeks la gloire and impact.

    The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.

    I asked exactly that question last week. ;)

    Our response has to be framed in the context of what Putin hopes to achieve, and we must attempt to deny him that.
    Isn't that a bit late. He wants to be seen as powerful and synonymous with Russia.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,550
    Nigelb said:

    A very good article about our multipolar world (which points up the nonsense of Putin's claim to be defending against a unipolar one).

    Is it in Britain's interest to defend Estonia ? Absolutely it is. To do otherwise would likely mean the beginning of the end for NATO, and the start of Russian redomination of Eastern Europe.

    It is in Britain's (and NATO's) interest to do each and every thing it has agreed to do in each and every treaty to which it is a party; not just morally, but out of expedience because if you can't be trusted, you can't be trusted. Suggesting otherwise is the same kind of wannabe-sophisticated and embarrassing fail as the claim, beloved of the flounceariat, that only the little people would suppose that the EU was acting in good faith over Turkey's accession.

    If we don't as a nation think that, and given that there is no known way of arranging for Estonia's no-fault expulsion from NATO, we should ourselves leave, now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,986

    On topic, the question that is not asked enough is what the Russian government is trying to achieve. Its disruptive and unlawful policies are born of economic weakness and fear of encirclement, a wish to reassert regional domination not get world domination. It seeks la gloire and impact.

    The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.

    I asked exactly that question last week. ;)

    Our response has to be framed in the context of what Putin hopes to achieve, and we must attempt to deny him that.
    We could start with a public enquiry into how Putin's little helpers in UK and Europe are aided by both overt and covert means. In the US there is the Mueller enguiry, but we need the equivalent here to investigate those increasingly on the far right and even centre right have allowed themselves to become Putin's useful idiots. The Salisbury poisoning is despicable, but the poisoning of our political system much more threatening. The article below is from 2014, but when we see how things have developed, quite prescient:

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Good morning, everyone.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,782
    Ishmael_Z said:



    If we don't as a nation think that, and given that there is no known way of arranging for Estonia's no-fault expulsion from NATO, we should ourselves leave, now.

    That'll be the next referendum after Brexit is 'done and dusted'. The side of the bus could say "Do you want 10,000 British troops to die and risk nuclear war to defend Estonia?" I'm pretty sure Leave NATO would win.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,865

    On topic, the question that is not asked enough is what the Russian government is trying to achieve. Its disruptive and unlawful policies are born of economic weakness and fear of encirclement, a wish to reassert regional domination not get world domination. It seeks la gloire and impact.

    The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.

    Russia, or Putin in particular, wants the influence.and respect it lost when the USSR collapsed. It is strong enough to cause trouble but not strong enough to assert its will. It just occurred to me that Russia has essentially the same objective and situation as North Korea.

    The West is mostly ignoring Russia by neither punishing it very much, nor according it respect. In the same token Russia's aims are neither advanced nor prevented. But it probably works domestically and every country's foreign policy is ultimately domestic.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,383
    Interesting interview with John Simpson on radio yesterday. He likes Putin and has a certain sympathy for him. He believes that if the West/America hadn't kicked Russia when it was down and instead embraced it the problems that we are seeing now wouldn't be happening. A persuasive argument.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,890
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    If we don't as a nation think that, and given that there is no known way of arranging for Estonia's no-fault expulsion from NATO, we should ourselves leave, now.

    That'll be the next referendum after Brexit is 'done and dusted'. The side of the bus could say "Do you want 10,000 British troops to die and risk nuclear war to defend Estonia?" I'm pretty sure Leave NATO would win.

    But, then, neither 10,000 dead nor nuclear war is terribly likely. Indeed, the more ready NATO is to defend Estonia, the less likely it is that war would occur.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,782
    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    If we don't as a nation think that, and given that there is no known way of arranging for Estonia's no-fault expulsion from NATO, we should ourselves leave, now.

    That'll be the next referendum after Brexit is 'done and dusted'. The side of the bus could say "Do you want 10,000 British troops to die and risk nuclear war to defend Estonia?" I'm pretty sure Leave NATO would win.

    But, then, neither 10,000 dead nor nuclear war is terribly likely. Indeed, the more ready NATO is to defend Estonia, the less likely it is that war would occur.
    If we've learnt anything in the past few years it's that bus based populist bullshit doesn't have to be true to work.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    If we don't as a nation think that, and given that there is no known way of arranging for Estonia's no-fault expulsion from NATO, we should ourselves leave, now.

    That'll be the next referendum after Brexit is 'done and dusted'. The side of the bus could say "Do you want 10,000 British troops to die and risk nuclear war to defend Estonia?" I'm pretty sure Leave NATO would win.

    But, then, neither 10,000 dead nor nuclear war is terribly likely. Indeed, the more ready NATO is to defend Estonia, the less likely it is that war would occur.
    If we've learnt anything in the past few years it's that bus based populist bullshit doesn't have to be true to work.
    Possibly. But it's losing out big time to Twitter based populist bullshit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    Roger said:

    Interesting interview with John Simpson on radio yesterday. He likes Putin and has a certain sympathy for him. He believes that if the West/America hadn't kicked Russia when it was down and instead embraced it the problems that we are seeing now wouldn't be happening. A persuasive argument.

    Maybe. Or maybe Russia would continue to be a problem, as an elite would still have plunderd the country's natural resources and institutions that develp them to obtain and retain obscene levels of wealth - and used whatever means required not to give that wealth back to the benefit of the Russian people.

    That the current Russian ruling elite treat the Russian people with as much contempt as the Tsars just makes the position of Corbyn and Milne even more difficult to fathom.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    Roger said:

    Interesting interview with John Simpson on radio yesterday. He likes Putin and has a certain sympathy for him. He believes that if the West/America hadn't kicked Russia when it was down and instead embraced it the problems that we are seeing now wouldn't be happening. A persuasive argument.

    Maybe. Or maybe Russia would continue to be a problem, as an elite would still have plunderd the country's natural resources and institutions that develp them to obtain and retain obscene levels of wealth - and used whatever means required not to give that wealth back to the benefit of the Russian people.

    That the current Russian ruling elite treat the Russian people with as much contempt as the Tsars just makes the position of Corbyn and Milne even more difficult to fathom.
    Well quite. The idea that if we had been a bit nicer to Russia it would not be the kleptocracy it now is, and would be at worst a benevolent dictatorship is fanciful to the same degree as believing that if we all held hands and sung Kumbaya there would be no more wars.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,217
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    If we don't as a nation think that, and given that there is no known way of arranging for Estonia's no-fault expulsion from NATO, we should ourselves leave, now.

    That'll be the next referendum after Brexit is 'done and dusted'. The side of the bus could say "Do you want 10,000 British troops to die and risk nuclear war to defend Estonia?" I'm pretty sure Leave NATO would win.

    I don't think so. Hang together, or hang separately is also a simple message.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    FF43 said:

    On topic, the question that is not asked enough is what the Russian government is trying to achieve. Its disruptive and unlawful policies are born of economic weakness and fear of encirclement, a wish to reassert regional domination not get world domination. It seeks la gloire and impact.

    The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.

    Russia, or Putin in particular, wants the influence.and respect it lost when the USSR collapsed. It is strong enough to cause trouble but not strong enough to assert its will. It just occurred to me that Russia has essentially the same objective and situation as North Korea.

    The West is mostly ignoring Russia by neither punishing it very much, nor according it respect. In the same token Russia's aims are neither advanced nor prevented. But it probably works domestically and every country's foreign policy is ultimately domestic.
    Putin's Russia has tried to buy that respect by bribing FIFA to award it the World Cup. That is why there should be a large-scale boycott. We wouldn't have attended North Korea if it had bribed FIFA with the same intent of buying respect, would we?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,481

    On topic, the question that is not asked enough is what the Russian government is trying to achieve. Its disruptive and unlawful policies are born of economic weakness and fear of encirclement, a wish to reassert regional domination not get world domination. It seeks la gloire and impact.

    The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.

    I completely agree with this. In addition, the more I have read about Putin, the more thin skinned he seems. A more intelligent version of Trump, but with the same narcissism. We need to actively be spreading the (accurate) narrative that Putin entrenched a deeper level of corruption in Russia and stole billions from the Russian people. And also publicise the criminality and addiction rampant in Russia because life is so poor there.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Mr. Roger, Simpson's a ****ing idiot. I still remember him reporting how Mugabe had 'outmanoeuvred' Morgan Tsvangirai[sp] (opposition leader) by rigging elections and employing thuggish tactics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,217
    Roger said:

    Interesting interview with John Simpson on radio yesterday. He likes Putin and has a certain sympathy for him. He believes that if the West/America hadn't kicked Russia when it was down and instead embraced it the problems that we are seeing now wouldn't be happening. A persuasive argument.

    Is it ?
    And just what form would 'embracing Russia' have taken ?

    I'm not convinced that the Russian sense of grievance has all that much to do with anything we did or didn't do.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,825
    Just heard the British Ambassador to Russia in the news (come out of meeting with Lavrov)

    He slipped - and corrected himself - but said “a lot of the work of my Embassy has been is to work to build links with the Russian people

    Reading too much into a slip of the tongue?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,516
    People need to stop equating Putin with Russia. If he wants anything, it is that.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,550
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    If we don't as a nation think that, and given that there is no known way of arranging for Estonia's no-fault expulsion from NATO, we should ourselves leave, now.

    That'll be the next referendum after Brexit is 'done and dusted'. The side of the bus could say "Do you want 10,000 British troops to die and risk nuclear war to defend Estonia?" I'm pretty sure Leave NATO would win.

    But, then, neither 10,000 dead nor nuclear war is terribly likely. Indeed, the more ready NATO is to defend Estonia, the less likely it is that war would occur.
    If we've learnt anything in the past few years it's that bus based populist bullshit doesn't have to be true to work.
    Well spotted.

    You think proposing that we comply with our treaty obligations is "populist bullshit?" This will, anyway, be a US decision which we will slavishly follow, and the US is in a bit of a quandary about reneging on obligations under an existing, defensive treaty after branding the French "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" for thinking twice about signing up to an illegal, offensive one.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,005
    edited March 17

    Elliot said:

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
    Lost for the next election, but not necessarily for life, though that is a danger. Young people these days feel saddled with debt for the next couple decades, see house prices far out of reach for anything decent, and have to work very long hours in the post-80s culture that has developed. They feel exploited by bosses and landlords. Only be breaking that feeling will the Tories survive.
    Any explanation of why younger people have turned their backs on the Conservatives that doesn’t mention Brexit is worthless.
    Elliot is right here and you are sadly wrong. Unless housing is fixed the Conservatives will never have a core vote amongst the young- their lives are damaged by overpriced housing and a continual fear that in 3-6 months they have to move again.

    Brexit comes way after that...
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,481
    eek said:

    Elliot said:

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
    Lost for the next election, but not necessarily for life, though that is a danger. Young people these days feel saddled with debt for the next couple decades, see house prices far out of reach for anything decent, and have to work very long hours in the post-80s culture that has developed. They feel exploited by bosses and landlords. Only be breaking that feeling will the Tories survive.
    Any explanation of why younger people have turned their backs on the Conservatives that doesn’t mention Brexit is worthless.
    Elliot is right here and you are sadly wrong. Unless housing is fixed the Conservatives will never have a core vote amongst the young- their lives are damaged by overpriced housing and a continual fear that in 3-6 months they have to move again.

    Brexit comes way after that...
    It is not just about first time buyers either. A lot of people managed to buy a small flat but can't afford to get an actual house large enough to have a family. These people feel almost as oppressed as renters.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,825

    US Attorney General Jeff Sessions has fired FBI official Andrew McCabe, who had been accused of political bias by President Donald Trump.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43439066

    2 days before he retires. Trump calling for him to be stripped on his pension (accrued over 22 years and secure in 2 days).

    The man is a vindictive little shit
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,411
    edited March 17
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    If we don't as a nation think that, and given that there is no known way of arranging for Estonia's no-fault expulsion from NATO, we should ourselves leave, now.

    That'll be the next referendum after Brexit is 'done and dusted'. The side of the bus could say "Do you want 10,000 British troops to die and risk nuclear war to defend Estonia?" I'm pretty sure Leave NATO would win.

    But, then, neither 10,000 dead nor nuclear war is terribly likely. Indeed, the more ready NATO is to defend Estonia, the less likely it is that war would occur.
    If we've learnt anything in the past few years it's that bus based populist bullshit doesn't have to be true to work.
    Appeasers of aggression might choose to avoid a bus analogy :

    Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain a few weeks before Germany overrun continental western Europe.

    "The result was that when war did break out German preparations were far ahead of our own, and it was natural then to expect that the enemy would take advantage of his initial superiority to make an endeavour to overwhelm us and France before we had time to make good our deficiencies. Is it not a very extraordinary thing that no such attempt was made? Whatever may be the reason—whether it was that Hitler thought he might get away with what he had got without fighting for it, or whether it was that after all the preparations were not sufficiently complete—however, one thing is certain: he missed the bus."

    Speech to the Central Council of the National Union of Conservative and Unionist Associations at Central Hall, Westminster (4 April 1940), quoted in "Confident of Victory," The Times (5 April 1940)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,550
    Putin has an increasingly acute, purely personal problem, highlighted by yesterday's announcement about Zuma: once you have amassed your hundreds of billions, how do you safely get off the still-revolving roundabout and live out your days in peace? It isn't easy, especially when you have (presumably) created (and bequeathed to your successor) the mightiest killing-Russian-billionaires-abroad team the world has yet seen, and created a thousand precedents for imprisoning them for years on bogus charges if they choose to stay at home.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Jonathan said:

    On topic, the question that is not asked enough is what the Russian government is trying to achieve. Its disruptive and unlawful policies are born of economic weakness and fear of encirclement, a wish to reassert regional domination not get world domination. It seeks la gloire and impact.

    The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.

    I asked exactly that question last week. ;)

    Our response has to be framed in the context of what Putin hopes to achieve, and we must attempt to deny him that.
    Isn't that a bit late. He wants to be seen as powerful and synonymous with Russia.
    That's a very one-dimensional view of it. The aims(s) of these attacks may sit much deeper and more complex than that.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Foxy said:

    On topic, the question that is not asked enough is what the Russian government is trying to achieve. Its disruptive and unlawful policies are born of economic weakness and fear of encirclement, a wish to reassert regional domination not get world domination. It seeks la gloire and impact.

    The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.

    I asked exactly that question last week. ;)

    Our response has to be framed in the context of what Putin hopes to achieve, and we must attempt to deny him that.
    We could start with a public enquiry into how Putin's little helpers in UK and Europe are aided by both overt and covert means. In the US there is the Mueller enguiry, but we need the equivalent here to investigate those increasingly on the far right and even centre right have allowed themselves to become Putin's useful idiots. The Salisbury poisoning is despicable, but the poisoning of our political system much more threatening. The article below is from 2014, but when we see how things have developed, quite prescient:

    (Snip)
    Yet politically, the far left - in the form of Labour's top leadership - are currently acting as Putin's little helpers. They deserve just as much censure, if not more.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,825

    rkrkrk said:

    “The Tories must also stop union-bashing. Unions drive up workplace standards and lessen the need for state intervention...If the government wants to take on Corbyn, it should also boost health funding, build more affordable homes, introduce a German-style property speculation tax, and levy land-banking. Funding poverty alleviation and more apprenticeships with a wealth tax on the super-rich is also a must.”

    Probably about as close to a Labour endorsement as the Spectator can manage...
    You do get the amusing situation sometimes where Conservative supporters basically propose basically becoming Labour in order to stop Labour (this also happens in reverse) I think the basic idea is the enemy are evil and/or incompetent so having the good guys implement their ideas is okay.
    The ideas don’t matter so much as the judgement in how the putative PM will response to future events
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    FF43 said:

    On topic, the question that is not asked enough is what the Russian government is trying to achieve. Its disruptive and unlawful policies are born of economic weakness and fear of encirclement, a wish to reassert regional domination not get world domination. It seeks la gloire and impact.

    The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.

    Russia, or Putin in particular, wants the influence.and respect it lost when the USSR collapsed. It is strong enough to cause trouble but not strong enough to assert its will. It just occurred to me that Russia has essentially the same objective and situation as North Korea.

    The West is mostly ignoring Russia by neither punishing it very much, nor according it respect. In the same token Russia's aims are neither advanced nor prevented. But it probably works domestically and every country's foreign policy is ultimately domestic.
    Putin's Russia has tried to buy that respect by bribing FIFA to award it the World Cup. That is why there should be a large-scale boycott. We wouldn't have attended North Korea if it had bribed FIFA with the same intent of buying respect, would we?
    Yes, we would, because too many people treat football as if it is different.

    A hint for them: it isn't.

    Anyone going to the world cup is aiding Putin in his aims, whether player, pundit or supporter. Disrupting the Word Cup would be a great way of embarrassing the sport-loving Putin. And there are plenty of reasons for it to be disrupted.

    On a similar topic, the IOC's attitude to Russia and drugs has been totally shown up by the IPC for the paralympics. It's time the finances of top figures in FIFA and the IOC were looked into.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037
    Dreadful article. Russia is enemy number one (with the Orwellian propaganda campaign to match) because of its refusal to roll over and accept its encirclement by military bases and the destruction of its allies in the middle east -being one of only two countries that can effectively give the US imperial war machine the two fingers. Thats it. Whatever its dubious human rights aspects, they pale into insignificance in comparison to some of our allies that have visited with full red carpet recently.

    Still only nonsensical motives have been put forward as to why the already domestically popular Putin government would carry out an act guaranteed to harm its interests in the runup to a very prestigious international sporting event held on its territory, all to kill a spy that they had in prison themselves not so long ago.

    Most of the evidence seems to rest on the testimony of an obvious fantasist defector (just check out his Amazon ebook ffs) and that Russia are ‘being sarcastic’.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,782
    Ishmael_Z said:



    You think proposing that we comply with our treaty obligations is "populist bullshit?"

    We wouldn't be reneging if we had left NATO which is the hypothetical future posited by the Natexit bus.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,383
    edited March 17

    Elliot said:

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
    Lost for the next election, but not necessarily for life, though that is a danger. Young people these days feel saddled with debt for the next couple decades, see house prices far out of reach for anything decent, and have to work very long hours in the post-80s culture that has developed. They feel exploited by bosses and landlords. Only be breaking that feeling will the Tories survive.
    Any explanation of why younger people have turned their backs on the Conservatives that doesn’t mention Brexit is worthless.
    Correct. If Brexit goes as expected we could well be witnessing the beginning of the slow death of Tory Britain.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,516
    edited March 17

    Jonathan said:

    On topic, the question that is not asked enough is what the Russian government is trying to achieve. Its disruptive and unlawful policies are born of economic weakness and fear of encirclement, a wish to reassert regional domination not get world domination. It seeks la gloire and impact.

    The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.

    I asked exactly that question last week. ;)

    Our response has to be framed in the context of what Putin hopes to achieve, and we must attempt to deny him that.
    Isn't that a bit late. He wants to be seen as powerful and synonymous with Russia.
    That's a very one-dimensional view of it. The aims(s) of these attacks may sit much deeper and more complex than that.
    Sure. Doesn't invalidate that Putin wants to be seen as the same as Russia and we help him when we bundle the terms together.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,237

    Roger said:

    Interesting interview with John Simpson on radio yesterday. He likes Putin and has a certain sympathy for him. He believes that if the West/America hadn't kicked Russia when it was down and instead embraced it the problems that we are seeing now wouldn't be happening. A persuasive argument.

    Maybe. Or maybe Russia would continue to be a problem, as an elite would still have plunderd the country's natural resources and institutions that develp them to obtain and retain obscene levels of wealth - and used whatever means required not to give that wealth back to the benefit of the Russian people.

    That the current Russian ruling elite treat the Russian people with as much contempt as the Tsars just makes the position of Corbyn and Milne even more difficult to fathom.
    Well quite. The idea that if we had been a bit nicer to Russia it would not be the kleptocracy it now is, and would be at worst a benevolent dictatorship is fanciful to the same degree as believing that if we all held hands and sung Kumbaya there would be no more wars.
    The advice that Rosie received from the West about the transition to a market democracy was pretty thin and consisted pretty much entirely of, "privatise everything, fast". I think phrases like "shock therapy" were also used. It wasn't good advice and made it easy for the wealth of the country to be looted by a small minority.

    However, the idea that the West is responsible for the political development of a country of 100+ million which possesses nuclear weapons is indicative of a deep-seated imperialist mind-set. The world isn't ours to put into order.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910
    I haven't read the comments yet but one thing I'd quibble with in David's piece is the idea that Putin "feels compelled to put on the facade of elections". Elections are a necessary part of giving his regime domestic legitimacy - they're not done for show to impress the outside world.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,550
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    You think proposing that we comply with our treaty obligations is "populist bullshit?"

    We wouldn't be reneging if we had left NATO which is the hypothetical future posited by the Natexit bus.

    OK. But why would Natexit get off the ground, given that we have to do it well in advance of needing to do it because a. it looks a bit feeble doing it as the tanks roll over the border b. I think there is a year delay in leaving taking effect and c. there is no visible appetite for it, which is d. for very good reasons? [It wouldn't, is the answer].
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,411
    JWisemann said:

    Dreadful article. Russia is enemy number one (with the Orwellian propaganda campaign to match) because of its refusal to roll over and accept its encirclement by military bases and the destruction of its allies in the middle east -being one of only two countries that can effectively give the US imperial war machine the two fingers. Thats it. Whatever its dubious human rights aspects, they pale into insignificance in comparison to some of our allies that have visited with full red carpet recently.

    Still only nonsensical motives have been put forward as to why the already domestically popular Putin government would carry out an act guaranteed to harm its interests in the runup to a very prestigious international sporting event held on its territory, all to kill a spy that they had in prison themselves not so long ago.

    Most of the evidence seems to rest on the testimony of an obvious fantasist defector (just check out his Amazon ebook ffs) and that Russia are ‘being sarcastic’.

    PB Bullsh*t Meter has just collapsed under the pressure of your interminable crap.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910
    I wonder if Sturgeon's been given a private assurance that a second EU referendum is going to happen?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,516
    Roger said:

    Elliot said:

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
    Lost for the next election, but not necessarily for life, though that is a danger. Young people these days feel saddled with debt for the next couple decades, see house prices far out of reach for anything decent, and have to work very long hours in the post-80s culture that has developed. They feel exploited by bosses and landlords. Only be breaking that feeling will the Tories survive.
    Any explanation of why younger people have turned their backs on the Conservatives that doesn’t mention Brexit is worthless.
    Correct. If Brexit goes as expected we could well be witnessing the beginning of the slow death of Tory Britain.
    Not true. The Tories have just relaunched their youth wing, which will no doubt help them reconnect with the under fifties.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Good article, except that Brexit - that perennial obsession of Remainers, which David has too, sadly, fallen for - has absolutely nothing to do with it.

    Let’s the whole post down.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,890
    JWisemann said:

    Dreadful article. Russia is enemy number one (with the Orwellian propaganda campaign to match) because of its refusal to roll over and accept its encirclement by military bases and the destruction of its allies in the middle east -being one of only two countries that can effectively give the US imperial war machine the two fingers. Thats it. Whatever its dubious human rights aspects, they pale into insignificance in comparison to some of our allies that have visited with full red carpet recently.

    Still only nonsensical motives have been put forward as to why the already domestically popular Putin government would carry out an act guaranteed to harm its interests in the runup to a very prestigious international sporting event held on its territory, all to kill a spy that they had in prison themselves not so long ago.

    Most of the evidence seems to rest on the testimony of an obvious fantasist defector (just check out his Amazon ebook ffs) and that Russia are ‘being sarcastic’.

    Killing off detectors doesn't harm Russia's government at all, rather the reverse.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Mr. Glenn, ironically, a second referendum for the EU could be used by the SNP as a precedent to try and get a second referendum on Scottish independence.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910
    edited March 17

    Good article, except that Brexit - that perennial obsession of Remainers, which David has too, sadly, fallen for - has absolutely nothing to do with it.

    Let’s the whole post down.

    From 2014:

    "Moscow is handing cash to the Front National and others in order to exploit popular dissent against the European Union."

    ..

    "The European far right and the Kremlin are united by their hostility to the EU. Since becoming president for the third time in 2012, Putin has been busy promoting his vision for a rival Eurasian Union."


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/08/russia-europe-right-putin-front-national-eu
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108

    I wonder if Sturgeon's been given a private assurance that a second EU referendum is going to happen?
    No.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,383
    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    If we don't as a nation think that, and given that there is no known way of arranging for Estonia's no-fault expulsion from NATO, we should ourselves leave, now.

    That'll be the next referendum after Brexit is 'done and dusted'. The side of the bus could say "Do you want 10,000 British troops to die and risk nuclear war to defend Estonia?" I'm pretty sure Leave NATO would win.

    But, then, neither 10,000 dead nor nuclear war is terribly likely. Indeed, the more ready NATO is to defend Estonia, the less likely it is that war would occur.
    One of the few plusses of a Corbyn premiership is that we would more than likely leave NATO and in a WORTHWHILE sense regain control.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,890
    If the Internet had existed 80 years ago, I'm sure we'd have heard similar arguments to those on modern social media. We're to blame for our treatment of Germany; Germany is our friend; who cares about the Czechs anyway; Germany is Christian; we can't do anything to stop Germany etc.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    FF43 said:

    On topic, the question that is not asked enough is what the Russian government is trying to achieve. Its disruptive and unlawful policies are born of economic weakness and fear of encirclement, a wish to reassert regional domination not get world domination. It seeks la gloire and impact.

    The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.

    Russia, or Putin in particular, wants the influence.and respect it lost when the USSR collapsed. It is strong enough to cause trouble but not strong enough to assert its will. It just occurred to me that Russia has essentially the same objective and situation as North Korea.

    The West is mostly ignoring Russia by neither punishing it very much, nor according it respect. In the same token Russia's aims are neither advanced nor prevented. But it probably works domestically and every country's foreign policy is ultimately domestic.
    Putin's Russia has tried to buy that respect by bribing FIFA to award it the World Cup. That is why there should be a large-scale boycott. We wouldn't have attended North Korea if it had bribed FIFA with the same intent of buying respect, would we?
    I think all Western nations pulling out of FIFA would hurt.

    But, it won’t happen. It’s like the IOC banning Russia from the Winter Olympics and then letting all there athletes complete under OAFR under the Olympic flag, whilst all their fans and families fly the Russian flag anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    Scott_P said:
    a) he wouldn't understand it and

    b) he'd pass it on to someone who would.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910
    Sean_F said:

    If the Internet had existed 80 years ago, I'm sure we'd have heard similar arguments to those on modern social media. We're to blame for our treatment of Germany; Germany is our friend; who cares about the Czechs anyway; Germany is Christian; we can't do anything to stop Germany etc.

    We had those arguments even without social media.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,669
    JWisemann said:

    Dreadful article. Russia is enemy number one (with the Orwellian propaganda campaign to match) because of its refusal to roll over and accept its encirclement by military bases and the destruction of its allies in the middle east -being one of only two countries that can effectively give the US imperial war machine the two fingers. Thats it. Whatever its dubious human rights aspects, they pale into insignificance in comparison to some of our allies that have visited with full red carpet recently.

    Still only nonsensical motives have been put forward as to why the already domestically popular Putin government would carry out an act guaranteed to harm its interests in the runup to a very prestigious international sporting event held on its territory, all to kill a spy that they had in prison themselves not so long ago.

    Most of the evidence seems to rest on the testimony of an obvious fantasist defector (just check out his Amazon ebook ffs) and that Russia are ‘being sarcastic’.

    Hi there. RCS has mentioned on here before that we have a fair number of Russian IP addresses on the site. Now fairly or otherwise, given your views people are likely to be a little suspicious as to your whereabouts. If you don't mind me asking, where are you based? In the UK?
  • saddosaddo Posts: 440
    Isn't the reality that Russia is a nasty paper tiger. Yes they have the largest geographical country in the world and a population of 144m , but their economy is significantly smaller than Italy.

    On top of that most of their wealth has been stolen by Putin and his cronies.

    Financial sanctions are already preventing them accessing their potential mineral wealth.

    Yes we should be concerned about how criminal the Russian state is, but if Italy had a new mussolini in power threatening the UK we wouldn't be all that worried.

    I'm not defending Russia at all, just saying how crap they are compared to their image and historic power.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,174
    Morning all,

    Just seen an advert for holiday lettings in Russia above the thread header. :lol:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,617

    JWisemann said:

    Dreadful article. Russia is enemy number one (with the Orwellian propaganda campaign to match) because of its refusal to roll over and accept its encirclement by military bases and the destruction of its allies in the middle east -being one of only two countries that can effectively give the US imperial war machine the two fingers. Thats it. Whatever its dubious human rights aspects, they pale into insignificance in comparison to some of our allies that have visited with full red carpet recently.

    Still only nonsensical motives have been put forward as to why the already domestically popular Putin government would carry out an act guaranteed to harm its interests in the runup to a very prestigious international sporting event held on its territory, all to kill a spy that they had in prison themselves not so long ago.

    Most of the evidence seems to rest on the testimony of an obvious fantasist defector (just check out his Amazon ebook ffs) and that Russia are ‘being sarcastic’.

    Hi there. RCS has mentioned on here before that we have a fair number of Russian IP addresses on the site. Now fairly or otherwise, given your views people are likely to be a little suspicious as to your whereabouts. If you don't mind me asking, where are you based? In the UK?
    Is that why he had an avatar of the Great Womble Putin for so long?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108

    JWisemann said:

    Dreadful article. Russia is enemy number one (with the Orwellian propaganda campaign to match) because of its refusal to roll over and accept its encirclement by military bases and the destruction of its allies in the middle east -being one of only two countries that can effectively give the US imperial war machine the two fingers. Thats it. Whatever its dubious human rights aspects, they pale into insignificance in comparison to some of our allies that have visited with full red carpet recently.

    Still only nonsensical motives have been put forward as to why the already domestically popular Putin government would carry out an act guaranteed to harm its interests in the runup to a very prestigious international sporting event held on its territory, all to kill a spy that they had in prison themselves not so long ago.

    Most of the evidence seems to rest on the testimony of an obvious fantasist defector (just check out his Amazon ebook ffs) and that Russia are ‘being sarcastic’.

    Hi there. RCS has mentioned on here before that we have a fair number of Russian IP addresses on the site. Now fairly or otherwise, given your views people are likely to be a little suspicious as to your whereabouts. If you don't mind me asking, where are you based? In the UK?
    It's comforting to know that we here on pb.com are such a lynch-pin of western imperialism that we are worthy of scrutiny by Putin's troll farms.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,617

    Sean_F said:

    If the Internet had existed 80 years ago, I'm sure we'd have heard similar arguments to those on modern social media. We're to blame for our treatment of Germany; Germany is our friend; who cares about the Czechs anyway; Germany is Christian; we can't do anything to stop Germany etc.

    We had those arguments even without social media.
    Three of them anyway. Strangely they were all put forward by the PM.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    I haven't read the comments yet but one thing I'd quibble with in David's piece is the idea that Putin "feels compelled to put on the facade of elections". Elections are a necessary part of giving his regime domestic legitimacy - they're not done for show to impress the outside world.

    That supports David’s point: they are there to give his regime both domestic credibility and international legitimacy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,035
    RobD said:

    How long has this thread been here? :p

    Carlotta was talking to herself for hours
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    saddo said:


    Yes we should be concerned about how criminal the Russian state is, but if Italy had a new mussolini in power threatening the UK we wouldn't be all that worried.

    Speak for yourself. 52% were worried enough to break away from an EU they saw as considerably less threatening than a new Italian tyrant....

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,550

    JWisemann said:

    Dreadful article. Russia is enemy number one (with the Orwellian propaganda campaign to match) because of its refusal to roll over and accept its encirclement by military bases and the destruction of its allies in the middle east -being one of only two countries that can effectively give the US imperial war machine the two fingers. Thats it. Whatever its dubious human rights aspects, they pale into insignificance in comparison to some of our allies that have visited with full red carpet recently.

    Still only nonsensical motives have been put forward as to why the already domestically popular Putin government would carry out an act guaranteed to harm its interests in the runup to a very prestigious international sporting event held on its territory, all to kill a spy that they had in prison themselves not so long ago.

    Most of the evidence seems to rest on the testimony of an obvious fantasist defector (just check out his Amazon ebook ffs) and that Russia are ‘being sarcastic’.

    Hi there. RCS has mentioned on here before that we have a fair number of Russian IP addresses on the site. Now fairly or otherwise, given your views people are likely to be a little suspicious as to your whereabouts. If you don't mind me asking, where are you based? In the UK?
    It's comforting to know that we here on pb.com are such a lynch-pin of western imperialism that we are worthy of scrutiny by Putin's troll farms.
    Typo - lynch-pyn.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,237
    On NATO, I still count myself as anti-war in general and anti the aggressive wars initiated by Britain and the US in particular, but I'm also a scientist.

    Natural experiments are not ideal, but sometimes they're all we have, and the differing post-Soviet experiences of the Baltic States (NATO and EU members) with Georgia and Ukraine (invaded and territory annexed) is compelling.

    I'm a convert to NATO membership. I support an increase in defence spending.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,174
    Steve Webb on a possible new type of pension. Apparently the universities (who are in dispute at moment) might be interested:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/financial-planning/dutch-style-collective-scheme-answer-uks-pension-crisis/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    Anyway, hope this weekend's snow doesn't bugger up too many people's plans.

    I shall hunker down and watch us get tonked by the Irish.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910

    I haven't read the comments yet but one thing I'd quibble with in David's piece is the idea that Putin "feels compelled to put on the facade of elections". Elections are a necessary part of giving his regime domestic legitimacy - they're not done for show to impress the outside world.

    That supports David’s point: they are there to give his regime both domestic credibility and international legitimacy.
    He doesn't need elections for international legitimacy - we have no problem dealing with the Chinese or Saudi leaders. It's all about maintaining control domestically.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 440

    Scott_P said:
    a) he wouldn't understand it and

    b) he'd pass it on to someone who would.
    How could Corbyn ever be PM when he obviously hasn't passed his security vetting? My guess is McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry won't have passed any more than basic level vetting either. How can they form a government if they cannot be trusted to get security briefings?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,383
    edited March 17
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Elliot said:

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
    Lost for the next election, but not necessarily for life, though that is a danger. Young people these days feel saddled with debt for the next couple decades, see house prices far out of reach for anything decent, and have to work very long hours in the post-80s culture that has developed. They feel exploited by bosses and landlords. Only be breaking that feeling will the Tories survive.
    Any explanation of why younger people have turned their backs on the Conservatives that doesn’t mention Brexit is worthless.
    Correct. If Brexit goes as expected we could well be witnessing the beginning of the slow death of Tory Britain.
    Not true. The Tories have just relaunched their youth wing, which will no doubt help them reconnect with the under fifties.
    Good news!

    Unfortunately for Labour old Solzhenhitsyn doesn't cut it anymore. Get Jess Phillips in and it'll be time to open the bubbly
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    edited March 17
    Ishmael_Z said:

    JWisemann said:

    Dreadful article. Russia is enemy number one (with the Orwellian propaganda campaign to match) because of its refusal to roll over and accept its encirclement by military bases and the destruction of its allies in the middle east -being one of only two countries that can effectively give the US imperial war machine the two fingers. Thats it. Whatever its dubious human rights aspects, they pale into insignificance in comparison to some of our allies that have visited with full red carpet recently.

    Still only nonsensical motives have been put forward as to why the already domestically popular Putin government would carry out an act guaranteed to harm its interests in the runup to a very prestigious international sporting event held on its territory, all to kill a spy that they had in prison themselves not so long ago.

    Most of the evidence seems to rest on the testimony of an obvious fantasist defector (just check out his Amazon ebook ffs) and that Russia are ‘being sarcastic’.

    Hi there. RCS has mentioned on here before that we have a fair number of Russian IP addresses on the site. Now fairly or otherwise, given your views people are likely to be a little suspicious as to your whereabouts. If you don't mind me asking, where are you based? In the UK?
    It's comforting to know that we here on pb.com are such a lynch-pin of western imperialism that we are worthy of scrutiny by Putin's troll farms.
    Typo - lynch-pyn.
    Just testing to see whether the troll-farmers would spot it!

    It's a shoe-in they would :lol:

    EDIT oh, and it's lynchpin...no hyphen. Comrade.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Mr. Mark, was a bit surprise the side and front gates were frozen shut this morning. Somewhat relieved there wasn't more ice.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,035
    When will the truth be published. Any moron that believes the SUN has to be a dumb Tory.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,035

    JWisemann said:

    Dreadful article. Russia is enemy number one (with the Orwellian propaganda campaign to match) because of its refusal to roll over and accept its encirclement by military bases and the destruction of its allies in the middle east -being one of only two countries that can effectively give the US imperial war machine the two fingers. Thats it. Whatever its dubious human rights aspects, they pale into insignificance in comparison to some of our allies that have visited with full red carpet recently.

    Still only nonsensical motives have been put forward as to why the already domestically popular Putin government would carry out an act guaranteed to harm its interests in the runup to a very prestigious international sporting event held on its territory, all to kill a spy that they had in prison themselves not so long ago.

    Most of the evidence seems to rest on the testimony of an obvious fantasist defector (just check out his Amazon ebook ffs) and that Russia are ‘being sarcastic’.

    Hi there. RCS has mentioned on here before that we have a fair number of Russian IP addresses on the site. Now fairly or otherwise, given your views people are likely to be a little suspicious as to your whereabouts. If you don't mind me asking, where are you based? In the UK?
    It's comforting to know that we here on pb.com are such a lynch-pin of western imperialism that we are worthy of scrutiny by Putin's troll farms.
    People on here take themselves a bit too seriously and are deluded as to their importance more like.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 933
    Sean_F said:

    If the Internet had existed 80 years ago, I'm sure we'd have heard similar arguments to those on modern social media. We're to blame for our treatment of Germany; Germany is our friend; who cares about the Czechs anyway; Germany is Christian; we can't do anything to stop Germany etc.

    The 'we're to blame for our treatment of Germany' has had its own airing on internet forums a few times, an interesting argument which has some merit as a possible factor*, similarly with Russia.

    *Although I have seen it convincingly argued that it wasn't particularly harsh by the standard of previous recent treaties to the loser.

    I think we could have acted differently towards Russia and the results may have been different. Though I am thinking years gone by at the moment and in the last few years the Russians have generally chose confrontation over cooperation.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,110
    saddo said:

    Scott_P said:
    a) he wouldn't understand it and

    b) he'd pass it on to someone who would.
    How could Corbyn ever be PM when he obviously hasn't passed his security vetting? My guess is McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry won't have passed any more than basic level vetting either. How can they form a government if they cannot be trusted to get security briefings?
    Essentially, they don't follow the rules of foreign policy, and national security.

    But of course, democracy should take precedence over 'security'. It is another part of the Liberty vs security question which comes up again and again in history.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,795
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Elliot said:

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
    Lost for the next election, but not necessarily for life, though that is a danger. Young people these days feel saddled with debt for the next couple decades, see house prices far out of reach for anything decent, and have to work very long hours in the post-80s culture that has developed. They feel exploited by bosses and landlords. Only be breaking that feeling will the Tories survive.
    Any explanation of why younger people have turned their backs on the Conservatives that doesn’t mention Brexit is worthless.
    Correct. If Brexit goes as expected we could well be witnessing the beginning of the slow death of Tory Britain.
    Not true. The Tories have just relaunched their youth wing, which will no doubt help them reconnect with the under fifties.
    And a very fine thing it was, if falling somewhat short in the youth quotient.

  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,481
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Elliot said:

    Good thread Mr Herdson - and as with topics like 'Nationalisation' those with direct experience of 'cold war' are most robust in their response:

    As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
    18-24: -16
    65+: +44

    From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
    18-24: +53
    65+: +77

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
    18-24: -7
    65+: +61

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
    18-24: -3
    65+: -46

    Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
    18-24: +13
    65+: +64

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf

    So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true

    For the Tories, 18-24 is totally lost. It is trendy to like Corbyn come what may.

    More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
    Lost for the next election, but not necessarily for life, though that is a danger. Young people these days feel saddled with debt for the next couple decades, see house prices far out of reach for anything decent, and have to work very long hours in the post-80s culture that has developed. They feel exploited by bosses and landlords. Only be breaking that feeling will the Tories survive.
    Any explanation of why younger people have turned their backs on the Conservatives that doesn’t mention Brexit is worthless.
    Correct. If Brexit goes as expected we could well be witnessing the beginning of the slow death of Tory Britain.
    Not true. The Tories have just relaunched their youth wing, which will no doubt help them reconnect with the under fifties.
    Good news!

    Unfortunately for Labour old Solzhenhitsyn doesn't cut it anymore. Get Jess Phillips in and it'll be time to open the bubbly
    Jess Philipps is perhaps the only Labour MP I have heard consensus criticism of in young left wing forums.
This discussion has been closed.