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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Oh those Russians, you may have just ended the Labour party as

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  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 141
    T

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DaveW said:

    See TSE is making the same school boy error that Momentum have been making. Survation may have been the most accurate polling company at the election. That does not mean given methodology changes that they are the most accurate now.



    Survation also was the only pollster to underestimate the Tory lead and overestimate the Labour voteshare
    Wrong. They also underestimated the Labour share by 1%
    Survation had Labour on 40.4% and they got 39.9% (at a UK level), they also had the Tories on 41% and the Tories got 42% UK wide and 43% GB wide
    Wrong, wrong, and more wrong.

    The final Survation poll GB wide not UK wide, it had Labour on 40.4%, and Labour in Great Britain polled 41%.

    There's no harm in admitting you were wrong when you said Survation overestimated the Labour vote share which is factually incorrect.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Survation-GE2017-Final-Poll-2d7l9l8.pdf
    TSE continuing his role as one of the best contrarian political indicators.

    McDonnell today putting yet more clear blue water between himself and Corbyn. Also, endorsing Mays approach to Russia. All of which suggests he is rather more concerned about the impact of this affair on Labour’s vote than TSE.

    I know which one I think is the better indicator...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,587

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    And yet the media (including it seems Brillo) are obsessed by Eck & his show. I wonder why?
    I don't think it is exactly rocket science. They don't like him, plus he's a once powerful figure no longer as central to things as he used to be, so that his show apparently gets few viewers is fun for them to focus on
    I hadn't realised that the news media was so much concerned with fun. What do you think was behind their fixation with Eck & RT before a single show had been screened?

    Personalities in the news media obviously are concerned with fun, in mocking the influential and once influential, and of celebrating negative changes for people and parties they don't like. Whether they should be is another matter. As for their fixation with Salmond and RT beforehand, the same reason - they don't like Salmond and RT, reportedly, is a propaganda station (though I've never seen it to judge). I cannot figure out what you might be implying as if there's more to their interest than that.
    I think Yoons and their enthusiastic media mouthpieces have to decide whether Salmond is an irrelevant has-been with little or no influence that nopbody watches on RT, or a dangerous Putinist propagandist giving credibilty to totalitarianism. Currently they seem to think that he's performing the impressive trick of being both.
    In fairness Ed M had the same issue - for most of the time he was portrayed as weak, so it didn't really fly when there was a brief switch to suggest he was dangerous.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,322

    T

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DaveW said:

    See TSE is making the same school boy error that Momentum have been making. Survation may have been the most accurate polling company at the election. That does not mean given methodology changes that they are the most accurate now.



    Survation also was the only pollster to underestimate the Tory lead and overestimate the Labour voteshare
    Wrong. They also underestimated the Labour share by 1%
    Survation had Labour on 40.4% and they got 39.9% (at a UK level), they also had the Tories on 41% and the Tories got 42% UK wide and 43% GB wide
    Wrong, wrong, and more wrong.

    The final Survation poll GB wide not UK wide, it had Labour on 40.4%, and Labour in Great Britain polled 41%.

    There's no harm in admitting you were wrong when you said Survation overestimated the Labour vote share which is factually incorrect.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Survation-GE2017-Final-Poll-2d7l9l8.pdf
    TSE continuing his role as one of the best contrarian political indicators.

    McDonnell today putting yet more clear blue water between himself and Corbyn. Also, endorsing Mays approach to Russia. All of which suggests he is rather more concerned about the impact of this affair on Labour’s vote than TSE.

    I know which one I think is the better indicator...
    I think he is rather more concerned about his progress towards becoming Leader. He is clearly on the move.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,678

    I think Yoons and their enthusiastic media mouthpieces have to decide whether Salmond is an irrelevant has-been with little or no influence that nopbody watches on RT, or a dangerous Putinist propagandist giving credibilty to totalitarianism. Currently they seem to think that he's performing the impressive trick of being both.

    Is Salmond is an irrelevant has-been with little or no influence that nopbody watches on RT?

    Yes

    Is Salmond giving credibilty to totalitarianism?

    Yes

    Next!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,446
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    The name is utterly rubbish.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,652

    T

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DaveW said:

    See TSE is making the same school boy error that Momentum have been making. Survation may have been the most accurate polling company at the election. That does not mean given methodology changes that they are the most accurate now.



    Survation also was the only pollster to underestimate the Tory lead and overestimate the Labour voteshare
    Wrong. They also underestimated the Labour share by 1%
    Survation had Labour on 40.4% and they got 39.9% (at a UK level), they also had the Tories on 41% and the Tories got 42% UK wide and 43% GB wide
    Wrong, wrong, and more wrong.

    The final Survation poll GB wide not UK wide, it had Labour on 40.4%, and Labour in Great Britain polled 41%.

    There's no harm in admitting you were wrong when you said Survation overestimated the Labour vote share which is factually incorrect.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Survation-GE2017-Final-Poll-2d7l9l8.pdf
    TSE continuing his role as one of the best contrarian political indicators.

    McDonnell today putting yet more clear blue water between himself and Corbyn. Also, endorsing Mays approach to Russia. All of which suggests he is rather more concerned about the impact of this affair on Labour’s vote than TSE.

    I know which one I think is the better indicator...
    Clear red water, surely? Although the water may be red but distinctly tainted if Macdonnell goes in for a kill...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,891


    Seriously, to kill the guy a bullet in the back of the head would be much more certain and no less deniable.

    You could have said that about Litvinenko or Markov - but they were both taken out in extreme ways.

    Why was an ice axe chosen as the way of dispatching Trotsky? Again a bullet would have far simpler.

    The Soviets and their heirs have always had a penchant for theatrical assassinations. Sometimes they do things quietly, sometimes they do things to really get noticed.

    I can't imagine why - I don't think there is a rational basis for their choices other than to send messages to the wider world not just their intended class of victim.
    It all becomes clear when you realise how the internet has infantilised every aspect of political life. The killings are simply Russia trolling us, for lulz.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,587
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-africa-43425173/zimbabwe-s-ousted-robert-mugabe-we-must-undo-this-disgrace

    I see Mugabe has apparently decided not to slink away quietly after all. He seems to have forgotten that people like his deputy turned against him because he turned against them as well.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 274

    By 2019, the Corbynisation of the Labour machine will be nearing completion. He is likely, therefore, to be replaced (whenever that happens) by a fellow traveller - who certainly won't seek to change the system that got them elected.

    I cannot see a way back for 'Realistic' Labour in the short or medium term. The membership has been skewed by the changes implemented by Miliband and thus control has shifted leftwards. Unless a moderate version of Momentum is established and use those same membership rules to flood the party with new moderate voices, regaining control of the party machine will be very, very difficult. Indeed if such a body were to be established, I can see how the Corbyn inner circle would suddenly demand a purity test for all new members to keep out incoming moderates.

    We need a moderate left of centre opposition party. A party that is loyal to the interests of the Nation. A party that deals with those who use violent language as part of political discourse by kicking them out - no matter how senior they are. A party that refuses to give home to those who indulge in anti-semitism. A party that does not cosy up to extremists round the world.

    Corbyn has demonstrated that he is not willing to do those things.

    They may not succeed but if someone had the gumption to build a new movement on the centre left, then they would earn the respect of those in the political class for doing what is right rather than just sitting muttering in the background.

    Hear, hear!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,446
    Just finished Kingdom Come Deliverance. Very good game, although not without its bugs. And, as someone into history, a game with a heavy emphasis on realism and set in 1403 is really rather nice.
  • T

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DaveW said:

    See TSE is making the same school boy error that Momentum have been making. Survation may have been the most accurate polling company at the election. That does not mean given methodology changes that they are the most accurate now.



    Survation also was the only pollster to underestimate the Tory lead and overestimate the Labour voteshare
    Wrong. They also underestimated the Labour share by 1%
    Survation had Labour on 40.4% and they got 39.9% (at a UK level), they also had the Tories on 41% and the Tories got 42% UK wide and 43% GB wide
    Wrong, wrong, and more wrong.

    The final Survation poll GB wide not UK wide, it had Labour on 40.4%, and Labour in Great Britain polled 41%.

    There's no harm in admitting you were wrong when you said Survation overestimated the Labour vote share which is factually incorrect.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Survation-GE2017-Final-Poll-2d7l9l8.pdf
    TSE continuing his role as one of the best contrarian political indicators.

    McDonnell today putting yet more clear blue water between himself and Corbyn. Also, endorsing Mays approach to Russia. All of which suggests he is rather more concerned about the impact of this affair on Labour’s vote than TSE.

    I know which one I think is the better indicator...
    Back in August 2016 I wrote

    There’s a danger that we’re underestimating the Labour leader......Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

    So I'm quite happy with my analysis on Corbyn and the country.

    Perhaps you can tell me where I went wrong with that thread.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,587
    edited March 18

    Just finished Kingdom Come Deliverance. Very good game, although not without its bugs. And, as someone into history, a game with a heavy emphasis on realism and set in 1403 is really rather nice.

    I'm about 60 hours in. It's buggy as hell, but much more absorbing than games with many similar mechanics that I've played - I've never felt interested enough to read books, or craft potions in something like Skyrim, not download mods for it or Fallout games to put in hunger and thirst mechanics, but KCD did draw me in that way, and it's challenging but not punishing in a way that I find Dragon Age to be (albeit through vastly different mechanics) where if you don't pay attention even random enemies can take you down.

    Well worth the price, but it is a shame it is so bug ridden, and that due to being a small company it will take years and years to make a sequel no doubt.

    In fact, I think I'll get back to it, now I've finished my undercover stint in a monastery.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,368
    Scott_P said:

    I think Yoons and their enthusiastic media mouthpieces have to decide whether Salmond is an irrelevant has-been with little or no influence that nopbody watches on RT, or a dangerous Putinist propagandist giving credibilty to totalitarianism. Currently they seem to think that he's performing the impressive trick of being both.

    Is Salmond is an irrelevant has-been with little or no influence that nopbody watches on RT?

    Yes

    Is Salmond giving credibilty to totalitarianism?

    Yes

    Next!
    Schrodinger's Yoon strikes again.

    I guess you lads are used to simultaneously contradictory ideas.


  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,678

    I guess you lads are used to simultaneously contradictory ideas.

    They are not contradictory. And neither is your example.

    Next!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,446
    Mr. kle4, indeed. Although the strong sales will help.

    There are many bugs, though I've only encountered two that affected quests (one was mended when I returned day later, the other had an alternative path I took).

    Early on, I chanced upon a random enemy with lots of armour. And it was odd to realise I was worried about that, whereas in Skyrim it really doesn't matter. I hope the success of the game encourages others to adopt certain aspects of it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,368
    edited March 18
    Scott_P said:

    I guess you lads are used to simultaneously contradictory ideas.

    They are not contradictory. And neither is your example.

    Next!
    Is in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote agreeing that there should be another Indy ref contradictory to your position now?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 764
    Polls closed in Moscow and St Petersburg.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,709

    DavidL said:

    This kind of stuff makes me feel old. Back when I was at University the wettest of wet tories (even then) was seriously interested in a new party called the SDP and became a founder member. I subsequently stood as a candidate and was area party secretary for some years. I attended various conferences and helped fight bye elections. It was exciting but ultimately a very frustrating process.

    FPTP is a phenomenal hurdle for a new party to get over as is the essential conservatism of the British people. This applies not only with the electorate but with those that join. In Dundee and Angus we were heavy with disappointed old Labour types who felt that they should still be councillors. It really wasn't a help. It also taught me that being a member of a party involves a lot of compromises and supporting things you don't especially agree with (Europe, even then). In an established party people tend to know and do this but in a new party the tendency to splinter is much greater. Once you have left one party on your principles it is much easier to leave a second. People came and went and money was very tight.

    I don't regret being in the SDP but the odds against a grouping like this having any significant impact are huge. They would be better off trying to persuade Labour (or even the Tories) to adopt the policies they want. Otherwise they risk, at best, splitting the vote.

    They might consider setting up a cross-party campaign for PR. Otherwise, splits usually lead to oblivion. PR makes splits easier to survive electorally, even if a new party is inherently a bit less stable than an old one.

    UKIP seems to demonstrate how unstable a new party can be ...
    Ironically, in the event that this pro-EU movement got what it wanted on the EU and on PR, it would have concocted the perfect recipe to make UKIP relevant again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,258
    edited March 18
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/dhothersall/status/975405313078845440

    What is doubly weird these are the same people who are the most vocal about the evils of trump and what an outrage his election was, despite alleged Russian involvement, wikileaks clinton email leak and Murray working for wikileaks .

    But then the cult will denounce the likes of Greer as bigoted transphobe while themselves spreading anti-jewish stuff.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,652

    Polls closed in Moscow and St Petersburg.

    Does that mean the actual voting has now begun?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,258
    ydoethur said:

    Polls closed in Moscow and St Petersburg.

    Does that mean the actual voting has now begun?
    Isn't this when they hunt down all those who didn't vote for Putin for some re-education.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,825
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Back from an excellent brunch and a bracing walk which just goes to show you don't need ti live in provincial England to have a pleasant Sunday.

    A new party ? Well, yes. Let's not forget the SDP came very close to achieving that breakthrough and I well remember being out canvassing thirty-six years ago in a similarly cold late winter/early spring in a solid Conservative Ward and hearing that solid vote disintegrate in front of me.

    One week or so later, Galtieri decided on his insane foreign venture and both the Conservative AND Labour parties were saved. Had the May 1982 local elections happened without the Falklands, I wonder how London would have voted.

    As it was, the Conservatives lost 7% and Labour 9% with the Alliance quadrupling the former Liberal share to 24%.

    Anyway, that's history which doesn't often repeat itself exactly.

    Galtieri must have been receiving payment in used £10s for his services. It could also have swung the 1983 election. Thatcher's vote share fell by 1-2 percentage points *despite* the war but her majority rose from about 40 to 140 seats.
    It was the SDP which helped increase Thatcher's majority so much by splitting the centre left vote, Thatcher got 42% in 1983, the same as May got in 2017 but a landslide majority under FPTP rather than largest party in a hung parliament as the SDP/Alliance took 25% in 1983 and Labour just 3% more on 28%, whereas in 2017 the LDs got just 7% and Labour got 40%.
    In all likelihood, the outcome would have been something like 48/34 to the Conservatives, in 1983, without the SDP.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 141

    T

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DaveW said:

    See TSE is making the same school boy error that Momentum have been making. Survation may have been the most accurate polling company at the election. That does not mean given methodology changes that they are the most accurate now.



    Survation also was the only pollster to underestimate the Tory lead and overestimate the Labour voteshare
    Wrong. They also underestimated the Labour share by 1%
    Survation had Labour on 40.4% and they got 39.9% (at a UK level), they also had the Tories on 41% and the Tories got 42% UK wide and 43% GB wide
    Wrong, wrong, and more wrong.

    The final Survation poll GB wide not UK wide, it had Labour on 40.4%, and Labour in Great Britain polled 41%.

    There's no harm in admitting you were wrong when you said Survation overestimated the Labour vote share which is factually incorrect.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Survation-GE2017-Final-Poll-2d7l9l8.pdf
    TSE continuing his role as one of the best contrarian political indicators.

    McDonnell today putting yet more clear blue water between himself and Corbyn. Also, endorsing Mays approach to Russia. All of which suggests he is rather more concerned about the impact of this affair on Labour’s vote than TSE.

    I know which one I think is the better indicator...
    Back in August 2016 I wrote

    There’s a danger that we’re underestimating the Labour leader......Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

    So I'm quite happy with my analysis on Corbyn and the country.

    Perhaps you can tell me where I went wrong with that thread.
    Bully for you. Plenty of us were concerned then about the complacency surrounding the Corbyn threat. But that was then and this is now. It’s much more in the price now.

    Its also clear that many in the Labour Party (even within the Corbynite wing) are extremely concerned about the way this is all playing out for Corbyn and for Labour. Add deselections in the offing and I’m now much more confident we’ll see some defections.

  • MJWMJW Posts: 475
    Essexit said:

    DavidL said:

    ...

    Ironically, in the event that this pro-EU movement got what it wanted on the EU and on PR, it would have concocted the perfect recipe to make UKIP relevant again.
    Well of course. And it wouldn't be particularly


    Seriously, to kill the guy a bullet in the back of the head would be much more certain and no less deniable.

    You could have said that about Litvinenko or Markov - but they were both taken out in extreme ways.

    Why was an ice axe chosen as the way of dispatching Trotsky? Again a bullet would have far simpler.

    The Soviets and their heirs have always had a penchant for theatrical assassinations. Sometimes they do things quietly, sometimes they do things to really get noticed.

    I can't imagine why - I don't think there is a rational basis for their choices other than to send messages to the wider world not just their intended class of victim.
    Also, a bullet requires you to be close to the crime and thus liable to be apprehended. In both the Litvenenko and Salisbury case, the method seems to have allowed the perpetrators to either keep or put distance between themselves and the crime before the authorities knew exactly what they were dealing with.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,723
    Has Putin lost yet?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,322
    edited March 18
    MJW said:

    Also, a bullet requires you to be close to the crime and thus liable to be apprehended. In both the Litvenenko and Salisbury case, the method seems to have allowed the perpetrators to either keep or put distance between themselves and the crime before the authorities knew exactly what they were dealing with.

    Long range snipers don't need to be close at all.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,939
    edited March 18

    T

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DaveW said:

    Wrong. They also underestimated the Labour share by 1%
    Survation had Labour on 40.4% and they got 39.9% (at a UK level), they also had the Tories on 41% and the Tories got 42% UK wide and 43% GB wide
    Wrong, wrong, and more wrong.

    The final Survation poll GB wide not UK wide, it had Labour on 40.4%, and Labour in Great Britain polled 41%.

    There's no harm in admitting you were wrong when you said Survation overestimated the Labour vote share which is factually incorrect.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Survation-GE2017-Final-Poll-2d7l9l8.pdf
    TSE continuing his role as one of the best contrarian political indicators.

    McDonnell today putting yet more clear blue water between himself and Corbyn. Also, endorsing Mays approach to Russia. All of which suggests he is rather more concerned about the impact of this affair on Labour’s vote than TSE.

    I know which one I think is the better indicator...
    Back in August 2016 I wrote

    There’s a danger that we’re underestimating the Labour leader......Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

    So I'm quite happy with my analysis on Corbyn and the country.

    Perhaps you can tell me where I went wrong with that thread.
    Bully for you. Plenty of us were concerned then about the complacency surrounding the Corbyn threat. But that was then and this is now. It’s much more in the price now.

    Its also clear that many in the Labour Party (even within the Corbynite wing) are extremely concerned about the way this is all playing out for Corbyn and for Labour. Add deselections in the offing and I’m now much more confident we’ll see some defections.

    I agree, assuming I read your comment correctly. I'm sure there will be some defecations by the moderate wing of the labour party before the next election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,652
    philiph said:

    T

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DaveW said:

    Wrong. They also underestimated the Labour share by 1%
    Survation had Labour on 40.4% and they got 39.9% (at a UK level), they also had the Tories on 41% and the Tories got 42% UK wide and 43% GB wide
    Wrong, wrong, and more wrong.

    The final Survation poll GB wide not UK wide, it had Labour on 40.4%, and Labour in Great Britain polled 41%.

    There's no harm in admitting you were wrong when you said Survation overestimated the Labour vote share which is factually incorrect.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Survation-GE2017-Final-Poll-2d7l9l8.pdf
    TSE continuing his role as one of the best contrarian political indicators.

    McDonnell today putting yet more clear blue water between himself and Corbyn. Also, endorsing Mays approach to Russia. All of which suggests he is rather more concerned about the impact of this affair on Labour’s vote than TSE.

    I know which one I think is the better indicator...
    Back in August 2016 I wrote

    There’s a danger that we’re underestimating the Labour leader......Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

    So I'm quite happy with my analysis on Corbyn and the country.

    Perhaps you can tell me where I went wrong with that thread.
    Bully for you. Plenty of us were concerned then about the complacency surrounding the Corbyn threat. But that was then and this is now. It’s much more in the price now.

    Its also clear that many in the Labour Party (even within the Corbynite wing) are extremely concerned about the way this is all playing out for Corbyn and for Labour. Add deselections in the offing and I’m now much more confident we’ll see some defections.

    I agree, assuming I read your comment correctly. I'm sure there will be some defecations by the moderate wing of the labour party before the next election.
    Is that a Freudian slip? Or do you just think they're a bunch of...
  • DjayMDjayM Posts: 4
    Perhaps they spoke to Soubry after wine o'clock.

    But why she was ever selected to represent the Con Party I shall never know.

    Once a LimpDim always a LimpDim
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,939
    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    T

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DaveW said:

    Wrong. They also underestimated the Labour share by 1%
    Survation had Labour on 40.4% and they got 39.9% (at a UK level), they also had the Tories on 41% and the Tories got 42% UK wide and 43% GB wide
    Wrong, wrong, and more wrong.

    The final Survation poll GB wide not UK wide, it had Labour on 40.4%, and Labour in Great Britain polled 41%.

    There's no harm in admitting you were wrong when you said Survation overestimated the Labour vote share which is factually incorrect.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Survation-GE2017-Final-Poll-2d7l9l8.pdf
    TSE continuing his role as one of the best contrarian political indicators.

    McDonnell today putting yet more clear blue water between himself and Corbyn. Also, endorsing Mays approach to Russia. All of which suggests he is rather more concerned about the impact of this affair on Labour’s vote than TSE.

    I know which one I think is the better indicator...
    Back in August 2016 I wrote

    There’s a danger that we’re underestimating the Labour leader......Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

    So I'm quite happy with my analysis on Corbyn and the country.

    Perhaps you can tell me where I went wrong with that thread.
    Bully for you. Plenty of us were concerned then about the complacency surrounding the Corbyn threat. But that was then and this is now. It’s much more in the price now.

    Its also clear that many in the Labour Party (even within the Corbynite wing) are extremely concerned about the way this is all playing out for Corbyn and for Labour. Add deselections in the offing and I’m now much more confident we’ll see some defections.

    I agree, assuming I read your comment correctly. I'm sure there will be some defecations by the moderate wing of the labour party before the next election.
    Is that a Freudian slip? Or do you just think they're a bunch of...
    That would be very messy in your slip (assuming toy wear one).
    No error or unfortunate auto correct.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,825

    T

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DaveW said:

    See TSE is making the same school boy error that Momentum have been making. Survation may have been the most accurate polling company at the election. That does not mean given methodology changes that they are the most accurate now.



    Survation also was the only pollster to underestimate the Tory lead and overestimate the Labour voteshare
    Wrong. They also underestimated the Labour share by 1%
    Survation had Labour on 40.4% and they got 39.9% (at a UK level), they also had the Tories on 41% and the Tories got 42% UK wide and 43% GB wide
    Wrong, wrong, and more wrong.

    The final Survation poll GB wide not UK wide, it had Labour on 40.4%, and Labour in Great Britain polled 41%.

    There's no harm in admitting you were wrong when you said Survation overestimated the Labour vote share which is factually incorrect.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Survation-GE2017-Final-Poll-2d7l9l8.pdf
    TSE continuing his role as one of the best contrarian political indicators.

    McDonnell today putting yet more clear blue water between himself and Corbyn. Also, endorsing Mays approach to Russia. All of which suggests he is rather more concerned about the impact of this affair on Labour’s vote than TSE.

    I know which one I think is the better indicator...
    Back in August 2016 I wrote

    There’s a danger that we’re underestimating the Labour leader......Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

    So I'm quite happy with my analysis on Corbyn and the country.

    Perhaps you can tell me where I went wrong with that thread.
    O/T I just spotted out that South Yorkshire showed some pretty strong Conservative second places in June 2017, and the party won its biggest vote in Sheffield for quite some time. Do you think they could gain sow seats in the locals.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Polls closed in Moscow and St Petersburg.

    Presumably we won't have to wait too long for the results, as the votes were counted before the polls opened?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,446
    Mr. Elliot, an earlier article indicated an exit poll would be due 'late' today.
  • Kyle_KnoxKyle_Knox Posts: 6
    I think this "splitting" is nothing more but a storm in a bottle. Some MPs just got angry at Jeremy Corbyn's reaction was different from what they wanted and, acting like little children, started talking of splitting the party.

    I would understand the party splitting if Labour were in trouble and the opinion polls would show a bleak future, but this is far from the case. I doubt that a lot of MPs would join them. If they do not want to say "bye bye" to their political careers, that is.

    P. S., I am a new blogger and I blog about Politics, Economics and Society. I would greatly appreciate if you checked out my blog: http://www.kyleknox.co.uk
  • Sean_F said:


    O/T I just spotted out that South Yorkshire showed some pretty strong Conservative second places in June 2017, and the party won its biggest vote in Sheffield for quite some time. Do you think they could gain sow seats in the locals.

    I think that's unlikely, the Lib Dems seem best placed to pick up disgruntled Labour voters, and there's a lot of disgruntled voters because of the trees.

    I think the focus on South Yorkshire Conservatives is the Parliamentary seats like Penistone & Stocksbridge, Don Valley, Rother Valley, and maybe Sheffield Hallam.

    I think boundary changes might help with some of those but put the others out of reach.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,630
    The details of the Cambridge Analytical story are pretty extraordinary:
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/17/data-war-whistleblower-christopher-wylie-faceook-nix-bannon-trump
    And an illustration of why the survival of publications like the Guardian - whatever one might think of its editorial politics - is essential to a functioning democracy.

    Note the Cambridge faculty member who changed his name to "Dr Spectre"....

    Who said the fenland hellhole wasn't a nest of subversives... ?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,880
    https://sputniknews.com/russia-elections-2018/201803161062517712-russian-presidential-election/

    Sputnik appears to suggest that results will follow the final poll close in twenty minutes, which implies fairly quickly...

    I'm testing my Russian geography.

    The Jewish Autonomous Oblast is a new one one me...
  • https://sputniknews.com/russia-elections-2018/201803161062517712-russian-presidential-election/

    Sputnik appears to suggest that results will follow the final poll close in twenty minutes, which implies fairly quickly...

    I'm testing my Russian geography.

    The Jewish Autonomous Oblast is a new one one me...

    FOAK says

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_Autonomous_Oblast
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,652
    philiph said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:


    I agree, assuming I read your comment correctly. I'm sure there will be some defecations by the moderate wing of the labour party before the next election.

    Is that a Freudian slip? Or do you just think they're a bunch of...
    That would be very messy in your slip (assuming toy wear one).
    No error or unfortunate auto correct.
    Autocorrect really is screaming you around, isn't it? :tongue:
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534
    Scott_P said:

    I think Yoons and their enthusiastic media mouthpieces have to decide whether Salmond is an irrelevant has-been with little or no influence that nopbody watches on RT, or a dangerous Putinist propagandist giving credibilty to totalitarianism. Currently they seem to think that he's performing the impressive trick of being both.

    Is Salmond is an irrelevant has-been with little or no influence that nopbody watches on RT?

    Yes

    Is Salmond giving credibilty to totalitarianism?

    Yes

    Next!
    LOL, next to that towering colossus May ........... oh wait ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,630
    DjayM said:

    Perhaps they spoke to Soubry after wine o'clock.

    But why she was ever selected to represent the Con Party I shall never know.

    Once a LimpDim always a LimpDim

    If all you have to bring to the party is insults, you might at least try to make them entertaining.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,878
    edited March 18
    Nigelb said:

    DjayM said:

    Perhaps they spoke to Soubry after wine o'clock.

    But why she was ever selected to represent the Con Party I shall never know.

    Once a LimpDim always a LimpDim

    If all you have to bring to the party is insults, you might at least try to make them entertaining.

    Make them accurate too, she was never in the SDP, Chris Grayling on the other hand...
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,939
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    I think Yoons and their enthusiastic media mouthpieces have to decide whether Salmond is an irrelevant has-been with little or no influence that nopbody watches on RT, or a dangerous Putinist propagandist giving credibilty to totalitarianism. Currently they seem to think that he's performing the impressive trick of being both.

    Is Salmond is an irrelevant has-been with little or no influence that nopbody watches on RT?

    Yes

    Is Salmond giving credibilty to totalitarianism?

    Yes

    Next!
    LOL, next to that towering colossus May ........... oh wait ?
    I blame my eye sight, phone and auto correct in that order.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,534
    philiph said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    I think Yoons and their enthusiastic media mouthpieces have to decide whether Salmond is an irrelevant has-been with little or no influence that nopbody watches on RT, or a dangerous Putinist propagandist giving credibilty to totalitarianism. Currently they seem to think that he's performing the impressive trick of being both.

    Is Salmond is an irrelevant has-been with little or no influence that nopbody watches on RT?

    Yes

    Is Salmond giving credibilty to totalitarianism?

    Yes

    Next!
    LOL, next to that towering colossus May ........... oh wait ?
    I blame my eye sight, phone and auto correct in that order.
    Given it was a Scottp post I believe you
  • MJWMJW Posts: 475

    MJW said:

    Also, a bullet requires you to be close to the crime and thus liable to be apprehended. In both the Litvenenko and Salisbury case, the method seems to have allowed the perpetrators to either keep or put distance between themselves and the crime before the authorities knew exactly what they were dealing with.

    Long range snipers don't need to be close at all.
    They still have to be in the same area - which police may be able to lock down pretty effectively - and security services would immediately be alert to what had happened. There's a fair chance any assassin doesn't manage to get out of the country and out of the reach of a European arrest warrant. Compare that to polonium, which took days for Litvinenko to be hospitalised and weeks before it was confirmed how he had died - by which time the suspects were safely back in Russia. The novichok appears to have been placed somewhere the ex-spy would inhale it at a later time - again giving any agent ample time to get away or not having to go near the scene of the crime at all.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 141
    Kyle_Knox said:

    I think this "splitting" is nothing more but a storm in a bottle. Some MPs just got angry at Jeremy Corbyn's reaction was different from what they wanted and, acting like little children, started talking of splitting the party.

    I would understand the party splitting if Labour were in trouble and the opinion polls would show a bleak future, but this is far from the case. I doubt that a lot of MPs would join them. If they do not want to say "bye bye" to their political careers, that is.

    P. S., I am a new blogger and I blog about Politics, Economics and Society. I would greatly appreciate if you checked out my blog: http://www.kyleknox.co.uk

    They willl be saying “bye bye” to their political careers regardless because Corbynistas see MPs as soviet-style delegates, not “Members” of Parliament. That is why they will split - they have no “fututre political careers” in Corbyn’s party anyway.

    (Corbyn is generally slipping behind in most polls, by the way.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,630

    https://sputniknews.com/russia-elections-2018/201803161062517712-russian-presidential-election/

    Sputnik appears to suggest that results will follow the final poll close in twenty minutes, which implies fairly quickly...

    I'm testing my Russian geography.

    The Jewish Autonomous Oblast is a new one one me...

    FOAK says

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_Autonomous_Oblast
    Interesting story - though the population movements were quite minor compared with some of those that Stalin instigated.
    Current Jewish population.... 0.2%.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,091
    Exit poll: Putin over 70%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,630
    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    Also, a bullet requires you to be close to the crime and thus liable to be apprehended. In both the Litvenenko and Salisbury case, the method seems to have allowed the perpetrators to either keep or put distance between themselves and the crime before the authorities knew exactly what they were dealing with.

    Long range snipers don't need to be close at all.
    They still have to be in the same area - which police may be able to lock down pretty effectively - and security services would immediately be alert to what had happened. There's a fair chance any assassin doesn't manage to get out of the country and out of the reach of a European arrest warrant. Compare that to polonium, which took days for Litvinenko to be hospitalised and weeks before it was confirmed how he had died - by which time the suspects were safely back in Russia. The novichok appears to have been placed somewhere the ex-spy would inhale it at a later time - again giving any agent ample time to get away or not having to go near the scene of the crime at all.
    And bringing in sniper rifles without detection is very probably a great deal more difficult than chemicals.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,880
    Exit poll shows put 73.9% of the vote
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,652

    Exit poll: Putin over 70%.

    Who will be the first announcer brave enough to say 'Putin looks to be over seventy....per cent'?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,207
    edited March 18

    https://sputniknews.com/russia-elections-2018/201803161062517712-russian-presidential-election/

    Sputnik appears to suggest that results will follow the final poll close in twenty minutes, which implies fairly quickly...

    I'm testing my Russian geography.

    The Jewish Autonomous Oblast is a new one one me...

    IIRC at the last Russian election statisticians in the West were able to tell that some of the voting figures had been manipulated by doing an analysis of the numbers. Apparently in a normal election you get a random pattern of the figures themselves and this wasn't the case with a lot of the declared voting numbers.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 141

    Nigelb said:

    DjayM said:

    Perhaps they spoke to Soubry after wine o'clock.

    But why she was ever selected to represent the Con Party I shall never know.

    Once a LimpDim always a LimpDim

    If all you have to bring to the party is insults, you might at least try to make them entertaining.

    Make them accurate too, she was never in the SDP, Chris Grayling on the other hand...
    Well she certainly denies it. But there is some debate about this so I don’t think you can be so certain.One or two conservatives of the time are convinced that she did defect.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 764
    edited March 18
    73.9% :blush:

    Edit - maybe not. Sputnik typo. Maybe they didn't get the memo?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,455
    FPT:
    "
    Totally and wildly O/T but for some reason, while we were in Thailand, my wife and I recorded the C4 series 'The Biggest Little Railway in the World', a description of how a group of (I thought) quintessentially English eccentrics who set out to set a new world record, to build the longest model railway in history stretching 71 miles across Scotland from Fort William to Inverness.

    It is utterly and completely bonkers, and as a result hilarious. I say English because the only accent-identifiable Scot I've seen so far was someone who piped the engine into one of the stations.

    Any PB'er who can find it, I urge them to watch it.
    "

    I wholeheartedly agree. I started watching the series without Mrs J, who is generally uninterested in trains, modelling, or Scotland (sorry, Malc). She walked in, asked "what is this rubbish?" and after a few minutes was avidly watching it.

    A really eccentric program about eccentrics.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,237

    Exit poll shows put 73.9% of the vote

    FFS
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,880
    Traditional polls are crap in Russia, I wonder about exit polls...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,880
    Putin Wins Russian Presidential Election With 71.97 Percent of Votes After 21.33 Percent of Ballots Counted - Election Commission
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,455
    Nigelb said:

    The details of the Cambridge Analytical story are pretty extraordinary:
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/17/data-war-whistleblower-christopher-wylie-faceook-nix-bannon-trump
    And an illustration of why the survival of publications like the Guardian - whatever one might think of its editorial politics - is essential to a functioning democracy.

    Note the Cambridge faculty member who changed his name to "Dr Spectre"....

    Who said the fenland hellhole wasn't a nest of subversives... ?

    This subversive just accidentally (*) went for dinner at the newly-opened Ivy Brasserie in that Fenland hellhole. It was rather good. I don't think that other inferior place has an Ivy yet? ;)

    (*) We were going to Waggamammas, but ended up at the Ivy. I never thought I'd say that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,652

    Putin Wins Russian Presidential Election With 71.97 Percent of Votes After 21.33 Percent of Ballots Counted - Election Commission

    Now THAT is so gloriously unselfaware that it is actually funny.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,880
    ydoethur said:

    Putin Wins Russian Presidential Election With 71.97 Percent of Votes After 21.33 Percent of Ballots Counted - Election Commission

    Now THAT is so gloriously unselfaware that it is actually funny.
    thw question is where those ballots are. In 2012, the east and south was more Putin friendly
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,939

    Traditional polls are crap in Russia, I wonder about exit polls...

    I assume they have had a week or so to sample the completed sealed ballot boxes, so they have a good chance of proving the statistical magnificence of the Russian nation
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,825

    Exit poll: Putin over 70%.

    A hard-fought contest.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,652
    edited March 18

    ydoethur said:

    Putin Wins Russian Presidential Election With 71.97 Percent of Votes After 21.33 Percent of Ballots Counted - Election Commission

    Now THAT is so gloriously unselfaware that it is actually funny.
    thw question is where those ballots are. In 2012, the east and south was more Putin friendly
    I was suggesting that it's quite remarkable to suggest he has 72% of the vote when they have only counted 21.33% of the ballots.

    It rather implies the other 78.67% have been discarded...
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,709
    Thanks to whoever tipped Putin 70-80% @17/4 some weeks ago.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    AndyJS said:

    https://sputniknews.com/russia-elections-2018/201803161062517712-russian-presidential-election/

    Sputnik appears to suggest that results will follow the final poll close in twenty minutes, which implies fairly quickly...

    I'm testing my Russian geography.

    The Jewish Autonomous Oblast is a new one one me...

    IIRC at the last Russian election statisticians in the West were able to tell that some of the voting figures had been manipulated by doing an analysis of the numbers. Apparently in a normal election you get a random pattern of the figures themselves and this wasn't the case with a lot of the declared voting numbers.
    ISTR that too, although it’s bloody difficult now to google for Russian election interference without getting a million American links. IIRC something like half the published district results ended in 0 or 5, when of course it should only be 20% if it were as random as these things should be.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,293

    73.9% :blush:

    Edit - maybe not. Sputnik typo. Maybe they didn't get the memo?

    73% is a good percentage. Emphatic but not ridiculous. I would have chosen that percentage too.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,207
    Russia Today TV — "Putin leads with 22% of votes counted".
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,880
    The question is whether 72% is the actual proportion of the votes so far, or an extrapolation.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,084
    edited March 18
    If you had staked a million on Putin you would have won 6p.

    Gutted. Never saw that result .
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,237
    FF43 said:

    73.9% :blush:

    Edit - maybe not. Sputnik typo. Maybe they didn't get the memo?

    73% is a good percentage. Emphatic but not ridiculous. I would have chosen that percentage too.
    69.9% would have been adequate, IMHO.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,084
    DUP disappointed at result.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,455

    This new pro EU left/right party will be like a Russian space rocket.

    You mean quite successful?
    Blows up on the launch pad.
    You could do with a better comparison then.

    "For the past five years, the rockets have been our only means to resupply the International Space Station. Not bad for a rocket design that was nearly mothballed but has since gone on to make 784 flights, almost all of them successful."
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/11/29/50_years_soyuz/
    If we're playing tit-for-tat

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-space-programme-collapse-soyuz-2-1b-rocket-cosmodrome-launch-failure-latest-news-a8094856.html
    Yes, it's a risky thing launching space rockets as I'm sure Mr Musk would agree, however the Russians don't have a bad reliability record as such things go.
    Their recent record has been fairly lamentable.

    Back in 2016 it stood at 15 rocket failures in six years, and they lost at least one last year. They have massive problems with corruption, poor management (often fed by the former), questionable quality control, and a myriad of other issues. This is despite their actual engineers, who are often quite brilliant.

    http://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/2016/20161201-whats-the-matter-russias-rockets.html
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,293
    tlg86 said:

    FF43 said:

    73.9% :blush:

    Edit - maybe not. Sputnik typo. Maybe they didn't get the memo?

    73% is a good percentage. Emphatic but not ridiculous. I would have chosen that percentage too.
    69.9% would have been adequate, IMHO.
    Too neat. You want a hint of randomness. Like a beautifully arranged posy of flowers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,652
    edited March 18
    FF43 said:

    73.9% :blush:

    Edit - maybe not. Sputnik typo. Maybe they didn't get the memo?

    73% is a good percentage. Emphatic but not ridiculous. I would have chosen that percentage too.
    In 1997, the second greatest landslide in the UK by one party in the age of universal suffrage, Tony Blair's Labour gained 64% of seats on 43% of votes.

    This is more than emphatic. It is ridiculous. Merely because it is slightly less ridiculous than the Iraqi election of 2002 doesn't make it look sensible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,652
    Jonathan said:

    If you had staked a million on Putin you would have won 6p.

    Gutted. Never saw that result .

    I'm shocked. Indeed I'm astounded.

    I had assumed no bookies were offering odds.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,258
    They could have given us at least a bit of a sweat....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,293
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    73.9% :blush:

    Edit - maybe not. Sputnik typo. Maybe they didn't get the memo?

    73% is a good percentage. Emphatic but not ridiculous. I would have chosen that percentage too.
    In 1997, the second greatest landslide in the UK by one party in the age of universal suffrage, Tony Blair's Labour gained 64% of seats on 43% of votes.

    This is more than emphatic. It is ridiculous. Merely because it is slightly less ridiculous than the Iraqi election of 2002 doesn't make it look sensible.
    64% shows a lack of ambition. 73% is good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 45,981
    edited March 18

    Exit poll: Putin over 70%.

    So Putin gets a bigger mandate than any post-war US President and than Macron got over Le Pen but not quite Saddam Hussein or Assad levels to try and give the result a bit of 'legitimacy'.

    Communist party candidate Pavel Grudinin is currently second, so in Russian elections looks like you just choose your favourite authoritarian, liberals and libertarians need not apply
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,091
    The Ukrainian pilot who Russia accused of shooting down flight MH17 has “shot himself”...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,207

    The Ukrainian pilot who Russia accused of shooting down flight MH17 has “shot himself”...

    Today?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,358

    FPT:
    "
    Totally and wildly O/T but for some reason, while we were in Thailand, my wife and I recorded the C4 series 'The Biggest Little Railway in the World', a description of how a group of (I thought) quintessentially English eccentrics who set out to set a new world record, to build the longest model railway in history stretching 71 miles across Scotland from Fort William to Inverness.

    It is utterly and completely bonkers, and as a result hilarious. I say English because the only accent-identifiable Scot I've seen so far was someone who piped the engine into one of the stations.

    Any PB'er who can find it, I urge them to watch it.
    "

    I wholeheartedly agree. I started watching the series without Mrs J, who is generally uninterested in trains, modelling, or Scotland (sorry, Malc). She walked in, asked "what is this rubbish?" and after a few minutes was avidly watching it.

    A really eccentric program about eccentrics.

    Wonderfully bonkers programme but great entertainment
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,612
    I suppose we can discount the possibility that 74% of voters actually want Putin as President?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,446
    Mr. Essexit, Mr. Herdson tipped 70-80% at 5.25.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,880

    I suppose we can discount the possibility that 74% of voters actually want Putin as President?

    Not that many. Remember the allegation last time was that Putin "should have got" 54% not 64%, i.e. would still have won handsomely.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,258
    Nigelb said:

    The details of the Cambridge Analytical story are pretty extraordinary:
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/17/data-war-whistleblower-christopher-wylie-faceook-nix-bannon-trump
    And an illustration of why the survival of publications like the Guardian - whatever one might think of its editorial politics - is essential to a functioning democracy.

    Note the Cambridge faculty member who changed his name to "Dr Spectre"....

    Who said the fenland hellhole wasn't a nest of subversives... ?

    It is a fascinating article. The only bone of contention I would have is they big thing about "stolen" Facebook data, when what they did is not uncommon. Loads of apps / websites now have a sign up with Facebook or Google and if you do normally it has a thing saying that you are agreeing that Facebook can share x, y and z. Also it is possible to automatically data scrap websites.

    Now obviously they said to Facebook they would only use this for academic use and allegedly they have not been truthful.

    There is a wider issue with these systems allowing one site to share your data with another as part of the sign up process or because you use an app.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,091
    edited March 18
    AndyJS said:

    The Ukrainian pilot who Russia accused of shooting down flight MH17 has “shot himself”...

    Today?
    Yes.

    https://meduza.io/news/2018/03/18/na-ukraine-zastrelilsya-byvshiy-pilot-vladislav-voloshin-v-rossii-ego-obvinyali-v-atake-na-malayziyskiy-boing
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,652

    The Ukrainian pilot who Russia accused of shooting down flight MH17 has “shot himself”...

    The way Admiral Villeneuve stabbed himself to death after the debacle at Trafalgar, mysteriously inflicting three separate and equally fatal wounds on himself?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,322

    AndyJS said:

    The Ukrainian pilot who Russia accused of shooting down flight MH17 has “shot himself”...

    Today?
    Yes.

    https://meduza.io/news/2018/03/18/na-ukraine-zastrelilsya-byvshiy-pilot-vladislav-voloshin-v-rossii-ego-obvinyali-v-atake-na-malayziyskiy-boing
    how very 'convenient'
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,258
    We aren't suggesting that the russian elections could be a bit of a fix are we?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,293

    I suppose we can discount the possibility that 74% of voters actually want Putin as President?

    I'm guessing Putin would win a competitive election, but he's not taking any chances. Mainly by preventing anyone who posed a threat from standing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    If you had staked a million on Putin you would have won 6p.

    Gutted. Never saw that result .

    I'm shocked. Indeed I'm astounded.

    I had assumed no bookies were offering odds.
    I should be collecting £2.50 from £50 at 1/20 from about three months ago. Betfair.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,071

    I suppose we can discount the possibility that 74% of voters actually want Putin as President?

    47%. A solid mandate
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989

    Nigelb said:

    The details of the Cambridge Analytical story are pretty extraordinary:
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/17/data-war-whistleblower-christopher-wylie-faceook-nix-bannon-trump
    And an illustration of why the survival of publications like the Guardian - whatever one might think of its editorial politics - is essential to a functioning democracy.

    Note the Cambridge faculty member who changed his name to "Dr Spectre"....

    Who said the fenland hellhole wasn't a nest of subversives... ?

    It is a fascinating article. The only bone of contention I would have is they big thing about "stolen" Facebook data, when what they did is not uncommon. Loads of apps / websites now have a sign up with Facebook or Google and if you do normally it has a thing saying that you are agreeing that Facebook can share x, y and z. Also it is possible to automatically data scrap websites.

    Now obviously they said to Facebook they would only use this for academic use and allegedly they have not been truthful.

    There is a wider issue with these systems allowing one site to share your data with another as part of the sign up process or because you use an app.
    Facebook are getting mullered over this, mostly because it’s exposed exactly what they do and how they work. The user is the product. Specifically, the users’ personal data is the product.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,529

    I suppose we can discount the possibility that 74% of voters actually want Putin as President?

    Probably 45-50% do. He'd win a fair election, but that's not enough for him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,258
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The details of the Cambridge Analytical story are pretty extraordinary:
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/17/data-war-whistleblower-christopher-wylie-faceook-nix-bannon-trump
    And an illustration of why the survival of publications like the Guardian - whatever one might think of its editorial politics - is essential to a functioning democracy.

    Note the Cambridge faculty member who changed his name to "Dr Spectre"....

    Who said the fenland hellhole wasn't a nest of subversives... ?

    It is a fascinating article. The only bone of contention I would have is they big thing about "stolen" Facebook data, when what they did is not uncommon. Loads of apps / websites now have a sign up with Facebook or Google and if you do normally it has a thing saying that you are agreeing that Facebook can share x, y and z. Also it is possible to automatically data scrap websites.

    Now obviously they said to Facebook they would only use this for academic use and allegedly they have not been truthful.

    There is a wider issue with these systems allowing one site to share your data with another as part of the sign up process or because you use an app.
    Facebook are getting mullered over this, mostly because it’s exposed exactly what they do and how they work. The user is the product. Specifically, the users’ personal data is the product.
    If you aren't paying for the product, you are the product.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,529
    Sean_F said:

    Exit poll: Putin over 70%.

    A hard-fought contest.
    Like in The Dictator, where Sacha Baron Cohen progressively shoots all the other runners racing against him in the 100m.
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