Off topic, again, I detect a growing sense in the Conservative Party that defence spending must rise. There may also be a party political play there, as it's a clear red-line with Corbyn.
I'd say it was odds-on that Hammond now announces something about this in the Autumn budget, or next year. I'd expect measures on counter-espionage, cyber-security and GCHQ, and possibly even the announcement of a new extraordinary post-Brexit SDSR.
The MoD can soak up extra resources quickly, and the money would have to be spent very carefully, but I'd be looking for a ramp-up to c.2.5% of GDP on Defence by 2025.
I think the Army probably is short of 8-9k soldiers, the Navy about 3-4k sailors with operational funding needed on top. The RAF could use an extra squadron or two, with enhanced logistical and maritime capability. The Navy may also announce an extra couple of surface escorts, either Type 26 or Type 31s.
Time to raid the magic money tree? What goes?
I think as I’ve outlined there it would be affordable over a phased period to 2025.
I hope you’d at least credit me with not being naive about public finances. I appreciate you might chose to make alternative spending decisions with the money.
Important to set out the choice. If we are spending more on defence to counter a Russian threat, something has to give. Higher taxes, lower domestic spending.
Yes. I’d trim pensions and education budgets for that, and keep taxes more or less the same. But, I appreciate that’s a minority view.
Has there been a discernable difference this year between how much Tory and Labour councils have increased council tax?
I haven't seen a full analysis, but I doubt if there is much difference. Most councils seem to be increasing council tax by the maximum 5% (including the Adult Social Care slug), which is unsurprising given how much pressure they are under.
Essex is also increasing council tax to pay for more police
Is this the same council that removed street lighting in Epping Forest and environs to save on council tax? Does more darkness lead to more crime?
No as a report has shown switching off street lights in the area has had no increase in crime, the main increase has come in the day hence the funds for extra police, while saving the council millions
People nicking torches from local retailers no doubt.
I think the Army probably is short of 8-9k soldiers, the Navy about 3-4k sailors with operational funding needed on top. The RAF could use an extra squadron or two, with enhanced logistical and maritime capability. The Navy may also announce an extra couple of surface escorts, either Type 26 or Type 31s.
Extra squadron or two of what? There's nobody to operate them and no room at Marham, Coningsby or Waddington.
You can gauge the ambit of the RAF's goals by the privatised Military Flying Training Scheme. When I did my BFT int the late 80s they had 140 Tucanos to support the training pipeline. Now under the auspices of MFTS they have 10 Havards to fill the same role! From that you can work out how many FJ pilots they intend to wing for the FAA and RAF combined and it's not a very big number - probably not even enough to do 1:1 replacements for retirees, fatalities and quitters. Scaling this up is going to be eye wateringly expensive thanks to the strictures of the MFTS agreement.
Amusing Tucano anecdote: I was on one of the first Tucano courses and on a cold Yorkshire morning the staish came out, inspected his flight line and issued a broad spectrum bollocking because all of "his" aircraft weren't parked in a straight line. So we arsed about moving them to get all of the vertical stabs exactly aligned then we noticed that none of the prop spinners lined up. None of the a/c, which had been built with no great precision mainly by ex-shipyard workers in Belfast, were exactly the same size.
Great anecdote, thanks.
Wasn't that one of the problems with the Nimrod MRA4 - they were not identical, making modifications difficult?
Has there been a discernable difference this year between how much Tory and Labour councils have increased council tax?
I haven't seen a full analysis, but I doubt if there is much difference. Most councils seem to be increasing council tax by the maximum 5% (including the Adult Social Care slug), which is unsurprising given how much pressure they are under.
Essex is also increasing council tax to pay for more police
Is this the same council that removed street lighting in Epping Forest and environs to save on council tax? Does more darkness lead to more crime?
Streetlights being turned off between midnight and 5 AM should be a saving every council makes.
Has there been a discernable difference this year between how much Tory and Labour councils have increased council tax?
I haven't seen a full analysis, but I doubt if there is much difference. Most councils seem to be increasing council tax by the maximum 5% (including the Adult Social Care slug), which is unsurprising given how much pressure they are under.
Essex is also increasing council tax to pay for more police
Is this the same council that removed street lighting in Epping Forest and environs to save on council tax? Does more darkness lead to more crime?
Streetlights being turned off between midnight and 5 AM should be a saving every council makes.
Not advisable here in London – would be pitch black yet still plenty of people trying to walk about and get home.
It's not wholly inconsistent. The Third Reich also took a hard line on Russia.
Eventually!
It was always part of the plan. Indeed, it was always the key to the plan. Those who say that Hitler made a mistake in invading the Soviet Union miss the point that the attack was absolutely intrinsic to the nature of Nazism.
Quite. but the late Adolf took a while in getting round to it. Though I suspect that if Britain and France hadn’t intervened to ‘help’ Poland the Germas might well have crashed on further East. Is there a counter-factual anywhere where that happened?
I recall that there's a Russian historian, Suvorov, whose thesis is that Barbarossa was a preemptive strike by Hitler to prevent Stalin attacking Germany after being weakened by war with the Western allies.
On checking Wiki, I see Suvorov was formerly GRU and defected to the UK in 1978. Watch how you go, comrade.
My understanding is that Stalin certainly expected war with Germany, but not till about 1943-44.
Is it in The Gulag Archipelego that there's an imagined look into Stalin's mind just after Barbarossa, and the great sense of betrayal he felt by the one man with whom he thought he had a mutual understanding? If the Soviet Union's defensive capabilities at that point were anything to go by, they seemed hardly prepared for an offensive.
True but many wealthy West Londoners are also afraid of the hard Left taxing them to the hilt
The Tories will struggle to play the low tax card in these local elections, given that most councils are putting up council tax by 5% this year, and most councils right now are Tory controlled.
*Genuine question to someone not as biased as HYUFD*
Has there been a discernable difference this year between how much Tory and Labour councils have increased council tax?
After many years of freezes and low increases I find it hard to believe that this won't cause at least some swing against the Tories at the elections.
Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea and Wandsworth though have notoriously low levels of council tax, substantial surpluses and less need to raise council tax to fund social care and the police etc. If they went Labour council tax would almost certainly go up
I am not sure if that washes much any more. Housing is the key issue and growing for many - not much difference saving £20 on council tax a year makes to your budget (the maximum 3% rise those councils would make under the referendum rules) when you are paying £1500 a month in rent.
The brexiteers and neobrexiteers aren't going to like this package much.
We remain in the Single Market for all intents and purposes until Christmas 2020. NI could remain indefinitely.
I am delighted about today's agreement but according to Barnier NI will receive intensive consideration with the intention of agreeing a mutually acceptable solution
Mr. Eagles, no need for the EU to even attempt to resolve the Irish border then. And that would extend EU reach into UK territory. Surely there's going to be a rebellion over that?
Has there been a discernable difference this year between how much Tory and Labour councils have increased council tax?
I haven't seen a full analysis, but I doubt if there is much difference. Most councils seem to be increasing council tax by the maximum 5% (including the Adult Social Care slug), which is unsurprising given how much pressure they are under.
Essex is also increasing council tax to pay for more police
Is this the same council that removed street lighting in Epping Forest and environs to save on council tax? Does more darkness lead to more crime?
Streetlights being turned off between midnight and 5 AM should be a saving every council makes.
Not advisable here in London – would be pitch black yet still plenty of people trying to walk about and get home.
Bortle 1 skies for the Greenwich observatory, I'll believe it when I see it
It does if you then go on to agree that Brexit will liberate the continent just like our boys did in 45.
Which I didn't say.
Brexit may well provide the impetus for the EU to reform itself so, in future, it responds to the attitudes of its citizens within its member states rather than imposing treaties on them under a new name when they reject the original proposals through referenda.
The best thing about the upcoming reversal of Brexit is that it will put an end to smug British sneering at other countries for having the maturity to think again about these issues, as if they are lesser democracies.
Yep. The only legitimate form of democracy is the one that gives the right answer to the European vision and, if it doesn't, is asked to think again until it does.
Another one of those Brexit myths.
I’m afraid it’s a fact.
Nope. It’s a myth. Up there with “EU is anti-trade”; “EU hurts third world farmers”; “EU has nothing to do with European security”; “EU has no bearing on the Belfast Agreement”; “EU single market and customs union has no effect on our economy”; ; “Italian prosecco growers will save us”; bent bananas, and using Norway as bait to persuade voters to support Brexit, then switching to the Albanian model.
Anyway, your answer on a different EU is actually not so different from mine. It’s just that I realise the status quo is not a tyranny - far from it, and that any change can only happen if we have a seat at the table.
You can still back Britain leaving the EU before the 29/03/2019 - 23:59:59 at odds against on Betfair. Quite what is supporting this price now, I have no idea.
Rules risk.
"Unless otherwise provided in this Agreement, Union law shall be applicable to and in the United Kingdom during the transition period."
BF rules say "when the Treaties cease to apply to the UK".
Theresa's played a blinder. Rees-Mogg's mealy-mouthed piece today means that he's been crushed like a bug - Theresa won't have any more problems from him. Farage might yelp but he can buzz off to Russia and friend Vlad for all we care!
Mr. Eagles, no need for the EU to even attempt to resolve the Irish border then. And that would extend EU reach into UK territory. Surely there's going to be a rebellion over that?
Yup.
Hard Brexiteers and the DUP are going to try and derail this deal, and maybe topple Mrs May.
You can be damn sure the SNP will be asking for the same for Scotland.
Theresa's played a blinder. Rees-Mogg's mealy-mouthed piece today means that he's been crushed like a bug - Theresa won't have any more problems from him. Farage might yelp but he can buzz off to Russia and friend Vlad for all we care!
Theresa's played a blinder. Rees-Mogg's mealy-mouthed piece today means that he's been crushed like a bug - Theresa won't have any more problems from him. Farage might yelp but he can buzz off to Russia and friend Vlad for all we care!
Mr. Eagles, no need for the EU to even attempt to resolve the Irish border then. And that would extend EU reach into UK territory. Surely there's going to be a rebellion over that?
Yup.
Hard Brexiteers and the DUP are going to try and derail this deal, and maybe topple Mrs May.
You can be damn sure the SNP will be asking for the same for Scotland.
Well, there's two vastly different interpretations.
For me I've never been hugely concerned about the transition period - we can put up with a lot of imposition in that period, even extended, so long as the end state is a good one - but I'm generally inclined to believe the Harder Brexiters will see things as unacceptable and revolt, since they have far more red lines to be crossed.
You can still back Britain leaving the EU before the 29/03/2019 - 23:59:59 at odds against on Betfair. Quite what is supporting this price now, I have no idea.
Rules risk.
"Unless otherwise provided in this Agreement, Union law shall be applicable to and in the United Kingdom during the transition period."
BF rules say "when the Treaties cease to apply to the UK".
Betfair rules say: "Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the two year negotiating period (29/03/2019) as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur."
Theresa's played a blinder. Rees-Mogg's mealy-mouthed piece today means that he's been crushed like a bug - Theresa won't have any more problems from him. Farage might yelp but he can buzz off to Russia and friend Vlad for all we care!
True but many wealthy West Londoners are also afraid of the hard Left taxing them to the hilt
The Tories will struggle to play the low tax card in these local elections, given that most councils are putting up council tax by 5% this year, and most councils right now are Tory controlled.
*Genuine question to someone not as biased as HYUFD*
Has there been a discernable difference this year between how much Tory and Labour councils have increased council tax?
After many years of freezes and low increases I find it hard to believe that this won't cause at least some swing against the Tories at the elections.
Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea and Wandsworth though have notoriously low levels of council tax, substantial surpluses and less need to raise council tax to fund social care and the police etc. If they went Labour council tax would almost certainly go up
I am not sure if that washes much any more. Housing is the key issue and growing for many - not much difference saving £20 on council tax a year makes to your budget (the maximum 3% rise those councils would make under the referendum rules) when you are paying £1500 a month in rent.
Considering Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster are the 2 wealthiest boroughs in the UK and basically divided between the super rich and those with a hefty trust fund and inheritance and the poor and those in social housing and on welfare there are very few middle class, middle income voters there. The boroughs are divided between the rich who tend to vote Tory and for whom a big council tax rise is a big issue and the poor who tend to vote Labour and for whom it is not
You can still back Britain leaving the EU before the 29/03/2019 - 23:59:59 at odds against on Betfair. Quite what is supporting this price now, I have no idea.
Rules risk.
"Unless otherwise provided in this Agreement, Union law shall be applicable to and in the United Kingdom during the transition period."
BF rules say "when the Treaties cease to apply to the UK".
I raised this at the time that the bet was first canvassed on here. It seemed inevitable that this would be the case for the transition period and less than crystal what that meant for the bet. I think this still falls within the leave side of the bet but it is not certain.
Anyone think the rules might need an extensive overhaul, if everybody is confused as to what is allowed?
I've said for ages we should abolish the local spend and there should be a unified national spend limit and it is up to the parties where they spend it.
My proposal will be a pain in the arse if you live in a marginal as you'll get bombarded but it'll avoid all these problems.
Hilariously, IIRC the Independent deemed them so important as to put them on their front page (or virtual front page or whatever) alongside the others. The Liberal Party got more votes.
Anyone think the rules might need an extensive overhaul, if everybody is confused as to what is allowed?
No. It doesn't seem too much to ask those who aspire to be legislators to work out what regulatory requirements they are obliged to comply with and stick to them. If in doubt, they should err on the side of caution.
Just like the rest of us have to in everyday life.
The brexiteers and neobrexiteers aren't going to like this package much.
We remain in the Single Market for all intents and purposes until Christmas 2020. NI could remain indefinitely.
I've not seen 'neobrexiteers' before - who are the neobrexiteers?
They're the ones who switched from Remain to Leave when Theresa took over, sniffing where the new power resided.
I see. And is there a distinction between neo-Brexiter and neo-Brexiteer at all? (My personal useage has been Brexiteer is a more gung ho type than a mere Brexiter, the inverse of Remainer and Remoaner).
Wasn't that one of the problems with the Nimrod MRA4 - they were not identical, making modifications difficult?
That was fucked in a different way. All of the donor MR.2s were built on concrete jigs but six of them were built on the jig that wasn't square. The wing kit didn't fit the first donor (XV234) but the rest went on using the age old 'fettle to fit' techniques of the British aircraft industry.
It was all the fault of the rainbow trousered train fancier Portillo.
I think the Army probably is short of 8-9k soldiers, the Navy about 3-4k sailors with operational funding needed on top. The RAF could use an extra squadron or two, with enhanced logistical and maritime capability. The Navy may also announce an extra couple of surface escorts, either Type 26 or Type 31s.
Extra squadron or two of what? There's nobody to operate them and no room at Marham, Coningsby or Waddington.
You can gauge the ambit of the RAF's goals by the privatised Military Flying Training Scheme. When I did my BFT int the late 80s they had 140 Tucanos to support the training pipeline. Now under the auspices of MFTS they have 10 Havards to fill the same role! From that you can work out how many FJ pilots they intend to wing for the FAA and RAF combined and it's not a very big number - probably not even enough to do 1:1 replacements for retirees, fatalities and quitters. Scaling this up is going to be eye wateringly expensive thanks to the strictures of the MFTS agreement.
Amusing Tucano anecdote: I was on one of the first Tucano courses and on a cold Yorkshire morning the staish came out, inspected his flight line and issued a broad spectrum bollocking because all of "his" aircraft weren't parked in a straight line. So we arsed about moving them to get all of the vertical stabs exactly aligned then we noticed that none of the prop spinners lined up. None of the a/c, which had been built with no great precision mainly by ex-shipyard workers in Belfast, were exactly the same size.
Anyone think the rules might need an extensive overhaul, if everybody is confused as to what is allowed?
The cynic in me thinks perhaps the parties don't have a huge incentive to unconfuse it - it puts me in mind of how professional cyclists (and probably other sports, but definitely cycling) love their grey areas where amazingly everyone has a condition which allows a certain level of a treatment which also marginally improves performance etc, a fuzziness to the line so they can step over, but not so blatantly as to become a crime in most instances.
That same cynic finds it just a little bit implausible that so many supposedly bright individuals seem to struggle, over and over again, with the rules.
But to be fair without being aware of just how arduous and complex the rules may be for this stuff, I must tell that internal cynic I should give the benefit of the doubt. For now.
Mr. Eagles, no need for the EU to even attempt to resolve the Irish border then. And that would extend EU reach into UK territory. Surely there's going to be a rebellion over that?
Wasn't that one of the problems with the Nimrod MRA4 - they were not identical, making modifications difficult?
That was fucked in a different way. All of the donor MR.2s were built on concrete jigs but six of them were built on the jig that wasn't square. The wing kit didn't fit the first donor (XV234) but the rest went on using the age old 'fettle to fit' techniques of the British aircraft industry.
It was all the fault of the rainbow trousered train fancier Portillo.
What do you make of the Swedish defence procurement agency ?
Anyone think the rules might need an extensive overhaul, if everybody is confused as to what is allowed?
I've said for ages we should abolish the local spend and there should be a unified national spend limit and it is up to the parties where they spend it.
My proposal will be a pain in the arse if you live in a marginal as you'll get bombarded but it'll avoid all these problems.
Mr. Eagles, no need for the EU to even attempt to resolve the Irish border then. And that would extend EU reach into UK territory. Surely there's going to be a rebellion over that?
Rebellion = Corbyn as PM. Take your pick.
If they think Corbyn as PM would, intentionally or not, lead to what they perceive to be a better Brexit, then on a long term consequences judgement then they should rebel. Corbyn would probably be terrible, but is also unlikely to have a large majority, so would be constrained.
Anyone think the rules might need an extensive overhaul, if everybody is confused as to what is allowed?
I've said for ages we should abolish the local spend and there should be a unified national spend limit and it is up to the parties where they spend it.
My proposal will be a pain in the arse if you live in a marginal as you'll get bombarded but it'll avoid all these problems.
But if you don't, you'll be left in peace.
During an election I want to be bothered a little. I want to feel that even in a safe seat they do a bare minimum of effort.
The brexiteers and neobrexiteers aren't going to like this package much.
We remain in the Single Market for all intents and purposes until Christmas 2020. NI could remain indefinitely.
I've not seen 'neobrexiteers' before - who are the neobrexiteers?
They're the ones who switched from Remain to Leave when Theresa took over, sniffing where the new power resided.
I see. And is there a distinction between neo-Brexiter and neo-Brexiteer at all? (My personal useage has been Brexiteer is a more gung ho type than a mere Brexiter, the inverse of Remainer and Remoaner).
There are degrees of course.
Brexiter - relatively sane, if thoroughly misguided.
Brexiteer - quite cavalier as to the impact of Brexit on the U.K. economy and security.
NeoBrexiteer - a recent convert to the cult; a Jonny-come-loony.
Brextard - lumpen, unthinking Brexitism. See Tory back benches.
Brexitloon - a full-on, foaming nutjob.
Brexistentialism - the fundamental creed of Brexiters, a form of belief immune to objective reality. (As expressed in the famous phrase, “Brexit means Brexit”).
The brexiteers and neobrexiteers aren't going to like this package much.
We remain in the Single Market for all intents and purposes until Christmas 2020. NI could remain indefinitely.
I've not seen 'neobrexiteers' before - who are the neobrexiteers?
Arch loyalist sycophants who switched to being pro-Leave after the result – Carlotta and HYUFD are typical examples on this particular site, but you can find other examples within government e.g. Jezza Hunt.
Anyone think the rules might need an extensive overhaul, if everybody is confused as to what is allowed?
No. It doesn't seem too much to ask those who aspire to be legislators to work out what regulatory requirements they are obliged to comply with and stick to them. If in doubt, they should err on the side of caution.
Not to mention the parties pay people good money to administer these things for their candidates, among other party tasks, they should be able to find enough people who can grasp the details and advise candidates appropriately.
Doesn’t sound terribly acceptable. All we have done is sign up to a full-vassal transition.
Taxation without representation.
How is that acceptable? Having zero say about what goes on in the UK's own waters?
Rob, don't buy the Europhile spin.
Quotas will be kept the same, or at least very similar, for the transition period. The UK will have to wait for "control". Sure, it will sign that away again, or at least some of it, for UK vessels' access to EU waters.
Anyone think the rules might need an extensive overhaul, if everybody is confused as to what is allowed?
I've said for ages we should abolish the local spend and there should be a unified national spend limit and it is up to the parties where they spend it.
My proposal will be a pain in the arse if you live in a marginal as you'll get bombarded but it'll avoid all these problems.
But if you don't, you'll be left in peace.
I lived in the constituency that was the most phone polled constituency of the 2015 general election, it's a proposal I know that will upset a small minority but be supported by the vast majority.
The brexiteers and neobrexiteers aren't going to like this package much.
We remain in the Single Market for all intents and purposes until Christmas 2020. NI could remain indefinitely.
I've not seen 'neobrexiteers' before - who are the neobrexiteers?
Arch loyalist sycophants who switched to being pro-Leave after the result – Carlotta and HYUFD are typical examples on this particular site, but you can find other examples within government e.g. Jezza Hunt.
The brexiteers and neobrexiteers aren't going to like this package much.
We remain in the Single Market for all intents and purposes until Christmas 2020. NI could remain indefinitely.
I've not seen 'neobrexiteers' before - who are the neobrexiteers?
They're the ones who switched from Remain to Leave when Theresa took over, sniffing where the new power resided.
I see. And is there a distinction between neo-Brexiter and neo-Brexiteer at all? (My personal useage has been Brexiteer is a more gung ho type than a mere Brexiter, the inverse of Remainer and Remoaner).
There are degrees of course.
Brexiter - relatively sane, if thoroughly misguided.
Brexiteer - quite cavalier as to the impact of Brexit on the U.K. economy and security.
NeoBrexiteer - a recent convert to the cult; a Jonny-come-loony.
Brextard - lumpen, unthinking Brexitism. See Tory back benches.
Brexitloon - a full-on, foaming nutjob.
Brexistentialism - the fundamental creed of Brexiters, a form of belief immune to objective reality. (As expressed in the famous phrase, “Brexit means Brexit”).
Tyrannosaurus Brex - what Nigel Farage calls himself in bed.
It occurs to me, rightly or wrongly, that the remainers are trying to wind up the Brexiteers as they see their hopes of stopping Brexit now disappearing together with their scare talks of a hard Brexit.
I am sure some will be upset but to me TM has taken the pragmatic course which should satisfy most who just want to get it done
Wasn't that one of the problems with the Nimrod MRA4 - they were not identical, making modifications difficult?
That was fucked in a different way. All of the donor MR.2s were built on concrete jigs but six of them were built on the jig that wasn't square. The wing kit didn't fit the first donor (XV234) but the rest went on using the age old 'fettle to fit' techniques of the British aircraft industry.
It was all the fault of the rainbow trousered train fancier Portillo.
What do you make of the Swedish defence procurement agency ?
I don't know anything about it. The current Swedish PM was the bag man on the South African Gripen deal though.
For 21 months we're going to become a vassal state.
That's going to be a hard sell to the ERG lot.
The name always puzzles me, what research have they actually done into europe ?
I thought the "R" was for Reform, and it seems I'm not the only one to have made that mistake
There was previously a different ERG going back to the early 80s where the R did mean reform. The current ERG was created in the 90s out of the Maastricht rebellion and was mainly a vehicle for Daniel Hannan's propaganda.
Doesn’t sound terribly acceptable. All we have done is sign up to a full-vassal transition.
Taxation without representation.
How is that acceptable? Having zero say about what goes on in the UK's own waters?
Rob, don't buy the Europhile spin.
Quotas will be kept the same, or at least very similar, for the transition period. The UK will have to wait for "control". Sure, it will sign that away again, or at least some of it, for UK vessels' access to EU waters.
I suppose the UK's concessions aren't all that bad if that is the case, and are temporary in nature. They even managed to wrangle Gibraltar into the deal!
For 21 months we're going to become a vassal state.
That's going to be a hard sell to the ERG lot.
I don't know - I think they might buy it.
The pitch will be: 21 months of vassal state and then freedom. Or continued vassal state in the EU.
That would have to be how the government sells it to them (whether this 'vassal' state talk is fair I have yet to determine, but we know from the initial reactions that will be a perception), although that depends if they even accept extended transition as a price worth paying. There are people who want a crash out of course, so its how many are in that category, as nothing will satisfy those people short of that.
Anyone think the rules might need an extensive overhaul, if everybody is confused as to what is allowed?
I've said for ages we should abolish the local spend and there should be a unified national spend limit and it is up to the parties where they spend it.
My proposal will be a pain in the arse if you live in a marginal as you'll get bombarded but it'll avoid all these problems.
But if you don't, you'll be left in peace.
I lived in the constituency that was the most phone polled constituency of the 2015 general election, it's a proposal I know that will upset a small minority but be supported by the vast majority.
I dream of being in a competitive seat. In 2015 someone even apparently knocked on the door to canvass (from UKIP)...but I had nipped out to the shop to buy some sausages and missed them. I was devastated.
For 21 months we're going to become a vassal state.
That's going to be a hard sell to the ERG lot.
The name always puzzles me, what research have they actually done into europe ?
I thought the "R" was for Reform, and it seems I'm not the only one to have made that mistake
There was previously a different ERG going back to the early 80s where the R did mean reform. The current ERG was created in the 90s out of the Maastricht rebellion and was mainly a vehicle for Daniel Hannan's propaganda.
Brexiter - relatively sane, if thoroughly misguided.
Brexiteer - quite cavalier as to the impact of Brexit on the U.K. economy and security.
NeoBrexiteer - a recent convert to the cult; a Jonny-come-loony.
Brextard - lumpen, unthinking Brexitism. See Tory back benches.
Brexitloon - a full-on, foaming nutjob.
Brexistentialism - the fundamental creed of Brexiters, a form of belief immune to objective reality. (As expressed in the famous phrase, “Brexit means Brexit”).
It occurs to me, rightly or wrongly, that the remainers are trying to wind up the Brexiteers as they see their hopes of stopping Brexit now disappearing together with their scare talks of a hard Brexit.
I am sure some will be upset but to me TM has taken the pragmatic course which should satisfy most who just want to get it done
Yes, this is another step towards the UK leaving the EU. Only a few weeks ago we were being told that the tranisition talks might fail by the usual suspects, as usual they were wrong.
The brexiteers and neobrexiteers aren't going to like this package much.
We remain in the Single Market for all intents and purposes until Christmas 2020. NI could remain indefinitely.
I've not seen 'neobrexiteers' before - who are the neobrexiteers?
They're the ones who switched from Remain to Leave when Theresa took over, sniffing where the new power resided.
a.k.a., democrats.
Not so – it's not undemocratic to hold to your principles just because they suffered a narrow defeat in a referendum. Would these types suddenly become pro-hanging were the policy approved by 51% of the electorate? Actually, they probably would.
Doesn’t sound terribly acceptable. All we have done is sign up to a full-vassal transition.
Taxation without representation.
How is that acceptable? Having zero say about what goes on in the UK's own waters?
Rob, don't buy the Europhile spin.
Quotas will be kept the same, or at least very similar, for the transition period. The UK will have to wait for "control". Sure, it will sign that away again, or at least some of it, for UK vessels' access to EU waters.
Won't it be more to do with access to EU markets? I believe the UK currently exports 75% of our catch, 2/3 of that to the EU. Not much point in 'control' & increased catches if we can't flog it to anyone.
For 21 months we're going to become a vassal state.
That's going to be a hard sell to the ERG lot.
The name always puzzles me, what research have they actually done into europe ?
I thought the "R" was for Reform, and it seems I'm not the only one to have made that mistake
There was previously a different ERG going back to the early 80s where the R did mean reform. The current ERG was created in the 90s out of the Maastricht rebellion and was mainly a vehicle for Daniel Hannan's propaganda.
I've long said that the name ERG has echoes of the FRU.
As to the matter at hand, apart from it being hugely embarrassing for JRM, I don't think any Brexiter should mind being the EU's bitch for a couple of years because after that, we will be free.
Unless...the transition period is extended and we end up with a GE during it; or something somehow goes wrong with Tezza's master plan and we end up with a GE during it; or JRM and the Scottish fishing industry (pop. 242) kick up a fuss and we end up with a GE during it.
You get my drift. We are in a very weak situation constitutionally (no taxation without representation) as has been noted, and it don't make for a great platform should it have to be defended at a....GE!!
Edit: and did no one apart from me pause even for a moment to consider the fact that the EU plan was discussed (even if it happened to be meeting at the time) at a WAR cabinet??
For 21 months we're going to become a vassal state.
That's going to be a hard sell to the ERG lot.
I don't know - I think they might buy it.
The pitch will be: 21 months of vassal state and then freedom. Or continued vassal state in the EU.
That would have to be how the government sells it to them (whether this 'vassal' state talk is fair I have yet to determine, but we know from the initial reactions that will be a perception), although that depends if they even accept extended transition as a price worth paying. There are people who want a crash out of course, so its how many are in that category, as nothing will satisfy those people short of that.
Arguably the arch remainer/rejoiners should be hoping for a crash out. Best chance of a speedy re-entry I would have thought.
A transition period where things stay the same but no influence isn't going to inspire anyone to a second referendum.
Doesn’t sound terribly acceptable. All we have done is sign up to a full-vassal transition.
Taxation without representation.
How is that acceptable? Having zero say about what goes on in the UK's own waters?
Rob, don't buy the Europhile spin.
Quotas will be kept the same, or at least very similar, for the transition period. The UK will have to wait for "control". Sure, it will sign that away again, or at least some of it, for UK vessels' access to EU waters.
I suppose the UK's concessions aren't all that bad if that is the case, and are temporary in nature. They even managed to wrangle Gibraltar into the deal!
You must have very low expectations. The U.K. has caved on every front. Every single one.
Wasn't that one of the problems with the Nimrod MRA4 - they were not identical, making modifications difficult?
That was fucked in a different way. All of the donor MR.2s were built on concrete jigs but six of them were built on the jig that wasn't square. The wing kit didn't fit the first donor (XV234) but the rest went on using the age old 'fettle to fit' techniques of the British aircraft industry.
It was all the fault of the rainbow trousered train fancier Portillo.
What do you make of the Swedish defence procurement agency ?
I don't know anything about it. The current Swedish PM was the bag man on the South African Gripen deal though.
Doesn’t sound terribly acceptable. All we have done is sign up to a full-vassal transition.
Taxation without representation.
How is that acceptable? Having zero say about what goes on in the UK's own waters?
Rob, don't buy the Europhile spin.
Quotas will be kept the same, or at least very similar, for the transition period. The UK will have to wait for "control". Sure, it will sign that away again, or at least some of it, for UK vessels' access to EU waters.
Won't it be more to do with access to EU markets? I believe the UK currently exports 75% of our catch, 2/3 of that to the EU. Not much point in 'control' & increased catches if we can't flog it to anyone.
Potentially.
Although that might be under the wider negotiation on all physical goods.
For 21 months we're going to become a vassal state.
That's going to be a hard sell to the ERG lot.
The name always puzzles me, what research have they actually done into europe ?
I thought the "R" was for Reform, and it seems I'm not the only one to have made that mistake
There was previously a different ERG going back to the early 80s where the R did mean reform. The current ERG was created in the 90s out of the Maastricht rebellion and was mainly a vehicle for Daniel Hannan's propaganda.
Stupidity. It's been going on a couple of weeks, the idea that the opposition and media will go easy on the government because of this is moronic. Corbyn won't stop hammering the government about the NHS, nor will the media stop reporting about it, nor should they.
I love the caption on the photo though:
Theresa May’s gravest deception is to pretend she has all the answers
Isn't that a deception peddled by all parties and pundits since the dawn of time? Even when they say they don't have all the answers, they still proffer one, which is to vote for them.
Also:
Corbyn’s faithful fear that the potential deaths of MI6 double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia – or any one else in Salisbury who came into contact with the nerve agent – would fuel the cries for a tough response against Moscow.
Why would his faithful fear this? He accepts is was probably Moscow, officially, and if someone were to die a tough response would be the very opposite of overreacting!
For 21 months we're going to become a vassal state.
That's going to be a hard sell to the ERG lot.
I don't know - I think they might buy it.
The pitch will be: 21 months of vassal state and then freedom. Or continued vassal state in the EU.
That would have to be how the government sells it to them (whether this 'vassal' state talk is fair I have yet to determine, but we know from the initial reactions that will be a perception), although that depends if they even accept extended transition as a price worth paying. There are people who want a crash out of course, so its how many are in that category, as nothing will satisfy those people short of that.
Arguably the arch remainer/rejoiners should be hoping for a crash out. Best chance of a speedy re-entry I would have thought.
A transition period where things stay the same but no influence isn't going to inspire anyone to a second referendum.
As a businessperson I simply want the least damaging settlement for the longest period. So an extra two years is a decent solution, at least for now.
You get my drift. We are in a very weak situation constitutionally (no taxation without representation) as has been noted, and it don't make for a great platform should it have to be defended at a....GE!!
This is the real point. Posturing aside nobody gives a fuck about bushy eyebrowed Scottish fishermen but this agreement extends the period of vulnerability before Brexit can be 'done and dusted'. To use a phrase favoured by those toward the bottom of the Gardenwalker Brexit Mentalness Scale.
Doesn’t sound terribly acceptable. All we have done is sign up to a full-vassal transition.
Taxation without representation.
How is that acceptable? Having zero say about what goes on in the UK's own waters?
Rob, don't buy the Europhile spin.
Quotas will be kept the same, or at least very similar, for the transition period. The UK will have to wait for "control". Sure, it will sign that away again, or at least some of it, for UK vessels' access to EU waters.
I suppose the UK's concessions aren't all that bad if that is the case, and are temporary in nature. They even managed to wrangle Gibraltar into the deal!
You must have very low expectations. The U.K. has caved on every front. Every single one.
If you say so. It was said during the last announcement last year too, though there was some good annotated analysis I recall which showed how we had secured 'wins', though the EU ahd secured more, and Dr Palmer is always advising that for all the froth it is a negotiation and there are fudges, even as more ardent EUphiles say things are only ever one way.
Comments
I suspect in reality taxes will tick up a bit.
https://twitter.com/thistlejohn/status/975705487403560960
Wasn't that one of the problems with the Nimrod MRA4 - they were not identical, making modifications difficult?
We remain in the Single Market for all intents and purposes until Christmas 2020. NI could remain indefinitely.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43457694
Here you go https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_agreement_coloured.pdf
Up there with “EU is anti-trade”; “EU hurts third world farmers”; “EU has nothing to do with European security”; “EU has no bearing on the Belfast Agreement”; “EU single market and customs union has no effect on our economy”; ; “Italian prosecco growers will save us”; bent bananas, and using Norway as bait to persuade voters to support Brexit, then switching to the Albanian model.
Anyway, your answer on a different EU is actually not so different from mine. It’s just that I realise the status quo is not a tyranny - far from it, and that any change can only happen if we have a seat at the table.
"Unless otherwise provided in this Agreement, Union law shall be applicable to and in the United Kingdom during the transition period."
BF rules say "when the Treaties cease to apply to the UK".
Hard Brexiteers and the DUP are going to try and derail this deal, and maybe topple Mrs May.
You can be damn sure the SNP will be asking for the same for Scotland.
Credit where it is due.
For me I've never been hugely concerned about the transition period - we can put up with a lot of imposition in that period, even extended, so long as the end state is a good one - but I'm generally inclined to believe the Harder Brexiters will see things as unacceptable and revolt, since they have far more red lines to be crossed.
"Unless another deal is found" - which is what we've been doing all along.
A true hard Brexit would be "another deal". So would SM membership for the whole of the UK.
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/975705889889030146
https://twitter.com/KKeaneBBC/status/975707251091664896
My proposal will be a pain in the arse if you live in a marginal as you'll get bombarded but it'll avoid all these problems.
Just like the rest of us have to in everyday life.
I assume WEP spent more than it declared as having raised?
All we have done is sign up to a full-vassal transition.
Taxation without representation.
It was all the fault of the rainbow trousered train fancier Portillo.
That same cynic finds it just a little bit implausible that so many supposedly bright individuals seem to struggle, over and over again, with the rules.
But to be fair without being aware of just how arduous and complex the rules may be for this stuff, I must tell that internal cynic I should give the benefit of the doubt. For now.
That's going to be a hard sell to the ERG lot.
Might just sell it that way....
The pitch will be:
21 months of vassal state and then freedom.
Or continued vassal state in the EU.
Brexiter - relatively sane, if thoroughly misguided.
Brexiteer - quite cavalier as to the impact of Brexit on the U.K. economy and security.
NeoBrexiteer - a recent convert to the cult; a Jonny-come-loony.
Brextard - lumpen, unthinking Brexitism. See Tory back benches.
Brexitloon - a full-on, foaming nutjob.
Brexistentialism - the fundamental creed of Brexiters, a form of belief immune to objective reality. (As expressed in the famous phrase, “Brexit means Brexit”).
Quotas will be kept the same, or at least very similar, for the transition period. The UK will have to wait for "control". Sure, it will sign that away again, or at least some of it, for UK vessels' access to EU waters.
I am sure some will be upset but to me TM has taken the pragmatic course which should satisfy most who just want to get it done
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/29/daniel-hannan-the-man-who-brought-you-brexit
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/02/theresa-may-has-picked-yet-another-brexit-fight-she-cannot-win-eu-citizens
There aren't two?
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/975636527987527681
He didn't even say "I agree with the Government but..." until well after the horse had bolted.
Corbyn was the one who played politics with it. May played everything with a straight bat.
As to the matter at hand, apart from it being hugely embarrassing for JRM, I don't think any Brexiter should mind being the EU's bitch for a couple of years because after that, we will be free.
Unless...the transition period is extended and we end up with a GE during it; or something somehow goes wrong with Tezza's master plan and we end up with a GE during it; or JRM and the Scottish fishing industry (pop. 242) kick up a fuss and we end up with a GE during it.
You get my drift. We are in a very weak situation constitutionally (no taxation without representation) as has been noted, and it don't make for a great platform should it have to be defended at a....GE!!
Edit: and did no one apart from me pause even for a moment to consider the fact that the EU plan was discussed (even if it happened to be meeting at the time) at a WAR cabinet??
Best chance of a speedy re-entry I would have thought.
A transition period where things stay the same but no influence isn't going to inspire anyone to a second referendum.
The U.K. has caved on every front. Every single one.
http://www.fmv.se/en/Projects/
Although that might be under the wider negotiation on all physical goods.
The original European Reform Group is defunct as far as I'm aware. A letter with a list of its members and aims shows up in the Thatcher archives:
https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/151722
I love the caption on the photo though:
Theresa May’s gravest deception is to pretend she has all the answers
Isn't that a deception peddled by all parties and pundits since the dawn of time? Even when they say they don't have all the answers, they still proffer one, which is to vote for them.
Also:
Corbyn’s faithful fear that the potential deaths of MI6 double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia – or any one else in Salisbury who came into contact with the nerve agent – would fuel the cries for a tough response against Moscow.
Why would his faithful fear this? He accepts is was probably Moscow, officially, and if someone were to die a tough response would be the very opposite of overreacting!
If the 21 months of vassal statehood are needed to obtain the latter Mrs May should be able to sell that to the country.
David Davis says we will be able to ratify new trade deals and can chose not to apply EU decisions if we do not agree with them during transistion