As I mentioned earlier, fishing has a place in the British psyche far beyond its economic importance. Rees-Mogg and these other rotters know exactly what they're doing: today was supposed to be Theresa's big EU triumph and they're making it all about fish and belittling it. What a nasty, disloyal, petulant bunch of spoilsports they really are.
Yes, ridiculous that such floundering around could knock Mrs May off her perch....
Its a good step forward though apart from the fish.
and the concession on EU citizens during transition
Oh and the NI Border
But apart from that
Oh and the single market and customs union albeit while losing its role in any decision-making institutions.
and the fact that people like IDS say “There does seem to be a real concern … It appears that at least through the implementation period nothing will change and I think that will be a concern and the government clearly has to deal with that because a lot of MPs are very uneasy about that right now
What is it about the US and constant whinging and complaining about close results for weeks, or even months? Didn't we manage to declare Fife NE on election night on a majority of 2, and several others fewer than 100 margin. And this result makes absolutely no difference to the political control of the House.
Have we had a by-election that close?
Why would it being a by-election make a difference? Same issue whether at by-election or GE surely?
Some interesting accounts from literal tied votes in the US, they seem to love the minutiae of electoral processes over there
If memory serves Fermanagh and South Tyrone faced a challenge on a majority of 4 votes to SF in 2010, but, as wiki puts it 'However the Court found that there were only three ballot papers which could not be accounted for, and even if they were all votes for Connor, Gildernew would have had a plurality of one. The election was therefore upheld'.
I do feel sorry for anyone who loses so minutely though. Poor poor LDs in Fife.
Isn't it better to lose by so small a margin? It must feel much worse to be beaten out of sight or lose one's deposit.
I've not stood for election but if you're in a no hoper of a seat I'd have thought losing by a large margin does not hurt so much, and if you can even cut the scale of the margin (say from 20,000 to 10,000) you can point to what an achievement you had. Or maybe if you lose a seat you had held by a large margin you can attribute it to a large degree in being caught by the tidal wave of support (or lack thereof) like many LDs in 2015.
But to come agonisingly close to winning and failing? When if you squeak it you could have hopes of a first time incumbency bonus, of winning over the people so much that it is safe for your party for years to come? It feels like that would be rough.
It might be somebodies only shot at a winnable seat, and if others succeeded in others seats where you failed, perhaps overturning tougher odds, you might be blamed.
That's true about only shot at a winnable seat, I hadn't looked at it from that point of view.
ISTR that Mr Blair & Ms Booth settled it between them that whoever first won a seat would pursue a political career and the other would continue in the legal profession. There's an intriguing counter-factual!
Tangentially, a genuine question: are whistleblowing policies for organisations worth the paper they are written on as far as employees (private or government) are concerned? Seems like that you need a policy to promise not to mistreat whistleblowers is a good indication that the will to punish them will exist, and you can have all the policies you want that will to punish will still be there, and find an out.
FPT @Cyclefree my comments were directly in relation to a poll finding that half of Conservative voters thought that Brexit should proceed without further reconsideration even if it threatened jobs and living standards in Britain. They are willing to immiserate Britain and drag everyone down with them.
Thank you. An odd position for a party normally keen on economic competence to adopt, I grant you.
Few people are concerned about economic competence rather they want the government to give themselves a lifestyle they couldn't otherwise afford.
And governments are happy to do so - for their own voters that is.
Before anyone gets too excited about the Angus Reid poll in Canada in the last thread a Nanos poll over much of the same time period had the Liberals on 36% and the Tories on 33%. Most polls still have the Liberals ahead though Trudeau's lead has narrowed
At the moment Trudeau is Obama and Scheer is Romney in my view, the shine has come off the liberal, the conservative party has a dull but competent leader but in the end the charismatic liberal is still likely to win albeit less strongly than last time
Very good. Reminds me of one awhile back on data collection by intelligence agencies, something along the lines of:
We don't do that sort of thing We do it, but it is completely legal Ok, maybe it isn't legal now, but we should make it legal See, I told you it was legal
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/8xk9v3/watch-cambridge-analyticas-ceo-offer-to-entrap-political-opponents-with-sex-workers-video Nix speaks of setting up fake IDs, websites, and identities in target countries to gather information and blackmail material. Former Cambridge Analytica employees have admitted to The Guardian of working on tourist visas during Trump’s election campaign. Cambridge Analytica, Nix says, can subcontract—to Israeli spy firms, for example—and operate under different names for extra layers of obfuscation. Turnbull mentions an unnamed Eastern European country where the company “ghosted in,” and then disappeared after the job was done...
It would be good to see Facebook go down. Like Uber, they seem to have an entrenched corporate culture of scumbaggery.
I'm inclined to dislike them as overly large and with a mission seemingly all about monitoring and controlling as many things as possible in what just seems an insidious fashion to me, but there's no real prospect of the big companies being split up in future, I presume? Too convenient for too many I'd have thought.
Eventually, we will have to deal with the tech giants. They are global monopolies, sucking huge amounts of money away and aggressively avoiding tax.
It’s a matter of time, although the U.K. will be one of the last jurisdictions to get serious - we are laissez faire to the point of self harm.
Tangentially, a genuine question: are whistleblowing policies for organisations worth the paper they are written on as far as employees (private or government) are concerned? Seems like that you need a policy to promise not to mistreat whistleblowers is a good indication that the will to punish them will exist, and you can have all the policies you want that will to punish will still be there, and find an out.
My feeling is that most companies' whistleblower policies are designed to encourage employees to report colleague misdeeds - i.e. effectively to protect the company. I am not sure they are worth much when it's the company itslef that is being called out.
Page 29 of the spreadsheet shows the overall London from 1994 onwards.
Comparing them to the national results shows how London has trended towards Labour. In 1994 London was slightly more Conservative than the country as a whole and since 2002 there has been a big trend to Labour:
Of course London has been the epicentre of falling levels of home ownership - something traditionally associated with Conservative support.
Interesting to see that a Conservative lead in vote share across London in 2002 still left Labour having the most councillors.
Interestingly Robert Hayward today has suggested the Tories could hold Westminster and Wandsworth even if they fall to their lowest ever number of London councillors and lose Barnet and the number of London councils without a single Tory councillor rises from 5 to 8.
As someone who has been to a few counts I have to say there's a certain bonhomie between the candidates/parties/activists even in close contests that doesn't appear to happen in America.
I remember giggling/chatting with Lab/LD/Greens/Kippers about why votes get rejected/accepted, and why a flaccid penis isn't a clear preference for a candidate whereas an erect penis is.
The only incidents I can recall was when the BNP kicked off about now sharing the platform with the Muslim candidates in the locals and a rather persistent Kipper who was quite adamant that 3 votes for him that had been rejected (because they had signed their name/address on the ballot paper)
There are no counts in the British sense here. Each polling station counts its own results and phones them into the local Board of Elections, usually at county level. Each campaign has their own election night gathering, so there’s no place to gather with their oppos on the other side like there is at the count in Blighty.
No-one actually declares the result in the United States either do they, it's left to the media companies. An exception to that was Florida in 2000 where the Secretary of State for Florida ended up annoucing the final result a few weeks after the election.
They do, but only days or weeks later after the official paper returns from the precincts have been received and collated, the absentee ballots have been received[1] and any provisional ballots have been adjudicated. You may recall after the recent Alabama Senate race there was a televised meeting of the Governor, Secretary of State and elections commissioner to certify the result. That is the legal equivalent of a returning officer’s declaration here.
[1] The US has an interesting rule that the postmarked date is usually counted for meeting submission deadlines, and for elections you usually have up to election day to post your absentee ballot. This rule saved my bacon when I submitted my naturalization application just before the fees went up two Christmases ago. It wasn’t received by US Citizenship and Immigration Services until after the deadline because of Christmas mail volumes, but because I’d posted it before the deadline I got it at the lower fees.
Ultimately people may spout off about the transition deal but what really matters to them is the final terms post transition. Everything else is just timing.
On the lack of challenges to U.K. election results - that’s easy isn’t it? Secretly most candidates want to lose...
Having posed the original question, on reflection, it is obvious. In the UK the candidates and their helpers put in lot of time and effort, and endure hassle and grief from the general public. Which they do in the US too. However, there, a lot of their personal fortune has gone in too!
In the footage, asked what "deep digging" could be done, Mr Nix told an undercover reporter: "Oh, we do a lot more than that." He suggested one way to target an individual was to "offer them a deal that's too good to be true and make sure that's video recorded". He also said he could "send some girls around to the candidate's house..." adding that Ukrainian girls "are very beautiful, I find that works very well". Mr Nix continued: "I'm just giving you examples of what can be done and what has been done."
Tangentially, a genuine question: are whistleblowing policies for organisations worth the paper they are written on as far as employees (private or government) are concerned? Seems like that you need a policy to promise not to mistreat whistleblowers is a good indication that the will to punish them will exist, and you can have all the policies you want that will to punish will still be there, and find an out.
In my experience they are designed for use on those below you in the organisation. They work very well in those cases. Blow the whistle on those senior to you though...
For all you luddites bashing tech companies and like Paul Mason calling for nationalising Facebook -this Telegraph series (no paywall) is worth a read. Post Brexit , the Uk is set to be a new haven for tech.
In the footage, asked what "deep digging" could be done, Mr Nix told an undercover reporter: "Oh, we do a lot more than that." He suggested one way to target an individual was to "offer them a deal that's too good to be true and make sure that's video recorded". He also said he could "send some girls around to the candidate's house..." adding that Ukrainian girls "are very beautiful, I find that works very well". Mr Nix continued: "I'm just giving you examples of what can be done and what has been done."
However, Cambridge Analytica said the report had "grossly misrepresented" the conversations caught on camera.
"In playing along with this line of conversation, and partly to spare our 'client' from embarrassment, we entertained a series of ludicrous hypothetical scenarios," the company said in a statement.
Oh yeah, that makes sense. Question to the company - if said 'client' was asking about such ludicrous scenarios, why did you 'play along' with them at all? Bullcrap, pure Bullcrap.
For all you luddites bashing tech companies and like Paul Mason calling for nationalising Facebook -this Telegraph series (no paywall) is worth a read. Post Brexit , the Uk is set to be a new haven for tech.
I'm a big fan of a lot aspects of new tech. Must one be a fan of rapacious, insidious organisations like Google and Facebook in order to not be a luddite? It's their dominance and controlling nature, their arrogance and seeming lack of care for the law that I don't like (though, of course, I am sure the big ones make sure to always, somehow, just be within the law. Barely in some cases).
Before anyone gets too excited about the Angus Reid poll in Canada in the last thread a Nanos poll over much of the same time period had the Liberals on 36% and the Tories on 33%. Most polls still have the Liberals ahead though Trudeau's lead has narrowed
At the moment Trudeau is Obama and Scheer is Romney in my view, the shine has come off the liberal, the conservative party has a dull but competent leader but in the end the charismatic liberal is still likely to win albeit less strongly than last time
Dull but competent is what they need Federally, given Harper and the recent elevation of sub -Trumpians Jason Kenney in Alberta and Doug Ford in Ontario (yes, brother and enabler-in-chief of the late Rob).
For all you luddites bashing tech companies and like Paul Mason calling for nationalising Facebook -this Telegraph series (no paywall) is worth a read. Post Brexit , the Uk is set to be a new haven for tech.
For all you luddites bashing tech companies and like Paul Mason calling for nationalising Facebook -this Telegraph series (no paywall) is worth a read. Post Brexit , the Uk is set to be a new haven for tech.
For all you luddites bashing tech companies and like Paul Mason calling for nationalising Facebook -this Telegraph series (no paywall) is worth a read. Post Brexit , the Uk is set to be a new haven for tech.
I'm a big fan of a lot aspects of new tech. Must one be a fan of rapacious, insidious organisations like Google and Facebook in order to not be a luddite? It's their dominance and controlling nature, their arrogance and seeming lack of care, that I don't like.
It’s a privately funded industry, unsullied by government and employs middle class non unionised workers -of course you don’t like it.
For all you luddites bashing tech companies and like Paul Mason calling for nationalising Facebook -this Telegraph series (no paywall) is worth a read. Post Brexit , the Uk is set to be a new haven for tech.
Its not about tech though is it, its about monopoly and potentially illegal activities.
Cambridge Analytica are in deep shit and they are not going to get out of it.
Without wishing to go all tinfoil hat, the linkages between Russia, Wikileaks, the Trump campaign, Vote Leave, Cambridge Analytica and Facebook are tightening and tightening.
For all you luddites bashing tech companies and like Paul Mason calling for nationalising Facebook -this Telegraph series (no paywall) is worth a read. Post Brexit , the Uk is set to be a new haven for tech.
I'm a big fan of a lot aspects of new tech. Must one be a fan of rapacious, insidious organisations like Google and Facebook in order to not be a luddite? It's their dominance and controlling nature, their arrogance and seeming lack of care, that I don't like.
It’s a privately funded industry, unsullied by government and employs middle class non unionised workers -of course you don’t like it.
?? And why would you think I don't like those things? - you seem to think I have a problem with the industry, when what I don't like are the biggest companies, as I made quite clear. Are you under the impression I have some hatred for non government industires which lack unionised workers? Why would you think that? Have I railed against lack of union representation in predominantly middle class industries which don't require suckling on the public teat?
Edit - come to think of it, your list of reasons why 'of course I don't like it' does not contain a single thing which I complained about, so being charitable I will assume you meant to reply to a completely different post, since the alternative is you didn't read what I said.
I read an interesting article a few years ago arguing that the problem with the big tech companies and the people who work for them is that they come from backgrounds and have an approach to development that all that matters is the art of the possible. What is fundamentally lacking is a sense of ethics and the debate around what should be done and/or controls around it. Compare, for example, with medicine where people have a similar starting approach, but where there is a heavy tradition of ethical questioning, to the extent that this is automatically built into the development process.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/8xk9v3/watch-cambridge-analyticas-ceo-offer-to-entrap-political-opponents-with-sex-workers-video Nix speaks of setting up fake IDs, websites, and identities in target countries to gather information and blackmail material. Former Cambridge Analytica employees have admitted to The Guardian of working on tourist visas during Trump’s election campaign. Cambridge Analytica, Nix says, can subcontract—to Israeli spy firms, for example—and operate under different names for extra layers of obfuscation. Turnbull mentions an unnamed Eastern European country where the company “ghosted in,” and then disappeared after the job was done...
IANAL. But. Did the C4 hidden cam imply intent or conspiracy to bring people across international borders for sexual purposes in return for payment? That would be a serious allegation were anyone to consider or pursue it.
For all you luddites bashing tech companies and like Paul Mason calling for nationalising Facebook -this Telegraph series (no paywall) is worth a read. Post Brexit , the Uk is set to be a new haven for tech.
I'm a big fan of a lot aspects of new tech. Must one be a fan of rapacious, insidious organisations like Google and Facebook in order to not be a luddite? It's their dominance and controlling nature, their arrogance and seeming lack of care, that I don't like.
It’s a privately funded industry, unsullied by government and employs middle class non unionised workers -of course you don’t like it.
"...unsullied by government..." - it's government that being sullied.
For all you luddites bashing tech companies and like Paul Mason calling for nationalising Facebook -this Telegraph series (no paywall) is worth a read. Post Brexit , the Uk is set to be a new haven for tech.
Its not about tech though is it, its about monopoly and potentially illegal activities.
Cambridge Analytica are in deep shit and they are not going to get out of it.
Without wishing to go all tinfoil hat, the linkages between Russia, Wikileaks, the Trump campaign, Vote Leave, Cambridge Analytica and Facebook are tightening and tightening.
It’s like that f***ing scene in the Wire.
This is why investigations are taking so long. The whole web is complex, its large scale and numbers involved substantive.
The next set of indictments are liable to include a number of people who just haven't come up amongst the well known & prominent names until the point they get charged.
I read an interesting article a few years ago arguing that the problem with the big tech companies and the people who work for them is that they come from backgrounds and have an approach to development that all that matters is the art of the possible. What is fundamentally lacking is a sense of ethics and the debate around what should be done and/or controls around it. Compare, for example, with medicine where people have a similar starting approach, but where there is a heavy tradition of ethical questioning, to the extent that this is automatically built into the development process.
My experience with talking to the research guys at the likes of Facebook, Google, etc is often they are blissfully unaware of potential unethical uses of what they are working on. They are driven by solving an interesting complex problem and how that is monetized is not in their wheelhouse.
e.g Google's new Google Photos update can now automatically share your selfies
As soon as I saw that, I thought that sounds like potential for trouble, but there Google prance around the stage telling everybody how clever their ML techniques for id'ing people, places, objects etc.
I know in the early 2000s Microsoft started to hire hackers to join their security team, because they found their software engineers would implement a solutions but have little concept of how that could be hacked or broken or misused.
The current state of play, it feels a little bit like with but with personal data and ML algorithms.
Before anyone gets too excited about the Angus Reid poll in Canada in the last thread a Nanos poll over much of the same time period had the Liberals on 36% and the Tories on 33%. Most polls still have the Liberals ahead though Trudeau's lead has narrowed
At the moment Trudeau is Obama and Scheer is Romney in my view, the shine has come off the liberal, the conservative party has a dull but competent leader but in the end the charismatic liberal is still likely to win albeit less strongly than last time
Dull but competent is what they need Federally, given Harper and the recent elevation of sub -Trumpians Jason Kenney in Alberta and Doug Ford in Ontario (yes, brother and enabler-in-chief of the late Rob).
For all you luddites bashing tech companies and like Paul Mason calling for nationalising Facebook -this Telegraph series (no paywall) is worth a read. Post Brexit , the Uk is set to be a new haven for tech.
I'm a big fan of a lot aspects of new tech. Must one be a fan of rapacious, insidious organisations like Google and Facebook in order to not be a luddite? It's their dominance and controlling nature, their arrogance and seeming lack of care, that I don't like.
It’s a privately funded industry, unsullied by government and employs middle class non unionised workers -of course you don’t like it.
"...unsullied by government..." - it's government that being sullied.
Careful now, apparently not being a fan of Facebook and Google mean you are a luddite, having a seething hatred of the tech industry because it's middle class and not the government? I have to hand it to TGOHF, one the most confusingly misdirected accusations with amazingly little substance behind it that I have seen since the last time Brexit was discussed.
That I am only in favour of the public sector came as a shock, not least considering my support for austerity over the years. I shall probably have to take back that Tory vote in 2017 as well, for good measure, given my apparent support only for unions.
Interesting that Dr Spectre received a Kremlin grant at one point, for research into the use of social media...
If you want to change the world and become President of America you need the best, that’s why they went to Fen Poly.
Same reason why the Russians targeted the Cambridge 5, they went for the best, if they wanted third rate no marks they’d have gone to Cowley Tech.
The best... crooksandliars. I won't deny that I have friends who spent time in the fenland hellhole, and it has produced some decent science... but a bit lacking in the civilisation department.
What is interesting about this Cambridge Analytics is that it seems Facebook basically said it was ok to scrape this wide network of data if somebody used an approved app on the condition that the bloke who wrote the app was a good boy and only use it for academic purposes. Be interesting to see how watertight "academic purposes" clauses are.
Also, the whistleblower said that Facebook send him a request to delete his personal copy of the data and all the proof they required was that he sent a form back to them.
Now I am sure technically it is all legally enforceable, but its a bit late once you have scraped, collected and distributed 200 million profiles.
Again it sort of shows an attitude of oh he is an academic, we come from that sort of environment, and in our experience everybody plays nice there, shares code and data and is generally ethical. Naive would be the word that comes to mind.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/8xk9v3/watch-cambridge-analyticas-ceo-offer-to-entrap-political-opponents-with-sex-workers-video Nix speaks of setting up fake IDs, websites, and identities in target countries to gather information and blackmail material. Former Cambridge Analytica employees have admitted to The Guardian of working on tourist visas during Trump’s election campaign. Cambridge Analytica, Nix says, can subcontract—to Israeli spy firms, for example—and operate under different names for extra layers of obfuscation. Turnbull mentions an unnamed Eastern European country where the company “ghosted in,” and then disappeared after the job was done...
IANAL. But. Did the C4 hidden cam imply intent or conspiracy to bring people across international borders for sexual purposes in return for payment? That would be a serious allegation were anyone to consider or pursue it.
Wrong to speculate at this stage, I think (though you can infer what you will). And cameras record rather than imply.
Before anyone gets too excited about the Angus Reid poll in Canada in the last thread a Nanos poll over much of the same time period had the Liberals on 36% and the Tories on 33%. Most polls still have the Liberals ahead though Trudeau's lead has narrowed
At the moment Trudeau is Obama and Scheer is Romney in my view, the shine has come off the liberal, the conservative party has a dull but competent leader but in the end the charismatic liberal is still likely to win albeit less strongly than last time
It's interesting how Trudeau's lead has suddenly crumbled over just the last couple of months. Before that he regularly had double digit leads.
I read an interesting article a few years ago arguing that the problem with the big tech companies and the people who work for them is that they come from backgrounds and have an approach to development that all that matters is the art of the possible. What is fundamentally lacking is a sense of ethics and the debate around what should be done and/or controls around it. Compare, for example, with medicine where people have a similar starting approach, but where there is a heavy tradition of ethical questioning, to the extent that this is automatically built into the development process.
Yes, good insight. Satirised ages ago by Tom Lehrer:
"The rockets go up, who cares where they come down? That's not my department," says Werner von Braun.
A subtext running through some of the stories is that the techniques have been used before to manipulate other people's elections. I'm not sure any big power is totally clean.
Before anyone gets too excited about the Angus Reid poll in Canada in the last thread a Nanos poll over much of the same time period had the Liberals on 36% and the Tories on 33%. Most polls still have the Liberals ahead though Trudeau's lead has narrowed
At the moment Trudeau is Obama and Scheer is Romney in my view, the shine has come off the liberal, the conservative party has a dull but competent leader but in the end the charismatic liberal is still likely to win albeit less strongly than last time
It's interesting how Trudeau's lead has suddenly crumbled over just the last couple of months. Before that he regularly had double digit leads.
This is all magnificently mental isn't it? TM will solve the fisherpeople thing by giving them 'assistance' or 'support' (ie lots of money) during the transition period.
Page xvi (page 18 f teh PDF) gives Labour 2,626,540 of 6,103,629 which is 43%
On the next page it gives them 37.4%
What am I missing?
Most London wards have 3 councillors so there's no simple way of calculating percentage. You can use the top vote method or the average vote method, or add up all the votes for all the candidates for each party.
OK, let's run with that.
Your spreadsheet (thanks) thinks the Tories got 38,286 in Barnet. The link says 108,774.
Is that because your spreadsheet counts voters and not votes?
It's using highest vote method which I think is the most commonly used way of doing it. Each voter in London usually gets 3 votes for 3 candidates (if they wish to use them all). The 108,774 figure is from adding up all 3 candidates.
Okey dokey, I understand now. Labourites disproportionately live in multimember constituencies and/or use all three votes.
The UKPollingReport changes are therefore broadly correct.
No, all but one or two of the 624 wards in London are three member wards. One of the two member wards is in Orpington which is practically the safest Tory area. The highest vote method doesn't usually discriminate against any particular party.
One explanation may be that in 2014 Labour supporters were usually voting for all 3 Labour candidates, whereas often Tories may have been voting twice for the Tory candidate and once for the UKIP candidate who were usually running just one candidate in most wards.
While not disagreeing with your point can I pedantically point out there are now quite a few two (or I think even one) member wards in London.
Aside from Addington and Fieldway in Croydon, both K&C and Tower Hamlets were redrawn with a variety of ward sizes.
That's right, I forgot about the boundary changes last time which introduced a few more two member wards. There are more boundary changes coming up in May.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/8xk9v3/watch-cambridge-analyticas-ceo-offer-to-entrap-political-opponents-with-sex-workers-video Nix speaks of setting up fake IDs, websites, and identities in target countries to gather information and blackmail material. Former Cambridge Analytica employees have admitted to The Guardian of working on tourist visas during Trump’s election campaign. Cambridge Analytica, Nix says, can subcontract—to Israeli spy firms, for example—and operate under different names for extra layers of obfuscation. Turnbull mentions an unnamed Eastern European country where the company “ghosted in,” and then disappeared after the job was done...
IANAL. But. Did the C4 hidden cam imply intent or conspiracy to bring people across international borders for sexual purposes in return for payment? That would be a serious allegation were anyone to consider or pursue it.
Wrong to speculate at this stage, I think (though you can infer what you will). And cameras record rather than imply.
This is all magnificently mental isn't it? TM will solve the fisherpeople thing by giving them 'assistance' or 'support' (ie lots of money) during the transition period.
Yes but Rees Mogg is the Brexiteer Messiah, May is just managing Brexit
Before anyone gets too excited about the Angus Reid poll in Canada in the last thread a Nanos poll over much of the same time period had the Liberals on 36% and the Tories on 33%. Most polls still have the Liberals ahead though Trudeau's lead has narrowed
At the moment Trudeau is Obama and Scheer is Romney in my view, the shine has come off the liberal, the conservative party has a dull but competent leader but in the end the charismatic liberal is still likely to win albeit less strongly than last time
It's interesting how Trudeau's lead has suddenly crumbled over just the last couple of months. Before that he regularly had double digit leads.
It is a similar pattern to what was seen in the US when after a landslide win when he came to power the charismatic Liberal (for Obama also read Trudeau) began to come unstuck on the economy and the conservatives competent but dull pick, for Romney read Scheer, significantly cut his lead.
In the end though Obama won in 2012 but only by about 3.5% compared to the 7% he won by in 2008, I expect a similar story in Canada next year but we shall see, Trudeau's Liberals led the Tories by about 8% in 2015 when he came to power.
Before anyone gets too excited about the Angus Reid poll in Canada in the last thread a Nanos poll over much of the same time period had the Liberals on 36% and the Tories on 33%. Most polls still have the Liberals ahead though Trudeau's lead has narrowed
At the moment Trudeau is Obama and Scheer is Romney in my view, the shine has come off the liberal, the conservative party has a dull but competent leader but in the end the charismatic liberal is still likely to win albeit less strongly than last time
It's interesting how Trudeau's lead has suddenly crumbled over just the last couple of months. Before that he regularly had double digit leads.
Part of that is down to the farcically long-winded and Byzantine system of the PC in electing a leader. As well as a ridiculously huge number of candidates with mutually-opposed platforms.
As someone who has been to a few counts I have to say there's a certain bonhomie between the candidates/parties/activists even in close contests that doesn't appear to happen in America.
I remember giggling/chatting with Lab/LD/Greens/Kippers about why votes get rejected/accepted, and why a flaccid penis isn't a clear preference for a candidate whereas an erect penis is.
The only incidents I can recall was when the BNP kicked off about now sharing the platform with the Muslim candidates in the locals and a rather persistent Kipper who was quite adamant that 3 votes for him that had been rejected (because they had signed their name/address on the ballot paper)
People do seem generally fairly jolly at counts in my experience (while doing counting). Unless a campaign's been really personally bitter it feels like any further hassle and negativity can probably wait, and everyone should be able to just relax and chat with the only other people who know what they've been through in the preceding weeks and months.
It was awkward at the last count I attended though, as the wrong winner was announced, and gave a very surprised victory speech, and later everyone had to be called back to the stage.
Generally true about counts being reasonably jovial, though Anna Soubry was very grouchy in 2010 despite actually winning. I think she'd expected to win by more - she was much better in 2015.
the fishing issue is likely to to rumble on, but as a lobby group it is not effective, a handful of voters stuck out at the fringes are not going to derail BREXIT, I expect a lot of hot air but like fishermen for generations Politicians will not listen to them....Uk shoppers dont buy fish the way the French, Spanish etc do....therefore nothing much will happen on this matter.
So what is he going to do - vote down his government
Also apart from the Telegraph re the fishermen the rest of the newspapers are hailing it as a break through.
Re fishing I am concerned and fully support the Scots fishermen but not sure how an extra 18 months is a problem - we get back our coastal waters on the 1st January 2021
Isn't it better to lose by so small a margin? It must feel much worse to be beaten out of sight or lose one's deposit.
I think it comes down to personal expectations management. I thought the 2010 result when I narrowly lost was quite satisfying, as we'd expected to be hammered. 2015 was less enjoyable for the opposite reason! In general, though, we're all aware that the candidate only makes a moest difference most of the time, so it's silly to take either victory or defeat too personally.
Isn't it better to lose by so small a margin? It must feel much worse to be beaten out of sight or lose one's deposit.
I think it comes down to personal expectations management. I thought the 2010 result when I narrowly lost was quite satisfying, as we'd expected to be hammered. 2015 was less enjoyable for the opposite reason! In general, though, we're all aware that the candidate only makes a moest difference most of the time, so it's silly to take either victory or defeat too personally.
the fishing issue is likely to to rumble on, but as a lobby group it is not effective, a handful of voters stuck out at the fringes are not going to derail BREXIT, I expect a lot of hot air but like fishermen for generations Politicians will not listen to them....Uk shoppers dont buy fish the way the French, Spanish etc do....therefore nothing much will happen on this matter.
I would not dismiss it too easily as there are 13 Scons mainly from fishing and agriculture consituencies and taking back control of fishing played a large part in their election.
I expect it to smooth over but that is upto TM and Ruth Davidson to reassure the fishermen that they will not be sacrificed in the deal
I read an interesting article a few years ago arguing that the problem with the big tech companies and the people who work for them is that they come from backgrounds and have an approach to development that all that matters is the art of the possible. What is fundamentally lacking is a sense of ethics and the debate around what should be done and/or controls around it. Compare, for example, with medicine where people have a similar starting approach, but where there is a heavy tradition of ethical questioning, to the extent that this is automatically built into the development process.
Ask yourself not just “Can I do this?” But “Should I do this?”
PS Whistleblowing is my specialist subject. Writing a shiny procedure, which is all most companies ever focus on, is nowhere near what’s needed. But it is late, I have a sore throat and have a busy day working tomorrow so need my sleep. Another time.
the fishing issue is likely to to rumble on, but as a lobby group it is not effective, a handful of voters stuck out at the fringes are not going to derail BREXIT, I expect a lot of hot air but like fishermen for generations Politicians will not listen to them....Uk shoppers dont buy fish the way the French, Spanish etc do....therefore nothing much will happen on this matter.
I would not dismiss it too easily as there are 13 Scons mainly from fishing and agriculture consituencies and taking back control of fishing played a large part in their election.
I expect it to smooth over but that is upto TM and Ruth Davidson to reassure the fishermen that they will not be sacrificed in the deal
"It’s not like the fishermen are going to vote Labour.”
the fishing issue is likely to to rumble on, but as a lobby group it is not effective, a handful of voters stuck out at the fringes are not going to derail BREXIT, I expect a lot of hot air but like fishermen for generations Politicians will not listen to them....Uk shoppers dont buy fish the way the French, Spanish etc do....therefore nothing much will happen on this matter.
I would not dismiss it too easily as there are 13 Scons mainly from fishing and agriculture consituencies and taking back control of fishing played a large part in their election.
I expect it to smooth over but that is upto TM and Ruth Davidson to reassure the fishermen that they will not be sacrificed in the deal
"It’s not like the fishermen are going to vote Labour.”
So what is he going to do - vote down his government
Also apart from the Telegraph re the fishermen the rest of the newspapers are hailing it as a break through.
Re fishing I am concerned and fully support the Scots fishermen but not sure how an extra 18 months is a problem - we get back our coastal waters on the 1st January 2021
I think most people will quite rationally judge how they vote in 2022 by how things stand by then and not an interim period that has already expired.
If we sacrifice our territorial waters from 2021 onwards too to achieve a deal then I'd expect much more uproar than over an 18 month transition.
Just one further thought on Cambridge Analytica, because the links involving these guys go out in many directions. If the talk on the video from Channel 4 isn't just hyperbole for promotional effect, who could they possibly have blackmailed?
Therein would lay another story.
More from the Mueller investigation soon, no doubting that at all.
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
On Brexit looks like May & Davis have annoyed all the right people....though if I was a fisherman I’d be keeping my powder dry for 2021....don’t they land a lot of what they catch in the EU?
So what is he going to do - vote down his government
Also apart from the Telegraph re the fishermen the rest of the newspapers are hailing it as a break through.
Re fishing I am concerned and fully support the Scots fishermen but not sure how an extra 18 months is a problem - we get back our coastal waters on the 1st January 2021
I think most people will quite rationally judge how they vote in 2022 by how things stand by then and not an interim period that has already expired.
If we sacrifice our territorial waters from 2021 onwards too to achieve a deal then I'd expect much more uproar than over an 18 month transition.
Most of us have a pretty fair idea of what a fair deal would look and smell like. This is starting to whiff a bit
So what is he going to do - vote down his government
Also apart from the Telegraph re the fishermen the rest of the newspapers are hailing it as a break through.
Re fishing I am concerned and fully support the Scots fishermen but not sure how an extra 18 months is a problem - we get back our coastal waters on the 1st January 2021
I think most people will quite rationally judge how they vote in 2022 by how things stand by then and not an interim period that has already expired.
If we sacrifice our territorial waters from 2021 onwards too to achieve a deal then I'd expect much more uproar than over an 18 month transition.
Most of us have a pretty fair idea of what a fair deal would look and smell like. This is starting to whiff a bit
This is a standstill extension of everything until end of 2020. I fail to see how it whiffs when everything is standing still.
If only fishermen were not getting what they want then absolutely fair enough. But currently nobody who wanted a change is getting what they want prior to 2021. To quote a common phrase there is no cherrypicking here.
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
As far as I can tell Obama used legally acquired data analytics, CA used illegally acquired data analytics.
On Brexit looks like May & Davis have annoyed all the right people....though if I was a fisherman I’d be keeping my powder dry for 2021....don’t they land a lot of what they catch in the EU?
This is what I thought, most of their catch goes to the EU (or EFTA) and therefore the idea they could just withdraw from EU Common Fisheries but still keep the very lucrative easy access to European markets is a classic example of having the cake (or hake) and eating it (and we all can see how that approach panned out for Boris J ).
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
The whole issue revolves around Facebook App Data sharing ToS. An academic created an app, those that downloaded it agree to the T&C (in there was that they would be allow Facebook to hand over their data to the academic (this is very common with all apps these days that use Facebook or Google login), and also their network of friends [public] info*).
Note all of the above could have been scraped a different way, but would have been much more inefficient to do. The way it was done allowed them to capture info on 100,000s of profiles in just a few days.
Now real issue is that the academic agreed with Facebook that the data they would hand over was for academic purposes only. Instead it has been leveraged by a private company.
What is unclear at the moment is how strong are Facebook ToS and what exact agreement everybody signed up for i.e the Facebook users, Facebook and the academic. In the mountains of legalize it might be that all that has gone on is fine, because we all signed up to it when we joined Facebook.
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
The whole issue revolves around Facebook App Data sharing ToS. An academic created an app, those that downloaded it agree to the T&C (in there was that they would be allow Facebook to hand over their data to the academic (this is very common with all apps these days that use Facebook or Google login), and also their network of friends [public] info*).
Note all of the above could have been scraped a different way, but would have been much more inefficient to do. The way it was done allowed them to capture info on 100,000s of profiles in just a few days.
Now real issue is that the academic agreed with Facebook that the data they would hand over was for academic purposes only. Instead it has been leveraged by a private company.
What is unclear at the moment is how strong are Facebook ToS and what exact agreement everybody signed up for i.e the Facebook users, Facebook and the academic. In the mountains of legalize it might be that all that has gone on is fine, because we all signed up to it when we joined Facebook.
Thank you. As you observe, in all the legalese T&C it may be that Facebook are covered - I guess we’ll have to wait to see. CA on the other hand appear to have been damned out of their own mouths...
Part of this feels a bit like refighting Trump & Brexit....”How could we possibly lose? We were right! It must be something else....”
On Brexit looks like May & Davis have annoyed all the right people....though if I was a fisherman I’d be keeping my powder dry for 2021....don’t they land a lot of what they catch in the EU?
This is what I thought, most of their catch goes to the EU (or EFTA) and therefore the idea they could just withdraw from EU Common Fisheries but still keep the very lucrative easy access to European markets is a classic example of having the cake (or hake) and eating it (and we all can see how that approach panned out for Boris J ).
This is just nonsense. Nobody gives away their national resources for the right to sell them into another market. It is the equivalent of saying that the UK should be able to mine coal and potash in Germany and remove it without payment or we will refuse to buy coal and fertiliser from Germany. Access into the EU market is covered by WTO rules, they cannot simply refuse to take our fish just because we refuse to let them steal them first before they sell them back to us. If they want to impose a punitive tariff on fish, we should do so on German cars.
God how the EU have twisted the reality of what is actually normal....
Back on the Brexit withdrawal agreement. Every serious commentator realises a 20 month "transition" won't be nearly enough time to negotiate a new treaty but there is no mechanism in the draft agreement to allow the transition.to be extended. The UK apparently asked for a flexible arrangement but the EU refused (so far). In principle any extension would require a new treaty as the Article 50 process will be spent by the completion of the transition. As a "mixed" treaty this would probably require full.ratification by member state parliaments including the notorious Wollonia. Expect a long shopping list of demands from member states.
Correct. The process being undertaken by the UK Government is utterly inept. It is hard to understand what they are trying to achieve. The only logical explanation is that May has decided to subvert Brexit by engaging in a series of total sellouts, followed by a 'realisation' that we might as well rejoin. At least this scenario would involve her having a clue, even though it will involve total annihilation at the next election.
The sadder but more realistic option is that she is just utterly clueless. There is no way an acceptable deal can be reached from this point and on this process. The only people who can support continued negotiations are either in denial of the reality or actively want the UK to fail.
On Brexit looks like May & Davis have annoyed all the right people....though if I was a fisherman I’d be keeping my powder dry for 2021....don’t they land a lot of what they catch in the EU?
This is what I thought, most of their catch goes to the EU (or EFTA) and therefore the idea they could just withdraw from EU Common Fisheries but still keep the very lucrative easy access to European markets is a classic example of having the cake (or hake) and eating it (and we all can see how that approach panned out for Boris J ).
This is just nonsense. Nobody gives away their national resources for the right to sell them into another market. It is the equivalent of saying that the UK should be able to mine coal and potash in Germany and remove it without payment or we will refuse to buy coal and fertiliser from Germany. Access into the EU market is covered by WTO rules, they cannot simply refuse to take our fish just because we refuse to let them steal them first before they sell them back to us. If they want to impose a punitive tariff on fish, we should do so on German cars.
God how the EU have twisted the reality of what is actually normal....
EU WTO fish tariffs range from 0% for Mackerel to 23% for Sardines:
On Brexit looks like May & Davis have annoyed all the right people....though if I was a fisherman I’d be keeping my powder dry for 2021....don’t they land a lot of what they catch in the EU?
This is what I thought, most of their catch goes to the EU (or EFTA) and therefore the idea they could just withdraw from EU Common Fisheries but still keep the very lucrative easy access to European markets is a classic example of having the cake (or hake) and eating it (and we all can see how that approach panned out for Boris J ).
This is just nonsense. Nobody gives away their national resources for the right to sell them into another market. It is the equivalent of saying that the UK should be able to mine coal and potash in Germany and remove it without payment or we will refuse to buy coal and fertiliser from Germany. Access into the EU market is covered by WTO rules, they cannot simply refuse to take our fish just because we refuse to let them steal them first before they sell them back to us. If they want to impose a punitive tariff on fish, we should do so on German cars.
God how the EU have twisted the reality of what is actually normal....
I think that is what the Scottish fishing industry will be crying out to Michael "Birdseye" Gove when he opens his email in a couple of hours.........his love for the Scottish fishing industry (proclaimed in 2016 from his wealthy Surrey Parliamentary seat) stands for nothing.
Does it mean we will see the Kate Hoey and Farage back on the Thames together?
VW sell about 5-6% of their annual car production to the UK - I dont think they will be too bothered about UK BREXIT. The fishing industry are like Turkeys who voted for Christmas
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
The whole issue revolves around Facebook App Data sharing ToS. An academic created an app, those that downloaded it agree to the T&C (in there was that they would be allow Facebook to hand over their data to the academic (this is very common with all apps these days that use Facebook or Google login), and also their network of friends [public] info*).
Note all of the above could have been scraped a different way, but would have been much more inefficient to do. The way it was done allowed them to capture info on 100,000s of profiles in just a few days.
Now real issue is that the academic agreed with Facebook that the data they would hand over was for academic purposes only. Instead it has been leveraged by a private company.
What is unclear at the moment is how strong are Facebook ToS and what exact agreement everybody signed up for i.e the Facebook users, Facebook and the academic. In the mountains of legalize it might be that all that has gone on is fine, because we all signed up to it when we joined Facebook.
Thank you. As you observe, in all the legalese T&C it may be that Facebook are covered - I guess we’ll have to wait to see. CA on the other hand appear to have been damned out of their own mouths...
Part of this feels a bit like refighting Trump & Brexit....”How could we possibly lose? We were right! It must be something else....”
Never mind the legalese in Facebook's T&C's: the question for that nice Mr Zuckerberg is whether this leads to the mass cancellation of accounts as people suddenly realise how purposely leaky it is.
Have I missed something? I thought we had been guaranteed the 2020 catch would be the same as 2019?
The cynic in me says expectations were raised in a rather deceitful manner about BREXIT to a lot of voters, the fishermen are just finding out today......
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/8xk9v3/watch-cambridge-analyticas-ceo-offer-to-entrap-political-opponents-with-sex-workers-video Nix speaks of setting up fake IDs, websites, and identities in target countries to gather information and blackmail material. Former Cambridge Analytica employees have admitted to The Guardian of working on tourist visas during Trump’s election campaign. Cambridge Analytica, Nix says, can subcontract—to Israeli spy firms, for example—and operate under different names for extra layers of obfuscation. Turnbull mentions an unnamed Eastern European country where the company “ghosted in,” and then disappeared after the job was done...
I knew Bertie (Nix) growing up. He was a prat, a wanker and a shyster. I’d be surprised if he was a crook.
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
Have I missed something? I thought we had been guaranteed the 2020 catch would be the same as 2019?
The cynic in me says expectations were raised in a rather deceitful manner about BREXIT to a lot of voters, the fishermen are just finding out today......
In 2021 we’ll be outside
The issue is the decision is made in Dec 19 for the whole of the 20 season.
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
Trump is a baddie. Obama is a goodie.
That's pathetic, even for you.
It is possible to harness the power of social media in a legal (and even a cheap) way. What CA have been accused of doing for its clients goes way beyond that.
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
Trump is a baddie. Obama is a goodie.
That's pathetic, even for you.
It is possible to harness the power of social media in a legal (and even a cheap) way. What CA have been accused of doing for its clients goes way beyond that.
Media narrative always plays a role.
I have no idea of whether CA breached the law or Facebook’s TOS.
But we may well see a company destroyed regardless of guilt or innocence.
(The more amusing allegations - Ukrainian hookers et al - I am inclined to believe are Bertie trying to play the big man / be in with the “cool kids”. It would fit his personality especially after a few drinks)
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
The whole issue revolves around Facebook App Data sharing ToS. An academic created an app, those that downloaded it agree to the T&C (in there was that they would be allow Facebook to hand over their data to the academic (this is very common with all apps these days that use Facebook or Google login), and also their network of friends [public] info*).
Note all of the above could have been scraped a different way, but would have been much more inefficient to do. The way it was done allowed them to capture info on 100,000s of profiles in just a few days.
Now real issue is that the academic agreed with Facebook that the data they would hand over was for academic purposes only. Instead it has been leveraged by a private company.
What is unclear at the moment is how strong are Facebook ToS and what exact agreement everybody signed up for i.e the Facebook users, Facebook and the academic. In the mountains of legalize it might be that all that has gone on is fine, because we all signed up to it when we joined Facebook.
Thank you. As you observe, in all the legalese T&C it may be that Facebook are covered - I guess we’ll have to wait to see. CA on the other hand appear to have been damned out of their own mouths...
Part of this feels a bit like refighting Trump & Brexit....”How could we possibly lose? We were right! It must be something else....”
Never mind the legalese in Facebook's T&C's: the question for that nice Mr Zuckerberg is whether this leads to the mass cancellation of accounts as people suddenly realise how purposely leaky it is.
I never joined up to Facebook. It always worried me.
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
Trump is a baddie. Obama is a goodie.
Isn’t it more that the Obama campaign explicitly sought people’s consent, while CA harvested data without permission? In other words, they essentially stole it.
On Brexit looks like May & Davis have annoyed all the right people....though if I was a fisherman I’d be keeping my powder dry for 2021....don’t they land a lot of what they catch in the EU?
The Irish border remains the big stumbling block. The backstop is there and the government is running out of time to prevent it kicking in.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/8xk9v3/watch-cambridge-analyticas-ceo-offer-to-entrap-political-opponents-with-sex-workers-video Nix speaks of setting up fake IDs, websites, and identities in target countries to gather information and blackmail material. Former Cambridge Analytica employees have admitted to The Guardian of working on tourist visas during Trump’s election campaign. Cambridge Analytica, Nix says, can subcontract—to Israeli spy firms, for example—and operate under different names for extra layers of obfuscation. Turnbull mentions an unnamed Eastern European country where the company “ghosted in,” and then disappeared after the job was done...
I knew Bertie (Nix) growing up. He was a prat, a wanker and a shyster. I’d be surprised if he was a crook.
It's not as though old Etonians have never troubled the criminal justice system.....
SCL’s involvement in the political world has been primarily in the developing world where it has been used by the military and politicians to study and manipulate public opinion and political will. It uses what have been called “psy ops” to provide insight into the thinking of the target audience.[4] SCL claimed to be able to help foment coups.[6] According to its website, SCL has influenced elections in Italy, Latvia, Ukraine, Albania, Romania, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Mauritius, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, Colombia, Antigua, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, St. Kitts & Nevis, Trinidad & Tobago.[2] While the company initially got involved in elections in the United Kingdom, it ceased to do so after 1997 because staff members did not exhibit the same "aloof sensibility" as with projects abroad.[4]...
Perhaps Nix was employed for his aloof sensibility towards the UK's political process... ?
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
Trump is a baddie. Obama is a goodie.
That's pathetic, even for you.
It is possible to harness the power of social media in a legal (and even a cheap) way. What CA have been accused of doing for its clients goes way beyond that.
Media narrative always plays a role.
I have no idea of whether CA breached the law or Facebook’s TOS.
But we may well see a company destroyed regardless of guilt or innocence.
(The more amusing allegations - Ukrainian hookers et al - I am inclined to believe are Bertie trying to play the big man / be in with the “cool kids”. It would fit his personality especially after a few drinks)
Nah, you just said some biased sh*t. I
Given your defence of Mylan over the Epipen scandal (and which they recently got a humongous fine for), I'm unsure you're in a position to determine guilt or innocence, especially where you've made money. It seems to rather colour your judgement.
As for your last paragraph: I knew you'd claim to know the people involved. You surround yourself with such a hive of scum and villainy.
Have I missed something? I thought we had been guaranteed the 2020 catch would be the same as 2019?
The cynic in me says expectations were raised in a rather deceitful manner about BREXIT to a lot of voters, the fishermen are just finding out today......
In 2021 we’ll be outside
The issue is the decision is made in Dec 19 for the whole of the 20 season.
We’ve be guaranteed it will be the same as 19.
It’s far from a given we’ll be outside anything much in 2021, in practical terms. The Irish border issue has not gone away. Neither has the business case for the status quo. The can has been kicked down the road a little, but time is running out.
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
Trump is a baddie. Obama is a goodie.
Isn’t it more that the Obama campaign explicitly sought people’s consent, while CA harvested data without permission? In other words, they essentially stole it.
Actually GSR (where erstwhile Kremlin-sponsored Dr. Spectre, aka Kogan was based) got their hands on the data under the pretext of academic research. They then sold the data to Cambridge Analytica.
Have I missed something? I thought we had been guaranteed the 2020 catch would be the same as 2019?
The cynic in me says expectations were raised in a rather deceitful manner about BREXIT to a lot of voters, the fishermen are just finding out today......
In 2021 we’ll be outside
The issue is the decision is made in Dec 19 for the whole of the 20 season.
We’ve be guaranteed it will be the same as 19.
It’s far from a given we’ll be outside anything much in 2021, in practical terms. The Irish border issue has not gone away. Neither has the business case for the status quo. The can has been kicked down the road a little, but time is running out.
Time is running out, but we've progressed much further than many doom-mongers predicted.
I'm bored with Brexit now. I think the way it was done was a mistake, but let's just leave the fanatics on both sides to argue amongst themselves (*) and look at sorting the more important issues facing the country.
(*) Perhaps OGH could provide a padded room in which they could be put? A PB Brexit Royale room, where Brexit-obsessed posters entered but only one emerges?
Not been keeping up with this CA story - can someone explain the difference between Obama “harnessing the power of social media” (widely praised at the time) and what team Trump is alleged to have done?
Trump is a baddie. Obama is a goodie.
That's pathetic, even for you.
It is possible to harness the power of social media in a legal (and even a cheap) way. What CA have been accused of doing for its clients goes way beyond that.
Media narrative always plays a role.
I have no idea of whether CA breached the law or Facebook’s TOS.
But we may well see a company destroyed regardless of guilt or innocence.
(The more amusing allegations - Ukrainian hookers et al - I am inclined to believe are Bertie trying to play the big man / be in with the “cool kids”. It would fit his personality especially after a few drinks)
Traffiking white girls to asian men in Telford - shocking scandal. Traffiking white girls to asian men in Sri Lanka - just a bit of banter, so nothing to see here.
Comments
Hard BREXIT looking doomed Isay doooommmmeeeedd.
ISTR that Mr Blair & Ms Booth settled it between them that whoever first won a seat would pursue a political career and the other would continue in the legal profession. There's an intriguing counter-factual!
Tangentially, a genuine question: are whistleblowing policies for organisations worth the paper they are written on as far as employees (private or government) are concerned? Seems like that you need a policy to promise not to mistreat whistleblowers is a good indication that the will to punish them will exist, and you can have all the policies you want that will to punish will still be there, and find an out.
And governments are happy to do so - for their own voters that is.
Nice to see shes come over to Labours position.
Why on earth did Gove raise expectations on Fish FFS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_federal_election
At the moment Trudeau is Obama and Scheer is Romney in my view, the shine has come off the liberal, the conservative party has a dull but competent leader but in the end the charismatic liberal is still likely to win albeit less strongly than last time
We don't do that sort of thing
We do it, but it is completely legal
Ok, maybe it isn't legal now, but we should make it legal
See, I told you it was legal
Nix speaks of setting up fake IDs, websites, and identities in target countries to gather information and blackmail material. Former Cambridge Analytica employees have admitted to The Guardian of working on tourist visas during Trump’s election campaign. Cambridge Analytica, Nix says, can subcontract—to Israeli spy firms, for example—and operate under different names for extra layers of obfuscation. Turnbull mentions an unnamed Eastern European country where the company “ghosted in,” and then disappeared after the job was done...
It’s a matter of time, although the U.K. will be one of the last jurisdictions to get serious - we are laissez faire to the point of self harm.
Hayward and Travers also said outside London the Tories voteshare is holding up much better and they are likely to do well in marginal rich Staffordshire and the East and West Midlands. The Tories may well stop Labour taking Trafford too even if it falls to NOC.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tories-set-to-hit-record-low-number-of-london-councillors-pollster-lord-hayward-warns-theresa-may_uk_5aafd9a6e4b0e8623839ed92
[1] The US has an interesting rule that the postmarked date is usually counted for meeting submission deadlines, and for elections you usually have up to election day to post your absentee ballot. This rule saved my bacon when I submitted my naturalization application just before the fees went up two Christmases ago. It wasn’t received by US Citizenship and Immigration Services until after the deadline because of Christmas mail volumes, but because I’d posted it before the deadline I got it at the lower fees.
Which they do in the US too.
However, there, a lot of their personal fortune has gone in too!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-43465700
In the footage, asked what "deep digging" could be done, Mr Nix told an undercover reporter: "Oh, we do a lot more than that."
He suggested one way to target an individual was to "offer them a deal that's too good to be true and make sure that's video recorded".
He also said he could "send some girls around to the candidate's house..." adding that Ukrainian girls "are very beautiful, I find that works very well".
Mr Nix continued: "I'm just giving you examples of what can be done and what has been done."
Blow the whistle on those senior to you though...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/the-silicon-joke/
"In playing along with this line of conversation, and partly to spare our 'client' from embarrassment, we entertained a series of ludicrous hypothetical scenarios," the company said in a statement.
Oh yeah, that makes sense. Question to the company - if said 'client' was asking about such ludicrous scenarios, why did you 'play along' with them at all? Bullcrap, pure Bullcrap.
Night all.
http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/379209-cambridge-analytica-five-things-to-watch
Interesting that Dr Spectre received a Kremlin grant at one point, for research into the use of social media...
Cambridge Analytica are in deep shit and they are not going to get out of it.
It’s like that f***ing scene in the Wire.
Same reason why the Russians targeted the Cambridge 5, they went for the best, if they wanted third rate no marks they’d have gone to Cowley Tech.
Edit - come to think of it, your list of reasons why 'of course I don't like it' does not contain a single thing which I complained about, so being charitable I will assume you meant to reply to a completely different post, since the alternative is you didn't read what I said.
The next set of indictments are liable to include a number of people who just haven't come up amongst the well known & prominent names until the point they get charged.
e.g Google's new Google Photos update can now automatically share your selfies
https://mashable.com/2017/05/17/google-photos-update/#5FSz3i6rHqqy
As soon as I saw that, I thought that sounds like potential for trouble, but there Google prance around the stage telling everybody how clever their ML techniques for id'ing people, places, objects etc.
I know in the early 2000s Microsoft started to hire hackers to join their security team, because they found their software engineers would implement a solutions but have little concept of how that could be hacked or broken or misused.
The current state of play, it feels a little bit like with but with personal data and ML algorithms.
https://twitter.com/AndrewScheer/status/975514184548081664
That I am only in favour of the public sector came as a shock, not least considering my support for austerity over the years. I shall probably have to take back that Tory vote in 2017 as well, for good measure, given my apparent support only for unions.
I won't deny that I have friends who spent time in the fenland hellhole, and it has produced some decent science... but a bit lacking in the civilisation department.
Also, the whistleblower said that Facebook send him a request to delete his personal copy of the data and all the proof they required was that he sent a form back to them.
Now I am sure technically it is all legally enforceable, but its a bit late once you have scraped, collected and distributed 200 million profiles.
Again it sort of shows an attitude of oh he is an academic, we come from that sort of environment, and in our experience everybody plays nice there, shares code and data and is generally ethical. Naive would be the word that comes to mind.
And cameras record rather than imply.
"The rockets go up, who cares where they come down?
That's not my department," says Werner von Braun.
A subtext running through some of the stories is that the techniques have been used before to manipulate other people's elections. I'm not sure any big power is totally clean.
In the end though Obama won in 2012 but only by about 3.5% compared to the 7% he won by in 2008, I expect a similar story in Canada next year but we shall see, Trudeau's Liberals led the Tories by about 8% in 2015 when he came to power.
Also apart from the Telegraph re the fishermen the rest of the newspapers are hailing it as a break through.
Re fishing I am concerned and fully support the Scots fishermen but not sure how an extra 18 months is a problem - we get back our coastal waters on the 1st January 2021
I expect it to smooth over but that is upto TM and Ruth Davidson to reassure the fishermen that they will not be sacrificed in the deal
PS Whistleblowing is my specialist subject. Writing a shiny procedure, which is all most companies ever focus on, is nowhere near what’s needed. But it is late, I have a sore throat and have a busy day working tomorrow so need my sleep. Another time.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/975861655992193025
"Trump pushes death penalty for some drug dealers"
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/19/politics/opioid-policy-trump-new-hampshire/index.html
If we sacrifice our territorial waters from 2021 onwards too to achieve a deal then I'd expect much more uproar than over an 18 month transition.
Therein would lay another story.
More from the Mueller investigation soon, no doubting that at all.
If only fishermen were not getting what they want then absolutely fair enough. But currently nobody who wanted a change is getting what they want prior to 2021. To quote a common phrase there is no cherrypicking here.
https://twitter.com/oxfordanalytica/status/975817636532707333
Note all of the above could have been scraped a different way, but would have been much more inefficient to do. The way it was done allowed them to capture info on 100,000s of profiles in just a few days.
Now real issue is that the academic agreed with Facebook that the data they would hand over was for academic purposes only. Instead it has been leveraged by a private company.
What is unclear at the moment is how strong are Facebook ToS and what exact agreement everybody signed up for i.e the Facebook users, Facebook and the academic. In the mountains of legalize it might be that all that has gone on is fine, because we all signed up to it when we joined Facebook.
Cambridge Analytica - founded 2013
Typical FenPoly - copy, then screw up.....
Part of this feels a bit like refighting Trump & Brexit....”How could we possibly lose? We were right! It must be something else....”
God how the EU have twisted the reality of what is actually normal....
The sadder but more realistic option is that she is just utterly clueless. There is no way an acceptable deal can be reached from this point and on this process. The only people who can support continued negotiations are either in denial of the reality or actively want the UK to fail.
http://www.seafish.org/media/publications/Tariffs_on_imported_seafood_170330.pdf
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/us/cambridge-analytica-alexander-nix.html
Does it mean we will see the Kate Hoey and Farage back on the Thames together?
VW sell about 5-6% of their annual car production to the UK - I dont think they will be too bothered about UK BREXIT. The fishing industry are like Turkeys who voted for Christmas
The issue is the decision is made in Dec 19 for the whole of the 20 season.
We’ve be guaranteed it will be the same as 19.
It is possible to harness the power of social media in a legal (and even a cheap) way. What CA have been accused of doing for its clients goes way beyond that.
I have no idea of whether CA breached the law or Facebook’s TOS.
But we may well see a company destroyed regardless of guilt or innocence.
(The more amusing allegations - Ukrainian hookers et al - I am inclined to believe are Bertie trying to play the big man / be in with the “cool kids”. It would fit his personality especially after a few drinks)
In any event, the attachment to ratfucking seems to have originated at the parent company SCL, long before Nix:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCL_Group
SCL’s involvement in the political world has been primarily in the developing world where it has been used by the military and politicians to study and manipulate public opinion and political will. It uses what have been called “psy ops” to provide insight into the thinking of the target audience.[4] SCL claimed to be able to help foment coups.[6] According to its website, SCL has influenced elections in Italy, Latvia, Ukraine, Albania, Romania, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Mauritius, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, Colombia, Antigua, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, St. Kitts & Nevis, Trinidad & Tobago.[2] While the company initially got involved in elections in the United Kingdom, it ceased to do so after 1997 because staff members did not exhibit the same "aloof sensibility" as with projects abroad.[4]...
Perhaps Nix was employed for his aloof sensibility towards the UK's political process... ?
Given your defence of Mylan over the Epipen scandal (and which they recently got a humongous fine for), I'm unsure you're in a position to determine guilt or innocence, especially where you've made money. It seems to rather colour your judgement.
As for your last paragraph: I knew you'd claim to know the people involved. You surround yourself with such a hive of scum and villainy.
That any of this was arms length is somewhat undercut by GSR's other founding director now being employed by Facebook:
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/18/facebook-cambridge-analytica-joseph-chancellor-gsr
I'm bored with Brexit now. I think the way it was done was a mistake, but let's just leave the fanatics on both sides to argue amongst themselves (*) and look at sorting the more important issues facing the country.
(*) Perhaps OGH could provide a padded room in which they could be put? A PB Brexit Royale room, where Brexit-obsessed posters entered but only one emerges?
To coin a phrase "Lock them up!"