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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP drops to just 1% in latest ICM poll

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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435

    Dura_Ace said:

    Off topic, I’m reading Richard Dannatt’s fascinating new book at the moment “Boots on the Ground”.

    The section on Afghanistan (where I am in the book now) makes some pretty sobering reading.

    John Reid on 23rd April 2006: “We would be perfectly happy to leave in three years time without having fired a shot.”

    Just six months later, by October, just one battalion- 3rd parachute regiment - had fired 479,000 rounds of ammunition.

    By August 2009, for all British forces up to that date, it was up to 12 million.

    Even though it was supposed to be the good war Afghanistan turned out to be a bigger shit show than Iraq. The UK took way more KIAs for an arguably more fucked up result.

    I agree it is difficult to assess what long-lasting benefits our presence in Afghanistan really delivered.
    I think it's more of an issue to think about what would have happened if we didn't go in. if the Taliban and Al-Queda had been let to get stronger.

    It's been bloody and a mess, but they have been contained to a degree.
    substantial parts of the area under UK responsibility in 2006-14 are now under the Taliban...many lives, blood and treasure for not very much at all.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,328
    If

    Mr. kle4, I'm watching Babylon 5 (for the first time) on Pick [weekdays at 8pm]. The episode Intersections In Real Time was on last time. Whole episode was Sheridan (leader of Babylon 5) being interrogated. Did an excellent job of portraying the physical and psychological torment. He can get out, but has to renounce his fight (against a tyrant) and confess to subversion.

    A key part of the script is the destruction of objective truth. If the interrogator says it's night, it's night. If he says it's morning, it's morning. Very reminiscent of Room 101 from 1984. Sheridan's punished for disagreeing. Truth comes from authority, not one's own observations.

    The whole show, despite being 20 years old, is incredibly timely. A man (Count Dankula on Twitter) was yesterday found guilty of a crime, in a court in the UK (Scottish, I think), because he was 'grossly offensive' by training his pug to give a Nazi salute. Meanwhile, Hope Not Hate are one step away from calling for books to be burnt.

    https://twitter.com/hopenothate/status/975684029226913792

    It’s an absolutely disgusting post, which is truly shocking - even for them. I never thought I’d see them plumb those depths.

    I note they haven’t listed any examples of the titles that cause them “concern”, and are repeating tired old canards about not providing a platform, or providing credibility, so can only surmise they simply don’t like the politics.

    If they don’t like the Sun or the Mail, and draw no distinction between that and David Irving, then they will have no issue banning Max Hastings, Lawrence James, Ian Fleming, or David Starkey.
    Indeed. i think some of the example they actually do give might be reasonable to have concern over, but it's idiotic to now lump all these things together.

    They should bring up individual books and let people decide, not an nebulous 'racist/nazi' books which could mean anything,
    I couldn’t care less if they were all selling Meine Kampf on offer with a free book of Goebels propaganda posters.

    There’s something to be learned from any book.

    Any.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    Sure, the turnout gap might turn in Labour's favour. But not while Corbyn is leader. That's the reason why the Tory turnout was at 80% - despite the Tories doing their best to lose the election.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    edited March 2018
    IanB2 said:
    Christianity, especially the Catholic Church, is no longer focused on Europe.

    Europe though still relatively rich is falling as a percentage of global population and apart from Italy, whose capital houses the Papacy and Ireland and parts of Eastern Europe most of the continent is now largely secular. The major growth markets for Christianity now are Latin America, hence an Argentine Pope and Africa, Africa is also the area with the biggest growth in population, by 2050 there should be over a billion Africans more than double the number of Europeans.

    In Nigeria for example 96% see religion as important to their lives compared to just 27% in the UK

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Importance_of_religion_by_country
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    That puts to bed the suggestion that lots of Tories stayed at home in 2017.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,070
    'SCL – a Very British Coup'

    https://tinyurl.com/yc9abevw

    Is Eton one of dem extremist schools churning out zealots who threaten our way of life?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    JRM has a good sense of humour this morning, when it was suggested he be joining the protest on the Thames today:
    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/976067461459083264
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,328
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Off topic, I’m reading Richard Dannatt’s fascinating new book at the moment “Boots on the Ground”.

    The section on Afghanistan (where I am in the book now) makes some pretty sobering reading.

    John Reid on 23rd April 2006: “We would be perfectly happy to leave in three years time without having fired a shot.”

    Just six months later, by October, just one battalion- 3rd parachute regiment - had fired 479,000 rounds of ammunition.

    By August 2009, for all British forces up to that date, it was up to 12 million.

    Even though it was supposed to be the good war Afghanistan turned out to be a bigger shit show than Iraq. The UK took way more KIAs for an arguably more fucked up result.

    I agree it is difficult to assess what long-lasting benefits our presence in Afghanistan really delivered.
    Oh only the removal and death of Bin Laden and the Taliban no longer in government.

    The former was of course the main aim following 9/11 after Bin Laden planned it from there, without 9/11 Afghanistan would not have been invaded
    Both were achieved well prior to 2006.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,328

    TOPPING said:

    Off topic, I’m reading Richard Dannatt’s fascinating new book at the moment “Boots on the Ground”.

    The section on Afghanistan (where I am in the book now) makes some pretty sobering reading.

    John Reid on 23rd April 2006: “We would be perfectly happy to leave in three years time without having fired a shot.”

    Just six months later, by October, just one battalion- 3rd parachute regiment - had fired 479,000 rounds of ammunition.

    By August 2009, for all British forces up to that date, it was up to 12 million.

    That John Reid quote was slightly taken out of context and wasn't quite as naive as it is now presented.

    There is also a body of work which is interesting by authors such as Frank Ledwidge and Jack Fairweather which give a sobering view of our military escapades in Afghan and Iraq.
    what was really scandalous was that British troops already in Iraq were systematically underequipped and funded to fight this new war as the Generals scented a few more medals, battles and boys own adventures and told the Politicians the military could fight two difficult counter insurgencies at the same time....
    I think that’s a cop out.

    Both Iraq and Afghanistan were political decisions. Generals certainly weren’t dictating anything to the New Labour Government under Blair at the time, and nor was anyone else.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,605
    Religions have good things to say in the realm of moral philosophy. However, strapped on to that are a whole load of irrational beliefs and strange rituals. (God is a bit of a contrarian if he/she/it insists that I uncover my head in a Christian church but cover my head in a Sikh gurdwara.)

    If they could become, well, secular, then fewer people might be put off from listening what they have to say.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,979

    Sure, the turnout gap might turn in Labour's favour. But not while Corbyn is leader. That's the reason why the Tory turnout was at 80% - despite the Tories doing their best to lose the election.
    Take it thats people who said they were whatever before the election. Doesn’t necessarily mean they voted that way.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,209

    If

    Mr. kle4, I'm watching Babylon 5 (for the first time) on Pick [weekdays at 8pm]. The episode Intersections In Real Time was on last time. Whole episode was Sheridan (leader of Babylon 5) being interrogated. Did an excellent job of portraying the physical and psychological torment. He can get out, but has to renounce his fight (against a tyrant) and confess to subversion.

    A key part of the script is the destruction of objective truth. If the interrogator says it's night, it's night. If he says it's morning, it's morning. Very reminiscent of Room 101 from 1984. Sheridan's punished for disagreeing. Truth comes from authority, not one's own observations.

    The whole show, despite being 20 years old, is incredibly timely. A man (Count Dankula on Twitter) was yesterday found guilty of a crime, in a court in the UK (Scottish, I think), because he was 'grossly offensive' by training his pug to give a Nazi salute. Meanwhile, Hope Not Hate are one step away from calling for books to be burnt.

    https://twitter.com/hopenothate/status/975684029226913792

    It’s an absolutely disgusting post, which is truly shocking - even for them. I never thought I’d see them plumb those depths.

    I note they haven’t listed any examples of the titles that cause them “concern”, and are repeating tired old canards about not providing a platform, or providing credibility, so can only surmise they simply don’t like the politics.

    If they don’t like the Sun or the Mail, and draw no distinction between that and David Irving, then they will have no issue banning Max Hastings, Lawrence James, Ian Fleming, or David Starkey.
    Indeed. i think some of the example they actually do give might be reasonable to have concern over, but it's idiotic to now lump all these things together.

    They should bring up individual books and let people decide, not an nebulous 'racist/nazi' books which could mean anything,
    I couldn’t care less if they were all selling Meine Kampf on offer with a free book of Goebels propaganda posters.

    There’s something to be learned from any book.

    Any.
    Banning Meine Kampf would be a monumental mistake.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    edited March 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Off topic, I’m reading Richard Dannatt’s fascinating new book at the moment “Boots on the Ground”.

    The section on Afghanistan (where I am in the book now) makes some pretty sobering reading.

    John Reid on 23rd April 2006: “We would be perfectly happy to leave in three years time without having fired a shot.”

    Just six months later, by October, just one battalion- 3rd parachute regiment - had fired 479,000 rounds of ammunition.

    By August 2009, for all British forces up to that date, it was up to 12 million.

    Even though it was supposed to be the good war Afghanistan turned out to be a bigger shit show than Iraq. The UK took way more KIAs for an arguably more fucked up result.

    I agree it is difficult to assess what long-lasting benefits our presence in Afghanistan really delivered.
    Oh only the removal and death of Bin Laden and the Taliban no longer in government.

    The former was of course the main aim following 9/11 after Bin Laden planned it from there, without 9/11 Afghanistan would not have been invaded
    Both were achieved well prior to 2006.
    Yet it is still important to shore up the government and keep Al Qaeda remnants and ISIS out even if an accommodation may eventually be made with the Taliban
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991

    Religions have good things to say in the realm of moral philosophy. However, strapped on to that are a whole load of irrational beliefs and strange rituals. (God is a bit of a contrarian if he/she/it insists that I uncover my head in a Christian church but cover my head in a Sikh gurdwara.)

    If they could become, well, secular, then fewer people might be put off from listening what they have to say.

    If religions become secular they are pointless, see the Anglican Church sadly where there are now more young Catholics than Anglicans in the UK and almost as many young Muslims as young Anglicans
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836

    Dura_Ace said:

    Off topic, I’m reading Richard Dannatt’s fascinating new book at the moment “Boots on the Ground”.

    The section on Afghanistan (where I am in the book now) makes some pretty sobering reading.

    John Reid on 23rd April 2006: “We would be perfectly happy to leave in three years time without having fired a shot.”

    Just six months later, by October, just one battalion- 3rd parachute regiment - had fired 479,000 rounds of ammunition.

    By August 2009, for all British forces up to that date, it was up to 12 million.

    Even though it was supposed to be the good war Afghanistan turned out to be a bigger shit show than Iraq. The UK took way more KIAs for an arguably more fucked up result.

    I agree it is difficult to assess what long-lasting benefits our presence in Afghanistan really delivered.
    I think it's more of an issue to think about what would have happened if we didn't go in. if the Taliban and Al-Queda had been let to get stronger.

    It's been bloody and a mess, but they have been contained to a degree.
    substantial parts of the area under UK responsibility in 2006-14 are now under the Taliban...many lives, blood and treasure for not very much at all.
    Much less of Afghanistan is under Taliban control than in 2001, Al Qaeda is now a marginal presence, and millions of refugees (many of whom would otherwise have made their way to Europe) have now returned. So, I'd say it was worth it.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. HYUFD, I disagree, it's not the Anglican shift to a more liberal approach that's weakened it, but the failure to defend its own basic values. There was a church where a Muslim was invited to preach Islam. Good interfaith relations is a good idea, but inviting someone who doesn't believe the central tenet of your faith to preach something contrary to the Gospels is just bloody stupid.

    Might also help if they weren't led by the Archsocialist.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836

    If

    Mr. kle4, I'm watching Babylon 5 (for the first time) on Pick [weekdays at 8pm]. The episode Intersections In Real Time was on last time. Whole episode was Sheridan (leader of Babylon 5) being interrogated. Did an excellent job of portraying the physical and psychological torment. He can get out, but has to renounce his fight (against a tyrant) and confess to subversion.

    A key part of the script is the destruction of objective truth. If the interrogator says it's night, it's night. If he says it's morning, it's morning. Very reminiscent of Room 101 from 1984. Sheridan's punished for disagreeing. Truth comes from authority, not one's own observations.

    The whole show, despite being 20 years old, is incredibly timely. A man (Count Dankula on Twitter) was yesterday found guilty of a crime, in a court in the UK (Scottish, I think), because he was 'grossly offensive' by training his pug to give a Nazi salute. Meanwhile, Hope Not Hate are one step away from calling for books to be burnt.

    https://twitter.com/hopenothate/status/975684029226913792

    It’s an absolutely disgusting post, which is truly shocking - even for them. I never thought I’d see them plumb those depths.

    I note they haven’t listed any examples of the titles that cause them “concern”, and are repeating tired old canards about not providing a platform, or providing credibility, so can only surmise they simply don’t like the politics.

    If they don’t like the Sun or the Mail, and draw no distinction between that and David Irving, then they will have no issue banning Max Hastings, Lawrence James, Ian Fleming, or David Starkey.
    Indeed. i think some of the example they actually do give might be reasonable to have concern over, but it's idiotic to now lump all these things together.

    They should bring up individual books and let people decide, not an nebulous 'racist/nazi' books which could mean anything,
    I couldn’t care less if they were all selling Meine Kampf on offer with a free book of Goebels propaganda posters.

    There’s something to be learned from any book.

    Any.
    Banning Meine Kampf would be a monumental mistake.
    This is a stupid campaign. Nazi books are important to students of history and politics.

    Ironically, Nick Lowles has been no-platformed by NUS.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115

    Sure, the turnout gap might turn in Labour's favour. But not while Corbyn is leader. That's the reason why the Tory turnout was at 80% - despite the Tories doing their best to lose the election.
    Take it thats people who said they were whatever before the election. Doesn’t necessarily mean they voted that way.
    No evidence in the latest polling that Corbyn is on course to be PM.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    Sandpit said:

    JRM has a good sense of humour this morning, when it was suggested he be joining the protest on the Thames today:
    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/976067461459083264

    A dab hand at it...
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836

    Mr. HYUFD, I disagree, it's not the Anglican shift to a more liberal approach that's weakened it, but the failure to defend its own basic values. There was a church where a Muslim was invited to preach Islam. Good interfaith relations is a good idea, but inviting someone who doesn't believe the central tenet of your faith to preach something contrary to the Gospels is just bloody stupid.

    Might also help if they weren't led by the Archsocialist.

    I think the political stance of the C of E has cost it support.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,605
    HYUFD said:

    Religions have good things to say in the realm of moral philosophy. However, strapped on to that are a whole load of irrational beliefs and strange rituals. (God is a bit of a contrarian if he/she/it insists that I uncover my head in a Christian church but cover my head in a Sikh gurdwara.)

    If they could become, well, secular, then fewer people might be put off from listening what they have to say.

    If religions become secular they are pointless, see the Anglican Church sadly where there are now more young Catholics than Anglicans in the UK and almost as many young Muslims as young Anglicans
    Then where should we turn for moral guidance? Philosophy professors don't get as much exposure as religious leaders in the media - perhaps they should.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    I see Facebook has blocked the Facebook whistleblower from Facebook Messenger, designating his posts as “abusive” or “spam”.

    Not a good look.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836

    HYUFD said:

    Religions have good things to say in the realm of moral philosophy. However, strapped on to that are a whole load of irrational beliefs and strange rituals. (God is a bit of a contrarian if he/she/it insists that I uncover my head in a Christian church but cover my head in a Sikh gurdwara.)

    If they could become, well, secular, then fewer people might be put off from listening what they have to say.

    If religions become secular they are pointless, see the Anglican Church sadly where there are now more young Catholics than Anglicans in the UK and almost as many young Muslims as young Anglicans
    Then where should we turn for moral guidance? Philosophy professors don't get as much exposure as religious leaders in the media - perhaps they should.
    AC Grayling?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Rentool, in ancient times, religion was about ritual, and philosophy was the realm of morality. Marcus Aurelius was a stoic.

    Mr. Walker, indeed. Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

    On that note, my second, and silly, Twitter account, HeroofHornska, strangely doesn't have a timeline tweet show up (though it does in replies, I think) when I RTed someone who wrote that lesbians apparently need qualifications now. [He said he self-identified as a woman and was looking forward to the oral exam, or something similar].

    Likewise, HeroofHornska posted a picture of the Renault under a black cover, speaking of the banning of grid girls and now even cars having to wear burkhas. Someone replied. I don't know who, because it doesn't show.

    For a social media, Twitter is very fond of trying to shape what people can and cannot do and see.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    The EU issue is over, yes, but there is a gap in the market here for one of those rather vulgar ethno-nationalist parties that seem to be doing more than ok elsewhere. Ukip should go for that if they want to stay relevant. With an effective leader I can see them back over 10%.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Mr. HYUFD, I disagree, it's not the Anglican shift to a more liberal approach that's weakened it, but the failure to defend its own basic values. There was a church where a Muslim was invited to preach Islam. Good interfaith relations is a good idea, but inviting someone who doesn't believe the central tenet of your faith to preach something contrary to the Gospels is just bloody stupid.

    Might also help if they weren't led by the Archsocialist.

    Like the police though, the rank and file in the CofE are generally very conservative (small C) but the officer class are cliche leftie types. If you want to rise you have to ape the views of your bosses.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Sandpit said:

    JRM has a good sense of humour this morning, when it was suggested he be joining the protest on the Thames today:
    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/976067461459083264

    A dab hand at it...
    I find it all exasperating. i voted to leave, i wasnt quite expecting us to leave the single market, but thats the way it is. What we have now is a pretty darn thorough Brexit. That we have a transition period, which is clearly defined is hardly the end of the world. So there's going to be a 21 month transition for fisheries. Considering theyve been in the CFP for over forty years, a further 21 months is hardly the end of the world.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Notme, this reminds me a bit of 2011 looting. The ordinary coppers wanted to get stuck in and do their jobs, the limp-wristed bigwigs faffed about for days until things were far worse than they should've been.

    We currently have more convictions for those who train their dogs to give Nazi salutes than FGM.
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    On the NHS pay rise I understand it is targetted at the lower paid and that a porter will see a pay rise from £15,000 to £19,000 within the period of the deal
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,070

    malcolmg said:

    English version of that interview with Russian scientist involved in development of suspected Salisbury nerve agent:

    https://twitter.com/hdevreij/status/976223787564838914?s=20

    Bored to tears with it by now , Tories can keep their faux outrage and keep on supporting their chosen Dictator's.
    Putin was for SINDY, wasn’t he.....
    Not according to this Unionist paper.

    'Cameron's plea to Putin: help me stop Salmond'

    https://tinyurl.com/y9wsgkqk
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    On fishing Sky have joined a boat on the Thames and suddenly popping into the camera lens is Farage.

    What a turn off he is and I support the fishermen 100%
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    notme said:

    Sandpit said:

    JRM has a good sense of humour this morning, when it was suggested he be joining the protest on the Thames today:
    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/976067461459083264

    A dab hand at it...
    I find it all exasperating. i voted to leave, i wasnt quite expecting us to leave the single market, but thats the way it is. What we have now is a pretty darn thorough Brexit. That we have a transition period, which is clearly defined is hardly the end of the world. So there's going to be a 21 month transition for fisheries. Considering theyve been in the CFP for over forty years, a further 21 months is hardly the end of the world.
    The Scottish Tory MPs would be better advised getting grants to upgrade the trawler fleet when we do finally exit the CFP. 21 months extra to build and equip some state of the art vessels, purchased using some very soft loans from the Govt. out of the "Brexit bonus". They could sell that as a win, come their re-election.

    Alternatively, this has all been set up between the negotiators as something that the EU can later backtrack on (21 down to 9 months?), whilst not having to move on more important matters. The more noise these protesting MPs make now, the bigger the win they will project they have got. But the more we will lose somethign even more important, later on in the proceedings.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    Noof red.
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    NEW THREAD

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991

    HYUFD said:

    Religions have good things to say in the realm of moral philosophy. However, strapped on to that are a whole load of irrational beliefs and strange rituals. (God is a bit of a contrarian if he/she/it insists that I uncover my head in a Christian church but cover my head in a Sikh gurdwara.)

    If they could become, well, secular, then fewer people might be put off from listening what they have to say.

    If religions become secular they are pointless, see the Anglican Church sadly where there are now more young Catholics than Anglicans in the UK and almost as many young Muslims as young Anglicans
    Then where should we turn for moral guidance? Philosophy professors don't get as much exposure as religious leaders in the media - perhaps they should.
    Most RE lessons at school now include philosophy
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991

    Mr. HYUFD, I disagree, it's not the Anglican shift to a more liberal approach that's weakened it, but the failure to defend its own basic values. There was a church where a Muslim was invited to preach Islam. Good interfaith relations is a good idea, but inviting someone who doesn't believe the central tenet of your faith to preach something contrary to the Gospels is just bloody stupid.

    Might also help if they weren't led by the Archsocialist.

    It is both liberalism and an unwillingness to defend its own values, yes
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Religions have good things to say in the realm of moral philosophy. However, strapped on to that are a whole load of irrational beliefs and strange rituals. (God is a bit of a contrarian if he/she/it insists that I uncover my head in a Christian church but cover my head in a Sikh gurdwara.)

    If they could become, well, secular, then fewer people might be put off from listening what they have to say.

    If religions become secular they are pointless, see the Anglican Church sadly where there are now more young Catholics than Anglicans in the UK and almost as many young Muslims as young Anglicans
    Then where should we turn for moral guidance? Philosophy professors don't get as much exposure as religious leaders in the media - perhaps they should.
    Most RE lessons at school now include philosophy
    RE is always a waste of time. Nobody takes it seriously. It should be relabelled Philosoply and Religion and treated seriously.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    kinabalu said:

    The EU issue is over, yes, but there is a gap in the market here for one of those rather vulgar ethno-nationalist parties that seem to be doing more than ok elsewhere. Ukip should go for that if they want to stay relevant. With an effective leader I can see them back over 10%.

    It's to the credit of the British people that such parties have been very poorly supported, the BNP had a few councillors and two MEPs, while the NF, Britain First etc have gone nowhere in elections. Some elements of UKIP were a little unsavoury, but having achieved their aim of leaving the EU they've vanished back down to 1% - where they'll probably stay unless Brexit doesn't happen.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,600

    On the NHS pay rise I understand it is targetted at the lower paid and that a porter will see a pay rise from £15,000 to £19,000 within the period of the deal

    Most portering and cleaning Band 1 jobs are now outsourced to companies like Interserve on minimum wage Zero Hours Contracts, so will not benefit.
This discussion has been closed.