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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If its Corbyn versus May again next time my money would be on

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited March 21 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If its Corbyn versus May again next time my money would be on the Tories

We could be more than four years away from the next general election and it is possible that neither Corbyn or Theresa May will be leading the parties by then. But if the two were to be the main party leaders next time, whenever that is, my money would be on the Conservatives.

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Comments

  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,239
    First
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    edited March 21
    Second like Corbyn....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    edited March 21
    "One thing’s for sure that if May is still heading blue team, which she wants to do, then she is going to perform a lot lot better than she did a few last year. "

    She's going to have to have some bloody good years of campaigning in the meantime. To be fair, she has upped her game recently. The real trick to perform though is delivering a Goldilocks Brexit - not too hard, not too soft. If she can do that - keeping trade from falling off a cliff whilst waving goodbye to Brussels as an overbearing force in voters' lives - she will have done what most voters want of her. They might even reward her for it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,647
    edited March 21
    Second? Surely not.

    Edit: 4th. Ugh.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750
    Indeed. Of course Merkel underperformed in her first general election in 2005 and failed to win a majority for her centre right coalition and had to do a grand coalition with the SPD. 4 years later she won a majority for the centre right with the FDP
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,148
    Spartan If of the day. More likely neither than both.
  • Nah. She’s still a crap campaigner.

    She’s a VW Diesel engine in a hybrid world.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed. Of course Merkel underperformed in her first general election in 2005 and failed to win a majority for her centre right coalition and had to do a grand coalition with the SPD. 4 years later she won a majority for the centre right with the FDP

    For once I think this is a very good analogy from you, although Merkel started out with more self-awareness than May.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,380
    I wouldn't disagree that the Tories are favourites to win most seats. However, I still expect them to go into opposition against a formal/informal Progressive Alliance.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,669
    People feel we live in a potentially very dangerous world - indeed much of the world around is not as peaceable as this island and they want a Prime minister who is passionate about defending our national security. Jeremy Corbyn gives no inclination that he is passionate about that. The assumption many will have is that he is only really passionate about fighting the Tories with their 'murderous' war on Britain's poor.

    There is the other central problem of patriotism. Is this a man happy singing the national anthem? If he isn't at least somewhat patriotic about this island then he is out of step with most of its citizens. So you can forget trying to take a more 'nuanced' approach to events in Salisbury, he's never going to get a hearing.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,542
    Some canvassing insights... Ive got it wrong and ive been spot on in the past. I missed the Corbyn surge.. but there we go.
    Canvassing in Brexit voting northern tory marginal is showing rock solid data. Its normal to come across voters switching from one to another in a canvass, but this is pretty much no change. The odd one or two moving to Tories from last year, but probably offset elsewhere. Absolutley rock solid from the local and general election last year (the corbyn surge didnt show up the canvass last time). In fact i dont remember it been as stable from one year to the next as it is now.

    Question to ponder, will those who dont vote Tory be motivated enough to come out in the local elections, and result in the usual mid term drubbing a party of government would expect through differential turnout?

    (i understand that London is a very different situation)
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 356
    T May will have a silver dagger sticking in her back long before the next election..........
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,085

    Nah. She’s still a crap campaigner.

    She’s a VW Diesel engine in a hybrid world.

    Does that make Corbyn a Lada?
  • Nah. She’s still a crap campaigner.

    She’s a VW Diesel engine in a hybrid world.

    Does that make Corbyn a Lada?
    When it comes to campaigning he’s a Prius.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,647
    edited March 21
    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750

    HYUFD said:

    Indeed. Of course Merkel underperformed in her first general election in 2005 and failed to win a majority for her centre right coalition and had to do a grand coalition with the SPD. 4 years later she won a majority for the centre right with the FDP

    For once I think this is a very good analogy from you, although Merkel started out with more self-awareness than May.
    Perhaps but Merkel is a better model for May than Thatcher agreed, it was trying to be something she wasn't and the 'new Iron Lady' in the Mail's terms last time which just came across as arrogant when May like Merkel is more built on compromise and detail than being a warrior a la Thatcher
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,494
    Good morning all.

    Let's face it, neither is a particularly appetizing prospect. Put a gun to my head and I'd pick May over Corbyn, but with no enthusiasm.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,117
    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108

    Nah. She’s still a crap campaigner.

    She’s a VW Diesel engine in a hybrid world.

    Does that make Corbyn a Lada?
    When it comes to campaigning he’s a Prius.
    I always think Prius is an unfortunate name, in that it suggests somewhere between a prick and an anus....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,542
    JonathanD said:

    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018

    It's as close as you can get to a jobs miracle. Truly remarkable. We are going to miss it when it goes wrong, as it always does.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 356

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    I agree, all the major parties are hoping that the stars look down on them and produce an inspirational leader hence the geriatric nature of British politics- trouble is you don't know it until the dust settles
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,890
    However, public borrowing numbers were poor.

    OTOH, wages have just edged above inflation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750
    notme said:

    Some canvassing insights... Ive got it wrong and ive been spot on in the past. I missed the Corbyn surge.. but there we go.
    Canvassing in Brexit voting northern tory marginal is showing rock solid data. Its normal to come across voters switching from one to another in a canvass, but this is pretty much no change. The odd one or two moving to Tories from last year, but probably offset elsewhere. Absolutley rock solid from the local and general election last year (the corbyn surge didnt show up the canvass last time). In fact i dont remember it been as stable from one year to the next as it is now.

    Question to ponder, will those who dont vote Tory be motivated enough to come out in the local elections, and result in the usual mid term drubbing a party of government would expect through differential turnout?

    (i understand that London is a very different situation)

    Plus Labour is defending a 2% lead in 2014 in the locals, at the 2017 general election Labour was trying to reduce a 7% Tory lead in 2015
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,239
    Crickey, do the Standard employ that many people to hand out copies at tube stations?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 356
    notme said:

    JonathanD said:

    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018

    It's as close as you can get to a jobs miracle. Truly remarkable. We are going to miss it when it goes wrong, as it always does.
    I'm not sure it feels like a jobs miracle for those at the bottom getting their council tax bills for next year along with a host of other rises in train fares, postage, clothing and gas bills
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,647
    HYUFD said:

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM
    I know that. I’m talking about the c.10% lift in the Labour vote as a result of her taking over.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,117
    edited March 21
    Sean_F said:

    However, public borrowing numbers were poor.

    OTOH, wages have just edged above inflation.
    No they are still below, there is a month delay between inflation and wage growth figures. Next month probably though.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,669
    I think you need to be a little wary of saluting the 'record number of people in employment' statistics. Most people will think it's largely because the population of the UK is rising unsustainably, so naturally there are a record number in work.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750

    HYUFD said:

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM
    I know that. I’m talking about the c.10% lift in the Labour vote as a result of her taking over.
    That 10% lift came mainly from squeezing the Greens and NZ First, the governing Nationals comfortably won the popular vote and most seats with 44% to Labour's 37%.

    In the UK Corbyn has already squeezed the Greens and LDs down about as far as they will go and the Tories were also on 44% with ICM yesterday
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,542

    notme said:

    JonathanD said:

    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018

    It's as close as you can get to a jobs miracle. Truly remarkable. We are going to miss it when it goes wrong, as it always does.
    I'm not sure it feels like a jobs miracle for those at the bottom getting their council tax bills for next year along with a host of other rises in train fares, postage, clothing and gas bills
    Golden Ages often dont feel golden at the time. Never before have the essentials played such a small part of a persons monthly income. So its taken us a decade to get back to 2007. The pinnacle of British wealth and prosperity. So it has become a struggle to get back to the best it has ever been.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,647
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM
    I know that. I’m talking about the c.10% lift in the Labour vote as a result of her taking over.
    That 10% lift came mainly from squeezing the Greens and NZ First, the governing Nationals comfortably won the popular vote and most seats with 44% to Labour's 37%.

    In the UK Corbyn has already squeezed the Greens and LDs down about as far as they will go and the Tories were also on 44% with ICM yesterday
    Exactly, a 10% lift. Thanks for confirming.
  • May cannot campaign. Corbyn and Momentum can.

    I appreciate Corbyn isn't helping himself on some issues, but Tories need to solve the conundrum. I've detected an element of scapegoating Nick Timothy. Whilst I enjoy a lynching as much as the next man, he was only part of the problem. If Tories ignore the vacuum at the heart of their offering, and don't move on from "he said this in 1983" (which casts Corbyn, wrongly, in the minds of many as a principled, consistent fighter against the Establishment rather than a deeply flawed potential PM) they are in real trouble.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,542

    I think you need to be a little wary of saluting the 'record number of people in employment' statistics. Most people will think it's largely because the population of the UK is rising unsustainably, so naturally there are a record number in work.

    That would be the case with abolsute numbers but percentages are also astonishing. Full Employment.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584

    notme said:

    JonathanD said:

    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018

    It's as close as you can get to a jobs miracle. Truly remarkable. We are going to miss it when it goes wrong, as it always does.
    I'm not sure it feels like a jobs miracle for those at the bottom getting their council tax bills for next year along with a host of other rises in train fares, postage, clothing and gas bills
    Hospital porters getting a rise from £15,000 to £19,000 in the NHS recommended pay settlement all within a 3 year pay deal starting in July together with increased personal tax allowances should be popular
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,217

    Nah. She’s still a crap campaigner.

    She’s a VW Diesel engine in a hybrid world.

    And Corbyn a 2-stroke Trabant.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,647
    notme said:

    notme said:

    JonathanD said:

    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018

    It's as close as you can get to a jobs miracle. Truly remarkable. We are going to miss it when it goes wrong, as it always does.
    I'm not sure it feels like a jobs miracle for those at the bottom getting their council tax bills for next year along with a host of other rises in train fares, postage, clothing and gas bills
    Golden Ages often dont feel golden at the time. Never before have the essentials played such a small part of a persons monthly income. So its taken us a decade to get back to 2007. The pinnacle of British wealth and prosperity. So it has become a struggle to get back to the best it has ever been.
    We have had very low unemployment for a long time, coupled with very low interest rates. Is it a golden age?

    The systemic problems of the U.K. economic remain - low productivity, a trade deficit, and a whole generation of under 45s who feel stiffed.

    I’d happily trade some of those employment numbers for higher productivity and by extension higher wages.
  • Scotland playing brilliantly.

    Windies 135/5.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,217
    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    Let's face it, neither is a particularly appetizing prospect. Put a gun to my head and I'd pick May over Corbyn, but with no enthusiasm.

    I might just say go ahead, pull the trigger...
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 933
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM
    I know that. I’m talking about the c.10% lift in the Labour vote as a result of her taking over.
    That 10% lift came mainly from squeezing the Greens and NZ First, the governing Nationals comfortably won the popular vote and most seats with 44% to Labour's 37%.

    In the UK Corbyn has already squeezed the Greens and LDs down about as far as they will go and the Tories were also on 44% with ICM yesterday
    Yeah I was thinking that, Corbyn has already achieved the boost Jacinda had, probably in similar ways as well. The idea of doing it again on top is ambitious.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584

    May cannot campaign. Corbyn and Momentum can.

    I appreciate Corbyn isn't helping himself on some issues, but Tories need to solve the conundrum. I've detected an element of scapegoating Nick Timothy. Whilst I enjoy a lynching as much as the next man, he was only part of the problem. If Tories ignore the vacuum at the heart of their offering, and don't move on from "he said this in 1983" (which casts Corbyn, wrongly, in the minds of many as a principled, consistent fighter against the Establishment rather than a deeply flawed potential PM) they are in real trouble.

    They do not need what he said in 1983, his behaviour in 2018 will have created the impression, correctly, that he is pro Russia, anti UK and the West, and he is a marxist communist that will not act in the interest of security of the UK
  • And he’s on a hat trick.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,117
    notme said:

    JonathanD said:

    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018

    It's as close as you can get to a jobs miracle. Truly remarkable. We are going to miss it when it goes wrong, as it always does.
    The days when the unemployment figure was top headline on the BBC within seconds of the ONS publishing it are long gone. No more Tory ministers being harangued by some BBC interviewer for their terrible crimes against the country.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    Remind us - how many jobs have been created since George Osborne left the political stage?

    And what were his predictions going forward he made in the run up to leaving the political stage?

    Move over Rogerdamus, there's a new kid after your crown....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM
    I know that. I’m talking about the c.10% lift in the Labour vote as a result of her taking over.
    That 10% lift came mainly from squeezing the Greens and NZ First, the governing Nationals comfortably won the popular vote and most seats with 44% to Labour's 37%.

    In the UK Corbyn has already squeezed the Greens and LDs down about as far as they will go and the Tories were also on 44% with ICM yesterday
    Exactly, a 10% lift. Thanks for confirming.
    Mainly by squeezing other centre left and populist parties, in the UK centre left and populist parties like UKIP have already been squeezed to the bone.

    The Nationals still comfortably won most seats and votes in NZ
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,494
    notme said:

    notme said:

    JonathanD said:

    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018

    It's as close as you can get to a jobs miracle. Truly remarkable. We are going to miss it when it goes wrong, as it always does.
    I'm not sure it feels like a jobs miracle for those at the bottom getting their council tax bills for next year along with a host of other rises in train fares, postage, clothing and gas bills
    Golden Ages often dont feel golden at the time. Never before have the essentials played such a small part of a persons monthly income. So its taken us a decade to get back to 2007. The pinnacle of British wealth and prosperity. So it has become a struggle to get back to the best it has ever been.
    What's the quote...'people don't live in the macro' - or something along those lines.

    The economy is very personal. For example, if you look at the basket of goods used to calculate inflation, hotels and restaurants are weighted more heavily than food. If you're poor, your rate of inflation != the headline rate.

    In my lifetime there have been four recessions (I'd add in the .com bust which affected my sector very badly). Three of them had no negative effect on my personal circumstances, but '81 nearly finished me.

    It's nearly always a golden age for some and ruination for others. It's just the proportions that vary.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,890

    I think you need to be a little wary of saluting the 'record number of people in employment' statistics. Most people will think it's largely because the population of the UK is rising unsustainably, so naturally there are a record number in work.

    One has to look at the proportion of the population in work.
  • HYUFD said:

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM
    She lifted their vote by 11%.

    I don't think overall percentage of the vote comparisons like this are very useful. Yes, Corbyn and May both got high vote shares in the context of recent history. But that was closely linked to UKIP collapse and continued Lib Dem and Green lack of traction - and that's only partially due to things Labour and the Tories have done. As such, it provides a poor basis with comparing with 20 years ago in the UK, or last year in NZ.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,383
    edited March 21
    Mine too. These novelty acts are fine for a while but having to live with one for five years would be too much for most people. For those of us who want a leftish pro EU government we'll have to hope the proverbial bus arrives soon. Jess Phillips would stand a chance against Mrs May and she'd surely slaughter Johnson or Mogg.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    The astonishing thing about the employment numbers is the way in which it has destroyed Labour's ability to scream "Tories = Unemployment!!!". Which has been one it's few effective lines over the decades.

    And yet, still they are polling around 40%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750

    HYUFD said:

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM
    She lifted their vote by 11%.

    I don't think overall percentage of the vote comparisons like this are very useful. Yes, Corbyn and May both got high vote shares in the context of recent history. But that was closely linked to UKIP collapse and continued Lib Dem and Green lack of traction - and that's only partially due to things Labour and the Tories have done. As such, it provides a poor basis with comparing with 20 years ago in the UK, or last year in NZ.
    She lifted it mainly by squeezing the Green vote and NZ First vote, in the UK the Green, LD and UKIP votes have already been squeezed to the bone.

    That is why NZ comparisons are pointless, Ardern had far bigger minor party votes to squeeze than Corbyn or any other Labour leader will have next time
  • Remind us - how many jobs have been created since George Osborne left the political stage?

    And what were his predictions going forward he made in the run up to leaving the political stage?

    Move over Rogerdamus, there's a new kid after your crown....
    He did all the hard work to make this possible.

    He underestimated how Brexit proof he had made the economy.

    The only time in the last 25 years the Tories have won a majority George Osborne’s long term economic plan was central to it.
  • May cannot campaign. Corbyn and Momentum can.

    I appreciate Corbyn isn't helping himself on some issues, but Tories need to solve the conundrum. I've detected an element of scapegoating Nick Timothy. Whilst I enjoy a lynching as much as the next man, he was only part of the problem. If Tories ignore the vacuum at the heart of their offering, and don't move on from "he said this in 1983" (which casts Corbyn, wrongly, in the minds of many as a principled, consistent fighter against the Establishment rather than a deeply flawed potential PM) they are in real trouble.

    They do not need what he said in 1983, his behaviour in 2018 will have created the impression, correctly, that he is pro Russia, anti UK and the West, and he is a marxist communist that will not act in the interest of security of the UK
    Whilst I agree with the underlying point that Corbyn would be a poor PM due to issues like Russia, I think it's a serious error to campaign in quite the way the Tories have on Corbyn himself.

    There is a sizable group of people who simply see the Establishment round on Corbyn and feel he must have a point (the enemy of my enemy is my friend).

    The language of the attacks comes across as "back in the USSR". Didn't resonate as you hoped it would in 2017, and won't in 2022 (or whenever) You've got to get him on the economy, on competence, on divided party.

    I'm purely making an election strategy point here, not defending Corbyn himself on Russia etc.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108

    Remind us - how many jobs have been created since George Osborne left the political stage?

    And what were his predictions going forward he made in the run up to leaving the political stage?

    Move over Rogerdamus, there's a new kid after your crown....
    He did all the hard work to make this possible.

    He underestimated how Brexit proof he had made the economy.

    The only time in the last 25 years the Tories have won a majority George Osborne’s long term economic plan was central to it.
    And the only time in a gazillion years the Government has lost a Referendum, George Osborne's Project Fear was central to it.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 933
    edited March 21
    She lifted their vote by 11%.
    .......................................

    Corbyn did more, although I don't quite know what lifted is in this context Corbyn added about 2.5 Million votes, taking it from roughly 9.3M to 12.8M, which is more than a third of the vote increase on top!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,383
    Does that figure include Big Issue sellers?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM
    She lifted their vote by 11%.

    I don't think overall percentage of the vote comparisons like this are very useful. Yes, Corbyn and May both got high vote shares in the context of recent history. But that was closely linked to UKIP collapse and continued Lib Dem and Green lack of traction - and that's only partially due to things Labour and the Tories have done. As such, it provides a poor basis with comparing with 20 years ago in the UK, or last year in NZ.
    She lifted it mainly by squeezing the Green vote and NZ First vote, in the UK the Green, LD and UKIP votes have already been squeezed to the bone.

    That is why NZ comparisons are pointless, Ardern had far bigger minor party votes to squeeze than Corbyn or any other Labour leader will have next time
    Well, that's true. Corbyn needs Tory to Labour switchers, and he's not making that easy for himself. Although equally, May needs people who voted Corbyn in 2017. Polarised age, perhaps.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 1,261
    notme said:

    I think you need to be a little wary of saluting the 'record number of people in employment' statistics. Most people will think it's largely because the population of the UK is rising unsustainably, so naturally there are a record number in work.

    That would be the case with abolsute numbers but percentages are also astonishing. Full Employment.
    Tax credits working their magic. The flip side is, of course, low productivity.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM
    She lifted their vote by 11%.

    I don't think overall percentage of the vote comparisons like this are very useful. Yes, Corbyn and May both got high vote shares in the context of recent history. But that was closely linked to UKIP collapse and continued Lib Dem and Green lack of traction - and that's only partially due to things Labour and the Tories have done. As such, it provides a poor basis with comparing with 20 years ago in the UK, or last year in NZ.
    She lifted it mainly by squeezing the Green vote and NZ First vote, in the UK the Green, LD and UKIP votes have already been squeezed to the bone.

    That is why NZ comparisons are pointless, Ardern had far bigger minor party votes to squeeze than Corbyn or any other Labour leader will have next time
    Well, that's true. Corbyn needs Tory to Labour switchers, and he's not making that easy for himself. Although equally, May needs people who voted Corbyn in 2017. Polarised age, perhaps.
    No, May needs people to fall out of love with the Corbyn illusion. Them not voting next time will see her home fine and dandy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,840
    edited March 21
    Looking at the Feb borrowing figures am I right in thinking that

    i) These figures are tres disappointing

    ii) The OBR prediction in the spring statement for the 2017/18 PSBR might be right given the general derision
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,117
    Roger said:

    Does that figure include Big Issue sellers?
    The jobs being created look like good quality ones

    "Comparing the estimates for employees and self-employed people for November 2017 to January 2018 with those for a year earlier:
    employees increased by 450,000 to 27.27 million (84.6% of all people in work)
    self-employed people decreased by 22,000 to 4.78 million (14.8% of all people in work)

    The annual increase in the number of people in employment (402,000) was mainly due to more people in full-time employment (377,000)."
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,669

    Remind us - how many jobs have been created since George Osborne left the political stage?

    And what were his predictions going forward he made in the run up to leaving the political stage?

    Move over Rogerdamus, there's a new kid after your crown....
    He did all the hard work to make this possible.

    He underestimated how Brexit proof he had made the economy.

    The only time in the last 25 years the Tories have won a majority George Osborne’s long term economic plan was central to it.
    I can never work out if your comments are a little tongue in cheek or you are a true fanatic. For the sake of balance the alternative view might be that his economic policies made little difference and he lied about the likely immediate impact of a Brexit vote. Unfair to suggest he is a liar? Is your view that he was entirely sincere and honest any more credible?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 933

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM
    She lifted their vote by 11%.

    I don't think overall percentage of the vote comparisons like this are very useful. Yes, Corbyn and May both got high vote shares in the context of recent history. But that was closely linked to UKIP collapse and continued Lib Dem and Green lack of traction - and that's only partially due to things Labour and the Tories have done. As such, it provides a poor basis with comparing with 20 years ago in the UK, or last year in NZ.
    She lifted it mainly by squeezing the Green vote and NZ First vote, in the UK the Green, LD and UKIP votes have already been squeezed to the bone.

    That is why NZ comparisons are pointless, Ardern had far bigger minor party votes to squeeze than Corbyn or any other Labour leader will have next time
    Well, that's true. Corbyn needs Tory to Labour switchers, and he's not making that easy for himself. Although equally, May needs people who voted Corbyn in 2017. Polarised age, perhaps.
    Either party could win from voter fatigue from the others voting coalition, with the Tories in government that would generally favour Labour.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,647
    edited March 21

    Looking at the Feb borrowing figures am I right in thinking that

    i) These figures are tres disappointing

    ii) The OBR prediction in the spring statement for the 2017/18 PSBR might be right given the general derision

    But...but...but...we were told that OBR were down-on-Brexit negative nancies who would get their inevitable comeuppance!

    Let’s see.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    JonathanD said:

    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018

    Those are some quite awesome statistics, and a vindication of the government's approach since 2010. I hope that every Conservative is singing this song from the hills, because the threat to it represents by far the biggest danger of a Corbyn Labour government.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584

    May cannot campaign. Corbyn and Momentum can.

    I appreciate Corbyn isn't helping himself on some issues, but Tories need to solve the conundrum. I've detected an element of scapegoating Nick Timothy. Whilst I enjoy a lynching as much as the next man, he was only part of the problem. If Tories ignore the vacuum at the heart of their offering, and don't move on from "he said this in 1983" (which casts Corbyn, wrongly, in the minds of many as a principled, consistent fighter against the Establishment rather than a deeply flawed potential PM) they are in real trouble.

    They do not need what he said in 1983, his behaviour in 2018 will have created the impression, correctly, that he is pro Russia, anti UK and the West, and he is a marxist communist that will not act in the interest of security of the UK
    Whilst I agree with the underlying point that Corbyn would be a poor PM due to issues like Russia, I think it's a serious error to campaign in quite the way the Tories have on Corbyn himself.

    There is a sizable group of people who simply see the Establishment round on Corbyn and feel he must have a point (the enemy of my enemy is my friend).

    The language of the attacks comes across as "back in the USSR". Didn't resonate as you hoped it would in 2017, and won't in 2022 (or whenever) You've got to get him on the economy, on competence, on divided party.

    I'm purely making an election strategy point here, not defending Corbyn himself on Russia etc.
    Absolutely agree with you. Corbyn will not get a free ride on the economy next time and the Governmrnt have a good message on this.

    The NHS and Social care will be addressed over the next 12 months, the public sector wage freeze will be over, education and student fees are due to be addressed in a year's time following the review

    And of course who will keep us safe will be a topic
  • Remind us - how many jobs have been created since George Osborne left the political stage?

    And what were his predictions going forward he made in the run up to leaving the political stage?

    Move over Rogerdamus, there's a new kid after your crown....
    He did all the hard work to make this possible.

    He underestimated how Brexit proof he had made the economy.

    The only time in the last 25 years the Tories have won a majority George Osborne’s long term economic plan was central to it.
    I can never work out if your comments are a little tongue in cheek or you are a true fanatic. For the sake of balance the alternative view might be that his economic policies made little difference and he lied about the likely immediate impact of a Brexit vote. Unfair to suggest he is a liar? Is your view that he was entirely sincere and honest any more credible?
    I’m a true believer in the Cameroon/Osborne project.

    I’m also fighting the Corbynite wing of the Tory party that think the Tories won in 2010/2015 in spite of Cameron/Osborne not because of them.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,669
    Sean_F said:

    I think you need to be a little wary of saluting the 'record number of people in employment' statistics. Most people will think it's largely because the population of the UK is rising unsustainably, so naturally there are a record number in work.

    One has to look at the proportion of the population in work.
    Working age population?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    edited March 21
    Looks as if Farage highjacking the fishing protests on the Thames has backfired as of course conservative mps are not allowed to associate themelves, quite rightly, with him.

    Apparently the boat terminated its protest

    Farage is toxic
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819
    JonathanD said:

    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018

    The jobs miracle continues. It is very strange we don't see it in the growth figures.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,117
    edited March 21

    Looking at the Feb borrowing figures am I right in thinking that

    i) These figures are tres disappointing

    ii) The OBR prediction in the spring statement for the 2017/18 PSBR might be right given the general derision


    Yep, a 6% fall in Self Assessment income is not that healthy a sign.


    "In January and February 2018, the government raised £24.6 billion in combined Self-assessed Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax receipts (£18.4 billion in January and £6.2 billion in February). In the same period in 2017, the
    government raised £26.1 billion (£19.3 billion in January and £6.8 billion in February)."

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/february2018
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,481

    Remind us - how many jobs have been created since George Osborne left the political stage?

    And what were his predictions going forward he made in the run up to leaving the political stage?

    Move over Rogerdamus, there's a new kid after your crown....
    He did all the hard work to make this possible.

    He underestimated how Brexit proof he had made the economy.

    The only time in the last 25 years the Tories have won a majority George Osborne’s long term economic plan was central to it.
    I can never work out if your comments are a little tongue in cheek or you are a true fanatic. For the sake of balance the alternative view might be that his economic policies made little difference and he lied about the likely immediate impact of a Brexit vote. Unfair to suggest he is a liar? Is your view that he was entirely sincere and honest any more credible?
    I’m a true believer in the Cameroon/Osborne project.

    I’m also fighting the Corbynite wing of the Tory party that think the Tories won in 2010/2015 in spite of Cameron/Osborne not because of them.
    They won because of Cameron and in spite of Osborne.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,395
    Blimey, the sweaties are doing well against the windies. Could it possibly be...
  • Because I’m doing a Dunkirk themed thread on Sunday and I’ve still got The Darkest Hour in my head.

    It was all lies that Halifax and Chamberlain were looking to no confidence Churchill in May/June 1940 wasn’t it?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,481

    May cannot campaign. Corbyn and Momentum can.

    I appreciate Corbyn isn't helping himself on some issues, but Tories need to solve the conundrum. I've detected an element of scapegoating Nick Timothy. Whilst I enjoy a lynching as much as the next man, he was only part of the problem. If Tories ignore the vacuum at the heart of their offering, and don't move on from "he said this in 1983" (which casts Corbyn, wrongly, in the minds of many as a principled, consistent fighter against the Establishment rather than a deeply flawed potential PM) they are in real trouble.

    They do not need what he said in 1983, his behaviour in 2018 will have created the impression, correctly, that he is pro Russia, anti UK and the West, and he is a marxist communist that will not act in the interest of security of the UK
    Whilst I agree with the underlying point that Corbyn would be a poor PM due to issues like Russia, I think it's a serious error to campaign in quite the way the Tories have on Corbyn himself.

    There is a sizable group of people who simply see the Establishment round on Corbyn and feel he must have a point (the enemy of my enemy is my friend).

    The language of the attacks comes across as "back in the USSR". Didn't resonate as you hoped it would in 2017, and won't in 2022 (or whenever) You've got to get him on the economy, on competence, on divided party.

    I'm purely making an election strategy point here, not defending Corbyn himself on Russia etc.
    Absolutely agree with you. Corbyn will not get a free ride on the economy next time and the Governmrnt have a good message on this.

    The NHS and Social care will be addressed over the next 12 months, the public sector wage freeze will be over, education and student fees are due to be addressed in a year's time following the review

    And of course who will keep us safe will be a topic
    There will also be another five year cohort of voters who have given up hope of a good sized home of their own. The Tories recognise the problem and are making difficult decisions to address it, but not big enough ones to address the scale of the problem.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,526
    Does anyone now seriously think that Theresa won't lead the Tories at the next GE? The 2017 fiasco is rapidly fading from memory, the consensus is that Jezza has blown it over Russia and the Brexit settlement couldn't be more wonderful. Theresa is mistress of all she surveys. I don't know how long it will be before Theresa stops being the British prime minister - ten, fifteen, twenty years? - but when that moment happens it will be entirely of her choosing.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,151

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’m far from convinced the next election will see either May or Corbyn leading their respective parties.

    Great quote from Red Box this morning:
    A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”

    May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.

    On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM
    She lifted their vote by 11%.

    I don't think overall percentage of the vote comparisons like this are very useful. Yes, Corbyn and May both got high vote shares in the context of recent history. But that was closely linked to UKIP collapse and continued Lib Dem and Green lack of traction - and that's only partially due to things Labour and the Tories have done. As such, it provides a poor basis with comparing with 20 years ago in the UK, or last year in NZ.
    She lifted it mainly by squeezing the Green vote and NZ First vote, in the UK the Green, LD and UKIP votes have already been squeezed to the bone.

    That is why NZ comparisons are pointless, Ardern had far bigger minor party votes to squeeze than Corbyn or any other Labour leader will have next time
    Well, that's true. Corbyn needs Tory to Labour switchers, and he's not making that easy for himself. Although equally, May needs people who voted Corbyn in 2017. Polarised age, perhaps.
    No, May needs people to fall out of love with the Corbyn illusion. Them not voting next time will see her home fine and dandy.
    It depends how Tory voters view her total capitulation on Brexit later this year. That will be a much bigger story than Corbyn and Russia which will have faded by then.

    I agree the key is differential turnout not vote switching. I think it is more likely that Tory voters stay at home (or search for UKIP!) because of Brexit than Labour voters stay at home because of Corbyn/Russia.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819

    Looking at the Feb borrowing figures am I right in thinking that

    i) These figures are tres disappointing

    ii) The OBR prediction in the spring statement for the 2017/18 PSBR might be right given the general derision

    Yes, and yes. I was one of those who expressed derision but I was wrong. I think, looking back, 31st January last year was a Sunday so a lot of the tax receipts spilled into the first day of February. This year it was mid week and Feb 18 is £5bn worse off as a result. The £45bn is looking a more reasonable estimate now. Disappointing.

    The other place we don't really see the jobs miracle is in government spending. We have much lower unemployment but no lower benefits, presumably because of the comparative generosity of inwork benefits.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,647

    Does anyone now seriously think that Theresa won't lead the Tories at the next GE? The 2017 fiasco is rapidly fading from memory, the consensus is that Jezza has blown it over Russia and the Brexit settlement couldn't be more wonderful. Theresa is mistress of all she surveys. I don't know how long it will be before Theresa stops being the British prime minister - ten, fifteen, twenty years? - but when that moment happens it will be entirely of her choosing.

    Not a chance. Even if she wanted to, the media and Young Turks won’t let her.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,986

    notme said:

    notme said:

    JonathanD said:

    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018

    It's as close as you can get to a jobs miracle. Truly remarkable. We are going to miss it when it goes wrong, as it always does.
    I'm not sure it feels like a jobs miracle for those at the bottom getting their council tax bills for next year along with a host of other rises in train fares, postage, clothing and gas bills
    Golden Ages often dont feel golden at the time. Never before have the essentials played such a small part of a persons monthly income. So its taken us a decade to get back to 2007. The pinnacle of British wealth and prosperity. So it has become a struggle to get back to the best it has ever been.
    We have had very low unemployment for a long time, coupled with very low interest rates. Is it a golden age?

    The systemic problems of the U.K. economic remain - low productivity, a trade deficit, and a whole generation of under 45s who feel stiffed.

    I’d happily trade some of those employment numbers for higher productivity and by extension higher wages.
    This chart accounts for why there is no feelgood factor despite the employment figures. More people are employed, but they are paid less in real terms. Despite FOM other countries in the EU, apart from Greece, have done much better, and not always with higher unemployment as the trade off.

  • Anorak said:

    Blimey, the sweaties are doing well against the windies. Could it possibly be...

    Well they lost to Afghanistan the other day so they could lose to Scotland too.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,481

    Does anyone now seriously think that Theresa won't lead the Tories at the next GE? The 2017 fiasco is rapidly fading from memory, the consensus is that Jezza has blown it over Russia and the Brexit settlement couldn't be more wonderful. Theresa is mistress of all she surveys. I don't know how long it will be before Theresa stops being the British prime minister - ten, fifteen, twenty years? - but when that moment happens it will be entirely of her choosing.

    I'm not sure if this is satire or not, but May will still be hurt among centre and centre-right leaners that oppose Brexit. Especially as there will inevitably be teething troubles. They should replace her once it is done, about a year before the election.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,395
    edited March 21
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM

    She lifted their vote by 11%.

    I don't think overall percentage of the vote comparisons like this are very useful. Yes, Corbyn and May both got high vote shares in the context of recent history. But that was closely linked to UKIP collapse and continued Lib Dem and Green lack of traction - and that's only partially due to things Labour and the Tories have done. As such, it provides a poor basis with comparing with 20 years ago in the UK, or last year in NZ.
    She lifted it mainly by squeezing the Green vote and NZ First vote, in the UK the Green, LD and UKIP votes have already been squeezed to the bone.

    That is why NZ comparisons are pointless, Ardern had far bigger minor party votes to squeeze than Corbyn or any other Labour leader will have next time
    Well, that's true. Corbyn needs Tory to Labour switchers, and he's not making that easy for himself. Although equally, May needs people who voted Corbyn in 2017. Polarised age, perhaps.
    No, May needs people to fall out of love with the Corbyn illusion. Them not voting next time will see her home fine and dandy.
    It depends how Tory voters view her total capitulation on Brexit later this year. That will be a much bigger story than Corbyn and Russia which will have faded by then.

    I agree the key is differential turnout not vote switching. I think it is more likely that Tory voters stay at home (or search for UKIP!) because of Brexit than Labour voters stay at home because of Corbyn/Russia.
    There are also a lot right-leaning voters who despair at Brexit. If it's a pillow-soft landing it will firm up their vote. Currently they're being retained solely by the presence of Corbyn.

    I can also see - though happy to be corrected - folk like TSE & Gardenwalker being happy to vote for a centrist Blairite Labour government over a frothing Tory (e.g. JRM). I'd certainly be happy to switch my allegiance in that case.

    [All in all there are too many factions at work in both main parties for any of this to be more than a naval-gazing exercise.]
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    JonathanD said:

    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018

    It's as close as you can get to a jobs miracle. Truly remarkable. We are going to miss it when it goes wrong, as it always does.
    I'm not sure it feels like a jobs miracle for those at the bottom getting their council tax bills for next year along with a host of other rises in train fares, postage, clothing and gas bills
    Golden Ages often dont feel golden at the time. Never before have the essentials played such a small part of a persons monthly income. So its taken us a decade to get back to 2007. The pinnacle of British wealth and prosperity. So it has become a struggle to get back to the best it has ever been.
    We have had very low unemployment for a long time, coupled with very low interest rates. Is it a golden age?

    The systemic problems of the U.K. economic remain - low productivity, a trade deficit, and a whole generation of under 45s who feel stiffed.

    I’d happily trade some of those employment numbers for higher productivity and by extension higher wages.
    This chart accounts for why there is no feelgood factor despite the employment figures. More people are employed, but they are paid less in real terms. Despite FOM other countries in the EU, apart from Greece, have done much better, and not always with higher unemployment as the trade off.

    The depth of the hole Labour dug.....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,647
    edited March 21
    Foxy said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    JonathanD said:

    There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

    The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

    There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

    The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

    Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018

    It's as close as you can get to a jobs miracle. Truly remarkable. We are going to miss it when it goes wrong, as it always does.
    I'm not sure it feels like a jobs miracle for those at the bottom getting their council tax bills for next year along with a host of other rises in train fares, postage, clothing and gas bills
    Golden Ages often dont feel golden at the time. Never before have the essentials played such a small part of a persons monthly income. So its taken us a decade to get back to 2007. The pinnacle of British wealth and prosperity. So it has become a struggle to get back to the best it has ever been.
    We have had very low unemployment for a long time, coupled with very low interest rates. Is it a golden age?

    The systemic problems of the U.K. economic remain - low productivity, a trade deficit, and a whole generation of under 45s who feel stiffed.

    I’d happily trade some of those employment numbers for higher productivity and by extension higher wages.
    Ten years of wage repression, and other four or five to come, according to forecasts and indeed thanks to Brexit.

    Never mind Singapore of the North Atlantic, it’s the Sick Man of Europe redux - except the pain is felt largely by the youngest, the poorest, and the non-metropolitan.
  • Anorak said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM

    She lifted their vote by 11%.

    I don't think overall percentage of the vote comparisons like this are very useful. Yes, Corbyn and May both got high vote shares in the context of recent history. But that was closely linked to UKIP collapse and continued Lib Dem and Green lack of traction - and that's only partially due to things Labour and the Tories have done. As such, it provides a poor basis with comparing with 20 years ago in the UK, or last year in NZ.
    She lifted it mainly by squeezing the Green vote and NZ First vote, in the UK the Green, LD and UKIP votes have already been squeezed to the bone.

    That is why NZ comparisons are pointless, Ardern had far bigger minor party votes to squeeze than Corbyn or any other Labour leader will have next time
    Well, that's true. Corbyn needs Tory to Labour switchers, and he's not making that easy for himself. Although equally, May needs people who voted Corbyn in 2017. Polarised age, perhaps.
    No, May needs people to fall out of love with the Corbyn illusion. Them not voting next time will see her home fine and dandy.
    It depends how Tory voters view her total capitulation on Brexit later this year. That will be a much bigger story than Corbyn and Russia which will have faded by then.

    I agree the key is differential turnout not vote switching. I think it is more likely that Tory voters stay at home (or search for UKIP!) because of Brexit than Labour voters stay at home because of Corbyn/Russia.
    There are also a lot right-leaning voters who despair at Brexit. If it's a pillow-soft landing it will firm up their vote. Currently they're being retained by the presence of Corbyn.

    I can also see - though happy to be corrected - folk like TSE & Gardenwalker being happy to vote for a centrist Blairite Labour government over a frothing Tory (e.g. JRM). I'd certainly be happy to switch my allegiance in that case.

    [All in all there are too many factions at work in both main parties for any of this to be more than a naval-gazing exercise.]
    I’d probably abstain in those circumstances.

    It would depend on the seat/Tory candidate.

    If Tissue Price was the Tory candidate in Sheffield Hallam not only would I vote for him I’d be campaigning 24/7 for him.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,380

    Does anyone now seriously think that Theresa won't lead the Tories at the next GE? The 2017 fiasco is rapidly fading from memory, the consensus is that Jezza has blown it over Russia and the Brexit settlement couldn't be more wonderful. Theresa is mistress of all she surveys. I don't know how long it will be before Theresa stops being the British prime minister - ten, fifteen, twenty years? - but when that moment happens it will be entirely of her choosing.

    But, but, George Osborne said that May was a dead woman walking, and George Osborne is always right.
  • DavidL said:

    Looking at the Feb borrowing figures am I right in thinking that

    i) These figures are tres disappointing

    ii) The OBR prediction in the spring statement for the 2017/18 PSBR might be right given the general derision

    Yes, and yes. I was one of those who expressed derision but I was wrong. I think, looking back, 31st January last year was a Sunday so a lot of the tax receipts spilled into the first day of February. This year it was mid week and Feb 18 is £5bn worse off as a result. The £45bn is looking a more reasonable estimate now. Disappointing.

    The other place we don't really see the jobs miracle is in government spending. We have much lower unemployment but no lower benefits, presumably because of the comparative generosity of inwork benefits.
    Nah. Last year 31st of January was a Tuesday, this year it was a Wednesday.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,975

    Does anyone now seriously think that Theresa won't lead the Tories at the next GE? The 2017 fiasco is rapidly fading from memory, the consensus is that Jezza has blown it over Russia and the Brexit settlement couldn't be more wonderful. Theresa is mistress of all she surveys. I don't know how long it will be before Theresa stops being the British prime minister - ten, fifteen, twenty years? - but when that moment happens it will be entirely of her choosing.

    Let's see what the consensus is after the May local elections.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,151
    Anorak said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jacinda Ardern got a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn, she just cobbled together deals with minor parties to become PM

    She lifted their vote by 11%.
    She lifted it mainly by squeezing the Green vote and NZ First vote, in the UK the Green, LD and UKIP votes have already been squeezed to the bone.

    That is why NZ comparisons are pointless, Ardern had far bigger minor party votes to squeeze than Corbyn or any other Labour leader will have next time
    Well, that's true. Corbyn needs Tory to Labour switchers, and he's not making that easy for himself. Although equally, May needs people who voted Corbyn in 2017. Polarised age, perhaps.
    No, May needs people to fall out of love with the Corbyn illusion. Them not voting next time will see her home fine and dandy.
    It depends how Tory voters view her total capitulation on Brexit later this year. That will be a much bigger story than Corbyn and Russia which will have faded by then.

    I agree the key is differential turnout not vote switching. I think it is more likely that Tory voters stay at home (or search for UKIP!) because of Brexit than Labour voters stay at home because of Corbyn/Russia.
    There are also a lot right-leaning voters who despair at Brexit. If it's a pillow-soft landing it will firm up their vote. Currently they're being retained by the presence of Corbyn.

    I can also see - though happy to be corrected - folk like TSE & Gardenwalker being happy to vote for a centrist Blairite Labour government over a frothing Tory (e.g. JRM). I'd certainly be happy to switch my allegiance in that case.

    [All in all there are too many factions at work in both main parties for any of this to be more than a naval-gazing exercise.]
    There are twice as many Leavers than Remainers among Tory supporters so it is difficult to say what the impact of a "pillow-soft" Brexit would be. [I do like that adjective though I suspect there would still be a few lumps].

    I agree there are multiple scenarios and it is hard to predict. Perhaps in a toss-up situation like this the best strategy is to lay the favourite?
  • Windies putting up the most inept performance against a Scottish side since the Calcutta/Kolkata cup match.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 885

    Can I ask why people camp in Calais to come to the UK when wages in France are so much better?
This discussion has been closed.