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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    De La Rue sounds suspiciously French anyway. No wonder the Leavers want nothing to do with it.

    From the Bailiwick of Guernsey.

    Lest we forget they collaborated with the Germans during the World War II, so definitely showing off their French heritage.
    How so?
    They were occupied by the Germans and didn't kick them out.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_occupation_of_the_Channel_Islands#Allegations_of_collaboration
    They were “demilitarised” by the British and told not to resist. Only the British didn’t tell the Germans who then proceeded to bomb the place. Not many places you can hide on a 24 sq mile island for a “resistance”... And they’re very clear - it’s “Germans” not “Nazis” as we're supposed to say these days..
    So were the French, and they still formed the Maquis.

    Let that sink in, the French put up more resistance, truly shameful if you're a Channel Islander.
    Area of France: 248,573 sq miles
    Area of Guernsey 24 sq miles.

    Let that sink in.
    There’s a film out next month about Guernsey’s collaboration during WWII.

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1289403/
    It was an entertaining book.
  • Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    I can see it happening.

    The Labour ground game looks good too.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    DavidL said:

    Mr. Floater, they've replaced stop-and-search by police with stop-and-stab by criminals.

    At what point does the risk of being attacked and not having a weapon to defend yourself outweigh the risk of a significant prison sentence from simply carrying the knife? When the police stop looking for knives of course.
    I was very disappointed in Dave when he resiled from his position of planning to give jail sentences to people caught carrying knives.

    Does resiled mean welshed?
    Racist!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    Yes. But the real surprise was how Burnham won the borough in the Mayoral election with 55%. It went relatively unnoticed due to dramatic Conservative wins elsewhere.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_mayoral_election,_2017
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    Your spoiling their gloating which is unseemly enough to give a true picture of their worth and therefore valuable no matter how distasteful.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/976727440893599744?s=20
    How about because exisiting EU rules required the Govt. to tender to EU companies. Whereas when we Brexit.....
    The De La Rue CEO said that Crance does not allow its passports to be manufactured outside of France.
    If Danone yogurt is a security issue ofr France then the production of passports certainly is.

    As I recently posted, several EU countries like France have a mistaken belief that protectionism is good for their country.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited March 2018

    De La Rue sounds suspiciously French anyway. No wonder the Leavers want nothing to do with it.

    From the Bailiwick of Guernsey.

    Lest we forget they collaborated with the Germans during the World War II, so definitely showing off their French heritage.
    How so?
    They were occupied by the Germans and didn't kick them out.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_occupation_of_the_Channel_Islands#Allegations_of_collaboration
    They were “demilitarised” by the British and told not to resist. Only the British didn’t tell the Germans who then proceeded to bomb the place. Not many places you can hide on a 24 sq mile island for a “resistance”... And they’re very clear - it’s “Germans” not “Nazis” as we're supposed to say these days..
    So were the French, and they still formed the Maquis.

    Let that sink in, the French put up more resistance, truly shameful if you're a Channel Islander.
    Area of France: 248,573 sq miles
    Area of Guernsey 24 sq miles.

    Let that sink in.
    There’s a film out next month about Guernsey’s collaboration during WWII.

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1289403/
    If there had been one German troop for every three civilians in France (as there was in the CI) I doubt there would have been much of a resistance there either....

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/nov/18/guernsey-files-islanders-nazi-occupation
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Is the next celebrity politician about to emerge? I've often thought he could be a dangerous figure and nobody handles television better.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RWX4nk1xF8

    Disclaimer - this is RT and I am a little reluctant to give them credibility.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited March 2018

    Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    I can see it happening.

    The Labour ground game looks good too.
    I'm on - I assume enough Tories are up for re-election for Labour to gain the council outright?
  • The ONS have released the latest electorate figures for constituencies in the UK based on Dec 17 electorates. If the boundary commissions were to start the review again based on 600 MPs with an average of 77k electors, the changes at the national level would be as follows:

    England increases from 501 to 503 MPs vs. the current review
    Scotland decreases from 53 to 51 MPs
    Wales increases from 29 to 30 MPs
    NI decreases from 17 to 16 MPs

    Looking at England the 10 constituencies with the most electors are:

    Isle of Wight 109,938 - Con
    Milton Keynes South 92,011 - Con
    North West Cambridgeshire 91,982 - Con
    West Ham 90,695 - Lab
    Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,229 - Con
    Milton Keynes North 88,630 - Con
    Manchester Central 88,488 - Lab
    South Northamptonshire 87,516 - Con
    Bury St Edmunds 87,193 - Con
    North East Bedfordshire 87,143 - Con

    The 10 with the fewest electors are:

    Wolverhampton South West 59,080 - Lab
    Newcastle upon Tyne East 58,877 - Lab
    Northampton North 58,324 - Con
    Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,860 - Con
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 57,802 - Lab
    Wirral South 56,931 - Lab
    Blackpool South 56,850 - Lab
    Preston 55,937 - Lab
    Wirral West 55,084 - Lab
    Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,420 - Lab

    In Wales, Cardiff S and Vale of Glamorgan are the only constituencies near the quota with Arfon only having 40k electors

    In Scotland, The top 5 with the most electors are:

    Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,694 - SNP
    Falkirk 82,919 - SNP
    Livingston 80,478 - SNP
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 79,214 - SNP
    Gordon 78,532 - Con

    In Scotland, The bottom 5 with the fewest electors are:

    Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,300 - SNP
    Glasgow North 52,931 - SNP
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,584 - LD
    Orkney and Shetland 33,975 - LD
    Na h-Eileanan an Iar 21,227 - SNP

    The 2 Isles constituencies are protected in the legislation

    In NI, Upper Bann is the largest with 80k. All the Belfast seats are undersized, which will eventually increase the likelihood of a 3 seat Berlfast (to the detriment of the DUP). It would probably be in the DUP's interest to vote for the current review as a new review would likely be worse for them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Is the next celebrity politician about to emerge? I've often thought he could be a dangerous figure and nobody handles television better.

    Just in time for a national game of deal or no deal.


  • http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1289403/

    If there had been one German troop for every three civilians in France (as there was in the CI) I doubt there would have been much of a resistance there either....

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/nov/18/guernsey-files-islanders-nazi-occupation

    There were approximately 40,000 German troops in the Channel Islands during the occupation and a total of approx 66,000 civilians. Not sure what TSE would have done but I'm sure he would have been at the front of the assaults on the bunkers and defences that make Normandy look like a mere walk in the park...... But for me those numbers and seeing the defences every day as I do it's pretty clear that this was a case where resistance was futile!
  • tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    I can see it happening.

    The Labour ground game looks good too.
    I'm on - I assume enough Tories are up for re-election for Labour to gain the council outright?
    The Tories have 11 seats up for re-election.

    Labour only need to gain six to win a majority.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    I can see it happening.

    The Labour ground game looks good too.
    I'm on - I assume enough Tories are up for re-election for Labour to gain the council outright?
    Labour would have to win 15 out of the 21 seats being contested, a net gain of six, to take control. The bookies are right to price NOC as the likeliest outcome.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    If there had been one German troop for every three civilians in France (as there was in the CI) I doubt there would have been much of a resistance there either....

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/nov/18/guernsey-files-islanders-nazi-occupation

    There were approximately 40,000 German troops in the Channel Islands during the occupation and a total of approx 66,000 civilians. Not sure what TSE would have done but I'm sure he would have been at the front of the assaults on the bunkers and defences that make Normandy look like a mere walk in the park...... But for me those numbers and seeing the defences every day as I do it's pretty clear that this was a case where resistance was futile!

    Alderney had three concentration camps, so that put the number of troops there out of proportion.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited March 2018



    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1289403/

    If there had been one German troop for every three civilians in France (as there was in the CI) I doubt there would have been much of a resistance there either....

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/nov/18/guernsey-files-islanders-nazi-occupation

    There were approximately 40,000 German troops in the Channel Islands during the occupation and a total of approx 66,000 civilians. Not sure what TSE would have done but I'm sure he would have been at the front of the assaults on the bunkers and defences that make Normandy look like a mere walk in the park...... But for me those numbers and seeing the defences every day as I do it's pretty clear that this was a case where resistance was futile!

    You are the Borg
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    @TheScreamingEagles and @Sean_F - thank you.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    I can see it happening.

    The Labour ground game looks good too.
    I'm on - I assume enough Tories are up for re-election for Labour to gain the council outright?
    The Tories have 11 seats up for re-election.

    Labour only need to gain six to win a majority.
    Six is a tall order. 7 of the 11 had substantial Conservative majorities in 2014. .
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Even though it wasn’t filmed there, Guernsey tourism are making the most of the upcoming film:

    https://movie.visitguernsey.com
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    I can see it happening.

    The Labour ground game looks good too.
    I'm on - I assume enough Tories are up for re-election for Labour to gain the council outright?
    The Tories have 11 seats up for re-election.

    Labour only need to gain six to win a majority.
    Six is a tall order. 7 of the 11 had substantial Conservative majorities in 2014. .
    I was allowed £7.50 on at 11-1 which I think is fair but this is not easy for Labour..

    Altrincham from 3rd with an 11.7% swing from the previous election is the toughest ward to crack but there is a substantial green vote there to munch on for Labour.
    Ashton Upon Mersey is also difficult as is Daveyhulme West.

    If Labour gets those 3, they'll more than likely have overall control.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I worked out that there'd be an £120 mn saving last night.

    Though I thought it was passport consumers not taxpayers that footed the bill for this so not sure how it works.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    SLAB Councillor

    "The dossier sent to Leonard, seen by the Record, also alleges that he bizarrely called a young Muslim boy “Jew boy” because he knew he would be circumcised. "

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/labour-racism-row-councillor-accused-12228722
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Six dead in chemical plant explosion in the Czech Republic:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43497063
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    I worked out that there'd be an £120 mn saving last night.

    Though I thought it was passport consumers not taxpayers that footed the bill for this so not sure how it works.
    A lot of special pleading from De La Rue....smarting from submitting an uncompetitive bid...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited March 2018
    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    I can see it happening.

    The Labour ground game looks good too.
    I'm on - I assume enough Tories are up for re-election for Labour to gain the council outright?
    The Tories have 11 seats up for re-election.

    Labour only need to gain six to win a majority.
    Six is a tall order. 7 of the 11 had substantial Conservative majorities in 2014. .
    I expect Labour will just fall short of a majority but at 12/1/ and 11/1 it is worth a punt.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    The boss of De La Rue was on the box this morning. Seemed like a well balanced sensible chap, and didn’t, unless I missed it, expect to have to lay anyone off in Gateshead. In business he said, you win some, you lose some.
    Your spoiling their gloating which is unseemly enough to give a true picture of their worth and therefore valuable no matter how distasteful.
    Can I have a translation of this comment please David.
    @Scott_P and others this morning seemed to think that the fact that some people might lose their jobs in Gateshead which had the temerity to vote leave by 57% was a good thing because leavers deserve it, or some such nonsense. Even putting aside the fact that it was EU regulations that caused this it struck me as being in very poor taste (and, thankfully, probably untrue).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    Your spoiling their gloating which is unseemly enough to give a true picture of their worth and therefore valuable no matter how distasteful.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/976727440893599744?s=20
    How about because exisiting EU rules required the Govt. to tender to EU companies. Whereas when we Brexit.....
    The De La Rue CEO said that Crance does not allow its passports to be manufactured outside of France.
    If Danone yogurt is a security issue ofr France then the production of passports certainly is.

    As I recently posted, several EU countries like France have a mistaken belief that protectionism is good for their country.
    As does America, and as (to a limited extent) should we.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    @Scott_P and others this morning seemed to think that the fact that some people might lose their jobs in Gateshead which had the temerity to vote leave by 57% was a good thing

    In the words of a Brexiteer, Fuck off. Just fuck off.

    I never suggested people losing jobs was a good thing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    The boss of De La Rue was on the box this morning. Seemed like a well balanced sensible chap, and didn’t, unless I missed it, expect to have to lay anyone off in Gateshead. In business he said, you win some, you lose some.
    Your spoiling their gloating which is unseemly enough to give a true picture of their worth and therefore valuable no matter how distasteful.
    Can I have a translation of this comment please David.
    @Scott_P and others this morning seemed to think that the fact that some people might lose their jobs in Gateshead which had the temerity to vote leave by 57% was a good thing because leavers deserve it, or some such nonsense. Even putting aside the fact that it was EU regulations that caused this it struck me as being in very poor taste (and, thankfully, probably untrue).
    Remainers struggling to find bad news....not clear why we should spend an extra £120million on an uncompetitive bid...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Remainers struggling to find bad news....not clear why we should spend an extra £120million on an uncompetitive bid...

    It was the cheif of De La Rue who wants the PM to explain that, not me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2018
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    Yes. But the real surprise was how Burnham won the borough in the Mayoral election with 55%. It went relatively unnoticed due to dramatic Conservative wins elsewhere.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_mayoral_election,_2017
    Graham Brady got 51% at the general election in Altrincham and Sale West and the Labour candidate 38%. Labour got 68% in Stretford and Urmston and the Tories 28% and 62% in Wythenshaw and Sale East and the Tories 30%
  • Didn’t someone warn us the other day that bigotry against Catholics was still pretty strong in Northern Ireland.

    https://twitter.com/news_letter/status/976793165012328448?s=21
  • The ONS have also released updated local electorate figures. There have been some quite big changes in some of the London boroughs in the last year:

    Council Change in electors % change
    Tower Hamlets 20289 12.0%
    Barnet 17907 7.5%
    Kensington and Chelsea 5752 6.2%
    Redbridge 9873 4.9%
    Southwark 8836 4.3%
    Hackney 6379 3.8%
    Wandsworth 6148 2.7%
    Brent 5906 2.7%
    Harrow 4843 2.7%
    Haringey 4511 2.7%
    Lewisham 4973 2.6%
    Havering 4618 2.5%
    Barking and Dagenham 2859 2.2%
    Waltham Forest 3858 2.1%
    Sutton 2332 1.6%
    Richmond upon Thames 2189 1.6%
    Hounslow 2930 1.6%
    Lambeth 3123 1.4%
    Enfield 2810 1.3%
    Greenwich 1984 1.1%
    Westminster 1342 1.0%
    Hammersmith and Fulham 1088 0.9%
    Bexley 1385 0.8%
    Bromley 1592 0.7%
    City of London 16 0.2%
    Hillingdon 452 0.2%
    Merton 24 0.0%
    Kingston upon Thames -148 -0.1%
    Newham -1193 -0.6%
    Croydon -3080 -1.1%
    Camden -2137 -1.4%
    Islington -2192 -1.4%
    Ealing -6055 -2.5%

    I'm not sure that increase in K&C will necessarily be hopeful to the Cons. Harder to say who the change in Barnet will benefit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2018

    Didn’t someone warn us the other day that bigotry against Catholics was still pretty strong in Northern Ireland.

    https://twitter.com/news_letter/status/976793165012328448?s=21

    A bit less hostile to the Pope than being called the Antichrist a la Paisley
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    Yes. But the real surprise was how Burnham won the borough in the Mayoral election with 55%. It went relatively unnoticed due to dramatic Conservative wins elsewhere.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_mayoral_election,_2017
    Graham Brady got 51% at the general election in Altrincham and Sale West and the Labour candidate 38%. Labour got 68% in Stretford and Urmston and the Tories 28% and 62% in Wythenshaw and Sale East and the Tories 30%
    The Altrincham and Sale West result implies the Tories ~5% ahead in the key Altrincham ward (For the purposes of the Labour bet) and almost level in Ashton Upon Mersey.
    I expect the result will end up NOC but the implied range for the bet is far too narrow at 8-11 so Labour control it is...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2018

    The ONS have also released updated local electorate figures. There have been some quite big changes in some of the London boroughs in the last year:

    Council Change in electors % change
    Tower Hamlets 20289 12.0%
    Barnet 17907 7.5%
    Kensington and Chelsea 5752 6.2%
    Redbridge 9873 4.9%
    Southwark 8836 4.3%
    Hackney 6379 3.8%
    Wandsworth 6148 2.7%
    Brent 5906 2.7%
    Harrow 4843 2.7%
    Haringey 4511 2.7%
    Lewisham 4973 2.6%
    Havering 4618 2.5%
    Barking and Dagenham 2859 2.2%
    Waltham Forest 3858 2.1%
    Sutton 2332 1.6%
    Richmond upon Thames 2189 1.6%
    Hounslow 2930 1.6%
    Lambeth 3123 1.4%
    Enfield 2810 1.3%
    Greenwich 1984 1.1%
    Westminster 1342 1.0%
    Hammersmith and Fulham 1088 0.9%
    Bexley 1385 0.8%
    Bromley 1592 0.7%
    City of London 16 0.2%
    Hillingdon 452 0.2%
    Merton 24 0.0%
    Kingston upon Thames -148 -0.1%
    Newham -1193 -0.6%
    Croydon -3080 -1.1%
    Camden -2137 -1.4%
    Islington -2192 -1.4%
    Ealing -6055 -2.5%

    I'm not sure that increase in K&C will necessarily be hopeful to the Cons. Harder to say who the change in Barnet will benefit.

    It depends in which wards, K & C is divided between very wealthy rock solid Tory wards and poor Labour wards with lots of social housing with little in between
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    The ONS have also released updated local electorate figures. There have been some quite big changes in some of the London boroughs in the last year:

    Council Change in electors % change
    Tower Hamlets 20289 12.0%
    Barnet 17907 7.5%
    Kensington and Chelsea 5752 6.2%
    Redbridge 9873 4.9%
    Southwark 8836 4.3%
    Hackney 6379 3.8%
    Wandsworth 6148 2.7%
    Brent 5906 2.7%
    Harrow 4843 2.7%
    Haringey 4511 2.7%
    Lewisham 4973 2.6%
    Havering 4618 2.5%
    Barking and Dagenham 2859 2.2%
    Waltham Forest 3858 2.1%
    Sutton 2332 1.6%
    Richmond upon Thames 2189 1.6%
    Hounslow 2930 1.6%
    Lambeth 3123 1.4%
    Enfield 2810 1.3%
    Greenwich 1984 1.1%
    Westminster 1342 1.0%
    Hammersmith and Fulham 1088 0.9%
    Bexley 1385 0.8%
    Bromley 1592 0.7%
    City of London 16 0.2%
    Hillingdon 452 0.2%
    Merton 24 0.0%
    Kingston upon Thames -148 -0.1%
    Newham -1193 -0.6%
    Croydon -3080 -1.1%
    Camden -2137 -1.4%
    Islington -2192 -1.4%
    Ealing -6055 -2.5%

    I'm not sure that increase in K&C will necessarily be hopeful to the Cons. Harder to say who the change in Barnet will benefit.

    I wonder what proportion of the Tower Hamlets increase is genuine?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Scott_P said:
    There's a Lady Bracknell quotation which springs to mind - from that well known Wilde play "The (self)- importance of being Jeremy"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sean_F said:

    The ONS have also released updated local electorate figures. There have been some quite big changes in some of the London boroughs in the last year:

    Council Change in electors % change
    Tower Hamlets 20289 12.0%
    Barnet 17907 7.5%
    Kensington and Chelsea 5752 6.2%
    Redbridge 9873 4.9%
    Southwark 8836 4.3%
    Hackney 6379 3.8%
    Wandsworth 6148 2.7%
    Brent 5906 2.7%
    Harrow 4843 2.7%
    Haringey 4511 2.7%
    Lewisham 4973 2.6%
    Havering 4618 2.5%
    Barking and Dagenham 2859 2.2%
    Waltham Forest 3858 2.1%
    Sutton 2332 1.6%
    Richmond upon Thames 2189 1.6%
    Hounslow 2930 1.6%
    Lambeth 3123 1.4%
    Enfield 2810 1.3%
    Greenwich 1984 1.1%
    Westminster 1342 1.0%
    Hammersmith and Fulham 1088 0.9%
    Bexley 1385 0.8%
    Bromley 1592 0.7%
    City of London 16 0.2%
    Hillingdon 452 0.2%
    Merton 24 0.0%
    Kingston upon Thames -148 -0.1%
    Newham -1193 -0.6%
    Croydon -3080 -1.1%
    Camden -2137 -1.4%
    Islington -2192 -1.4%
    Ealing -6055 -2.5%

    I'm not sure that increase in K&C will necessarily be hopeful to the Cons. Harder to say who the change in Barnet will benefit.

    I wonder what proportion of the Tower Hamlets increase is genuine?
    The most surprising to me looks to be Newham being negative.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    The boss of De La Rue was on the box this morning. Seemed like a well balanced sensible chap, and didn’t, unless I missed it, expect to have to lay anyone off in Gateshead. In business he said, you win some, you lose some.
    Your spoiling their gloating which is unseemly enough to give a true picture of their worth and therefore valuable no matter how distasteful.
    Can I have a translation of this comment please David.
    @Scott_P and others this morning seemed to think that the fact that some people might lose their jobs in Gateshead which had the temerity to vote leave by 57% was a good thing because leavers deserve it, or some such nonsense. Even putting aside the fact that it was EU regulations that caused this it struck me as being in very poor taste (and, thankfully, probably untrue).
    Nah, first of all show me the EU regulation which is relevant.

    And secondly, no one was gloating. We were pointing out that the voters of Gateshead likely voted to Leave because they were sick of elements of society today which they felt were discriminating against them and wanted to take back control whereas, as we have been saying for months, (cf. productivity, skilled workforce) such a vote would do and has done nothing to address the underlying problems, in this case it of seems British companies being uncompetitive.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,749
    Scott_P said:
    Scotland could get a better deal, simply by excluding rUK based fishing quota holders...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    Yes. But the real surprise was how Burnham won the borough in the Mayoral election with 55%. It went relatively unnoticed due to dramatic Conservative wins elsewhere.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_mayoral_election,_2017
    Graham Brady got 51% at the general election in Altrincham and Sale West and the Labour candidate 38%. Labour got 68% in Stretford and Urmston and the Tories 28% and 62% in Wythenshaw and Sale East and the Tories 30%
    The Altrincham and Sale West result implies the Tories ~5% ahead in the key Altrincham ward (For the purposes of the Labour bet) and almost level in Ashton Upon Mersey.
    I expect the result will end up NOC but the implied range for the bet is far too narrow at 8-11 so Labour control it is...
    NOC is the likeliest result yes, there are also 3 LDs and an independent on Trafford Council
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    Yes. But the real surprise was how Burnham won the borough in the Mayoral election with 55%. It went relatively unnoticed due to dramatic Conservative wins elsewhere.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_mayoral_election,_2017
    Graham Brady got 51% at the general election in Altrincham and Sale West and the Labour candidate 38%. Labour got 68% in Stretford and Urmston and the Tories 28% and 62% in Wythenshaw and Sale East and the Tories 30%
    The Altrincham and Sale West result implies the Tories ~5% ahead in the key Altrincham ward (For the purposes of the Labour bet) and almost level in Ashton Upon Mersey.
    I expect the result will end up NOC but the implied range for the bet is far too narrow at 8-11 so Labour control it is...
    NOC is the likeliest result yes, there are also 3 LDs and an independent on Trafford Council
    I've analysed the seat here.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lq7HWWYxfhvh-9FH655q0ClnwHrY508bImlQbJKS28E/edit?usp=sharing
  • I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_P said:
    All three Parliamentary constituencies in the council swung disproportionately to Labour last year. The 12/1 looks a good bet to me and I'm on.
    Yes. But the real surprise was how Burnham won the borough in the Mayoral election with 55%. It went relatively unnoticed due to dramatic Conservative wins elsewhere.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_mayoral_election,_2017
    Graham Brady got 51% at the general election in Altrincham and Sale West and the Labour candidate 38%. Labour got 68% in Stretford and Urmston and the Tories 28% and 62% in Wythenshaw and Sale East and the Tories 30%
    The Altrincham and Sale West result implies the Tories ~5% ahead in the key Altrincham ward (For the purposes of the Labour bet) and almost level in Ashton Upon Mersey.
    I expect the result will end up NOC but the implied range for the bet is far too narrow at 8-11 so Labour control it is...
    NOC is the likeliest result yes, there are also 3 LDs and an independent on Trafford Council
    I've analysed the seat here.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lq7HWWYxfhvh-9FH655q0ClnwHrY508bImlQbJKS28E/edit?usp=sharing
    Thanks
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2018

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    True but most of them will be quite rich and not want to pay the heavy council taxes of a Labour council either and local elections have no direct impact on Brexit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2018
    Brom said:

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
    Every councillor in Newham is currently Labour.

    Labour hold 22 of the Tower Hamlets council seats, Tower Hamlets Independent hold 18 and the Tories 5 at present.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
    Every councillor in Newham is currently Labour
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
    Every councillor in Newham is currently Labour
    It can't be long then before Newham gets its roadsigns upgraded to "Welcome to Newham - Land of Milk and Honey".
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Having watched Corbyn's latest Russia statement - is he really that politically tone deaf?

    He is just sticking to Russian lines over and over again.

    Does he really believe that Russia would take his Human Rights concerns seriously?

    Of course they wouldn't. They would dismiss him like the pygmy he is.
  • HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
    Every councillor in Newham is currently Labour.

    Labour hold 22 of the Tower Hamlets council seats, Tower Hamlets Independent hold 18 and the Tories 5 at present.
    Nah, one of them was expelled from Labour, and sits as an Independent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
    Every councillor in Newham is currently Labour.

    Labour hold 22 of the Tower Hamlets council seats, Tower Hamlets Independent hold 18 and the Tories 5 at present.
    I'm guessing the 5 Tories are on the far west of Tower Hamlets.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
    Every councillor in Newham is currently Labour
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
    Every councillor in Newham is currently Labour
    It can't be long then before Newham gets its roadsigns upgraded to "Welcome to Newham - Land of Milk and Honey".
    Get a free Corbyn mug when you enter the borough!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited March 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
    Every councillor in Newham is currently Labour.

    Labour hold 22 of the Tower Hamlets council seats, Tower Hamlets Independent hold 18 and the Tories 5 at present.
    I'm guessing the 5 Tories are on the far west of Tower Hamlets.
    Probably, Canary Wharf is in Tower Hamlets so I imagine they are concentrated around there
  • DavidL said:

    Its early yet and I am in shock about events down under but has he not done better than anyone since 2001? He probably didn't beat Blair in 97 but then who did?

    I just logged on and read this comment and assumed that there'd been a natural disaster or a terrorist attack or something really serious during the night... Now, scrolling up, I see it's just blather about some sporting event or other which, like all sporting events, I don't follow.

    Either "shock" isn't an appropriate word to use about sporting events or maybe, with the state of the world at present, I'm just conditioned to expect the worst.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
    Every councillor in Newham is currently Labour
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
    Every councillor in Newham is currently Labour
    It can't be long then before Newham gets its roadsigns upgraded to "Welcome to Newham - Land of Milk and Honey".
    Get a free Corbyn mug when you enter the borough!
    Some odd gardening going on in Newham to be honest. Whats with the hideous off orange and white diamond paving?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited March 2018
    This is a disgrace. A 60% increase since Euro 2016.

    I’ve had every collection since Italia 90.

    https://twitter.com/mirrorfootball/status/976818294727610369?s=21
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
    Every councillor in Newham is currently Labour
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I think Tower Hamlets must have gone on a big registration drive. Under individual registration, when an elector is added to the list at their new council they get taken off at their old council, which probably explains why Newham is down (there must be lots of people moving across the Tower Hamlets/Newham border each year).

    Regarding K&C, the worry for the Tories must be there are at least 10k electors in the borough who are eligible for local elections but not national elections (mostly EU citizens)

    But, but, but...we keep being told that Newham can’t cope with the deluge of immigrants.

    Perhaps they are just the non-voting kind - lesser breeds without the law and all that.
    Newham is a dump. Prime territory for Jezza the messiah to exploit. Tories will hold most of the outer boroughs but Lab will rack up some serious numbers in Tower Hamlets.
    Every councillor in Newham is currently Labour
    It can't be long then before Newham gets its roadsigns upgraded to "Welcome to Newham - Land of Milk and Honey".
    Get a free Corbyn mug when you enter the borough!
    Some odd gardening going on in Newham to be honest. Whats with the hideous off orange and white diamond paving?
    Blame the Labour council!
  • NEW THREAD

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    DavidL said:

    MJW said:


    Indeed. In 2017 though he had Brexit shoring up his moderate flank, as a lot of socially liberal moderates swallowed their misgivings about Corbyn as their primary motivation was not giving the Conservatives carte blanche to indulge their Brexit zealots. If you look at polling now, more Labour supporters think we should stay in the EU (however that's achieved) than think Corbyn will make a good PM. The question is, whether that can hold until the next election, and I don't think it can in most scenarios - as short of Corbyn demanding a second referendum and campaigning properly this time, it will either be a non issue, if we get a decent deal and abandon some of the sillier notions of Rees-Mogg et al, or Corbyn will be seen as complicit in the disaster.

    May is heading to the softest of soft Brexits where disruption or indeed change will not be noticeable to the majority of people. So far, remarkably, she has brought the wildest Brexiteers along with her and she seems increasingly confident about facing them down. The economy is trundling along reasonably well, still generating more jobs, soon to start delivering real wage increases again and putting chunky sums into public services, notably health. If you add the £4bn for the wage deal to the sums in the last budget we are more than half way to the £350m a week already.

    There is lots and lots that can go wrong yet but right now quite a lot is going right.
    It was disruptive change through immigration which led to Brexit.

    Ending that will be enough for many people.

    The support for Liam Fox to bestride the world conducting trade deals is, I suspect, somewhat niche.

    Freedom of movement will end in some symbolic way. In practical terms it will stay pretty much as it is - especially at the bottom end. The country will not make the sacrifices needed for a fundamental change.

    It is no sacrifice to restrict low and no skilled immigration.

    It is if it leads to higher prices and higher taxes.

    And how does it do that ?

    Perhaps you could explain how we have lower prices and lower taxes because thousands of Eastern European Roma now live in Rotherham ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Dura_Ace said:




    It was disruptive change through immigration which led to Brexit.

    Ending that will be enough for many people.

    May could have ended non-EU immigration at any point during, what felt like, the 115 years she was Home Secretary but chose not to do so. Whatever Brexit does or doesn't do reducing immigration won't be one of its manifold and bountiful gifts.
    I don't think May chose to do anything when Home Secretary.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    What is the kremlinology of the Bolton appointment? Trump has often been critical of the Bush-era neocons, and Bolton is no fan of Russia, so that is two reasons not to appoint him.
This discussion has been closed.