I have to say, love him or hate him, Trump is at least doing something about China's clear and consistent abuses of the global trade system.
He's not doing anything yet - there is a consultation period now before anything is imposed. It's interesting that Trump has also exempted the EU and other major allies from the steel tariffs the US is set to levy. If the US is going to have a trade war with China it desperately needs back-up from elsewhere.
The case for a rethink on the EU has been put about in entirely the wrong manner. The arguments have seemed to revolve around
a) Legal chicanery (Jo Maugham, Gina Miller, Liz Webster) (The Art 50 court case was a triumph for the supreme court judiciary in the end - but this was not the intent) b) Parliamentary chicanery (Attempting to amend the bill out of sight, unelected House of Lords blocking stuff) c) The whole "Its too hard" arguments - 'unsolveability of Ireland', Spain will veto Gibraltar, fisheries etc.
The referendum was had, article 50 triggered. We have exchanged on the exit (We may well be entangled deeply within the rules of the EU for years afterwards, but this will be our agreement outwith the EU signed as a sovereign nation) and need to head out the door before a genuine positive case can be made for joining the EU again. I'm afraid alot of the publicly visible continuity remain campaign has been a nonsense.
What we hear is that we have to give it 10,20 or even 40 years before we can even think about re-joining the EU which is nonsense.
Once we have left on 29/3/19, re-joining will be a perfectly credible option though of course the terms on which we will re-join may be a tad less than palatable for some.
A thoughtful EU might seek to throw the UK a few carrots in the mid 2020s - continued opt-outs from EU, Schengen, a generous budget settlement etc - but that's not likely as things stand. It's more likely the EU will head off on its own path (and may lose another country or two along the way) meaning deeper and closer integration.
I don't know how the post-EU world will look for the UK in the late 2020s and 2030s I suspect a new equilibrium will be established which will mean we're not as far from the EU as some would like and not as close as some might hope.
This all pre-supposes no major re-alignment in world affairs (US becomes isolationist, China collapses, Russia becomes a western-style democracy) which would have huge economic impacts.
Fantastic news. I’d like to find out where exactly he got involved in the story. As a DS it’s unlikely to have been at the park bench, unless he was by chance just passing by. So was he exposed at the house, the car or the hospital? We know that his car was picked up from the hospital. He was possibly the most senior officer on duty at the station on the Sunday, and we know it took a while before everyone realised this wasn’t a couple of drugged-out bums on a park bench.
The only possible second referendum is on the “Noel Edmunds” question.
The idea that we shouldn’t leave because it’s too difficult only plays onto the hands of those who wanted us to leave on the first place.
The case for a rethink on the EU has been put about in entirely the wrong manner. The arguments have seemed to revolve around
a) Legal chicanery (Jo Maugham, Gina Miller, Liz Webster) (The Art 50 court case was a triumph for the supreme court judiciary in the end - but this was not the intent) b) Parliamentary chicanery (Attempting to amend the bill out of sight, unelected House of Lords blocking stuff) c) The whole "Its too hard" arguments - 'unsolveability of Ireland', Spain will veto Gibraltar, fisheries etc.
The referendum was had, article 50 triggered. We have exchanged on the exit (We may well be entangled deeply within the rules of the EU for years afterwards, but this will be our agreement outwith the EU signed as a sovereign nation) and need to head out the door before a genuine positive case can be made for joining the EU again. I'm afraid alot of the publicly visible continuity remain campaign has been a nonsense.
The case for a rethink on the EU has been put about in entirely the wrong manner. The arguments have seemed to revolve around
a) Legal chicanery (Jo Maugham, Gina Miller, Liz Webster) (The Art 50 court case was a triumph for the supreme court judiciary in the end - but this was not the intent) b) Parliamentary chicanery (Attempting to amend the bill out of sight, unelected House of Lords blocking stuff) c) The whole "Its too hard" arguments - 'unsolveability of Ireland', Spain will veto Gibraltar, fisheries etc.
The referendum was had, article 50 triggered. We have exchanged on the exit (We may well be entangled deeply within the rules of the EU for years afterwards, but this will be our agreement outwith the EU signed as a sovereign nation) and need to head out the door before a genuine positive case can be made for joining the EU again. I'm afraid alot of the publicly visible continuity remain campaign has been a nonsense.
What we hear is that we have to give it 10,20 or even 40 years before we can even think about re-joining the EU which is nonsense.
Once we have left on 29/3/19, re-joining will be a perfectly credible option though of course the terms on which we will re-join may be a tad less than palatable for some.
A thoughtful EU might seek to throw the UK a few carrots in the mid 2020s - continued opt-outs from EU, Schengen, a generous budget settlement etc - but that's not likely as things stand. It's more likely the EU will head off on its own path (and may lose another country or two along the way) meaning deeper and closer integration.
I don't know how the post-EU world will look for the UK in the late 2020s and 2030s I suspect a new equilibrium will be established which will mean we're not as far from the EU as some would like and not as close as some might hope.
This all pre-supposes no major re-alignment in world affairs (US becomes isolationist, China collapses, Russia becomes a western-style democracy) which would have huge economic impacts.
I wouldn’t rule anything in or out, politics could take all sorts of turns over that horizon, but I suspect we’ll move from being half-in/half-out to half-out/half-in.
Ed Vaizey announces his intention to put his name forward to be the Tory candidate to challenge Sadiq Khan in the 2020 London Mayoral election. Other names in the frame are Justine Greening and Syed Kamall.
The candidate is likely to be picked before the autumn party conference.
A smart move by Cable. He wants to make it look like all the European sandal wearers are chucking us out of the EU so that the British public rebels against them by insisting we'll stay as long as we want.
I doubt even you believe the bollocks you just wrote.
Instead of crying and playing up to the hysteria she could have just said that the IDLR will most certainly stand, and when or if she needs to regularise her status you will assist her.
The tweets are just hysterical nonsense. Because she had heard/read of cases of somebody not getting the necessary visa means she shouldnt even bother trying and leave is pathetic. Those cases that have come about have been about incorrect paperwork etc.
Ed Vaizey announces his intention to put his name forward to be the Tory candidate to challenge Sadiq Khan in the 2020 London Mayoral election. Other names in the frame are Justine Greening and Syed Kamall.
The candidate is likely to be picked before the autumn party conference.
What we hear is that we have to give it 10,20 or even 40 years before we can even think about re-joining the EU which is nonsense.
Once we have left on 29/3/19, re-joining will be a perfectly credible option though of course the terms on which we will re-join may be a tad less than palatable for some.
A thoughtful EU might seek to throw the UK a few carrots in the mid 2020s - continued opt-outs from EU, Schengen, a generous budget settlement etc - but that's not likely as things stand. It's more likely the EU will head off on its own path (and may lose another country or two along the way) meaning deeper and closer integration.
I don't know how the post-EU world will look for the UK in the late 2020s and 2030s I suspect a new equilibrium will be established which will mean we're not as far from the EU as some would like and not as close as some might hope.
This all pre-supposes no major re-alignment in world affairs (US becomes isolationist, China collapses, Russia becomes a western-style democracy) which would have huge economic impacts.
The more we deviate from the status quo, there will be pressure to rejoin the EU. The greater the convergence and the more we are a "vassal state", the pressure to rejoin eases off. It's an equilibrium. It may be in the EU's interest to make life outside a bit uncomfortable and maintain a divide between membership and non-membership. The lack of a perceived downgrade with the loss of membership led to the Leave vote in the first place. OTOH the EU may be happy to keep the UK in their orbit.
What we hear is that we have to give it 10,20 or even 40 years before we can even think about re-joining the EU which is nonsense.
Once we have left on 29/3/19, re-joining will be a perfectly credible option though of course the terms on which we will re-join may be a tad less than palatable for some.
A thoughtful EU might seek to throw the UK a few carrots in the mid 2020s - continued opt-outs from EU, Schengen, a generous budget settlement etc - but that's not likely as things stand. It's more likely the EU will head off on its own path (and may lose another country or two along the way) meaning deeper and closer integration.
I don't know how the post-EU world will look for the UK in the late 2020s and 2030s I suspect a new equilibrium will be established which will mean we're not as far from the EU as some would like and not as close as some might hope.
This all pre-supposes no major re-alignment in world affairs (US becomes isolationist, China collapses, Russia becomes a western-style democracy) which would have huge economic impacts.
The more we deviate from the status quo, there will be pressure to rejoin the EU. The greater the convergence and the more we are a "vassal state", the pressure to rejoin eases off. It's an equilibrium. It may be in the EU's interest to make life outside a bit uncomfortable and maintain a divide between membership and non-membership. The lack of a perceived downgrade with the loss of membership led to the Leave vote in the first place. OTOH the EU may be happy to keep the UK in their orbit.
The people who imagine the EU will quickly become a 'foreign land' ignore the realities of geography and economics. It will continue to play far too big a role in our politics for it to ever become just another place.
Instead of crying and playing up to the hysteria she could have just said that the IDLR will most certainly stand, and when or if she needs to regularise her status you will assist her.
The tweets are just hysterical nonsense. Because she had heard/read of cases of somebody not getting the necessary visa means she shouldnt even bother trying and leave is pathetic. Those cases that have come about have been about incorrect paperwork etc.
It is a classic bit of emotional blackmail. None of the stuff about what the family has gone through has any relevance to her right to remain in the UK - which seems beyond dispute.
Feels more like attention seeking than anything else. And, of course, Jess Phillips loves to do the same. Jumping on the outrage bus before doing any fact checking.
Ed Vaizey announces his intention to put his name forward to be the Tory candidate to challenge Sadiq Khan in the 2020 London Mayoral election. Other names in the frame are Justine Greening and Syed Kamall.
The candidate is likely to be picked before the autumn party conference.
None of those three are likely to lose Sadiq Khan any sleep. Vaizey and Greening both washed up has-beens. Kamall the best of a bad bunch though IIRC he was a Brexiter.
Ed Vaizey announces his intention to put his name forward to be the Tory candidate to challenge Sadiq Khan in the 2020 London Mayoral election. Other names in the frame are Justine Greening and Syed Kamall.
The candidate is likely to be picked before the autumn party conference.
Ed Vaizey has one thing in common with London - like the Thames Barrier, his ego is visible from space.
It would be fascinating if Charlie Mullins stood for the LDs or an LD-supported Independent. At the moment, for all the vitriol he attracts on here, Sadiq Khan is the dominant London political figure and will probably win if he chooses to seek a second term.
There is, as there was for Boris, the national dimension. Khan has been an MP and whether he sees himself as a future post-Corbyn leadership candidate I don't know but IF, as so many on here seem to want, Corbyn goes down to defeat at the next GE and steps down, Khan could be well placed to take over.
Instead of crying and playing up to the hysteria she could have just said that the IDLR will most certainly stand, and when or if she needs to regularise her status you will assist her.
The tweets are just hysterical nonsense. Because she had heard/read of cases of somebody not getting the necessary visa means she shouldnt even bother trying and leave is pathetic. Those cases that have come about have been about incorrect paperwork etc.
It is a classic bit of emotional blackmail. None of the stuff about what the family has gone through has any relevance to her right to remain in the UK - which seems beyond dispute.
Feels more like attention seeking than anything else. And, of course, Jess Phillips loves to do the same. Jumping on the outrage bus before doing any fact checking.
Yes. I looked into this case earlier today, and found that the guy’s Twitter feed might as well have been written by williamglen.
However, the Home Office need to do much, much better on reassurance to people in the position of his mother. (I’m assuming for the purposes of this post that his mother is both real and actually emigrating). The government should be writing to every EU citizen currently resident to make sure they understand there’s no change to their status due to Brexit.
Ed Vaizey announces his intention to put his name forward to be the Tory candidate to challenge Sadiq Khan in the 2020 London Mayoral election. Other names in the frame are Justine Greening and Syed Kamall.
The candidate is likely to be picked before the autumn party conference.
Ed Vaizey has one thing in common with London - like the Thames Barrier, his ego is visible from space.
It would be fascinating if Charlie Mullins stood for the LDs or an LD-supported Independent. At the moment, for all the vitriol he attracts on here, Sadiq Khan is the dominant London political figure and will probably win if he chooses to seek a second term.
There is, as there was for Boris, the national dimension. Khan has been an MP and whether he sees himself as a future post-Corbyn leadership candidate I don't know but IF, as so many on here seem to want, Corbyn goes down to defeat at the next GE and steps down, Khan could be well placed to take over.
David Cameron should stand. Show Boris how it should be done....
Ed Vaizey announces his intention to put his name forward to be the Tory candidate to challenge Sadiq Khan in the 2020 London Mayoral election. Other names in the frame are Justine Greening and Syed Kamall.
The candidate is likely to be picked before the autumn party conference.
Ed Vaizey has one thing in common with London - like the Thames Barrier, his ego is visible from space.
It would be fascinating if Charlie Mullins stood for the LDs or an LD-supported Independent. At the moment, for all the vitriol he attracts on here, Sadiq Khan is the dominant London political figure and will probably win if he chooses to seek a second term.
There is, as there was for Boris, the national dimension. Khan has been an MP and whether he sees himself as a future post-Corbyn leadership candidate I don't know but IF, as so many on here seem to want, Corbyn goes down to defeat at the next GE and steps down, Khan could be well placed to take over.
I don't see Khan losing any sleep over Mullins either. I disliked Khan when he was an MP but have warmed to him a bit as mayor. He's still an awful speaker but in some ways it's been good for London to have a quiet mayor after two rabid show offs.
A startling fact. More people - 8 - have been shot or stabbed to death in London this week, than have been murdered in Chicago (5)
Under the brilliant mayoralty of Sadiq Khan, London is now more dangerous than one of the homicide capitals of America, despite them having zillions of guns and us having almost none.
Ed Vaizey announces his intention to put his name forward to be the Tory candidate to challenge Sadiq Khan in the 2020 London Mayoral election. Other names in the frame are Justine Greening and Syed Kamall.
The candidate is likely to be picked before the autumn party conference.
None of those three are likely to lose Sadiq Khan any sleep. Vaizey and Greening both washed up has-beens. Kamall the best of a bad bunch though IIRC he was a Brexiter.
The Conservative Party needs to chose a young, thrusting MP.
A startling fact. More people - 8 - have been shot or stabbed to death in London this week, than have been murdered in Chicago (5)
Under the brilliant mayoralty of Sadiq Khan, London is now more dangerous than one of the homicide capitals of America, despite them having zillions of guns and us having almost none.
I have to say, love him or hate him, Trump is at least doing something about China's clear and consistent abuses of the global trade system.
Folk were saying things similar in tone about Trump and gun control a few weeks ago. Not heard anything recently.
I didn't expect any follow through, I just though the fact of a Trump anti-NRA soundbite in itself changed the zeitgeist a little bit - I think I said, it might mean we are now only 4 atrocities away from a tightening of controls when before we were 5. I doubt US-China relations are zeitgeist sensitive to the same extent.
A startling fact. More people - 8 - have been shot or stabbed to death in London this week, than have been murdered in Chicago (5)
Under the brilliant mayoralty of Sadiq Khan, London is now more dangerous than one of the homicide capitals of America, despite them having zillions of guns and us having almost none.
A startling fact. More people - 8 - have been shot or stabbed to death in London this week, than have been murdered in Chicago (5)
Under the brilliant mayoralty of Sadiq Khan, London is now more dangerous than one of the homicide capitals of America, despite them having zillions of guns and us having almost none.
A startling fact. More people - 8 - have been shot or stabbed to death in London this week, than have been murdered in Chicago (5)
Under the brilliant mayoralty of Sadiq Khan, London is now more dangerous than one of the homicide capitals of America, despite them having zillions of guns and us having almost none.
Oxford feels very much like a one party state. There are a few LDs and a couple of Greens on the City Council but Labour have been in power for too long here. No opposition. No proper scrutiny.
Ha. If you think Oxford is a one-party state you should try West Oxfordshire. Dominated by a single party in the way that Oxford City is (a different party, of course), but with the difference that most council services have now been hived off to an unaccountable Teckal company called Publica. Real Private Eye "rotten boroughs" stuff.
Good old SeanT always trying to spin an anti Labour line.
I don't know why he doesn't put himself forward to be the Conservative candidate for Mayor. He's better than the non-entities who have so far put their collective hats in the ring.
Oxford feels very much like a one party state. There are a few LDs and a couple of Greens on the City Council but Labour have been in power for too long here. No opposition. No proper scrutiny.
Ha. If you think Oxford is a one-party state you should try West Oxfordshire. Dominated by a single party in the way that Oxford City is (a different party, of course), but with the difference that most council services have now been hived off to an unaccountable Teckal company called Publica. Real Private Eye "rotten boroughs" stuff.
Good old SeanT always trying to spin an anti Labour line.
I don't know why he doesn't put himself forward to be the Conservative candidate for Mayor. He's better than the non-entities who have so far put their collective hats in the ring.
After the hatchet job the media did on Toby Young? Who in their right mind would put themselves forward for office if their every word and youthful indiscretion was considered fair game?
“I’m not sure that the language used by some British ministers is particularly helpful or sensible,” says Donald Trump....No wait it wasn't Donald, it was jezza, but imagine the outrage if trump had said it.
Good people on both sides, both to blame, yadda yadda
Good old SeanT always trying to spin an anti Labour line.
I don't know why he doesn't put himself forward to be the Conservative candidate for Mayor. He's better than the non-entities who have so far put their collective hats in the ring.
After the hatchet job the media did on Toby Young? Who in their right mind would put themselves forward for office if their every word and youthful indiscretion was considered fair game?
So, London's had a pretty horrendous last week. And, murders have spiked sharply from 2014. However - and especially in the context of a much larger population - the murder rate is well below the levels seen pre-2010.
A startling fact. More people - 8 - have been shot or stabbed to death in London this week, than have been murdered in Chicago (5)
Under the brilliant mayoralty of Sadiq Khan, London is now more dangerous than one of the homicide capitals of America, despite them having zillions of guns and us having almost none.
Aren't there only about two and a half million people in Chicago?
lol. Are you really gonna make that argument???
It's not irrelevant when making the comparison, even though Londons situation is still very bad as a result, far worse than I had thought.
The Chicago metropolitan area, often referred to as Chicagoland, has nearly 10 million people and is the third-largest in the United States.
London's estimated mid-2016 municipal population (corresponding to Greater London) was 8,787,892, the largest of any city in the European Union.
Comparing the size of cities is always fraught with difficulties. Where does the city stop and the satellite towns start? It's probably fair to say that the London Metropolitan Area is somewhat larger than Greater London. But I don't know North East Illinois well enough to say where Chicago stops and whether Greater Chicago includes the equivalent of Slough, or goes out to Luton, or Northampton, or what.
What we can say is that they are cities of a similar order of magnitude.
So, London's had a pretty horrendous last week. And, murders have spiked sharply from 2014. However - and especially in the context of a much larger population - the murder rate is well below the levels seen pre-2010.
Boris oversaw a noteable reduction from the Livingstone Death Years.....
Good old SeanT always trying to spin an anti Labour line.
I don't know why he doesn't put himself forward to be the Conservative candidate for Mayor. He's better than the non-entities who have so far put their collective hats in the ring.
After the hatchet job the media did on Toby Young? Who in their right mind would put themselves forward for office if their every word and youthful indiscretion was considered fair game?
"The trick is not to mind."
"The trick, Sean F, is not minding that it hurts!"
Oxford feels very much like a one party state. There are a few LDs and a couple of Greens on the City Council but Labour have been in power for too long here. No opposition. No proper scrutiny.
Ha. If you think Oxford is a one-party state you should try West Oxfordshire. Dominated by a single party in the way that Oxford City is (a different party, of course), but with the difference that most council services have now been hived off to an unaccountable Teckal company called Publica. Real Private Eye "rotten boroughs" stuff.
What we need is STV for council elections.
If TSE put himself up for election, we would end up with STD for council elections
Oxford feels very much like a one party state. There are a few LDs and a couple of Greens on the City Council but Labour have been in power for too long here. No opposition. No proper scrutiny.
Ha. If you think Oxford is a one-party state you should try West Oxfordshire. Dominated by a single party in the way that Oxford City is (a different party, of course), but with the difference that most council services have now been hived off to an unaccountable Teckal company called Publica. Real Private Eye "rotten boroughs" stuff.
What we need is STV for council elections.
If TSE put himself up for election, we would end up with STD for council elections
TSE got the all clear from the clinic last week ....
What - so this is no longer outrageous because one of the perpetrators is black?
Look, I'm no fan of the SNP. But at least some of them have some sort of electoral mandate. I'd rather have Alex Salmond in some sort of position of power than Rowan Williams or Justin Welby. Bishops are a shower of diagonal-moving bastards.
What - so this is no longer outrageous because one of the perpetrators is black?
Look, I'm no fan of the SNP. But at least some of them have some sort of electoral mandate. I'd rather have Alex Salmond in some sort of position of power than Rowan Williams or Justin Welby. Bishops are a shower of diagonal-moving bastards.
I was just yanking TUD's chain plus setting up the dénouement of a bishop bashing gag.
As an agnostic supporter of electoral/House of Lords reform I think it is an outrage that our upper house joins Iran as the only Parliaments that has unelected theologians in it.
Good old SeanT always trying to spin an anti Labour line.
I don't know why he doesn't put himself forward to be the Conservative candidate for Mayor. He's better than the non-entities who have so far put their collective hats in the ring.
After the hatchet job the media did on Toby Young? Who in their right mind would put themselves forward for office if their every word and youthful indiscretion was considered fair game?
I think you'd be pleasantly surprised by how little impoverished public life would be if we excluded from it people who have joked that the thought of starving African children causes them to masturbate.
So, London's had a pretty horrendous last week. And, murders have spiked sharply from 2014. However - and especially in the context of a much larger population - the murder rate is well below the levels seen pre-2010.
London's homicide rate was 1.6 per 100 000 in 2011, so presumably similar in 2017 on your figures Chicago's homicide rate was 24 per 100 000 in 2017.
Good old SeanT always trying to spin an anti Labour line.
I don't know why he doesn't put himself forward to be the Conservative candidate for Mayor. He's better than the non-entities who have so far put their collective hats in the ring.
After the hatchet job the media did on Toby Young? Who in their right mind would put themselves forward for office if their every word and youthful indiscretion was considered fair game?
I think you'd be pleasantly surprised by how little impoverished public life would be if we excluded from it people who have joked that the thought of starving African children causes them to masturbate.
I'm rather more interested in whether a person is competent and effective in their job than whether or not they have an off-colour sense of humour.
In my opinion certain segments of the left use exaggerated offence and outrage to shut down political opponents whose politics they disagree with - Toby Young being a prime example.
Good old SeanT always trying to spin an anti Labour line.
I don't know why he doesn't put himself forward to be the Conservative candidate for Mayor. He's better than the non-entities who have so far put their collective hats in the ring.
After the hatchet job the media did on Toby Young? Who in their right mind would put themselves forward for office if their every word and youthful indiscretion was considered fair game?
I think you'd be pleasantly surprised by how little impoverished public life would be if we excluded from it people who have joked that the thought of starving African children causes them to masturbate.
I'm rather more interested in whether a person is competent and effective in their job than whether or not they have an off-colour sense of humour.
In my opinion certain segments of the left use exaggerated offence and outrage to shut down political opponents whose politics they disagree with - Toby Young being a prime example.
TobyYoung is a self-publicising boor. How about we don't appoint people to sinecures because they knock about in the same journo-cum-politico north london set?
I see that the great retail apocalypse mentioned so repeatedly by the BBC and the Guardian again failed to appear in the actual ONS retail sales figures.
Oh no, 3.75%. The other 96.25% remaining in London.
It'll probably be a little worse than that, if we're going to be realistic. Junior staff won't get relocated; they'll be let go and replaced by junior people in the destination country.
I'd be very interested to see who is being relocated: is it people who service the French market, and for whom being in London with no financial passporting might be an issue? (And are they moving in theory, where their employment contract changes, but they still spend much of their time in London?)
A bigger issue is if you start to see whole functions move: so, maybe derivatives trading of Euro denominated interest rate contracts for all the banks ends up in Paris. Right now, London is lucky that some firms are moving staff to Amsterdam, some to Frankfurt, some to Paris or Dublin.
Longer term, I think the likelihood is that financial services in Europe becomes like that in the US, with much greater regional competences. London will be New York: pre-eminent but not the sole centre.
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.” '
Yes, from what I can tell it's never been easier to land a job in the City. I've just begun dipping my toe back in the market and I've lined up meetings with a couple of American banks and a European one, none of them mention possible relocation to Europe in the short or medium term.
Something my old manager pointed out when we voted Leave was that we may lose 10% to Europe but gain 20% from everywhere else so overall the City would benefit and shift away from relying on the single market and get away from EU rules which are intended to damage London.
Sky reporting that TMays meeting with Merkel and Macron reaffirmed that there is no plausible explanation for the nerve attack in Salisbury other than the Russian state was responsible
Oh no, 3.75%. The other 96.25% remaining in London.
It'll probably be a little worse than that, if we're going to be realistic. Junior staff won't get relocated; they'll be let go and replaced by junior people in the destination country.
I'd be very interested to see who is being relocated: is it people who service the French market, and for whom being in London with no financial passporting might be an issue? (And are they moving in theory, where their employment contract changes, but they still spend much of their time in London?)
A bigger issue is if you start to see whole functions move: so, maybe derivatives trading of Euro denominated interest rate contracts for all the banks ends up in Paris. Right now, London is lucky that some firms are moving staff to Amsterdam, some to Frankfurt, some to Paris or Dublin.
Longer term, I think the likelihood is that financial services in Europe becomes like that in the US, with much greater regional competences. London will be New York: pre-eminent but not the sole centre.
The way Reuters reported it made it sound like 300 jobs *created* elsewhere, with some but not 300 jobs going here.
The centre of gravity will move from London, but only as far as the English channel.
So, London's had a pretty horrendous last week. And, murders have spiked sharply from 2014. However - and especially in the context of a much larger population - the murder rate is well below the levels seen pre-2010.
Boris oversaw a noteable reduction from the Livingstone Death Years.....
Eyeballing those numbers, it would seem that having a Conservative Mayor saw falling murder rates, while under Livingston and Khan, murder rates were flat or rose.
So, London's had a pretty horrendous last week. And, murders have spiked sharply from 2014. However - and especially in the context of a much larger population - the murder rate is well below the levels seen pre-2010.
London's homicide rate was 1.6 per 100 000 in 2011, so presumably similar in 2017 on your figures Chicago's homicide rate was 24 per 100 000 in 2017.
Yes, from what I can tell it's never been easier to land a job in the City. I've just begun dipping my toe back in the market and I've lined up meetings with a couple of American banks and a European one, none of them mention possible relocation to Europe in the short or medium term.
You've just become more employable since your stint in Zurich.
Longer term, I think the likelihood is that financial services in Europe becomes like that in the US, with much greater regional competences. London will be New York: pre-eminent but not the sole centre.
I thought we'd established that London was the new Chicago?
Yes, from what I can tell it's never been easier to land a job in the City. I've just begun dipping my toe back in the market and I've lined up meetings with a couple of American banks and a European one, none of them mention possible relocation to Europe in the short or medium term.
You've just become more employable since your stint in Zurich.
Probably true, but none of the roles mentioned a possible relocation as part of the spec.
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.” '
Companies will tend to overstate job losses when they want the government to do something but understate job losses when actually carrying them out. I suspect there will be a drift of banking activity from the UK to the EU over time. The EU will want the activity to happen under their control and member states want the business. They have the means to make it happen. The question is how quickly.
Longer term, I think the likelihood is that financial services in Europe becomes like that in the US, with much greater regional competences. London will be New York: pre-eminent but not the sole centre.
I thought we'd established that London was the new Chicago?
My guess is that London will lose a little bit of asset management business to the continent. It's the easiest thing to shift, and passporting can be a pain if you have a pan-European retail customer base. (My old firm, if we hadn't sold out, would have been quite negatively affected.)
I think Hedge Funds will be largely unimpacted, as they are mostly service companies for Bermuda or BVI based funds. (Indeed, if they are to go anywhere it will likely be Switzerland because the UK government, under one administration or another, decides to take a crack at some of the tax optimisation strategies used by the managers.)
Corporate finance: I would expect that sector specific stuff will all stay in London, as it's where the critical mass is, and all the support (legal, PR, etc.) There may be some small shifts of country specific staff, but I would expect it to be incredibly minor.
Trading: I think this is the area that's most at risk. If your capitalised entity for trading the French bond future is in Paris, then it is quite likely you will need to have the decision makers sitting inside the capitalised entity for legal reasons.
Back Office: I think this has probably been moving away from London (for cost reasons) for some time. Warsaw and Dublin will probably gain jobs and London lose them, and I think this is unconnected with Brexit.
It’s horrendous to have one party take all seats. See also Islington - with one Green doing the entire job of “Opposition”.
We desperately need proportional representation at a local level.
Agreed (and argued for it in Parliament, to little avail). I'm now in Surrey, where almost the only visible political action is Tories publicly squabbling with each other.
Though even Surrey CC has 9 LDs, 9 Residents Association, 1 Green and 1 Labour councillor so is not just a sea of blue even if a big Tory majority
"Ratepayers" = Tories "Independent" = Tory "Ourarea Independents" = Tories "Local Farmer" = Tory on the Parish Council receiving a taxpayer subsidy to drive a 4x4
A startling fact. More people - 8 - have been shot or stabbed to death in London this week, than have been murdered in Chicago (5)
Under the brilliant mayoralty of Sadiq Khan, London is now more dangerous than one of the homicide capitals of America, despite them having zillions of guns and us having almost none.
Separately: does anyone know *why* Trump has now decided to exempt the EU from steel tariffs?
I'm not sure it's as clear it as that. The word used was 'pause'.
Which rather suggests Trump is looking forward to trolling the EU a bit more. The *why* is simply his doing whatever is required to continue to be the centre of attention in whatever psychodrama he has instigated.
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.” '
Companies will tend to overstate job losses when they want the government to do something but understate job losses when actually carrying them out. I suspect there will be a drift of banking activity from the UK to the EU over time. The EU will want the activity to happen under their control and member states want the business. They have the means to make it happen. The question is how quickly.
The City has long term problems whatever the current situation is.
It employes high cost people in a high cost location and according to this:
Comments
Next you'll be telling us that Jezza is the messiah and not a naughty boy !!
Once we have left on 29/3/19, re-joining will be a perfectly credible option though of course the terms on which we will re-join may be a tad less than palatable for some.
A thoughtful EU might seek to throw the UK a few carrots in the mid 2020s - continued opt-outs from EU, Schengen, a generous budget settlement etc - but that's not likely as things stand. It's more likely the EU will head off on its own path (and may lose another country or two along the way) meaning deeper and closer integration.
I don't know how the post-EU world will look for the UK in the late 2020s and 2030s I suspect a new equilibrium will be established which will mean we're not as far from the EU as some would like and not as close as some might hope.
This all pre-supposes no major re-alignment in world affairs (US becomes isolationist, China collapses, Russia becomes a western-style democracy) which would have huge economic impacts.
I’d like to find out where exactly he got involved in the story. As a DS it’s unlikely to have been at the park bench, unless he was by chance just passing by. So was he exposed at the house, the car or the hospital? We know that his car was picked up from the hospital. He was possibly the most senior officer on duty at the station on the Sunday, and we know it took a while before everyone realised this wasn’t a couple of drugged-out bums on a park bench.
I’m very comfortable with that.
The candidate is likely to be picked before the autumn party conference.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-ed-vaizey-challenges-sadiq-khan-for-role-of-mayor-a3796706.html?amp
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEJ7l0kfDic
The tweets are just hysterical nonsense. Because she had heard/read of cases of somebody not getting the necessary visa means she shouldnt even bother trying and leave is pathetic. Those cases that have come about have been about incorrect paperwork etc.
https://twitter.com/PeteWishart/status/976882443671175170
Feels more like attention seeking than anything else. And, of course, Jess Phillips loves to do the same. Jumping on the outrage bus before doing any fact checking.
There is, as there was for Boris, the national dimension. Khan has been an MP and whether he sees himself as a future post-Corbyn leadership candidate I don't know but IF, as so many on here seem to want, Corbyn goes down to defeat at the next GE and steps down, Khan could be well placed to take over.
However, the Home Office need to do much, much better on reassurance to people in the position of his mother. (I’m assuming for the purposes of this post that his mother is both real and actually emigrating). The government should be writing to every EU citizen currently resident to make sure they understand there’s no change to their status due to Brexit.
#ReferendumsLeadToOvertRacism #ShameOnTheSNP
In June 2017, the Tories absorbed the UKIP vote and Labour absorbed the Green vote, giving a result of 53/36 across the City.
How about that chap in Richmond-upon-Thames?
The fault lies with Theresa May and her change on stop and search.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/01/theresa-mays-stop-and-search-shake-up-is-costing-lives/
London's estimated mid-2016 municipal population (corresponding to Greater London) was 8,787,892, the largest of any city in the European Union.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/01/us/chicago-murders-2017-statistics/index.html
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/labour-racism-row-councillor-accused-12228722
Good people on both sides, both to blame, yadda yadda
What we can say is that they are cities of a similar order of magnitude.
Well how else would he be able to hang out with anti-Semitic conspiracy nutters.
Look, I'm no fan of the SNP. But at least some of them have some sort of electoral mandate. I'd rather have Alex Salmond in some sort of position of power than Rowan Williams or Justin Welby.
Bishops are a shower of diagonal-moving bastards.
As an agnostic supporter of electoral/House of Lords reform I think it is an outrage that our upper house joins Iran as the only Parliaments that has unelected theologians in it.
Trump is incapable of even that limited amount of linguistic complexity.
https://twitter.com/brexit/status/976914688633122816?s=21
Chicago's homicide rate was 24 per 100 000 in 2017.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/30/new-york-crime-free-day-deadliest-cities-worldwide
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/01/01/chicago-ends-2017-650-murders-grim-sign-improvement/994281001/
In my opinion certain segments of the left use exaggerated offence and outrage to shut down political opponents whose politics they disagree with - Toby Young being a prime example.
The other 96.25% remaining in London.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j467/drsi
After years of terrible austerity retail sales are currently more than double what they were in the loadsamoney and yuppie era of thirty years ago.
I'd be very interested to see who is being relocated: is it people who service the French market, and for whom being in London with no financial passporting might be an issue? (And are they moving in theory, where their employment contract changes, but they still spend much of their time in London?)
A bigger issue is if you start to see whole functions move: so, maybe derivatives trading of Euro denominated interest rate contracts for all the banks ends up in Paris. Right now, London is lucky that some firms are moving staff to Amsterdam, some to Frankfurt, some to Paris or Dublin.
Longer term, I think the likelihood is that financial services in Europe becomes like that in the US, with much greater regional competences. London will be New York: pre-eminent but not the sole centre.
' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.” '
https://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit/
Something my old manager pointed out when we voted Leave was that we may lose 10% to Europe but gain 20% from everywhere else so overall the City would benefit and shift away from relying on the single market and get away from EU rules which are intended to damage London.
The centre of gravity will move from London, but only as far as the English channel.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/summaryoflabourmarketstatistics
The peak jobs in financial and insurance activites was in 2008q4 at 1.209 million.
By comparison:
2015q4 1.111m
2016q4 1.127m
2017q4 1.134m
Considering how many branch closures there's been the 'high end' jobs must have expanded.
My guess is that London will lose a little bit of asset management business to the continent. It's the easiest thing to shift, and passporting can be a pain if you have a pan-European retail customer base. (My old firm, if we hadn't sold out, would have been quite negatively affected.)
I think Hedge Funds will be largely unimpacted, as they are mostly service companies for Bermuda or BVI based funds. (Indeed, if they are to go anywhere it will likely be Switzerland because the UK government, under one administration or another, decides to take a crack at some of the tax optimisation strategies used by the managers.)
Corporate finance: I would expect that sector specific stuff will all stay in London, as it's where the critical mass is, and all the support (legal, PR, etc.) There may be some small shifts of country specific staff, but I would expect it to be incredibly minor.
Trading: I think this is the area that's most at risk. If your capitalised entity for trading the French bond future is in Paris, then it is quite likely you will need to have the decision makers sitting inside the capitalised entity for legal reasons.
Back Office: I think this has probably been moving away from London (for cost reasons) for some time. Warsaw and Dublin will probably gain jobs and London lose them, and I think this is unconnected with Brexit.
“LibDems” = Tories
“Blairites” = Red Tories
What has he had to say on the subject?
Plus I believe one of his many, many broken promises relates to police numbers does it not?
Which rather suggests Trump is looking forward to trolling the EU a bit more. The *why* is simply his doing whatever is required to continue to be the centre of attention in whatever psychodrama he has instigated.
So Catwoman v Short-Trousers it is then.
It employes high cost people in a high cost location and according to this:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labourproductivity/timeseries/djg5/prdy
its productivity has been in decline during the last decade.