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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last the Pennsylvania Special election is resolved with the

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited March 23 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last the Pennsylvania Special election is resolved with the Republicans conceding defeat

Nine days after the Pennsylvania special election the Republicans conced defeat in Congressional District won by Trump with 20% margin AT WH2016https://t.co/1kdsQkmI3u

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Hurrah.
  • So the Dems should take the House in November ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    Second, like the Republicans.
  • Oh and primus inter pares
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    At least it’s been raining in Auckland, although there’s an early start tomorrow. For the travelling support there are many worse places to wander about in than Auckland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    Looks like the Denocrats are strong favourites to take the House in November then
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    F1: markets up, so time for perusal and cogitation ahead of the pre-qualifying ramble.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    edited March 23
    FPT
    rcs1000 said:

    Andrew said:


    Do we know what they're paid for the current contract and how that varies from the new contract bids ?

    £400m in 2009, which is about £510m in today's money.

    Apparently the French firm whose name I forget bid £490m this time, De la Rue bid £610m.

    De La Rue took the piss, assuming that the British government would want a British contractor.

    And you know what, if they'd bid £525m, that would be one thing. But they didn't. The bid 20% higher (in real terms), for a contract where they'd already made the capital expenditure, and which should have been cheaper in real terms.

    They behaved poorly and the government was right to take the contract from them.

    (And this is important: we want British firms to win contracts, sure. But we want them to win them by bidding a good price, not by assuming that the will win by default. The signal sent: that the British tax payer will not be taken advantage of, is the right one.)
    This sounds like my car insurance quotes.

    The initial quote is a quarter higher than the previous year.
    I have a quick search on the internet for alternatives.
    I ring up my current insurer and ask them if they can do better than their initial quote.
    I get offered a new quote which is less than I currently pay.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,101
    He’s an adman bigging up his data-science firm. There are lots of them.

    Yes, but he worked for Trump and Trump won. We cannot allow for the possibility that people voted for Trump of their own free will. They must have been tricked.

    Yes, I see. An evil genius able to manipulate public opinion with a few ads is a much more comforting idea.

    We also think the data science is a cover. Earlier this month he was caught on camera trying to sell his operation to some new clients. He was boasting about honeytraps and talking of sending some Ukrainian girls around to a rival candidate’s house.


    https://www.ft.com/content/211b9f42-2dca-11e8-a34a-7e7563b0b0f4
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,117
    Reads more like a 'must do better'.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    So is Vince overdue for his Werthers Originals and Shackleton's high seat chair ?

    ' Lib Dems embarrassed as EU leaders deny Brexit statement '

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/22/second-brexit-referendum-eight-eu-pms-deny-backing-liberal-democrats
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,101
    Ashcroft in America:

    In our groups, “buyers’ remorse” was confined to those who had voted mainly against Hillary Clinton, rather than for Trump. Across the country, this amounts to a significant chunk of the electorate, as we found during the campaign, and one that could make a big difference given how narrowly he won some states.

    But we found that those who had voted enthusiastically for Trump were still on board – often citing the economy and the stock market as evidence of his success – and were prepared to overlook his private conduct, however regrettable they found it. Stormy Daniels, an “adult actress” (as some in our groups delicately called her) claims she was paid $130,000 to keep quiet about an affair she had with Trump in 2006, but even our God-fearing Southern voters were unbothered.

    “I want someone to work on our economy and protect our shores. I don’t care about the rest of this stuff, because that’s all between them and God. I’m not going to be that moral compass for him;” “I wouldn’t want to be married to him, but other than that…;” “One of the worst presidents we’ve had in recent times was probably Carter, and he was one of the most moral presidents…


    https://www.conservativehome.com/international/2018/03/lord-ashcroft-we-didnt-elect-him-to-be-a-saint-we-elected-him-to-be-a-leader-my-latest-american-focus-groups.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824

    Ashcroft in America:

    In our groups, “buyers’ remorse” was confined to those who had voted mainly against Hillary Clinton, rather than for Trump. Across the country, this amounts to a significant chunk of the electorate, as we found during the campaign, and one that could make a big difference given how narrowly he won some states.

    But we found that those who had voted enthusiastically for Trump were still on board – often citing the economy and the stock market as evidence of his success – and were prepared to overlook his private conduct, however regrettable they found it. Stormy Daniels, an “adult actress” (as some in our groups delicately called her) claims she was paid $130,000 to keep quiet about an affair she had with Trump in 2006, but even our God-fearing Southern voters were unbothered.

    “I want someone to work on our economy and protect our shores. I don’t care about the rest of this stuff, because that’s all between them and God. I’m not going to be that moral compass for him;” “I wouldn’t want to be married to him, but other than that…;” “One of the worst presidents we’ve had in recent times was probably Carter, and he was one of the most moral presidents…


    https://www.conservativehome.com/international/2018/03/lord-ashcroft-we-didnt-elect-him-to-be-a-saint-we-elected-him-to-be-a-leader-my-latest-american-focus-groups.html

    Confirms that Biden or even Sanders could beat Trump but Hillarylite e.g. Gilibrand, Harris and Warren, likely would not
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,669
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    FPT private schools, I probably would not send a child to one, as it seems that they're subject to a law of diminishing returns. Every year, fees go up by more than inflation to pay for ever more elaborate facilities. A much better use of money would be to move to a place where State schools are very good, and then pay for private tuition as needed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,545
    edited March 23

    He’s an adman bigging up his data-science firm. There are lots of them.

    Yes, but he worked for Trump and Trump won. We cannot allow for the possibility that people voted for Trump of their own free will. They must have been tricked.

    Yes, I see. An evil genius able to manipulate public opinion with a few ads is a much more comforting idea.

    We also think the data science is a cover. Earlier this month he was caught on camera trying to sell his operation to some new clients. He was boasting about honeytraps and talking of sending some Ukrainian girls around to a rival candidate’s house.


    https://www.ft.com/content/211b9f42-2dca-11e8-a34a-7e7563b0b0f4

    More people voted for Hillary. And Trump won.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    Fact of the day: engineering giant Isambard Kingdom Brunel was barely five feet tall....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,584

    So is Vince overdue for his Werthers Originals and Shackleton's high seat chair ?

    ' Lib Dems embarrassed as EU leaders deny Brexit statement '

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/22/second-brexit-referendum-eight-eu-pms-deny-backing-liberal-democrats

    Unless LibDem rivals want to use this to unseat Cable, who will care or even notice? File it under stuff to be revisited if the LibDems flop in the locals.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    Jonathan said:

    He’s an adman bigging up his data-science firm. There are lots of them.

    Yes, but he worked for Trump and Trump won. We cannot allow for the possibility that people voted for Trump of their own free will. They must have been tricked.

    Yes, I see. An evil genius able to manipulate public opinion with a few ads is a much more comforting idea.

    We also think the data science is a cover. Earlier this month he was caught on camera trying to sell his operation to some new clients. He was boasting about honeytraps and talking of sending some Ukrainian girls around to a rival candidate’s house.


    https://www.ft.com/content/211b9f42-2dca-11e8-a34a-7e7563b0b0f4

    More people voted for Hillary. And Trump won.
    More people voted Labour than Conservative in 1951, but the Conservatives won. Like Trump, they got votes where they needed them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    On topic, but what was the turnout in the Pennsylvania election? And what waas the turnout last time?

    I seem to recall that people in UK who usually vote usually do, even though they change the party they vote for, but is that the case in the US? And isn't the turnout in US elections normally low..... 50 or so percent in Presidential ones and so on.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    Sean_F said:

    FPT private schools, I probably would not send a child to one, as it seems that they're subject to a law of diminishing returns. Every year, fees go up by more than inflation to pay for ever more elaborate facilities. A much better use of money would be to move to a place where State schools are very good, and then pay for private tuition as needed.

    Its interesting how things change.

    A couple of generations ago school fees were paid to greatly improve the chance that children would be able to go to university, which was free.

    Now a university education is much more easily achieved but its now extremely expensive.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,870

    Ashcroft in America:

    In our groups, “buyers’ remorse” was confined to those who had voted mainly against Hillary Clinton, rather than for Trump. Across the country, this amounts to a significant chunk of the electorate, as we found during the campaign, and one that could make a big difference given how narrowly he won some states.

    But we found that those who had voted enthusiastically for Trump were still on board – often citing the economy and the stock market as evidence of his success – and were prepared to overlook his private conduct, however regrettable they found it. Stormy Daniels, an “adult actress” (as some in our groups delicately called her) claims she was paid $130,000 to keep quiet about an affair she had with Trump in 2006, but even our God-fearing Southern voters were unbothered.

    “I want someone to work on our economy and protect our shores. I don’t care about the rest of this stuff, because that’s all between them and God. I’m not going to be that moral compass for him;” “I wouldn’t want to be married to him, but other than that…;” “One of the worst presidents we’ve had in recent times was probably Carter, and he was one of the most moral presidents…


    https://www.conservativehome.com/international/2018/03/lord-ashcroft-we-didnt-elect-him-to-be-a-saint-we-elected-him-to-be-a-leader-my-latest-american-focus-groups.html

    Trump's problem is that he's not winning new recruits. No-one who didn't vote for him in 2016 will vote for him now. Meanwhile he has lost a chunk of his previous support. While most of his support is steady, even a small loss will mean he loses next time, given the narrowness of the result. So Trump will lose unless something changes before 2020. Here the signs are a little positive for him. He seems to have stabilised his falling popularity ratings despite the increasing chaos of his administration. The economy is looking good, which always helps and incumbent president.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    He’s an adman bigging up his data-science firm. There are lots of them.

    Yes, but he worked for Trump and Trump won. We cannot allow for the possibility that people voted for Trump of their own free will. They must have been tricked.

    Yes, I see. An evil genius able to manipulate public opinion with a few ads is a much more comforting idea.

    We also think the data science is a cover. Earlier this month he was caught on camera trying to sell his operation to some new clients. He was boasting about honeytraps and talking of sending some Ukrainian girls around to a rival candidate’s house.


    https://www.ft.com/content/211b9f42-2dca-11e8-a34a-7e7563b0b0f4

    More people voted for Hillary. And Trump won.
    More people voted Labour than Conservative in 1951, but the Conservatives won. Like Trump, they got votes where they needed them.
    Same as more people voted for Heath in February 1974 but Wilson won most seats
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,584

    Fact of the day: engineering giant Isambard Kingdom Brunel was barely five feet tall....

    One of the great unremarked prejudices is that against short people. Tall people earn more, are promoted more and even are elected more.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    I notice Deutsche Bank's share price is looking rather sickly again:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/shares/5/113190/twelve_month.stm
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,021

    Fact of the day: engineering giant Isambard Kingdom Brunel was barely five feet tall....

    One of the great unremarked prejudices is that against short people. Tall people earn more, are promoted more and even are elected more.
    There is quite a strong correlation of height and social class. There is probably both a hightest element as well as a social class element to this.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    FF43 said:

    Ashcroft in America:

    In our groups, “buyers’ remorse” was confined to those who had voted mainly against Hillary Clinton, rather than for Trump. Across the country, this amounts to a significant chunk of the electorate, as we found during the campaign, and one that could make a big difference given how narrowly he won some states.

    But we found that those who had voted enthusiastically for Trump were still on board – often citing the economy and the stock market as evidence of his success – and were prepared to overlook his private conduct, however regrettable they found it. Stormy Daniels, an “adult actress” (as some in our groups delicately called her) claims she was paid $130,000 to keep quiet about an affair she had with Trump in 2006, but even our God-fearing Southern voters were unbothered.

    “I want someone to work on our economy and protect our shores. I don’t care about the rest of this stuff, because that’s all between them and God. I’m not going to be that moral compass for him;” “I wouldn’t want to be married to him, but other than that…;” “One of the worst presidents we’ve had in recent times was probably Carter, and he was one of the most moral presidents…


    https://www.conservativehome.com/international/2018/03/lord-ashcroft-we-didnt-elect-him-to-be-a-saint-we-elected-him-to-be-a-leader-my-latest-american-focus-groups.html

    Trump's problem is that he's not winning new recruits. No-one who didn't vote for him in 2016 will vote for him now. Meanwhile he has lost a chunk of his previous support. While most of his support is steady, even a small loss will mean he loses next time, given the narrowness of the result. So Trump will lose unless something changes before 2020. Here the signs are a little positive for him. He seems to have stabilised his falling popularity ratings despite the increasing chaos of his administration. The economy is looking good, which always helps and incumbent president.
    If the economy does well between now and 2020, and blue collar wages keep rising, I think he'll win additional support in the Mid West. I think that's the last potential growth area for Republicans. They've maximised support in the South and Appalachia, and they aren't coming back on the West Coast.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,801
    I know the septics love a veteran turned pol. Can anyone tell me which regiment that flag is for?

  • Sean_F said:

    FPT private schools, I probably would not send a child to one, as it seems that they're subject to a law of diminishing returns. Every year, fees go up by more than inflation to pay for ever more elaborate facilities. A much better use of money would be to move to a place where State schools are very good, and then pay for private tuition as needed.

    Its interesting how things change.

    A couple of generations ago school fees were paid to greatly improve the chance that children would be able to go to university, which was free.

    Now a university education is much more easily achieved but its now extremely expensive.
    I was the last year that had his university fees paid by the taxpayer, they also chipped in with a grant.

    My father observed that me going to university was a lot cheaper per year for him than me attending a private school.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,021

    I notice Deutsche Bank's share price is looking rather sickly again:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/shares/5/113190/twelve_month.stm

    Markets are down everywhere, FTSE down 10% on its Jan peak now.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,870
    edited March 23
    Interesting backgrounder on Vladimir Putin and how the tensions between the autocrat and the kleptocracy are affecting the succession. https://www.eurozine.com/tale-two-putins/

    The kleptocracy dislike Putin's foreign adventurism because it gets in the way of them grabbing and keeping the country's resources, but at the same time they are beholden to the autocrat.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    HYUFD said:

    Ashcroft in America:

    In our groups, “buyers’ remorse” was confined to those who had voted mainly against Hillary Clinton, rather than for Trump. Across the country, this amounts to a significant chunk of the electorate, as we found during the campaign, and one that could make a big difference given how narrowly he won some states.

    But we found that those who had voted enthusiastically for Trump were still on board – often citing the economy and the stock market as evidence of his success – and were prepared to overlook his private conduct, however regrettable they found it. Stormy Daniels, an “adult actress” (as some in our groups delicately called her) claims she was paid $130,000 to keep quiet about an affair she had with Trump in 2006, but even our God-fearing Southern voters were unbothered.

    “I want someone to work on our economy and protect our shores. I don’t care about the rest of this stuff, because that’s all between them and God. I’m not going to be that moral compass for him;” “I wouldn’t want to be married to him, but other than that…;” “One of the worst presidents we’ve had in recent times was probably Carter, and he was one of the most moral presidents…


    https://www.conservativehome.com/international/2018/03/lord-ashcroft-we-didnt-elect-him-to-be-a-saint-we-elected-him-to-be-a-leader-my-latest-american-focus-groups.html

    Confirms that Biden or even Sanders could beat Trump but Hillarylite e.g. Gilibrand, Harris and Warren, likely would not
    I think that's somewhat sexist; all those cited negatively are female, but I'm pretty sure they haven't the baggage that Hillary had.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,021

    So is Vince overdue for his Werthers Originals and Shackleton's high seat chair ?

    ' Lib Dems embarrassed as EU leaders deny Brexit statement '

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/22/second-brexit-referendum-eight-eu-pms-deny-backing-liberal-democrats

    Unless LibDem rivals want to use this to unseat Cable, who will care or even notice? File it under stuff to be revisited if the LibDems flop in the locals.
    I think the autumn conference will be Vince's swansong.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    FF43 said:



    Trump's problem is that he's not winning new recruits. No-one who didn't vote for him in 2016 will vote for him now. Meanwhile he has lost a chunk of his previous support. While most of his support is steady, even a small loss will mean he loses next time, given the narrowness of the result. So Trump will lose unless something changes before 2020. Here the signs are a little positive for him. He seems to have stabilised his falling popularity ratings despite the increasing chaos of his administration. The economy is looking good, which always helps and incumbent president.

    And his key voter base is from a declining demographic. Every year that passes, working class whites decline as a proportion of the US electorate. The anti-Trump vote is very motivated. On the economy, the risk for Trump is that it peaks too soon. We haven't had a global downturn since 2008 so there's a fair chance of another in the next year or two.
  • I know the septics love a veteran turned pol. Can anyone tell me which regiment that flag is for?

    Looks like the regimental flag for The 3rd Foot and Mouth Regiment (The Devils in Skirts)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    edited March 23

    HYUFD said:

    Ashcroft in America:

    In our groups, “buyers’ remorse” was confined to those who had voted mainly against Hillary Clinton, rather than for Trump. Across the country, this amounts to a significant chunk of the electorate, as we found during the campaign, and one that could make a big difference given how narrowly he won some states.

    But we found that those who had voted enthusiastically for Trump were still on board – often citing the economy and the stock market as evidence of his success – and were prepared to overlook his private conduct, however regrettable they found it. Stormy Daniels, an “adult actress” (as some in our groups delicately called her) claims she was paid $130,000 to keep quiet about an affair she had with Trump in 2006, but even our God-fearing Southern voters were unbothered.

    “I want someone to work on our economy and protect our shores. I don’t care about the rest of this stuff, because that’s all between them and God. I’m not going to be that moral compass for him;” “I wouldn’t want to be married to him, but other than that…;” “One of the worst presidents we’ve had in recent times was probably Carter, and he was one of the most moral presidents…


    https://www.conservativehome.com/international/2018/03/lord-ashcroft-we-didnt-elect-him-to-be-a-saint-we-elected-him-to-be-a-leader-my-latest-american-focus-groups.html

    Confirms that Biden or even Sanders could beat Trump but Hillarylite e.g. Gilibrand, Harris and Warren, likely would not
    I think that's somewhat sexist; all those cited negatively are female, but I'm pretty sure they haven't the baggage that Hillary had.
    All are seen as coastal elitist liberals even without emailgate and all poll no better than Hillary unlike Biden and Sanders.

    That does not mean women can't win the presidency but at moment the best bets are Republicans like Nikki Haley or Michelle Obama neither of whom are likely to run in 2020
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617



    I was the last year that had his university fees paid by the taxpayer, they also chipped in with a grant.

    My father observed that me going to university was a lot cheaper per year for him than me attending a private school.

    I am, I think, 2-3 years older than you. By that time the grants were very strongly means tested. Given your background you must have erm bent the rules a bit if you got much of a grant.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,385
    By-election result...

    Skipton Town Council, Skipton North:

    Independent (Barrett) 333
    Conservative (Broadhead) 244
    Labour (Kettu) 195
    Green (Nash) 156

    Turnout 32%

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ashcroft in America:

    In our groups, “buyers’ remorse” was confined to those who had voted mainly against Hillary Clinton, rather than for Trump. Across the country, this amounts to a significant chunk of the electorate, as we found during the campaign, and one that could make a big difference given how narrowly he won some states.

    But we found that those who had voted enthusiastically for Trump were still on board – often citing the economy and the stock market as evidence of his success – and were prepared to overlook his private conduct, however regrettable they found it. Stormy Daniels, an “adult actress” (as some in our groups delicately called her) claims she was paid $130,000 to keep quiet about an affair she had with Trump in 2006, but even our God-fearing Southern voters were unbothered.

    “I want someone to work on our economy and protect our shores. I don’t care about the rest of this stuff, because that’s all between them and God. I’m not going to be that moral compass for him;” “I wouldn’t want to be married to him, but other than that…;” “One of the worst presidents we’ve had in recent times was probably Carter, and he was one of the most moral presidents…


    https://www.conservativehome.com/international/2018/03/lord-ashcroft-we-didnt-elect-him-to-be-a-saint-we-elected-him-to-be-a-leader-my-latest-american-focus-groups.html

    Confirms that Biden or even Sanders could beat Trump but Hillarylite e.g. Gilibrand, Harris and Warren, likely would not
    I think that's somewhat sexist; all those cited negatively are female, but I'm pretty sure they haven't the baggage that Hillary had.
    All are seen as coastal elitist liberals even without emailgate and all poll no better than Hillary unlike Biden and Sanders.

    That does not mean women can't win the presidency but at moment the best bets are Republicans like Nikki Haley or Michelle Obama neither of whom are likely to run in 2020
    Republicans like ..... Michelle Obama?????????
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,801
    They obviously need help from Cambridge Analytica with their targetting.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,021

    I know the septics love a veteran turned pol. Can anyone tell me which regiment that flag is for?

    Seeing that puts me in mind of this classic line "I hate Illinois Nazis" though perhaps the car driving at a crowd has not aged so well:

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    Sean_F said:

    FPT private schools, I probably would not send a child to one, as it seems that they're subject to a law of diminishing returns. Every year, fees go up by more than inflation to pay for ever more elaborate facilities. A much better use of money would be to move to a place where State schools are very good, and then pay for private tuition as needed.

    If your children go to a comprehensive or academy in a leafy suburb, or a C of E School or a grammar school or a free school they will probably do as well as if they went to a private school and save a lot of money.

    Even at a tough inner city state school or comprehensive in a deprived seaside town if you are motivated you can still do OK
  • HHemmelig said:



    I was the last year that had his university fees paid by the taxpayer, they also chipped in with a grant.

    My father observed that me going to university was a lot cheaper per year for him than me attending a private school.

    I am, I think, 2-3 years older than you. By that time the grants were very strongly means tested. Given your background you must have erm bent the rules a bit if you got much of a grant.
    Sheffield Council were very generous, plus it wasn't the full grant, but it was better than nothing.

    Plus the salary of an NHS Doctor wasn't quite as high in 1997 as it is today.

    Probably one of the few things Blair and Brown got right, massively increasing NHS salaries between 1997 and 2010.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,290

    Fact of the day: engineering giant Isambard Kingdom Brunel was barely five feet tall....

    It seems an odd thing for the article too hang its stovepipe hat on, but I guess all the usual Brunel hooks are well known.

    More interesting IMV is his attitude to apprentices, which AFAICR is at odds with those of his compatriots. He hated taking on apprentices, and would only do so when forced.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,545
    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    He’s an adman bigging up his data-science firm. There are lots of them.

    Yes, but he worked for Trump and Trump won. We cannot allow for the possibility that people voted for Trump of their own free will. They must have been tricked.

    Yes, I see. An evil genius able to manipulate public opinion with a few ads is a much more comforting idea.

    We also think the data science is a cover. Earlier this month he was caught on camera trying to sell his operation to some new clients. He was boasting about honeytraps and talking of sending some Ukrainian girls around to a rival candidate’s house.


    https://www.ft.com/content/211b9f42-2dca-11e8-a34a-7e7563b0b0f4

    More people voted for Hillary. And Trump won.
    More people voted Labour than Conservative in 1951, but the Conservatives won. Like Trump, they got votes where they needed them.
    Yes, that's the point. It's how he managed his vote so efficiently that's the interesting question.
  • They obviously need help from Cambridge Analytica with their targetting.
    This did make me chuckle. One of the replies to those tweets.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,801
    Foxy said:

    I know the septics love a veteran turned pol. Can anyone tell me which regiment that flag is for?

    Seeing that puts me in mind of this classic line "I hate Illinois Nazis" though perhaps the car driving at a crowd has not aged so well:

    Ha, yep, I'd forgotten about that.

    Of course nowadays those chaps in ersatz SA uniforms waving swastikas would consider it a vile slur to be called Nazis, and the dirty protestors ARE THE REAL NAZIS!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,332

    So the Dems should take the House in November ?

    Anything less would be a disappointment.
  • rkrkrk said:

    So the Dems should take the House in November ?

    Anything less would be a disappointment.
    I'm more convinced than ever in November the Dems will take the House but make net losses in the Senate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    edited March 23

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ashcroft in America:

    In our groups, “buyers’ remorse” was confined to those who had voted mainly against Hillary Clinton, rather than for Trump. Across the country, this amounts to a significant chunk of the electorate, as we found during the campaign, and one that could make a big difference given how narrowly he won some states.

    But we found that those who had voted enthusiastically for Trump were still on board – often citing the economy and the stock market as evidence of his success – and were prepared to overlook his private conduct, however regrettable they found it. Stormy Daniels, an “adult actress” (as some in our groups delicately called her) claims she was paid $130,000 to keep quiet about an affair she had with Trump in 2006, but even our God-fearing Southern voters were unbothered.

    “I want someone to work on our economy and protect our shores. I don’t care about the rest of this stuff, because that’s all between them and God. I’m not going to be that moral compass for him;” “I wouldn’t want to be married to him, but other than that…;” “One of the worst presidents we’ve had in recent times was probably Carter, and he was one of the most moral presidents…


    https://www.conservativehome.com/international/2018/03/lord-ashcroft-we-didnt-elect-him-to-be-a-saint-we-elected-him-to-be-a-leader-my-latest-american-focus-groups.html

    Confirms that Biden or even Sanders could beat Trump but Hillarylite e.g. Gilibrand, Harris and Warren, likely would not
    I think that's somewhat sexist; all those cited negatively are female, but I'm pretty sure they haven't the baggage that Hillary had.
    All are seen as coastal elitist liberals even without emailgate and all poll no better than Hillary unlike Biden and Sanders.

    That does not mean women can't win the presidency but at moment the best bets are Republicans like Nikki Haley or Michelle Obama neither of whom are likely to run in 2020
    Republicans like ..... Michelle Obama?????????
    No like Nikki Haley I said, I would have said 'and Michelle Obama' had I included her in that group
  • Foxy said:

    I know the septics love a veteran turned pol. Can anyone tell me which regiment that flag is for?

    Seeing that puts me in mind of this classic line "I hate Illinois Nazis" though perhaps the car driving at a crowd has not aged so well:

    Ha, yep, I'd forgotten about that.

    Of course nowadays those chaps in ersatz SA uniforms waving swastikas would consider it a vile slur to be called Nazis, and the dirty protestors ARE THE REAL NAZIS!
    A few months ago these chaps were arguing the the Nazis were lefties. Apparently The National Socialist German Workers' Party was a big clue.

    It was pointed out to them if we were using that logic then North Korea must be a Democratic People's Republic because that's what they call themselves.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,332
    edited March 23

    rkrkrk said:

    So the Dems should take the House in November ?

    Anything less would be a disappointment.
    I'm more convinced than ever in November the Dems will take the House but make net losses in the Senate.
    I think the Dems will probably stand still/gain/lose 1 only in the Senate. Lose Heitkamp or Tester and gain in NV or AZ.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,290
    Off-topic:

    Whilst someone made the mistake of mentioning Brunel, it's interesting to read the obituaries from the time. He wasn't necessarily held in the same regard then as he is now.

    The Engineer's obituary was particularly harsh.
    https://www.theengineer.co.uk/issues/sept-2012-online/september-1859-brunels-obituary/

    Perhaps there were too many people who'd lost money on some of his more fanciful projects?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Betting Post

    Pre-qualifying article is now up, containing literally three tips.

    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/03/australia-pre-qualifying-2018.html

    Backed Red Bull for the Constructors' at 6.2 (Betfair Exchange), Raikkonen for fastest lap at 15 (Ladbrokes, with boost, it's 13 without) and no Safety Car (Ladbrokes, 3.75 or 3.9 depending on boost or not) as the chances of rain have diminished.

    It's looking closer than expected at the sharp end, at this early stage. If that's the case, it's advantage Red Bull as they have the best driver pairing.

    Raikkonen likes his fastest laps and got it in Oz last year. Plus, with engine modes, it's probably between Mercedes and Ferrari.

    Checked the last eight or so races and about half seem to have had a safety car. So 3.9 on there not being one looks nice.

    Anyway, more explanation etc as well as the exciting and not at all intensely stupid idea of the 'action lap' are on my blog. So give it a read and marvel at the wonders therein.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,188
    *files under value loser*
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    Big win for the Dems and it will have a significant number of Housemen sweating November for the GOP. They will be looking at the ongoing shambles and revolving door in the Whitehouse with something like despair.

    McMaster is a real loss and Bolton is just a little bit scary. The theory that, "its the economy, stupid" is being tested to its very limits in the US.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    edited March 23
    *Lights the blue touch paper and heads into a meeting*

    Owen Smith has broken ranks with Jeremy Corbyn to reopen the question of whether Brexit is “the right choice for the country” – and urge Labour to offer the public a referendum on the final deal.

    The shadow Northern Ireland secretary, who challenged Corbyn for his party’s leadership in 2016, was brought onto the Labour frontbench after last year’s general election.

    He has argued strongly for Labour to back a customs union with the EU27, something that has now become party policy – but in an article for the Guardian, Smith says his party can only “serve democracy”, by recommending a poll on the Brexit deal.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/23/owen-smith-calls-for-public-poll-on-final-brexit-deal?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • DavidL said:

    Big win for the Dems and it will have a significant number of Housemen sweating November for the GOP. They will be looking at the ongoing shambles and revolving door in the Whitehouse with something like despair.

    McMaster is a real loss and Bolton is just a little bit scary. The theory that, "its the economy, stupid" is being tested to its very limits in the US.

    It might lead to the amusing situation of Trump comparing himself to Obama and Clinton (William J.)

    2 years after being elected POTUS their parties got walloped in the House, but didn't stop them from winning re-election.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,606
    FF43 said:

    Interesting backgrounder on Vladimir Putin and how the tensions between the autocrat and the kleptocracy are affecting the succession. https://www.eurozine.com/tale-two-putins/

    The kleptocracy dislike Putin's foreign adventurism because it gets in the way of them grabbing and keeping the country's resources, but at the same time they are beholden to the autocrat.

    That's an excellent, balanced piece.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617

    HHemmelig said:



    I was the last year that had his university fees paid by the taxpayer, they also chipped in with a grant.

    My father observed that me going to university was a lot cheaper per year for him than me attending a private school.

    I am, I think, 2-3 years older than you. By that time the grants were very strongly means tested. Given your background you must have erm bent the rules a bit if you got much of a grant.
    Sheffield Council were very generous, plus it wasn't the full grant, but it was better than nothing.

    Plus the salary of an NHS Doctor wasn't quite as high in 1997 as it is today.

    Probably one of the few things Blair and Brown got right, massively increasing NHS salaries between 1997 and 2010.
    I went to university in 1995 and my parents earned a pretty average income, I got only about half the full grant. And the proportion was lowered each subsequent year. Interesting to see that it varied by council.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,101

    *Lights the blue touch paper and heads into a meeting*

    Owen Smith has broken ranks with Jeremy Corbyn to reopen the question of whether Brexit is “the right choice for the country” – and urge Labour to offer the public a referendum on the final deal.

    The shadow Northern Ireland secretary, who challenged Corbyn for his party’s leadership in 2016, was brought onto the Labour frontbench after last year’s general election.

    He has argued strongly for Labour to back a customs union with the EU27, something that has now become party policy – but in an article for the Guardian, Smith says his party can only “serve democracy”, by recommending a poll on the Brexit deal.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/23/owen-smith-calls-for-public-poll-on-final-brexit-deal?CMP=share_btn_tw

    the country has a vote on whether to accept the terms

    Or what?

    I doubt the EC will approve a question 'do you accept the terms negotiated by HMG' without being clear what 'No' would mean.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    F1: Ricciardo has a three place grid penalty, for seemingly odd reasons:
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,242
    edited March 23
    HHemmelig said:

    HHemmelig said:



    I was the last year that had his university fees paid by the taxpayer, they also chipped in with a grant.

    My father observed that me going to university was a lot cheaper per year for him than me attending a private school.

    I am, I think, 2-3 years older than you. By that time the grants were very strongly means tested. Given your background you must have erm bent the rules a bit if you got much of a grant.
    Sheffield Council were very generous, plus it wasn't the full grant, but it was better than nothing.

    Plus the salary of an NHS Doctor wasn't quite as high in 1997 as it is today.

    Probably one of the few things Blair and Brown got right, massively increasing NHS salaries between 1997 and 2010.
    I went to university in 1995 and my parents earned a pretty average income, I got only about half the full grant. And the proportion was lowered each subsequent year. Interesting to see that it varied by council.
    Up until 1983-4 there was a minimum grant that you got even if your parents were millionaires (I know because I was in the last cohort to receive it although I hasten to add my parents weren't millionaires by a long way).

    Edit: of course in those days tuition fees were paid regardless, at least to undergraduates.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,188

    *Lights the blue touch paper and heads into a meeting*

    Owen Smith has broken ranks with Jeremy Corbyn to reopen the question of whether Brexit is “the right choice for the country” – and urge Labour to offer the public a referendum on the final deal.

    The shadow Northern Ireland secretary, who challenged Corbyn for his party’s leadership in 2016, was brought onto the Labour frontbench after last year’s general election.

    He has argued strongly for Labour to back a customs union with the EU27, something that has now become party policy – but in an article for the Guardian, Smith says his party can only “serve democracy”, by recommending a poll on the Brexit deal.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/23/owen-smith-calls-for-public-poll-on-final-brexit-deal?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Owen who?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    Foxy said:

    So is Vince overdue for his Werthers Originals and Shackleton's high seat chair ?

    ' Lib Dems embarrassed as EU leaders deny Brexit statement '

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/22/second-brexit-referendum-eight-eu-pms-deny-backing-liberal-democrats

    Unless LibDem rivals want to use this to unseat Cable, who will care or even notice? File it under stuff to be revisited if the LibDems flop in the locals.
    I think the autumn conference will be Vince's swansong.
    Better hope in the meantime he is a Mute Swan - cuz just when the LibDems thought things couldn't get any worse, along comes their Black Swan.....

  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617

    Off-topic:

    Whilst someone made the mistake of mentioning Brunel, it's interesting to read the obituaries from the time. He wasn't necessarily held in the same regard then as he is now.

    The Engineer's obituary was particularly harsh.
    https://www.theengineer.co.uk/issues/sept-2012-online/september-1859-brunels-obituary/

    Perhaps there were too many people who'd lost money on some of his more fanciful projects?

    Brunel was ahead of his time, and such people are often not fully appreciated until decades after their death.

    We would have a much better rail system today if Brunel's broad gauge, generous loading gauge and dislike of gradients and curves had been adopted system wide.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827

    FF43 said:

    Interesting backgrounder on Vladimir Putin and how the tensions between the autocrat and the kleptocracy are affecting the succession. https://www.eurozine.com/tale-two-putins/

    The kleptocracy dislike Putin's foreign adventurism because it gets in the way of them grabbing and keeping the country's resources, but at the same time they are beholden to the autocrat.

    That's an excellent, balanced piece.
    Makes our agitation about the misstatements and cock ups of our politicians on both sides of the house look quite trivial doesn't it? We are indeed fortunate not to live under such a system.
  • This is something you'd expect in Mugabe's Zimbabwe.

    Scotland Yard has admitted Special Branch officers passed information to a controversial network that blacklisted construction workers.

    It follows a six-year battle to find out if the Metropolitan Police supplied the intelligence on trade unionists.

    The force says its investigation had "proven" the allegation, which will be investigated by a public inquiry.

    Workers who say they were unfairly barred from jobs have already received millions of pounds in compensation.

    In 2016, the union Unite reached a settlement with construction firms that resulted in 256 workers sharing more than £10m in compensation.

    At the heart of the claims, which were made by hundreds of workers, was evidence that firms accessed a "blacklist" that logged workers' trade union activities.

    The list was used by dozens of construction firms to vet those applying for work on building sites.

    When the files were found to contain details of individual's political activities, the workers demanded that Scotland Yard disclose whether undercover police had colluded in supplying intelligence.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43507728
  • Given the appalling weather forecast in Auckland this weekend, should I be backing the draw at 3.65.

    Monday's forecast looks good, so it is effectively betting on England being able to bat out a day.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,332

    This is something you'd expect in Mugabe's Zimbabwe.

    Scotland Yard has admitted Special Branch officers passed information to a controversial network that blacklisted construction workers.

    It follows a six-year battle to find out if the Metropolitan Police supplied the intelligence on trade unionists.

    The force says its investigation had "proven" the allegation, which will be investigated by a public inquiry.

    Workers who say they were unfairly barred from jobs have already received millions of pounds in compensation.

    In 2016, the union Unite reached a settlement with construction firms that resulted in 256 workers sharing more than £10m in compensation.

    At the heart of the claims, which were made by hundreds of workers, was evidence that firms accessed a "blacklist" that logged workers' trade union activities.

    The list was used by dozens of construction firms to vet those applying for work on building sites.

    When the files were found to contain details of individual's political activities, the workers demanded that Scotland Yard disclose whether undercover police had colluded in supplying intelligence.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43507728

    Shameful - you're absolutely right that this sounds more like african dictator behaviour than rule of law in the UK....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244
    FPT
    The problem with grammar schools is that parents can buy their kids into them through the use of tutors - that also favours the less bright kids of the well-off...

    This is true only to an extent - the advantage of tutoring is somewhere around 20-30% increase in chances of admission, and some grammar schools are now changing their entrance exams to significantly reduce any benefit from tutoring.
    The single most effective thing parents can do for their kids is to read to them for an hour every night when they are young...

    In any event, I tend to believe that quality and choice of primary level education is more important for children's educational chances than secondary.

    However, grammar schools, taking the ablest, do often have very little value left to add. An A* student gets an A*, value added 0. An E grade student gets a C, value added 2. That is perhaps another point to bear in mind....

    But 'value added' is measured only in terms of grades, which leaves rather a lot out of the picture.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,290

    F1: Ricciardo has a three place grid penalty, for seemingly odd reasons:

    I understand that's harsh, but surely it;s the sort of rule we don't want drivers thinking they can break for whatever reason?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244

    Oh and primus inter pares

    And there I was thinking that you were the PB nonpareil...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. Eagles, that sounds disgraceful.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,609

    F1: Ricciardo has a three place grid penalty, for seemingly odd reasons:
    ttps://twitter.com/tedkravitz/status/977120664254590976

    That seems awfully harsh, but the rules about slowing down for red flags are there for good reason. I doubt the stewards have much discretion in awarding the penalty, as the offence was a matter of fact - the clock said he didn’t slow down enough.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151

    Given the appalling weather forecast in Auckland this weekend, should I be backing the draw at 3.65.

    Monday's forecast looks good, so it is effectively betting on England being able to bat out a day.

    At the moment, batting out a session is an ask....
  • Nigelb said:

    Oh and primus inter pares

    And there I was thinking that you were the PB nonpareil...
    That's Robert, he's PB's nonpareil.
  • Given the appalling weather forecast in Auckland this weekend, should I be backing the draw at 3.65.

    Monday's forecast looks good, so it is effectively betting on England being able to bat out a day.

    At the moment, batting out a session is an ask....
    I'm working on the assumption that they can't bad as badly as last time and will want to silence their critics.

    They'll go all Brigadier Block.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,290
    HHemmelig said:

    Off-topic:

    Whilst someone made the mistake of mentioning Brunel, it's interesting to read the obituaries from the time. He wasn't necessarily held in the same regard then as he is now.

    The Engineer's obituary was particularly harsh.
    https://www.theengineer.co.uk/issues/sept-2012-online/september-1859-brunels-obituary/

    Perhaps there were too many people who'd lost money on some of his more fanciful projects?

    Brunel was ahead of his time, and such people are often not fully appreciated until decades after their death.

    We would have a much better rail system today if Brunel's broad gauge, generous loading gauge and dislike of gradients and curves had been adopted system wide.
    Define 'better'.

    The extra costs of broad gauge (and it was much more expensive to construct) might have stopped many lines being built. This may also have prevented the railway mania, but left many places unattached to the railway network and hence stifled the industrial revolution. Or it could have led to lots of 'narrow' (i.e. standard) gauge lines different to the main line network, and lots of interchanges like Waterhouses on the Leek line.

    It's an interesting counterfactual.

    I'd alter your last line to:
    "Brunel was ahead of his time, and such people are often not fully appreciated until decades after the people whose money they lost have died." :)

    (Though that's unfair as he was often liked by his compatriots, as the completion of the Clifton suspension bridge shows)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827

    Given the appalling weather forecast in Auckland this weekend, should I be backing the draw at 3.65.

    Monday's forecast looks good, so it is effectively betting on England being able to bat out a day.

    What, like 90 overs? I suppose its possible, if the ball doesn't swing or spin.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Explains why we’re leaving.

    How frightfully foreign.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151

    Given the appalling weather forecast in Auckland this weekend, should I be backing the draw at 3.65.

    Monday's forecast looks good, so it is effectively betting on England being able to bat out a day.

    At the moment, batting out a session is an ask....
    I'm working on the assumption that they can't bad as badly as last time and will want to silence their critics.

    They'll go all Brigadier Block.
    Yet you seem immune to that line of argument when it is suggested that Theresa May can't run an election campaign as badly as last time and will want to silence her critics.... :lol:
  • Explains why we’re leaving.

    How frightfully foreign.
    You do know what a Prime Minister has to do when the Queen asks them to become PM?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,337

    *Lights the blue touch paper and heads into a meeting*

    Owen Smith has broken ranks with Jeremy Corbyn to reopen the question of whether Brexit is “the right choice for the country” – and urge Labour to offer the public a referendum on the final deal.

    The shadow Northern Ireland secretary, who challenged Corbyn for his party’s leadership in 2016, was brought onto the Labour frontbench after last year’s general election.

    He has argued strongly for Labour to back a customs union with the EU27, something that has now become party policy – but in an article for the Guardian, Smith says his party can only “serve democracy”, by recommending a poll on the Brexit deal.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/23/owen-smith-calls-for-public-poll-on-final-brexit-deal?CMP=share_btn_tw

    I think this is rather more important:

    https://order-order.com/2018/03/23/new-poll-shows-overwhelming-majority-want-get-brexit/

    57% to 22% nationally. Only 10% of Tory voters disagree.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 141
    DavidL said:

    Given the appalling weather forecast in Auckland this weekend, should I be backing the draw at 3.65.

    Monday's forecast looks good, so it is effectively betting on England being able to bat out a day.

    What, like 90 overs? I suppose its possible, if the ball doesn't swing or spin.
    Or travel the full length of the pitch from the bowler's arm to the batsman more than 8 times.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    Explains why we’re leaving.

    How frightfully foreign.
    You do know what a Prime Minister has to do when the Queen asks them to become PM?
    That’s different, as well constitutional.

    This is day-to-day Frenchness.

    You applaud Frenchness?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. Jessop, and Mr. Sandpit, aye, I suppose that is fair enough. It's just a shame that we aren't even at third practice of the first race and we're already discussing grid penalties.

    If either of you missed it, I posted my pre-qualifying ramble and some betting thoughts above. And even if you both saw it, that still remains the case.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,426

    *files under value loser*

    Join the club.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,977
    RoyalBlue said:

    *Lights the blue touch paper and heads into a meeting*

    Owen Smith has broken ranks with Jeremy Corbyn to reopen the question of whether Brexit is “the right choice for the country” – and urge Labour to offer the public a referendum on the final deal.

    The shadow Northern Ireland secretary, who challenged Corbyn for his party’s leadership in 2016, was brought onto the Labour frontbench after last year’s general election.

    He has argued strongly for Labour to back a customs union with the EU27, something that has now become party policy – but in an article for the Guardian, Smith says his party can only “serve democracy”, by recommending a poll on the Brexit deal.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/23/owen-smith-calls-for-public-poll-on-final-brexit-deal?CMP=share_btn_tw

    I think this is rather more important:

    https://order-order.com/2018/03/23/new-poll-shows-overwhelming-majority-want-get-brexit/

    57% to 22% nationally. Only 10% of Tory voters disagree.
    That's a poll by Gisela Stuart's propaganda outfit with the most useless question imaginable:

    The government should get on with implementing the result of the referendum to take Britain out of the EU and in doing so take back control of our borders, laws, money and trade”.

    The other options aren't given by Guido but will obviously be very tendentious.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,545

    Explains why we’re leaving.

    How frightfully foreign.
    You do know what a Prime Minister has to do when the Queen asks them to become PM?
    That’s different, as well constitutional.

    This is day-to-day Frenchness.

    You applaud Frenchness?
    To be clear that is not a French kiss. A French kiss would be weird.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,101

    Explains why we’re leaving.

    How frightfully foreign.
    You do know what a Prime Minister has to do when the Queen asks them to become PM?
    Do you?

    In his autobiography, John Major said: "The phrase is traditional and outdated - the Queen's hand is not kissed."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1555863/Meeting-with-Queen-shorn-of-formalities.html
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,689
    edited March 23
    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    He’s an adman bigging up his data-science firm. There are lots of them.

    Yes, but he worked for Trump and Trump won. We cannot allow for the possibility that people voted for Trump of their own free will. They must have been tricked.

    Yes, I see. An evil genius able to manipulate public opinion with a few ads is a much more comforting idea.

    We also think the data science is a cover. Earlier this month he was caught on camera trying to sell his operation to some new clients. He was boasting about honeytraps and talking of sending some Ukrainian girls around to a rival candidate’s house.


    https://www.ft.com/content/211b9f42-2dca-11e8-a34a-7e7563b0b0f4

    More people voted for Hillary. And Trump won.
    More people voted Labour than Conservative in 1951, but the Conservatives won. Like Trump, they got votes where they needed them.
    Yes, that's the point. It's how he managed his vote so efficiently that's the interesting question.
    It was a two-horse race, so the other way to look at the same data is to ask how Hillary managed her vote so inefficiently.

    She managed to bollocks up the primary race against Obama in the same way, and IIRC there were some reports that she was trying to run up the popular vote margin by spending money in non-swing states to avoid claims that her inevitable victory was illegitimate, so I'd be more inclined to look at it from that end.
  • Explains why we’re leaving.

    How frightfully foreign.
    You do know what a Prime Minister has to do when the Queen asks them to become PM?
    That’s different, as well constitutional.

    This is day-to-day Frenchness.

    You applaud Frenchness?
    Here's that well known Francophile Denis Thatcher greeting an American.

    It is just good diplomatic manners.

    image
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    RoyalBlue said:

    *Lights the blue touch paper and heads into a meeting*

    Owen Smith has broken ranks with Jeremy Corbyn to reopen the question of whether Brexit is “the right choice for the country” – and urge Labour to offer the public a referendum on the final deal.

    The shadow Northern Ireland secretary, who challenged Corbyn for his party’s leadership in 2016, was brought onto the Labour frontbench after last year’s general election.

    He has argued strongly for Labour to back a customs union with the EU27, something that has now become party policy – but in an article for the Guardian, Smith says his party can only “serve democracy”, by recommending a poll on the Brexit deal.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/23/owen-smith-calls-for-public-poll-on-final-brexit-deal?CMP=share_btn_tw

    I think this is rather more important:

    https://order-order.com/2018/03/23/new-poll-shows-overwhelming-majority-want-get-brexit/

    57% to 22% nationally. Only 10% of Tory voters disagree.
    Agree Disagree Don't know

    Con

    78% 10% 12%

    Lab

    40% 36% 24%

    LD

    44% 34% 22%

    A pluralitity in ALL parties just want to get on with Brexit..... Are you listening Keir, Tony, Chukka, Vince, Anna?
This discussion has been closed.